613 FXUS65 KTFX 150805 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 205 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Today it will be slightly cooler than yesterday with temperatures warming up to well above seasonal averages on Friday and Saturday -It will be windy across North-central Montana on Saturday. -It will be dry through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Today an upper-level trough briefly moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Today temperatures across North- central Montana will cool down slightly compared to yesterday. It will be dry today. On Friday an upper-level ridge moves over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This brings warm temperatures and dry weather to the area on Friday. On Friday temperatures will be well above seasonal averages. On Saturday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and dry temperatures to the area on Saturday. On Saturday the low-level and mid-level winds increase combined with the upper-level ridge flattening. This will bring windy conditions to North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. On Sunday there will be zonal flow (west-east) over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures with mostly dry weather. On Monday an upper-level ridge briefly builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up slightly with mostly dry weather. Tuesday through Wednesday there will be persistent troughing around Montana which will bring cooler temperatures and some precipitation to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: On Saturday there is a 50 - 70% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the plains west of I-15. On Saturday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 50 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 70 mph or greater. Along the higher peaks of the Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 70% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater. Additionally the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) has a standardized anomaly of 3 for 700 mb wind Saturday afternoon across the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. Models continue to show in excess of 60 to 70 kt 700 mb winds over the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15 Saturday afternoon and evening. As a result a High Wind Watch has been issued for the plains west of I-15 and the Rocky Mountain Front from 9AM Saturday through 12AM Sunday. On Saturday across the rest of North-central Montana there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater. For winds across the Hi-Line east of I-15 there is currently a low chance to reach and/or exceed high wind criteria but if the strong 700 mb winds move east faster than models are currently depicting a High Wind Watch could be needed for the Hi- Line east of I-15. -IG && .AVIATION... 15/06Z TAF Period A wind shift/weak cold front will continue to sag southward across the plains early this morning. Mid-level cloudiness will increase through the remainder of the night in many areas, but diminish through the morning Thursday. Northwesterly surface winds behind the front look to be most gusty and persistent at KHVR. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 48 34 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 45 26 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 44 28 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 41 24 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 47 18 57 19 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 41 26 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 48 23 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 43 28 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  578 FXUS65 KVEF 150804 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 104 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty north-northwesterly winds expected this afternoon through Friday with gusts 40 to 50 mph across portions of the region. * Precipitation chances return to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...Through Thursday. Satellite imagery early this morning showed a broad upper level trough draped across the Rockies. Meanwhile to the northwest, a shortwave was digging south on the backside of this main trough. These two pieces of energy are expected to interact to bring gusty north to northeast winds to the region today through Friday. No significant changes to previous forecast thinking. Widespread gusts over 40 MPH are likely over Death Valley, southeast California, and western Arizona as a 60-70KT jet sets up across the region. Continuing to see indications of downslope wind enhancement in valleys next to terrain, including areas like Pahrump and around the Hualapai Mountains. Impacts to valley roadways, including Interstate 40 east of the Hualapai Mountains in southern Mohave County and Highway 160 in Pahrump, due to strong crosswinds are possible. No changes were made to the Wind Advisories as they capture the highest chances for wind impacts as well as the strongest wind timing. Winds will diminish through the day Friday as the trough pulls away, and while wind impacts should end by midday as gusts drop below 40 MPH- continued breezy northeast to east winds gusting 25-35 MPH are expected through the afternoon. This downward trend will continue Friday night and Saturday, with light winds returning to the forecast Sunday onward. After a brief warm up to near normal today and Friday, temperatures drop a few degrees back to slightly below normal levels for the weekend. After dry conditions through at least the weekend, will need to watch how a deep West Coast trough interacts with moisture that may advect into the region from Hurricane Simon. At the moment, moisture does not look to be as high as what we saw with the remnants of Rachel, but what impacts we will see is uncertain as the GFS and ECMWF have very different ideas on IVT plume locations and how they interact with the incoming trough. No major changes to the precipitation forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread 30%- 40% chances that then linger into Thursday, and snow level around 9000ft. Confidence in these details remain low though as this system is far into the forecast period, will continue to monitor as things develop. With the incoming system and the potential for rain, temperatures will cool and remain below normal early next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light and variable winds will shift to the north-northwest late tonight, with gusty northerly winds to 20-25KT returning by mid- morning. Winds then veer to the northeast by late morning, with gusts increasing increasing to 25-30KT, persisting through sunset. Gusts gradually diminish through the evening, with northerly winds around 10-12KT continuing thereafter through the end of the forecast period. VFR conditions and clear skies prevail. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Overnight, winds will remain northerly with some variability and speeds between 5-10KT. Thursday morning, gusty northerly to northeasterly winds resume areawide, with gusts to 25-30KT common thereafter, with the strongest winds gusting to 30-40KT expected along the Lower Colorado River Valley from KIFP to KEED. Northeasterly gusts will hold off across the western Mojave Desert/KDAG until early afternoon, with gusts there closer to 20KT. Gusty conditions persist thereafter, though gusts begin to diminish slowly after sunset. KBIH in the northern Owens Valley is the outlier, where light northerly winds will back to the southwest and to the southeast by late afternoon, when gusty up- alley winds to 20-25KT are expected to develop. VFR conditions and clear skies prevail. