059 FXUS63 KGID 150901 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 401 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread light rainfall will taper off from west to east through the morning hours, gradually ending by the early to mid-afternoon hours. In general, another tenth to half an inch of rainfall will be possible before the precipitation ends. - The coolest air of the fall, thus far, along with the first widespread frost of the season remains on tap for the Friday night into Saturday morning time-frame, with some scattered below freezing temperatures increasingly likely in our typically coolest spots. - Dry conditions and moderating temperatures from 60s into the 70s return for the weekend and into next week, providing several days of gorgeous fall weather. - Our next (and still very "iffy") chance for rain does not arrive until next Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Widespread light rainfall continues across much of the local area this morning, especially for areas east of Highway 283. So far precipitation totals have been on the lighter side, ranging anywhere from a couple of tenths of an inch of rainfall, to just over an inch in a few select locations - mostly across portions of north central Kansas. While thus far there have not been any lightning strikes this morning, cannot completely rule out a few strikes based on latest SPC meso-analysis indicating a couple hundred joules of cape, so maintained an isolated thunderstorm mention through the mid-morning hours (albeit any thunderstorms/lightning will be the exception). Otherwise, the forecast continues to look on track as the widespread light rainfall associated with the upper level low this morning is anticipated to shift east through the daytime hours. Any precip then rotating around the backside of this low and ahead of the approaching cold front should mostly dissipate by afternoon, with clouds lingering but precip generally ending from west to east before evening. Later tonight, expect the cold front from the north to race south across the local area, with gusty north winds helping to keep the atmosphere well mixed overnight and preventing low temperatures from tanking across central Nebraska overnight. That said, surface high pressure will fill in the from the west on Friday with lighter winds and clear skies, which should allow overnight temperatures Friday into Saturday morning to plummet to near or below freezing. As well advertised the past few days, this will be the coolest airmass so far this fall, and frost advisories and possibly some freeze warnings will need to be considered on the day shift later today. Otherwise, after a cool start to the weekend, more mild weather returns for next week with the next chance for some light precip returning Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Clouds, scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms have been on the increase from S to N today. Most areas won't see sunshine again until Friday AM. The initial wave of rain today is scattered, but there are some embedded heavier cores with a few rumbles of thunder. Latest guidance lifts this activity S to N through the remainder of the day, with perhaps some weakening with northern extent/time. A much larger, and more persistent, shield of light to moderate rain (and again, a few embedded weak thunderstorms) will spread SW to NE across the entire region late tonight, and continue through most, if not all, of the morning hours Thursday. Not much change to expected rainfall amounts as both the latest HREF and EPS are in good agreement. Most areas will receive around 0.25" to 0.75". Very isolated higher amounts up to 1.5" will be possible, but this will be more of the exception than the rule. Coverage and intensity will taper off from SW/S to NE/N Thursday afternoon. Most areas should be done with rain by around sunset Thursday, though a few sprinkles/very light showers could linger along the Hwy 81 corridor a couple hours longer. North winds will be a bit breezy on Thursday as the entire system lifts through the Plains and into the Upper Midwest - so even when it's not raining, its going to feel quite chilly and raw. High temperatures will only be in the 50s, but it could feel like mid to upper 40s at times with the breeze. Despite clearing skies Thursday night, not expecting frost due to breezy conditions persisting all night. Strongest high pressure of the fall season thus far will ooze into the region on Friday. This will gradually lower wind speeds on Friday, but temperatures will remain seasonably cool only in the 50s. The cool daytime, in conjunction with clear skies, weak winds along sfc ridge axis, and recent moisture will likely set the stage for widespread (perhaps significant/thick) frost Friday night into Saturday morning. Return flow will be on the increase towards dawn over the far W/NW, but damage may already be done in these areas by then. Forecast has been cooling slightly with each and every cycle, and now all but far SE zones are forecast to dip to, or just below, freezing Sat AM. As such, will likely by issuing frost/freeze headlines within the next 12-18 hours for this threat. Temperatures will warm nicely Saturday afternoon in the dry autumn airmass...and expect further moderation to temperatures Sunday into early next week. In fact, upper 60s to upper 70s are forecast each day Sunday through Wednesday next week, with our KS zones possibly even touching the low 80s late in the period. May have another period of patchy frost to contend with Saturday night, but a steady southerly breeze should prevent another round of widespread/thick frost...and lows only warm further from there next several days. So those looking to extend the growing season should be able to get at least another week, provided protective measures are taken Fri night-Sat AM. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Generally poor conditions will continue through the overnight hours with IFR/LIFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS as continued -SHRAs and some light BR are observed at both terminals. Winds should remain fairly steady and less than 10 KTS from the NE over the next few hours, before increasing and becoming gusty behind a cold front Friday afternoon. Winds will likely gust to near 30KT by 15/18Z...with MVFR CIGS prevailing through around 15/23Z...when model show a sharp cut off in cloud cover behind the approaching front. While VFR conditions will likely return tomorrow evening, winds will remain elevated through the overnight hours, with sustained winds continuing over 20KTs with occasional gusts to 30KTs+. Considered some marginal LLWS overnight (aft 16/04Z), but with surface winds remaining elevated, opted to not include as LLWS for the time being. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Rossi DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Rossi  917 FXUS63 KAPX 150912 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 512 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances begin to flourish this evening and tonight. - Windy and cooler Friday. - Winds remain elevated this weekend, milder as well on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current water vapor satellite imagery shows two prominent, and necessary, features of note to our west. First is an upper low in the vicinity of the front range, another is a trough digging across Canada and the adjacent Dakotas. Relatively weak sfc reflections associated with both of these features, although the low pressure system associated with the upper low near the front range will inject an anomalous amount of moisture northward into northern Michigan later today and tonight as it tracks northeast across southwest Michigan. Warm, moist advection in conjunction with synoptic forcing will overspread the region beginning this afternoon, and remaining into portions of the overnight hours. Steady moderate rain is expected as a result, spreading from southwest to northeast on the north and northwest of the surface low track. Bit of a lull overnight due to the sfc low track for some. As the surface low pulls off to the northeast through the day on Friday, winds shift to the NNW with showers continuing. Cold advection and crashing H850 temps will result in lake convection as well, and thus through the day the typical NNW lake effect zones will become favored with continued showers. When all is said and done, the latest guidance shows a healthy swath of ~0.60-1.0"+ of rain, with local highs and lows, possible by Friday evening. Pressure gradient tightens as the sfc low moves off to the east with increasing low level winds. Wind gusts look to be in the 25 to 40 mph range, highest near Lake Michigan and during the late afternoon and evening. Moisture, synoptic ascent, and the pressure gradient relinquish through the night on Friday, and thus, precipitation chances, and winds, wane through the night. Significant troughing moving west to east across Canada this weekend will result in deepening low pressure system across Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and up into the vicinity of Hudson Bay. At the same time, sfc high pressure will reside and slowly shift across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. In-between these two surface features (N MI) will be a strengthening pressure gradient and thus breezy to windy conditions. Windiest day will be Sunday. It will still be cool on Saturday but by Sunday, those southwest winds will usher in a milder mass, with 60s expected. Heights aloft remain above normal through the early to middle portions of next week. Consequently, high temperatures remain well above normal for this time of year, with 60s common. The pattern will also be conducive to dry conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Generally MVFR due to BKN-OVC cigs AOB 3.5kft. Times of VFR possible due to clouds briefly scattering or lifting to just above 3 kft through 12z. N/NE winds AOB 10kts will veer NE/E after 12z and remain light. MVFR cigs will linger through the day as RA moves over the area from the southwest after 20z. IFR vis and cigs will be possible near the end of the period as RA continues. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LHZ345>349. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLD AVIATION...ELD  986 FXUS63 KAPX 150913 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 512 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances begin to flourish late afternoon and evening. - Windy and cooler Friday with continued showers. - Winds remain elevated this weekend, milder as well on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current water vapor satellite imagery shows two prominent, and necessary, features of note to our west. First is an upper low in the vicinity of the front range, another is a trough digging across Canada and the adjacent Dakotas. Relatively weak sfc reflections associated with both of these features, although the low pressure system associated with the upper low near the front range will inject an anomalous amount of moisture northward into northern Michigan later today and tonight as it tracks northeast across southwest Michigan. Warm, moist advection in conjunction with synoptic forcing will overspread the region beginning this afternoon, and remaining into portions of the overnight hours. Steady moderate rain is expected as a result, spreading from southwest to northeast on the north and northwest of the surface low track. Bit of a lull overnight due to the sfc low track for some. As the surface low pulls off to the northeast through the day on Friday, winds shift to the NNW with showers continuing. Cold advection and crashing H850 temps will result in lake convection as well, and thus through the day the typical NNW lake effect zones will become favored with continued showers. When all is said and done, the latest guidance shows a healthy swath of ~0.60-1.0"+ of rain, with local highs and lows, possible by Friday evening. Pressure gradient tightens as the sfc low moves off to the east with increasing low level winds. Wind gusts look to be in the 25 to 40 mph range, highest near Lake Michigan and during the late afternoon and evening. Moisture, synoptic ascent, and the pressure gradient relinquish through the night on Friday, and thus, precipitation chances, and winds, wane through the night. Significant troughing moving west to east across Canada this weekend will result in deepening low pressure system across Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and up into the vicinity of Hudson Bay. At the same time, sfc high pressure will reside and slowly shift across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. In-between these two surface features (N MI) will be a strengthening pressure gradient and thus breezy to windy conditions. Windiest day will be Sunday. It will still be cool on Saturday but by Sunday, those southwest winds will usher in a milder mass, with 60s expected. Heights aloft remain above normal through the early to middle portions of next week. Consequently, high temperatures remain well above normal for this time of year, with 60s common. The pattern will also be conducive to dry conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Generally MVFR due to BKN-OVC cigs AOB 3.5kft. Times of VFR possible due to clouds briefly scattering or lifting to just above 3 kft through 12z. N/NE winds AOB 10kts will veer NE/E after 12z and remain light. MVFR cigs will linger through the day as RA moves over the area from the southwest after 20z. IFR vis and cigs will be possible near the end of the period as RA continues. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LHZ345>349. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLD AVIATION...ELD  005 FXUS66 KEKA 150913 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 213 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Very dry conditions with gusty northeast winds focused in Lake County will increase fire danger Thursday and Friday. * A warming trend peaking Thursday and Friday with interior highs in the 90s. * Cold front most likely to cross the area Sunday into Monday. 50% chance of wetting rain along the North Coast. && .SYNOPSIS...A general warming trend will peak today and Friday, even for the coast where marine influence remains weak. Cooler and more moist conditions build by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Weak high pressure continues to build across the area. Interior high temperatures will peak Thursday and Friday with highs in the 90s, which is much warmer than normal for mid October. Meanwhile, a positively titled trough passing across central California will promote moderate to strong northeast winds, especially for the southern half of the area. Gusts will generally remain less than 25 mph, but they will pull in very dry air keeping even the coast mostly free of marine influence. Winds will weaken again Friday, likely (50% chance) allow a weak marine layer to finally form near shore. High pressure will break down this weekend. Winds turning back onshore will help push in a deeper and stronger marine layer with interior highs pulling back into the 70s. A cold front will cross the area around Monday, but potential moisture with the front remains uncertain. Wetting rain potential along the North Coast has decreased back to about 30% with most likely rainfall of 0.1 to 0.15 inches. Winds with the front appear only moderate at best even in high end models. Regardless of rainfall, there is high confidence in generally seasonable cool and moist conditions through next week with another front likely around next Wednesday. /JHW && .AVIATION...06z TAF...Winds have veered southeast since their change from the steady northerly set up from Wednesday evening regime at KCEC. Expect a more easterly bearing overnight below 5kts at KCEC with a slight probability of ground fog as a brief visibility obfuscation into early Thursday morning. KACV has a light wind out of the east overnight which will turn westerly Thursday afternoon around 5-6kts. Light winds at KUKI tomorrow with winds picking up in the early evening at a variable bearing and under 6kts, VFR otherwise. /EYS & .MARINE...Northerlies continue to reduce in area, exposing lighter winds over the inner and most of the outer waters. Seas reducing from 8ft to around 5-6ft by Thursday afternoon with 4-5ft seas in the inner waters. An upper mid period swell continues from the northwest at 4ft-13sec and a westerly swell at 2ft-16sec, through Thursday afternoon and diminishing a few days after. The sea state will be mixed with a return of near gale northerlies late in the weekend. /EYS && .FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will peak Thursday and Friday. Interior highs will reach near 90 with RH sticking in the the teens. ERC values will return close to the 80th percentile, representing moderate to high fire danger. Said percentiles are near record breaking for the time of year but remain much lower than peak summer. Beyond just warm and dry conditions, a very positively tilted trough over the central California Coast will promote moderate northeast winds today, mostly restricted to high ridges as far north as central Humboldt County. Winds will be locally strong in southern and eastern Lake County with gusts mixing in the afternoon over 25 mph. These winds will promote areas of critical fire weather with a Red Flag warning in effect. Northeast winds will weaken Friday, but remain gusty along high ridgesat least through the morning. Conditions will be exceptionally dry Friday in the wake of the winds with many interior locations seeing single digit RH. /JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Red Flag Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ418- 419. Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for CAZ418-419. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  047 FXUS63 KAPX 150914 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 514 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances begin to flourish late afternoon and evening. - Windy and cooler Friday with continued showers. - Winds remain elevated this weekend, milder as well on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current water vapor satellite imagery shows two prominent, and necessary, features of note to our west. First is an upper low in the vicinity of the front range, another is a trough digging across Canada and the adjacent Dakotas. Relatively weak sfc reflections associated with both of these features, although the low pressure system associated with the upper low near the front range will inject an anomalous amount of moisture northward into northern Michigan later today and tonight as it tracks northeast across southwest Michigan. Warm, moist advection in conjunction with synoptic forcing will overspread the region beginning this afternoon, and remaining into portions of the overnight hours. Steady moderate rain is expected as a result, spreading from southwest to northeast on the north and northwest of the surface low track. Bit of a lull overnight due to the sfc low track for some. As the surface low pulls off to the northeast through the day on Friday, winds shift to the NNW with showers continuing. Cold advection and crashing H850 temps will result in lake convection as well, and thus through the day the typical NNW lake effect zones will become favored with continued showers. When all is said and done, the latest guidance shows a healthy swath of ~0.60-1.0"+ of rain, with local highs and lows, possible by Friday evening. Pressure gradient tightens as the sfc low moves off to the east with increasing low level winds. Wind gusts look to be in the 25 to 40 mph range, highest near Lake Michigan and during the late afternoon and evening. Moisture, synoptic ascent, and the pressure gradient relinquish through the night on Friday, and thus, precipitation chances, and winds, wane through the night. Significant troughing moving west to east across Canada this weekend will result in deepening low pressure system across Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and up into the vicinity of Hudson Bay. At the same time, sfc high pressure will reside and slowly shift across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. In-between these two surface features (N MI) will be a strengthening pressure gradient and thus breezy to windy conditions. Windiest day will be Sunday. It will still be cool on Saturday but by Sunday, those southwest winds will usher in a milder mass, with 60s expected. Heights aloft remain above normal through the early to middle portions of next week. Consequently, high temperatures remain well above normal for this time of year, with 60s common. The pattern will also be conducive to dry conditions. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 513 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR CIGs continue through much of the day, occasionally low VFR. Moisture continues to increase throughout the day, with a steady rain beginning during he afternoon and evening. Steadier rain begins ~18-21Z MBL & TVC, and 21-00Z other terminals, continuing into the overnight hours. As such, VSBYs drop (~2-3SM) and so do CIGs, generally IFR and LIFR this evening and overnight. Southeast winds generally on the lighter side today. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ322. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLDAVIATION...ELD  043 FXUS63 KEAX 150914 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely this morning and afternoon. However, rainfall totals have trended downward, and the remaining flood watch has been canceled. - A cold front will move through the region from west to east this afternoon, with northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 to 30 mph behind the front. - Much colder and drier air will move in behind the front, with high temperatures on Friday only reaching the low to mid 50s and gusty northwesterly winds continuing into Friday afternoon. - Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning should drop into the mid to upper 30s, with areas of frost likely. Temperatures may flirt with the freezing mark across northern Missouri and NE Kansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current H5 analysis shows the upper low centered over the Front Range, with enhanced southwesterly mid/upper level flow downstream across Kansas and Missouri. At the surface, the accompanying surface cyclone is currently lifting to the northeast out of northern Oklahoma. This has helped generate a large shield of showers and thunderstorms across eastern/southeastern Kansas, lifting to the northeast into our CWA. The surface low should continue to lift northeast through the morning hours, pulling a warm front south to north through much of the CWA and allowing for temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the area by early afternoon. Scattered showers with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms are likely through the remainder of the morning hours and into early afternoon. However, expected rainfall totals have trended significantly downward, and the remaining flood watch in effect across far southern portions of the CWA has been canceled. The closed mid/upper low across the Front Range is progged to become an open wave and eject into the central CONUS by later today, which will push the surface low and trailing cold front through the CWA from west to east this afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly behind the front, increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Colder temperatures and drier air will also move in behind the front. Another mid/upper trough will become more amplified and dig further south out of Canada and into the Midwest late tonight into early Friday, sending another reinforcing shot of colder and drier air, with temperatures falling into the mid 40s by Friday morning. With gusty northwesterly winds continuing, wind chills Friday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s. With strong cold air advection on Friday, temperatures will struggle to warm, and guidance has continued to trend colder with max temps Friday now only projected to reach the lower to mid 50s (although high res guidance suggests even colder temps than this). Gusty north northwesterly winds will continue through mid to late afternoon. The pressure gradient should begin to subside by Friday evening as a 1036 mb surface high slides eastward out of the central High Plains and toward our CWA. By Friday night, the surface high should be centered directly overhead, yielding calm winds, clear skies, and low dew points. This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across most of the region, with temperatures potentially flirting with the freezing mark across portions of northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. This should yield areas of frost across the area, with some sort of frost/freeze product potentially being needed depending on how guidance trends over the next 36 hours. Saturday should be a beautiful (albeit slightly cool) mid October day, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, clear