977 FXUS63 KLOT 152005 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 305 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A fall storm system will move through the area through Friday bringing periods of rain showers and gusty northwesterly winds (the latter primarily on Friday). - Frosty and near-freezing conditions favored away from Lake Michigan Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday night. - After the brief period of chilly weather, there will be a warming trend this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Through Friday night: An expansive fall storm system centered over the mid- Mississippi Valley is lifting a warm front into Illinois and Indiana this afternoon. Deep atmospheric moisture is being drawn northward ahead of this system, yielding precipitable water (PWAT) values up to 1.75–2.0 inches—near record highs for this time of year. This moisture will support narrow corridors of torrential rain late this afternoon and evening, particularly where convective elements train east-northeastward. While not everyone will experience torrential downpours, scattered to numerous rain showers are expected area-wide through early this evening. The threat for isolated thunderstorms remains low, but with the primary MUCAPE reservoir lifting across east-central Illinois into northern Indiana by early evening, any thunderstorm activity should remain primarily south of I-80. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out through early evening, but that threat will be confined even farther south (generally south of a line from Gibson City, IL to Remington, IN), aligning well with the SPC Day 1 outlook. The primary low-pressure system will track directly over northern Illinois early this evening, then deepen as it shifts northeast into lower Michigan tonight. Expect a brief period of lower ceilings and reduced visibility for a few hours as the low moves overhead. Conditions will improve rapidly later tonight following a sharp cold front. In its wake, northwest winds will become gusty (30–35 mph) overnight, while strong cold air advection drops temperatures into the 40s to low 50s by early Friday morning. Breezy conditions (gusts of 35 to 40 mph) will persist through Friday due to strong pressure rises behind the departing low and ahead of a 1035+ mb surface high building in from the Plains. Even stronger northerly winds (~45 mph) are projected over southern Lake Michigan Friday afternoon and evening. Onshore flow will push some of these higher winds inland across far northern Porter County, Indiana, where a Wind Advisory is in effect from 1:00 PM to 10:00 PM CDT Friday. Much cooler weather is expected Friday, with temperatures hovering in the low to mid-50s as the coldest airmass of the season arrives under a sharp trough moving across the western Great Lakes. Steepening low- to mid-level lapse rates will support a diurnal increase in scattered showers, especially Friday afternoon. While showers will remain hit-or-miss across interior northern Illinois, favorable lake-effect conditions will bring widespread showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms to southern Lake Michigan and adjacent shorelines Friday afternoon and evening, supported by lake-induced equilibrium heights exceeding 20,000 feet. KJB Friday night into Saturday: The progressive pattern continues as the surface low departs and surface high pressure moves toward the middle Mississippi River Valley. Lingering lake-effect clouds and persistent cold air advection will keep winds slower to diminish Friday night across eastern Illinois and northwest Indiana. Farther west, clearing skies and light winds near the approaching surface ridge axis across northwest Illinois will set the stage for a potential freeze. In collaboration with WFOs MKX and DVN, a Freeze Watch was issued for Boone, Winnebago, and Ogle counties, where lows near 30°F are expected early Saturday morning. Widespread frost is also likely to extend farther east and south, where Frost Advisories may eventually be needed, potentially reaching as far east as some of the western Chicago suburbs. Saturday will bring full sunshine and weak winds as high pressure moves directly overhead, though the chilly start will cap afternoon highs in the 50s. Saturday night will be chilly again, with the coldest temperatures favored east of I-55 beneath the lightest winds near the high's center, likely requiring additional frost headlines. Southwesterly return flow will establish by Sunday on the backside of the departing high, initiating a warming trend into early next week. KJB/Borchardt && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Main Concerns: - Periods of rain/showers and drizzle into this evening with associated VSBY restrictions to IFR to MVFR at times - CIGs lowering to IFR this afternoon, with a possible period of LIFR this evening, and then returning to MVFR later tonight - Gusty west-northwest winds tonight becoming north-northwest on Friday - Scattered showers late Friday morning through the afternoon A strengthening storm system will affect the region through Friday. Rain showers streaming northeast into this evening will include potentially moderate rates at times, but also areas of drizzle during lighter rainfall rates. Any TS are likely to remain south of the terminals. As surface low pressure tracks overhead this evening, that conceptually should support the lowest flight categories, followed by improvement overnight. Winds will shift from southeast this afternoon to southwest early this evening with the surface low passage and then gusty west-northwest in the late evening and overnight as the low tracks across lower MI. The direction will further veer to north-northwest (320-350 deg) late Friday morning through the afternoon. Gusts will most frequently be in the 25-30 kt range, though sporadic gusts to ~35 kt are plausible Friday afternoon. An upper disturbance will yield scattered showers, developing as early as prior to midday Friday, peaking in coverage in the early to mid afternoon, and then waning towards/by sunset Friday. VSBY restrictions are possible if these showers directly affect the terminals, though deferred this subsequent updates. Castro && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The forecast remains on track with the fall storm system set to impact the area through Friday. Over the next 18 to 36 hours, the first fall storm system of the season will move through the Great Lakes. As the low lifts into northern IL early this evening, breezy east-southeasterly winds will create waves generally of 3 to 5 feet along the Illinois shoreline. Westerly winds will increase in magnitude later this evening on the immediate backside of the system and behind a cold front with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 kt and a few gale force gusts to 35 kt. Friday afternoon, a secondary cold front will surge down Lake Michigan leading to a change in wind direction to northerly and rapid increase in wind speeds. Sustained winds of 30 to 35 kt with frequent gusts to 40 kt are expected, with locally higher gusts in excess of 45 kt possible on the west side of lake effect rain showers. The strongest wind gusts are expected Friday afternoon and evening before gradually tapering after midnight early Saturday morning. A Gale Warning is in effect from 1 PM to 1 AM Friday night into Saturday morning. Finally, strong lake induced instability may support waterspouts near lake effect showers Friday afternoon and evening. Borchardt/KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008. IN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Friday for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  524 FXUS65 KABQ 152010 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 210 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A backdoor cold front will sweep south and west across the area today, creating strong north winds across eastern NM and strong east canyon or gap winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys by this evening. - The first freeze of the season is forecast late tonight into Friday morning for areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, and Moriarty. Even colder conditions are forecast Friday night. - Rain chances return Monday and continue through much of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong backdoor cold front will push southwestward across the state this afternoon and evening as a large area of high pressure builds south along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. Meanwhile, an upper-level low will develop over the Desert Southwest before traversing back toward the Baja Peninsula. The resulting tightening pressure gradient will produce a significant easterly wind event across much of the region that will last through the day on Friday. Winds have already started increasing across northeastern portions of New Mexico and will continue to spread into the central mountain ranges, Rio Grande Valley, and eastern slopes of the high terrain this evening. Strong to potentially damaging gusts are expected in the usual canyon and gap wind corridors along and immediately west of the central mountain chain, as well as near the mouths of canyons and across portions of the South Central Highlands and upper Tularosa Valley. