497 FXUS63 KLSX 151803 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 103 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the first half of the day, becoming isolated to scattered this afternoon and evening. There is a low potential for isolated damaging winds, and lower potential for a brief, week tornado. - A strong cold front brings much cooler and drier conditions Friday through Sunday morning. A gradual warming trend begin Sunday and continues into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Showers and thunderstorms approach the area early this morning out of the southwest and continue advancing northeast over the CWA through early this afternoon. A strong cold front then quickly moves west to east with much cooler air spilling into the area overnight into Friday. The area being monitored for the next round of showers and thunderstorms is currently over sections of eastern OK. This activity is being driven by a shortwave trough and corresponding surface low in advance of the upper level low over CO. The surface low parallels I-44 on its northeast track with broad scale ascent, lifting the stationary boundary northward through the area through the morning. A broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms accompany the warm front with HRRR/NAMNest indicating a few strong cells in close proximity to the warm front and surface low. HREF ensembles show mean CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg with around 40 knots of shear and backed surface winds near the boundary resulting in curved hodographs. These indicators would normally raise some concern, but in this case, showers and embedded thunderstorms enter the southwest CWA between 10-12z and near the MS River around 15z. RAP model soundings show a capping inversion just below 850mb, CAPE below 500 J/kg, and mid-level lapse rates below 6C. The system and front moves relatively quickly, placing the warm front north of I-70 around 18-19z. The issue then, is to monitor the warm sector over southeast MO and southwest IL, where HREF shows roughly 20-40 percent probabilities for cloud cover of great than 50 percent. This leaves much to be desired with respect to severe potential with low confidence that severe weather will materialize. Instability will have a very short window of 3-4 hours (2-6PM) for recovery at a time of year with lower sun angle and earlier sunset, considering that enough clearing occurs quickly enough. Therefore, while we are messaging the marginal risk, the threat for severe weather looks very low and isolated at best. Damaging winds would be the primary threat. The low tornado potential is also limited in aerial coverage (along and north of I-70 and east of I-55). A strong cold front trails the system and races west to east late this evening and overnight as the system moves into the the Great Lakes and is wrapped into a vigorous northern stream Canadian upper trough. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible along the front as upper ascent evacuates to the northeast. There is not much concern for severe potential along the front itself as much of the atmosphere is work over and we enter the diurnal downward trend. The front should be east of the CWA around or just after midnight with a surface ridging beginning to build in from the northwest. Strong cold air advection drops temperatures overnight with cold air continuing to advect in through the day Friday. The surface high remain departed enough to the west that the upper trough exhibits more influence in terms of moisture. Though we may briefly see partial clearing early Friday, higher RH advects southeastward with the amplified upper trough overhead and surface ridge to the west.Clouds will build back in Friday in conjunction with continuing cold air advection. It is expected to be the coolest day of the fall so far. Highs today will range from the 70s over northern sections of the CWA to the mid-80s over southeast MO and southwest IL. Lows tonight drop into the 40s behind the cold front. Highs Friday will be in the 50s, even struggling reach 60 degrees across far southeast MO. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The fall chill will continue into Saturday before temperatures begin to moderate Sunday into next week. A long stretch of dry weather is expected through much of next week. The amplified trough shifts east of the area Friday night into Saturday with a longwave upper ridge over the western 2/3rds of the CONUS. Northwesterly flow continues aloft as the surface ridge moves southeastward and its orientation varies between RAP/NAM and long range suites. These vary from a slanted ridge axis to a more formidable, consolidated surface high. Though minor, range solutions may be the difference between a decent frost and cold, morning dew on the lawn. The orientation, placement of the ridge, and resulting surface flow suggest that while temperatures will be the coolest of the season, so far, NBM is likely too cool, leaning at or just below the 25th percentile of the IQR. LREF guidance has not only tightened in its IQR range (3-4 degrees), it has consistently shown morning lows in the upper 30s to low-40s with locally cooler temperatures in the well-known microclimates (e.g. Freedom, and Rose Bud, MO). The scenario is slightly different for Sunday as the high positions overhead and winds become light and variable. Sunday looks like the cooler of the two, barring how quickly the high moves east and return flow commences. General speaking, morning lows in the low in the upper 30s to low-40s will represent a large majority of the area. Locally cooler temperatures will support better frost potential with mid-30s. Upper ridging moves eastward and envelops the region Sunday into next week. The pattern look void of any formidable systems and drives the northern stream track into the northern CONUS/southern Canada. Another surface ridges moves west to east near the Canadian border with dry easterly flow through the midweek period. NBM has suggested high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees through the midweek stretch, but has since come down to more reasonable levels (low to mid-70s). Morning lows will follow suit with temperatures doing a daily stair step from the upper 30s/40s early in the week to 50s by Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Thunderstorm chances are decreasing at all local terminals, and now attention turns to low ceilings and a sharp cold front with gusty northwest winds. Some improvement to VFR ceilings is expected for a few hours at all terminals this afternoon with the possible exception of UIN. However, ceilings are expected to dip back to MVFR and locally IFR levels along and behind a passing cold front this evening and overnight. Winds will also turn to the northwest and increase sharply, and remain elevated through the end of the period. Ceilings are expected to improve again briefly tomorrow morning, but MVFR low stratus will likely return near the end of the period. BRC && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Maples LONG TERM...Maples AVIATION...19  457 FXUS64 KLZK 151803 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 103 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Above normal to near record temperatures will prevail again on Thursday for much of the state. - Scattered showers possible across the northwest half of the state through early Thursday afternoon. - Elevated wildfire danger will be possible on Friday over portions of southern to southeast Arkansas. - Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions over portions of northern Arkansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent radar imgry depicted a decaying QLCS moving ENE acrs Ern OK, and wl lkly be approaching NWrn AR near 12Z Thurs mrng. SOme lingering precip activity is expected acrs NWrn to Nrn AR thru the day Thurs. Thurs thru Fri, a progressive H500 shortwave trof wl quickly dig Swrd into the Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ an asctd sfc pressure dipole amplifying over the CONUS, w/ strengthening cyclonic sfc flow moving NEwrd thru the Ohio River Valley, and a strong trailing Continental Canadian high pressure system moving Swrd thru the Nrn to Cntrl PLains. Time of arrival on this cdfrnt remains consistent, w/ the frnt moving into NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs night, and quickly sweeping acrs the state Fri mrng to early aftn. Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt pushes through, ushering in significantly drier air. With no appreciable precip expected acrs Srn to SErn AR, there is some concern for elevated to near critical wildfire danger over portions of SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 75th to 85th percentile. Concerning weekend low temperatures, morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s remain possible acrs portions of Nrn AR Sat and particularly Sun mrngs, w/ latest NBM 10th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng. Into early next week, aforementioned sfc high pressure wl begin to drift Ewrd, w/ Srly sfc flow resuming, and area temperatures trending upwards once again. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A somewhat active weather pattern anticipated for the forecast period. Highest probabilities for MVFR (or lower) ceilings and reduced visibilities later this evening and into the overnight period will favor the northern terminals. Central to southern Arkansas should remain well within the VFR category through the period. A strong front will bring strong and gusty northerly winds beginning in the overnight period for the northern terminals and progressing southward into tomorrow morning across central to southern Arkansas. Expect winds to gust in excess of 20-30 kts starting tomorrow morning, strongest across central to southern Arkansas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 53 65 44 64 / 10 10 0 0 Camden AR 58 70 45 68 / 10 10 0 0 Harrison AR 46 58 40 61 / 70 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 54 67 44 67 / 10 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 58 67 46 66 / 10 10 0 0 Monticello AR 61 70 47 67 / 0 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 48 65 41 66 / 20 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 49 60 41 62 / 70 0 0 0 Newport AR 56 66 45 64 / 10 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 57 69 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 52 66 43 66 / 40 0 0 0 Searcy AR55 67 44 65 / 10 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 58 68 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...77  441 FXUS66 KPQR 151802 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1102 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SYNOPSIS...High pressure and offshore easterly winds will bring dry and unseasonably warm temperatures today and Friday. The strongest easterly winds are expected along the Columbia River Gorge and western slopes of the Cascades. A weak cold front will bring chances for light rain late Friday night into Saturday, before high pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. The next chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday with an approaching low pressure system, although guidance continues to trend drier. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Satellite imagery and surface observations as of early Thursday morning depict mostly clear skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as an upper-level ridge moves overhead. Will likely remain clear through the morning, though there is a low (10-20%) chance that some stratus develops across the Willamette Valley through 8-9 AM. Today and Friday will be the warmest days of the week, with high temperatures forecast in the upper 70s across interior valleys and 60s along the coast. Some locations may even reach 80 degrees, with a 10-30% chance along the I-5 corridor and a 50-70% chance along valleys of the Cascade foothills. Although high temperatures are expected to be around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October, most locations are not expected to break any records (which were mainly set back in 2022). These could be our last "hot" days of the year, as we typically see temperatures drop off during the second half of October. In addition to warm temperatures, will also see increasing offshore easterly winds beginning this morning along the Columbia River Gorge, eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro, Cascades, and Cascade foothills. Model guidance continues to suggest surface pressure gradients tightening to -5 to -6 mb between Troutdale and The Dalles, producing wind gusts up to 25-35 mph, except up to 45-50 mph on wind-prone exposed ridgetops. Pressure gradients slacken later Friday morning with winds easing by the afternoon. Onshore flow returns by late Friday night into early Saturday morning ahead of an incoming weak cold front. -10/DH && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The aforementioned front will quickly swings through on Saturday, returning cooler temperatures and chances for light rain. Bulk of the precipitation is aimed towards British Columbia and far northwest Washington, so the further south you go in northwest Oregon such as Lincoln County or the southern Willamette Valley, the more likely conditions remain completely dry. Chances for rain totals exceeding 0.10 inch from 5 PM Friday to 5 PM Saturday are only 5-15% from Salem to Longview, and 10-30% along the coast from Tillamook northward and the south WA/north OR Cascades. Conditions quickly dry out Saturday night to Sunday as transient shortwave ridge passes through. Expect seasonable temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across interior valleys and 50s along the coast and Cascades. Monday to Tuesday, the majority of ensemble members are in agreement that an upper-level trough from the northeast Pacific will approach the Pacific Northwest, returning chances for rain between early Monday morning and late Monday night. Will note that these chances have gone down significantly, as of 75% of ensemble members are now showing this trough staying further offshore and progressing southward toward California rather than moving completely over the Pacific Northwest. If this scenario occurs, precipitation would be limited in our area. Chances for 24-hour rain totals exceeding 0.25 inch between 5 AM Monday to 5 AM Tuesday have fallen to 15-20% along the coast, Coast Range, and Willapa Hills, and 5-10% along the I-5 corridor. By Wednesday, ensembles have the upper trough swinging into central California, while weak high pressure re-builds over the Pacific Northwest, favoring predominately dry conditions. At the same time, it does appear that another upper-level trough will begin to approach British Columbia and potentially make its way down into the Pacific Northwest late next week, returning chances for precipitation. -10 && .AVIATION...Through 18Z Friday...Predominately VFR conditions with clear skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington through the TAF period as upper-level high pressure moves over the Pacific Northwest. Offshore flow continues through Friday on the western slopes of the Cascades and Coast Range and to the coast. Breezy winds are expected through the Columbia River Gorge and eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro Area, bringing gusts of 25-30 kts to KTTD and 21-25 kt to KPDX after 19-21z Fri. Gusts up to 20-25 kts are also possible at times through coastal gaps. For the rest of the central and southern Willamette Valley, expect north to northeasterly winds around 5-10 kts. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. Easterly winds increase this afternoon with gusts up to 21-25 kt after 19-21z Thu. Winds gradually weaken after 04-06z Fri. -03 && .MARINE...Benign marine conditions continue. A thermal trough along the coast will bring light, east/northeasterly winds through this morning. Later this afternoon, the thermal trough will break down, returning northerly to northwesterly winds over the waters. A series of fronts passing through the waters will turn winds southerly Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday. Seas remain around 4-7 ft at 10-12 seconds through early Saturday morning. A steeper northwesterly swell arrives this weekend, building seas to 7-9 ft by Saturday evening and 10-12 ft early next week. There is a 5-15% chance for seas exceeding 15 ft on Monday, with the highest chances north of Cape Foulweather and beyond 30-40 NM. Will also note that the long periods from the swells will result in a moderate sneaker wave threat this week. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -10/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  693 FXUS63 KDMX 151807 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 107 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers increase in coverage this morning and into the afternoon, then ending for most areas through the evening. Wrap-around showers possible Friday morning in the north and east. - Becoming windy and much cooler by Thursday night into Friday. Winds out of the north gusting to at least 35-40 mph at times, isolated to 45 mph in north/northwest Iowa. - Frost is likely early Saturday with morning lows in the low to mid 30s. - Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain shower activity early this morning has more recently begun a slow increase in coverage, with spotty showers occurring generally over northern and eastern Iowa. Isolated areas further south and west show very light returns on radar, with some very light rain to drizzle observed at the office at the time of this writing. This activity is within an area of warm air advection ahead of an upper level trough that remains over northern Utah/Colorado, with more widespread rain shower activity occurring over Kansas/Nebraska where deeper saturation through the atmosphere and better upper level support is noted. The expectation is that the more widespread activity will make it into Iowa just before or around sunrise, spreading northeastward through the afternoon before gradually tapering off through the evening. The aforementioned upper level trough lifting northeastward over the next several hours is still expected to merge with another trough over the Dakotas by late morning/early afternoon, resulting in a strengthening system that will support stronger dynamics to result in moderate rainfall activity. Very limited instability overhead will keep concerns for thunderstorms minimal, though isolated thunder is possible on occasion. Rain showers will gradually decrease in coverage from southwest to northeast through the evening, with event total rainfall amounts generally expected around 0.5-1 inch, though a few spots up to 1.5 inches cannot be completely ruled out. Highs today will range in the 50s to 60s, coolest north and west and warmest south/southeast. While dry conditions are expected to return for much of the state through the evening, strong cold air advection arriving on the backside of the deepening surface low pressure system over the Great Lakes will lead to a widespread drop in temperatures and a very noteworthy increase in north/northwest winds, especially into Friday morning. Sustained winds around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30-40 mph are likely, isolated even to 45 mph and possibly even higher over north/northwest Iowa. This is supported by the potential for mixing of higher gusts aloft, which can be more efficient in a cold air advection regime, but low stratus may hang around and limit better mixing from occurring. Given this, the latest forecast calls for winds to remain below but close to advisory criteria in north/northwest Iowa, but any increase in confidence could mean a further boost in winds and resulting headline, so stay tuned for updates. The potential for wrap around light rain showers remains per the greater majority of model guidance, mainly for portions of northern and eastern Iowa during the morning, with only minimal additional rainfall before ending. The strong push of cooler air and limited sunshine will allow for otherwise chilly conditions, as highs are only expected to reach the low 50s across Central Iowa. Winds will follow a decreasing trend through the afternoon and especially evening, as the system responsible pushes further east and high pressure makes it's way into the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Surface high pressure returns later Friday night into Saturday morning leading to light winds, clear skies and good radiational cooling. Temperatures by Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 30s with frost conditions likely so make plans now to protect any sensitive vegetation! With the surface high and an upper ridge in place, dry conditions are expected for the weekend. Temperatures begin to rebound again by later Saturday into Sunday as southwest flow returns. This translates to gradually increasing highs this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday, mid to upper 60s Sunday and then Monday, and in the low to mid 70s Tuesday-Wednsday. The GFS brings a small system near to through the region on Monday but the going forecast remains dry until mid to later next week when there is a bit more consensus for returning precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 LIFR to MVFR conditions are ongoing across the area early this afternoon with low stratus and rain causing visibilities to drop into IFR at times. Have adjusted timing and impacts of rain with the latest guidance, though additional adjustments may still be needed depending on how fast the rain is able to taper off this evening. Only a small break is expected this evening before wrap-around rain moves through portions of northern to northeastern/eastern Iowa overnight into Friday morning. Confidence in timing/impacts remains lower than 30% at KMCW/KALO so no preciptation mentions were included for this second round of rain. Clouds will lift some this evening before falling again overnight. Winds will turn gusty from later this afternoon through Friday morning with gusts of up to around 25-35 knots. Improvement in the winds and ceilings are expected on Friday afternoon. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bury LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...05  722 FXUS61 KRLX 151808 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 208 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A warm front will support mainly showers this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and a few storms continue as a warm front lifts north today. 2) Strong cold front brings showers, storms, and gusty winds on Friday. 3) Cool and drier on Saturday, with widespread frost/freeze conditions expected Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A front, currently draped across southern WV and northeast KY, will begin to shift north as a warm front while the parent low tracks towards the Great Lakes Region. Showers are expected to continue in the vicinity of the front today, then activity will diminish as the front exits the area this evening into tonight. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall remains present across portions of central and southern West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and southwest Virginia, where heavier downpours could prompt isolated high water issues. While isolated storms are not entirely out of the question along the boundary later this afternoon, the risk of severe weather remains low for today. KEY MESSAGE 2... A low pressure system and upper trough will usher a strong cold front across the area on Friday, with showers, storms, and gusty winds expected to occur during the frontal passage. Precipitation should then persist through the night as the upper trough passes overhead. Blustery conditions will also continue into Saturday morning, with 25-30 mph gusts expected across the lowlands, and up to 45 mph gusts possible along the higher terrain. Cold air advection will quickly lower temperatures from west to east behind the front, likely sending temperatures into the 50s across much of the area by the end of the day. Temperatures further lower into the 30s to 40s overnight, which may allow some snowflakes to materialize over the higher elevations of the northeast mountains early Saturday morning. Snow accumulations are not anticipated. KEY MESSAGE 3... On Saturday, winds gradually relax and precipitation comes to an end as high pressure builds in from the west during the day. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below normal, with highs likely remaining in the 50s in the lowlands and 30s to 40s in the mountains. Under calm winds and clear skies, overnight lows are expected to plummet into the 20s to 30s, resulting frost and freeze conditions across the entirety of the forecast area late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Dry conditions are generally expected to continue into the new work week, though temperatures trend warmer as high pressure meanders towards the east coast. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers will support periodic visibility restrictions in the vicinity of a front this afternoon. Widespread sub-VFR ceilings will gradually improve as the front lifts north through the area this afternoon into tonight. Patchy fog may lead to some restrictions overnight, though confidence in development is low as winds may start to increase towards daybreak. MVFR conditions should start to develop from west to east as a cold front brings clouds and precipitation across the area on Friday. Winds will be calm to light into the first part of the night, then flow is expected to increase into Friday morning. LLWS may initially be possible before 15-25kt gusts begin mixing down to the surface on Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement today and extent of fog tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L M M H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions are possible with a strong cold front Friday into Friday night. IFR river valley fog is possible Sunday and Monday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...20  167 FXUS61 KPBZ 151812 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 212 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain shower chances have decreased today. Added a mention of thunder on Friday with a strong cold front. A portion of the area generally east of I-79 has been included in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with damaging winds on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers, possible thunderstorms, and gusty wind tonight and Fri. 2) Colder behind the front, with frost and freeze conditions Sat night. Frost may be possible again Sun night. 3) Dry and warmer next week, but the forecast has very low predictability at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Storms forming in the Midwest today have a low probability of maintaining strength tonight as a low-level jet and nwd- advancing warm front help maintain only modest stabilization in a moistening boundary layer. If storms are maintained, it will be possible to see a stronger gust or two, but the likelihood of impactful weather tonight remains low. Of greater concern is potential for stronger low-topped convective development on Fri, where buoyancy concentrated in the lower levels of the atmosphere will overlap favorably with convergence within a pre-frontal trough within a moderately sheared environment. There remains timing/positional uncertainty in the placement of the pre-frontal trough convergence zone, with some guidance suggesting a slower progression. If this slower progression materializes, there will be better potential for destabilization as enhanced ascent overspreads the region within a strong mid- level jet streak. Better potential for severe weather exists to the east of the Upper Ohio Valley, but at this time, we cannot rule out the potential for the wrn position of the initiating boundary. If it becomes clear that the boundary is favoring earlier passage, the severe weather threat locally will be minimized. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold advection in the wake of a strong cold-frontal passage will support renewal of lake-enhanced showers Fri night within a plume of steeper low-level lapse rates. Temperature is not expected to cool sufficiently for notable snow, although low (<10%) chances for snow exist at the highest elevations of the WV ridges thru the weekend. Elevated wind and cloud cover Fri night are likely to preclude frost/freeze concerns, but conditions will become more favorable Sat night as wind slackens and cloud cover dissipates. Cluster analysis suggests two potential H5 patterns that will govern the Sat/Sun evolution: 1) The scenario that is more likely suggests the H5 trough advancing bodily ewd, with cold air building in Sat night leading to widespread temperature in the 30-35F range and potential frost/freeze conditions. 2) A second scenario features low pressure cutting off from the main trough, leading to a quicker departure, less cold air intrusion, and cooler temperature/frost potential favoring mainly the ridges/northeastern most zones. Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) suggests that the second scenario is driven by the strength of a H5 ridge currently building in the wrn CONUS, and the timing of phasing of TS Simon into the broader flow. If the ridge is stronger and TS Simon slower to phase, it favors a cutoff low development and warmer outcome as discussed in Outcome 2 above. Monitor the forecast for frost/freeze potential. Greatest confidence in impactful temperature will be the northeastern zones, as temps of 30-35 are most likely there in either outcome above. KEY MESSAGE 3... In the wake of the trough, quite a bit of uncertainty grows with the medium-range pattern next week. Much of the guidance favors a H5 ridge building across the Midwest, suggesting increasing warmth for the Upper Ohio Valley. However, other guidance suggests troughing could develop, which would favor cooler temperature. The degree of ridging or troughing in the east appears highly correlated to the position of a wrn-CONUS trough/potential cutoff low around Mon/Tue timeframe. Given this wide variability and dependence on atmospheric flow features that do not yet exist, the forecast next week has very low predictability, and should be consumed with that awareness. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BVI, FKL, and DUJ are the only terminals that remain VFR. They will gradually lower to MVFR cigs as the warm front continues to lift northward. Further deterioration to low MVFR, and eventually IFR, is expected this evening and tonight as the front crosses, and showers overspread the region. There could be isolated thunderstorms as well with elevated instability and a crossing low level jet. This jet should also result in a LLWS potential from late evening through the overnight hours. Overnight, we will also see the wind veer from east to south as conditions remain relatively breezy. By tomorrow morning, areas around PIT and south, are forecast to briefly scatter out by tomorrow morning. During the day, showers and possible thunderstorms ahead of a strong front will bring low MVFR and IFR cigs to areas that were able to scatter out. Wind will freshen up as it veers to the west. Gusts up to 30-40kts are likely with higher gusts up to 45-50kts possible across the higher terrain airports. Outlook... Showers will continue Friday night under subsequent upper troughing. Building high pressure will return dry weather Saturday into next week. Wind will also diminish on Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kramar/WM AVIATION...Lupo  175 FXUS63 KLSX 151812 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 112 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible in southwest Illinois from early to mid afternoon, with damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado possible. For other areas, the threat of severe storms is low. - A strong cold front will bring blustery northwest winds an a sharp cooldown overnight. Below average temperatures are expected through Saturday, with morning frost increasingly likely Saturday and Sunday mornings. - A steady warmup is expected Sunday onward. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The focus of the short term period continues to be on the potential for showers and thunderstorms early this afternoon, followed by the passage of a fall-like cold front this evening and overnight. The latter will bring blustery northwest winds and a sharp cooldown, and it will feel a lot more like you'd expect for mid-October (or even later). As of early afternoon, a surface low was located across north- central Missouri, with a warm front extending east-southeastward into southwest Illinois, and a sharp cold front approaching the Kansas City metro area. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal trough was also noted across east-central and southeast Missouri, with locally enhanced surface convergence along it. This pre-frontal trough has been the focus for convection through the morning, and as of this writing weak and largely elevated thunderstorms have moved across the Mississippi River and into southwest Illinois. Ahead of these storms and the pre-frontal trough, deeper moisture, slightly enhanced instability (~1000J/kg MLCAPE), and backed (albeit weak) surface winds have developed. While cloud cover is still abundant, there has been at least some clearing, and this environment appears to be the most favorable area for strengthening storms over the next few hours. Wind shear is a bit weaker here than further west, where stronger mid/upper level flow exists, but there is just enough to support a low-topped supercell and a brief tornado or two, mostly likely before 3 PM as most of this activity should move east of the area by then. Overall though, confidence is not high that storms will become severe until after they exit the area. West of the pre-frontal trough, while bulk wind shear is a bit higher, veered surface winds and meager instability (in spite of more ample clearing), and a lack of redevelopment in high-resolution model guidance do not strongly suggest that more storms are likely upstream any later in the afternoon. While we likely will see some warm air advection showers, and also a few showers along the advancing cold front, but the probability of strong or severe storms in this area is low. Late this evening, the previously mentioned cold front will surge through the region, bringing strong cold air advection and blustery surface winds. While we don't expect Advisory-level wind speeds, gusts to 30-35 mph will be well within reason, particularly during the day tomorrow as mixing increases. Meanwhile, temperatures will drop quickly, with morning lows dipping into the 40s in most areas before warming only slightly into the 50s during the day thanks to the persistent cold air advection. After reaching the 90s just two days ago, temperatures Friday will be approximately 15 degrees below average. Brisk winds will persist through the day, and weaken in the evening and overnight, allowing for efficient cooling and low temperatures dropping into the low 40s to mid 30s Saturday morning. A few protected river valleys may even flirt with the freezing mark as well, especially in northeast Missouri and the Ozarks, and it's increasingly likely that these wind-protected areas will see some frost Saturday morning. In fact, NBM probabilities for minimum temperatures of 32 degrees or less increase to nearly 50% in northeast Missouri, and chances are likely similar in Ozark river valleys where small-scale cool air drainage contribute additional cooling. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 From Saturday onward, a slow, steady warming trend is expected to develop as an upper level ridge moves overhead, and south- southwesterly low level flow becomes re-established. Surface high pressure and a dry-continental airmass should also keep precipitation chances minimal. After a very chilly morning Saturday, temperatures are likely to rebound only into the low 60s, with a slight increase from the day before thanks largely to clear skies. Overnight, another very chilly night is expected, as surface winds will remain very light and radiative cooling is expected to be quite efficient. Current deterministic forecasts suggest that morning lows in the mid to upper 30s should be common area-wide, with another opportunity for a brief freeze in Ozark river valleys in particular thanks to cool-air drainage. Sunday morning should be the last opportunity for a freeze, although some patchy frost will be in play again Monday morning. From Sunday afternoon onward, southerly low level flow becomes firmly established, and temperatures will steadily warm each day through mid-week. Temperatures are expected to climb back to near average by Sunday afternoon, with high confidence (90+%) in above average temperatures Tuesday onward, and a reasonable chance to exceed 80 degrees (40-60%) Wednesday onward. Meanwhile, little additional precipitation is expected for the next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Thunderstorm chances are decreasing at all local terminals, and now attention turns to low ceilings and a sharp cold front with gusty northwest winds. Some improvement to VFR ceilings is expected for a few hours at all terminals this afternoon with the possible exception of UIN. However, ceilings are expected to dip back to MVFR and locally IFR levels along and behind a passing cold front this evening and overnight. Winds will also turn to the northwest and increase sharply, and remain elevated through the end of the period. Ceilings are expected to improve again briefly tomorrow morning, but MVFR low stratus will likely return near the end of the period. BRC && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRC LONG TERM...BRC AVIATION...BRC  237 FXUS61 KBGM 151813 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 213 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Little change to previous forecast. Added some thunder in for the overnight hours with the warm front moving in. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strengthening low passes north of the region Friday into Saturday with a strong frontal passage Friday night. 2) High pressure and southwest flow will lead to a gradual warm up through next week after a chilly weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A deepening low over the central US will lift into the Great Lakes tonight with a warm front moving into the Northeast. Clouds will begin to increase tonight with a strong low level jet developing. Stable air in the low levels will prevent most of the winds from mixing down but downslope areas of the Finger Lakes into the foot hills south of the NY Thruway may see some gusts of 30 mph tonight. Showers and even a few thunderstorms develop tonight as the warm front lifts in so some thunder was added to the grids after Midnight. The region will be in the warm sector of the low tomorrow. Trends have brought the path of the low a little farther north so odds of some clearing for the Southern Tier and southward has increased. This has helped increase the potential for a little bit of CAPE to develop (roughly between 200 and 400 J/kg). Given shear is over 50 knots, and the cold front being a strong trigger for storms, the potential for thunderstorms along the front to produce strong winds have increased. SPC has moved a slight risk into most of NEPA and parts of the Southern Tier. Forecast hodographs do have some low level curvature ahead of the front, so if there is enough sun to get better surface based CAPE (>500 J/kg), a brief spin up is possible. Precipitation transitions to lake effect rain showers once the front goes through tomorrow evening. NEPA will dry out quickly behind the front as the lake effect rain showers will struggle to make it much past the Southern Tier of NY. 850 mb temperatures plummet post front, falling to near -10C by Saturday morning. Forecast soundings really dry out the boundary layer and a subsidence inversion lowers quickly but given the lake temperatures, lake effect showers will continue longer than modeled. It is looking likely that some of the higher elevations of NY for the Southern Tier and northward could see some flurries Saturday morning when the coldest air moves through. KEY MESSAGE 2... Next week the northeast looks to remain mostly under a large upper level ridge. With weak warm air advection aloft, 850 mb temperatures warm to between 8C and 14C for much of the week. This is well above average for mid October and with dry air in place, sunny conditions will help day time temperatures warm into the 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows will still be on the cooler side with good conditions for radiational cooling most nights. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the remainder of today and this evening. The next system approaches late tonight into Friday morning. Conditions will start deteriorating after midnight, and will likely continue getting worse through the early morning hours. Rain showers will be possible and there could also be some embedded thunderstorms early Friday morning. Confidence is low at this time for the potential for low level wind shear. Model guidance is showing some mixing overnight and if that is the case, it will be more low level turbulence than low level wind shear. However, where surface winds stay below 10 knots, LLWS conditions will be likely. Outlook... Friday afternoon through Friday night...A line of convective showers or thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon. Rain showers and some restrictions will likely continue into the night. Saturday...Lake effect cloud cover keeps cig restrictions likely for all terminals but AVP. Early morning snow showers possible at ITH and BGM. Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR conditions expected with possible IFR valley fog at ELM in the early morning hours. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG/MWG AVIATION...MPK  328 FXUS62 KMHX 151815 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 215 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Above average uncertainty in the development of a coastal low offshore this weekend as a frontal system pushes through the area late Friday night into early Saturday. Gale Watch is in effect from Saturday Morning through late Saturday night for most of the coastal waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry with record heat possible through Friday. 2) Cold front moves through early Saturday, forming a low pressure system offshore. 3) Drastically cooler behind the front and low for Sunday, along with continued breezy northeasterly winds. Marine: Gale Watch in effect along with prolonged large seas this weekend into next week as offshore front stalls with long period fetch of northeasterly swell and increasing chances of low pressure development off the southeast coast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure builds in from the west through most of this week with sunny skies. Building hts as upper ridge strengthens sends temps soaring through the 80s and nearing 90 for some interior locales (record high climate section below). A dry back door front is taking its time moving into nrn parts of ENC later today keeping most locations in the warm sector today with some increasing cloud cover and slightly cooler temps for extreme northern locales. The front quickly retreats north by early Friday with another surge of swrly flow ahead of much stronger front. KEY MESSAGE 2... Uncertainty remains above average in regards to a coastal low forming along the cold front which will pass through the area late Friday night into early Saturday morning. While there are still three main camps as far as solutions go, confidence is trending up that a coastal low will form. The location and strength of that low remains in some question. Once the low forms out over the gulf stream there are three main steering paths that models are hinting at right now. The most likely scenario at this time is that the low forms and stays over the gulf stream picking up strengths as it does so but remains in a fairly constant longitudinal range offshore. Most EPS ensemble members and some deterministic models such as the ICON, CMC and others fall into this camp but there is still considerable spread in the location and intensity details. Other members along with the EC-AIFS model develop the low right along the coast and hold it there for a much more prolonged event. This scenario would likely have the highest impacts to coastal areas of eastern NC with several days of strong winds and high waves. Finally, the GFS and its ensemble members remain an outlier in either not developing a low at all or developing it much later and much further east than any of the other scenarios. This remains the least likely to occur at this time. Regardless of which scenario plays out, there is HIGH confidence of marine impacts, and potential for waves 7+ ft reaching portions of the OBX. Winds advisory potential exists for the OBX zones, as well as perhaps portions of the adjacent coastal mainland. Will have to watch for minor coastal flood concerns for srn portions of Pamlico Sound and the coastal areas of the OBX with the sustained NE flow. KEY MESSAGE 3...Coolest and driest airmass for the fall season thus far builds in behind the front Sat night and beyond with temps taking a nosedive with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s (inland) and 50s (beaches). However, depending how offshore the front makes it, could keep things a bit milder than fcst if some clouds advect in from offshore keeping the nighttime mins a bit warmer than advertised. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions continue at all locations this afternoon with light and variable winds and clear skies. Expect benign conditions to continue through much of the day. With a backdoor cool front draped across the northeastern portions of the area, there is some uncertainty with how far south the front will advance this evening. With it there is the chance for sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities with KPGV the most likely to see impacts from that. For now have 3SM in the TAFs with just a mention of 6SM at other sites except for KMRH. On Friday, conditions will return to VFR and by afternoon expect wind gust to pick up to around 15-20 kts out of the southwest. Outlook (Sat through Mon): Strong and slow moving cold front brings widespread light rain on Sat, with sub VFR likely behind the front later Sat with frontal inversion developing, along with gusty north winds through the day Sat. Clearing skies Sat night with winds tapering off as high pres attempts to build in for the latter half of the weekend into next week. && .MARINE... Latest obs show continuing SW winds 5-10 knots gusting 15-20 kts at most locales with seas mainly 2-3 ft. Backdoor front has made it through the Albemarle and into the Croatan/Roanoke Sounds. To the north of the bndry, nerly breezes expected though remaining light, and to the south, generally swrly to srly continued light flow. Outlook (Fri through Mon): A strong cold front has trended slower, now not expected to clear the waters until Sat, at which point it is likely to form a low pressure system offshore. Gale Watch is in effect beginning 12z Saturday for all waters except the southern rivers, although SCAs will be likely in these areas as well. Probabilities indicate high confidence in Gale Force Winds but likely not achieving storm force. Seas build quickly as well, with seas of 6-10+ ft appearing more likely through the weekend. Duration of gale force gusts is uncertain at this point and will likely bounce above and below the threshold well into next week, and there is potential for 6+ seas to linger as well. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 10/15 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 88/1935 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 89/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 86/1990 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 89/1985 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 90/1975 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 10/16 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1968 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 84/1917 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/2008 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1975 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-180-182-184-186-188-230- 231. && $$ DISCUSSION...RTE/RJ AVIATION...RTE/RJ MARINE...RTE/RJ  357 FXUS62 KFFC 151816 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 216 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions will prevail through the next 7 days with temperatures warming to well above normal today and tomorrow. - A mostly dry cold front moving through late Friday will bring crisp fall temperatures to the area to start off the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure and midlevel ridging covering the SE US keeps us warm and dry again this afternoon. Current temperature readings are in the 80s (upper 70s in the mountains) under mostly sunny skies. High temperatures may breach 90 in our far southern counties but temperatures will be similar to that of this time yesterday. A few of our climate sites could see some record high temperatures again today so stay tuned. Low potential for patchy fog in low-lying areas and valleys early Friday with any improvements expected just after sunrise. Though the main story for the short term will be a sharp cold front pushing through North and Central Georgia on Friday bringing highly anticipated fall temperatures to the region. High pressure will slide off the Mid-Atlantic as a deepening shortwave ushers in a mostly dry cold front by Friday afternoon for northwest GA. Latest hi-res guidance is not too thrilled about any precip accompanying this front, this will continue to message a very low possibility (less than 15% chance) of an isolated shower or some sprinkles Friday afternoon. It will be breezy though with gusts of 20-30 MPH during the afternoon and evening on Friday. Though the highest gusts look to be at the highest elevations in northeast GA. Hold onto your hats, temperatures fall into the 40s and 50s (perhaps upper 30s in the northeast) by Friday Night/Early Saturday. Though continued elevated winds during this period should inhibit any frost potential. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The axis of a deep mid-level trough and an associated sharp cold front will be quickly advancing through Georgia as the long term period begins, which will clear the forecast area to the southeast by mid-morning on Saturday. This cold front will be largely dry, with rain chances of 10% or less in portions of far north and east Georgia. There will be a strong pressure gradient in place behind the front and ahead of a surface high (1035+ mb) approaching from the Mid Mississippi River Valley. The pressure gradient will contribute to breezy northwesterly winds between 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph through much of the day on Saturday. A significantly cooler airmass will also set up over the region in the wake of the front. Low temperatures on Saturday morning are expected to be in the mid to upper 40s in areas north of I-85 and in the low to mid 50s to the south. As cooler air becomes more established, afternoon highs will range from near 60 in the far northern tier to the low 70s in south-central Georgia. Broad mid-level ridging will become established over the east CONUS Saturday night into Sunday as the aforementioned surface high moves east across the Appalachians. Strong radiational cooling under clear skies will lead to the coolest temperatures of the period early Sunday morning, with widespread 40s and even some mid to upper 30s in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia. As the high continues east of the Appalachians, a CAD wedge is anticipated to spread into north Georgia, keeping highs limited to the low 60s in portions of northeast Georgia compared to mid to upper 60s elsewhere across the region. Breezy easterly winds will also be present within this wedge. A gradual warming trend will begin to start next week as the surface high moves into the west Atlantic and the aforementioned ridge becomes centered over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast. This high pressure regime will continue to keep conditions dry into next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR at all sites. Light W wind at 3-6kts diminishes after 00z. Cold front approaches Friday, turning winds from W to WNW 7-10kts with gusts up to 20kts by 16-18z. Higher gusts possible after 18z. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence on all elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 63 85 52 65 / 0 0 0 10 Atlanta 65 84 52 64 / 0 10 10 0 Blairsville 60 79 43 59 / 0 10 10 0 Cartersville 62 84 48 64 / 0 10 10 0 Columbus 63 86 54 70 / 0 0 10 0 Gainesville 64 83 51 64 / 0 10 10 0 Macon 63 88 55 70 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 61 84 47 64 / 0 10 10 0 Peachtree City 62 85 49 66 / 0 10 10 0 Vidalia 65 87 63 69 / 0 0 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....King AVIATION...07  387 FXUS62 KILM 151817 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 217 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for 18Z TAF issuance. Issued Gale Watch for coastal waters for Sat through Sun night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs each day. 2) Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs each day. Latest surface analysis shows an elongated surface high that stretches across the Gulf Coast States to offshore of the Carolinas. This surface ridge is associated with an upper- level ridge that's nearly overhead this afternoon. Widespread subsidence keeps the forecast dry through Friday. 500 mb heights hang around 592-594 dam, which easily rank in climatological maximums in this area, per SPC Sounding Climatology for KCHS, KMHX, and KHAT. This means very unseasonably warm temperatures that look a lot more like mid- to-late June than mid-October. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to near 90 inland and mid 80s at the coast expected through Friday. Record-tying or record-breaking high temperatures are in play here. Please see Climate section below for more info. Deep upper trough nudges upper ridge off the coast on Fri with lowering heights, but warm SW flow will prevail and should help to keep very warm temps. KEY MESSAGE 2...Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend. A strong cold front is still slated to move through the area Fri night into early Sat, ushering in the coolest air of autumn thus far. Latest guidance is trending drier again with best chance of shwrs as the cold front passes through early Sat morning and mainly coastal or off the coast and then again as deep upper trough swings through near noon-time. The best energy would be to the north of our area. Deep northerly flow will develop as system shifts farther off the coast through Sat aftn. Dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 Fri evening will drop through Sat down into the 50s and even some 40s by late Sat. This drying trend will continue into Sat night with gusty northerly winds allowing dewpoints to bottom out early Sun in the 30s to around 40 close to the coast. Plenty of CAA will bring temps down quite a few degrees below normal Sat into Sun. Temps Sat aftn will resemble overnight temps just 12 hrs before, and the stiff northerly winds will make it feel even cooler. Expect overnight lows Sat night in the 40s inland to near 50 at the coast. Overall, fall-like weather will arrive Sat with a gradual warming through early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence in VFR through most of the TAF period. Confidence a bit higher but overall remaining low for any sub- VFR ground fog, but decided to include in the TAFs for a few hours right around daybreak. Increasing moisture and winds will creep into the forecast toward the end of this TAF period but mainly in the way of some developing cu, a few mid to high clouds, and SW winds up to 10 kts heading into Fri aftn. Extended Outlook...Northerly winds behind a cold front Friday night could gust over 30 knots into the day Saturday. Guidance suggesting low pressure will remain offshore and should keep any sub-VFR to the east away from TAF sites. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least daytime Friday with sfc high pressure offshore. Pattern starts to change late Friday, as gradient winds increase ahead of a cold front. Front moves through very early Sat morning, allowing the winds to quickly veer from SW to the N, gradually veering even more to the NNE through the day Saturday into Sunday. Seas will ramp up in increasing winds ahead of the front through late Fri and will peak late Saturday into Sunday, ranging from 4-8 ft over the coastal waters out to 20 nm, to 8-13 ft over the offshore waters out 60 nm. A Gale Watch has been issued for all of the local waters beginning Sat morning right around daybreak. Initially expect more in the way of Small Craft Advisory conditions with building seas and increasing winds, but expect solid Gale gusts and winds by Sat aftn. Should see gusts up to 35 to 40 kts late Sat through Sun with a strong pressure gradient persisting over the local waters between strong high pressure inland and low pressure well offshore. && .CLIMATE... Current forecast vs. records: Thursday, October 15: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 89F (88F in 1985) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 84F (85F in 2008) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 90F (89F in 2021 and 1985) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 90F (91F in 1919) Friday, October 16: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 86F (87F in 2021, 2018, and 1975) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 83F (88F in 1990) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 88F (91F in 2021) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 88F (92F in 1925) && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for AMZ250-252-254-256-280-284. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...MAS/RGZ  386 FXUS63 KMQT 151817 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 217 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainfall has returned and will continue through Friday as a deepening low pressure system works through the Great Lakes, bringing periods of rain and gusty N to NW winds across the area. - Hazardous marine weather is expected Friday. Northerly gales to 45 kts are expected, creating significant wave heights between 13-17 ft. - Dry air and increasing winds Saturday and Sunday could bring elevated fire weather concerns back across Upper Michigan over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 As a low digging down from Lake Winnipeg phases with another low lifting from the Central Plains this afternoon, radar imagery shows rainfall beginning to move into the far west by Ironwood as of the time of this writing. As the lows become a new, phased low over Lower MI and Lake Huron tonight, expect the rainfall to continue across the rest of the U.P. the rest of this afternoon through this evening, with generally light rainfall seen across the entire area over the next 12 hours. Within the synoptic phase of this system, expect a wetting rainfall across the area as guidance shows generally around half an inch of liquid falling. However, as robust CAA cycles down behind the phased low late tonight through Friday, expect lake enhanced rainfall to pick up over the north wind belts, eventually transitioning over to pure lake effect rain showers by Friday as the low pulls away and delta-Ts in the mid to upper teens keep the lake effect going until high pressure ridging returns Friday night through this weekend. Additional rainfall amounts from the lake enhanced and effect rain showers late tonight through Friday could bring an additional half inch or more of liquid to the north wind belts, with some of the higher elevations in the upslope areas potentially seeing a 15 to 40% chance of seeing an inch and a half of liquid between now and early Friday afternoon (according to the latest REFS run). With high pressure ridging returning for the weekend, expect the last of the lake effect rain showers to wrap up by Friday night. One last note on the lake effect showers: there could be a transition over to snowfall as the lake effect showers wrap up Friday night. While accumulations should practically be nothing, it is worth noting that these could be the first snowflakes of the season. With precipitation looking to stay away from the area this weekend through the first half of next week, the WAA seen with the high pressure ridging moving overhead could induce elevated fire weather conditions across the area this weekend, particularly over western Upper MI. This is due to very dry air coming in above the boundary layer (think 925mb level); with mostly sunny skies overhead, robust mixing during the daytime hours could bring RHs down into the 20 percents (lowest on Saturday) and southwesterly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph to the sfc (strongest on Sunday). In addition, poor RH recoveries are expected over the western U.P. Saturday night (<80% MaxRH). While the recent rainfall will help alleviate drought concerns, with plenty of dead leaves being added to the sfc and the drought conditions not expected to be completely removed after the rainfall this afternoon through Friday, we could see some critical fire weather concerns this weekend across the area. Therefore, as reminder, you should obey all burn bans in place if you are under one (which can be found at www.dnr.state.mi.us/burnpermits). In addition, avoid power equipment that creates sparks, and for smokers, please properly discard your cigarettes, cigars, etc. While the fire weather danger decreases once we enter the first half ofthe work week next week due to calmer winds, we could see some fairly dry sfc conditions still on Monday and Tuesday (MinRHs down to 30%). Rainfall may finally return by the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A storm system moving through the Great Lakes region will bring widespread rain and low level moisture to the U.P. this afternoon into Friday. Expect MVFR/VFR conditions to deteriorate as the afternoon progresses with widespread LIFR by this evening and VLIFR cigs at CMX. Winds shift north overnight which will help start to lift cigs with improvements to IFR by Friday morning. Widespread rain pushes out during the morning but lake effect rain showers will develop along with gusty northerly winds to 30kt. Conditions will be mainly MVFR by early Friday afternoon as drier low levels help to lift cigs. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Lake Superior: Light winds of 20 kts or less this afternoon into this evening rapidly increase to high-end northerly gales up to 45 kts Friday morning as robust CAA drops down across the area. Because of the strong winds and waves building up to 13 to 17 ft (highest over southeast lake), a Gale Warning has been issued for the entire lake Friday. In addition, while not expected, there is up to a 15% chance that a storm force gust or two could be seen in the southeastern lake near Marquette and at the tip of the Keweenaw Friday morning into mid Friday afternoon. As high pressure ridging returns Friday night, expect the winds to die down to 20 kts or less late. However, with the pressure gradient over the lake tightening and a LLJ coming in this weekend, expect winds to pick up from the southwest once again by Saturday to 20 to 30 kts, with the latest REFS showing a 30 to 60% chance for low-end gales over the west half of the lake on Saturday (highest chances along the Bayfield Peninsula followed by the Keweenaw). Gale chances could increase between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale on Sunday as the latest LREF shows up to a 40 to 80% chance of low end gales by then. As the pressure gradient weakens overhead and high pressure ridging builds once again over the Upper Great Lakes, expect the winds to die down to 20 kts or less by Monday morning, remaining that way through the first half of the work week next week. Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Light winds of 15 kts or less this afternoon into this evening give way to northerly gales up to 35 kts by late Friday morning as strong CAA drops down from Canada across the Upper Great Lakes. While this will immediately be followed up with high pressure ridging moving in Friday night (which will bring lighter winds of 15 kts or less back across the area), with a tightening pressure gradient and LLJ returning to the area for the weekend, expect winds to pick up from the southwest to 20 to 30 kts, with a 20 to 50% chance of gales up to 35 kts possible on Sunday according to the latest LREF. However, once the pressure gradient weakens early next week and high pressure ridging builds once again over the Upper Great Lakes, expect the winds to drop back down to 15 kts or less again by Monday morning, remaining that way through the first half of the work week next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday for LSZ162-240. Gale Warning from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ Friday for LSZ241-242-263. Gale Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for LSZ243-244-264. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Friday for LSZ245>248-265. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ249>251-266- 267.Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...NL MARINE...TAP  445 FXUS62 KGSP 151819 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 219 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... NBM trending slightly cooler for lows Friday night through Wednesday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Near record high temperatures continue through Friday before a strong cold front brings significantly cooler and well below normal temperatures for the weekend. Frost and freeze concerns return Saturday night and again Sunday night, mainly in the North Carolina mountains. A gradual warming trend can be expected next week. 2. The strong cold front will also bring gusty winds area-wide as well as northwest flow rain showers Friday afternoon into Saturday. Drier conditions should return by Saturday afternoon, lingering into at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Near record high temperatures continue through Friday before a strong cold front brings significantly cooler and well below normal temperatures for the weekend. Frost and freeze concerns return Saturday night and again Sunday night, mainly in the North Carolina mountains. A gradual warming trend can be expected next week. Upper ridging lingers over the Southeast through tonight as a positively tilted upper trough digs across the central United States. This will keep near record highs around today and well above normal lows around tonight. Although the ridge gets shunted eastward as the upper trough approaches the eastern United States on Friday, well above normal highs will return for one last day as warm advection develops ahead of an approaching cold front. KAVL is least likely to see near record highs return again on Friday but KGSP and KCLT may end up near (or may even tie or exceed) their record highs for Friday. The upper trough tracks over the region Friday night into late Saturday, dragging a potent cold front across the Carolinas and northeast Georgia Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This will be the strongest and most impressive airmass change we have seen so far this fall with highs on Saturday expected to be around 20-25 degrees cooler compared to highs on Friday. Highs over the weekend will end up around 10 degrees below normal. The main change from the previous forecast is that NBM is trending cooler for lows each night starting Friday night. Thus, frost and freeze concerns continue to increase over the weekend as clear skies return behind the front and as the pressure gradient relaxes (especially over the mountains). Most locations in the North Carolina mountains should see frost concerns return on both Saturday night and Sunday night, with a freeze looking more likely and more widespread Saturday night. For now freeze concerns Sunday night look to be confined to the higher elevations. Frost and freeze should not be of concern Friday night with cloud cover and gusty winds expected in association with the front (see Key Message 2 for more information). Another upper ridge will attempt to build back over the Southeast Sunday into early Monday but may get shunted just to the south and west the rest of the forecast period as an upper low develops off the East Coast. This will allow for a gradual warming trend through the workweek, with above normal highs returning by mid-week. Key message 2: The strong cold front will also bring gusty winds area-wide as well as northwest flow rain showers Friday afternoon into Saturday. Drier conditions should return by Saturday afternoon, lingering into at least the middle of next week. Breezy WSW/SW winds will develop ahead of the front on Friday, turning NW/N behind the front while becoming gusty Friday evening into Saturday. Gusts look to peak overnight Friday into early Saturday morning for most locations but areas along/near the I-77corridor should see gusts peak Saturday from mid-morning to early evening. With advisory level gusts looking to remain mostly confined to elevations of 4,000+ ft, a Wind Advisory continues to look unlikely as this time due to the isolated nature of >45 mph gusts. Gusts will gradually diminish across the mountains Saturday night as the pressure gradient relaxes. Gusts will remain elevated east of the mountains through at least Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. Gusts Sunday into Monday east of the mountains will be much lower compared to Friday/Saturday, ranging from 20-25 mph. The cold front will also bring northwest flow rain showers to mainly the NC/TN border Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. However, some of the 12Z CAMs and global models continue to show the potential for some showers surviving east of the mountains along the frontal boundary Friday evening into early Saturday. NBM agrees with this, depicting chance PoPs across the North Carolina Piedmont and foothills as well as the eastern South Carolina Upstate. With cold air advection chasing the moisture, all liquid precipitation looks most likely, although we cannot entirely rule out some brief snow flurries above 5,000 ft. Surface high pressure builds into the region behind the departing cold front by Saturday afternoon, lingering through at least the middle of next week. This will allow for the return of dry conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the 18Z TAF period outside of another round of mountain valley fog overnight into daybreak Friday. Since KAVL saw restrictions this morning, went with a TEMPO for IFR restrictions from 08Z-12Z. Lower restrictions are possible but confidence is too low at this time to go more pessimistic. Winds will mainly have a southerly component (going calm to light and VRB at times) across the terminals through late tonight before winds toggle more WSW/SW ahead of a strong cold front closer to daybreak Friday. Wind speeds will gradually increase throughout Friday with SW gusts developing by Friday afternoon. Outlook: Winds turn NW/N while becoming gusty behind a strong cold front Friday evening into Friday night, preventing fog development. Gusts will remain elevated through Saturday before gradually diminishing in the mountains Saturday night. Low-end gusts will linger through at least Sunday east of the mountains. The front will also bring NW flow rain showers to the NC/TN border Friday afternoon into at least late Saturday morning. Some showers may break containment of the mountains but confidence remains low on whether any of these would directly impact terminals east of the mountains. Drier conditions return Saturday afternoon and linger through the middle of next week. The mountain valley fog and/or low stratus potential returns starting Saturday night. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 10-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1897 52 2002 60 2017 27 1907 1970 1928 KCLT 88 1985 53 2009 66 1985 30 2006 KGSP 86 1985 53 2002 65 1985 31 1907 1941 1970 RECORDS FOR 10-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 1897 49 1954 63 1928 29 1939 KCLT 87 1925 58 1937 68 1947 35 19391925 KGSP 85 1935 53 1937 67 1925 32 1907 1911 1892 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ AR  534 FXUS61 KBUF 151821 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 221 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain tonight through Friday, along with gusty winds. 2) Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain tonight through Friday, along with gusty winds. Sharp mid level trough will advance into the Great Lakes tonight through Friday. Surface low pressure will strengthen across the Great lakes tonight and move into southern Ontario by Friday morning, reaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by Friday afternoon. The expected track of the surface low will allow the warm sector to build into the lower Great Lakes. A period of strong warm advection and moisture transport, enhanced by a 50+ knot low level jet, will arrive tonight and support an initial wave of rainfall. This rain will arrive in western New York by around midnight, then spread quickly northeast overnight. Additional periods of rain will continue Friday through Friday evening as the trailing cold front moves southeast across the region, supported by mid level height falls and right entrance region jet dynamics. Marginal instability in the warm sector may support a few embedded thunderstorms as well late tonight through Friday. Rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area, generally ranging from 0.25" to 1.0". Terrain will play an important role given the strong boundary layer flow, with downslope areas of the Lake Erie shore and Genesee Valley likely on the low end of the range, while higher terrain is more likely to be on the higher end of the range from upslope enhancement. There may be a few small areas that exceed 1.0" if embedded convection develops. It will become quite windy late tonight through Friday. A 50+ knot low level jet will propagate across the eastern Great Lakes late tonight through Friday morning. Gusts will increase into the 25-35 mph range areawide, with gusts possibly reaching or exceeding 40 mph in downslope areas along the Lake Erie shore and north of the Tug Hill Plateau briefly. Boundary layer flow will quickly swing around to the southwest Friday morning through mid afternoon, with gusts still in the 25-35 mph range in most areas, and up to 45 mph northeast of Lake Erie across the Niagara Frontier. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. Strong cold advection will develop Friday night in the wake of the departing low, with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the -5C to -8C range by Saturday morning. The cold air aloft will support increasing lake induced instability overnight with a brief lake response, but short NNW fetch and a rapidly drying synoptic scale airmass will keep lake effect muted and brief. Lake effect and upslope rain showers will develop southeast of the lakes Friday night, with a few wet snowflakes possibly mixing in very late Friday night through early Saturday morning before the lake effect showers quickly end by late morning. The best chance of a few snowflakes will be across higher terrain, but no accumulation is expected. The coldest airmass of the fall season so far will arrive for Saturday, with highs only in the 40s areawide, and even upper 30s across the highest terrain despite some afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will drop back into the low to mid 30s Saturday night on the lake plains, with some 20s likely across the Southern Tier valleys and North Country. The cold air will quickly depart, with temperatures back above average by early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Most of our forecast area has improved to VFR, however the last of the MVFR CIGS is hanging on early this afternoon across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG), with this area forecast to scatter out by mid afternoon or so per latest visible satellite imagery showing low level cloud footprint continuing to "shrink" in size as drier air off the deck mixes down to the surface. VFR flight conditions are then expected to continue areawide for the remainder of the afternoon, with thickening/lowering mid and upper level decks across western NY late today into the early evening. Flight conditions will deteriorate fairly rapidly from southwest to northeast through the first half of tonight with a few showers possible. Increasing moisture/forcing along the leading edge of a strong 50-60 knot LLJ within a strong WAA regime will bring a period of steadier rain/isolated thunder across the area from southwest to northeast through the second half of tonight, with CIGS deteriorating to MVFR/IFR areawide. Our area will briefly become entrenched in the warm sector Friday morning as an area of low pressure passes by just to our north. This will allow steadier rain to taper off to more in the way of showery precipitation with MVFR/IFR CIGS hanging on through the end of the 18Z TAF period. Cold front will press east across the area later Friday morning through the afternoon bringing the next period of steadier showers along and ahead of the boundary, with mainly MVFR CIGS persisting through Friday afternoon. Potential for a brief period of LLWS still looks possible late tonight into early Friday as the strong 50-60 knot LLJ moves overhead. However, stronger winds off the deck are expected to start mixing down to the surface fairly soon after arrival, thus window for any LLWS will likely be rather short-lived to nil. Expect increasing surface wind gusts late tonight through Friday, with gusts of 20-30 knots areawide, and up to 35 knots northeast of the lakes later Friday morning through the afternoon. A few gusts to near 40 knots cannot be ruled out across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) from late morning through mid afternoon. Outlook... Friday night...Mainly MVFR CIGS with scattered showers, mixing with a few wet flakes late. Saturday...Areas of MVFR CIGS with scattered rain/wet snow showers early, improving to VFR. Sunday through Tuesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Northeast winds around 15 knots will continue to produce choppy conditions on both lakes this afternoon, but winds and waves will remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Low pressure will track across the southern Great Lakes tonight, reaching southern Ontario Friday morning. This low will continue to deepen as it moves northeast across the Saint Lawrence Valley Friday, reaching the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday. Southerly winds will increase overnight tonight ahead of the system, then quickly veer to the southwest and west Friday as the low passes by just north of the lower Great Lakes, followed by gusty north-northwest winds Friday night through Saturday morning. Sustained winds during this timeframe will average 20-30 knots, producing high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes. Some periodic gusts to near gale force are possible. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ045. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...JM MARINE...TMA  570 FXUS61 KGYX 151821 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 221 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No notable changes to the forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Low pressure crosses on Friday, bringing beneficial rainfall to the area. 2. A seasonably cold airmass pushes in behind the system to start the weekend, with wintry conditions across the higher terrain. 3. Mild and dry conditions look to persist from Sunday through much of next week as high pressure dominates over the Northeast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure passes through this evening, and quickly moves off to the east through the overnight hours. Meanwhile, low pressure tracks eastward through the Great Lakes overnight tonight, with rain pushing into western New Hampshire by sunrise tomorrow. Periods of rain and showers move through during the morning, and become more showery by the afternoon across much of New Hampshire and western Maine. Low pressure tracks near the Canadian border through the day, with a cold front crossing through late in the day and through the evening hours. Some additional pop up showers or even a few thunderstorms will be possible across southern New Hampshire where a few peaks of sun help temps push into the mid 60s during the day. Overall around a half inch of rainfall is expected, with a little less across southern areas, and a little more to the north. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The low pressure system deepens across the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday, while high pressure is building westward into New England. This sets up a gusty northwesterly wind, and transports a Canadian airmass that's cold for mid October. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected through the daytime, while highs range from the 30s across the north, to only near 50 along the coast. Across the higher terrain, wintertime conditions are expected from Friday night through Sunday morning. Accumulating snowfall across the upslope terrain, temperatures in the teens, and wind chills well below zero are all expected. Wind gusts over 100 mph are expected on Mount Washington on Saturday. Any hikers or those above 2500ft should plan for wintertime conditions this weekend. Scattered snow showers across the mountains on Saturday morning gradually decrease in coverage through the day, but a few flurries are likely to drift downwind of the mountains through the day while gradually drying up. Saturday night will then by far be the coldest night of the season across the area. Widespread lows in the 20s and breezy conditions are in store for Saturday night. Lows below freezing are expected to the coastline across the region as well. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure crests over the region on Sunday and looks to stay nosed in through at least the daylight hours of next Thursday. This will bring an extended period of mild daytime temperatures, and likely some pretty chilly nights due to radiational cooling, as well as dry weather. Sunday will be the transition day with high temperatures in the low to mid-50s with mostly clear skies, but after a raw Saturday this will probably feel comfortable. Afterwards, most days should feature abundant sunshine with high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s. Periods of clouds are possible with subtle troughing aloft, but the midlevel airmass looks very dry which will preclude any threat for precipitation. Low temperatures look to be generally around normal being in the upper 20s to mid-30s north to south, but of course any night where strong radiational cooling takes place, can end up quite cold. Looking at long range ensembles 850-700 mb temperatures stay right around the 0 C mark through this stretch so certainly some cold nights could come to fruition, but nothing crazy. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR lowers to MVFR and then IFR from west to east late tonight and tomorrow morning. Periods of rain bring mainly IFR through the daytime, with a few breaks of MVFR possible across southern New Hampshire tomorrow afternoon. Southerly wind gusts to around 25kt are likely at coastal terminals on Friday. Conditions then improve tomorrow night with VFR returning to most terminals, and prevailing through Saturday night. HIE likely holds onto MVFR ceilings through at least Saturday afternoon. Northwesterly wind gusts to around 25- 30 kt are likely at most terminals on Saturday. Winds then gradually ease Saturday night. Outlook: Sunday-Tuesday... VFR prevails. && .MARINE... Southerly winds freshen ahead of an approaching cold front tonight, with SCA conditions across the waters by mid morning on Friday. The cold front crosses through tomorrow night, with SCA conditions continuing in northwesterly winds late Friday night through Saturday evening. Winds gradually ease Saturday night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sunday through much of next week as high pressure settles over the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ150>154. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baron/Clair  486 FXUS65 KFGZ 151820 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1120 AM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry, cool, and windy weather will continue through Friday. Tropical moisture may return this weekend and into next week, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Friday - strong high pressure aloft will develop over the Great Basin while a low forms off the northern Baja coast. The result will be rapidly increasing easterly flow aloft over our region. There will also be tighter easterly surface pressure gradients as a surface high plunges down through the Rockies and plains. Expect northeast to east winds to increase through this period, especially along/west of terrain features. The period of strongest winds currently looks like later tonight through Friday morning, including areas around Flagstaff, Sedona, and the I-17 corridor from Flagstaff down to the Hwy 179 interchange. Gusts in these areas may reach 40-50 mph, with most other areas staying in the 30-40 mph range. Otherwise, expect dry and continued cooler than normal conditions through Friday. Saturday and Sunday - Some moisture should move back into the region from the southeast by the weekend, and a low (10-25%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is included in our latest forecasts. Rain chances may increase as we get closer, depending on the track of the weak upper low as it ejects northeastward late in the weekend and possible interaction with deeper moisture associated with tropical systems far to the south off the coast of Mexico. While most of the ensemble guidance continues to keep the deeper moisture to our east through Sunday, a small percentage (including latest operational EC) bring it farther west, so this will be something to monitor. Daytime highs look to stay below normal through the weekend. Monday through Wednesday - ensemble forecasts show deeper low pressure diving south along the West Coast, settling over or just west of central/southern California by Tuesday or Wednesday. This will bring the potential for deeper moisture from the south to interact with the low over our region, and our rain chances have increased to 30-50% Tue/Wed. Daytime temperatures will remain cooler than average for mid October. && .AVIATION...Thursday 15/18Z through Friday 16/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds are northeast to east winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts through the period. Winds remain gusty overnight into tomorrow morning, especially along/west of terrain features. OUTLOOK...Friday 16/18Z through Sunday 18/18Z...VFR conditions expected. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible across much of northern AZ on Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Winds are easterly through the period, initially between 15-25 kts with localized gusts 30-40 kts on Friday, becoming lighter at 10-20 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Cool and windy conditions throughout the period. Winds are northeast through east 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Thursday through Friday, remaining elevated overnight. Strongest winds will be along/downwind of higher terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino Counties and north of the White Mountains. Min RH is 30-60% on Thursday then 20-40% on Friday. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. Saturday through Monday...Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain for each day. Winds are 10-20 mph from the east on Saturday, light and variable on Sunday, then southwest 5-15 mph on Monday. Daytime temperatures remain 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  666 FXUS65 KSLC 151822 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1222 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... - A few showers will linger over portions of eastern Utah tonight before dry conditions develop areawide Thursday through the weekend with a gradual warming trend in temperatures. - Confidence remains relatively high that a more active pattern will return next week, though uncertainty is higher than usual in the timing or details of any systems that may move through. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... The slow moving low pressure system that has been impacting Utah and southwest Wyoming the past few days has moved into Colorado this evening. Most areas remain dry behind it, but some showers persist over eastern Utah on the back side of the system. As the low continues east overnight, the remaining precipitation will diminish. Temperatures stayed on the cold side today with maxes running 10-15F above seasonal normals. with a bit of a Rex Block pattern developing over the Pacific coast over the next few days, conditions will stay dry through the weekend with highs warming to near seasonal normals for Saturday and Sunday. Most guidance indicates the Rex Block breaking by Saturday as a Pacific Northwest trough moves it out of the way before tracking along the US/Canada border. The absence of the ridge would open up the West to a more active storm track next week. However, there remains considerable spread as to the timing and track of these systems. The most popular solution brings a Pacific system across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing primarily rain due to the warm nature of the system. A minority of guidance, however, (including the latest deterministic ECMWF) keep the low off the California coast through midweek, allowing dry conditions to persist longer. Models tend to struggle with closed low features, so hopefully more confidence in the details comes in future runs. && && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period with clear skies. Northwesterly winds will switch to diurnally-driven southeasterlies around 02Z this evening. Northwesterly flow will return around 19Z tomorrow. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Gusty easterly winds will continue at KEVW and persist through the day, while winds at the remainder of northern TAF sites remain light northerly. Gusty northeast winds will develop at KCDC and KSGU by early afternoon into the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1143 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026... High pressure continues to build in the wake of the departing low pressure system keeping conditions moderated and calm. While the airmass remains cool and stable, clear skies will enable temperatures to continue to warm into next week, closer to near-normals for this time of year. Nearly all of UT is expected to remain dry through early next week ahead of an incoming system which is forecast to usher in more precipitation around midweek. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for UTZ116-118-119. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Tekoe FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  728 FXUS65 KSLC 151823 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1223 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A drying trend develops today, persisting through the weekend. - Freezing temperatures look to develop across locations such as Juab / Millard counties, Sanpete Valley, and higher elevation valley locations across southwest Utah Friday morning and potentially Saturday morning. - Another system is expected to move into the Great Basin by midweek next week, ushering in the return of precipitation to much of Utah and southwest WY. && .DISCUSSION... A mid-level lobe of vorticity will continue to break off of the departing low, spinning up another weak mid-level low across the southwest today. This won't surmount to much, other than the development of northeasterly winds across the forecast area. over the next couple days, this feature will continue to weaken and phase into the mean flow as westerly flow aloft establishes across the area. With ample clearing and height rises occurring across northern and central UT tonight, freezing temperatures appear likely across the Sevier and Sanpete valleys, though higher elevation areas within Juab/Millard counties and southwestern UT may see brief dips below freezing as well. Light surface winds beneath establishing high pressure will set the stage for a more robust radiational cooling setup tonight across the specified locations. With westerly flow aloft, dry and calm conditions are forecast to persist into early next week. Winds will be light and variable beneath clear skies, with a slight warming trend to near-normal temperatures statewide. Confidence continues to increase regarding a system impacting the forecast area mid-week next week. Guidance is generally trending more widespread with precipitation, though forcing remains modest among most ensemble members as the trough looks to amplify further east. Roughly ~30% of guidance has this occurring over UT, resulting in heavier mountain snowfall totals and lower elevation rainfall totals, as well as bringing snow levels down markedly compared to other suites. As the last few forecasts have specified, this forecast will continue to change substantially over the coming days. && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period with clear skies. Northwesterly winds will switch to diurnally-driven southeasterlies around 02Z this evening. Northwesterly flow will return around 19Z tomorrow. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Gusty easterly winds will continue at KEVW and persist through the day, while winds at the remainder of northern TAF sites remain light northerly. Gusty northeast winds will develop at KCDC and KSGU by early afternoon into the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure continues to build in the wake of the departing low pressure system keeping conditions moderated and calm. While the airmass remains cool and stable, clear skies will enable temperatures to continue to warm into next week, closer to near-normals for this time of year. Nearly all of UT is expected to remain dry through early next week ahead of an incoming system which is forecast to usher in more precipitation around midweek. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for UTZ116-118-119. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Worster AVIATION...Tekoe FIRE WEATHER...Worster For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  761 FXUS62 KTBW 151823 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 223 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Moisture increases late in the week leading to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. - Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters expected over the weekend and continuing into next week. - Cool down with below average temperatures expected Sunday and into most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure remains in control this afternoon keeping conditions warm and mostly dry, though moisture has begun to creep up over SWFL. The increase in moisture combined with daytime heating will likely be enough to generate a some shower activity this afternoon with the possibility of some isolated thunderstorms. Convection will likely remain south of Tampa Bay as dry air remains to the north. A pattern change is coming as a cold front makes its way towards the Southeast from the Mississippi River Valley. The high pressure currently running the show, will push east over the Atlantic tomorrow, shifting the flow more east, southeast. This will also allow moisture to increase for most of the area, leading to scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. The cold front will finally arrive over the area Saturday bringing scattered to numerous showers and storms for the area. High pressure quickly builds back in as the front exits to the south. The tight pressure gradient will lead to strong north to northeasterly winds over the area. The elevated winds will stick around through the weekend and into next week. Temperatures are also expected to cool down following the frontal passage. With daytime highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s expected well into next week. Humidity will also be lower as dry air filters in. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Mostly VFR conditions prevail through the period. Cloud coverage is beginning to fill in , especially over SWFL where moisture is more abundant. A few showers are expected to develop this afternoon and could drift near some terminals, particularly SRQ and southern sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light easterly flow continues today as high pressure remains over the area. Conditions begin to change tomorrow as a cold front approaches the waters Friday afternoon, moving through Saturday. Storm chances increases Friday and Saturday with the frontal passage. However, the bigger marine concern will be following the front as high pressure builds back in. The pressure gradient will tighten, causing north to northeast winds to increase to advisory levels by Saturday, lasting into next week. There is also a potential for gale force winds, 34kts or above, especially Sunday and Monday. Seas will have the potential to reach over 10ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal over the next several days as moisture increases over the area as a cold front approaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 88 75 81 / 10 30 40 50 FMY 76 90 76 84 / 30 50 40 70 GIF 74 91 74 83 / 10 60 40 50 SRQ 74 88 75 82 / 20 30 50 60 BKV 72 91 72 79 / 0 30 30 30 SPG 76 87 76 81 / 10 30 50 60 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce  123 FXUS64 KMAF 151828 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are expected through late Friday morning across much of west Texas. - A cold front today through Friday morning brings much cooler temperatures to the region this weekend. - Breezy northeasterly winds behind the cold front will occur tonight through Friday. High gap winds are expected in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Area radars show round #2 of convection has ended for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/CAMs suggesting round #3 commencing around 20Z or so. KMAF radar bias has increased from below 1 to 1.21 over the past few hours, suggesting the airmass has transitioned from convective to tropical. This is further evidenced by heavy rainfall reported over the past few hours. Supporting this, the KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a PWAT of 1.68". The 100th percentile is 1.43", and the (now old) record is 1.47". Latest mesoanalysis shows a prefrontal trough moving through the area, with a cold front following this evening. W/drier air advecting in behind these features, best chances for convection tonight will be south of I-20. With the airmass having gone tropical, the current flood watch looks on track. Latest NBM/MOS suggest wind advisories are warranted over the higher terrain as the front moves south, and the high wind warning has been shortened temporally to end Friday evening. CAA behind the front will usher in the coolest temperatures yet this fall, with overnight minimums coming in ~ 5 F or less above climatology. Friday, showers are possible along and south of I-10, but will quickly diminish to the southwest as the front continues pushing south. CAA will be in full force, with highs a good ~ 15-20 F below normal, keeping all locations in the 50s and 60s. Friday night, as post-frontal gradients/winds relax under clearing skies, lows will drop a good 10 F or so from tonight, putting all locations in the 30s and 40s. The highest elevations of the Davis Mountains may even see a light freeze. This front will definitely brrrring in Fall proper. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Cooler temperatures commence this weekend as surface high pressure centered over the Southern Great Plains reinforces cooler air behind the cold front. This yields afternoon highs in the upper 50s for most, with low 60s expected in a few locations. From Sunday onward, return flow and mostly sunny skies bring a warming trend. At this time, highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to low 80s by the middle of next week. Low chances of rain (10-30%) return to the western half of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as shortwave impulses move through southwest flow aloft. Greening && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 KMAF, KFST, and, to a lesser extent, KPEQ will bounce in and out of MVFR cigs this afternoon and overnight as bouts of convection move through the area as a cold front pushes south. KINK/KCNM/KHOB should remaIN VFR. Expect gusty winds after fropa through the end of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 52 60 39 60 / 40 0 0 0 Carlsbad 54 64 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 52 59 43 59 / 100 50 0 0 Fort Stockton 49 58 39 57 / 90 20 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 47 54 38 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs48 59 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 41 51 34 54 / 80 40 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 52 59 40 58 / 30 0 0 0 Odessa 52 59 40 58 / 30 0 0 0 Wink 54 62 40 59 / 20 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning from 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Flood Watch through Friday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to midnight MDT Friday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Friday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...99  333 FXUS62 KRAH 151831 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 230 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No appreciable changes were made with the afternoon forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 227 PM Thursday... 1) Near-record heat will continue through Friday. 2) A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Fri evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. && .DISCUSSION... As of 227 PM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Near-record heat will continue through Friday. While a front across Virginia has dipped into north-eastern North Carolina, temperatures have still climbed into the 80s near the VA/NC border, with mid to upper 80s elsewhere across the area. As of 1pm, all three climate sites are within 5 degrees of their respective daily record highs, and records could be tied or surpassed over the next couple of hours. The front should retreat back into Virginia overnight, allowing for uniform low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. A strong southwest wind on Friday will result in gusts between 20-30 mph, and will give one more chance to reach record highs between 85 and 90 degrees. While clouds will slowly increase during the afternoon, it appears that any rain should hold off until after sunset. KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Fri evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. A strong cold frontal passage will bring a drastic pattern-shift this weekend and bring the greatest impact to the sensible weather, especially Fri night into Sat. This front will be driven by a deep surface low < 1000 mb racing across the Northeast Fri evening and equally, if not more so, anomalous surface high pressure exceeding 1035 mb diving into the southern Plains and elongating up into the Mid-MS Valley Sat afternoon. Hi-res guidance continues to support a high-PoP/low-QPF signal as anafrontal showers/sprinkles appears likely, especially across the northern Piedmont into the northern Coastal Plain where strong FGEN through the lower/mid-lvls overlaps intense H5 height falls (> 100m falls in 12hrs) and DPVA. This pattern will also support the development of an narrow cold- frontal rainband (NCFR), which could result in a period of enhanced winds and wind gusts along and immediately behind the NCFR with rapid pressures rises in its wake. Momentum transfer at the top of the mixed layer in point soundings suggest gusts may reach in excess of 40 mph with the NCFR passage. NWP guidance continues to flip-flop on whether the basal portion of the strong mid/upper level trough will pinch off and become a closed/cutoff low and its proximity to the Carolina coast. AIGFS deterministic runs line up with the AIFS ensemble solutions and favor a farther south and east development of the closed/cutoff low between the Southeast coast, Bahamas, and Bermuda (physics-based guidance favor its development immediately along the Carolina coast), which would favor less rain chances and cooler overnight and early morning lows Sun through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 227 PM Thursday... VFR conditions expected for most sites through the period. Mostly clear skies this afternoon into evening then some lower cigs could flirt with the sites from the north and east for part of Friday morning (except for KFAY). KRWI has the greatest chance of this with IFR cigs possible and perhaps some MVFR vsbys. Winds generally light VRB this afternoon and calm this evening. Winds should shift out of the SW and increase in magnitude Fridaymorning into afternoon to around 9-12 kts with possible gusts of 18-20 kts. Some scattered alto coverage could develop as well during the day (staying mostly clear for KFAY). Outlook: Rain will be possible Friday night and Saturday at INT/GSO, with rain likely at RDU/RWI/FAY. It appears likely that ceilings and visibility will remain VFR, but the wind will veer to the north Friday night with gusts as high as 25 kt, and widespread N gusts up to 30 kt are forecast on Saturday. N gusts between 15-25 kt should continue on Sunday before dropping under 20 kt on Monday and Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 87/1985 KRDU: 88/1985 KFAY: 91/1931 October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925 Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 63/1985 KRDU: 66/1942 KFAY: 67/1928 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/14/2026 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/AS AVIATION...Baker/Green  314 FXUS62 KTAE 151830 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 230 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Another round of fog is likely again Friday morning across much of the area. - A strong cold front Friday night will lead to gusty winds this weekend to 35 mph over land and 35 to 40 knots over coastal waters that may impact hurricane recovery efforts, including compromised trees leading to power outages, drones, improperly secured roof tarps, loose outdoor items, and hazardous boating. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 through Friday, turning sharply cooler this weekend with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Generally warm and dry conditions across the area will remain constant tomorrow, with only a very minimal chance of rain along the coast of Apalachee Bay. High pressure will remain across the region through Friday ahead of the front moving in later this weekend. Tonight, minimal winds due to a very weak pressure gradient in tandem with prefrontal moisture will create ideal conditions for patchy fog to form tomorrow morning across the area. As the day progresses, the high pressure system will bring unseasonably warm temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front sweeps through the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. It'll be a mostly dry frontal passage with the highest chance for rain across the southeastern Florida Big Bend Friday night. However, you'll know the front is through when winds turn more northerly and increase substantially with widespread wind gusts of 30+ mph expected early Saturday morning. Breezy to gusty conditions continue throughout Saturday and linger into Saturday night before the pressure gradient relaxes enough to allow winds to calm some. Even then, winds are forecast to remain elevated into early next week. As mentioned in the previous AFD, this type of wind could hamper hurricane recovery efforts across the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama and a Wind Advisory for these areas will be considered, even if it may not explicitly hit criteria. One good thing about this front is it will bring a true taste of autumn with highs in the lower to middle 70s and lows in the middle 40s to middle 50s over the weekend. Temperatures moderate some early next week, but still remain near to slightly below normal for this time of year. One thing we'll also monitor is the potential for a coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic states next week. While it won't directly impact our area, it has the potential to either keep us drier and sunnier (track closer to the Mid-Atlantic) or keep us cloudy, cooler and misty (track farther off the coast). So that'll be something to monitor as we go through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Prevailing VFR conds thru much of the period with lgt/vrb winds and some fair-wx aftn cumulus. Some patchy fog attempts to develop invof ECP/VLD early tmrw morning, so TEMPO groups are in place to acct. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Tranquil boating conditions continue Friday with light easterly breezes in the morning turning more westerly later in the day. That changes in a hurry as a powerful cold front sweeps across the northern Gulf Friday night into Saturday. Winds are forecast to increase substantially out of the northwest to north following the frontal passage. As a result, have gone ahead and issued a Gale Watch for all of our waters Friday night through at least Saturday night. Winds are forecast to remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Another dry day is in the forecast again Friday ahead of a cold front. MinRh will generally be between 40 to 50 percent Friday afternoon. Transport winds will generally be out of the west ahead of a cold front. This cold front will bring a low, 20 to 30 percent, chance of an isolated shower or two as the front sweeps through, especially along the immediate coast and the southeastern Florida Big Bend. Winds quickly become northerly following the front late Friday night into Saturday with gusts generally between 30 to 40 mph. MinRH is forecast to drop to between 30 to 40 percent Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Patchy dense fog is possible from early to mid-morning again Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Several sites, including a number of them along the Choctawhatchee and Ochlockonee Rivers, remain in Action stage this afternoon but are slowly falling. An isolated shower or two is possible across the southeastern Florida Big Bend, but they shouldn't cause any flooding concerns. The rest of the forecast period is looking dry. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 89 61 72 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 68 85 60 72 / 0 10 10 0 Dothan 64 86 55 70 / 0 0 10 0 Albany 63 87 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 65 88 61 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 68 89 66 75 / 0 10 20 10 Apalachicola 69 84 64 72 / 0 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for GMZ730-755-765-775. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ735. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ751- 752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Reese  340 FXUS63 KABR 151830 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 130 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph will continue this evening across central and north central South Dakota behind a cold front. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all counties west of Brown and Spink through early Friday morning. - Another round of light rain moves into eastern SD and west central MN this evening before exiting late tonight. Up to a tenth of an inch of rain is possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gusty northwest winds continue to spread east today behind the sfc cold front and with the upper trough. There have been a couple gusts over 58 mph along and west of the Missouri in the clear air, better mixing environment, but nothing widespread enough to merit an upgrade. As the upper trough digs in more this evening, the 80 to 90kt jet will help keep the winds gusty overnight. Ensemble 90th percentiles keep gusts to 50 mph over the Coteau and the Sisseton Hills early Friday morning. Current NBM holds those gusts to around 40 mph, so did not expand the wind headlines farther east for now. Another area of low clouds is wrapping around the low in northern ND and pushing south into north central SD this afternoon. These clouds are expected to expand and stick around most of the night. Some additional sprinkles or light rain is possible in this wraparound/deformation zone. Between the persistent winds and the clouds, temperatures should not drop below freezing. Blended in hi- res model guidance to push temps up a few degrees. Have lows in the 30s for tonight with Corson county approaching freezing as sfc high pressure builds in from the west. Given the winds, decided not to go with any frost headlines for tonight. However, Friday night/Saturday morning will need another look for frost/freeze headlines. There are still model differences in timing of a building ridge aloft and exit of the sfc high that will influence Friday night's lows. Temperatures warm above normal starting Saturday with the ridge aloft. Dry and warm conditions are then expected through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR cigs are expected to move back in through the afternoon on northwest flow. Northwest winds will remain elevated through the night with gusts of 30 to 40 kts. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>005- 009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...20  226 FXUS63 KILX 151829 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 129 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainfall amounts are likely to be around a half inch for most areas, but localized swaths of 1 to 3 inches are still possible this afternoon and evening. - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening near and south of I-72. SPC has a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe weather, including a 15 percent damaging wind risk and 2 percent tornado risk, for areas near and south of I-70. - Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are likely tonight through tomorrow afternoon. The strongest winds will be west of I-57. - Much cooler weather will settle into the region tomorrow through the weekend potentially resulting in areas of frost both Saturday and Sunday mornings. There is a 40-60% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees north of the IL River Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The warm front pushed back north this morning bringing a round of rain across central IL. PWATs are expected to be around 1.8-2.1 inches this afternoon, which is very high for the month of October. The 12z upper air sounding showed 1.77 inches for PWAT. The average PWAT for October 15th is around 0.6-0.7 inches based off the SPC sounding climatology. The good news is that our soils can handle this rain since we have been so dry lately. The rain is welcomed. The LPMM is showing some localized swaths of 1-3 inches of rain through tonight near the I-70 corridor on top of what has already fallen this morning. The rest of Central IL could see 0.25-0.75" of rain during this time. Some areas under the heaviest rain has already achieved the 1-3" amounts. When the cold front advances east this afternoon/evening, a severe weather risk and additional rain will be accompanying it. With the 1630z update, SPC has introduced a slight risk (level 2 of 5) to I- 70 and south and a marginal risk still from about a Pittsfield to Gibson City line and south. The environment looks supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms if we can recover fully from the morning stratus/fog and morning rainfall. Storm type looks like it may begin as discrete, supercells that will evolve into a multicell/QLCS mode as it exits to the east. Damaging winds and a tornado or two are the main hazards. Storms will move through from ~20z-02z. After these storms exit to the east, additional light showers could occur through Friday afternoon. After Friday afternoon, the forecast is expected to be dry through the extended period. The cold front pushes off to our east early tomorrow morning. The pressure gradient with the passing low pressure system will tighten behind the cold front. Wind gusts around 30 mph will start late this evening and will continue for most of the day tomorrow. Wind gusts tomorrow will be around 30-40 mph, with the strongest winds possible west of I-57. The HREF shows a 40-60% chance of gusts greater than 35 mph west of I-57 in the morning. Winds should relax to closer to 15-20 mph by sunset tomorrow. Cooler, more fall like temperatures will be ushered in behind the front for a few days. Highs tomorrow and Saturday will be in the 50s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. There is a chance for some patchy frost to develop in western IL Saturday morning, depending if the wind will drop to near calm. Saturday morning may also have a risk for a light freeze in some locations north of the IL River Valley, especially in low spots. The HREF is showing a 40-60% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees north of the IL River Valley. Patchy frost is possible again Sunday morning. Beyond Sunday morning, temperatures will begin to warm back up to low 70s for highs on Monday, thento upper 70s by Wednesday next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 18z TAFs are long. There is a lot going on. Ceilings will mainly be IFR/MVFR with brief windows with VFR conditions. The biggest VFR window is tomorrow morning for a few hours before the backside of the low pivots into the area. There are showers and thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon, continuing into the evening. This activity is indicated with PROB30/TEMPO groups for 20z-02z across the sites. Winds out of the southeast will become northerly overnight. Wind speeds will pick up over the period, with gusts around 30 knots expected after 06z tonight, lasting through the remainder of the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Copple DISCUSSION...Copple AVIATION...Copple  323 FXUS63 KMPX 151830 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 130 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain today favoring southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. - Cooler temperatures continue through Saturday morning when a widespread frost/freeze is expected. - Temperatures turn back to above normal next week with few chances for additional rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today... Our two upper level waves continue to approach this morning and the combined synoptic support from these waves will be a part of the widespread rain chances today. At the surface, a low will travel across the Great Plains to the southern Great Lakes. This low track will have one the main deformation axes over us and provide for a large area of stratiform rainfall. With the low track this axis will generally setup from south central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin. Rain will be possible farther northwest of this axis, but the amounts will be lower. Overall this feels much more like the kind of systems we see during the winter, which as we are in October now is not surprising, as this is deformation driven precipitation and we expect some lighter wrap around precipitation afterwards as well. Looking toward the model guidance there is much better agreement with both the RRFS and HRRR having a similar footprint of the QPF. Looking towards the ensembles there remain some difference between the HREF and REFS with the REFS slightly farther east. HREF PMM has the southeast Twin Cities metro as the edge of highest QPF, but the REFS has this farther east into Wisconsin. Overall rainfall is likely along a Fairmont to Mankato to Twin Cities axis with chances dropping off to the northwest. Southeast of this axis is where the highest QPF with totals of 0.5-1" are expected based on these PMM from the CAM ensembles. Forecast soundings show a setup for stratiform rain with a well saturated sounding and little instability to support thunderstorms. This is supported with SPC outlooks that do not have us in general thunder. Tomorrow and Saturday... As the surface low departs some additional light rain could occur with some wrap around in the morning. In general, Friday will be driven by CAA associated with a high moving in to our west. The impact from this high will be cold air and gusty winds. The peak of the CAA should come to an end by the evening and that should help bring the gusts down. However this keeps the CAA strong during the daytime heating keeping highs down in the lower 50s. Then under the high pressure light winds and clear skies will allow for ample radiational cooling Friday night into Saturday morning. This creates a favorable setup for frost and freeze. Based on our current forecast and guidance a freeze looks like it could occur everywhere outside of the urban core of the Twin Cities. Even in the urban core a frost still looks likely. Clear skies look to continue into the day which should allow for warming, especially as the the flow aloft starts to shift towards WAA later in the day. Next Week... This period is driven by persistent ridging with an uncertain end point. The ridging will persist through mid week with some guidance suggesting we could see our next wave late next week, but spread remains. What this means for the weather is warm, much above normal temperatures, return along with few if any chances for rain. So after our coldest air of the season so far Friday into Saturday morning we look to go right back into the warmth. Normal highs next week fall into the mid 50s and our forecast currently has mid to upper 60s. So ten or more degree above normal which could drive our current, already high, departure even higher for the month. We will needto keep on eye on records for October, as another week of 10+ degree above normal temperatures could put us in reach of a record warm month. A lot can change in a short time in fall though, but it will take a big shift in the last week of the month to make a dent in how warm it has been. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light rain continues into this evening with mainly MVFR visibility & ceilings expected. Better chances for IFR conditions exits across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. The rain ends from west to east late this afternoon & evening, but MVFR ceilings stick around through most of tomorrow morning. Another round of isolated to scattered rain showers is likely overnight but any minor impacts to visibility will be brief. Gusty winds will be an issue overnight & especially tomorrow morning. Northwest winds around 10 kts this afternoon increase this evening with gusts mainly to 20-25 kts through tonight. Speeds increase overnight into early tomorrow morning & become ore northerly through tomorrow morning. Sustained winds of 20-25 kts are likely with gusts of 30-35 kts. A few gusts to 40 kts are possible, especially across western Minnesota. Winds willremain gusty into the afternoon but speeds decrease to around 20 kts. KMSP...Light rain continues until 7-8 PM with MVFR ceilings & visibility prevailing. Brief periods of IFR are possible this afternoon. Ceilings lift & break up briefly this evening but return to MVFR overnight through Friday morning. Wind speeds pick up this evening but the main impacts begin early tomorrow morning when northerly winds gust to 30-35 kts. Speeds will decrease through the afternoon but still gust to 20-25 kts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10G20kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...ETA  230 FXUS63 KSGF 151830 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 130 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms (30-60%) with a frontal passage through this evening and tonight. Additional rainfall amounts around a few tenths of an inch. - Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the 50s to 60s. The coolest day will be on Friday. Expect gusty northerly winds of 25 to 35 mph behind the frontal passage through Friday evening. - Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, Saturday and Sunday mornings as lows dip into the 30s. The highest confidence is on Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Ozarks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today-Tonight: The upper level trough is beginning to dig out of the Northern Plains this afternoon, with an associated low lifting through the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. A strong cold front will sweep through the region as the trough translates towards the Ohio Valley. A warm and rather humid airmass for mid-October is in place across the area early this afternoon. Scattered showers (30-60% chances) continue to advect through the warm sector this afternoon, with thunder limited by the lack of forcing. The Flood Watch was cancelled early given the scattered coverage and less favorable conditions for excessive rainfall this afternoon. Expect this activity to continue to move through the area ahead of the frontal passage that is surging south. As the front passes through, better forcing may support a few heavier downpours and isolated thunderstorms. At this time, it does not appear any stronger thunderstorms will occur in this environment. The front continues to push southeast through the area into this evening and tonight, with gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph behind the passage. Temperatures will quickly begin to cooldown, with lows in the 40s by Friday morning. Additional rainfall amounts will be limited to a few tenths of an inch through tonight. This will bring storm total rainfall amounts to 0.5 to 2 inches for several locations, with localized corridors of 2 to 4 inches over the last 36 hours. This has been a beneficial rainfall across the area given the ongoing drought conditions. Friday: Some breaks in the clouds through Friday morning before additional low-level clouds overspread the area into Friday afternoon. Low chances (10%) exist for light sprinkles with wraparound moisture being squeezed out of the atmosphere as high pressure builds towards the area. Otherwise, a rather chilly Friday is in the forecast as gusty northwest winds persist with highs in the 50s. It is plausible that some locations struggle to break 50 on Friday afternoon. Winds will gradually taper off into Friday night, though clouds will remain scattered to broken in coverage. Lows Friday night into Saturday morning fall into the middle 30s to lower 40s. The coldest temperatures will be focused across the eastern Ozarks. However, confidence is relatively low for frost into Saturday morning given the lingering winds and cloud cover. Any frost will be patchy in nature, and confined to sheltered areas and valleys. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Saturday-Sunday: High pressure settles over the region into Saturday, with clouds clearing the area. Expect highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Saturday afternoon, with light northeast winds. Clear skies and calm winds set the stage for another chilly night, including increasing chances for areas of frost. The latest guidance suggests probabilities of frost formation (< 35 degrees as a proxy) have increased to 60-90% in areas, especially across the eastern Ozarks. It is even reasonable to expect the much lower elevations and protected areas out east will fall below freezing. It is fairly common for this area to see temperatures 5+ degrees below surrounding observations. Elsewhere, patchy frost remains in the cards for Sunday morning and potential headlines will be assessed with future forecast updates. For some context, the average first frost date for the eastern Ozarks ranges from October 10-15, while the average first freeze data ranges from October 17-22. So while we have had quite warm temperatures September and the first half of October, the first frost/freeze is actually coming around right on time in terms of climatology. Highs a bit warmer into Sunday, reaching into the middle to upper 60s. Early Next Week: A ridge gradually amplifies over the central CONUS into early/mid next week, supporting a return of above normal temperatures. This will be characterized by high temperatures back into the middle to upper 70s, to even lower 80s by mid- week. This aligns with the latest CPC forecasts, depicting 70-80% chances for above normal temperatures into mid to late next week. Meanwhile, any rain chances remain low (< 10%) through early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A system continues to support scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the area through tonight. Periods of MVFR to IFR flight conditions accompany this activity, with reduced visibilities around 4 to 6 miles and ceilings around 900 to 2500 feet at times. Widespread reduced ceilings along a frontal passage late this afternoon and evening. Winds will turn from southwest this afternoon to west-northwest with the front. Wind gusts around 20 to 30 knots persist behind the frontal passage through Friday. A break in the clouds Friday morning before additional low-level clouds advect into the area Friday afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Perez  763 FXUS63 KICT 151834 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 134 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will continue to decrease across southeast Kansas into this evening with minor localized flooding concerns. - Much cooler temperatures are forecast tonight through Sunday with frost potential likely early Saturday morning as lows drop into the lower 30s. A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of central KS where lows near 30 are expected. - Warming trend expected for Monday through Thursday with storm chances returning mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, an upper trough is sliding across the northern Plains with a shortwave trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the central Plains. Upper ridging has started building into the western CONUS. At the surface, a low is over northern Missouri with a cold front draping down through southeast Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma and western Texas. Showers are starting to taper off in southeast Kansas with chances continuing to decrease into this evening. As we continue into tonight, colder air will move in with lows dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s on early Friday morning. For Friday, the colder airmass with falling heights/decreased thickness will settle in, resulting in high temperatures topping out in the low 50s across the area. This is about 15 to 20 degrees below normal making this the coldest fall temperatures we have seen so far. As the upper trough and associated surface low propagate east throughout the day Friday, an increased pressure gradient will remain over eastern Kansas. This will bring breezy conditions to the area with sustained winds between 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Upper ridging will build into the Plains on Friday night, shifting a surface high to over Kansas. Winds will calm significantly into Saturday morning with lows dropping into the lower 30s, likely resulting in widespread frost across the area except potentially for far southeast Kansas where lows in the mid to upper 30s are possible. Lows near 30 are likely in central KS, so hoisted a Freeze Watch for this potential. Cooler conditions will persist into Saturday as expansive high pressure remains over eastern Kansas with decreased thickness. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to near 60 on Saturday afternoon with lows dropping into the upper 30s on early Sunday morning. On Sunday, an upper shortwave and its associated surface low will slide across southern Canada with surface troughing extending into the central Rockies, increasing the pressure gradient across Kansas. Breezy conditions will return especially for areas west of the Kansas Turnpike. Sustained winds are forecast between 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph with the strongest winds expected in central KS. High temperatures will return to the 60s on Sunday afternoon with lows in the mid 40s early Monday morning. Guidance suggests a low chance of showers late Sunday night into Monday, though confidence is low so kept mention of this out at this time. For Monday and beyond, upper ridging will continue to influence the Plains, promoting a warming trend Monday through Thursday. Highs will return to the 70s with readings near 80 on both Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for showers and storms will potentially arrive mid to late next week as a deep upper trough over the western CONUS will traverse towards the Rockies on Thursday, though there is still uncertainty. Stay tuned as we continue to refine this forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Main aviation concerns will be low ceilings along with reduced visibility due to drizzle, fog and light rain. Cold front has pushed through Wichita and is moving into the Flint Hills. Near or right behind the front we are seeing some drizzle/light rain along with fog that may reduce vis some. In addition, some pockets of light rain are also lingering across parts of south central KS. Also still seeing an area of showers extend from southwest OK through southeast KS as 850mb moisture transport remains in place. This will continue for the next 3-5 hours before pushing east. Behind the front we are seeing mostly MVFR cigs with pockets of IFR lingering. As drier air continues to spill south, we should see mostly MVFR transitioning to VFR over the next few hours, especially across central KS. Last but not least, strong northwest winds are anticipated area wide by late Fri morning across the entire area, with gusts in the 30-35kt range likely. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-047>049. && $$ DISCUSSION...GC AVIATION...RBL  729 FXUS63 KPAH 151834 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 134 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms this afternoon mainly for areas in the vicinity of and north of I-64. The main threats would be damaging winds and possibly an isolated tornado. - Cooler conditions are expected Friday through the weekend behind the cold front. Friday will also be breezy with northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph at times. - Saturday night has a pretty good potential for a first frost across most of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s. - Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to around or slightly above normal by mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A warm front will continue to slowly lift north this afternoon as its parent sfc low moves northeast through northern MO and its attendant cold front approaches from the west. Shower and storms are expected to begin to redevelop over northwestern portions of the area over the next few hours. SPC upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) over our northern most counties in southern IL and southwest IN for this afternoon. This is based primarily on the potential for destabilization due to daytime heating over the next few hours, and excessively high PWATs that are greater than 2" causing the potential for damaging winds. The main threats this afternoon would be damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado. Looking into model soundings there could be a potential for a few low-topped supercells or "spinny showers" which could result in the possibility of a "sneaky" tornado or two. Will need to keep a close eye on the evolving situation this afternoon. The severe threat exists mainly till sunset as conditions wane quickly after that, however showers may continue for several more hours. A cold front then moves through the area tonight and brings us a big cool down for tomorrow and Saturday. Highs will be 25-30 degrees cooler tomorrow as they struggle to reach 60 degrees, and will hover right around 60 on Saturday. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest tomorrow with gusts to around 30 mph at times. Saturday night shows a pretty good potential for a first frost across a majority of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s. Temperatures then begin to moderate Sunday with sfc high pressure to the northeast and southerly return flow. Expect a gradual warming trend through the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Lower cloud heights still exist for the northern sites, but should increase briefly to VFR in the next few hours at EVV and OWB. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front with highest chances at the northern sites. Winds will pick up (6-12kt) shortly out of the S/SW and will shift to be out of the W/NW as the cold front moves through the forecast area. Stronger gusts are expected to increase in the latter half of the TAF period up to 20-25 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HICKFORD AVIATION...AZ  796 FXUS64 KEWX 151835 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 134 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Heavy rainfall threat prompts Flood Watch for Val Verde County through Friday morning. - Wind Advisory for all of South Central Texas Friday with sustained winds of 25-30 mph and gusts between 40 and 50 mph. - Much cooler air behind a cold front Friday through Sunday with the first true taste of Fall air. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A busy first 24-36 hours is ahead of us as a powerful cold front swings through South Central Texas tonight and early Friday. Out ahead of this front, continued warm and humid conditions persist this afternoon. Out west, in Val Verde County, a Flood Watch remains in effect through 7am Friday as locally heavy rainfall is expected on the tail end of the front as it moves into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains late this evening. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected with isolated amounts of up to 6 inches possible. The latest 12Z suite of CAMs and hi-res guidance including the RRFS, REFS, and HREF members indicate that the front will likely move through the region an hour or two faster than the previous forecast. This is a common theme as we get closer to FROPA, as global models typically have a difficult time with shallower cold air masses. While there is a chance for rain for most areas, the greatest concentration of rainfall will be over the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau late this evening. Most locations outside of that will see less than 0.5 inches of rain before all is said and done. Winds will quickly pick up behind the front, likely in the 25-30 mph range with gusts of 40-50 mph likely from sunrise Friday through sunset in the evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 4am Friday through 7pm Friday to account for these gusty winds. Any rainfall should quickly end by mid-morning Friday followed by skies breaking to partly cloudy by the afternoon. Strong CAA is expected despite some sunshine in the afternoon, and we have adjusted for highs to be reached in the morning before falling through the day as cooler air filters in behind the front. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, with mid to upper 60s/lower 70s everywhere else. Add in the gusty winds, and jackets will most certainly need to have the dust shaken off as we break them back out. Friday night will feature the coolest temperatures since the Spring, as temperatures dip into the 40s and 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The weekend is shaping up to be rather cool, with high pressure settling in and temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s on Saturday. Saturday night will be even colder than Friday night, as strong radiational cooling sends temperatures down in the lower to middle 40s over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, and into the mid to upper 40s elsewhere. 850mb temperatures will even dip as low as 2 to 3 C Saturday morning, which is fairly impressive given how warm its been lately. On Sunday, we start to see surface flow and return flow develop out of the east and southeast, particularly late in the day, but highs will still only climb into the 60s and 70s. The slow and steady warming trend continues Monday through the middle to end of next week, but there are signs of increased rainfall towards late week and next weekend. For now, things are dry after the passage of this front through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 There is amix of low clouds across most areas of South Central Texas with high clouds mainly over the Pecos area and extending into Val Verde County as of 1 PM CDT/18Z. VFR conditions are in place for the local area terminals early this afternoon and anticipated to keep trend through at least mid evening. Then, weather conditions begin to change over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains as a cold front arrives and moves across that region. KDRT has the best chances for showers and storms to impact the terminal with MVFR cigs and vsbys late tonight continuing through Friday morning. In the wake of the front, strong north winds follow with speeds of 18 to 30 knots and gusts up to 45 knots. The frontal boundary and associated strong and gusty winds are forecast to arrive across the I-35 corridor between 09Z and 10Z Friday. Breezy to windy conditions and gusty winds are forecast to remain across the local area for most of the day on Friday before relaxing Friday night (VFR conditions forecast for this period). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 63 67 50 69 / 40 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 59 63 46 65 / 50 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 63 66 49 67 / 80 50 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 66 48 68 / 40 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 66 69 48 70 / 40 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 69 51 70 / 40 20 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 69 51 69 / 40 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 68 70 52 70 / 40 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ171>173- 183>194-202>209-217>225-228. Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ183. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM....MMM AVIATION...17  710 FXUS65 KMSO 151833 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1233 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Cool mornings and pleasant afternoons the rest of the week. - Gusty winds and choppy lakes on Saturday, especially across northwest MT. - Pattern shift early next week, gradually cooling with scattered showers. A ridge of high pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and pleasant mid-October weather across the region through Friday, aside from some patchy valley fog Friday morning. High temperatures on Friday may stay slightly cooler in the valleys than initially expected due to stable conditions and cold air trapped in the valleys overnight (inversions). The pattern shifts this weekend, as a dry cold front sweeps through western Montana and north-central Idaho Saturday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, breezy westerly winds will help warm daytime temperatures. Expect wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, with exposed higher terrain seeing gusts in excess of 50 mph. These winds will create choppy conditions on local lakes and pose hazards for small watercraft, especially along the eastern shores of Flathead Lake. While a few light showers may pass through northwest Montana, little to no rain is expected. Afternoon temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year through mid-week. A broader weather system will move into the western US mid-week. Most of the moisture and storm energy are expected to track well south of our area into the Great Basin. However, the Northern Rockies will still transition to a more active weather pattern. Expect a return of showers and a cooldown to near-average seasonal temperatures through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...A ridge of high pressure remains over the region through Friday, generally favoring VFR conditions. However, the strengthening ridge will favor overnight valley inversions, resulting in areas of dense fog and stratus. A Canadian air mass moving south from Alberta this evening may bring just enough of a light easterly wind to keep the lower atmosphere mixed at KGPI and KMSO, which should prevent low-level fog from developing. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$  925 FXUS62 KCHS 151837 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 237 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday. - 2) Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday. Continued warm and dry conditions today and Friday as a ridge of high pressure slides across the region from west to east. At the surface, high pressure combined with h925 temperatures in the 20-22 deg C range will result in afternoon highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s today. This is within reach of a few record high temperatures across the region, with the individual records at our climate sites in the climate section at the bottom of AFD. Similar to the past couple mornings, patchy shallow ground fog may develop during the late overnight hours into the morning. Inland, we'll likely reach cross over temperatures with max expected dew points today in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s, resulting in cross-over temperatures reached/exceeded. Along the coast, fog is a bit more uncertain as overnight lows approach cross-over temperature but don't exceed them. Probabilities for visibilities below 5 miles are in the 20 to 30% range, with probabilities for a mile dropping below 15%. After any fog mixes out, above normal temperatures build into Friday afternoon. While h925 temperatures remain in the 20-22 deg C range producing highs in the mid to upper 80s across the region, winds become gusty in the afternoon with gusts in the teens as a cold front approaches from the west. KEY MESSAGE 2: Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. Friday: A strong cold front will approach from the northwest this weekend, likely passing across the local area Friday night into early Saturday. Ahead of the front, another warm day is expected with temperatures well above normal, generally peaking in the mid- upper 80s. Temps should fall a few degrees short of record warmth. Latest guidance indicates modest moisture supply with and post fropa during overnight hours as well, but the duration suggests very little if any precip accumulation across northern areas. Post fropa, northwesterly winds develop, becoming breezy after midnight, but well short of any land-based headline criteria (gusts to 15-20 mph). The exception could be across Lake Moultrie, where mid 70s water temps promote ample mixing into 30 kt low-lvl wind fields. A Lake Wind Advisory could be needed for Lake Moultrie prior to daybreak Saturday. Saturday and Sunday: A noticeably cooler airmass will be in place as high pressure builds behind a departing cold front. Afternoon highs and overnight lows will be some 20-25 degrees colder than the previous day, struggling to reach the mid-upper 60s inland and lower 70s elsewhere Saturday afternoon, then low-mid 60s Sunday afternoon. Overnight lows should dip into mid 40s inland to low-mid 50s near the coast. Breezy north/northeasterly winds will be the main issue over the weekend, as strong cold air advection associated with building high pressure promotes mixing into enhanced low-lvl wind fields (1000mb geostrophic winds 30-40 kt). Wind gusts up to 20-30 mph will be common Saturday and Sunday for most areas, with perhaps some slight enhancement along the beaches, upwards to 30-35 mph. Conditions appear to fall short of Wind Advisory criteria, although winds could become rather gusty on bridges near the coast. The exception will remain across Lake Moultrie where warmer lake waters promote stronger low-lvl mixing and likely support Lake Wind Advisory conditions Saturday into Sunday. On Monday, sfc high pressure should persist across the region, but start to show signs of weakening across the Southeast heading into the middle of next week. However, northerly sfc flow remains and likely slows airmass modification early to mid week, perhaps due to low pressure also attempting to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures should gradually warm mid-late week, but could remain a few degrees below normal (mid-upper 70s for highs). && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mostly clear skies are expected this afternoon, though a cu field can't be ruled out near 5kft as is observed on satellite. Otherwise expect light winds shifting to become out of the south later today, becoming weakly southwesterly overnight. Chances for patchy shallow ground fog increase during the late overnight hours. Probabilities for visibilities below 5 miles are in the 20 to 30% range, with probabilities for a mile dropping below 15%. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. However, breezy north/northeasterly winds are likely at all terminals Saturday through Monday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: No marine concerns in the near-term as surface high pressure will be moving further out into the Atlantic tonight, shifting the winds from southerly to southwesterly. Winds are expected to remain below 10 knots. Friday through Tuesday: A strong cold front will shift across local waters Friday night, leading to a sharp wind shift and deteriorating marine conditions across all local waters Saturday. Strong cold air advection associated with building high pressure in wake of the front will likely support northerly winds in excess of 25 kt and seas building to 5-8 ft later Saturday, supporting a period of at least Small Craft Advisory level conditions for all waters prior to further deterioration across marine areas. Gale force winds enter across local waters by Saturday night as cold air advection persists and a pinching of the pressure gradient occurs, resulting in enhanced north-northeast winds. Gale Watches/Warnings will likely be needed for all nearshore and offshore SC/GA waters Saturday evening through Monday, before improving conditions begin on Tuesday, although still likely supporting Small Craft Advisory level conditions into the middle of next week. There still remains some concern of reaching storm force wind gusts across parts of outer waters (NBM supports ~40% probability of 48 kt wind gusts), especially offshore Georgia waters during the peak of the event Sunday/Sunday night. This will continue to be monitored for a potential Storm Watch. Strong north/northeast winds will also support large seas this weekend, potentially upwards to 7-11 ft across nearshore waters (largest in GA waters) and 10-15 ft across offshore waters (largest in GA waters). Elevated seas and strong/persistent north-northeast winds likely support breakers in excess of 5 ft along the beaches, largest across GA. High Surf Advisories are likely Sunday into Monday, and possibly along the GA coast into Tuesday. Thereafter, high pressure slowly modifies with a relaxing pressure gradient, leading to subsiding seas. However, long-period swell may persist after local winds decline, supporting elevated seas into the middle of next week. Mariners should continue monitor the forecast for this weekend before heading offshore. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 15: KCHS: 87/2021 KCXM: 88/1925 KSAV: 90/1925 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ APT/DPB  977 FXUS61 KOKX 151838 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 238 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The potential for wind headlines has continued to decrease for Friday night into Saturday, otherwise no significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong frontal system brings showers late tonight into Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated thunderstorms primarily during Friday evening. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The next frontal system approaches tonight, with a warm frontal passage during Friday morning. This will bring the next chance of any meaningful rain late Thursday night into a portion of the day Friday. The first batch of rain should be primarily light and will be associated with the warm front. The warm front is progged to lift further north towards the afternoon, thus a break in the rain is expected for several hours at this point as an approaching cold front towards evening is being progged to move a bit slower than previously indicated. Therefore the area will get into the warm sector for a large portion of Friday afternoon with seasonably warm temperatures mainly well into the 70s, especially away from the ocean. With the front progged to a be bit slower the cold front is likely to swing through primarily during the evening hours allowing instability to build some later in the day. Therefore the front may bring with it some heavier shower activity and the slight chance of a few thunderstorms. The consensus on forecasted total rainfall amounts still looks to be on the order of a half inch or thereabouts from the warm front and cold front combined. Locally higher amounts of up to three quarters of an inch, to one inch cannot be completely ruled out where any convective activity initiates. Any line of convection will be somewhat shallow and fast moving, so any downpours should be short-lived. SPC has placed a good portion of the area in a marginal risk of severe weather for late Friday / Friday evening. With the shallow nature of any expected convection the only risk is a limited wind risk with any storms. A few showers remain possible behind the front until around 06-12z Sat as the upper trough axis lags to the west and attempts to amplify. The winds will increase ahead of the cold front during Friday afternoon out of the southwest. The winds will then quickly shift to the W during late Friday evening for far western sections, then further east into the overnight hours into Saturday morning as the cold front passes through. Much drier air returns for the second half of Friday night into early Saturday morning with the winds becoming more NW and gusty as the cold front eventually gets offshore. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds later Friday night into Saturday. As mixing increases in the column immediately behind the cold front look for strong, gusty winds behind the front which may last right through a good portion of the afternoon. Also, behind the front the coolest weather of the fall is likely for the first half of the weekend. Daytime highs Saturday will be in the lower and middle 50s with a gusty NNW wind. Widespread 30s and lower 40s are expected for lows Saturday night. Some temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of the 50s with much lighter winds. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure retreats to the east tonight, while a frontal system approaches from the west. The associated warm front will pass through Friday morning into early afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage during the late afternoon into early evening hours. VFR until late tonight, then showers will overspread the area from west to east after 06Z with ceilings lowering from MVFR to IFR. Following the warm frontal passage, expect gradual improvement with VFR conditions developing for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals around 18Z. Eastern terminals should follow a short time later, except for KGON which could take much of the day. NE winds 5-10 kt will shift to the SE this afternoon into this evening. Speeds increase late tonight to around 10 kt at some coastal sites. Winds will then veer to the SW as the warm front passes with the potential for gusts to around 20kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of lowering flight categories overnight into Friday morning could vary by 1-2 hours. Same with the improvement late morning into the afternoon. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible after 21Z Friday with the approach of a cold front. Chance of MVFR in showers overnight Friday (following the cold frontal passage). .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday Afternoon: Improvement to VFR for the eastern terminals should occur by 21Z, but could take until around or shortly after 00Z Sat for KGON. SW winds G20-25kt in the afternoon. A fine line of showers/embedded thunderstorms approaches from the NW in the later afternoon into early evening hours. A few G40-50kt possible with the line. Friday night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the evening, with mainly MVFR conditions, then VFR. Cold frontal passage followed by W-NW winds G25kt. Guidance is also trending toward a round of post-frontal showers Friday night into Saturday morning. Chance of MVFR with these showers. Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The pressure gradient relaxes some through this afternoon as high pressure builds with sub advisory conditions prevailing. However, conditions ramp up during Friday morning with small craft conditions quickly developing in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front passes through across the waters late Friday night with the winds becoming W, then NW during Saturday morning. A period of gales remains possible across a good portion of the waters late Friday night into the day on Saturday. Small craft conditions will likely linger for much of Saturday night before sub advisory conditions return during Sunday morning. With high pressure building across the waters Sunday and settling nearby into early next week sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331- 355. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ332- 340-345-350-353. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...DW MARINE...JE  951 FXUS66 KSGX 151837 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1137 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Santa Ana winds expected today through Saturday, with the strongest and most widespread on Friday. Additionally, moderate to major HeatRisk is expected for coastal areas. Cooler conditions will spread inland Sunday, with greater cooling and chance of showers next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION/BEACHES/MARINE DISCUSSION... Today through tomorrow night... As an upper level low that has been cut off east of the region establishes itself to the southwest of San Diego, with a high positioned to the north over northwestern Nevada in a rex blocking pattern, the pressure gradient between the two are going to allow for offshore winds to strengthen, initially out of the north to northeasterly direction today, and then becoming more easterly tomorrow. These winds are expected to peak tomorrow, with gusts at around 35 to 55 mph for the inland valleys, and stronger gusts along the slopes, with local gusts approaching 70 mph within some of the higher terrain passes and canyons. As the low taps into some of the remnant tropical moisture from Simon, it will provide a slight increase in humidity tomorrow, and there will be slight chance of a shower or two developing over the mountains during the afternoon hours. RH values will diminish to 15-25 percent by later this afternoon, but then gradually increase to 20 to 30 percent minimum values from Friday, with the influx of moisture. (see fire weather section below). Temperatures will be warmest for the coastal locations, due to the offshore flow. This will also help to impede the marine layer from forming overnight. Highs will be the warmest tomorrow, and for the coastal regions, ranging from upper 80s to low 90s, hence the reason for the Heat Advisory. This weekend through next Wednesday... Santa Ana conditions will persist through Saturday, and then these offshore winds will begin to weaken. Temperatures will gradually cool throughout the weekend, and onshore flow will eventually return going into Sunday, which may bring about the onset of some dense fog for portions of the coastal areas during the early morning hours. There will also be an approaching major shortwave trough towards the middle part of next week, which will bring chances of precipitation back into the picture by late Tuesday into Wednesday, along with the return of much cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... 151830Z...SKC and VFR through Fri. Northeast winds will remain elevated into Fri, when the strongest and most widespread winds are expected. For the mountain foothills peak gusts of 45 to 55 kt are expected. For the valleys, gusts 30 to 45 kt, locally higher near mountain foothills are likely. Coast and Coachella Valley will also see elevated winds with gusts 20 to 30 kt. There is a potential for gusts of 50 kt to occur at KONT early Fri AM. Winds may decrease briefly after 00Z Fri, increasing around 10Z Fri. Winds Fri will weaken from north to south 18-22Z. Areas of MOD-STG up/downdrafts in lee of (south and west of) mountains along with areas of LLWS where strong winds do not surface. East winds continue into Sat. && .MARINE... Isolated northeast gusts could exceed 20 knots Friday into early Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .BEACHES... A south swell from 190 to 200 degrees at 3 to 4 feet with a 15-17 second period will generate elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet, with local sets to 7 feet. There is an increased risk of strong rip currents. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire. High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Diego County Valleys. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for San Bernardino County Mountains. High Wind Warning until midnight PDT Saturday night for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. High Wind Warning until noon PDT Saturday for Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Wind Advisory until noon PDT Saturday for Orange County Inland Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Stewey AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CO  201 FXUS61 KBOX 151843 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 243 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is a low risk for severe weather Friday between 5 and 11 pm in the form of strong to localized damaging wind gusts. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief period of showers mainly Fri morning with a lull in the activity much of Fri afternoon outside of a few spot showers. Cluster of showers & perhaps a few embedded t-storms with even a low risk for severe weather between 5 and 11 pm Fri evening. Windy and much cooler Sat with highs in the lower-middle 50s. - Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. - Dry with a modest warmup through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Brief period of showers mainly Fri morning with a lull in the activity much of Fri afternoon outside of a few spot showers. Cluster of showers & perhaps a few embedded t-storms with even a low risk for severe weather between 5 and 11 pm Fri evening. Windy and much cooler Sat with highs in the lower-middle 50s. Large high pressure shifts east of the region tonight as an intensifying low pressure moves across the eastern Great Lakes. This will allow a return southerly flow of air along with increasing low level moisture to work northward into the region overnight. Initially...mainly clear skies/light winds will allow for temps to fall quickly through the 40s in many locations shortly after sunset this evening. However...increasing clouds along with developing low level southeast flow will allow for slowly rising temperatures toward daybreak. In addition...the developing southerly LLJ/moisture transport will increase the forcing for ascent and allow for a cluster of showers to develop toward daybreak across interior southern New England. These showers may reach the coastal plain during the early-mid morning hours. The showers should be fairly numerous especially across northern MA...but the steady showers should be relatively short-lived lasting generally 1-3 hours in a given location. Otherwise...a good portion of Fri afternoon should feature a lull in the activity. A few spot showers certainly will remain possible...But much of this period may feature just cloudy skies with a breezy southerly wind. Despite lots of clouds...strong warm advection should push highs well into the 60s in many locations perhaps even near 70 in few spots. Dewpoints reaching or breaking 60+ will result in a bit of humidity too for the middle of October standards. The main concern though is between 5 and 11 pm Fri evening as a cold front crosses the region. There should be roughly a few hundred J/KG of at least elevated Cape ahead of this front. Strong jet dynamics/forcing are also depicted ahead of this front with 55-65 knots of effective shear. The high resolution models generally show a line of showers with perhaps some embedded thunder as the cold front sweeps across the region. Despite very strong jet dynamics...instability is meager...so the severe weather potential is low but brief sub-severe wind gusts of 35-50 mph are still possible even if the showers do not contain any thunder. However...if we end up getting just a bit better moisture return off the relatively warm ocean...the low risk for severe weather could be realized. The CSU machine learning probabilities as well as the NCAR HRRR neural network indicate a low risk for severe weather. Again this is a low probability...but it needs to be watched. The main risk would be locally strong to damaging wind gusts especially with fully leafed trees across most locations. Otherwise...a much cooler airmass works into the region late Fri night and Saturday on quite gusty NW winds. A few lingering showers possible into mid-morning Sat near the southeast New England coast. Otherwise...windy with northwest wind gusts on the order of 25 to 35 mph with a few gusts near 40 mph expected on Sat. Despite skies becoming partly sunny on Sat...highs will be held in the lower to middle 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. After a cool, dry and blustery Saturday, looking at one of the coldest nights we've seen to this point in autumn 2026 as broad, and strong high pressure settles in over the Northeast. It's still a little unclear how quickly the blustery NW winds from the daytime hours subside but at least very good radiational cooling conditions are anticipated. With a likely cool start, should see lows drop into mid 20s to low 30s range for much of Southern New England except in the mid 30s for the cities and Cape Cod/Islands. Note that the frost/freeze program for Southern New England has ended as of October 11th and not expected to resume again until mid-Spring 2027, which means freeze/frost headlines won't be issued; however if you still have plants/crops outside, you'll want to take the necessary precautions to prevent freeze/frost damage. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry with a modest warmup through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters. The expansive surface high pressure from Saturday night, spanning from the Southern Appalachians through Southern New England and the Canadian Maritimes, then governs our weather pattern Sunday through early next week. This will facilitate a steady warming trend with slightly above normal temperatures, with mostly clear skies and strong diurnal temperature ranges (milder days, cool nights). Looking at highs Sunday in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the 30s. Highs by early next week rebound back into the middle 60s with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s. It should be a largely dry period through Tuesday, though the one system we'll be monitoring is a closed upper low near the mid- Atlantic/Carolinas waters, a feature which became detached from the broader upper level westerlies along the stalled frontal boundary from Friday night and early Saturday. The general position of this system is generally agreed upon across the ensemble NWP suite and AI- based guidance, but there's quite a bit of uncertainty on if we see any of this moisture come back northward through the governing ridge. That could bring at least enhanced NE breezes, strongest near Cape Cod, and possibly some clouds/light rain showers by Tuesday for southeast New England. But it's very possible it ends up being mainly dry/remains to our south. Will maintain blended guidance for the time being until there's more agreement, but for now will continue to reassess subsequent guidance. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: Today and Tonight...High confidence. VFR. Winds currently shifting NE and diminishing to near 10 kts as the high pressure system takes over. Winds shift SE this evening, generally around 5 kts, and some higher level clouds begin to build in overnight. Thursday Night...Moderate confidence. Becoming MVFR to IFR with -SHRA moving in from west to east between 06Z and 12Z. S-SW winds develop with gusts nearing 20 kt closer to sunrise. Friday...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR with SHRA. Brief respite from SHRA possible in the afternoon hours, though low ceilings continue. Will need to monitor for the risk of some embedded TSRA and convective features. Gusty S to SW winds up to 30 kt with higher gusts possible near the coasts and higher elevations. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Patchy frost. Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Saturday...High confidence. High pressure moves east of the waters tonight...but winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory thresholds. Intensifying low pressure will move across the eastern Great Lakes tonight and then proceed near the northern New England/Quebec border Fri into Fri evening. Ahead of this front...strong small craft southerly wind gusts along with choppy seas will develop early Fri. We have hoisted small craft headlines for all our waters on Fri. Behind this cold front...NW wind gusts of 30-35 knots will develop especially late Fri night into Sat in the CAA pattern. Given it is marginal...we opted to continue Gale Watch over this time period. Despite marginal conditions...cold air advection patterns can often overperform this time of year given relatively warm SST which can enhance mixing. Either way...strong SCA to gale force wind gusts are expected with choppy seas. Outlook /Saturday night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230- 236. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-280>283. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frank/Loconto AVIATION...McMinn MARINE...Frank/Loconto  192 FXUS63 KTOP 151843 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 143 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Winds increase and temperatures trend colder behind today's cold front. -A Freeze Watch has been issued Friday night with increasing confidence in freezing temps for a portion of the area. -Temperatures warm late this weekend and early next week with rain chances back in the forecast later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This afternoon, a cold front is moving through eastern KS ahead of a lead trough axis aloft. Northwest winds will increase behind the front as CAA brings in a cooler and drier air mass from the north. Temperatures are likely to drop this afternoon given the strong CAA pattern. Hi-res models then show an increase in northwest winds for a brief period late this evening along a secondary boundary ahead of a stronger trough axis moving in from the Northern Plains. Temperatures fall into the low 40s tonight with gusty winds and clearing skies. A stratus cloud deck then looks to move back over the area tomorrow from the northeast. Continued CAA with the approach of a surface ridge axis and low cloud cover will make for a chilly day with highs only reaching the low to mid 50s tomorrow afternoon. The downward trend in temperatures continues into Saturday morning as a nearly 1040 mb ridge axis settles right overhead. Confidence has been increasing in temperatres falling to near freezing for a good portion of the area with models agreeing on the favorable setup. Thus, in coordination with neighboring offices, a Freeze Watch has been issued for the northwestern half of the forecast area Friday night and early Saturday morning. The rest of the area will likely see headlines as well with area-wide frost looking likely. From there, a gradual warming trend is expected as the ridge quickly moves east, bringing southerly flow back across the region. High temperatures Saturday afternoon should approach 60 degrees, then trend about five degrees warmer each afternoon into the start of next week. The synoptic pattern across the CONUS shifts to a broad area of southwest flow aloft from the southwestern US into the Midwest early in the workweek. Long range deterministic models show periodic shortwaves riding through the flow, however, limited forcing and moisture availability should keep POPs low through Tuesday, then slightly higher probabilities midweek as moisture increases. Rain and storm chances continue to increase later in the week with models in fairly good agreement showing a deeper trough axis approaching the area from the west. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Challenging forecast as a system continues to work through the area today so amendments to TAFs could be needed for the afternoon timeframe. Light and scattered rain showers could linger for the first few hours of this TAF period, but ceilings should generally continue to lift through the afternoon. Northwest winds also increase this afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 kts becoming more likely. There could be a brief period late this evening where winds increase further as a secondary front rotates through the region. VFR is then expected to return tonight. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey  171 FXUS64 KFWD 151842 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 142 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front accompanied by showers and storms will move through late this afternoon and night. Strong winds and heavy rain are the main concern with any more robust storm in NW North Texas. - Strong post-frontal winds with gusts up to 40-45 mph are expected much of Friday. Secure loose outdoor objects. - Much cooler and quiet conditions are expected this weekend with highs in the 60s and lows mainly in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 One last day of unseasonably warm temperatures is expected across much of the region ahead of our first true fall cold front. As of early this afternoon, the front remains to our northwest, where a minute shortwave moving through the Plains is aiding in continued shower and storm development near the boundary. A digging shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains will be the catalyst for the front to finally push south into North and Central Texas later this afternoon, with FROPA expected in our northwest around 2-3 PM. Lift from the front will interact with pooling moisture along the boundary to promote additional widespread shower and storm development near and along the front in our northwestern zones through tonight. This area has the greatest chance to observe periods of heavy rain with PWATs around 2", with most likely rainfall totals between 1-2 inches and isolated amounts closer to around 4 inches. A few instances of flash flooding in this area would not be surprising, so have issued a Flood Watch through 1 AM Friday to account for that potential. Additionally, the overall severe threat is fairly low, but we cannot rule out a few stronger wind gusts with any more organized clusters or bowing segments. The front will continue to advance south-southeast tonight, ushering in cooler temperatures and wind speeds between 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30-35 mph.) As the front pushes through, coverage and intensity of the accompanying showers and storms will lessen as they approach and pass the I-35 corridor. This weakening trend is thanks to a slug of drier air that pushed into the eastern and central portions of the region earlier today, as well as the source of lift remaining displaced to our north. However, enough moisture is expected to remain pooled to promote continued scattered showers and perhaps a couple storms near and behind the front through Friday. Any lingering precipitation should diminish Friday morning, leaving behind much cooler and windier conditions. Winds will be on the increase for much of the day Friday, with peak speeds 20-30 mph and gusts to 40-45 mph likely to occur for much of the day. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all of North and Central Texas from 4 AM to 7 PM tomorrow. Make sure to secure any loose outdoor decor/furniture and to take caution when driving on W-E oriented roads. Aside from the windy conditions, Friday will be much cooler than days previous as strong CAA overspreads the region. Expect afternoon highs primarily in the 60s, with some areas in Central Texas hitting 70 degrees. This is about 15-25 degrees cooler than the high temperatures forecast for today! && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Our fall-like conditions are expected to stick around on Saturday, though winds will be much more modest as the surface gradient relaxes ahead of the incoming post-frontal surface high. Expect morning lows in the 40s and afternoon highs generally in the 60s. Winds will become even lighter Saturday night into Sunday as the surface high moves overtop the region. Have lowered temperatures a bit on Sunday morning to account for the better radiational cooling potential, so morning lows may dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Unfortunately, this will not last as southerly winds return and upper level ridging begins to expand across Mexico and the Gulf, promoting a warming trend back into the 80s by early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Intermittent MVFR cigs in D10 should continue to lift and scatter out over the next hour or two with southerly winds persisting through the afternoon at all TAF sites. A strong cold front is expected to push through the region late this afternoon and evening, The front and northerly winds will reach D10 around 23-00Z, and ACT closer to 03Z. Coverage remains scattered, and direct impacts are uncertain enough to continue a PROB30 mention of -SHRA in D10 between 01-06Z. Strong northerly winds around 15-20 KT (gusting to 25-30KT) and scattered showers are anticipated for much of the night, with showers diminishing closer to 09-10Z tomorrow morning. MVFR cigs will linger for a few additional hours before lifting near daybreak. Expect an additional increase in wind speeds/gusts late tomorrow morning at all TAF sites, with 25G35KT in D10 and 20G30KT at ACT anticipated through the rest of the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 64 48 65 / 50 0 0 0 Waco 60 67 48 67 / 40 0 0 0 Paris 56 64 45 66 / 30 10 0 0 Denton 52 62 44 64 / 60 0 0 0 McKinney 54 63 45 65 / 50 0 0 0 Dallas 57 65 48 67 / 40 10 0 0 Terrell 57 65 46 66 / 20 10 0 0 Corsicana 59 66 47 67 / 30 10 0 0 Temple 59 68 47 68 / 40 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 52 62 43 63 / 80 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater  201 FXUS61 KBOX 151843 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 243 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is a low risk for severe weather Friday between 5 and 11 pm in the form of strong to localized damaging wind gusts. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief period of showers mainly Fri morning with a lull in the activity much of Fri afternoon outside of a few spot showers. Cluster of showers & perhaps a few embedded t-storms with even a low risk for severe weather between 5 and 11 pm Fri evening. Windy and much cooler Sat with highs in the lower-middle 50s. - Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. - Dry with a modest warmup through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Brief period of showers mainly Fri morning with a lull in the activity much of Fri afternoon outside of a few spot showers. Cluster of showers & perhaps a few embedded t-storms with even a low risk for severe weather between 5 and 11 pm Fri evening. Windy and much cooler Sat with highs in the lower-middle 50s. Large high pressure shifts east of the region tonight as an intensifying low pressure moves across the eastern Great Lakes. This will allow a return southerly flow of air along with increasing low level moisture to work northward into the region overnight. Initially...mainly clear skies/light winds will allow for temps to fall quickly through the 40s in many locations shortly after sunset this evening. However...increasing clouds along with developing low level southeast flow will allow for slowly rising temperatures toward daybreak. In addition...the developing southerly LLJ/moisture transport will increase the forcing for ascent and allow for a cluster of showers to develop toward daybreak across interior southern New England. These showers may reach the coastal plain during the early-mid morning hours. The showers should be fairly numerous especially across northern MA...but the steady showers should be relatively short-lived lasting generally 1-3 hours in a given location. Otherwise...a good portion of Fri afternoon should feature a lull in the activity. A few spot showers certainly will remain possible...But much of this period may feature just cloudy skies with a breezy southerly wind. Despite lots of clouds...strong warm advection should push highs well into the 60s in many locations perhaps even near 70 in few spots. Dewpoints reaching or breaking 60+ will result in a bit of humidity too for the middle of October standards. The main concern though is between 5 and 11 pm Fri evening as a cold front crosses the region. There should be roughly a few hundred J/KG of at least elevated Cape ahead of this front. Strong jet dynamics/forcing are also depicted ahead of this front with 55-65 knots of effective shear. The high resolution models generally show a line of showers with perhaps some embedded thunder as the cold front sweeps across the region. Despite very strong jet dynamics...instability is meager...so the severe weather potential is low but brief sub-severe wind gusts of 35-50 mph are still possible even if the showers do not contain any thunder. However...if we end up getting just a bit better moisture return off the relatively warm ocean...the low risk for severe weather could be realized. The CSU machine learning probabilities as well as the NCAR HRRR neural network indicate a low risk for severe weather. Again this is a low probability...but it needs to be watched. The main risk would be locally strong to damaging wind gusts especially with fully leafed trees across most locations. Otherwise...a much cooler airmass works into the region late Fri night and Saturday on quite gusty NW winds. A few lingering showers possible into mid-morning Sat near the southeast New England coast. Otherwise...windy with northwest wind gusts on the order of 25 to 35 mph with a few gusts near 40 mph expected on Sat. Despite skies becoming partly sunny on Sat...highs will be held in the lower to middle 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. After a cool, dry and blustery Saturday, looking at one of the coldest nights we've seen to this point in autumn 2026 as broad, and strong high pressure settles in over the Northeast. It's still a little unclear how quickly the blustery NW winds from the daytime hours subside but at least very good radiational cooling conditions are anticipated. With a likely cool start, should see lows drop into mid 20s to low 30s range for much of Southern New England except in the mid 30s for the cities and Cape Cod/Islands. Note that the frost/freeze program for Southern New England has ended as of October 11th and not expected to resume again until mid-Spring 2027, which means freeze/frost headlines won't be issued; however if you still have plants/crops outside, you'll want to take the necessary precautions to prevent freeze/frost damage. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry with a modest warmup through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters. The expansive surface high pressure from Saturday night, spanning from the Southern Appalachians through Southern New England and the Canadian Maritimes, then governs our weather pattern Sunday through early next week. This will facilitate a steady warming trend with slightly above normal temperatures, with mostly clear skies and strong diurnal temperature ranges (milder days, cool nights). Looking at highs Sunday in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the 30s. Highs by early next week rebound back into the middle 60s with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s. It should be a largely dry period through Tuesday, though the one system we'll be monitoring is a closed upper low near the mid- Atlantic/Carolinas waters, a feature which became detached from the broader upper level westerlies along the stalled frontal boundary from Friday night and early Saturday. The general position of this system is generally agreed upon across the ensemble NWP suite and AI- based guidance, but there's quite a bit of uncertainty on if we see any of this moisture come back northward through the governing ridge. That could bring at least enhanced NE breezes, strongest near Cape Cod, and possibly some clouds/light rain showers by Tuesday for southeast New England. But it's very possible it ends up being mainly dry/remains to our south. Will maintain blended guidance for the time being until there's more agreement, but for now will continue to reassess subsequent guidance. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: Today and Tonight...High confidence. VFR. Winds currently shifting NE and diminishing to near 10 kts as the high pressure system takes over. Winds shift SE this evening, generally around 5 kts, and some higher level clouds begin to build in overnight. Thursday Night...Moderate confidence. Becoming MVFR to IFR with -SHRA moving in from west to east between 06Z and 12Z. S-SW winds develop with gusts nearing 20 kt closer to sunrise. Friday...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR with SHRA. Brief respite from SHRA possible in the afternoon hours, though low ceilings continue. Will need to monitor for the risk of some embedded TSRA and convective features. Gusty S to SW winds up to 30 kt with higher gusts possible near the coasts and higher elevations. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Patchy frost. Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Saturday...High confidence. High pressure moves east of the waters tonight...but winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory thresholds. Intensifying low pressure will move across the eastern Great Lakes tonight and then proceed near the northern New England/Quebec border Fri into Fri evening. Ahead of this front...strong small craft southerly wind gusts along with choppy seas will develop early Fri. We have hoisted small craft headlines for all our waters on Fri. Behind this cold front...NW wind gusts of 30-35 knots will develop especially late Fri night into Sat in the CAA pattern. Given it is marginal...we opted to continue Gale Watch over this time period. Despite marginal conditions...cold air advection patterns can often overperform this time of year given relatively warm SST which can enhance mixing. Either way...strong SCA to gale force wind gusts are expected with choppy seas. Outlook /Saturday night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230- 236. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-280>283. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frank/Loconto AVIATION...McMinn MARINE...Frank/Loconto  192 FXUS63 KTOP 151843 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 143 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Winds increase and temperatures trend colder behind today's cold front. -A Freeze Watch has been issued Friday night with increasing confidence in freezing temps for a portion of the area. -Temperatures warm late this weekend and early next week with rain chances back in the forecast later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This afternoon, a cold front is moving through eastern KS ahead of a lead trough axis aloft. Northwest winds will increase behind the front as CAA brings in a cooler and drier air mass from the north. Temperatures are likely to drop this afternoon given the strong CAA pattern. Hi-res models then show an increase in northwest winds for a brief period late this evening along a secondary boundary ahead of a stronger trough axis moving in from the Northern Plains. Temperatures fall into the low 40s tonight with gusty winds and clearing skies. A stratus cloud deck then looks to move back over the area tomorrow from the northeast. Continued CAA with the approach of a surface ridge axis and low cloud cover will make for a chilly day with highs only reaching the low to mid 50s tomorrow afternoon. The downward trend in temperatures continues into Saturday morning as a nearly 1040 mb ridge axis settles right overhead. Confidence has been increasing in temperatres falling to near freezing for a good portion of the area with models agreeing on the favorable setup. Thus, in coordination with neighboring offices, a Freeze Watch has been issued for the northwestern half of the forecast area Friday night and early Saturday morning. The rest of the area will likely see headlines as well with area-wide frost looking likely. From there, a gradual warming trend is expected as the ridge quickly moves east, bringing southerly flow back across the region. High temperatures Saturday afternoon should approach 60 degrees, then trend about five degrees warmer each afternoon into the start of next week. The synoptic pattern across the CONUS shifts to a broad area of southwest flow aloft from the southwestern US into the Midwest early in the workweek. Long range deterministic models show periodic shortwaves riding through the flow, however, limited forcing and moisture availability should keep POPs low through Tuesday, then slightly higher probabilities midweek as moisture increases. Rain and storm chances continue to increase later in the week with models in fairly good agreement showing a deeper trough axis approaching the area from the west. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Challenging forecast as a system continues to work through the area today so amendments to TAFs could be needed for the afternoon timeframe. Light and scattered rain showers could linger for the first few hours of this TAF period, but ceilings should generally continue to lift through the afternoon. Northwest winds also increase this afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 kts becoming more likely. There could be a brief period late this evening where winds increase further as a secondary front rotates through the region. VFR is then expected to return tonight. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey  171 FXUS64 KFWD 151842 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 142 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front accompanied by showers and storms will move through late this afternoon and night. Strong winds and heavy rain are the main concern with any more robust storm in NW North Texas. - Strong post-frontal winds with gusts up to 40-45 mph are expected much of Friday. Secure loose outdoor objects. - Much cooler and quiet conditions are expected this weekend with highs in the 60s and lows mainly in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 One last day of unseasonably warm temperatures is expected across much of the region ahead of our first true fall cold front. As of early this afternoon, the front remains to our northwest, where a minute shortwave moving through the Plains is aiding in continued shower and storm development near the boundary. A digging shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains will be the catalyst for the front to finally push south into North and Central Texas later this afternoon, with FROPA expected in our northwest around 2-3 PM. Lift from the front will interact with pooling moisture along the boundary to promote additional widespread shower and storm development near and along the front in our northwestern zones through tonight. This area has the greatest chance to observe periods of heavy rain with PWATs around 2", with most likely rainfall totals between 1-2 inches and isolated amounts closer to around 4 inches. A few instances of flash flooding in this area would not be surprising, so have issued a Flood Watch through 1 AM Friday to account for that potential. Additionally, the overall severe threat is fairly low, but we cannot rule out a few stronger wind gusts with any more organized clusters or bowing segments. The front will continue to advance south-southeast tonight, ushering in cooler temperatures and wind speeds between 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30-35 mph.) As the front pushes through, coverage and intensity of the accompanying showers and storms will lessen as they approach and pass the I-35 corridor. This weakening trend is thanks to a slug of drier air that pushed into the eastern and central portions of the region earlier today, as well as the source of lift remaining displaced to our north. However, enough moisture is expected to remain pooled to promote continued scattered showers and perhaps a couple storms near and behind the front through Friday. Any lingering precipitation should diminish Friday morning, leaving behind much cooler and windier conditions. Winds will be on the increase for much of the day Friday, with peak speeds 20-30 mph and gusts to 40-45 mph likely to occur for much of the day. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all of North and Central Texas from 4 AM to 7 PM tomorrow. Make sure to secure any loose outdoor decor/furniture and to take caution when driving on W-E oriented roads. Aside from the windy conditions, Friday will be much cooler than days previous as strong CAA overspreads the region. Expect afternoon highs primarily in the 60s, with some areas in Central Texas hitting 70 degrees. This is about 15-25 degrees cooler than the high temperatures forecast for today! && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Our fall-like conditions are expected to stick around on Saturday, though winds will be much more modest as the surface gradient relaxes ahead of the incoming post-frontal surface high. Expect morning lows in the 40s and afternoon highs generally in the 60s. Winds will become even lighter Saturday night into Sunday as the surface high moves overtop the region. Have lowered temperatures a bit on Sunday morning to account for the better radiational cooling potential, so morning lows may dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Unfortunately, this will not last as southerly winds return and upper level ridging begins to expand across Mexico and the Gulf, promoting a warming trend back into the 80s by early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Intermittent MVFR cigs in D10 should continue to lift and scatter out over the next hour or two with southerly winds persisting through the afternoon at all TAF sites. A strong cold front is expected to push through the region late this afternoon and evening, The front and northerly winds will reach D10 around 23-00Z, and ACT closer to 03Z. Coverage remains scattered, and direct impacts are uncertain enough to continue a PROB30 mention of -SHRA in D10 between 01-06Z. Strong northerly winds around 15-20 KT (gusting to 25-30KT) and scattered showers are anticipated for much of the night, with showers diminishing closer to 09-10Z tomorrow morning. MVFR cigs will linger for a few additional hours before lifting near daybreak. Expect an additional increase in wind speeds/gusts late tomorrow morning at all TAF sites, with 25G35KT in D10 and 20G30KT at ACT anticipated through the rest of the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 64 48 65 / 50 0 0 0 Waco 60 67 48 67 / 40 0 0 0 Paris 56 64 45 66 / 30 10 0 0 Denton 52 62 44 64 / 60 0 0 0 McKinney 54 63 45 65 / 50 0 0 0 Dallas 57 65 48 67 / 40 10 0 0 Terrell 57 65 46 66 / 20 10 0 0 Corsicana 59 66 47 67 / 30 10 0 0 Temple 59 68 47 68 / 40 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 52 62 43 63 / 80 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater  245 FXUS61 KALY 151845 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has introduced a slight risk for severe weather across far southern zones tomorrow afternoon, although several limiting factors remain in play that may prevent much severe weather from occurring. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, showers, and a few thunderstorms to the region for Friday. Continued gusty and unseasonably chilly conditions are expected Friday night into Saturday. A coating of snow is possible in the high terrain Friday night. 2) Dry weather with temperatures moderating to near seasonable levels Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:45 PM EDT...Sfc high pressure remains centered just northwest of the region. With large-scale subsidence and low-level dry advection, morning clouds have diminished with mainly clear skies across the region this afternoon. Afternoon highs will be mainly in the 50s to low 60s. With clear skies and relatively calm winds, temperatures will drop quickly after sunset, especially for northern/northeastern areas. However, increasing mid and high clouds overnight will cause temps to level out and eventually rise the second half of the night. Lows will mainly occur before midnight, and will be in the upper 30s to 40s. Tonight, a strengthening sfc low will track into the Great Lakes, and eventually towards the St Lawrence Valley tomorrow. This will lift a warm front northwards late tonight into tomorrow morning. Fairly strong warm advection/isentropic lift and a band of mid-level FGEN at the leading edge of a strengthening LLJ will allow for widespread showers to break out across the region the second half of tonight into tomorrow morning. With some elevated instability across our area, isolated to scattered embedded non-severe thunderstorms are also expected with these showers. PWATs increase to 1.5-1.75", so some moderate to briefly heavier periods of rain may be possible, making for a wet Friday AM commute. The LLJ strengthens to 50-60 kt early tomorrow morning, and while we will not mix deep enough for gusts that strong to make it down to the surface, winds gusts increase as the LLJ moves overhead. Maximum gusts look to be on the order of 30-40 mph, with a few isolated gusts to 45 mph possible along the west facing slopes of the Taconics/southern Greens and around the Capital District due to flow channeling. These winds could knock down a few large limbs or trees, but are not expected to be strong enough or widespread enough to warrant advisory issuance. By mid-morning, showers will be lingering for northern areas, but a break in shower activity is expected for areas from around the Capital District south and east. Temperatures will be several degrees above normal here, with some low 70s possible thanks to 850 mb temps of +14 to +16C. It will remain breezy in the warm sector, although the core of the LLJ moves off to our north and east before any breaks of sun/deeper mixing occur. Then, tomorrow afternoon and evening, the system's cold front tracks through the region as the sfc low tracks off to our north and east. Strong CVA and the right entrance of a jet streak to our north will provide forcing for ascent, leading to a line of showers and perhaps a few low-topped thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon ahead of the cold front. SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe slightly further north and introduced a slight risk for portions of southern Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield counties, although confidence remains low whether we will see much (if any) severe weather in our CWA. Limiting factors include: SBCAPE looks quite limited, with only 100 to possibly 250 J/kg, and will be confined mainly to the southeastern Catskills and Mid Hudson Valley. Additionally, there is a weak low-level cap seen in forecast soundings that will lead to the presence of some SBCIN. While a few breaks of sun are possible, much of the area in question will likely see fairly extensive cloud cover tomorrow as well that will limit the amount of destabilization. Low-level convergence at the front does not look quite as impressive in our area as for areas further to the south, as we will see a more gradual wind shift to the W/SW and eventually W/NW. Finally, any convection does not look to arrive in our area until ~4 PM, at which point we will already be starting to lose daytime heating. Low and mid-level wind fields remain impressive, so this is not to say we won't have gusty winds with this line of showers/storms tomorrow. However, confidence in these stronger winds aloft being able to mix down to the sfc and reach severe levels remains quite low. The front moves off to our east early Friday night, with a much cooler airmass infiltrating the region in its wake. Showers come to and end for most of the region early Friday night, but lingering upslope/lake enhanced showers changing to snow showers are expected in the ADKs, southern Greens, and northern Catskills. By the time rain comes to an end, most areas will see a half inch to an inch of rain, with some locally higher amounts possible north of I-90. Given quick storm motions and long duration of the rain, no hydro issues expected. A coating to half inch of snow will be possible for the ADKs. Winds also remain gusty of out the W/NW Friday night through Saturday with deeper mixing in the cold advection regime and a tight pressure gradient across the region. Due to the very progressive nature of this system, winds don't look quite as strong as they did a couple days ago. Gusts could reach 30 to possibly 40 mph and will likely remain below advisory criteria. Winds diminish fairly quickly Saturday night after sunset with high pressure building in at the sfc. Saturday will be the coolest day of the fall so far with highs only in the 30s (terrain) to 40s (valleys). KEY MESSAGE 2...Saturday night looks quite chilly with lows mainly in the 20s to low 30s. While the growing season has ended region-wide, will still mention that frost will be possible. High pressure is expected to remain in control of our weather through at least the middle of next week with zonal flow to weak, transient ridging aloft. While SUnday remain below normal (highs in the 40s to 50s), temperatures through the first half of the week moderate to near normal with quiet, tranquil weather expected. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals throughout this afternoon and evening, with some passing high clouds and light northerly winds. Clouds will start to gradually build in overnight while winds remain light, with some low level clouds begin to develop by 04Z-06Z Friday at all terminals as widespread rain moves in from the west. Winds will also start to strengthen around this time, prevailing out of the south to southeast, with gusts gradually strengthening up to 20-30 kts at all terminals except for KPOU, which is expected to see slightly weaker gusts around 15-20 kts. The aforementioned rain will continue throughout Friday morning, bringing MVFR conditions to all terminals, although pockets of heavier rainfall could bring periods of IFR vis and cigs to KGFL, KALB, and KPSF. LLWS is expected at all terminals throughout Friday morning as well, with winds at 2 kft expected to reach up to 35-45 kts. The rain will begin to move east out of the region by late Friday morning, bringing improvements in vis at all terminals. However, IFR to MVFR cigs will stick around through the end of the TAF period with the potential for a few lingering showers. Gusty winds will also persist through the end of the TAF period at all terminals and slightly shift to out of the south-southwest to southwest. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...23  246 FXUS63 KGRR 151845 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fall Storm System to bring Wind, Rain and Lightning to the area - Rather benign weather expected this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Fall Storm System to bring Wind, Rain and Lightning to the area Low pressure is centered just east of Des Moines Iowa at 18Z with widespread rain located to the north of the low over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Two upper shortwaves from both the northern stream and southern stream are phasing off to the west over the upper midwest at this time. As such, the low will deepen as it moves east through the Lower Peninsula. Widespread/deep lift will sweep through Southwest Lower Michigan between roughly 400pm this afternoon and 400am tonight. The bulk of the rain will fall during this period. The lift is driven by the right entrance region of an upper jet that will be located overhead which will drive a low level response of strong isentropic lift and significant moisture transport. Sounding climatology for DTX shows the max PWATs for today being 1.55 inches. We will be north of 1.75 inches this evening. Given abnormal moisture in the depth of the column tonight we expect efficient rainfall production. Most areas will see 0.50 to 1.00 amounts. Amounts may exceed an inch up towards Ludington. Given low river levels and amounts that are not overly concerning not expecting flooding issues. Thunderstorms are a possibility this evening, especially along I-94 between 800pm and 200am. The instability is not strong, several hundred j/kg, but given the dynamics, thunder is a distinct possibility. Wind is the next concern and we have Gale Warnings out on the big lake. As for the land, we feel we will stay just below wind advisory criteria with most gusts in the 30-40 mph range. It will very much feel like fall with a wet, windy and rainy system working through the state. The second portion of the event will come on Friday as a strong cold front sweeps south around daybreak. Showers will accompany the front and usher in cold enough air for lake effect rain. Midday into the afternoon CAPE over the lake is maximized, pushing towards 1,000 j/kg. We are likely looking at thunderstorms off the lake given the significant moisture boost this time of the year via the warmer water. Some diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible inland as well given the cold air aloft. The most concentrated rain will be working down the length of the lake though in northerly flow. - Rather benign weather expected this weekend into early next week Quiet weather conditions will persist over the weekend into early next week as high pressure dominates the scene both at the surface and aloft. The main item of note is that frost and freezing temperatures are possible both Friday night and Saturday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 117 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No significant changes to the forecast other than adding detail to the first few hours and some time adjustments. Conditions will deteriorate over the next several hours to IFR and LIFR as showers and low clouds move in. A brief window of little showers and MVFR cigs is likely from 05z-08z before lake effect rain showers keep MVFR conditions in play, potentially IFR in heavier showers, continuing through the rest of the TAF period. A window of LLWS is expected for a few hours tonight as winds shift to westerly aloft, before increased gusts to 25-30 knots develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A deepening fall storm system is still expected to pass through the Great Lakes in the next 24-36 hours. The low will reach 995mb to 999mb Friday morning and early afternoon as it passes east from Ontario into Quebec. To the west a stout high pressure will be sliding south through the plains at a magnitude of 1040+ mb. Even though the distance between these two features is fairly wide, a tightening pressure gradient will reach its peak on Friday. The strongest winds will likely occur from midday into the evening hours with Gales likely along with the possibility of some Storm Force gusts. 