801 FXUS64 KMOB 160601 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 101 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Strong wind gusts expected to pose an enhanced threat for additional numerous downed trees and power outages over portions of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area on Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires. - Dangerous marine conditions developing Friday night through the weekend due to strong winds and high seas. In addition, a High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Looking at the big picture, for tonight through Sunday night, a deep upper trough passing over northern portions of the Southeast and north will move a strong cold front across the forecast area beginning mid-day Friday and south of area waters by 06z/1am Friday night. A dry airmass over the forecast area (precipitable h20 levels 1.1-1.5" north of the coast, 1.5" up along the coast and south). This will help to limit any rainfall to near coastal and open Gulf Friday afternoon and night ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. Winds shift to northeasterly over land areas, easterly over open Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday as a surface ridge builds south from along the Appalachians. Looking at impacts for land areas, the first is a possible wind advisory for late Friday into Saturday. North to northeasterly winds around 15kt/17mph with frequent gusts of 25-30kts/29-35mph with high values being possible. Areas south of Highway 84 most likely affected. A drier airmass will move in behind the front. Combined with the winds, and Severe Drought conditions, an increase in the risk of wildfires is possible Saturday (more below). For marine impacts, read below. Temperatures are in for a nose-dive behind the front, with high temperatures in the much above seasonal mid to upper 80s Friday dropping into the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures see the same drop, from low 60s to near 70 tonight to the mid 40s north of Highway 84 to low/mid 50s south of I-10. For Monday on, an upper ridge over the Plains moves over the Southeast and builds. High temperatures increase to back above seasonal norms, especially over and west of the Mississippi/Alabama State line. Low temperatures are slower to rise, with general northeasterly flow and a dry airmass helping with radiational cooling overnight. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is expected the rest of the week. As strong easterly flow sets up over the weekend, a High Risk of Rip Currents returns Sunday on. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Patchy fog is expected overnight with MVFR conditions possible. VFR condition follow for Saturday with gusty northerly winds developing Friday evening into Friday night. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A light, diurnally variable, flow tonight into Friday becomes a strong to very strong northerly Friday night behind a cold front moving across the forecast area Friday. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong, especially over open Gulf waters. With frequent gusts over gale force along with some areas seeing sustained winds close to gales, a Gale Watch is in effect for all waters Friday night into Saturday morning, tapering to just offshore waters into Sunday. A Small Craft is likely to beissued after the Gales goes down, and lasting into the coming week, especially over open Gulf waters, with a tighter gradient creating the strong easterly flow. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 86 53 70 51 / 10 10 0 0 Pensacola 84 56 71 54 / 20 10 0 0 Destin 82 58 72 56 / 10 10 0 0 Evergreen 87 50 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 88 49 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 86 50 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 86 54 70 50 / 10 10 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060-261>266. FL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206. MS...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ078-079. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>636. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$  027 FXUS61 KPBZ 160607 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 207 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marginal Risk for severe storms today includes most of western PA and northern WV. Probabilities for advisory level wind gusts (outside of convection) have also decreased. No other significant changes at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers, thunderstorms, and gusty wind today 2) Colder with frost and freeze conditions Saturday night, with frost possible again Sunday night 3) Dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and isolated thunderstorms in warm advection will continue to cross the area this morning. Elevated instability and a low level jet should also enhance some of this activity until just before sunrise. A digging upper trough is expected to advance out of the Midwest today, as a deepening surface low tracks across Southern Ontario to New England. The low will pull a strong cold front across the area from mid morning into the afternoon. Increasing flow with a jet aloft will result in increasing shear, with building instability east of the front. Enough heating/instability for strong storms appear unlikely for much of Ohio, with an earlier FROPA. Further to the east, building instability and the shear should result in a potential for storms to produce damaging wind gusts as the front crosses. Winds at 10kft are progged to be around 60kt at the time of FROPA across wrn PA, with around 50 kt further to the south. There is a potential for damaging winds as a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms develops along the front later this morning into the afternoon. There is some veering in the lower levels, with some limited potential for brief rotation should parameters briefly align, though the main threat should be from damaging wind gusts. Gusty winds are also expected outside of any convection, with a tight pressure gradient and mixing. Probabilities of advisory level gusts have decreases according to the latest model data and BUFKIT momentum transfer procedures. Still, gusts from 30 to 35 mph will be likely thorough tonight, with gusts around 40 mph across the higher terrain. The highest elevations of eastern Tucker county could see gusts around 45 mph, but held off on a wind advisory at this time with the recent downward trend in expected wind gusts. The front should exit to the east by 4-5 PM, ending the severe storm potential. The deepening upper trough is then progged to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region later today into tonight, with some lake enhancement also possible as cold advection occurs. The precipitation should be tapering off by the time the coldest air arrives Saturday morning, so other than a potential for a few snowflakes mixing in north of I-80 and in the ridges, no snow is expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... The upper trough should exit the East Coast by late Saturday/Saturday night, as a low deepens/closes off the Carolina coast. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the Upper Ohio Valley region, with light wind and mainly clear skies. This should result in efficient radiational cooling, with a frost/freeze potential across the area. Frost advisories/freeze warnings may be needed. Some frost will be possible again Sunday night with surface high pressure overhead. KEY MESSAGE 3... Model ensembles indicate the closed low/trough should persist off of the SE Coast, with another trough over the Western CONUS. Areas from the Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region should be under a ridge, with dry weather expected from Sunday into late next week. Temperatures are also expected to moderate back to near or just above seasonable levels by mid week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered showers continue todevelop in warm advection, and under a low level jet. A thunderstorm is also possible with elevated instability in place, though the probability was too low to include in any TAF sites. Improvement to VFR is expected as the warm front moves north, and the wind veers from SE to SW. Strong surface low pressure is expected to track across southern Ontario to New England today, pulling a strong cold front across the region. A line of showers is expected to develop this morning as the front moves across Ohio. Building shear and instability should result in the line intensifying as it moves east later this morning into the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts are possible in some of the stronger showers/storms that are able to mix down some of the strong wind aloft (10kft wind from 50-60kt.) Included a TEMPO mention for thunder east of a ZZV-PHD line as FROPA occurs. Cold advection and a crossing upper trough should maintain showers across the area into tonight, with MVFR cigs expected. Gusty SW wind this morning should shift to the WNW after FROPA, with gusts from 20-30kt. Outlook... Rain showers and MVFR cigs should continue into Friday night as the upper trough crosses, and some lake enhancement occurs. VFR and diminishing wind is expected Saturday under building high pressure. VFR should then continue under the high through at least the middle of next week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...WM  534 FXUS63 KDDC 160612 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 112 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong high pressure toward the north promotes elevated pressure gradient, resulting in breezy conditions today - High pressure moves overhead tonight, reducing winds and leading to widespread frost/freeze Saturday morning - Difference in timing is noted, but storm system late next week into next weekend could bring next precipitation chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong 1042 mb surface high pressure is currently centered over eastern MT and northern WY. A 1006 mb surface low is also centered over the Great Lakes. Between these features, an elevated pressure gradient is present, leading to breezy northwest winds across the forecast area later this morning. Bumped up the winds and gusts a few notches over NBM consensus, so expect winds 20-30 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Winds will gradually diminish as aforementioned high pressure begins to move southward through this afternoon and situates over the area late this afternoon. With clear skies and calm winds, expect a widespread freeze tonight and into Saturday morning. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area to account for this likelihood. Areas west of Route 283 will have a better potential for a harder, killing freeze with temperatures dropping into the middle 20s. Areas along and east of Route 283 still has a high probability of freezing temperatures, but generally temperatures are expected to be in the 29-32 degree range. These colder temperatures are short lived as return southerly flow emerges as the high pressure continues eastward over the central Mississippi Valley into this weekend. High temperatures are expected to be in the 60s on Saturday, with 70s returning Sunday. Lows in this timeframe will be in the mid to upper 30s Sunday morning, and 40s by Monday morning. Temperatures continue to gradually build back around 80 by mid to late week as a ridge builds in ahead of a deepening and digging trough across the Western U.S. through next week. Our next chance of precipitation increases by late week next week and perhaps into next weekend. Globals differ on timing and placement of a potential development of a possible lee cyclone. GFS is a bit more progressive and farther north with the ENS slower, stronger, and farther south. In either case, should be on the warm side of the storm. Instability is meager among the models, leading to thunderstorm chance uncertainty. With the sweeping cold front getting well into the Gulf, any potential moisture return back into our area may be difficult to accomplish. POPs are low in the forecast as of now, with only chance categories around 30-40% Thursday and Friday. Climatologically, continued widespread rains like we've seen are harder to come by in these typically drier months. Otherwise, plenty of time to see how this upcoming pattern shakes out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist across the TAF period at all terminals. Northwest winds will continue to be 15-20 knots increasing to 20-25 knots by this afternoon. As high pressure nears overhead Friday night into Saturday winds will lighten and be more variable to end the period. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...Bennett  902 FXUS61 KBUF 160603 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 203 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain and gusty winds through this evening. 2) Much colder tonight through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. 3) An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday and lasts most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain and gusty winds through this evening. A sharp mid level trough will advance east across the Great Lakes today through tonight. An associated surface low will steadily deepen through the period as it moves through southern Ontario province today, then northeast down the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight to the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. This system has captured a plume of deep moisture, with PWAT values briefly rising to around 1.75" in the warm sector this morning. A period of strong isentropic upglide and moisture transport will move northeast across the eastern Great Lakes this morning as a warm front races northeast across the area. Ascent across the warm front will be enhanced by a 55+ knot low level jet. The cold front will quickly follow, moving southeast across the area this afternoon and bringing another period of low level convergence and additional showers. DPVA ahead of the mid level trough and strong right entrance region jet dynamics will lag behind the passage of the cold front, allowing for periods of light rain to continue this afternoon and evening even after the surface cold front passes by. Elevated instability may support a few isolated weak thunderstorms this morning. A few more scattered thunderstorms may develop along the cold front late morning through early afternoon from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes along the advancing cold front as modest surface based instability develops. If these storms materialize they may produce gusty winds, with a better risk of severe thunderstorms well southeast of our area where greater instability will develop. Rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area, generally ranging from 0.25" to 1.0". Terrain will play an important role given the strong boundary layer flow, with downslope areas of the Lake Erie shore and Genesee Valley likely on the low end of the range, while higher terrain is more likely to be on the higher end of the range from upslope enhancement. There may be a few small areas that exceed 1.0" if embedded convection develops. Finally, it will be quite windy today as a strong 55+ knot low level jet propagates across the eastern Great Lakes. A brief window of downslope winds will develop early this morning along the Lake Erie shore, and later this morning north of the Tug Hill Plateau. The setup for downslope winds is not ideal, with a weak inversion and SSW flow not directly perpendicular to the terrain barriers. Given the marginal setup, expect wind gusts of up to 40 mph in downslope areas this morning, and 25 to 35 mph elsewhere. A brief period of stronger winds will also develop northeast of Lake Erie late morning through mid afternoon as the cold front crosses the area. Once again this setup it not ideal, with most of the strong winds aloft in the warm sector where lapse rates are poor. Boundary layer winds will quickly drop off later this afternoon following the cold frontal passage when lapse rates steepen. Expect peak gusts of up to 40 mph northeast of Lake Erie today. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much colder tonight through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. Strong cold advection will develop tonight in the wake of the departing low, with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the -5C to -8C rangeby Saturday morning. The cold air aloft will support increasing lake induced instability overnight with a brief lake response, but short NNW fetch and a rapidly drying synoptic scale airmass will keep lake effect muted and brief. Lake effect and upslope rain showers will develop southeast of the lakes tonight, with a few wet snowflakes possibly mixing in very late tonight through early Saturday morning before the lake effect showers quickly end by late morning. The best chance of a few snowflakes will be across higher terrain, but no accumulation is expected. The coldest airmass of the fall season so far will arrive for Saturday, with highs only in the 40s areawide, and even upper 30s across the highest terrain despite some afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will drop back into the lower 30s on the lake plains and 20s well inland Saturday night, with frost/freeze conditions likely. KEY MESSAGE 3...An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday and lasts most of next week. High pressure will drift from the Ohio Valley to southern New England Sunday, with southwesterly return flow quickly removing the brief shot of colder air. Temperatures will rebound into the 55 to 60 degree range by afternoon following the cold start. A strong ridge surface and aloft will then take up residence early next week across much of the central and eastern CONUS, while a slow moving cutoff low remains parked off the Carolina coast much of the week. This pattern will support dry weather most, or even all of next week with abundant sunshine and temperatures a little above average. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will move through southern Ontario province today, supporting periods of rain and gusty winds. A warm front will race northeast cross the eastern Great Lakes this morning, followed by a cold front this afternoon with each supporting periods of light to moderate rain. Areas of moderate rain will bring some reduction in VSBY, with CIGS generally running MVFR for lower elevations and IFR across higher terrain and the North Country today. Weak instability may support a few isolated thunderstorms as well, especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes this morning through early afternoon. Southerly winds will rapidly increase through the pre-dawn hours, then steadily veer to the west and northwest today with the approach and passage of the cold front. Gusts will run in the 20 to 30 knot range areawide, and up to 35 knots near Lake Erie and on the north slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau. Tonight, much colder air will pour into the eastern Great Lakes. Strong lake induced instability will develop with cold air aloft, although a rapidly drying airmass will keep the lake response muted and brief. Lake effect clouds will produce areas of MVFR CIGS overnight, with scattered showers southeast of the lakes and across higher terrain from lake effect and upslope. It will become cold enough to allow some wet snowflakes to mix in very late tonight, mainly across higher terrain. Outlook... Saturday...Areas of MVFR CIGS and scattered rain/wet snow showers early, improving to VFR. Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Steadily deepening low pressure will pass just north of the lower Great Lakes today, then move down the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight to the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. A trailing cold front will cross the lakes today, with southerly winds this morning quickly veering to the west and northwest this afternoon with the approach and passage of the cold front. Sustained winds will increase into the 20 to 30 knot range (with higher gusts) on both lakes today and remain elevated through Saturday morning before quickly diminishing Saturday afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. High end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Saturday morning on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock  933 FXUS64 KLCH 160604 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 104 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag for central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas is in effect 11 AM today to 1 AM Sat. Fire danger statement for the rest of the region. - Fire weather watch 9 AM to 9 PM Saturday for the entire CWA. - High winds Friday and Saturday will result in Wind Advisories as well as hazardous sea conditions. Gale conditions expected from this evening through Saturday afternoon. - Much colder and drier airmass will move in starting today. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s the rest of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Looking at RAP 500 mb analysis and satellite imagery, it's no secret where the cold front is: Stretching from southwest to northeast from Austin, TX to Memphis, TN. Winds ahead of the main frontal boundary are beginning to turn northerly. This influence is nearing the Northwest LA line and will soon spread low magnitude north winds into our northwest zones. This will start shaping up around sunrise. By mid-morning we should all feel a slight north breeze. The primary boundary then sweeps through swiftly, arriving to the Lakes Region early morning and sweeping offshore by noon. The initial wind gusts associated with its passage will abate slightly before the faucet cranks wide open and winds increase markedly this afternoon. Unlike some frontal passages where we see a brief period of strong north winds, these winds are set to increase and stick around through much of the weekend! All thanks to enhancement between the departing upper trof and attendant postfrontal high. Areas from coastal Texas across to coastal Louisiana and northeast into cenLA will see the longest duration of the highest speeds and thus are included in a wind advisory from 1 PM today through Saturday around noon. Winds 20 to 25 with gusts to 35 MPH can be expected. Winds will start slacking off Saturday afternoon as the upper high moves into the east central US, shutting off the northwest flow. With northerly winds come much cooler conditions! Highs today will be reflected by your location relative to the front. Interior Texas will only warm into the 70s when the cooler air arrives, whereas cenLA and southward should warm into the 80s before it cools off. Saturday, temps will struggle to hit the lower 70s. And with breezy conditions it'll feel cooler out. As for lows, mid 50s Saturday morning and upper 40s Sunday. How's that for a taste of fall! These windy and dry conditions are also conducive for rapidly growing wildfires. Be it a flicked cigarette butt or wind-induced powerline spark, small flames could become an uncontrollable problem SWIFTLY under these conditions. Whether you are under a burn ban or not, DO NOT BURN. Look to your local officials for best burn ban information and if you see a fire/smoke, say something! Take care out there and enjoy this cool off! 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Moisture is still in place near the surface and with the brief period of calm winds expected through sunrise, patchy fog may make a run at developing. Dense fog not anticipated. Around sunrise, forcing preceding a strong cold front will turn winds to the north. Winds then steadily increase through the morning to early afternoon and will remain elevated for a prolonged period. North winds with sustained values 13 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots can be expected from this afternoon to Saturday afternoon. Dry air ushering into the region will keep VFR ceilings in the forecast. MC/BN && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Onshore winds will persist through the pre-dawn hours. Winds will start turning offshore after sunrise in response to a nearing strong cold front set to move into coastal waters this afternoon. Winds will rapidly increase resulting in rapid onset hazardous sea conditions. Small Craft advisory is in effect this morning until 7 PM when it transitions to a Gale Warning for sustained winds 25 to 35 knots, gusts to 40 knots and 7 to 11 foot seas. This hazardous period will continue until midday saturday when winds begin to relax. Winds will diminish slowly Saturday evening but waves will remain very elevated into Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Winds will begin turning north ahead of the approaching cold front in the coming predawn hours. Much stronger north winds will then spread southeast through the morning, reaching the coastline by roughly 10 AM and the Lower Atchafalaya by noon. Winds will then increase in the afternoon and will remain strong overnight into Saturday morning. Much cooler conditions will arrive today with dry air and lower RH lagging behind. Areas within the red flag warning today will see RH minimums 30 to 35 percent overlapping with north winds 10 to 20 MPH and gusts to 30 MPH. There is a fire weather watch area wide Saturday to account for RH minimums 25 to 30 percent combining with north-northeast winds 10 to 20 and gusts to 30 MPH. Winds will begin to diminish Saturday afternoon. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>030. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154- 241>243-252>254. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ029-032-033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254. TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-259-260. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ515-516-615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ430-432-435-436. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11 AVIATION...11  800 FXUS63 KARX 160620 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest wind with scattered showers are expected this morning. There is a potential (40-60%) for wind gusts to reach 45 mph, primarily along and west of the Mississippi River. - Near to below freezing temperatures are forecast for tonight into Saturday morning. A freeze is very likely (70-100%), particularly north of I-94. A Freeze Warning is now in effect for the area. - Dry and warmer conditions are forecast for Sunday into the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today: Breezy with Scattered Showers A positively tilted H500 trough will continue to move east and dig south across the central CONUS throughout the day today. At the surface, a cold front has already moved south of the region and northwest to north wind will prevail in its wake. Sufficient moisture should remain in place to generate some scattered showers this morning. The shower activity should wane by mid-day as the synoptic lift exits off to the east. What will be more noticeable, will be the northwest to north wind for the first half of the day. The wind will continue to increase through the night and should peak after sunrise through mid-day. The stronger wind will be aided in part by a tightening surface pressure gradient combined with a LLJ at H850 upwards of 40-45 kts. The newest NBM data continues to paint the higher probabilities for gusts of 45 mph or higher (40-60%) across northeastern Iowa into southwestern Minnesota. The wind will finally decrease this afternoon but moreso this evening into the overnight hours. Tonight into Saturday: Freeze Very Likely Area Wide. Colder air will continue to stream southeast over the Midwest into the Great Lakes region today into Saturday morning. Drier mid-level air moves in which will aid in clearing out the clouds and clear skies are expected throughout the night. The clearing skies combined with cooler airmass and light winds will lead to really good radiational cooling tonight. Overnight lows should be able to easily drop down into the mid to low 30s, with some locations across west central Wisconsin potentially dropping into the mid to lower 20s. The entire area has at least a 70% chance to drop down to freezing and at least a 30% chance to drop down to 28 degrees, or the hard freeze threshold. The Freeze Watch has been converted to a Freeze Warning as confidence in freezing to sub-freezing temperatures continues to increase. Sunday into Next Week: Mostly Dry and Warmer Conditions Synoptic scale ridging returns to the central and eastern CONUS late this weekend into early next week. This pattern will be quite favorable for temperatures to quickly rise back up to near to above average as early as Sunday. The afternoon high temperatures should rise by a few degrees each day through the middle of next week. This pattern will not be favorable for precipitation chances so dry conditions are anticipated to start the next work week. That may change as we get into the later half of next week as a trough digs across the western CONUS and should eventually move east, but this is about a week out so confidence in any one scenario panning out is very low at this point in time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR cigs will continue to overspread the region overnight as post- frontal low-level stratus overspreads the region. As this occurs, embedded showers with some weak instability will occasionally reduce visibilities to MVFR at times this morning. Some IFR cigs cannot be ruled out during this period, however probabilities guidance in the HREF and NBH are not overly confident west of the Mississippi River (30-50% chance). MVFR cigs persist through early afternoon, until guidance generally agrees on quickly clearing out cigs towards evening. Otherwise, winds will remain strong from the north-northwest throughout much of the daytime hours with sustained winds of 15-25 kts with gusts as high as around 35 kts, primarily during the mid-morning through early afternoon. Winds will quickly decrease after sunset with clearing skies by 06z Saturday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ079- 086>088-094>096. IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ008>011- 018-019-029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Muscha AVIATION...Naylor  676 FXUS62 KRAH 160615 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 215 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * A backdoor front and post-frontal low overcast has drifted a little farther swwd than previously forecast and will result in LIFR-IFR ceilings at all cntl NC TAF sites except probably FAY this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 227 PM Thursday... 1) Near-record heat will continue through Friday. 2) A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Fri evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. && .DISCUSSION... As of 227 PM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Near-record heat will continue through Friday. While a front across Virginia has dipped into north-eastern North Carolina, temperatures have still climbed into the 80s near the VA/NC border, with mid to upper 80s elsewhere across the area. As of 1pm, all three climate sites are within 5 degrees of their respective daily record highs, and records could be tied or surpassed over the next couple of hours. The front should retreat back into Virginia overnight, allowing for uniform low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. A strong southwest wind on Friday will result in gusts between 20-30 mph, and will give one more chance to reach record highs between 85 and 90 degrees. While clouds will slowly increase during the afternoon, it appears that any rain should hold off until after sunset. KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Fri evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. A strong cold frontal passage will bring a drastic pattern-shift this weekend and bring the greatest impact to the sensible weather, especially Fri night into Sat. This front will be driven by a deep surface low < 1000 mb racing across the Northeast Fri evening and equally, if not more so, anomalous surface high pressure exceeding 1035 mb diving into the southern Plains and elongating up into the Mid-MS Valley Sat afternoon. Hi-res guidance continues to support a high-PoP/low-QPF signal as anafrontal showers/sprinkles appears likely, especially across the northern Piedmont into the northern Coastal Plain where strong FGEN through the lower/mid-lvls overlaps intense H5 height falls (> 100m falls in 12hrs) and DPVA. This pattern will also support the development of an narrow cold- frontal rainband (NCFR), which could result in a period of enhanced winds and wind gusts along and immediately behind the NCFR with rapid pressures rises in its wake. Momentum transfer at the top of the mixed layer in point soundings suggest gusts may reach in excess of 40 mph with the NCFR passage. NWP guidance continues to flip-flop on whether the basal portion of the strong mid/upper level trough will pinch off and become a closed/cutoff low and its proximity to the Carolina coast. AIGFS deterministic runs line up with the AIFS ensemble solutions and favor a farther south and east development of the closed/cutoff low between the Southeast coast, Bahamas, and Bermuda (physics-based guidance favor its development immediately along the Carolina coast), which would favor less rain chances and cooler overnight and early morning lows Sun through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 AM Friday... A backdoor front and post-frontal low overcast has drifted a little farther swwd than previously forecast and will result in LIFR-IFR ceilings at all cntl NC TAF sites except probably FAY this morning. The nwd retreat of the front across the Middle Atlantic today should cause the overcast to disperse and lift around 12Z, with following VFR conditions and gusty swly winds that will develop with daytime heating/mixing by early this afternoon. Scattered showers are likely to develop along a pre-frontal trough invof INT/GSO by ~21-22Z, then linger until a cold front and gusty nwly surface winds moves through cntl NC later this evening-tonight. Outlook: An area of stratiform, anafrontal rain will blossom behind the passing cold front later tonight into Sat, with related low VFR to MVFR restrictions, as an intense upper-level trough and jet streak pivot toward the Carolinas. Surface winds will veer to nly and remain strong and gusty especially during the daytime through the weekend, in s tight MSL pressure gradient between strong high pressure that will build in from the west and coastal low pressure that will deepen and meander of the coast of the Carolinas. Should surface winds diminish as expected each night, a risk of low-level wind shear will exist both Sat and Sun night. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/14/2026 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/AS AVIATION...MWS  380 FXUS64 KSHV 160626 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 126 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A powerful, dry cold front will be moving through the region Friday morning, bringing much cooler temperatures, significantly drier air, and gusty northwest winds. - A Red Flag Warning is in effect to highlight increased fire weather danger from incoming dry air and gusty winds. - Behind the front, Saturday will see cooler than average temperatures, followed by a steady warming trend into next week, with dry weather throughout. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent guidance has continued to speed up the progression of this cold front pushing in from the northwest overnight tonight and into Friday morning. Some radar returns have been present along the front, which is currently draped from north central TX to western AR. There could be some light showers that accompany the front as it begins to push into the Four State Region overnight, but very little accumulation is expected. The I-30 corridor should cool into the 50s just before daybreak Friday thanks to the fropa and peak radiational cooling. Current guidance has the cold front stretching roughly from Deep East TX up into southwest AR by sunrise and pushing southeast of the region by mid-late morning. The front will immediately bring cooler temperatures and the northwesterly wind shift. A Wind Advisory has been issued to account for sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible through Friday evening. The drier airmass is expected to lag a few hours behind the front, fully encompassing the area by early afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the same time period to account for the elevated fire danger that will be in place with the gusty winds and RH's of 25 to 35 percent. With the conditions on Friday and the prolonged drought, wildfire starts and spreading will occur much quicker. Public interests should consider temporarily postponing any outdoor burning. These products may need extending into the weekend depending on how incoming data trends. Even with the front long pushed to the southeast, more seasonable temperatures will linger into the weekend. Temperatures could dip down into the upper 30s for portions of southwest AR early Sunday morning with other areas dropping into the 40s. But highs in the 60s and 70s will once again give way to mid to upper 80s by the middle of next week as ridging redevelops over the southeast CONUS. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For the 16/06z TAF Period...A cold front will continue to push through the region overnight into early Friday morning. Winds in wake of the front will shift to the northwest and will be breezy at times, with gusts up to 35 mph. MVFR cigs will also move in behind the front through around the lunch hours on Friday. Those cigs will go away, but will keep some mid and high clouds over the region through the end of the TAF period. Winds will also diminish by the end of the period, but gusts could still approach 20 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 1 AM Saturday. /20/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed during the day Friday in the event of wildfire development. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 50 68 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 50 70 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 42 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 46 68 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 46 69 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 48 67 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 48 68 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 51 70 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 &&.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...20  992 FXUS63 KBIS 160621 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 121 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty northwest winds will continue to diminish overnight from northwest to southeast. - Widespread freezing temperatures expected late tonight into early Friday morning, especially over western locations. - Notably milder temperatures along with dry weather to end the week and start next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 117 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For late night update main change was to expire the wind advisory throughout our area. Winds will continue to gradually diminish as high pressure settles in over the region. Otherwise, remainder of forecast looks good. UPDATE Issued at 949 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Winds have been steadily diminishing over the past few hours, therefore opted to cancel the Wind Advisory early for far northwestern North Dakota. Winds elsewhere are mostly below Advisory criteria though closer overall, so will let things play out across the rest of the CWA for now. Otherwise, sky cover is steadily eroding in western Montana and far southeastern Saskatchewan. Just how quickly this sky cover erodes will greatly impact exactly where freezing conditions occur tonight into Friday morning. Otherwise, isolated light rain showers persist across central North Dakota. UPDATE Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gusty northwesterly winds continue across the state. While the general trend this evening through the overnight hours should be a gradual decrease in winds from northwest to southeast, increasing pressure rises could lead to another relatively brief surge this evening. Therefore, no changes to the Wind Advisory are expected over the next few hours. Otherwise, isolated to scattered light rain showers continue mainly for the eastern two thirds of the state. These will dissipate as skies clear from northwest to southeast tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, strong S/WV trough moving southeast across the Northern Plains today, with an associated sfc cold front now to our south. Behind the frontal passage earlier, strong northwest winds have developed along with the extensive low level stratus filtering into the state. Peak gusts have been right around 50 mph, and should continue to be gusty for several more hours till diminishing this evening/early Friday morning. Thus wind headlines remain on track. With the mid level wave, isolated/scattered light rain showers moving south/southeast, so will maintain this in the forecast. Best moisture accumulation will be over my east, where a few hundreths will be possible. S/WV troughing to our east tonight with a high amplitude ridge to our west. Strong surface high pressure builds into the western Dakotas later tonight, thus the decrease in winds forecast. In addition, CAA coupled with decreasing clouds and the decrease in winds will see temperatures dropping into the 20s west and north central, and to near freezing south central. Should remain above freezing southeast where winds and clouds linger the longest. Thus, we opted to issue a Freeze Warning for western and much of central North Dakota late tonight through early Friday. South/southwest return flow for Friday, yet the cold start will only see highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s despite a mostly clear sky as well. Fire weather may become an issue southwest Friday and Saturday, but right now looks sub-marginal. Upper level ridge to our west deamplifies into the weekend as it moves east, morphing into a quasi-zonal flow regime across the Northern Plains into next week. This pattern will bring dry weather conditions to the region, along with temperatures at or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06ZSATURDAY/... Issued at 117 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Areas of MVFR ceilings over western and central North Dakota will gradually improve to VFR during the overnight hours. Gusty north to northwesterly winds will also continue to gradually diminish. Southerly winds will then be on the increase this afternoon over western North Dakota, spreading east this evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-031>033-035-040>044- 055>062. && $$ UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...JJS  844 FXUS64 KLZK 160620 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 -Isolated to widely scattered showers possible across the central and north central half of the state through early this morning. -Elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on today over portions of southern to southeast Arkansas. Red Flag Warning has been issued for far southern sections of the area for today. -Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions over portions of northern Arkansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Radar early this morning shows scattered showers across parts of central and north central Arkansas. The showers are associated with the upper shortwave trough moving across the central and northern plain dragging an attendant cold front through the state through this afternoon. Behind the front, cooler and breezy conditions will develop and then persist across the state through at least early this afternoon across the state. Winds will veer from south/southeast ahead of the boundary to north/northwest behind the boundary. Winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common with gusts to 30 mph possible across the state. By this evening, the upper trough will push into the eastern Great Lakes region and cold front will exit the state, with northwest flow becoming established across the state. Model guidance keeps the state within northwest flow through at least the first half of the upcoming work week. The aforementioned trough that is dragging a cold front through the state today, will move to the lower Appalachians region on Saturday. The trough will move to the Carolinas region by Sunday with both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF showing the trough deepening by Saturday night into Sunday. At the same time, high pressure over the Bay of Campeche will expand northward into the western and northwest Gulf coast region Saturday night into Sunday. The cooler and drier air behind the front filtering into the state will lead to morning lows across the state in the 40s across the southern two thirds of the state this weekend, Lows across the northern half will be in the mid to upper 30s on Saturday and Sunday. Some patchy frost in higher terrain areas is not out of the question. High temperatures this weekend will run around 5 degrees below normal for the state through the end of the weekend. As we head into the new work week, high pressure will continue to expand northward into the central Plains by late Sunday into Monday, as the upper trough and cut off low that brought cooler and drier air to the state continues to strengthen/deepen over the eastern seaboard. The upper trough will push off the eastern US coast as into the Atlantic Ocean by Monday. This will allow for the ridge axis of the ridge to move westward toward Arkansas with winds veer from north/northwest on Sunday night into Monday to south/southeast by Monday across the state. With the return of south to southeast flow across the state, temperatures will remain to above normal by the middle of the next work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front continues to push through the state bringing gusty north to northwest winds behind the boundary. An area of showers will move across parts of north and central Arkansas early this morning will diminish around sunrise in eastern Arkansas. MVFR cigs across northern terminals will lifting to VFR cigs around sunset. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty north to northwest winds will persist through the late afternoon, then gradually diminish as the front and upper trough exit the state and push east of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 69 45 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 74 44 68 39 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 62 39 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 70 44 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 70 46 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 74 48 67 43 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 68 41 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 64 42 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 67 45 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 72 44 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 70 43 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 71 44 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 71 46 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ065>069. && $$ DISCUSSION..76 AVIATION...76  031 FXUS61 KALY 160621 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk slightly northward to encompass the Mohawk Valley, all of the Capital Region and most of southern VT. The Slight Risk area has been slightly expanded north to include portions of Greene/Columbia counties. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, showers, and a few thunderstorms to the region today. Continued gusty and unseasonably chilly conditions are expected tonight into Saturday. A coating of snow is possible in the high terrain late tonight into Saturday morning. 2) Dry weather with temperatures moderating to near seasonable levels Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong cold front will approach from the west today as low pressure tracks into the St. Lawrence River Valley. For early this morning, a warm front will approach from the southwest with bands of rain passing through ahead of the front at the leading edge of a strengthening low level jet. Strong forcing and some elevated instability will allow for some locally heavy downpours and rumbles of thunder to occur toward and shortly after daybreak, especially across the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks, Capital/Saratoga and Lake George Region into southern VT. Rainfall rates of 0.25-0.50"/hour could lead to some ponding of water in poor drainage areas for the morning commute in these areas. As the low level jet translates overhead around and shortly after daybreak, strong south to southeast winds will be possible across portions of the Capital Region and within some north/south oriented valleys. Latest REFs suggest some gusts of 30-40 mph could occur in these areas through mid morning before decreasing as the core of the low level jet passes by and weakens. As the cold front approaches from the west during the afternoon hours, some surface-based destabilization should occur, especially if some breaks of sun can develop. Latest HREFs and REFs suggest SB CAPES of 100-250 J/kg developing for areas mainly south of I-90. Strengthening mid level winds will allow 0-6 km shear to increase to 50-60 KT amid this instability, parallel to the incoming front. This suggests the possibility of a low topped line of showers/thunderstorms to develop which could produce a few instances of damaging wind gusts. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms northward, now encompassing much of the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and southern VT, with the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) expanding just slightly north into portions of Greene/Columbia counties. Even in the absence of convection, as the front passes through, some brief wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible this evening. In the wake of the front, blustery conditions will develop tonight and continue into Saturday with northwest winds gusting 25-35 mph, perhaps a bit stronger Saturday morning as mixing deepens. Some lingering moisture in the wake of the front, partially from Lake Effect, will allow for some snow showers across higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT late tonight into Saturday morning, where some coatings to less than one half inch of snow accumulation will be possible. A few flurries/sprinkles could even occur across the eastern Catskills, the Berkshires, and at lower elevations such as the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region Saturday morning. High temperatures Saturday should only reach the 30s to lower 40s across higher elevations, with mainly 40s for valley regions. Combined with brisk winds, wind chill temperatures ("feels-like" temperatures) will be in the 20s/lower 30s for higher terrain, and 30s in valleys through much of the day. KEY MESSAGE 2... After an unseasonably cold morning Sunday with low temps mainly in the 20s, temperatures should moderate into the 50s for most areas by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to moderate to seasonable levels early next week with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s in valleys. Generally dry conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z/Saturday...VFR conditions initially will then deteriorate to MVFR as a warm front quickly approaches from the west bringing some showers. A few downpours may occur through mid morning, so will continue mention of PROB30 for possible IFR conditions. Mainly MVFR Cigs are expected through much of Friday, although KPOU may improve to VFR by late afternoon. A line of downpours along a cold front is anticipated to move through sometime between 20Z-24Z/Friday. Will mention PROB30 for IFR conditions associated with +SHRA at KALB/KGFL/KPSF, but due to some instability will mention +TSRA at KPOU. Will continue to mention low level wind shear at all sites starting early this morning, as a southerly jet of 40-45 kt at 2000 ft AGL moves overhead with sustained surface winds generally less than 15 kt. The LLWS should dissipate this afternoon. Surface winds will initially be variable less than 5 kt, becoming south-southeast and gradually increasing to 8-15 kt prior to daybreak, with gusts of 20-32 kt developing at KALB/KPSF. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24/35 AVIATION...24/07  551 FXUS65 KGGW 160627 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1227 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ridge over the region will bring warming temperatures, peaking on Saturday. - A cold front passage late on Saturday will drop temperatures back closer to normal for next week. - Dry conditions are expected through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure moving out of eastern Montana this morning with upper ridge building into the northern Rockies. With the development of a chinook arch and lee trough, temperatures will be warming over the next few days. Pressure gradient between the high and the trough could bring winds up close to Lake Wind Criteria briefly midday, but will be fairly marginal and short lived. Shortwave ejecting from the eastern Pacific trough will flatten out the ridge over the weekend, for a drop in temperatures on Sunday behind a cold front. Upper flow will turn increasingly southeast early next week with an upper low digging south off the west coast. By midweek flow will split with the upper low cutting off from the Canadian northern near zonal flow. Next chance for precipitation appears to be late next week as the closed low moves onshore and begins to open up. This will allow it to phase with a northern stream trough and pull Pacific moisture northward through the Great Basin. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: - There is high confidence in conditions remaining largely benign throughout the forecast period. - No deviations from the NBM. && .AVIATION... VFR. Generally clear skies expected through the morning with high pressure over the region. Low clouds in western North Dakota will continue moving eastward, but could see a little valley fog, mainly at KOLF or KSDY around 11z to 15z. High clouds will spread across the region through the day. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  785 FXUS64 KMOB 160629 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Strong wind gusts expected to pose an enhanced threat for additional numerous downed trees and power outages over portions of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area on Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires. - Dangerous marine conditions developing Friday night through the weekend due to strong winds and high seas. In addition, a High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Monitoring the potential for fog development tonight across the area as low level moisture gradually increases and winds become light. This will favor fog, some potentially dense in some areas especially across coastal Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle where moisture will be greatest. At this time, it appears that limited coverage will preclude the need for a dense fog advisory. A potent upper level trough will dive southeast across the Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys tonight and Friday then off of the Southeast U.S. coast by Friday night. This will drive a strong cold front across the region later this afternoon and tonight. Moisture advection in advance of this front should remain limited, but may be enough along with lift along the front to produce a few showers today along the coast. Most areas should remain dry with the frontal passage. Another potentially high impact weather situation is likely to develop behind a strong cold front that will move through the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening. Behind the front, strong cold air advection and mixing will support the development of strong northerly wind gusts later Friday night through Saturday. This raises concerns especially across areas that experienced significant damage across portions of the western Florida Panhandle into interior portions of southwest Alabama. Latest short-term high resolution model guidance is suggesting the potential for several hours of wind gusts approaching 40 mph late Friday night into Saturday morning. The strength of these winds will have the potential to down numerous additional trees that were damaged by the extreme wind event associated with the sting jet on the west side of Hurricane Isaias. This would likely result in additional power outages in the hardest hit areas. We plan to issue a wind advisory this evening and add special wording to account for this threat. Temperatures will drop significantly behind the front with high temperatures over the weekend only recovering into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows in the middle to upper 40s over interior areas to the lower 50s near the coast. Upper level ridging will rebuild into the forecast area early next week with dry weather and slowly moderating temperatures anticipated through next week. /JLH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Patchy fog is expected overnight with MVFR conditions possible. VFR condition follow for Saturday with gusty northerly winds developing Friday evening into Friday night. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Light southeasterly winds will persist through the tonight, slowly becoming more southwesterly Friday morning. Strong northerly winds are forecast for Friday night as a strong cold front passes over area waters. A Gale warning is now in effect for all coastal waters Friday night and Saturday, continuing through Saturday night well offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is likely for protected waters Saturday night as northerly winds begin to gradually ease. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the offshore waters Sunday through Monday, with Small Craft Exercise Caution in the bays and sounds. /JLH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI FOR SATURDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS... Areas of fog will continue to develop through sunrise with the potential for a few patches of dense fog near the coast. Any fog will quickly dissipate Friday morning. Dry conditions are expected over most of the area on Friday except for isolated showers near the coast. A dry day is expected Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity values remain above critical levels Friday, but may see daytime relative humidity values dropping into the 30-35% range in some area. Surface winds may be a problem Friday afternoon and Saturday after a strong cold front moves across the area Friday afternoon. Transport winds will be mostly westerly to northwesterly on Friday and northerly Saturday. Dispersion index values will be fair to good on Friday and Saturday. Relative humidity values on Saturday fall to between 25-30% by Saturday afternoon which will increase the wildfire danger. /JLH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 86 53 70 51 / 10 10 0 0 Pensacola 84 56 71 54 / 20 10 0 0 Destin 82 58 72 56 / 10 10 0 0 Evergreen 87 50 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 88 49 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 86 50 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 86 54 70 50 / 10 10 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060-261>266. FL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206. MS...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ078-079. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>636. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$  731 FXUS62 KTAE 160629 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 229 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Another round of fog is likely again this morning across much of the area. - A Gale Warning is in effect over our waters for winds up to 30-40kts for Saturday. A Wind Advisory over land for wind gusts up to 35 mph in the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama for weakened and vulnerable trees and structures damaged from Hurricane Isaias. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 continue today, then turning sharply cooler this weekend following Friday's cold front resulting in highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows in the 50s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today will start out similarly to yesterday. Patchy to areas of fog during the early morning hours through daybreak can be expected. Fog may be dense at times, which could result in a Dense Fog Advisory later this morning. Light westerly winds are expected this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Later tonight, a strong cold front will approach the region. Winds will quickly shift from the northwest to northerly and increase to 20-25 mph sustained with gusts up to 35 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Eastern Florida Panhandle through the day Saturday. Due to the ongoing clean-up efforts following Hurricane Isaias, the Wind Advisory also extends inland for our Central Time Zone counties into SE Alabama for precautionary reasons to emphasize the elevated wind threat that may impact weakened structures and trees. Temperatures will noticeably change with Saturday's highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Precipitation is not expected with the cold front; however there is a slight chance for showers in the extreme southeast Big Bend Friday night into Saturday, prior to the front's arrival. The next system that we will need to monitor during the short term is the potential for a coastal low developing off the Mid- Atlantic Coast. While it won't directly impact our area, it has the potential to either keep us drier and sunnier (track closer to the Mid- Atlantic) or keep us cloudy, cooler and misty (track farther off the coast). So that'll be something to monitor as we go through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The overall upper level trough associated with Friday's cold front will remain over the region through the weekend. This will keep the cool temperatures and dry air for the next few days. Highs will slowly warm into the upper 70s to low 80s by the end of the period, with overnight lows remaining in the 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR vsbys will develop overnight, perhaps IFR at ABY and VLD in the predawn hours. Fog will dissipate by mid morning with VFR conds prevailing. Attention then turns to a cold front entering the area this evening. Winds will quickly clock to northwest behind the passage at ECP, DHN, and ABY 3-4Z with speeds around 15 knots and gusts 25-27 knots. Frontal passage at TLH and VLD was at the end of the period so will include in the 12Z TAFs. Little to no rainfall expected with the frontal passage, perhaps some light rain at ECP in the late afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tranquil boating conditions continue for today through this afternoon. Tonight, a strong cold front will push through the waters, sharply turning our winds northerly and increasing to Gales. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Warning with gusty winds up to 40 kts and seas will sharply rise to 5-8 feet, and up to 10 feet in our offshore waters by Saturday. The winds and seas will remain elevated through the weekend and into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High dispersions for districts north of I-10 this afternoon with transport winds around 10-15 mph out of the west. Later tonight, a strong cold front will rush in. Winds will shift northwesterly to northerly, and increasing to around 20-25 mph overnight through the day Saturday with gusts approaching 40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for early Saturday morning in our Central Time Zone districts through the early evening hours. There is a slight chance for light showers ahead of the front late Friday night into Saturday morning. Healthy/moderate dispersions are forecast for Saturday afternoon with a few pockets in the Big Bend region of high dispersions. MinRH values following the frontal passage will fall into the mid to upper 30%s for the afternoon hours, yet remain above critical. Recent soil moisture contents should keep the region out of critical fire weather concerns; however we will be monitoring the wind and gusts as fuels could start drying out through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Our rivers that are in Action stage are continuing on a downward trend. Little to no rain expected for the next several days. No further flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 62 72 53 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 86 59 72 55 / 0 20 0 0 Dothan 86 54 70 50 / 0 10 0 0 Albany 88 56 71 50 / 0 10 0 0 Valdosta 88 61 72 51 / 0 10 0 0 Cross City 89 66 75 55 / 10 10 10 0 Apalachicola 84 64 72 57 / 10 20 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ007>013-108-112. GA...None. AL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ735. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  779 FXUS62 KCAE 160629 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 229 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Near-record warmth for one more day. - 2. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Near-record warmth for one more day. Upper ridging lingers over the Southeast for one more day today before a strong cold front moves in. This will keep near record highs this afternoon with temps maxing out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. A significant cool-down is on the way this weekend, and will be very noticeable! Key Message 2: A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. Our first true cold front of the season is on track for this weekend. Guidance has slowed the front down slightly on Friday night over the last couple of days; even still, it is forecast to pass through the area between Friday night and Saturday morning. Cooler air is forecast to rush into the area behind it, with strong gusty winds expected as well. The trough forcing all of this has trended much sharper over the last several days, with guidance now showing some form of the trough cutting off to our east by Saturday night or Sunday. Models remain a bit all over the place still with the evolution and eventual placement of the cutoff low. Regardless, some showers are likely early on Saturday as the front clears, moisture lags a bit behind, and intense synoptic lift allows for some rain to develop. Winds are forecast to be quite breezy on Saturday as well. Latest time/height plots suggest that wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible during the day as a cool and dry airmass rapidly advects into the area. We will likely need a Lake wind Advisory and bordering on Wind Advisory Criteria, especially if the coastal low develops a bit earlier and closer to the Carolinas. Sunday will be quite chilly with temps in the low 60s and overnight lows in the 40s. From there, a modest warm up closer to normal is expected into next week. Given the presence of northeasterly flow and strong high pressure, cool temps and dry air is expected deep into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions expected outside of possible morning stratus or fog along the Coastal Plain. Clear skies and light and variable or calm winds will continue overnight. Some guidance hints at possible stratus/fog developing along the Coastal Plain impacting our typical fog- prone sites of OGB and AGS. We have seen some brief fog-stratus already at these sites, and this will likely continue periodically overnight. So left the tempo in place. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions through the period. A strong cold front will approach the region on Friday and an increased pressure gradient will result in southwesterly winds increasing to around 10 knots after 15z with some higher gusts around 17 knots likely by afternoon. Winds will shift later Friday night from the northwest but that is expected to happen after this TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A front will move across the area Friday night into Saturday. Although precipitation is expected to be limited, breezy W/SW winds are expected Friday evening shifting to a northerly direction on Saturday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ND AVIATION...42  914 FXUS63 KGRB 160630 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 130 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 New Information added to update section .UPDATE... Issued at 121 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Per coordination with surrounding offices, upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for portions of central, east-central and portions of northeast WI. Winds are expected to drop off late tonight across the Door peninsula, thus have added a Frost Advisory where areas of frost will be possible over interior and southern sections of the county. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain continues tonight, becoming scattered into Friday morning. Most locations should see an additional 0.25 to 0.5" of rainfall. - Northwest winds increase on Friday, with gusts between 30 and 40 mph expected. Locally higher gusts to 45 mph will be possible along the lakeshore counties. Gale force gusts are expected across marine zones. - A Freeze Warning is in effect late tonight into early Saturday morning for much of central, east-central and portions of northeast Wisconsin. - A Frost Advisory has been posted for late tonight into early Saturday morning for Door County. Areas of frost are anticipated over interior and southern sections of the county. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain chances through Friday... Radar and surface obs show widespread stratiform rain ongoing late this evening as cold front infringes on northwest Wisconsin and phased upper trough approaches the Great Lakes. Expect rain to become more scattered in coverage overnight into Friday morning with the loss of moisture advection and upper jet support, though most locations should still pick up an addition 0.25 to 0.5" of QPF. Probabilities for receiving 0.5" of rain through tonight sit at around 30 to 60%, highest over far northeast Wisconsin where modest mid-level FGEN resides in proximity to the surface low. Rain then tapers off from west to east late Friday morning, though wrap around moisture may keep showers or drizzle around over east-central Wisconsin through the afternoon. Winds... Gradient winds ramp up Friday morning as a surge of CAA accompanies northwesterly wind shift and building high pressure over the Plains. Deep daytime mixing will tap into 40 to 45 knot winds at 850 mb Friday afternoon, resulting in a high confidence (60 to 90%) setup for widespread surface gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Only caveat will be Door County, where locally higher gusts will be bumping up against advisory criteria. HREF currently shows a 20 to 40% chance for gusts exceeding 44 mph over northern Door, with sustained winds also coming within a mph or two of criteria. Current thinking would be to hold off on an advisory for the time being due to low confidence, though CAM trends will have to be monitored on subsequent shifts. Temperatures... Intrusion of arctic high paired with stout northwesterly flow will result in a brief spell of well below normal temperatures Friday and Friday night. Highs will struggle to meet 50 degrees for many locations, with lows then plummeting into the mid 20s to low 30s. Setup still looking favorable (50 to 70%) for a hard freeze Friday night, so have retained the Freeze Watch. A rapid pattern shift to more seasonable temperatures then occurs over the weekend as return flow sets up and upper flow de- amplifies. As such, highs are progged to read mainly in the mid to upper 60s through at least mid-week, with several shots at seeing 70 degrees. Extended... High pressure looks to be the main driver of the synoptic pattern through at least the middle of next week, with no organized systems on the horizon. More active pattern then looks to set up toward the end of next week as upper flow re-amplifies, though details are few this far out. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Light rain or drizzle will continue overnight and then on Friday morning. IFR CIGS will improve into the MVFR category, then VFR by early to mid afternoon. North/northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts of 30-40 kts expected late morning through mid afternoon before winds ease during the late afternoon and early evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gale Warning remains on track for the Bay and Lake as northerly winds ramp up following cold FROPA later this evening. HREF probabilistic guidance is currently showing a 65 to 95% signal for 10-meter wind gusts exceeding 39 mph, which should translate pretty well to gale force gusts over our marine zones. Waves will build 4 to 7 ft on the Bay and 6 to 10 ft on the Lake during this time. Have opted to throw out a wind down Small Craft Advisory along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters on this shift, as waves remain elevated through around 08Z Saturday as winds shift to more westerly. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ020-030-031- 035>040-045-048>050-073-074. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ022. && $$ UPDATE.........Eckberg DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Eckberg MARINE.........Goodin  526 FXUS63 KDVN 160635 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 135 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning and expanded slightly to the south and east. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area tonight. Frost is be possible Saturday night but not as widespread. - Winds gusting up to 45 mph can be expected during the daylight hours Friday. The probability of wind headlines being needed is 30-35%. - A warm-up next week will send temperatures back above normal for late October. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Freeze warnings and frost advisories have been issued for late Friday night into Saturday morning. Winds will gust up to 45 mph during the daylight hours Friday as the trop fold and wind max move through the area. Interestingly, the very short range models do not push the 45+ mph gusts into the area. Cloud cover will limit the amount of deep mixing but I would not be surprised if some localized gusts to 50 mph occur. Trends with the winds will need to be watched today for a possible wind headline. The current probabilities of a wind headline is 30-35 percent. Tonight into Saturday morning the key message is the cold temperatures. Areas roughly north of a Sterling, IL to Fairfield, IA line have at least a 50 percent probability of seeing temperatures around freezing. If the current negative delta trend on lows tonight continues, the freeze warning may need to be expanded further to the south and east. Frost is a given with winds dropping to 5 mph or less after midnight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Saturday night through Thursday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence on temperatures trending above normal. Saturday night into Sunday will be another chilly night with frost again possible but not as widespread as Friday night into Saturday. Headlines for frost may be needed. Starting Sunday and continuing through the week a general warm-up will be seen with temperatures trending above normal for late October. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Winds gusting up to 26 knots with a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions will be seen through 12z/16. After 12z/16 widespread MVFR CIGS will overspread the area with isolated SHRA. Cloud cover will limit the mixing but wind gusts up to 35 knots are likely that will create considerable low level mechanical turbulence. After 00z/17 winds in time will drop to under 10 knots with clearing skies. Frost is a certainty for any non-hangared aircraft. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076-077-087. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ078-088- 089-098-099. IL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ016>018- 024>026-034-035. MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ009-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...08  500 FXUS61 KBTV 160635 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 235 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 232 AM EDT Friday... No significant changes were made with this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 232 AM EDT Friday... 1. A strong storm system will bring widespread rain and gusty winds today, followed by much colder weather and mountain snow showers on Saturday. 2. Next week continues to look very quiet with temperatures near normal and high confidence of an extended dry period of weather. && .DISCUSSION... As of 232 AM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Low pressure is currently moving through central Michigan this morning, spreading rain across southern Ontario and into northern/central New York. Much of this rain isn't reaching the ground yet per NYS Mesonet observations, but expect it won't take much longer for the atmosphere to moisten enough for rain to arrive in earnest. This precipitation shield will continue to spread over New York and into Vermont early this morning as the low lifts along the St Lawrence Valley before shifting eastward just north of the international border. There are still some indications that one this first round of rain moves through, precipitation will turn more showery in nature with some spots getting a bit of a break around mid morning. Meanwhile, a 55+ kt 850 mb jet, currently moving into the eastern Great Lakes, will also make its way to our area. There's still some question how much of this will be able to mix to the ground as it will be somewhat coincident with the steadier rain, especially in northern New York. However, it will at least allow temperatures to surge into the upper 50s/low 60s. Mountain summits will be very windy as well, with gusts to 60 mph expected. Gusts will also likely be strong in the Champlain Valley and the northern slopes of the Greens, due to funneling down the valley and downsloping off the higher terrain. The aforementioned dry break could coincide with the jet's arrival at these areas, so mixing could be better as well. Hence still anticipate gusts up to 40 mph in these locations, with perhaps some briefly higher gusts at times. This could be enough to bring a few branches down, perhaps resulting in isolated power outages, but widespread impacts are not expected at this time. Elsewhere, gusts will remain in the 25 to 35 mph range. The low moves to our north by mid day, dragging its attendant cold front across northern New York and Vermont during the afternoon and early evening. The latest CAM guidance shows convective showers developing ahead of/along this front as it pushes southeastward. We'll have little to no instability given the early morning rainfall, so anticipate showers won't be organized or strong/severe in our area. Still, there may be a few rumbles of thunder, especially in southern Vermont. Total rainfall through the daylight hours today will be 0.50 to 1.0 inch, with locally higher amounts in the higher terrain. Winds will turn to the northwest behind the cold front, ushering in a much colder airmass. Moisture will linger for a time overnight, and the northwest flow will cause showers to focus on the favored western upslope sides of the Adirondacks and northern/central Greens. Rain will gradually transition to snow as temperatures fall overnight. Showers should wane in coverage through the night and especially Saturday morning as drier air works in behind a secondary front, coming to an end by afternoon. Between the brief timing of snow and the relatively warm ground, snow accumulations will be minimal and mainly confined to elevations above 1500 ft. Even there, accumulations will likely be half inch or less. The highest summits could see upwards of 2 inches or so. Saturday will be much colder, with highs only in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Sun should start to break out in the afternoon, but winds will remain brisk, with gusts 25 to 30 mph. The morning will start out with wind chills in the teens and 20s; the summits will likely feel like the single digits in the morning, with negative numbers possible. These wind chills improve only slightly through the day, so anyone who has outdoor plans should prepare for bitterly cold conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2: South to southwest flow will resume on Sunday, and we will moderate closer to seasonal norms with widespread 50s for highs under high pressure. This high pressure should shift north and east, then to start the work week, another high pressure over Quebec will dive southeastward into northern New England and the southern Canadian Maritimes, keeping our forecast area dry. Ahead of a weak back door cold front, daytime temperatures will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s Tuesday, decreasing slightly for the second half of the week. Nighttime temperatures next week fall into the mid 20s to lower 40s. Fire weather concerns will increase next week due to the long duration of dry weather anticipated, but winds will remain mostly light and terrain driven under high pressure. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Rainfall and gusty winds are expected to arrive from west to east throughout next few hours, with rain starting at MSS and SLK around 06Z-08Z Friday, then PBG, BTV, and RUT 07Z-09Z, then everywhere else by 08Z-10Z. Rain is likely to cause visibilities 3-6 miles or higher, though heavier periods are possible this morning. Winds will become strong aloft first (southerly to southwesterly 30-50 knots), making LLWS likely at all sites through 18Z-23Z Friday. Surface winds will begin to gust 10-30 knots around 08Z-12Z, initially out of the south-southeast, then turning west-southwesterly this afternoon, with most sites seeing a switch to northwesterly in the evening and overnight hours. Strongest surface winds (30-35 knots) are expected across the Champlain Valley from 10Z through 20Z Friday out of the south. Cloud ceilings are also anticipated to lower throughout the next few hours, and we should see widespread MVFR or lower cigs by 10Z-13Z Friday, lasting through the end of the 24 hour TAF period. Most sites could see some brief off and on IFR cigs throughout the day Friday, but most likely spots for persistent IFR cigs include SLK, MPV, RUT, and MSS from 10Z through 20Z Friday. And lastly, around 02Z-04Z Saturday, temperatures should drop enough at SLK to see a rain snow mix for a few hours, likely becoming all snow later in the night into early Saturday morning. Rain snow mix or even just snow is also possible at EFK and MPV later in the night into early Saturday morning. At other sites, we can expect precipitation to end throughout the evening and overnight hours. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for Lake Champlain today. South winds will increase early this morning, becoming 15 to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Locally higher gusts possible. Winds will turn to the northwest and lessen somewhat after a cold front moves through later this afternoon, but the Lake Wind Advisory will likely need to remain in place through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Daily low maximum temperatures will likely be broken on Saturday. Current records at some climate sites in our region are as follows: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: October 17: KBTV: 42/1970 KPBG: 44/2015 KSLK: 36/1970 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings DISCUSSION...Hastings/Storm/Taber AVIATION...Storm MARINE...NWS BTV CLIMATE...NWS BTV  378 FXUS63 KABR 160650 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 150 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will continue into the early morning over northeastern SD and west central MN before decreasing by mid morning. -The winds will pick up again tonight into Saturday, with a 30-50% chance for gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the Sisseton Hills. -Low temperatures tonight into Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 30s. These temperatures could cause frost to form overnight before the winds pick up. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds have been gusting up around 45-55 mph overnight as a stronger winds aloft are pushed to the surface by cold air advecting into central and northeastern SD. These winds will slowly be decreasing from west to east through the early morning, with wind gusts over northeastern SD decreasing below 30 mph by mid morning. The stronger winds aloft have also been able to interact with some moisture aloft and cause some scattered showers to develop overnight and move through the area. As the winds die back early this morning, so does the ability for these showers to develop. Through the day, drier air aloft will be moving in as high surface pressure shifts over SD. Both the drier air and high pressure will help to finally erode the clouds that have been stuck over central and northeastern SD and west central MN, and we will have some clear skies by the afternoon. Those clear skies will help to cool temperatures tonight into Saturday morning into the mid to low 30s. These cold temperatures could help frost to form over northeastern SD and west central MN tonight. This frost will have to form during the early overnight hours, because as the high pressure moves out this evening, strong southerly winds will move in over the area. These stronger winds will disrupt the frost formation, and can keep the frost from forming into early Saturday morning. These winds will be gusting up around 25-30mph across central and northeastern SD overnight. Additionally, as these winds reach the Prairie Coteau, they could become stronger due to downsloping winds. There is a 30-50% chance for wind gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the coteau Saturday morning. A wind advisory might be needed for these areas into early Saturday afternoon because of this. Warmer temperatures will be moving in Saturday from the southerly winds, which will help to warm temperatures about 5-15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year Saturday and Sunday. The downsloping winds from the southwesterly direction will continue into Saturday night. Then, a surface trough will then be moving through SD Sunday, shifting the winds to be coming from the north and decreasing the downsloping effects along the coteau. The drier air that moves in today will stick around through the beginning of the week and will help to keep precipitation from developing as the surface trough move through on Sunday, as well as into the beginning of the work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR conditions will rise to VFR (already starting to see this at KMBG) over the next 6 to 12 hours as clouds begin to thin out in high pressure. The last of the areas of rain in wrap-around moisture region should be clearing the KATY terminal by 07Z. North-northwest wind 20 to 30 knots with gusts in excess of 40 knots will be diminishing throughout the TAF valid period, including a complete switch around to south-southwesterly winds 5 to 15 knots at KPIR/KMBG by the end of the TAF valid period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ early this morning for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...10  464 FXUS63 KMQT 160652 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 252 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainfall, both associated with a low pressure passing to the south and its trailing lake effect regime, will lead to an additional tenth to half inch of rain (3/4" or higher along the high terrain of Marquette/Baraga counties) today. - A Gale Warning is in effect as gusty northwest winds to 45 kt are forecast for Lake Superior and 35-40 kt for northern Lake Michigan. The highest waves will be for east-central Lake Superior at 14-18 ft. - Dry and windy conditions this weekend may bring an additional risk for fire weather, but there is uncertainty in the moisture (both in the air and in the fuels). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Midnight KMQT radar shows widespread rainfall but with more striation patterns occurring with time to indicated mesoscale bands forming. These bands will lead to some spatial variation in the rainfall totals by the time synoptic rainfall ends this morning and we transition to a lake effect rainfall pattern. At the surface, a 1005mb low is traversing the Lower Peninsula with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Dakotas as 1040mb high pressure moves over the MT/WY/SD tripoint. Aloft, the low is supported by a positively tilted 500mb trough centered over Minnesota and the high is supported by a ridge axis most prominent over the Canadian and northern US Rockies (which sits atop a monsoon trough over San Diego). With the positive tilt of the trough and the trough itself being tilted with respect to height above the surface low, the low will deepen as it moves east into this weekend, and despite the high weakening slightly with time, the strengthening low will keep the post-low pressure gradient strong. This will drive gusty winds, in conjunction with isallobaric winds (GFS shows up to 10mb/6hr rises today) and cold advection aloft will help mix down stronger winds aloft as well. Mean peak surface wind gusts in the HREF by noon today are 35-40 mph over land and 40-45 mph at and around Lake Superior as a result. On the precipitation side of things, the aforementioned cold advection will bring 850mb temperatures down to around -4 to -8 C over a Lake Superior that is around 10-12 C, inducing up to 200 J/kg of instability over eastern Lake Superior per the NAM. As ridging aloft spills into the Plains and high pressure advances towards the region, lake effect rain (and even a 10-20% chance of the first few snowflakes of the season, no accumulation forecast) will gradually decrease in coverage and intensity, ending altogether Saturday. By 06Z Saturday, mean HREF QPF is highest (0.75"+) along an arc from the US41/US141 split, up to the Mount Arvon/Eagle Mine vicinity, and down to Palmer, with the areas surrounding this arc seeing around a half inch on average and the rest of the UP still seeing a wetting rain (about 0.1"-0.33"), though perhaps not enough to bust the drought. Still, 2 of the 3 largest ongoing wildfires are within this arc, which the rain will help keep the fire behavior down, though it will also complicate access to the fire further (muddy roads, slick exposed rock, low ceilings for aviation support, etc). Despite rainfall ending Saturday, this weekend will still carry some weather impacts. Atop the advancing ridge will be a rapidly moving and compact trough passing through the northern portions of the Canadian Prairie provinces into Hudson Bay. While the trough and resulting surface low will be too far away to deliver further precipitation to the UP for the back end of this weekend, the low (around 986 mb over western Hudson Bay Sunday afternoon per the GFS) will squeeze the pressure gradient tighter against the high pressure, whichthe GFS resolves at 1035 mb over Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon. This results in Euro ensemble mean gusts over the UP of 25-35 mph out of the southwest both afternoons of Saturday and Sunday, paired with LREF chances of sub-30% RHs at up to 25%. This combination of dry and windy weather could once again result in worsening wildfire weather conditions, though confidence on the RH forecast is low as well as low confidence in fuel moistures (the main question being "was wet weather this week enough to moisten the fuels in a meaningful way?"), so the forecast continues to bear monitoring through the weekend. More consistent ridging over central North America will bring quieter weather (continued lack of rainfall but this time with lighter winds) for the beginning of next week. Expect highs around the 60s (perhaps lower for the Keweenaw and Lake Superior shores) and lows around the freezing mark in the interior and 40s closer to the shores. The next batch of widespread rainfall appears to be with a trough that passes through the Canadian Prairie in the back half of the week, but differences in ensemble timing and intensity of the parent trough results in the peak in PoPs in the NBM being around 35% Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 119 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As a low pressure over Lower Michigan tracks east, a colder airmass presses in from the west. This transitions lingering stratiform rain over to lake effect rain showers this morning with MVFR/IFR conditions. Drier air working in through the day eventually lifts and scatters out lingering lake effect cloudiness, returning all sites to VFR from west to east this afternoon. Winds quickly strengthen this morning out of the north to 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30-40 kts, strongest at CMX. Winds taper off from west to east, settling below 10 kts this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Lake Superior: Light winds of 20 kts or less this afternoon into this evening rapidly increase to high-end northerly gales up to 45 kts Friday morning as robust CAA drops down across the area. Because of the strong winds and waves building up to 13 to 17 ft (highest over southeast lake), a Gale Warning has been issued for the entire lake Friday. In addition, while not expected, there is up to a 15% chance that a storm force gust or two could be seen in the southeastern lake near Marquette and at the tip of the Keweenaw Friday morning into mid Friday afternoon. As high pressure ridging returns Friday night, expect the winds to die down to 20 kts or less late. However, with the pressure gradient over the lake tightening and a LLJ coming in this weekend, expect winds to pick up from the southwest once again by Saturday to 20 to 30 kts, with the latest REFS showing a 30 to 60% chance for low-end gales over the west half of the lake on Saturday (highest chances along the Bayfield Peninsula followed by the Keweenaw). Gale chances could increase between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale on Sunday as the latest LREF shows up to a 40 to 80% chance of low end gales by then. As the pressure gradient weakens overhead and high pressure ridging builds once again over the Upper Great Lakes, expect the winds to die down to 20 kts or less by Monday morning, remaining that way through the first half of the work week next week. Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Light winds of 15 kts or less this afternoon into this evening give way to northerly gales up to 35 kts by late Friday morning as strong CAA drops down from Canada across the Upper Great Lakes. While this will immediately be followed up with high pressure ridging moving in Friday night (which will bring lighter winds of 15 kts or less back across the area), with a tightening pressure gradient and LLJ returning to the area for the weekend, expect winds to pick up from the southwest to 20 to 30 kts, with a 20 to 50% chance of gales up to 35 kts possible on Sunday according to the latest LREF. However, once the pressure gradient weakens early next week and high pressure ridging builds once again over the Upper Great Lakes, expect the winds to drop back down to 15 kts or less again by Monday morning, remaining that way through the first half of the work week next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ162-240. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ241-242-263. Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ243-244-264. Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ245>248-265. Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ249>251-266-267. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...GS AVIATION...77 MARINE...TAP  727 FXUS64 KOUN 160657 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 157 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Cooler air continues filtering into the area today, lasting into the weekend. - Freeze Watch in effect for far northwest OK tonight into Saturday morning. - Mostly dry with a warming trend next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Much cooler temperatures continue to advect into the area behind yesterday's cold front. Expect lows this morning to dip into the low 40s across northern/western OK with low 50s across southeast OK. Breezy northerly winds will continue through the day today helping keep temperatures quite cool, in the 50s and low 60s for highs. Some uncertainty exists regarding the degree of cloud cover and whether we see a scattered vs broken stratus deck this afternoon. Our forecast highs are based on a more optimistic cloud forecast but if low clouds are more extensive, highs could be a bit cooler in spots (low 50s vs forecast of upper 50s). Winds are expected to diminish tonight, especially across northern/western OK. With skies becoming mostly clear this should lead to excellent radiational cooling conditions. Lows Saturday morning could approach freezing across northwest OK, especially in sheltered and/or low lying areas, where a Freeze Watch remains in effect for Harper and Ellis counties. Elsewhere, lows will dip into the mid 30s to low 40s. Widespread frost and fog development is not anticipated tonight as even with light winds and extensive ground moisture from recent heavy rains, a dry airmass advecting over the area today should make it more difficult to achieve saturation near the ground. That said, as wet as the ground is would not be surprised to see some very localized frost and/or fog development in portions of western/northwestern OK in highly sheltered locations. Ware && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The surface ridge axis will settle over the area on Saturday, helping keep things cool with highs once again expected to be in the 50s in most areas. Fog formation may be a bit more favored Saturday night with some slight airmass modification/moistening, wet ground, and continued light winds and mostly clear skies. The ridge will settle further to our southeast by Sunday as troughing over the Rockies promotes lee cyclogenesis to our west. Surface pressure falls will promote increasing southerly flow and a warming trend, with highs Sunday afternoon expected to make it back into the mid to upper 60s across the area under mostly sunny skies. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A warming trend and generally dry conditions are in store for the early to middle part of next week as upper ridging builds over the area and a large cutoff low develops along the California coast by the middle of next week. The only precipitation chance during this period (currently <10%) is across western/northwestern OK Monday into Tuesday as a weak shortwave lifts northeastward across NM/CO, but for now the bulk of the forcing is forecast to remain to our northwest. Better rain chances may accompany the western US trough late next week into next weekend, but model disagreement is high regarding the speed and amplitude of the trough as it begins to eject eastward. Ware && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR ceilings will give way to VFR through the remainder of the night as cold front and associated drier air move south across the area. Rain will be confined to southeast Oklahoma for a few more hours before shifting east. North winds will remain gusty through the remainder of the night before increasing Friday morning. Gusty north winds will continue through the day before decreasing quickly Friday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 58 39 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 60 37 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 61 40 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 57 33 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 58 36 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 64 43 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for OKZ004-009. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...30  977 FXUS65 KPUB 160643 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1243 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High potential for a widespread hard freeze ending the growing season across the southeast plains tonight through Saturday morning - Warming into the weekend with a weak system bringing some mountain showers Sunday and Monday - Next system will bring increasing winds by mid week and the potential for rain and mountain snows sometime late week or next weekend && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Reinforcing surge of cold dry air will descend through the plains overnight behind a trailing upper trough dropping through the northern and central high plains towards the upper Midwest. Winds will remain elevated across the plains overnight/early this morning as a reinforcing high pressure moves through the region, but it will also bring drier air under a mostly clear skies. Best chance for a hard freeze this morning still looks like Northern El Paso County where probabilities are around 50 percent. Kiowa and southern El Paso county have a 30-50 percent chance of seeing freezing temperatures though readings may not be quite cold enough for long enough to qualify for a growing season ending hard freeze. For the counties along and south of highway 50, odds are less likely as winds may keep the lower levels mixed, but some patchy frost with a brief dip to near freezing as winds decrease towards dawn will be possible early this morning and Frost Advisories still look on target. Across the San Luis Valley where some locations didn't quite make the 3 hours of 28 degrees or colder necessary for a growing season ending hard freeze yesterday, tonight will likely do it under clear skies and falling surface dew points. Otherwise, today will remain cool but sunny with temperatures similar to a degree or two cooler across the plains. The mountains will start to see a slow warm up as ridging aloft moves in out west. Winds will be relatively light, especially towards afternoon as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern plains. Another clear cold night expected with another round of freeze warnings likely. Winds will be lighter and the airmass drier, however there will also be a developing lee trough along the lee of the mountains which could kick up some westerly winds towards morning west of I-25 which could offset the potential cooling and freeze potential. Will maintain current set of Freeze Watches for now to let current round of Frost and Freeze highlights play out. It is possible that eastern Fremont and Huerfano counties could stay too mixed for a hard freeze tonight depending on the timing of the lee trough development. Will let later shifts and another suite of model runs come in before making upgrade decisions, but probability is high for an upgrade to Freeze Warnings for locations along and east of I-25. -KT && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Warmer conditions return over the weekend with ridging aloft transitioning to southwest flow ahead of a filling upper low entering southern CA and western AZ on Sunday. Saturday remains dry across southern CO but some moisture advects in for Sunday and Monday as this weakening upper level disturbance gradually lifts out across CO. Some isolated showers will be possible, mainly for the mountain areas with some spotty light rainfall possible. Snow levels will remain above 10000 feet during the day time hours when showers will be most prevalent. The next upper trough moves into the west coast Tuesday and Wednesday. This will increase southwest flow over CO bringing breezy and warm conditions with increasing showers across the Continental Divide. Best chances for showers will be across the eastern San Juans due to orographically favored southwest flow, however this will be warm system with snow levels remaining high. Upper low will translate through the western U.S. towards CO into late week, though details on timing, track and strength are highly variable at this point. Trend will be towards unsettled weather and a cool down perhaps next weekend as the system crosses the Rockies. -KT && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1049 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Very low risk (10 percent) of some patchy ground fog along the Arkansas River/Rio Grande toward sunrise as surface dewpoints are only slowly falling, but won't include in the tafs at this point as drier air aloft will likely prevent formation. Mainly light diurnal winds under 12 kts at all terminals the next 24 hrs, with a brief period of gusty (g15-20 kts) north winds possible at KCOS 09z-14z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ069>071-084- 085-095-096. Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ083-086>089- 093-094-097>099. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...PETERSEN  977 FXUS65 KPUB 160643 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1243 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High potential for a widespread hard freeze ending the growing season across the southeast plains tonight through Saturday morning - Warming into the weekend with a weak system bringing some mountain showers Sunday and Monday - Next system will bring increasing winds by mid week and the potential for rain and mountain snows sometime late week or next weekend && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Reinforcing surge of cold dry air will descend through the plains overnight behind a trailing upper trough dropping through the northern and central high plains towards the upper Midwest. Winds will remain elevated across the plains overnight/early this morning as a reinforcing high pressure moves through the region, but it will also bring drier air under a mostly clear skies. Best chance for a hard freeze this morning still looks like Northern El Paso County where probabilities are around 50 percent. Kiowa and southern El Paso county have a 30-50 percent chance of seeing freezing temperatures though readings may not be quite cold enough for long enough to qualify for a growing season ending hard freeze. For the counties along and south of highway 50, odds are less likely as winds may keep the lower levels mixed, but some patchy frost with a brief dip to near freezing as winds decrease towards dawn will be possible early this morning and Frost Advisories still look on target. Across the San Luis Valley where some locations didn't quite make the 3 hours of 28 degrees or colder necessary for a growing season ending hard freeze yesterday, tonight will likely do it under clear skies and falling surface dew points. Otherwise, today will remain cool but sunny with temperatures similar to a degree or two cooler across the plains. The mountains will start to see a slow warm up as ridging aloft moves in out west. Winds will be relatively light, especially towards afternoon as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern plains. Another clear cold night expected with another round of freeze warnings likely. Winds will be lighter and the airmass drier, however there will also be a developing lee trough along the lee of the mountains which could kick up some westerly winds towards morning west of I-25 which could offset the potential cooling and freeze potential. Will maintain current set of Freeze Watches for now to let current round of Frost and Freeze highlights play out. It is possible that eastern Fremont and Huerfano counties could stay too mixed for a hard freeze tonight depending on the timing of the lee trough development. Will let later shifts and another suite of model runs come in before making upgrade decisions, but probability is high for an upgrade to Freeze Warnings for locations along and east of I-25. -KT && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Warmer conditions return over the weekend with ridging aloft transitioning to southwest flow ahead of a filling upper low entering southern CA and western AZ on Sunday. Saturday remains dry across southern CO but some moisture advects in for Sunday and Monday as this weakening upper level disturbance gradually lifts out across CO. Some isolated showers will be possible, mainly for the mountain areas with some spotty light rainfall possible. Snow levels will remain above 10000 feet during the day time hours when showers will be most prevalent. The next upper trough moves into the west coast Tuesday and Wednesday. This will increase southwest flow over CO bringing breezy and warm conditions with increasing showers across the Continental Divide. Best chances for showers will be across the eastern San Juans due to orographically favored southwest flow, however this will be warm system with snow levels remaining high. Upper low will translate through the western U.S. towards CO into late week, though details on timing, track and strength are highly variable at this point. Trend will be towards unsettled weather and a cool down perhaps next weekend as the system crosses the Rockies. -KT && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1049 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Very low risk (10 percent) of some patchy ground fog along the Arkansas River/Rio Grande toward sunrise as surface dewpoints are only slowly falling, but won't include in the tafs at this point as drier air aloft will likely prevent formation. Mainly light diurnal winds under 12 kts at all terminals the next 24 hrs, with a brief period of gusty (g15-20 kts) north winds possible at KCOS 09z-14z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ069>071-084- 085-095-096. Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ083-086>089- 093-094-097>099. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...PETERSEN  025 FXUS61 KCAR 160644 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 244 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong system today through tomorrow is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north today/tonight and strong winds tonight into tomorrow. 2) Extended dry period from the weekend through at least late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system today through tomorrow is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north today/tonight and strong winds tonight into tomorrow. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Upper trough digging into the upr Midwest will phase with s/wv lifting out of the central Plains and deepen sfc low moving twd the Great Lakes today. Sfc high will build into ern Canada by daybreak allowing return flow to commence over the region. Isentropic lift looks to bring pcpn into wrn zones around 12z, overspreading remainder of the region within 2-3 hours. Given how quickly precip will move in cannot rule out light snow falling over the north at onset. Accums up to one inch over the higher terrain with a dusting to 1/2 inch possible over northern Aroostook this morning. As warm advection continues on increasing LLJ temps throughout the CWA will warm and switch snow over to rain over all locations by 19z. Cannot rule out a mix with sleet as it does so but sfc temps should rapidly rise with icing not expected. Temps will climb into the 50s south and 40s north by the evening hours and continue to rise through midnight before CAA moves into the northwest and drops south during the course of the overnight. By daybreak expect that temps may be down into the u20s over the North Woods and around 40 for Downeast. Precip will be on its way out late and will likely end as rain for most of the area. Some showers are possible in north and west areas throughout the day Saturday, which could fall as a rain/snow mix. Southerly winds on today will gust upwards of 25-30 mph in the afternoon as LLJ kicks in. As cold front moves through expect winds to quickly veer to the northwest with frequent gusts upwards of 30-35mph overnight, higher in the elevated terrain. Rapidly falling overnight temps will combine with strong winds to produce wind chills in the upper teens and lower 20s over the north by Saturday morning lasting through Sunday morning. Gusty winds could also cause some isolated power outages. KEY MESSAGE 2...Extended dry period from the weekend through at least late next week. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As the system departs Saturday, high pressure will build in over the area. High pressure is expected to continue to dominate through next week as the jet stream generally stays to our north. High pressure will limit precipitation chances through next week and lead to seasonable temperatures with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Aroostook Terminals (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL): Conditions will deteriorate between 10z and 13z as cigs lower to MVFR/IFR with the onset of -SN. Expect vsby to drop to 2-3SM by 15z with -SN and BR. Precipitation transitions to -RA by 15z-18z, with cigs lowering to IFR levels (OVC004-006) and vsby around 4SM. SE winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. LLWS is expected to develop around 17z-18z at 2000 ft with S winds around 35-45 kt lasting through around 02z Saturday. BGR: By 12z, cigs lower to BKN060. MVFR cigs expected by 15z with -RA moving in, dropping further to IFR/LIFR (OVC005) by 19z with vsby restricted to 3SM in -RA and BR. SE winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. LLWS will become a factor starting at 19z at 2000 ft with S winds around 50 kt, lasting through around 00z. BHB: -RA begins by 13z with cigs lowering to BKN060. By approx 16z, expect MVFR cigs (OVC015) and IFR vsby (3SM) in -RA, with winds increasing from the SE to 10-15 kt and gusts around 20 kt. Further deterioration to LIFR/IFR (OVC005 to OVC004) and 3SM vsby expected by 19z. S winds will peak around 15-20 kt with gusts approaching 25 kt. LLWS will develop by 19z at 2000 ft with S winds around 50 kt, lasting through around 00z. Tonight...MVFR/IFR in rain showers rapidly improving to VFR from north to south after midnight. NW winds 10-20kts gusting to 30k-35ts. Saturday...MVFR over the north Saturday with snow showers. VFR otherwise. NW winds 15 to 20 kt out of the NW Saturday with gusts up to 35 kt. Saturday Night...VFR. WNW winds 5-10 kts. Sunday - Monday... VFR. Light WNW winds Monday, becoming S winds 5-10kt, gusting to 20kts. Monday night-Tuesday... VFR. Variable winds Monday night, Light N winds Tuesday. && .MARINE... South winds increase above small craft levels from mid- morning and continue thru Friday night, with a SCA in effect from 15z. Seas increase to 4-8 feet Friday evening in swrly swell. Outer waters may approach gales Friday afternoon but confidence too low in occurrence in southerly winds. Gales are possible again in cold air advection late Friday night. Chance of rain through the morning Saturday. Seas peak at 11 to 13 ft on the outer waters and 6 to 9 ft on the coastal waters early Saturday. Seas between 4-6 ft Saturday Night, diminishing below 5 ft through the overnight hours and remaining there through Tuesday. NW winds 15 kts gusting to 30 kts on coastal waters, 20-25 kts gusting to 35kts on outer waters Saturday Night. Winds will diminish on Sunday. S to SW winds Sunday night 5-10 kts on intercoastal and 10-15 kt in the coastal and outer waters. Winds below small craft conditions Monday through Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ050>052. && $$ DISCUSSION...JMM/MB AVIATION...JMM/MB  777 FXUS62 KCHS 160659 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 259 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Another day of above normal temperatures and dry conditions is expected today. - 2) Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Another day of above normal temperatures and dry conditions is expected today. Aloft, the day will begin with the forecast area situated between a ridge centered over the southwest Atlantic and a sharp trough stretching from the western Great Lakes into the Central Plains. The trough will make steady progress today and tonight, and should be situated near the spine of the Appalachians by sunrise Saturday. The trough aloft will push a strong cold front to the east-southeast today, with the front likely entering the interior of the forecast area by the early morning hours on Saturday. So for today, the forecast area will sit solidly within the warm sector ahead of the front. The result will be one more day with well above normal temperatures. Highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s everywhere yet again which is on the order of 7-9 degrees above normal. Daily record highs are at or above 90 at both CHS and SAV (see Climate section), so it is unlikely we will set any records. But regardless, quite warm for mid October. Today will also bring breezier conditions than the last several days. The combination of gradually increasing wind fields aloft ahead of the front, as well as deep diurnal mixing associated with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will yield frequent gusts into the 15-20 mph range this afternoon and into the early evening. KEY MESSAGE 2: Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. Saturday: A strong cold front will be located off our coast in the morning, and quickly shifting away. Meanwhile, strong High pressure across the Central U.S. will be building towards the east. Models hint at perhaps isolated to maybe scattered light showers across our area in the morning and early afternoon. Though, QPF will be minimal. Drier conditions build in by late afternoon. But the big change will be the temperatures. Cold air advection behind the front will only allow highs to reach into the mid to upper 60s across most of our area, and perhaps the lower 70s along our GA coast. Lows will generally be in the 40s. It'll also be very breezy, especially closer to the coast. Sunday: Temperatures will be even colder despite abundant sunshine. Highs should only top out in the lower to middle 60s across most of our area, and maybe the upper 60s along/near our GA coast. The breezy winds will continues, especially closer to the coast. Lake Wind: A Lake Wind Advisory will probably be needed for Moultrie Saturday into Sunday. Monday through Midweek: High pressure should persist across the region, but start to show signs of weakening across the Southeast heading into the middle of next week. Temperatures should gradually warm by the middle of next week, but could remain a few degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... We will likely again see shallow ground fog around the area this morning, starting just before sunrise. We do not anticipate any significant visibility reductions at KCHS, KJZI, or KSAV. Through the day, clear skies will prevail with winds shifting from southwest to more south-southwest in the afternoon. There could a few gusts into the 15-18 knot range. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Breezy winds are expected Saturday through Monday. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: A cold front will approach from the northwest today and will be in the process of crossing the local waters late tonight up to sunrise Saturday. For today, southwest flow will increase into the 10-15 knot range this afternoon with a few gusts up to around 20 knots primarily in the SC waters. Overnight, the southwest flow will gradually increase into the early morning hours. The front will move through late, turning winds to northwesterly and bringing the beginning of a significant surge of flow. By sunrise Saturday, sustained winds of 20 knots are expected with frequent gusts into the 25+ knot range. Seas will gradually increase today and into the early morning hours, with the greatest increase beginning with the passage of the front close to sunrise Saturday. By that time, seas are expected to be 2-4 feet and increasing. Extended Marine: Gale to Strong Gale conditions are expected this weekend through Monday. A strong cold front will be located off our coast Saturday morning, and quickly shifting away. Meanwhile, strong High pressure across the Central U.S. will be building towards the east. The interaction between these two synoptic features will lead to strong cold air advection and pressure differences across our coastal waters, leading to rapidly deteriorating marine conditions on Saturday. We'll start off with a few hours of Small Craft Advisories Saturday morning, followed by Gale conditions in our Atlantic zones by the afternoon. We now have Gale Watches up for our Atlantic zones, but it's safe to say they'll be upgraded to warnings. The synoptic pattern should support gale to strong gale conditions through Monday, with the highest winds and steepest/largest seas further offshore. Winds should ease Monday night into Tuesday. However, seas may remain elevated through the middle of next week. High Surf: Elevated seas and strong/persistent north-northeast winds will support breakers in excess of 5 ft along our beaches, with the largest waves across our GA beaches. High Surf Advisories are likely for our entire coast Sunday into Monday, and possibly along our GA coast into Tuesday. Rip Currents: The combination of strong/persistent gales and elevated seas will generate a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all of our beaches on Saturday, followed by an elevated risk continuing well into next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 16: KCHS: 90/2018 KCXM: 88/2018 KSAV: 91/2018 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ360- 362-364. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday night for AMZ360-362-364. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Tuesday morning for AMZ380-382-384. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ384. && $$  683 FXUS61 KGYX 160657 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Periods of rain today with a brief thunderstorm possible in New Hampshire this afternoon. 2. A seasonably cold airmass arrives to start the weekend, with wintry conditions across the higher terrain. 3. Mild and dry conditions look to persist from Sunday through much of next week as high pressure dominates over the Northeast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure is set to quickly track through the St. Lawrence Valley this afternoon. This will spread rain across the forecast area early this morning. The best overlap of forcing and moisture is on the front-end, and guidance has most QPF falling between 8am and 2pm. The quick moving low will remain flat and progressive, keeping a slot of dry air in between the warm front in the morning, and the cold front mid to late afternoon. Thus it is likely the more steady rain is focused through the morning, with showery characteristics for the afternoon. Flooding is not anticipated based on forecast amounts, but could see some instances of nuisance/poor drainage flooding where leaves may hinder drain performance. As the warm front lifts through the area, could see some fog develop amid scattered showers through mid afternoon. The final act of the day will be the cold front's arrival, potentially with some low-topped convection into SW NH. MUCAPE values, around 200 j/kg are much less than evening lightning on Tuesday. Thunder may be limited here, but the vertical mixing will likely promote a rapid wind shift with sudden gusts as the front pushes east. The front's passage will mark the beginning of NW winds overnight and into Saturday, ushering in cooler temperatures and wind chill. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As the aforementioned low pressure system departs northeast, broad high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The pressure gradient between these two systems will tighten to produce gusty NW winds Friday night through the day Saturday. There has been some slackening of the forecast gradient the last few forecasts, and this has resulted in wind forecasts not as strong as early week. However, the wind combined with the cooler airmass will certainly leave an impact on the area. Daytime highs will struggle to make it out of the 40s along the immediate coast Saturday, with widespread 30s and 40s across the mountains and foothills/interior. With frequent gusts 25 to 35 mph, resultant wind chill values may reside in the 30s across most of the area. The effect is more pronounced for the higher terrain, where winter conditions, including snow, are expected with greater wind and wind chill magnitude. Wind gusts over 100 mph are expected on Mount Washington on Saturday. Any hikers or those above 2500ft should plan for wintertime conditions this weekend. The coldest night of the season arrives Saturday night with widespread lows in the 20s. Lows below freezing are expected to the coastline across the region. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure crests over the region on Sunday and looks to stay nosed in through at least the daylight hours of next Thursday. This will bring an extended period of mild daytime temperatures, and likely some pretty chilly nights due to radiational cooling, as well as dry weather. Sunday will be the transition day with high temperatures in the low to mid-50s with mostly clear skies, but after a raw Saturday this will probably feel comfortable. Afterwards, most days should feature abundant sunshine with high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s. Periods of clouds are possible with subtle troughing aloft, but the midlevel airmass looks very dry which will preclude any threat for precipitation. Low temperatures look to be generally around normal being in the upper 20s to mid-30s north to south, but of course any night where strong radiational cooling takes place, can end up quite cold. Looking at long range ensembles 850-700 mb temperatures stay right around the 0 C mark through this stretch so certainly some cold nights could come to fruition, but nothing crazy. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through tonight...Rain moves into the area this morning with conditions quickly dropping from VFR to low MVFR or IFR. CIGs remain there thru the late afternoon or early evening when a cold front will mix out the low cloud cover. A mix of MVFR and VFR CIGs continue thru the overnight as northwesterly winds increase. Outlook... Saturday...MVFR/IFR cigs could remain for HIE through the morning with -SHRASN, otherwise VFR expected. The most notable feature for the day will be NW gusts 25 to 30 kts, slackening in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday...High pressure brings an extended period of VFR conditions with no sig wx. Wind will tend to follow typical diurnal patterns. && .MARINE... Southerly winds build today as low pressure passes inland up the St. Lawrence Valley. These winds then become SW and then NW overnight, increasing towards Gale force on the outer waters. Winds and seas will gradually decrease Saturday evening. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sunday through much of next week as high pressure settles over the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ150>154. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baron/Cornwell AVIATION...Legro  564 FXUS65 KBYZ 160655 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1255 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and drier conditions into next week. - Breezy conditions along the foothills west of Billings, tonight into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday... Upper level ridging builds into the region through Saturday. Warmer and drier conditions are forecast as a result. Expect high temperatures in the 50s and 60s today before warming further into the 70s on Saturday. Models have been consistently showing breezy winds coming out of the Bighorn Basin today, bringing gusts in the 30s and 40s mph south of Billings to the MT/WY border. A dry cold front will move through the area Saturday evening, bringing high temperatures down into the 50s and 60s for Sunday. The latest forecast has temperatures in the 60s to low 70s for the first half of the week. Depending on the track of a low off the west coast middle of next week, the region could get into a pattern of daily afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms. Currently there are low chances for precipitation across south-central MT Tuesday into Wednesday. There is still uncertainty at this time, so watch the forecast to see how this system progresses. TS/PM .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds turn southerly today with many locations gusting into the 20s kts. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 063 046/073 043/061 038/066 042/068 044/061 043/064 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/B LVM 069 038/072 038/061 035/069 039/067 038/060 037/061 0/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 01/B 22/W 23/W HDN 065 033/075 037/065 035/068 037/070 040/063 040/066 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/B MLS 061 036/071 043/061 040/067 043/069 044/062 043/065 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 4BQ 061 040/075 044/063 041/068 046/072 046/065 046/069 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/B BHK 058 038/075 041/063 036/066 040/072 042/066 040/069 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 00/U 01/U 01/B SHR 065 035/077 038/063 035/068 038/070 040/064 039/066 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  683 FXUS61 KGYX 160657 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Periods of rain today with a brief thunderstorm possible in New Hampshire this afternoon. 2. A seasonably cold airmass arrives to start the weekend, with wintry conditions across the higher terrain. 3. Mild and dry conditions look to persist from Sunday through much of next week as high pressure dominates over the Northeast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure is set to quickly track through the St. Lawrence Valley this afternoon. This will spread rain across the forecast area early this morning. The best overlap of forcing and moisture is on the front-end, and guidance has most QPF falling between 8am and 2pm. The quick moving low will remain flat and progressive, keeping a slot of dry air in between the warm front in the morning, and the cold front mid to late afternoon. Thus it is likely the more steady rain is focused through the morning, with showery characteristics for the afternoon. Flooding is not anticipated based on forecast amounts, but could see some instances of nuisance/poor drainage flooding where leaves may hinder drain performance. As the warm front lifts through the area, could see some fog develop amid scattered showers through mid afternoon. The final act of the day will be the cold front's arrival, potentially with some low-topped convection into SW NH. MUCAPE values, around 200 j/kg are much less than evening lightning on Tuesday. Thunder may be limited here, but the vertical mixing will likely promote a rapid wind shift with sudden gusts as the front pushes east. The front's passage will mark the beginning of NW winds overnight and into Saturday, ushering in cooler temperatures and wind chill. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As the aforementioned low pressure system departs northeast, broad high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The pressure gradient between these two systems will tighten to produce gusty NW winds Friday night through the day Saturday. There has been some slackening of the forecast gradient the last few forecasts, and this has resulted in wind forecasts not as strong as early week. However, the wind combined with the cooler airmass will certainly leave an impact on the area. Daytime highs will struggle to make it out of the 40s along the immediate coast Saturday, with widespread 30s and 40s across the mountains and foothills/interior. With frequent gusts 25 to 35 mph, resultant wind chill values may reside in the 30s across most of the area. The effect is more pronounced for the higher terrain, where winter conditions, including snow, are expected with greater wind and wind chill magnitude. Wind gusts over 100 mph are expected on Mount Washington on Saturday. Any hikers or those above 2500ft should plan for wintertime conditions this weekend. The coldest night of the season arrives Saturday night with widespread lows in the 20s. Lows below freezing are expected to the coastline across the region. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure crests over the region on Sunday and looks to stay nosed in through at least the daylight hours of next Thursday. This will bring an extended period of mild daytime temperatures, and likely some pretty chilly nights due to radiational cooling, as well as dry weather. Sunday will be the transition day with high temperatures in the low to mid-50s with mostly clear skies, but after a raw Saturday this will probably feel comfortable. Afterwards, most days should feature abundant sunshine with high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s. Periods of clouds are possible with subtle troughing aloft, but the midlevel airmass looks very dry which will preclude any threat for precipitation. Low temperatures look to be generally around normal being in the upper 20s to mid-30s north to south, but of course any night where strong radiational cooling takes place, can end up quite cold. Looking at long range ensembles 850-700 mb temperatures stay right around the 0 C mark through this stretch so certainly some cold nights could come to fruition, but nothing crazy. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through tonight...Rain moves into the area this morning with conditions quickly dropping from VFR to low MVFR or IFR. CIGs remain there thru the late afternoon or early evening when a cold front will mix out the low cloud cover. A mix of MVFR and VFR CIGs continue thru the overnight as northwesterly winds increase. Outlook... Saturday...MVFR/IFR cigs could remain for HIE through the morning with -SHRASN, otherwise VFR expected. The most notable feature for the day will be NW gusts 25 to 30 kts, slackening in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday...High pressure brings an extended period of VFR conditions with no sig wx. Wind will tend to follow typical diurnal patterns. && .MARINE... Southerly winds build today as low pressure passes inland up the St. Lawrence Valley. These winds then become SW and then NW overnight, increasing towards Gale force on the outer waters. Winds and seas will gradually decrease Saturday evening. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sunday through much of next week as high pressure settles over the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ150>154. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baron/Cornwell AVIATION...Legro  564 FXUS65 KBYZ 160655 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1255 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and drier conditions into next week. - Breezy conditions along the foothills west of Billings, tonight into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday... Upper level ridging builds into the region through Saturday. Warmer and drier conditions are forecast as a result. Expect high temperatures in the 50s and 60s today before warming further into the 70s on Saturday. Models have been consistently showing breezy winds coming out of the Bighorn Basin today, bringing gusts in the 30s and 40s mph south of Billings to the MT/WY border. A dry cold front will move through the area Saturday evening, bringing high temperatures down into the 50s and 60s for Sunday. The latest forecast has temperatures in the 60s to low 70s for the first half of the week. Depending on the track of a low off the west coast middle of next week, the region could get into a pattern of daily afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms. Currently there are low chances for precipitation across south-central MT Tuesday into Wednesday. There is still uncertainty at this time, so watch the forecast to see how this system progresses. TS/PM .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds turn southerly today with many locations gusting into the 20s kts. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 063 046/073 043/061 038/066 042/068 044/061 043/064 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/B LVM 069 038/072 038/061 035/069 039/067 038/060 037/061 0/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 01/B 22/W 23/W HDN 065 033/075 037/065 035/068 037/070 040/063 040/066 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/B MLS 061 036/071 043/061 040/067 043/069 044/062 043/065 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 4BQ 061 040/075 044/063 041/068 046/072 046/065 046/069 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/B BHK 058 038/075 041/063 036/066 040/072 042/066 040/069 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 00/U 01/U 01/B SHR 065 035/077 038/063 035/068 038/070 040/064 039/066 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  503 FXUS64 KCRP 160635 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 135 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A cold front this morning will bring strong north winds, cooler temperatures and drier conditions to South Texas. - Gale Warning is in effect this morning through early Saturday Afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed through late Saturday afternoon and evening. - A Wind Advisory is in effect this morning through tonight. - Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect this afternoon through Sunday morning. - Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Saturday. - Elevated fire weather concerns behind the cold front this afternoon, mainly across the Brush Country. - Low to medium rain chances across South Texas this morning associated with the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front can be seen via satellite and radar moving south to southeast across the Hill Country. The cold front is expected to move through S TX later this morning, finally bringing some relief from the heat. The cooler and drier conditions will be more noticeable tonight. A pleasant weekend is in store for S TX with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to low 60s. Temperatures begin to warm back up early next week. Rain chances associated with the cold front will be highest across the Rio Grande Plains with up to 55% chance and across the gulf waters with up to 70% across the offshore waters. The Brush Country, Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads have a 15-30% chance of mainly showers. A few thunderstorms will be possible. The rain is expected to end from northwest to southeast this afternoon. Strong north winds behind the cold front will be a concern with gusts up to 35-40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect across S TX starting this morning. Winds are expected to decrease below advisory levels initially across the western areas this afternoon, then across the eastern areas tonight. The islands are expected to remain at advisory levels through Saturday morning. Gale conditions are expected later this morning as the cold front pushes offshore, and will likely continue through Saturday morning to early Saturday afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 8-13 feet. Winds begin to relax Saturday afternoon and evening, but will remain at advisory levels through Saturday evening. Another concern will be coastal flooding. The strong northerly winds and large seas across the gulf waters and swell periods of 8-9 seconds will likely lead to minor coastal flooding during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect this afternoon through Sunday morning. In addition, the long period swells will be conducive for a moderate rip current risk today through Saturday. The north winds along the shore tend to negate the rip current risk, but given the long period swells and large seas, should lead to a moderate risk. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF cycle. A strong cold front is expected to move into the COT and VCT TAF sites between 10-12Z, and the LRD, ALI and CRP sites between 12-14Z, bringing a brief period of MVFR CIGs/VSBYs and a low chance of showers. In addition, winds will go from light and variable to a strong north wind as the cold front moves southward across the region. Winds are expected to build to 20-30 knots with gusts around 35-40 knots, especially ALI and CRP. Winds are expected to gradually diminish through Friday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front will move across the coastal waters later this morning, shifting winds to the north-northeast and increasing to near gale force (BF 7) with frequent gusts to gale (BF 8). A Gale Warning is in effect this morning through early Saturday afternoon. Winds will relax from nearshore to offshore through Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas will remain at advisory levels through Saturday evening. A moderate northeast breeze will develop by Sunday. There is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the nearshore waters and up to a 70% chance across the offshore waters through the morning hours. Rain chances will end from west to east through this afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front this morning will bring a strong northerly wind and drier conditions to South Texas through this afternoon. There may be a brief window this afternoon when RH values drop to around 25% across the Brush Country while winds are still strong, leading to elevated fire weather conditions. Due to a low ERC and moisture is normal to above normal, Red Flag Conditions are not anticipated. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the Brush Country for this afternoon from 2 PM through 8 PM for elevated fire weather conditions. RH values begin to increase this evening decreasing the threat. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend along with winds becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 82 57 73 55 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 79 53 73 50 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 79 56 72 52 / 60 0 0 0 Alice 81 55 72 52 / 20 0 0 0 Rockport 84 59 75 59 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 77 53 72 50 / 30 0 0 0 Kingsville 82 55 72 53 / 30 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 61 73 62 / 30 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239-240. Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ232>234-241>247-342>344-346-347. Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ345-442-443-447. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443-447. GM...Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-237. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...NP/92  284 FXUS62 KILM 160647 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 247 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Gale Watch over all waters has been upgraded to a Gale Warning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures near record highs again today. 2) Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures near record highs again today. One last day of warm weather today with deep SW flow over the area as high pressure shifts farther offshore. Temps will not be quite as high as yesterday, but highs in the mid/upr 80s will still come close to daily records. Please see the Climate section below for more info. KEY MESSAGE 2...Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend. A strong cold front is still slated to move through the area tonight into early Sat, ushering in the coolest air of autumn thus far. Guidance continues to differ on how widespread any rain will be, with PoPs following the fropa remaining in the 30-60% range daytime Saturday with any rainfall expected to be under a quarter of an inch. Deep northerly flow will develop as system shifts farther off the coast through Sat aftn. Dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 this evening will drop through Sat down into the 40s by late Sat. This drying trend will continue into Sat night with gusty northerly winds allowing dewpoints to bottom out early Sun in the 30s to around 40 close to the coast. Plenty of CAA will bring temps down quite a few degrees below normal Sat into Sun. Temps Sat aftn will resemble overnight temps just 12 hrs before, and the stiff northerly winds will make it feel even cooler. Expect overnight lows Sat night in the low/mid 40s. Overall, fall-like weather will arrive Sat with a gradual warming through early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF period across SE NC and NE SC. Only slight concern is for reduced vsby from shallow ground fog this morning, but chances are too low to include mention in the TAFs attm. SW winds will gust to 15-20 kt starting this aftn ahead of an approaching cold front. Extended Outlook...Northerly winds behind a cold front late tonight could gust over 30 kt into the day Saturday. Moderate to high confidence in MVFR/IFR cigs following the fropa with scattered showers as well. Lower confidence in low cigs thereafter for early next week depending on how close to the coast an offshore low pressure system develops. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue through this evening with sfc high pressure offshore. A strong cold front moves through very early Sat morning, allowing winds to quickly veer from SW to the N, gradually veering even more to the NNE through the day Saturday into Sunday. Seas will ramp up in increasing winds ahead of the front and will peak late Sun. The Gale Watch over all waters has been upgraded to a Gale Warning, starting midday Sat and continuing through late Sun night, and will be extended as needed in future updates. Confidence is high for 35-40 kt gusts over the 0-20 NM coastal waters, and for 40-45 kt gusts over the 20-60 NM waters. There is still plenty of uncertainty over potential low pressure development offshore this weekend, but regardless, a strong pressure gradient will persist through at least early next week over the local waters between strong high pressure inland and low pressure well offshore. && .CLIMATE... Forecast/record highs for Friday, October 16: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 86F (87F in 2021, 2018, and 1975) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 82F (88F in 1990) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 88F (91F in 2021) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 88F (92F in 1925) && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250- 252-254-256-280-284. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS  421 FXUS62 KTBW 160633 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 233 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters are expected over the weekend and continuing into next week. - Moisture will continue to increase with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today and Saturday. - A cooler drier airmass with below average temperatures will arrive by Sunday and continue through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Upper level ridging and surface high pressure has shifted southeast and is now located between the Bahamas and Bermuda keeping an east- southeast wind flow over the Florida peninsula today. As seen on the latest water vapor imagery and sampled on the TBW 00Z upper air sounding, moisture has rebounded with PWAT values back up to around 1.9 - 2.1 inches across west central and southwest Florida. This increasing moisture will equate to afternoon scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms across the Florida peninsula today, with the highest coverage over the interior. Farther to the north and west, an area of low pressure is located over the Great Lakes region with an associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mississippi River Valley, then to southeast Texas. The area of low pressure will move northeastward over New England through Saturday morning while the cold front moves through the southeast U.S. and Florida. We can expect scattered to numerous showers and storms late Friday through Saturday evening with frontal passage. By Saturday evening into Sunday, the cold front will be located over southern Florida, while a strong 1036 MB high pressure center sets up near Ohio. Skies and rain coverage will clear from north to south, but isolated showers and storms will still be possible over southwest Florida through Sunday evening, then low rain chances expected for most of next week. A tight pressure gradient between the remnant cold front over south Florida and the strong high pressure near Ohio will set up over the Florida peninsula producing breezy north through northeast winds for most of next week. These breezy winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters with a Small Craft Advisory needed starting Saturday morning and continuing through most of next week. Above average temperatures expected today with daytime highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A big cool down and lower humidity is expected starting Saturday as the cold front pushes south through the Florida peninsula. Well below average temperatures expected Sunday through most of next week with daytime highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s north and low to mid 60s central and south. Dew points will dip into the 50s north of Tampa Bay, while low to mid 60s expected central and southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Outside of showers and storms, VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots will prevail through the forecast period. Scattered showers and storms expected during the afternoon hours, so will cover this with VCTS between 18-01Z. Some brief MVFR/IFR conditions for CIG and VSBY restrictions and gusty winds possible in the vicinity of storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High pressure located between the Bahamas and Bermuda ridges over Florida and into the Gulf and will keep east through southeast winds around 10-15 knots over the eastern Gulf waters and scattered showers and storms for today. A cold front moves through the waters late Friday into Saturdayproducing higher rain and storm chances for all of the eastern Gulf waters. Hazardous marine conditions will set up over the eastern Gulf waters starting Saturday morning as a tight pressure gradient sets up over the region in the wake of this front producing north through northeast winds around 20-30 knots and seas up to 13 feet. This has warranted the need for a Small Craft Advisory starting Saturday morning and continuing well into the first half of next week. Conditions will be closely monitored for a possible Gale Warning as well over the weekend and into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Some showers and isolated storms possible this afternoon across west central and southwest Florida and on Saturday as a cold front pushes through the Florida peninsula. Humidity values will remain above critical levels through the forecast period. The only fire weather concern will be breezy north through northeast winds greater than 15 mph starting Saturday afternoon and continuing into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 76 80 64 / 40 30 60 10 FMY 90 75 84 69 / 50 40 70 20 GIF 91 74 82 64 / 60 20 50 10 SRQ 88 75 82 66 / 30 40 80 10 BKV 91 72 79 59 / 40 30 40 0 SPG 87 76 81 65 / 30 40 70 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn  570 FXUS63 KGLD 160636 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1236 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freeze likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible in western areas. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1230 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Upper ridge begins to build in from the west today. The axis will be over the area on Saturday followed by southwest flow on Sunday as it continues to move east. At the surface, sprawling high pressure centered over the High Plains today will move south, with a lee trough developing in its place on Saturday which moves little through Sunday. No precipitation is expected through the period under the ridge. Winds will diminish today as the surface high builds in from the north. Return flow on Saturday combined with the deepening lee trough in Colorado will result in breezy south winds gusting up to 35 mph by the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible in northeast Colorado as temperatures there warm into the mid 70s and relative humidity drops into the teens. The same area will see low humidity Sunday afternoon but winds will be lighter and elevated fire weather conditions are more likely than critical. Temperatures will be cool once again today with highs in the mid 50s, but warm over the weekend into the 60s and 70s. A light freeze is likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible (40% probabilities) in northeast Colorado and west of Highway 27 in Kansas and Nebraska. Low temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Southwest flow aloft via longwave ridge is anticipated on Sunday to kick off this forecast period. Said ridge, centered over the western Great Lakes region, should propagate fairly quickly to the east over the course of the day Monday. Upper-level winds become zonal through Monday. Guidance currently projects a second ridge to develop on Tuesday across the the Plains region, settling the flow pattern back to southwesterly through the middle of next week. This, all ahead of an upper-level low that is expected to move across the SW CONUS through Wednesday. Guidance does outline a brief shortwave early Monday which should move out of the County Warning Area (CWA) by the time the evening comes around. Not much is expected to come from this trough passage other that a wind shift. A weak surface low is likely to form over eastern Colorado Sunday, moving into western Kansas Monday. This feature also should not do much other than pressure changes and wind shifts. Ensemble guidance is beginning to pick up a stronger surface low that may set up near the Tri-State area late Wednesday. Forecast guidance anticipates conditions to be quite dry across the CWA through early Wednesday. 5% or less PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) are favored throughout the region. This may not last though as an upper-level low, mentioned in the above section, paired with low-pressure at the surface could bring the next decent rainfall chances to our region late Wednesday. Guidance is currently not very confident on widespread precipitation, but a general 15-25% PoPs is forecasted at this point in time. Surface analysis/QPF doesn't show much accumulation for our area right now; nonetheless, still worth monitoring as this event draws closer. Moving on to high/low temperatures for the coverage area, a slight warmup is expected across the board as we rebound from well-below average highs. Temps in the low/mid 70s are likely Sunday and Monday, with a slight uptick to mid/upper 70s Tuesday then upper 70s/low 80s possible next Wednesday. With respect to overnight lows, Sunday morning is likely to be the coldest, with temps expected to approach the mid 30s. Lows will then gradually warm up above the mid 30s, with upper 30s/low 40s expected Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue this warming trend with low/mid 40s and then upper 40s/low 50s expected, respectively. As for fire weather concerns, the potential for critical fire conditions will be low, but not zero. Relative humidity (RH) values are likely to reach the mid-teens (14-15%) in our eastern Colorado counties on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface winds over these areas should sit around 15-20 mph from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Going forward, RH values are anticipated as low as the upper teens west of US-385 Monday and Tuesday, but winds should be light and variable; thus, the fire weather outlook likely will be milder post-Sunday. For the rest of the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is to be expected with generally 5-15 mph winds. Winds will initially be from the south Monday, shifting to the north and east with the shortwave, then settling back to more of a southerly direction. Gusts are not likely to exceed 25 mph during this forecast period everywhere east of the Colorado/Kansas state line. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1116 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for both KGLD and KMCK. Winds are likely to remain from the north and around 10-20 kts, with gusts around 25- 30 kts, through the majority of the TAF period. Winds will likely decrease around 22-23Z, to around 5-10 kts as they begin to shift to come from the south. Still expect low level wind shear to continue through around 11Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NEZ079. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Holdren