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for those locations. A much colder airmass will accompany this boundary, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season so far for much of the region. Temperatures will fall sharply tonight, and a Freeze Warning has been issued for areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, and Moriarty. Strong easterly winds will continue through Friday, especially along and west of the central mountain ranges. Afternoon highs on Friday will range from the low 50s to low 60s, roughly 5-20 degrees below average! Additional freezing temperatures are becoming increasingly likely Friday night into Saturday morning as winds begin to ease up and skies remain clear, key conditions for efficient radiational cooling. A widespread Freeze Watch was issued for much of the region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Dry conditions will prevail Saturday as the aforementioned upper low propagates toward the Baja Peninsula and ridging develops over the Southwest. High temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year through the weekend. By Saturday evening into Sunday, the upper low begins to weaken and may begin to lift to the the northeast, allowing for some moisture to return. Overall forcing is minimal, so precipitation changes are on the lower side. However, the greatest chances will be focused over western New Mexico where the low's eventual track and the greatest moisture advection will likely set up. Once we move into early next week, attention turns to a strong Pacific low pressure system that will dig across the West Coast before traversing inland. Increasing moisture ahead of this system should support a gradual return of precipitation chances early to midweek. Forecast timing and placement of this system remains uncertain, but current guidance suggests Thursday/Friday could be the most favorable day for more widespread precipitation. Details will continue to be refined the closer we get to the event. Cooler temperatures are still expected to persist, and snow will be possible across the highest peaks if temperatures and eventual system track remain favorable. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No significant changes this TAF period. VFR conditions will persist through the cycle. A strong backdoor front will progress from northeast to the southwest this afternoon and into the evening hours. This boundary will bring a wind shift and gusty conditions to central and eastern NM. To note, a strong east canyon wind will develop early this evening at KABQ behind the boundary and result in gusts of at least 40 knots but as high as 50 knots. An Airport Weather Warning will be required. Gusty winds will continue overnight and into the morning on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next week. A strong backdoor front will push southwestward across the state this afternoon and evening, bringing windy conditions and notably colder temperatures. Sustained winds will range roughly between 25-35 mph with gusts upwards of 40-50 mph. As a result of yesterday's cold front and the back door front today, significantly drier air is in the cards through Saturday, with minimum RH ranging from the teens to 20s. Humidity will be back on the upswing Sunday into Monday as a weak Pacific low approaches from the southwest and advects tropical moisture to the region, but with low chances for wetting precipitation. A more significant Pacific low will impact the region from mid through late next week with higher moisture content and good chances for wetting precipitation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 39 64 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 28 65 26 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 34 58 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 34 64 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 35 60 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 36 62 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 38 58 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 35 57 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 39 64 32 64 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 45 69 37 66 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 29 60 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 37 58 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 33 58 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 29 56 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 23 48 22 56 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 20 51 12 61 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 28 59 22 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 28 55 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 37 63 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 32 59 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 31 61 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 43 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 45 63 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 44 65 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 42 63 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 44 66 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 42 64 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 43 65 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 42 64 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 45 65 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 62 34 64 / 0 0 0 0Rio Rancho...................... 42 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 45 65 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 56 30 59 / 0 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 38 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 35 58 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 35 59 19 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 33 53 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 36 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 42 57 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 35 50 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 29 50 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 31 55 22 66 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 32 58 20 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 32 57 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 32 55 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 35 57 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 42 62 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 41 60 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 43 60 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 42 56 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 45 58 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 45 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 50 63 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 41 56 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 39 53 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NMZ201-217>220-222>225-228>237-239-241. Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ227-228-230-231. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ222-223- 228>230. High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ219-220-224-225. Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ235-236. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...23  694 FXPQ50 PGUM 152015 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 615 AM ChST Fri Oct 16 2026 .Marianas Update... Tropical Storm Champi continues to approach. Most models now take it close to Guam, so they appear to be converging on a solution. It's satellite presentation has been improving, therefore it either is already intensifying, or will soon begin to. A lightning burst near the center could be another sign in that direction. So went ahead and worded the recent TCP that this general track would take it close to Guam. This will be one to keep a close eye on. && .Hydrology Update... GEFS gives Guam especially about 6 inches of rain. Considering the averaging of the ensemble members and the fairly low resolution of 55 km, the amounts (especially localized amounts) could be much higher. Therefore, went ahead and issued a Flood Watch for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Also coordinated with the National Water Center to update the Flood Hazard Outlook, maintaining Tinian and Saipan as Limited, but making Guam and Rota be Considerable. Watch for Flash Flood Warnings possibly starting on Sunday. && .Tropical Systems Update... 