400 FXUS63 KDMX 160401 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1101 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers gradually end southwest to northeast this evening though additional wrap-around showers are possible in the north and east overnight into Friday morning. - Becoming windy and much cooler tonight into Friday. Winds out of the northwest gusting to at least 35-45 mph at times, with some higher gusts possible in the north/northwest Friday morning. - A Freeze Watch was issued for much of the area Saturday morning with lows in the low the upper 20s to low 30s. - Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Near widespread rain this morning has begun to decrease in coverage this afternoon and this trend is expected to gradually continue southwest to northeast through the rest of the afternoon into evening. Temperatures today have been held down by the clouds and rain with locations north in the upper 40s to low 50s, central in the 50s, and further south to southeast where winds still remain out of the south to southeast, in the 60s to even low 70s. The strong upper trough remains to our west this afternoon but will continue to deepen as it swings through the central U.S. tonight through Friday. The pressure gradient will continue to strengthen tonight and strong cold air advection will be brought into the area tonight into Friday morning leading to increasing winds and decreasing temperatures. Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 30s to 40s but will be kept from falling off too much with more minimal clearing expected between clouds starting to depart following the rain this evening and additional cloud cover moving in from the north as the system wraps around into Friday morning. Additional rain showers are also expected as we get the wrap-around precipitation overnight into Friday morning, mainly in the north and east. Along with the cloudy, and in some cases light rain, tonight into Friday will generally not be pleasant as the strong winds out of the northwest continue to increase. These winds look to peak on Friday morning sustained around 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph common, and some gusts near to in excess of 45 mph, especially in northern to northwestern Iowa. Cloud cover may help limit the amount of mixing and thus the strongest wind gusts, but forecast soundings do reveal many locations in northwest Iowa with top of the mixed- layer winds (which is only like 15-25kft early Friday) in the 40-50 knot range so certainly don't want to discount the potential for some 45-55 mph gusts and thus a wind headline. Overall wind gusts look to remain largely below wind advisory criteria and at this time plan to address with a SPS. Feel-like temperatures to start the day Friday will be in the 30s and only warming into the 40s to low 50s as highs themselves down't make it much past the low to mid 50s. Some patchy fog may also be possible tonight into Friday morning especially south or southeast where any clearing may linger longest. Winds then gradually decrease through the afternoon to evening Friday northwest to southeast but temperatures remain chilly for any Friday evening activities. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure gradually moves into the region Friday night into Saturday morning allowing winds to drop off, skies to clear, and good radiational cooling. Temperatures by Saturday morning fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday morning to account for these low temperatures so make plans now to protect any sensitive vegetation! The pressure gradient tightens again Saturday behind the departing high pressure leading to breezy winds, especially north, Saturday into Sunday. Conditions otherwise remain dry with the surface high and an upper ridge in place. Temperatures begin to rebound later Saturday into Sunday as southwest flow returns translating to gradually increasing highs this weekend into early next week. Highs in the 50s Saturday become 60s Sunday-Monday and 70s again by Tuesday. There are a few hints of a small system near the region around Monday night but our forecast remains dry until mid to later next week when there is a bit more consensus for returning precipitation chances though details will continue to be refined in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Intermission of VFR cigs to start, but MVFR stratus is on the way from the northwest in the next 6 hours. Added Prob30 mentions for showers at KALO in the morning. Also added gusts into the Prob30 groups as winds could be higher with precip. MVFR departure was delayed for all sites, especially north. Gusts over 30kts common between 12 and 18z. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075- 081>085-092>096. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...Jimenez  294 FXUS66 KMTR 160418 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 918 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a cooling trend begins Sunday into next week - Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and Friday - Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 858 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The Red Flag Warning for the North Bay Interior Mountains goes into effect at 10 PM this evening and will remain in effect through 11 AM Friday. Offshore winds are picking up across the highest peaks within the North Bay Interior Mountains with gusts reaching 30 to 50 mph. The strongest gusts will be confined to these highest elevations but moderate offshore winds are expected to mix into the rest of the zone by late tonight/early Friday. Humidity values are expected to drop as offshore winds strengthen with most locations seeing overnight humidity values between 15 to 25%. If a fire is able to develop it has the potential for rapid spreed given how critically dry conditions are. Near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations for the rest of the Bay Area through Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 (This evening through Friday night) Another warm and sunny day across our area with offshore flow providing above normal temperatures and abundant sunshine. With an upper level ridge over NorCal and upper level low over SoCal, we're seeing a common setup for a relatively weak Diablo wind event through the North Bay interior mountains, which has resulted in a Red Flag Warning issued for 10p tonight through 11am Friday for that area. The highest peaks around Mt St Helena have already seen gusts between 50-60 mph and we expect that to continue until winds at lower altitude begin to increase later tonight through late morning Friday. It hasn't rained in that part of the North Bay since September 4th, so conditions and fuels are very dry (see the Long Term discussion below for how that may change next week). Elevated fire weather concerns extend beyond the Red Flag Warning so we continue to message to abstain from any activities that could ignite a wildfire. The offshore flow continues to work against marine layer development with some of our coastal locations like Half Moon Bay and Monterey already in the low 80s and representing some of our highest temperatures of the day so far. The offshore flow will continue tonight providing clear skies area wide. Thermal belting above 1000ft over much of our area will result in poor RH recovery and overnight lows well above normal, providing little relief from the heat until at Saturday night. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) We expect the Red Flag warning over the North Bay interior mountains to expire at 11am Friday with easing winds as the mitigating factor, temperatures will remain warm with very dry conditions and fuels persisting through Saturday until a notable pattern change sets in on Sunday. An upper level trough to our north will approach the coast over the weekend bringing a return of onshore flow, a subsequent cold front and notably cooler temperature and multiple days through the middle of next week with scattered light rain chances. We're not expecting any one location to see more than a 0.25", and most locations that see some rain will get less than a 0.10" but confidence is increasing that most of our area will see at least a little bit of rainfall, with exact timingstill too far out to speak of with any confidence. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 433 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR through the forecast period due to offshore flow and dry air. Biggest challenge aviation wise will be dialing the winds. At points winds will be relatively light and variable. Offshore flow will strongest over the N and E Bays. Didn't include in the TAF for STS/OAK, but marginal (20-30% chc) of LLWS. LLWS most likely from 08-15Z. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Offshore push for the Friday AM rush. Onshore heading into the Friday afternoon rush. SFO Bridge Approach...VFR. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 858 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure to the north will maintain gentle to moderate northerly breezes over the coastal waters through Friday. A storm passing well to the north will usher in moderate to fresh northerly breezes this weekend. The increasing winds will bring a fresh swell and steeper wind waves. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A Red Flag Warning was issued for the North Bay Interior Mountains that goes into effect at 10PM tonight and runs through 11AM Friday morning. This is due to moderate offshore winds very dry with very poor overnight humidity recoveries only reaching 15 to 25 percent. Rapid fire spread is possible given the combination of gusty northerly winds and very dry overnight conditions. Elsewhere in the Bay Area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. Dry conditions, poor overnight RH recovery, combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  378 FXUS63 KIWX 160422 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1222 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Turning much cooler and windy for Friday with some lake effect rain showers expected. The strongest wind gusts are expected downwind of Lake Michigan across Berrien and La Porte Counties where gusts to 45 mph are likely Friday afternoon and evening. - There are chances of frost both Friday night and Saturday night. - After below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures will warm back above normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low level warm/moist advection is increasing this afternoon as a mid/upper ridge axis shifts across the eastern Great Lakes. Low level flow will continue to strengthen over the next several hours with some pockets of better low level moisture convergence associated with speed convergence overspreads the area. Surface low pressure across NE Missouri will deepen some as a pair of upper level short waves advance east from central CONUS. The first of these waves is across the Central Plains this afternoon and will rapidly get ingested northeast into stronger west- southwest flow downstream of a more potent/dynamic upper level trough currently digging across the Dakotas. This evolution still looks inline to support a rapidly northward lifting warm front through this evening with a sharp increase in low level moisture and northward shift of pool of better instability from southeast MO into southern IN/western KY. It still appears as though locations in local area south of US Route 24 will have a brief window of weak MLCAPES (100-300 J/kg) in the 01Z-05Z timeframe tonight. Some weak prefrontal trough forcing may contribute to more scattered convection after initial bands of rain showers later this afternoon/early evening, with an environment potentially with some near sfc based instability to work with. While instability magnitudes will remain quite weak, robust low level and deep layer shear profiles will build in from the southwest, so will still have to be watching for some isolated strong-severe potential mid-late evening and possibly into early overnight for areas south of US-24. The more favorable combination of CAPE/shear still looks to be displaced south from southern IL to central IN where some isolated tornado potential cannot be ruled out given low level shear profiles. Confidence in severe weather potential as far north as local area remains on the low side, but will continue to monitor far southern locations later this evening/early overnight. A good deal of cloud cover/limited instability and stronger forcing displaced west and northwest of local area may be limiting factors for isolated severe threat. Sfc low pressure will continue to deepen Friday morning across far SE Ontario/Quebec as the more potent northern Plains trough approaches the western Great Lakes. Low level height gradient, while strong on Friday, does not look as strong as several forecast cycles ago as a secondary west-east low level trough axis will be dropping into the region Friday afternoon. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will look reasonable for most of the area with an exception of potential 40+ mph gusts closer to Lake Michigan shoreline. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Berrien MI and LaPorte IN Counties for Friday 18Z to Saturday 03Z. The potential strongest winds look to be in the 18Z-00Z period following secondary trough passage, with warm lake waters helping post-frontal mixing. After 00Z confidence in stronger wind gusts begins to diminish somewhat as some thermal modification of mass fields could lead to weak lake aggregate trough and a slackening of the gradient. This process should prolong the potential of lake effect rain showers into Friday night across NW IN and perhaps far SW Lower MI. The strong negative upper height anomaly will be progressive through the region with expansive longwave upper ridge spreading across central CONUS Saturday. A few nights of frost potential still look on track. On Friday night there could be an area across central portions of the forecast area that may be situated between lingering lake effect clouds to the west, and lingering better mixing to the east to allow for some patchy frost. Saturday night/Sunday AM will also feature patchy frost potential, with best chances across approx SE 2/3rd of the area as weak return southwest flow develops across western/southern Great Lakes. Much of next work week looks much quieter weather-wise as primary storm track remains across southern Canada while longwave ridging dominates central part of the country. Confidence is high in gradual warm up to above normal levels during the early to middle portions of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cold front moves through with showers and gusty westerly winds early this morning. Mainly MVFR ceilings anticipated, though brief periods of IFR remain possible. Ceilings likely hover in MVFR daybreak through the early afternoon with westerly winds gusting up to around 20 knots. A secondary trough drops through this afternoon with increasing rain coverage, particularly at KSBN where lake enhancement kicks in. Winds become more northerly and remain gusty then into this evening. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Friday for INZ103-203. OH...None. MI...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043- 046. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Steinwedel  419 FXUS63 KDDC 160424 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1124 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A freeze watch is in effect for Friday night into Saturday morning. - Cool and windy weather is expected through Friday, with below freezing readings and lighter winds by Saturday morning. - A warming trend is forecast Sunday and into next week, with highs near 80 by Tuesday or Wednesday. - The next chance of rain is late next week or next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure will build across the high plains through Saturday morning, with brisk north winds at 15-30 mph. There may be a lull in the winds this evening with the loss of daytime mixing. Highs in the 50s look on track for Friday. As surface high pressure settles across the high plains Friday night, clear skies and light winds will allow for strong radiational cooling, with temperatures falling into the 20s in far western Kansas and lower 30s in south central Kansas. Thus, a freeze watch was issued for all of central and southwest Kansas with the exception of Barber County. Surface high pressure is forecast to slowly move off to the east this weekend, with a warming trend expected; and this warmup will persist next week. A weak upper level trough is predicted to approach the high plains by early Monday; but given the lack of low to mid level moisture, rain is not expected. Highs are forecast to reach near or above 80 by the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. There will be a very slow return of moisture next week and into next weekend as a strong upper level trough amplifies over the western USA, resulting in lee troughing and south winds. However, the rich moisture return will not occur until the upper level trough gets closer. Rain chances increase by next Friday and Saturday as the trough approaches the high plains. But even then there is uncertainty in how much rich moisture will make it into western Kansas. Given that the southern and central plains will be in the warm sector, with no source for cold air initially, it remains to be seen if enough potential instability will be present for thunderstorms. If the system slows down and colder air does progress southward ahead of it, then rain chances would be higher; but this is a low probability scenario. Bottom line is that the conservative route on rain chances seems appropriate given the uncertainty. And we are getting to that dry time of year when a special upper level pattern is required for widespread rain on the high plains. This is due to the stronger westerly momentum across the Rockies that tends to shunt moisture to the east of here. Probability wise, the grand ensemble indicates only 10-25% chances for .5" or greater of rain by next Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist across the TAF period at all terminals. Northwest winds will continue to be 15-20 knots increasing to 20-25 knots by this afternoon. As high pressure nears overhead Friday night into Saturday winds will lighten and be more variable to end the period. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Bennett  437 FXUS63 KGLD 160425 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1025 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy this afternoon with gusts up to 55 mph in northeast Colorado and 30-50 mph elsewhere. Some patchy blowing dust possible in Colorado. - Frost and light freeze possible tonight, then a light freeze likely Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1022 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Upgraded the remaining Freeze Watch counties tonight to a warning. Somewhat marginal set-up with occasionally breezy north winds expected to continue through the night, but skies will be mostly clear. Dew points are in the upper 20s to lower 30s, so likely will see a few locations reach 32 by morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 118 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current mid-level water vapor imagery and analysis show a deep, positively tilted trough accompanied by a strong jet streak over the Tri-State area. Clouds have been slow to clear this morning, but have started to clear in areas in the early afternoon. Chances for light showers throughout the area continue until around sunset. If and when the clouds clear for the area will determine the severity of the wind threat for today. If clouds clear sooner, the risk for strong winds will increase as stronger winds will be able to mix down to the surface. If cloud cover remains thick or fails to clear, the overall wind threat could diminish. Mostly northwesterly winds with gusts around 30 mph are expected throughout the area. Counties along and west of the Colorado/Kansas border could see gusts around 45 mph. As of 12pm MDT, portions of eastern Colorado have reported wind gusts around 40 mph. Winds will start to calm down around midnight, but breezy conditions with gusts around 30 mph are possible through Friday morning. Areas that receive little to no precipitation could see localized blowing dust accompanying the stronger winds. For tonight, a Freeze Warning has been issued for our Colorado counties. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for Cheyenne, Sherman, Wallace, and Greeley counties in Kansas and Dundy county in Nebraska. Current NBM probabilities have our Colorado counties around a 80% chance of temperatures below 32 F. The line of counties east of the Colorado/Kansas and Colorado/Nebraska border have a 20- 40% chance of temperatures below 32 F, with chances increasing east to west. Breezy conditions and cool temperatures continue Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 50s. Gusts around 35 mph are possible as the jet streak over our area from Thursday continues to traverse east. Clear skies are expected to persist throughout the day, so we have another chance of temperatures below freezing overnight into Saturday. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire Tri-State area Friday night through Saturday morning. A warming trend begins Saturday as we transition toward an upper- level ridge pattern with south-southwest surface winds. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s for the region. Afternoon wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible, with the highest gusts expected for our Colorado counties. Afternoon relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the low teens for the western county warning area (CWA). Strong winds coincide with the lowest RH values of the day, so a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are likely Saturday afternoon. RH values have the potential to further drop due to south-southwest winds continuing to dry out conditions. Grassland Fire Danger (GFDI) values are forecast in the 30s to 40s for our Colorado counties, so fires that start are likely to spreadrapidly and show erratic behavior. Fire weather concerns diminish after sundown. Clear skies are expected overnight into Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast in the upper 30s to low 40s for the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Southwest flow aloft via longwave ridge is anticipated on Sunday to kick off this forecast period. Said ridge, centered over the western Great Lakes region, should propagate fairly quickly to the east over the course of the day Monday. Upper-level winds become zonal through Monday. Guidance currently projects a second ridge to develop on Tuesday across the the Plains region, settling the flow pattern back to southwesterly through the middle of next week. This, all ahead of an upper-level low that is expected to move across the SW CONUS through Wednesday. Guidance does outline a brief shortwave early Monday which should move out of the County Warning Area (CWA) by the time the evening comes around. Not much is expected to come from this trough passage other that a wind shift. A weak surface low is likely to form over eastern Colorado Sunday, moving into western Kansas Monday. This feature also should not do much other than pressure changes and wind shifts. Ensemble guidance is beginning to pick up a stronger surface low that may set up near the Tri-State area late Wednesday. Forecast guidance anticipates conditions to be quite dry across the CWA through early Wednesday. 5% or less PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) are favored throughout the region. This may not last though as an upper-level low, mentioned in the above section, paired with low-pressure at the surface could bring the next decent rainfall chances to our region late Wednesday. Guidance is currently not very confident on widespread precipitation, but a general 15-25% PoPs is forecasted at this point in time. Surface analysis/QPF doesn't show much accumulation for our area right now; nonetheless, still worth monitoring as this event draws closer. Moving on to high/low temperatures for the coverage area, a slight warmup is expected across the board as we rebound from well-below average highs. Temps in the low/mid 70s are likely Sunday and Monday, with a slight uptick to mid/upper 70s Tuesday then upper 70s/low 80s possible next Wednesday. With respect to overnight lows, Sunday morning is likely to be the coldest, with temps expected to approach the mid 30s. Lows will then gradually warm up above the mid 30s, with upper 30s/low 40s expected Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue this warming trend with low/mid 40s and then upper 40s/low 50s expected, respectively. As for fire weather concerns, the potential for critical fire conditions will be low, but not zero. Relative humidity (RH) values are likely to reach the mid-teens (14-15%) in our eastern Colorado counties on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface winds over these areas should sit around 15-20 mph from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Going forward, RH values are anticipated as low as the upper teens west of US-385 Monday and Tuesday, but winds should be light and variable; thus, the fire weather outlook likely will be milder post-Sunday. For the rest of the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is to be expected with generally 5-15 mph winds. Winds will initially be from the south Monday, shifting to the north and east with the shortwave, then settling back to more of a southerly direction. Gusts are not likely to exceed 25 mph during this forecast period everywhere east of the Colorado/Kansas state line. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 500 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for both KGLD and KMCK. Winds are likely to remain from the north and around 10-20 kts with gusts around 25- 35 through the TAF period. Winds are likely to begin to decrease around 22-23Z to around 10 kts and remaining from the north. Beginning 04Z, expect low level wind shear to develop and last until around 11Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Friday for KSZ001- 013-027-041. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ090>092. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for NEZ079. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...Rhoades LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Holdren  443 FXUS63 KUNR 160425 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1025 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds will gradually decrease tonight. - Widespread freezing temperatures expected overnight. - Above average temperatures return for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Strong winds continue and are only slowly starting to wane. A few areas may locally be able to hold onto advisory-level winds an hour or two past the 05z/11pm expiration currently scheduled for most of our zones, but with things starting to trend the right direction and many counties expected to drop below advisory criteria shortly, don't see forecast confidence and added value being enough to carve things up for potentially only a 1-hour extension across a few zones. Overall, winds will remain a bit breezy but will trend down overnight regionwide. Also seeing current cloud cover on satellite overperforming latest NBM and HRRR cloud guidance as far as coverage across the South Dakota plains outside of the Black Hills, resulting in temperatures holding in the 40s in these areas. Guidance does continue to offer some support for a gradual diminishing/clearing trend as the night progresses, but confidence in how this will play out is certainly lower than it was earlier. We do not currently have good confidence that the cloud cover will hold on through sunrise in it's current footprint and prevent freezing...the combination of decreasing winds and any local decrease in clouds will allow temperatures to quickly plummet anywhere both occur (Gillette is down to 34 degF, and portions of the Black Hills are below freezing). Thus, will continue to monitor trends, but will keep the current FREEZE WARNING going as issued at this time. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 1202 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current upper air analysis shows upper trof axis draped across the Northern Plains. Attendant sfc front is pushing through the CWA with 3 hr pressure rises of 3-4 mb behind it. The pressure rises and cold air advection is supporting widespread gusty northwest winds, especially across the western SD plains. Stations across western SD have begun to report gusts of 45-55 mph, these winds should continue through this afternoon into late evening before diminishing overnight as the front exits the region. While a few gusts up to 60 mph are possible, the majority of gusts should be around 45 to 55 mph. CAA and clearing skies will result in widespread freezing/sub- freezing temps tonight into Friday for much of the area. Freeze Warning remains in effect for most of the forecast area tonight into tomorrow morning. Upper ridging builds over the western CONUS by Friday into this weekend. Expecting above average highs this weekend into early next week with elevated fire wx conditions. Next chances for precip arrive later next week as another trof deepens across the western US, though it's still too far out to determine any specifics about precip chances or timing. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued At 503 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Strong winds will start to diminish after sunset, until then widespread gusts of 45kts are expected on the western SD plains. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 11 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002- 012>014-026-030>032-041>043-072-073-077-078. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for SDZ001-002-012>014- 025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ046-047-049. WY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ054>056-058>060. && $$ UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...Wong AVIATION...Schweigert  859 FXUS64 KEPZ 160439 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1039 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1033 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A strong backdoor cold front is moving through tonight, bringing gusty winds and well below normal temperatures into the weekend. - High Wind Warning is in effect for far west Texas and portions of southern New Mexico into Friday. Wind gusts to 60 mph are possible along mountain west slopes. - Scattered rain showers for the middle of next week as temperatures rebound. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 949 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A potent cold front is pushing through the Borderland this evening, bringing strong NE winds behind it. Gusts over 50 mph have already been seen E of the US 54 corridor. The strength of the sfc high behind the front is more in-line with what we tend to see in the middle of winter (1045mb-ish over central high plains on Fri). This will result in an impressive pressure gradient across the CWA as the front sweeps through in the near-term. West mtn slopes will see the gustiest winds, reaching 60 mph or higher. The strongest winds are expected to occur from now through early Fri AM with winds easing a bit during the day on Fri and shifting more easterly. Generally 25-35 mph sustained winds are modeled with a pocket of lighter winds from Las Cruces up towards Holloman AFB. No changes have been made to the wind headlines. Forecast remains on track. Dust models, including the RRFS and NOAA AQ model, show a signal for blowing dust through the overnight, favoring S Otero County and far west TX. Low chance of 1 mile VIS in isolated areas, most likely in El Paso County. Any dust lifted off White Sands should get blocked by the San Andres and struggle to reach the upper RGV. The dust threat lowers Fri AM and shifts out W towards the Lordsburg Playa where winds remain strong. Confidence is lower in seeing dust impacts in Hidalgo Co compared to eastern areas, where BLDU Advisories are in effect until 9am Fri. An upper low cuts off from the flow off the Baja coast for the rest of the week, pulling moisture into it. A ridge of high pressure extends from the NW at the same time, keeping most of the moisture to our south. Precip chances remain near zero into the weekend as winds subside through Sat. The upper low opens up into a shortwave on Sun, bringing some of its moisture into the region and slight rain chances for western areas. Then, a Pacific storm system dives down the West Coast, pulling more subtropical moisture northward through midweek from the Pacific. PWs climb towards 1" with low- medium rain chances area-wide late in the period. A low flood threat is present as NBM 90th %-ile shows 24-hr rain amounts of 1-2" Wed and Thu. Confidence is low in impacts for this midweek rain event. Temperatures crash to unseasonably cool levels (highs 10-20 degrees below normal) behind tonight's front. Lowland highs in the low-mid 60s are forecast through Sat with cold air advection ongoing. It'll feel more like winter than early fall, especially in the Sacs Fri AM as wind chills reach the teens. Lowland areas to the N and E are likely to dip into the 30s Sat AM with patchy frost. Temperatures rebound towards normal early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Backdoor front has moved in, increasing winds from NE. Gusts up to 40kts, excluding KLRU which looks to be in a pocket of lighter winds. Dust models are picking up on BLDU for KELP early in period, most likely from 6-9z. Confidence remains low for VIS reductions at KELP. BLDU chances are low at best for the other terminals. LLWS can be seen also overnight. Winds lighten a bit during the dayand shift more E, subsiding more late in the period. Mainly SKC throughout. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 927 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low end breezy winds from the north will define this early afternoon. Min RHs in the lowlands are in the mid-to-upper teens and in the upper-20s-to-low-30's across the mountains. A drastic change is afoot this evening as a backdoor cold front arrives from the northeast, shifting winds eastward and dropping temperatures to at least 20 degrees below average. Sustained wind speeds tonight and into tomorrow will range from 25-35 mph are wide, with wind gusts exceeding 60 mph along the west slopes of the mountains. Min RHs Friday and Saturday will continue to be in the mid-to-upper teens in the lowlands, and fall to the 20s in the mountains. Temperatures will gradually warm up and winds will die down on Sunday, with a chance for rain early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 54 65 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 47 59 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 48 66 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 47 68 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 27 41 23 46 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 49 66 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 44 61 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 67 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 51 66 44 61 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 56 65 47 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 52 63 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 54 68 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 45 56 37 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 67 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 64 44 62 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 51 68 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 48 68 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 49 71 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 54 67 46 63 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 49 66 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 34 50 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 33 52 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 33 50 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 37 58 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 46 65 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 67 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 39 61 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 45 64 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 71 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 67 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 63 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 65 46 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 64 43 60 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 59 42 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County. Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 AM MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County. NM...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT Friday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley. High Wind Warning until midnight MDT Friday night for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel. High Wind Warning until noon MDT Friday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. Wind Advisory until noon MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Northern Dona Ana County-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands. Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 AM MDT Friday for Otero Mesa- Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson  543 FXUS65 KSLC 160429 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1029 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another night of freezing temperatures will impact the Sanpete and Sevier Valleys as well as eastern Juab and Millard Counties tonight. - A few thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening and again Monday afternoon and evening. - More widespread precipitation will occur Tuesday through at least the early part of the weekend, with another 0.50-1.50 inches for most locations, locally up to 2 inches (or even more) for areas that do well in southerly flow. && .DISCUSSION...A warming trend will continue as high pressure remains overhead through the first part of the weekend. A cut off upper level low currently over southern California will continue to retrograde westward. Meanwhile, the continued very active eastern Pacific will have at least two ongoing tropical cyclones (Simon and Trudy). As the upper level low continues to shift westward, tropical moisture from weakening Tropical Storm Simon will be drawn northward into Baja California and eventually the Desert Southwest Sunday. This upper level low will eject across the Desert Southwest ahead of the next Pacific trough Sunday. PW anomalies from this moisture advection ahead of the low will reach near 90-95th percentile across southern Utah. While it is mid-October, if sufficient destabilization occurs, a few thunderstorms capable of heavy rain will develop Sunday afternoon and evening across southern Utah. This threat will continue Monday afternoon and evening. The previously mentioned upper level trough will be off the central California Coast by Tuesday morning. Broad upper level divergence ahead of this upper level trough combined with PVA will support the develop of widespread precipitation across central and southern Utah by Tuesday afternoon. As this trough slowly crosses the West, additional periods of valley rain and high elevation snow will continue through at least the early weekend period. Rainfall totals (25th to 75th percentile) are averaging around 0.50 to 1.50 inches across most locations, with some areas that do well in southerly flow (northern Wasatch Front, Provo Canyon, southern mountains) likely seeing more than 2 inches. As far as snow, while it's over several days, looking like another 6 to 12 inches, mainly above 9000-9500 feet. Going Freeze Warnings are on track and no changes will be made. No additional headlines are needed at this juncture. && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions prevail at the terminal under mostly clear skies. Light southeasterly winds continue overnight, transitioning to the northwest after roughly 19z. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all regional terminals. Winds remain generally light and diurnally driven for northern Utah terminals into Friday. Across southern Utah and southwest Wyoming, while lighter winds are expected overnight, gusty northerly to easterly winds redevelop Friday afternoon. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for UTZ116-118-119. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Whitlam For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  892 FXUS64 KSJT 160440 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect through tonight (1 PM today to 7 AM Friday) for all of the Big Country, Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau, and Coleman County. Focused shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall is expected. - Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall today and tonight for much of the Northern Edwards Plateau. Surrounding this Moderate risk area is a Slight risk for excessive rainfall, which encompasses most of of West Central Texas. - A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 1 PM Friday for gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. - Much cooler temperatures expected Friday into the weekend. Some low-lying areas may have morning lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A series of upper-level disturbances continue to bring increased rain chances, along with a cold front bringing cooler temperatures and gusty winds to the area through Friday. This airmass brings ample moisture and precipitable water values to the area today, making for very efficient rain-producing storms. The heavy rainfall from these systems bring the threat of Flash Flooding to much of West Central Texas today through early Friday morning, mainly across the Big Country, Concho Valley, Northern Edwards Plateau, and northeastern portions of the Heartland. The Flood Watch is currently in effect through early Friday morning for these areas, and there is a decent chance that Flash Flood Advisories and Warnings will be issued this afternoon through this evening when the heavy rainfall starts impacting areas across West Central Texas. With that said, please make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings, and stay tuned to our forecast for updated information on this event. Much of West Central Texas is outlooked today by WPC in a Moderate to Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall, with the Northern Edwards Plateau being the focus of the Moderate Risk area through tonight. In general, there is potential for 1-3 inches of rainfall over a fairly large area, with localized pockets in excess of 5 inches possible. Please see the Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Discussion (Day 1) for more details and on the rainfall amounts. After the strong cold frontal passage, increased and gusty north winds are expected this afternoon through Friday. Northerly winds from 15 to 30 mph are expected, with higher gusts as high as 45 mph are possible overnight tonight through Friday. As a result, a Wind Advisory is in effect for 1 AM to 7 PM Friday for all of West Central Texas for these gusty winds. As for the temperatures, expect overnight lows tonight to fall into the 50s, and highs on Friday to struggle surpassing the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 After a chilly start to the morning on Saturday, temperatures will slowly warm into the low to mid 60s by afternoon. These highs are 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal normals. Good radiational cooling conditions are forecast Sunday morning, as winds become light and variable and skies remain clear. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s across most of the area. Low-lying areas and river valleys may drop into the mid 30s. A light frost is possible across the area, especially across low-lying areas where the coldest temperatures are forecast. Another cool day is forecast on Sunday with highs in 60s to near 70. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s. A steady warm up is then forecast through next week. Highs on Monday will be back into the 70s, with highs on Tuesday approaching 80. Upper level ridging then develops across the area for the second half of the work week, resulting in highs well into the 80s. Dry conditions are forecast to continue through much of the work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, there are scattered showers and thunderstorms from near KABI, south to KSOA, moving to the east and southeast. Expect KBBD and KJCT to see TSRA over the next few hours, and all sites could have lingering SHRA through the late night hours. North winds have already moved into KABI and KSJT, and will likely be at KBBD and KSOA by 00Z or 01Z, and then KJCT between 01Z and 03Z. Winds will be strong behind the front from later tonight throughout the entire day tomorrow with north winds in the 20 to 30 knot range all day. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions tonight with the thunderstorm activity and behind the front will improve to VFR between 12Z and 15Z at most sites, but KABI could see VFR conditions before 12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 82 53 61 42 / 100 100 0 0 San Angelo 82 50 61 40 / 90 100 10 0 Junction 85 52 62 41 / 20 90 30 0 Brownwood 86 52 62 42 / 70 100 10 0 Sweetwater 79 51 59 40 / 100 60 0 0 Ozona 79 50 59 40 / 90 100 30 0 Brady 86 53 60 41 / 30 100 20 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for Callahan-Coke-Coleman- Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels- Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Brown-Callahan-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason- McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford- Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...20  259 FXUS65 KGJT 160447 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1047 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier conditions and below seasonable temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend. - Sub-freezing nighttime temperatures are forecast across northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas tonight and Friday night. Freeze Warnings are in effect for those time periods. - Unsettled weather returns mid to late next week with potential for mountain snow and valley rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 FREEZE POTENTIAL: As the trough moves further east over the Midwest, high pressure builds behind over the Great Basin and Intermountain West forming a Rex Block heading into Friday with northerly flow over the region. Much colder air mass settles over the region tonight with lows in the 20s for the northwest Colorado valleys (Yampa River Basin) where a widespread hard freeze appears likely. Other areas in a Freeze Warning tonight include the upper Colorado River valley (COZ008) from Glenwood to Avon and the San Juan River Basin (COZ023). A Freeze Warning remains in effect for those same areas Friday night as well, so depending on how widespread of a hard freeze occurs in these zones would determine whether additional freeze warnings are needed. Outside of these areas, temperatures will be cooler but not expecting temperatures below freezing for the overnight. DRY THIS WEEKEND: High pressure moves overhead by Saturday as the Rex Block breaks down and the low that was at the bottom of the Rex Block will open up and pull enough moisture with it to bring isolated showers to the San Juans as it tracks over the Four Corners Sunday afternoon. This is fairly weak so not expecting much impact but drier conditions overall this weekend with temperatures around 5 degrees or so below seasonable. Isolated showers are possible again over the high terrain Monday afternoon as southwest flow keeps the area a bit unsettled. Temperatures overall will bump up a little bit towards normal but lean on the side of below seasonable for most areas. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK: The next chance for impactful weather comes mid to late next week beginning Tuesday as a low pressure system dives down the west coast and forms a deep closed low over the Desert Southwest. Diffluent southwest flow will allow for better orographic showers Tuesday, more scattered over the high terrain. This low will track across the Great Basin and lift across the area, currently timed late Wednesday through Friday of next week with cooler conditions returning and better chances of more widespread precipitation and mountain snow. Details are still a bit uncertain with timing, amounts and how much cold air will arrive with this system but this mid to late next week system is one to keep an eye on. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 535 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gusty winds around 25 kt remain over eastern Utah. Expect the winds to decrease overnight for the remainder of the TAF period. Once again, fog is possible during the overnight and early morning hours in mountain valley sites such as KTEX, KGUC, and KHDN but confidence in exact timing and location is low. Otherwise expect clear skies and VFR conditions to prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Friday for COZ001-002-005-008- 023. Freeze Warning from midnight Friday night to 10 AM MDT Saturday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDA AVIATION...RJ/TGJT  829 FXUS64 KSJT 160437 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1137 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect through tonight (1 PM today to 7 AM Friday) for all of the Big Country, Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau, and Coleman County. Focused shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall is expected. - Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall today and tonight for much of the Northern Edwards Plateau. Surrounding this Moderate risk area is a Slight risk for excessive rainfall, which encompasses most of of West Central Texas. - A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 1 PM Friday for gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. - Much cooler temperatures expected Friday into the weekend. Some low-lying areas may have morning lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 After a chilly start to the morning on Saturday, temperatures will slowly warm into the low to mid 60s by afternoon. These highs are 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal normals. Good radiational cooling conditions are forecast Sunday morning, as winds become light and variable and skies remain clear. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s across most of the area. Low-lying areas and river valleys may drop into the mid 30s. A light frost is possible across the area, especially across low-lying areas where the coldest temperatures are forecast. Another cool day is forecast on Sunday with highs in 60s to near 70. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s. A steady warm up is then forecast through next week. Highs on Monday will be back into the 70s, with highs on Tuesday approaching 80. Upper level ridging then develops across the area for the second half of the work week, resulting in highs well into the 80s. Dry conditions are forecast to continue through much of the work week. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The upper-level trough that has helped cause the active weather across west central Texas today will start to shift eastward Friday evening into Saturday, leaving behind shortwave ridging across Texas. Cold overnight low temperatures and cooler afternoon highs will remain in the wake of the cold front tracking through the region tonight. A much cooler and more stable airmass will settle in across the region for the weekend. Overnight lows Friday night under generally clear skies and light to slightly breezy winds can allow for ideal radiational cooling conditions early Saturday morning as well as Sunday morning. As a result, low temperatures both mornings could be quite cool as they look to drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Apparent temperatures can drop into the low 30s to low 40s, which brings us close to freezing in some low- lying areas. This would be the coldest temperatures we have experienced since mid-April! The strong area of high pressure will move eastward by Sunday afternoon and allow for southerly flow at the surface while an upper-level shortwave passes to the north. High temperatures should climb back into the 70s on Sunday and Monday and into the 80s on Tuesday. The upper-level pattern could become more active for the middle part of next week as global models are in fairly good agreement of an upper-level low digging into southern California by Tuesday night. This would place much of west Texas under southwest flow aloft, similar to what occurred earlier this week. Differences in timing and moisture amounts still exist on this feature so for now, low (20-30%) chances for rain are in the forecast for Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, there are scattered showers and thunderstorms from near KABI, south to KSOA, moving to the east and southeast. Expect KBBD and KJCT to see TSRA over the next few hours, and all sites could have lingering SHRA through the late night hours. North winds have already moved into KABI and KSJT, and will likely be at KBBD and KSOA by 00Z or 01Z, and then KJCT between 01Z and 03Z. Winds will be strong behind the front from later tonight throughout the entire day tomorrow with north winds in the 20 to 30 knot range all day. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions tonight with the thunderstorm activity and behind the front will improve to VFR between 12Z and 15Z at most sites, but KABI could see VFR conditions before 12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 82 53 61 42 / 100 100 0 0 San Angelo 82 50 61 40 / 90 100 10 0 Junction 85 52 62 41 / 20 90 30 0 Brownwood 86 52 62 42 / 70 100 10 0 Sweetwater 79 51 59 40 / 100 60 0 0 Ozona 79 50 59 40 / 90 100 30 0 Brady 86 53 60 41 / 30 100 20 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for Callahan-Coke-Coleman- Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels- Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Brown-Callahan-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason- McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford- Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...20  901 FXUS64 KTSA 160440 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Gusty north winds will occur behind a cold front tonight into Friday. An advisory is in effect for the higher terrain areas of NW AR and far SE OK. - Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast across far SE OK this afternoon due to the combination of low humidity, gusty winds and lack of rainfall in this area. - Temperatures get cool enough Friday and Saturday nights to support potential frost conditions across portions of NE OK and NW AR. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front has now cleared the forecast area. A tight gradient behind the front will support gusty north winds tonight into Friday. The latest short-term guidance indicates advisory-level gusts are possible, especially on the ridge tops in the higher terrain areas of NW AR and far SE OK. A wind advisory has been issued from 09Z tonight to 18Z Friday for gusts reaching 45 and perhaps topping 50 mph locally. The Oklahoma Mesonet rainfall map shows that far southeast Oklahoma has picked up very little if any rain with this recent event. By afternoon, this area will see humidities dropping into the 30 to 40 percent range while north winds remain gusty. With fuels remaining fairly dry and favorable, a Fire Danger Statement will be issued for this area. A much cooler day is in store for Friday, with afternoon high temps in the 50s to mid 60s well below average for this time of year. Lingering low cloud cover, gusty north winds and maybe some patchy drizzle will lead to a pretty raw day over the Ozarks. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Lingering low clouds over the Ozarks Friday night are expected to hold low temps up around 40 degrees and will prevent frost conditions from developing. However, to the west of the expected low cloud shield across far NE OK near the KS border, low temps in the mid 30s are expected to support frost development. A frost advisory will be needed with the next forecast update if this trend continues. Clouds are not expected to be a factor by Saturday night, and with the surface ridge either close by or overhead, conditions may be favorable in more areas for frost development. A warming trend will commence over the weekend with ridging aloft and at the surface maintaining quiet weather. This warming trend will continue sharply upward as we head into next week, with 80 degree highs returning Wednesday. An upper trough is expected to become established over the western CONUS with downstream ridging over the Plains. Dry weather is expected to persist until the upper trough starts its trek toward the Plains. The latest ensemble data suggests this may not happen until the end of next week. Lacy && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front is making its way southward through the area, bringing a period of MVFR ceilings and a dramatic increase in wind speeds and gusts from the north to northwest following its passage. The front has passed through BVO/TUL/RVS and should reach MLC by 01Z, XNA/ROG/FYV by 02Z and FSM by 04Z. Light rain is occurring with the frontal passage, with minor visibility reductions expected for a few hours. Ceilings should improve overnight at each site as the front pulls away. However, wraparound moisture should lead to additional lower cloud development for the NE OK and NW AR terminals, most likely at VFR heights but some potential for another round of MVFR ceilings. Winds will begin to decrease some at the NE OK sites 21-22Z, although remaingusty through the end of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 47 59 39 60 / 30 0 0 0 FSM 53 65 43 67 / 60 0 0 0 MLC 50 62 43 64 / 80 0 0 0 BVO 42 58 35 60 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 44 59 39 63 / 70 0 0 0 BYV 46 58 41 62 / 70 0 0 0 MKO 48 60 39 62 / 50 0 0 0 MIO 45 57 39 60 / 40 0 0 0 F10 48 60 39 61 / 60 0 0 0 HHW 54 64 44 66 / 40 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053-376. AR...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for ARZ011-119-120. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...22  442 FXUS66 KMTR 160452 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 952 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a cooling trend begins Sunday into next week - Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and Friday - Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 858 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The Red Flag Warning for the North Bay Interior Mountains goes into effect at 10 PM this evening and will remain in effect through 11 AM Friday. Offshore winds are picking up across the highest peaks within the North Bay Interior Mountains with gusts reaching 30 to 50 mph. The strongest gusts will be confined to these highest elevations but moderate offshore winds are expected to mix into the rest of the zone by late tonight/early Friday. Humidity values are expected to drop as offshore winds strengthen with most locations seeing overnight humidity values between 15 to 25%. If a fire is able to develop it has the potential for rapid spreed given how critically dry conditions are. Near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations for the rest of the Bay Area through Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 (This evening through Friday night) Another warm and sunny day across our area with offshore flow providing above normal temperatures and abundant sunshine. With an upper level ridge over NorCal and upper level low over SoCal, we're seeing a common setup for a relatively weak Diablo wind event through the North Bay interior mountains, which has resulted in a Red Flag Warning issued for 10p tonight through 11am Friday for that area. The highest peaks around Mt St Helena have already seen gusts between 50-60 mph and we expect that to continue until winds at lower altitude begin to increase later tonight through late morning Friday. It hasn't rained in that part of the North Bay since September 4th, so conditions and fuels are very dry (see the Long Term discussion below for how that may change next week). Elevated fire weather concerns extend beyond the Red Flag Warning so we continue to message to abstain from any activities that could ignite a wildfire. The offshore flow continues to work against marine layer development with some of our coastal locations like Half Moon Bay and Monterey already in the low 80s and representing some of our highest temperatures of the day so far. The offshore flow will continue tonight providing clear skies area wide. Thermal belting above 1000ft over much of our area will result in poor RH recovery and overnight lows well above normal, providing little relief from the heat until at Saturday night. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) We expect the Red Flag warning over the North Bay interior mountains to expire at 11am Friday with easing winds as the mitigating factor, temperatures will remain warm with very dry conditions and fuels persisting through Saturday until a notable pattern change sets in on Sunday. An upper level trough to our north will approach the coast over the weekend bringing a return of onshore flow, a subsequent cold front and notably cooler temperature and multiple days through the middle of next week with scattered light rain chances. We're not expecting any one location to see more than a 0.25", and most locations that see some rain will get less than a 0.10" but confidence is increasing that most of our area will see at least a little bit of rainfall, with exact timing stilltoo far out to speak of with any confidence. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Not much change from previous TAF package...VFR through the forecast period due to offshore flow and dry air. Biggest challenge aviation wise will be dialing the winds. At points winds will be relatively light and variable. Offshore flow will strongest over the N and E Bays. Didn't include in the TAF for STS/OAK, but marginal (20-30% chc) of LLWS. LLWS most likely from 08-15Z. One new item for the 06Z will be monitoring winds for KHAF early tomorrow. In these offshore flow set ups winds can sometimes align for the E to NE and increase as they surface toward the ocean. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Offshore push for the Friday AM rush. Onshore heading into the Friday afternoon rush. SFO Bridge Approach...VFR. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 934 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure to the north will maintain gentle to moderate northerly breezes over the coastal waters through Friday. A storm passing well to the north will usher in moderate to fresh northerly breezes this weekend. The increasing winds will bring a fresh swell and steeper wind waves. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A Red Flag Warning was issued for the North Bay Interior Mountains that goes into effect at 10PM tonight and runs through 11AM Friday morning. This is due to moderate offshore winds very dry with very poor overnight humidity recoveries only reaching 15 to 25 percent. Rapid fire spread is possible given the combination of gusty northerly winds and very dry overnight conditions. Elsewhere in the Bay Area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. Dry conditions, poor overnight RH recovery, combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  402 FXUS63 KUNR 160451 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1051 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds will gradually decrease tonight. - Widespread freezing temperatures expected overnight. - Above average temperatures return for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Strong winds continue and are only slowly starting to wane. A few areas may locally be able to hold onto advisory-level winds an hour or two past the 05z/11pm expiration currently scheduled for most of our zones, but with things starting to trend the right direction and many counties expected to drop below advisory criteria shortly, don't see forecast confidence and added value being enough to carve things up for potentially only a 1-hour extension across a few zones. Overall, winds will remain a bit breezy but will trend down overnight regionwide. Also seeing current cloud cover on satellite overperforming latest NBM and HRRR cloud guidance as far as coverage across the South Dakota plains outside of the Black Hills, resulting in temperatures holding in the 40s in these areas. Guidance does continue to offer some support for a gradual diminishing/clearing trend as the night progresses, but confidence in how this will play out is certainly lower than it was earlier. We do not currently have good confidence that the cloud cover will hold on through sunrise in it's current footprint and prevent freezing...the combination of decreasing winds and any local decrease in clouds will allow temperatures to quickly plummet anywhere both occur (Gillette is down to 34 degF, and portions of the Black Hills are below freezing). Thus, will continue to monitor trends, but will keep the current FREEZE WARNING going as issued at this time. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 1202 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current upper air analysis shows upper trof axis draped across the Northern Plains. Attendant sfc front is pushing through the CWA with 3 hr pressure rises of 3-4 mb behind it. The pressure rises and cold air advection is supporting widespread gusty northwest winds, especially across the western SD plains. Stations across western SD have begun to report gusts of 45-55 mph, these winds should continue through this afternoon into late evening before diminishing overnight as the front exits the region. While a few gusts up to 60 mph are possible, the majority of gusts should be around 45 to 55 mph. CAA and clearing skies will result in widespread freezing/sub- freezing temps tonight into Friday for much of the area. Freeze Warning remains in effect for most of the forecast area tonight into tomorrow morning. Upper ridging builds over the western CONUS by Friday into this weekend. Expecting above average highs this weekend into early next week with elevated fire wx conditions. Next chances for precip arrive later next week as another trof deepens across the western US, though it's still too far out to determine any specifics about precip chances or timing. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night) Issued At 1049 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds have subsided in northeast WY, with western SD following over the next few hours. Southerly winds are expected tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 30kts expected. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 11 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002- 012>014-026-030>032-041>043-072-073-077-078. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for SDZ001-002-012>014- 025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ046-047-049. WY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday forWYZ054>056-058>060. && $$ UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...Wong AVIATION...Schweigert  008 FXUS64 KMAF 160443 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1143 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are expected through late Friday morning across much of west Texas. - A cold front today through Friday morning brings much cooler temperatures to the region this weekend. - Breezy northeasterly winds behind the cold front will occur tonight through Friday. High gap winds are expected in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Area radars show round #2 of convection has ended for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/CAMs suggesting round #3 commencing around 20Z or so. KMAF radar bias has increased from below 1 to 1.21 over the past few hours, suggesting the airmass has transitioned from convective to tropical. This is further evidenced by heavy rainfall reported over the past few hours. Supporting this, the KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a PWAT of 1.68". The 100th percentile is 1.43", and the (now old) record is 1.47". Latest mesoanalysis shows a prefrontal trough moving through the area, with a cold front following this evening. W/drier air advecting in behind these features, best chances for convection tonight will be south of I-20. With the airmass having gone tropical, the current flood watch looks on track. Latest NBM/MOS suggest wind advisories are warranted over the higher terrain as the front moves south, and the high wind warning has been shortened temporally to end Friday evening. CAA behind the front will usher in the coolest temperatures yet this fall, with overnight minimums coming in ~ 5 F or less above climatology. Friday, showers are possible along and south of I-10, but will quickly diminish to the southwest as the front continues pushing south. CAA will be in full force, with highs a good ~ 15-20 F below normal, keeping all locations in the 50s and 60s. Friday night, as post-frontal gradients/winds relax under clearing skies, lows will drop a good 10 F or so from tonight, putting all locations in the 30s and 40s. The highest elevations of the Davis Mountains may even see a light freeze. This front will definitely brrrring in Fall proper. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Cooler temperatures commence this weekend as surface high pressure centered over the Southern Great Plains reinforces cooler air behind the cold front. This yields afternoon highs in the upper 50s for most, with low 60s expected in a few locations. From Sunday onward, return flow and mostly sunny skies bring a warming trend. At this time, highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to low 80s by the middle of next week. Low chances of rain (10-30%) return to the western half of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as shortwave impulses move through southwest flow aloft. Greening && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions expected everywhere but FST which will be MVFR thru around 12Z before lifting. Gusty NE winds to 30-35KT continue for much of the period. No SHRA/TS will affect the terminals. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 53 60 40 60 / 30 0 0 0 Carlsbad 55 65 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 54 59 44 59 / 100 50 0 0 Fort Stockton 52 58 40 57 / 90 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 49 55 39 54 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 50 60 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 43 51 35 54 / 8040 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 54 59 41 58 / 30 0 0 0 Odessa 54 59 41 58 / 30 0 0 0 Wink 56 63 41 59 / 20 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT Friday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...10  032 FXUS64 KSHV 160444 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A powerful, dry cold front will be moving through the region Friday morning, bringing much cooler temperatures, significantly drier air, and gusty northwest winds. - A Red Flag Warning is in effect to highlight increased fire weather danger from incoming dry air and gusty winds. - Behind the front, Saturday will see cooler than average temperatures, followed by a steady warming trend into next week, with dry weather throughout. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent guidance has continued to speed up the progression of this cold front pushing in from the northwest overnight tonight and into Friday morning. Some radar returns have been present along the front, which is currently draped from north central TX to western AR. There could be some light showers that accompany the front as it begins to push into the Four State Region overnight, but very little accumulation is expected. The I-30 corridor should cool into the 50s just before daybreak Friday thanks to the fropa and peak radiational cooling. Current guidance has the cold front stretching roughly from Deep East TX up into southwest AR by sunrise and pushing southeast of the region by mid-late morning. The front will immediately bring cooler temperatures and the northwesterly wind shift. A Wind Advisory has been issued to account for sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible through Friday evening. The drier airmass is expected to lag a few hours behind the front, fully encompassing the area by early afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the same time period to account for the elevated fire danger that will be in place with the gusty winds and RH's of 25 to 35 percent. With the conditions on Friday and the prolonged drought, wildfire starts and spreading will occur much quicker. Public interests should consider temporarily postponing any outdoor burning. These products may need extending into the weekend depending on how incoming data trends. Even with the front long pushed to the southeast, more seasonable temperatures will linger into the weekend. Temperatures could dip down into the upper 30s for portions of southwest AR early Sunday morning with other areas dropping into the 40s. But highs in the 60s and 70s will once again give way to mid to upper 80s by the middle of next week as ridging redevelops over the southeast CONUS. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Aside from a few cu that may linger this evening over portions of Lower E TX/WCntrl LA, VFR conditions will continue this evening with mostly SKC prevailing. However, the leading edge of a strong cold front has just begun to enter NW McCurtain County OK into far Wrn AR attm, and will make steady progress SE this evening to the I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR, before quickly sweeping SE through all but the SE sections of NCntrl LA by daybreak Friday. Behind the front, MVFR cigs are expected to develop late this evening NW of I-30, before quickly spilling SE across all but the MLU terminal overnight. These MVFR cigs should also move through MLU by 13Z, with winds quickly becoming NNW and becoming gusty as the frontal zone deepens with the arrival of the MVFR cigs. Isolated areas of -RA/-SHRA will also be possible behind the front late tonight over SE OK/adjacent SW AR as well as portions of E TX after 12Z, but low confidence precludes mention in the E TX/SW AR terminals attm. The MVFR cigs should quickly lift/becoming low VFR from NW to SE around and after daybreak, with the lagging cu field also scattering out and diminishing across Lower E TX/N LA during the afternoon as well. Some areas of low AC may linger through through at least a portion of the afternoon over the region, before diminishing by the end of the TAF period. Lt/Vrb winds this evening will become NNW and increase to 7-12kts with occasional gusts to 20kts between 07-12Z across NE TX/SW AR/NW LA. Winds will become more Nrly and increase to 15-20kts with gusts to 30kts after 12Z areawide. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed during the day Friday in the event of wildfire development. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 64 71 50 68 / 0 10 0 0 MLU 65 77 50 70 / 0 10 0 0 DEQ 51 67 42 69 / 20 10 0 0 TXK 59 68 46 68 / 0 10 0 0 ELD 60 73 46 69 / 0 10 0 0 TYR 59 68 48 67 / 20 10 0 0 GGG 59 70 48 68 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 64 75 51 70 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...15  488 FXUS63 KOAX 160454 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds overnight into Friday morning. Wind chill drops into the upper 20s to mid 30s. - A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire CWA for late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Expect temperatures to fall as low as 30 degrees by Saturday morning. - Dry conditions continue with a warming trend into next week. Next widespread chance for showers & storms won't be until late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low clouds are moving in from the north overnight tonight with gusty winds out of the north. Looking at the overall pattern, a deep upper-level trough is bringing a surge of northerly winds into the Northern Plains tonight. These winds are amplified by a strengthening pressure gradient as a broad ridge over the Intermountain West pushes into the Plains. Winds will be strongest toward daybreak tomorrow morning with northerly winds gusting 30 to 40 mph, potentially higher in northeast Nebraska. With windy conditions and temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s, we'll see wind chill fall to near or even below freezing across much of our area Friday morning. As the trough shifts off to the east and high pressure builds in, winds will relax going into the afternoon with highs warming into the low-to-mid 50s. This ridge slides east across the central CONUS bringing a transition back to southwesterly flow late Saturday. Mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s by Sunday morning. As southwesterly flow continues to advect in warmer air, we'll see temperatures climb into the mid-to-upper 60s Sunday afternoon with this warming trend continuing into next week. While the weather remains quiet, the upper-level pattern continues to be fairly unstable with a series of shortwaves moving through amplifying warm-air advection across our area Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures potentially reach near 80 by Wednesday afternoon. We're watching another deep trough forecast to slide down the West Coast and deepen through the week next week. Weak shortwaves ahead of the main trough Wednesday and Thursday could bring a low chance of showers or storms. Our next good chance for more widespread showers and storms looks to be later next week with the arrival of the main trough. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR ceilings will push in from the north overnight and linger into late morning/early afternoon Friday before scattering out with mostly clear skies thereafter. Also expect strong northwest winds, with gusts of 30-40 kts through Friday morning. Speeds will decrease as clouds exit, with winds dropping below 10 kts by Friday evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068- 078-088>093. IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...CA  459 FXUS64 KMEG 160453 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1153 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A strong cold front will move across the Mid-South Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures through early week. - Friday's cold front will bring elevated wildfire danger, particularly to areas along and west of Interstate 55, as winds gust up to 30 mph along dry fuels. Elevated winds and low relative humidity will moderate by sunset Friday evening. - Dry weather is expected to persist over the next seven days. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A muggy October night is present across Mid-South after another record-breakingly warm day. Friday will be a different story as a strong cold front, currently extending across southeastern Missouri and central Arkansas, sweeps across our area. Temperatures and dewpoints will begin to plummet overnight and into the day Friday. Winds will also begin to sustain around 15- 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph early Friday and persisting through sunset. A combination of abnormally dry fuels, decreased relative humidity, and elevated winds will lead to an elevated fire danger threat Friday. Avoid any recreational burning and properly extinguish and dispose of cigarettes Friday as wildfires can start easily and spread quickly under the aforementioned conditions. High temperatures Friday will be 15-30 degrees lower than Thursday with readings in the mid 60s to upper 70s. As ample dry air and lowered dewpoints will be associated with this cold front, little to no precipitation is expected as this front moves across the Mid-South Friday. Cold air advection and an almost polar in nature airmass will trail behind this leading front resulting in a below normal weekend with cool mornings and pleasant days. Sunday morning will be the chilliest over the next seven days with areas mainly over West Tennessee seeing readings in the upper 30s and the rest of the area in the lower 40s. NBM probs have a 30-50% chance of seeing lows <37 degrees over mainly Northwest Tennessee resulting in potential frost early Sunday morning. Temperatures will begin to moderate closer to normal by Monday as cool high pressure begins to build slightly east of our area. Ensembles are hinting at an omega block setting up in the upper levels across the CONUS. Under this pattern, dry weather will continue over the next seven days and temperatures will begin to edge back above normal by Tuesday. This warming pattern will continue through the end of the week with much of the area seeing highs well into the 80s by as early as Wednesday. AEH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front extended through roughly the northwest third of AR at 04Z, and was continuing to make eastward progress across the state. MVFR CIGS and surface gusts greater than 20KT trailed the front by 50 to 70 miles. 00Z guidance depicts less persistent MVFR CIG potential for the Midsouth TAF sites following frontal passage later this morning. The main impact will remain gusty northwest winds, which should remain fairly constant in direction and speed after midmorning. We'll lose some wind speed after sunset, but the relatively well- mixed polar airmass will continue to support some gust potential well into Friday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front will move across the Mid-South beginning early Friday morning. Post-frontal relative humidity values will drop below 40 percent Friday afternoon. Elevated 20 ft northwest winds around 15-20 mph will accompany decreased relative humidity. Areas generally along and west of a line from Dyersburg, TN to Oxford, MS, will result in an elevated fire danger risk Friday afternoon. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for northeast central AR, NW MS, and far SW TN. Winds will gradually diminish into the upcoming weekend. No appreciable rainfall is expected over the next seven days. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...PWB  581 FXUS63 KSGF 160457 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms (30-60%) with a frontal passage through this evening and tonight. Additional rainfall amounts around a few tenths of an inch. - Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the 50s to 60s. The coolest day will be on Friday. Expect gusty northerly winds of 25 to 35 mph behind the frontal passage through Friday evening. - Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, Saturday and Sunday mornings as lows dip into the 30s. The highest confidence is on Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Ozarks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today-Tonight: The upper level trough is beginning to dig out of the Northern Plains this afternoon, with an associated low lifting through the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. A strong cold front will sweep through the region as the trough translates towards the Ohio Valley. A warm and rather humid airmass for mid-October is in place across the area early this afternoon. Scattered showers (30-60% chances) continue to advect through the warm sector this afternoon, with thunder limited by the lack of forcing. The Flood Watch was cancelled early given the scattered coverage and less favorable conditions for excessive rainfall this afternoon. Expect this activity to continue to move through the area ahead of the frontal passage that is surging south. As the front passes through, better forcing may support a few heavier downpours and isolated thunderstorms. At this time, it does not appear any stronger thunderstorms will occur in this environment. The front continues to push southeast through the area into this evening and tonight, with gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph behind the passage. Temperatures will quickly begin to cooldown, with lows in the 40s by Friday morning. Additional rainfall amounts will be limited to a few tenths of an inch through tonight. This will bring storm total rainfall amounts to 0.5 to 2 inches for several locations, with localized corridors of 2 to 4 inches over the last 36 hours. This has been a beneficial rainfall across the area given the ongoing drought conditions. Friday: Some breaks in the clouds through Friday morning before additional low-level clouds overspread the area into Friday afternoon. Low chances (10%) exist for light sprinkles with wraparound moisture being squeezed out of the atmosphere as high pressure builds towards the area. Otherwise, a rather chilly Friday is in the forecast as gusty northwest winds persist with highs in the 50s. It is plausible that some locations struggle to break 50 on Friday afternoon. Winds will gradually taper off into Friday night, though clouds will remain scattered to broken in coverage. Lows Friday night into Saturday morning fall into the middle 30s to lower 40s. The coldest temperatures will be focused across the eastern Ozarks. However, confidence is relatively low for frost into Saturday morning given the lingering winds and cloud cover. Any frost will be patchy in nature, and confined to sheltered areas and valleys. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Saturday-Sunday: High pressure settles over the region into Saturday, with clouds clearing the area. Expect highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Saturday afternoon, with light northeast winds. Clear skies and calm winds set the stage for another chilly night, including increasing chances for areas of frost. The latest guidance suggests probabilities of frost formation (< 35 degrees as a proxy) have increased to 60-90% in areas, especially across the eastern Ozarks. It is even reasonable to expect the much lower elevations and protected areas out east will fall below freezing. It is fairly common for this area to see temperatures 5+ degrees below surrounding observations. Elsewhere, patchy frost remains in the cards for Sunday morning and potential headlines will be assessed with future forecast updates. For some context, the average first frost date for the eastern Ozarks ranges from October 10-15, while the average first freeze data ranges from October 17-22. So while we have had quite warm temperatures September and the first half of October, the first frost/freeze is actually coming around right on time in terms of climatology. Highs a bit warmer into Sunday, reaching into the middle to upper 60s. Early Next Week: A ridge gradually amplifies over the central CONUS into early/mid next week, supporting a return of above normal temperatures. This will be characterized by high temperatures back into the middle to upper 70s, to even lower 80s by mid- week. This aligns with the latest CPC forecasts, depicting 70-80% chances for above normal temperatures into mid to late next week. Meanwhile, any rain chances remain low (< 10%) through early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front continues to move across the area, lending to scattered showers and MVFR to IFR ceilings. VFR ceilings return as dry air filters in behind the front, but KSGF and KBBG remain just behind the front and may remain MVFR to IFR until as long as 08-09Z with any lingering showers. With the scattered nature of the showers, ceilings may bounce categories several times overnight, but should remain predominantly VFR after 09Z. Gusty northwesterly winds up to 25-30kts behind the front will continue through the day Friday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Camden  384 FXUS63 KFGF 160451 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds are expected through tonight across eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley. - Freezing temperatures are forecast in the Devils Lake Basin tonight. There is a medium to high probability of widespread freezing temperatures Friday night across much of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Synopsis... Widespread stratus is present across the area this afternoon, both head of and behind the surface cold front that is moving through the region. Satellite imagery suggests extensive upstream stratus will prevail through much of tonight, save for across the Devils Lake Basin where some late-night clearing is expected. Showers are developing in southern Manitoba and north central ND in cyclonic flow, and are expected to spread south- southeast through this evening, resulting in a high PoP/low QPF scenario as the primary middle- and upper-level shortwave trough axis crosses the region. In the wake of this wave, mean upper- level ridging is forecast to build into the region by this weekend and is forecast to remain in place through much of next week. Low-level warm air advection this weekend will result in above-normal temperatures beginning Saturday and continuing through the middle to latter parts of next week. The spread in ensemble guidance and NBM membership is small for most of this period, with high confidence in highs in the 60s across much of the area from Saturday through next Thursday. Guidance suggests that a weakening shortwave trough and cold front may move through late this weekend, with breezy south-southwest winds ahead of that on Saturday, and breezy northwest winds behind it on Sunday. A mainly dry forecast is also in place from Friday through the middle to late part of next week given the mean ridging, though a low to medium probability exists for flow aloft to turn southwest by the middle of next week, which may eventually predicate low rain chances by then. ...Strong Winds through Tonight... Northwest winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph this afternoon are forecast to turn northerly and increase further tonight, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph, particularly in the Red River valley. Surface low pressure is centered near Lake of the Woods as of early afternoon, with a trailing cold front southwestward into west central MN. The