143 FXAK67 PAJK 151400 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 600 AM AKDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - The anticipated front has reached SE AK bringing rain and increased winds through Friday. - A Flood Watch is in effect for the southern panhandle with rain rates as high as 0.25 to 0.3 inches per hour possible. - Strong wind gust will continue into Friday morning. Wind advisories are in effect for the central and southern panhandle. && .SHORT TERM.../ through Saturday / A tropically moisture enhance moisture plum with the current weather front headed north to the Northeast gulf coast. Gusty winds in the 40 to 50 mph range for several communities and observations in know to be windier spots or enhanced locations may have to to 60 mph or higher this morning. the lead feature this morning landfalling in the north, while closer trailing wave with move more over teh central panhandle. Satellite Rainfall estimates morning is suggesting rates about 0.2 inches to 0.30 inches an hour, but may see some higher rate when terrain effects start assisting that. This moisture stream has a tropical connection with former Typhoon moisture being absorbed into the plume and will likely bring 2 to 3.5 inches of rain into the northern panhandle Thursday and 2 to 4 inches for the southern panhandle region. The plume will also raise the lower atmosphere temperature slightly, and any Thursday morning the snow levels around 2500 to 3000 feet are likely to be wiped out by late afternoon as the Snow levels rise closer to 5000 ft. Expect stream to rise int he north this morning as as well as over the south, but with a thirds system likely to push into the southern panhandle better chance for minor issues, so thus the Flood Watch of the southern panhandle area. .LONG TERM...The start of the long term looks to remain active with the low pressure continuing to persist. This will allow for clouds and precipitation to continue to impact the area. This low eventually dissipates while a stronger low looks to pass south of the area and high pressure builds in Canada. Behind this low, high pressure is expected to move in to the Gulf behind this stronger low which may allow for us to see a break Sunday evening into Monday morning. Headed into the start of next week, ensemble guidance wants to bring another low into the western Gulf. The main difference between EPS and GEFS guidance is where this low comes from. EPS wants to bring a low up from the south on Monday and have it merge with a low that is expected to persist in the Bering Sea before moving towards the Cook Inlet area Tuesday. This low then tracks into Prince William Sound Tuesday evening into Wednesday. GEFS guidance wants to bring the low from the Bering Sea on Monday and track it across the Alaska Peninsula and Cook Inlet before moving remaining offshore near Prince William Sound. && .AVIATION.../Through 12z Friday/...Conditions have diminished early this morning as a front has reached the area bringing times of heavy rain and strong winds. A few areas are holding on the VFR conditions, but ceilings are continuing to lower as the front moves across the panhandle. Widespread MVFR ceilings will soon be seen across the area, with ceilings AoB 3000 ft. This front will also drop visibilities to around 4 to 6 SM, with locations seeing visibilities falling to around 2 SM during periods of heavy rain. These lower visibilities have already occurred near the Ketchikan airport as rain rates increased. Along with heavy rain, strong winds and LLWS quickly approached the area with this front. Wind gusts around 30 to 40 kts are likely to continue over the southern panhandle through the TAF period. The central panhandle will also seethese strong gusts, lasting into Thursday evening. Similarly LLWS will continue with wind speeds around 35 to 45 kts at 2000 ft. Behind the initial front, a brief break in heavy rainfall may be possible for the southern panhandle before second surge of moisture and winds move into the panhandle early Friday morning. This could allow for a few locations to see a brief period of VFR ceilings before this disturbance move across the area. That being said, most locations are likely to remain MVFR during that time. && .MARINE... Inside(Inner Channels): Winds have picked up to the 25 to 35 kt range with strongest winds over CLarence strait, Chatham Strait and out Icy Strait and Cross Sound. Bumped Cross Sound to Gale force this morning with east gales. The next tailing low to move to the southern panhandle, looks to mover inland near the Northern Prince of Wales island then over south central panhandle to souther Stephen Passage as it falls part. Think that will will be burst of gales friday Morning of the Clarence Strait are, and as teh remain of the filling low heads north, I tried to include a wind push as it moves north, I tried to add to the grid to about the Juneau are. Will be able to fine the winds when they pick up. Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gale force winds Late Wednesday evening over the gulf waters moving into the coastal regions of the panhandle. 