29W has been upgraded from a tropical depression to Tropical Storm Champi. The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center Advisory showed Champi with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The latest satellite fix gives a location at 11.6N, 156.5E, which is about 340 miles north- northwest of Pohnpei and 800 miles east of Guam. Champi is currently moving west at 12 mph towards the Marianas. It is expected to maintain this general course towards the Marianas with a slight increase in forward speed through Saturday. Champi is visibly intensifying this morning as large convective bursts with significant lightning are visible near the center. A large outer band of numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms has grown along the western half of Champi. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are on the eastern half but beginning to fill in as wind shear has decreased. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance are now showing the center passing over the Marianas passage sometime Sunday morning. Most tracks take the developing cyclone directly through the southern Marianas, though individual model tracks range from passing to the south of Guam, to as far north as Saipan, potentially as a well-developed typhoon (sustained winds 74+ mph). Uncertainty is decreasing in the eventual track and but remains high, particularly with the intensity upon passage through the Marianas. Residents of the Marianas are urged to begin making preparations, stay informed, and monitor for updates from the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, as well as local emergency management. For more information on TD Champi, see bulletins issued by JTWC under WMO header WTPN32 PGTW and by the NWS under WMO headers WTPQ32 PGUM and WTPQ82 PGUM. && .Eastern Micronesia Update... For Majuro no significant updates were needed. For Kosrae, the Small Craft Advisory was expired due to ASCAT, and weather station data both showed winds below thresholds. For Pohnpei, model guidance suggested slightly higher winds than previously forecasted. Otherwise, the forecast packages remains in good shape. && .Western Micronesia Update... Palau, Yap, and Chuuk remain in good shape. Drier conditions are expected for Palau and Yap. TS Champi has been producing a mostly cloudy skies and light shower at Chuuk, this is expected to continue to degrade as the day passes. Otherwise, the forecast packages remains in good shape. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for tonight through Sunday for Chuuk. && .Prev discussion... /issued 734 PM ChST Thu Oct 15 2026/ Marianas Synopsis... Gentle northeasterlies prevail across the Marianas, with mostly clear skies observed on satellite imagery. Tropical Depression Champi (29W) begins its movement toward the Marianas. Discussion... A mostly drier regime is expected to continue across the Marianas through Friday night, followed by quickly deteriorating conditions thereafter as Tropical Depression Champi (29W) continues to intensify and potentially develop into a typhoon prior to making its way across the region. The onset of tropical storm conditions is expected beginning late Saturday night or early Sunday morning, with potential onset of typhoon conditions later on Sunday. It continues to remain possible for said conditions to develop anywhere in the southern Marianas between Guam and Saipan. 15 to 25 mph northeast winds are expected to increase considerably beginning Saturday evening, with west tropical storm force winds of 60 to 70 mph with gusts to 100 mph possible come Sunday. The system is not expected to linger in the general area for too long, as its forward speed is expected to allow winds and showers to begin tapering down beginning Sunday night, with a chance for winds to fall below damaging levels as early as Monday. After, a ridge along the leeside of passing Champi is expected to move in, with a return of low-end patchy showers expected through the first half of next week. Marine... A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, and Tinian and Saipan waters. Gentle to moderate northeasterlies will prevail across the Marianas tonight through Friday night, followed by quickly deteriorating sea and surf conditions as TD Champi makes its way across the Marianas, potentially as a Typhoon Saturday night through Sunday night. As such, seas are expected to quickly rise above 20 feet during closest passage of 29W, producing dangerous seas possibly into Monday. Surf conditions are also expected to become hazardous, then quickly becoming dangerous and life threatening beginning Saturday night. Depending on the exact location of 29W as it moves through the Marianas, inundation of 2 to 4 feet, possibly higher, is possible along most reefs of the Marianas. Hydrology... As Tropical Depression Champi makes its way across the Marianas, it is expected to produce 5 to 8 inches of rainfall between Saturday and Monday, with localized amounts upwards of 12 inches possible near the center. As the rain forecast has remained quite consistent, and such rainfall amounts posing a flash flood threat, a Flood Watch is likely to be issued over the next day or so for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Tropical Systems... At 4 PM, Tropical Depression Champi (29W) was centered 945 miles east of Guam, 925 miles east-southeast of Rota, 915 miles east-southeast of Tinian, and 910 miles east-southeast of Saipan. Champi was moving west-northwest at 13 mph. It is expected to make a turn toward the west, or possibly, west-southwest over the next couple of days as it strengthens. Champi is expected to approach the Marianas over the weekend, with tropical storm force winds possible as early as Saturday evening. Typhoon force winds are possible Sunday morning. As TD Champi continues to strengthen, the expected movement and intensity as it approaches the Marianas will become more clear. The latest forecast track takes Champi through the Rota channel, just north of Andersen AFB. It needs to be emphasized, this is a preliminary track, and definitely subject to change as time progresses. Based on the uncertainty with actual track, a Typhoon Watch was issued for the Marianas. Residents of the Mariana Islands should continue to monitor forecast for any changes in expected track and/or intensity as Champi approaches. For more information on TD Champi, see bulletins issued by JTWC under WMO header WTPN32 PGTW and by the NWS under WMO headers WTPQ32 PGUM and WTPQ82 PGUM. Tropical Depression 28W is centered 625 milesnorthwest of Saipan near 23N140E, moving west at 7 mph. 28W continues to slowly weaken and is expected to dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. For more information on TD 28W, see bulletins issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW, and by the National Weather Service (NWS) under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. Eastern Micronesia... Kosrae: Tropical Depression Champi (29W) is still having impacts on the weather at Pohnpei and Kosrae. For Kosrae, although the heavier showers have moved off to the northwest, the overnight altimetry pass showed 15 to 20 knot winds just east-northeast of Kosrae. Given that 29W continues to organize and strengthen, sustained winds just under 22 knots are likely with frequent gusts above that. Therefore, we extended the Small craft Advisory through 3 PM Friday. Seas of 6 to 8 feet and gentle to fresh winds will continue through this time, before gradually subsiding. Pohnpei: The heavier rainfall has moved off to your north and west, but scattered showers remain possible through Friday. Similar to Kosrae, frequent gusts to 30 knots remain likely. As such, your Small Craft Advisory also remains in effect through 3 PM Friday. Seas of 7 to 9 feet and gentle to fresh winds will continue through this time, before gradually subsiding. Majuro: Although you have no headlines in place, the monsoon trough located just north of you continues to produce scattered showers. This looks to continue through