surface low and cold front are both forecast to continue moving east-southeast across the area by late afternoon. Initial low- and midlevel cold air advection and an increasing surface pressure gradient behind the front is contributing to gusty winds in eastern North Dakota, which may approach advisory criteria from the Devils Lake Basin southward toward Valley City before 00z. However, the initial push of cold air advection is not particularly long-lived, and surface pressure rises are lacking. Both of those aspects will change after 00z when the middle- and upper-level shortwave trough axis passes eastern ND, turning deep-layer flow to a northerly direction, with a secondary and stronger surge of cold air advection concurrent with increasing deep-layer subsidence. The low-level wind fields will also increase with 45-50 kt flow in the 925 to 850 mb layer and cold-air-advection-steepened lapse rates contributing to sufficient mixing and momentum transfer through much of that layer. We also anticipate a 5-7 mb/3 hour surface pressure rise bubble moving southward through eastern ND and far western MN. This scenario is expected to yield advisory-level north-northwest winds in those areas, maximized in the Red River Valley given the orientation of the flow. Point forecast soundings at both Grand Forks and Fargo suggest momentum transfer may be sufficient for 50 kt gusts, but the depth and temporal efficiency of the mixed layer was not sufficient for us to upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Having said that, there is a 30-50% chance of gusts reaching 60 mph in the Red River Valley tonight when the aforementioned ingredients align, particularly in the 02z to 07z time frame. Both time- lagged HRRR and 12z RRFS/REFS guidance support maximum gusts near 50 mph, consistent with some uncertainty in the depth of mixing. There is also around a 50% probability that advisory-level gusts extend further into west central MN, e.g., portions of Otter Tail and Grant Counties. Time-lagged HRRR guidance supports that potential, but with some uncertainty in mixing nocturnally, we have not yet added them into the Wind Advisory. Winds are forecast to rapidly diminish by Friday morning as a surface ridge axis begins to approach the area. ...Freezing Temperatures... We have issued a Freeze Warning for portions of the area centered on the Devils Lake Basin tonight, where ensemble guidance and upstream observations provide high confidence in overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s F. This is supported by expected low-level cold air advection, but may be offset by lingering clouds (stratus) and winds that may not diminish until close to sunset even in those areas. Across the remainder of eastern ND and northwest and west central MN, we believe the cloud cover and winds will tend to inhibit the efficiency of cooling. Taken at face value, the 50th percentile NBM guidance suggests temperatures around 32 in parts of the MN lakes country. In contrast, MOS-based guidance (which is not bias-corrected by recent background trends) favors the temperatures staying above freezing, consistent with the expectation of cloud cover and winds limiting full cooling potential. Medium to high probabilities for freezing temperatures exist Friday night owing to the cool post-frontal air mass and expectation of a clear sky. The official forecast calls for low temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s F, lowest in parts of west central MN, which will be near a surface ridge axis the longest during the night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Winds, ceilings, and showers have evolved pretty much as expected. The main challenge for the remainder of the night will be how quickly winds diminish and how quickly ceilings lift and/or dissipate. Current satellite imagery indicates breaks in the cloud cover across portions of eastern North Dakota into Manitoba, although there are also areas of MVFR cigs across this area. General trend will be improving conditions, but timing will be more uncertain (anticipate the TAF forecast to unfold as written but not at the exact times). Light winds and clear sky on Friday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for NDZ008-016-027-029-030- 039-049-052-053. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-007-014-015-024- 026-028-038-054. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-007-014-015- 054. MN...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001>004-007-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...FGF AVIATION...TG  585 FXUS61 KILN 160457 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1257 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Reduced mention of thunder for the early morning hours today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold front moves through today, bringing gusty winds and decreasing temperatures this morning. Occasional periods of light rain will also occur. 2) High pressure brings below normal temperatures to the region this weekend. Frost is likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures slowly moderate into midweek, and conditions remain dry for the rest of the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1) Temperatures are at their warmest to start the day as the cold front approaches from the west early this morning. As the cold front moves through between 6 AM and 1 PM, temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s quickly drop into the 50s, remaining there through the afternoon. A period of gusty winds between 25 and 35 mph will occur with the frontal passage and through the afternoon, especially across west-central and central Ohio. A very thin line of showers may eventually develop along the front as it moves through central/southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky late this morning and into the early afternoon, however, much of the rainfall in the forecast is associated with favorable jet streak dynamics with the deep trough moving through the region. The period of light rain develops aloft behind the front, persisting through the afternoon. While light, this rainfall will only add to the dreary conditions behind the front. The better jet dynamics shift off to the east during the early evening hours, but the main trough axis will begin to pivot southeast through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley this evening. The trough drives a secondary cold front southward through the area this evening, bringing a renewed period of wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph for tonight. Temperatures will be driven down further, pushing low temperatures into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Given the expectation that the winds will not go calm, frost potential is lower for tonight into Saturday morning. Key Message 2) The trough shifts to the east on Saturday, allowing high pressure to build directly over the Ohio Valley by Saturday evening. Clouds are likely a bit stubborn Saturday afternoon across central/southern Ohio, but they eventually clear by the evening hours. As noted in previous forecasts, given the placement of the high pressure, the current forecast for low temperatures Saturday night is a couple degrees lower than NBM deterministic guidance. Most areas drop into the lower 30s with upper 20s also occurring, especially within the valleys. A freeze watch will be needed at some point, within the next one or two forecast cycles. The center of the high pressure shifts off to the east on Sunday, but conditions will remain favorable for frost development into Monday morning. Temperatures gradually moderate each day during the next work week. They are back to seasonal normals on Monday, rising a few degrees above normal Tuesday through Friday. Depending on the evolution of the cut-off or closed-low off the East Coast, rainfall projections through all of next week are fairly dry, with below normal PWATs persisting over the region. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The warm front continues to lift north late this evening, pushing IFR CIGs out of central Ohio. A few hours of VFR conditions will prevailing during the onset of the forecast. However, a cold front is quickly approaching the area, which will usher in another round of low-end MVFR CIGs. Ahead of the front, southwest winds are gusting between 20-25 knots. As the front passes, expect a wind shift from southwest to west-northwest. Frontal passage willbring wind gusts up to 25 knots with up to 30 knots possible. Then, for the remainder of the afternoon, wind gusts are in the 20-25 knot range. A secondary cold front moves in from the north late in the forecast, with another wind shift from west-northwest to north-northwest to north. Renewed wind gusts in 25-30 knot range are expected between 00Z and 12Z. The potential for widespread MVFR CIGs begins to decrease as drier air moves in from the north. OUTLOOK...Lingering MVFR CIGs are possible into Saturday morning for central Ohio. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGinnis AVIATION...McGinnis  630 FXUS65 KPUB 160459 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1059 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hard Freeze for San Luis Valley tonight with Freeze/Frost conditions for the southeast plains tonight and again Friday night. - Warmer and drier into early next week, with another storm system moving across the Rockies through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate to strong north to northwest flow aloft in place across the Rockies, with yesterday's parting system lifting out across the Northern High Plains at this time. Satellite imagery indicates mid level moisture embedded within the flow spreading south across the region, with regional radars indicating a few showers spreading across northeastern Colorado into the Palmer Dvd and northern portions of the southeast plains at this time. As advertised, gusty northerly gradient winds of 25 to 45 mph have developed across much of eastern Colorado, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s at this time, save for 30s at the peak. For the rest of today into tonight, gradient flow slowly relaxes as the Northern High Plains upper level system continues to translate north and east, allowing for a cool surface high pressure system to continue to build south and west across the Central High Plains. With a dry and cool airmass building south across the region, will see clearing skies and temperatures cooling overnight across the plains, with current Freeze Warnings for El Paso and Kiowa counties and frost advisories across the rest of the plains remaining in place overnight. Further west, we issued another Freeze Warning for the San Luis Valley, as central portions of the valley did see temperatures in the mid 20s this morning, temperatures closer to higher terrain did not see a hard freeze, owning to another warning, with lows expected in teens and 20s across the higher terrain tonight. Weakening northwest flow aloft continues across the region tomorrow with upper level ridging building into Western Colorado through the day on Friday. With only slight warming from the west, temperatures will be around to slightly warmer than today, with mainly 50s once again across the plains, and in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain under mostly clear skies. With the cool and dry air in place, we are still expecting the end of the growing season with sub-freezing temperatures across southeast Colorado Friday night into Saturday morning, with Freeze Watches in place. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Warmer and drier conditions remain in the offing for the weekend into early next week, as upper level ridging builds into the region. Latest model data does indicate some moisture embedded within said westerly flow bringing chances for showers across the higher terrain, especially along and west of the ContDvd by Sunday and into Monday. Southwest flow aloft then increases through the middle of next week, as another system digs into the Great Basin, leading to increasing chances of precipitation to areas along and west of the ContDvd through the middle of of the week. Models continue to differ on the timing and strength of said system lifting out across the Rockies through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1049 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Very low risk (10 percent) of some patchy ground fog along the Arkansas River/Rio Grande toward sunrise as surface dewpoints are only slowly falling, but won't include in the tafs at this point as drier air aloft will likely prevent formation. Mainly light diurnal winds under 12 kts at all terminals the next 24 hrs, with a brief period of gusty (g15-20 kts) north winds possible at KCOS 09z-14z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ069>071-084-085- 095-096. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ083-086>089- 093-094-097>099. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...PETERSEN