skies, and light winds. Mid level ridging begins to build in from the west by Sunday and into next week out initially out ahead of a shortwave trough over Baja California and then out ahead of a longwave trough that is progged to develop off the West Coast by Monday/Tuesday. This should bring in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the low to mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon and mid to even upper 70s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ceilings will gradually become IFR heading into the overnight hours, and will continue through Thursday morning. Rain showers will spread across much of the area overnight. Thunderstorm potential will remain south of the area. Conditions should start to improve to MVFR by late Thursday afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...Krull  038 FXUS65 KBOI 150914 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 314 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/...The area will remain under strong ridging as the Pacific high continues to build in over the western CONUS. Dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures will continue today through Saturday. Clear skies and colder nighttime temperatures will favor the development of frosts and patchy fog this morning and Friday morning. Friday and Saturday could see daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal as the ridge centers right over our area. A weak, dry shortwave trough will dig across the northwest region Saturday, bringing a dry cold front across the area late Saturday. Breezy northwest winds, mainly over upper Treasure Valley and Magic Valley areas, are expected on Saturday with this frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...The aforementioned dry cold front moving across our area Sunday will help drop peak temperatures a few degrees, but will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Monday through Tuesday, our area will come under a strong southwest flow ahead of an incoming Pacific upper low from the Gulf of Alaska. This flow pattern will keep Monday slightly warmer than normal with elevated wind breezes from the south. There is better long-term guidance agreement on the upper low diving south along the northwest and California coasts before moving inland into the Great Basin Tuesday through Thursday. This pattern will return a cooldown and chances of precipitation over our area late Tuesday through Thursday. There remains some uncertainty over the magnitude and coverage extent of this potential multi-day precipitation event next week, especially for Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, next Thursday is looking to have the highest potential for areawide precipitation as the upper low crosses the Great Basin. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1140 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026 VFR. Areas of smoke from prescribed burning near KBNO KMYL. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NE 10-20kt. Surface winds: NW 5-10kt overnight, becoming light then E-SE 5-10kt Thu afternoon. KBOI...VFR. NW 5-10kt overnight, then shifting SE 5-10kt by Thu afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JY LONG TERM....JY AVIATION.....KA  162 FXUS66 KSEW 150918 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 218 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A ridge will bring dry and warm conditions through Friday. Wetter and cooler weather arrives on Saturday. Sunday remains cool with more wet weather headed our way on Monday. Another front may reach us midweek. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...High pressure and offshore flow will lead to dry and stable conditions across western WA today and Friday. Fog is forming across the lowlands this morning, especially in areas with calm winds, with pockets of dense fog expected. The fog will be shallow and burn off late this morning. Forecast highs will track warmer than normal with lower 70s expected. Areas near the water will be in the 60s. Offshore flow will peak overnight with gusty east winds along the Cascade crest and in the gaps (gusts to 20-30 MPH). Friday will be slightly warmer with interior temperatures reaching the mid 70s. Saturday's weather will be cooler and wetter as the ridge shifts east and a front/trough move in from the west. Rain will mostly fall during the morning hours with highest chances of seeing wetting rains along the coast and north part. The Seattle area on south may only see a trace to a few hundredths. Onshore flow will increase Saturday afternoon with showers and a convergence zone over Snohomish County. 33 && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...We're in between weather systems on Sunday but the air mass will remain cool. Sunday's morning lows will be in the 30s to mid 40s with temperatures near freezing across the south sound. Highs will be around 60 degrees. An upper low will spin offshore early next week keeping the weather cool and unsettled through Monday. The upper low will shift farther south on Tuesday for generally dry weather across western WA. Rain chances increase again on Wednesday as a weak front tracks down from B.C. 33 && .AVIATION...Areas of fog and low stratus bringing IFR to LIFR conditions are beginning to develop across portions of western Washington, most prolifically along and north of the metro area. Stratus and fog should continue to slowly fill in this morning. The biggest uncertainty is regarding the visibility--light north/northeasterly winds for some locations may allow for ceilings to remain a few hundred feet above the ground. Conditions should improve after 17-19Z this morning for mostly clear skies with high clouds through the remainder of the day. High cloud cover will persist tonight. High-res guidance is showing little to no development Friday morning, but NBM LAMP guidance is much more excited about development. Given the current discrepancy, will only introduce fog in the more prone locations for Friday morning at this time. Winds remain north/northeasterly 5 to 10 kt through the period. Easterly winds will persist through the Cascades with gusts up to 20- 25 kt through the gaps this afternoon and into this evening. KSEA...VFR early this morning, with IFR to LIFR cigs developing after around 11-13Z this morning. The biggest uncertainty will be with visibility as the winds may keep the vis higher than what is currently forecast. Stratus and fog look to scatter around 18-19Z followed by VFR conditions with high clouds through this evening. Fog/stratus development possible Friday morning but high clouds should keep it less widespread and guidance shows divergent solutions. Winds north/northeasterly 5-10 kt through this afternoon. Winds may turn east/southeasterly briefly as early as 20-22Z this afternoon, but more likely 00Z Fri through this evening before winds become more south/southwesterly Friday morning. 62 && .MARINE...Areas of fog have are beginning to develop across the river valleys of western Washington and is expected to expand across portions of the interior waters. Will continue to monitor for fog development and the potential for any dense fog advisories. Light winds near the surface may be able to keep ceilings up just above the surface and limit fog potential. Offshore flow will increase this morning as a thermal trough develops along the coast. Winds will peak this morning, but remain offshore through early Friday as the trough gets pushed inland by an incoming frontal system. This system will force winds to switch to onshore on Friday and increase Friday night into Saturday. The strongest winds will be most likely through the Strait of Juan de Fuca where there is a 35-45% chance of seeing up to low-end gale force gusts, but other locations such as the outer coastal waters and through Puget Sound and Hood Canal have 40-70% chances of seeing wind gusts over 20 kt. Winds look to decrease as the system departs Saturday evening. Winds look to remain relatively benign Sunday through early next week as systems are favored to pass by well offshore. Seas remain 4 to 6 ft through tonight, increasing to around 8 to near 10 ft Friday through the weekend. The forecast gets more uncertain on Monday as a low pressure system moves through well offshore, but could generate and send larger waves to the coastal waters. The most likely forecast remains in the 8 to 10 ft range, but waves could get as large as 13 to 16 ft depending on the exact track of this system. EPS and GEFS show a 20-30% chance of seas exceeding 12 ft Monday into Tuesday. 62 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties- Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties- Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area. PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && $$  386 FXUS63 KFSD 150925 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 425 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain coverage expands through mid-morning, then tapers off northwest to southeast through this afternoon. Rain totals range from around a tenth of an inch near US Highway 14 to around 0.75"/locally higher near Sioux City to Storm Lake. - Strong northwest wind gusts 35 to 45 mph develop behind the rain this afternoon into Friday morning. Gusts around 50 mph are expected across south central South Dakota, and possible (30-40% chance) along the Buffalo Ridge. - Moderate to high (50% or greater) chances of frost for most of the area Friday night/early Saturday, highest near and east of Interstate 29 with temperatures 36 degrees F or colder. Low to moderate (40% or less) chances of a freeze (temperatures at or below 32 degrees F) east of I-29. - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures return this weekend into early next week with highs back above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 425 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A more active 24-48 hours ahead, with a couple potential hazard periods for risks not related to precipitation following today's rain. Before these hazards arrive, periods of rain will continue through this morning as a southern stream low kicking out of the central Rockies opens up and phases with a northern stream trough diving southeast into the northern Plains. It looks as though by late morning-midday, rain will be most widespread across southeast portions of the forecast area, with a dry slot ahead of the northern stream wave working into northwest parts of the CWA. This drying will push southeast and bring an end to rain from northwest to southeast through the afternoon, however additional light wrap-around showers may move across northern and western parts of the forecast area tonight, mainly focused toward southwest Minnesota. Any additional rainfall with this activity would be very light. The dry push and associated strong cold advection will bring an increase in northwest winds as the rain winds down this afternoon. Strongest winds, with gusts nearing 50 mph at times, are expected in central South Dakota, including a few counties in our far western forecast area. The evening shift issued a Wind Advisory starting at 3 pm today for this area, running through midnight. This end time is on track for Jerauld to Douglas counties. However, the stronger winds look to persist through the Missouri River Valley counties beyond midnight, and have coordinated an extension for our far southwest 3 counties through 4 AM CDT. Some models show a secondary surge of cold advection late tonight into Friday morning, with 850mb winds increasing to 50kt. This could produce a broader area of 45-50 mph wind gusts across southeast SD/southwest MN from prior to sunrise through midday Friday. Neighboring offices coordinated to hold off on this additional advisory until confidence in location/timing increase. Winds gradually decrease through the day Friday as surface high pressure moves east across the Dakotas. This high pressure will bring clearing skies and decreasing winds Friday evening, which could allow for a quick temperature drop through the 40s, with some areas falling into the 30s already by mid to late evening. Will be a much more fall-like feel to outdoor activities Friday evening, so attendees should plan to dress accordingly! This leads into what should be the coldest night of the autumn season so far, and models have been trending colder with Friday night low temperatures. Beginning to look more favorable for widespread frost development across much of the forecast area and likely will see Frost Advisories hoisted at some point in the next 24-36 hours. Uncertainty comes in whether some parts of the area will need a Freeze warning for temperatures 32F or below. While probability of temperatures below 32F have been increasing over the past several forecast cycles, especially for portions of southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa, extent is still uncertain. The high pressure is quick to move east and even northwest Iowa should see an uptick in south winds by late tonight which could support a slight rebound in temperatures prior to sunrise Saturday. All that to say, anyone who still has sensitive vegetation outdoors will want to take action to harvest or protect the plants as needed. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Bufkit soundings indicate a persistent, shallow layer of low stratus clouds for the remainder of today. Clouds will likely limit our highs somewhat from what the NBM loaded, adjusted down slightly with a blend of NBM/CONSShort. Overnight lows will fall to the 40s. Meanwhile a southern stream upper trough located over the central Rockies will work east through the rest of today. Early this evening the trough and associated surface low will eject out onto the central plains and then accelerate northeast. As it does so scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will form over western Nebraska and Kansas. These will move northeast with the system and begin to impact south central South Dakota between roughly 6 and 8 pm CDT tonight. Scattered showers and storms should be in the Sioux Falls area roughly between 10 pm and midnight. As the surface low skirts just to the south of the CWA early Thursday morning showers and storms become more numerous, especially for areas along and south of I-90 and into northwest Iowa. Here a few stronger storms may produce more frequent lightning and isolated pockets of heavy rain. Severe weather is not anticipated. Late Thursday morning into the afternoon a northern stream upper trough and surface low will move into central Canada. A cold front will form off of this low and will pass through the region from the northwest to the southeast. Behind the front storms end and clouds begin to break up Thursday afternoon and into the evening. Simultaneously the northern stream wave extends south, eventually phasing into the southern stream wave. This will result in an amplifying effect as the now deep amplitude upper trough tightens and narrows. Thursday evening the LLJ responds to this amplification by ramping quickly up to 50+ mph. These strong winds will mix down resulting in surface gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Occasional gusts as high as 45 mph are also possible over central South Dakota. Our western most counties may briefly approach Wind Advisory criteria late Thursday evening, but guidance is not in good agreement at this time. As such, have opted to wait on a wind headline at this time. Winds generally decrease as you move to the east but will remain gusty at 25-35 mph. The stronger winds gradually move east overnight into Friday morning. Additional wind concerns will be along the lee side of Buffalo Ridge where additional gusts of 40+ mph are possible. As far as rain totals are concerned the latest guidance has trended down a little. Areas along Highway 14 and north will only see a trace up to a tenth or two. As you move south toward I-90 totals increase to a couple tenths up to 0.30 inches. For areas along and south of I-90 guidance indicates rain totals ranging from 0.25 to 0.75 inches, with highest totals focused over northwest Iowa. Areas along and south of Highway 20 may see isolated pockets up to 1 inch. Breezy winds continue into early Friday afternoon before gradually tapering off Friday evening. Friday highs will be on the cool side of climatology thanks to strong CAA on northwesterly winds, in the low to mid 50s. Skies clear through the day andremain clear through the overnight. This will allow for maximum radiational cooling, resulting in low temperatures by sunrise Saturday in the low to mid 30s. Area of frost are possible, mainly west of the James River Valley. Clear skies continue for Saturday as winds turn southerly and usher in warmer air. Highs will climb into the low to upper 60s, warmest over central South Dakota. No concerns at this time for frost Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the 40s. Sunday will be another mostly clear day with continued WAA. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 60s with lows in the 40s. Dry conditions and highs in the 60s and low 70s continue into the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Initial push of rain is moving northeast from between KHON/K9v9 to KFSD/KYKN and to just north of KSUX. Additional development is on-going across NE and is expected to fill in as it lifts north overnight. Very isolated storms remain possible closer to and south of the US Hwy 20 corridor through Thursday morning. Rain tapers off through the late morning into the afternoon hours from west to east. Lower VFR conditions and MVFR conditions into tonight will give way to MVFR and IFR conditions with rain and lower stratus. Conditions improve back to VFR toward Thursday afternoon through the rest of the period. Main focus after precipitation will be the increasing northwesterly winds Thursday afternoon and continuing into Friday morning. Gusts of 25 to 35 knots are expected by the mid to late afternoon hours, with gusts to 40 knots for south central SD. Could see some locally stronger gusts for the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge as well. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ050-057-063. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CDT tonight for SDZ052-058-064. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JH DISCUSSION...AJP AVIATION...SG  399 FXUS62 KMHX 150925 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 525 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Stratiform rain chances continue to increase Saturday. Chances for low pressure forming offshore increasing, strength of low still uncertain. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry with record heat possible through Friday. 2) Cold front moves through early Saturday, forming a low pressure system offshore. 3) Drastically cooler behind the front and low for Sunday, along with continued breezy northeasterly winds. Marine: Prolonged large seas this weekend into next week as offshore front stalls with long period fetch of northeasterly swell and increasing chances of low pressure development off the southeast coast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure builds in from the west through most of this week with sunny skies. Building hts as upper ridge strengthens sends temps soaring through the 80s and nearing 90 for some interior locales (record high climate section below). A dry back door front moves into nrn parts of ENC later today with some increasing cloud cover and slightly cooler temps behind it, but quickly retreats north by early Friday with another surge of swrly flow ahead of much stronger front. KEY MESSAGE 2...Trend of a delayed frontal progression continues, with majority of guidance suggesting a low pressure forms offshore as the front encounters the higher baroclinicity of the Gulf Stream. In addition, stratiform rain chances continue increasing behind the front Saturday. There seem to be three camps of model guidance, ALL of which result in hazardous marine conditions and some level of coastal concerns as high building in pinches the pressure gradient over ENC. 1. The first and most likely outcome (would currently give this a 60% chance of occurring) is a low pressure system forms pretty soon after the cold front reaches the Gulf Stream, as early as 00Z Sunday. The is supported by the 00Z Thursday runs of Euro (deterministic and ensemble), Euro AI, RRFS, and NAM. There is still a wide range of outcomes for strength, but weak steering flow should allow the low pressure system to meander offshore, tapping into the warm gulf stream waters and deepening. Eventual track and strength are still very uncertain. While unlikely, an eventual westward track back towards ENC is not out of the question. 2. The second outcome (would currently give this a 30% chance of occuring) is the front stalls along the Gulf Stream, forming a low hundreds of miles offshore a later on (around Mon-Tue). This outcome is supported by the deterministic GFS, some GEFS members and CMC. this outcome would still bring strong NE winds, but shorter in duration and less wave energy reaching coastal areas. 3. The third and least likely outcome (would currently give this a 10% chance of occurring) is the front stalls offshore and never generates a low pressure system. Strong NE winds would still occur as the high builds in, but like scenario 2, winds would be shorter duration and wave energy would be on the lower end. Regardless of which scenario plays out, there is HIGH confidence of marine impacts, and potential for waves 7+ ft reaching portions of the OBX. Winds advisory potential exists for the OBX zones, as well as perhaps portions of the adjacent coastal mainland. Will have to watch for minor coastal flood concerns for srn portions of Pamlico Sound and the coastal areas of the OBX with the sustained NE flow. KEY MESSAGE 3...Coolest and driest airmass for the fall season thus far builds in behind the front Sat night and beyond with temps taking a nosedive with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s (inland) and 50s (beaches). However, depending how offshore the front makes it, could keep things a bit milder than fcst if some clouds advect in from offshore keeping the nighttime mins a bit warmer than advertised. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR SKC continues with light swrly breezes. No guidance shows ANY fog development with all model suites showing winds remaining AoA 2-3kt through the overnight. Kept tempo MVFR for OAJ, which seems to be verifying well early this morning. There was a fire NW of the terminal in Duplin county as well as one NE of the terminal. Smoke plume was never dense enough to show on radar, and visible satellite showed the plume was thinning just before sunset. Did not include FU in the TAFs because of this, but lingering smoke could aid fog development/further dampen VIS should winds decouple. A dry backdoor front sags into the FA later today from N to S before briefly stalling somewhere between the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers overnight. No precip is expected, mostly just a wind shift and maybe some increased cloud coverage along and near the front. Chances for lowered CIG and VIS (with IFR/LIFR potential) increasing Thursday night, especially along and behind the stalled front. Outlook (Fri through Mon): Sub-VFR chances along and behind the meandering back door cold front early Friday. Pred VFR conditions return in the daytime Friday with swrly breezes inc ahead of cold front. Strong and slow moving cold front brings widespread light rain on Sat, with sub VFR likely behind the front later Sat with frontal inversion developing, along with gusty north winds through the day Sat. Clearing skies Sat night with winds tapering off as high pres attempts to build in for the latter half of the weekend into next week. && .MARINE... Latest obs show continuing SW winds 5-10 knots most locales with seas mainly 1-3 ft. High pressure will continue to the north allowing for predom swrly flow but no higher than 5-15 kt tonight with some gusts nearing 15 kt. Backdoor front oozes through the nrn waters and sound later today, though does not make it past Pamlico sound. To the north of the bndry, nerly breezes expected though remaining light, and to the south, generally swrly to srly continued light flow. Outlook (Fri through Mon): A strong cold front has trended slower, now not expected to clear the waters until Sat, at which point it is likely to form a low pressure system offshore. Strong nrly winds develop in it's wake on Sat, peaking later afternoon through Sat evening with gales appearing likely for all coastal waters and most of the sounds including Alligator river. There is potential for winds, gusts, and seas to be higher than forecast if a deepening low pressure system outcome occurs. Seas build quickly as well, with seas of 6-10+ ft appearing more likely through the weekend. Duration of gale force gusts is uncertain at this point, and there is potential for 6+ seas to linger well into next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 10/15 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 88/1935 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 89/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 86/1990 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 89/1985 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 90/1975 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 10/16 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1968 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 84/1917 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/2008 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1975 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RJ AVIATION...RJ MARINE...RJ  793 FXPQ50 PGUM 150934 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 734 PM ChST Thu Oct 15 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Gentle northeasterlies prevail across the Marianas, with mostly clear skies observed on satellite imagery. Tropical Depression Champi (29W) begins its movement toward the Marianas. && .Discussion... A mostly drier regime is expected to continue across the Marianas through Friday night, followed by quickly deteriorating conditions thereafter as Tropical Depression Champi (29W) continues to intensify and potentially develop into a typhoon prior to making its way across the region. The onset of tropical storm conditions is expected beginning late Saturday night or early Sunday morning, with potential onset of typhoon conditions later on Sunday. It continues to remain possible for said conditions to develop anywhere in the southern Marianas between Guam and Saipan. 