235 FXUS63 KIWX 151700 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 100 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain possible today, mainly west of I-69. - There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms (mainly wind) along and south of US Route 24 this evening. Confidence in severe weather is low. - Turning much cooler and windy for Friday with some lake effect rain showers expected. Watching for frost chances, which appear the most possible Sunday morning, but Saturday morning's chances cannot be ruled out. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure slides eastward this morning across the northern Great Lakes. This allowed drier air to seep into the area behind the slowly southward-moving cold front from Wednesday. This front quickly turns around into a northward-moving warm front today as a deep upper low forces a surface low northward along the western extension of the baroclinic zone down to the Southern Plains. So, the attention turns to the timing of the surface warm sector's arrival to see if we can get surface-based or only elevated convection. The GFS still has areas of large scale ascent moving through the area this afternoon whereas the ECMWF appears to have most of the better lift moving north of the area. The drier the low levels can get and maybe lesser cloud cover before sunrise would be better for instability formation. Indications in both the NAM and the HRRR are that the surface warm front waits until 2 to 4z to get into our southern 1 to 2 rows of zones, which would allow a short time period (1 to 3 hours?) for surface-based convection after that. The main ingredient of concern is the shear, which the HRRR indicates has around 45 kts of EBWD shear. Now, because the low levels up to 850 mb are essentially saturated, LCLs are sub-1000m, but instability is 500 J/kg or below. So, perhaps there could be some shallow supercells or cells with embedded rotation. With the moist PWATs around 1.8 inches, heavy rain rates could occur, but cell motions are rather fast likely limiting overall flood threat; that and the fact that we've been dry for so long. The other possibility would be a moisture loaded core- collapsing damaging wind threat, but that weak of instability may also limit that threat. The cold front slides through overnight meaning the rain threat is out of the area by 12z Friday. The aforementioned upper low is squeezed northeastward out ahead of a diving upper low from Canada. On it's back side is a strong 1040 mb surface high indicative of relatively cold air that its bringing with it. This brings in a couple of hazards that we'll get to describing here including lake effect rain, gusty winds, and potentially a frost chance. For the lake effect rain, the lake needs to get some instability going first as well as low level convergence and a return of low level moisture behind the cold front. Northwest wind convergence combines with these features around 12z Friday and would expect the intensity of lake enhancement to increase through around 18z when the vigorous vort max swings through. Given lake temps of 62 degrees, BUFKIT NAM soundings indicate 15 to 25 degree delta T values with tall lake induced inversions during the afternoon. However, there are indications that dry air begins to work into the low levels during the evening hours after the low level trough moves through and trajectories go more northerly. Low level moisture moves out of the area and there are indications that rain subsides by 12z Saturday, but could see lake effect clouds lingering Saturday morning, especially in the west. Then, northwest winds swinging through Friday evening gust between 30 and 40 mph, highest along the surface trough, which could bring downa stray 45 mph gust. Now, the cold air coming in Friday night has 850 mb temps down to -2C 12z Saturday morning before warming ensues. The pressure gradient slackens overnight into early Saturday morning and cloud cover also dissipates overnight bringing some questions about how scattered out clouds can be east of US-31. Given forecast lows securely in the 30s Friday night, we'll have to watch for frost chances then, but wind and cloud cover complicate chances. A dry day continues on Saturday and surface high pressure overhead continues to keep the area calm wind-wise. Which allows a second opportunity for frost Saturday night as the core of the cold air lifts northeastward. Forecast lows dip down into the 30s again, but an increased gradient attempts to enter from the north. This appears to be the only complication for another frost attempt Saturday night. Looking ahead, even over the next 2 to 3 days, anomalous high pressure building near Greenland causing blocking to build peaks during the 16th to 21st of October. This is about the time that the NAO/AO dips negative. Meanwhile, the aforementioned baroclinic zone has pushed eastward potentially stalling along the eastern seaboard and forming an upper low or continuing to push eastward. Either way, this allows a sprawling area of high pressure to remain across the area until at least around Thursday of next week and potentially even longer keeping dry air overhead. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low pressure over far northern MO this afternoon slowly lifts northeast through the TAF period. Disorganized area of showers ahead of a warm front is slowly approaching from the SW. The inherited PROB30 -TSRA remains on track. Questionable instability limits confidence in thunder at both KSBN and KFWA. A period of IFR to even LIFR ceilings are favored at KSBN as the low's centroid moves near the terminal. Wind veers and quickly increases in speed during the overnight. Lake effect rain showers occur just beyond this TAF period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Brown  508 FXUS65 KBOU 151704 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1104 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - First freeze of the season expected over most of the plains tonight. - Chilly but dry/sunny weather Friday, with another freeze north and east of the Denver metro area Friday night. - Mainly dry and warmer for the weekend through the middle of next week. - Next storm system will arrive late next week with an increasing chance of showers and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/... Issued at 1103 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Clouds were starting to break up, and clearing will continue through the rest of the day. Cold/dry advection will continue through tonight, leading to the season's first freeze across most if not all of the plains and I-25 Corridor. That's despite a light breeze that will remain over the eastern plains. We expect overnight lows to be mostly in the mid to upper 20s across the plains, with upper 20s and lower 30s along the I-25 Corridor (warmest over the western Denver suburbs). Despite a return to full sunshine on Friday, temperatures will remain quite chilly and several degrees below normal. High temperatures will stick mostly in the mid to upper 50s over the plains. It will be cold again Friday night, with another freeze and mid to upper 20s over the low lying areas of the plains, but some warming along the downslope areas of the I-25 Corridor. This weekend will turn warm again as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Central Rockies Saturday, and then warm southwest flow occurs on the back side of the ridge Sunday. Highs should mostly reach the 70s across the plains. In the mountains, we can't rule out a weak shower or two Sunday afternoon as a touch of mid level moisture returns. Southwest flow strengthens through the middle of next week as a deep trough of low pressure moves down the Pacific Coast. That keeps us in a warmer than normal pattern, but a chance of showers will return mostly for the high country. We are watching the arrival of the next storm system for the latter portions of the week, when the West Coast trough pushes east across the Rockies. Ensemble systems overall keep the highest probabilities (50-70%) of 1" or more of liquid equivalent from the northern mountains into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle, and remain relatively light over the I-25 Corridor and plains. However, there are a few outliers that bear watching as the trough does have an opportunity to become negatively tilted. It's just that for now the majority of the ensembles support the storm track and heavier precipitation swath staying just staying just to our north. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/... Issued at 501 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ceilings this morning are bouncing between LIFR, IFR, and MVFR. Fog seems to have mostly cleared the area, with all TAF sites at P6SM this morning. Ceilings will continue to bounce between flight categories through the morning, with KDEN remaining ILS. Light showers are moving into the TAF sites, with showers on and off through roughly 17Z or 18Z today. Skies will clear behind the showers bringing VFR and visuals back to the TAF sites by the early afternoon. Winds will increase out of the north starting around 14Z, with gusts of 24kts to 30kts. Winds will weaken between 22Z and 00Z. Winds will become light and variable for the evening. Models are hinting at the potential for some stronger winds around 06Z from the northeast, but there's quite a bit of uncertainty on if those winds will actually mix down to the surface or not. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ038>051. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...AP  560 FXUS64 KOHX 151705 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1205 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Unseasonably warm weather continues today with record highs likely. - A cold front will arrive on Friday, bringing very low rain chances and much cooler temperatures. - There are no rain chances in Middle Tennessee after Friday. Drought conditions are therefore expected to worsen at least in the near-term. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A warm front remains situated to the immediate north of Middle Tennessee. There are a few radar echoes showing up across Kentucky, but rain chances across the mid state are negligible. A strong cold front is expected to blast through the region tomorrow and bring significantly cooler temperatures. Despite the strong temperature gradient between air masses, only low rain chances and minuscule rainfall amounts are expected with tomorrow's fropa. Indeed, the cold front will come through dry for most locations. But the temperatures that await on the other side are going to feel marvelous. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 While we're looking at one more day of record-breaking warmth today, many spots are likely to wake up to frost Sunday morning, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau and other traditional "cool spots" around the area. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across Middle Tennessee well into next week. Temperatures will warm up gradually after this weekend, but we don't expect to stray too far above seasonal norms even by the end of the week. Meanwhile, after Friday, there are no more weather-producing systems coming our way any time soon. Therefore, the worsening drought conditions that we are experiencing will continue to worsen, at least in the near-term. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail through this evening with SCT to BKN mid- level clouds and southwesterly winds around 5 to 10 knots. A cold front approaches CKV around 10Z, and it will continue to track east across Middle TN through the morning. This front will result in gusty northwesterly winds around 20 to 25 knots. Clouds will also lower with the front, bringing widespread MVFR cigs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 62 69 46 62 / 0 20 0 0 Clarksville 57 65 43 62 / 10 20 0 0 Crossville 62 73 41 54 / 0 20 20 0 Columbia 63 72 44 63 / 0 20 0 0 Cookeville 62 71 44 57 / 0 20 10 0 Jamestown 62 72 42 55 / 0 30 30 0 Lawrenceburg 63 73 44 61 / 0 20 0 0 Murfreesboro 64 72 45 63 / 0 20 0 0 Waverly 58 64 45 60 / 0 20 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Clements  616 FXUS65 KRIW 151706 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1106 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some lingering clouds into the afternoon but mostly sunny and remaining on the cool side. Breezy winds widespread, highest across Johnson County. - Clear and cold tonight, with lows in the 20s for all areas. Freeze Warnings have been issued for those are that have not already had a morning freeze. - Dry and milder through the upcoming weekend with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The H5 trough continues to exit to the southeast, and is gradually taking the clouds and precip with it. As of current writing time, the only remaining light rain is confined to Natrona County, and continues to draw to the southeast as well. Most light rain should be complete by 6AM, but light sprinkles may continue on Casper Mountain for a couple more hours. Skies will clear through the rest of the day, and with good cold air advection still in place, highs will struggle to reach the 50s. This will be accompanied by a modest northerly breeze, making for a brisk autumn day. Areas across Johnson County will hold some more of the influence of the sfc low gradient, so winds will be higher through the day, gusting 30 to 40 mph through the afternoon. Watch for cross winds along the I-90 corridor. Winds will die off quickly after sunset as high pressure sweeps in. This sets the stage for the first freeze of the season for most of the state. Most areas will fall into the 20s for several hours tonight. The only inhibiting factor may be enough of a breeze in the Wind River Basin to mix things enough to limit the overall timing of the freeze, but this airmass is cold enough to overcome most of this. Freeze Warnings are in effect tonight across central Wyoming, where freezing temperatures have not yet been reached. The main pattern this weekend is a broad H5 ridge across the Rockies, bringing moderating temperatures and deflecting the storm track back into southern Canada. The main impact will be which way the winds are from. Winds Saturday will be from the southwest, bringing the warmer air back into the region. Sunday a weather system passes across southern Canada, switching winds back from the north. While no cold air will return with these winds, it will be enough to bring temperatures back to near normal around 60 degrees. The next weather impact across western Wyoming still looking to be sometime Tuesday, when the ridge is broken down by a trough along the Rockies, bringing more moisture back from the southwest. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1105 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 There is high confidence in dry conditions through at least 18Z Friday. Clouds will gradually clear across Wyoming Thursday afternoon, with MVFR to low VFR clouds occurring at and around KCPR through 20Z. Breezy north winds at KCPR, KRIW, KRKS, and KWRL are expected through 01Z, at the latest, before becoming 12kts or less. Winds at all other terminals are forecast to be light (12kts or less) the entire TAF period. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of fog or low cloud development beginning around 12Z Friday at KJAC, KRIW, KRKS, KPNA, and KBPI. There is no mention in TAF at this time given the very low confidence. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ005-006-010-011-016>020-028>030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Gerhardt  761 FXUS62 KMFL 151709 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 109 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 105 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Scattered showers and storms today will focus mainly across Southwest Florida this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered activity expected for Southeast Florida mainly late morning through midday. - Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast across the region for the end of this week with maximum heat index values in the 100-105F range. - The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a forecast of windy and wet conditions for South Florida. && .UPDATE... Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No major changes to the near term forecast. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed around the lake region early this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity should increase mid to late afternoon into the early evening across SW FL along the Gulf coast sea breeze. Overnight conditions will be dry over most of South FL with some occasional coastal showers along the Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For the end of this week, surface high pressure will be set up over the western Atlantic to end the week along with a mid-level ridge propagating from the southeastern US to the offshore western Atlantic waters. This will occur in tandem with a synoptic scale trough amplifying across the central US. As a result of the mid- level high shifting further east, low-level and mid-level flow will shift southerly/southeasterly and usher in deeper tropical moisture (PWATs around 1.8-2 inches or slightly more) and provide ample moisture for the production of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. With the surface high pressure over the western Atlantic setting up an easterly wind regime across the area, the most widespread showers and storms should focus across SW Florida as the Gulf breeze gets pinned, while some isolated to scattered showers and storms form over the east coast metro areas mainly between late morning and midday. Some storms may contain stronger wind gusts and periods of heavy rainfall, but overall parameters are lacking in terms of strong convection potential as well as low flooding risk. However, an isolated occurrence of poor drainage urban flooding cannot be entirely ruled out. Flow will shift a little more southeasterly on Friday as the trough over the central US begins to advect towards the northeast US and pushes the ridge over the Southeast offshore. This southerly flow pattern will support ongoing deep moisture advection, and with low level out of a SE/ESE direction, the focus for showers and storms on Friday will be across both interior and SW Florida, and perhaps stretching into Palm Beach county with PoPs in these areas in the 70- 85% range. Flow will be a bit weaker on Friday compared to Thursday, so there will be a higher risk for flooding impacts on Friday. High temperatures for the end of this week will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Elevated moisture will keep dew points and corresponding heat index values elevated in the 100-105F range as well, posing moderate to major HeatRisk across the region as we typically don't see this level of heat this late in the season. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moving into the weekend, the speed of a propagating frontal boundary off of the trough that is swinging across the central and eastern US will be a big player in the amount of rainfall that we may see over the weekend. Ensembles plus much of the deterministic guidance are generally coming together at this point with the front pushing into central and perhaps the northernmost portions of the South Florida forecast area Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday. The steadiest rain would be expected directly ahead of the front, leading to the most widespread rainfall likely to occur on Saturday before the front pushes out the deeper moisture from portions of the region. Potential rainfall amounts are still heavily uncertain, but the latest 90th percentile 24-hour QPF is between 2-4" for Saturday and lower for Sunday, suggesting that even in a worst case scenario we may only need to be concerned for localized flooding. Nevertheless, we still need another day or two to get a more accurate perception of how much rain is possible in different time spans this weekend. Following the front stalling out late this weekend and into early next week, there is better agreement across the ensemble guidance that a steep pressure gradient will set up over the entire state of Florida, bringing with it a jump in easterly winds. The exact timing of the onset of winds here will be tied to the speed and direction of the high pressure system building behind the front which is not completely resolved yet, but less widespread rain is expected as we move into next week and extending into the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Easterly winds 10-15 kts this afternoon with a westerly afternoon Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gentle to moderate easterly winds are expected across the local waters for the end of this week. Winds will shift to the north/north- northeast and become strong over the weekend as frontal boundary approaches from the north. This will coincide with some northeasterly swell arriving. Seas to end the week will be generally in the 2-3 feet range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible each day as well, which can result in locally hazardous winds and elevated seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 90 77 88 / 30 50 30 90 West Kendall 78 90 77 88 / 20 50 20 90 Opa-Locka 79 90 77 88 / 30 50 30 90 Homestead 79 90 77 88 / 20 40 30 90 Fort Lauderdale 79 88 77 87 / 40 60 40 90 N Ft Lauderdale 79 89 77 87 / 50 60 40 90 Pembroke Pines 78 90 77 88 / 30 60 30 90 West Palm Beach 78 89 76 87 / 50 80 40 90 Boca Raton 78 88 77 87 / 50 70 50 90 Naples 75 89 76 84 / 30 50 60 80 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...CMF  739 FXUS63 KDTX 151709 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 109 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers expand into the area late afternoon and linger through early Friday morning. - A strong cold front delivers gusty winds and much chillier conditions Friday, with a scattered showers. Lake effect rain showers develop over the Thumb by evening. - Turning drier through the weekend with slightly warmer readings by Sunday. && .AVIATION... Expansive area of MVFR stratus entrenched throughout SE Michigan this afternoon, as moist low level easterly flow holds downstream of an inbound low pressure system. Deepening moisture depth will support an increase in shower coverage this evening, while bringing an accompanying reduction in cloud base to IFR with time through early tonight. Prevailing east/southeast wind this evening shifts to southwesterly with the passage of the low overnight. There remains a small window for a noted increase in wind magnitude off the surface to generate low level wind shear, but expectation remains for these winds to progressively translate into gusty surface conditions /20 to 25 knots/. Gusty westerly wind gradually veering to northwest Friday, with additional pockets of showers possible. Gradual improvement in cigs back into MVFR likely early in the day. Secondary stronger cold front arrives Friday afternoon and early evening, offering a brief increase in gust potential from the northwest, potentially in excess of 30 knots. D21/DTW Convection...Very low probability for an isolated thunderstorm to develop between 22z and 06z tonight. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through the TAF period. * Low for thunder 22z-06z tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 DISCUSSION... Influence of high pressure wanes over the course of the morning as it shifts into Quebec. As this occurs, the next weather maker takes shape over the Midwest as southern/northern stream waves phase resulting in developing low pressure near the upper-Mississippi. Associated surface warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley today with the elevated portions of the frontal slope lifting over southern lower MI. Actual activation of the slope however is delayed until late afternoon (~20-21Z) when lead vorticity/theta-e finally reaches the area favoring a greater coverage of moderate showers over the northern half of SE MI (north of M-59) through this evening. Secondary low feature along the occluding front over northern IN/OH remains present in higher res model output resulting in the surface warm front being confined on or just south of the Ohio border. An interesting potential outcome with instability being held south of the area and the main low track trending a touch further north towards the Saginaw Valley, is a corridor within the southern portions of the CWA (ranging somewhere from the M-59 to I- 94 corridors) of notably less shower development due to falling in between the areas of stronger forcing. This is scenario can be seen in the most extreme case in the NAM but a flavor of which is present in the ARW/HRRR. Areawide, general QPF is expected to range between 0.25-0.5" (highest north) though if the outcome above is realized, some locales could see only a tenth or so of rainfall. Low departs into southern Ontario by Friday morning tapering off the majority of activity over SE MI. Parent mid-upper trough slides across lower MI during the day bringing significantly colder air aloft as 500mb temps fall some 20 degrees into the mid -20's C. This ongoing cold advection within the diurnal window steepens lapse rates as passing trough influence supports modest upper divergence. While the bulk of moisture is east of the region by this point, moisture wrapping around the mature low as well as lake flux should result in pretty good coverage (scattered to numerous) convective showers by midday with peak coverage in the afternoon aided by a secondary cold front dropping through the state. This front marks the lead edge of the more robust CAA as 850mb temps fall from roughly +6C to -3C by evening. Lake surface temps currently hover in the mid teens C so more than enough delta T to spark lake effect rain showers. Winds turn north post-front favoring these bands to work across the Thumb and down into Metro Detroit- particularly the eastern half. For winds Friday, the gradient weakens following the low/initial cold front with lower level column wind within the mixed layer looking to support peak NW gusts up around 25kts (~30mph). This changes with the arrival of the secondary cold front late afternoon- evening, coincident with the passage of the trough axis, leading to a tightening gradient and column wind fields increasing towards 30- 35kts. Forecast soundings are favorable for sufficient mixing depths through the evening to tap into this flow to push peak N gusts to 35mph with 40mph likely along the Lake Huron shoreline. Gusty winds and lake effect wind down Friday night as surface high pressure over the Midwest beings to expand into the central Great Lakes. Overnight lows bottom out in the lower 30s with sub-freezing temperatures expected in areas north of I-69 though areas on the glacial moraine could also see temps drop below 32F. Below normal temperatures in place for Saturday as continuing north wind leads to highs struggling to reach the mid 50s. Surface ridge axis eventually crosses Saturday night as central CONUS upper ridging expands overhead setting up southerly, warmer return flow for the new week. Ridging influence holds through at least the first half of the week, if not longer, maintaining an extended period of dry weather and above normal temperatures with highs in the mid 60s. MARINE... High pressure migrates from the northern Great Lakes into New England today, causing easterly wind to veer southeast. The gradient strengthens with time as low pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley tracks northeast and into the central Great Lakes this evening. Showers expand in coverage from late afternoon into this evening and a few thunderstorms will be possible mainly near western Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair. As the deepening low center passes over lower MI overnight, a 45 to 55 kt southwesterly low-level jet will pass overhead near western Lake Erie. While profiles show strong low-level stability during this period which will hold most of the momentum aloft, potential exists for gusts to around 30 kt after midnight. A strong cold front will pass north to south across the region on Friday as the low departs to the east. Increasing instability and favorable fetch offer relatively high confidence to see northerly gusts to 35 to 40 knot gales on Lake Huron Friday afternoon and Friday night. A Gale Warning is in effect for all of Lake Huron. Will monitor the need to expand the warning into Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie, but confidence remains too low at this time. Gusty northwest wind backs to west-southwest by Saturday as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ361>363- 421-422-441>443-462>464. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....MR DISCUSSION...KDK MARINE.......TF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  754 FXUS64 KLUB 151709 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Periods of heavy rain and flash flooding remain possible overnight over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle. - Blustery north winds and cooler temperatures arrive Thursday and continue through Friday. - The first freeze of the season is possible for areas on the Caprock early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Current upper air analysis as of late Wednesday evening highlights a closed upper low positioned over central CO, with the shortwave disturbance responsible for earlier convection exiting to our northeast. Southwest flow aloft will persist over our area through the near term, and a secondary disturbance is visible on water vapor imagery near MAF at 03z which will lift northward towards our forecast area through the rest of tonight. The surface airmass remains cool and very humid, with southeasterly surface flow still in place ahead of a cold front still up in the northern TX Panhandle. Current expectation is for a lull in precip to continue through late this evening, with another round of mainly elevated storms developing near or after midnight as the aforementioned mid/upper level disturbance arrives and the SSW low level jet strengthens. Confidence is low in just how widespread this overnight storm activity will be, but the highest coverage is expected to be off the Caprock. These overnight storms are also expected to remain mostly sub-severe, although plentiful elevated instability may support a couple of instances of large hail. Of greater concern is the threat for additional flash flooding, especially over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle where a widespread 2 to 5 inches of rain fell earlier Wednesday. Have opted to extend the Flood Watch to remain in effect through Thursday morning for areas off the Caprock, given the saturated soils and risk of high rain rates and additional training storms overnight. PWATs remain exceptionally high for this time of year, so additional swaths of 1 to 2 inches of rain are certainly possible tonight off the Caprock if convection becomes widespread. A few heavy showers or storms are also possible along and west of I-27 overnight, but these should be less widespread. The cold front will make steady southward progress through Thursday morning, and is progged to be through most of the forecast area by mid-morning. The frontal passage should generally bring a gradual end to any lingering showers over much of the region, but we do expect scattered storms to continue along and ahead of the front itself through early afternoon. This could bring additional heavy rain to the southern Rolling Plains before precipitation finally ends by early evening. Otherwise, post-frontal north winds will be on the blustery side through much of the day, with much cooler temperatures expected as highs only reach into the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 As the cold front sweeps out of the area Thursday night taking rain chances with it, crisp autumn weather takes over on blustery north winds and much drier air. Low stratus initially in the post-frontal layer will scour out on Friday, but skies will be partly to mostly cloudy under a stubborn plume of high clouds. Even without the high clouds, high temps look capped in the 50s which sets the stage for a chilly night as the high clouds clear and north winds go calm. Latest MOS and NBM probs are trending colder everywhere with a light freeze not out of the question for much of the Caprock, which is 1-2weeks ahead of schedule for many locales. High temps remain below normal through the weekend under weak upper ridging before slowly recovering next week ahead of the next slow-moving upper low that is favored to direct another plume of subtropical moisture our way. Rain chances gear up by mid week and continue thereafter with near normal temps. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Showers continue at KCDS for the next couple of hours. Visibilities at KCDS will continue to vary as the intensity of rain oscillates. Showers are done at both KPVW and KLBB. However, MVFR ceilings prevail at all three TAF sites. These low ceilings are expected to clear out later this afternoon. Once the low ceilings clear, VFR conditions will prevail. A cold front pushed through the region this morning bringing strong northerly winds. Each TAF site can expect gusts up to 30-35 mph through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ025-026-031-032- 037-038-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...10  003 FXUS62 KFFC 151710 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 110 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions will prevail through the next 7 days with temperatures warming to well above normal today and tomorrow. - A strong cold front will bring noticeably cooler conditions and gusty winds this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 One final day of summer expected again today and tomorrow before we get a significant change in air mass. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s by early afternoon, with NW winds keeping humidity down. Temps will fall into the low 60s tonight before a nearly identical high temp is expected tomorrow. With high pressure settled over the area, winds continue to be on the light side at less than 5 mph. Some patchy fog this morning is expected to burn off by 10am. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Things will finally feel much more Fall-like to open the long term forecast period Friday night into Saturday morning as a sharp cold front will rapidly progress across the CWA. Gusty NW winds (likely gusts near/over 30 mph at times) will transition toward the north and northeast on Saturday as surface high pressure slips across the Mid-Atlantic. This frontal passage continues to look very dry with any isolated sprinkles/brief showers largely relegated to north Georgia, though these will be very limited in nature. By Saturday morning, temperatures will have fallen into the 40s across a good bit of north Georgia, a drop of nearly 40 degrees in some areas from Friday highs. Expect below-normal temperatures to persist through the weekend with highs mainly in the 60s each day and lows in the 40s for most (some 30s in the mountains) through Monday. A warming trend will then be underway by next week as midlevel ridging builds eastward with temperatures near to slightly above normal by midweek. Still, no notable rain chances are in the foreseeable future as surface high pressure will continue to build southwestward from New England through the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR at all sites. Light W wind at 3-6kts diminishes after 00z. Cold front approaches Friday, turning winds from W to WNW 7-10kts with gusts up to 20kts by 16-18z. Higher gusts possible after 18z. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence on all elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 90 63 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 88 65 84 52 / 0 0 10 10 Blairsville 86 60 79 43 / 0 0 10 10 Cartersville 90 62 84 48 / 0 0 10 10 Columbus 90 63 86 54 / 0 0 0 10 Gainesville 88 64 83 51 / 0 0 10 10 Macon 91 63 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 90 61 84 47 / 0 0 10 10 Peachtree City 89 62 85 49 / 0 0 10 10 Vidalia 89 65 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...07  935 FXUS64 KOUN 151710 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds possible this morning and afternoon, primarily south of I-40. - Multiple rounds of heavy rain expected between now and Thursday afternoon with an increasing flash flood risk. - Colder and drier airmass arrives late Thursday, with weather becoming cool and pleasant by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Thunderstorms are expected to continue through most of the day Thursday. Over the last 24 hours, several locations have received over 3 inches of rainfall. Locations across the I-40 corridor west of I-35, have received 6-12 inches of rain over the last 24 hours. Additional rounds of storms that move into these area will certainly exacerbate the flooding concerns. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches will be possible, especially if storms continue to train over the same area. As far as the severe concern through the morning, it will be limited to western north Texas and along the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma. The overall severe risk is low at this time. A strong cold front will sweep through the area Thursday, with gusty winds in the wake of the frontal boundary. High temperatures for the day will likely occur right ahead of the cold front. Additional thunderstorms are possible tomorrow ahead of the cold front, generally south of I-40. These thunderstorm chances will decrease from north to south with the frontal boundary push. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Much cooler temperatures are expected behind the aforementioned cold front. Overnight lows Friday morning will be in the 40s (north) and 50s (south). High temperatures Friday and Saturday will struggle to get above 60 F, as the cold air advection will continue during this timeframe. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s to upper 30s across the entire area. There is some signal for frost potential on Saturday morning across northern Oklahoma. Dry conditions are expected through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Colder temperatures will continue through the weekend, despite winds returning to southerly by Sunday. A warming trend will continue through the middle parts of the week, as mid-level heights increase. Dry conditions are also expected through the middle of the week as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 IFR conditions could linger into the late afternoon for some areas as the axis of showers and thunderstorms is slow to advance southeastward. LLWS will be a concern tonight into Friday morning as a surge of cold air pushes into the area. There is some uncertainty on how long IFR/MVFR conditions persist, but suspect it could trend longer into the overnight hours. Tomorrow morning, breezy north winds are expected with VFR ceilings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 47 58 39 59 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 48 60 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 51 61 40 61 / 40 0 0 0 Gage OK 42 57 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 45 58 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 54 64 44 65 / 80 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ008-012-013- 017>020-022>042-044>046-050. TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...01  978 FXUS64 KTSA 151710 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1210 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Thursday evening. - Gusty north winds behind a cold front tonight and Friday, with limited fire weather concerns across far southeast OK. - Much cooler and pleasant weather by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The overall threat of additional heavy rainfall has diminished this morning, though periods of mainly light to moderate rain will continue through this evening. Flood Watch will expire at 18z. Additional showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across northwest TX, and should expand more northeast with time as cold front moves into northeast OK later this afternoon and through the remainder of the local area this evening. The net effect will be for a gradual shift southeastward of the main axis of rainfall with time, with amounts gradually decreasing as the current tropical connection is ultimately pinched off. As a result the farther southeast you go, the less likelihood of significant rainfall, with far southeast OK seeing notably lighter rainfall amounts compared to the rest of the area. In addition the cold front will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass with gusty north winds, providing the first real taste of fall weather. Current data suggests wind gusts will be close to advisory levels, though mainly in the 30-35 mph range both tonight and much of Friday. Some traditionally windier locations will probably see a few gusts right around 40, but at this point do not anticipate widespread or prolonged gusts in that range. The winds will raise some degree of fire weather concerns Friday, especially in some of high terrain of far southeast OK where more persistent gusts likely, along with the decreased likelihood of wetting rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Wind speeds will eventually die down Friday evening with mostly clear skies. This will result in significantly colder overnight lows, potentially not far from freezing in some locations near the OK/KS border (20-30% probability of 32 or lower). Patchy frost could develop in sheltered areas, so tender vegetation may need some protection both Friday and Saturday nights. Temperatures will return more to normal levels by early next week then gradually rise above normal through mid-week with dry conditions. Next weather system will approach from the west, possibly by the end of next week or the weekend with rain chances returning. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms ongoing across NE OK will continue to lift northeastward through the morning with flight levels likely to be widely varying across the region. A lull in precip coverage is possible from late morning into mid afternoon before additional showers and scattered storms develop ahead of the approaching cold front. The front will sweep across the local area from late afternoon through late evening with winds becoming gusty. Post frontal ceilings are expected to become VFR conditions overnight with lower clouds likely spreading back across parts of the region beyond this forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 76 47 59 39 / 90 30 0 0 FSM 89 53 64 44 / 40 70 0 0 MLC 84 50 62 42 / 80 80 0 0 BVO 73 42 58 33 / 90 20 0 0 FYV 83 44 59 36 / 80 80 0 0 BYV 84 46 58 40 / 70 70 0 0 MKO 80 48 60 40 / 90 60 0 0 MIO 75 45 56 36 / 90 40 0 0 F10 78 48 59 39 / 90 50 0 0 HHW 88 54 64 44 / 20 50 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Okays>067-154-254- 354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...07  347 FXUS63 KGRR 151717 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 117 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Becoming wet, windy, and colder through Friday - Extended dry period with moderating temperatures next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Becoming wet, windy, and colder through Friday Everything remains on track for the evolution of our weather from today through Friday evening, with no major changes noted at this time. Plenty of clouds remain from the stratocumulus clouds that moved overhead on Wednesday. There are some breaks in this, but high clouds are widespread, and the holes in the lower clouds are filling in. We will see deep moisture advect over the area this afternoon as the strengthening low level jet associated ahead of the upper wave and developing sfc low will approach late this afternoon. It is with this feature that we will see the most widespread rain with this entire system. The sliver of instability (elevated in nature based between 850 and 700 mb) that may affect the I-94 corridor would also be maximized at that time. All of this would be through just before 06z when the low level jet peels away and the occluded front moves through. The next wave of showers will then come right ahead of the secondary cold front/cold conveyor belt that will surge in from the NW. This comes through centered around 12z Friday give or take a couple of hours depending on the northern or southern portion of the forecast area. This is associated at the leading edge of the upper trough and cyclonic flow arriving. The passage of these features will ultimately shift the mean low level flow to become from the NNE. Lake effect rain showers will be likely initially from the NW, and will shift offshore by late afternoon. It is from mid morning until the wind shifts offshore when the best chance of lake induced thunder will be possible with just short of 1,000 J/kg of CAPE available. Wind will be another aspect of this system. Right now, it looks like most places will see gusts to around 40 mph Friday. May just be short of advisory criteria inland, where instability will be a bit less than over the warmer waters. A few showers will remain possible inland through the daylight hours, and a few may linger into mid-evening. It will be shortly after 00z Saturday the the upper trough moves out, and the flow becomes anti-cyclonic. - Extended dry period with moderating temperatures next week Strong subsidence will build in quickly behind the departure of the upper trough by Saturday morning. The upper air pattern over the CONUS then transitions to a much more amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern from the West Coast to East Coast in almost an Omega block. The strong upper trough on Friday will close off along the East Coast, and strong energy moves toward the West Coast from the Pacific. This will place Michigan in between under the influence of the strong ridge. This means plenty of dry weather, with sunny days and cool nights. There will be attempts of short waves trying to flatten the ridge. It seems that the ridge should remain intact through at least mid-week. Later in the week, there have been indications that there may be a trough that tries to close off overhead next Thursday. Way too much uncertainty seven days out to try to pin down the details. Generally speaking, we will see above average temperatures, and below average precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 117 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No significant changes to the forecast other than adding detail to the first few hours and some time adjustments. Conditions will deteriorate over the next several hours to IFR and LIFR as showers and low clouds move in. A brief window of little showers and MVFR cigs is likely from 05z-08z before lake effect rain showers keep MVFR conditions in play, potentially IFR in heavier showers, continuing through the rest of the TAF period. A window of LLWS is expected for a few hours tonight as winds shift to westerly aloft, before increased gusts to 25-30 knots develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 We will be issuing a Gale Warning for the core of the upcoming wind/wave event, with a Small Craft Advisory on the front end of it from this evening through the beginning of the Gale Friday morning. Winds will increase quickly with the first surge of colder air late this evening, and overnight. The strongest of the winds will come with the deep colder air that arrives Friday morning. Very unstable conditions over the lake will allow all of the wind aloft to reach the sfc. Waves will build quickly also. After a break on Saturday with high pressure overhead, winds will increase once again Saturday night through Sunday night under a tight gradient from the high to our south, to a strong low across Canada. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...NJJ  346 FXUS63 KOAX 151717 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing chances for showers and storms tonight, peaking at 90%-100% through the morning. - Strong northerly winds gusting 40 to 50mph move in Friday after midnight through the morning weakening Friday afternoon. - Frost continues to look likely late Friday night into Saturday morning with calm winds and clear skies. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Cloudy skies across the region this evening with a few showers over northeast Nebraska. These showers have developed along a weak boundary stretching all the way northwest toward Rapid City. These will continue to move north-northeast. The system we are watching more closely is a strong upper-level trough over Colorado. This will bring the showers from western Kansas northeast into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa overnight as the closed low weakens and gets absorbed into a stronger upper- level wave dropping south out of Alberta/Saskatchewan. Rainfall will continue across our area through Thursday morning ending through the afternoon as strengthening northerly winds bring in dry air. Thursday night into early Friday we are monitoring the potential for strong winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. As the wave moving out of Canada phases with the decaying system over the Northern Plains, we see the ridge over the West Coast try and advance. This leads to strengthening of the pressure gradient over the Great Plains between these two systems. A broad swath of strong northerly winds develops over the region including eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. NBM guidance shows around a 60% chance of winds gusting above 45 mph over northeast Nebraska Friday morning. Could start as early as 3am, but more likely toward 6AM through 11am. Winds weaken going into Friday afternoon as the trough shifts eastward and the gradient starts to relax, though gusty winds will likely continue until around 6pm. With winds becoming calm, clear skies, and a much cooler Canadian air mass in place, conditions will be ideal for strong radiational cooling overnight Friday into early Saturday. We expect temperatures to fall into the low 30s with a fairly widespread risk for frost. Only spots that might not get cool enough for frost may be in our more urban areas of Omaha, Council Bluffs, and Lincoln. As the ridge continues to trek eastward across the central CONUS over the weekend, we'll see southwesterly flow move back in Saturday trending temperatures warmer over the weekend into next week. Meanwhile, the upper-level pattern remains active. A weak disturbance moves through on Monday, though there won't be enough moisture for more than an increase in cloud cover through the day. A stronger trough deepens along the West Coast early next week. This system will strengthen southwest flow as it approaches midweek bringing temperatures back into the low-to- mid 70s for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system brings our next chances for showers and storms Wednesday-Friday next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain bands continue to move across the region early this afternoon, resulting in visibility reductions to IFR or MVFR levels. IFR ceilings persist for another couple of hours at the terminals, with ceilings improving to MVFR around mid-afternoon as the rain tapers off. Expect winds generally out of the north to northwest, remaining stead at 15-25kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...ANW  377 FXUS64 KMAF 151719 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are expected through Friday across much of west Texas. A few storms may also become severe, posing a threat for mainly damaging winds and large hail this afternoon and evening. - A front tonight/Friday morning brings much cooler temperatures to the region through the weekend. - Tonight/Friday morning's front also brings breezy northeasterly winds to the area. High gap winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 An active weather pattern continues today and an upper level trough translates over the Rockies into the Central Plains. A few showers and storms are ongoing across portions of the eastern Permian Basin, the Lower Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend. Additional showers/storms are expected to develop through day today, as moisture accompanied by rounds of disturbances continue to move over our region within southwesterly flow aloft. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible over much of the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend throughout the day. The best chances for rainfall will be over our easternmost counties. The primary hazard with this next round of activity looks to be heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, especially in areas where soils are already saturated. Aside from rainfall, this storm system sends a cold front across the Plains. The front is progged to start entering our region this afternoon. The combination of rainy conditions, cloudy skies, and the cold front will result in highs in the 70s for most this afternoon, with 80s near and along the river valleys. Later this afternoon and into the evening, winds start to pick up behind the cold front as it surges southward. Breezy northeast winds are expected across much of the region. Strong gap winds are expected within the Guadalupe Mountains this evening and through most of the day Friday. As such, a High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupes from this evening through early Saturday afternoon, for gusts up to 70mph. Aside from elevated winds, cooler and drier conditions filter in behind the cold front. Rain chances taper off from north to south through the evening and overnight hours. A few showers and storms may still linger around the Big Bend region Friday morning before clearing out by the afternoon. Given the best moisture will hover near the Big Bend this evening and tonight, the threat of flash flooding will remain for this part of our region. Behind the cold front, temperatures early Friday morning will fall to the 40s and 50s. The coldest lows are expected within the Davis Mountains, where temperatures look to slip into the mid to upper 30s. Breezy conditions persist through late Friday afternoon, with highs topping out in the 50s to 60s (40s in the higher terrain). && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Heading into Friday night and Saturday morning, upper level ridging takes hold across the Southern Plains. Winds begin to decrease and skies begin to partially clear. Lows settle into the 30s and 40s areawide. A few of the coldest spots in the mountains may reach near freezing, briefly Saturday morning before warming back up into the 50s and 60s. Sunday morning will be about as chilly Saturday morning and that will begin a gradual warmup into the early part of next week. Highs move into the 70s with morning lows in the 50s for Monday and Tuesday. Low(10-20%) rain chances move into the area from the west during that time, but beyond Friday, much of the long term forecast is mainly dry. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 KMAF, KFST, and, to a lesser extent, KPEQ will bounce in and out of MVFR cigs this afternoon and overnight as bouts of convection move through the area as a cold front pushes south. KINK/KCNM/KHOB should remaIN VFR. Expect gusty winds after fropa through the end of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 52 60 39 60 / 40 0 0 0 Carlsbad 54 64 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 52 59 43 59 / 100 50 0 0 Fort Stockton 49 58 39 57 / 90 20 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 47 54 38 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 48 59 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 41 51 34 54 / 80 40 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 52 59 40 58 / 30 0 0 0 Odessa 52 59 40 58 / 30 0 0 0 Wink 54 62 40 59 / 20 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning from 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Flood Watch through Friday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to midnight MDT Friday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Friday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...99  481 FXUS63 KAPX 151720 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 120 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainy this afternoon through Friday. Windy and cooler temperatures Friday. - Breezy conditions continue at times this weekend, with moderating temperatures Sunday into at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Well-advertised rainy and increasingly windy conditions on tap over the next 24-36 hours with current focus on two inbound areas of low pressure. The first currently sitting near the Manitoba/Ontario/Minnesota border and dropping southeast, while the second wave continues to trek northeast out of the south- central Plains. The parent waves of these features currently in the process of phasing upstream with the end result expected to be one larger area of sfc low pressure that crosses lower Michigan tonight before racing quickly east to New England through the day on Friday. Upper-level heights build behind this system over the weekend with renewed surface high pressure looking to renew drier conditions and gradually moderating temperatures into at least the middle of next week. Forecast Details: Primary focus through Friday evening revolves around incoming widespread rain this afternoon through much of tonight. As this system pushes downstream on Friday, continued wrap around moisture will result in additional numerous showers and increasingly strong NNW winds. Strong cold air advection on Friday as a result, which will eventually bring an increased lake component (aiding in additional shower activity), especially Friday afternoon through Friday evening. PWs remain progged as high as 1-1.5" across the forecast area early this evening through the first half of the overnight hours -- some +1 to 3 SD above the climatological mean for mid-October. Should be a fairly steady moderate rain for much of the forecast area through tonight, especially beneficial for those in expanding drought across the eastern U.P. Favored QPF amounts this afternoon through Friday afternoon up a bit from 24 hours ago -- largely ranging from 0.60 - 1.00". As one would expect, probabilities have also increased for localized amounts of 1.00"+, up to 50-80% across portions of the area, most notably in NNW flow lake effect area that see the most numerous continued shower activity Friday afternoon/evening. Some very low (<15%) probs for 2"+ amounts still evident over the same area. Depending on how much shower activity remains after sunset Friday, which there will likely be at least some, a few inland/higher terrain locations could mix in or change over to some wet snow given continued cold advection with H8 temps progged as low as -6 to -8C. Think the primary limiting factors to this will be decreasing moisture depth with the loss of synoptic support and low-level winds almost out of the due north by this point, which will likely limit overall shower coverage across those typically colder higher terrain areas up the spine of north-central lower. Nonetheless, it's still within the realm of possibilities that a few spots coat the ground in the season's first snow. Winds Friday become increasingly gusty out of the north-northwest. Frequent gusts expected to range from 25-35 mph area-wide with those nearest the coasts having the highest likelihood to gust 40+ mph at times Friday afternoon. This weekend, drier weather expected to prevail with continued cool temperatures on Saturday (low-mid 50s) moderating for Sunday (low- mid 60s). That said, and while high pressure will largely be in control locally, low pressure passing well to north through Canada will result in enough of a pinched pressure gradient to bring the return of breezyto gusty winds Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. High temps Monday - Wednesday largely in the 60s with the next chance for rain returning toward Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 513 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR CIGs continue through much of the day, occasionally low VFR. Moisture continues to increase throughout the day, with a steady rain beginning during he afternoon and evening. Steadier rain begins ~18-21Z MBL & TVC, and 21-00Z other terminals, continuing into the overnight hours. As such, VSBYs drop (~2-3SM) and so do CIGs, generally IFR and LIFR this evening and overnight. Southeast winds generally on the lighter side today. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ322. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJG AVIATION...ELD  563 FXUS63 KMQT 151721 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 121 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active weather returns this afternoon through Friday as a deepening low pressure system works through the Great Lakes bringing periods of rain and gusty N to NW winds. - Hazardous marine weather is expected Friday. Northerly wind gusts to 50 kts are possible (25-50% chance), creating significant wave heights between 15-20 ft. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined trough moving across the Canadian Prairie, and another midlevel low spinning over the Rockies. To the east, the midlevel ridge axis is directed right over the Great Lakes. At the surface, this all translates to surface lows currently centered over Manitoba and Oklahoma, and high pressure centered over central Ontario. Closer to home, we remain under a blanket of low clouds, though some mid and upper-level cloud cover associated with Plains convection is beginning to stream into the area amid southerly flow developing aloft. Ample cloud cover has kept temperatures several degrees warmer than expected tonight, with most of the area currently in the mid 40s and only expected to bottom out in the lower 40s and perhaps upper 30s. Guidance continues to agree on the Canadian and Rockies features to phase near NE/SD this afternoon, with a surface low deepening to 1007-1009mb near Chicago by 00Z Friday. Warm advection out ahead of this kicks off a batch of widespread rain across the area this afternoon and evening, with this initial batch dropping widespread totals around 0.50-0.75" by 06Z. The cold front passes through the second half of the night, with 850mb temperatures eventually falling to around -5 to -7C into Friday afternoon. Thus, expect a transition over to lake effect/enhanced rain from 06Z onwards, with rain gradually becoming isolated to the northerly wind belts Friday morning and afternoon. Additional totals around 0.25-0.75" are expected, with the highest across the upsloping areas over the north- central UP and the Porcupines. Wouldn't surprise me to see some wet snow mix into areas of the interior highlands early and then late Friday as freezing levels fall to ~1000 ft AGL, but no accumulations are expected. Meanwhile, Friday morning through Fri afternoon the surface low feature deepens while departing northeast atop the Lower Lakes, placing Upper Michigan on the northwestern flank. Strong cold air advection and stout pressure rises (upwards of 1-2mb/hr) will contribute to northerly wind speeds reaching 25-35 kts gusting 45-50 kts on Lake Superior and the adjacent lakeshores. There is still some uncertainty regarding the maximum gust potential as ensembles (NBM and ENS) have decreased the probability of Storm Force gusts in the central lake (20-50% chance) and model soundings don't highlight mixing into any 50 kts gust layers. As winds settle late Friday and dry high pressure clears skies from west to east, temperatures will drop like a rock overnight into Saturday morning, reaching the mid to low 20s for much if not all of the interior while some lakeshores may reach freezing for the first time this fall. Ridging and dry weather dominate through the rest of the weekend with the potential for another warm up / fire weather pattern Sunday into Monday. Similar to last weekend's fire weather setup, ensembles suggest a 50-75% chance for S to SW winds gusting to 35 mph in the typical downslope locations of the west and central UP and minimum RHs falling to near 30% in the interior west and central. Luckily, temperatures are only slated to peak into the 60s. Fire partners and adjacent parties should continue to monitor the forecast as containment and mopup efforts for ongoing wildfires may still be ongoing. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A storm system moving through the Great Lakes region will bring widespread rain and low level moisture to the U.P. this afternoon into Friday. Expect MVFR/VFR conditions to deteriorate as the afternoon progresses with widespread LIFR by this evening and VLIFR cigs at CMX. Winds shift north overnight which will help start to lift cigs with improvements to IFR by Friday morning. Widespread rain pushes out during the morning but lake effect rain showers will develop along with gusty northerly winds to 30kt. Conditions will be mainly MVFR by early Friday afternoon as drier low levels help to lift cigs. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Lake Superior: Light southeast winds early this morning shift southerly into the daytime, gusting to around 15-20kts ahead of a strong cold front tonight into Friday morning. This strong cold front accompanies a deepening low pressure system that works through the Lower Great Lakes on Friday. Strong cold advection and rapid pressure rises will create sustained winds near gale force with gusts reaching 40-50 kts in the central lake Friday morning. Gales of 35-45kts are expected elsewhere across the lake. Significant wave heights build between 15-20 feet, highest along the southern lakeshores. Winds and waves slowly subside lake into early Saturday. A Gale Warning is in effect for the entire lake on Friday. Winds briefly fall back Friday night while shifting over to the SW, but then SW gales will be possible across the western arm of the lake as early as 12Z Saturday (50% chance), lingering through Sunday before winds quickly fall back below 20kts into Monday. Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Light easterly winds turn more to the southeast after daybreak, ahead of a strong cold front that whips through the northern bay and lake late tonight to early Friday. Northwest winds quickly ramp up between 35-40 kts Friday with waves building between 5-8 ft. Winds and waves subside below gale force Friday night. A Gale Warning is in effect for all N Lake Michigan marine zones on Friday. Winds briefly fall back below 20kts early Saturday morning while shifting to the SW, but then gusts pick up to 20-25kts into the afternoon with gales possible by early Sunday (50% chance). Winds quickly fall back below 20kts into Monday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday for LSZ162-240. Gale Warning from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ Friday for LSZ241-242-263. Gale Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for LSZ243-244-264. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Friday for LSZ245>248-265. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ249>251-266- 267. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW/LC AVIATION...NL MARINE...BW/LC  468 FXUS65 KBOI 151720 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1120 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 314 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 under strong ridging as the Pacific high continues to build in over the western CONUS. Dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures will continue today through Saturday. Clear skies and colder nighttime temperatures will favor the development of frosts and patchy fog this morning and Friday morning. Friday and Saturday could see daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal as the ridge centers right over our area. A weak, dry shortwave trough will dig across the northwest region Saturday, bringing a dry cold front across the area late Saturday. Breezy northwest winds, mainly over upper Treasure Valley and Magic Valley areas, are expected on Saturday with this frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 314 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 cold front moving across our area Sunday will help drop peak temperatures a few degrees, but will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Monday through Tuesday, our area will come under a strong southwest flow ahead of an incoming Pacific upper low from the Gulf of Alaska. This flow pattern will keep Monday slightly warmer than normal with elevated wind breezes from the south. There is better long-term guidance agreement on the upper low diving south along the northwest and California coasts before moving inland into the Great Basin Tuesday through Thursday. This pattern will return a cooldown and chances of precipitation over our area late Tuesday through Thursday. There remains some uncertainty over the magnitude and coverage extent of this potential multi-day precipitation event next week, especially for Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, next Thursday is looking to have the highest potential for areawide precipitation as the upper low crosses the Great Basin. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1116 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 VFR. Areas of smoke from prescribed burning near KBNO and KMYL. Fog possible again tonight in Eastern Oregon. Surface winds: E-SE 5-10kt in the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: E-NE 5-10 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds SE 5-15kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies on Sat/Sun. Areas of smoke from prescribed burns. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt mainly east of KBOI on Saturday, then S-SE 5-10 kt Sunday && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JM SHORT TERM...JY LONG TERM....JY  395 FXUS65 KTFX 151719 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1119 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... -Today it will be slightly cooler than yesterday with temperatures warming up to well above seasonal averages on Friday and Saturday -It will be windy across North-central Montana on Saturday. -It will be dry through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 525 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Today an upper-level trough briefly moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Today temperatures across North- central Montana will cool down slightly compared to yesterday. It will be dry today. On Friday an upper-level ridge moves over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This brings warm temperatures and dry weather to the area on Friday. On Friday temperatures will be well above seasonal averages. On Saturday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and dry temperatures to the area on Saturday. On Saturday the low-level and mid-level winds increase combined with the upper-level ridge flattening. This will bring windy conditions to North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. On Sunday there will be zonal flow (west-east) over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures with mostly dry weather. On Monday an upper-level ridge briefly builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up slightly with mostly dry weather. Tuesday through Wednesday there will be persistent troughing around Montana which will bring cooler temperatures and some precipitation to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: On Saturday there is a 50 - 70% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the plains west of I-15. On Saturday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 50 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 70 mph or greater. Along the higher peaks of the Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 70% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater. Additionally the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) has a standardized anomaly of 3 for 700 mb wind Saturday afternoon across the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. Models continue to show in excess of 60 to 70 kt 700 mb winds over the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15 Saturday afternoon and evening. As a result a High Wind Watch has been issued for the plains west of I-15 and the Rocky Mountain Front from 9AM Saturday through 12AM Sunday. On Saturday across the rest of North-central Montana there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater. For winds across the Hi-Line east of I-15 there is currently a low chance to reach and/or exceed high wind criteria but if the strong 700 mb winds move east faster than models are currently depicting a High Wind Watch could be needed for the Hi- Line east of I-15. -IG && .AVIATION... 15/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mid level clouds will continue to clear out this afternoon across the region. Breezy northwest winds will pull off to the east this afternoon, decreasing winds at KHVR and KLWT. Breezy southwest winds pick up at KGTF early Friday morning. -Wilson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 48 35 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 45 27 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 48 29 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 46 25 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 50 17 55 19 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 44 26 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 48 27 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 4326 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  492 FXUS66 KPDT 151720 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1020 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry and warm conditions through the end of the week 2. Breezy conditions through the Grande Ronde Valley Friday with light mountain precipitation. 3. Breezy through the wind prone areas Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Current nighttime satellite is showing clear skies over the region. This will allow for cooler overnight temperatures. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s across portions of central OR and the eastern mountains in locations like La Pine and Seneca. The Basin, Gorge, foothills and Yakima/Kittitas Valleys will see temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Deterministic models are in firm agreement with the upper level ridge remaining over the area through Friday afternoon. Temperatures will peak on Friday with in office calculations showing temperatures to be nearly 15-20 degrees above seasonal normal. Looking at the ensemble guidance, 80-90% of the HREF raw ensembles show temperatures to be in the low to mid 70s through the Basin, foothills, Gorge and Yakima/Kittitas Valleys while central OR and the John Day Basin will see upper 70s with some possible 80s mixed in. Models show that Friday will begin to see the synoptic transition of the upper level ridge moving east and an upper level trough building into the region from the northwest. As the ridge exits the area, a surface high will form in Treasure Valley while a weak surface low will form over the Columbia Basin. This is the perfect synoptic set up for easterly breezy winds through the Grande Ronde Valley. Winds through the area are expected to begin to pick after midnight reaching its peak after 11 AM and persisting through 5 PM. HREF raw ensembles show sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph with some isolated 40 mph gusts with 80-90% agreement. Saturday models show the upper level trough beginning to dig into the PacNW. As the leading edge of the trough wedges itself against the Cascades, the pressure gradients begin to tighten leading to breezy conditions through the typical winds prone gap areas. Looking at the NBM raw ensembles, 60-80% are in agreement that the Kittitas Valley will see winds between 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30-35 mph. The Gorge will see 15-20 mph sustained winds and gusts of 25-30 mph. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions to persist throughout the TAF period for all sites. Clear skies to start with few high clouds towards the 08-18z period for all sites. Breezier conditions for KDLS, KRDM, and KBND at 10KT, with gusts at 15KT for KDLS.&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 69 37 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 69 44 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 72 38 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 70 42 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 70 37 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 67 38 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 33 79 36 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 70 41 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 75 36 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 74 44 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...07/95  677 FXUS61 KPHI 151725 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 125 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the Aviation Section for the 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warm front lifts north through the region tonight. 2. A strong cold frontal passage Friday evening will bring windy conditions, showers and potential for some thunderstorms, and colder temperatures into the weekend. 3. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A warm front lifts north through the region tonight. Northerly winds will usher a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface dew points will fall into the 40s and 50s throughout the area by this afternoon, and high temperatures today will be much cooler than Wednesday. Highs today will be some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than Wednesday, topping off in the low to mid 60s. Low pressure then develops over the Midwest today and lifts to the northeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by this evening, then towards the southern Province of Ontario by Friday morning. This will pull a warm front north through the region. Clouds will lower and thicken, and rain begins to develop late. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold frontal passage Friday evening will bring windy conditions, showers and potential for some thunderstorms, and colder temperatures into the weekend. A sharp trough will begin shifting southeastward towards the region from the Upper Midwest late this week. Slow height falls aloft will begin across the area late Thursday night, with rapid height falls through the day on Friday. The trough axis currently looks to pass through the region late Friday night or early Saturday morning. At the surface, a warm front will lift northward through the region Thursday night into Friday morning, with a strong cold front passing through Friday evening into Friday night. Guidance continues to indicate a slower system which continues to delay the timing of the cold frontal passage somewhat. Currently, it appears likely that isentropic ascent will lead to a broad area of mostly light showers north of the warm front late Thursday night into the first part of the day Friday. Once the region is in the warm sector, additional showers will likely mostly hold off until the cold front approaches. In the warm sector, warm and moist southwesterly flow will be taking place with temperatures surging into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Some destabilization is likely to take place, although the window will likely only be a few hours long. Guidance currently indicates a narrow corridor ahead of the front of around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While instability will be modest, wind fields aloft will be quite strong, with 500 mb flow exceeding 60 kt. Scattered to widespread showers and some storms are likely to form along and immediately ahead of the cold front. It remains a possibility that a few storms could become severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. The cold front and accompanying showers and storms will clear the area from west to east Friday evening into Friday night. In the wake of the cold front, much cooler and drier air is expected to infiltrate the region. In addition, breezy northwest winds look to impact the area overnight Friday night and through much of the day Saturday. Right now, it looks like there could be an extended period of wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range, but it is not out of the question that winds could be a bit higher and the need for wind headlines still cannot be ruled out. Either way, it will be a much cooler day on Saturday, with highs only topping out in the 40s across the Poconos and far northern NJ, and low to mid 50sareawide. KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. Saturday night as the trough axis shifts east away from the region and high pressure builds in at the surface, the coldest air so far this season is expected across the entire area. Skies will likely be mostly clear, with winds quickly diminishing. This could set the stage for very good radiational cooling conditions. As a result, low temperatures are expected to fall below freezing across the Poconos, potentially southward into portions of the Lehigh Valley, and adjacent areas of far northern NJ. For much of the rest of the area, lows in the mid 30s to near 40 are expected. Rural areas even across southeastern PA and southern NJ cannot entirely rule out seeing their first freeze of the year. Regardless, a fairly widespread frost is expected across eastern PA and most of NJ, and some patchy frost can't be ruled out farther south into Delmarva either. Trends will continue to be monitored, but frost and/or freeze headlines appear increasingly likely to be needed in upcoming forecast cycles. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of Today...VFR with increasing clouds from south to north. East-southeast winds around 5-10 kt. High confidence. Tonight...VFR through evening, with ceilings lowering to MVFR and IFR overnight with LIFR possible early Friday morning. Showers are likely to develop after 05Z with perhaps an embedded thunderstorm, however confidence in occurrence is not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. Southeast winds will gradually veer through the night to south-southwest around 5-10 kt by Friday morning. High confidence through about 04Z, then low confidence. Friday...IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours with some lingering showers. Conditions will gradually improve from south to north after 16Z, giving way to VFR in the afternoon. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt gusting up to 20 kt. In the late afternoon, a squall line is expected to move in from the west after 20Z. This may cause another round of sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds. Moderate confidence overall. Outlook... Friday night...Generally VFR. Sub-VFR conditions possible in lingering showers and storms, which will clear from west to east Friday night, though gusty northwest winds will set in. Saturday...VFR. Gusty northwest winds. Saturday night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories have been expanded as far north as Little Egg Inlet. All SCA's are now in effect until 3 PM this afternoon due to seas around 5 feet. Northeast winds generally ranging between 10-20 kt will become east by this afternoon, then southeast late. Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt turn south late tonight. Seas of 3-5 feet through early this afternoon, diminishing to around 2-4 feet tonight. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Advisory conditions likely to develop by late afternoon Friday as southwesterly winds pick up to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Friday night, winds will shift to northwesterly with a cold frontal passage and increase further. Gales will be possible. Seas increasing to 4-6 feet. Showers and a few storms will likely lead to visibility restrictions. Saturday through Sunday...Advisory conditions likely to continue through Saturday and even Saturday night with northwesterly winds potentially gusting to near gale force through the daytime hours Saturday before beginning to decrease Saturday night. Winds and seas will likely subside to below advisory criteria through the day Sunday. Sunday night through Monday...No marine headlines currently anticipated with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ430-431-450>455-480>483-485. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ452>455. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/MPS AVIATION...Cooper/DeSilva/MPS MARINE...Cooper/DeSilva/MPS  631 FXUS63 KDVN 151723 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A widespread rain will occur through early evening with possibly a rumble of thunder. No severe storms are expected. - A strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight bringing very windy conditions into Friday. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible. - Frost is a certainty across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. The probability of a light freeze north of Highway 30 are now 50-60 percent. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 146 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Dry easterly flow is delaying the onset of rain. The lift is strong so once rain begins developing the areal coverage will increase quickly. The strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight turning winds around to the northwest. All models show a trop fold moving through the area late Thursday night and Friday. Said feature will result in very windy conditions from midnight through early Friday afternoon. Gusts to 40 mph will be common with localized gusts to 45 mph. The probabilities of wind headlines are currently at 25-30 percent. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 146 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday night through Wednesday Assessment...a certainty of frost late Friday night into Saturday morning. Clearing skies and light winds will result in frost occurring Friday night into Saturday morning. Overall probabilities of a light freeze continue to increase north of Highway 30. Freeze probabilities for those areas are now 50-60 percent. Frost headlines will be needed in the next 36 hours for the Friday night into Saturday morning time frame. Trends will continue to be watched regarding the possibility of freeze headlines. Frost will also be possible late Saturday night and Sunday morning east of the Mississippi. Unlike Friday night, it is expected to be more isolated. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A broad storm system will tighten to a low pressure over northeast Illinois by this evening. This will occur, while a strong high pressure builds southeast into the Plains. The result will be widespread IFR to MVFR conditions in low cigs between 400 and 1000 ft, and visibility variable 1 to 5 miles in rain and fog this afternoon and early evening. As the low moves to northeast Illinois around 00z, winds will switch to northwest and greatly increase to sustained 15 to 20 kts, gusting to 30 to 35 kts, lasting through Friday morning. These cold, stronger winds will be accompanied by mainly MVFR cigs, and possibly some light showers at times. Towards the end of the period, dry air arriving into the region should begin to break up the cloud cover, or at least allow cigs to lift above MVFR levels. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Ervin  729 FXUS61 KBOX 151726 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 126 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry today with seasonably cool temperatures. - Fast-moving system expected to bring periods of rain Friday, followed by much colder and drier conditions Saturday. - Quiet and seasonable weather Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry today with seasonably cool temperatures. High pressure settles in over the region today along with a notably drier airmass. Initially breezy conditions early this morning will wane heading into the late morning/early afternoon. A cooler, more seasonable airmass moves overhead today, dropping 925 mb temperatures from the 16-18C range to generally just below 10C. This will be more supportive of highs back in the upper 50s and low 60s across southern New England. Humidity also notably drops as drier air moves in, dropping dew points into the 40s and PWATs to generally around 0.25". KEY MESSAGE 2...Fast-moving system expected to bring periods of rain Friday, followed by much colder and drier conditions Saturday. High pressure today drifts off to the east and offshore later tonight ahead of a strong northern stream shortwave trough progressing east through the Great Lakes and into the northeast. Compared to last night's guidance, the timing for this front appears to have slowed down slightly, though this is still expected to be a quick moving system. The associated surface low is slated to track through the Great Lakes region, deepening as it moves northeast and reaching the 1000 mb mark (and possibly lower) by Friday morning, centered over southeast Ontario. Ensembles are in strong agreement with this threshold being crossed especially as it tracks into northern NY and VT by early Friday afternoon. Deterministic global guidance takes it to around 995 mb by the evening hours. Out ahead of the low, a warm front is expected to track into the region which will be the main driver for our first round of rain. Based on the latest guidance, rain is expected to move in closer to the 4-8 AM time range from west to east, spreading over the region. Once the warm front moves through, the warm sector settles in overhead. 925 mb temperatures climb up again into the 16-18C range, especially in the afternoon, and anomalous PWATs increase up to around 1.75" with the moisture plume advected in by this system. Highs will be warmer than that of Thursday given this warm sector overhead during the day Friday, but not to the same level we saw Wednesday; highs will likely top out in the upper 60s with some places brushing 70. With the first round of rain out of the region by the afternoon, we're left with a muggy, breezy, and mild day. Some showers during this lull aren't out of the question, though, given the strong WAA. Round two moves in toward the evening hours Friday ahead of the low's strong cold front. This front will provide strong forcing in an environment with bulk shear at 0-6 km expected to be at and above 50 kt. A southerly LLJ sets up over much of eastern MA, RI, reaching 40-50 kt at 925 mb and up to 60 kt over the region from the SW at 850 mb. CAPE values top out around 500 J/kg based on the latest CAMs and global guidance, so while widespread severe weather is not expected, some embedded thunderstorms are not out of the question. With regards to rainfall totals, ensembles appear to have trended totals down slightly, generally ranging between 0.30"-0.60". Probabilities for totals reaching or exceeding an inch within southern New England have dropped considerably, though the GEFS does have a 20% chance across much of MA and into northern CT. Even with these low probabilities, the chance that there could be some convective features combined with these high PWAT values keeps the chance for some locally higher rainfall totals in play. Breezy winds are expected for Friday given the aforementioned LLJ, though latest guidance has trended the intensity down slightly. This appears to be driven by the presence of a low-level thermal inversion noticeable in forecast soundings. Generally, gusts to 30 mph seem most likely, though the waters may very well see gusts to the 35 mph range and higher given the warmer ocean temperatures. As the cold front crosses southern New England Saturday morning, strong CAA kicks off in its wake. 925 mb temperatures fall below 0C heading by Saturday evening, and PWATs fall below 0.25" once more as colder, drier air sets in. Lows Friday night fall into the 40s and upper 30s (towards the high elevations). Highs Saturday may struggle to reach the low 50s across the interior and lows Saturday night will likely dip below freezing across the region, with the exceptions being areas closest to the coasts and urban areas. Though, those areas will likely be sitting just above freezing overnight, with low 40s possible for the Cape and Islands. In the midst of this colder air, strong NW winds prevail, gusting well into the 30 mph range with some gusts to 40 mph not to be ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 3...Quiet and seasonable weather Sunday through Tuesday. High pressure builds in Sunday and a more seasonably cool airmass moves into the region, and the tighter gradient between the strong exiting low and approaching high pressure slackens. This will allow winds to let up as well, diminishing slightly heading into the second half of the weekend and the start of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: Today and Tonight...High confidence. VFR. Winds currently shifting NE and diminishing to near 10 kts as the high pressure system takes over. Winds shift SE this evening, generally around 5 kts, and some higher level clouds begin to build in overnight. Thursday Night...Moderate confidence. Becoming MVFR to IFR with -SHRA moving in from west to east between 06Z and 12Z. S-SW winds develop with gusts nearing 20 kt closer to sunrise. Friday...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR with SHRA. Brief respite from SHRA possible in the afternoon hours, though low ceilings continue. Will need to monitor for the risk of some embedded TSRA and convective features. Gusty S to SW winds up to 30 kt with higher gusts possible near the coasts and higher elevations. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Seas around 3-5 ft on most waters through today, with dry weather and good visibility expected. Gusts should subside below SCA criteria by late this afternoon. A frontal system brings SW winds back into the SCA range on Friday (25-30 kt), which will also bring periods of light to moderate rain reducing visibility through Friday early evening. A short period of small craft advisories will likely be needed once the existing SCAs expiring Thursday afternoon expire. Looking ahead into Friday night and into Saturday...a period of strong northwest winds are forecast. We've issued a Gale Watch onmost waters for Friday night into Saturday, with seas becoming increasingly rough at up to 12 ft. Dry weather is expected by Saturday. Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ230>234-250-251-254-255. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-280>283. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...McMinn MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin  751 FXUS61 KCTP 151726 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 126 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Severe threat has increased for Friday afternoon and early evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Potent storm system moves across PA tonight and Fri with a severe threat Fri aftn/eve. 2) Windy with first flakes on the higher terrain of the north Fri night/Sat morning 3) Cold weather may end the growing season for many places this weekend, with Sun morning the coldest. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Potent storm system moves across PA tonight and Fri with a severe threat Fri aftn/eve. A surface low moving through the Midwest will cross the Great Lakes tonight and Friday. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will develop tonight ahead of a warm front as it lifts northward into the region. Most guidance shows a break in the showers for much of the CWA during the late morning/early afternoon which will allow for at least some air mass destabilization before a strong cold front begins to approach from the west. The HREF shows surface CAPE approaching 1000 J/kg for areas east of I-99 which will be more than sufficient for widespread thunderstorm development along the front. With 0-6 km bulk shear expected to be in the 40 to 60 knot range and oriented nearly parallel to the surface boundary, initial storms should quickly merge into a low-topped squall line capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. SPC has a wind driven slight risk of severe weather over the southeastern half of the area to highlight this threat. We will also need to watch the leading edge of the line for brief QLCS tornadoes as model soundings show between 20 and 30 knots of 0-1 km shear and over 100 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE that may aid in stretching any vorticity. The threat will likely be maximized (although a much lower chance than the potential for damaging wind gusts) during the afternoon over southeast PA, and this is where SPC has included a 2 percent tornado contour. ----------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Windy with first flakes possible on the higher terrain of the north Fri night/Sat morning The post-frontal pressure gradient is pretty tight with 10mb of drop across the state Friday night and Saturday morning. 50+KT winds behind the front look like they will stay AOA 6-7kft and soundings from both the RAP and the NAM show winds at the top of the mixed layer remaining below 40 knots. This should prevent wind gusts from getting any stronger than 35 or 40 mph and a Wind Advisory appears much less likely than it did a few days ago. 850 mb temps over Lake Erie will fall to around -5C by Saturday morning as a much colder air mass moves in. This is certainly cold enough to support lake effect clouds with lake surface temps still in the low 60s, but the potential for widespread rain or snow showers continues to decrease. Northerly flow will result in a very short fetch across the lakes, so moisture will be limited. Even though model RH profiles do show saturation in the DGZ, significantly drier air below that level should prevent much of the precipitation from reaching the ground. That being said, most models do still show a few light rain or snow showers developing over the northern tier. The window of opportunity for these showers will be rather short as drier air moves in by mid-morning. ------------------------------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 3: Cold weather may end the growing season for many places Sun morning. A large surface high moves in for the weekend, supplying dry but cold weather for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will hold the coldest daytime temps with temps getting just above 40F in the NE and 52F in the SE. Those maxes will be 20-30F lower than Friday's maxes. The current forecast show temperature dropping below freezing Saturday morning over parts of northwest PA, but there is still some uncertainty regarding just how low temperatures get since it should stay pretty cloudy for much of the night. If confidence continues to increase in parts of the region dipping below 32, a Freeze Warning may be needed for some zones across north-central PA. McKean County would be left out of any freeze products since their growing season has already ended. Frost is less of a concern Friday night/Saturday morning due to the aforementioned cloud cover as well as the fact that winds likely stay pretty gusty. Sunday morning will be the most-likely time for sub-freezing temps across much of the CWA. This could end the growing season for a significant portion of the forecast area. A widespread frost is almost a certainty as winds decrease and go mainly calm Sun AM. We'll be considering appropriate frost/freeze products, but it is still too early to be that confident on details. Sunday night will likely also feature fairly widespread frost, but the location of any frost/freeze headlines will depend on where the growing season remains active after the previous night's freeze. High pressure is expected to remain in control for at least the first half of next week. This will result in mainly dry weather with high temperatures returning to the upper 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Winds have shifted northerly in the wake of yesterday's weak frontal passage, allowing for drier air to filter in across the Commonwealth. A subsidence inversion at around 1500 ft is contributing to periods of MVFR ceilings across the Allegheny Plateau and Laurels (KBFD/KJST/KAOO) as low-level moisture remains trapped beneath the inversion. While the central mountain terminals (KUNV/KIPT) are favored to remain VFR through Thursday evening, intermittent MVFR ceilings will be possible (20-30% chance) into the morning hours on the periphery of greater low-level moisture to the north and west. Farther southeast (KMDT/KLNS), restrictions are less likely through Thursday evening due to lower relative humidity values at the inversion height (RH to around 80% vs. 90-100% farther northwest). As the weak front slides southward across the Mid-Atlantic, southerly return flow will build out ahead of a more potent low pressure system approaching the southern Great Lakes, allowing for the boundary to lift northward as a warm front this afternoon and evening. Winds of 5 to 10 kts will veer throughout today, shifting from N-NW in the morning to S-SE in the afternoon. Scattered showers and lowering ceilings will accompany the warm front later today, with IFR ceilings likely (50-70% chance) to overspread central Pennsylvania from west to east between 00-06Z Friday as warm air advection drives moisture back in across the region. Moreover, nocturnal LLWS is likely (50-70% chance) over the western airfields (KBFD/KJST) Thursday night as an LLJ ahead of the system brings southwesterly winds at 925 mb to 35-40 kts. LLWS is less likely with points eastward, farther from the low pressure center moving over the southern Great Lakes. Outlook... Fri...Higher chances of SHRA with isolated TSRA. Restrictions increasingly likely. Gusty S-SW winds likely ahead of front, with gusty NW winds behind front. Sat...Lingering SHRA across N/W PA with some -SHSN mixing in early Saturday morning. Restrictions likely at airfields that mix over to SHSN. Precipitation tapers off by sunrise, VFR prevails with gusty winds. Sun-Mon...AM fog possible; otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Bauco DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Bauco AVIATION...Teare  776 FXUS62 KMLB 151727 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 127 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Rain chances gradually rise today into Friday, with temperatures slightly above normal. - A wet and windy weekend is forecast behind a passing front, with conditions persisting into early next week. Wind Advisories are likely and flooding concerns return, especially along the southern coast. - Dangerous boating conditions, high surf, and moderate beach erosion are expected behind the front this weekend and into early next week. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water beginning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today-Friday...Broad area of high pressure north of the area will gradually shift eastward as a mid/upper level trough moving into the Central U.S. pushes a cold front into the southeast states. Onshore winds will continue across the area, but will weaken into tomorrow, with easterly winds increasing to around 10 mph this afternoon and then dropping to 5-10 mph on Friday. The onshore flow at the surface combined with S/SE winds aloft on the western edge of a mid level ridge transports deeper moisture northward across the area through late week, leading to rising rain chances across the area. For today, rain chances (20-50%) remain mostly south of a line from Orlando to the Cape, where greatest moisture (PW values of 1.7-2.0") will reside. Isolated onshore moving showers will be possible along the coast, mainly south of the Cape this morning, and then isolated to scattered showers and a few storms are forecast to develop south of Orlando into this afternoon. Into Friday, PW values of 1.9-2.1" overspread all of east central Florida, with coverage of showers and storms increasing (PoPs 50-60%), becoming scattered to numerous primarily into the afternoon and early evening hours. Main storm threats each day will be occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds up to 45 mph and locally heavy rainfall up to 1-3". Temperatures climb to slightly above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Wednesday...Weather conditions rapidly deteriorate into the weekend as trough aloft shifts into the eastern U.S. and pushes front through the area. Breezy to windy conditions quickly develop into Saturday as northerly winds increase to 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 30-40 mph (strongest along the coast). Wind Advisories will likely be needed for the coast into Saturday/Saturday night, and may even expand across inland areas during the day Sunday as northeast winds look to strengthen from tightening pressure gradient between front to the south and strong ridge to the north. Some forecast uncertainty does come into play later in the weekend into next week, as models show a cut-off low forming from the advancing trough and developing a strong area of low pressure at the surface either near (ECMWF) or well offshore (GFS) the Mid-Atlantic coast. Exact timing/location of this developing feature could lead to some differences in wind direction and overall speed. However, current forecast leans toward the GFS, which has more model support currently, maintaining breezy to windy NE winds through at least early next week. Models now show advancing front will push out some of the deeper moisture across the area, even as winds quickly veer onshore. Rain chances remain high up to 50-70% for much of the area Saturday. However, the GFS now has PW values falling below 1.5" by Sunday. Still, the strong onshore winds will still produce rounds of scattered to numerous showers that will be able topush onshore through late weekend into early next week. A few storms will also continue to be possible, mainly south of the Cape where some lingering instability will persist. Persistent bands of showers and any storms could lead to locally heavy to excessive rainfall, producing flooding issues, mainly across the Treasure Coast. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (Level 1 of 4) exists across this portion of east central FL into the weekend. Cooler temperatures move in behind the front, with highs dropping to as low as the mid 70 to low 80s Sunday, and then slowly warming but remaining near to below normal through the middle of next week. The strong onshore winds will lead to a prolonged period of dangerous beach and boating conditions. High surf, with breaking waves of 9-12 ft over multiple tidal cycles will contribute to moderate beach erosion, especially north of Cape Canaveral. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today-Friday...Favorable boating conditions persist through Friday. High pressure north of the area shifts east through late week, as a cold front moves into the Southeast United States. This will allow onshore winds to continue but weaken, with easterly winds up to 10- 15 knots today diminishing to 5-10 knots tomorrow. Seas will remain around 2-3 feet. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the waters as will a few storms, mainly south of the Cape today, with coverage of this activity increasing across the entire coastal waters into Friday. Saturday-Tuesday...Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are then forecast to rapidly develop behind a passing front into the weekend. N/NE winds increase to 20-30 knots across the waters Saturday and then strengthen to around 25-30 knots across the entire waters on Sunday, with frequent gusts to gale force likely. Winds of this intensity are then expected to continue through early next week keeping dangerous boating conditions in place. These stronger winds will quickly build seas up to 10-14 feet by Saturday night and remain around that height through early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered storms will also persist across the waters, with this activity continuing to push toward the coast and onshore, especially south of the Cape. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Onshore flow prevails this afternoon, with low chances for showers and storms from MLB southward along the coast. Removed PROB30s at FPR and SUA given lower confidence in activity, but will monitor and amend as needed. Winds become light and variable overnight, with some spots along the coast maintaining an onshore component. Low chance for some onshore-moving VCSH at VRB, FPR, and SUA tonight. Winds remain light and variable across the interior beyond 15Z tomorrow, with winds picking up out of the ESE along the coast after 17Z as the ECSB develops and pushes inland. Another afternoon of showers and storms will be possible tomorrow, with a mention of VCTS at MCO after 18Z for now, with additional terminals likely being added with the next forecast package. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 87 72 79 / 10 40 20 30 MCO 73 91 74 81 / 0 60 40 40 MLB 76 87 73 83 / 10 60 50 70 VRB 75 88 72 85 / 30 60 50 70 LEE 73 90 73 78 / 0 50 20 30 SFB 73 90 73 80 / 10 50 30 30 ORL 73 90 74 81 / 0 60 40 30 FPR 75 88 72 85 / 30 60 50 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Tollefsen  721 FXUS63 KGRB 151726 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1226 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .UPDATE... Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for the bay and our nearshore waters of Lake Michigan from 8 am to 9 pm Friday. The Gale Warning was started a few hours early to cover the ramp up of hazardous small craft due to increasing winds and waves until gale force gust arrive late Friday morning and continue through the afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain arrives Thursday afternoon, and will continue at times through Friday. Expect most areas to see between 0.5 and 1" of total rainfall. - Northwest winds increase on Friday, with gusts between 35 and 45 mph possible. Gale force gusts expected across marine zones. - A widespread frost/freeze event is expected Friday night into early Saturday morning. - A warming trend and breezy southwest winds will bring daytime high temperatures back into the 60s late this weekend, with minimal rain chances through mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Rain chances Thursday/Friday... Biggest change from previous forecast cycles centers around a noticeable jump in QPF amounts Thursday through Friday as models hone in on timing/evolution of the upper pattern. Signs still point toward phasing of northern and southern stream lows over the western Great Lakes Thursday night as a deepening surface low ejects from the central Plains. Jet energy ramps up during this time as moisture plume (near 99th percentile PWATs) interacts with mid-level FGEN in proximity to low pressure over southern Wisconsin. As such, probabilities for receiving one inch of QPF now stand at a widespread 30 to 60%. Thus expecting a soaking rainfall across most of northeast Wisconsin, which will be beneficial to areas across the north that have been in an extended period of drought. Stratiform rain then becomes more scattered in coverage on Friday, though wrap around moisture should keep at least light rain around for most of the day. Temperatures... Following a decent stretch of seasonable weather, cold FROPA and intrusion of arctic high will bring a brief spell of well below normal temperatures from the Plains to the Midwest on Friday. 850 mb temperatures plunge to around 2 to 5C below zero, which will translate to high temperatures reading in the mid 40s across the north to the mid 50s in the Fox Valley. Overnight lows will then fall into the mid 20s to low 30s inland of Lake Michigan, pointing toward a high confidence setup for frost/freeze under clearing skies and light winds. If trends hold, expect most areas to see a hard freeze that would effectively put an end to the growing season. Expect headlines to be forthcoming in the next day or so. Return flow then quickly sets up over the weekend, resulting in high temperatures rebounding into the 60s. Extended... High pressure looks to be the main driver of the synoptic pattern through at least the middle of next week, with no organized systems on the horizon. More active pattern looks to set up beyond then as upper flow re-amplifies, though details are few this far out. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Flying conditions will continue deteriorating to primarily IFR for the rest of today and tonight, with some improvement to MVFR late in the TAF period on Friday morning. Ongoing widespread rain will move northeast into the rest of northeast WI over the next 1-2 hours; and then persist for the afternoon and evening, leading to low cigs and vsbys. Temporary dips to LIFR over the next 12 hours with cigs right around the 500 ft threshold. Rain transitionsto scattered to isolated coverage after 06Z/Fri, but low cigs and vsby remain. Improvements to MVFR occur around or after 09Z/Fri as ceilings rise and patchy fog clears out, but as this occurs NW winds increase, with gusts up to 30 kts. LLWS is also present at 2kft for central and north-central WI on Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for the bay and our nearshore waters of Lake Michigan from 8 am to 9 pm Friday. The Gale Warning was started a few hours early to cover the ramp up of hazardous small craft due to increasing winds and waves until gale force gust arrive late Friday morning and continue through the afternoon. From the previous discussion: Gradient winds on the back edge of the departing surface low ramp up Thursday night into Friday morning, putting us solidly within northwest flow and CAA regime. Deep daytime mixing will tap into 45 to 50 knot winds at 850 mb Friday afternoon, which will result in a brief window for gale force gusts over all marine zones through Friday evening. NBM probabilistic guidance continues to show a healthy signal (60 to 90%) for gusts exceeding 38 mph, highest along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters south of Kewaunee. Waves build 6 to 9 ft on the Lake and 3 to 6 ft on the Bay during this time, subsiding Friday night as winds shift to more westerly and the pressure gradient eases up. Gale Watches remain in effect. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.........Eckberg DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......KLJ MARINE.........Goodin/Eckberg  712 FXUS64 KEPZ 151726 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1126 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 927 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A strong backdoor cold front is set to arrive Thursday night, bringing gusty winds and well below normal temperatures into the weekend. - High Wind Warning is in effect for far west Texas and portions of southern New Mexico for Thursday night into Friday. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible along mountain west slopes. - Scattered rain showers starting Monday and continuing through next Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 927 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The north wind doth blow this early afternoon as an upper-level low moves across the Rockies. But once the sun nears the horizon, the winds will shift east and increase drastically, for a backdoor cold front of formidable strength will reach our area early this evening. The backdoor cold front stems from a combination of the upper-level low splitting into two this afternoon, with the second circulation moving southwest towards Arizona, and a strong surface high in the northern Rockies filling the void the upper-level low has left, bringing a surge of cooler air into our region tonight. 3 The cold front boundary shall reach the El Paso/Las Cruces metro areas this evening. With this cold front is a tight pressure gradient and a low level jet that will bring sustained east- northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph for most of the region. Wind gusts exceeding 60 mph are expected for Otero, Hudspeth, and El Paso Counties tonight and into tomorrow, particularly along the west slopes of the mountains. High Wind Warnings are in effect for these counties, as well as southern Hidalgo and Grant Counties, through tomorrow night. The rest of the county warning area is under a Wind Advisory, with gusts up to 50 mph, through tomorrow night. Blowing dust is likely with these strong winds in El Paso and Hudspeth Counties in Texas, and southern Dona Ana and Luna Counties in New Mexico, beginning late this evening. The playas in Hidalgo County is also expected to see blowing dust on Friday. Temperatures for the region will plunge to at least 20 degrees below normal tonight thanks to the cold air advection associated with the cold front. Friday and Saturday will be a struggle for daytime high temperatures to reach the lower 60s in the lowlands. Freezing temperatures are expected for the mountains both on Friday and Saturday morning. It is likely we shall not have snow or even rain in the mountains, for a surge in moisture in previous model runs has shifted south. Rain is not expected to be a factor for our region this weekend. Once the winds die down Sunday, temperatures will begin their steady climb back to seasonal normals. The cutoff low will be in the Baja by this point and weakened enough to be folded into a passing ridge, bringing subtropical moisture into the region as early as Sunday afternoon. The Animas Mountains in the New Mexico bootheel will see a slight chance of showers Sunday afternoon, and a greater chance of rain showers across the region is expected to start Monday afternoon. A new Pacific trough will help facilitate shower chances across the region early next week, though how much rain the region will get through next Thursday remains to be seen. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 927 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ceilings will be clear for the observation period, but wind will be the concern for the region as low-end breezy winds from the north switch to the east around 00Z this evening as a backdoor cold front moves in from the northeast. Wind speeds will increase dramatically tonight and blow into tomorrow, with sustained wind speeds of 25-35 knots and gusts to 50+ knots. BLDU is also possible with these strong winds. KELP and KDMN have the best chance to see the strongest winds, and KLRU and KTCS's winds will be slightly lower, but still quite blustery. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 927 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low end breezy winds from the north will define this early afternoon. Min RHs in the lowlands are in the mid-to-upper teens and in the upper-20s-to-low-30's across the mountains. A drastic change is afoot this evening as a backdoor cold front arrives from the northeast, shifting winds eastward and dropping temperatures to at least 20 degrees below average. Sustained wind speeds tonight and into tomorrow will range from 25-35 mph are wide, with wind gusts exceeding 60 mph along the west slopes of the mountains. Min RHs Friday and Saturday will continue to be in the mid-to-upper teens in the lowlands, and fall to the 20s in the mountains. Temperatures will gradually warm up and winds will die down on Sunday, with a chance for rain early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 54 65 45 64 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 47 58 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 48 65 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 47 68 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 27 41 23 46 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 49 66 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 44 61 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 67 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 51 65 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 56 64 48 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 52 63 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 54 67 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 45 56 37 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 66 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 64 44 62 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 51 68 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 48 67 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 49 70 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 54 66 46 64 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 49 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 34 50 28 56 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 33 52 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 33 50 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 37 58 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 46 64 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 67 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 39 61 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 45 64 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 71 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 67 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 63 40 59 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 64 46 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 64 44 61 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 63 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 59 42 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County. NM...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight MDT Friday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley. High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight MDT Friday night for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel. High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Friday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Northern Dona Ana County-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands. && $$ FORECASTER...41-Zotter  762 FXUS64 KMEG 151727 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A strong cold front will pass through the Midsouth Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures through the weekend. - Friday's cold front will bring an elevated wildfire danger, particularly to areas along and west of Interstate 55. Strong winds and low relative humidity will moderate by sundown Friday evening. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This morning's upper air analysis featured an upper-level ridge centered over the Southeast U.S. with a longwave trough axis extending from the Northern Plains to the Southwest U.S. Southwest flow aloft is present over portions of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys. A few subtle embedded shortwaves are producing some showers and thunderstorms upstream along the I-40 corridor in the vicinity of a cold front. Very warm and dry conditions persist across the Mid- South with late morning temperatures in the 80s. Another hot afternoon is expected across the area as temperatures rise into the lower 90s across most locations. This will result in the potential for a few additional high temperature records to be tied or broken. This period of hot weather will come to an end as a strong northern stream upper-level trough will drop into the region later tonight into Friday. This will result in strong cold air advection producing substantially cooler temperatures for Friday and the upcoming weekend. Highs this weekend will be mostly in the 60s with lows Saturday night falling into the upper 30s to middle 40s. Short-term model trends and soundings continue to indicate very sparse moisture associated with this frontal passage. Thus, confidence remains very low for any location receiving anything more than perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rain at best. Elevated and gusty winds will accompany the frontal passage with surface dewpoints dropping substantially Friday afternoon. These elevated winds and relative humidity values between 30- 35 percent, generally for areas along and west of a line from Dyersburg, TN to Oxford, MS, may result in an elevated fire danger Friday afternoon and the issuance of a Rangeland Fire Danger statement. Long range deterministic and ensemble model trends continue to show a dry pattern persisting across the region as an omega block sets up across the Southern U.S. next week. Consequently, temperatures will transition back to above normal next week with highs in the 80s towards the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will persist across the airspace through the remainder of today. A MVFR deck may begin to move in along a frontal boundary mainly after 08Z from northwest to southeast, with the greatest confidence for MKL and TUP. MVFR cigs may be warranted at MEM and JBR in later TAF cycles, but there is enough uncertainty currently to leave out. Along this frontal boundary, there will be a sharp wind shift to the northwest with sustained winds increasing to around 15 kts and gusts upwards of 20 to 25 kts through the end of the current period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Dry conditions will persist into next week with little to no wetting rainfall. A strong cold front will pass through the region later tonight into Friday morning. Post-frontal relative humidity will drop below 40 percent Friday afternoon, accompanied by strong northwest winds. These elevated winds and relative humidity values between 30-35 percent, generally for areas along and west of a line from Dyersburg, TN to Oxford, MS, may result in an elevated fire danger Friday afternoon and the issuance of a Rangeland Fire Danger statement. Winds will gradually diminish into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will moderate again next week as an upper-level ridge builds across the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...CMA  813 FXUS63 KTOP 151729 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dreary today with mostly cloudy skies and rain/drizzle - Much cooler and drier air moves in behind today's cold front for Friday and Saturday. Frost/freeze conditions appear likely Saturday morning. - Turning warmer Sunday into the middle of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A closed mid-level low is advancing east across Colorado early this morning as another potent wave dives southeast across southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into the Northern Plains. Energy lifting northeast ahead of the aforementioned low has generated another swath of rain and drizzle across the area. Limited instability has kept rainfall rates low, generally 0.25" per hour or less, and expect this to remain the case. Slightly higher rainfall rates and intermittent lightning have been observed across southeast Kansas. This will lift towards Anderson County over the next hour or two. Will hold onto the Flood Watch for now, but the overall potential for flooding is low and anticipate being able to cancel the Flood Watch early. Continued lift from the approaching mid-level low will lead to periodic rain and/or drizzle for much of the day today. The northern stream wave absorbs the closed low and pushes a cold front through the area by this evening. Gusty northwest winds behind the front usher in cooler and drier air for Friday and Saturday. CAA from breezy north winds and cloud cover will keep highs in the 50s on Friday! Model soundings show steep low-level lapse rates leading to weak instability; REFS and HREF mean for MUCAPE is ~25 J/kg. As a result, there is the potential for a couple of pop-up showers Friday afternoon and evening, which could mix down gustier winds aloft. The most likely area for this looks to be east into Missouri, so have kept a dry forecast for now. A strong Canadian high pressure slides overhead Friday night into Saturday morning. Light winds and clearing skies set the stage for the first frost/freeze of the season with lows forecast to be in the low to mid 30s. Areas north of Interstate 70 continue to have the highest likelihood of falling to or below freezing; NBM probabilities of reaching freezing are 40- 65% in this area. Will likely need headlines frost/freeze headlines, but uncertainty remains in exact areas of freeze vs frost. The surface high moves east through the day Saturday, allowing southerly low-level flow to return and a warming trend to ensue early next week. Highs will be near-normal by Sunday and back into the 70s Monday through the middle of next week. Guidance is consistent in a shortwave ejecting across the Plains on Monday, but dry low-levels favor this wave passing through dry. Better precipitation chances come Wednesday-Thursday of next week as flow becomes southwesterly ahead of a western US trough, although variability among guidance is high. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Challenging forecast as a system continues to work through the area today so amendments to TAFs could be needed for the afternoon timeframe. Light and scattered rain showers could linger for the first few hours of this TAF period, but ceilings should generally continue to lift through the afternoon. Northwest winds also increase this afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 kts becoming more likely. There could be a brief period late this evening where winds increase further as a secondary front rotates through the region. VFR is then expected to return tonight. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Teefey  803 FXUS64 KHUN 151728 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Above normal temperatures are forecast today with more record setting warmth, and Minor to Moderate (Level 2/4) heat impacts across portions of the Tennessee Valley. - Colder conditions returning Friday into the weekend. - Dry conditions are forecast through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure off of the Southeast Coast will produce a southerly flow across the greater Tennessee Valley region. This warm flow, along with mostly sunny skies into the afternoon, will result in one last day of unseasonable warmth. Highs again should soar into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Standing record high today in Huntsville of 88 set in 1924, 1938 and 1947 will probably fall, and the record at Muscle Shoals of 91/2015 will be challenged. Given 925mb temperatures of 22-24C do support highs to the lower 90s. We should have mild night one last time, with lows in the low/mid 60s. With the very warm surface temperatures, dewpoints falling will produce relative humidity values down into the mid 30s percent range across NW Alabama. Even if they fall lower, light SW winds should help preclude serious outdoor fire spread and growth. That said, outdoor fires could occur given dry fine fuels (grasses, small branches) across the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The warm spell that we have been experiencing as of late will come to an end Friday morning, as a cold front sweeps in NW-SE manner across the Valley. This boundary will be moisture starved (with most of the dynamics and moisture well to our north and NE), thus am expecting a "dry" frontal passage. Newer output from the ECMWF was hinting at light showers mainly along and east of the I-65 corridor Fri afternoon. The front should be felt as SW winds will become NW, increasing to 15-20 mph with some gusts over 25 mph. Highs should range from the mid 70s NW Alabama where the cool air arrives earlier, to around 80 over the eastern areas where it arrive later. What could be called "blustery" conditions are expected Fri night as temperatures fall. Temperatures in the early evening should be only in the lower 60s, but will fall into the upper 40s by the late evening. A stiff NW-N flow of 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will make for uncomfortable conditions for those participating in outdoor activities. The colder trend will continue under mostly sunny skies Sat, with highs only into the lower 60s. Northerly winds of 10-20 mph are expected into the early afternoon, then should gradually diminish towards the early evening. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure at the surface by Sat night should be situated over the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. This cold anticyclone bringing a N-NE flow across the greater Tennessee Valley will bring the coldest air of the season thus far. Night time lows by Sun morning should range from the upper 30s our southern Middle Tennessee counties to the low/mid 40s near large bodies of water. The models have been showing mainly 38 degrees over Lincoln and Moore counties. Under clear skies and light winds, we cannot rule out temperatures falling another couple of degrees or so, which would bring a frost risk. This is something we will monitor. The start of a new week should feature sunny skies with high temperatures a bit warmer than they were Sat, rising into the mid and upper 60s. Light winds in the morning should become E-SE in the afternoon. Not as cold Sun night with lows in the low/mid 40s. A slow warming trend is expected for the start of the new work week. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, highs Mon should rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows Mon night mid 40s to around 50. The moderation in temperatures continues into the midweek. Under partly cloudy skies, highs on Tue should get close to seasonable norms into the low/mid 70s, and into the mid 70s to around 80 Wed. Lows Tue night again should range from the mid 40s to around 50. Dry weather should continue into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions should continue into Fri morning, as high pressure off of the SE coast provides a southerly flow across this region. Shower activity preceding a frontal boundary nearing from the NW should remain west of the area through Fri morning. This cold front is forecast to sweep in a NW-SE manner across the TN Valley Friday morning. Southerly winds will veer to the NW and increase to 10-20kt with stronger gusts late in the TAF. Post frontal clouds moving in should produce MVFR CIGs late Fri morning as well. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...RSB  985 FXUS61 KALY 151731 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 131 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms (Level 1 of 5) for areas mainly south of I-90 for Friday. Also, increased wind speeds/gusts for a brief period Friday morning with strong south to southeast winds developing amid rapid pressure falls and rain showers ahead of incoming warm front. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong cold front will bring gusty winds, showers and a few thunderstorms to the region for Friday, followed by blustery and unseasonably chilly conditions for Friday night into Saturday along with a few mountain snow showers. 2) Dry weather with temperatures to near seasonable levels Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After a dry and pleasant day today, phasing upper level energy across the central U.S. will track east, with a strong cold front approaching from the west Friday as low pressure tracks along the St. Lawrence River Valley. A warm front will approach from the southwest late tonight, with bands of rain developing ahead of the front at the leading edge of a strengthening low level jet. Strong forcing and some elevated instability will allow for some locally heavy downpours and rumbles of thunder to occur toward and shortly after daybreak Friday, especially across the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks, Capital/Saratoga and Lake George Region into southern VT. Latest NBM 6-hour probs for >1" rainfall ending 8 AM Friday are ~10-20% across portions of the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. Although flooding is not expected at this time, some ponding of water in poor drainage areas could make for a wet Friday morning commute in these areas. As the low level jet translates overhead around and shortly after daybreak, strong south to southeast winds will be possible across portions of the Capital Region and within some north/south oriented valleys. Latest REFs suggest some gusts of 30-40 mph could occur in these areas through mid Friday morning before decreasing as the core of the low level jet passes by and weakens. As the cold front approaches from the west during the afternoon hours, some surface-based destabilization may occur, especially if some breaks of sun can develop. Latest HREFs and REFs suggest SB CAPES of 100-250 J/kg may develop for areas south of I-90. Strengthening mid level winds will allow 0-6 km shear to increase to 50-60 KT amid this instability, parallel to the incoming front. This suggests the possibility of a low topped line of showers/thunderstorms to develop which could produce a few instances of damaging wind gusts. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for areas mainly south of I-90 accordingly. Even in the absence of convection, as the front passes through, some wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible Friday evening. In the wake of the front, blustery conditions will develop Friday night and continue into Saturday with northwest winds gusting 25-35 mph, perhaps a bit stronger Saturday morning as mixing deepens. Some lingering moisture in the wake of the front, partially from Lake Effect, will allow for some snow showers across higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT late Friday night into Saturday morning, where some coatings to less than one half inch of snow accumulation will be possible. A few flurries/sprinkles could even occur across the eastern Catskills, the Berkshires, and at lower elevations such as the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region Saturday morning. High temperatures Saturday should only reach the 30s to lower 40s across higher elevations, with mainly 40s for valley regions. Combined with brisk winds, wind chill temperatures ("feels-like" temperatures) will be in the 20s/lower 30s for higher terrain, and 30s in valleys through much of the day. KEY MESSAGE 2... After an unseasonably cold morning Sunday with low temps mainly in the 20s, temperatures should moderate into the 50s for most areas by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to moderate to seasonable levels early next week with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s in valleys. Generally dry conditions are expected through early next week at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals throughout this afternoon and evening, with some passing high clouds and light northerly winds. Clouds will start to gradually build in overnight while winds remain light, with some low level clouds begin to develop by 04Z-06Z Friday at all terminals as widespread rain moves in from the west. Winds will also start to strengthen around this time, prevailing out of the south to southeast, with gusts gradually strengthening up to 20-30 kts at all terminals except for KPOU, which is expected to see slightly weaker gusts around 15-20 kts. The aforementioned rain will continue throughout Friday morning, bringing MVFR conditions to all terminals, although pockets of heavier rainfall could bring periods of IFR vis and cigs to KGFL, KALB, and KPSF. LLWS is expected at all terminals throughout Friday morning as well, with winds at 2 kft expected to reach up to 35-45 kts. The rain will begin to move east out of the region by late Friday morning, bringing improvements in vis at all terminals. However, IFR to MVFR cigs will stick around through the end of the TAF period with the potential for a few lingering showers. Gusty winds will also persist through the end of the TAF period at all terminals and slightly shift to out of the south-southwest to southwest. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53/24 AVIATION...23  885 FXUS61 KBTV 151730 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 130 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 235 AM EDT Thursday... Risk for gusty winds on Friday has increased, mainly in the Champlain Valley. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 235 AM EDT Thursday... 1. After a quiet day today, a storm system brings gusty winds, rain, and mountain snow Friday through Saturday. 2. Temperatures trend near to below normal Sunday night through Thursday with mostly dry conditions prevailing. && .DISCUSSION... As of 235 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Other than some patchy drizzle/fog early this morning, expect today will be a dry day with skies becoming partly sunny. Winds will subside as high pressure builds across the region. Highs will be seasonable though on the chilly side as most spots will top out in the 50s. Things become much more interesting thereafter as an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes tonight into Friday, eventually swinging over our region on Saturday. The associated surface low will lift through the St Lawrence Valley, then move east-northeast through the Crown of Maine and toward the Canadian Maritimes. Moisture will stream northward on deep southwest flow ahead of the trough, resulting in increasing clouds tonight. Given the dry airmass that will be in place, rain will be a little slower to develop, but expect widespread precipitation to develop by daybreak Friday. A potent 55+ kt jet wrapping around the surface low at 850 mb will move overhead on Friday, leading to very windy conditions atop mountain summits; gusts of 55-65 mph are likely. Winds at lower levels are a bit harder to determine, but note that several of the CAMs indicate we could see a some breaks in the rain mid-day Friday with the main swath of rain lifting north of the international border. This means less potential hindrance for mixing, increasing potential of gusts of 30 mph or more at lower elevations. The Champlain Valley would be particularly susceptible to strong gusts due to channeling of the south winds up the Valley. Note that the 15/00z HREF indicates 85-100% probabilities of gusts greater than 40 mph along Lake Champlain and the eastern side of the Champlain Valley, from the international border down toward Hinesburg and Bristol. The northern slopes of the northern Greens have similar chances of strong winds, with 90+% in locations such as Newport, Montgomery, and Glover. Have bumped up gusts with this forecast package, though have kept them below Wind Advisory level (46 mph). However, it looks like some places could get close to needing an Advisory; subsequent shifts will need to monitor trends closely. The surface low pressure slides by just to our north Friday afternoon, allowing us to nudge into the 50s to close to 60F. However, once the low moves to our east, its attendant cold front will quickly sweep through our area, bringing much colder temperatures later Friday and Friday night. The incoming airmass will also be quite dry, but expect there will be enough moisture around to squeeze out a bit of mountain snow later Friday night into Saturday morning before precipitation ends Saturday afternoon. With temperatures dropping into the mid 20s to mid 30s by Saturday morning, even the lower elevations could see a few flakes, though any accumulation looks to remain limited to 1500 ft and above. Even there, though, expect an inch at most given the decreasing moisture and relatively warm ground. Saturday will see decreasing clouds and much colder temperatures. Highs will only reach into the mid 30s to low 40s, and expect the summits to remain in the teens and 20s through the day. Winds will still be gusty though not quite as strong as Friday. However, they'll be enough to produce wind chills in the teens and 20s Saturday morning, with the higher summits seeing wind chills in the single digits. Anyone who plans to be recreating in the mountains should prepare for wet, windy, and bitterly cold conditions Friday through Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure over the mid-Atlantic is expected to strengthen Sunday night and Monday, expanding into New England to start the work week. Global deterministic models differ on the exact placement of this high pressure, which could have some minor impacts for coastal New England, but up in northern New York and Vermont, dry weather seems very likely Sunday night through at least next Thursday despite a couple week frontal boundaries that swing through the region. High temperatures each day should remain around seasonable values in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Nights will remain on the chilly side with lows in the upper 20s to lower 40s due to the clearer nights and decoupled boundary layer winds under high pressure. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions will persist through 06Z with ceilings steadily dropping to 2500 feet between 6Z and 9Z. Further reduction of ceilings into the 800-1200 ft range is expected by 12Z at most, if not all, terminals as rainfall overspread the region at the same time. Visibilities will drop to 3-5 SM for many sites with periodic decreases below 3 SM possible. Winds will continue from the north this afternoon with a switch to the south after 06Z. Winds will be in the 35 to 35 knot range from the south throughout the day on Friday with some KBTV possibly exceeding 40 knots during the afternoon. Wind shear will be a major concern tomorrow with winds in the 50 to 60 knot range at 2000 ft so wind shear has been included in all terminals. This wind shear will develop between 9Z and 12Z and likely linger well past 18Z on Friday. Outlook... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... North to northwest winds of 15 to 25 kt will continue through early this morning before gradually winding down by mid day. After briefly calmer conditions this afternoon and tonight, south winds will increase again on Friday, sustained 20 to 30 kt with higher gusts expected. && .CLIMATE... Daily low maximum temperatures will likely be broken on Saturday. Current records are indicated below at some climate sites in our region: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: October 17: KBTV: 42/1970 KPBG: 44/2015 KSLK: 36/1970 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings DISCUSSION...Storm/Hastings AVIATION...Clay MARINE...NWS BTV CLIMATE...NWS BTV  869 FXUS64 KMRX 151730 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 130 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Another hot day today with record highs possible. - A few showers possible north today, with more showers expected Friday afternoon through evening. - Frost is possible Saturday night, and to a lesser extent on Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 In the upper levels, a ridge remains centered over the Southeast. At the surface, a stalling boundary is stretched over Kentucky and west Tennessee. Currently, showers and storms are present upstream along the aforementioned boundary. CAMs have this line dissipating before or as it moves into our region but a few stray showers are possible mainly near the Upper Cumberland Plateau and Southwest Virginia. Today, the front will lift north but a few showers will be possible mainly in Southwest Virginia. Today will be hot again with highs in the 80s. All three climate sites are forecast to break or tie the record high today. CHA and TRI broke their record highs yesterday (Wed). Record highs Today: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021) Thursday night, a deep trough will move into the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley by afternoon. The surface low will move through the Great Lakes and into New England bringing a cold front through the Tennessee Valley in the late afternoon or early evening hours on Friday. Winds will be gusty Friday afternoon and evening with gusts up to 30 mph likely at times. The best chance for showers will be Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee and along the East Tennessee mountains and foothills in the late afternoon and evening hours. Thunder chances will be low with low instability expected. The weekend will be dry and much cooler with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday. Only slightly warmer on Sunday with highs in the mid 60s. Temperatures will be cold enough for frost on Saturday and Sunday nights mainly in Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee and the higher elevations. Early next week will be dry with highs warming into the 70s by Tuesday as ridging and high pressure dominate the Southeast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Quiet aviation conditions are expected with southerly to southwesterly winds and some clouds around 5,000 to 10,000 feet AGL. A few showers are possible north of TRI but no impact expected at the terminal. Overnight, light and variable winds are expected with patchy fog possible for some. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 63 82 50 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 66 82 50 / 0 0 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 87 63 81 48 / 10 0 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 62 80 47 / 10 0 70 80 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...BW  120 FXUS62 KCAE 151734 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 134 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Guidance showing increasing potential for showers with the cold front this weekend. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Near-record warmth through Friday. - 2. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region Friday night, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Near-record warmth through Friday. Anomalously hot temperatures continue across the forecast area today and tomorrow beneath an anomalously strong ridge and ahead of a strong cold front progged to push through Friday night. We are already sitting in the upper 80s across the area, likely to break record highs again this afternoon. This is probably going to happen again on Friday given compressional heating ahead of the approaching front, though guidance is slightly cooler than today/Wednesday. Generally highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected. Key Message 2: A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region Friday night, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. The forecast remains on track, with some notable wrenches that are increasingly appearing in guidance. Guidance has slowed the front down slightly on Friday night over the last couple of days; even still, it is forecast to pass through the area between 10p Friday and 3a Saturday. Cooler air is forecast to rush into the area behind it, with strong gusty winds expected as well. The trough forcing all of this has trended much sharper over the last several days, with guidance now showing some form of the trough cutting off to our east by Saturday night or Sunday. It is unlikely, but there is still a small cluster of ensemble guidance that is trying to cut the upper low off closer to us, which would impact our weather more than expected. The passing blow of light showers expected early Saturday morning would linger longer in this scenario and have some downstream impacts with temps. This is an unlikely scenario but does have some support in the deterministic guidance as well. Regardless, some showers are likely early on Saturday as the front clears, moisture lags a bit behind, and intense synoptic lift allows for some rain to develop. Winds are forecast to be quite breezy on Saturday. BUFKIT time/height plots suggest that wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible during the day as a cool and dry airmass rapidly advects into the area. We will need a Lake Wind Advisory and honestly are bordering on Wind Advisory criteria. If the coastal low develops a bit earlier and closer to us than is currently expected, we definitely will need to watch for stronger gusts. Sunday will be quite chilly with temps in the low 60s and overnight lows in the 40s. From there, a modest warm up closer to normal is expected into next week. Given presence of northeasterly flow and strong high pressure, cool temps and dry air is expected deep into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 24hr forecast period. Sunny skies under high pressure today with only light southwesterly flow around 5 knots. Winds should subside with sunset to light and variable or calm overnight. Some guidance (HRRR with SREF support) is suggesting some stratus/fog developing along the Coastal Plain and possibly impacting OGB and AGS. Confidence remains limited so left out of the forecast but if trends improve may need to include a TEMPO group for OGB 10-13z time frame. AGS could also see the intermittent IFR vsbys similar to last night. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions through the period. A strong cold front will approach the region on Friday and an increased pressure gradient with result in southwesterly winds increasing to around 10 knots after 15z with some higher gusts likely by afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A front will move across the area Friday night into Saturday. Although precipitation is expected to be limited, breezy W/SW winds are expected Friday evening shifting to a northerly direction on Saturday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PL AVIATION...23  128 FXUS63 KBIS 151735 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph develop this morning behind a cold front. The winds will continue into this evening before gradually diminishing from northwest to southeast tonight. - Widespread freezing temperatures are possible Thursday night into Friday morning, especially over western locations. - Notably milder temperatures to end the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The forecast remains on track, thus no deviations from the last update. Peak wind gusts have been observed to around 50 mph thus far today, with strong winds expected through the daytime hours. Low level stratus has encompassed all of western and central North Dakota, with isolated to scattered light showers moving through as well. UPDATE Issued at 1021 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Strong cold front continues southeast across the region. Main changes with this update was to modify sky cover to better time the arrival of low level stratus surging in behind the FROPA. I also opted to go coverage for showers (isolated/scattered) for this afternoon and evening. Wind headlines on track. UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Cold front has now pushed through western and much of north central North Dakota, with northwest winds increasing in its wake. Going forecast remains in good shape. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current surface analysis places low over western Manitoba with cold front dropping down through western North Dakota into northwest South Dakota, while high settles through Alberta into western/central Montana. Upper level analysis places low over Colorado, with northern stream short wave now pushing through Saskatchewan nudging into the Northern Plains. For today, aforementioned front will continue its progression through the state with winds increasing in its wake given the pressure gradient and cold air advection. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that ongoing mention of gusts to 55 mph in the Wind Advisory remain reasonable across the area. The only change to the headline was to extend the expiration of the James River Valley and parts of south central North Dakota into the overnight hours as winds look to be slow to diminish over that area. Along with the wind, expect to see a few light rain showers in the wake of the front with the passing short wave. Expect this could lead to some brief enhancement of wind gusts as light showers pass through. As we go through tonight, high slides into western North Dakota and skies clear, which will allow temperatures to drop off to below freezing. The question is how far east the skies will clear out over central North dakota allowing temperatures to drop off. Therefore, will hold off on any freeze headlines for now until we can get another look at this later today. On Friday, surface high slides off to the south/east, while upper ridging to the west slides easterly. This will allow temperatures to rebound, though highs will still be a bit below average. Upper ridge continues its easterly progression going into Saturday, when temperatures will climb well above average, with mid 60s to mid 70s through the area. Seasonably mild temperatures and dry conditions continue into the first part of the upcoming week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front will result in gusty northwesterly winds today, linger into the evening hours. MVFR ceilings, along with the potential for isolated/scattered showers, are also expected for most of the state behind the front. Winds will diminish and ceilings will improvelate this evening through the overnight hours from northwest to southeast. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-031>033-035-040>044- 055>062. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ023-025-036-037- 046>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...NH  135 FXUS63 KILX 151735 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers will develop this morning, become more numerous through midday, and taper off from west to east tonight. Thunderstorms are also possible, especially this afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around a half inch for most areas, but localized swaths of 1 to 3 inches are possible this afternoon and evening. - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening near and south of I-72. SPC has a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, including a 5 percent damaging wind risk and 2 percent tornado risk. - Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely Friday morning through afternoon. The stronger winds will be northwest of I-55. - Much cooler weather will settle into the region Friday through the weekend potentially resulting in areas of frost both Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front now well south of the area early this morning will lift northward as a surface low developing in the southern Plains lifts northeastward toward central IL. The front should lift through central IL during the afternoon hours, bringing 70 degree dewpoints to much of the area and SBCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg to around to I-72 corridor, coincident with 40-50 kt deep layer shear. 150-250 Storm Relative Helicity values are also forecast in this area, suggesting a few tornadoes will be possible. SPC has a Marginal Risk for Severe thunderstorms for a threat of locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes possible. The cold front trailing the low should begin to push into west central IL by afternoon, and cross the remainder of central and southeast IL through the evening hours. High resolution models depict scattered showers developing mainly west of I-57 this morning as an initial upper level disturbance and low level moist-warm advection takes place. A small break is then depicted before another disturbance and the warm front approaches mid morning into early afternoon. While many high-res models decrease shower coverage during the afternoon hours, this is also the period where a few models depict a few supercells developing in the warm sector behind the warm front, with significant scatter among model solutions on when/where breaks or supercells will be developing. More consistency develops with clearing behind the cold front, as showers look to end west of I-55 by midnight, west of I-57 by 4 AM Friday, and throughout IL by 7 AM Friday. High resolution model ensembles depict average precipitation amounts of around a half inch, but also depict a few swaths of 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall will generally be beneficial with mostly dry conditions preceding the past few days, but 2 to 3 inch amounts could produce some locally excessive amounts and WPC indicates a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from around I-72 southward. Behind tonight's strong cold front, a strong pressure gradient develops over the area for Friday, which should set up 15-20 mph northwest winds, with gusts 30-40 mph, with the higher values west of I-55. A potent upper level shortwave and 500 mb cold pocket of minus 25 C will promote scattered shower activity and cloud cover. Highs should only reach the mid 50s for a very cold/blustery feel compared with recent record warmth. Friday night, high pressure will migrate eastward toward the Mississippi Valley, weakening the pressure gradient over especially western portions of central IL. With temperatures dropping into the mid 30s and the light winds, it appears areas of frost will develop west of I-57, but to the east enough wind should remain to keep temperatures in the upper 30s without frost. By Sunday morning, the high should migrate toward the mid-Atlantic coast, with winds already beginning to pick up from the south by morning. Nevertheless, mid-30s temperatures and frost potential looks to cover the entire area as the wind will likely be too little/too late to prevent it. Southerly flow and a building ridge of high pressure will bring a warming trend starting Sunday, raising highs from upper 50s Saturday to upper 60s Sunday. Further warming through midweek should bring highs to mid to upper 70s by Wednesday. Dry conditions will continue Saturday through midweek under the influence of the surface high followed by upper ridge. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 18z TAFs are long. There is a lot going on. Ceilings will mainly be IFR/MVFR with brief windows with VFR conditions. The biggest VFR window is tomorrow morning for a few hours before the backside of the low pivots into the area. There are showers and thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon, continuing into the evening. This activity is indicated with PROB30/TEMPO groups for 20z-02z across the sites. Winds out of the southeast will bcome northerly overnight. Wind speeds will pick up over the period, with gusts around 30 knots expected after 06z tonight, lasting through the remainder of the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...37 DISCUSSION...37 AVIATION...Copple  141 FXUS65 KPIH 151735 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1135 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon highs gradually warm over the next several days. - Dry conditions are also expected through the weekend. - Wetter and cooler conditions return for the second half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure is building in over parts of the West today and will move directly over our area on Friday. This means we can expect dry conditions for the next several days and a warming trend is underway. While temperatures will start in the low to mid 30s for most this morning, we warm into the upper 50s and low 60s this afternoon. Highs warm a few more degrees for Friday and Saturday afternoons and Saturday looks the be the warmest day for most with highs in the low to mid 60s. This warm up has backed off a little bit from what it looked like the last few days where now, there's only about a 25 percent chance that areas around Burley reach 70 degrees for the high on Saturday. During the first half of next week, an upper level low drops southward along the West Coast. Now, the ECMWF and GFS have very different solutions on where exactly this low will track and how quickly it will move. However, it does seem like we will see increasing precipitation chances in the second half of next week thanks to this system along with some cooler temperatures meaning highs back in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1129 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Expect VFR conditions through the period and through out the foreseeable future. High pressure is in place and is forecast to remain through at least Saturday. Expect clear skies and overall light winds today and likely through Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will be in control of our forecast for the rest of this week and through the weekend. Highs will continue to gradually warm with most returning to the mid 60s by Saturday afternoon. Dry conditions across the area mean min RHs drop to 15-25 percent in the Central Mountains on Friday, which looks to be the driest day of the next several. It's not until next week that we see highs drop back into the 50s and precipitation chances return to the forecast. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMM AVIATION...TW FIRE WEATHER...AMM  142 FXUS66 KHNX 151735 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1035 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Red Flag Warning issued for the Sierra Nevada above 4000 feet due to high winds and low relative humidity from Thursday morning through Friday evening. 2. Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert zones from Thursday AM through Friday night with wind gusting up to 55mph. 3. A warming trend continues through the weekend before a cooldown next week. 4. A pattern change may be upon us early next week as a disturbance crosses the West and introduces unsettled conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Welcome to this morning's Forecast Discussion, our reader's favorite time of the day! Today and Friday will be troublesome times for our mountain and desert communities. Strong high pressure (with 500 millibar heights above the 90th percentile climate record for today) has set up over Northern California and will remain near stationary through Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure centered over the tri-point of AZ, CA, and Baja California is expected to deepen and slide southwest-ward off the coast tonight. Cutting to the chase, this will bring strong winds from the east across our region's mountains and high desert. More information on wind products and fire danger will presented in the Fire Weather section of the discussion. Unfortunately, with strong high pressure also comes warmer temperatures. Across the San Joaquin Valley, temperatures will reach about 10 degrees above average Friday and Saturday. But while afternoon highs in the low 90s are expected, good overnight recovery cooling to the mid-50s to low-60s will limit any potential heat illness risk just to those very sensitive to heat. By the start of the work week, high pressure is expected to weaken, move eastward, and quickly transition back to pleasant, fall- like temperatures. Along with quickly transitioning back to more typical fall weather, figurative and literal storm clouds return to California some time next week as a shortwave trough crosses into the area from the Pacific Ocean. The expected, 50/50 scenario according to this morning's run of the National Blend of Models (NBM) places light rain of a tenth to quarter inch in the Sierra Nevada Tuesday through Thursday. Wetter, more aggressive scenarios with a less than 50 percent chance of occuring also show light rain between a trace to quarter inch for the San Joaquin Valley. But as this event is 5-7 days ahead, specifics are yet to come. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 PM Friday evening for the Sierra Nevada, Tehachapi, and San Emigdio mountains above 4,000 feet due to strong winds from the east and low humidity. Confidence for easterly gusts exceeding 40 MPH is highest (70-90 percent chance) tonight into Friday morning, though isolated areas will experience gusts this fast through the entire warned period. Minimum relative humidity today and Friday expected between 15-25 percent in the warned areas, with dryer areas as low as 10 percent. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT Friday for CAZ337>339. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT Friday for CAZ592>597. && $$ public...ND aviation....Moore weather.gov/hanford  282 FXUS61 KPBZ 151739 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 139 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain shower chances have decreased today. Added a mention of thunder on Friday with a strong cold front. A portion of the area generally east of I-79 has been included in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with damaging winds on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers, possible thunderstorms, and gusty wind tonight and Fri. 2) Colder behind the front, with frost and freeze conditions Sat night. Frost may be possible again Sun night. 3) Dry and warmer next week, but the forecast has very low predictability at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Storms forming in the Midwest today have a low probability of maintaining strength tonight as a low-level jet and nwd- advancing warm front help maintain only modest stabilization in a moistening boundary layer. If storms are maintained, it will be possible to see a stronger gust or two, but the likelihood of impactful weather tonight remains low. Of greater concern is potential for stronger low-topped convective development on Fri, where buoyancy concentrated in the lower levels of the atmosphere will overlap favorably with convergence within a pre-frontal trough within a moderately sheared environment. There remains timing/positional uncertainty in the placement of the pre-frontal trough convergence zone, with some guidance suggesting a slower progression. If this slower progression materializes, there will be better potential for destabilization as enhanced ascent overspreads the region within a strong mid- level jet streak. Better potential for severe weather exists to the east of the Upper Ohio Valley, but at this time, we cannot rule out the potential for the wrn position of the initiating boundary. If it becomes clear that the boundary is favoring earlier passage, the severe weather threat locally will be minimized. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold advection in the wake of a strong cold-frontal passage will support renewal of lake-enhanced showers Fri night within a plume of steeper low-level lapse rates. Temperature is not expected to cool sufficiently for notable snow, although low (<10%) chances for snow exist at the highest elevations of the WV ridges thru the weekend. Elevated wind and cloud cover Fri night are likely to preclude frost/freeze concerns, but conditions will become more favorable Sat night as wind slackens and cloud cover dissipates. Cluster analysis suggests two potential H5 patterns that will govern the Sat/Sun evolution: 1) The scenario that is more likely suggests the H5 trough advancing bodily ewd, with cold air building in Sat night leading to widespread temperature in the 30-35F range and potential frost/freeze conditions. 2) A second scenario features low pressure cutting off from the main trough, leading to a quicker departure, less cold air intrusion, and cooler temperature/frost potential favoring mainly the ridges/northeasternmost zones. Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) suggests that the second scenario is driven by the strength of a H5 ridge currently building in the wrn CONUS, and the timing of phasing of TS Simon into the broader flow. If the ridge is stronger and TS Simon slower to phase, it favors a cutoff low development and warmer outcome as discussed in Outcome 2 above. Monitor the forecast for frost/freeze potential. Greatest confidence in impactful temperature will be the northeastern zones, as temps of 30-35 are most likely there in either outcome above. KEY MESSAGE 3... In the wake of the trough, quite a bit of uncertainty grows with the medium-range pattern next week. Much of the guidance favors a H5 ridge building across the Midwest, suggesting increasing warmth for the Upper Ohio Valley. However, other guidance suggests troughing could develop, which would favor cooler temperature. The degree of ridging or troughing in the east appears highly correlated to the position of a wrn-CONUS trough/potential cutoff low around Mon/Tue timeframe. Given this wide variability and dependence on atmospheric flow features that do not yet exist, the forecast next week has very low predictability, and should be consumed with that awareness. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Due to dry air advection from northerly flow at the surface, some areas of MVFR cigs eroded, however, redevelopment of these cigs is likely later today as the flow gradually veers to the east. For those outside this clearing, mainly MVFR cigs are forecast through much of the day as a warm front begins to lift north toward the region. Further deterioration to low MVFR, and eventually IFR, is expected this evening and tonight as the front crosses, and showers overspread the region. There could be isolated thunderstorms as well with elevated instability and a crossing low level jet. This jet should also result in a LLWS potential from late evening through the overnight hours. Overnight, we will also see the wind veer from east to south as conditions remain relatively breezy. By tomorrow morning, areas around PIT and south, are forecast to briefly scatter out by tomorrow morning. During the day, a strong cold front will bring showers and possible thunderstorms along with wind freshening up as it veers to the west. Gusts up to 30-40kts are likely with higher gusts up to 45-50kts possible across the higher terrain airports. Outlook... Showers will continue Friday night under subsequent upper troughing. Building high pressure will return dry weather Saturday into next week. Wind will also diminish on Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kramar AVIATION...WM/Lupo  246 FXUS63 KICT 151738 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Off-and-on showers, drizzle, and a few embedded thunderstorms will gradually exit to the east today. Localized minor flooding remains possible over mainly southeast KS. - Much cooler air filtering south through Friday and Saturday, with lows Saturday morning falling into the 30s, and frost likely across much of the area. - Warming trend next week, with showers/thunderstorms possible once again by mid-late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 PRECIPITATION CHANCES: TODAY...The upper low and associated deep cold frontal zone will traverse the region, with continued scattered to numerous showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms and areas of drizzle, mainly this morning, with precipitation chances gradually exiting to the east this afternoon. Still looking at the potential for localized modest to briefly high rainfall rates, especially overnight through early morning over far southeast KS. However, given the limited instability, rainfall rates will likely remain less than one inch per hour for most, so a higher-end flash flood threat appears unlikely, with any minor flooding likely confined to low-lying and typical flood-prone areas. The current flood watch runs through midday, and we may be able to cancel all or portions of it early. For this afternoon, could have renewed scattered shower/storm development over southeast KS in vicinity of the advancing cold front. Despite decent effective shear, severe weather is unlikely given meager instability and poor lapse rates. SUNDAY NIGHT--MONDAY...A stubborn southwest CONUS upper low is expected to finally eject east-northeast this weekend, possibly bring some low precipitation chances to Mid-America Sunday night into Monday. Lift and moisture is not very impressive with this system, and the GFS has backed off some, so left the forecast dry for now. MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports another deep western CONUS upper trough taking shape next week, which could support another round of showers/thunderstorms across the region by mid to especially late week. Still quite a bit of uncertainty and model spread, so stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days. TEMPERATURES & WIND: TODAY...Had to undercut NBM high temperatures once again today due to widespread clouds/precipitation and the cooler airmass spreading southeast across the region. That said, thinking central KS will stay in the 50s today, with 60s and 70s further southeast. Stout/gusty north winds will gradually expand southeast today as the surface pressure gradient tightens in wake of the advancing cold front. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A deepening central to eastern North American upper trough will drive strong Canadian high pressure south into Mid- America, supporting the coolest air thus far this fall season. High temperatures in the 50s to lows 60s appear likely. Additionally, stout/gusty north winds Friday will make it feel even cooler. The coolest night will be Friday night, with lows likely dipping into the 30s for most underneath the strong high pressure. Given the light winds and clear skies, frost is looking probable for much of the forecast area with the exception of possibly far southeast KS early Saturday. SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Model consensus supports a quick return to seasonable or even above normal temperatures next week, as another deep upper trough sets up over the western CONUS, with breezy south winds developing once again by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Main aviation concerns will be low ceilings along with reduced visibility due to drizzle, fog and light rain. Cold front has pushed through Wichita and is moving into the Flint Hills. Near or right behind the front we are seeing some drizzle/light rain along with fog that may reduce vis some. In addition, some pockets of light rain are also lingering across parts of south central KS. Also still seeing an area of showers extend from southwest OK through southeast KS as 850mb moisture transport remains in place. This will continue for the next 3-5 hours before pushing east. Behind the front we are seeing mostly MVFR cigs with pockets of IFR lingering. As drier air continues to spill south, we should see mostly MVFR transitioning to VFR over the next few hours, especially across central KS. Last but not least, strong northwest winds are anticipated area wide by late Fri morning across the entire area, with gusts in the 30-35kt range likely. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...RBL  234 FXUS64 KLCH 151737 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag for central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas on Friday. Fire danger statement for the rest of the region. - Fire weather watch on Saturday for the entire CWA. - High winds Friday and Saturday will result in Wind Advisories as well as hazardous sea conditions. Gale conditions possible late Friday. - Low Water possible for southeast Texas Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The rest of today will be fairly calm with light south to southeast winds. This will be the last muggy day, as a cold front will sweep across the region late tonight and into the early morning on Friday. With the front will come much cooler weather, with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. Friday and Saturday will be the most impactful days of the forecast with wind and fire weather hazards across the region. Starting on Friday, with the passage of the cold front early in the morning, wind speeds will be elevated across the region with winds between 15 and 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. These winds will quickly reach the coast, where they will increase with offshore winds approaching Gale strength by Friday night. A Red Flag Warning is in place for the northern counties and parishes in the CWA. The biggest limiting factor on Friday will be a mismatch between the lowest RH and highest wind gusts as the driest air moves in, with the driest air making its way into our area after sunset. One thing that we will need to watch is the possibility for dry air at 850 mb to be mixed down with the gusty winds. This would lead to RH values plummeting early and could extend the elevated fire risk farther south than expected on Friday. The SPC has highlighted most of north and central Louisiana in an elevated fire risk for Friday and most of the state on Saturday. Taking a closer look on Saturday, the dry air will be firmly in place, and after sunrise north winds will be sustained between 15 and 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Another Fire Weather Watch is in place area-wide for Saturday, and a Red Flag Warning looks likely for most of the area. With the ongoing drought, KBDI values are above 700. Fuels are also dry, with 10-hour fuels showing RH values below 20%. As stated in the previous AFD, it is imperative not to burn anything for the next several days. Pay attention to any local burn bans and report fires to local authorities. As we go into next week, high pressure on the Eastern Seaboard will give us a primarily easterly wind, while a ridge building aloft will keep our dry streak going. Temperatures will slowly rise next week, getting back into the low 90s or high 80s by midweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will continue for most of the forecast period. Late at night, we could see patchy MVFR fog, but a frontal passage around 6 to 7 AM will quickly wipe out any fog. With the frontal passage, winds will shift from south to north with gusty winds up to 30 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front passage early Friday morning will lead to strong offshore winds, and a Gale Watch is in place for nearshore and outer coastal waters. Winds will weaken slightly overnight Friday before picking back up on Saturday. Sustained winds will be over 30 knots with frequent gusts up to 45 knots possible. Waves will quickly respond to the winds, building to 11 feet in the outer coastal waters and up to 5 feet in the nearshore waters. Sabine Pass and Texas Pass both approachlow water advisory levels on Friday and Saturday during low tide, but it does not look like they will reach the -1.0 feet below MLLW necessary for an advisory. At the start of the week, conditions will begin to improve with winds falling below 20 knots for nearshore waters by Sunday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The SPC has highlighted central Louisiana for an elevated fire risk on Friday and most of the state on Saturday. As a cold front sweeps across the area, strong north winds will lead to plummeting dew points, with minRH through the weekend below 30%. Friday night moisture recovery will be lacking, with maxRH only around 50 to 60%. A Red Flag Warning is in place for central Louisiana with a fire danger statement for the rest of the CWA. Saturday is the more concerning of the two days, with low RH values lining up with 20-foot winds near 15 mph; gusts will be frequent and higher. No rain is expected with this front, and the average KBDI value is over 700 across much of the region. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>030. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154- 241>243-252>254. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ029- 032-033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-259-260. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ515- 516-615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ430-432-435-436. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...14  502 FXUS64 KJAN 151743 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1243 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated threat for fire danger conditions continue through the weekend. - A significant dry cold front will bring gusty northwest winds, worsened fire danger and wildfire concerns to the area tomorrow on Friday. - Very little, if any, rainfall is expected through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Through early mid next week (Wednesday)... Today: Morning surface and GOES East water vapor/RAP analysis indicate mean ridge around 592-594DM centered over the Gulf Coast states. Dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures (highs in 92-96F range and lows around 60 degrees in east MS to mid to upper 60s in central to northwest Delta) will persist. Additional record highs could tie or be eclipsed today. There remains efficient afternoon mixing/low humidity into critical levels (25 to 35 percent range) for continued Elevated fire danger which persist through the weekend. Heat indices will peak in the low to mid 90s today. The position of the ridge will continue a southeasterly fetch of return flow. High pressure will keep winds relatively light. Late week through early next week (Friday into Tuesday): Fall frontal passage remains likely Friday. An upper low currently over the Rockies will phase with deepening trough axis/upper jet diving into central Canada and southeast into the northern Plains to Mid MS Valley. This will help an amplified meridional and positively tilted trough. Stout, dry cold front will drive dewpoints falling into the mid to upper 30s (36-45F). Cannot rule out a rouge shower but overall majority areas will remain dry. Cool down remains likely this weekend. Highs will be seasonably warm Friday (72-78F in the Delta and 83-91F in southeast of the Delta), with lows in the low to mid 60s (61-66F) that morning and lows that night mid to upper 40s to low 50s north of Interstate 20 (45-50F) to mid to upper 50s (50- 53F) to the south. With continued drought stressed vegetation, this strong gusty front will likely increase fire danger concerns. The cold front will move into the Delta around daybreak Friday, Interstate 20 around midday and out of the area by early evening. 1030-1040mb surface high building will build east out of the lee side of the Rockies through the Mid West, leading to 6-8mb pressure gradient and resultant gusty gradient wind of 20-25mph sustained and wind gusts reaching 30-35mph at times. This will be a concern, so continue to monitor for any fire related headlines. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect across the region. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a Day 2 Elevated fire weather outlook for areas west of Interstate 55. There will efficient mixing but humidity may be slightly higher than today, so Elevated graphic still fits and will persist through the weekend. As the trough digs across the Eastern Seaboard and cuts off the Atlantic seaboard, ridge over the western Gulf will amplify, with the axis over the ArkLaTex. Seasonable and pleasant fall temperatures will build areawide into Saturday and Sunday (highs of 69-74F Saturday and 70- 78F Sunday and lows of 41-45F north of Interstate 20 to 46-50F to the south). Quiet and dry weather will persist next week, with an Omega block pattern developing (trough over the Baja California and southwest US and another just off the Carolina coast). Low level return flow and deep dry moisture profiles will lead to moderating temperatures (low 80s early week to mid to upper 80s by late week) and lows becoming more seasonable. With continued drought, stressed vegetation and afternoon humidity nearing critical levels by mid week (25 to 35 percent),fire danger will likely persist. Holding off introducing anything for next week. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 As of 1742Z, all TAF sites are reporting VFR conditions. VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the period. By 09Z, southern TAF sites (KHBG, KPIB, and KHEZ) will start to see ceilings and visibilities drop to IFR/LIFR status due to low stratus and patch dense fog, with VFR ceilings elsewhere. Poor flying conditions will prevail across south MS through 14Z Friday. After 14Z, ceilings across southern sites will begin to gradually improve to VFR. Winds be to the south through the TAF period. By 13Z Friday winds will begin to shift to the north as a dry cold front pushes through our area. Gusty northerly winds will prevail across the area Friday afternoon with gusts in excess of 30 kts. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 63 81 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 61 85 49 69 / 0 0 10 0 Vicksburg 62 78 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 61 90 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 64 80 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 65 70 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 63 73 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074. LA...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ074-075. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ DC/CR  507 FXUS65 KSLC 151743 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1143 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... - A few showers will linger over portions of eastern Utah tonight before dry conditions develop areawide Thursday through the weekend with a gradual warming trend in temperatures. - Confidence remains relatively high that a more active pattern will return next week, though uncertainty is higher than usual in the timing or details of any systems that may move through. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... The slow moving low pressure system that has been impacting Utah and southwest Wyoming the past few days has moved into Colorado this evening. Most areas remain dry behind it, but some showers persist over eastern Utah on the back side of the system. As the low continues east overnight, the remaining precipitation will diminish. Temperatures stayed on the cold side today with maxes running 10-15F above seasonal normals. with a bit of a Rex Block pattern developing over the Pacific coast over the next few days, conditions will stay dry through the weekend with highs warming to near seasonal normals for Saturday and Sunday. Most guidance indicates the Rex Block breaking by Saturday as a Pacific Northwest trough moves it out of the way before tracking along the US/Canada border. The absence of the ridge would open up the West to a more active storm track next week. However, there remains considerable spread as to the timing and track of these systems. The most popular solution brings a Pacific system across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing primarily rain due to the warm nature of the system. A minority of guidance, however, (including the latest deterministic ECMWF) keep the low off the California coast through midweek, allowing dry conditions to persist longer. Models tend to struggle with closed low features, so hopefully more confidence in the details comes in future runs. && && .AVIATION, Issued 534 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026... KSLC...VFR conditions and light northwest winds will prevail throughout the day. There is a 30% chance winds become light southeasterly before 16Z this morning. Northwest winds will return to a southeasterly drainage wind this evening around 02Z. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Gusty easterly winds will develop at KEVW this morning and persist through the day, while winds at the remainder of northern TAF sites remain light northerly. Gusty northeast winds will develop at KCDC and KSGU by early afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure continues to build in the wake of the departing low pressure system keeping conditions moderated and calm. While the airmass remains cool and stable, clear skies will enable temperatures to continue to warm into next week, closer to near-normals for this time of year. Nearly all of UT is expected to remain dry through early next week ahead of an incoming system which is forecast to usher in more precipitation around midweek. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for UTZ116-118-119. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Seaman FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  502 FXUS64 KJAN 151743 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1243 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated threat for fire danger conditions continue through the weekend. - A significant dry cold front will bring gusty northwest winds, worsened fire danger and wildfire concerns to the area tomorrow on Friday. - Very little, if any, rainfall is expected through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Through early mid next week (Wednesday)... Today: Morning surface and GOES East water vapor/RAP analysis indicate mean ridge around 592-594DM centered over the Gulf Coast states. Dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures (highs in 92-96F range and lows around 60 degrees in east MS to mid to upper 60s in central to northwest Delta) will persist. Additional record highs could tie or be eclipsed today. There remains efficient afternoon mixing/low humidity into critical levels (25 to 35 percent range) for continued Elevated fire danger which persist through the weekend. Heat indices will peak in the low to mid 90s today. The position of the ridge will continue a southeasterly fetch of return flow. High pressure will keep winds relatively light. Late week through early next week (Friday into Tuesday): Fall frontal passage remains likely Friday. An upper low currently over the Rockies will phase with deepening trough axis/upper jet diving into central Canada and southeast into the northern Plains to Mid MS Valley. This will help an amplified meridional and positively tilted trough. Stout, dry cold front will drive dewpoints falling into the mid to upper 30s (36-45F). Cannot rule out a rouge shower but overall majority areas will remain dry. Cool down remains likely this weekend. Highs will be seasonably warm Friday (72-78F in the Delta and 83-91F in southeast of the Delta), with lows in the low to mid 60s (61-66F) that morning and lows that night mid to upper 40s to low 50s north of Interstate 20 (45-50F) to mid to upper 50s (50- 53F) to the south. With continued drought stressed vegetation, this strong gusty front will likely increase fire danger concerns. The cold front will move into the Delta around daybreak Friday, Interstate 20 around midday and out of the area by early evening. 1030-1040mb surface high building will build east out of the lee side of the Rockies through the Mid West, leading to 6-8mb pressure gradient and resultant gusty gradient wind of 20-25mph sustained and wind gusts reaching 30-35mph at times. This will be a concern, so continue to monitor for any fire related headlines. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect across the region. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a Day 2 Elevated fire weather outlook for areas west of Interstate 55. There will efficient mixing but humidity may be slightly higher than today, so Elevated graphic still fits and will persist through the weekend. As the trough digs across the Eastern Seaboard and cuts off the Atlantic seaboard, ridge over the western Gulf will amplify, with the axis over the ArkLaTex. Seasonable and pleasant fall temperatures will build areawide into Saturday and Sunday (highs of 69-74F Saturday and 70- 78F Sunday and lows of 41-45F north of Interstate 20 to 46-50F to the south). Quiet and dry weather will persist next week, with an Omega block pattern developing (trough over the Baja California and southwest US and another just off the Carolina coast). Low level return flow and deep dry moisture profiles will lead to moderating temperatures (low 80s early week to mid to upper 80s by late week) and lows becoming more seasonable. With continued drought, stressed vegetation and afternoon humidity nearing critical levels by mid week (25 to 35 percent),fire danger will likely persist. Holding off introducing anything for next week. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 As of 1742Z, all TAF sites are reporting VFR conditions. VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the period. By 09Z, southern TAF sites (KHBG, KPIB, and KHEZ) will start to see ceilings and visibilities drop to IFR/LIFR status due to low stratus and patch dense fog, with VFR ceilings elsewhere. Poor flying conditions will prevail across south MS through 14Z Friday. After 14Z, ceilings across southern sites will begin to gradually improve to VFR. Winds be to the south through the TAF period. By 13Z Friday winds will begin to shift to the north as a dry cold front pushes through our area. Gusty northerly winds will prevail across the area Friday afternoon with gusts in excess of 30 kts. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 63 81 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 61 85 49 69 / 0 0 10 0 Vicksburg 62 78 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 61 90 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 64 80 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 65 70 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 63 73 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074. LA...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ074-075. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ DC/CR  507 FXUS65 KSLC 151743 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1143 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... - A few showers will linger over portions of eastern Utah tonight before dry conditions develop areawide Thursday through the weekend with a gradual warming trend in temperatures. - Confidence remains relatively high that a more active pattern will return next week, though uncertainty is higher than usual in the timing or details of any systems that may move through. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... The slow moving low pressure system that has been impacting Utah and southwest Wyoming the past few days has moved into Colorado this evening. Most areas remain dry behind it, but some showers persist over eastern Utah on the back side of the system. As the low continues east overnight, the remaining precipitation will diminish. Temperatures stayed on the cold side today with maxes running 10-15F above seasonal normals. with a bit of a Rex Block pattern developing over the Pacific coast over the next few days, conditions will stay dry through the weekend with highs warming to near seasonal normals for Saturday and Sunday. Most guidance indicates the Rex Block breaking by Saturday as a Pacific Northwest trough moves it out of the way before tracking along the US/Canada border. The absence of the ridge would open up the West to a more active storm track next week. However, there remains considerable spread as to the timing and track of these systems. The most popular solution brings a Pacific system across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing primarily rain due to the warm nature of the system. A minority of guidance, however, (including the latest deterministic ECMWF) keep the low off the California coast through midweek, allowing dry conditions to persist longer. Models tend to struggle with closed low features, so hopefully more confidence in the details comes in future runs. && && .AVIATION, Issued 534 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026... KSLC...VFR conditions and light northwest winds will prevail throughout the day. There is a 30% chance winds become light southeasterly before 16Z this morning. Northwest winds will return to a southeasterly drainage wind this evening around 02Z. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Gusty easterly winds will develop at KEVW this morning and persist through the day, while winds at the remainder of northern TAF sites remain light northerly. Gusty northeast winds will develop at KCDC and KSGU by early afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure continues to build in the wake of the departing low pressure system keeping conditions moderated and calm. While the airmass remains cool and stable, clear skies will enable temperatures to continue to warm into next week, closer to near-normals for this time of year. Nearly all of UT is expected to remain dry through early next week ahead of an incoming system which is forecast to usher in more precipitation around midweek. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for UTZ116-118-119. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Seaman FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  523 FXUS63 KDLH 151743 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1243 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain enters from the west this morning and spreads east through the day. NW WI will see the majority of the rainfall. No storms expected with the passing system. - Gusty and dry conditions return on Friday and Saturday and may prompt fire weather concerns, especially on Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Synoptic set remains consistent with the discussion below. Overall, expecting showers to enter from the west this morning and spread east through the day. Minor shift in the low pressure going slightly further north has increased QPF for NW WI with the Gogebic Range now expecting greater than 0.50" The NBM seems to be struggling with temperatures under our cloudy regime. Max temperatures are too warm and overnight lows are too cold. Small adjustments were made, except for Friday morning where the NBM is 5-6F too cold. Leaned into the higher model consensus which keeps much of the region above freezing Friday morning. Precipitation will be exiting Friday morning and will largely be in the form of rain. Far northern MN could see a few snowflakes mix in but not expecting any impacts. The only other overhaul was to the Min RHs for Saturday. Model soundings remain very dry and with the abundance of sunshine expected Min RHs will likely fall to 25-30%. Increasing winds into the afternoon may prompt fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, lingering stratus clouds will slowly scatter across the Northland, leaving behind calm and quiet conditions. Cloud cover will increase again tonight across the area. Opted to increase low temperatures for tonight compared to guidance due to higher cloud cover limiting heat release overnight, with readings staying in the lower to mid 30s rather than dipping into the 20s. An upper-level cutoff low over the Four Corners will phase into an incoming trough from the Canadian Prairies on Thursday, leading to a surface low moving across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. Rainfall will develop along a frontogenesis band Thursday morning and spread across the area through the afternoon. Rain chances will be highest across northwest Wisconsin, where a tenth to a quarter inch of rain is expected. Low temperatures in the mid 30s are also anticipated for tomorrow night due to higher cloud cover. A large trough will bring rain chances and cool air close behind for the late week. Precipitation along and wrap around precipitation behind the front will keep rain chances going for Thursday night into Friday morning. There is no snow currently in the latest forecast for early Friday morning, but a few flakes falling with light rain is still possible across the Arrowhead and south shore. Strong northwest winds will surge behind the boundary late Thursday night into Friday, gusting 25 to 35 mph across the Northland, with gusts up to 45 mph near Lake Superior before diminishing Friday afternoon. High pressure builds across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, setting the stage for very dry air to overspread the region. Forecasters are still looking at relative humidity as low as 25 percent for Saturday. Winds are expected to increase in the afternoon, but timing will depend on the speed of a warm front moving through. The combination of gusty southwest winds reaching 20 to 30 mph and the dry air mass could lead to near-critical to critical fire weather conditions on Saturday. An upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border on Sunday, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with passing clouds. Heading into early next week, upper-level ridging willbecome the predominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This will maintain dry, mostly clear, and mild conditions through Monday and Tuesday. While a couple of weak shortwaves may attempt to bring a stray shower next week, dry weather is favored to dominate. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain showers continue. Showers will be coming to an end at BRD shortly, with HIB not far behind. Periodic reductions in conditions will continue for DLH and HYR as rain continues for the afternoon and into tonight. Overall, ceilings will continue to remain MVFR with occasional IFR with rainfall. Behind this area of main precipitation, another round of more scattered showers is expected with the wrap around of the low pressure system in to early tomorrow morning. This will be accompanied by increasing northwesterly to northerly winds, with gusts up to 30 kts expected in the early morning into the early afternoon. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light southeast winds today will gradually turn to out of the southwest as rain enters from the west. Rain will persist through the overnight hours but no storms are expected. Winds will turn to out of the north with the departure of the rain early Friday morning and ramp up rapidly. Widespread gales are expected and a Gale Warning is in effect. Gales will briefly weaken Friday evening, but look to return on Saturday as winds turn to out of the southwest. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No fire weather concerns today. Rain moves in from the west and spreads east through the day. NW WI will see the lion's share of the moisture with totals of 0.25-0.75" expected. Very windy conditions for Friday morning as the system exits, but dry air doesn't look to take hold of the region until Saturday. While winds won't be quite as strong we are still forecasting widespread gusts in excess of 25 mph. Model soundings show an immense amount of dry air aloft, and when paired with an abundance of sunshine we should see those RHs fall to 25-30%. Fire weather headlines may be needed. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. && $$ UPDATE...Britt DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...KML MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt  529 FXUS63 KGID 151744 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread light rainfall will taper off from west to east through the morning hours, gradually ending by the early to mid-afternoon hours. In general, another tenth to half an inch of rainfall will be possible before the precipitation ends. - The coolest air of the fall, thus far, along with the first widespread frost of the season remains on tap for the Friday night into Saturday morning time-frame, with some scattered below freezing temperatures increasingly likely in our typically coolest spots. - Dry conditions and moderating temperatures from 60s into the 70s return for the weekend and into next week, providing several days of gorgeous fall weather. - Our next (and still very "iffy") chance for rain does not arrive until next Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Widespread light rainfall continues across much of the local area this morning, especially for areas east of Highway 283. So far precipitation totals have been on the lighter side, ranging anywhere from a couple of tenths of an inch of rainfall, to just over an inch in a few select locations - mostly across portions of north central Kansas. While thus far there have not been any lightning strikes this morning, cannot completely rule out a few strikes based on latest SPC meso-analysis indicating a couple hundred joules of cape, so maintained an isolated thunderstorm mention through the mid-morning hours (albeit any thunderstorms/lightning will be the exception). Otherwise, the forecast continues to look on track as the widespread light rainfall associated with the upper level low this morning is anticipated to shift east through the daytime hours. Any precip then rotating around the backside of this low and ahead of the approaching cold front should mostly dissipate by afternoon, with clouds lingering but precip generally ending from west to east before evening. Later tonight, expect the cold front from the north to race south across the local area, with gusty north winds helping to keep the atmosphere well mixed overnight and preventing low temperatures from tanking across central Nebraska overnight. That said, surface high pressure will fill in the from the west on Friday with lighter winds and clear skies, which should allow overnight temperatures Friday into Saturday morning to plummet to near or below freezing. As well advertised the past few days, this will be the coolest airmass so far this fall, and frost advisories and possibly some freeze warnings will need to be considered on the day shift later today. Otherwise, after a cool start to the weekend, more mild weather returns for next week with the next chance for some light precip returning Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Clouds, scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms have been on the increase from S to N today. Most areas won't see sunshine again until Friday AM. The initial wave of rain today is scattered, but there are some embedded heavier cores with a few rumbles of thunder. Latest guidance lifts this activity S to N through the remainder of the day, with perhaps some weakening with northern extent/time. A much larger, and more persistent, shield of light to moderate rain (and again, a few embedded weak thunderstorms) will spread SW to NE across the entire region late tonight, and continue through most, if not all, of the morning hours Thursday. Not much change to expected rainfall amounts as both the latest HREF and EPS are in good agreement. Most areas will receive around 0.25" to 0.75". Very isolated higher amounts up to 1.5" will be possible, but this willbe more of the exception than the rule. Coverage and intensity will taper off from SW/S to NE/N Thursday afternoon. Most areas should be done with rain by around sunset Thursday, though a few sprinkles/very light showers could linger along the Hwy 81 corridor a couple hours longer. North winds will be a bit breezy on Thursday as the entire system lifts through the Plains and into the Upper Midwest - so even when it's not raining, its going to feel quite chilly and raw. High temperatures will only be in the 50s, but it could feel like mid to upper 40s at times with the breeze. Despite clearing skies Thursday night, not expecting frost due to breezy conditions persisting all night. Strongest high pressure of the fall season thus far will ooze into the region on Friday. This will gradually lower wind speeds on Friday, but temperatures will remain seasonably cool only in the 50s. The cool daytime, in conjunction with clear skies, weak winds along sfc ridge axis, and recent moisture will likely set the stage for widespread (perhaps significant/thick) frost Friday night into Saturday morning. Return flow will be on the increase towards dawn over the far W/NW, but damage may already be done in these areas by then. Forecast has been cooling slightly with each and every cycle, and now all but far SE zones are forecast to dip to, or just below, freezing Sat AM. As such, will likely by issuing frost/freeze headlines within the next 12-18 hours for this threat. Temperatures will warm nicely Saturday afternoon in the dry autumn airmass...and expect further moderation to temperatures Sunday into early next week. In fact, upper 60s to upper 70s are forecast each day Sunday through Wednesday next week, with our KS zones possibly even touching the low 80s late in the period. May have another period of patchy frost to contend with Saturday night, but a steady southerly breeze should prevent another round of widespread/thick frost...and lows only warm further from there next several days. So those looking to extend the growing season should be able to get at least another week, provided protective measures are taken Fri night-Sat AM. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: MVFR ceilings to begin the period will clear to VFR ceilings starting around 22Z. While the ceilings will remain VFR for KEAR, models suggest lower level clouds for KGRI around dawn dropping ceilings to MVFR levels from around 12Z-16Z before rising back to VFR levels. A cold front moving through the area in the afternoon hours will bring steady north-northeasterly winds gusting 25-30kts through the TAF period. Additionally, as the front passes strong winds in the 1000-2000ft AGL creates low-level wind shear (LLWS) starting around 12Z and continuing overnight before subsiding around 12Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Rossi DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...McGrew  761 FXUS61 KCTP 151747 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 147 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Severe threat has increased for Friday afternoon and early evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Potent storm system moves across PA tonight and Fri with a severe threat Fri aftn/eve. 2) Windy with first flakes on the higher terrain of the north Fri night/Sat morning 3) Cold weather may end the growing season for many places this weekend, with Sun morning the coldest. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Potent storm system moves across PA tonight and Fri with a severe threat Fri aftn/eve. A surface low moving through the Midwest will cross the Great Lakes tonight and Friday. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will develop tonight ahead of a warm front as it lifts northward into the region. Most guidance shows a break in the showers for much of the CWA during the late morning/early afternoon which will allow for at least some air mass destabilization before a strong cold front begins to approach from the west. The HREF shows surface CAPE approaching 1000 J/kg for areas east of I-99 which will be more than sufficient for widespread thunderstorm development along the front. With 0-6 km bulk shear expected to be in the 40 to 60 knot range and oriented nearly parallel to the surface boundary, initial storms should quickly merge into a low-topped squall line capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. SPC has a wind driven slight risk of severe weather over the southeastern half of the area to highlight this threat. We will also need to watch the leading edge of the line for brief QLCS tornadoes as model soundings show between 20 and 30 knots of 0-1 km shear and over 100 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE that may aid in stretching any vorticity. The threat will likely be maximized (although a much lower chance than the potential for damaging wind gusts) during the afternoon over southeast PA, and this is where SPC has included a 2 percent tornado contour. ----------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Windy with first flakes possible on the higher terrain of the north Fri night/Sat morning The post-frontal pressure gradient is pretty tight with 10mb of drop across the state Friday night and Saturday morning. 50+KT winds behind the front look like they will stay AOA 6-7kft and soundings from both the RAP and the NAM show winds at the top of the mixed layer remaining below 40 knots. This should prevent wind gusts from getting any stronger than 35 or 40 mph and a Wind Advisory appears much less likely than it did a few days ago. 850 mb temps over Lake Erie will fall to around -5C by Saturday morning as a much colder air mass moves in. This is certainly cold enough to support lake effect clouds with lake surface temps still in the low 60s, but the potential for widespread rain or snow showers continues to decrease. Northerly flow will result in a very short fetch across the lakes, so moisture will be limited. Even though model RH profiles do show saturation in the DGZ, significantly drier air below that level should prevent much of the precipitation from reaching the ground. That being said, most models do still show a few light rain or snow showers developing over the northern tier. The window of opportunity for these showers will be rather short as drier air moves in by mid-morning. ------------------------------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 3: Cold weather may end the growing season for many places Sun morning. A large surface high moves in for the weekend, supplying dry but cold weather for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will hold the coldest daytime temps with temps getting just above 40F in the NE and 52F in the SE. Those maxes will be 20-30F lower than Friday's maxes. The current forecast show temperature dropping below freezing Saturday morning over parts of northwest PA, but there is still some uncertainty regarding just how low temperatures get since it should stay pretty cloudy for much of the night. If confidence continues to increase in parts of the region dipping below 32, a Freeze Warning may be needed for some zones across north-central PA. McKean County would be left out of any freeze products since their growing season has already ended. Frost is less of a concern Friday night/Saturday morning due to the aforementioned cloud cover as well as the fact that winds likely stay pretty gusty. Sunday morning will be the most-likely time for sub-freezing temps across much of the CWA. This could end the growing season for a significant portion of the forecast area. A widespread frost is almost a certainty as winds decrease and go mainly calm Sun AM. We'll be considering appropriate frost/freeze products, but it is still too early to be that confident on details. Sunday night will likely also feature fairly widespread frost, but the location of any frost/freeze headlines will depend on where the growing season remains active after the previous night's freeze. High pressure is expected to remain in control for at least the first half of next week. This will result in mainly dry weather with high temperatures returning to the upper 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Few to scattered clouds are present over most of the region to begin this afternoon. Building low clouds over JST and AOO are keeping ceilings in the west MVFR ahead of an approaching warm front and low pressure system. Scattered showers and lowering ceilings will accompany the warm front tonight, with IFR ceilings likely (50-70% chance) to overspread all of central Pennsylvania from west to east between 04-08Z Friday as warm air advection drives moisture back in the region. Nocturnal LLWS is also likely (50-70% chance) over the western airfields (KBFD/KJST) tonight as an LLJ ahead of the system brings southwesterly winds at 925 mb to 35-40 kts. LLWS is less likely with points eastward, farther from the low pressure center moving over the southern Great Lakes. A break in the precipitation will likely occur during the late morning for most airfields between the warm and the cold front, but ceilings will likely stay at or near IFR conditions throughout the day. Winds will likely be most gusty over the western terminals of JST and AOO with guts of 35kts possible. After 18Z Friday the cold front will arrive over northwestern PA, bringing a line of strong showers and thunderstorms that will slowly progress southeastward into the early evening hours on Friday. Outlook... Fri...Higher chances of SHRA with isolated TSRA. Restrictions increasingly likely. Gusty S-SW winds likely ahead of front, with gusty NW winds behind front. Sat...Lingering SHRA across N/W PA with some -SHSN mixing in early Saturday morning. Restrictions likely at airfields that mix over to SHSN. Precipitation tapers off by sunrise, VFR prevails with gusty winds. Sun-Mon...AM fog possible; otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Bauco DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Bauco AVIATION...Bowen/Teare  750 FXUS62 KJAX 151746 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 146 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River - Marine & Coastal Hazards Return this Weekend. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Small Craft Advisory, Potential Gusts to Gale Force Sunday into Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Potential at Coast, ICW & St. Johns Basin. Extended duration minor flooding along St Johns River into next week possible && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Patchy to Areas of Fog, locally dense Late Tonight With surface high pressure ridge axis stretching across the area from the east northeast, a light east to southeasterly onshore flow about 5-10 mph along the coast and I-95 to less than 5 mph over inland SE GA close to the ridge axis. The onshore flow will push a weak Atlantic seabreeze inland to highway 301 through the rest of the afternoon with winds increasing 5-10 mph. Mid to upper level ridging aloft has a dry airmass above the boundary layer with PWATs below average similar to yesterday near 1 inch and limiting cumulus cloud growth to areas south of I-10 as the seabreeze moves inland. The mostly sunny conditions have allowed temperatures to reach well into the 80s inland and a few spots may reach 90 degrees well west of US-17 the coast stays in the low/mid 80s. Tonight, the high pressure ridge axis will depart to the east as ridging aloft shifts off the NC/SC coast into the western Atlantic waters to our northeast. Light southeast winds will become calm inland and fog will redevelop again late tonight, with guidance agreeing on areas of locally dense fog setting up from along I-10 just west of Jacksonville to portions of the Suwannee Valley north and east into inland SE GA and the SE GA coast. Lows will be in the mid 60s north of I-10 and upper 60s to near 70 south of I-10, and low 70s along the NE FL coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Potential for a few storms over north central FL Friday afternoon/evening -Coastal hazards begin late Friday night into Saturday with beginning stages of elevated water levels, high rip current risk, and rough surf and seas. - Northerly winds expected to gust to around 35 mph on Saturday and Saturday night, with a potential for gusts of 40 mph along the coastal areas of northeast FL, which would necessitate a wind advisory along the coast A cold front pushes into the area from the northwest Friday evening, shifting south of the area by Saturday morning. High pressure will then begin to build north of the area behind the cold front passage. Southwesterly winds will be in place Friday ahead of the approaching frontal, bringing warm temperatures across inland locations with daytime highs reaching into the the mid to upper 80s, while a weak east coast breeze will keep coastal locations a bit cooler in the low to mid 80s. An influx of moisture from the south/southeast could bring the development of some scattered showers along north central FL locations, where PWATs are expected around 1.8" to 1.9" range. By the overnight hours temperatures will be in the lower 60s across SE GA and the mid to upper 60s along inland NE FL, with mid 60s to lower 70s along the coast. The building high pressure north of the area will result in strong north/northeast winds to develop over the local waters and towards coastal locations on Saturday. Winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of around 35 mph will be possible beginning Saturday afternoon, and persisting through the overnight hours into Sunday, with coastal showers also likely. After the passage of the cold front, cooler temperatures will bring daytime highs will range in the 70s, with warmer temperatures by the coast and north central FL. Overnight Lows will be in the lower 50s to mid 60s, warmer temperatures again over north central FL and coastal locations. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected from Sunday through Tuesday High pressure over the north and then the northeast of the area will continue to bring strong winds through the end of the weekend into the upcoming week across the local waters and coastal locations, with chances of showers also persisting for these locations. Winds continue to be expected around the mid 20 mph range, with gusts possibly in the 35 to 40 mph along the coast and offshore waters, with winds beginning to decrease heading into midweek. The elevated onshore flow will bring coastal hazards such as tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and minor to moderate beach erosion. Winds will begin to taper off by midweek as the high pressure begins to weaken. Temperatures will be below average during the period, with daytime highs around the mid to upper 70s during the weekend, upper 70s to lower 80s by next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... For the 18z TAF period, mostly sunny skies will continue as high pressure remains stretched across the area. Easterly winds 5-10 knots will shift more southeasterly by sunset and decrease to under 5 knots along the coast and become calm inland. Fog will develop again late tonight after 06Z with MVFR level restrictions through 09Z and then lowering to IFR/LIFR VSBY as fog expands towards sunrise 09Z-12Z with tempo restrictions at VQQ for VLIFR. Friday morning, fog will lift by 14Z with very light winds turning westerly 3-5 knots and few low level clouds 2.5-3.0 kft and slowly increasing high level clouds well ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. && .MARINE... High pressure will be over the area Today, then weaken as it shifts east northeast of the area Tonight into Friday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday night. Strong high pressure will build behind the front. A surge of north winds will move south down the coastal waters behind the front, with elevated winds from late Friday night through much of next week, with potential for Gale force winds late Saturday into Monday. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk through Friday. High risk of rip currents with rough surf from Saturday through much of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy Low Daytime Dispersions This Afternoon - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Friday Through Monday High pressure remains over the area into Friday, with easterly winds persisting today. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the area by Friday night. Northeasterly winds develop this weekend behind the cold front as high pressure builds north of the area. Elevated winds are expected along the Atlantic coast of SE GA and NE FL beginning late Friday Night, with the elevated winds persisting into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers for coastal locations through the weekend and next week. Poor to Fair dispersions persist this afternoon. By Friday, Good to High dispersions develop over SE GA ahead of the frontal boundary, with Fair to good dispersions expected over NE FL. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog is possible late tonight and early Friday morning hours. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required. There is a low chance for thunderstorms over north central FL Friday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, ICWW, and St. Johns river basin this weekend and early next week as strong northeasterly winds develop. Some significant beach erosion is possible by Sunday, especially coastal northeast FL, as seas for the nearshore waters build to the 10-15 ft range through Monday night while southeast GA nearshore seas mainly in the 8-13 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 87 62 70 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 68 86 67 74 / 0 0 0 30 JAX 66 89 68 74 / 0 10 0 10 SGJ 70 88 70 76 / 0 20 20 20 GNV 67 89 69 76 / 0 10 20 10 OCF 69 89 70 76 / 0 20 30 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  756 FXUS63 KGLD 151747 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1147 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers ending this morning to early afternoon. - Windy this afternoon with gusts up to 55 mph in northeast Colorado and 30-50 mph elsewhere. Some patchy blowing dust possible in Colorado. - Frost and light freeze possible tonight, then a light freeze likely Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1215 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Scattered showers will continue to move east overnight and this morning ahead of the upper trough axis. Secondary band to the northwest associated with the sheared out remnants of the upper low may survive as far south as Yuma County before weakening this afternoon with a few light showers. Otherwise, main concern today will be the potential for windy conditions, primarily in northeast Colorado. Mid to late afternoon clearing may be enough to mix down stronger winds to the surface on the backside of the upper trough. NBM probabilities continue at 50-60% in a fairly small area of western Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties for gusts of greater than 55 mph after 18z through about 22z. Some patchy blowing dust may also develop with favorable mixing heights, but with the recent rainfall confidence is on the low side given the moist top soils. Gusts outside of northeast Colorado should max out in the 30-50 mph range. Winds take some time to diminish tonight with gusts of 20-40 mph well into Friday morning before a noticeable decline. This may inhibit temperatures from falling despite clearing skies. NBM probabilities for 32 or colder are running around 40-50% near the Kansas and Colorado border to up to 70-90% along Highway 59 and northern Yuma County, where there is also around a 40% chance for a hard freeze of 28 or lower. Elsewhere, a frost is more likely. Upper ridge will build in from the west on Friday and Saturday resulting in dry conditions. Friday will see light winds by the afternoon with temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds shift around to the southwest and increase late Friday night, gusting 20-30 mph by Saturday morning in Colorado and west of Highway 25. This may once again inhibit temperatures from falling despite the clear skies. Nonetheless, probabilities are running quite high for a light freeze in the entire area, near 100%, with a wide range of probabilities for a hard freeze, favoring low spots in Colorado and along the Republican River. The south to southwest winds continue to increase through the day on Saturday, with gusts of 30-40 mph common by the afternoon, highest in Colorado. Afternoon relative humidity is forecast to drop to 15% or lower from Yuma County southwest into western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties, which combined with the gusty winds will result in near critical to critical fire weather conditions. This may extend into the adjacent counties of Kansas and Nebraska for a few hours as well. High temperatures in those areas will reach the 70s with downslope warming, with 60s expected elsewhere with a more southerly wind component. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Southwest flow aloft via longwave ridge is anticipated on Sunday to kick off this forecast period. Said ridge, centered over the western Great Lakes region, should propagate fairly quickly to the east over the course of the day Monday. Upper-level winds become zonal through Monday. Guidance currently projects a second ridge to develop on Tuesday across the the Plains region, settling the flow pattern backto southwesterly through the middle of next week. This, all ahead of an upper-level low that is expected to move across the SW CONUS through Wednesday. Guidance does outline a brief shortwave early Monday which should move out of the County Warning Area (CWA) by the time the evening comes around. Not much is expected to come from this trough passage other that a wind shift. A weak surface low is likely to form over eastern Colorado Sunday, moving into western Kansas Monday. This feature also should not do much other than pressure changes and wind shifts. Ensemble guidance is beginning to pick up a stronger surface low that may set up near the Tri-State area late Wednesday. Forecast guidance anticipates conditions to be quite dry across the CWA through early Wednesday. 5% or less PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) are favored throughout the region. This may not last though as an upper-level low, mentioned in the above section, paired with low-pressure at the surface could bring the next decent rainfall chances to our region late Wednesday. Guidance is currently not very confident on widespread precipitation, but a general 15-25% PoPs is forecasted at this point in time. Surface analysis/QPF doesn't show much accumulation for our area right now; nonetheless, still worth monitoring as this event draws closer. Moving on to high/low temperatures for the coverage area, a slight warmup is expected across the board as we rebound from well-below average highs. Temps in the low/mid 70s are likely Sunday and Monday, with a slight uptick to mid/upper 70s Tuesday then upper 70s/low 80s possible next Wednesday. With respect to overnight lows, Sunday morning is likely to be the coldest, with temps expected to approach the mid 30s. Lows will then gradually warm up above the mid 30s, with upper 30s/low 40s expected Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue this warming trend with low/mid 40s and then upper 40s/low 50s expected, respectively. As for fire weather concerns, the potential for critical fire conditions will be low, but not zero. Relative humidity (RH) values are likely to reach the mid-teens (14-15%) in our eastern Colorado counties on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface winds over these areas should sit around 15-20 mph from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Going forward, RH values are anticipated as low as the upper teens west of US-385 Monday and Tuesday, but winds should be light and variable; thus, the fire weather outlook likely will be milder post-Sunday. For the rest of the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is to be expected with generally 5-15 mph winds. Winds will initially be from the south Monday, shifting to the north and east with the shortwave, then settling back to more of a southerly direction. Gusts are not likely to exceed 25 mph during this forecast period everywhere east of the Colorado/Kansas state line. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1146 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For both terminals, low ceilings are expected to lift throughout the early afternoon and skies should be mostly clear by 00Z. Conditions will be windy today with winds mostly out of the northwest with gusts around 35 knots. Winds will start to diminish Friday late morning. Patchy low-level wind shear is possible overnight for both terminals. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ090>092. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NEZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Rhoades  780 FXUS63 KLMK 151748 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 148 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for most of the area with visibilities as low as 1/4 mile this morning. * Chance for severe weather has lessened somewhat, with the sole threat being strong to severe gusty winds. * Highs are warm across the south in the mid to upper 80s one last day before Friday. * Cool down and breezy winds arrive Friday, with a chance for frost in the Bluegrass overnight this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 =====Foggy, With Spotty Showers and Storms This Afternoon===== A game of cat and mouse is ongoing between departing clouds to the east, and approaching low to mid level clouds from the west. In areas that have seen a few hours of clearing, dense fog is forming. Timing and forecasting how thick the fog settles in is tricky because fog is hard to form with any cloud cover. Be that as it may. a Dense Fog Advisory will likely be issued very shortly to account for the observed dense fog in some areas that aren't in the typical valley locations, favored in areas from near Bowling Green towards Lexington and places NW from there, including the Louisville Metro. Though fog may not be quite as prevalent as a few nights ago, it will nonetheless cause concern for drivers in the morning. Beyond fog, winds are light as a cold front has nearly bisected our CWA. Nearly calm winds are present across the CWA, with generally southerly flow south of an east-to-west line from just north of Lake Cumberland to just north of BWG. Spotty showers are beginning to bubble up and move into our western CWA as well. Spotty showers can't be ruled out for the rest of the morning. This signifies the return to SW flow later this morning and afternoon as a warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley today. Warm minimum temperature records may be broken later this morning considering how saturated we are (I'd imagine the whole CWA only has the chance to cool by another degree or two). Eventually, as the warm front lifts through our area, it will slowly raise cloud ceilings, scour out fog, and generally push lower PoPs to our north. SW flow may be enhanced due to the close presence of a developing low moving towards the Great Lakes region. When the warm front associated with this low passes to the north, there may be enough instability for storms to fire as it passes sometime after 12 Noon EDT. For now, since moisture is so high, at least in the lower levels, clouds will be rather slow to clear for pure sunshine before storms fire. In between clouds though, enough instability could present strong to severe wind gusts. The best wind shear will avoid us to the NW, and as a result, the tornado threat will likely completely miss our area. Highs with this enhanced SW flow behind the front will be quick to warm though despite the morning cloud cover. There is still a question of how much cloud cover will stick around this afternoon but for now, high temperatures should be warmest in the south (south of I-64) in the mid to upper 80s. North of the interstate, clouds and rain will take the longest to clear with highs in the lower 80s to upper 70s. It should be said that despite the chance for severe weather, rainfall coverage will be scattered at best and move fairly progressively with the strong SW flow. Additional rainfall totals have a 75% of remaining under 0.5", with an extremely isolated risk of up to 2" of rain should a heavy downpour or two track over the same areas this afternoon. We are not expecting any flash flooding concerns today as the best severe risk and flooding risk remain too far north. =====Strong Incoming Cold Front and Seasonable Warmth Next Week===== SW flow will intensify as the impending cold behind the departing Great Lakes low gets closer and sweeps through early Friday morning. Winds will increase by early morning and grow stronger throughout the day. Temperatures will fall into the 60s for highs and cooling throughout the afternoon after frontal passage with wind gusts of 25- 35 MPH. Saturday, lows are chilly in the morning as temperatures really struggle to reach the upper 50s. There is increasing confidence in widespread frost Saturday night with clear skies and lows forecast in the mid to low 30s. We will likely issue products related to this when the time comes. Beyond Saturday, high temperatures very very slowly moderate as highs Sunday reach the mid 60s. Isolated frost may be possible, although the positioning of a high pressure may allow weak southerly flow to moderate us just enough to stay out of frost territory. Long range trend is dry, really through the rest of the week. Temperatures look to remain near normal eventually settling into the low 70s by midweek next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A stationary front is currently draped over northern KY leading to more cloud cover on the cool side to the north. Overcast skies are beginning to break along with improving ceilings from south to north. Scattered to isolated rain showers (and a few storms) will remain in the TAFs for tonight and into tomorrow. Sites can expected a period of mostly VFR conditions this evening into the overnight ahead of a cold front moving in from the NW. As the boundary pushes into the forecast area overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, a wind shift with 20-25kt winds are expected for all sites. There is a 40-50% chance that wind gust could overachieve >25kts. With ample moisture ahead of the front, rain showers have to potential to form in the morning with the forcing of the boundary. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BKF AVIATION...CAL  772 FXUS64 KMOB 151747 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Record or near record highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected Thursday with mid to upper 80s for Friday. With many areas still without power and recovery efforts from Hurricane Isaias ongoing, these temperatures could lead to an increased risk for heat related illnesses. - Strong northerly winds develop over the marine area Friday night, becoming easterly and lasting into the weekend. Gale force wind gusts are possible, with conditions posing a hazard to small craft. - A High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 There is the potential for patchy fog development across much of the area overnight, and it's possible that dense fog will develop across portions of southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama. Will continue to monitor at this point. A large upper trof progresses across the eastern states late in the week, with an associated surface low bringing a cold front through the forecast area Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Some isolated showers will be possible near the coast of the western Florida panhandle on Friday, but otherwise dry conditions are expected through Tuesday. Record or near record temperatures continue for Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, then highs on Friday will be moderated slightly with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s. Lows Thursday night range from the lower 60s inland to the mid/upper 60s closer to the coast. Here's the current forecast for highs on Thursday along with the record values: Mobile 89, Record 89 Pensacola 88, Record 89 Much cooler air flows into the area in the wake of the cold front. Highs on Saturday range from the upper 60s well inland to the lower 70s elsewhere, and highs on Sunday will be similar. Lows Saturday night and Sunday night range from the upper 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. A gradual warming trend follows for early next week, with highs on Tuesday reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s, and lows Tuesday night will range from the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Friday then trends to a high risk for Saturday night through Monday. /29 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the next 24 hours. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2026 A light, diurnally variable, the rest of the week becomes a strong to very strong easterly Friday night behind a cold front moving across the forecast area Friday. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong, especially over open Gulf waters. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 85 55 70 / 0 10 0 0 Pensacola 69 83 57 71 / 0 10 0 0 Destin 70 81 59 71 / 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 62 87 52 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 87 50 69 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 63 86 51 68 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 64 86 56 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ630>636. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$  789 FXUS64 KTSA 151748 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Thursday evening. - Gusty north winds behind a cold front tonight and Friday, with limited fire weather concerns across far southeast OK. - Much cooler and pleasant weather by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The overall threat of additional heavy rainfall has diminished this morning, though periods of mainly light to moderate rain will continue through this evening. Flood Watch will expire at 18z. Additional showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across northwest TX, and should expand more northeast with time as cold front moves into northeast OK later this afternoon and through the remainder of the local area this evening. The net effect will be for a gradual shift southeastward of the main axis of rainfall with time, with amounts gradually decreasing as the current tropical connection is ultimately pinched off. As a result the farther southeast you go, the less likelihood of significant rainfall, with far southeast OK seeing notably lighter rainfall amounts compared to the rest of the area. In addition the cold front will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass with gusty north winds, providing the first real taste of fall weather. Current data suggests wind gusts will be close to advisory levels, though mainly in the 30-35 mph range both tonight and much of Friday. Some traditionally windier locations will probably see a few gusts right around 40, but at this point do not anticipate widespread or prolonged gusts in that range. The winds will raise some degree of fire weather concerns Friday, especially in some of high terrain of far southeast OK where more persistent gusts likely, along with the decreased likelihood of wetting rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Wind speeds will eventually die down Friday evening with mostly clear skies. This will result in significantly colder overnight lows, potentially not far from freezing in some locations near the OK/KS border (20-30% probability of 32 or lower). Patchy frost could develop in sheltered areas, so tender vegetation may need some protection both Friday and Saturday nights. Temperatures will return more to normal levels by early next week then gradually rise above normal through mid-week with dry conditions. Next weather system will approach from the west, possibly by the end of next week or the weekend with rain chances returning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain and showers are beginning to clear the TAF sites ahead of the approaching cold front. Low clouds may briefly clear before MVFR ceiling return again behind the front. The boundary is scheduled to move into the northeast OK terminals 22-23Z and northwest AR and KMLC 02-03Z with renewed showers and thunderstorms along it. Winds will become gusty as well behind the front 20-25kt and continue through much of the night then become stronger on Friday. Confidence is high that low clouds will scatter out again or raise to VFR overnight, however, guidance suggests MVFR ceilings will return after 12Z across at least northern TAF sites as CAA continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 47 59 39 60 / 30 0 0 0 FSM 53 64 44 67 / 70 0 0 0 MLC 50 62 42 64 / 80 0 0 0 BVO 42 58 33 60 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 44 59 36 63 / 80 0 0 0 BYV 46 58 40 62 / 70 0 0 0 MKO 48 6040 62 / 60 0 0 0 MIO 45 56 36 59 / 40 0 0 0 F10 48 59 39 61 / 50 0 0 0 HHW 54 64 44 66 / 50 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ055>067-154-254- 354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...24  832 FXUS65 KCYS 151749 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1149 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow will continue above 7000 ft this morning. Snow levels may lower down to 5500 to 6000 feet briefly before precipitation ends later Thursday morning. - A growing-season-ending freeze expected Thursday night into Friday morning across the entire area. - Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 First winter-like Pacific storm ongoing across southeast Wyoming with mainly rain below 6000 feet for far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska early this morning. It is currently snowing in Laramie with a temperatures of 32 degrees, so snowlevels are likely between 6500 to 7000 feet given Cheyenne's current temperature at 100 AM of 38 degrees. The mountains and I-80 Summit are snowing moderately to occasionally heavy early this morning with accumulations on grassy surfaces, bridges, and overpasses. Current Winter Weather Advisory looks good and not planning to make any changes at this time. Band of moderate precip is colocated with the TROWAL feature/wrap around precip band which is currently over Albany county and extends northeast into east central Wyoming and the northern Nebraska Panhandle. This band is slowly translating eastward over the I-25 corridor, with the eastern extent of the band early stationary over the eastern plains. Forecast appears on track, at least the timing and expected snowfall/amounts. Still expect a transition to snow around elevations of 6000 feet and possibly as low 5500 feet before the precipitation ends later this morning. High res models and synoptic models have finally backed off on their massive QPF amounts, showing amounts that are a little more reasonable with this type of system. Models also show the storm system trending more progressive and exiting the area as early as 10:00 am to 1:00 pm today. This makes sense given the position of the northern branch of the jet stream and associated upper level trough/upstream kicker sliding south across the northern plains this morning. After trending QPF higher the last couple of days due to model persistence/consistency with higher precip amounts, lowered QPF back in line with a more faster moving storm system. Snowfall should be similar to the previous forecast with a slight lowering of snowfall totals. The only forecast concern is possible areal extensions of the Winter Weather Advisory for portions of I-25, southern Laramie Range foothills, etc; and maybe an upgrade to a Warning for the I-80 Summit and Snowy Range. However, confidence is limited at this time. Based on current trends, expect precip to end around noon (earlier west of I-25) with skies quickly clearing behind the upper level low as it becomes an open wave trough and exits to the east. Will likely see some sunshine by mid to late afternoon, so even with 700mb temperatures below freezing, expect high temperatures to recover somewhat into the mid 60s across western Nebraska, and remaining in the 40s for most of southeast Wyoming. Clear skies and good radiational cooling with set the stage for our first hard freeze. It's nearly a certainty at this point that most places will see low temperatures late Thursday night and Friday morning below 30 degrees, especially with the Canadian upper level trough diving south with another cold front diving south across the plains with a 1036mb surface high behind it. Upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Warning for areas west of the Interstate 25 corridor and Converse and Niobrara counties. Will keep the Watch going further south and east after collaboration with neighboring offices. Kept temperatures tonight around the NBM and Grand Ensemble 25th percentile. Will likely see some mid to upper teens for the more sheltered high valleys, especially if any snow accumulation remains over the valleys of central and south central Wyoming. All models show the eastern Pacific upper level ridge axis sliding eastward into the Intermountain West during the day. Expect drier weather and mostly sunny skies for the forecast area with temperatures about 10 degrees warmer compared to the last few days. High temperatures in the 50s expected during the afternoon with light southerly winds. Not as cold Friday night, but most of western Nebraska and south central Wyoming will see low temperatures below or near freezing once again. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 115 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The Intermountain west starts to take a temporary break from the active weather pattern starting Saturday morning. A slow moving ridge starts to set up and meander every so slightly towards the central plains. The region will gradually warm up due to this ridge but don't expect any summer like temperatures for the rest of the season. The global models have 700mb temperatures only warming up to between 6-10c through the next week after this freeze from a visit from a polar airmass. With the sun angle slowing dropping I'd wager that 80 degree days are probably done for this forecast area. Instead the greater gamble would be on wearing shorts or pants in the morning as temperatures start out in the 30's and 40's and climbing into the 60's and 70's by the afternoon. By the mid-week another low pressure system is progged to slide down the west coast as another low is just hanging around the east coast to put the Intermountain West on the forward edge of an Omega block centered over the central plains. The low off the west coast however will be a critical player to our regions forecast. The cyclonic rotation will be feeding moisture into our region to keep the afternoon RH values high enough to not present any current fire weather concerns while also stacking the cards on any needed precipitation reaching the ground as multiple shortwaves move past the Rockies for some precipitation chances late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1147 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Conditions are expected to become widespread VFR within the next few hours as heating and drying continues to clear out clouds across the region. Once this occurs, expect high CIGs to SKC through the end of the forecast period. Winds are very breezy today, with widespread gusts 20-40 knots through this evening from the north. Winds will begin to relax this evening or the early nighttime hours, with light winds expected tomorrow morning into the afternoon. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ101-102-104>111-113-115>119. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...CG  801 FXUS66 KMTR 151749 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1049 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a cooling trend begins Sunday into next week - Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and Friday - Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 821 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No update to the forecast necessary this morning. A Fire Weather Watch was issued overnight for the North Bay interior mountains where very dry and windy conditions tonight through Friday morning will promote rapid spread of any fire ignitions. Winds at the highest spots are already sustained at 30+ MPH with little to no overnight relative humidity recovery last night. RH values this morning are generally in the 20-30% range, and expected to be in the teens by later today. The decision on whether to upgrade to a Red Flag Warning will be made this afternoon with the scheduled forecast update. There are pockets of moderate HeatRisk this afternoon with the warming temperatures, mainly in the North Bay and East Bay. More widespread HeatRisk is in store for Friday, including many coastal areas as offshore flow continues to work against the marine layer. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Tonight through Friday) Near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations, particularly the North Bay Interior Mountains, through Friday. A positively tilted upper level ridge remains over Oregon and Northern/Central California while a cut-off low lingers over Southern California. This setup promotes light to moderate offshore winds across the region with the potential for more moderate to gusty offshore winds across the higher elevations. Model guidance keeps gusts across the elevated terrain peaking between 20 to 30 mph with locally stronger gusts possible across the highest peaks (e.g. Mt. St. Helena). The GFS and HRRR are both in agreement that the SFO- WMC gradient will peak around -9 mb Thursday morning and -10 mb Thursday night into Friday. The NAM continues to be an outlier and suggests the gradient could peak around -14 mb but looking closer into their forecast wind gusts still keeps gusts in a similar, but slightly stronger range, of 25 to 35 mph. Very dry conditions are expected across the higher elevations during both the daytime and overnight hours. Much of the region will see daytime RH in the 10s to 20s with poor to very poor overnight recoveries with the worst recoveries across the higher elevations. Given the very dry conditions and potential for offshore winds, any spark has the potential to start a fire. Remember, one less spark one less wildfire. Warmer temperatures continue Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s to low 90s on Thursday and upper 80s to 90s on Friday. Patchy Moderate HeatRisk is expected on Thursday but becomes more widespread across urban areas on Friday. If you are outdoors during peak heating, make sure you are drinking plenty of water and taking frequent breaks in the shade. The marine layer remains mixed out through the short term due to the presence of the ridge so expect && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Offshore winds decrease by Friday afternoon/evening as upper level ridging weakens and broad troughing returns to the region. High temperatures Saturday will still be warm in the 80s to low 90s but cooler temperatures return Sunday into next week. By Sunday, broad troughing returns to the region with temperatures cooling into the 70s to low 80s. Fall weather returns in force next week as we get our first potential rainmaker of the season. This low pressure system looks to originate from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring much cooler, moister air into the region as the surface low weakens and moves into California next week. Highs will be seasonal to below normal in the 60s to low 70s across the interior and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. Rain chances increase Tuesday through late week with wetting rains (>0.10") likely across the Central Coast and potentially Santa Cruz County/the South Bay. Light rain is possible across the rest of the Bay Area but does not look to meet wetting rain criteria at this time. Guidance is showing a low (<10%) chance of thunderstorms next week so that will be something to keep an eye on as this event gets closer in time. && && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High confidence for VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period regionwide as high pressure builds in over the region. Light/variable to offshore winds prevail early this morning but are likely to return onshore by early-to-mid afternoon. However, onshore wind speeds will be weaker than previous days. Vicinity of SFO...VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light/variable winds persist early this morning and are forecast to become weak offshore and persist through about 22Z when they turn more onshore. Winds ease overnight and become weak offshore again Friday morning. Onshore winds are again forecast by Friday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Typical drainage winds (southeasterly) prevail at SNS with onshore winds expected to return regionwide early afternoon. Winds ease after sunset and become light/variable overnight into Friday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moderate seas prevail across the outer waters, while the inner waters experience slight to moderate seas through Friday night. During this time frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which will be accompanied with rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 547 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A Fire Weather Watch was issued for the North Bay Interior Mountains and will go into effect later this evening and run through Friday morning. This is due to moderate offshore winds very dry with very poor overnight humidity recoveries only reaching 14 to 24 percent. Rapid fire spread is possible given the combination of gusty northerly winds and very dry overnight conditions. Elsewhere in the Bay Area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. Dry conditions, poor overnight RH recovery, combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Fire Weather Watch from 10 PM PDT this evening through Friday morning for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  849 FXUS64 KLUB 151749 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Periods of heavy rain and flash flooding remain possible through the late afternoon over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle. - Blustery north winds and cooler temperatures arrive Thursday and continue through Friday. - The first freeze of the season is possible for areas on the Caprock early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Our first "real" fall cold front has arrived and has pushed through nearly two thirds of the FA. Heavy rainfall continues ahead of and along the cold front. The Flood Watch and Flood Warning have been extended to 18Z as storms producing heavy rainfall continue to develop and move over our eastern zones. This activity should move out of the FA around or shortly after 18Z. Both hazards will be extended if this activity is much slower to move east, however. The area currently in the Flood Warning has seen the heaviest rainfall over the past 24 hours with ground stations (COOP and mesonets) reporting well over 4 inches and with radar estimates of 7+ inches, which seems very plausible. Winds behind the front will be breezy to low end windy this evening through Friday thanks to steady post-frontal pressure rises of 6-9 mb per 6 hours. CAA is not overly strong with this front, but it is present. Mostly cloudy skies should help keep highs in the 50s Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Clouds will begin to clear by late Friday afternoon through the overnight hours just as a surface high begins to settle over the FA and drops winds to 5 mph or less. This will be a decent setup for radiational cooling. Dewpoints behind the front will drop into the 20s on the Caprock and low/mid 30s off the Caprock. There is some uncertainty with how low temps will drop by Saturday morning. As of now, there is high confidence in at least our northwestern zones hitting at to below freezing. Further south and east, temperatures will be very dependent upon cloud cover and where the surface low eventually settles. The NBM has started to come around to most MOS guidance. MOS guidance (MAV, MET, and ECM) have been pointing to lows at least in the mid 30s across the Caprock for several days now and continue to lower with each run. MET guidance is the coolest at 31 at KLBB. While the forecast grids don't reflect the coolest, they have been lowered from NBM. A Freeze Watch will also be in effect for areas on the Caprock from 06-15Z Saturday. While not all of the area may see freezing temps, they should get low enough to cause stress to sensitive plants, especially those still taking advantage of the semi-late growing season and recent rainfall. We are also several days from the average first freeze across the northwest and two weeks before at Lubbock. Upper ridging will move overhead this weekend as part of a weak blocking pattern, and the upper high will push to the southeast by Saturday afternoon. The shifting surface high will bring surface winds to the south to southeast and will help to warm highs back into the 70s early next week. Another upper is progged by models to move into California by mid next week, but there is much disagreement in the models with the future of the upper low beyond Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Showers continue at KCDS for the next couple of hours. Visibilities at KCDS will continue to vary as the intensity of rain oscillates. Showers are done at both KPVW and KLBB. However, MVFR ceilings prevail at all three TAF sites. These low ceilings are expected to clear out later this afternoon. Once the low ceilings clear, VFR conditions will prevail. A cold front pushed through the region this morning bringing strong northerly winds. Each TAF site can expect gusts up to 30-35 mph through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>035-039-040. Flood Watch until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ025-026-031-032- 037-038-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...10  976 FXUS61 KAKQ 151754 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 154 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Timing for morning showers has trended slightly later and linger into the afternoon for northern sections. The Friday night/Saturday cold front has also trended slightly later, with higher rain chances lingering well into Saturday, and potentially into early next week along the coast. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the northern nearshore coastal waters and the lower Chesapeake Bay. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front drops southward this morning with increasing clouds and much cooler temperatures. Some light rain is forecast across the northern half of the area. 2) Warm and breezy Friday with gusty showers along the front Friday night into Saturday. Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 310 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front drops southward this morning with increasing clouds and much cooler temperatures. Some light rain is forecast across the northern half of the area. Surface observations show a cold front translating southward across the area as high pressure builds in from the NW. Satellite shows quite a bit of mid level cloud cover moving into the region. Radar shows some very light returns in the Piedmont but little if any precip is making it to the ground. Expect the front to continue southward through the morning with winds becoming NE as high pressure to the north allows for CAD to develop across the region. Becoming a bit breezy near the coast today. 00z guidance has continued the trend of shaving a degree or two off of previously forecast temperatures behind this backdoor front. Highs range from the mid 60s N, upper 60s to low 70s along S of I-64, and upper 70s to low 80s near and S of the VA/NC border. High temps will occur in the morning for the northern half of the area with temps holding steady or slowly falling thereafter as CAD strengthens. It still appears that there will be an uptick in precip coverage across the NW and N this morning into the afternoon. QPF will be light with 0.1- 0.15" across the north, tapering to a few hundredths near Richmond and little to nothing south of US-460. Some light rain or drizzle may linger into tonight, mainly for the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. Low temps range from the upper 50s NW to the mid/upper 60s SE. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm and breezy Friday with gusty showers along the front Friday night into Saturday. Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Today's front will lift northward as a warm front on Friday, scouring out the low level stable CAD airmass as an upper trough digs into the Midwest and strengthens a surface low over the eastern Great Lakes. High temps rebound into the mid and even upper 80s with breezy SW winds. It now appears that the daylight hours of Friday will be dry with the 00z models continuing to slow the progression of the strong front. PoPs increase after sunset, along and ahead of the surging cold front. Hi-res guidance shows the potential for thin strongly-forced line of convection along the front Friday evening. With the somewhat slower frontal timing, even less instability is available than it looked 24 hours ago. However, strong kinematics aloft will likely be able to mix down to the surface with wind gusts 30-40 mph possible as the front comes through. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) across the the N and NE portions of the area for strong to severe wind gusts. There will be little if any thunder with these showers despite the potential for strong wind gusts. Models have continued to trend toward a more amplified upper level pattern across the SE CONUS this weekend. The NAM and ECMWF are the most bullish, developing a closed upper low and coastal surface low while the GFS/Canadian models are much more progressive. This bimodal split in the guidance leads to significant uncertainty regarding the sensible weather this weekend and likely well into next week. Regardless, it still appears that much colder air will spill into the area Saturday and Sunday with high temps in the mid 50s NW to the low/mid 60s SE. Rainfall chances and placement are where the highest uncertainty lies. The amplified solutions would result in rainfall continuing on Saturday and lingering potentially into early next week as low pressure lingers offshore. Have trended PoPs and QPF toward the coastal low scenario but with very low confidence at this time. Cold overnight lows Saturday night still appear on track but with more wind likely to diminish the potential for frost, even in the typically colder Piedmont spots. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 155 PM EDT Thursday... The cold front has moved south of the forecast area today, allowing the area to be in gusty NE flow. Strongest winds close to the coast where winds are gusting to 20 kt. This flow off the water has allowed for generally MVFR CIGs across the entire area this afternoon. In addition, a few showers are ongoing Expect these conditions to generally continue through the afternoon, then CIGS are likely to fall to IFR overnight at most locations. The front quickly moves back north as a warm front Friday morning, allowing sfc winds to turn SW and CIGS to quickly become VFR by 14 or 15z Friday. Outlook...Breezy SW winds develop by late morning and persist through the day. Deteriorating flying conditions return later Fri evening through Sat evening as a stronger cold front crosses the area. Additional rain chances and gusty NW winds are expected Sat morning into the afternoon, especially E. && .MARINE... As of 310 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - NE winds increase behind a backdoor cold front this morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles and the lower Chesapeake Bay. - A longer-duration wind event is likely along and behind a strong cold front beginning later Friday, potentially lingering through most of the weekend. NNW winds will likely frequently gust over 34 kt for a period of time. A backdoor cold front is dropping across the region early this morning, but hasn't quite made it to the local waters as ~3am obs. Obs still show WSW winds around 10kt, seas around 2ft, and waves in the bay around 1ft. Winds will gradually become NE behind the front from N to S between this writing and ~8/9am. These winds will be breezy and near or just above advisory criteria at 15-20kt. Winds should peak around mid-morning with highest winds over coastal waters north of Cape Charles and in the lower Ches. Bay. Small Craft Advisories are unchanged from the previous issuance and are in effect for the nearshore coastal waters north of Cape Charles, the mouth of the bay, and the lower bay. Winds diminish during the late afternoon into the evening becoming easterly. Southwest flow then returns early Friday morning ahead of the next front. SSW flow ramps up to 15-20kt again on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the stronger front. Strong CAA behind the front over the still-warm waters will lead to windy conditions. Confidence is high in at least strong SCA conditions with confidence in gale-force gusts continuing to increase. North winds increase to 25-30kt behind the front with gusts potentially as high as 40kt. Local wind probs continue to show 70-90% for 34kt+ gusts for much of the Ches Bay and especially the coastal waters south of Cape Charles for Saturday. Winds become more NE and remain in at least the strong SCA range through Sunday morning. Still just a bit early for Gale Watches, but they will likely be going up soon. Seas are also expected to increase substantially and could possibly exceed 6-9 ft. Uncertainty is increased past early Sunday, though, now that the possibility of coastal low pressure developing has been introduced by guidance. There is still a large spread in the strength and positioning of this potential low, which of course has a large impact on the winds. Previous forecasts had winds dropping off quickly Sunday as high pressure built in behind the front, but deepening low pressure along the coast would mean a continuation of strong onshore flow into early next week. Regardless, onshore flow of some sort looks to remain for much of the next week, so elevated seas will probably take a while to come down to below advisory level. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632- 634-636-639-650-652-654-656. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ633. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for ANZ656-658-686-688. && $$ DISCUSSION...RHR AVIATION...RHR/MRD MARINE...AC  992 FXUS65 KGJT 151755 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1155 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier weather is expected today onward, with gradual warming to seasonable temperatures this weekend. - Gusty winds are expected in the western portions of our CWA, with speeds ranging between 30 and 35 mph. - Sub-freezing nighttime temperatures are forecast across northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas Thursday and Friday night. Freeze Warnings are in effect for those time periods. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1007 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 TODAY: The low pressure system that has been situated over the region has since moved out over the eastern plains. Because of this, generally dry and mild conditions are on tap for the better half of the day. Additionally, today will be another day of below normal temperatures, before warming up to more seasonable temperatures come the weekend. Periodic gusty winds are possible in the westernmost part of our CWA today as the low exits the region. Afternoon gusts will likely fall within the 30-35 mph range. Clearing skies tonight and this much colder airmass in place will promote effective radiational cooling and below freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning. Conditions will be most favorable across northwest Colorado and into some of the higher elevation valleys in the San Juan and Central Colorado River Basins. Hence, the previous Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for those areas. Widespread temperatures of 25-30F are expected, with values dropping as low as 20F in favored spots. If you have sensitive vegetation or outdoor plumbing, now is a good time to take necessary precautions to protect them. FRIDAY + THE WEEKEND: By Friday, high pressure will begin to nose in from the west, with an area of stationary low pressure situated over SoCal. This will create a Rex Block for the West, while deep troughing dominates the eastern CONUS. This setup will keep conditions fairly stagnant for the coming weekend, with generally light cloud cover and minimal precipitation chances. Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday will warm from the previous night, but will still be below freezing in some valley locations. Therefore, another Freeze Warning has been issued for the same locations as Thursday for the same time period. Models are hinting at some isolated showers over the San Juans/Four Corners area come Sunday afternoon as the low pressure begins to exit the Rex Block pattern. Although, there are still some discrepancies with timing and location so details are vague at the moment. Lastly, the next chance for active weather across eastern Utah and western Colorado is not expected until early to mid-next week. Models remain in poor agreement over most details regarding this next system, so stay tuned. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1146 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 There are still some lingering low stratus clouds, but this should clear by 2000Z, if not earlier. FEW to SCT mid and high level clouds are possible during the afternoon, but SKC is generally expected beginning this evening. Strong northeasterly wind gusts are expected across most of eastern Utah, northwestern Colorado, and the Four Corners area during the afternoon and evening today. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Friday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. Freeze Warning from midnight Friday night to 10 AM MDT Saturday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BS AVIATION...TGJT  099 FXUS63 KLOT 151757 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A fall storm system will move through the area today and Friday bringing periods of rain showers and gusty northwesterly winds (the latter primarily on Friday). - Frosty and near-freezing conditions are favored away from Lake Michigan Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday night. - After the brief period of chilly weather, there will be a warming trend this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Though Tonight: Per recent GOES-19 water vapor imagery, an upper-level trough is lifting northeastward across the Rocky Mountains toward the central Plains ahead of a vigorous northern-stream trough digging southeastward into the Dakotas. Pressure falls on the order of 1 to 2 mb/hr have commenced in central Oklahoma (likely augmented by convection), which will spread northeastward with time as the lead upper-level trough lifts atop a southwest- to northeastward-oriented low-level baroclinic zone stretching into the Great Lakes. Generally speaking, the forecast for the next 24 to 48 hours remains on track with the expectation for the first fall storm of the season to move through the Great Lakes region. As this occurs, a myriad of weather conditions will occur in our local area. After daybreak, showers and areas of drizzle (already developing at press time) will gradually expand across northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana. As our area will be somewhat removed from the strongest forcing (warm conveyer belt focused just south of our area, and increasing frontogenetical forcing focused to our north), am not expecting hefty precipitation totals through the first half of the day. Coverage of showers and drizzle should maximize this afternoon as the surface low moves directly over our area, though again coverage may be more scattered than widespread owing to somewhat disjointed forcing. Nevertheless, seasonably high PWATs (nearing 2 inches) will support torrential downpours where showers are most persistent this afternoon. Am seeing quite a bit of variance in the exact track of the surface low in high-res guidance early this morning, so will hedge toward global guidance (which often does not suffer impacts of convective effects). Such a hedge favors the track of the low passing directly from LaSalle to Chicago this evening while deepening a mb or two per hour. With this in mind, will have to watch for a narrow window for moisture-driven surface- based instability to sneak along and east of I-55 this evening (5 to 9 PM) to support low-topped convection along or just ahead of the synoptic cold front. The overlap of strongly veering low-level wind profiles within the low-centroid and high moisture-driven convective layer does raise concern for low- topped supercell structures, though would have to think they would be harmless given limited opportunity for breaks in cloud cover to steepen low-level lapse rates (effectively limiting the opportunity for truly surface-based convection). In the off chance that the surface low moves even further north than expected AND there is partial sunshine in the narrow warm sector to steepen low-level lapse rates, cannot discount a threat for a brief tornado. At this point, we assess the chance of such an outcome to be very low (less than 5%), a sentiment that is shared by SPC (we did check in with them this morning). So, will continue to withhold mentioning a threat for severe weather today in the HWO and graphical products and allow for observations this afternoon guide adjustments in strategy, if needed. In the immediate wake of the cold front this evening, initial pressure rises onthe order of 2 to 3 mb/hr will drive a period of westerly winds gusting 30 to 35 mph. Robust cold air advection will send temperatures falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s overnight with wind chills by daybreak Friday solidly in the low to mid 40s. The overnight period is favored to be dry for most areas, though can envision a few showers continuing near and southeast of I-57 near and just behind the cold front. Friday: On Friday, the northern-stream trough will whip through the Great Lakes anchored by a seasonably cool 500mb temperatures near -25C. A low-level trowel-like structure within the cyclonic shear axis of the trough will support a diurnal flare of showers with peak coverage during the afternoon hours across the area. Pressure rises will actually be greatest during the afternoon (+10mb/6hr) as a 1040mb surface high builds into the plains. As a result, the expectation is for a period of strong north to northwesterly winds Friday afternoon, peaking in the 35 to 40 mph range. Locally higher gusts of 45 to 55 mph cannot be ruled out in the tallest showers. Extensive stratus and continued cold air advection will limit highs to the lower 50s, though would not be surprised if temperatures remain in the upper 40s as hinted by more aggressive deterministic guidance. As the upper-level trough whips overhead, tumbling temperatures atop the warm waters of Lake Michigan will set the stage for the blossoming of lake effect rain showers. With inversion heights progged to climb to nearly 20kft and above the minus 20C level, cannot rule out a few lightning strikes and graupel (soft hail) in the deepest lake effect convective cores. The northerly wind direction will point the stream of lake effect showers into northwestern Indiana during the afternoon, though any mesolows may tend to push showers into Cook County, as well. Wind gusts along the immediate shoreline may also routinely poke above 45 mph (stronger near any mesolows). Will brief the day shift to consider hoisting a Wind Advisory for Lake and Porter counties in northwestern Indiana centered on the Friday afternoon period (typically like to wait until within 24 hours of an event to pull the trigger on a headline). Taken altogether, Friday is shaping up to be a rather raw and chilly day out there. The tree canopy will likely lose a lot of colorful leaves. Friday night into Saturday: The pattern will remain fairly progressive as the surface low pulls away from our area and the surface high pressure system slides toward the middle Mississippi River Valley. Am not convinced winds will crash quickly Friday night owing to a continued pressure gradient in our local area ahead of the approaching surface high pressure system until literally daybreak. Even so, clearing skies (by way of tumbling inversion heights) and continued cold air advection will still push temperatures into the low to mid 30s overnight. The exception will be across northwestern Indiana where lake effect stratus will likely continue through the night. This period continues to be a focus for potential frost/freeze headlines primarily across portions of Illinois. While Saturday will feature full sunshine and weak winds (as the surface high slides directly overhead), the very chilly start to the day will serve as a low starting point for temperatures leading to afternoon highs generally in the 50s. Saturday night will be chilly once again, though the coldest temperatures will favor areas east of I-55 where winds will be weakest along the backside of the surface high. Can envision a need for frost headlines again where temperatures are coldest. Southwesterly return flow will become established by Sunday along the backside of the surface high pressure system marking the start of a warming trend into next week.Borchardt && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Main Concerns: - Periods of rain/showers and drizzle into this evening with associated VSBY restrictions to IFR to MVFR at times - CIGs lowering to IFR this afternoon, with a possible period of LIFR this evening, and then returning to MVFR later tonight - Gusty west-northwest winds tonight becoming north-northwest on Friday - Scattered showers late Friday morning through the afternoon A strengthening storm system will affect the region through Friday. Rain showers streaming northeast into this evening will include potentially moderate rates at times, but also areas of drizzle during lighter rainfall rates. Any TS are likely to remain south of the terminals. As surface low pressure tracks overhead this evening, that conceptually should support the lowest flight categories, followed by improvement overnight. Winds will shift from southeast this afternoon to southwest early this evening with the surface low passage and then gusty west-northwest in the late evening and overnight as the low tracks across lower MI. The direction will further veer to north-northwest (320-350 deg) late Friday morning through the afternoon. Gusts will most frequently be in the 25-30 kt range, though sporadic gusts to ~35 kt are plausible Friday afternoon. An upper disturbance will yield scattered showers, developing as early as prior to midday Friday, peaking in coverage in the early to mid afternoon, and then waning towards/by sunset Friday. VSBY restrictions are possible if these showers directly affect the terminals, though deferred this subsequent updates. Castro && .MARINE... Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Over the next 24 to 48 hours, the first fall storm system of the season will move through the Great Lakes. As the low lifts from near Kansas City to Chicago today, east-southeasterly winds will increase across southern Lake Michigan leading to waves generally of 3 to 5 feet along the Illinois shoreline. Westerly winds will increase in magnitude after sunset on the immediate backside of the system and behind a cold front with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 kt and a few gale force gusts to 35 kt. Friday afternoon, a secondary cold front will surge down Lake Michigan leading to a change in wind direction to northerly and rapid increase in wind speeds. Sustained winds of 30 to 35 kt with frequent gusts to 40 kt are expected, with locally higher gusts in excess of 45 kt possible on the west side of lake effect rain showers. The strongest wind gusts are expected Friday afternoon and evening before gradually tapering after midnight early Saturday morning. A Gale Warning is in effect from 1 PM to 1 AM Friday night into Saturday morning. Finally, strong lake induced instability may support waterspouts near lake effect showers Friday afternoon and evening. Borchardt && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 10 PM CDT Friday for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  098 FXUS64 KEWX 151757 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Heavy rainfall threat prompts Flood Watch for Val Verde County from Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning. - One final day of hot and humid weather, then cold front arrives pre-dawn Friday with strong northerly winds in it's wake - Much cooler air behind the cold front on Friday through Sunday with a warming trend returning early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rapid refresh runs depict a region of early morning streamer rain showers, possibly a storm or two forming NW of the San Antonio metro into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Should a storm form near Rocksprings, it could be in a favorable environment to become severe as the LLJ influences storm motion. The more likely risk (SPC marginal, 1 of 5) will be over the west half of Val Verde county where the storms have be firing near Big Bend and moving NE. High RH conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected again today, and eastern counties are expected to see enough sunshine to cook up to the 90-95 degree range. Dry air mixing into the region from the Gulf is thanks to a TUTT low that is moving from the Yucatan peninsula toward Brownsville. This impact will likely give the central and eastern counties abundant sunshine and suppressed (or no) rain chances for the daytime period. Farther west, the Edwards Plateau will continue to get waves of Pacific tropical moisture, but most of it remaining west of DRT through up to 00Z. Right around 00Z, the HRRR 0Z 10/15 run depicts storms over Mexico advancing NE toward DRT which would outpace the approaching cold front. The front does accelerate S over Western Val Verde County in the 00Z to 06Z window, with most model data depicting the most intense rains for our area to be 00Z to 03Z in western Val Verde county where we are advertising 1 to 3 inch amounts and isolated pockets up to 6 inches. This focus could advance slightly east, as there are some hints to that trends in the NAM and HRRR runs. Thus we might look at this later this morning and decide that the flood threat needs an expansion to Edwards/Kinney Counties. The one thing that could hinder the rains from shifting east is the speed of the front into the Edwards plateau, to where the north winds precede the onset of heavy precipitation, thus limiting the heavy rain potential to only areas where the front and storm timing were more aligned. The rain potential drops off dramatically farther east, and earlier model cycles had large areas getting no rain at all. This has been revised to a more 30-50 PoP environment for the more populated areas of South Central TX. Most of the rain chances east of the Edwards Plateau will be falling from 06Z to 15Z Friday and is expected along and just behind the front. Forecast time sections depict a deep layer fropa by Friday morning leading to rain ending rather abruptly by 15Z. The deep layer lines up with MOS guidance signals that we'll be in line for a wind advisory with winds gusting up to 45 mph late Friday morning. Thick mid-level clouds and strong cold air advection with minimal downsloping should lead to a dramatic drop of around 20 degrees in the high temperature as compared to those expected today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday night's winds will continue to be a bit blustery, and we'll expect to see some wind chill index values falling into the 30s and 40s by early Saturday morning. Fewer clouds are expected by Saturday morning, but the winds remainingsteady should limit how cold the lows will get. A drier day Saturday should allow for filtered sunshine but the cooling gains bringing lows in the 40s and 50s will lead to highs near or perhaps slightly cooler than the Friday maxes. North winds finally become tame Saturday evening, and some light winds could allow for some min temps in the upper 30s to low 40s over northern counties. Another chilly and dry day is expected to continue Sunday into Monday, with the return of a warming trend to begin daytime Monday. Tropical cyclones dancing around in the Eastern Pacific have made the latter periods hard to manage, and the latest model cycles now push back our better chances for rains to arrive with another front about 8-9 days out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 There is a mix of low clouds across most areas of South Central Texas with high clouds mainly over the Pecos area and extending into Val Verde County as of 1 PM CDT/18Z. VFR conditions are in place for the local area terminals early this afternoon and anticipated to keep trend through at least mid evening. Then, weather conditions begin to change over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains as a cold front arrives and moves across that region. KDRT has the best chances for showers and storms to impact the terminal with MVFR cigs and vsbys late tonight continuing through Friday morning. In the wake of the front, strong north winds follow with speeds of 18 to 30 knots and gusts up to 45 knots. The frontal boundary and associated strong and gusty winds are forecast to arrive across the I-35 corridor between 09Z and 10Z Friday. Breezy to windy conditions and gusty winds are forecast to remain across the local area for most of the day on Friday before relaxing Friday night (VFR conditions forecast for this period). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 63 67 50 69 / 40 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 59 63 46 65 / 50 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 63 66 49 67 / 80 50 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 66 48 68 / 40 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 66 69 48 70 / 40 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 69 51 70 / 40 20 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 69 51 69 / 40 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 68 70 52 70 / 40 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ171>173- 183>194-202>209-217>225-228. Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ183. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...17  193 FXUS61 KILN 151759 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 159 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Backed off on flood threat for tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected into tonight with a few lingering showers possible into Friday. There is a low end severe weather threat this evening ahead of a cold front moving through. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts. 2) Gusty winds are expected on Friday with a rapid drop in temperatures. Frost is likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1) A warm front will lift north into our area tonight ahead of a low pressure system riding east along it. This will be followed by a strong cold front that will push southeast across our area through Friday morning. Good moisture transport will develop across the region in the developing southwest flow through this evening. As the warm front lifts north into our area and the low approaches, shear profiles will be on the increase. However, there remains some question as to how much instability will develop/be advected up into our area ahead of this. As of now, it looks like the best chance for some destabilization will be across our far west/southwest. This is where the best chance for any severe storms seems to be this evening. If some stronger storms are able to develop, damaging wind would be the primary threat. With high PWs, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any stronger storms, but this threat too looks to be limited. Between the warm front tonight and the cold front on Friday morning, we will have non-diurnal temperatures over the next 24 hours. Temperatures will remain cool through much of this afternoon before slowly rising overnight in developing southwest low level flow. Temperatures will then rapidly drop off from the northwest Thursday morning as strong low level CAA overspreads the area. Key Message 2) In the low level CAA, temperatures will level off/continue to drop through the day on Friday with readings by late afternoon only in the mid 50s across the area. Gusty winds will also develop in the CAA with wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range possible through the day. The cold air will then remain in place across our area through the weekend. Saturday night looks to be the coldest night, with clear skies and light winds. Will undercut guidance a bit with lows in the low to mid 30s and widespread frost expected. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR cigs are hanging tough across the area early this afternoon and expect this to continue until the warm front begins to lift into our area late this afternoon into this evening. Scattered showers will develop as we head into this evening along with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm. In strengthening southwest low level flow, some LLWS will also be possible at times overnight. A cold front will move southeast across the region late tonight into Friday morning. As it does, winds will swing around to the west and then northwest and increase, with gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range possible through the day on Friday. MVFR cigs will then prevail through the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Occasional MVFR conditions are possible through Friday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL  179 FXUS63 KDDC 151759 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1259 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong north winds and much cooler temperatures Thursday. - Wind chills in the 20s Friday morning. North winds diminishing Friday with cool temperatures. - First widespread frost and freeze of the fall season is expected Saturday morning, with temperatures in the 20s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Mid-upper level trough that has been supplying the area with dreary weather conditions will depart later this morning and into this afternoon. Any lingering rain, storms, and fog will diminish from southwest to northeast late this morning with clearing skies and breezy conditions into the later afternoon. Tonight has the potential to bring some frost and perhaps a freeze. However, uncertainty remains with the level of winds that could limit those impacts, so held off on any headlines for now. Frost/Freeze headlines will be near certain Friday night into Saturday morning as widespread upper 20s to low 30s are expected across nearly all of western and central Kansas. With light winds and clear skies, freeze and frost are highly likely. This is shaping up to be a widespread issue for plants, so precautions should be started to protect any most vulnerable crops and plants. A warming trend will commence for the latter half of the weekend and into next week as 850 mb temperature anomalies go back to above average per global models. As far as the next chance of any precipitation is concerned, only low POPs (30-40%) are in the forecast Wednesday and Thursday, but varying patterns are evident among the globals, putting low confidence in the longer range. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Drier air was filtering into southwest Kansas in the wake of a cold front. This will continue through the period, resulting in CIGS rising and clearing this evening and overnight. Expect a continuation of 15-20 kt north winds through the period, except for a possible lull later this evening with the loss of daytime mixing. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...Finch  166 FXUS63 KEAX 151758 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1258 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely this morning and afternoon. However, rainfall totals have trended downward, and the remaining flood watch has been canceled. - A cold front will move through the region from west to east this afternoon, with northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 to 30 mph behind the front. - Much colder and drier air will move in behind the front, with high temperatures on Friday only reaching the low to mid 50s and gusty northwesterly winds continuing into Friday afternoon. - Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning should drop into the mid to upper 30s, with areas of frost likely. Temperatures may flirt with the freezing mark across northern Missouri and NE Kansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current H5 analysis shows the upper low centered over the Front Range, with enhanced southwesterly mid/upper level flow downstream across Kansas and Missouri. At the surface, the accompanying surface cyclone is currently lifting to the northeast out of northern Oklahoma. This has helped generate a large shield of showers and thunderstorms across eastern/southeastern Kansas, lifting to the northeast into our CWA. The surface low should continue to lift northeast through the morning hours, pulling a warm front south to north through much of the CWA and allowing for temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the area by early afternoon. Scattered showers with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms are likely through the remainder of the morning hours and into early afternoon. However, expected rainfall totals have trended significantly downward, and the remaining flood watch in effect across far southern portions of the CWA has been canceled. The closed mid/upper low across the Front Range is progged to become an open wave and eject into the central CONUS by later today, which will push the surface low and trailing cold front through the CWA from west to east this afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly behind the front, increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Colder temperatures and drier air will also move in behind the front. Another mid/upper trough will become more amplified and dig further south out of Canada and into the Midwest late tonight into early Friday, sending another reinforcing shot of colder and drier air, with temperatures falling into the mid 40s by Friday morning. With gusty northwesterly winds continuing, wind chills Friday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s. With strong cold air advection on Friday, temperatures will struggle to warm, and guidance has continued to trend colder with max temps Friday now only projected to reach the lower to mid 50s (although high res guidance suggests even colder temps than this). Gusty north northwesterly winds will continue through mid to late afternoon. The pressure gradient should begin to subside by Friday evening as a 1036 mb surface high slides eastward out of the central High Plains and toward our CWA. By Friday night, the surface high should be centered directly overhead, yielding calm winds, clear skies, and low dew points. This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across most of the region, with temperatures potentially flirting with the freezing mark across portions of northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. This should yield areas of frost across the area, with some sort of frost/freeze product potentially being needed depending on how guidance trends over the next 36 hours. Saturday shouldbe a beautiful (albeit slightly cool) mid October day, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, clear skies, and light winds. Mid level ridging begins to build in from the west by Sunday and into next week out initially out ahead of a shortwave trough over Baja California and then out ahead of a longwave trough that is progged to develop off the West Coast by Monday/Tuesday. This should bring in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the low to mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon and mid to even upper 70s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Showers are clearing out ahead of a cold front that will push through the forecast area this afternoon, with CIGS lifting to MVFR and eventually VFR after sunset as dry air rushes into western MO. Winds will rapidly shift to northwesterly at 12 to 18 kts, gusting to 25 to 30+ kts, this afternoon through the overnight hours as the front passes. Could see some borderline MVFR tomorrow after 15Z as clouds wrap back around into central Missouri. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...Shaw/Curtis  147 FXUS63 KLBF 151758 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1258 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Periods of rainfall are expected through early this afternoon, with at least wetting rainfall likely across much of the area. However, recent trends have favored lower precipitation amounts, with the highest totals expected across western Nebraska. -The potential for frost and freezing temperatures increases Friday and Saturday mornings. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for western Nebraska Thursday night into Friday morning, where temperatures may fall to 28°F or colder. - Moderate to high confidence in a return to drier and above normal temperatures by the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, an upper-level southern-stream trough and associated low are located across central Colorado and will gradually move northeastward through the day. Ahead of this system, southwesterly flow aloft remains established across the region, with a relatively strong upper-level jet streak providing additional large-scale forcing for ascent. Upper-level divergence, combined with mid-level warm air advection and frontogenesis, will support periods of precipitation across the area through the early afternoon hours. Across northwestern portions of the forecast area, a deformation band is expected to develop within the broader precipitation shield. This region of enhanced deformation and associated mesoscale ascent may support locally greater precipitation amounts, particularly across western Nebraska. However, current water-vapor satellite imagery indicates a more pronounced and progressive dry slot advancing into the region, which may result in a quicker reduction in precipitation coverage and intensity than previously anticipated. Recent model guidance has trended toward this scenario, with the 00Z HREF favoring lighter precipitation amounts across central portions of the area and somewhat higher amounts farther west and east. The greatest potential for precipitation totals exceeding 0.50 inch remains across western portions of the forecast area, where the deformation band may support locally enhanced precipitation rates. Overall, the trend toward a more progressive dry slot has resulted in decreasing confidence in higher precipitation totals across the area, though wetting rainfall remains possible. Aside from precipitation, the primary concern today will be the development of strong northerly to northwesterly winds behind an approaching cold front. The main surface low will track east of the region, allowing the associated cold front to move southeastward through north-central Nebraska and across much of the forecast area from late morning into the afternoon. Strong cold air advection behind the boundary, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient and increasing boundary-layer mixing, will support sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph possible. Recent model guidance has trended stronger with the post-frontal winds, particularly across northern portions of the area. BUFKIT soundings depict a mixed layer extending to around 1 km AGL, with peak wind speeds within this layer generally near 40 knots. Although the strong pressure gradient and cold air advection should support gusty conditions, the magnitude of the available winds within the mixed layer suggests that widespread gusts reaching High Wind Warning criteria are unlikely. Nevertheless, strong and gusty winds will remain a concern through much of the afternoon. Temperatures will also be considerably cooler behind the front, with highs generally in the lower to middle 50s across the area. Thursday night into Friday morning, strong Canadian surface high pressure will build southward into the region behind the departing system. Continued cold air advection will establish a considerably colder air mass, with 850-mb temperatures falling into the -3 to - 7°C range. As the surface high approaches, increasing subsidence should promote clearing skies, while the surface pressure gradient gradually weakens across western Nebraska. This will allow winds to diminish across western portions of the area, supporting more efficient radiational cooling overnight. Farther east, a tighter pressure gradient will maintain stronger northerly winds, limiting the potential for additional radiational cooling despite the colder air mass. The greatest confidence in freezing temperatures remains along and west of Highway 61, where overnight lows are expected to fall to 28°F or colder in some locations. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for these areas Thursday night into Friday morning, where confidence is highest in the potential for a hard freeze. Farther east, temperatures may also approach the freezing mark, though confidence in the eastern extent of freezing temperatures and frost remains lower. Lingering gusty winds across central and eastern portions of the area may inhibit widespread frost development, even where temperatures approach or fall below freezing. Given these uncertainties, additional cold-weather headlines have been held off for now, though an upgrade to a Freeze Warning and the issuance of a Frost Advisory may be warranted with the next forecast update. In addition to the freezing temperatures, lingering northerly winds Friday morning may produce wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s across portions of the area. This will represent a substantial change from the recent stretch of mild temperatures. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the potential for the first widespread frost and freeze of the season is occurring relatively late compared to what is typically observed across the region. The median date of the first frost is around September 21, followed by the first freeze around September 29 and the first hard freeze, defined as temperatures of 28°F or colder, around October 10. By Friday afternoon, surface high pressure will gradually shift eastward across the region. Increasing sunshine and diminishing winds should allow temperatures to recover into the lower to middle 50s, though conditions will remain cooler than average for this time of year. Friday night into Saturday morning, the combination of clear skies, light winds, and the lingering cool air mass should provide another favorable period for radiational cooling. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s across much of the area. Confidence is higher that frost will become more widespread Saturday morning as the surface high remains nearby and winds weaken further. Additional frost or freeze headlines may be needed as confidence increases in the magnitude and coverage of the colder temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Strong upper level ridging will continue into the weekend allowing for surface high pressure to build south out of Canada keeping conditions dry through the first half of next week. As high pressure settles to the southeast of Nebraska by Saturday, warm air advection will begin to push milder air into the region. Temperatures will steadily rise from the mid 60s to low 70s on Saturday into the 70s by Tuesday. These highs will easily be at least 5 degrees above normals for this time of year. Overnight lows will also rise through the middle of next week. Saturday lows will be almost 10 degrees warmer than Friday night lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Overnight temperatures will rise backinto the mid 40s to low 50s by the middle of the week. Again these lows will be well above normals (normal in the mid 30s). The next chance of some isolated precipitation will arrive on Wednesday and Wednesday night as a weak shortwave trough pivots across western Nebraska. Confidence remains low in timing and coverage of this system though, so nothing more than some slight chance PoPs (less than 20 percent) are in the forecast at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR ceilings will rapidly clear from the north this afternoon. VFR should prevail all areas this evening. Late this evening and overnight, another area of MVFR ceilings will drop southeastward across north central Nebraska. These will clear Friday morning with all areas VFR thereafter. Winds will be gusty areawide through tonight from the north at 15-25 kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058-069-094. && $$ SHORT TERM...Labenz LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Taylor  148 FXUS64 KAMA 151758 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1258 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Breezy conditions expected Thursday afternoon and evening, with wind gusts possibly approaching 50 mph, particularly in the northwestern Panhandles. - Low temperatures Friday night are forecast to dip below freezing in portions of the combined Panhandles and may lead to frost or freeze products being issued. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to continue through the night tonight and through the morning, with the southeastern Texas Panhandle holding onto precipitation chances a little bit longer, lasting into the afternoon. Currently, a cutoff low is analyzed over Colorado. As the day progresses, the low will travel east and be ingested by a strong upper-level trough over the Central Plains. A surface low positioned over the TX/NM border will also be moving in line with the aforementioned cutoff low, though it will have a more northeasterly trajection, bringing it through the Panhandles. A cold front associated with the surface low will begin to move in and through the area today. This cold front will bring cooler temperatures and drier conditions, particularly as we go into the overnight Thursday night. A strong pressure gradient will exist behind the cold front and an associated LLJ with 40-50kt winds will drive breezy conditions at the surface. We will be considering wind advisories for at least portions of the northwest combined Panhandles. Thursday's high temperatures look to peak in the low to mid 60s in the northern and western portions of the Panhandles, while the southeastern corner of the TX Panhandle will peak near 70. Thursday night, the northern and western Panhandles look to have low temperatures bottom out in the mid 30s to low 40s while the southeastern corner of the TX Panhandles drops to the mid 40s. Abdullayev/Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong upper-level trough will continue progressing off to the east, with a ridge building in behind it. Temperatures look to stay quite cool Friday with high temperatures in the mid 50s across the combined Panhandles. Friday night's low temperatures may approach freezing temperatures and may even dip into the upper 20s in the northern and northwestern Panhandles, frost and freeze products may be needed. As the ridge builds in and a cutoff low moves over the Southwest US, we are expecting temperatures to gradually warm up through the weekend and into next week. The upper-level ridge looks to stick with us through the next week, though some operational models want to initialize a shortwave trough over Colorado putting us in a favorable location Sunday night and Monday for some precipitation. However, the other models do not agree with this solution, and a lot of variables remain unsettled. We will be watching this over the next few days and adjust the forecast as needed. Midweek next week, a deep trough off the Pacific Coast will begin to move over the Western US and move east. Exact impacts are not known at this time, however, it is another weather system we will watch over the several days to see how it progresses. Abdullayev/Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ceilings are clearing out at all sites and VFR conditions will eventually settle in later this afternoon. Strong winds continue at all sites as well, with gusts potentially reaching up to 45 kts. Later tonight, VFR conditions should prevail at all sites;however, they are expected to be impacted by low level wind shear. Surface winds will decrease overnight as a result, but wind speeds will kick up again once the sun rises Friday morning. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for TXZ001>014-016>018-317. OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...55  175 FXUS64 KBMX 151759 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1259 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1252 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 - Record Highs: Temperatures will be well above normal through Friday, with medium to high chances of record high temperatures. - Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region Friday night into Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 Near record high temperatures remain in the forecast for the next two days, as the region remains situated under a stout ridge at the surface, and the upper-levels. Thankfully, this ridging pattern will begin to break down into Friday evening, as a very deep trough and cold front begin to move SE through the Midwest. Winds ahead of, and behind this cold front will be rather strong, as the pressure gradient becomes quite tight. Sustained winds through the weekend will range between 10-15 MPH, with gusts over 25+ MPH at times. It's these stiff winds that will quickly usher in much cooler weather, with overnight lows on Friday dropping into the mid-40s and low-50s. Highs through the weekend will generally range in the 60's, with lows generally ranging 40's. By Monday, temperatures will begin to slowly rebound, as weak upper-level ridging begins to reestablish itself off to our west. Thankfully, this rise in temperature is expected to be gradual, with only upper-70s expected by the middle of next week. Limited rainfall is expected the next seven days as well, with only low shower chances on Friday ahead of the passing cold front due to limited moisture. /44/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 Under a persistent surface ridge, VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week, with MinRHs dropping into the low 30% range for many locations. A cold front will move through the area Friday into Saturday leading to gusty winds, minimal rainfall, and much drier and cooler conditions behind the front. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 Record High Temperatures: Thu Oct. 15: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 92/2025 KANB: 87/1975 KTCL: 91/1962 KMGM: 92/1881 Fri Oct. 16: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 90/2025 KANB: 87/1965 KTCL: 90/1962 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 61 84 47 65 / 0 20 10 0 Anniston 63 84 48 65 / 0 20 10 0 Birmingham 64 84 49 65 / 0 20 10 0 Tuscaloosa 63 85 50 68 / 0 20 0 0 Calera 63 84 49 65 / 0 20 10 0 Auburn 64 84 52 67 / 0 20 0 0 Montgomery 64 86 52 69 / 0 20 10 0 Troy 63 85 51 68 / 0 10 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.../44/ AVIATION.../44/