40-45 knot gales look very reasonable over the water. Given the flow is north or even just east of north, the largest waves will be out over the open waters. That said, we are looking at 8 to 13 footers in the nearshore waters. Given along shore flow and water levels (near 579ft) that are 2.5 feet below advisory (582.5ft) we are not expecting any lakeshore flood issues in our area. Small Craft Advisory begins this evening and lasts into Friday morning. A Gale Warning is in place from Friday morning into Friday night. Two items we will be watching are... 1) do we need to jump into the Gale earlier as some models are showing gales in the 06Z-12Z time frame tonight and 2) how much will the wind touch storm force tomorrow. Do not see either as a high probability at this point and will leave the headlines unchanged. Waterspouts will be possible over the lake late tonight and Friday morning before the wind truly ramps up. The stronger winds tends to shear apart waterspouts. Much of this activity will remain over the lake given northerly flow. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Duke  329 FXUS65 KBYZ 151845 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1245 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions over the plains of eastern Montana Today. - Windy conditions Friday into Saturday for the foothills south and west of Billings. Gusts 35 to 50 mph expected. - Above average temperatures Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Wednesday... A cold front has moved through the region overnight, creating slightly cooler conditions for today. As higher pressures fill in, windy conditions are expected to persist through the day across eastern MT. There is still about a 60-80% chance for gusts to 50 mph along the MT/Dakotas border. Through Saturday, higher heights and ridging will move in, creating warm and dry conditions with high temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s. With a tighter gradient aloft and mild 700 mb winds, breezy conditions will be in place for areas south of Billings to the WY border including the Fort Smith area. The Livingston/Big Timber corridor will also be windy late Friday evening through Saturday afternoon. A dry backdoor front is expected to move through Saturday evening and overnight, cooling temperatures back to near average, in the upper 50s to low 60s. Conditions will remain mild Monday into Tuesday as westerly flow transitions southwesterly. Depending on the track of the low off the west coast middle of next week, the region could get into a pattern of daily afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms. Currently there are low chances for precipitation across south- central MT Tuesday into Wednesday. There is still uncertainty at this time, so watch the forecast to see how this system progresses. TS .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Strong northwesterly winds will decrease this evening. Winds are still expected to gust into the 20s kts through 06z Friday along the Dakotas border. Winds turn southerly Friday with most locations gusting into the 20s kts. Torgerson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 030/063 046/072 043/061 038/067 042/066 043/060 043/062 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 12/W LVM 028/069 039/072 038/061 036/069 041/066 039/060 038/060 00/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 01/B 21/B 12/W HDN 025/065 032/074 039/064 036/068 038/068 040/063 040/065 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 22/W MLS 026/061 035/071 044/060 040/067 042/067 043/062 044/064 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 4BQ 027/061 040/074 045/061 041/069 045/070 046/064 046/066 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 12/W BHK 023/057 039/075 043/062 036/067 041/070 043/066 042/067 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 12/W SHR 025/064 035/076 040/062 035/068 040/069 041/064 041/065 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 22/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  525 FXUS64 KCRP 151849 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 149 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Cold front passage Friday, leading to widespread breezy conditions through Saturday and low to moderate chances for rain Friday morning (20-40%) - Elevated fire risk Friday afternoon across the Rio Grande Plains - Below-normal temperatures in store Saturday and Sunday, and back to seasonal temps by mid-week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The main event is within reach. The much advertised and anticipated cold front is forecast to move through South Texas Friday. The northerly wind shift is anticipated during the overnight hours but the quick increase in surface wind speeds will occur during the morning commute and into mid-morning. These winds then quickly increase to gale conditions over the bays and open Gulf waters, prompting the upgrade to a Gale Warning. Inland, wind gusts throughout Friday afternoon/evening have a 30-50% chance of exceeding 40 mph (and lingering longer for those along the Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads). As such, a Wind Advisory has been issued to begin Friday morning, and ending across the Brush Country at 7 PM Friday, across the Coastal Plains at 1 AM Saturday, and on the barrier islands 1 PM Saturday. The winds in combination with RH values dropping to near or below 30% across the Rio Grande Plains Friday afternoon, but this will be limited to the late afternoon. As of now, no fire headline is anticipated, but one will be reconsidered this evening. With a cold front, one usually wonders if there will be precipitation tagging along. However, with this specific set up, much of the upper-level energy will remain north and east of the Red River. Additionally, a weak coastal trough is surprisingly advecting relatively-drier air towards the coast through Friday afternoon. While surface convergence ahead of the front would spark more widespread showers, it's looking like the spatial coverage of any showers will be more isolated and generally will be limited to before noon. For that reason, Friday night football games will see most bleachers drying out by game time and quite the struggle for kickers given any possible crosswind factors! With respect to temperatures, this will not be a sudden drop in temperatures with the increase in wind speed. It'll take some time to drop the dewpoint temperatures in the afternoon, but by the time folks start heading out to Friday night outdoor activities, the drop in temperature will be more noticeable (especially given the breezy conditions). That said, the highs will likely occur early Friday morning, and generally stay in the mid- to upper-70s Friday afternoon. Saturday morning, low temperatures will bottom out in the 50s (60s along the immediate coastline). The last time we had lows below 60F was back on May 3rd! Temperatures climb to the low to mid- 70s Saturday afternoon as winds decrease. If that wasn't enough, we're also monitoring coastal flooding concerns. While latest guidance puts high tide cycles between 1.3- 1.5 ft above MSL, even the wave energy won't be persistent enough to push wave periods above 8-9 seconds and thus not quite the runup Gulf beaches saw last week. All this to say, our first front will be a welcomed change to some, but treacherous for our mariners. Looking beyond Saturday, below- normal temperatures stick around Sunday with a more easterly wind component by mid-week and temperatures climbing towards the 90s thanks to building upper-level ridge influence. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Mostly VFR conditions will prevail throughthe TAF cycle, with the exception being with CIGs brought on by a cold front's rain chances. These will be limited to 11-15Z. Winds will quickly increase from light and variable to N'ly at 20-30KT gusting as high as 35KT. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal waters Friday, shifting winds to the north-northeast and increasing to near gale (BF 7) with frequent gusts to gale (BF 8) by late Friday afternoon and continuing through early Saturday afternoon. Overnight Friday into Saturday, seas increase to 8-13 ft. A Gale Warning is in effect Friday through Saturday afternoon. Winds will relax from nearshore to offshore through Saturday afternoon, becoming a moderate northeast breeze by Sunday. Seas decrease to below 7 ft by Sunday morning. Rain chances increase 30-70% ahead of the cold front then diminish in the wake of the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the remainder of the day. However, a strong cold front Friday morning will bring a strong north to northeast wind and drier conditions to South Texas through Friday afternoon. There may be a brief window Friday afternoon when RH values drop to critical levels while winds are still strong, leading to elevated or critical fire weather conditions, which may warrant a Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning, but confidence is low that this will occur. RH values begin to increase early Friday evening decreasing the threat. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend along with winds becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 73 77 57 73 / 10 20 0 0 Victoria 70 75 53 74 / 10 20 0 0 Laredo 72 74 56 73 / 0 40 0 0 Alice 72 76 55 73 / 10 30 0 0 Rockport 75 81 59 76 / 10 20 0 0 Cotulla 68 74 52 72 / 20 30 0 0 Kingsville 73 77 56 72 / 10 20 0 0 Navy Corpus 76 78 60 74 / 10 30 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ229>231-239- 240. Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ232>234-241>247-342>344-346-347. Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ345- 442-443-447. GM...Gale Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231- 232-236-237. Gale Warning from 7 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ250- 255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...AE/82 AVIATION...AE/82  677 FXUS63 KEAX 151853 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 153 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower activity comes to an end across the area by this evening. - An initial cold front moves through the area this afternoon, followed by a more significant push of cold air later tonight, quickly dropping temperatures below seasonal norms. - Near to below freezing temperatures possible over northern areas late Friday night into Saturday morning. - A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Pattern evolution will be the name of the game today and to end the work-week, which in turn will result in a significant cool down. The mid-upper level large scale pattern across CONUS is generally ridge-trough-ridge, including a pair of troughs moving across portions of the central CONUS. The southern stream trough continues to come off the Colorado Front Range and has more recently become an open wave. This has pushed a surface low over the CWA early this afternoon, too aiding in pushing majority of shower activity out of the CWA. Its associated cold front has begun to move into NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and will begin to cool down the area. Unfortunately though, a good amount of low-level moisture remains behind the front, and will allow dreary and overcast conditions to continue through much or all of the remaining day-time period. Scattered showers to isolated general thunder will remain possible near and ahead of this frontal passage as well. More significant changes come to the area as the northern stream mid- level trough digs out of the Canadian Plains and into the Northern Plains. Along with its associated surface low, a secondary cold front will drop through the area this evening and overnight. It will include a strong push of drier air and CAA, rapidly plunging the area back below seasonal norms for mid-October. Hi-res guidance, such as HRRR/RAP, have noted a period of enhanced wind gusts with this push (strong subsidence), including run-to-run depictions of gusts into the low-40s mph between 01z-06z this evening. NBM did come in notably lighter during this window, have blended in HRRR/RAP solutions to signal the increasingly likely period of enhanced wind gusts. By Friday morning, the much cooler conditions will have settled across the area with expected lows in the lower 40s for most. Skies may initially be on the clear side, but an area of stratus may drop through as the core of the northern stream mid- level trough passes through the region. Breezy conditions will continue through the day Friday as well with NW to N winds around 20 mph and gusts 25 to 35 mph. Ongoing CAA will also limit warming through the day, with most forecast in the low 50s. Of note, did drop Friday highs a couple degrees below initial NBM, in conjunction with neighbors, to blend in ongoing colder hi-res guidance. Cloud cover extent and duration will ultimately be the determinant there. Friday night into Saturday morning, potential for the first freeze for NW/N portions of the CWA as skies clear and winds go light to calm across the area. Given the cooler trend in guidance, have coordinated a Freeze Watch for portions of the area with western and northern neighbors. Through the weekend, eastward departure of the mid-level trough will allow height rises and ridging to begin to spread across the central CONUS. This keeps the sensible weather abundantly quiet and on the seasonably cool to seasonable, but warming side. Expect temperatures to rise each day, yielding mid-upper 50s Saturday and mid-upper 60s Sunday. The start of the work week will see the weekend warming trend persist with continued southerly surface flow and gradually warming 850mb temps. While mid-level flow will be more southwesterly in nature and a Baja California mid-level cutoff low gets absorbed into the flow, precipitation chances remain minimal through at least mid- week among the majority of members within ensemble guidance. Prevailing consensus remains for temperatures to rise back toward the mid to upper 70s through mid-week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Showers are clearing out ahead of a cold front that will push through the forecast area this afternoon, with CIGS lifting to MVFR and eventually VFR after sunset as dry air rushes into western MO. Winds will rapidly shift to northwesterly at 12 to 18 kts, gusting to 25 to 30+ kts, this afternoon through the overnight hours as the front passes. Could see some borderline MVFR tomorrow after 15Z as clouds wrap back around into central Missouri. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ001>007-011>016-020. KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ025-102. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Curtis/Shaw  827 FXUS63 KDDC 151856 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 156 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A freeze watch is in effect for Friday night into Saturday morning. - Cool and windy weather is expected through Friday, with below freezing readings and lighter winds by Saturday morning. - A warming trend is forecast Sunday and into next week, with highs near 80 by Tuesday or Wednesday. - The next chance of rain is late next week or next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure will build across the high plains through Saturday morning, with brisk north winds at 15-30 mph. There may be a lull in the winds this evening with the loss of daytime mixing. Highs in the 50s look on track for Friday. As surface high pressure settles across the high plains Friday night, clear skies and light winds will allow for strong radiational cooling, with temperatures falling into the 20s in far western Kansas and lower 30s in south central Kansas. Thus, a freeze watch was issued for all of central and southwest Kansas with the exception of Barber County. Surface high pressure is forecast to slowly move off to the east this weekend, with a warming trend expected; and this warmup will persist next week. A weak upper level trough is predicted to approach the high plains by early Monday; but given the lack of low to mid level moisture, rain is not expected. Highs are forecast to reach near or above 80 by the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. There will be a very slow return of moisture next week and into next weekend as a strong upper level trough amplifies over the western USA, resulting in lee troughing and south winds. However, the rich moisture return will not occur until the upper level trough gets closer. Rain chances increase by next Friday and Saturday as the trough approaches the high plains. But even then there is uncertainty in how much rich moisture will make it into western Kansas. Given that the southern and central plains will be in the warm sector, with no source for cold air initially, it remains to be seen if enough potential instability will be present for thunderstorms. If the system slows down and colder air does progress southward ahead of it, then rain chances would be higher; but this is a low probability scenario. Bottom line is that the conservative route on rain chances seems appropriate given the uncertainty. And we are getting to that dry time of year when a special upper level pattern is required for widespread rain on the high plains. This is due to the stronger westerly momentum across the Rockies that tends to shunt moisture to the east of here. Probability wise, the grand ensemble indicates only 10-25% chances for .5" or greater of rain by next Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Drier air was filtering into southwest Kansas in the wake of a cold front. This will continue through the period, resulting in CIGS rising and clearing this evening and overnight. Expect a continuation of 15-20 kt north winds through the period, except for a possible lull later this evening with the loss of daytime mixing. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Finch  867 FXUS63 KGID 151857 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 157 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Rain has mostly cleared out of our area setting up a drier through next week. -A cold front will move through the area this afternoon bringing gusty winds lasting through the evening/overnight hours and into the daytime Friday. -Cold temperatures overnight Friday could bring the year's first freeze. -Temperatures begin a warming pattern over the weekend with highs in the mid 60s-70s next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain from this morning is moving out of our area to the northeast with drier conditions now expected for most of the area, though some sprinkles could still fall in our northwestern areas. A cold front currently over the Sandhills will move southeast over our area this afternoon bringing steady north-northwesterly winds that could gust 30-40 MPH and clearing the clouds. While temps cool slightly behind the front, the steady winds prevents the temps from falling underneath the frosting threshold overnight for the majority of the area, with lows staying in the upper 30s-low 40s. A few portions in our north and west do drop into the frost thresholds, however the steady winds will prevent frost from forming. The steady north-northwesterly winds continue through the daytime Friday bringing cool air down from the north and keeping highs in the low-mid 50s. Northern and eastern portions of the area will have some clouds in the morning but they clear in the afternoon. After sunset the winds begin to subside and with clear skies, temperatures are able to cool much more efficiently than the night before. Widespread lows in the upper 20s-low 30s are possible which would bring the first frost/freeze to the area. Southern portions of the area, especially north central KS, could stay warm enough to prevent a full freeze however, most models keep temps in the 30-34 range so the entire area is included in a Freeze Watch. The upper level troughing that had brought the cooler air to the area begins to move east and a slight ridging pattern begins to setup into the weekend. As the ridging pattern builds into the area, temperatures will begin to warm again starting Saturday with highs reaching back into the upper 50s-low 60s. Temperatures continue to warm into next week with highs reaching the upper 60s-70s starting Sunday and could even flirt with 80 degrees in north central Kansas mid-week. Also, as the ridging persists over the area precip chances will remain low, though some models have chances returning mid-week. Aside from the low mid-week precip chances the area will largely remain dry through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: MVFR ceilings to begin the period will clear to VFR ceilings starting around 22Z. While the ceilings will remain VFR for KEAR, models suggest lower level clouds for KGRI around dawn dropping ceilings to MVFR levels from around 12Z-16Z before rising back to VFR levels. A cold front moving through the area in the afternoon hours will bring steady north-northeasterly winds gusting 25-30kts through the TAF period. Additionally, as the front passes strong winds in the 1000-2000ft AGL creates low-level wind shear (LLWS) starting around 12Z and continuing overnight before subsiding around 12Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGrew AVIATION...McGrew  853 FXUS64 KJAN 151857 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 157 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant threat for fire danger conditions continue through the weekend. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for Friday. - A significant dry cold front will bring gusty northwest winds, worsened fire danger and wildfire concerns to the area tomorrow. - Very little, if any, rainfall is expected through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Through Tonight: Dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures will persist. There remains efficient afternoon mixing/low humidity into critical levels (25 to 35 percent range) for continued Elevated fire danger through early evening. High pressure remains in control and afternoon highs today are topping out in the upper 80s F to lower 90s F before dropping into the lower 60s F tonight. /DC/86/ Friday through midweek: A Fall, dry cold front will move across the area tomorrow. An upper low currently over the Rockies will phase with deepening trough axis/upper jet diving into central Canada and southeast into the northern Plains to Mid MS Valley. This will help an amplified meridional and positively tilted trough. Stout, dry cold front will drive dewpoints falling into the mid to upper 30s (36-45 F). Cannot rule out a rogue shower but overall majority areas will remain dry. Cool down remains likely this weekend. Highs will be seasonably warm Friday (72-78 F in the northwestern half of the area, 79-91 F in the southeastern half), before falling dramatically overnight with most locations falling into the 40s F north of highway 84 and to near 50 F along and south of that corridor. With continued drought stressed vegetation, this strong gusty front will likely increase fire danger concerns. The cold front will move into the Delta around daybreak Friday, Interstate 20 around midday and out of the area by early evening. 1030-1040 mb surface high building will build east out of the lee side of the Rockies through the Mid West, leading to 6-8 mb pressure gradient and resultant gusty gradient wind of 20-25 mph sustained and wind gusts reaching 30-35 mph at times. Elevated Fire Weather conditions will persist through the weekend, peeking into Significant ranges Friday when a Red Flag warning will be in effect. A Fire Weather Watch was also issued for Saturday as gusts and low humidity will remain. As the trough digs across the Eastern Seaboard and cuts off the Atlantic seaboard, ridge over the western Gulf will amplify, with the axis over the ArkLaTex. Seasonable, cooler fall temperatures will build areawide into Saturday and Sunday (highs lower 70s F Saturday and through the 70s F Sunday. Lows dip into middle 40s F north of Interstate 20 and upper 40s F to the south). Quiet and dry weather will persist next week, with an Omega block pattern developing (trough over the Baja California and southwest US and another just off the Carolina coast). Low level return flow and deep dry moisture profiles will lead to moderating temperatures (low 80s F early week to mid to upper 80s F by late week) and lows becoming more seasonable. With continued drought, stressed vegetation and afternoon humidity nearing critical levels by mid week (25 to 35 percent), fire danger will likely persist. Additional fire weather graphics will likely be necessary as we approach next week. /DC/86/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 As of 1742Z, all TAF sites are reporting VFR conditions. VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the period. By 09Z, southern TAF sites (KHBG, KPIB, and KHEZ) will start to see ceilings and visibilities drop to IFR/LIFR status due to low stratus andpatch dense fog, with VFR ceilings elsewhere. Poor flying conditions will prevail across south MS through 14Z Friday. After 14Z, ceilings across southern sites will begin to gradually improve to VFR. Winds be to the south through the TAF period. By 13Z Friday winds will begin to shift to the north as a dry cold front pushes through our area. Gusty northerly winds will prevail across the area Friday afternoon with gusts in excess of 30 kts. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 63 81 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 61 85 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 62 78 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 61 90 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 64 80 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 65 70 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 63 73 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074. LA...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ074-075. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ LP/LP/CR  928 FXUS63 KARX 151859 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 159 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues the entire area for much of the today with rainfall totals of around 0.5 to 1.5". No impacts are expected from this rainfall. - Breezy northwest winds with a good (40-70%) chance for spotty showers on Friday morning and afternoon. There is potential (40-60%) for gusts to reach 45 mph, primarily west of the Mississippi River. - Temperatures become much colder Friday night and Saturday morning with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. A freeze is very likely (70- 100%), particularly north of Interstate 94, where values may dip below 28. A Freeze Watch is now in effect across the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain continues into this evening As expected, rain is ongoing across the region early this afternoon ahead of a southern stream wave currently moving over NE/KS. Rain amounts have been light, generally around less than 0.5" over the past 6 hours. Expect these rain rates to continue through the evening so some spots could get up to 1.5", including morning rain, but most will end up with 0.5-1" as their final totals. Breezy with spotty showers for Friday Friday, after the southern stream wave phases with the northern stream trough currently over Lake Winnipeg, surface low to our east will deepen considerably and temperatures aloft in our area cool rapidly. A strong surface gradient will be present with pressure rises near 2 mb/hr and a northerly 30-40 knot 850mb jet will move over the area. The end result will be breezy conditions with potential (40-60% per 15.13z NBM) for a 45 mph gust, particularly west of the Mississippi valley, just a bit too low of confidence for issuance of a Wind Advisory this afternoon. As for rain, rapidly cooling temperatures aloft will lead to steep low level lapse rates with moist conditions within much of the boundary layer. This should result in spotty open cellular convection across the forecast area but, with shallow updrafts ending below the -10C level, am not expecting thunder. Downdrafts look to augment the risk for gusts at the surface due to the aforementioned 35-40 knot winds present at 850mb. Freeze very likely Friday night into Saturday morning Post frontal surface high builds into KS Friday night with this surface ridge extending northeast into WI. Clear skies and light winds should lead to temperatures tumbling rapidly after sunset. Guidance probabilities point strongly to an areawide freeze (at least 40/70/70% percent in 15.12z REFS/LREF/NBM). Since the locally defined growing season is nearly over but still ongoing, the event is within 48 hours, and confidence is at least 50%, the criteria for a Freeze Watch has clearly been reached so have issued one for the entire CWA. For areas north of I-94, a killing freeze with temps below 28 may (30-70%, highest in Taylor County) occur as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ongoing precipitation at 15.18Z TAF issuance will be immediate IFR-MVFR impact, gradually bettering impacts through the late afternoon. A temporary reprieve in ceilings possible shortly after 15.18Z TAF issuance expected to cease by early evening. Therefore, have kept lower ceilings with a TEMPO VFR at KLSE for the time being. Precipitation shifts east of the forecast area through the late evening with strong north-northwest winds ushering in overnight. Strong winds increase through Friday morning across the area. Precipitation chances have slightly increased for Friday morning at both TAF sites (KLSE/KRST) although not enough to be included in FM group at either site at the current forecast area. Couldsee some decreased (MVFR-IFR) visibilities where heaviest rainfall sets up. Strong winds eventually weaken after 15.18Z TAF terminus through Friday evening into the nighttime hours. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ferguson AVIATION...JAR