15 to 25 mph northeast winds are expected to increase considerably beginning Saturday evening, with west tropical storm force winds of 60 to 70 mph with gusts to 100 mph possible come Sunday. The system is not expected to linger in the general area for too long, as its forward speed is expected to allow winds and showers to begin tapering down beginning Sunday night, with a chance for winds to fall below damaging levels as early as Monday. After, a ridge along the leeside of passing Champi is expected to move in, with a return of low-end patchy showers expected through the first half of next week. && .Marine... A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, and Tinian and Saipan waters. Gentle to moderate northeasterlies will prevail across the Marianas tonight through Friday night, followed by quickly deteriorating sea and surf conditions as TD Champi makes its way across the Marianas, potentially as a Typhoon Saturday night through Sunday night. As such, seas are expected to quickly rise above 20 feet during closest passage of 29W, producing dangerous seas possibly into Monday. Surf conditions are also expected to become hazardous, then quickly becoming dangerous and life threatening beginning Saturday night. Depending on the exact location of 29W as it moves through the Marianas, inundation of 2 to 4 feet, possibly higher, is possible along most reefs of the Marianas. && .Hydrology... As Tropical Depression Champi makes its way across the Marianas, it is expected to produce 5 to 8 inches of rainfall between Saturday and Monday, with localized amounts upwards of 12 inches possible near the center. As the rain forecast has remained quite consistent, and such rainfall amounts posing a flash flood threat, a Flood Watch is likely to be issued over the next day or so for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. && .Tropical Systems... At 4 PM, Tropical Depression Champi (29W) was centered 945 miles east of Guam, 925 miles east-southeast of Rota, 915 miles east-southeast of Tinian, and 910 miles east-southeast of Saipan. Champi was moving west-northwest at 13 mph. It is expected to make a turn toward the west, or possibly, west-southwest over the next couple of days as it strengthens. Champi is expected to approach the Marianas over the weekend, with tropical storm force winds possible as early as Saturday evening. Typhoon force winds are possible Sunday morning. As TD Champi continues to strengthen, the expected movement and intensity as it approaches the Marianas will become more clear. The latest forecast track takes Champi through the Rota channel, just north of Andersen AFB. It needs to be emphasized, this is a preliminary track, and definitely subject to change as time progresses. Based on the uncertainty with actual track, a Typhoon Watch was issued for the Marianas. Residents of the Mariana Islands should continue to monitor forecast for any changes in expected track and/or intensity as Champi approaches. For more information on TD Champi, see bulletins issued by JTWC under WMO header WTPN32 PGTW and by the NWS under WMO headers WTPQ32 PGUM and WTPQ82 PGUM. Tropical Depression 28W is centered 625 miles northwest of Saipan near 23N140E, moving west at 7 mph. 28W continues to slowly weaken and is expected to dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. For more information on TD 28W, see bulletins issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW, and by the National Weather Service (NWS) under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. && .Eastern Micronesia... Kosrae: Tropical Depression Champi (29W) is still having impacts on the weather at Pohnpei and Kosrae. For Kosrae, although the heavier showers have moved off to the northwest, the overnight altimetry pass showed 15 to 20 knot winds just east-northeast of Kosrae. Given that 29W continues to organize and strengthen, sustained winds just under 22 knots are likely with frequent gusts above that. Therefore, we extended the Small craft Advisory through 3 PM Friday. Seas of 6 to 8 feet and gentle to fresh winds will continue through this time, before gradually subsiding. Pohnpei: The heavier rainfall has moved off to your north and west, but scattered showers remain possible through Friday. Similar to Kosrae, frequent gusts to 30 knots remain likely. As such, your Small Craft Advisory also remains in effect through 3 PM Friday. Seas of 6 to 9 feet and gentle to fresh winds will continue through this time, before gradually subsiding. Majuro: Although you have no headlines in place, the monsoon trough located just north of you continues to produce scattered showers. This looks to continue through Friday night, before shower coverage decreases to isolated for the weekend. Winds will be light to gentle with seas of 4 to 6 feet. && .Western Micronesia... Chuuk: The main changes to the forecast were to hoist a Small Craft Advisory at Chuuk, beginning 5 PM Friday and continuing through 5 PM Sunday. As Tropical Depression Champi (29W) continues to strengthen into a tropical storm over the next 12 to 24 hours, an expanding wind field will commence. Sustained gentle to moderate winds will become moderate to fresh on Saturday. For now, we have frequent gusts to 30 kt as a start, but depending how the monsoon inflow band sets up, and how Champi evolves, this may need to be revisited. An increasing northeast to north swell meeting the southwest swell will add a layer of chop to the seas by early next week. Intra-island travel is highly discouraged from late Friday afternoon into early next week to account for this. As for precipitation, scattered showers will continue through at least the first part of the weekend, becoming isolated by early next week. Palau: Light to gentle winds will become gentle to moderate by Tuesday, with seas and surf building for the latter half of the week. Scattered oragraphically-induced showers may need to be added to the forecast Friday into Saturday, but for now we didn't include this as we want to see how the pattern reorientates as TD Champi (29W) evolved as it approaches the Marianas. Otherwise, isolated showers remain possible. Yap: The main story here is a northeast swell looks to arrive for the early to middle portion of next week, as Tropical Depression Champi (29W) continues to strengthen as it passes through and west of the Marianas. Otherwise, isolated showers remain possible. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...Typhoon Watch for GUZ001. MP...Typhoon Watch for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Typhoon Watch for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas/Tropical: Montvila/Mesa East/West Micronesia: Doll Tropical: Kleeschulte  113 FXUS62 KTAE 150942 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 542 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Patchy dense fog is possible from the early to mid-morning in the Suwanee Valley, Flint River Valley, and the FL Panhandle today. Another round of fog is likely again on Friday morning. - A strong cold frontal passage on Friday night will lead to gusty winds this weekend to 35 mph over land and 40 knots over coastal waters that may impact hurricane recovery efforts, including compromised trees leading to power outages, drones, improperly secured roof tarps, loose outdoor items, and hazardous boating. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 through Friday, turning sharply cooler this weekend with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure at the surface and aloft will gradually breakdown by Friday as a cold front approaches. The pattern will remain favorable for patchy dense fog this morning and Friday morning across portions of the region. Highs will be above normal in the mid-80s to around 90 through Friday with some humidity in the air as well. Cannot rule out a brief shower Friday or Friday night mainly closer to the coast. A strong but dry cold frontal passage is remains on tap Friday night, with a much cooler and drier air mass this weekend. Breezy conditions in the wake of the front may impact outdoor events and hurricane recovery efforts this weekend. Wind gusts up to 35 mph over land and 40 knots over the coastal waters are a good bet, especially on Saturday, with winds remaining elevated into early next week. Deep layer ridging over the region early next week should maintain dry weather with warming temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Fog is currently developing east of VLD and gradually building westward. The TAF continues tempo IFR vsbys through 13Z. VFR thereafter as well as the other sites through the period. Generally sky clear today then increasing high clouds tonight. Patchy fog, though not in the TAFs attm, may be added with better confidence in subsequent TAFs. Winds will be calm to light east to east-southeasterly. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Tranquil boating conditions expected into Friday with daily sea breezes. On Friday night, a cold front will blast across the waters, ushering in a sharp increase in fresh to strong northerly breezes with gale-force wind gusts. Winds are expected to remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Fair dispersion across most of the region today, except pockets of low dispersion through this afternoon in Southwest GA. On Friday, high dispersion chances increase ahead of a cold front. Cannot rule out a brief shower closer to the coast on Friday or on Friday night, otherwise dry conditions with minRH percentage values in the mid-30s to low 40s today and Friday. Light transport winds of 5 to 10 mph generally out of the east can be expected today, then clocking around to the west and increasing on Friday ahead of the cold front. A strong cold frontal passage is expected Friday night, with breezy conditions to following for this weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 through Friday, the decreasing to the 70s this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 With the recent rainfall, several rivers are observed/forecast in action stage. The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce may eventually go into minor flood, but confidence remains on the lower side for now. No additional rainfall or flooding is expected over the upcoming week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 67 88 63 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 86 67 85 61 / 0 0 10 10 Dothan 88 64 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 89 64 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 89 66 88 63 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 88 69 88 68 / 0 0 20 30 Apalachicola 83 70 83 65 / 0 0 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...LF  152 FXUS66 KMTR 150943 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 243 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a cooling trend begins Sunday into next week - Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and Friday - Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Tonight through