Friday night, before shower coverage decreases to isolated for the weekend. Winds will be light to gentle with seas of 4 to 6 feet. Western Micronesia... Chuuk: The main changes to the forecast were to hoist a Small Craft Advisory at Chuuk, beginning 5 PM Friday and continuing through 5 PM Sunday. As Tropical Depression Champi (29W) continues to strengthen into a tropical storm over the next 12 to 24 hours, an expanding wind field will commence. Sustained gentle to moderate winds will become moderate to fresh on Saturday. For now, we have frequent gusts to 30 kt as a start, but depending how the monsoon inflow band sets up, and how Champi evolves, this may need to be revisited. An increasing northeast to north swell meeting the southwest swell will add a layer of chop to the seas by early next week. Intra-island travel is highly discouraged from late Friday afternoon into early next week to account for this. As for precipitation, scattered showers will continue through at least the first part of the weekend, becoming isolated by early next week. Palau: Light to gentle winds will become gentle to moderate by Tuesday, with seas and surf building for the latter half of the week. Scattered oragraphically-induced showers may need to be added to the forecast Friday into Saturday, but for now we didn't include this as we want to see how the pattern reorientates as TD Champi (29W) evolved as it approaches the Marianas. Otherwise, isolated showers remain possible. Yap: The main story here is a northeast swell looks to arrive for the early to middle portion of next week, as Tropical Depression Champi (29W) continues to strengthen as it passes through and west of the Marianas. Otherwise, isolated showers remain possible. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for GUZ001. Typhoon Watch for GUZ001. MP...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MPZ001>003. Typhoon Watch for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Typhoon Watch for PMZ151>154. && $$ East and West Micronesia Update: Bowsher Marianas Update: Stanko Tropical Update: Ogle/stanko Marianas/Tropical: Montvila/Mesa East/West Micronesia: Doll Tropical: Kleeschulte  775 FXUS66 KSGX 152016 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 116 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Santa Ana winds expected today through Saturday, with the strongest and most widespread winds on Friday. Additionally, moderate to major HeatRisk is expected for coastal areas. Cooler conditions will spread inland Sunday as Santa Anas weaken, with greater cooling and chance of showers next Tuesday through next Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday, Oct 17...Mid-level low pressure has settled into western AZ and southeastern CA, with a strong surface high pressure in the northern Intermountain West. This has resulted in moderately to locally quite strong Santa Ana winds from the northeast. Fairly widespread offshore winds are broadly gusting 15 to 30 mph even towards some of the coastal areas (especially in Orange County), with gusts towards 25 to 40 mph along the foothills into the inland valleys, including the Inland Empire. Our typically gusty canyons and mountain passes are, as per usual, winning the gust- off with peak gusts 45 to 60 mph. The strong downward motion of these winds has lead to much warmer temperatures than yesterday from the foothills to the coast. In terms of change in temperature from yesterday, temperatures this afternoon are anywhere from 5 to 20 degrees warmer in this area, with highs from 80 to just above 90 degrees. While temperatures in the valleys and coastal regions are 5 to 15 degrees above average, temperatures in the mountains and deserts are actually below average thanks to the colder air mass moving into the region. This has also lead to lower humidity, with values generally 20-25% in the valleys/non-immediate coast and localized areas around 15-20%. Surface high pressure gradually moves southward into the Great Plains tonight into Friday as the mid-level low moves southwest. This will turn offshore winds from northeast to more due easterly, which will lead to stronger and more widespread winds for the east Inland Empire and San Diego and Orange counties Friday, while winds in the San Bernardino Mtn foothills into the northern IE will weaken slightly, though remain gusty. Winds will be in the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts 45 to 60 mph for foothills and inland valleys, while coastal areas will see gusts closer to 15 to up to about 30 mph. This will drive temperatures even warmer for Friday, especially for coastal regions. Low temperatures in this region will struggle to dip far below 70 degrees, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. This flow pattern will actually help to drag some moisture from the south/southeast into the region Friday, so unlike the typical Santa Ana pattern where stronger winds = drier conditions, humidity will actually increase slightly for Friday. This, along with recent substantial rainfall, will help temper the danger for fire weather, though conditions will be elevated to locally near critical for fire weather through Saturday. This moisture will also lead to increased cloud cover for Friday into Saturday, and even lead to the possibility of elevated storms late Friday into Saturday. The majority of precipitation will evaporate in the dry layer beneath the cloud, but there's about a 10% chance for some very light precipitation during this time period, mostly for the mountains/deserts and perhaps for far south-central/southeastern San Diego Co. There will be a little bit of elevated instability (MUCAPE ~100-300 J/kg) that could result in an isolated thunderstorm, but chances look pretty small (around 5%). Saturday, the central U.S. ridge and associated surface high weakens and shifts eastwards, and offshore winds will weaken, though they'll be breezy. Temperatures will decrease a few degrees. && .LONG TERM...Sunday, Oct 18 through Friday, Oct 23...As the high continues its eastward shuffle, winds continue to weaken late Saturday into Sunday, so while winds will be offshore Sunday morning, they will be much weaker. Winds will switch to onshore Sunday afternoon, bring additional cooling, a trend that will continue into Monday as weak low pressure hangs out in southern California. At least patchy marine layer low clouds will likely return Monday morning, resulting in patchy coastal fog. A large- scale, stronger mid- level low pressure system starts moving down from the Gulf of Alaska late Monday into Tuesday, bringing breezier onshore flow and even cooler temperatures for Tuesday, along with a chance for showers that will increase from north to south later Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Global weather models already have pretty good agreement on timing of the trough, with the large majority of ensemble members agreeing on widespread rain showers. There are some location differences in the trough placement which is leading to differences in how much precipitation exactly, but at this range precipitation is looking light to locally moderate. Temperatures will continue to decrease through Wed-Thu, with highs in the 60s-70s for the coastal basin/high deserts, 40-55 for the mountains, and mid 70s in the low deserts. Breezy onshore winds are likely for Tuesday into Wednesday in the usual areas (coastal waters, mountains and desert foothills). Keep your eye on the forecast this upcoming week. Models diverge Friday into next weekend, but general agreement is in some strength of large-scale mid-level troughing continuing, so while any precip will likely taper off by late next Thursday, temperatures look to remain in the cool to average zone through next week. && .AVIATION... 151830Z...SKC and VFR through Fri. Northeast winds will remain elevated into Fri, when the strongest and most widespread winds are expected. For the mountain foothills peak gusts of 45 to 55 kt are expected. For the valleys, gusts 30 to 45 kt, locally higher near mountain foothills are likely. Coast and Coachella Valley will also see elevated winds with gusts 20 to 30 kt. There is a potential for gusts of 50 kt to occur at KONT early Fri AM. Winds may decrease briefly after 00Z Fri, increasing around 10Z Fri. Winds Fri will weaken from north to south 18-22Z. Areas of MOD-STG up/downdrafts in lee of (south and west of) mountains along with areas of LLWS where strong winds do not surface. East winds continue into Sat. && .MARINE... Isolated northeast gusts could exceed 20 knots Friday into early Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .BEACHES... A south swell from 190 to 200 degrees at 3 to 4 feet with a 15-17 second period will generate elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet, with local sets to 7 feet. There is an increased risk of strong rip currents. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire. High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Diego County Valleys. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for San Bernardino County Mountains. HighWind Warning until midnight PDT Saturday night for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. High Wind Warning until noon PDT Saturday for Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Wind Advisory until noon PDT Saturday for Orange County Inland Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CSP AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CO  824 FXUS62 KKEY 152018 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 418 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Confidence is increasing for an extended period of wet and windy conditions across the Florida Keys this weekend, and possibly into early next week. - A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required by Sunday for portions or all of the Keys coastal waters. - Uncertainty remains very high regarding rain chances for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Deep layered ridging stretches from the southeastern United States into the Adjacent Atlantic. This is maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Despite the ridging deep layered moisture remains rather high at above 2 inches of precipitable water. Instability was good and inhibition nearly non existent. Altogether, this has been supportive of isolated showers and a very rare thunderstorm across the area. A few island locations were briefly affected by a light to moderate shower. Warm and fairly humid conditions remain with highs close to 90 and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. The upcoming forecast will be dominated by the evolution of the next mid latitude trough currently amplifying across the heart of North America. Over the next couple of days the trough will amplify as it swings into eastern North America and link up with an upper level low over the Gulf of America. This will shove the deep layered ridge eastward into the Atlantic. Consequently, surface winds will trend downwards, becoming light through this period, possibly becoming variable Friday night. The already high deep layered moisture will remain elevated and may climb slightly. This along with continued instability and lack of inhibition will keep at least mid chance for precipitation despite the decelerating flow. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal with dew points holding in the mid to upper 70s. The mid latitude trough will swing out into the Atlantic late this week, followed by deep layered ridging pushing eastward into the eastern United States. This will thrust a strong cold front southward across the Gulf of America, Florida, and the Atlantic Coast. Breezes are expected to freshen considerably beginning late Saturday, however guidance has been hinting at the front slowing to a crawl, possibly stalling within our forecast area. The combination of the frontal baroclinic zone, copious associated deep layered moisture, and fresh breezes will have a very high likelihood of considerable shower coverage with a chance for thunderstorms with the best chances occurring from late Saturday into early next week. Unfortunately, improving weather and any post frontal cooling, drying and relaxing breezes will be completely dependent on when the front is finally flushed out of our area. The latest guidance drives the front southward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea in the Tuesday time frame. However, consistency has been poor. Stay tuned. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Over the next couple of days a mid latitude trough will push eastward through the eastern United States and displace a surface ridge eastward off of the southeast into the Atlantic. As a result, gentle to moderate breezes tonight will steadily give way to light breezes, possibly becoming variable tomorrow night. Uncertainty ramps up considerably for this weekend and into next week as all guidance points to a strong cold front advancing southward across the Gulf and Florida late Friday and stalling across the Keys this weekend. This will bring with it freshening northeasterly breezes and considerable moisture and rain chances. The extent, coverage, and durationof this wind surge and enhanced rain chances will be highly dependent on where this front decides to stall and it is way to early to know. Expect at least a few periods of Small Craft Advisories over some or all of our waters and categorical rain chances with a chance for thunderstorms. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will be gentle out of the east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 82 88 79 / 20 40 50 50 Marathon 89 82 89 79 / 20 40 40 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  464 FXUS64 KMRX 152033 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 433 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 433 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Record heat is expected today with warm temperatures continuing into Friday. - Rain chances return Friday into Friday night, especially in northern areas, as a front arrives from the west. - Much cooler conditions are expected this weekend with the first frost of the season likely for the Plateau, southwest Virginia, and the Tennessee/North Carolina mountains Sunday morning. A warming trend will follow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 433 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, ridging is centered to our east with a weak low and stationary frontal boundary located to our north. Some shower activity has continued to our north with low-end rain chances in southwest Virginia. Otherwise, record high temperatures are expected again today with the records and year of occurrence listed below: Record highs Today: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021) Similarly warm temperatures are expected tonight with the system to the north deepening as it moves into the eastern Great Lakes by morning. The frontal boundary associated with the system will approach from the west through the day ahead of a Canadian high. Moisture will be sufficient for low-end rain chances but limited based on moisture and fast timing. The front will move through the area by Friday night, bringing northwesterly flow and much cooler temperatures to the region by Saturday. With lingering low-level moisture, PoPs will persist over the mountains and foothills into the daytime. With 850mb temperatures reaching near to below 0 Celsius some mix with snow is possible across the highest peaks. Otherwise, a breezy day with highs in the 50s is expected for most of the region. Saturday night into Sunday morning, the high will be centered just to our north and east with subsidence, leading to strong radiational cooling conditions. The first frost of the year is very likely for Plateau, northeast Tennessee, and the Tennessee/North Carolina mountains at a minimum. By Sunday, height rises are expected as troughing moves off to the east, allowing temperatures to rise back into the 60s. Another cool morning is expected on Monday with continued subsidence. High pressure will remain in place for the middle of the week with gradual height rises promoting a continued warming trend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Quiet aviation conditions are expected with southerly to southwesterly winds and some clouds around 5,000 to 10,000 feet AGL. A few showers are possible north of TRI but no impact expected at the terminal. Overnight, light and variable winds are expected with patchy fog possible for some. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 83 50 62 / 0 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 82 49 59 / 0 30 40 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 81 48 59 / 0 10 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 80 45 55 / 0 50 70 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...BW  504 FXUS65 KBOI 152035 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 235 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Wednesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... An upper level ridge over the western United States will remain the dominant weather feature across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho through Friday night. This will keep atmospheric conditions stable, resulting in clear skies, light surface winds, and temperatures running roughly 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms. Dry surface layer conditions will also contribute to mild afternoons and efficient radiational cooling at night. By Saturday, a weak shortwave trough moving inland across the Pacific Northwest will begin to erode the western periphery of the ridge. While moisture remains sparse with this system, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly to generate localized afternoon breezes. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Sunday and Monday, temperatures remain about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. A weak cold front on Sunday cools temps a few degrees from Saturday. Through the rest of the week, a high amplitude trough becomes a cut off low in southern California. As the trough builds along the West Coast Monday evening, increasing clouds and some breezy conditions in SE Oregon are expected. The low becomes cut off on Tuesday, as the earliest models show the cold front move through. There is still some uncertainty, inherent to cut off lows, that shows the cold front moving through Wednesday. When it passes, it will cool temps down to normal, low 60s for the afternoon high in lower elevations, low 50s for mountain valleys. The cloud cover, and increasing chance of precipitation Tuesday evening through Thursday evening could help to moderate temperatures further. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1116 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 VFR. Areas of smoke from prescribed burning near KBNO and KMYL. Fog possible again tonight in Eastern Oregon. Surface winds: E-SE 5-10kt in the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: E-NE 5-10 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds SE 5-15kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies on Sat/Sun. Areas of smoke from prescribed burns. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt mainly east of KBOI on Saturday, then S-SE 5-10 kt Sunday && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....JM  556 FXUS66 KMTR 152036 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 136 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a cooling trend begins Sunday into next week - Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and Friday - Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 (This evening through Friday night) Another warm and sunny day across our area with offshore flow providing above normal temperatures and abundant sunshine. With an upper level ridge over NorCal and upper level low over SoCal, we're seeing a common setup for a relatively weak Diablo wind event through the North Bay interior mountains, which has resulted in a Red Flag Warning issued for 10p tonight through 11am Friday for that area. The highest peaks around Mt St Helena have already seen gusts between 50-60 mph and we expect that to continue until winds at lower altitude begin to increase later tonight through late morning Friday. It hasn't rained in that part of the North Bay since September 4th, so conditions and fuels are very dry (see the Long Term discussion below for how that may change next week). Elevated fire weather concerns extend beyond the Red Flag Warning so we continue to message to abstain from any activities that could ignite a wildfire. The offshore flow continues to work against marine layer development with some of our coastal locations like Half Moon Bay and Monterey already in the low 80s and representing some of our highest temperatures of the day so far. The offshore flow will continue tonight providing clear skies area wide. Thermal belting above 1000ft over much of our area will result in poor RH recovery and overnight lows well above normal, providing little relief from the heat until at Saturday night. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) We expect the Red Flag warming over the North Bay interior mountains to expire at 11am Friday with easing winds as the mitigating factor, temperatures will remain warm with very dry conditions and fuels persisting through Saturday until a notable pattern change sets in on Sunday. An upper level trough to our north will approach the coast over the weekend bringing a return of onshore flow, a subsequent cold front and notably cooler temperature and multiple days through the middle of next week with scattered light rain chances. We're not expecting any one location to see more than a 0.25", and most locations that see some rain will get less than a 0.10" but confidence is increasing that most of our area will see at least a little bit of rainfall, with exact timing still too far out to speak of with any confidence. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High confidence for VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period regionwide as high pressure builds in over the region. Light/variable to offshore winds prevail early this morning but are likely to return onshore by early-to-mid afternoon. However, onshore wind speeds will be weaker than previous days. Vicinity of SFO...VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light/variable winds persist early this morning and are forecast to become weak offshore and persist through about 22Z when they turn more onshore. Winds ease overnight and become weak offshore again Friday morning. Onshore winds are again forecast by Friday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Typical drainage winds (southeasterly) prevail at SNS with onshore winds expected to return regionwide early afternoon. Winds ease after sunset and become light/variable overnight into Friday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moderate seas prevail across the outer waters, while the inner waters experience slight to moderate seas through Friday night. During this time frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which will be accompanied with rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A Red Flag Warning was issued for the North Bay Interior Mountains that goes into effect at 10PM tonight and runs through 11AM Friday morning. This is due to moderate offshore winds very dry with very poor overnight humidity recoveries only reaching 15 to 25 percent. Rapid fire spread is possible given the combination of gusty northerly winds and very dry overnight conditions. Elsewhere in the Bay Area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. Dry conditions, poor overnight RH recovery, combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Red Flag Warning from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  618 FXUS65 KLKN 152038 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 138 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Ridge pattern to close the week with warming temperatures * Series of weather systems through the Great Basin next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Currently, we are sitting in between a weak trough to our south, and a weak ridge trying to develop to our north. While both seem to be struggling, model guidance suggests both can fully develop by Friday morning. Between these two features, the area is experiencing an easterly/northeasterly flow. This pattern is accompanied by significantly slower winds in the northern portions of the forecast area, closer to the high, and faster flow in the southern regions, near the low. Residual moisture being trapped by the two systems seems to be keeping the temperatures in check for the moment. Limited positive moisture advection is present when looking at the higher elevations, with a moderate moisture transport moving towards northern Nevada out of the Great Salt Lake. As this is all near the surface, the upper levels will still remain dry from the overlying ridge, allowing us to remain in minimal cloud cover for the next few days. It is for these reasons we will see a gradual warming into pleasant temperatures as we work through the weekend. The highs will be sitting in the 60s and 70s as we move through today, and will increase at very slow rates as we get to Monday. Our lows are currently expected to stay in the low 30s tonight, but if recent trends continue, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them land in the mid 30s. Not a major difference, but enough to acknowledge the models are overshooting the lows due to the higher dew points. These lows are expected to increase up to the upper 30s, lower 40s as we get to Sunday before the next pattern sets in. Next week, we are still expecting a major polar jet to push through, bringing a very