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nickerson AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  880 FXUS63 KLOT 150808 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 308 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A fall storm system will move through the area today and Friday bringing periods of rain showers and gusty northwesterly winds (the latter primarily on Friday). - Frosty and near-freezing conditions are favored away from Lake Michigan Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday night. - After the brief period of chilly weather, there will be a warming trend this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Though Tonight: Per recent GOES-19 water vapor imagery, an upper-level trough is lifting northeastward across the Rocky Mountains toward the central Plains ahead of a vigorous northern-stream trough digging southeastward into the Dakotas. Pressure falls on the order of 1 to 2 mb/hr have commenced in central Oklahoma (likely augmented by convection), which will spread northeastward with time as the lead upper-level trough lifts atop a southwest- to northeastward-oriented low-level baroclinic zone stretching into the Great Lakes. Generally speaking, the forecast for the next 24 to 48 hours remains on track with the expectation for the first fall storm of the season to move through the Great Lakes region. As this occurs, a myriad of weather conditions will occur in our local area. After daybreak, showers and areas of drizzle (already developing at press time) will gradually expand across northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana. As our area will be somewhat removed from the strongest forcing (warm conveyer belt focused just south of our area, and increasing frontogenetical forcing focused to our north), am not expecting hefty precipitation totals through the first half of the day. Coverage of showers and drizzle should maximize this afternoon as the surface low moves directly over our area, though again coverage may be more scattered than widespread owing to somewhat disjointed forcing. Nevertheless, seasonably high PWATs (nearing 2 inches) will support torrential downpours where showers are most persistent this afternoon. Am seeing quite a bit of variance in the exact track of the surface low in high-res guidance early this morning, so will hedge toward global guidance (which often does not suffer impacts of convective effects). Such a hedge favors the track of the low passing directly from LaSalle to Chicago this evening while deepening a mb or two per hour. With this in mind, will have to watch for a narrow window for moisture-driven surface- based instability to sneak along and east of I-55 this evening (5 to 9 PM) to support low-topped convection along or just ahead of the synoptic cold front. The overlap of strongly veering low-level wind profiles within the low-centroid and high moisture-driven convective layer does raise concern for low- topped supercell structures, though would have to think they would be harmless given limited opportunity for breaks in cloud cover to steepen low-level lapse rates (effectively limiting the opportunity for truly surface-based convection). In the off chance that the surface low moves even further north than expected AND there is partial sunshine in the narrow warm sector to steepen low-level lapse rates, cannot discount a threat for a brief tornado. At this point, we assess the chance of such an outcome to be very low (less than 5%), a sentiment that is shared by SPC (we did check in with them this morning). So, will continue to withhold mentioning a threat for severe weather today in the HWO and graphical products and allow for observations this afternoon guide adjustments in strategy, if needed. In the immediate wake of the cold front this evening, initial pressure rises on the order of 2 to 3 mb/hr will drive a period of westerly winds gusting 30 to 35 mph. Robust cold air advection will send temperatures falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s overnight with wind chills by daybreak Friday solidly in the low to mid 40s. The overnight period is favored to be dry for most areas, though can envision a few showers continuing near and southeast of I-57 near and just behind the cold front. Friday: On Friday, the northern-stream trough will whip through the Great Lakes anchored by a seasonably cool 500mb temperatures near -25C. A low-level trowel-like structure within the cyclonic shear axis of the trough will support a diurnal flare of showers with peak coverage during the afternoon hours across the area. Pressure rises will actually be greatest during the afternoon (+10mb/6hr) as a 1040mb surface high builds into the plains. As a result, the expectation is for a period of strong north to northwesterly winds Friday afternoon, peaking in the 35 to 40 mph range. Locally higher gusts of 45 to 55 mph cannot be ruled out in the tallest showers. Extensive stratus and continued cold air advection will limit highs to the lower 50s, though would not be surprised if temperatures remain in the upper 40s as hinted by more aggressive deterministic guidance. As the upper-level trough whips overhead, tumbling temperatures atop the warm waters of Lake Michigan will set the stage for the blossoming of lake effect rain showers. With inversion heights progged to climb to nearly 20kft and above the minus 20C level, cannot rule out a few lightning strikes and graupel (soft hail) in the deepest lake effect convective cores. The northerly wind direction will point the stream of lake effect showers into northwestern Indiana during the afternoon, though any mesolows may tend to push showers into Cook County, as well. Wind gusts along the immediate shoreline may also routinely poke above 45 mph (stronger near any mesolows). Will brief the day shift to consider hoisting a Wind Advisory for Lake and Porter counties in northwestern Indiana centered on the Friday afternoon period (typically like to wait until within 24 hours of an event to pull the trigger on a headline). Taken altogether, Friday is shaping up to be a rather raw and chilly day out there. The tree canopy will likely lose a lot of colorful leaves. Friday night into Saturday: The pattern will remain fairly progressive as the surface low pulls away from our area and the surface high pressure system slides toward the middle Mississippi River Valley. Am not convinced winds will crash quickly Friday night owing to a continued pressure gradient in our local area ahead of the approaching surface high pressure system until literally daybreak. Even so, clearing skies (by way of tumbling inversion heights) and continued cold air advection will still push temperatures into the low to mid 30s overnight. The exception will be across northwestern Indiana where lake effect stratus will likely continue through the night. This period continues to be a focus for potential frost/freeze headlines primarily across portions of Illinois. While Saturday will feature full sunshine and weak winds (as the surface high slides directly overhead), the very chilly start to the day will serve as a low starting point for temperatures leading to afternoon highs generally in the 50s. Saturday night will be chilly once again, though the coldest temperatures will favor areas east of I-55 where winds will be weakest along the backside of the surface high. Can envision a need for frost headlines again where temperatures are coldest. Southwesterly return flow will become established by Sunday along the backside of the surface high pressure system marking the start of a warming trend into next week.Borchardt && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - VFR to high end MVFR ceilings tonight. - Storm system will arrive Thursday morning and bring periods of showers and IFR conditions, at times LIFR, through Thursday evening. - Improving ceilings Thursday night with increasing northwest winds gusting 20-25 kts. A busy TAF period weather wise is ahead as the developing storm system in the southern Plains will be moving into and through the Great Lakes Thursday morning through Thursday evening. Prior to the system's arrival, expect VFR to high end MVFR (2500-4000 ft) ceilings to persist off and on through tonight with easterly winds around 8-10 kts. While a few warm advection showers may develop as early as 09-10z tonight, it seems the bulk of the rain showers will hold off until mid to late morning Thursday as the core of the aforementioned storm system arrives. Once the rain showers arrive they will persist in an off and on capacity through Thursday evening resulting in MVFR visibilities and IFR ceilings. That said, with the surface low forecast to traverse directly overhead confidence continues to grow in a period of drizzle and LIFR conditions for a few hours late Thursday afternoon through early Thursday evening. Given that there is still some uncertainty as to the duration of the drizzle and LIFR conditions have opted to maintain PROB30s for this potential for now. Additionally, there is also a low end chance (10-15%) for an isolated rumble or two of thunder near and south of I-80 (mainly effecting GYY) between 21z-01z as a plume of instability oozes northward but confidence remains too low for any formal TAF mention. Rain is expected to gradually taper from west to east around and after midnight Thursday night. Ceilings will also improve as the rain ends with MVFR conditions expected to return around midnight and persist through the rest of the TAF period. As for winds, directions will become more southeasterly Thursday morning as the system arrives before becoming light and somewhat variable as the surface low passes overhead. Though, directions beneath the low should generally favor a south-southeast direction (170-180 degrees). In the wake of the system's cold front wind directions will turn west-southwest and then finally northwesterly around midnight Thursday night. Speeds will also be increasing in the wake of the cold front with gusts peaking around 20-25 kts Thursday night, though some locally higher gusts may be seen if deeper mixing is achieved. These gusty northwest winds will prevail through the day on Friday as well. Yack && .MARINE... Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Over the next 24 to 48 hours, the first fall storm system of the season will move through the Great Lakes. As the low lifts from near Kansas City to Chicago today, east-southeasterly winds will increase across southern Lake Michigan leading to waves generally of 3 to 5 feet along the Illinois shoreline. Westerly winds will increase in magnitude after sunset on the immediate backside of the system and behind a cold front with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 kt and a few gale force gusts to 35 kt. Friday afternoon, a secondary cold front will surge down Lake Michigan leading to a change in wind direction to northerly and rapid increase in wind speeds. Sustained winds of 30 to 35 kt with frequent gusts to 40 kt are expected, with locally higher gusts in excess of 45 kt possible on the west side of lake effect rain showers. The strongest wind gusts are expected Friday afternoon and evening before gradually tapering after midnight early Saturday morning. A Gale Warning is in effect from 1 PM to 1 AM Friday night into Saturday morning. Finally, strong lake induced instability may support waterspouts near lake effect showers Friday afternoon and evening. Borchardt && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  220 FXUS65 KFGZ 150827 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 127 AM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry, cool, and windy weather will continue through Friday. Tropical moisture may return this weekend and into next week, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Friday - strong high pressure aloft will develop over the Great Basin while a low forms off the northern Baja coast. The result will be rapidly increasing easterly flow aloft over our region. There will also be tighter easterly surface pressure gradients as a surface high plunges down through the Rockies and plains. Expect northeast to east winds to increase through this period, especially along/west of terrain features. The period of strongest winds currently looks like later tonight through Friday morning, including areas around Flagstaff, Sedona, and the I-17 corridor from Flagstaff down to the Hwy 179 interchange. Gusts in these areas may reach 40-50 mph, with most other areas staying in the 30-40 mph range. Otherwise, expect dry and continued cooler than normal conditions through Friday. Saturday and Sunday - Some moisture should move back into the region from the southeast by the weekend, and a low (10-25%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is included in our latest forecasts. Rain chances may increase as we get closer, depending on the track of the weak upper low as it ejects northeastward late in the weekend and possible interaction with deeper moisture associated with tropical systems far to the south off the coast of Mexico. While most of the ensemble guidance continues to keep the deeper moisture to our east through Sunday, a small percentage (including latest operational EC) bring it farther west, so this will be something to monitor. Daytime highs look to stay below normal through the weekend. Monday through Wednesday - ensemble forecasts show deeper low pressure diving south along the West Coast, settling over or just west of central/southern California by Tuesday or Wednesday. This will bring the potential for deeper moisture from the south to interact with the low over our region, and our rain chances have increased to 30-50% Tue/Wed. Daytime temperatures will remain cooler than average for mid October. && .AVIATION...Thursday 15/06Z through Friday 16/06Z...VFR conditions expected. Light and variable winds overnight, outside localized breezy NE winds downwind of terrain. After 15Z, look for N-NE winds 15-25 kts gusting near 35 kts. OUTLOOK...Friday 16/06Z through Sunday 18/06Z...VFR conditions forecast through the period. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible along and south of the Mogollon Rim after 18Z Saturday. Winds will be out of the E-NE through the period, initially between 15-25 kts on Friday, becoming lighter 10-20 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Cool and windy conditions throughout the period. Winds are northeast through east 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Thursday through Friday, remaining elevated overnight. Strongest winds will be along/downwind of higher terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino Counties and north of the White Mountains. Min RH is 30-60% on Thursday then 20-40% on Friday. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. Saturday through Monday...Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain for each day. Winds are 10-20 mph from the east on Saturday, light and variable on Sunday, then southwest 5-15 mph on Monday. Daytime temperatures remain 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  287 FXUS63 KDMX 150828 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 328 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers increase in coverage this morning and into the afternoon, then ending for most areas through the evening. Wrap-around showers possible Friday morning in the north and east. - Becoming windy and much cooler by Thursday night into Friday. Winds out of the north gusting to at least 35-40 mph at times, isolated to 45 mph in north/northwest Iowa. - Frost is likely early Saturday with morning lows in the low to mid 30s. - Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain shower activity early this morning has more recently begun a slow increase in coverage, with spotty showers occurring generally over northern and eastern Iowa. Isolated areas further south and west show very light returns on radar, with some very light rain to drizzle observed at the office at the time of this writing. This activity is within an area of warm air advection ahead of an upper level trough that remains over northern Utah/Colorado, with more widespread rain shower activity occurring over Kansas/Nebraska where deeper saturation through the atmosphere and better upper level support is noted. The expectation is that the more widespread activity will make it into Iowa just before or around sunrise, spreading northeastward through the afternoon before gradually tapering off through the evening. The aforementioned upper level trough lifting northeastward over the next several hours is still expected to merge with another trough over the Dakotas by late morning/early afternoon, resulting in a strengthening system that will support stronger dynamics to result in moderate rainfall activity. Very limited instability overhead will keep concerns for thunderstorms minimal, though isolated thunder is possible on occasion. Rain showers will gradually decrease in coverage from southwest to northeast through the evening, with event total rainfall amounts generally expected around 0.5-1 inch, though a few spots up to 1.5 inches cannot be completely ruled out. Highs today will range in the 50s to 60s, coolest north and west and warmest south/southeast. While dry conditions are expected to return for much of the state through the evening, strong cold air advection arriving on the backside of the deepening surface low pressure system over the Great Lakes will lead to a widespread drop in temperatures and a very noteworthy increase in north/northwest winds, especially into Friday morning. Sustained winds around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30-40 mph are likely, isolated even to 45 mph and possibly even higher over north/northwest Iowa. This is supported by the potential for mixing of higher gusts aloft, which can be more efficient in a cold air advection regime, but low stratus may hang around and limit better mixing from occurring. Given this, the latest forecast calls for winds to remain below but close to advisory criteria in north/northwest Iowa, but any increase in confidence could mean a further boost in winds and resulting headline, so stay tuned for updates. The potential for wrap around light rain showers remains per the greater majority of model guidance, mainly for portions of northern and eastern Iowa during the morning, with only minimal additional rainfall before ending. The strong push of cooler air and limited sunshine will allow for otherwise chilly conditions, as highs are only expected to reach the low 50s across Central Iowa. Winds will follow a decreasing trend through the afternoon and especially evening, as the system responsible pushes further east and high pressure makes it's way into the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Surface high pressure returns later Friday night into Saturday morning leading to light winds, clear skies and good radiational cooling. Temperatures by Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 30s with frost conditions likely so make plans now to protect any sensitive vegetation! With the surface high and an upper ridge in place, dry conditions are expected for the weekend. Temperatures begin to rebound again by later Saturday into Sunday as southwest flow returns. This