25 to 35 kt winds have pushed into and then out of parts of the inner channels. the old low is West southwest of Kodiak island just south of the Alaska Peninsula. This low is expected slowly weaken then then move towards the by the weekend. Winds over the look to be less that 25 kt as the old low moves east, helping to spread in some more showers to the panhandle of the Later tonight as the front gets closer to the panhandle during the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY.../Wednesday night through Friday morning/ A strong incoming atmospheric river will move into the panhandle beginning early Thursday morning and continuing through Friday morning. Two distinct frontal features make up a bulk of the heavy rain for the central and southern panhandle: The first during Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon, and the next Thursday evening into Friday morning. Confidence for the precipitation amounts and gusty conditions following into Thursday night has increased, with guidance narrowing in on an area extending from Petersburg and Wrangell down to Ketchikan and Metlakatla. IVT values look to range between 500-750 kg/ms, with more confidence on the area moving into the panhandle leaning towards 750 kg/ms for both waves, with the second wave still appearing to push from the south into the southern panhandle. Ketchikan and Metlakatla continue to be the target of opportunity here, with rain rates possibly exceeding 0.3 inches per hour, and up to 0.25 inches elsewhere. These rates are expected to be sufficient enough for at least minor flooding on small creeks and streams, particularly given the duration of the event. Alongside these heavy rainfall amounts looking to be around 5 year return intervals for the southern panhandle, the increased confidence on elevated winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40-50 mph associated with the second wave brings the possibility of isolated landslides occurring in areas south of Frederick Sound. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ322. Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ323-325-327- 328. Flood Watch from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through Friday afternoon for AKZ326>330-332. Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ329-330-332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ644-663-664-671-672. Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031-034-036-641>643-651-652-661-662. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-032-033-035-053. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bezenek LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...EAB MARINE...Bezenek HYDROLOGY...Contino Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  147 FXUS61 KLWX 151400 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 1100 EDT. Tweaked temperatures to account for slower warming this morning, as well as PoPs to reflect showers anticipated along the southeastern portions of the area. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Strong cold front to bring threat of severe weather and gusty winds Friday, then much colder air surges in. - 2) Frost and freezing temperatures possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong cold front to bring threat of severe weather and gusty winds Friday, then much colder air surges in. A passing cold front pushing to the south will bring widespread clouds and passing showers today, though most of the shower activity is likely to be on the light side. Temperatures will remain in the 60s this afternoon, then drop to the 50s tonight. Surface high to our north slides offshore this evening which is going to cause winds over the Mid-Atlantic to veer southerly tonight. The frontal surface mostly washes out by Friday morning as an area of low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into Ontario. Warm conditions return Friday as sunshine and southwest winds push highs back up to the low to mid 80s. Models continue to slow the arrival of our next cold front. The leading edge of the front, with its associated line of showers and thunderstorms, is now progged to cross the area Friday late afternoon to evening. The later arrival also allows for more instability to develop, which will act to fuel stronger thunderstorms. Sufficient shear should support an organized like of convection, with embedded severe thunderstorms. While damaging wind gusts are going to be the primary threat, a quick QLCS tornado spin-up is certainly possible. SPC has added a Slight Risk across the northern Shenandoah Valley to northern MD, with a Marginal Risk covering the rest of the forecast area. This line of thunderstorms pushes east of the area late Friday evening, but the main upper trough lags far behind. The system becomes more anafrontal Friday night into Saturday morning, with overrunning showers and breezy conditions. The positively tilted upper trough finally swings through Saturday afternoon, with conditions drying out from northwest to southeast. Due to the less amplified nature of the upper trough we probably don't reach Wind Advisory criteria, even in the mountains. Still, gusty conditions with peak gusts around 30-40 mph likely Saturday afternoon. The biggest story is going to be the much colder airmass that settles over the region. Highs Saturday only reach the mid to upper 50s as strong cold advection persists behind the cold front. KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost and freezing temperatures possible this weekend. A sharp transition to cold weather is expected behind a strong cold front this weekend. This dry airmass in combination with clearing skies and weakening winds Saturday night creates an ideal environment for efficient radiational cooling conditions throughout the area. Overnight temperatures could drop to near or below freezing west of the Blue Ridge on Saturday and Sunday night. Most areas across our region have opportunities for frost to form, particularly west of I-95. Daytime temperatures could struggle to even reach into the high 50s this weekend, noticeably cool for Mid- October high temperatures. For added context, the mountains typically have their first freeze October 11, Shenandoah Valley area October 21, and east of the Blue Ridge November 1. To start off next week, high pressure builds and remains overhead through next Wednesday. A dry and benign weather pattern is expected during this time frame. Next week, daytime temperature gradually warm, returning to near normal fall conditions. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front passing south of the region today is going to produce widespread clouds with passing showers. MVFR then eventually IFR CIGs develop from west to east, with CHO beginning the earliest. The IFR CIGs are most likely this evening into tonight, then CIGs improve and VFR conditions return after sunrise Friday. A strong cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon, then a reinforcing cold front moves through Saturday morning. A line of showers and thunderstorm along the front could bring brief sub-VFR conditions and strong wind gusts. Overrunning showers and low clouds are possible Friday night into Saturday morning, then conditions quickly return to VFR after sunrise Saturday. Strong northwest winds behind the front could gust up to 25-30 knots Saturday afternoon. Winds quickly diminish Saturday evening as high pressure builds overhead. Winds quickly weaken by Sunday remaining light through the beginning of next week. VFR conditions are expected for all terminals during this period with variable winds on Sunday become predominantly southerly by Monday. && .MARINE... A brief surge of north to northeast winds expected through this afternoon, with winds around 10-15 knots. Some gusts around 20 knots are possible through this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect until 1100 AM this morning during the period of peak wind gusts. Winds diminish this evening and turn south. Southerly channeling likely produces SCA conditions across all the waters by early Friday afternoon. A line of showers and thunderstorms is likely to move across the waters Friday evening. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts over 35-40 knots. Winds turn northwest behind a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday. Gale conditions are possible during this time, especially over the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay. Regardless, hazardous marine conditions with peak gusts around 25-30 knots. Winds start to slowly diminish Saturday night, but still gust around 20-25 knots. SCA-level wind conditions could linger Sunday morning before subsiding below SCA criteria by Sunday evening and into next week. Northeasterly winds on Sunday shift east to southerly on Monday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRR/SRT/KVH AVIATION...KRR/SRT/KVH MARINE...KRR/SRT/KVH  198 FXUS61 KGYX 151418 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1018 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Low pressure crosses Friday through Friday night bringing beneficial rainfall. 2. Cold temperatures and strong winds arrive for Saturday, with winter-like wind chills. Moderating temperatures from Sunday into next week with rain-free conditions. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure races across New England today, exiting to the southeast this evening. The timing will bring one more dry and mild day today before conditions turn more damp and cold into the weekend. Rain remains on schedule for Friday, pushing across the area west to east in the morning. This will be associated with low pressure that most model guidance agrees will pass along or just NW of the US/CAN border. The positively tilted trough across the Great Lakes will ensure the low is progressive, pushing into the Canadian Maritimes shortly after midnight Friday night. Rain continues to be the primary precip type for the forecast area as the system passes to the north. There is the chance for some flurries to mix in across the higher western ME mountains early Friday morning, but this should quickly transition to rain for the day. Ensemble IVT values are impressive, albeit briefly, Friday afternoon. Greater than 750 kg/m/s is likely per both the GEFS and ENS. Combined with the jet dynamics and PWATs that near the 90th percentile for early/mid Oct, can't rule out a period of moderate to heavy rainfall rates. The tricky part is location, as global models poorly represent how rain transits the region as far as intensity goes. It is also possible a dry slot bisects periods of rain or showers. For now this seems like the better solution given QPF totals that have only slightly increased through the week, totaling 0.5 to 1 inch. Without better instability to take advantage of the plume of moisture, precip may be focused along features associated with the low (fronts, fgen, etc). A better grasp on precip presentation will come with the short term guidance window arriving. It then becomes more showery Friday night with cold air moving in allowing for a transition to snow showers in the mountains. As temperatures continue to cool into Saturday morning, snow will likely make it to the valley floors across the north. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Strong cold air advection arrives on Saturday with plummeting temperatures. Very confident we will see 850 mb temperatures drop to -7 to -9 C. Even with mixed low-levels, this translates to surface temperatures only in the 40s-near 50 for the coastal plain, with 30s in the higher terrain. Combined with strong winds during the day on Saturday, wind chills will be in the 20s-30s regionwide! Those with outdoor plans this weekend should dress for winter conditions. Conditions will be potentially hazardous for hikers in high terrain. Strong northwest winds, combined with lingering boundary layer moisture and steep low-level lapse rates, will provide a setup for upslope snow showers in the mountains. A few flakes are possible in the foothills too. The other headline will be strong post frontal winds Saturday. Wind speeds at 850 mb are on the order of 30-40 kts. Mixing should be rather deep, so despite not particularly intense wind fields aloft, should see a good bit of this reach the surface, especially in the higher terrain. Gusts to 30 mph can be expected region-wide with gusts to 40 mph in the foothills, and much stronger winds above treeline. The weather turns far more tranquil from Sunday onward. After a very cold Saturday night (with lows bottoming out in the 20s-low 30s regionwide), temperatures start a steady moderating trend. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern for at least early to midweek next week, but models are indicating that low pressure likely begins to organize to our south during this timeframe, and will be worth monitoring through the forecast period. Temperatures look to be seasonable to potentially mild for this stretch with daytime 50s-60s. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through tonight...Occasionally gusty northwest winds continue behind a cold front thru midday then winds diminishing. Upslope clouds will linger around MVFR thresholds north of the mtns for the next hour or so then VFR conditions expected thru tonight. Towards Fri morning some MVFR may begin to work in as rain approaches the area. Outlook... Friday-Friday night: Widespread IFR and rain are likely. Rain should taper off Friday night with improvement to MVFR or VFR. HIE may see lingering rain showers switch to snow showers with IFR or MVFR. Saturday: Rain and snow showers likely at HIE to bring MVFR/IFR. Elsewhere VFR, although it's possible a few showers make it downwind of the mountains. It also looks breezy with west to northwest winds of 30 kts possible. Sunday-Monday: Mainly VFR with daytime wind gusts 10 to 15 kts. No sig wx. && .MARINE... High pressure quickly slides over the waters today, before inland low pressure tracks along the St Lawrence Valley Friday. Increasing onshore winds are expected Friday morning with gusts to 30 kts through the afternoon and building waves 3 to 5 ft. Winds become NW Friday night, increasing to around Gale for at least the outer waters through Saturday. Winds and wave heights will slowly subside Saturday night into Sunday, returning to below SCA conditions for the beginning of next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Cornwell AVIATION...Legro  469 FXAK68 PAFC 151428 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 628 AM AKDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Discussion: Moderate to heavy rainfall has been ongoing overnight across Kodiak Island with light to moderate rainfall for areas further north along the eastern kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound as a nearly stacked upper level low off southern AKPEN Gulf-side coast. Several perturbations embedded in the flow around the low have allowed for rounds of rain to move northward over the Gulf bringing these heavier rain showers to the coastal areas. Some of these showers have spilled over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains, but these have been pretty isolated and light. The parent low will start to weaken today as the long-wave trough shifts east over the Gulf as ridging begins to build eastwards over the Bering Sea. Once of these perturbations have become more defined on satellite imagery as the surface low and associated front lift towards the Gulf coast. Strong winds of gale to storm force have developed over the northern coastal waters this morning as the front nears...with gusty winds moving into the immediate inland coastal areas. The front will then continue to lift into inland Southcentral through the day. Precipitation will have a better chance of spilling over the mountains with the passage of the front with a period of light rain for the western Kenai Peninsula, then up into Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valleys, and the southern Copper Basin. Periods of snow will be possible at higher elevations with snow levels fluctuating between 2500 ft to 4000 ft along the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. Favored gap flow winds will increase as the gradient tightens in response to these perturbations moving through. The upper trough will slowly translate eastwards the remainder of the week before reaching the Panhandle this weekend. As such, the unsettled weather pattern will continue with more intermittent showers for inland Southcentral and more continuous rainfall along the coast. - PP && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Surface observations and satellite imagery overnight through 4:00 am today showed rain and cloud cover from the quasi-stationary North Pacific low south of Chignik continues to cover the Southwest