828 FXUS63 KUNR 151103 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 503 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain will end this morning across southwestern to south-central South Dakota. - Northwest winds will gust up to 55 mph today and tonight across large portions of the western South Dakota plains. A Wind Advisory is in effect. - Widespread freezing temperatures expected tonight through Friday morning. Freeze Warning in effect. - Dry and near-seasonal temperatures expected most days through early next week. Above average temperatures possible Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Overall trend continues, with little change to the forecast through the weekend. Have tweaked PoPs tonight slightly based off CAMs and ongoing precipitation. Kept with the trend of toning down post-frontal winds for Thursday, as the NBM is still running pretty high. Hi-res models and MOS guidance continues to point to widespread gusts 45-55 mph for much of Thursday over the western SD plains. Wind Advisory remains in effect for 11 AM to 10 PM MDT. With much cooler temperatures behind the front. Freeze warning will be needed for Friday morning, however am holding off, given the current headlines in effect for Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Upper low is centered near the Four Corners region with upper level ascent overspreading the region. Precipitation will increase across northeastern WY later this afternoon, spreading into southwestern SD into south-central SD after 06z tonight. Precipitation will be focused along the NE/SD border where 0.5-1.25" of rain is possible (probability >0.5" ~70-80%). Precipitation amounts taper off rapidly closer to I-90 with spotty, light amounts north of I-90. Rain ends Thursday morning as the system pushes east. Upper level trough pushes through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday. Surface low pressure drops out of Canada into the Upper Midwest with a cold front to sweep through the forecast area Thursday morning and afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds expected behind the front with widespread 40 to 55 mph gusts, strongest across northwestern SD and portions of the western SD plains. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for these areas. Transient high wind gusts (> 60 mph) are possible, although coverage and frequency do not warrant High Wind headlines. Cold air advection and clearing skies will result in widespread freezing/sub-freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning for the majority of the forecast area. Upper level ridging quickly builds over the western half of the country Friday into the weekend. Above average temperatures are forecast for the weekend into early next week with elevated fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued At 504 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain showers and MVFR/IFR conditions over SW to SCentral SD will gradually move eastward and dissipate this morning. VFR conditions will follow areawide by midday and continue through the rest of the forecast period. Strong NW winds will develop this morning and continue through tonight, especially across western to central SD. Gusts up to 50kt are possible. Winds across NE WY will gust up to 35kt. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 11 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-026-030>032-041>043-072-073-077-078. Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ046-047-049. WY...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ054>056-058>060. && $$ UPDATE...Dye DISCUSSION...SE AVIATION...13  939 FXUS62 KCHS 151106 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 706 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday. - 2) Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday. Overall, warm and dry conditions will prevail through Friday. Ridging aloft will steadily slip eastward and off the coast by Friday morning as a sharp trough shifts through the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region. At the surface, weak high pressure will sit across the area today moving off the coast Friday as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest late in the day. We will again be near daily records today (see Climate section) followed by more mid to upper 80s for Friday. Patchy shallow ground fog is expected again this morning. While widespread significant visibility reduction is not expected, there could be a few patches that produce sharp visibility changes over short distances. KEY MESSAGE 2: Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. Friday: High pressure will gradually shift offshore on Friday as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. This will yield warm conditions ahead of the boundary, with afternoon highs in the mid to high 80s. Southwesterly winds are expected to increase somewhat during the day as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front. The latest model guidance generally favors a relatively dry frontal passage with a few sprinkles late Friday night into Saturday morning mainly across portions of northern Dorchester and Berkeley Counties. The front is forecast to cross the region overnight, with cooler and drier air filtering into the area from the north. Saturday: A noticeably cooler airmass should be present across the region on Saturday in wake of the cold front. High temperatures will struggle to reach around 70 degrees across much of the region, representing a substantial change from the warmth experienced during the work week. Expect north- northeasterly winds to become quite breezy with speeds 15-20 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. The combination of cooler temperatures and persistent winds will make conditions feel distinctly more like fall. Saturday night will turn chilly as high pressure continues to build southward across the Carolinas and into Georgia. Sunday: Expect cool and breezy conditions to continue as high pressure continues to expand into the Eastern CONUS. Afternoon temperatures will range from low to mid 60s across much of the region with upper 60s along the coastline. Overnight lows may fall into the upper 40s across inland locations, with readings in the 50s closer to the coastline. The combination of low humidity, rain-free forecast, and periods of sunshine should produce crisp, seasonable fall-like weather. The center of surface high pressure should shift offshore of the New England coast on Monday, resulting in winds to weaken and shift from the east-northeast. Temperatures across the CWA should warm near seasonable normals, mid to upper 70s. Gradual warming expected through mid-week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z Friday. There is some patchy fog around the area this morning, mostly in the form of shallow ground fog. This will dissipate quickly with the onset of heating. Otherwise, no significant forecast concerns. We will likely see patchy fog around Friday morning as well. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Today through Friday: Conditions will remain quiet across the local waters today with winds topping out around 10 knots this afternoon and evening. By Friday, winds will turn to become more southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds are expected to top out in the 10-15 knot range for most of the day, increasing into the 15-20 knot range late. Seas are expected to average around 2 feet through Friday. Friday through Monday: As a strong cold front passes across the local waters late Friday night into Saturday morning, this will yield to a sharp wind shift and deteriorating marine conditions. Winds will shift to the north and strengthen, with sustained winds preaching 25-30 kts with gusts up to 35-45 kts possible through Sunday night. This will likely warrant Gale Warnings for all of the local waters + a Small Craft Advisory for the Charleston Harbor on Friday night through early Monday morning. It's important to note that some guidance has trended much stronger for the marine wind gusts on Sunday into Sunday evening, with the NBM continuing to indicate the change for storm force (48 kts) wind gusts across the outer Georgia waters and portions of the offshore South Carolina waters. It's possible that a Storm Watch/Warning might be warranted for that portion of the waters Saturday night into Sunday night. Seas will build to 7 to 10 ft, with 10 to 15 ft possible farther offshore (highest across the outer Georgia waters). The elevated seas will likely result in breakers in excess of 5 ft, with High Surf conditions this weekend, especially along the GA coast. Thereafter, the post-frontal airmass will continue to modify with winds gradually easing backwards and turning more easterly on Monday. However, a longer-period swell may persist after the local winds diminish with elevated seas forecast to last into the mid-week. Mariners should continue monitor the forecast for this weekend before heading offshore. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 15: KCHS: 87/2021 KCXM: 88/1925 KSAV: 90/1925 && .EQUIPMENT... The National Weather Service Charleston Doppler Radar (KCLX) is expected to be down for around two hours Thursday morning for maintenance. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ BSH/Dennis  032 FXUS64 KCRP 151107 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 607 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A cold front Friday will bring cooler and drier conditions to South Texas this weekend. - Gale Watch is in effect Friday Afternoon through Saturday Afternoon. - A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for the coastal areas, possibly farther inland, for Friday-Saturday. - Very low rain chances across South Texas today with a slight increase Friday associated with the cold front. - Moderate to High Rip Current Risk possible Friday through the weekend. - Minor coastal flooding is expected Friday night into Saturday during time of high tide. Coastal flooding could continue into Sunday. - Elevated to critical fire weather concerns possible briefly behind the cold front Friday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Another unseasonably hot day today with most locations remaining rain free due to ridging aloft. Although, a rogue shower or two can't be ruled out. The main weather event will be a strong cold front moving through S TX on Friday, finally bringing some relief from the heat. The cooler and drier conditions will be more noticeable Friday night. A pleasant weekend is in store for S TX with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to low 60s. Temperatures begin to warm back up early next week. Timing of the cold front is still somewhat uncertain. Models indicate a wind shift late Thursday night with the main blast pushing through the area Friday morning. Friday's max temperature may occur Friday morning. Most of S TX will have a 10-25% chance of showers, but there is a higher chance up to 50% along the Rio Grande. The highest chance will be over the gulf waters where the deepest moisture will reside. At this time, it looks like mainly showers with a few thunderstorms possible. Friday is expected to be windy as high pressure builds across S TX behind the cold front. A Wind Advisory may be needed, at least closer to the coast. The strongest winds will be across the bays and coastal waters with gale conditions expected Friday afternoon through early Saturday afternoon. Winds begin to relax Saturday afternoon and evening. Another concern will be coastal flooding. The strong north to northeast winds across the gulf waters in the wake of the cold front will likely lead to minor coastal flooding. Seas are forecast to build to 8-13 feet, possibly up to 14 feet. Swell periods are forecast to increase to 8-9 seconds. The combination will be conducive for pushing water up to the dunes during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be needed by Friday night through Saturday, and maybe into Sunday. However, if the winds and seas are slightly higher than expected, a Coastal Flood Warning may be warranted with water up to 3 feet above MSL during high tide. At this time confidence is very low that we will see tides that high. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR CIGS remain in place west, with more scattered conditions east. ALI still has potential for MVFR for the next couple of hours. VFR conditions are then expected through the remainder of the period with moderate winds. Late in the period winds will weaken and become variable ahead of an approaching front. The front may reach COT before the end of this period, but the strongest winds come after the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A moderate (BF 4) southeast flow is expected today along with relatively low rain chances. A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal waters Friday, shifting winds to the north-northeast andincreasing to near gale (BF 7) with frequent gusts to gale (BF 8) by late Friday afternoon and continuing through early Saturday afternoon. A Gale Watch is in effect Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Winds will relax from nearshore to offshore through Saturday afternoon, becoming a moderate northeast breeze by Sunday. Rain chances increase 30-70% ahead of the cold front then diminish in the wake of the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated today. However, a strong cold front Friday morning will bring a strong north to northeast wind and drier conditions to South Texas through Friday afternoon. There may be a brief window Friday afternoon when RH values drop to critical levels while winds are still strong, leading to elevated or critical fire weather conditions, which may warrant a Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning, but confidence is low that this will occur. RH values begin to increase early Friday evening decreasing the threat. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend along with winds becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 72 82 58 / 10 10 20 0 Victoria 92 68 80 54 / 10 10 20 0 Laredo 95 71 82 58 / 0 0 40 0 Alice 92 70 82 56 / 0 10 20 0 Rockport 89 73 84 59 / 20 10 10 0 Cotulla 95 69 79 55 / 0 30 20 0 Kingsville 90 70 83 57 / 10 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 87 76 82 61 / 10 10 20 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...PH/83  031 FXUS65 KVEF 151107 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 407 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty north-northwesterly winds expected this afternoon through Friday with gusts 40 to 50 mph across portions of the region. * Precipitation chances return to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...Through Thursday. Satellite imagery early this morning showed a broad upper level trough draped across the Rockies. Meanwhile to the northwest, a shortwave was digging south on the backside of this main trough. These two pieces of energy are expected to interact to bring gusty north to northeast winds to the region today through Friday. No significant changes to previous forecast thinking. Widespread gusts over 40 MPH are likely over Death Valley, southeast California, and western Arizona as a 60-70KT jet sets up across the region. Continuing to see indications of downslope wind enhancement in valleys next to terrain, including areas like Pahrump and around the Hualapai Mountains. Impacts to valley roadways, including Interstate 40 east of the Hualapai Mountains in southern Mohave County and Highway 160 in Pahrump, due to strong crosswinds are possible. No changes were made to the Wind Advisories as they capture the highest chances for wind impacts as well as the strongest wind timing. Winds will diminish through the day Friday as the trough pulls away, and while wind impacts should end by midday as gusts drop below 40 MPH- continued breezy northeast to east winds gusting 25-35 MPH are expected through the afternoon. This downward trend will continue Friday night and Saturday, with light winds returning to the forecast Sunday onward. After a brief warm up to near normal today and Friday, temperatures drop a few degrees back to slightly below normal levels for the weekend. After dry conditions through at least the weekend, will need to watch how a deep West Coast trough interacts with moisture that may advect into the region from Hurricane Simon. At the moment, moisture does not look to be as high as what we saw with the remnants of Rachel, but what impacts we will see is uncertain as the GFS and ECMWF have very different ideas on IVT plume locations and how they interact with the incoming trough. No major changes to the precipitation forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread 30%- 40% chances that then linger into Thursday, and snow level around 9000ft. Confidence in these details remain low though as this system is far into the forecast period, will continue to monitor as things develop. With the incoming system and the potential for rain, temperatures will cool and remain below normal early next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package... Northerly breezes ramp up throughout the morning, gradually turning more north-northeast by the afternoon. Brief periods of wind direction from 040-060 are possible, if not likely, but on average wind direction in the afternoon and evening should be more 010-030. Gusts of 20-30 knots are likely (70% or more) from 15z through 03z. Afterwards, wind magnitude becomes more uncertain with ~50% chance of 20+ knot gusts overnight. VFR conditions under clear skies. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Gusty north-northeast winds expected across most of the area today, with the exception being our far northwestern locations. Gusts peak in the late morning and afternoon with 20-35 knots likely (70% or more). Winds are expected to remain elevated overnight, but just how elevated is uncertain. If the low levels can stay mixed out, gusts of 20-35 knots will be possible through the night. VFR conditions prevail with clear skies throughout the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nickerson AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  108 FXUS65 KPIH 151108 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 508 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon highs gradually warm over the next several days. - Dry conditions are also expected through the weekend. - Wetter and cooler conditions return for the second half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure is building in over parts of the West today and will move directly over our area on Friday. This means we can expect dry conditions for the next several days and a warming trend is underway. While temperatures will start in the low to mid 30s for most this morning, we warm into the upper 50s and low 60s this afternoon. Highs warm a few more degrees for Friday and Saturday afternoons and Saturday looks the be the warmest day for most with highs in the low to mid 60s. This warm up has backed off a little bit from what it looked like the last few days where now, there's only about a 25 percent chance that areas around Burley reach 70 degrees for the high on Saturday. During the first half of next week, an upper level low drops southward along the West Coast. Now, the ECMWF and GFS have very different solutions on where exactly this low will track and how quickly it will move. However, it does seem like we will see increasing precipitation chances in the second half of next week thanks to this system along with some cooler temperatures meaning highs back in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 508 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout tOday and the next several days thanks to high pressure building in over the area. Winds remain light and variable. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will be in control of our forecast for the rest of this week and through the weekend. Highs will continue to gradually warm with most returning to the mid 60s by Saturday afternoon. Dry conditions across the area mean min RHs drop to 15-25 percent in the Central Mountains on Friday, which looks to be the driest day of the next several. It's not until next week that we see highs drop back into the 50s and precipitation chances return to the forecast. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMM AVIATION...AMM FIRE WEATHER...AMM  726 FXUS63 KLMK 151115 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 715 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for most of the area with visibilities as low as 1/4 mile this morning. * Chance for severe weather has lessened somewhat, with the sole threat being strong to severe gusty winds. * Highs are warm across the south in the mid to upper 80s one last day before Friday. * Cool down and breezy winds arrive Friday, with a chance for frost in the Bluegrass overnight this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 =====Foggy, With Spotty Showers and Storms This Afternoon===== A game of cat and mouse is ongoing between departing clouds to the east, and approaching low to mid level clouds from the west. In areas that have seen a few hours of clearing, dense fog is forming. Timing and forecasting how thick the fog settles in is tricky because fog is hard to form with any cloud cover. Be that as it may. a Dense Fog Advisory will likely be issued very shortly to account for the observed dense fog in some areas that aren't in the typical valley locations, favored in areas from near Bowling Green towards Lexington and places NW from there, including the Louisville Metro. Though fog may not be quite as prevalent as a few nights ago, it will nonetheless cause concern for drivers in the morning. Beyond fog, winds are light as a cold front has nearly bisected our CWA. Nearly calm winds are present across the CWA, with generally southerly flow south of an east-to-west line from just north of Lake Cumberland to just north of BWG. Spotty showers are beginning to bubble up and move into our western CWA as well. Spotty showers can't be ruled out for the rest of the morning. This signifies the return to SW flow later this morning and afternoon as a warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley today. Warm minimum temperature records may be broken later this morning considering how saturated we are (I'd imagine the whole CWA only has the chance to cool by another degree or two). Eventually, as the warm front lifts through our area, it will slowly raise cloud ceilings, scour out fog, and generally push lower PoPs to our north. SW flow may be enhanced due to the close presence of a developing low moving towards the Great Lakes region. When the warm front associated with this low passes to the north, there may be enough instability for storms to fire as it passes sometime after 12 Noon EDT. For now, since moisture is so high, at least in the lower levels, clouds will be rather slow to clear for pure sunshine before storms fire. In between clouds though, enough instability could present strong to severe wind gusts. The best wind shear will avoid us to the NW, and as a result, the tornado threat will likely completely miss our area. Highs with this enhanced SW flow behind the front will be quick to warm though despite the morning cloud cover. There is still a question of how much cloud cover will stick around this afternoon but for now, high temperatures should be warmest in the south (south of I-64) in the mid to upper 80s. North of the interstate, clouds and rain will take the longest to clear with highs in the lower 80s to upper 70s. It should be said that despite the chance for severe weather, rainfall coverage will be scattered at best and move fairly progressively with the strong SW flow. Additional rainfall totals have a 75% of remaining under 0.5", with an extremely isolated risk of up to 2" of rain should a heavy downpour or two track over the same areas this afternoon. We are not expecting any flash flooding concerns today as the best severe risk and flooding risk remain too far north. =====Strong Incoming Cold Front and Seasonable Warmth Next Week===== SW flow will intensify as the impending cold behind the departing Great Lakes low gets closer and sweeps through early Friday morning. Winds will increase by early morning and grow stronger throughout the day. Temperatures will fall into the 60s for highs and cooling throughout the afternoon after frontal passage with wind gusts of 25- 35 MPH. Saturday, lows are chilly in the morning as temperatures really struggle to reach the upper 50s. There is increasing confidence in widespread frost Saturday night with clear skies and lows forecast in the mid to low 30s. We will likely issue products related to this when the time comes. Beyond Saturday, high temperatures very very slowly moderate as highs Sunday reach the mid 60s. Isolated frost may be possible, although the positioning of a high pressure may allow weak southerly flow to moderate us just enough to stay out of frost territory. Long range trend is dry, really through the rest of the week. Temperatures look to remain near normal eventually settling into the low 70s by midweek next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 715 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Fog and low lying stratus behind near a cold front that has settled across the area. LIFR-low end MVFR are existing now with the highest ceilings at BWG. Throughout the morning, showers will move eastwards out of southern KY. Ceilings slowly raise through the morning and afternoon hours with partial clearing for BWG by the afternoon. PROB30s have been included for showers this afternoon and a PROB30 for -TSRA at HNB was included. Winds will shift out of the SW across all airports this morning and afternoon hours along with improved ceilings. VFR returns for all terminals this afternoon and evening which will continue into the overnight on Friday. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-053-054-061>065-070>074-076. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ DISCUSSION...BKF AVIATION...BKF  644 FXUS64 KLCH 151113 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 613 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather danger Friday and Saturday with anomalously dry and windy conditions each day. Red Flag Watch on Friday; another Saturday. - Record to near record heat is forecast across central and south central Louisiana again today. - High winds Friday and Saturday will result in Wind Advisories as well as hazardous sea conditions. Gale conditions possible late Saturday. - Low Water possible for southeast Texas Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Southerly winds developing ahead of the late-week frontal system has allowed Gulf moisture to seep inland beneath a deeply dry airmass. The combination of high pressure overtop the region and dry airmass aloft has given this sfc layer the conditions needed to efficiently cool and so radiational fog is beginning to develop. Already some of our obs are seeing patches of dense fog. The coastal breeze has kept visibilities at bay along and south of I10 but as we move towards early morning and winds diminish to calm, it's likely that we'll see a sudden onset of at least widespread patches of dense fog. Thus, a dense fog advisory has been issued for interior southwest Louisiana until 9 AM. Not much to discuss for Thursday's forecast... High pressure diminishing with breezy southerlies off the Gulf bringing about increasing sfc humidity. Highs in the upper 80s, low 90s. Perhaps a shower may squeak out this afternoon or evening with falling heights and in the moist layer. Not expected but possible for areas west of LA 171. Now for the fun part of the forecast. Things get kicked off Thursday with upper jet max strengthening over the eastern Rockies. This jet feature kicks aforementioned sfc low sitting over north TX into the upper midwest. This enhancement to the polar jet then pulls an upper low out of south Canada. Ultimately these two features phasing is what will cause such a sharp frontal intrusion on Friday. A cold front then crashes southward on Friday. Prefrontal winds Friday AM will establish a north vector and by 9 AM, inland areas will already see winds 15 to 20 MPH with higher gusts. These winds will spread southeast rapidly, reaching coastal communities before lunch. Winds will only increase thru the afternoon and will remain elevated through Saturday evening. Peak speeds of 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH are expected Friday and Saturday afternoons. There may be a slightly lower wind overnight into Saturday but it won't be much lower. Wind advisories will be needed and may come as early as Friday morning to cover the period. The strong north winds will usher colder and drier conditions and minimum RH values 20 to 35 can be expected Friday and Saturday. Combined with the strong winds, fire conditions will be very elevated. A fire weather watch is in effect for Friday; another needed Saturday. It is imperative not to burn anytime before or during this period as winds will easily re-light coals. Abide by local burn bans and if you see a fire/smoke, report it to local authorities. High temps will warm into the 80s ahead of the front and will struggle to reach the low 70s Saturday. Expect the 50s by Saturday morning and 40s Sunday morning. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Across the south LA terminals, VIS/CIGS will continue to bounce through the next couple of hours as areas of patchy fog move across the region. After fog burns off, VFR CIGS/VIS and light SE winds prevail into the evening hours. Another round of patchy fog will be possible after midnight at the south LA terminals once again, while fog potential at BPT/AEX looks minimal. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Breezy onshore winds will persist into late Thursday. A crashing cold front will near the region after midnight Friday. Its influence will turn coastal winds to the north prior to sunrise, before the much stronger winds arrive starting mid morning. Northerly winds will only increase throughout Friday with a peak intensity between Friday evening and Saturday morning. A brief period of conditions hazardous to small craft will occur from Friday morning until early afternoon. Thereafter, Gale-force conditions are expected to develop during overnight hours. Frequent gusts 40 to 45 knots will be possible with seas growing to 4 to 11 feet through midday Saturday. Low Water conditions will be possible at Sabine Pass Friday at low tide time. All other waterways appear to be oriented as to not see mass pushout. Continue to monitor. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas of patchy to dense fog will be ongoing at sunrise Thursday morning. After sunrise, somewhat breezy southerly winds will establish ahead of a developing frontal system in the Plains. RH minimums will range 30 to 50 percent during afternoon hours with 20 ft winds 5 to 8 knots. The frontal system then crashes through the region on Friday bringing about a roughly 48 hour period of elevated fire concerns. Northerly winds at sunrise will see a rapid increase in speeds from 7 AM Friday with interior regions seeing 15 MPH sustained by 9 AM and coastal areas by roughly 12PM. Winds peak and will remain elevated from Friday mid day through Saturday evening. Strong north winds will also bring about RH minimums 25 to 35 percent Friday and 20 to 30 percent Saturday. A fire weather watch is in effect Friday for low humidity combined and high winds. Another watch will be needed Saturday. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ027>033- 044-045-055-141>143-152>154-241>243-253-254. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143. TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for TXZ180-201-259>262. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11 AVIATION...17  774 FXUS63 KDLH 151117 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 617 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain enters from the west this morning and spreads east through the day. NW WI will see the majority of the rainfall. No storms expected with the passing system. - Gusty and dry conditions return on Friday and Saturday and may prompt fire weather concerns, especially on Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Synoptic set remains consistent with the discussion below. Overall, expecting showers to enter from the west this morning and spread east through the day. Minor shift in the low pressure going slightly further north has increased QPF for NW WI with the Gogebic Range now expecting greater than 0.50" The NBM seems to be struggling with temperatures under our cloudy regime. Max temperatures are too warm and overnight lows are too cold. Small adjustments were made, except for Friday morning where the NBM is 5-6F too cold. Leaned into the higher model consensus which keeps much of the region above freezing Friday morning. Precipitation will be exiting Friday morning and will largely be in the form of rain. Far northern MN could see a few snowflakes mix in but not expecting any impacts. The only other overhaul was to the Min RHs for Saturday. Model soundings remain very dry and with the abundance of sunshine expected Min RHs will likely fall to 25-30%. Increasing winds into the afternoon may prompt fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, lingering stratus clouds will slowly scatter across the Northland, leaving behind calm and quiet conditions. Cloud cover will increase again tonight across the area. Opted to increase low temperatures for tonight compared to guidance due to higher cloud cover limiting heat release overnight, with readings staying in the lower to mid 30s rather than dipping into the 20s. An upper-level cutoff low over the Four Corners will phase into an incoming trough from the Canadian Prairies on Thursday, leading to a surface low moving across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. Rainfall will develop along a frontogenesis band Thursday morning and spread across the area through the afternoon. Rain chances will be highest across northwest Wisconsin, where a tenth to a quarter inch of rain is expected. Low temperatures in the mid 30s are also anticipated for tomorrow night due to higher cloud cover. A large trough will bring rain chances and cool air close behind for the late week. Precipitation along and wrap around precipitation behind the front will keep rain chances going for Thursday night into Friday morning. There is no snow currently in the latest forecast for early Friday morning, but a few flakes falling with light rain is still possible across the Arrowhead and south shore. Strong northwest winds will surge behind the boundary late Thursday night into Friday, gusting 25 to 35 mph across the Northland, with gusts up to 45 mph near Lake Superior before diminishing Friday afternoon. High pressure builds across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, setting the stage for very dry air to overspread the region. Forecasters are still looking at relative humidity as low as 25 percent for Saturday. Winds are expected to increase in the afternoon, but timing will depend on the speed of a warm front moving through. The combination of gusty southwest winds reaching 20 to 30 mph and the dry air mass could lead to near-critical to critical fire weather conditions on Saturday. An upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border on Sunday, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with passing clouds. Heading into early next week, upper-level ridging willbecome the predominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This will maintain dry, mostly clear, and mild conditions through Monday and Tuesday. While a couple of weak shortwaves may attempt to bring a stray shower next week, dry weather is favored to dominate. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR to IFR ceilings will likely persist at most terminals through the TAF period. Areas of rain are possible on and off through day, heaviest at KHYR. Strong north winds are expected late Thursday evening and into Friday morning. Some gusts of 35-40knots are possible. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light southeast winds today will gradually turn to out of the southwest as rain enters from the west. Rain will persist through the overnight hours but no storms are expected. Winds will turn to out of the north with the departure of the rain early Friday morning and ramp up rapidly. Widespread gales are expected and a Gale Warning is in effect. Gales will briefly weaken Friday evening, but look to return on Saturday as winds turn to out of the southwest. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No fire weather concerns today. Rain moves in from the west and spreads east through the day. NW WI will see the lion's share of the moisture with totals of 0.25-0.75" expected. Very windy conditions for Friday morning as the system exits, but dry air doesn't look to take hold of the region until Saturday. While winds won't be quite as strong we are still forecasting widespread gusts in excess of 25 mph. Model soundings show an immense amount of dry air aloft, and when paired with an abundance of sunshine we should see those RHs fall to 25-30%. Fire weather headlines may be needed. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. && $$ UPDATE...Britt DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt  788 FXUS63 KDTX 151117 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 717 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers expand into the area late afternoon and linger through early Friday morning. - A strong cold front delivers gusty winds and much chillier conditions Friday, with a scattered showers. Lake effect rain showers develop over the Thumb by evening. - Turning drier through the weekend with slightly warmer readings by Sunday. && .AVIATION... High pressure passing across the northern Great Lakes this morning and afternoon will bring a northeast to east wind shift, which will maintain a thick stratus deck over Ontario into southeast Michigan. MVFR ceilings look to prevail through today as moisture becomes trapped under an inversion while a low pressure system lifts northeast towards Michigan. This will also lead to likely rainfall spreading across all terminals starting this afternoon and carrying into tonight. Inversion lowers tonight bringing a period of IFR ceilings. A brief period of low level wind shear is possible as well as a strong low level jet surges atop the stable near-surface layer, but surface flow is expected to pick up overnight as surface low track across Michigan. D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms before 22Z Thursday, low chance after 22z. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through the TAF period. * Low for thunder after 22Z today. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 DISCUSSION... Influence of high pressure wanes over the course of the morning as it shifts into Quebec. As this occurs, the next weather maker takes shape over the Midwest as southern/northern stream waves phase resulting in developing low pressure near the upper-Mississippi. Associated surface warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley today with the elevated portions of the frontal slope lifting over southern lower MI. Actual activation of the slope however is delayed until late afternoon (~20-21Z) when lead vorticity/theta-e finally reaches the area favoring a greater coverage of moderate showers over the northern half of SE MI (north of M-59) through this evening. Secondary low feature along the occluding front over northern IN/OH remains present in higher res model output resulting in the surface warm front being confined on or just south of the Ohio border. An interesting potential outcome with instability being held south of the area and the main low track trending a touch further north towards the Saginaw Valley, is a corridor within the southern portions of the CWA (ranging somewhere from the M-59 to I- 94 corridors) of notably less shower development due to falling in between the areas of stronger forcing. This is scenario can be seen in the most extreme case in the NAM but a flavor of which is present in the ARW/HRRR. Areawide, general QPF is expected to range between 0.25-0.5" (highest north) though if the outcome above is realized, some locales could see only a tenth or so of rainfall. Low departs into southern Ontario by Friday morning tapering off the majority of activity over SE MI. Parent mid-upper trough slides across lower MI during the day bringing significantly colder air aloft as 500mb temps fall some 20 degrees into the mid -20's C. This ongoing cold advection within the diurnal window steepens lapse rates as passing trough influence supports modest upper divergence. While the bulk of moisture is east of the region by this point, moisture wrapping around the mature low as well as lake flux should result in pretty good coverage (scattered to numerous) convective showers by midday with peak coverage in the afternoon aided by a secondary cold front dropping through the state. This front marks the lead edge of the more robust CAA as 850mb temps fall from roughly +6C to -3C by evening. Lake surface temps currently hover in the mid teens C so more than enough delta T to spark lake effect rain showers. Winds turn north post-front favoring these bands to work across the Thumb and down into Metro Detroit- particularly the eastern half. For winds Friday, the gradient weakens following the low/initial cold front with lower level column wind within the mixed layer looking to support peak NW gusts up around 25kts (~30mph). This changes with the arrival of the secondary cold front late afternoon- evening, coincident with the passage of the trough axis, leading to a tightening gradient and column wind fields increasing towards 30- 35kts. Forecast soundings are favorable for sufficient mixing depths through the evening to tap into this flow to push peak N gusts to 35mph with 40mph likely along the Lake Huron shoreline. Gusty winds and lake effect wind down Friday night as surface high pressure over the Midwest beings to expand into the central Great Lakes. Overnight lows bottom out in the lower 30s with sub-freezing temperatures expected in areas north of I-69 though areas on the glacial moraine could also see temps drop below 32F. Below normal temperatures in place for Saturday as continuing north wind leads to highs struggling to reach the mid 50s. Surface ridge axis eventually crosses Saturday night as central CONUS upper ridging expands overhead setting up southerly, warmer return flow for the new week. Ridging influence holds through at least the first half of the week, if not longer, maintaining an extended period of dry weather and above normal temperatures with highs in the mid 60s. MARINE... High pressure migrates from the northern Great Lakes into New England today, causing easterly wind to veer southeast. The gradient strengthens with time as low pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley tracks northeast and into the central Great Lakes this evening. Showers expand in coverage from late afternoon into this evening and a few thunderstorms will be possible mainly near western Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair. As the deepening low center passes over lower MI overnight, a 45 to 55 kt southwesterly low-level jet will pass overhead near western Lake Erie. While profiles show strong low-level stability during this period which will hold most of the momentum aloft, potential exists for gusts to around 30 kt after midnight. A strong cold front will pass north to south across the region on Friday as the low departs to the east. Increasing instability and favorable fetch offer relatively high confidence to see northerly gusts to 35 to 40 knot gales on Lake Huron Friday afternoon and Friday night. A Gale Warning is in effect for all of Lake Huron. Will monitor the need to expand the warning into Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie, but confidence remains too low at this time. Gusty northwest wind backs to west-southwest by Saturday as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ361>363- 421-422-441>443-462>464. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...KDK MARINE.......TF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  782 FXUS63 KGLD 151117 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 517 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers ending this morning to early afternoon. - Windy this afternoon with gusts up to 55 mph in northeast Colorado and 30-50 mph elsewhere. Some patchy blowing dust possible in Colorado. - Frost and light freeze possible tonight, then a light freeze likely Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1215 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Scattered showers will continue to move east overnight and this morning ahead of the upper trough axis. Secondary band to the northwest associated with the sheared out remnants of the upper low may survive as far south as Yuma County before weakening this afternoon with a few light showers. Otherwise, main concern today will be the potential for windy conditions, primarily in northeast Colorado. Mid to late afternoon clearing may be enough to mix down stronger winds to the surface on the backside of the upper trough. NBM probabilities continue at 50-60% in a fairly small area of western Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties for gusts of greater than 55 mph after 18z through about 22z. Some patchy blowing dust may also develop with favorable mixing heights, but with the recent rainfall confidence is on the low side given the moist top soils. Gusts outside of northeast Colorado should max out in the 30-50 mph range. Winds take some time to diminish tonight with gusts of 20-40 mph well into Friday morning before a noticeable decline. This may inhibit temperatures from falling despite clearing skies. NBM probabilities for 32 or colder are running around 40-50% near the Kansas and Colorado border to up to 70-90% along Highway 59 and northern Yuma County, where there is also around a 40% chance for a hard freeze of 28 or lower. Elsewhere, a frost is more likely. Upper ridge will build in from the west on Friday and Saturday resulting in dry conditions. Friday will see light winds by the afternoon with temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds shift around to the southwest and increase late Friday night, gusting 20-30 mph by Saturday morning in Colorado and west of Highway 25. This may once again inhibit temperatures from falling despite the clear skies. Nonetheless, probabilities are running quite high for a light freeze in the entire area, near 100%, with a wide range of probabilities for a hard freeze, favoring low spots in Colorado and along the Republican River. The south to southwest winds continue to increase through the day on Saturday, with gusts of 30-40 mph common by the afternoon, highest in Colorado. Afternoon relative humidity is forecast to drop to 15% or lower from Yuma County southwest into western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties, which combined with the gusty winds will result in near critical to critical fire weather conditions. This may extend into the adjacent counties of Kansas and Nebraska for a few hours as well. High temperatures in those areas will reach the 70s with downslope warming, with 60s expected elsewhere with a more southerly wind component. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Southwest flow aloft via longwave ridge is anticipated on Sunday to kick off this forecast period. Said ridge, centered over the western Great Lakes region, should propagate fairly quickly to the east over the course of the day Monday. Upper-level winds become zonal through Monday. Guidance currently projects a second ridge to develop on Tuesday across the the Plains region, settling the flow pattern backto southwesterly through the middle of next week. This, all ahead of an upper-level low that is expected to move across the SW CONUS through Wednesday. Guidance does outline a brief shortwave early Monday which should move out of the County Warning Area (CWA) by the time the evening comes around. Not much is expected to come from this trough passage other that a wind shift. A weak surface low is likely to form over eastern Colorado Sunday, moving into western Kansas Monday. This feature also should not do much other than pressure changes and wind shifts. Ensemble guidance is beginning to pick up a stronger surface low that may set up near the Tri-State area late Wednesday. Forecast guidance anticipates conditions to be quite dry across the CWA through early Wednesday. 5% or less PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) are favored throughout the region. This may not last though as an upper-level low, mentioned in the above section, paired with low-pressure at the surface could bring the next decent rainfall chances to our region late Wednesday. Guidance is currently not very confident on widespread precipitation, but a general 15-25% PoPs is forecasted at this point in time. Surface analysis/QPF doesn't show much accumulation for our area right now; nonetheless, still worth monitoring as this event draws closer. Moving on to high/low temperatures for the coverage area, a slight warmup is expected across the board as we rebound from well-below average highs. Temps in the low/mid 70s are likely Sunday and Monday, with a slight uptick to mid/upper 70s Tuesday then upper 70s/low 80s possible next Wednesday. With respect to overnight lows, Sunday morning is likely to be the coldest, with temps expected to approach the mid 30s. Lows will then gradually warm up above the mid 30s, with upper 30s/low 40s expected Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue this warming trend with low/mid 40s and then upper 40s/low 50s expected, respectively. As for fire weather concerns, the potential for critical fire conditions will be low, but not zero. Relative humidity (RH) values are likely to reach the mid-teens (14-15%) in our eastern Colorado counties on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface winds over these areas should sit around 15-20 mph from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Going forward, RH values are anticipated as low as the upper teens west of US-385 Monday and Tuesday, but winds should be light and variable; thus, the fire weather outlook likely will be milder post-Sunday. For the rest of the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is to be expected with generally 5-15 mph winds. Winds will initially be from the south Monday, shifting to the north and east with the shortwave, then settling back to more of a southerly direction. Gusts are not likely to exceed 25 mph during this forecast period everywhere east of the Colorado/Kansas state line. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 515 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Widely scattered showers will persist through this morning before ending as the upper disturbance moves out. Low ceilings will take until the afternoon to return to VFR. North to northwest winds will gust 30-40 kts by early this afternoon and continue through about sunset, then gradually diminishing tonight. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. CO...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NEZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...024  768 FXUS65 KFGZ 151116 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 416 AM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry, cool, and windy weather will continue through Friday. Tropical moisture may return this weekend and into next week, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Friday - strong high pressure aloft will develop over the Great Basin while a low forms off the northern Baja coast. The result will be rapidly increasing easterly flow aloft over our region. There will also be tighter easterly surface pressure gradients as a surface high plunges down through the Rockies and plains. Expect northeast to east winds to increase through this period, especially along/west of terrain features. The period of strongest winds currently looks like later tonight through Friday morning, including areas around Flagstaff, Sedona, and the I-17 corridor from Flagstaff down to the Hwy 179 interchange. Gusts in these areas may reach 40-50 mph, with most other areas staying in the 30-40 mph range. Otherwise, expect dry and continued cooler than normal conditions through Friday. Saturday and Sunday - Some moisture should move back into the region from the southeast by the weekend, and a low (10-25%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is included in our latest forecasts. Rain chances may increase as we get closer, depending on the track of the weak upper low as it ejects northeastward late in the weekend and possible interaction with deeper moisture associated with tropical systems far to the south off the coast of Mexico. While most of the ensemble guidance continues to keep the deeper moisture to our east through Sunday, a small percentage (including latest operational EC) bring it farther west, so this will be something to monitor. Daytime highs look to stay below normal through the weekend. Monday through Wednesday - ensemble forecasts show deeper low pressure diving south along the West Coast, settling over or just west of central/southern California by Tuesday or Wednesday. This will bring the potential for deeper moisture from the south to interact with the low over our region, and our rain chances have increased to 30-50% Tue/Wed. Daytime temperatures will remain cooler than average for mid October. && .AVIATION...Thursday 15/12Z through Friday 16/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds gradually increasing through 15Z-18Z and continuing this afternoon and overnight. Expect northeast to east winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts in many areas from late this morning through tonight. OUTLOOK...Friday 16/12Z through Sunday 18/12Z...VFR conditions forecast through the period. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible along and south of the Mogollon Rim Saturday afternoon, then across all of northern Arizona Saturday night. Winds will easterly through the period, initially between 15-25 kts with localized gusts 30-40 kts on Friday, becoming lighter at 10-20 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Cool and windy conditions throughout the period. Winds are northeast through east 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Thursday through Friday, remaining elevated overnight. Strongest winds will be along/downwind of higher terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino Counties and north of the White Mountains. Min RH is 30-60% on Thursday then 20-40% on Friday. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. Saturday through Monday...Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain for each day. Winds are 10-20 mph from the east on Saturday, light and variable on Sunday, then southwest 5-15 mph on Monday. Daytime temperatures remain 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  012 FXUS66 KPQR 151121 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 421 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SYNOPSIS...High pressure and offshore easterly winds will bring dry and unseasonably warm temperatures today and Friday. The strongest easterly winds are expected along the Columbia River Gorge and western slopes of the Cascades. A weak cold front will bring chances for light rain late Friday night into Saturday, before high pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. The next chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday with an approaching low pressure system, although guidance continues to trend drier. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Satellite imagery and surface observations as of early Thursday morning depict mostly clear skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as an upper-level ridge moves overhead. Will likely remain clear through the morning, though there is a low (10-20%) chance that some stratus develops across the Willamette Valley through 8-9 AM. Today and Friday will be the warmest days of the week, with high temperatures forecast in the upper 70s across interior valleys and 60s along the coast. Some locations may even reach 80 degrees, with a 10-30% chance along the I-5 corridor and a 50-70% chance along valleys of the Cascade foothills. Although high temperatures are expected to be around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October, most locations are not expected to break any records (which were mainly set back in 2022). These could be our last "hot" days of the year, as we typically see temperatures drop off during the second half of October. In addition to warm temperatures, will also see increasing offshore easterly winds beginning this morning along the Columbia River Gorge, eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro, Cascades, and Cascade foothills. Model guidance continues to suggest surface pressure gradients tightening to -5 to -6 mb between Troutdale and The Dalles, producing wind gusts up to 25-35 mph, except up to 45-50 mph on wind-prone exposed ridgetops. Pressure gradients slacken later Friday morning with winds easing by the afternoon. Onshore flow returns by late Friday night into early Saturday morning ahead of an incoming weak cold front. -10/DH && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The aforementioned front will quickly swings through on Saturday, returning cooler temperatures and chances for light rain. Bulk of the precipitation is aimed towards British Columbia and far northwest Washington, so the further south you go in northwest Oregon such as Lincoln County or the southern Willamette Valley, the more likely conditions remain completely dry. Chances for rain totals exceeding 0.10 inch from 5 PM Friday to 5 PM Saturday are only 5-15% from Salem to Longview, and 10-30% along the coast from Tillamook northward and the south WA/north OR Cascades. Conditions quickly dry out Saturday night to Sunday as transient shortwave ridge passes through. Expect seasonable temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across interior valleys and 50s along the coast and Cascades. Monday to Tuesday, the majority of ensemble members are in agreement that an upper-level trough from the northeast Pacific will approach the Pacific Northwest, returning chances for rain between early Monday morning and late Monday night. Will note that these chances have gone down significantly, as of 75% of ensemble members are now showing this trough staying further offshore and progressing southward toward California rather than moving completely over the Pacific Northwest. If this scenario occurs, precipitation would be limited in our area. Chances for 24-hour rain totals exceeding 0.25 inch between 5 AM Monday to 5 AM Tuesday have fallen to 15-20% along the coast, Coast Range, and Willapa Hills, and 5-10% along the I-5 corridor. By Wednesday, ensembles have the upper trough swinging into central California, while weak high pressure re-builds over the Pacific Northwest, favoring predominately dry conditions. At the same time, it does appear that another upper-level trough will begin to approach British Columbia and potentially make its way down into the Pacific Northwest late next week, returning chances for precipitation. -10 && .AVIATION...Through 12Z Friday...Satellite imagery and terminal observations as of early Thursday morning depict predominately VFR conditions with clear skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as an upper-level ridge moves over the Pacific Northwest. Expect mostly clear conditions to continue through the morning, though there is a 10-20% chance for some MVFR stratus or lower across the central/southern Willamette Valley at any given hour through 15-16z Fri. There is also some shallow fog around the Portland Metro Area bringing localized VIS drops to 5SM (such as in KHIO) which may continue for the next few hours. Otherwise, sunny skies prevail today. Offshore flow increases this morning as pressure gradients tighten. The strongest winds are expected through the Columbia River Gorge and eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro Area, bringing gusts of 24-26 kt to KTTD, and 21-23 kt to KPDX after 18-21z Fri. Will also see easterly winds along the coast as well, however, those winds generally remain under 10 kt today. For the rest of the central and southern Willamette Valley, expect light northerly to northeasterly winds. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. West/northwesterly winds less than 5 kt through 13-14z Thu, then turning easterly. Easterly winds increase this afternoon with gusts up to 21-23 kt. Winds gradually weaken after 04-06z Fri. -10 && .MARINE...Benign marine conditions continue. A thermal trough along the coast will bring light, east/northeasterly winds through this morning. Later this afternoon, the thermal trough will break down, returning northerly to northwesterly winds over the waters. A series of fronts passing through the waters will turn winds southerly Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday. Seas remain around 4-7 ft at 10-12 seconds through early Saturday morning. A steeper northwesterly swell arrives this weekend, building seas to 7-9 ft by Saturday evening and 10-12 ft early next week. There is a 5-15% chance for seas exceeding 15 ft on Monday, with the highest chances north of Cape Foulweather and beyond 30-40 NM. Will also note that the long periods from the swells will result in a moderate sneaker wave threat this week. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -10/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  181 FXUS64 KBRO 151125 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A cold front Friday will bring strong winds, cooler temperatures, and coastal hazards Friday and Saturday. - A Gale Watch is in effect for 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday. - Low to moderate rain chances Friday along a passing cold front, with greatest chances (40-50%) along the immediate coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 More warm, dry conditions are expected today as subsidence promotes drier air across deep S TX. This will suppress rain chances and keep heat indices in the 90s to low 100s. A cold front moving through the region Friday will limit Friday highs to the 80s. The forecast has been trending drier given the relatively dry air ahead of the front, with most places expected to see low rain chances (15-35%) Friday and little to no measurable rain. The greatest rain chances (40-50%) are along the immediate coast, with rainfall totals through Sunday of an inch or less expected. Strong northerly winds will develop behind the front, with gusts of 30-35 mph possible by Friday afternoon. A secondary surge of high pressure behind the front will bring potential for stronger winds overnight Friday, with gusts of 45-50+ mph possible. Wind Advisories will likely be needed along the immediate coast late Friday into Saturday, and are possible as far inland as Brooks and Hidalgo counties. There is a 10-20% chance of wind gusts of 55mph or greater east of US-281 during this period. Be sure to secure any decorations or loose objects outdoors before Friday. Much drier air filtering in behind the front may lead to elevated fire weather concerns Friday afternoon and Saturday. The strongest winds should begin diminishing before the driest conditions arrive Saturday afternoon, when RH values could fall to 20-40%. However, strong winds overnight Friday combined with RH values in the 30-40% range could require a Rangeland Fire Discussion for counties along and east of US-281. Strong northerly winds over the Gulf will build seas and increase the risk of life-threatening rip currents, high surf, and coastal flooding along the lower TX coast. Cooler air behind the front will bring highs in the 70s Saturday and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures begin rebounding Sunday with highs in the 80s, gradually climbing into the 90s by midweek. Rain chances may also begin to increase again midweek. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the period. Southeasterly winds are forecast to increase to 10-15 knots this afternoon, before becoming light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Moderate southeasterly flow and moderate seas 3-5 ft will continue today. Winds shift northerly Friday morning as a cold front passes, increasing winds to 20 knots by late morning with gusts of 30-35 knots. Seas increase to 9-12 feet late Friday, with gustier winds 40 kts or greater possible overnight. A Gale Watch is in effect for 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday. There are increased chances (40-70%) of showers and thunderstorms along the front Friday, with low chances in the offshore waters lingering into Saturday. Gale conditions should lessen Saturday afternoon, with Advisory conditions lasting into Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 90 74 88 63 / 10 10 30 0 HARLINGEN 93 71 89 59 / 0 10 20 0 MCALLEN 96 75 90 61 / 0 0 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 95 72 88 59 / 0 020 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 78 84 67 / 0 10 50 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 74 85 62 / 0 10 40 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...69 LONG TERM....69 AVIATION...60-BE  099 FXUS64 KLUB 151124 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 622 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Periods of heavy rain and flash flooding remain possible overnight over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle. - Blustery north winds and cooler temperatures arrive Thursday and continue through Friday. - The first freeze of the season is possible for areas on the Caprock early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Current upper air analysis as of late Wednesday evening highlights a closed upper low positioned over central CO, with the shortwave disturbance responsible for earlier convection exiting to our northeast. Southwest flow aloft will persist over our area through the near term, and a secondary disturbance is visible on water vapor imagery near MAF at 03z which will lift northward towards our forecast area through the rest of tonight. The surface airmass remains cool and very humid, with southeasterly surface flow still in place ahead of a cold front still up in the northern TX Panhandle. Current expectation is for a lull in precip to continue through late this evening, with another round of mainly elevated storms developing near or after midnight as the aforementioned mid/upper level disturbance arrives and the SSW low level jet strengthens. Confidence is low in just how widespread this overnight storm activity will be, but the highest coverage is expected to be off the Caprock. These overnight storms are also expected to remain mostly sub-severe, although plentiful elevated instability may support a couple of instances of large hail. Of greater concern is the threat for additional flash flooding, especially over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle where a widespread 2 to 5 inches of rain fell earlier Wednesday. Have opted to extend the Flood Watch to remain in effect through Thursday morning for areas off the Caprock, given the saturated soils and risk of high rain rates and additional training storms overnight. PWATs remain exceptionally high for this time of year, so additional swaths of 1 to 2 inches of rain are certainly possible tonight off the Caprock if convection becomes widespread. A few heavy showers or storms are also possible along and west of I-27 overnight, but these should be less widespread. The cold front will make steady southward progress through Thursday morning, and is progged to be through most of the forecast area by mid-morning. The frontal passage should generally bring a gradual end to any lingering showers over much of the region, but we do expect scattered storms to continue along and ahead of the front itself through early afternoon. This could bring additional heavy rain to the southern Rolling Plains before precipitation finally ends by early evening. Otherwise, post-frontal north winds will be on the blustery side through much of the day, with much cooler temperatures expected as highs only reach into the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 As the cold front sweeps out of the area Thursday night taking rain chances with it, crisp autumn weather takes over on blustery north winds and much drier air. Low stratus initially in the post-frontal layer will scour out on Friday, but skies will be partly to mostly cloudy under a stubborn plume of high clouds. Even without the high clouds, high temps look capped in the 50s which sets the stage for a chilly night as the high clouds clear and north winds go calm. Latest MOS and NBM probs are trending colder everywhere with a light freeze not out of the question for much of the Caprock, which is 1-2 weeks ahead of schedule for many locales. High temps remain below normal through the weekend under weak upper ridging before slowly recovering next week ahead of the next slow-moving upper low that is favored to direct another plume of subtropical moisture our way. Rain chances gear up by mid week and continue thereafter with near normal temps. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 LIFR/IFR CIGs along with showers and thunderstorms are possible over the next few hours. CIGs will gradually improve into the afternoon, with breezy northerly winds developing. Gusts up to 30 kts are possible at all sites. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until noon CDT today for TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038- 043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...19  182 FXUS64 KMOB 151125 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Record or near record highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected Thursday with mid to upper 80s for Friday. With many areas still without power and recovery efforts from Hurricane Isaias ongoing, these temperatures could lead to an increased risk for heat related illnesses. - Strong northerly winds develop over the marine area Friday night, becoming easterly and lasting into the weekend. Gale force wind gusts are possible, with conditions posing a hazard to small craft. - A High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows a few isolated areas of patchy fog along the coast. Surface observations in these areas have been reporting fluctuations in visibilities that suggest fog is rather shallow. Given the sporadic nature, have held off on a Dense Fog Advisory, and any lingering fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were necessary. /73 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 There is the potential for patchy fog development across much of the area overnight, and it's possible that dense fog will develop across portions of southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama. Will continue to monitor at this point. A large upper trof progresses across the eastern states late in the week, with an associated surface low bringing a cold front through the forecast area Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Some isolated showers will be possible near the coast of the western Florida panhandle on Friday, but otherwise dry conditions are expected through Tuesday. Record or near record temperatures continue for Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, then highs on Friday will be moderated slightly with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s. Lows Thursday night range from the lower 60s inland to the mid/upper 60s closer to the coast. Here's the current forecast for highs on Thursday along with the record values: Mobile 89, Record 89 Pensacola 88, Record 89 Much cooler air flows into the area in the wake of the cold front. Highs on Saturday range from the upper 60s well inland to the lower 70s elsewhere, and highs on Sunday will be similar. Lows Saturday night and Sunday night range from the upper 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. A gradual warming trend follows for early next week, with highs on Tuesday reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s, and lows Tuesday night will range from the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Friday then trends to a high risk for Saturday night through Monday. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Patchy, and at times dense, fog has been observed along the coast and will impact the terminals through 14Z. LIFR to IFR visibilites will likely persist at KJKA, while MVFR visibilities are expected elsewhere. Fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise with VFR conditions returning through the reminder of the forecast period. /73 && .MARINE... Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2026 A light, diurnally variable, the rest of the week becomes a strong to very strong easterly Friday night behind a cold front moving across the forecast area Friday. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong, especially over open Gulf waters. /16&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 89 65 86 55 / 0 0 10 0 Pensacola 88 68 84 58 / 0 0 10 0 Destin 85 69 82 59 / 0 0 20 10 Evergreen 90 61 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 90 62 88 50 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 89 62 86 50 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 89 63 86 56 / 0 0 10 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  167 FXUS65 KTFX 151125 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 525 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... -Today it will be slightly cooler than yesterday with temperatures warming up to well above seasonal averages on Friday and Saturday -It will be windy across North-central Montana on Saturday. -It will be dry through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 205 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Today an upper-level trough briefly moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Today temperatures across North- central Montana will cool down slightly compared to yesterday. It will be dry today. On Friday an upper-level ridge moves over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This brings warm temperatures and dry weather to the area on Friday. On Friday temperatures will be well above seasonal averages. On Saturday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and dry temperatures to the area on Saturday. On Saturday the low-level and mid-level winds increase combined with the upper-level ridge flattening. This will bring windy conditions to North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. On Sunday there will be zonal flow (west-east) over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures with mostly dry weather. On Monday an upper-level ridge briefly builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up slightly with mostly dry weather. Tuesday through Wednesday there will be persistent troughing around Montana which will bring cooler temperatures and some precipitation to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: On Saturday there is a 50 - 70% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the plains west of I-15. On Saturday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 50 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 70 mph or greater. Along the higher peaks of the Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 70% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater. Additionally the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) has a standardized anomaly of 3 for 700 mb wind Saturday afternoon across the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. Models continue to show in excess of 60 to 70 kt 700 mb winds over the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15 Saturday afternoon and evening. As a result a High Wind Watch has been issued for the plains west of I-15 and the Rocky Mountain Front from 9AM Saturday through 12AM Sunday. On Saturday across the rest of North-central Montana there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater. For winds across the Hi-Line east of I-15 there is currently a low chance to reach and/or exceed high wind criteria but if the strong 700 mb winds move east faster than models are currently depicting a High Wind Watch could be needed for the Hi- Line east of I-15. -IG && .AVIATION... 15/12Z TAF Period Low to mid-level cloudiness will continue through mid-morning behind a cold front before diminishing by early afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds over portions of the plains will slowly diminish through the day, yielding light and variable winds by sunset for most areas. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 48 34 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 45 26 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 44 28 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 41 24 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 47 18 57 19 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 41 26 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 48 23 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 43 28 68 44 / 0 0 00 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  255 FXUS62 KMFL 151126 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 726 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 723 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Scattered showers and storms today will focus mainly across Southwest Florida this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered activity expected for Southeast Florida mainly late morning through midday. - Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast across the region for the end of this week with maximum heat index values in the 100-105F range. - The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a forecast of windy and wet conditions for South Florida. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For the end of this week, surface high pressure will be set up over the western Atlantic to end the week along with a mid-level ridge propagating from the southeastern US to the offshore western Atlantic waters. This will occur in tandem with a synoptic scale trough amplifying across the central US. As a result of the mid- level high shifting further east, low-level and mid-level flow will shift southerly/southeasterly and usher in deeper tropical moisture (PWATs around 1.8-2 inches or slightly more) and provide ample moisture for the production of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. With the surface high pressure over the western Atlantic setting up an easterly wind regime across the area, the most widespread showers and storms should focus across SW Florida as the Gulf breeze gets pinned, while some isolated to scattered showers and storms form over the east coast metro areas mainly between late morning and midday. Some storms may contain stronger wind gusts and periods of heavy rainfall, but overall parameters are lacking in terms of strong convection potential as well as low flooding risk. However, an isolated occurrence of poor drainage urban flooding cannot be entirely ruled out. Flow will shift a little more southeasterly on Friday as the trough over the central US begins to advect towards the northeast US and pushes the ridge over the Southeast offshore. This southerly flow pattern will support ongoing deep moisture advection, and with low level out of a SE/ESE direction, the focus for showers and storms on Friday will be across both interior and SW Florida, and perhaps stretching into Palm Beach county with PoPs in these areas in the 70- 85% range. Flow will be a bit weaker on Friday compared to Thursday, so there will be a higher risk for flooding impacts on Friday. High temperatures for the end of this week will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Elevated moisture will keep dew points and corresponding heat index values elevated in the 100-105F range as well, posing moderate to major HeatRisk across the region as we typically don't see this level of heat this late in the season. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moving into the weekend, the speed of a propagating frontal boundary off of the trough that is swinging across the central and eastern US will be a big player in the amount of rainfall that we may see over the weekend. Ensembles plus much of the deterministic guidance are generally coming together at this point with the front pushing into central and perhaps the northernmost portions of the South Florida forecast area Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday. The steadiest rain would be expected directly ahead of the front, leading to the most widespread rainfall likely to occur on Saturday before the front pushes out the deeper moisture from portions of the region. Potential rainfall amounts are still heavily uncertain, but the latest90th percentile 24-hour QPF is between 2-4" for Saturday and lower for Sunday, suggesting that even in a worst case scenario we may only need to be concerned for localized flooding. Nevertheless, we still need another day or two to get a more accurate perception of how much rain is possible in different time spans this weekend. Following the front stalling out late this weekend and into early next week, there is better agreement across the ensemble guidance that a steep pressure gradient will set up over the entire state of Florida, bringing with it a jump in easterly winds. The exact timing of the onset of winds here will be tied to the speed and direction of the high pressure system building behind the front which is not completely resolved yet, but less widespread rain is expected as we move into next week and extending into the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 723 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Brief bouts of MVFR/IFR conditions could be possible later this afternoon as SHRA/TSRA develops. Easterly flow will prevail, becoming breezy at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gentle to moderate easterly winds are expected across the local waters for the end of this week. Winds will shift to the north/north- northeast and become strong over the weekend as frontal boundary approaches from the north. This will coincide with some northeasterly swell arriving. Seas to end the week will be generally in the 2-3 feet range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible each day as well, which can result in locally hazardous winds and elevated seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 79 90 77 / 20 30 50 30 West Kendall 90 78 90 77 / 20 20 50 20 Opa-Locka 90 79 90 77 / 20 30 50 30 Homestead 90 79 90 77 / 10 20 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 88 79 88 77 / 40 40 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 89 79 89 77 / 50 50 60 40 Pembroke Pines 89 78 90 77 / 30 30 60 30 West Palm Beach 88 78 89 76 / 60 50 80 40 Boca Raton 88 78 88 77 / 60 50 70 50 Naples 91 75 89 76 / 60 30 50 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...ATV  274 FXUS63 KLOT 151127 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 627 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A fall storm system will move through the area today and Friday bringing periods of rain showers and gusty northwesterly winds (the latter primarily on Friday). - Frosty and near-freezing conditions are favored away from Lake Michigan Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday night. - After the brief period of chilly weather, there will be a warming trend this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Though Tonight: Per recent GOES-19 water vapor imagery, an upper-level trough is lifting northeastward across the Rocky Mountains toward the central Plains ahead of a vigorous northern-stream trough digging southeastward into the Dakotas. Pressure falls on the order of 1 to 2 mb/hr have commenced in central Oklahoma (likely augmented by convection), which will spread northeastward with time as the lead upper-level trough lifts atop a southwest- to northeastward-oriented low-level baroclinic zone stretching into the Great Lakes. Generally speaking, the forecast for the next 24 to 48 hours remains on track with the expectation for the first fall storm of the season to move through the Great Lakes region. As this occurs, a myriad of weather conditions will occur in our local area. After daybreak, showers and areas of drizzle (already developing at press time) will gradually expand across northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana. As our area will be somewhat removed from the strongest forcing (warm conveyer belt focused just south of our area, and increasing frontogenetical forcing focused to our north), am not expecting hefty precipitation totals through the first half of the day. Coverage of showers and drizzle should maximize this afternoon as the surface low moves directly over our area, though again coverage may be more scattered than widespread owing to somewhat disjointed forcing. Nevertheless, seasonably high PWATs (nearing 2 inches) will support torrential downpours where showers are most persistent this afternoon. Am seeing quite a bit of variance in the exact track of the surface low in high-res guidance early this morning, so will hedge toward global guidance (which often does not suffer impacts of convective effects). Such a hedge favors the track of the low passing directly from LaSalle to Chicago this evening while deepening a mb or two per hour. With this in mind, will have to watch for a narrow window for moisture-driven surface- based instability to sneak along and east of I-55 this evening (5 to 9 PM) to support low-topped convection along or just ahead of the synoptic cold front. The overlap of strongly veering low-level wind profiles within the low-centroid and high moisture-driven convective layer does raise concern for low- topped supercell structures, though would have to think they would be harmless given limited opportunity for breaks in cloud cover to steepen low-level lapse rates (effectively limiting the opportunity for truly surface-based convection). In the off chance that the surface low moves even further north than expected AND there is partial sunshine in the narrow warm sector to steepen low-level lapse rates, cannot discount a threat for a brief tornado. At this point, we assess the chance of such an outcome to be very low (less than 5%), a sentiment that is shared by SPC (we did check in with them this morning). So, will continue to withhold mentioning a threat for severe weather today in the HWO and graphical products and allow for observations this afternoon guide adjustments in strategy, if needed. In the immediate wake of the cold front this evening, initial pressure rises on the order of 2 to 3 mb/hr will drive a period of westerly winds gusting 30 to 35 mph. Robust cold air advection will send temperatures falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s overnight with wind chills by daybreak Friday solidly in the low to mid 40s. The overnight period is favored to be dry for most areas, though can envision a few showers continuing near and southeast of I-57 near and just behind the cold front. Friday: On Friday, the northern-stream trough will whip through the Great Lakes anchored by a seasonably cool 500mb temperatures near -25C. A low-level trowel-like structure within the cyclonic shear axis of the trough will support a diurnal flare of showers with peak coverage during the afternoon hours across the area. Pressure rises will actually be greatest during the afternoon (+10mb/6hr) as a 1040mb surface high builds into the plains. As a result, the expectation is for a period of strong north to northwesterly winds Friday afternoon, peaking in the 35 to 40 mph range. Locally higher gusts of 45 to 55 mph cannot be ruled out in the tallest showers. Extensive stratus and continued cold air advection will limit highs to the lower 50s, though would not be surprised if temperatures remain in the upper 40s as hinted by more aggressive deterministic guidance. As the upper-level trough whips overhead, tumbling temperatures atop the warm waters of Lake Michigan will set the stage for the blossoming of lake effect rain showers. With inversion heights progged to climb to nearly 20kft and above the minus 20C level, cannot rule out a few lightning strikes and graupel (soft hail) in the deepest lake effect convective cores. The northerly wind direction will point the stream of lake effect showers into northwestern Indiana during the afternoon, though any mesolows may tend to push showers into Cook County, as well. Wind gusts along the immediate shoreline may also routinely poke above 45 mph (stronger near any mesolows). Will brief the day shift to consider hoisting a Wind Advisory for Lake and Porter counties in northwestern Indiana centered on the Friday afternoon period (typically like to wait until within 24 hours of an event to pull the trigger on a headline). Taken altogether, Friday is shaping up to be a rather raw and chilly day out there. The tree canopy will likely lose a lot of colorful leaves. Friday night into Saturday: The pattern will remain fairly progressive as the surface low pulls away from our area and the surface high pressure system slides toward the middle Mississippi River Valley. Am not convinced winds will crash quickly Friday night owing to a continued pressure gradient in our local area ahead of the approaching surface high pressure system until literally daybreak. Even so, clearing skies (by way of tumbling inversion heights) and continued cold air advection will still push temperatures into the low to mid 30s overnight. The