205 FXUS61 KRNK 150603 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 203 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes, wind gusts slightly lowered Friday-Saturday. Chance of showers increased Friday night. Aviation discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frontal boundary provides shower/few storm chances today. 2) Strong front late Friday to bring blustery winds and much cooler temperatures going into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Frontal boundary provides shower/few storm chances today. A backdoor front drops south to the VA/NC border today with showers/few storms prevalent mainly north of U.S. 460 with less chances further south into NC. This front will bring shift in the winds to the northeast/east north of it should keep cloud cover around through most of the day, with low clouds in place into this evening. This will create a dichotomy on highs with 60s north of I-64 and possibly as far south as ROA/LYH to mid 80s in the NC Piedmont. Front lifts north tonight as a warm front with showers fading except toward WV/Alleghany of VA. Key Message 2: Strong front late Friday to bring blustery winds and much cooler temperatures going into the weekend. We quickly transition out of the zonal flow with the approach of a high amplitude upper trough and sharp attendant sfc cold front late Friday into Saturday. Not expecting much in the form of storms with again limited instability with this system and the greater chance of showers looks to be in the west mountains. The main impacts from this front will be enhanced gradient winds kicking in for Friday night into Saturday morning and then some of the coldest air of the season ushering in. It will definitely feel like a rollercoaster of change as highs Saturday look to be mainly in the low 50s for much of the mountains and then upper 50s to low 60s for the Piedmont. Sunday morning is going to have frost/freeze concerns for much of the area with progged lows mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s for the mountains and mid to upper 30s for the Piedmont. This could again be the case for Monday morning as well. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions currently prevail across much of the region. However, showers and sub-VFR cigs are approaching the mountains and with the front driving southward today models have cigs lowering through into 12z, with good potential for IFR or lower cigs at most terminals through the rest of the period as the flow turns northeast to east. Showers will impact vsbys at times more-so across LWB this morning. BLF will likely improve back to VFR by Thursday afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... With a stalled boundary followed by a strong cold front, some sub-VFR conditions are possible Thursday night and Friday. Behind the front Friday night into Saturday morning, look for an abrupt wind shift to the northwest and gusty conditions at the surface. These stronger winds should gradually veer north and decrease through the day Saturday. Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected into Sunday and Monday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AB/DS/WP AVIATION...AB/DS/WP  190 FXUS64 KMAF 150603 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 103 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are expected through Friday across much of west Texas. A few storms may also become severe, posing a threat for mainly damaging winds and large hail this afternoon and evening. - A front Thursday night/Friday morning brings much cooler temperatures to the region through the weekend. - Thursday night/Friday morning's front also brings breezy northeasterly winds to the area. High gap winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Area radars show round #1 of convection has ended for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/CAMs suggesting round #2 commencing around 20Z or so. Latest KMAF radar bias is 0.71, suggesting the airmass is convective, as cells are still producing hail to some extent. That said, KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a PWAT of 1.75". The 100th percentile is 1.44", and the (now old) record is 1.69". With any luck, tonight will transition from a severe to hydrologic event as remnants of Hurricane Simon become better entrenched. Tonight, best chances for convection will be from the Big Bend northeast through the Western Low Rolling Plains, w/deep layer shear of 40-50 kts supporting a few supercells. MRMS precipitation estimates for the past 24 hours indicate saturated soils will continue the flood threat, as well. A 35 kt LLJ and abundant cloud cover will keep overnight minimums warm...around 15 F above climatology. Thursday, the Four Corners trough will eject into the Central Plains, only to have a secondary trough develop in its wake. This feature will quickly dig SW to the SoCal/Baja border by Thursday evening, while at the surface, a cold front begins intruding upon the region. The front, precipitation, and cloud cover will keep highs right around normal. Best rain chances will continue over the southeastern CWA, w/hopefully just flash flooding being the main concern by this times. Thursday night, w/the loss of whatever diurnal heating was to be had Thursday, the cold front will surge southward, yielding the coolest temperatures yet this Fall as lows plunge to within a degree or so of normal. This front looks strong enough for gap winds in the pass, and we've issue a watch for this. Best chances for rain will be in the Big Bend Area, where the highest moisture will reside. Flash flooding in the park and rises on the Rio Grande should be the main concerns by this time. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Northeasterly winds become breezy and temperatures plummet areawide behind Thursday night/Friday morning's front. Strong cold air advection keeps highs in the upper 50s and low 60s across west Texas and southeast New Mexico Friday afternoon. As mentioned in the Short Term, high gap winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the front through Saturday morning. The front also pushes the best rain chances (50-80%) southward towards the Davis Mountains, Big Bend, Presidio Valley, and Lower Trans-Pecos Friday morning and into the afternoon. By late Friday afternoon and early evening, winds generally begin to weaken and rain chances diminish across the area. Saturday morning will feature some of the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this season. Lows dip into the 40s for most locations, with upper 30s in the higher terrain and usual cold spots. Continued northeasterly winds keep Saturday's highs similar to Friday's, albeit a degree or two warmer. Likewise, lows Sunday morning end up a degree or two warmer overall than Saturday morning. From Sunday through at least the middle of next week, a more robust warming trend develops. Highs Sunday top out in the 60s and low 70s for most as winds veer to the south again. By Monday and Tuesday, temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s become commonplace. As far as rain goes, from Saturday through early next week most locations look to stay dry, with chances staying generally below 15%. By the middle of next week, the NBM reintroduces low (10-30%) rain chances for portions of the area as another system nears. However, differences in the timing and location of this system exist between long range models, which keeps confidence low at this time. Sprang && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Cold frontal passage expected between 8-12z for most sites with FST seeing passage later in the day. Scattered showers and storms develop with the front. Amendments will be needed based on radar trends. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 51 60 41 / 60 70 10 0 Carlsbad 81 53 63 43 / 0 10 10 0 Dryden 82 53 59 45 / 70 100 90 0 Fort Stockton 78 49 57 42 / 70 100 70 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 46 52 39 / 0 20 10 0 Hobbs 76 48 58 39 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 74 41 50 35 / 60 90 70 0 Midland Intl Airport 77 51 59 42 / 60 60 10 0 Odessa 77 51 58 42 / 60 60 10 0 Wink 80 51 61 42 / 30 50 20 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Flood Watch through Friday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...93  140 FXUS66 KSGX 150602 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1102 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Santa Ana winds expected Thursday through Saturday, with the strongest and most widespread on Friday. Additionally, moderate to major HeatRisk is expected for coastal areas. Cooler conditions will spread inland Sunday, with greater cooling and chance of showers next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... We're already seeing an offshore pressure gradient from San Diego to Tonopah, NV. As of 11 AM there were weak north to northeast winds being observed with gusts mainly 20 to 25 mph, a few local gusts to 30 mph in windier locations. For Thursday, an upper level high will develop over Northern California, with low pressure retrograding back towards Southern California. That will strengthen the offshore pressure gradient and increase winds. For Friday and Saturday, that low will remain just southwest of San Diego off the coast of northern Baja, maintaining a strong offshore pressure gradient. Winds on Thursday will be mainly out of the north/northeast, with the strongest winds on the foothills and below passes in the San Bernardino and Santa Ana mountains. Winds are expected to be strongest and most widespread Friday and they develop more of an easterly component. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index on Friday has gusts in the 80th to 90th percentile and locally into the 95th to 99th percentile. Wind gusts have the potential to exceed 65 mph in the typically windy spots like near the Cajon Pass, in wind prone canyons in the Santa Ana mountains, and in wind prone spots in the San Diego mountains. Santa Ana winds could extended to coastal areas on Friday, with a 30 to 50 percent chance of local wind gusts greater than 35 mph. Winds become weaker and easterly on Saturday, with gust 30 to 40 mph in the valleys and below passes, and gusts up to 50 mph on mountain foothills and below passes. Weaker offshore winds may continue on the coastal mountain slopes Sunday with onshore flow expected to return by Monday. The location of the upper level low to the southwest of San Diego, will help keep relative humidity elevated and could elevate chances of showers in the deserts. Right now chances are 10 percent or less, with low confidence in measurable rain. High temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees below average for the mountains and valleys with coastal areas as much as 12 to 18 degrees above average. High temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees warmer for most locations, bringing highs closer to 15 to 20 degrees above average for coastal locations. Moderate HeatRisk is expected for the coast into the western San Diego County valleys for Thursday through Saturday with Major HeatRisk for some coastal areas on Friday. Conditions will remain above average but cool a few degrees on Saturday with continued cooling west of the mountains into next week. We're monitoring the potential for precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. There remains differences in the models with the GEFS guidance trending more inside and the ECMWF showing a more westerly track. While there remains the most uncertainty in the precipitation forecast, there is higher confidence in cooler and windier conditions. && .AVIATION... 150530Z...SKC and VFR through Thursday. Areas of northeast winds gusting 15-20 kts in the mountain foothills increasing after 10Z with gusts 20-45 kts, expanding in coverage and spreading into inland valleys after 13Z. Areas of MOD-STG up/downdrafts in lee of (south and west of) mountains along with areas of LLWS where strongwinds do not surface in valleys. && .MARINE... Isolated northeast gusts could exceed 20 knots Friday into early Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .BEACHES... A prevailing southerly swell will continue most of this week, generating surf 3-6 feet with local sets to 7 feet, along with strong rip currents. Late morning high tides near 6.5 feet will continue through Thursday, producing minor coastal flooding. Tides are expected fall below 6.5 ft MLLW after the Thursday morning high tide, diminishing the threat for coastal flooding. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. Heat Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire. High Wind Warning from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Diego County Valleys. High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for San Bernardino County Mountains. High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to midnight PDT Saturday night for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to noon PDT Saturday for Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Wind Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to noon PDT Saturday for Orange County Inland Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CO AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM  268 FXUS61 KPBZ 150605 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain shower chances have decreased today. Added a mention of thunder on Friday with a strong cold front. A portion of the area generally east of I-79 has been included in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with damaging winds on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm front lift north tonight 2) Strong cold front crosses Friday with showers, possible thunderstorms, and gusty wind. Colder behind the front, with frost and freeze conditions Saturday night. 3) Dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front was analyzed from the Mid Atlantic region to the Lower Ohio Valley region. A wave moving along the front could spread some showers across areas south of I-70 today. An isolated shower is possible across the remainder of the area, though much of the time will be dry in easterly flow. The front will return north as a warm front tonight, as a digging shortwave trough and deepening surface low advance across the Midwest. Showers are expected as the front lifts north, with isolated thunderstorms also possible with elevated instability. A low level jet is also expected to increase and track across the Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region tonight. This should enhance lift, resulting in more numerous showers and possible thunderstorms north of Pittsburgh. A portion of eastern Ohio was included in a Marginal Risk for severe storms this evening. It appears there is a better chance for severe storms upstream, and there is some question on how far east this activity will reach before weakening. Overall, the potential for severe storms across the Upper Ohio Valley region appears limited, with the instability becoming elevated by the time storms arrive. 0-6km shear is expected to range from 45-55kt, which could result in a gusty wind potential until the storms become elevated tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2... The warm front should lift north of the region Friday morning, as the deepening surface low tracks across Ontario. The low will pull a strong cold front across the region from W-E from mid morning into the early afternoon. With the slower FROPA timing, enough instability could build with some heating early in the day to result in a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has included areas roughly east of I-79 in a Marginal Risk for severe storms/damaging wind gusts as the front crosses. With a strong wind field in place aloft, any stronger shower or thunderstorm could mix this wind down to the surface (wind at 10 kft is expected to be around 60 kt.) After FROPA, cold advection and a tight pressure gradient should result in gusty wind from 30-40 mph across much of the area. Probabilities for advisory level gusts (greater than 45mph), and currently range from 5 percent to as much as 35 percent across the lower elevations. It still appears the higher terrain areas will see the highest gusts, with advisory level gusts the most likely across eastern Tucker county WV later Friday into Friday night. Overall, the less aggressive cold advection should result in slightly less steep lapse rates, which could limit gusts outside of the higher terrain. Showers are expected to increase again Friday night as the strong upper trough crosses the region, and some lake enhancement occurs. Temperatures are currently expected to remain above freezing, with wind precluding a frost potential. Wind should diminish on Saturday as high pressure builds in. Clearing skies and diminishing wind should result in widespread frost and freeze conditions Saturday night into Sunday morning. KEY MESSAGE 3... A less amplified flow aloft is expected by next week as the deep upper trough exits the area. Rising 500mb height and surface high pressure should result in dry weather into the middle of next week, with a gradual warming trend back to seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Areas of MVFR cigs continue across the region, though some patchy erosion has occurred in dry advection on nrly flow. Expect some redevelopment of these cigs as the flow gradually veers to the east. Otherwise, expect mainly MVFR cigs through much of the day as a warm front begins to lift north toward the region. Further deterioration to low MVFR, and eventually IFR, is expected this evening and tonight as the front crosses, and showers overspread the region. There could be isolated thunderstorms as well with elevated instability and a crossing low level jet. This jet should also result in a LLWS potential from late evening through the overnight hours. Outlook... A strong cold front will bring showers and possible thunderstorms on Friday, along with gusty W wind from 30-40kt. Higher gusts from 45-50kt are possible across the higher terrain airports. Showers will continue Friday night under subsequent upper troughing. Building high pressure will return dry weather Saturday into next week. Wind will also diminish on Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...WM  395 FXUS63 KBIS 150608 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 108 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northwesterly winds with gusts up to 55 mph starting Thursday morning and lingering through Thursday night. - Widespread freezing temperatures are possible Thursday night into Friday morning. - Notably milder temperatures to end the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light rain showers continue over southern parts of the area, but continue to slide off to the east-southeast. Latest forecast covers this well. UPDATE Issued at 949 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Light rain showers are present mainly south of I94, though may meander a bit further north tonight. Adjusted PoPs based on the latest radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 656 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Organized radar echoes are present mainly in northwestern South Dakota and far southwestern North Dakota, and are gradually working further into southwestern and south central parts of the state. However, the latest model forecast soundings suggest a fair amount of dry air to overcome, with uncertainty