Friday) Near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations, particularly the North Bay Interior Mountains, through Friday. A positively tilted upper level ridge remains over Oregon and Northern/Central California while a cut-off low lingers over Southern California. This setup promotes light to moderate offshore winds across the region with the potential for more moderate to gusty offshore winds across the higher elevations. Model guidance keeps gusts across the elevated terrain peaking between 20 to 30 mph with locally stronger gusts possible across the highest peaks (e.g. Mt. St. Helena). The GFS and HRRR are both in agreement that the SFO- WMC gradient will peak around -9 mb Thursday morning and -10 mb Thursday night into Friday. The NAM continues to be an outlier and suggests the gradient could peak around -14 mb but looking closer into their forecast wind gusts still keeps gusts in a similar, but slightly stronger range, of 25 to 35 mph. Very dry conditions are expected across the higher elevations during both the daytime and overnight hours. Much of the region will see daytime RH in the 10s to 20s with poor to very poor overnight recoveries with the worst recoveries across the higher elevations. Given the very dry conditions and potential for offshore winds, any spark has the potential to start a fire. Remember, one less spark one less wildfire. Warmer temperatures continue Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s to low 90s on Thursday and upper 80s to 90s on Friday. Patchy Moderate HeatRisk is expected on Thursday but becomes more widespread across urban areas on Friday. If you are outdoors during peak heating, make sure you are drinking plenty of water and taking frequent breaks in the shade. The marine layer remains mixed out through the short term due to the presence of the ridge so expect && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Offshore winds decrease by Friday afternoon/evening as upper level ridging weakens and broad troughing returns to the region. High temperatures Saturday will still be warm in the 80s to low 90s but cooler temperatures return Sunday into next week. By Sunday, broad troughing returns to the region with temperatures cooling into the 70s to low 80s. Fall weather returns in force next week as we get our first potential rainmaker of the season. This low pressure system looks to originate from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring much cooler, moister air into the region as the surface low weakens and moves into California next week. Highs will be seasonal to below normal in the 60s to low 70s across the interior and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. Rain chances increase Tuesday through late week with wetting rains (>0.10") likely across the Central Coast and potentially Santa Cruz County/the South Bay. Light rain is possible across the rest of the Bay Area but does not look to meet wetting rain criteria at this time. Guidance is showing a low (<10%) chance of thunderstorms next week so that will be something to keep an eye on as this event gets closer in time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM PDT WedOct 14 2026 Generally VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with some high resolution models depicting patchy coastal stratus developing tonight. Low confidence in HAF getting fog and low stratus. If it does happen, the most likely period for development would be 08-11Z before offshore winds mix out the lower layers. Light winds persist overnight, before a moderate offshore push in the interior Thursday morning, balanced by a gentle onshore flow developing in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light winds overnight will turn offshore Thursday morning before moderate northwest flow resumes in the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Light to gentle offshore winds persist overnight into Thursday morning before the moderate northwest flow resumes afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Generally VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with some high resolution models depicting patchy coastal stratus developing tonight. Low confidence in HAF getting fog and low stratus. If it does happen, the most likely period for development would be 08-11Z before offshore winds mix out the lower layers. Light winds persist overnight, before a moderate offshore push in the interior Thursday morning, balanced by a gentle onshore flow developing in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light winds overnight will turn offshore Thursday morning before moderate northwest flow resumes in the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Light to gentle offshore winds persist overnight into Thursday morning before the moderate northwest flow resumes afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 243 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moderate seas continue across the outer waters, while the inner waters see slight to moderate seas through Friday. During this time frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which will be accompanied with rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 502 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. The main areas of concern will be for the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills. The strongest winds look to be over the North Bay Interior Mountains where gusts 30-40 mph are possible, perhaps up to 45mph or higher for the highest elevations. The East Bay Hills will be breezy as well, but may be closer to 25-35 mph with locally higher gust for exposed ridges and areas of higher terrain. Both areas will be dry with poor overnight RH recovery, which combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Fire Weather Watch from this evening through Friday morning for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...DialH MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  532 FXUS61 KAKQ 150952 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 552 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Timing for morning showers has trended slightly later and linger into the afternoon for northern sections. The Friday night/Saturday cold front has also trended slightly later, with higher rain chances lingering well into Saturday, and potentially into early next week along the coast. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the northern nearshore coastal waters and the lower Chesapeake Bay. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front drops southward this morning with increasing clouds and much cooler temperatures. Some light rain is forecast across the northern half of the area. 2) Warm and breezy Friday with gusty showers along the front Friday night into Saturday. Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 310 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front drops southward this morning with increasing clouds and much cooler temperatures. Some light rain is forecast across the northern half of the area. Surface observations show a cold front translating southward across the area as high pressure builds in from the NW. Satellite shows quite a bit of mid level cloud cover moving into the region. Radar shows some very light returns in the Piedmont but little if any precip is making it to the ground. Expect the front to continue southward through the morning with winds becoming NE as high pressure to the north allows for CAD to develop across the region. Becoming a bit breezy near the coast today. 00z guidance has continued the trend of shaving a degree or two off of previously forecast temperatures behind this backdoor front. Highs range from the mid 60s N, upper 60s to low 70s along S of I-64, and upper 70s to low 80s near and S of the VA/NC border. High temps will occur in the morning for the northern half of the area with temps holding steady or slowly falling thereafter as CAD strengthens. It still appears that there will be an uptick in precip coverage across the NW and N this morning into the afternoon. QPF will be light with 0.1- 0.15" across the north, tapering to a few hundredths near Richmond and little to nothing south of US-460. Some light rain or drizzle may linger into tonight, mainly for the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. Low temps range from the upper 50s NW to the mid/upper 60s SE. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm and breezy Friday with gusty showers along the front Friday night into Saturday. Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Today's front will lift northward as a warm front on Friday, scouring out the low level stable CAD airmass as an upper trough digs into the Midwest and strengthens a surface low over the eastern Great Lakes. High temps rebound into the mid and even upper 80s with breezy SW winds. It now appears that the daylight hours of Friday will be dry with the 00z models continuing to slow the progression of the strong front. PoPs increase after sunset, along and ahead of the surging cold front. Hi-res guidance shows the potential for thin strongly-forced line of convection along the front Friday evening. With the somewhat slower frontal timing, even less instability is available than it looked 24 hours ago. However, strong kinematics aloft will likely be able to mix down to the surface with wind gusts 30-40 mph possible as the front comes through. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) across the the N and NE portions of the area for strong to severe wind gusts. There will be little if any thunder with these showers despite the potential for strong wind gusts. Models have continued to trend toward a more amplified upper level pattern across the SE CONUS this weekend. The NAM and ECMWF are the most bullish, developing a closed upper low and coastal surface low while the GFS/Canadian models are much more progressive. This bimodal split in the guidance leads to significant uncertainty regarding the sensible weather this weekend and likely well into next week. Regardless, it still appears that much colder air will spill into the area Saturday and Sunday with high temps in the mid 50s NW to the low/mid 60s SE. Rainfall chances and placement are where the highest uncertainty lies. The amplified solutions would result in rainfall continuing on Saturday and lingering potentially into early next week as low pressure lingers offshore. Have trended PoPs and QPF toward the coastal low scenario but with very low confidence at this time. Cold overnight lows Saturday night still appear on track but with more wind likely to diminish the potential for frost, even in the typically colder Piedmont spots. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 550 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions start the 12z/15 TAF period. A cold front is currently dropping south across the region with increasing clouds and northerly winds behind the boundary. Some light returns are noted on radar across the far northern counties. Clouds will continue to spread south and thicken/lower toward sunrise. MVFR CIGs likely at RIC around 15z, spreading south and east to PHF, ORF, and ECG in the 16-17z timeframe. SBY sees MVFR by mid to late afternoon along with a chance for light rainfall. RIC will also likely see some rain but lower confidence in timing/coverage. The remaining terminals are forecast to stay mostly dry but a shower or two may impact PHF. Winds become NE this morning and increase to 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt at PHF and ORF by mid morning. Lower-end MVFR CIGs this afternoon will approach IFR thresholds early this evening with IFR forecast tonight. Guidance also suggests some VSBY restrictions after midnight before the front starts to lift back to the north. Outlook: The front will lift back north of the area Friday, allowing a return to VFR conditions. Breezy SW winds develop by late morning and persist through the day. Deteriorating flying conditions return later Fri evening through Sat evening as a second, stronger cold front crosses the area. Additional rain chances and gusty NW winds are expected Sat morning into the afternoon, especially E. && .MARINE... As of 310 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - NE winds increase behind a backdoor cold front this morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles and the lower Chesapeake Bay. - A longer-duration wind event is likely along and behind a strong cold front beginning later Friday, potentially lingering through most of the weekend. NNW winds will likely frequently gust over 34 kt for a period of time. A backdoor cold