exception will be across northwestern Indiana where lake effect stratus will likely continue through the night. This period continues to be a focus for potential frost/freeze headlines primarily across portions of Illinois. While Saturday will feature full sunshine and weak winds (as the surface high slides directly overhead), the very chilly start to the day will serve as a low starting point for temperatures leading to afternoon highs generally in the 50s. Saturday night will be chilly once again, though the coldest temperatures will favor areas east of I-55 where winds will be weakest along the backside of the surface high. Can envision a need for frost headlines again where temperatures are coldest. Southwesterly return flow will become established by Sunday along the backside of the surface high pressure system marking the start of a warming trend into next week.Borchardt && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - Increasing rain chances this morning with showers expected to persist through this evening. - Ceilings gradually lowering to IFR through the morning. A period of LIFR conditions is expected as the surface low passes overhead late this afternoon through early evening. - Gusty northwest winds developing after midnight with peak gusts around 20-25 kts, but locally higher gusts are possible. A storm system continues to develop in the southern Plains this morning and will be moving into northern IL and northwest IN later today. Ahead of the developing system, widespread showers have developed across IA and MO and these showers will spread into the terminals after 15z (13z at RFD) this morning and persist off and on through this evening. As rain begins, ceilings are expected to gradually lower to IFR around midday with visibilities generally remaining in the MVFR (3-5 mile) range. However, a period of LIFR conditions is expected as the surface low passes directly overhead and leads to the development of some drizzle later this afternoon into the early evening hours. Given that the LIFR conditions should be tied to the core of the surface low (as noted in upstream observations) have opted to handle these conditions with TEMPO groups in the TAFs centered around when the center of the low will be over each terminal. As the surface low departs, the systems cold front will swing through and should allow ceilings to slowly begin to improve though some IFR ceilings may linger until rain fully subsides after midnight. Once the rain tapers, ceilings will rise to MVFR and remain as such through the rest of the TAF period. As for the winds, easterly winds around 10 kts will prevail through the morning before directions turn more south-southeast this afternoon beneath the surface low. In fact, winds may even become light and variable for a short time as the low passes directly over the terminals. Winds will then turn west-southwest behind the low before settling into a northwest direction behind the system's cold front. Speeds will also quickly increase behind the front with gusts peaking in the 20-25 kt range tonight into Friday morning. However, if deeper mixing is achieved there is a chance for some locally higher gusts around 30 kts. Finally, an additional period of scattered showers is forecast for Friday as the upper trough dives through the Great Lakes. Right now it appears that most of these showers should hold off until after the end of the 30-hour TAF so have maintained dry conditions after midnight tonight. That said, a formal mention for these showers will likely be needed in future TAFs. Yack && .MARINE... Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Over the next 24 to 48 hours, the first fall storm system of the season will move through the Great Lakes. As the low lifts from near Kansas City to Chicago today, east-southeasterly winds will increase across southern Lake Michigan leading to waves generally of 3 to 5 feet along the Illinois shoreline. Westerly winds will increase in magnitude after sunset on the immediate backside of the system and behind a cold front with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 kt and a few gale force gusts to 35 kt. Friday afternoon, a secondary cold front will surge down Lake Michigan leading to a change in wind direction to northerly and rapid increase in wind speeds. Sustained winds of 30 to 35 kt with frequent gusts to 40 kt are expected, with locally higher gusts in excess of 45 kt possible on the west side of lake effect rain showers. The strongest wind gusts are expected Friday afternoon and evening before gradually tapering after midnight early Saturday morning. A Gale Warning is in effect from 1 PM to 1 AM Friday night into Saturday morning. Finally, strong lake induced instability may support waterspouts near lake effect showers Friday afternoon and evening. Borchardt && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  230 FXUS63 KLSX 151126 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 626 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the first half of the day, becoming isolated to scattered this afternoon and evening. There is a low potential for isolated damaging winds, and lower potential for a brief, week tornado. - A strong cold front brings much cooler and drier conditions Friday through Sunday morning. A gradual warming trend begin Sunday and continues into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Showers and thunderstorms approach the area early this morning out of the southwest and continue advancing northeast over the CWA through early this afternoon. A strong cold front then quickly moves west to east with much cooler air spilling into the area overnight into Friday. The area being monitored for the next round of showers and thunderstorms is currently over sections of eastern OK. This activity is being driven by a shortwave trough and corresponding surface low in advance of the upper level low over CO. The surface low parallels I-44 on its northeast track with broad scale ascent, lifting the stationary boundary northward through the area through the morning. A broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms accompany the warm front with HRRR/NAMNest indicating a few strong cells in close proximity to the warm front and surface low. HREF ensembles show mean CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg with around 40 knots of shear and backed surface winds near the boundary resulting in curved hodographs. These indicators would normally raise some concern, but in this case, showers and embedded thunderstorms enter the southwest CWA between 10-12z and near the MS River around 15z. RAP model soundings show a capping inversion just below 850mb, CAPE below 500 J/kg, and mid-level lapse rates below 6C. The system and front moves relatively quickly, placing the warm front north of I-70 around 18-19z. The issue then, is to monitor the warm sector over southeast MO and southwest IL, where HREF shows roughly 20-40 percent probabilities for cloud cover of great than 50 percent. This leaves much to be desired with respect to severe potential with low confidence that severe weather will materialize. Instability will have a very short window of 3-4 hours (2-6PM) for recovery at a time of year with lower sun angle and earlier sunset, considering that enough clearing occurs quickly enough. Therefore, while we are messaging the marginal risk, the threat for severe weather looks very low and isolated at best. Damaging winds would be the primary threat. The low tornado potential is also limited in aerial coverage (along and north of I-70 and east of I-55). A strong cold front trails the system and races west to east late this evening and overnight as the system moves into the the Great Lakes and is wrapped into a vigorous northern stream Canadian upper trough. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible along the front as upper ascent evacuates to the northeast. There is not much concern for severe potential along the front itself as much of the atmosphere is work over and we enter the diurnal downward trend. The front should be east of the CWA around or just after midnight with a surface ridging beginning to build in from the northwest. Strong cold air advection drops temperatures overnight with cold air continuing to advect in through the day Friday. The surface high remain departed enough to the west that the upper trough exhibits more influence in terms of moisture. Though we may briefly see partial clearing early Friday, higher RH advects southeastward with the amplified upper trough overhead and surface ridge to the west.Clouds will build back in Friday in conjunction with continuing cold air advection. It is expected to be the coolest day of the fall so far. Highs today will range from the 70s over northern sections of the CWA to the mid-80s over southeast MO and southwest IL. Lows tonight drop into the 40s behind the cold front. Highs Friday will be in the 50s, even struggling reach 60 degrees across far southeast MO. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The fall chill will continue into Saturday before temperatures begin to moderate Sunday into next week. A long stretch of dry weather is expected through much of next week. The amplified trough shifts east of the area Friday night into Saturday with a longwave upper ridge over the western 2/3rds of the CONUS. Northwesterly flow continues aloft as the surface ridge moves southeastward and its orientation varies between RAP/NAM and long range suites. These vary from a slanted ridge axis to a more formidable, consolidated surface high. Though minor, range solutions may be the difference between a decent frost and cold, morning dew on the lawn. The orientation, placement of the ridge, and resulting surface flow suggest that while temperatures will be the coolest of the season, so far, NBM is likely too cool, leaning at or just below the 25th percentile of the IQR. LREF guidance has not only tightened in its IQR range (3-4 degrees), it has consistently shown morning lows in the upper 30s to low-40s with locally cooler temperatures in the well-known microclimates (e.g. Freedom, and Rose Bud, MO). The scenario is slightly different for Sunday as the high positions overhead and winds become light and variable. Sunday looks like the cooler of the two, barring how quickly the high moves east and return flow commences. General speaking, morning lows in the low in the upper 30s to low-40s will represent a large majority of the area. Locally cooler temperatures will support better frost potential with mid-30s. Upper ridging moves eastward and envelops the region Sunday into next week. The pattern look void of any formidable systems and drives the northern stream track into the northern CONUS/southern Canada. Another surface ridges moves west to east near the Canadian border with dry easterly flow through the midweek period. NBM has suggested high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees through the midweek stretch, but has since come down to more reasonable levels (low to mid-70s). Morning lows will follow suit with temperatures doing a daily stair step from the upper 30s/40s early in the week to 50s by Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A warm front will lift northeast over the terminals this morning through early afternoon. The front includes a broken line of heavier showers resulting in vsby restrictions locally as low as 1 3/4SM. Lightning has been limited/isolated due to lower instability this morning though thunder potential increases this afternoon. By that time, the warm front lifts north of the metro terminals to near KUIN. Rain chances lower slightly after the first round of showers move northward along and north of the warm front. This afternoon brings the concern for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with a very short window of opportunity, mainly around metro terminals. The system initially approaches KCOU/KJEF by early afternoon and before instability returns. The system quickly moves northeast, affecting the metro sites in the later half of the day. -TSRA was included in PROB30 groups with some uncertainty in how well instability recovers behind this morning's initial wave. Thunderstorms that develop should move east of the metro terminals this evening. Isolated showersremain possible until the front clears from west to east. Evening SHRA potential was not included at this time given the limited coverage. A mix of MVFR/IFR covers much of the period with gradual improvement overnight, though northwesterly winds are expected to gust on occasion. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Maples LONG TERM...Maples AVIATION...Maples  207 FXUS64 KMAF 151126 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 626 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are expected through Friday across much of west Texas. A few storms may also become severe, posing a threat for mainly damaging winds and large hail this afternoon and evening. - A front tonight/Friday morning brings much cooler temperatures to the region through the weekend. - Tonight/Friday morning's front also brings breezy northeasterly winds to the area. High gap winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 An active weather pattern continues today and an upper level trough translates over the Rockies into the Central Plains. A few showers and storms are ongoing across portions of the eastern Permian Basin, the Lower Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend. Additional showers/storms are expected to develop through day today, as moisture accompanied by rounds of disturbances continue to move over our region within southwesterly flow aloft. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible over much of the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend throughout the day. The best chances for rainfall will be over our easternmost counties. The primary hazard with this next round of activity looks to be heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, especially in areas where soils are already saturated. Aside from rainfall, this storm system sends a cold front across the Plains. The front is progged to start entering our region this afternoon. The combination of rainy conditions, cloudy skies, and the cold front will result in highs in the 70s for most this afternoon, with 80s near and along the river valleys. Later this afternoon and into the evening, winds start to pick up behind the cold front as it surges southward. Breezy northeast winds are expected across much of the region. Strong gap winds are expected within the Guadalupe Mountains this evening and through most of the day Friday. As such, a High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupes from this evening through early Saturday afternoon, for gusts up to 70mph. Aside from elevated winds, cooler and drier conditions filter in behind the cold front. Rain chances taper off from north to south through the evening and overnight hours. A few showers and storms may still linger around the Big Bend region Friday morning before clearing out by the afternoon. Given the best moisture will hover near the Big Bend this evening and tonight, the threat of flash flooding will remain for this part of our region. Behind the cold front, temperatures early Friday morning will fall to the 40s and 50s. The coldest lows are expected within the Davis Mountains, where temperatures look to slip into the mid to upper 30s. Breezy conditions persist through late Friday afternoon, with highs topping out in the 50s to 60s (40s in the higher terrain). && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Heading into Friday night and Saturday morning, upper level ridging takes hold across the Southern Plains. Winds begin to decrease and skies begin to partially clear. Lows settle into the 30s and 40s areawide. A few of the coldest spots in the mountains may reach near freezing, briefly Saturday morning before warming back up into the 50s and 60s. Sunday morning will be about as chilly Saturday morning and that will begin a gradual warmup into the early part of next week. Highs move into the 70s with morning lows in the 50s for Monday and Tuesday. Low (10-20%) rain chances move into the area from the west during that time, but beyond Friday, much of the long term forecast is mainly dry. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR CIGs have moved into the region, but will intermittently impact TAF sites. Front has moved through CNM/HOB/INK and will be through the other terminals over the next few to several hours. Another batch of TS develops late this morning and into the early afternoon and will push southward with the cold front. Further amendments will be necessary based on daytime radar trends. Winds behind the front increase with gusts around 30kts possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 52 60 39 / 90 40 0 0 Carlsbad 81 54 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 81 52 59 43 / 90 100 50 0 Fort Stockton 78 49 58 39 / 60 90 20 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 47 54 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 76 48 59 36 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 74 41 51 34 / 30 80 40 0 Midland Intl Airport 76 52 59 40 / 60 30 0 0 Odessa 75 52 59 40 / 50 30 0 0 Wink 79 54 62 40 / 30 20 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning from 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Flood Watch through Friday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to noon MDT Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93  254 FXUS64 KMEG 151126 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 626 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A strong cold front will pass through the Midsouth Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures through the weekend. - Friday's cold front will bring elevated wildfire danger, particularly to areas along and west of Interstate 55. Strong winds and low relative humidity will moderate by sundown Friday evening. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Today (Thursday) will again bring summer-like high temperatures to the Midsouth, but with lower humidity. Late Wednesday afternoon surface observations showed mid 40s dewpoints over much of central MS around Jackson, while lower to mid 70s dewpoints prevailed over most of the Midsouth. JAN upper sounding from 12Z Wednesday showed an average 925-850mb dewpoint near 0C. This layer won't be quite as dry over the Midsouth today, but we'll nonetheless see surface dewpoints about 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday. The main weather event remains a strong cold frontal passage Friday morning, aided by a deep northern branch longwave trough rotating through the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. 18Z GFS depicted stratospheric vorticity incorporated into this trough, with the dynamic tropospheric pressure level down to 600mb over the Ohio River Valley. Quite a dynamic system and a sign of the changing seasons. As the upper trough lifts off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard Saturday, a progressive upper level ridge will build through the southern and central Great Plains, with weakening northwest flow over the Midsouth. This ridge will expand through much of the southeast US on Sunday, as it deamplifies. The net result for the Midsouth will be diminishing surface winds by Sunday morning, allowing the dry air to cool to the upper 30s and lower 40s toward sunrise. The dry airmass will modify from Sunday onward, with highs reaching normal by Tuesday. Medium range global models depict the upper level ridge amplifying over the latter half of the week, downstream of a closed low moving onshore into southern California. There are some disparity between the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble means with respect to timing of the upstream Pacific low. This timing may be sorted out in the subsequent runs, but for now the overall trend of warmer temps late next week appears to be a good bet. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the day with occasional gusts at MEM, MKL, and JBR. Overnight, a strong cold front will impact the airspace. This boundary should reach JBR by 09Z, bringing a sharp northerly wind shift and MVFR CIGs. These conditions will overspread the airspace by sunrise with winds gusting in excess of 20 kts. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Dry conditions will continue into next week with little to no wetting rainfall. . Relative humidity will drop below 30 percent today, mainly south of Interstate 40. Light winds will prevail areawide this afternoon. A strong cold front will pass through the region Friday morning. Post-frontal relative humidity will drop below 40 percent Friday afternoon, accompanied by strong northwest winds. Despite much cooler temperatures, minimum relative humidity will again drop below 40 percent Saturday afternoon. Winds will not be as quite strong as on Friday, but will gust in the morning and early afternoon. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>051. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...ANS  234 FXUS65 KRIW 151125 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 525 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly clear and cool today, with highs only in the 40s and 50s. Light rain will linger through midmorning for Natrona County, before clearing by noon. - Clear and cold tonight, with lows in the 20s for all areas. Freeze Warnings have been issued for those are that have not already had a morning freeze. - Dry and milder through the upcoming weekend with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The H5 trough continues to exit to the southeast, and is gradually taking the clouds and precip with it. As of current writing time, the only remaining light rain is confined to Natrona County, and continues to draw to the southeast as well. Most light rain should be complete by 6AM, but light sprinkles may continue on Casper Mountain for a couple more hours. Skies will clear through the rest of the day, and with good cold air advection still in place, highs will struggle to reach the 50s. This will be accompanied by a modest northerly breeze, making for a brisk autumn day. Areas across Johnson County will hold some more of the influence of the sfc low gradient, so winds will be higher through the day, gusting 30 to 40 mph through the afternoon. Watch for cross winds along the I-90 corridor. Winds will die off quickly after sunset as high pressure sweeps in. This sets the stage for the first freeze of the season for most of the state. Most areas will fall into the 20s for several hours tonight. The only inhibiting factor may be enough of a breeze in the Wind River Basin to mix things enough to limit the overall timing of the freeze, but this airmass is cold enough to overcome most of this. Freeze Warnings are in effect tonight across central Wyoming, where freezing temperatures have not yet been reached. The main pattern this weekend is a broad H5 ridge across the Rockies, bringing moderating temperatures and deflecting the storm track back into southern Canada. The main impact will be which way the winds are from. Winds Saturday will be from the southwest, bringing the warmer air back into the region. Sunday a weather system passes across southern Canada, switching winds back from the north. While no cold air will return with these winds, it will be enough to bring temperatures back to near normal around 60 degrees. The next weather impact across western Wyoming still looking to be sometime Tuesday, when the ridge is broken down by a trough along the Rockies, bringing more moisture back from the southwest. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 520 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Skies are quickly thinning and lifting this morning, with only cloud cover left over around KCPR and some high clouds over KRKS. Skies should be nearly clear by 18Z, and remain clear through the night tonight. Fog signal this morning is very weak and has not been forming so far, so have removed any notes in TAF for today. Winds will be from the north through the day at all sites, with gusts of 20 to 25kts at KWRL/KRIW/KCPR/KRKS this afternoon. Higher wind gusts will be noted at KBYG, reaching near 40kts this afternoon. All sites go nearly calm overnight, with KCPR/KRKS shifting back from the southwest late overnight. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ005-006-010-011-016>020-028>030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Straub  235 FXUS66 KSGX 151126 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 426 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Santa Ana winds expected today through Saturday, with the strongest and most widespread on Friday. Additionally, moderate to major HeatRisk is expected for coastal areas. Cooler conditions will spread inland Sunday, with greater cooling and chance of showers next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... Today through tomorrow night... As an upper level low that has been cut off east of the region establishes itself to the southwest of San Diego, with a high positioned to the north over northwestern Nevada in a rex blocking pattern, the pressure gradient between the two are going to allow for offshore winds to strengthen, initally out of the north to northeasterly direction today, and then becoming more easterly tomorrow. These winds are expected to peak tomorrow, with gusts at around 35 to 55 mph for the inland valleys, and stronger gusts along the slopes, with local gusts approaching 70 mph within some of the higher terrain passes and canyons. As the low taps into some of the remnant tropical moisture from Simon, it will provide a slight increase in humidity tomorrow, and there will be slight chance of a shower or two developing over the mountains during the afternoon hours. RH values will diminish to 15-25 percent by later this afternoon, but then gradually increase to 20 to 30 percent minimum values from Friday, with the influx of moisture. (see fire weather section below). Temperatures will be warmest for the coastal locations, due to the offshore flow. This will also help to impede the marine layer from forming overnight. Highs will be the warmest tomorrow, and for the coastal regions, ranging from upper 80s to low 90s, hence the reason for the Heat Advisory. This weekend through next Wednesday... Santa Ana conditions will persist through Saturday, and then these offshore winds will begin to weaken. Temperatures will gradually cool throughout the weekend, and onshore flow will eventually return going into Sunday, whcih may bring about the onset of some dense fog for portions of the coastal areas during the early morning hours. There will also be an approaching major shortwave trough towards the middle part of next week, which will bring chances of precipitation back into the picture by late Tuesday into Wednesday, along with the return of much cooler temperatures. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions with near critical conditions in locations with abundant dry fuels where topography and wind direction are well aligned for today through Saturday. Northeast to east Santa Ana winds are expected to increase later today and continue through Saturday, with the strongest and most widespread winds on Friday. Winds will be mostly out of the north and northeast today, becoming more northeast to east by Friday, and easterly on Saturday. Gusts for the valleys will mainly be 35 to 55 mph, with the strongest winds below passes and near mountain foothills. For the coastal slopes and through passes, local gusts have the potential to exceed 65 mph. Lowest daytime relative humidity for the valleys and inland coastal areas will fall to 15 to 25 percent by later this afternoon, then recover to 20 to 30 percent for Friday and Saturday. Winds will weaken from Friday's peak on Saturday but remain elevated. Much weaker offshore winds expected Sunday, with the pressure gradient returning to onshore by Monday. There will be a slight chance of a shower or two developing over the mountains and adjacent deserts during the afternoon on Friday, although very little probability of there being any significant wetting rain. && .AVIATION... 151130Z...SKC and VFR today and tonight. Areas of northeast winds in mountain foothills becoming stronger gusting 25-45 kts and spreading into valleys and inland coastal areas after 16Z. Areas of MOD-STG up/downdrafts in lee of (south and west of) mountains along with areas of LLWS where strong winds do not surface in valleys. && .MARINE... Isolated northeast gusts could exceed 20 knots Friday into early Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .BEACHES... A prevailing southerly swell will generate surf 3-5 feet with local sets to 6 feet today, and produce strong rip currents. Late morning high tide near 6.5 feet today, producing minor coastal flooding. Tides are expected to fall thereafter, diminishing the threat for coastal flooding. Check the Beach Hazards Statement for details. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire. High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Diego County Valleys. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for San Bernardino County Mountains. High Wind Warning until midnight PDT Saturday night for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. High Wind Warning until noon PDT Saturday for Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Wind Advisory until noon PDT Saturday for Orange County Inland Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Stewey AVIATION/MARINE...MM  310 FXUS61 KCLE 151128 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 728 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The low pressure has trended weaker over the past couple of forecast runs leading wind gusts tending lower for Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There will be a chance for thunderstorms as a warm front lifts north across the region tonight. A few storms could produce strong gusts upwards of 50 MPH. 2) A cold front will sweep through the region early Friday as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes bringing the chance for rain and gusty winds. 3) Coldest air of the season is expected Friday night and Saturday night with frost/freeze conditions expected on Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure will begin to develop in the Mid-Mississippi Valley midday today and deepen to the northeast into the Great Lakes by late this evening. Ahead of this low, a warm front will lift north across the region late tonight into the early overnight hours. The majority of the region should remain dry through much of the day as showers and thunderstorms will enter Northwestern Ohio by 6-8PM this evening and move eastward. The chances of thunderstorms will decrease further east as we move into the late overnight hours and instability will wane. On the note of instability, temperatures through out the day will warm into the low 70s with dewpoints climbing into the low 60s by late this evening. This will lead to marginal instability, in the for of a few hundred J/kg along and behind the warm front. Additionally, a strong low level jet of 40-50 knots out of the southwest will accompany the warm front as it moves north. 0-6km Bulk shear of around 50 knots is also expected with the low level jet. With this, there is potential for a few stronger thunderstorms to produce wind gusts of 50 MPH or greater. Though poor lapse rates across the region will limit how much of the low level winds mix down and limiting the overall severe weather threat. Currently, SPC has much of North-Central Ohio within a Marginal Risk for this time period. Severe weather threat should dissipate later into the overnight as precipitation chances decrease as well with the departing warm front. KEY MESSAGE 2... The associated cold front from the low pressure system will sweep through the region west to east Friday morning into the afternoon. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected with the front as it moves through with widespread accumulation expected. Currently expecting around 0.25-.50" of accumulation with higher amounts possible within thunderstorms. The low level jet and low pressure itself has trended weaker over the past couple of model runs. This is leading to wind gusts and winds overall being lower, even with the strong CAA behind the front. Winds are still expected to be 15- 20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH possible. The strongest timeframe for winds will be after midnight Friday through early Saturday morning when the winds shift to be out of the north with a secondary trough moving through. The strongest winds are expected to be along the lakeshore, generally from the Islands east through Lake County with gusts around 35-40 MPH. Winds will begin to subside Saturday morning as high pressure begins to build in from the west. With the secondary trough moving through and winds shifting to be out of the north, lake effect showers are possible across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania. An additional couple tenth of rain is possible with these linger showers, primarily around Cleveland and south through Akron due to the connection from Lake Huron with the northerly winds. The lake effect showers should linger into Saturday afternoon and begin to dissipate as drier air moves in with the upper level ridge. Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. KEY MESSAGE 3... Behind the cold front, much colder air will be advected into the region with the northwest the north flow Saturday into early Sunday. Temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning will drop down into the mid to upper 30s with areas near the lakeshore staying in the 40s. Temperatures have trended a few degrees warmer for the region, so there is less confidence in needing frost headlines for Saturday morning. Northwestern Pennsylvania will be the coldest location in the CWA with temperatures in the mid 30s, but winds being 10-15 MPH throughout the night may inhibit frost formation. Saturday night into Sunday morning will have more widespread temperatures at 36 degrees or lower. High pressure will have built in across much of the region at this point with only some lingering cloud cover and winds becoming light at less than 5 MPH allowing for decent radiational cooling. Trends still have the areas east of the I-71 corridor away from the lakeshore with an over 50% chance of seeing temperatures below freezing. Frost conditions are likely elsewhere with lower probability near the lakeshore given the lake is still relatively warm. Temperatures will begin to moderate to more seasonal highs and lows starting Sunday as the high pressure builds to the east and southwesterly flow moves into the region. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... A warm front is expected to lift across the area this evening, quickly followed by a cold front early Friday. Most sites remain MVFR due to ceilings this morning. MVFR ceilings will be most common today, though they'll bounce up and down some and there will likely be a period of modest improvement this afternoon in which some sites will try going VFR. MVFR ceilings become more widespread this evening as the warm front sweeps through, with showers likely as well. Some heavier showers can bring brief MVFR visibility with isolated thunder also possible. Have some PROB30 groups for lower vis and/or TSRA potential for a few hours late this evening into the overnight at most sites. The cold front will likely sweep through TOL/FDY near the end of the TAF period (12z Friday) and the remaining sites shortly thereafter. Showers with some vis restrictions will likely fill in along and behind the cold front, with ceilings mainly remaining MVFR but perhaps briefly IFR at a few sites. Winds will gradually shift to the east-southeast through the day today, and then more south-southwest behind the warm front this evening into tonight. Winds shift west-northwest behind the cold front into Friday. Speeds will generally remain 10 knots or less through today before increasing to 10-15kt with some 25-30kt gusts behind the warm front tonight. A 40-50kt low-level jet will overspread the area overnight tonight. Forecast soundings do no show a strong low-level inversion so it's unclear if we'll see true low-level wind shear or if gusts/turbulence will be more common. For now left the LLWS out of TAFs, though future cycles may need to include it and either way conditions will be noticeable on takeoff/landing. Outlook...Occasional non-VFR expected to continue in periods of rain showers and lower ceilings through Friday night. Winds may gust over 30kt at times Friday afternoon through early Saturday. && .MARINE... Winds and waves from the Islands through Willowick, OH will continue to decrease over the next few hours so the Small Craft Advisory has been canceled early. Winds throughout today will be out of the east at 10-15 knots, then shifting to the south-southeast and increasing to 20-25 knots as a warm front lifts north across the lake late this evening. A low pressure system will move north of the lake tonight into Friday sweeping a cold front though early Friday morning. Winds will shift around to be out of the northwest at 20-25 knots Friday morning through the afternoon. Waves will build to 6-9 feet across the lake as a result. A secondary trough will move across the lake Friday evening and winds will shift to be out of the north at around 25-30 knots and waves will build to 7-11 feet. The probability of gales across the central basin as decrease due to the low pressure system trending weaker than previously. Though, wind gusts exceeding 34 knot gales are still possible and Small Craft Advisories will be needed for Friday and Saturday. Elevated winds will persist through Saturday morning when they diminish to around 15-20 knots by midday. Winds will continue to diminish into Saturday evening to around 5-15 knots and shift to be out of the northwest with waves diminishing as well with high pressure builds into the region. Winds will increase out of the southwest early Sunday morning to 10-15 knots and persist through Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...23  291 FXUS63 KDVN 151128 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 628 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A widespread rain will occur through early evening with possibly a rumble of thunder. No severe storms are expected. - A strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight bringing very windy conditions into Friday. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible. - Frost is a certainty across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. The probability of a light freeze north of Highway 30 are now 50-60 percent. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 146 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Dry easterly flow is delaying the onset of rain. The lift is strong so once rain begins developing the areal coverage will increase quickly. The strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight turning winds around to the northwest. All models show a trop fold moving through the area late Thursday night and Friday. Said feature will result in very windy conditions from midnight through early Friday afternoon. Gusts to 40 mph will be common with localized gusts to 45 mph. The probabilities of wind headlines are currently at 25-30 percent. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 146 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday night through Wednesday Assessment...a certainty of frost late Friday night into Saturday morning. Clearing skies and light winds will result in frost occurring Friday night into Saturday morning. Overall probabilities of a light freeze continue to increase north of Highway 30. Freeze probabilities for those areas are now 50-60 percent. Frost headlines will be needed in the next 36 hours for the Friday night into Saturday morning time frame. Trends will continue to be watched regarding the possibility of freeze headlines. Frost will also be possible late Saturday night and Sunday morning east of the Mississippi. Unlike Friday night, it is expected to be more isolated. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Messy aviation conditions are expected for today, as an area of low pressure approaches the region this morning and quickly exits by this evening. Ahead of it, widespread showers (80-100% chances) and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms will develop over the region. Largely MVFR ceilings will transition to IFR ceilings, along with MVFR to isolated IFR visibility reductions. Confidence in these conditions are high, although the exact timing of transition still remains uncertain. As the low pressure system moves through late this morning into the afternoon, winds will become variable for a time before turning northwesterly in its wake. As the rain moves out, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to strengthening winds this evening through the day Friday, with gusts between 25 to 30 knots prior to 12z Friday (even stronger winds are expected after 12z). && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Schultz  313 FXUS64 KSJT 151128 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 628 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect for this afternoon and tonight (1 PM today to 7 AM Friday) for all of the Big Country, Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau, along with Coleman and Concho Counties. Focused shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall is expected. - Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall today and tonight for Crockett County into portions of southern Irion, far southwestern Tom Green, and western parts of Schleicher and Sutton Counties. Surrounding this Moderate risk area is a Slight risk for excessive rainfall, which encompasses most of of west central Texas. - Much cooler temperatures expected Friday into the weekend with gusty north winds on Friday. Some low-lying areas may have morning lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 201 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Showers and thunderstorms were occurring in the Big Country during the post-Midnight hours. These should move out of the area by or prior to daybreak this morning. Our area should have a relative lull in precipitation during the morning with isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible in northern and far western parts of the area. An upper low over Colorado will open into a wave as it moves northeast into the central Plains today. This system will get absorbed into an upper trough diving south- southeast out of Canada and across the northern Plains into the Midwest. Associated strong cold front will move south across our area this afternoon and tonight, and exit the area by Midnight. The airmass over our area is anomalously moist with precipitable water values 1.6 to 2 inches. Embedded disturbances moving across our area in southwest flow aloft, combined with a surface focus with the cold front, will result in extensive (and focused) development of showers and thunderstorms. This will affect primarily the area which has a Flood Watch (all of Big Country, Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau and east to Coleman and Concho Counties). Efficient rainfall from this convection will result in heavy rainfall in short periods of time. The highest risk of flash flooding is in the area southwest of San Angelo (Crockett County and surrounding area), where longer duration of heavy rain is anticipated. Timing for the more focused shower/thunderstorm activity is this afternoon and early evening for the Big Country, late this afternoon into early tonight for our central counties, and this evening (from 5 or 6 PM) to Midnight for our southern counties. In general, there is potential for 1-3 inches of rainfall over a fairly large area, with localized pockets in excess of 5 inches. Please see the Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Discussion (Day 1) for more details and on the rainfall amounts. For temperatures, expect highs today to range from the upper 70s in far northwestern parts of our area, to the upper 80s in our far east and southeast counties (Brown, McCulloch, San Saba and Mason Counties). After the strong cold frontal passage, increased and gusty north winds are expected tonight. Friday morning lows are expected to be in the 50s with the coolest readings in the Big Country. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The upper-level trough responsible for active weather across west central Texas on Thursday will start to shift eastward on Friday into Saturday, leaving behind shortwave ridging across Texas. A strong surface cold front will also push southward through central Texas by Friday morning with a 1033mb high pressure center behind it. The strong pressure gradient should produce strong winds behind the front and wind speeds could reach 20-30 MPH on Friday. At this point, there is a low to medium (30-60%) chance for winds exceeding 30 MPH at some point on Friday, which would meet Wind Advisory criteria. Otherwise, much cooler and more stable air will settle in across the region for the weekend. High temperatures look to be in the low to mid 60s for Friday and Saturday but could feel a bit cooler on Friday due to lingering cloud cover. Skies should clear out on Friday night with light winds which should allow for ideal radiational cooling conditions early Saturday morning as well as Sunday morning. As a result, low temperatures both mornings could be quite cool as they look to drop to around 40. This would be the coldest temperatures we have experienced since mid-April! The strong area of high pressure will move eastward by Sunday afternoon and allow for southerly return flow at the surface while an upper-level shortwave passes to the north. High temperatures should climb back into the 70s on Sunday and Monday and into the 80s on Tuesday. The upper-level pattern could become more active for the middle part of next week as global models are in fairly good agreement of an upper-level low digging into southern California by Tuesday night. This would place much of west Texas under southwest flow aloft, similar to what occurred earlier this week. Differences in timing and moisture amounts still exist on this feature so for now, low (20-30%) chances for rain are in the forecast for Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low cloud development over much of west central Texas early this morning is affecting our TAF sites with mostly MVFR ceilings. Cloud cover will persist into early afternoon but ceilings will climb above 3000ft between 15Z and 17Z. This afternoon, VFR-based cloud cover should become scattered at KBBD and KJCT. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible this morning, mainly in our northern and far western counties. Later this afternoon into tonight, expansive north to south development of showers and thunderstorms will occur (across approximately the northwestern two-thirds of our area) with the arrival and passage of a strong cold front. Showers and a few thunderstorms will follow the frontal passage as well. Expect reductions in visibilities and ceilings in heavy rain accompanying the convection. Timing of the frontal passage is 21Z at KABI, 00Z at KSJT, and 03Z at our southern terminals (KSOA and KJCT). With the frontal passage, winds will shift to north or north-northeast, and will increase and become gusty. Post-frontal low cloud cover will advance southward across the area this evening and tonight, with mostly MVFR ceilings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 83 54 62 43 / 90 90 0 0 San Angelo 83 51 62 40 / 90 90 10 0 Junction 86 53 65 42 / 10 80 10 0 Brownwood 88 53 64 42 / 40 80 10 0 Sweetwater 78 52 60 41 / 90 70 0 0 Ozona 81 51 60 40 / 80 100 20 0 Brady 88 53 63 42 / 30 80 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion- Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton- Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...19  638 FXUS63 KGRB 151133 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 633 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .UPDATE... Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for the bay and our nearshore waters of Lake Michigan from 8 am to 9 pm Friday. The Gale Warning was started a few hours early to cover the ramp up of hazardous small craft due to increasing winds and waves until gale force gust arrive late Friday morning and continue through the afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain arrives Thursday afternoon, and will continue at times through Friday. Expect most areas to see between 0.5 and 1" of total rainfall. - Northwest winds increase on Friday, with gusts between 35 and 45 mph possible. Gale force gusts expected across marine zones. - A widespread frost/freeze event is expected Friday night into early Saturday morning. - A warming trend and breezy southwest winds will bring daytime high temperatures back into the 60s late this weekend, with minimal rain chances through mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Rain chances Thursday/Friday... Biggest change from previous forecast cycles centers around a noticeable jump in QPF amounts Thursday through Friday as models hone in on timing/evolution of the upper pattern. Signs still point toward phasing of northern and southern stream lows over the western Great Lakes Thursday night as a deepening surface low ejects from the central Plains. Jet energy ramps up during this time as moisture plume (near 99th percentile PWATs) interacts with mid-level FGEN in proximity to low pressure over southern Wisconsin. As such, probabilities for receiving one inch of QPF now stand at a widespread 30 to 60%. Thus expecting a soaking rainfall across most of northeast Wisconsin, which will be beneficial to areas across the north that have been in an extended period of drought. Stratiform rain then becomes more scattered in coverage on Friday, though wrap around moisture should keep at least light rain around for most of the day. Temperatures... Following a decent stretch of seasonable weather, cold FROPA and intrusion of arctic high will bring a brief spell of well below normal temperatures from the Plains to the Midwest on Friday. 850 mb temperatures plunge to around 2 to 5C below zero, which will translate to high temperatures reading in the mid 40s across the north to the mid 50s in the Fox Valley. Overnight lows will then fall into the mid 20s to low 30s inland of Lake Michigan, pointing toward a high confidence setup for frost/freeze under clearing skies and light winds. If trends hold, expect most areas to see a hard freeze that would effectively put an end to the growing season. Expect headlines to be forthcoming in the next day or so. Return flow then quickly sets up over the weekend, resulting in high temperatures rebounding into the 60s. Extended... High pressure looks to be the main driver of the synoptic pattern through at least the middle of next week, with no organized systems on the horizon. More active pattern looks to set up beyond then as upper flow re-amplifies, though details are few this far out. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 CIGS will continue to fall into the IFR category later this morning into the afternoon as rain and drizzle overspread the area today. The poor flying conditions continue this evening with rain and fog, then conditions gradually improving late tonight into Friday morning. The other big story will be strong northerly winds that may gust to 30 to 40 knots on Friday that may impact departures/arrivals. The wind should quickly subside Friday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for the bay and our nearshore waters of Lake Michigan from 8 am to 9 pm Friday. The Gale Warning was started a few hours early to cover the ramp up of hazardous small craft due to increasing winds and waves until gale force gust arrive late Friday morning and continue through the afternoon. From the previous discussion: Gradient winds on the back edge of the departing surface low ramp up Thursday night into Friday morning, putting us solidly within northwest flow and CAA regime. Deep daytime mixing will tap into 45 to 50 knot winds at 850 mb Friday afternoon, which will result in a brief window for gale force gusts over all marine zones through Friday evening. NBM probabilistic guidance continues to show a healthy signal (60 to 90%) for gusts exceeding 38 mph, highest along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters south of Kewaunee. Waves build 6 to 9 ft on the Lake and 3 to 6 ft on the Bay during this time, subsiding Friday night as winds shift to more westerly and the pressure gradient eases up. Gale Watches remain in effect. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.........Eckberg DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Eckberg MARINE.........Goodin/Eckberg  644 FXUS64 KBMX 151133 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 633 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 631 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 - Record Highs: Temperatures will be well above normal this week, with medium to high chances of record high temperatures. - Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region Friday into Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 This evening we have a surface boundary extending from the TX Panhandle, to AR, and NEWD to MD. The W portions of this boundary will get pushed NWD as a warm front as we head into the day Thursday as a cold front develops on the lee of the Rockies and the associated low moves NEWD. By Friday morning this low is expected to have progressed to the Great Lakes and combined with another system pushing SEWD out of Central Canada. During Friday this system should get enough of a favorable push from the upper flow to move through C AL and finally allow fall to make its arrival in the area. There may be just enough moisture with the help of frontal forcing to allow for a few isolated showers Friday afternoon. No TS or heavy rain is anticipated. However, before that we still have Thu where we could see a few max temp records in jeopardy (see climate section), and Fri where max temps will still be above normal. Breezy and gusty at times NRLY winds should be felt Fri afternoon, that night and on into Saturday with tight surface pressure gradients behind the front. Cool readings with lows in the 40s for many on Fri night and for all Sat/Sun nights with highs generally in the 60s over the weekend. Our airmass should begin to moderate for next week as our flow becomes more ERLY, but overall still dry. 08 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 Surface and upper level high pressure should provide about 24 more hours of clear conditions and light wind for central Alabama terminals. As soon as patchy fog burns off at TCL and MGM, VFR conditions can be expected areawide. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week with MinRHs dropping into the low 30% range for many locations. A cold front will move through the area Friday into Saturday leading to gusty winds, minimal rainfall, and much drier and cooler conditions behind the front. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 Record High Temperatures: Thu Oct. 15: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 92/2025 KANB: 87/1975 KTCL: 91/1962 KMGM: 92/1881 Fri Oct. 16: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 90/2025 KANB: 87/1965 KTCL: 90/1962 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 89 60 84 47 / 0 0 20 10 Anniston 89 62 84 48 / 0 0 20 10 Birmingham 89 64 84 48 / 0 0 20 10 Tuscaloosa 92 62 85 49 / 0 0 10 0 Calera 89 62 84 48 / 0 0 20 10 Auburn 88 63 84 51 / 0 0 20 10 Montgomery 89 63 86 52 / 0 0 20 10 Troy 88 62 85 51 / 0 0 20 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION.../61/  642 FXUS64 KTSA 151133 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 633 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 629 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday afternoon for much of northeast Oklahoma. - Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Thursday evening with periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, especially this evening and overnight. - A few strong to severe storms will be possible tonight with the most likely area near and along I-40. - A cold front will bring much cooler and pleasant weather by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will move from their current position along I-35 just to the west of the forecast area, across eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas from late this evening into the pre-dawn hours on Thursday. The bowed portion of the line remains severe, with a northeasterly movement that should take it into portions of east central and eventually far northeast Oklahoma, roughly along the northern edge of the DCAPE axis. This should support a continued risk for locally damaging winds as far east as the Arkansas border. Radar estimates around an inch of rainfall in an hour, which should continue as it moves across the forecast area and support a continued threat for localized flooding. The Flood Watch has been expanded another tier of counties southward, largely due to a combination of the expectations of where the current activity will go and also a strip of locally higher totals from the rains earlier today. Storm development should continue into the daylight hours Thursday due to the low level jet, with some decrease in coverage and intensity late morning into early afternoon as it wanes. Additional storms are expected to develop as the cold front begins to move through the area during the afternoon, with a gradual southward shift with time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Cold frontal storms will be ongoing across areas south of I-44 early Thursday evening, with the storm axis continuing to push southward with the front. Dry conditions will likely arrive areawide by daybreak Friday. Much drier dew points and colder temperatures will follow the front, along with a substantial increase in northerly winds. Peak gusts Thursday night and into Friday will likely be in the 30 to 40 mph range. This does not appear to be a slam dunk Wind Advisory case but would not be surprised to see a couple of observations with gusts above 40 mph. Parts of far southeast Oklahoma that do not receive much rainfall from the current event may see a brief uptick in the potential for fire weather concerns on Friday given the gusty winds and much lower dew points that will be in place. Surface high pressure will move into the area Friday night and into Saturday, in part, leading to the lowest overnight temperatures of the season so far for both Friday night and Saturday night. Locations near the Kansas border will flirt with freezing temperatures both mornings with both winds and humidities supporting possible frost. Keep an eye on this potential in the next couple of days if you have sensitive vegetation outdoors. South winds make a return Sunday, signaling the start of a warmup that is expected to continue into at least the early to middle part of next week. Temperatures climb to near normal Monday afternoon and above Tuesday afternoon. The dry conditions that begin Friday will extend through at least Wednesday, with low chances arriving late next week to western parts of the area due to another system approaching from the west. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms ongoing across NE OK will continue to lift northeastward through the morning with flight levels likely to be widely varying across the region. A lull in precip coverage is possible from late morning into mid afternoon before additional showers and scattered storms develop ahead of the approaching cold front. The front will sweep across the local area from late afternoon through late evening with winds becoming gusty. Post frontal ceilings are expected to become VFR conditions overnight with lower clouds likely spreading back across parts of the region beyond this forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 48 59 41 / 100 20 0 0 FSM 86 53 64 44 / 60 80 0 0 MLC 80 51 62 43 / 90 80 0 0 BVO 75 43 58 34 / 90 0 0 0 FYV 80 44 59 37 / 80 80 0 0 BYV 81 46 58 41 / 70 70 0 0 MKO 78 49 60 40 / 90 60 0 0 MIO 76 45 57 38 / 90 20 0 0 F10 77 48 60 40 / 90 50 0 0 HHW 88 55 64 44 / 30 40 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ055>067-154-254- 354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...07  652 FXUS63 KEAX 151133 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 633 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely this morning and afternoon. However, rainfall totals have trended downward, and the remaining flood watch has been canceled. - A cold front will move through the region from west to east this afternoon, with northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 to 30 mph behind the front. - Much colder and drier air will move in behind the front, with high temperatures on Friday only reaching the low to mid 50s and gusty northwesterly winds continuing into Friday afternoon. - Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning should drop into the mid to upper 30s, with areas of frost likely. Temperatures may flirt with the freezing mark across northern Missouri and NE Kansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current H5 analysis shows the upper low centered over the Front Range, with enhanced southwesterly mid/upper level flow downstream across Kansas and Missouri. At the surface, the accompanying surface cyclone is currently lifting to the northeast out of northern Oklahoma. This has helped generate a large shield of showers and thunderstorms across eastern/southeastern Kansas, lifting to the northeast into our CWA. The surface low should continue to lift northeast through the morning hours, pulling a warm front south to north through much of the CWA and allowing for temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the area by early afternoon. Scattered showers with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms are likely through the remainder of the morning hours and into early afternoon. However, expected rainfall totals have trended significantly downward, and the remaining flood watch in effect across far southern portions of the CWA has been canceled. The closed mid/upper low across the Front Range is progged to become an open wave and eject into the central CONUS by later today, which will push the surface low and trailing cold front through the CWA from west to east this afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly behind the front, increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Colder temperatures and drier air will also move in behind the front. Another mid/upper trough will become more amplified and dig further south out of Canada and into the Midwest late tonight into early Friday, sending another reinforcing shot of colder and drier air, with temperatures falling into the mid 40s by Friday morning. With gusty northwesterly winds continuing, wind chills Friday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s. With strong cold air advection on Friday, temperatures will struggle to warm, and guidance has continued to trend colder with max temps Friday now only projected to reach the lower to mid 50s (although high res guidance suggests even colder temps than this). Gusty north northwesterly winds will continue through mid to late afternoon. The pressure gradient should begin to subside by Friday evening as a 1036 mb surface high slides eastward out of the central High Plains and toward our CWA. By Friday night, the surface high should be centered directly overhead, yielding calm winds, clear skies, and low dew points. This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across most of the region, with temperatures potentially flirting with the freezing mark across portions of northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. This should yield areas of frost across the area, with some sort of frost/freeze product potentially being needed depending on how guidance trends over the next 36 hours. Saturday shouldbe a beautiful (albeit slightly cool) mid October day, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, clear skies, and light winds. Mid level ridging begins to build in from the west by Sunday and into next week out initially out ahead of a shortwave trough over Baja California and then out ahead of a longwave trough that is progged to develop off the West Coast by Monday/Tuesday. This should bring in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the low to mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon and mid to even upper 70s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Scattered rain showers should continue through the remainder of the morning hours and perhaps linger into early afternoon, with brief reductions in VIS to around 5SM to 6SM during marginally heavier pockets of rain. Otherwise, LIFR to IFR CIGs should continue before improving to MVFR somewhere by early to mid afternoon, and finally to VFR by around 2z to 3z Friday. A cold front will move through the terminals from west to east by around 20z this afternoon, turning winds to northwesterly and increasing winds to 12 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to perhaps even 25 knots through the afternoon and evening hours. Gusts may relax just a bit by late evening, but sustained NW winds should remain elevated (12 knots or so) through the overnight hours. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW  672 FXUS65 KSLC 151135 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 534 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... - A few showers will linger over portions of eastern Utah tonight before dry conditions develop areawide Thursday through the weekend with a gradual warming trend in temperatures. - Confidence remains relatively high that a more active pattern will return next week, though uncertainty is higher than usual in the timing or details of any systems that may move through. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... The slow moving low pressure system that has been impacting Utah and southwest Wyoming the past few days has moved into Colorado this evening. Most areas remain dry behind it, but some showers persist over eastern Utah on the back side of the system. As the low continues east overnight, the remaining precipitation will diminish. Temperatures stayed on the cold side today with maxes running 10-15F above seasonal normals. with a bit of a Rex Block pattern developing over the Pacific coast over the next few days, conditions will stay dry through the weekend with highs warming to near seasonal normals for Saturday and Sunday. Most guidance indicates the Rex Block breaking by Saturday as a Pacific Northwest trough moves it out of the way before tracking along the US/Canada border. The absence of the ridge would open up the West to a more active storm track next week. However, there remains considerable spread as to the timing and track of these systems. The most popular solution brings a Pacific system across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing primarily rain due to the warm nature of the system. A minority of guidance, however, (including the latest deterministic ECMWF) keep the low off the California coast through midweek, allowing dry conditions to persist longer. Models tend to struggle with closed low features, so hopefully more confidence in the details comes in future runs. && && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions and light northwest winds will prevail throughout the day. There is a 30% chance winds become light southeasterly before 16Z this morning. Northwest winds will return to a southeasterly drainage wind this evening around 02Z. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Gusty easterly winds will develop at KEVW this morning and persist through the day, while winds at the remainder of northern TAF sites remain light northerly. Gusty northeast winds will develop at KCDC and KSGU by early afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 219 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026... The low pressure system which has been slowly crossing the region over the past couple of days will finally move east today, leaving a cool and stable airmass in its wake. Increased sunshine will allow temperatures to trend warmer today, but remain a few degrees below normal. Strengthening high pressure will bring a warming and drying trend heading into the weekend resulting in seasonal temperatures for mid-October. A weather system will bring a few showers to southern Utah Sunday, however the next significant storm system to impact the region will arrive during the middle to latter portion of next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Seaman FIRE WEATHER...Seaman HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  786 FXUS61 KCAR 151138 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 738 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 740 am update...Update for 12z aviation discussion - Slight decrease in snow potential for northern areas due to a northerly trend in the track of the system Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong system Friday through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the North Friday/Friday night and strong winds Friday night into Saturday. 2) Extended dry period from the weekend through at least late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system Friday through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the North Friday/Friday night and strong winds Friday night into Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A strong low pressure system is expected to develop over the Great Lakes, then move east towards the state this weekend. This system is expected to bring widespread precip to the region Friday. As of this update, ensemble solutions are gradually converging on a track through the northern half of the state but there are still groupings of members wanting to take the track a bit south. The updated track of the system closer to the north will limit colder air making it further south, so snow chances have decreased. The track is still relatively favorable for some snowfall in northern areas as winds will have an easterly component, preventing substantial warm air from advecting into the area. Most areas that see snow will probably see less than an inch but a few areas near the Canadian border might reach an inch or possibly two. Snow amounts are likely to be terrain dependent with higher elevations receiving the greater amounts. Any areas that do see some snow will transition to rain in the afternoon as temperatures warm. Widespread rain amounts of a third of an inch of rain to half an inch of rain are expected for the forecast area. Some slick roads are possible Friday night as temperatures drop to around freezing. Snow showers in the north are likely to persist into Saturday with strong, gusty winds up to 40 mph. Along with temperatures in the 30s this is likely to result in wind chills dipping into the 20s. Isolated power outages are possible with the gusty winds. KEY MESSAGE 2...Extended dry period from the weekend through at least late next week. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As the system departs Saturday, high pressure will build in over the area. High pressure is expected to continue to dominate through next week as the jet stream generally stays to our north. High pressure will limit precipitation chances through next week and lead to seasonable temperatures with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Today...VFR. NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt. Tonight...VFR. WNW winds 5 kt becoming calm overnight. Friday - Saturday...MVFR/IFR possible in rain, and possibly snow mixing in over the north. MVFR over the north Saturday with snow showers. SE winds 10 to 15 kt Friday, increasing to 15 to 20 kt out of the NW Saturday with gusts up to 35 kt. Saturday night - Sunday...VFR. WNW winds 10 kt gusting to 20 kt. Monday...VFR. S winds 5-10 kt. && .MARINE... SCA continues through 14z Thursday for intracoastal and coastal ocean waters with nw winds gusting to 30kts and seas between 4-6 feet. Outer waters will see gale force winds through 14z Thu before diminishing. Conditions to drop below small craft through Thursday night. Below SCA winds and seas Thursday night through Friday morning on the coastal and intracoastal waters, then winds and seas increase to SCA criteria on all waters Friday afternoon, becoming gales on all waters Friday night, persisting through Saturday. Winds decrease to SCA criteria Sunday. Seas peak at 11 to 13 ft on the outer waters and 6 to 9 ft on the coastal waters early Saturday. Winds and seas should be below SCA levels on Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ080-081. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/JMM AVIATION...ASB/21/JMM  775 FXUS64 KOUN 151138 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 638 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 632 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds possible this morning and afternoon, primarily south of I-40. - Multiple rounds of heavy rain expected between now and Thursday afternoon with an increasing flash flood risk. - Colder and drier airmass arrives late Thursday, with weather becoming cool and pleasant by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Thunderstorms are expected to continue through most of the day Thursday. Over the last 24 hours, several locations have received over 3 inches of rainfall. Locations across the I-40 corridor west of I-35, have received 6-12 inches of rain over the last 24 hours. Additional rounds of storms that move into these area will certainly exacerbate the flooding concerns. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches will be possible, especially if storms continue to train over the same area. As far as the severe concern through the morning, it will be limited to western north Texas and along the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma. The overall severe risk is low at this time. A strong cold front will sweep through the area Thursday, with gusty winds in the wake of the frontal boundary. High temperatures for the day will likely occur right ahead of the cold front. Additional thunderstorms are possible tomorrow ahead of the cold front, generally south of I-40. These thunderstorm chances will decrease from north to south with the frontal boundary push. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Much cooler temperatures are expected behind the aforementioned cold front. Overnight lows Friday morning will be in the 40s (north) and 50s (south). High temperatures Friday and Saturday will struggle to get above 60 F, as the cold air advection will continue during this timeframe. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s to upper 30s across the entire area. There is some signal for frost potential on Saturday morning across northern Oklahoma. Dry conditions are expected through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Colder temperatures will continue through the weekend, despite winds returning to southerly by Sunday. A warming trend will continue through the middle parts of the week, as mid-level heights increase. Dry conditions are also expected through the middle of the week as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected today across much of the area, with LIFR to MVFR conditions this morning. A cold front will drop southward this afternoon with winds shifting to the north-northwest and gusting to 25 to 30 mph with FROPA. MVFR conditions are expected this afternoon, though periods of IFR ceilings could accompany showers and storms early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 76 47 58 39 / 100 10 0 0 Hobart OK 76 48 60 37 / 80 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 81 51 61 40 / 90 40 0 0 Gage OK 69 42 57 32 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 76 45 58 36 / 80 0 0 0 Durant OK 88 54 64 44 / 60 80 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ008-012>031- 033>042-044>046-050. TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...01  926 FXUS64 KSHV 151142 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 642 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above average warmth will continue Thursday, with highs in the lower 90s and mostly dry weather prevailing. - A powerful cold front will cross the ArkLaTex Friday, bringing significantly cooler temperatures and much drier air. - Very low humidity and gusty winds will produce elevated fire weather conditions Friday and likely into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Southerly flow around a subtropical high will keep unseasonably warm temperatures in the lower 90s for the Ark-La-Tx Thursday afternoon. At the same time, the closed low over the Four Corners will merge back with the greater trough and propagate eastward toward the Great Lakes. A strong cold front associated with this trough is still expected to push through the region during the day on Friday, resulting in high temperatures as low as the upper 60s for some. Areas of Central LA could still see temperatures in the 80s before the front sweeps through in the afternoon. In addition to the sharp dip in temperatures, strong winds and dry air are expected to follow this front. Winds across the region could easily gust above 30 mph on Friday with RH's dipping into the 20-30 percent range. Even with the cooler temperatures, the dry air and gusty winds will compound on an already dire drought situation in terms of fire weather. Fuels are extremely dry with the lack of consistent wetting rainfall and are prone to catching fire from any sort of spark. The conditions on Friday will make these sparking fires spread much more quickly and be harder to contain. Most counties and parishes remain under burn bans due to the ongoing drought, but increased caution must be taken to prevent sparking wildfires and report any that begin quickly to proper authorities. As such, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the entire region from Friday morning through the evening hours. This watch merely outlines the extremely favorable weather conditions for fire spreading that will likely be in place on Friday and may be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning with a future forecast. The cooler air behind the front Friday is expected to linger through the day on Saturday before another upper-level ridge sets up another warming trend. Temperatures in the lower 70s on Sunday will quickly return to the low to mid 80s by midweek with little relief in sight. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For the 15/12Z TAF update, another round of MVFR/IFR vis/cigs are forming across the southern airspace as a frontal boundary approaches. Southerly winds will remain near 5-7 kts through most of the period, before strong frontal passage begins to occur by the end of the period with northerly wind gusts at or above 20 kts. /16/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A powerful cold front will cross area fire districts on Friday, with unseasonably cooler temperatures to follow. This front is not expected to produce any significant rainfall. The post-frontal airmass will also be very dry, dropping relative humidity values into the upper 20 to 30 percent range. North-northwest winds behind the front will be very breezy, maintaining sustained speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Together with critically dry fuels, these conditions merit a Fire Weather Watch for all area fire districts beginning Friday morning. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 65 71 50 / 0 10 0 0 MLU 93 65 77 49 / 0 0 10 0 DEQ 91 53 67 42 / 0 10 10 0 TXK 91 60 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 93 60 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 87 60 67 48 / 0 20 0 0 GGG 89 59 69 47 / 0 20 0 0 LFK 90 64 74 50 / 0 20 20 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for OKZ077. TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...16  937 FXUS65 KBOU 151142 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 542 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow continuing this morning across the northern mountains. Light additional snow accumulation's possible, with travel impacts on some high mountain passes for the morning commute. - First freeze of the season expected over most of the plains late Thursday night into early Friday morning. - Drier and warmer again for the weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 1111 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The upper level low continues to drift northeastward, with water vapor satellite suggesting the center is somewhere near Berthoud Pass as of 05z. This circulation is also evident on KFTG/KCYS, with bands of rain and snow showers pivoting to the west/southwest over Larimer and Jackson counties, while most of the snow showers along the I-70 corridor had moved eastward over the last couple of hours. Meanwhile, there's been some patchy dense fog that's developed across the lower foothills and portions of the I-25 corridor. Models do not have a very good handle on where and how long this will last, but it seems plausible that this would continue for the next few hours before quickly diminishing sometime in the early AM. Almost all of the additional snowfall tonight will fall along and north of the track of the 700/500mb lows overnight, meaning little to no additional snowfall is expected along and south of I-70. Even our far northern mountains may only see lower end advisory totals through tomorrow morning, with most guidance keeping the more significant QPF in Wyoming. We've tweaked the timing of the Winter Weather Advisories to try to account for this. Rain and snow showers will likely be ongoing across the northern CWA Thursday morning, with a band of precipitation pivoting from northwest to southeast during the morning hours as the upper low treks off to the northeast. Any additional precipitation across the I-25 corridor is expected to be light (generally just a few hundredths). Winds will pick up during the morning hours and continue through the afternoon as 800-700mb flow increases to 30-40kt in a subsident/cold air advection regime. A few gusts of 40-45 mph will be possible along and east of I-25 during the late morning and most of the afternoon. North-northwest flow aloft will continue on Friday, but winds are expected to diminish as the mid-level flow weakens and QG subsidence also decreases. We'll be left with a relatively cool but sunny day with highs remaining in the mid 50s to perhaps low 60s across the plains. A broad upper ridge will then be the focus for the weekend, with a pronounced warmup likely for both Saturday and Sunday. Highs across the plains are expected to rebound into the 70s, with dry conditions. While winds will generally remain weak, there could be some locally critical fire weather conditions over the far eastern plains both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. By next week, guidance generally begins to push the ridge off to the east, leaving the region in weak southwesterly flow aloft. A weak shortwave or two may attempt to push into the area by early/mid week, leading to a gradual increase in rain and snow showers across the higher elevations. However, the chances of any meaningful precipitation looks rather low... with 90th percentile QPF less than a tenth of an inch across the mountains through Wednesday. Temperatures during this period will likely remain above normal with highs in the 70s most days. There are hints of a more organized storm system by this time next week, but there (unsurprisingly) rather large differences in timing and location of that potential system at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/... Issued at 501 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ceilings this morning are bouncing between LIFR, IFR, and MVFR. Fog seems to have mostly cleared the area, with all TAF sites at P6SM this morning. Ceilings will continue to bounce between flight categories through the morning, with KDEN remaining ILS. Light showers are moving into the TAF sites, with showers on and off through roughly 17Z or 18Z today. Skies will clear behind the showers bringing VFR and visuals back to the TAF sites by the early afternoon. Winds will increase out of the north starting around 14Z, with gusts of 24kts to 30kts. Winds will weaken between 22Z and 00Z. Winds will become light and variable for the evening. Models are hinting at the potential for some stronger winds around 06Z from the northeast, but there's quite a bit of uncertainty on if those winds will actually mix down to the surface or not. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ031- 033. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for COZ038>051. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hiris AVIATION...AP  634 FXUS64 KJAN 151158 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 658 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated threat for fire danger conditions continue through the weekend. - A significant dry cold front will bring gusty northwest winds, worsened fire danger and wildfire concerns to the area tomorrow on Friday. - Very little, if any, rainfall is expected through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Through early mid next week (Wednesday)... Today: Morning surface and GOES East water vapor/RAP analysis indicate mean ridge around 592-594DM centered over the Gulf Coast states. Dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures (highs in 92-96F range and lows around 60 degrees in east MS to mid to upper 60s in central to northwest Delta) will persist. Additional record highs could tie or be eclipsed today. There remains efficient afternoon mixing/low humidity into critical levels (25 to 35 percent range) for continued Elevated fire danger which persist through the weekend. Heat indices will peak in the low to mid 90s today. The position of the ridge will continue a southeasterly fetch of return flow. High pressure will keep winds relatively light. Late week through early next week (Friday into Tuesday): Fall frontal passage remains likely Friday. An upper low currently over the Rockies will phase with deepening trough axis/upper jet diving into central Canada and southeast into the northern Plains to Mid MS Valley. This will help an amplified meridional and positively tilted trough. Stout, dry cold front will drive dewpoints falling into the mid to upper 30s (36-45F). Cannot rule out a rouge shower but overall majority areas will remain dry. Cool down remains likely this weekend. Highs will be seasonably warm Friday (72-78F in the Delta and 83-91F in southeast of the Delta), with lows in the low to mid 60s (61-66F) that morning and lows that night mid to upper 40s to low 50s north of Interstate 20 (45-50F) to mid to upper 50s (50- 53F) to the south. With continued drought stressed vegetation, this strong gusty front will likely increase fire danger concerns. The cold front will move into the Delta around daybreak Friday, Interstate 20 around midday and out of the area by early evening. 1030-1040mb surface high building will build east out of the lee side of the Rockies through the Mid West, leading to 6-8mb pressure gradient and resultant gusty gradient wind of 20-25mph sustained and wind gusts reaching 30-35mph at times. This will be a concern, so continue to monitor for any fire related headlines. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect across the region. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a Day 2 Elevated fire weather outlook for areas west of Interstate 55. There will efficient mixing but humidity may be slightly higher than today, so Elevated graphic still fits and will persist through the weekend. As the trough digs across the Eastern Seaboard and cuts off the Atlantic seaboard, ridge over the western Gulf will amplify, with the axis over the ArkLaTex. Seasonable and pleasant fall temperatures will build areawide into Saturday and Sunday (highs of 69-74F Saturday and 70- 78F Sunday and lows of 41-45F north of Interstate 20 to 46-50F to the south). Quiet and dry weather will persist next week, with an Omega block pattern developing (trough over the Baja California and southwest US and another just off the Carolina coast). Low level return flow and deep dry moisture profiles will lead to moderating temperatures (low 80s early week to mid to upper 80s by late week) and lows becoming more seasonable. With continued drought, stressed vegetation and afternoon humidity nearing critical levels by mid week (25 to35 percent), fire danger will likely persist. Holding off introducing anything for next week. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 658 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail at most TAF sites, with some IFR/LIFR stratus/dense fog approaching HEZ. Any flight restrictions will last through around 15/14-15Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the most of the TAF period, with additional IFR/LIFR stratus/dense fog possible overnight, mainly after 16/09-10Z Friday. /DC/22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 92 64 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 91 63 88 49 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 92 63 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 92 61 91 51 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 92 63 84 50 / 0 0 10 0 Greenville 93 64 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 94 63 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MSZ059>062. LA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LAZ024-026. AR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ DC/22