as to just how far north saturation will occur. Based on the latest CAMs and radar trends, increased areal coverage of 20 percent PoPs mainly along and south of I94 through tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Near zonal to southwesterly flow is found over the northern Plains as we remain stuck between a two upper level features. The first, a stacked low developing over the southern Plains, is expected to lift to the east this afternoon through the evening. With an inverted surface trough stretching to the north and the increasing moisture returns up ahead of this low, there are some chances (10 to 30 percent) for light precipitation over portions of southwestern and south central North Dakota late this afternoon through early this evening. Overall QPF is expected to be light, around a few hundreths at most for any given location. The second, found to the north of the forecast area, is a stacked low/opening trough over Alberta hat progged to move into Saskatchewan overnight, lofting a cold front across the area that'll begin to turn surface winds tonight into Thursday morning. Otherwise, conditions today across western and central North Dakota are expected to remain fairly calm and dry, with partly to mostly cloudy skies everywhere but the far northwest through this afternoon and seasonable highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s are expected today. With the passage of the cold front overnight, low temperatures across the west are expected to drop as low as the lower to mid 30s west to the upper 30s to lower 40s central. With increasing winds also expected behind the passage of the cold front, we will opt to hold back on issuing a freeze headline at this time. For Thursday, the passage of the cold front and associated CAA across the area is expected to promote strong northwesterly winds through much of the day, with sustained speeds up to 30 MPH and gusts up to 50 MPH expected to mix down from a fairly well organized low to mid level jet. The strongest winds in the morning and early afternoon are anticipated to be found across the west, and especially the southwest, as the core of the jet drops down across the area. Lingering strong winds are then expected across the south central through the evening as the aforementioned cold front exists to the southeast of the forecast area. EFI values during this period are broadly around 0.8-0.9, with a shift of tails across portions of the northwest, where the core of the jet is expected to linger through the morning and afternoon. We have opted to issue a Wind Advisory for all of western and central North Dakota starting 15Z Thursday morning through 05Z Thursday night (10 AM CDT / 9 AM MDT to 12 AM CDT / 11 PM MDT). Otherwise for Thursday, a few showers will be possible across the north central into the northern James River Valley in the afternoon and evening as the opening trough dives south across Minnesota. Seasonable cool highs in the mid 40s west to mid 50s south central are expected with the cold air mass settling over the northern Plains behind the front. With rapidly diminishing winds and clearing skies overnight, lows dropping in the mid 20s to lower 30s west can be anticipated, which could promote a widespread freeze across much of the forecast area. Condition across the northern Plains are then expected to warm as we head into the end of the week as an upper level ridge builds in across the west, with forecast highs mainly in the 50s on Friday becoming highs in the 60s to lower 70s for Saturday and Sunday. Looking ahead into next week, the ensemble has moderately strong agreement (approximately 85 percent of members) on more moderate temperatures as the ridge is squashed by a northern Canadian low, with highs in the 50s and 60s forecast through the early portions of the week. A low membership, underdispersed cluster (approximately 15 percent of members, all GEFS) also exists, which instead advertises the ridge surviving through the midweek, along with seasonably warm temperatures as high as the 60s and 70s, as the influence of the northern Canadian low remains far to the north of the forecast area. Either scenario then captures a pattern shift back toward cooler and wetter weather in the extended turn as a strong Pacific low makes landfall in the southwestern CONUS and makes it way into the Great Plains Wednesday through the end of the workweek, though specifics remain uncertain this far out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light rain continues over southern portions of North Dakota, though ceilings and visibility should remain VFR. The exception being in the southern James River Valley where some low level stratus will linger for a few more hours south of KJMS. A passing cold front will result in strong northwesterly winds developing during the day, which will linger into the evening hours. MVFR ceilings, along with the potential for isolated showers, are expected for most of the state behind the front. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for Ndz002>005-009-010-012- 013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050- 051-055>062. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...JJS  858 FXUS63 KDLH 150612 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 112 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain enters from the west this morning and spreads east through the day. NW WI will see the majority of the rainfall. No storms expected with the passing system. - Gusty and dry conditions return on Friday and Saturday and may prompt fire weather concerns, especially on Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Synoptic set remains consistent with the discussion below. Overall, expecting showers to enter from the west this morning and spread east through the day. Minor shift in the low pressure going slightly further north has increased QPF for NW WI with the Gogebic Range now expecting greater than 0.50" The NBM seems to be struggling with temperatures under our cloudy regime. Max temperatures are too warm and overnight lows are too cold. Small adjustments were made, except for Friday morning where the NBM is 5-6F too cold. Leaned into the higher model consensus which keeps much of the region above freezing Friday morning. Precipitation will be exiting Friday morning and will largely be in the form of rain. Far northern MN could see a few snowflakes mix in but not expecting any impacts. The only other overhaul was to the Min RHs for Saturday. Model soundings remain very dry and with the abundance of sunshine expected Min RHs will likely fall to 25-30%. Increasing winds into the afternoon may prompt fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, lingering stratus clouds will slowly scatter across the Northland, leaving behind calm and quiet conditions. Cloud cover will increase again tonight across the area. Opted to increase low temperatures for tonight compared to guidance due to higher cloud cover limiting heat release overnight, with readings staying in the lower to mid 30s rather than dipping into the 20s. An upper-level cutoff low over the Four Corners will phase into an incoming trough from the Canadian Prairies on Thursday, leading to a surface low moving across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. Rainfall will develop along a frontogenesis band Thursday morning and spread across the area through the afternoon. Rain chances will be highest across northwest Wisconsin, where a tenth to a quarter inch of rain is expected. Low temperatures in the mid 30s are also anticipated for tomorrow night due to higher cloud cover. A large trough will bring rain chances and cool air close behind for the late week. Precipitation along and wrap around precipitation behind the front will keep rain chances going for Thursday night into Friday morning. There is no snow currently in the latest forecast for early Friday morning, but a few flakes falling with light rain is still possible across the Arrowhead and south shore. Strong northwest winds will surge behind the boundary late Thursday night into Friday, gusting 25 to 35 mph across the Northland, with gusts up to 45 mph near Lake Superior before diminishing Friday afternoon. High pressure builds across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, setting the stage for very dry air to overspread the region. Forecasters are still looking at relative humidity as low as 25 percent for Saturday. Winds are expected to increase in the afternoon, but timing will depend on the speed of a warm front moving through. The combination of gusty southwest winds reaching 20 to 30 mph and the dry air mass could lead to near-critical to critical fire weather conditions on Saturday. An upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border on Sunday, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with passing clouds. Heading into early next week, upper-level ridging willbecome the predominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This will maintain dry, mostly clear, and mild conditions through Monday and Tuesday. While a couple of weak shortwaves may attempt to bring a stray shower next week, dry weather is favored to dominate. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR stratus still envelopes much of the region this evening with a small clearing from BRD to HYR. However, cloud cover is already starting to fill in over this clearing. Rain is expected to enter from the west by late morning and spread east through the remainder of the TAF period. HYR will see the most steady state rain with areas west and north getting a glancing blow before showers become more scattered in nature through the evening hours. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light southeast winds today will gradually turn to out of the southwest as rain enters from the west. Rain will persist through the overnight hours but no storms are expected. Winds will turn to out of the north with the departure of the rain early Friday morning and ramp up rapidly. Widespread gales are expected and a Gale Watch is in effect. Gales will briefly weaken Friday evening, but look to return on Saturday as winds turn to out of the southwest. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No fire weather concerns today. Rain moves in from the west and spreads east through the day. NW WI will see the lion's share of the moisture with totals of 0.25-0.75" expected. Very windy conditions for Friday morning as the system exits, but dry air doesn't look to take hold of the region until Saturday. While winds won't be quite as strong we are still forecasting widespread gusts in excess of 25 mph. Model soundings show an immense amount of dry air aloft, and when paired with an abundance of sunshine we should see those RHs fall to 25-30%. Fire weather headlines may be needed. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for LSZ121-140>148-150. && $$ UPDATE...Britt DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt  904 FXUS62 KTBW 150614 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 214 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Moisture increases late in the week leading to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. - Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters expected over the weekend and continuing into next week. - Cool down with below average temperatures expected Sunday and into most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Upper level ridging and surface high pressure continues to ridge through the southeast U.S. keeping an easterly wind flow over the Florida peninsula today. A fine line between drier air over north central Florida and moist air over southern Florida is very apparent on the latest water vapor imagery. The TBW 00Z sounding is also showing this dry air with a PWAT of only 1.20 inches, while the MFL 00Z sounding is showing a PWAT of 1.98 inches. Models are showing an increase in moisture advecting northward through central Florida today with PWAT values ranging between 1.8 - 2.1 inches. This increase in moisture will equate to scattered showers and isolated storms over southwest Florida today. Most areas north of Tampa Bay will remain rain-free today. By Friday morning, the upper ridging and surface high has moved southeastward and will be located between the Bahamas and Bermuda. We will see increasing moisture over all of west central and southwest Florida with PWAT values between 1.8 - 2.0 inches. This will equate to afternoon scattered showers and isolated storms across the Florida peninsula on Friday. Farther to the north and west, an area of low pressure will be located over the Great Lakes region with an associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mississippi River Valley, then to southeast Texas. The area of low pressure will move northeastward over New England through Saturday morning while the cold front moves through the southeast U.S. and Florida. We can expect scattered to numerous showers and storms late Friday through Saturday evening with frontal passage. By Saturday evening into Sunday, the cold front will be located over southern Florida, while a strong 1036 MB high pressure center sets up near Virginia. Skies and rain coverage will clear from north to south, but scattered showers and isolated storms will still be possible over southwest Florida through Sunday evening, then low rain chances expected for most of next week. A tight pressure gradient between the remnant cold front over south Florida and the strong high pressure near Virginia will set up over the Florida peninsula producing breezy north through northeast winds for most of next week. These breezy north through northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters with a Small Craft Advisory needed starting Saturday and continuing through most of next week. Above average temperatures expected today and Friday with daytime highs in the mid 80s to around 90 and overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A big cool down and lower humidity is expected starting Saturday as the cold front pushes south through the Florida peninsula. Well below average temperatures expected Sunday through most of next week with daytime highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Dew points will dip into the 50s north of Tampa Bay, while low to mid 60s expected central and southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. However, there could be a few showers at the southwest Florida sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW Thursday afternoon that could cause some brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Easterly winds will remain less than 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure over the southeast U.S. will keep east through southeast winds around 10-15 knots over the eastern Gulf waters through Friday. Some showers and isolated storms will also be possible the next couple of days, especially off the southwest coast of Florida. A cold front moves through the waters late Friday into Saturday producing higher rain and storm chances for all of the eastern Gulf waters. A tight pressure gradient sets up over the region in the wake of this front producing north through northeast winds around 20-30 knots and seas up to 12 feet with Small Craft Advisory conditions starting Saturday and continuing for most of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Some showers and isolated storms possible this afternoon over southwest Florida and all of west central and southwest Florida on Friday and Saturday as a cold front pushes through the Florida peninsula. Humidity values will remain above critical levels through the forecast period. The only fire weather concern will be breezy north through northeast winds greater than 15 mph starting Saturday afternoon and continuing into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 75 88 75 / 20 10 40 50 FMY 91 76 90 76 / 60 20 60 50 GIF 91 74 91 74 / 20 10 60 40 SRQ 90 74 88 76 / 40 20 40 50 BKV 91 72 90 71 / 0 10 40 40 SPG 89 76 87 76 / 20 10 40 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Oglesby  054 FXHW60 PHFO 150617 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 817 PM HST Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure system drifting slowly from west to east far north of the Hawaiian Islands over the next few days will increase easterly trade winds into the moderate to breezy range lasting into the middle of next week. Brief pulses of enhanced showers are forecast with three passing easterly waves favoring the windward mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours starting Friday night and lingering into Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... A high pressure system drifting slowly from west to east far north of the Hawaiian Islands over the next few days will increase easterly trade winds into the moderate to breezy range lasting into the middle of next week. Three low level easterly waves will ride into the islands on the strengthening trade winds bringing pulses of higher shower coverage favoring Friday night, then late Saturday, and the last one unfolding from Sunday through Monday. The last of these easterly short wave troughs might be the strongest of the three with pulses of showers extending over the typically drier leeward areas at times. Forecasting rainfall amounts with these waves is always challenging due to variations in arrival timing and their intensity relative to each island. Overall the afternoon forecast grids look reasonable. No evening updates. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 PM HST Wed Oct 14 2026 Radar and satellite show scattered showers and mostly cloudy skies across the Puna and Ka'u districts of the Big Island this afternoon. Skies were partly to mostly sunny with isolated showers over eastern Maui, and mostly sunny elsewhere. Winds were generally out of the east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph, except for locations downwind of terrain, where light west winds were common. Forecast models are in good agreement that a series of surface high pressure systems will move west-to-east across the northern Pacific, giving us an extended period of trade winds. By early next week, surface troughing may develop as a strong upper level ridge develops to our north. This troughing could lead to an increase in showers from late in the weekend into early next week, especially on the eastern end of the state. Confidence is not high at this time, as models are not in agreement on how much moisture may move into the region. Otherwise, expect a typical trade wind regime, with mainly windward and mauka showers, most numerous at night. && .AVIATION... Moderate trades will strengthen to breezy levels Thursday as a ridge builds north of the islands. An area of moisture moving east to west across the state will bring clouds and showers to the windward and mauka areas. Brief MVFR ceilings may occur within better organized showers, but mostly VFR conditions should prevail. AIRMET Sierra has been issued for windward areas of the Big Island as the above mentioned area of clouds and showers move in. Maui may need to added overnight as the clouds and showers spread to this AIRMET later this evening. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure far northwest of the islands will move closer tonight and Thursday, then build as it moves to the north then northeast of Hawaii on Friday. As a result, trade winds will gradually increase to fresh to locally strong levels over the next couple of days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui starting Thursday. A stronger surface high will pass far north of the islands late Saturday and Sunday, likely increasing trade winds and possibly necessitating an expansion of the SCA to additional waters. Elevated trade winds will persist into early next week. The current northwest swell will continue a gradual decline through Thursday, followed by a moderate north-northwest swell Friday through the weekend. The current swell has lowered to around 4 ft at 12 seconds this evening and will slowly fall through Thursday. The next swell will be from the north-northwest and will arrive Friday. Surf along north and west facing shores should top out around seasonal average during the peak of the swell Friday afternoon and Saturday, then slowly decline late Saturday and Sunday as the dropping swell shifts more northerly and a smaller overlapping northwest swell arrives. Both swells will fade early next week. Surf along south facing shores will briefly fall near or just below seasonal average as the current south swell continues a slow decline tonight. A new long-periond south swell will build Thursday and may push south shore surf back above seasonal average through Friday. The swell will slowly decline Saturday through early next week. Surf along east facing shores will remain small through Thursday and will steadily increase Friday as trade winds strengthen over the region. Rough trade wind swell will produce east shore surf above seasonal average Saturday through early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 359 PM HST Wed Oct 14 2026 Moderate trade winds will strengthen to breezy levels Thursday. Dry air will keep RH levels at near-critical values each afternoon for parts of the state Friday through Sunday. RH values are expected to increase from Monday through the middle of next week. Winds will remain below critical thresholds. Inversion heights today should range from about 5,000 to 6,000 ft through Thursday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM HST Saturday for the typical windier waters and channels near Maui and the Big Island. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Bohlin PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Parker AVIATION...M Ballard MARINE...Quesada  021 FXUS63 KDDC 150616 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 116 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain, storms, and fog tapering off this morning; chilly temperatures tonight - Frost/Freeze likely Saturday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Mid-upper level trough that has been supplying the area with dreary weather conditions will depart later this morning and into this afternoon. Any lingering rain, storms, and fog will diminish from southwest to northeast late this morning with clearing skies and breezy conditions into the later afternoon. Tonight has the potential to bring some frost and perhaps a freeze. However, uncertainty remains with the level of winds that could limit those impacts, so held off on any headlines for now. Frost/Freeze headlines will be near certain Friday night into Saturday morning as widespread upper 20s to low 30s are expected across nearly all of western and central Kansas. With light winds and clear skies, freeze and frost are highly likely. This is shaping up to be a widespread issue for plants, so precautions should be started to protect any most vulnerable crops and plants. A warming trend will commence for the latter half of the weekend and into next week as 850 mb temperature anomalies go back to above average per global models. As far as the next chance of any precipitation is concerned, only low POPs (30-40%) are in the forecast Wednesday and Thursday, but varying patterns are evident among the globals, putting low confidence in the longer range. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 LIFR conditions will begin the TAF period at all sites given low CIGs and occasional spotty dense fog. CIGs will remain in LIFR through 15-17z Thursday, improving to IFR 17-19z, and MVFR 19-22z. Fog will dissipate completely through 13-17z this morning. Conditions will gradually improve from southwest to northeast. Spotty rain and isolated thunderstorms will also continue through 15z this morning. Skies clear after 00z Friday. Regarding wind, expect breezy northwest winds 15-25 knots with gusts 30-35 knots. Winds will increase to those levels beginning 15z this morning until a weakening trend after 00z Friday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...Bennett  200 FXUS62 KCHS 150620 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday. - 2) Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday. Overall, warm and dry conditions will prevail through Friday. Ridging aloft will steadily slip eastward and off the coast by Friday morning as a sharp trough shifts through the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region. At the surface, weak high pressure will sit across the area today moving off the coast Friday as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest late in the day. We will again be near daily records today (see Climate section) followed by more mid to upper 80s for Friday. Patchy shallow ground fog is expected again this morning. While widespread significant visibility reduction is not expected, there could be a few patches that produce sharp visibility changes over short distances. KEY MESSAGE 2: Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. Friday: High pressure will gradually shift offshore on Friday as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. This will yield warm conditions ahead of the boundary, with afternoon highs in the mid to high 80s. Southwesterly winds are expected to increase somewhat during the day as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front. The latest model guidance generally favors a relatively dry frontal passage with a few sprinkles late Friday night into Saturday morning mainly across portions of northern Dorchester and Berkeley Counties. The front is forecast to cross the region overnight, with cooler and drier air filtering into the area from the north. Saturday: A noticeably cooler airmass should be present across the region on Saturday in wake of the cold front. High temperatures will struggle to reach around 70 degrees across much of the region, representing a substantial change from the warmth experienced during the work week. Expect north- northeasterly winds to become quite breezy with speeds 15-20 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. The combination of cooler temperatures and persistent winds will make conditions feel distinctly more like fall. Saturday night will turn chilly as high pressure continues to build southward across the Carolinas and into Georgia. Sunday: Expect cool and breezy conditions to continue as high pressure continues to expand into the Eastern CONUS. Afternoon temperatures will range from low to mid 60s across much of the region with upper 60s along the coastline. Overnight lows may fall into the upper 40s across inland locations, with readings in the 50s closer to the coastline. The combination of low humidity, rain-free forecast, and periods of sunshine should produce crisp, seasonable fall-like weather. The center of surface high pressure should shift offshore of the New England coast on Monday, resulting in winds to weaken and shift from the east-northeast. Temperatures across the CWA should warm near seasonable normals, mid to upper 70s. Gradual warming expected through mid-week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Friday. We will likely again see shallow ground fog right around sunrise this morning. We currently do not anticipate any significant visibility reductions and have kept the forecast VFR. However, there is a low chance for a brief period of sub-VFR conditions. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Today through Friday: Conditions will remain quiet across the local waters today with winds topping out around 10 knots this afternoon and evening. By Friday, winds will turn to become more southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds are expected to top out in the 10-15 knot range for most of the day, increasing into the 15-20 knot range late. Seas are expected to average around 2 feet through Friday. Friday through Monday: As a strong cold front passes across the local waters late Friday night into Saturday morning, this will yield to a sharp wind shift and deteriorating marine conditions. Winds will shift to the north and strengthen, with sustained winds preaching 25-30 kts with gusts up to 35-45 kts possible through Sunday night. This will likely warrant Gale Warnings for all of the local waters + a Small Craft Advisory for the Charleston Harbor on Friday night through early Monday morning. It's important to note that some guidance has trended much stronger for the marine wind gusts on Sunday into Sunday evening, with the NBM continuing to indicate the change for storm force (48 kts) wind gusts across the outer Georgia waters and portions of the offshore South Carolina waters. It's possible that a Storm Watch/Warning might be warranted for that portion of the waters Saturday night into Sunday night. Seas will build to 7 to 10 ft, with 10 to 15 ft possible farther offshore (highest across the outer Georgia waters). The elevated seas will likely result in breakers in excess of 5 ft, with High Surf conditions this weekend, especially along the GA coast. Thereafter, the post-frontal airmass will continue to modify with winds gradually easing backwards and turning more easterly on Monday. However, a longer-period swell may persist after the local winds diminish with elevated seas forecast to last into the mid-week. Mariners should continue monitor the forecast for this weekend before heading offshore. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 15: KCHS: 87/2021 KCXM: 88/1925 KSAV: 90/1925 && .EQUIPMENT... The National Weather Service Charleston Doppler Radar (KCLX) is expected to be down for around two hours Thursday morning for maintenance. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ BSH/Dennis  217 FXUS64 KLCH 150621 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 121 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather danger Friday and Saturday with anomalously dry and windy conditions each day. Red Flag Watch on Friday; another Saturday. - Record to near record heat is forecast across central and south central Louisiana again today. - High winds Friday and Saturday will result in Wind Advisories as well as hazardous sea conditions. Gale conditions possible late Saturday. - Low Water possible for southeast Texas Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Southerly winds developing ahead of the late-week frontal system has allowed Gulf moisture to seep inland beneath a deeply dry airmass. The combination of high pressure overtop the region and dry airmass aloft has given this sfc layer the conditions needed to efficiently cool and so radiational fog is beginning to develop. Already some of our obs are seeing patches of dense fog. The coastal breeze has kept visibilities at bay along and south of I10 but as we move towards early morning and winds diminish to calm, it's likely that we'll see a sudden onset of at least widespread patches of dense fog. Thus, a dense fog advisory has been issued for interior southwest Louisiana until 9 AM. Not much to discuss for Thursday's forecast... High pressure diminishing with breezy southerlies off the Gulf bringing about increasing sfc humidity. Highs in the upper 80s, low 90s. Perhaps a shower may squeak out this afternoon or evening with falling heights and in the moist layer. Not expected but possible for areas west of LA 171. Now for the fun part of the forecast. Things get kicked off Thursday with upper jet max strengthening over the eastern Rockies. This jet feature kicks aforementioned sfc low sitting over north TX into the upper midwest. This enhancement to the polar jet then pulls an upper low out of south Canada. Ultimately these two features phasing is what will cause such a sharp frontal intrusion on Friday. A cold front then crashes southward on Friday. Prefrontal winds Friday AM will establish a north vector and by 9 AM, inland areas will already see winds 15 to 20 MPH with higher gusts. These winds will spread southeast rapidly, reaching coastal communities before lunch. Winds will only increase thru the afternoon and will remain elevated through Saturday evening. Peak speeds of 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH are expected Friday and Saturday afternoons. There may be a slightly lower wind overnight into Saturday but it won't be much lower. Wind advisories will be needed and may come as early as Friday morning to cover the period. The strong north winds will usher colder and drier conditions and minimum RH values 20 to 35 can be expected Friday and Saturday. Combined with the strong winds, fire conditions will be very elevated. A fire weather watch is in effect for Friday; another needed Saturday. It is imperative not to burn anytime before or during this period as winds will easily re-light coals. Abide by local burn bans and if you see a fire/smoke, report it to local authorities. High temps will warm into the 80s ahead of the front and will struggle to reach the low 70s Saturday. Expect the 50s by Saturday morning and 40s Sunday morning. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas are beginning to see some radiational fog develop. Winds in coastal areas have remained slightly elevated causing fog to remain more on the ground than widespread and dense. However, as winds become nearly calm prior to sunrise, areas of dense fog may sock in for Louisiana terminals. Winds increase and conditions improve with sunrise. A frontal system developing in the central Plains will result in southeasterly winds Thursday with a prevailing breeze 8 to 12 knots. A few rogue gusts less than 20 knots cannot be ruled out. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Breezy onshore winds will persist into late Thursday. A crashing cold front will near the region after midnight Friday. Its influence will turn coastal winds to the north prior to sunrise, before the much stronger winds arrive starting mid morning. Northerly winds will only increase throughout Friday with a peak intensity between Friday evening and Saturday morning. A brief period of conditions hazardous to small craft will occur from Friday morning until early afternoon. Thereafter, Gale-force conditions are expected to develop during overnight hours. Frequent gusts 40 to 45 knots will be possible with seas growing to 4 to 11 feet through midday Saturday. Low Water conditions will be possible at Sabine Pass Friday at low tide time. All other waterways appear to be oriented as to not see mass pushout. Continue to monitor. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas of patchy to dense fog will be ongoing at sunrise Thursday morning. After sunrise, somewhat breezy southerly winds will establish ahead of a developing frontal system in the Plains. RH minimums will range 30 to 50 percent during afternoon hours with 20 ft winds 5 to 8 knots. The frontal system then crashes through the region on Friday bringing about a roughly 48 hour period of elevated fire concerns. Northerly winds at sunrise will see a rapid increase in speeds from 7 AM Friday with interior regions seeing 15 MPH sustained by 9 AM and coastal areas by roughly 12PM. Winds peak and will remain elevated from Friday mid day through Saturday evening. Strong north winds will also bring about RH minimums 25 to 35 percent Friday and 20 to 30 percent Saturday. A fire weather watch is in effect Friday for low humidity combined and high winds. Another watch will be needed Saturday. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-141>143-152>154-241>243-253-254. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143. TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for TXZ180-201-259>262. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11 AVIATION...11  478 FXUS63 KGLD 150623 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1223 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers ending this morning to early afternoon. - Windy this afternoon with gusts up to 55 mph in northeast Colorado and 30-50 mph elsewhere. Some patchy blowing dust possible in Colorado. - Frost and light freeze possible tonight, then a light freeze likely Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1215 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Scattered showers will continue to move east overnight and this morning ahead of the upper trough axis. Secondary band to the northwest associated with the sheared out remnants of the upper low may survive as far south as Yuma County before weakening this afternoon with a few light showers. Otherwise, main concern today will be the potential for windy conditions, primarily in northeast Colorado. Mid to late afternoon clearing may be enough to mix down stronger winds to the surface on the backside of the upper trough. NBM probabilities continue at 50-60% in a fairly small area of western Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties for gusts of greater than 55 mph after 18z through about 22z. Some patchy blowing dust may also develop with favorable mixing heights, but with the recent rainfall confidence is on the low side given the moist top soils. Gusts outside of northeast Colorado should max out in the 30-50 mph range. Winds take some time to diminish tonight with gusts of 20-40 mph well into Friday morning before a noticeable decline. This may inhibit temperatures from falling despite clearing skies. NBM probabilities for 32 or colder are running around 40-50% near the Kansas and Colorado border to up to 70-90% along Highway 59 and northern Yuma County, where there is also around a 40% chance for a hard freeze of 28 or lower. Elsewhere, a frost is more likely. Upper ridge will build in from the west on Friday and Saturday resulting in dry conditions. Friday will see light winds by the afternoon with temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds shift around to the southwest and increase late Friday night, gusting 20-30 mph by Saturday morning in Colorado and west of Highway 25. This may once again inhibit temperatures from falling despite the clear skies. Nonetheless, probabilities are running quite high for a light freeze in the entire area, near 100%, with a wide range of probabilities for a hard freeze, favoring low spots in Colorado and along the Republican River. The south to southwest winds continue to increase through the day on Saturday, with gusts of 30-40 mph common by the afternoon, highest in Colorado. Afternoon relative humidity is forecast to drop to 15% or lower from Yuma County southwest into western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties, which combined with the gusty winds will result in near critical to critical fire weather conditions. This may extend into the adjacent counties of Kansas and Nebraska for a few hours as well. High temperatures in those areas will reach the 70s with downslope warming, with 60s expected elsewhere with a more southerly wind component. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 256 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Synoptically, we find ourselves in northwest flow aloft on Saturday as a ridge develops over the eastern Rockies/northern Plains. The upper-level pattern will briefly shift westerly then southwesterly flow Sunday as this system propagates eastward across the north- central CONUS. Winds aloft should remain from the southwest until a shortwave passage shifts them to be briefly zonal or west- northwestward on Monday. After this, ensemble guidance suggests more ridging building in Tuesday which insinuates southwest upper-level flow once again. Descending to the surface, high pressure is forecasted Saturday through late Sunday. A weak low, associated with the shortwave, should then move across the County Warning Area (CWA) Monday. No frontal boundaries are anticipated with the overall system over the four-day forecast period, therefore limiting any precipitation chances to shortwave passages. It is likely to be dry Saturday through Tuesday as current Probability of Precipitation (PoP) guidance has 5% or less for the entire long-term period. High temperatures Saturday should be on the more seasonable side, with general 60s and low 70s expected throughout the CWA. Sunday/Monday should see a bit of a warmup as 70s across the board are anticipated. Said warmup should culminate in upper 70s for Tuesday. Low overnight temperatures are what we will have to watch for this timeframe as well. Many locales have a strong chance to see their first frost/freeze of the season this Saturday with low temperatures projected to bottom out in the low 30s. Guidance currently has a range of 30-33 degrees for the entire CWA. Looking ahead, lows Sunday through Tuesday are expected to sit in the 40s in some locations and upper 30s in others, so freeze potential will be unlikely those mornings. Fire weather potential will continued to be monitored throughout the week. Currently, there is a low chance of critical fire weather conditions being met in eastern Colorado on Saturday, according to guidance. Relative Humidity (RH) values possibly reaching 14/15% is in the mix on Saturday for areas west of US-385. Simultaneously, southerly surface winds are expected to peak around 20-25 mph, gusting 35-40 mph. For the rest of the forecast period, RH values reaching the upper teens is likely Sunday and Monday for our eastern Colorado counties. Northerly winds, shifting southeast with the shortwave passage, generally 5-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph is expected. Tuesday's RHs and winds are not expected to be of concern for fire weather in eastern Colorado. Elsewhere in the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is likely through the weekend and into next week. General winds of 5-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph is expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1149 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 LIFR ceilings are in place at both KGLD and KMCK as a north-to-south oriented band of showers makes its way eastward across the area. All showers are now east of KGLD, though KMCK can expect to see on-and- off rain as this band goes through. Observations have shown ceilings slightly rising and visibilities hovering around 3-5 statute miles as showers come through, so this is forecast to continue over the next few hours for KMCK. Ceilings will begin to lift between 10 and 11Z, though are still expected to remain IFR through about 13 or 14Z. There is a low chance of further showers during the early afternoon, though guidance seems to suggest that these showers have a chance of dissipating before reaching KGLD and KMCK. There are indications of wind shear with a low level jet starting later this afternoon as well, though model soundings suggest that any wind shear will be weak and brief. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. CO...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NEZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Davis  643 FXUS61 KILN 150625 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 225 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Locally heavy rainfall threat early this morning appears low so it was removed. PWAT anomalies are highest across central Kentucky, south of the local area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday. Locally heavy rainfall introduces a localized flood threat Thursday night. There is a low end severe weather threat Thursday evening ahead of a cold front moving through. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts. 2) Gusty winds are expected on Friday with a rapid drop in temperatures. Frost is likely this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1) A cold front that dropped through the area into central Kentucky early this morning will eventually move back through the area today as a warm front. This will occur as an area of low pressure ejects northeastward out of the central Plains into the lower Midwest and Great Lakes by the evening. From the mid morning into the early afternoon, the incoming low pressure will transition our winds from northeasterly to southeasterly. Plentiful moisture remains trapped within the transition, leading mostly cloudy to overcast conditions through much of the day, including the afternoon. As the warm front lifts northward late in the afternoon and evening, the local area will be within the warm sector of the incoming system with the cold front still off to the west. A few showers are expected along the warm front as it lifts north, but the primary severe threat will exist with any thunderstorms that are able to form south of the warm front in the better heating. While forecast soundings do indicate favorable turning of the winds (resulting in curved hodographs) in the lower parts of the atmosphere, extensive cloud cover prevents more supportive surface temperatures. The lack of better heating results in a low-level inversion that is maintained through much of the afternoon and into the early evening. As instability begins to become more favorable, the directional wind shear is much less curved, keeping any tornado threat very limited. Instead, a few storms capable of damaging winds is the primary concern during the evening hours. With the deep layer winds becoming more unidirectional, multiple rounds of storms impacting the same areas could eventually lead to swaths of locally heavy rainfall. The best chance for this to happen is across portions of eastern Indiana and west-central Ohio. Otherwise, most area may remain rainfall free until the cold front approaches Friday morning. Key Message 2) Expectations remain on track for the low pressure to intensity as it moves through the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. The associated cold front moves from west to east Friday morning. That means the warmest temperatures in the mid to upper 60s will occur during the early morning hours through daybreak on Friday. Winds will shift out of the northwest, gusting up to 30 mph Friday morning and early afternoon. Along and behind the front, additional rain showers and periods of late rain are expected as the main forcing associated with the trough moves through the region. Temperatures in the mid to upper 50s are forecast the rest of the day. With the combination of wind, rain, and dropping temperatures, conditions will feel quite different from the early morning bus pickup to the afternoon drop off, especially across central and southern Ohio. Winds begin to taper off late Friday night into Saturday morning as high pressure builds in from the west, but it likely will not be fast enough to result in frost Saturday morning. Instead, the most favorable time for frost will be Saturday night into Sunday morning as high pressure shifts eastward across the region. Temperatures quickly drop into the lower 40s and upper 30s Saturday evening, with some locations dropping below freezing by daybreak Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface winds out of the northeast around 5 to 10 knots through early this morning as a stalled front remain south of the TAF sites. While there will be some period of higher categories, MVFR CIGs are expected to expand in coverage into Thursday morning. Conditions are not able to improve much until the evening as the warm front lifts northward. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible but chances remain fairly low so only added a mention for DAY/CVG/LUK with the cold front. A period of LLWS will occur from 03Z-09Z Friday ahead of the cold front passage. OUTLOOK...Occasional MVFR conditions are possible through Friday. Gusty winds out of the west northwest are expected on Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGinnis AVIATION...McGinnis  531 FXUS64 KCRP 150624 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 124 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A cold front Friday will bring cooler and drier conditions to South Texas this weekend. - Gale Watch is in effect Friday Afternoon through Saturday Afternoon. - A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for the coastal areas, possibly farther inland, for Friday-Saturday. - Very low rain chances across South Texas today with a slight increase Friday associated with the cold front. - Moderate to High Rip Current Risk possible Friday through the weekend. - Minor coastal flooding is expected Friday night into Saturday during time of high tide. Coastal flooding could continue into Sunday. - Elevated to critical fire weather concerns possible briefly behind the cold front Friday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Another unseasonably hot day today with most locations remaining rain free due to ridging aloft. Although, a rogue shower or two can't be ruled out. The main weather event will be a strong cold front moving through S TX on Friday, finally bringing some relief from the heat. The cooler and drier conditions will be more noticeable Friday night. A pleasant weekend is in store for S TX with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to low 60s. Temperatures begin to warm back up early next week. Timing of the cold front is still somewhat uncertain. Models indicate a wind shift late Thursday night with the main blast pushing through the area Friday morning. Friday's max temperature may occur Friday morning. Most of S TX will have a 10-25% chance of showers, but there is a higher chance up to 50% along the Rio Grande. The highest chance will be over the gulf waters where the deepest moisture will reside. At this time, it looks like mainly showers with a few thunderstorms possible. Friday is expected to be windy as high pressure builds across S TX behind the cold front. A Wind Advisory may be needed, at least closer to the coast. The strongest winds will be across the bays and coastal waters with gale conditions expected Friday afternoon through early Saturday afternoon. Winds begin to relax Saturday afternoon and evening. Another concern will be coastal flooding. The strong north to northeast winds across the gulf waters in the wake of the cold front will likely lead to minor coastal flooding. Seas are forecast to build to 8-13 feet, possibly up to 14 feet. Swell periods are forecast to increase to 8-9 seconds. The combination will be conducive for pushing water up to the dunes during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be needed by Friday night through Saturday, and maybe into Sunday. However, if the winds and seas are slightly higher than expected, a Coastal Flood Warning may be warranted with water up to 3 feet above MSL during high tide. At this time confidence is very low that we will see tides that high. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Stratus cloud decks are around tonight, impacting inland locations at this time. Coastal sites likely to remain VFR, but could briefly see MVFR as well. VFR conditions return to all sites by mid-moring. Not as much wind today with light to moderate southeasterly winds expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A moderate (BF 4) southeast flow is expected today along with relatively low rain chances. A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal waters Friday, shifting winds to the north-northeast and increasing to near gale (BF 7) with frequent gusts to gale (BF 8) by late Friday afternoon and continuing through early Saturday afternoon. A Gale Watch is in effect Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Winds will relax from nearshore to offshore through Saturday afternoon, becoming a moderate northeast breeze by Sunday. Rain chances increase 30-70% ahead of the cold front then diminish in the wake of the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated today. However, a strong cold front Friday morning will bring a strong north to northeast wind and drier conditions to South Texas through Friday afternoon. There may be a brief window Friday afternoon when RH values drop to critical levels while winds are still strong, leading to elevated or critical fire weather conditions, which may warrant a Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning, but confidence is low that this will occur. RH values begin to increase early Friday evening decreasing the threat. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend along with winds becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 72 82 58 / 10 10 20 0 Victoria 92 68 80 54 / 10 10 20 0 Laredo 95 71 82 58 / 0 0 40 0 Alice 92 70 82 56 / 0 10 20 0 Rockport 89 73 84 59 / 20 10 10 0 Cotulla 95 69 79 55 / 0 30 20 0 Kingsville 90 70 83 57 / 10 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 87 76 82 61 / 10 10 20 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...PH/83  684 FXUS61 KALY 150625 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 225 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms (Level 1 of 5) for areas mainly south of I-90 for Friday. Also, increased wind speeds/gusts for a brief period Friday morning with strong south to southeast winds developing amid rapid pressure falls and rain showers ahead of incoming warm front. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong cold front will bring gusty winds, showers and a few thunderstorms to the region for Friday, followed by blustery and unseasonably chilly conditions for Friday night into Saturday along with a few mountain snow showers. 2) Dry weather with temperatures to near seasonable levels Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After a dry and pleasant day today, phasing upper level energy across the central U.S. will track east, with a strong cold front approaching from the west Friday as low pressure tracks along the St. Lawrence River Valley. A warm front will approach from the southwest late tonight, with bands of rain developing ahead of the front at the leading edge of a strengthening low level jet. Strong forcing and some elevated instability will allow for some locally heavy downpours and rumbles of thunder to occur toward and shortly after daybreak Friday, especially across the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks, Capital/Saratoga and Lake George Region into southern VT. Latest NBM 6-hour probs for >1" rainfall ending 8 AM Friday are ~10-20% across portions of the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. Although flooding is not expected at this time, some ponding of water in poor drainage areas could make for a wet Friday morning commute in these areas. As the low level jet translates overhead around and shortly after daybreak, strong south to southeast winds will be possible across portions of the Capital Region and within some north/south oriented valleys. Latest REFs suggest some gusts of 30-40 mph could occur in these areas through mid Friday morning before decreasing as the core of the low level jet passes by and weakens. As the cold front approaches from the west during the afternoon hours, some surface-based destabilization may occur, especially if some breaks of sun can develop. Latest HREFs and REFs suggest SB CAPES of 100-250 J/kg may develop for areas south of I-90. Strengthening mid level winds will allow 0-6 km shear to increase to 50-60 KT amid this instability, parallel to the incoming front. This suggests the possibility of a low topped line of showers/thunderstorms to develop which could produce a few instances of damaging wind gusts. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for areas mainly south of I-90 accordingly. Even in the absence of convection, as the front passes through, some wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible Friday evening. In the wake of the front, blustery conditions will develop Friday night and continue into Saturday with northwest winds gusting 25-35 mph, perhaps a bit stronger Saturday morning as mixing deepens. Some lingering moisture in the wake of the front, partially from Lake Effect, will allow for some snow showers across higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT late Friday night into Saturday morning, where some coatings to less than one half inch of snow accumulation will be possible. A few flurries/sprinkles could even occur across the eastern Catskills, the Berkshires, and at lower elevations such as the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region Saturday morning. High temperatures Saturday should only reach the 30s to lower 40s across higher elevations, with mainly 40s for valley regions. Combined with brisk winds, wind chill temperatures ("feels-like" temperatures) will be in the 20s/lower 30s for higher terrain, and 30s in valleys through much of the day. KEY MESSAGE 2... After an unseasonably cold morning Sunday with low temps mainly in the 20s, temperatures should moderate into the 50s for most areas by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to moderate to seasonable levels early next week with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s in valleys. Generally dry conditions are expected through early next week at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z/Fri, mainly VFR conditions are expected despite Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL through mid morning. However, due to upslope conditions, MVFR Cigs are likely at KPSF through daybreak. Also can not rule out a few brief periods of MVFR Cigs at KALB and KGFL. Skies should become mostly clear by late morning and continuing through late afternoon, with increasing high and mid level clouds expected after sunset. West to northwest winds 8-12 KT with a few gusts of 20-25 KT will continue through daybreak. Winds will then veer into the northwest to north at similar speeds through mid morning, then north to northeast at 5-10 KT this afternoon. Winds will then become light/variable around and after sunset, becoming south to southeast at KALB at 5-10 KT toward 06Z/Fri. Outlook... Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53/24 AVIATION...24  801 FXUS63 KJKL 150626 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 226 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain mild through Thursday, while showers are possible at times into Friday. - A few thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rain and strong wind gusts are possible this evening. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - likely the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge extended across portions of the Southeastern Conus and into sections of the Gulf. Further west an upper level low was over the Four Corners vicinity. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/MCV was moving through the OH Valley and interacting with a boundary sagging toward the Commonwealth. With the ridge in place to the south, it was another day of record or near record warmth in eastern KY with highs having reached into the 80s in most locations. At JKL, the high so far has been 86, breaking the previous record of 82 from 2017/2021. Showers and a few storms associated with the sagging cold front and the shortwave trough/MCV passing by to the north have moved into northern sections of the region over the past couple of hours. Low level lapse rates are analyzed around 6.5 to 7C/km in the north with mid level lapse rates a bit on the meager side in the 5.5 to 6C/km range. MLCAPE across the region is analyzed on the modest side in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range while effective shear per SPC mesoanalysis page is on the order of 25 to 30KT in the north. PW meanwhile was recently analyzed near 1.3 inches along the VA border and around 1.9 inches in the far northwest. Upstream of the area, a wind gust to 39 mph was observed at the KY Mesonet site in northern Fayette County. This evening and tonight, the shortwave trough/MCV working through the OH Valley will move east of the area during the evening while the upper low initially over the Four Corners region should move into northeastern CO. Meanwhile further north, a shortwave will move southeast from Alberta across sections of Saskatchewan and into Manitoba and the Northern Plains. At the same time, the frontal zone will sag into eastern KY and stall out over the middle of the region. With PW expected to remain elevated and increase to the 1.9 to 2.1 inch range or in the 97th to 99th percentile range, if any training of thunderstorms were to occur it could result in locally heavier rain. With some modest instability in place as well, a storm or two this evening could result in a strong wind gust. In general, this potential is greatest near and north of the Mtn Parkway. WPC has a slight ERO in the northern sections of the area while northern areas are also in a marginal SWODY1. Otherwise, near and behind the sagging front, lowering clouds and patchy fog or stratus build down should occur as the night progresses and this will linger into Thursday morning with the boundary in the vicinity. Showers remain possible tonight near the boundary as well. For Thursday and Thursday night, the upper low that will have reached CO late tonight should weaken to an open wave and eventually merge with the trough to its north during this timeframe. This resulting 500 mb trough axis should reach Ontario to the western Great Lakes to Central Plains through late Thursday night. As this occurs, a sfc low should track from sections of the Plains to the Central to eastern Great Lakes through Thursday night. The boundary that will have stalled over eastern KY will lift back north as a warm front, while a cold front enters the Commonwealth on Thursday night. Shower chances linger into Thursday nearthe boundary before it moves north Thursday evening. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as well. South of the boundary, temperatures will remain mild, with highs likely to climb back well into the 80s for Thursday highs. With the front approaching, winds and gusts should increase late particularly in the west. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 616 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 When the long term forecast period opens on Friday morning, Eastern Kentucky will be on the precipice of a significant change in airmass. A robust, positively-tilted trough stretching from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest will dig deeper into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys as the day progresses. At the surface, this translates to a deepening cyclone over the eastern Great Lakes and a sharp cold front trailing behind it. That cold front will be the focal point of Friday's forecast, with sensible weather details such as high temperatures and wind direction dependent upon a given place's position relative to the boundary. The entire CWA will experience mild AM lows in the upper 60s on Friday morning, when forecast guidance collectively resolves the boundary off to the west in the Bluegrass. Pre-frontal surface winds will be out of the southwest. So will the flow aloft, and this vertical continuity suggests that there will be warm air advection ongoing on Friday in places out ahead of the front. FROPA has trended a little bit later in the day, and Friday's forecast highs have accordingly risen a few degrees towards the upper 70s in our easternmost counties. In counties further to the north and west, there will be a shorter window of time where this WAA overlaps with the diurnal warming cycle. So, high temperatures in places like the Bluegrass will only be a few degrees warmer than those lows (in the upper 60s/lower 70s). Those highs will also likely occur much earlier in the day than usual, as once FROPA occurs, diurnal heating will become suppressed by cloud cover and a sharp wind shift. Surface winds should shift towards a westerly and then northwesterly orientation as FROPA occurs from west to east on Friday. Frontal and orographic lift will combine to yield additional light rain shower chances along and behind the boundary, but the bigger story with this boundary will be the robust cold air advection that takes place behind it. Given the tightening pressure gradient of the parent synoptic system, Friday afternoon's post-frontal winds will be quite breezy. The REFS high-resolution ensemble resolves a 50-80% chance of wind gusts in excess of 25 mph across most of the JKL CWA in this time frame. When this criteria is lowered to >20 mph, the probabilities jump to near 100%. If it is raised above 30 mph, the odds dwindle off significantly. While wind advisory criteria is unlikely to be met, the magnitude of these winds reinforces the notion that there will be an efficient cold air advection regime in the wake of Friday afternoon's frontal passage. Expect a significant drop in temperatures to occur on Friday evening, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide by sunset. Once the sun goes down and solar insolation goes away, the temperature plummet will continue. The entire CWA should wake up to temperatures in the 40s on Saturday morning, but lingering cloud cover and some upsloped rain showers should prevent it from getting much colder than that. The same cannot be said for Saturday night/Sunday morning, which looks to be the coldest night of the autumn season thus far. As a post-frontal surface high pressure system builds into the CWA on Saturday morning, winds will shift to a more northerly orientation. This will bring an end to any orographically-enhanced post-frontal rain chances, and a much cooler/drier continental airmass will move into the region in the wake of the precipitation. Highs will struggle to get much warmer than the 50s, and dewpoints will plummet into the 30s on Saturday afternoon. Diurnal mixing should work to erode any lingering cloud cover by sunset, which should set the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight. NBM ensemble data resolves a 60-90% chance of temperatures dropping below 36 degrees across most of the JKL CWA overnight. The most sheltered and shaded valleys could make a run at the 32 degree mark, but the probability of occurrence drops to below 40% at this threshold. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions. Saturday night is poised to meet this criteria, so agricultural interests and recreational gardeners are encouraged to monitor for potential product issuances as the time approaches. Temperatures will be slow to make a full recovery back above the 70 degree mark next week, although a gradual warm-up is expected. The postfrontal high should shift east on Sunday as the mid/upper level trough axis aloft swings through New England. Antecedent forecast thinking is that a building ridge will allow temperatures to moderate back into the 60s under fair skies by early next week. However, some of the more recent pieces of guidance (namely members of the Euro ensemble) are developing a cut-off low over the Carolinas in this time frame. That feature could block the eastward propagation of that ridging, and it would cause temperatures to stay on the lower side of the forecast envelope early next week. Nevertheless, fog should become favored over frost in the valleys at night as temperatures warm. This is typical for autumn in Eastern Kentucky, and next week's forecast features temperatures much closer to normal than what we are experiencing at the present moment. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Light to moderate rain lingered mainly in portions of southeast KY at the start of the period-- the remains of a line of thunderstorms which moved through much of the area. The precipitation is ahead of a very slow moving cold front moving south into KY. Many locations were seeing IFR or worse conditions where the precip moved through, and especially near/north of I-64. However, some places were still VFR, especially over south central KY. The remaining precip will be tapering off, but largely the status quo is expected for conditions into the day, with some variability up and down. There still could be some additional showers as well. The cold front will stall in eastern KY during the day and then turn back north as a warm front by evening. As the front heads back north, overall improvement is expected from south to north. VFR conditions are forecast to return area wide from south to north during the afternoon and early evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...HAL  684 FXUS61 KALY 150625 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 225 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms (Level 1 of 5) for areas mainly south of I-90 for Friday. Also, increased wind speeds/gusts for a brief period Friday morning with strong south to southeast winds developing amid rapid pressure falls and rain showers ahead of incoming warm front. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong cold front will bring gusty winds, showers and a few thunderstorms to the region for Friday, followed by blustery and unseasonably chilly conditions for Friday night into Saturday along with a few mountain snow showers. 2) Dry weather with temperatures to near seasonable levels Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After a dry and pleasant day today, phasing upper level energy across the central U.S. will track east, with a strong cold front approaching from the west Friday as low pressure tracks along the St. Lawrence River Valley. A warm front will approach from the southwest late tonight, with bands of rain developing ahead of the front at the leading edge of a strengthening low level jet. Strong forcing and some elevated instability will allow for some locally heavy downpours and rumbles of thunder to occur toward and shortly after daybreak Friday, especially across the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks, Capital/Saratoga and Lake George Region into southern VT. Latest NBM 6-hour probs for >1" rainfall ending 8 AM Friday are ~10-20% across portions of the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. Although flooding is not expected at this time, some ponding of water in poor drainage areas could make for a wet Friday morning commute in these areas. As the low level jet translates overhead around and shortly after daybreak, strong south to southeast winds will be possible across portions of the Capital Region and within some north/south oriented valleys. Latest REFs suggest some gusts of 30-40 mph could occur in these areas through mid Friday morning before decreasing as the core of the low level jet passes by and weakens. As the cold front approaches from the west during the afternoon hours, some surface-based destabilization may occur, especially if some breaks of sun can develop. Latest HREFs and REFs suggest SB CAPES of 100-250 J/kg may develop for areas south of I-90. Strengthening mid level winds will allow 0-6 km shear to increase to 50-60 KT amid this instability, parallel to the incoming front. This suggests the possibility of a low topped line of showers/thunderstorms to develop which could produce a few instances of damaging wind gusts. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for areas mainly south of I-90 accordingly. Even in the absence of convection, as the front passes through, some wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible Friday evening. In the wake of the front, blustery conditions will develop Friday night and continue into Saturday with northwest winds gusting 25-35 mph, perhaps a bit stronger Saturday morning as mixing deepens. Some lingering moisture in the wake of the front, partially from Lake Effect, will allow for some snow showers across higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT late Friday night into Saturday morning, where some coatings to less than one half inch of snow accumulation will be possible. A few flurries/sprinkles could even occur across the eastern Catskills, the Berkshires, and at lower elevations such as the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region Saturday morning. High temperatures Saturday should only reach the 30s to lower 40s across higher elevations, with mainly 40s for valley regions. Combined with brisk winds, wind chill temperatures ("feels-like" temperatures) will be in the 20s/lower 30s for higher terrain, and 30s in valleys through much of the day. KEY MESSAGE 2... After an unseasonably cold morning Sunday with low temps mainly in the 20s, temperatures should moderate into the 50s for most areas by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to moderate to seasonable levels early next week with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s in valleys. Generally dry conditions are expected through early next week at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z/Fri, mainly VFR conditions are expected despite Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL through mid morning. However, due to upslope conditions, MVFR Cigs are likely at KPSF through daybreak. Also can not rule out a few brief periods of MVFR Cigs at KALB and KGFL. Skies should become mostly clear by late morning and continuing through late afternoon, with increasing high and mid level clouds expected after sunset. West to northwest winds 8-12 KT with a few gusts of 20-25 KT will continue through daybreak. Winds will then veer into the northwest to north at similar speeds through mid morning, then north to northeast at 5-10 KT this afternoon. Winds will then become light/variable around and after sunset, becoming south to southeast at KALB at 5-10 KT toward 06Z/Fri. Outlook... Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53/24 AVIATION...24  801 FXUS63 KJKL 150626 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 226 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain mild through Thursday, while showers are possible at times into Friday. - A few thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rain and strong wind gusts are possible this evening. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - likely the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge extended across portions of the Southeastern Conus and into sections of the Gulf. Further west an upper level low was over the Four Corners vicinity. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/MCV was moving through the OH Valley and interacting with a boundary sagging toward the Commonwealth. With the ridge in place to the south, it was another day of record or near record warmth in eastern KY with highs having reached into the 80s in most locations. At JKL, the high so far has been 86, breaking the previous record of 82 from 2017/2021. Showers and a few storms associated with the sagging cold front and the shortwave trough/MCV passing by to the north have moved into northern sections of the region over the past couple of hours. Low level lapse rates are analyzed around 6.5 to 7C/km in the north with mid level lapse rates a bit on the meager side in the 5.5 to 6C/km range. MLCAPE across the region is analyzed on the modest side in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range while effective shear per SPC mesoanalysis page is on the order of 25 to 30KT in the north. PW meanwhile was recently analyzed near 1.3 inches along the VA border and around 1.9 inches in the far northwest. Upstream of the area, a wind gust to 39 mph was observed at the KY Mesonet site in northern Fayette County. This evening and tonight, the shortwave trough/MCV working through the OH Valley will move east of the area during the evening while the upper low initially over the Four Corners region should move into northeastern CO. Meanwhile further north, a shortwave will move southeast from Alberta across sections of Saskatchewan and into Manitoba and the Northern Plains. At the same time, the frontal zone will sag into eastern KY and stall out over the middle of the region. With PW expected to remain elevated and increase to the 1.9 to 2.1 inch range or in the 97th to 99th percentile range, if any training of thunderstorms were to occur it could result in locally heavier rain. With some modest instability in place as well, a storm or two this evening could result in a strong wind gust. In general, this potential is greatest near and north of the Mtn Parkway. WPC has a slight ERO in the northern sections of the area while northern areas are also in a marginal SWODY1. Otherwise, near and behind the sagging front, lowering clouds and patchy fog or stratus build down should occur as the night progresses and this will linger into Thursday morning with the boundary in the vicinity. Showers remain possible tonight near the boundary as well. For Thursday and Thursday night, the upper low that will have reached CO late tonight should weaken to an open wave and eventually merge with the trough to its north during this timeframe. This resulting 500 mb trough axis should reach Ontario to the western Great Lakes to Central Plains through late Thursday night. As this occurs, a sfc low should track from sections of the Plains to the Central to eastern Great Lakes through Thursday night. The boundary that will have stalled over eastern KY will lift back north as a warm front, while a cold front enters the Commonwealth on Thursday night. Shower chances linger into Thursday nearthe boundary before it moves north Thursday evening. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as well. South of the boundary, temperatures will remain mild, with highs likely to climb back well into the 80s for Thursday highs. With the front approaching, winds and gusts should increase late particularly in the west. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 616 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 When the long term forecast period opens on Friday morning, Eastern Kentucky will be on the precipice of a significant change in airmass. A robust, positively-tilted trough stretching from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest will dig deeper into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys as the day progresses. At the surface, this translates to a deepening cyclone over the eastern Great Lakes and a sharp cold front trailing behind it. That cold front will be the focal point of Friday's forecast, with sensible weather details such as high temperatures and wind direction dependent upon a given place's position relative to the boundary. The entire CWA will experience mild AM lows in the upper 60s on Friday morning, when forecast guidance collectively resolves the boundary off to the west in the Bluegrass. Pre-frontal surface winds will be out of the southwest. So will the flow aloft, and this vertical continuity suggests that there will be warm air advection ongoing on Friday in places out ahead of the front. FROPA has trended a little bit later in the day, and Friday's forecast highs have accordingly risen a few degrees towards the upper 70s in our easternmost counties. In counties further to the north and west, there will be a shorter window of time where this WAA overlaps with the diurnal warming cycle. So, high temperatures in places like the Bluegrass will only be a few degrees warmer than those lows (in the upper 60s/lower 70s). Those highs will also likely occur much earlier in the day than usual, as once FROPA occurs, diurnal heating will become suppressed by cloud cover and a sharp wind shift. Surface winds should shift towards a westerly and then northwesterly orientation as FROPA occurs from west to east on Friday. Frontal and orographic lift will combine to yield additional light rain shower chances along and behind the boundary, but the bigger story with this boundary will be the robust cold air advection that takes place behind it. Given the tightening pressure gradient of the parent synoptic system, Friday afternoon's post-frontal winds will be quite breezy. The REFS high-resolution ensemble resolves a 50-80% chance of wind gusts in excess of 25 mph across most of the JKL CWA in this time frame. When this criteria is lowered to >20 mph, the probabilities jump to near 100%. If it is raised above 30 mph, the odds dwindle off significantly. While wind advisory criteria is unlikely to be met, the magnitude of these winds reinforces the notion that there will be an efficient cold air advection regime in the wake of Friday afternoon's frontal passage. Expect a significant drop in temperatures to occur on Friday evening, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide by sunset. Once the sun goes down and solar insolation goes away, the temperature plummet will continue. The entire CWA should wake up to temperatures in the 40s on Saturday morning, but lingering cloud cover and some upsloped rain showers should prevent it from getting much colder than that. The same cannot be said for Saturday night/Sunday morning, which looks to be the coldest night of the autumn season thus far. As a post-frontal surface high pressure system builds into the CWA on Saturday morning, winds will shift to a more northerly orientation. This will bring an end to any orographically-enhanced post-frontal rain chances, and a much cooler/drier continental airmass will move into the region in the wake of the precipitation. Highs will struggle to get much warmer than the 50s, and dewpoints will plummet into the 30s on Saturday afternoon. Diurnal mixing should work to erode any lingering cloud cover by sunset, which should set the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight. NBM ensemble data resolves a 60-90% chance of temperatures dropping below 36 degrees across most of the JKL CWA overnight. The most sheltered and shaded valleys could make a run at the 32 degree mark, but the probability of occurrence drops to below 40% at this threshold. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions. Saturday night is poised to meet this criteria, so agricultural interests and recreational gardeners are encouraged to monitor for potential product issuances as the time approaches. Temperatures will be slow to make a full recovery back above the 70 degree mark next week, although a gradual warm-up is expected. The postfrontal high should shift east on Sunday as the mid/upper level trough axis aloft swings through New England. Antecedent forecast thinking is that a building ridge will allow temperatures to moderate back into the 60s under fair skies by early next week. However, some of the more recent pieces of guidance (namely members of the Euro ensemble) are developing a cut-off low over the Carolinas in this time frame. That feature could block the eastward propagation of that ridging, and it would cause temperatures to stay on the lower side of the forecast envelope early next week. Nevertheless, fog should become favored over frost in the valleys at night as temperatures warm. This is typical for autumn in Eastern Kentucky, and next week's forecast features temperatures much closer to normal than what we are experiencing at the present moment. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Light to moderate rain lingered mainly in portions of southeast KY at the start of the period-- the remains of a line of thunderstorms which moved through much of the area. The precipitation is ahead of a very slow moving cold front moving south into KY. Many locations were seeing IFR or worse conditions where the precip moved through, and especially near/north of I-64. However, some places were still VFR, especially over south central KY. The remaining precip will be tapering off, but largely the status quo is expected for conditions into the day, with some variability up and down. There still could be some additional showers as well. The cold front will stall in eastern KY during the day and then turn back north as a warm front by evening. As the front heads back north, overall improvement is expected from south to north. VFR conditions are forecast to return area wide from south to north during the afternoon and early evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...HAL  741 FXAK67 PAJK 150635 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1035 PM AKDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - A larger, more impactful system to move into the Gulf Wednesday night, impacting SE AK overnight into Thursday and through the start of the weekend. - A Flood Watch is in effect for the southern panhandle with rain rates as high as 0.25 to 0.3 inches per hour possible. - Winds will continue to increase Thursday into the weekend. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the southern panhandle. && .SHORT TERM...A strong system in the western Gulf will bring embedded lows up into the eastern Gulf, bringing multiple rounds of heavy rainfall associated with fronts moving through. The first wave is expected to move in overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, bringing some higher rainfall to the central and northern panhandle initially before pushing eastward through the afternoon, alongside some elevated winds associated with the front across the outer coastal areas, southern panhandle, and up to around the Juneau area. The next shortwave will push up into the panhandle Thursday evening, with the main push of moisture and strongest setup bringing heavy rainfall into the central and southern panhandle, with the highest rainfall amounts expected south of Frederick Sound through early Friday morning. This second front will bring more impactful winds across the area, with potential for 20-30 mph winds and gusts of 40- 50 mph in some areas as the front pushes through Thursday night. Overall the forecast remains on track for this system, though the increased gusty winds and continued confidence on the area of heaviest rainfall brings the possibility of isolated landslides now for locations south of Frederick Sound. For more information, read the Hydrology section below and keep updated with any updates to the Flood Watch products at weather.gov/juneau. .LONG TERM...The start of the long term looks to remain active with the low pressure continuing to persist. This will allow for clouds and precipitation to continue to impact the area. This low eventually dissipates while a stronger low looks to pass south of the area and high pressure builds in Canada. Behind this low, high pressure is expected to move in to the Gulf behind this stronger low which may allow for us to see a break Sunday evening into Monday morning. Headed into the start of next week, ensemble guidance wants to bring another low into the western Gulf. The main difference between EPS and GEFS guidance is where this low comes from. EPS wants to bring a low up from the south on Monday and have it merge with a low that is expected to persist in the Bering Sea before moving towards the Cook Inlet area Tuesday. This low then tracks into Prince William Sound Tuesday evening into Wednesday. GEFS guidance wants to bring the low from the Bering Sea on Monday and track it across the Alaska Peninsula and Cook Inlet before moving remaining offshore near Prince William Sound. && .AVIATION.../Through 6z Friday/...Widespread deteriorating conditions expected as a strong occluding front moves towards the panhandle. The winds associated with this front are just reaching the outer coast of the panhandle at the time of this discussion, with PASI and PAHY already gusting to 30 kts. The worst flight conditions through Thursday will centered around the southern terminals, from Sitka to Petersburg southward to Ketchikan and over to Klawock with MVFR condition and periods of IFR visibilities due to heavy rainfall, sustained winds 20 to 30 kts with gusts up to 40 kts, and periods of strong LLWS upwards of 50 kts near 2 kft increasing through 00z. Moderate to heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and LLWS will spread NNE'ward into the rest of the panhandle as well, but conditions are expected to stay mostly MVFR to VFR with gusts up to 30 kts and LLWS around 35 to 45 kts after 12z Thursday. Behind the initial warm front moving in overnight, a brief break in heavy rainfall may be possible for the southern panhandle before the cold front sends a second surge of moisture and winds into the panhandle mid morning. Behind the front, VIS and CIGs are expected to stay relatively lowered as another surface disturbance jumps into the panhandle by the very end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Outer waters: Main changes to the ongoing forecast is the expansion of storm force winds off the coast southwest of the Fairweather Range beginning tonight and continuing into the morning hours of Thursday. As this front pushes northward, the area of highest winds will shift near Cape St. Elias before diminishing. As for the rest of the front, widespread strong gales for much of the outside waters will persist through the late morning, before focusing around the Dixon Entrance area through Friday morning. Long duration gale force winds for Dixon Entrance are due to multiple wave of energy moving up along the front. Wave height corresponding with highest wind speeds could reach between 23-25 ft, both from ESE wind waves and 20 ft at 11 seconds southerly swell, maximizing Thursday morning. Expecting to see 15-20 ft waves in the Dixon Entrance area Thursday and Thursday night, largely driven by a longer fetch up Clarence Strait and persistent gale force winds. Inside Waters: A strong atmospheric river moves into over the panhandle beginning tonight, with inside channel wind speeds beginning to react substantially early Thursday morning. Expect to see largely strong breezes to near gales in most inner channel waters with the exception of Glacier Bay and Northern Lynn Canal. For those areas, expecting aloft winds to be too weak to meaningfully increase wind speeds greater than 15 knots, with Lynn Canal likely flipping northerly as the front moves northward through the central panhandle. On the secondary system moving in on Thursday night, may see shifting winds on the north two quadrants of the low, Stephens Passage area and a majority of Chatham Strait. Extreme southern Chatham Strait (near ocean entrances), Sumner Strait, and northern Clarence Strait are all expected to see a rapid wind shift from SE to the WSW, possibly associated with convective storms, gusty winds, and a few lightning strikes. && .HYDROLOGY.../Wednesday night through Friday morning/ A strong incoming atmospheric river will move into the panhandle beginning early Thursday morning and continuing through Friday morning. Two distinct frontal features make up a bulk of the heavy rain for the central and southern panhandle: The first during Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon, and the next Thursday evening into Friday morning. Confidence for the precipitation amounts and gusty conditions following into Thursday night has increased, with guidance narrowing in on an area extending from Petersburg and Wrangell down to Ketchikan and Metlakatla. IVT values look to range between 500-750 kg/ms, with more confidence on the area moving into the panhandle leaning towards 750 kg/ms for both waves, with the second wave still appearing to push from the south into the southern panhandle. Ketchikan and Metlakatla continue to be the target of opportunity here, with rain rates possibly exceeding 0.3 inches per hour, and up to 0.25 inches elsewhere. These rates are expected to be sufficient enough for at least minor flooding on small creeks and streams, particularly given the duration of the event. Alongside these heavy rainfall amounts looking to be around 5 year return intervals for the southern panhandle, the increased confidence on elevated winds of20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40-50 mph associated with the second wave brings the possibility of isolated landslides occurring in areas south of Frederick Sound. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ322. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ323-325-327- 328. Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for AKZ326>330-332. Wind Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ329- 330-332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ644-663-664-671-672. Gale Warning for PKZ021-031-034-036-641>643-651-652-661-662. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-032-033-035-053. && $$ SHORT TERM...Contino LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...ZTK MARINE...NC HYDROLOGY...Contino Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  908 FXUS61 KBTV 150638 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 238 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 235 AM EDT Thursday... Risk for gusty winds on Friday has increased, mainly in the Champlain Valley. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 235 AM EDT Thursday... 1. After a quiet day today, a storm system brings gusty winds, rain, and mountain snow Friday through Saturday. 2. Temperatures trend near to below normal Sunday night through Thursday with mostly dry conditions prevailing. && .DISCUSSION... As of 235 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Other than some patchy drizzle/fog early this morning, expect today will be a dry day with skies becoming partly sunny. Winds will subside as high pressure builds across the region. Highs will be seasonable though on the chilly side as most spots will top out in the 50s. Things become much more interesting thereafter as an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes tonight into Friday, eventually swinging over our region on Saturday. The associated surface low will lift through the St Lawrence Valley, then move east-northeast through the Crown of Maine and toward the Canadian Maritimes. Moisture will stream northward on deep southwest flow ahead of the trough, resulting in increasing clouds tonight. Given the dry airmass that will be in place, rain will be a little slower to develop, but expect widespread precipitation to develop by daybreak Friday. A potent 55+ kt jet wrapping around the surface low at 850 mb will move overhead on Friday, leading to very windy conditions atop mountain summits; gusts of 55-65 mph are likely. Winds at lower levels are a bit harder to determine, but note that several of the CAMs indicate we could see a some breaks in the rain mid-day Friday with the main swath of rain lifting north of the international border. This means less potential hindrance for mixing, increasing potential of gusts of 30 mph or more at lower elevations. The Champlain Valley would be particularly susceptible to strong gusts due to channeling of the south winds up the Valley. Note that the 15/00z HREF indicates 85-100% probabilities of gusts greater than 40 mph along Lake Champlain and the eastern side of the Champlain Valley, from the international border down toward Hinesburg and Bristol. The northern slopes of the northern Greens have similar chances of strong winds, with 90+% in locations such as Newport, Montgomery, and Glover. Have bumped up gusts with this forecast package, though have kept them below Wind Advisory level (46 mph). However, it looks like some places could get close to needing an Advisory; subsequent shifts will need to monitor trends closely. The surface low pressure slides by just to our north Friday afternoon, allowing us to nudge into the 50s to close to 60F. However, once the low moves to our east, its attendant cold front will quickly sweep through our area, bringing much colder temperatures later Friday and Friday night. The incoming airmass will also be quite dry, but expect there will be enough moisture around to squeeze out a bit of mountain snow later Friday night into Saturday morning before precipitation ends Saturday afternoon. With temperatures dropping into the mid 20s to mid 30s by Saturday morning, even the lower elevations could see a few flakes, though any accumulation looks to remain limited to 1500 ft and above. Even there, though, expect an inch at most given the decreasing moisture and relatively warm ground. Saturday will see decreasing clouds and much colder temperatures. Highs will only reach into the mid 30s to low 40s, and expect the summits to remain in the teens and 20s through the day. Winds will still be gusty though not quite as strong as Friday. However, they'll be enough to produce wind chills in the teens and 20s Saturday morning, with the higher summits seeing wind chills in the single digits. Anyone who plans to be recreating in the mountains should prepare for wet, windy, and bitterly cold conditions Friday through Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure over the mid-Atlantic is expected to strengthen Sunday night and Monday, expanding into New England to start the work week. Global deterministic models differ on the exact placement of this high pressure, which could have some minor impacts for coastal New England, but up in northern New York and Vermont, dry weather seems very likely Sunday night through at least next Thursday despite a couple week frontal boundaries that swing through the region. High temperatures each day should remain around seasonable values in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Nights will remain on the chilly side with lows in the upper 20s to lower 40s due to the clearer nights and decoupled boundary layer winds under high pressure. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions generally prevail across the region early this morning, mainly in the form of low ceilings. SLK features more persistent IFR ceilings, though some transient IFR cigs have been observed at MPV as well. All terminals are expected to improve to VFR by 08Z-13Z Thursday, then VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of the forecast period as cloud cover scatters out under high pressure and drier air. Winds currently out of the northwest will have on and off gusts to 15-25 knots this morning, decreasing towards the afternoon. Winds will make a turn out of the east/northeast, depending on the site, throughout the day today. By the end of the day, some sites can even see more southeasterly winds, 5-10 knots. Outlook... Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... North to northwest winds of 15 to 25 kt will continue through early this morning before gradually winding down by mid day. After briefly calmer conditions this afternoon and tonight, south winds will increase again on Friday, sustained 20 to 30 kt with higher gusts expected. && .CLIMATE... Daily low maximum temperatures will likely be broken on Saturday. Current records are indicated below at some climate sites in our region: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: October 17: KBTV: 42/1970 KPBG: 44/2015 KSLK: 36/1970 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings DISCUSSION...Storm/Hastings AVIATION...Storm MARINE...NWS BTV CLIMATE...NWS BTV  128 FXUS62 KTAE 150643 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 243 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Patchy dense fog is possible from the early to mid-morning in the Suwanee Valley, Flint River Valley, and the FL Panhandle today. Another round of fog is likely again on Friday morning. - A strong cold frontal passage on Friday night will lead to gusty winds this weekend to 35 mph over land and 40 knots over coastal waters that may impact hurricane recovery efforts, including compromised trees leading to power outages, drones, improperly secured roof tarps, loose outdoor items, and hazardous boating. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 through Friday, turning sharply cooler this weekend with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure at the surface and aloft will gradually breakdown by Friday as a cold front approaches. The pattern will remain favorable for patchy dense fog this morning and Friday morning across portions of the region. Highs will be above normal in the mid-80s to around 90 through Friday with some humidity in the air as well. Cannot rule out a brief shower Friday or Friday night mainly closer to the coast. A strong but dry cold frontal passage is remains on tap Friday night, with a much cooler and drier air mass this weekend. Breezy conditions in the wake of the front may impact outdoor events and hurricane recovery efforts this weekend. Wind gusts up to 35 mph over land and 40 knots over the coastal waters are a good bet, especially on Saturday, with winds remaining elevated into early next week. Deep layer ridging over the region early next week should maintain dry weather with warming temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas of fog expected to develop within the Suwanee Valley overnight possibly reaching VLD before sunrise and kept tempo IFR vsbys here 9-13Z. Also, patchy fog may develop north of the Panhandle coast towards dawn with ECP falling to MVFR. After dawn, conds will return to VFR at all sites through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be light to calm overnight, becoming east to east-southeast during the day then calm once again after 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Tranquil boating conditions expected into Friday with daily sea breezes. On Friday night, a cold front will blast across the waters, ushering in a sharp increase in fresh to strong northerly breezes with gale-force wind gusts. Winds are expected to remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Fair dispersion across most of the region today, except pockets of low dispersion through this afternoon in Southwest GA. On Friday, high dispersion chances increase ahead of a cold front. Cannot rule out a brief shower closer to the coast on Friday or on Friday night, otherwise dry conditions with minRH percentage values in the mid-30s to low 40s today and Friday. Light transport winds of 5 to 10 mph generally out of the east can be expected today, then clocking around to the west and increasing on Friday ahead of the cold front. A strong cold frontal passage is expected Friday night, with breezy conditions to following for this weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 through Friday, the decreasing to the 70s this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 With the recent rainfall, several rivers are observed/forecast in action stage. The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce may eventually go into minor flood, but confidence remains on the lower side for now. No additional rainfall or flooding is expected over the upcoming week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 66 88 63 / 0 0 10 0 Panama City 86 68 85 62 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 87 64 85 56 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 88 64 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 88 66 87 63 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 88 69 88 68 / 0 0 20 20 Apalachicola 82 70 83 66 / 0 10 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...LF  148 FXUS64 KOUN 150644 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 144 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 137 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds possible this morning and afternoon, primarily south of I-40. - Multiple rounds of heavy rain expected between now and Thursday afternoon with an increasing flash flood risk. - Colder and drier airmass arrives late Thursday, with weather becoming cool and pleasant by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Thunderstorms are expected to continue through most of the day Thursday. Over the last 24 hours, several locations have received over 3 inches of rainfall. Locations across the I-40 corridor west of I-35, have received 6-12 inches of rain over the last 24 hours. Additional rounds of storms that move into these area will certainly exacerbate the flooding concerns. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches will be possible, especially if storms continue to train over the same area. As far as the severe concern through the morning, it will be limited to western north Texas and along the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma. The overall severe risk is low at this time. A strong cold front will sweep through the area Thursday, with gusty winds in the wake of the frontal boundary. High temperatures for the day will likely occur right ahead of the cold front. Additional thunderstorms are possible tomorrow ahead of the cold front, generally south of I-40. These thunderstorm chances will decrease from north to south with the frontal boundary push. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Much cooler temperatures are expected behind the aforementioned cold front. Overnight lows Friday morning will be in the 40s (north) and 50s (south). High temperatures Friday and Saturday will struggle to get above 60 F, as the cold air advection will continue during this timeframe. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s to upper 30s across the entire area. There is some signal for frost potential on Saturday morning across northern Oklahoma. Dry conditions are expected through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Colder temperatures will continue through the weekend, despite winds returning to southerly by Sunday. A warming trend will continue through the middle parts of the week, as mid-level heights increase. Dry conditions are also expected through the middle of the week as well. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Numerous rounds of thunderstorms is expected across the area through the overnight and into Thursday afternoon. A cold front will push through the area Thursday, which should help to push thunderstorm potential southward through the day. With any stronger thunderstorm, IFR to locally LIFR conditions may be possible. Despite thunderstorms, widespread MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue through most of the period. A cold front will shift the winds from from southerly to northerly tomorrow, with gusty winds in the front wake. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 76 47 58 39 / 100 10 0 0 Hobart OK 76 48 60 37 / 80 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 81 51 61 40 / 90 40 0 0 Gage OK 69 42 57 32 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 76 45 58 36 / 80 0 0 0 Durant OK 88 54 64 44 / 60 80 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>031- 033>042-044>046-050. TX...Flood Watch until 1 PMCDT this afternoon for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...13  466 FXUS63 KDVN 150648 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 148 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A widespread rain will occur through early evening with possibly a rumble of thunder. No severe storms are expected. - A strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight bringing very windy conditions into Friday. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible. - Frost is a certainty across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. The probability of a light freeze north of Highway 30 are now 50-60 percent. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 146 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Dry easterly flow is delaying the onset of rain. The lift is strong so once rain begins developing the areal coverage will increase quickly. The strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight turning winds around to the northwest. All models show a trop fold moving through the area late Thursday night and Friday. Said feature will result in very windy conditions from midnight through early Friday afternoon. Gusts to 40 mph will be common with localized gusts to 45 mph. The probabilities of wind headlines are currently at 25-30 percent. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 146 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday night through Wednesday Assessment...a certainty of frost late Friday night into Saturday morning. The probability of a light freeze occurring north of Highway 30 is now 50-60 percent. Clearing skies and light winds will result in frost occurring Friday night into Saturday morning. Overall probabilities of a light freeze continue to increase north of Highway 30. Freeze probabilities for those areas are now 50-60 percent. Frost headlines will be needed in the next 36 hours for the Friday night into Saturday morning time frame. Trends will continue to be watched regarding the possibility of freeze headlines. Frost will also be possible late Saturday night and Sunday morning east of the Mississippi. Unlike Friday night, it is expected to be more isolated. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Dry easterly flow will delay the onset of rain until closer to 12z/15 but widespread MVFR conditions will be seen. After 12z/15 a large rain shield will move across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois with IFR conditions and pockets of LIFR. Strong cold front will change winds around to the northwest after 00z/16 with winds of 15-25 knots. IFR/MVFR conditions will continue. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...08  629 FXUS66 KMTR 150652 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1152 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a cooling trend begins Sunday into next week - Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and Friday - Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Tonight through Friday) Near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations, particularly the North Bay Interior Mountains, through Friday. A positively tilted upper level ridge remains over Oregon and Northern/Central California while a cut-off low lingers over Southern California. This setup promotes light to moderate offshore winds across the region with the potential for more moderate to gusty offshore winds across the higher elevations. Model guidance keeps gusts across the elevated terrain peaking between 20 to 30 mph with locally stronger gusts possible across the highest peaks (e.g. Mt. St. Helena). The GFS and HRRR are both in agreement that the SFO- WMC gradient will peak around -9 mb Thursday morning and -10 mb Thursday night into Friday. The NAM continues to be an outlier and suggests the gradient could peak around -14 mb but looking closer into their forecast wind gusts still keeps gusts in a similar, but slightly stronger range, of 25 to 35 mph. Very dry conditions are expected across the higher elevations during both the daytime and overnight hours. Much of the region will see daytime RH in the 10s to 20s with poor to very poor overnight recoveries with the worst recoveries across the higher elevations. Given the very dry conditions and potential for offshore winds, any spark has the potential to start a fire. Remember, one less spark one less wildfire. Warmer temperatures continue Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s to low 90s on Thursday and upper 80s to 90s on Friday. Patchy Moderate HeatRisk is expected on Thursday but becomes more widespread across urban areas on Friday. If you are outdoors during peak heating, make sure you are drinking plenty of water and taking frequent breaks in the shade. The marine layer remains mixed out through the short term due to the presence of the ridge so expect minimal cloud coverage overnight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Offshore winds decrease by Friday afternoon/evening as upper level ridging weakens and broad troughing returns to the region. High temperatures Saturday will still be warm in the 80s to low 90s but cooler temperatures return Sunday into next week. By Sunday, broad troughing returns to the region with temperatures cooling into the 70s to low 80s. Fall weather returns in force next week as we get our first potential rainmaker of the season. This low pressure system looks to originate from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring much cooler, moister air into the region as the surface low weakens and moves into California next week. Highs will be seasonal to below normal in the 60s to low 70s across the interior and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. Rain chances increase Tuesday through late week with wetting rains (>0.10") likely across the Central Coast and potentially Santa Cruz County/the South Bay. Light rain is possible across the rest of the Bay Area but does not look to meet wetting rain criteria at this time. Guidance is showing a low (<10%) chance of thunderstorms next week so that will be something to keep an eye on as this event gets closer in time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Generally VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with some high resolution models depicting patchy coastal stratus developing tonight. Low confidence in HAF getting fog and low stratus. If it does happen, the most likely period for development would be 08-11Z before offshore winds mix out the lower layers. Light winds persist overnight, before a moderate offshore push in the interior Thursday morning, balanced by a gentle onshore flow developing in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light winds overnight will turn offshore Thursday morning before moderate northwest flow resumes in the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Light to gentle offshore winds persist overnight into Thursday morning before the moderate northwest flow resumes afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Moderate seas persist across the outer waters through Friday while the inner waters see slight to moderate seas. During this time frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which should lead to building seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 502 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. The main areas of concern will be for the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills. The strongest winds look to be over the North Bay Interior Mountains where gusts 30-40 mph are possible, perhaps up to 45mph or higher for the highest elevations. The East Bay Hills will be breezy as well, but may be closer to 25-35 mph with locally higher gust for exposed ridges and areas of higher terrain. Both areas will be dry with poor overnight RH recovery, which combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  780 FXUS62 KMLB 150656 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 256 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Rain chances gradually rise today into Friday, with temperatures slightly above normal. - A wet and windy weekend is forecast behind a passing front, with conditions persisting into early next week. Wind Advisories are likely and flooding concerns return, especially along the southern coast. - Dangerous boating conditions, high surf, and moderate beach erosion are expected behind the front this weekend and into early next week. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water beginning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today-Friday...Broad area of high pressure north of the area will gradually shift eastward as a mid/upper level trough moving into the Central U.S. pushes a cold front into the southeast states. Onshore winds will continue across the area, but will weaken into tomorrow, with easterly winds increasing to around 10 mph this afternoon and then dropping to 5-10 mph on Friday. The onshore flow at the surface combined with S/SE winds aloft on the western edge of a mid level ridge transports deeper moisture northward across the area through late week, leading to rising rain chances across the area. For today, rain chances (20-50%) remain mostly south of a line from Orlando to the Cape, where greatest moisture (PW values of 1.7-2.0") will reside. Isolated onshore moving showers will be possible along the coast, mainly south of the Cape this morning, and then isolated to scattered showers and a few storms are forecast to develop south of Orlando into this afternoon. Into Friday, PW values of 1.9-2.1" overspread all of east central Florida, with coverage of showers and storms increasing (PoPs 50-60%), becoming scattered to numerous primarily into the afternoon and early evening hours. Main storm threats each day will be occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds up to 45 mph and locally heavy rainfall up to 1-3". Temperatures climb to slightly above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Wednesday...Weather conditions rapidly deteriorate into the weekend as trough aloft shifts into the eastern U.S. and pushes front through the area. Breezy to windy conditions quickly develop into Saturday as northerly winds increase to 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 30-40 mph (strongest along the coast). Wind Advisories will likely be needed for the coast into Saturday/Saturday night, and may even expand across inland areas during the day Sunday as northeast winds look to strengthen from tightening pressure gradient between front to the south and strong ridge to the north. Some forecast uncertainty does come into play later in the weekend into next week, as models show a cut-off low forming from the advancing trough and developing a strong area of low pressure at the surface either near (ECMWF) or well offshore (GFS) the Mid-Atlantic coast. Exact timing/location of this developing feature could lead to some differences in wind direction and overall speed. However, current forecast leans toward the GFS, which has more model support currently, maintaining breezy to windy NE winds through at least early next week. Models now show advancing front will push out some of the deeper moisture across the area, even as winds quickly veer onshore. Rain chances remain high up to 50-70% for much of the area Saturday. However, the GFS now has PW values falling below 1.5" by Sunday. Still, the strong onshore winds will still produce rounds of scattered to numerous showers that will be able to push onshore through late weekend into early next week. A few storms will also continue to be possible, mainly south of the Cape where some lingering instability will persist. Persistent bands of showers and any storms could lead to locally heavy to excessive rainfall, producing flooding issues, mainly across the Treasure Coast. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (Level 1 of 4) exists across this portion of east central FL into the weekend. Cooler temperatures move in behind the front, with highs dropping to as low as the mid 70 to low 80s Sunday, and then slowly warming but remaining near to below normal through the middle of next week. The strong onshore winds will lead to a prolonged period of dangerous beach and boating conditions. High surf, with breaking waves of 9-12 ft over multiple tidal cycles will contribute to moderate beach erosion, especially north of Cape Canaveral. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today-Friday...Favorable boating conditions persist through Friday. High pressure north of the area shifts east through late week, as a cold front moves into the Southeast United States. This will allow onshore winds to continue but weaken, with easterly winds up to 10- 15 knots today diminishing to 5-10 knots tomorrow. Seas will remain around 2-3 feet. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the waters as will a few storms, mainly south of the Cape today, with coverage of this activity increasing across the entire coastal waters into Friday. Saturday-Tuesday...Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are then forecast to rapidly develop behind a passing front into the weekend. N/NE winds increase to 20-30 knots across the waters Saturday and then strengthen to around 25-30 knots across the entire waters on Sunday, with frequent gusts to gale force likely. Winds of this intensity are then expected to continue through early next week keeping dangerous boating conditions in place. These stronger winds will quickly build seas up to 10-14 feet by Saturday night and remain around that height through early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered storms will also persist across the waters, with this activity continuing to push toward the coast and onshore, especially south of the Cape. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Isolated showers over the Atlantic waters continues tonight, with a shower or two potentially making it to the coast from VRB southward through tonight. Light and variable winds tonight will become east and increase to near 10 KT by mid to late morning on Thursday. Rain chances increase across the south into Thursday morning. Have maintained VCSH from VRB southward after 12Z/14Z for rounds of isolated to scattered showers, and have added VCTS starting at 18Z for those terminals. Included VCSH at MLB starting at 18Z. Any lingering shower/storm activity should move out of dissipate after 01Z. Winds will then become light and variable once again Thursday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 73 87 71 / 10 10 40 20 MCO 90 74 90 74 / 10 10 60 20 MLB 87 76 88 73 / 20 20 60 40 VRB 88 75 89 72 / 30 30 60 40 LEE 90 73 89 72 / 0 0 60 20 SFB 89 73 90 73 / 10 10 60 20 ORL 89 74 90 74 / 10 10 60 20 FPR 88 75 88 72 / 40 30 60 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Watson  827 FXUS63 KIWX 150657 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 257 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain possible today, mainly west of I-69. - There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms (mainly wind) along and south of US Route 24 this evening. Confidence in severe weather is low. - Turning much cooler and windy for Friday with some lake effect rain showers expected. Watching for frost chances, which appear the most possible Sunday morning, but Saturday morning's chances cannot be ruled out. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure slides eastward this morning across the northern Great Lakes. This allowed drier air to seep into the area behind the slowly southward-moving cold front from Wednesday. This front quickly turns around into a northward-moving warm front today as a deep upper low forces a surface low northward along the western extension of the baroclinic zone down to the Southern Plains. So, the attention turns to the timing of the surface warm sector's arrival to see if we can get surface-based or only elevated convection. The GFS still has areas of large scale ascent moving through the area this afternoon whereas the ECMWF appears to have most of the better lift moving north of the area. The drier the low levels can get and maybe lesser cloud cover before sunrise would be better for instability formation. Indications in both the NAM and the HRRR are that the surface warm front waits until 2 to 4z to get into our southern 1 to 2 rows of zones, which would allow a short time period (1 to 3 hours?) for surface-based convection after that. The main ingredient of concern is the shear, which the HRRR indicates has around 45 kts of EBWD shear. Now, because the low levels up to 850 mb are essentially saturated, LCLs are sub-1000m, but instability is 500 J/kg or below. So, perhaps there could be some shallow supercells or cells with embedded rotation. With the moist PWATs around 1.8 inches, heavy rain rates could occur, but cell motions are rather fast likely limiting overall flood threat; that and the fact that we've been dry for so long. The other possibility would be a moisture loaded core- collapsing damaging wind threat, but that weak of instability may also limit that threat. The cold front slides through overnight meaning the rain threat is out of the area by 12z Friday. The aforementioned upper low is squeezed northeastward out ahead of a diving upper low from Canada. On it's back side is a strong 1040 mb surface high indicative of relatively cold air that its bringing with it. This brings in a couple of hazards that we'll get to describing here including lake effect rain, gusty winds, and potentially a frost chance. For the lake effect rain, the lake needs to get some instability going first as well as low level convergence and a return of low level moisture behind the cold front. Northwest wind convergence combines with these features around 12z Friday and would expect the intensity of lake enhancement to increase through around 18z when the vigorous vort max swings through. Given lake temps of 62 degrees, BUFKIT NAM soundings indicate 15 to 25 degree delta T values with tall lake induced inversions during the afternoon. However, there are indications that dry air begins to work into the low levels during the evening hours after the low level trough moves through and trajectories go more northerly. Low level moisture moves out of the area and there are indications that rain subsides by 12z Saturday, but could see lake effect clouds lingering Saturday morning, especially in the west. Then, northwest winds swinging through Friday evening gust between 30 and 40 mph, highest along the surface trough, which could bring downa stray 45 mph gust. Now, the cold air coming in Friday night has 850 mb temps down to -2C 12z Saturday morning before warming ensues. The pressure gradient slackens overnight into early Saturday morning and cloud cover also dissipates overnight bringing some questions about how scattered out clouds can be east of US-31. Given forecast lows securely in the 30s Friday night, we'll have to watch for frost chances then, but wind and cloud cover complicate chances. A dry day continues on Saturday and surface high pressure overhead continues to keep the area calm wind-wise. Which allows a second opportunity for frost Saturday night as the core of the cold air lifts northeastward. Forecast lows dip down into the 30s again, but an increased gradient attempts to enter from the north. This appears to be the only complication for another frost attempt Saturday night. Looking ahead, even over the next 2 to 3 days, anomalous high pressure building near Greenland causing blocking to build peaks during the 16th to 21st of October. This is about the time that the NAO/AO dips negative. Meanwhile, the aforementioned baroclinic zone has pushed eastward potentially stalling along the eastern seaboard and forming an upper low or continuing to push eastward. Either way, this allows a sprawling area of high pressure to remain across the area until at least around Thursday of next week and potentially even longer keeping dry air overhead. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Cigs have been varying between roughly 2 kft and 3kft at both sites. Upstream obs suggest this will continue on and off through the night. Main focus will shift to chances for showers, storms and a trend to MVFR and possibly IFR cigs as an area of low pressure approaches with a strong cold front arriving after 00Z. Models continue to vary on overall coverage and location of best chances for precip with some signals of more favorable setup for showers at KSBN and maybe a slightly better chance for thunder at KFWA. Have continued to stay somewhat reserved in flight impacts before the cold front, with a likihood of further changes as the picture hopefully clears. In the wake of the front, CAA will usher in plenty of stratus and lake effect cloud cover just outside this period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Fisher  786 FXUS63 KMPX 150656 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 156 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain today favoring southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. - Cooler temperatures continue through Saturday morning when a widespread frost/freeze is expected. - Temperatures turn back to above normal next week with few chances for additional rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today... Our two upper level waves continue to approach this morning and the combined synoptic support from these waves will be a part of the widespread rain chances today. At the surface, a low will travel across the Great Plains to the southern Great Lakes. This low track will have one the main deformation axes over us and provide for a large area of stratiform rainfall. With the low track this axis will generally setup from south central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin. Rain will be possible farther northwest of this axis, but the amounts will be lower. Overall this feels much more like the kind of systems we see during the winter, which as we are in October now is not surprising, as this is deformation driven precipitation and we expect some lighter wrap around precipitation afterwards as well. Looking toward the model guidance there is much better agreement with both the RRFS and HRRR having a similar footprint of the QPF. Looking towards the ensembles there remain some difference between the HREF and REFS with the REFS slightly farther east. HREF PMM has the southeast Twin Cities metro as the edge of highest QPF, but the REFS has this farther east into Wisconsin. Overall rainfall is likely along a Fairmont to Mankato to Twin Cities axis with chances dropping off to the northwest. Southeast of this axis is where the highest QPF with totals of 0.5-1" are expected based on these PMM from the CAM ensembles. Forecast soundings show a setup for stratiform rain with a well saturated sounding and little instability to support thunderstorms. This is supported with SPC outlooks that do not have us in general thunder. Tomorrow and Saturday... As the surface low departs some additional light rain could occur with some wrap around in the morning. In general, Friday will be driven by CAA associated with a high moving in to our west. The impact from this high will be cold air and gusty winds. The peak of the CAA should come to an end by the evening and that should help bring the gusts down. However this keeps the CAA strong during the daytime heating keeping highs down in the lower 50s. Then under the high pressure light winds and clear skies will allow for ample radiational cooling Friday night into Saturday morning. This creates a favorable setup for frost and freeze. Based on our current forecast and guidance a freeze looks like it could occur everywhere outside of the urban core of the Twin Cities. Even in the urban core a frost still looks likely. Clear skies look to continue into the day which should allow for warming, especially as the the flow aloft starts to shift towards WAA later in the day. Next Week... This period is driven by persistent ridging with an uncertain end point. The ridging will persist through mid week with some guidance suggesting we could see our next wave late next week, but spread remains. What this means for the weather is warm, much above normal temperatures, return along with few if any chances for rain. So after our coldest air of the season so far Friday into Saturday morning we look to go right back into the warmth. Normal highs next week fall into the mid 50s and our forecast currently has mid to upper 60s. So ten or more degree above normal which could drive our current, already high, departure even higher for the month. We will needto keep on eye on records for October, as another week of 10+ degree above normal temperatures could put us in reach of a record warm month. A lot can change in a short time in fall though, but it will take a big shift in the last week of the month to make a dent in how warm it has been. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR stratus will continue filling in over the entire forecast area within the next few hours ahead of our next system. Our next system will arrive from the southwest during this morning, with -RA/-SHRA expected from southwestern to central MN east into west-central WI. The rain will continue for several hours before exiting east for MN by evening and WI just before the end of the TAF period. At least MVFR conditions are expected with lowest cigs and visibilities (IFR/LIFR) likely from southern MN into west-central WI where moisture will be greatest. Cigs and cloud coverage will improve to at least MVFR for a few hours once the dry slot moves in on the backside of the rain. However, wrap-around moisture will begin to affect west-central MN by the end of the period, bringing another round of -SHRA and MVFR. Light/variable winds expected past sunrise until the surface low's circulation nears. Will see a general westerly to northwesterly wind shift as winds strengthen, maximizing Thursday evening. Strongest winds are expected in west-central MN where sustained values will range from 15-20 knots with gusts near 25 knots. KMSP...MVFR begins after 08z this morning as stratus spreads. -SHRA will begin around 15z with cigs falling to 700 feet. IFR expected from 17-00z when heaviest rain is most likely. A brief visit to VFR is most likely Thursday evening before wrap around moisture arrives from the north, bringing MVFR and another round of -SHRA. Northwesterly winds will increase this afternoon through tonight with gusts near 25 knots early Friday morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind NNW 15-20G30kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...CTG  806 FXUS64 KSHV 150656 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 156 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above average warmth will continue Thursday, with highs in the lower 90s and mostly dry weather prevailing. - A powerful cold front will cross the ArkLaTex Friday, bringing significantly cooler temperatures and much drier air. - Very low humidity and gusty winds will produce elevated fire weather conditions Friday and likely into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Southerly flow around a subtropical high will keep unseasonably warm temperatures in the lower 90s for the Ark-La-Tx Thursday afternoon. At the same time, the closed low over the Four Corners will merge back with the greater trough and propagate eastward toward the Great Lakes. A strong cold front associated with this trough is still expected to push through the region during the day on Friday, resulting in high temperatures as low as the upper 60s for some. Areas of Central LA could still see temperatures in the 80s before the front sweeps through in the afternoon. In addition to the sharp dip in temperatures, strong winds and dry air are expected to follow this front. Winds across the region could easily gust above 30 mph on Friday with RH's dipping into the 20-30 percent range. Even with the cooler temperatures, the dry air and gusty winds will compound on an already dire drought situation in terms of fire weather. Fuels are extremely dry with the lack of consistent wetting rainfall and are prone to catching fire from any sort of spark. The conditions on Friday will make these sparking fires spread much more quickly and be harder to contain. Most counties and parishes remain under burn bans due to the ongoing drought, but increased caution must be taken to prevent sparking wildfires and report any that begin quickly to proper authorities. As such, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the entire region from Friday morning through the evening hours. This watch merely outlines the extremely favorable weather conditions for fire spreading that will likely be in place on Friday and may be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning with a future forecast. The cooler air behind the front Friday is expected to linger through the day on Saturday before another upper-level ridge sets up another warming trend. Temperatures in the lower 70s on Sunday will quickly return to the low to mid 80s by midweek with little relief in sight. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For the 15/06Z TAF update, another round of MVFR/IFR vis/cigs are likely across the southern airspace as a frontal boundary approaches. Southerly winds will remain near 5-7 kts, while VCTS remains further north for this period. /16/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A powerful cold front will cross area fire districts on Friday, with unseasonably cooler temperatures to follow. This front is not expected to produce any significant rainfall. The post-frontal airmass will also be very dry, dropping relative humidity values into the upper 20 to 30 percent range. North-northwest winds behind the front will be very breezy, maintaining sustained speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Together with critically dry fuels, these conditions merit a Fire Weather Watch for all area fire districts beginning Friday morning. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 65 71 50 / 0 10 0 0 MLU 93 65 77 49 / 0 0 10 0 DEQ 91 53 67 43 / 0 10 10 0 TXK91 60 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 93 60 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 87 60 67 49 / 0 20 0 0 GGG 89 59 69 48 / 0 20 0 0 LFK 90 64 74 51 / 0 20 20 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for OKZ077. TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...16