translates to gradually increasing highs this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday, mid to upper 60s Sunday and then Monday, and in the low to mid 70s Tuesday-Wednsday. The GFS brings a small system near to through the region on Monday but the going forecast remains dry until mid to later next week when there is a bit more consensus for returning precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR ceilings are advancing northeastward over Iowa late this evening and will lower into IFR as showers begin toward or after sunrise Thursday. With chances remaining around 30% for LIFR ceilings during the steadiest rain, have introduced PROB30 group at each terminal. Rain will end from southwest to northeast late in the afternoon into the early evening as winds from the northwest increase and turn gusty. Ceilings should break at most terminals before the end of the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bury LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...Ansorge  583 FXUS64 KMAF 150832 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 332 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are expected through Friday across much of west Texas. A few storms may also become severe, posing a threat for mainly damaging winds and large hail this afternoon and evening. - A front tonight/Friday morning brings much cooler temperatures to the region through the weekend. - Tonight/Friday morning's front also brings breezy northeasterly winds to the area. High gap winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 An active weather pattern continues today and an upper level trough translates over the Rockies into the Central Plains. A few showers and storms are ongoing across portions of the eastern Permian Basin, the Lower Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend. Additional showers/storms are expected to develop through day today, as moisture accompanied by rounds of disturbances continue to move over our region within southwesterly flow aloft. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible over much of the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend throughout the day. The best chances for rainfall will be over our easternmost counties. The primary hazard with this next round of activity looks to be heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, especially in areas where soils are already saturated. Aside from rainfall, this storm system sends a cold front across the Plains. The front is progged to start entering our region this afternoon. The combination of rainy conditions, cloudy skies, and the cold front will result in highs in the 70s for most this afternoon, with 80s near and along the river valleys. Later this afternoon and into the evening, winds start to pick up behind the cold front as it surges southward. Breezy northeast winds are expected across much of the region. Strong gap winds are expected within the Guadalupe Mountains this evening and through most of the day Friday. As such, a High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupes from this evening through early Saturday afternoon, for gusts up to 70mph. Aside from elevated winds, cooler and drier conditions filter in behind the cold front. Rain chances taper off from north to south through the evening and overnight hours. A few showers and storms may still linger around the Big Bend region Friday morning before clearing out by the afternoon. Given the best moisture will hover near the Big Bend this evening and tonight, the threat of flash flooding will remain for this part of our region. Behind the cold front, temperatures early Friday morning will fall to the 40s and 50s. The coldest lows are expected within the Davis Mountains, where temperatures look to slip into the mid to upper 30s. Breezy conditions persist through late Friday afternoon, with highs topping out in the 50s to 60s (40s in the higher terrain). && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Heading into Friday night and Saturday morning, upper level ridging takes hold across the Southern Plains. Winds begin to decrease and skies begin to partially clear. Lows settle into the 30s and 40s areawide. A few of the coldest spots in the mountains may reach near freezing, briefly Saturday morning before warming back up into the 50s and 60s. Sunday morning will be about as chilly Saturday morning and that will begin a gradual warmup into the early part of next week. Highs move into the 70s with morning lows in the 50s for Monday and Tuesday. Low (10-20%) rain chances move into the area from the west during that time, but beyond Friday, much of the long term forecast is mainly dry. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Cold frontal passage expected between 8-12z for most sites with FST seeing passage later in the day. Scattered showers and storms develop with the front. Amendments will be needed based on radar trends. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 52 60 39 / 90 40 0 0 Carlsbad 81 54 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 81 52 59 43 / 90 100 50 0 Fort Stockton 78 49 58 39 / 60 90 20 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 47 54 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 76 48 59 36 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 74 41 51 34 / 30 80 40 0 Midland Intl Airport 76 52 59 40 / 60 30 0 0 Odessa 75 52 59 40 / 50 30 0 0 Wink 79 54 62 40 / 30 20 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning from 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Flood Watch through Friday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to noon MDT Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93  606 FXUS65 KCYS 150832 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 232 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow will continue above 7000 ft this morning. Snow levels may lower down to 5500 to 6000 feet briefly before precipitation ends later Thursday morning. - A growing-season-ending freeze expected Thursday night into Friday morning across the entire area. - Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 First winter-like Pacific storm ongoing across southeast Wyoming with mainly rain below 6000 feet for far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska early this morning. It is currently snowing in Laramie with a temperatures of 32 degrees, so snowlevels are likely between 6500 to 7000 feet given Cheyenne's current temperature at 100 AM of 38 degrees. The mountains and I-80 Summit are snowing moderately to occasionally heavy early this morning with accumulations on grassy surfaces, bridges, and overpasses. Current Winter Weather Advisory looks good and not planning to make any changes at this time. Band of moderate precip is colocated with the TROWAL feature/wrap around precip band which is currently over Albany county and extends northeast into east central Wyoming and the northern Nebraska Panhandle. This band is slowly translating eastward over the I-25 corridor, with the eastern extent of the band early stationary over the eastern plains. Forecast appears on track, at least the timing and expected snowfall/amounts. Still expect a transition to snow around elevations of 6000 feet and possibly as low 5500 feet before the precipitation ends later this morning. High res models and synoptic models have finally backed off on their massive QPF amounts, showing amounts that are a little more reasonable with this type of system. Models also show the storm system trending more progressive and exiting the area as early as 10:00 am to 1:00 pm today. This makes sense given the position of the northern branch of the jet stream and associated upper level trough/upstream kicker sliding south across the northern plains this morning. After trending QPF higher the last couple of days due to model persistence/consistency with higher precip amounts, lowered QPF back in line with a more faster moving storm system. Snowfall should be similar to the previous forecast with a slight lowering of snowfall totals. The only forecast concern is possible areal extensions of the Winter Weather Advisory for portions of I-25, southern Laramie Range foothills, etc; and maybe an upgrade to a Warning for the I-80 Summit and Snowy Range. However, confidence is limited at this time. Based on current trends, expect precip to end around noon (earlier west of I-25) with skies quickly clearing behind the upper level low as it becomes an open wave trough and exits to the east. Will likely see some sunshine by mid to late afternoon, so even with 700mb temperatures below freezing, expect high temperatures to recover somewhat into the mid 60s across western Nebraska, and remaining in the 40s for most of southeast Wyoming. Clear skies and good radiational cooling with set the stage for our first hard freeze. It's nearly a certainty at this point that most places will see low temperatures late Thursday night and Friday morning below 30 degrees, especially with the Canadian upper level trough diving south with another cold front diving south across the plains with a 1036mb surface high behind it. Upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Warning for areas west of the Interstate 25 corridor and Converse and Niobrara counties. Will keep the Watch going further south and east after collaboration with neighboring offices. Kept temperatures tonight around the NBM and Grand Ensemble 25th percentile. Will likely see some mid to upper teens for the more sheltered high valleys, especially if any snow accumulation remains over the valleys of central and south central Wyoming. All models show the eastern Pacific upper level ridge axis sliding eastward into the Intermountain West during the day. Expect drier weather and mostly sunny skies for the forecast area with temperatures about 10 degrees warmer compared to the last few days. High temperatures in the 50s expected during the afternoon with light southerly winds. Not as cold Friday night, but most of western Nebraska and south central Wyoming will see low temperatures below or near freezing once again. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 115 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The Intermountain west starts to take a temporary break from the active weather pattern starting Saturday morning. A slow moving ridge starts to set up and meander every so slightly towards the central plains. The region will gradually warm up due to this ridge but don't expect any summer like temperatures for the rest of the season. The global models have 700mb temperatures only warming up to between 6-10c through the next week after this freeze from a visit from a polar airmass. With the sun angle slowing dropping I'd wager that 80 degree days are probably done for this forecast area. Instead the greater gamble would be on wearing shorts or pants in the morning as temperatures start out in the 30's and 40's and climbing into the 60's and 70's by the afternoon. By the mid-week another low pressure system is progged to slide down the west coast as another low is just hanging around the east coast to put the Intermountain West on the forward edge of an Omega block centered over the central plains. The low off the west coast however will be a critical player to our regions forecast. The cyclonic rotation will be feeding moisture into our region to keep the afternoon RH values high enough to not present any current fire weather concerns while also stacking the cards on any needed precipitation reaching the ground as multiple shortwaves move past the Rockies for some precipitation chances late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A storm continues to roll through the region, this will bring numerous aviation impacts across all terminals in our CWA through the overnight hours. One of which are low CIGs, expect a continuation of MVFR to IFR CIGs, possibly down to LIFR at times, for all the sites. Another is precipitation moving through, for the southeast Wyoming terminals as colder air plunges in, this precipitation is or is transitioning to snow or a snow/rain mix. This snow may reduce VIS significantly, possibly down to IFR VIS. However, rain is not expected to transition to snow across the Nebraska Panhandle. Winds will become northerly as the storm begins to move off to the east, as it does, look for winds to ramp up with gusts 20 to as high as 35 knots. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for WYZ107-108-117>119. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ101-102-104>106-109>111-113-115-116. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for WYZ110-112- 114>116. NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...RZ  580 FXUS65 KRIW 150832 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 232 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly clear and cool today, with highs only in the 40s and 50s. Light rain will linger through midmorning for Natrona County, before clearing by noon. - Clear and cold tonight, with lows in the 20s for all areas. Freeze Warnings have been issued for those are that have not already had a morning freeze. - Dry and milder through the upcoming weekend with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The H5 trough continues to exit to the southeast, and is gradually taking the clouds and precip with it. As of current writing time, the only remaining light rain is confined to Natrona County, and continues to draw to the southeast as well. Most light rain should be complete by 6AM, but light sprinkles may continue on Casper Mountain for a couple more hours. Skies will clear through the rest of the day, and with good cold air advection still in place, highs will struggle to reach the 50s. This will be accompanied by a modest northerly breeze, making for a brisk autumn day. Areas across Johnson County will hold some more of the influence of the sfc low gradient, so winds will be higher through the day, gusting 30 to 40 mph through the afternoon. Watch for cross winds along the I-90 corridor. Winds will die off quickly after sunset as high pressure sweeps in. This sets the stage for the first freeze of the season for most of the state. Most areas will fall into the 20s for several hours tonight. The only inhibiting factor may be enough of a breeze in the Wind River Basin to mix things enough to limit the overall timing of the freeze, but this airmass is cold enough to overcome most of this. Freeze Warnings are in effect tonight across central Wyoming, where freezing temperatures have not yet been reached. The main pattern this weekend is a broad H5 ridge across the Rockies, bringing moderating temperatures and deflecting the storm track back into southern Canada. The main impact will be which way the winds are from. Winds Saturday will be from the southwest, bringing the warmer air back into the region. Sunday a weather system passes across southern Canada, switching winds back from the north. While no cold air will return with these winds, it will be enough to bring temperatures back to near normal around 60 degrees. The next weather impact across western Wyoming still looking to be sometime Tuesday, when the ridge is broken down by a trough along the Rockies, bringing more moisture back from the southwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1007 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Showers continue across portions of central and southern Wyoming late this evening. This activity will move southeast out of the area through the night with precipitation ending by sunrise Thursday. KCPR and KRKS will be most likely to see lingering MVFR to IFR conditions tonight, and most notably at KCPR where low clouds are expected to persist through Thursday morning. There is also some fog potential, especially at KJAC though confidence is low. A breezy north wind may help mix down warmer and drier air to help mitigate this. Other terminals east of the Divide may also see lower clouds Thursday morning. While KCPR may hold on to a broken VFR cloud deck, remaining terminals are expected to see mostly clear skies by early Thursday afternoon. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ005-006-010-011-016>020-028>030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Myers  812 FXUS63 KFGF 150839 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 339 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Advisory level winds are expected this afternoon into tonight across eastern North Dakota and the Red River valley. - Best chance for widespread freezing temperatures will be Friday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Change in the forecast for today was to change start and end time of the wind advisory. Based on HRRR forecasts of peak winds there are two corridors. One is more with a west-northwest wind shift southwest of the sfc low originating in the Saskatoon and Regina area moving southeast thru western into central ND into north central SD. This is more daytime today...with chances for winds reaching advisory after 18z in far western fcst area Cando to Devils Lake to Valley City. Though it is possible advisory level winds remain a bit west of this area. Another corridor of high wind potential will be felt directly to the west of the sfc low in associated with cold advection that drops south from Winnipeg to Fargo after dark tonight. BUFKIT soundings for Fargo and Grand Forks show best lapse rates to mix down winds from 870 mb to be felt 04z-08z Friday where winds of 40-45 kts should mix down. Wind direction during this time overnight is northerly and favorable for a period of highest winds in the valley. Push of cold air isnt intense so dont expect an over achieving wind event at this time, as we may get in the winter time in a similar situation. With the timing above...went advisory 18z to 09z for DVL region, kept it early yet in case winds increase fast enough. In the valley where initial winds will not be advisory, went 23z-11z or 6pm to 6 am. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Widespread stratus deck continues to linger across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon, keeping temperatures in the low to mid 40s thus far today. Upper flow is nearly zonal, but will be transitioning to southwest this evening and overnight before shifting to the northwest late Thursday evening. Very light precipitation is possible along a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly from the Red River Valley eastward into northwest Minnesota. Breezy northwest winds pick up early Thursday morning and persist through much of the day. The strongest pressure gradients shift eastward overnight into Friday morning with weak, transient, ridging bringing warmer temperatures into the area for Saturday and Sunday. ...Breezy Northwest Winds Thursday... Sustained northwest winds of 20-30 mph are possible Thursday with gusts upwards of 40-45 mph. This will be in response to a fast moving cold front and strong pressure rises on the western side of the frontal passage. There is still some uncertainty surrounding cloud cover, which could limit mixing during the afternoon and evening and slightly reduce the potential max wind gusts. At this time, the signal is consistently strong, however, with generally moderate to high confidence in the possibility of Advisory level winds. ...Freezing Temperatures Possible Friday Night... Guidance continues to bring colder air into the area following Thursday's cold front. Low temperatures Friday morning are expected to be in the lower 30s, but with lingering cloud cover. A better chance of upper 20s and low 30s will be Friday night into Saturday morning as cloud cover is expected to diminish by midday Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Satellite and surface observation trends show VFR conditions are slowly arriving over eastern ND. MVFR ceilings appear likely to linger into the early overnight over parts of northeast ND and northwest MN before finally clearing due to the shifting surface pattern and increasing southerly flow (8-10Z). After a period of VFR conditions midday Thursday a cold front moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN returning MVFR ceilings across eastern ND and northwest MN during the afternoon and evening (lower chance for prevailing IFR). Scattered light rain showers are moving across southeast ND into west central MN early in the TAF period, however most locations should remain dry (KFAR has best chance for light rain). A more organized period of light rain moves through northwest MN behind the cold front Thursday evening. Winds are currently light, but with the approach of low pressure they should shift to the south and southwest overnight increasing by the morning hours. Behind the cold front winds will turn to the west-northwest and increase. Gusts 30kt or higher are likely over parts of eastern ND Thursday afternoon, with the highest gusts along and west of the Red River Valley during the evening/overnight period Thursday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Friday for NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054. MN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001>004-007-029. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...DJR  042 FXUS62 KFFC 150844 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 444 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions will prevail through the next 7 days with temperatures warming to well above normal today and tomorrow. - A strong cold front will bring noticeably cooler conditions and gusty winds this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 One final day of summer expected again today and tomorrow before we get a significant change in air mass. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s by early afternoon, with NW winds keeping humidity down. Temps will fall into the low 60s tonight before a nearly identical high temp is expected tomorrow. With high pressure settled over the area, winds continue to be on the light side at less than 5 mph. Some patchy fog this morning is expected to burn off by 10am. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Things will finally feel much more Fall-like to open the long term forecast period Friday night into Saturday morning as a sharp cold front will rapidly progress across the CWA. Gusty NW winds (likely gusts near/over 30 mph at times) will transition toward the north and northeast on Saturday as surface high pressure slips across the Mid-Atlantic. This frontal passage continues to look very dry with any isolated sprinkles/brief showers largely relegated to north Georgia, though these will be very limited in nature. By Saturday morning, temperatures will have fallen into the 40s across a good bit of north Georgia, a drop of nearly 40 degrees in some areas from Friday highs. Expect below-normal temperatures to persist through the weekend with highs mainly in the 60s each day and lows in the 40s for most (some 30s in the mountains) through Monday. A warming trend will then be underway by next week as midlevel ridging builds eastward with temperatures near to slightly above normal by midweek. Still, no notable rain chances are in the foreseeable future as surface high pressure will continue to build southwestward from New England through the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR through the TAF forecast with light west winds gradually becoming southwest after 16Z at 5kts or less. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 89 63 85 52 / 0 0 0 10 Atlanta 88 65 84 52 / 0 0 0 10 Blairsville 85 60 79 43 / 0 0 20 10 Cartersville 89 62 84 48 / 0 0 10 10 Columbus 90 63 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 88 64 83 51 / 0 0 0 10 Macon 90 63 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 89 61 84 47 / 0 0 10 10 Peachtree City 89 62 85 49 / 0 0 0 10 Vidalia 88 65 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...Vaughn  064 FXUS63 KGLD 150844 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 244 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers ending this morning to early afternoon. - Windy this afternoon with gusts up to 55 mph in northeast Colorado and 30-50 mph elsewhere. Some patchy blowing dust possible in Colorado. - Frost and light freeze possible tonight, then a light freeze likely Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1215 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Scattered showers will continue to move east overnight and this morning ahead of the upper trough axis. Secondary band to the northwest associated with the sheared out remnants of the upper low may survive as far south as Yuma County before weakening this afternoon with a few light showers. Otherwise, main concern today will be the potential for windy conditions, primarily in northeast Colorado. Mid to late afternoon clearing may be enough to mix down stronger winds to the surface on the backside of the upper trough. NBM probabilities continue at 50-60% in a fairly small area of western Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties for gusts of greater than 55 mph after 18z through about 22z. Some patchy blowing dust may also develop with favorable mixing heights, but with the recent rainfall confidence is on the low side given the moist top soils. Gusts outside of northeast Colorado should max out in the 30-50 mph range. Winds take some time to diminish tonight with gusts of 20-40 mph well into Friday morning before a noticeable decline. This may inhibit temperatures from falling despite clearing skies. NBM probabilities for 32 or colder are running around 40-50% near the Kansas and Colorado border to up to 70-90% along Highway 59 and northern Yuma County, where there is also around a 40% chance for a hard freeze of 28 or lower. Elsewhere, a frost is more likely. Upper ridge will build in from the west on Friday and Saturday resulting in dry conditions. Friday will see light winds by the afternoon with temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds shift around to the southwest and increase late Friday night, gusting 20-30 mph by Saturday morning in Colorado and west of Highway 25. This may once again inhibit temperatures from falling despite the clear skies. Nonetheless, probabilities are running quite high for a light freeze in the entire area, near 100%, with a wide range of probabilities for a hard freeze, favoring low spots in Colorado and along the Republican River. The south to southwest winds continue to increase through the day on Saturday, with gusts of 30-40 mph common by the afternoon, highest in Colorado. Afternoon relative humidity is forecast to drop to 15% or lower from Yuma County southwest into western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties, which combined with the gusty winds will result in near critical to critical fire weather conditions. This may extend into the adjacent counties of Kansas and Nebraska for a few hours as well. High temperatures in those areas will reach the 70s with downslope warming, with 60s expected elsewhere with a more southerly wind component. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Southwest flow aloft via longwave ridge is anticipated on Sunday to kick off this forecast period. Said ridge, centered over the western Great Lakes region, should propagate fairly quickly to the east over the course of the day Monday. Upper-level winds become zonal through Monday. Guidance currently projects a second ridge to develop on Tuesday across the the Plains region, settling the flow pattern backto southwesterly through the middle of next week. This, all ahead of an upper-level low that is expected to move across the SW CONUS through Wednesday. Guidance does outline a brief shortwave early Monday which should move out of the County Warning Area (CWA) by the time the evening comes around. Not much is expected to come from this trough passage other that a wind shift. A weak surface low is likely to form over eastern Colorado Sunday, moving into western Kansas Monday. This feature also should not do much other than pressure changes and wind shifts. Ensemble guidance is beginning to pick up a stronger surface low that may set up near the Tri-State area late Wednesday. Forecast guidance anticipates conditions to be quite dry across the CWA through early Wednesday. 5% or less PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) are favored throughout the region. This may not last though as an upper-level low, mentioned in the above section, paired with low-pressure at the surface could bring the next decent rainfall chances to our region late Wednesday. Guidance is currently not very confident on widespread precipitation, but a general 15-25% PoPs is forecasted at this point in time. Surface analysis/QPF doesn't show much accumulation for our area right now; nonetheless, still worth monitoring as this event draws closer. Moving on to high/low temperatures for the coverage area, a slight warmup is expected across the board as we rebound from well-below average highs. Temps in the low/mid 70s are likely Sunday and Monday, with a slight uptick to mid/upper 70s Tuesday then upper 70s/low 80s possible next Wednesday. With respect to overnight lows, Sunday morning is likely to be the coldest, with temps expected to approach the mid 30s. Lows will then gradually warm up above the mid 30s, with upper 30s/low 40s expected Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue this warming trend with low/mid 40s and then upper 40s/low 50s expected, respectively. As for fire weather concerns, the potential for critical fire conditions will be low, but not zero. Relative humidity (RH) values are likely to reach the mid-teens (14-15%) in our eastern Colorado counties on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface winds over these areas should sit around 15-20 mph from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Going forward, RH values are anticipated as low as the upper teens west of US-385 Monday and Tuesday, but winds should be light and variable; thus, the fire weather outlook likely will be milder post-Sunday. For the rest of the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is to be expected with generally 5-15 mph winds. Winds will initially be from the south Monday, shifting to the north and east with the shortwave, then settling back to more of a southerly direction. Gusts are not likely to exceed 25 mph during this forecast period everywhere east of the Colorado/Kansas state line. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1149 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 LIFR ceilings are in place at both KGLD and KMCK as a north-to-south oriented band of showers makes its way eastward across the area. All showers are now east of KGLD, though KMCK can expect to see on-and- off rain as this band goes through. Observations have shown ceilings slightly rising and visibilities hovering around 3-5 statute miles as showers come through, so this is forecast to continue over the next few hours for KMCK. Ceilings will begin to lift between 10 and 11Z, though are still expected to remain IFR through about 13 or 14Z. There is a low chance of further showers during the early afternoon, though guidance seems to suggest that these showers have a chance of dissipating before reaching KGLD and KMCK. There are indications of wind shear with a low level jet starting later this afternoon as well, though model soundings suggest that any wind shear will be weak and brief. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. CO...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NEZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Davis  295 FXUS65 KPSR 150847 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 147 AM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather is expected over the next couple of days with temperatures warming to near to slightly below normal starting Today. - Locally windy conditions will impact the western deserts starting Today before spreading across the rest of southern and central Arizona Friday into Saturday. - Wind advisories have been posted for portions of southern Arizona into the Lower Colorado River Valley on Friday with wind gusts in excess of 40 miles per hour expected. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The low pressure system that brought multiple rounds of showers and below normal temperatures earlier this week is now currently centered over Colorado, and continues to move northeastwards. Meanwhile, to the west, high pressure is beginning to build, bringing clear skies and H5 heights forecasted to reach between 582-585 dam today. This will swing afternoon high temperatures up to 10 degrees higher than yesterday, expect highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lower deserts, with a low chance (10-20%) of Phoenix reaching 90 degrees. These temperatures, while higher than earlier this week, are still right around normal for mid October. Low temperatures on the other hand will lag behind with today's low expected to remain below normal in the mid to upper 50s. By Friday morning the lows will respond to the building high pressure, with forecasted lows in the upper 60 to low 70s, or near 5 degrees above normal. The main weather concern will be increasing winds starting today and lasting into the weekend as a pressure gradient strengthens as the high pressure builds to the to the region's north. In addition to the building high, a cut off low will begin to form late tonight to the region's SW over the Norther Baja peninsula. The strongest breezes during the day will be between 25-35 mph and focused across northern AZ and across portions of southeast CA, including the lower Colorado River Valley. By late tonight winds across theses areas will begin to increase to between 35-45 mph, in response a Wind Advisory will begin and last through late Friday morning. By early Friday morning the gradient winds will become stronger and the orientation will shift more E-W, therefore expanding the Wind Advisory to include, southeast Arizona into southern Gila County and through Pinal, southern Maricopa, and Yuma Counties. These areas will also be the best corridor for strong winds, where gusts near 40 mph winds can be expected with the peak winds late Friday morning potentially reaching near 50-55 mph. During peak gusts these same areas will be prone to blowing dust, especially in Pinal County.Additionally, while not included in the Wind Advisories, areas just north of the advised areas can still expect winds between 25-35 mph Friday and into Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Winds will continue to be the main weather concern throughout Saturday morning with gusts between 30-35 in southern and central Arizona, but should remain below advisory level winds. However, another round of advisory level winds are expect in Yuma County and southern La Paz County Saturday morning, but currently allowing the earlier advisory to expire before reissuing to avoid confusion. Aside from the wind concern, guidance is suggesting some lower end shower potential over the weekend. The placement of the cut- off low to our southwest starting Friday is expected to advect a decent mid and upper level moisture into the area. Some high-based light showers may become possible across southern Arizona as early as Friday evening with best chances Saturday afternoon as the cut-off low weakens and migratesover the region. Unfortunately, little if any measurable rainfall is expected, as most locations will struggle to get anything more than a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. The good news though will be around a 5F-6F decrease in afternoon highs on Saturday, so expect highs in the low 80s across the lower deserts. By early next week, weak upper level riding will effect the region, resuming near normal temperatures. Looking out even further, ensemble guidance is hinting at another deep Pacific trough moving into the Western U.S. early next week and potentially reaching our region during the middle part of next week. This next weather system could bring more rain chances and another cool down during the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns are expected through Thursday evening under mostly clear skies. After a prolonged period of VRB conditions overnight, easterly winds will quickly become established by late morning, with breezy conditions developing soon thereafter with gusts around 20 kt, and remain in place through the remainder of the forecast window. Speeds will relax slightly by evening, but another round of breeziness may develop by the end of the TAFs, though confidence regarding that is low at this time. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies. Winds overnight will be generally light out of the west and northwest at KIPL and KBLH respectively. By the late morning hours, flow at both terminals will switch out of the N/NNE and become breezy with gusts around 20 kt, though some sporadic higher gusts closer to 25 kt would not be surprising. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will persist over the region over the next couple of days with mostly clear skies and lowering humidities. MinRHs will be between 15-25% across the western districts and 20-35% for the eastern districts. Northerly breezy winds will affect southeast CA and southwest AZ today before increasing to around advisory level late tonight and into Friday. The eastern districts will keep overall light winds for most of today before windy conditions settle in early Friday morning. Easterly wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph are expected Friday. Some moisture return Friday into Saturday may bring low- end rain chances, but wetting rains chances should remain below 10%. MinRH's are expected to then increase to between 25-35% areawide by Sunday. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ... Wind Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 11 AM MST Saturday for AZZ552- 553-555-558-560>562. Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Friday for AZZ530. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 3 PM MST Friday for AZZ531-532-536- 538-539-554-559. CA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Friday for CAZ564-565-569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Ryan/Kuhlman AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Benedict  679 FXUS65 KPSR 150856 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 156 AM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather is expected over the next couple of days with temperatures warming to near to slightly below normal starting Today. - Locally windy conditions will impact the western deserts starting Today before spreading across the rest of southern and central Arizona Friday into Saturday. - Wind advisories have been posted for portions of southern Arizona into the Lower Colorado River Valley on Friday with wind gusts in excess of 40 miles per hour expected. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The low pressure system that brought multiple rounds of showers and below normal temperatures earlier this week is now currently centered over Colorado, and continues to move northeastwards. Meanwhile, to the west, high pressure is beginning to build, bringing clear skies and H5 heights forecasted to reach between 582-585 dam today. This will swing afternoon high temperatures up to 10 degrees higher than yesterday, expect highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lower deserts, with a low chance (10-20%) of Phoenix reaching 90 degrees. These temperatures, while higher than earlier this week, are still right around normal for mid October. Low temperatures on the other hand will lag behind with today's low expected to remain below normal in the mid to upper 50s. By Friday morning the lows will respond to the building high pressure, with forecasted lows in the upper 60 to low 70s, or near 5 degrees above normal. The main weather concern will be increasing winds starting today and lasting into the weekend as a pressure gradient strengthens as the high pressure builds to the to the region's north. In addition to the building high, a cut off low will begin to form late tonight to the region's SW over the Norther Baja peninsula. The strongest breezes during the day will be between 25-35 mph and focused across northern AZ and across portions of southeast CA, including the lower Colorado River Valley. By late tonight winds across theses areas will begin to increase to between 35-45 mph, in response a Wind Advisory will begin and last through late Friday morning. By early Friday morning the gradient winds will become stronger and the orientation will shift more E-W, therefore expanding the Wind Advisory to include, southeast Arizona into southern Gila County and through Pinal, southern Maricopa, and Yuma Counties. These areas will also be the best corridor for strong winds, where gusts near 40 mph winds can be expected with the peak winds late Friday morning potentially reaching near 50-55 mph. During peak gusts these same areas will be prone to blowing dust, especially in Pinal County.Additionally, while not included in the Wind Advisories, areas just north of the advised areas can still expect winds between 25-35 mph Friday and into Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Winds will continue to be the main weather concern throughout Saturday morning with gusts between 30-35 in southern and central Arizona, but should remain below advisory level winds. However, another round of advisory level winds are expect in Yuma County and southern La Paz County Saturday morning, but currently allowing the earlier advisory to expire before reissuing to avoid confusion. Aside from the wind concern, guidance is suggesting some lower end shower potential over the weekend. The placement of the cut- off low to our southwest starting Friday is expected to advect a decent mid and upper level moisture into the area. Some high-based light showers may become possible across southern Arizona as early as Friday evening with best chances Saturday afternoon as the cut-off low weakens and migrates over the region. Unfortunately, little if any measurable rainfall is expected, as most locations will struggle to get anything more than a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. The good news though will be around a 5F-6F decrease in afternoon highs on Saturday, so expect highs in the low 80s across the lower deserts. By early next week, weak upper level riding will effect the region, resuming near normal temperatures. Looking out even further, ensemble guidance is hinting at another deep Pacific trough moving into the Western U.S. early next week and potentially reaching our region during the middle part of next week. This next weather system could bring more rain chances and another cool down during the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns are expected through Thursday evening under mostly clear skies. After a prolonged period of VRB conditions overnight, easterly winds will quickly become established by late morning, with breezy conditions developing soon thereafter with gusts around 20 kt, and remain in place through the remainder of the forecast window. Speeds will relax slightly by evening, but another round of breeziness may develop by the end of the TAFs, though confidence regarding that is low at this time. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies. Winds overnight will be generally light out of the west and northwest at KIPL and KBLH respectively. By the late morning hours, flow at both terminals will switch out of the N/NNE and become breezy with gusts around 20 kt, though some sporadic higher gusts closer to 25 kt would not be surprising. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will persist over the region over the next couple of days with mostly clear skies and lowering humidities. MinRHs will be between 15-25% across the western districts and 20-35% for the eastern districts. Northerly breezy winds will affect southeast CA and southwest AZ today before increasing to around advisory level late tonight and into Friday. The eastern districts will keep overall light winds for most of today before windy conditions settle in early Friday morning. Easterly wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph are expected Friday. Some moisture return Friday into Saturday may bring low- end rain chances, but wetting rains chances should remain below 10%. MinRH's are expected to then increase to between 25-35% areawide by Sunday. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ... Wind Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 11 AM MST Saturday for AZZ552- 553-555-558-560>562. Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Friday for AZZ530. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 3 PM MST Friday for AZZ531-532-536- 538-539-554-559. CA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Friday for CAZ564-565-569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Ryan/Kuhlman AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Benedict