front is dropping across the region early this morning, but hasn't quite made it to the local waters as ~3am obs. Obs still show WSW winds around 10kt, seas around 2ft, and waves in the bay around 1ft. Winds will gradually become NE behind the front from N to S between this writing and ~8/9am. These winds will be breezy and near or just above advisory criteria at 15-20kt. Winds should peak around mid-morning with highest winds over coastal waters north of Cape Charles and in the lower Ches. Bay. Small Craft Advisories are unchanged from the previous issuance and are in effect for the nearshore coastal waters north of Cape Charles, the mouth of the bay, and the lower bay. Winds diminish during the late afternoon into the evening becoming easterly. Southwest flow then returns early Friday morning ahead of the next front. SSW flow ramps up to 15-20kt again on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the stronger front. Strong CAA behind the front over the still-warm waters will lead to windy conditions. Confidence is high in at least strong SCA conditions with confidence in gale-force gusts continuing to increase. North winds increase to 25-30kt behind the front with gusts potentially as high as 40kt. Local wind probs continue to show 70-90% for 34kt+ gusts for much of the Ches Bay and especially the coastal waters south of Cape Charles for Saturday. Winds become more NE and remain in at least the strong SCA range through Sunday morning. Still just a bit early for Gale Watches, but they will likely be going up soon. Seas are also expected to increase substantially and could possibly exceed 6-9 ft. Uncertainty is increased past early Sunday, though, now that the possibility of coastal low pressure developing has been introduced by guidance. There is still a large spread in the strength and positioning of this potential low, which of course has a large impact on the winds. Previous forecasts had winds dropping off quickly Sunday as high pressure built in behind the front, but deepening low pressure along the coast would mean a continuation of strong onshore flow into early next week. Regardless, onshore flow of some sort looks to remain for much of the next week, so elevated seas will probably take a while to come down to below advisory level. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632- 634-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652. && $$ DISCUSSION...RHR AVIATION...RHR MARINE...AC  546 FXUS63 KIND 150953 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 553 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms today, with isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds this afternoon and evening - Strong post-frontal northwest winds will gust between 25 and 35 mph on Friday - Widespread frost and localized freeze conditions are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning && .DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today through Friday. As of early this morning, the front that brought rain to central Indiana is south of the forecast area, but as the next low pressure system moves in from the Central Plains later this morning, that front is expected to push back to the north. Ahead of the boundary, poleward moisture advection characterized by an 850 mb low-level jet of 40-50 kt will lift surface dew points into the low-to-mid 60s, creating a short window in the mid to late afternoon hours where MLCAPE could reach 750 to 1250 J/kg along and south of the I-70 corridor by early afternoon. Kinematic fields are quite robust, with 500 mb mid-level flow around 50-60 kt yielding effective bulk shear of 45-55 kt. This deep-layer shear will favor organized multi-cell clusters and linear segments capable of bowing along with an increasing threat for a few discrete supercells late this afternoon into the evening. Low-level 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values of 100-150 m2/s2 will support an isolated brief spin-up along the warm front, but that threat will be conditional on the front location and extent of daytime warming. Thus the dominant convective hazard will be damaging straight-line downdraft winds up to 60 mph via momentum transport with the tornado threat being secondary. HREF ensemble members (HRRR, FV3, and ARW) depict initial convective development across west-central Indiana between 18Z and 20Z, progressing across the Indianapolis metro area between 21Z and 00Z, and exiting eastern counties by 02Z-04Z with the potential that this occurs over 2 rounds through the day QPF will average between 0.50 and 1.00 inches; localized training could produce minor nuisance ponding in poor drainage areas, but the progressive motion of the system will mitigate widespread flash flood concerns. The cold front will push southeast of the forecast area by 03Z, bringing an end to heavier precipitation with lingering light rain through the night. Cold air advection will ensue overnight as 850 mb temperatures plummet from +12C to near +1C by Friday afternoon. The tight pressure gradient between the departing surface low over eastern Canada and a Canadian high building into the Plains will generate efficient boundary-layer momentum transfer. Diurnal mixing into the 850-800 mb layer will tap into 35-40 kt ambient flow, supporting sustained northwest winds of 18-25 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph Friday afternoon. Cyclonic flow and steep low- level lapse rates will foster an extensive stratocumulus deck, particularly across the northern two-thirds of the CWA. Highs on Friday will remain suppressed, ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south. Winds Friday night should keep frost formation limited even as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s, but sheltered areas could see some frost ahead of a widespread frost Saturday night. Saturday Through Wednesday. A broad longwave trough will anchor across the eastern CONUS on Saturday as a strong surface anticyclone shifts from the Upper Mississippi Valley southeastward across the Ohio Valley through Sunday. The core of the cold pool will sit overhead Saturday, keeping 850 mb temperatures around 0C to +2C. Despite clearing skies and subsidence, daytime highs on Saturday willstruggle to reach out of the mid 50s, 10-15 degrees below normal. Saturday night into Sunday morning represents the primary frost and low-end freeze window of the period. The surface high center will settle directly over central Indiana by 09Z Sunday, decoupling the boundary layer and yielding calm winds, clear skies, and a very dry ambient air mass with dew points in the upper 20s to low 30s. Strong radiational cooling will cause overnight minimum temperatures to drop into the lower to mid-30s across the entire forecast area, with rural drainage basins and traditional cold spots likely dropping near freezing. Widespread frost is expected across central Indiana, and freeze conditions are probable in sheltered rural areas. Frost and freeze headlines will likely be required as confidence remains high across deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and their respective ensemble suites. The anticyclone will drift eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, allowing insolation to rebound highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows Sunday night will remain cool, in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with patchy frost confined to far eastern rural valleys before low-level winds back to the south. For Monday through Wednesday, the synoptic pattern transitions as upper-level ridging builds over the eastern states and a deep trough carves out over the western CONUS. Steady south-southwesterly return flow will drive a significant warm air advection regime across the Ohio Valley. 850 mb temperatures will moderate to +10C to +13C, pushing daytime highs into the lower 70s on Monday and mid-70s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will moderate into the upper 40s to mid-50s. Medium-range guidance indicates an ejecting northern-stream shortwave trough will drag an associated surface cold front toward the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture convergence ahead of this boundary will raise precipitable water values back above 1.25 inches, supporting chance to likely PoPs for rain showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Displaced upper-level dynamic support and marginal instability currently suggest a low probability of severe weather with this mid-week frontal passage. Temperatures on Wednesday will run in the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of the front. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 552 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Impacts: - MVFR to IFR cigs are expected for much of this TAF period - Showers and storms expected this afternoon, confidence highest at HUF and BMG - Additional showers tonight, coverage decreasing after 06Z - Wind shifts through the period - Wind gusts 15-20kt tonight, up to 25kt after 15Z Friday Discussion: MVFR cigs are expected for much of the day with periods of VFR ahead of the next round of rain during the afternoon hours. Confidence is highest in the 19Z to 00Z timeframe towards BMG and HUF where both brief gusty winds and lightning are possible. The lightning potential looks lower for LAF and IND with thunder chances decreasing after 02Z. Vsbys should remain VFR outside of stronger showers and storms. Easterly winds this morning will become southerly this afternoon, and westerly during the evening before finally turning to the northwest during the overnight into Friday. Gusts are expected to start late this evening outside of convection and continue through the remainder of the TAF period with peak gusts up to 25kt after 15Z Friday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...White DISCUSSION...White  567 FXUS63 KIWX 150954 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 554 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain possible today, mainly west of I-69. - There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms (mainly wind) along and south of US Route 24 this evening. Confidence in severe weather is low. - Turning much cooler and windy for Friday with some lake effect rain showers expected. Watching for frost chances, which appear the most possible Sunday morning, but Saturday morning's chances cannot be ruled out. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure slides eastward this morning across the northern Great Lakes. This allowed drier air to seep into the area behind the slowly southward-moving cold front from Wednesday. This front quickly turns around into a northward-moving warm front today as a deep upper low forces a surface low northward along the western extension of the baroclinic zone down to the Southern Plains. So, the attention turns to the timing of the surface warm sector's arrival to see if we can get surface-based or only elevated convection. The GFS still has areas of large scale ascent moving through the area this afternoon whereas the ECMWF appears to have most of the better lift moving north of the area. The drier the low levels can get and maybe lesser cloud cover before sunrise would be better for instability formation. Indications in both the NAM and the HRRR are that the surface warm front waits until 2 to 4z to get into our southern 1 to 2 rows of zones, which would allow a short time period (1 to 3 hours?) for surface-based convection after that. The main ingredient of concern is the shear, which the HRRR indicates has around 45 kts of EBWD shear. Now, because the low levels up to 850 mb are essentially saturated, LCLs are sub-1000m, but instability is 500 J/kg or below. So, perhaps there could be some shallow supercells or cells with embedded rotation. With the moist PWATs around 1.8 inches, heavy rain rates could occur, but cell motions are rather fast likely limiting overall flood threat; that and the fact that we've been dry for so long. The other possibility would be a moisture loaded core- collapsing damaging wind threat, but that weak of instability may also limit that threat. The cold front slides through overnight meaning the rain threat is out of the area by 12z Friday. The aforementioned upper low is squeezed northeastward out ahead of a diving upper low from Canada. On it's back side is a strong 1040 mb surface high indicative of relatively cold air that its bringing with it. This brings in a couple of hazards that we'll get to describing here including lake effect rain, gusty winds, and potentially a frost chance. For the lake effect rain, the