deep low, colder temperatures, and precipitation. Who needs wishcasting when you can have this. Long range model guidance is showing a deep low moving off the Pacific Ocean across portions of AZ, CA, and southern NV, which will extend a vorticity maxima line across the state with the passage. The different models are still struggling with timing, but there is an overall trend of moving it later into the forecast period. The GFS currently has the primary passage occurring for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame, while the ECMWF is looking more mid-day Thursday into Friday. Precipitation types are still a question, with the biggest concerns being around the surface. We are currently looking at surface temps hovering around freezing. As of right now, the less whimsical option appears more likely, in the surface lows will stay above freezing until after the FROPA and the precipitation has passed. This means widespread rain is in the forecast with potential for snow mostly in the higher elevations. This does not mean that we won’t see any snow in the valleys, but the likelihood of just rain is still seeming higher. If one thing is certain, this is not an event to leave town for if you love winter. As we push into this event, the highs are supposed to be in the upper 50s/ low 60s pre-frontal, and in the mid 40s/ low 50s post-frontal. The lows are expected to follow the pattern of upper 30s/ low 40s pre-frontal, and in the mid 30s post-frontal. Confidence: High confidence for a relatively clear and pleasant weekend. Medium confidence in the polar jet bringing precipitation and cold temperatures. Low confidence in precipitation type and timing of the polar jet. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for at least the next 24 hours. Thursday afternoon, northerly wind gusts ranging from 20-25kts at KTPH/KELY will diminish after sunset. No precipitation is forecasted through Friday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather remains quiet, with no thunder or humidity concerns and only standard afternoon breezes for winds. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...82 FIRE WEATHER...94  084 FXUS64 KHUN 152046 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 346 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue today with more record setting warmth, and Minor to Moderate (Level 2/4) heat impacts across portions of the Tennessee Valley. - Colder conditions returns Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The heat continued across the greater Tennessee Valley, with area high temperatures so far rising into the lower 90s. In Huntsville, the high has warmed to 90 degrees, exceeding the previous record of 88 last set in 1924/1938/1947. The temperature in Muscle Shoals may reached 91 degrees, which will tie their old record last set in 2015. There is another hour or so of more heating potential before cooling in the late afternoon commences. One last night of mild conditions are expected as lows cool into the low/mid 60s with light SE winds. A cold front currently located from southern Wisconsin to across the central Plains to the Texas Big Bend is forecast to move SE, and reach NW Alabama around daybreak Fri. Showers are not expected into the early morning with the front. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The warm spell that we have been experiencing as of late will come to an end Friday morning, as a cold front sweeps in NW-SE manner across the Valley. This boundary will be moisture starved (with most of the dynamics and moisture well to our north and NE), thus am expecting a "dry" frontal passage. Newer output from the ECMWF was hinting at light showers mainly along and east of the I-65 corridor Fri afternoon. The front should be felt as SW winds will become NW, increasing to 15-20 mph with some gusts over 25 mph. Highs should range from the mid 70s NW Alabama where the cool air arrives earlier, to around 80 over the eastern areas where it arrive later. What could be called "blustery" conditions are expected Fri night as temperatures fall. Temperatures in the early evening should be only in the lower 60s, but will fall into the upper 40s by the late evening. A stiff NW-N flow of 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will make for uncomfortable conditions for those participating in outdoor activities. The colder trend will continue under mostly sunny skies Sat, with highs only into the lower 60s. Northerly winds of 10-20 mph are expected into the early afternoon, then should gradually diminish towards the early evening. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure at the surface by Sat night should be situated over the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. This cold anticyclone bringing a N-NE flow across the greater Tennessee Valley will bring the coldest air of the season thus far. Night time lows by Sun morning should range from the upper 30s our southern Middle Tennessee counties to the low/mid 40s near large bodies of water. The models have been showing mainly 38 degrees over Lincoln and Moore counties. Under clear skies and light winds, we cannot rule out temperatures falling another couple of degrees or so, which would bring a frost risk. This is something we will monitor. The start of a new week should feature sunny skies with high temperatures a bit warmer than they were Sat, rising into the mid and upper 60s. Light winds in the morning should become E-SE in the afternoon. Not as cold Sun night with lows in the low/mid 40s. A slow warming trend is expected for the start of the new work week. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, highs Mon should rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows Mon night mid 40s to around 50. The moderation in temperatures continues into the midweek. Under partly cloudy skies, highs on Tue should get close to seasonable norms into the low/mid 70s, and into the mid 70s to around 80 Wed. Lows Tue night again should range from the mid 40s to around 50. Dry weather should continue into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions should continue into Fri morning, as high pressure off of the SE coast provides a southerly flow across this region. Shower activity preceding a frontal boundary nearing from the NW should remain west of the area through Fri morning. This cold front is forecast to sweep in a NW-SE manner across the TN Valley Friday morning. Southerly winds will veer to the NW and increase to 10-20kt with stronger gusts late in the TAF. Post frontal clouds moving in should produce MVFR CIGs late Fri morning as well. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...RSB  316 FXUS63 KJKL 152054 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 454 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers remain possible at times into Friday tonight. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered off the Southeast US Coast and extended from the Atlantic into the Southeast Conus. Further west, upper level troughing extended from near Hudson Bay into the Plains to Central Plains. At the surface, a boundary that had stalled out over the area earlier in the day was lifting to the northeast as a warm front in advance of a sfc low tracking from the mid MS Valley vicinity toward the Great Lakes. Isolated mainly weak convection was occurring from the Bluegrass region east near the I-64 corridor into western West Virginia. A few sprinkles were occurring further south. Late afternoon temperatures ranged from the upper 80s near the TN border to the mid to upper 70s in the north and east. The upper level ridge will become centered off the southeast U.S coast tonight and tomorrow which will allow the upper level trough to approach the eastern Conus from the west. An initial shortwave should pass northwest of eastern KY tonight, while the main trough axis progresss into the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley tonight and then reaches the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley to Gulf coast vicinity on Friday evening. This will be preceded by the previously mentioned sfc low tracking across central sections of the Great Lakes to the St Lawrence Valley. The boundary currently lifting north will move north and east of eastern KY this evening. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will progress across the Commonwealth tonight through midday on Friday, crossing eastern KY during the day. Chances for showers wane this evening, with the boundary moving north and loss of daytime heating. With a moist airmass in place and the approaching cold front, mild overnight lows compared to mid October normals are anticipated for tonight. Highs for Friday occur during the morning, before temperatures drop by midday into the afternoon on west to northwest winds. Cooling temperatures aloft and the approach of the upper trough and passing front will result in shower chances for Friday with light amounts. The upper trough continues east and crosses eastern KY on Friday night particularly nearer to the VA border. Lingering low level moisture and upslope flow will result in chances for showers/light rain lingering Friday evening into Friday night. Lows will be cooler than recent nights in the upper 30s to mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 834 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Expect a significant drop in temperatures to occur on Friday evening, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide by sunset. Once the sun goes down and solar insolation goes away, the temperature plummet will continue. The entire CWA should wake up to temperatures in the 40s on Saturday morning, but lingering cloud cover and some upsloped rain showers should prevent it from getting much colder than that. The same cannot be said for Saturday night/Sunday morning, which looks to be the coldest night of the autumn season thus far. As a post-frontal surface high pressure system builds into the CWA on Saturday morning, winds will shift to a more northerly orientation. This will bring an end to any orographically-enhanced post-frontal rain chances, and a much cooler/drier continental airmass will move into the region in the wake of the precipitation. Highs will struggle to get much warmer than the 50s, and dewpoints will plummet into the 30s on Saturday afternoon. Diurnal mixing should work to erode any lingering cloud cover by sunset, which should set the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight. NBM ensemble data resolves a 60-90% chance of temperatures dropping below 36 degrees across most of the JKL CWA overnight. The most sheltered and shaded valleys could make a run at the 32 degree mark, but the probability of occurrence drops to below 40% at this threshold. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions. Saturday night is poised to meet this criteria, so agricultural interests and recreational gardeners are encouraged to monitor for potential product issuances as the time approaches. Temperatures will be slow to make a full recovery back above the 70 degree mark next week, although a gradual warm-up is expected. The postfrontal high should shift east on Sunday as the mid/upper level trough axis aloft swings through New England. Antecedent forecast thinking is that a building ridge will allow temperatures to moderate back into the 60s under fair skies by early next week. However, some of the more recent pieces of guidance (namely members of the Euro ensemble) are developing a cut-off low over the Carolinas in this time frame. That feature could block the eastward propagation of that ridging, and it would cause temperatures to stay on the lower side of the forecast envelope early next week. Nevertheless, fog should become favored over frost in the valleys at night as temperatures warm. This is typical for autumn in Eastern Kentucky, and next week's forecast features temperatures much closer to normal than what we are experiencing at the present moment. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 At issuance time, VFR was reported for southern TAF locations such as KSME and KLOZ, while MVFR to IFR, and in some cases lower reductions were reported in locations further to the north including KJKL, KSJS, KIOB, and KSYM. A few showers were moving across northern and eastern sections as a boundary continues to lift back north. With daytime heating, gradual improvements should occur during the fist 6 hours of the period for the 4 more northern TAF locations with VFR continuing in the south. Also, additional scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may develop and affect KSJS, KIOB, KJKL, and KSYM during the first 6 hours of the period. Chances for showers diminish quickly thereafter, with mainly VFR anticipated between 00Z and 12Z. A cold front will near and move across the area to end the period. This will likely bring a return of low clouds including some MVFR or perhaps lower ceilings and the chance for showers. Winds will average south to west at generally 10KT or less through 12Z, before becoming westerly at 6 to 12KT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MARCUS/HAL AVIATION...JP  412 FXUS66 KPDT 152057 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 157 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry and warm conditions through the end of the week 2. Gusty conditions through the Grande Ronde Valley tomorrow afternoon with elevated fire risk. 3. Trough develops through area beginning Monday with the potential for rainfall along Blue Mountains && .DISCUSSION... Clear skies continue to be present over the region thanks to continued upper-level ridging along the US West Coast. Current guidance timing suggests that the ridge will remain present in the region throughout the rest of today and tomorrow, transitioning to zonal flow alongside a shortwave trough tomorrow night into Saturday morning. Said shortwave trough will likely (greater than 50% chance) be positioned along the US- Canada border, limiting precipitation chances through the region (less than 20%). As the primary trough axis continues to move eastward, deterministic guidance highlights a favorable surface pressure gradient across the Blue Mountains for gusty south/southeast winds tomorrow into Saturday morning, especially around the Grande Ronde Valley. NBM ensemble probabilities for this time show a high chance (around 75%) of localized sustained winds in excess of 20 mph, with a moderate chance (up to 50%) of local gusts in excess of 40mph in the Grande Ronde Valley. Given the windy conditions in these regions, as well as RH values around 15-20% for much of the Blue Mountains in the afternoon, an elevated fire risk is present for these regions for Friday afternoon into the evening. As zonal flow continues throughout the weekend, an upper level trough will begin to develop offshore Sunday night through Monday, moving into the PacNW region Monday night into Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is confident (greater than 75% chance) that a trough will occur, however significant variability still exists regarding trough strength and timing. Because of this uncertainty in trough depth, there is low confidence (around 30-40%) in current rainfall amounts. In scenarios where the trough is deeper, with a closed low developing near California, rainfall is limited to non-wetting amounts along the Blue Mountains. In scenarios with a more northward low or open wave setup, wetting rainfall in these regions is more likely with the improved moisture flow pattern. Lingering rainfall is possible into Wednesday and Thursday as the trough moves eastward and weakens, however the same model variability concerns and low confidence still applies. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions to persist throughout the TAF period for all sites. Clear skies to start with few high clouds towards the 08-18z period for all sites. Breezier conditions for KDLS, KRDM, and KBND at 10KT, with gusts at 15KT for KDLS.&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 69 37 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 69 44 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 72 38 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 70 42 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 70 37 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 67 38 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 33 79 36 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 70 41 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 75 36 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 74 44 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 69 37 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 69 44 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 72 38 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 70 42 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 70 37 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 67 38 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 33 79 36 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 70 41 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 75 36 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 74 44 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/71 AVIATION...07/95