Mainland to the Central Aleutians. Clouds over the Mainland and the Alaska Peninsula will continue to move southeast to northwest bringing mostly rain to the area through tomorrow afternoon. As the low moves into the Gulf of Alaska, cooler air filters into the Mainland beginning late Friday afternoon. It continues into early Saturday morning resulting in rain mixing with snow. A trace to an inch of accumulation is possible by Saturday morning. Cloud cover in the Central and Eastern Aleutians, moved south and southwest, driven by north and northeasterly winds, brought rain to the region yesterday through 4:00am today. This wind flow will persist through tomorrow bringing continued periods of rain and, late Friday evening / Saturday morning snow, to the region as the aforementioned low slowly moves into the Gulf of Alaska. Wind gusts in the Central Aleutians, from Kind Cove to Unimak Pass, range from 40 mph to 50 mph into tomorrow morning. The strongest winds will be this morning and also through the bays and passes. Weak ridging moves across the Central Aleutians tomorrow reaching the Mainland late Saturday morning. In its wake, a trough forms in the Western Aleutians bringing a series of weak lows through the Bering. These will allow for continued rain and southerly winds from the Western Aleutians to the AK Pen to start the weekend. -Johnston &&.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... High confidence exists in a brief drying trend across Southcentral on Sunday as lingering Gulf troughing is absorbed by a system shifting into the panhandle. Farther west, ensemble guidance suggests a frontal boundary advancing into the Bering Sea on Sunday, bringing a 50% to 70% chance of rain and elevated winds across the Aleutians; however, confidence remains low regarding the exact spatial placement and track of this boundary. Forecast spread increases heading into early next week, though clusters consistently favor a potent North Pacific low tracking south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula late Sunday into Monday. There is moderate-to-high confidence in gusty, potentially gale-force winds and steady rain impacting the Nikolski and Unalaska corridors early Monday. As deep moisture lifts northward ahead of the system, precipitation chances increase rapidly across Southcentral as early as Sunday night. The potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall remains highest from Kodiak and the northern Gulf coast through Monday, though specific rain totals will ultimately hinge on the system's exact track. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period, however, there is a chance that a period of light rain later this afternoon and evening could bring a brief reduction in visibility. Otherwise, LLWS concerns will develop this morning and continue into the afternoon hours as northerly surface winds will be overrun by strong cross-barrier (easterly) winds higher up. && $$  897 FXAK69 PAFG 151438 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 638 AM AKDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... -A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Dalton Highway Summits and Eagle Summits. Gusty winds at about 30 to 40 mph along with snowfall could reduce visibility to 1/2 of a mile. *The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 am Thursday to 10 am Saturday. -Isolated and scattered snow showers are possible throughout the day, leading to some possible accumulations. Gusty winds along with falling snow could result in lower visibility in higher elevations. *Snowfall accumulations are likely to be up to 1 inch south and east of Fairbanks, with up to 3 inches possible in elevated areas north of Fairbanks. -Cooler conditions are expected towards this weekend, as a cold front moves through dropping highs into the low 30s, and lows in the upper teens/low 20s. West Coast and Western Interior... -Rain/snow showers are expected to continue, with low stratus, and patchy morning fog throughout the week. -Gusts could reach up to 35 mph for most of the West Coast through Thursday, rapidly weakening Friday evening. -As the cold front moves through this weekend, temperatures are expected to drop to lows in the upper teens and highs in the lower 20s for the Western Interior, and lows in the 20s, with highs in the 30s for the West Coast. North Slope and Brooks Range... -Snow and gusty winds could create periods of blowing snow, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to the Eastern North Arctic Coast from 4pm Thursday to 4pm Friday. *Wind gusts could reach 40 mph. *Total snowfall accumulations are expected to be up to 1 inch by Friday. -Light snow could move into the Eastern Brooks Range Thursday night, and then track to the North Slope/Arctic Coast Friday afternoon, and persist through the weekend *1 to 3 inches of snow expected, with higher terrain seeing higher amounts. -Wind gusts will pick up Thursday, with them peaking at about 35 to 40 mph on Friday, rapidly weakening into Saturday morning. *Visibility may be restricted due to the development of fog. && .SYNOPSIS... A gulf low will approach Mainland Alaska Thursday morning, and with it bring gusty winds throughout the Interior of about 30 mph that last through Saturday. Along with gusty winds, showery snowfall is expected with this system, with higher accumulations focused to higher elevations. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Dalton Highway Summits, Eagle Summits, and the Eastern Arctic Coastline due to the possibility of visibility reaching 1/2 of a mile due to blowing snow. Another low is expected to move into the Bering Sea early next week, bringing with it more chances for snow across the Interior. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The short term begins with a weak ridge over the Eastern portion of Alaska. Just southeast of this ridge, a 972mb low circulates in the Western Gulf of Alaska. As the low begins to approach southern Alaska on Thursday it will rapidly weaken the sustained ridge, and send a series of shortwaves through the Interior while the ridge subsides. As this system progresses on Thursday, it will bring snow showers throughout most of the Interior, as well as gusty winds of about 35 mph to higher elevation above 1500ft. The combination of the snow and winds can result in lower visibility to elevated portions of the interior to about 1/2 of a mile. Thursday evening/Friday morning, northeasterly gusty winds will be spread towards the North Arctic Coastline, peaking at about 30mph on Friday morning. At the same time, a consistent light snowfall is expected, which could result in blowing snow, reducing visibility. As the storm in the gulf continues its approach on Friday, it will progressively weaken to a 990mb low by the evening hours, with most of the winds associated with this storm weakening with it. As the storm dissipates, it will leave a trapped moisture within the Interior. At the same time a cold front, from the arctic, will develop, orient itself parallel to the West Coast, and progress east. The remaining moisture from the previous storm, will be directly in the path of the cold front. This will provide the front with enough moisture to produce another round of snowfall that will persist in the Interior throughout the end of the week. Total snowfall accumulations are expected to be about 1 to 3 inches in most areas, with localized higher amounts in higher elevations. The greatest uncertainties with this storm involve its specific location within the Gulf of Alaska. The ECMWF ensemble has been demonstrating this system trending further to the Western portion of the Gulf. This would result in most of the snowfall associated with this storm getting chinooked by the Alaska Range, which in turn, would reduce the snowfall accumulation totals in the Tanana Valley. However, the GFS ensemble shows more spread in the position of this system, with some members trending more southeasterly then the ECMWF ensemble. If this solution proves true, there would be more opportunity for wrap around precipitation to occur and allow higher snowfall totals in the Tanana Valley. Currently, between model runs, the GFS ensemble has shown more of a change in trend and spread on this storms development. With previous runs suggesting more of the lows in the Western Gulf phasing with the lows in the East, while the most recent runs seem to not indicate that outside of a few members. The actual strength of the storm has also been shifting between runs, which lowers confidence with the GFS ensembles solution. However, the ECMWF ensemble demonstrates better agreement between model runs, where it becomes difficult to spot major changes when comparing the most recent runs to previous ones. Given these solutions, it would seem that most of the snowfall in the short term will likely be a result of the cold front moving through Alaska on Friday. Cooler temperatures throughout most of the state are expected during this upcoming weekend in the wake of this cold front, with lows in the south of the Brooks Range dropping to the lower 20s, and highs in the lower 30s. While areas north of the Brooks Range are expected lows in the lower teens, and highs in the low to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended begins with a new low developing in the Bering Sea. On monday, this system will travel eastward towards the West Coast. However, as this system begins to follow this path, another low will approach from the Pacific. The Bering Sea low will then interact with the approaching Pacific low and phase into a combined new low pressure system by Monday night. However, following Monday night, there is model uncertainty on this storms track. According to the ECMWF ensemble solution, this system will track northeast through Alaska on Tuesday, and leave through the Northeast Arctic Coast Wednesday evening. The most recent GFS ensemble run shows this storm moving eastward over Bristol Bay, and rapidly weakening in the Gulf of Alaska through Wednesday. If the ECMWF ensemble solution verifies, then we will potentially see another round of snowfall for the West Coast and Interior, while the GFS ensemble solution will be much drier. This system's track will determine the impacts for the extended period, and until more model consensus is reached, the exact impacts remain unclear. Coastal Hazard Potential...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AK...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ804-805. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ832-834. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-802-806- 811-816-817-850-851-853-854-857. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ803-804-852. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ807-814. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ812-815-858-860. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ861. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ861. && $$ SFD