lake needs to get some instability going first as well as low level convergence and a return of low level moisture behind the cold front. Northwest wind convergence combines with these features around 12z Friday and would expect the intensity of lake enhancement to increase through around 18z when the vigorous vort max swings through. Given lake temps of 62 degrees, BUFKIT NAM soundings indicate 15 to 25 degree delta T values with tall lake induced inversions during the afternoon. However, there are indications that dry air begins to work into the low levels during the evening hours after the low level trough moves through and trajectories go more northerly. Low level moisture moves out of the area and there are indications that rain subsides by 12z Saturday, but could see lake effect clouds lingering Saturday morning, especially in the west. Then, northwest winds swinging through Friday evening gust between 30 and 40 mph, highest along the surface trough, which could bring downa stray 45 mph gust. Now, the cold air coming in Friday night has 850 mb temps down to -2C 12z Saturday morning before warming ensues. The pressure gradient slackens overnight into early Saturday morning and cloud cover also dissipates overnight bringing some questions about how scattered out clouds can be east of US-31. Given forecast lows securely in the 30s Friday night, we'll have to watch for frost chances then, but wind and cloud cover complicate chances. A dry day continues on Saturday and surface high pressure overhead continues to keep the area calm wind-wise. Which allows a second opportunity for frost Saturday night as the core of the cold air lifts northeastward. Forecast lows dip down into the 30s again, but an increased gradient attempts to enter from the north. This appears to be the only complication for another frost attempt Saturday night. Looking ahead, even over the next 2 to 3 days, anomalous high pressure building near Greenland causing blocking to build peaks during the 16th to 21st of October. This is about the time that the NAO/AO dips negative. Meanwhile, the aforementioned baroclinic zone has pushed eastward potentially stalling along the eastern seaboard and forming an upper low or continuing to push eastward. Either way, this allows a sprawling area of high pressure to remain across the area until at least around Thursday of next week and potentially even longer keeping dry air overhead. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 549 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No significant changes to TAFs with MVFR cigs persisting at KSBN, but improvement occurred at KFWA. Cigs will likely bounce around prior to the arrival of any showers and closer proximity to the approaching front and sfc low. In the wake of the cold front, winds will shift to more of a west or northwest direction and pick up with gusts of 25 to 30 kts starting to materialize towards the end of the period and especially beyond. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Fisher  702 FXUS63 KBIS 150958 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 458 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph develop this morning behind a cold front. The winds will continue into this evening before gradually diminishing from northwest to southeast tonight. - Widespread freezing temperatures are possible Thursday night into Friday morning, especially over western locations. - Notably milder temperatures to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current surface analysis places low over western Manitoba with cold front dropping down through western North Dakota into northwest South Dakota, while high settles through Alberta into western/central Montana. Upper level analysis places low over Colorado, with northern stream short wave now pushing through Saskatchewan nudging into the Northern Plains. For today, aforementioned front will continue its progression through the state with winds increasing in its wake given the pressure gradient and cold air advection. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that ongoing mention of gusts to 55 mph in the Wind Advisory remain reasonable across the area. The only change to the headline was to extend the expiration of the James River Valley and parts of south central North Dakota into the overnight hours as winds look to be slow to diminish over that area. Along with the wind, expect to see a few light rain showers in the wake of the front with the passing short wave. Expect this could lead to some brief enhancement of wind gusts as light showers pass through. As we go through tonight, high slides into western North Dakota and skies clear, which will allow temperatures to drop off to below freezing. The question is how far east the skies will clear out over central North dakota allowing temperatures to drop off. Therefore, will hold off on any freeze headlines for now until we can get another look at this later today. On Friday, surface high slides off to the south/east, while upper ridging to the west slides easterly. This will allow temperatures to rebound, though highs will still be a bit below average. Upper ridge continues its easterly progression going into Saturday, when temperatures will climb well above average, with mid 60s to mid 70s through the area. Seasonably mild temperatures and dry conditions continue into the first part of the upcoming week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light rain continues over southern portions of North Dakota, though ceilings and visibility should remain VFR. The exception being in the southern James River Valley where some low level stratus will linger for a few more hours south of KJMS. A passing cold front will result in strong northwesterly winds developing during the day, which will linger into the evening hours. MVFR ceilings, along with the potential for isolated showers, are expected for most of the state behind the front. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NDZ001>005-009-010-012- 013-017>020-022-031>033-035-040>044-055>062. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS  725 FXUS66 KPQR 150958 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 258 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure and offshore easterly winds will bring dry and unseasonably warm temperatures today and Friday. The strongest easterly winds are expected along the Columbia River Gorge and western slopes of the Cascades. A weak cold front will bring chances for light rain late Friday night into Saturday, before high pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. The next chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday with an approaching low pressure system, although guidance continues to trend drier. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Satellite imagery and surface observations as of early Thursday morning depict mostly clear skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as an upper-level ridge moves overhead. Will likely remain clear through the morning, though there is a low (10-20%) chance that some stratus develops across the Willamette Valley through 8-9 AM. Today and Friday will be the warmest days of the week, with high temperatures forecast in the upper 70s across interior valleys and 60s along the coast. Some locations may even reach 80 degrees, with a 10-30% chance along the I-5 corridor and a 50-70% chance along valleys of the Cascade foothills. Although high temperatures are expected to be around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October, most locations are not expected to break any records (which were mainly set back in 2022). These could be our last "hot" days of the year, as we typically see temperatures drop off during the second half of October. In addition to warm temperatures, will also see increasing offshore easterly winds beginning this morning along the Columbia River Gorge, eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro, Cascades, and Cascade foothills. Model guidance continues to suggest surface pressure gradients tightening to -5 to -6 mb between Troutdale and The Dalles, producing wind gusts up to 25-35 mph, except up to 45-50 mph on wind-prone exposed ridgetops. Pressure gradients slacken later Friday morning with winds easing by the afternoon. Onshore flow returns by late Friday night into early Saturday morning ahead of an incoming weak cold front. -10/DH && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The aforementioned front will quickly swings through on Saturday, returning cooler temperatures and chances for light rain. Bulk of the precipitation is aimed towards British Columbia and far northwest Washington, so the further south you go in northwest Oregon such as Lincoln County or the southern Willamette Valley, the more likely conditions remain completely dry. Chances for rain totals exceeding 0.10 inch from 5 PM Friday to 5 PM Saturday are only 5-15% from Salem to Longview, and 10-30% along the coast from Tillamook northward and the south WA/north OR Cascades. Conditions quickly dry out Saturday night to Sunday as transient shortwave ridge passes through. Expect seasonable temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across interior valleys and 50s along the coast and Cascades. Monday to Tuesday, the majority of ensemble members are in agreement that an upper-level trough from the northeast Pacific will approach the Pacific Northwest, returning chances for rain between early Monday morning and late Monday night. Will note that these chances have gone down significantly, as of 75% of ensemble members are now showing this trough staying further offshore and progressing southward toward California rather than moving completely over the Pacific Northwest. If this scenario occurs, precipitation would be limited in our area. Chances for 24-hour rain totals exceeding 0.25 inch between 5 AM Monday to 5 AM Tuesday have fallen to 15-20% along the coast, Coast Range, and Willapa Hills, and 5-10% along the I-5 corridor. By Wednesday, ensembles have the upper trough swinging into central California, while weak high pressure re-builds over the Pacific Northwest, favoring predominately dry conditions. At the same time, it does appear that another upper-level trough will begin to approach British Columbia and potentially make its way down into the Pacific Northwest late next week, returning chances for precipitation. -10 && .AVIATION...Through 12Z Friday...Satellite imagery and terminal observations as of early Thursday morning depict VFR conditions with clear skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as an upper-level ridge moves over the Pacific Northwest. Expect clear conditions to continue through the morning, though there is a 10-20% chance for some MVFR stratus or lower across the central/southern Willamette Valley at any given hour through 15-16z Fri. Otherwise, sunny skies will continue today. Offshore flow increases this morning as pressure gradients tighten. The strongest winds are expected through the Columbia River Gorge and eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro Area, bringing gusts of 24-26 kt to KTTD later this morning and 21-23 kt to KPDX after 18-21z Fri. Will also see easterly winds along the coast as well, however, those winds generally remain under 10 kt today. For the rest of the central and southern Willamette Valley, expect light northerly to northeasterly winds. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. West/northwesterly winds less than 5 kt through 13-14z Thu, then turning easterly. Easterly winds increase this afternoon with gusts up to 21-23 kt. Winds gradually weaken after 04-06z Fri. -10 && .MARINE...Benign marine conditions continue. A thermal trough along the coast will bring light, east/northeasterly winds through this morning. Later this afternoon, the thermal trough will break down, returning northerly to northwesterly winds over the waters. A series of fronts passing through the waters will turn winds southerly Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday. Seas remain around 4-7 ft at 10-12 seconds through early Saturday morning. A steeper northwesterly swell arrives this weekend, building seas to 7-9 ft by Saturday evening and 10-12 ft early next week. There is a 5-15% chance for seas exceeding 15 ft on Monday, with the highest chances north of Cape Foulweather and beyond 30-40 NM. Will also note that the long periods from the swells will result in a moderate sneaker wave threat this week. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -10/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland