143 FXUS63 KDLH 160801 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 301 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain moves out of the area through this morning, with strong north winds gusting 25-40mph peaking by midday, then diminishing into the evening. - Dry conditions expected this weekend, with possible near-critical fire weather concerns Saturday. - A very chilly night and widespread freeze into Saturday morning, then a gradual warming trend into and through next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Additional rain showers continue to make their way across the region this morning. The main synoptic system is pushing off to the east across the Great Lakes, with some lingering wrap around precipitation being the main driver for the rain we are still seeing. These showers should steadily move east and diminish through this morning, with a little lingering lake enhanced rain possible into the early afternoon along the South Shore. Closely following the surface low moving east is a notable surface high pressure building over the Dakotas, making for a prominent pressure gradient between the two. This is leading to wind gusts of 20-40mph over western to central MN, which will push across the rest of the Northland through this morning. The zenith for peak gusts should be observed between now and noon, with weakening gusts through the afternoon and evening. Saturday, that high pressure should bring in dry air, along with some gusty southwest winds. First, low dewpoints and clearing skis should allow temperatures to plummet overnight, leading to morning low temperatures in the 20s Saturday. Then, a combination of afternoon relative humidity dropping to near 30% and southwest wind gusts of 20-30mph could lead to some near-critical fire weather conditions. Recent model guidance has trended slightly more moist with relative humidity due to cooler afternoon high temperatures, but there is still a wide spread in that variable which could affect final RH values. With a sunny day expected that should increase mixing, we're still keeping an eye on Saturday for fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This afternoon, rain showers will continue to spread across the Northland as a surface low cuts across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. This main band of rain currently moving through far northeastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will continue to move east throughout this evening and overnight, with the heaviest rainfall falling across northwest Wisconsin. Models are still having trouble with a cold bias overnight, so brought up minimum temperatures for tonight due to cloud cover, as done in previous forecasts. Wrap around showers will develop and more off-and-on rain showers are expected across much of the area in the late night and early morning Friday. Lake enhanced/effect rain showers will continue through most of Friday morning across portions of the South Shore as cold air moves over the relatively warm waters of Lake Superior. A few snowflakes could mix in across far northern Minnesota during the overnight hours, but no accumulations and no impacts are expected. Strong north winds will surge behind the departing boundary, gusting between 25 and 35 mph inland and up to 45 mph near Lake Superior, before conditions subside and skies clear late Friday afternoon. High pressure will build across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, bringing a return of sunny skies and dry air. RHs increased significantly Saturday with the initial population of forecast data, so decreased them again to better account for dry air aloft that will likely mix down to the surface that day. No fire headlines are anticipated at this time, but fire weather conditions will still be near critical with the combined lower RH of 25 to 30 percent and gusty southwest winds of 20-30 mph expected that day. Under this system, temperatures will increase back toward sixty degrees through the weekend into next week. On Sunday, an upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with only scattered passing clouds. Winds will follow as this system passes with gusts 20-30 mph in northwest Wisconsin. RH values between 30 and 40% will lead to elevated fire weather conditions with higher winds, but not anticipating any fire headlines needed. Behind this boundary, upper-level ridging will become the dominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This synoptic regime will maintain dry, mostly clear, and unseasonably mild weather across our area through Monday, with afternoon temperatures warming well into the sixties. Dry and quiet weather will persist into Tuesday as the upper ridge remains centered over the region, keeping temperatures mild. By Wednesday, a weak passing upper disturbance will bring an increase in cloud cover along with a slight chance of afternoon rain showers. However, any precipitation will be light and widely scattered, with dry conditions still favored overall at this point. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR to IFR ceilings continue early this morning at all terminals with areas of rain showers. Those low ceilings and rain showers should slowly make their way out of the area through mid morning, with conditions returning to VFR for all terminals by midday. Gusty north winds will move into the region from west to east, with gusts of 25-30 knots possible, peaking between 12-18Z this morning, and then steadily diminishing through the afternoon and evening. Expect fairly calm conditions and clear skies overnight into Saturday morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A very strong period of north winds will affect Western Lake Superior this morning, with gales expected through midday. Winds should diminish through the afternoon, but a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed until early this evening. Winds turn to become southwesterly through the weekend, with some strong gusts possible, especially in the afternoon and along the South Shore. Max gusts could approach gale-force Saturday afternoon and evening, but its still a little uncertain at this time. Wind gusts over 30knots are likely (70% chance), but getting all the way to 34knots is less certain, especially for the North Shore and into the open waters. Small Craft Advisories are likely, and a Gale Warning is possible. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Very strong northwest winds are expected this morning, peaking in the late morning to around noon, and then slowly weakening through the afternoon and evening. This will accompany diminishing rain showers, which should be largely out of the region by mid morning. As drier air moves in behind these showers, afternoon relative humidity should drop to around 40-50%. Saturday will be a day to watch for fire weather concerns, though recent model guidance has backed off on the very dry air we were expecting. Minimum afternoon relative humidity could still drop to 30-40% along with southwest winds gusting 20-30 mph. Gusty southwest winds continue into Sunday, with afternoon minimum relative humidity recovering slightly, expected to be in the 35-45% range. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-140>148- 150. && $$ UPDATE...Levens DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens  771 FXUS63 KILX 160827 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 327 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are likely this afternoon, with the strongest winds being west of I-57. - Much cooler weather will settle into the region through the weekend, resulting in areas of frost both Saturday and Sunday mornings. There is a 40-60% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees northwest of the IL River tonight/Saturday morning and a 30-50% chance east of I-55 Saturday night/Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front has moved through the area but the 500mb trough will rotate through the area today, bringing instability showers to the entire area this afternoon. The bulk of the showers will diminish after sunset but some could linger in far eastern parts of the CWA as the flow becomes more northerly and scattered showers are expected to drop south of Lake Michigan to along the IL/IN border during the evening. Cold air advection is occurring behind the front, tightening the pressure gradient. This is bringing gusty winds to the area early this morning. Wind gusts over 30 mph have already occurred in some spots and gusts shows 80-90% chance that gusts over 30 will continue through the day. In fact, the HREF shows a 40-60% chance of gusts over 35 mph east of I-55 during the afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will then decrease in the west during the evening but not taper off in the east until around midnight. Cooler, fall like temperatures will advect into the area behind the departing cold front this weekend. Highs today and Saturday will be in the 50s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s both Sat and Sun morning. With skies becoming clear tonight and winds becoming much lighter overnight, frost is expected to develop across west central and parts of central Illinois late tonight. The HREF is showing a 40-60% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees northwest of the IL River late tonight/Sat morning, so some low spots could see a light freeze. Frost is possible again Sunday morning, mainly in areas east of I-55 where the HREF is showing a 30-50% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees. Because of the frost potential tonight, a frost advisory has been issued for areas west of a Bloomington to Decatur to Shelbyville line. Another frost advisory will likely be needed east of I-55 Saturday night. Temperatures will begin to warm starting Sunday, reaching into the 60s. The rest of the extended forecast, Monday through Friday, looks to be above normal with highs in the 70s to around 80, especially Thursday and Friday. Dry weather is also expected through the extended period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Any remaining showers in the vicinity of the central IL terminals will diminish in the next hour or so as a cold front pushes off to the east. An area of partial clearing and VFR conditions looks to move into the area for a few hours starting 09Z-12Z, followed by a return to MVFR cigs as an upper level disturbance moves through this afternoon. This will be accompanied by scattered showers from around 17Z-00Z. VFR conditions are expected to return after 00Z. Winds NW 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts until 00Z then tapering off to around 10-15 kts by 06Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031- 036-037-040>042-047>052. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Auten DISCUSSION...Auten AVIATION...37  481 FXUS63 KJKL 160840 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 440 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers will remain around the area through tonight. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a high risk for frost area-wide on Saturday night into Sunday morning, and again Sunday night into Monday morning for many valley locations. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 425 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 08Z sfc analysis shows a warm front now east of the state while a distinct and well defined cold front is approaching from the west. This has left mostly clear skies around eastern Kentucky as the showers have moved off to the east with the warm front. With plenty of ground moisture around, and patches of clearing in the skies, areas of fog have developed in the valleys this night and become locally dense. Currently, temperatures are quite mild and running in the low to mid 70s for much of the area with some mid to upper 60s noted in a few valley locations. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds around 5 mph, dewpoints are rather moist and generally in the low to mid 60s. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the first full-latitude trough of the season swinging out of the Upper Midwest and into the Ohio Valley this morning. This feature steadily works into Kentucky today while starting to close off overhead later this evening and tonight. A core of energy accompanies the southern extent of the trough as it, and its sharp 5h height falls, move through by 06Z Saturday. Benign northwest flow then follows for the rest of the period. Given the very small model spread, most of the forecast grids came from unadjusted NBM data this morning. However, did incorporate the latest CAMs guidance into the NBM PoPs as the front moves through. With CAA for the bulk of the period did not see much of an opportunity to improve on the temps or dewpoints. Sensible weather will feature a very changeable day on account of the front moving through early in the day from northwest to southeast accompanied by scattered to numerous showers. Even after the front passes and winds switch more northwesterly, a few showers will linger and only slowly clear out west to east. Temperatures peak early today before falling post-frontal leading to a chilly end of the afternoon and evening amid those lingering showers. There will be an upslope component to the post frontal showers that hold on into the night before finally clearing to the east early Saturday. With this new air mass, temperatures will be much cooler during the day, Saturday, despite plenty of returning sunshine. In fact, many places will see temperatures 20 or so degrees colder Saturday afternoon compared to this afternoon. This, along with strong high pressure moving over the area will set the stage for a very chilly night with frost on tap and even some spots expected to hit freezing by dawn Sunday. A frost advisory will likely be needed. The main changes to the NBM starting point were to include details from the latest CAMs consensus into the PoPs through tonight. Temperatures and dewpoints were left nearly unchanged. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 440 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 The extended portion of the forecast appears to be on track for the significant frost concerns both Saturday and Sunday nights on account of ridging aloft and strong sfc high pressure in place. This pattern will keep the weather rather quiet for the upcoming week with gradual moderation in temperatures each day following a chilly end to the weekend. The previous long term discussion follows: The central theme of the long term forecast period is the advection of a cooler and drier airmass into Eastern Kentucky on Saturday. In the wake of Friday's FROPA, a building surface anticyclone will yield northerly and then east-northeasterly surface winds across the forecast area this weekend. Combined with northwesterly flow around the backside of the mean troughing aloft, this shift will end the production of any lingering upslope rain showers by midday Saturday. A modified continental polar airmass moves into the region in its wake, and temperatures will likely struggle to get much warmer than the mid 50s in Eastern Kentucky on Saturday afternoon. Increasingly efficient diurnal mixing could lead to breezy wind gusts up to 20mph, but it should also help to scatter out the remaining clouds by Saturday evening. This, in turn, sets the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight, and the area appears primed for the first significant frost of the season by Sunday morning. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions like light winds and mostly clear skies. The aforementioned postfrontal surface high moves overhead on Saturday night, leading to a lighter gradient winds and further reinforcing the notion that the area will see clear skies on Saturday night. The NBM ensemble data continues to resolve a 60-90% chance for minimum temperatures to fall below that 36 degree criterion, and frost headlines are likely to be issued soon. With that being said, the magnitude of the frost will likely be somewhat elevation-dependent. Confidence in widespread frost is greatest in the most sheltered and shaded valley locales, which could make a run at the 32 degree mark. There remains a 20-40% chance within the ensemble data for temperatures to reach the freezing point in the coldest hollows. A freeze is not the most likely forecast solution in our CWA, but given that some of the station-specific MOS guidance explicitly drops temperatures to near 30, trends in the incoming higher-resolution forecast guidance will need to be monitored. With that being said, most of the broader and more populated valley locales across our CWA will experience at least areas of frost on Saturday night. The frost will be patchier atop ridges and in places closer to the mainstem rivers and lakes. Bodies of water intrinsically hold onto heat for longer, and it remains plausible for there to be some patchy river valley fog in their immediate vicinity. This fog would counteract frost formation, so confidence in frost is lowest in places immediately next to the Kentucky, Cumberland, Licking, and Levisa/Tug Fork Rivers. Agricultural interests and recreational gardeners should be prepared to take protective actions for any sensitive plants in this time frame, and they are encouraged to continue monitoring for forecast updates and potential product issuances. While Saturday and Saturday night remain the coldest part of the forecast period, there has been a noticeable trend towards slower airmass modification in next week's forecast guidance. More and more ensemble members are pinching off a shortwave within the mean Eastern CONUS troughing on Sunday. That feature spins into a cutoff upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic in the initial stages of the next work week. The presence of this feature will block/delay the eastward propagation of a mid/upper level ridge in the Ozarks, which, in turn, will prevent temperatures from quickly rebounding into the 70s in our forecast area. Rather, temperatures will gradually rise towards afternoon highs in the 60s on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Some patchy frost is possible in the favored hollows at night, but the overarching warming trend (albeit slower) will eventually favor lows in the 40s and valley fog. With fair skies in the forecast, Eastern Kentucky should get to enjoy a prolonged period of quiet autumnal weather early next week. The forecast becomes more uncertain for Wednesday and beyond. There are diverging model solutions surrounding that low pressure system's evolution, with some guidance even suggesting a potential hybrid tropical cyclone along the east coast. Others take the low out to sea, which would allow the building southern CONUS ridge to exert more influence over the Ohio River Valley. It is difficult to pinpoint specific temperature forecast details towards the end of the period as a result, but both camps favor dry weather in the region. The CPC Days 6-10 and Days 8-14 Outlooks resolve a 40-60% chance of below-normal precipitation in Eastern Kentucky, and climatologically speaking, this is already the driest time of the year here. D0 "Abnormally Dry" conditions were expanded across portions of the commonwealth in today's Drought Monitor update. Expect these contours to be maintained or perhaps even expand as this dry pattern sets up and potentially persist through the end of the month. Fire weather interests are encouraged to monitor for future updates on that topic as the time approaches. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 With the departure of the showers off to the northeast, southwesterly low-level winds and resulting LLWS will be found for a time across the area while a strong cold front approaches from the west. LLWS is most likely for sites north and west of JKL, as the low-level jet will be weakening as it moves east across the area early this morning. Southwest winds will become more westerly and then northwesterly with the cold front crossing the area during the daytime hours. Expect sustained winds near 15 kts and higher gusts possible at most if not all TAF sites through much of the afternoon as the front passes. The cold front will bring the return of MVFR and poorer conditions along with the chance for -SHRA through evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF AVIATION...CMC/GREIF  108 FXUS66 KSGX 160832 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 132 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Santa Ana winds will continue through Saturday, with the strongest winds expected today. Hot and dry conditions expected for the coastal basin with moderate to locally major HeatRisk for coastal areas. Santa Ana winds weaken by Sunday, allowing the coastal basin to cool off. Further cooling expected region-wide for next week with widespread rain as a low pressure system moves in from the northwest. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Upper-level northeasterly flow has combined with a strong offshore surface pressure gradient to produce moderate to locally strong Santa Ana winds. Thus far, the winds have been primarily out of the northeast with the typically windy corridors north of San Diego County being more favored. Upper level winds will turn due east across the region this morning as an upper cut-off low moves to the south. Concurrently, the strong surface high over the northern Plains will migrate southward over the next day. As a result, winds will turn easterly and strengthen in favored zones (San Diego County, southern OC, and the eastern Inland Empire) and weaken slightly elsewhere. Wind gusts today will peak around 50-65 mph along coastal slopes and adjacent foothills (locally higher for east-facing slopes and downwind of the Banning Pass). For the valley, corridors of wind gusts 35-55 mph expected, especially in eastern San Diego County. Winds slowly weaken tonight into Saturday as the easterly flow aloft and the surface pressure gradient both weaken. Gusts on Saturday are expected to peak around 40-55 mph along coastal slopes and foothills (locally higher for east-facing slopes. Corridors of gusts 30-45 mph will continue for the valleys. Santa Ana winds weaken further Saturday night and diminish entirely by Sunday. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will continue through Saturday, though relative humidity values will be slightly higher than they were on Thursday. Some influx of moisture from the south will keep RH values mainly above 15% through the remainder of the event. In fact, there is a slight chance of light showers for southern San Diego County Saturday morning, though there is an even lower chance (5-10%) for any wetting rainfall. Looking forward to next week, the return of onshore flow on Monday will bring cooler weather for the coastal basin. Patchy fog is expected Mon/Tue mornings as the marine layer rebuilds itself. Models continue to become better aligned regarding the strength and track of a robust upper-low pressure system expected to swing through the region mid-next week. This will bring a widespread cooling trend starting next Tuesday and widespread precipitation next Wed-Thu. Precipitation will likely remain light to moderate due to lack of any notable moisture source, though model guidance has trended wetter since yesterday. There is still some disagreement on precipitation amounts and extent of cooling at this time. Elevated winds are also expected for mountains, deserts, and coastal waters. Model solutions diverge by next weekend, though the mean of the guidance leans slightly toward upper troughing. && .AVIATION... 160540Z...SKC and VFR today. Northeast winds will remain elevated through tonight, when the strongest and most widespread winds are expected. For the mountain foothills peak gusts of 45 to 55 kt are expected. For the valleys, gusts 30 to 45 kt, locally higher near mountain foothills are likely. Coast and Coachella Valley will also see elevated winds with gusts 20 to 30 kt. There is a potential for gusts of 50 kt to occurat KONT early this morning, increasing around 10Z Fri. Winds will weaken from north to south by 18-22Z. Areas of MOD-STG up/downdrafts in lee of (south and west of) mountains along with areas of LLWS where strong winds do not surface. East winds continue into Sat. && .MARINE... Isolated northeast gusts could exceed 20 knots today into early Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .BEACHES... A south swell from 190 to 200 degrees at 3 to 4 feet with a 15-17 second period will generate elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet, with local sets to 7 feet. There is an increased risk of strong rip currents. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Valleys. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for San Bernardino County Mountains. High Wind Warning until midnight PDT Saturday night for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. High Wind Warning until noon PDT Saturday for Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Wind Advisory until noon PDT Saturday for Orange County Inland Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...KW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Castro  273 FXUS63 KLOT 160815 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 315 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy and seasonably chilly conditions expected today with some scattered showers, wind gusts over 30 mph are expected this afternoon. - East of Gary, lake enhanced showers this afternoon will transition to lake effect showers tonight with a slight chance of a thunderstorm near the shore late this afternoon/early this evening. Wind gusts to 45 mph possible near the northwest Indiana lakefront this afternoon/early evening. - Coldest night of the season expected tonight with lows near/just below freezing across interior portions of northern IL. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Vigorous upper trough evident on water vapor imagery early this morning moving into the upper Mississippi Valley. The associated surface cold front has now pushed east of the CWA with gusty northwesterly winds ushering in a colder and less humid air mass. Showers associated with the cold front will move east of our CWA well before sunrise, however additional scattered showers are expected this afternoon in association with the mid-upper level trough moving across the area. Despite the drier low level air mass advecting in, a pocket of very cold air aloft associated with the trough (-27C at 500mb on 00z Bismark sounding) will aid in destabilization and support scattered showers this afternoon. While scattered showers are expected area wide late this morning into this afternoon, the arrival of the cold air aloft should result in a significant increase in lake induced instability resulting in more widespread and robust showers over Lake Michigan spreading into northwest Indiana (mainly east of Gary). Forecast soundings depict the top of the moist convective layer reaching above the -20C level this afternoon over southern Lake Michigan, which could even allow an isolated thunderstorm or two. The cloud cover, scattered showers, and strong cold air advection should result in very little diurnal recovery in temperatures with temperatures holding nearly steady in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Strong and gusty northwest winds will only add to the chill with gusts over 30 mph likely today. Lake induced instability and less friction will result in even stronger winds over Lake Michigan bleeding onto the northwest Indiana shore this afternoon into early this evening when a few gusts to around 45 mph are expected. Skies clear out early this evening and winds will gradually subside tonight, the exception being into northwest Indiana where lake effect showers will likely continue. The lake cloudiness and showers will keep temps relatively milder over northwest Indiana, but else look for the coldest night thus far this autumn. Have upgraded the freeze watch to a freeze warning and expanded it a bit farther south and east. Have buffered the freeze warning with a frost advisory for a couple of counties, though admittedly, tonight doesn't look particularly favorable for frost. Winds will be slow to subside, though over our western CWA very late tonight we could see winds get close to decoupling. The winds should prevent strong radiational cooling and with T/Td spreads expected to remain at or above 5F, frost potential is pretty iffy tonight. Nonetheless, with temps progged to get close to freezing and winds subsiding toward sunrise, felt it was prudent to hoist a frost advisory out of an abundance of caution and as a hedge in case temps were to get colder and dip to or just below freezing. As the sharp upper trough shifts east of the region later tonight, inversion heights will come crashing down and should shut down the lake effect showers by or just shortly after sunrise Saturday.Outside of the decreasing lake effect cloudiness downwind of the lake Sat AM, look for sunny skies this weekend. Light winds with the still chilly air mass in place should result in below average temps in the 50s for highs Saturday. Saturday night the frost/freeze potential looks greatest away from the immediate lakeshore in northwest Indiana where strong radiational cooling is expected. Frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed Saturday night for at least portions of northwest Indiana and perhaps west into portions of northern IL as well. Our impending cold snap looks to be short lived with warm air advection ramping up Sunday and highs rebounding back into the 60s. Unseasonably mild weather is expected next week with highs approaching 70 Monday and likely in the 70s the rest of the week. Average highs next week drop into the upper 50s, so we'll be looking at high temps 10 to nearly 20F above average by the middle and end of next week. After the shower threat ends over most of the area late this afternoon and downwind of the lake by early Saturday, no precipitation is expected through the rest of the weekend and next week looks dry as well. - Izzi && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - Prevailing MVFR is expected through much of today. - Strong northwest wind gusts 25 to 30 knots overnight, strengthening in excess of 30 knots this afternoon. - Widely scattered showers are expected this afternoon, with best chances around KGYY and northwest Indiana. - Wind gusts diminish after 00Z with improving/clearing sky conditions. With surface low pressure moving east of Chicago, cigs have lifted slightly to MVFR levels. These MVFR cigs are expected to prevail through much of the day, though slowly lifting and breaking up closer to 00Z this evening. Isolated showers still fester over the region, but as the low continues to exit to the east, drier conditions are expected through the overnight. Most impactful will be the strengthening northwest wind gusts through the overnight. Gusts are already being observed between 20 and 25 knots, and that is expected to increase to 25 to 30 knots through daybreak. As deeper mixing occurs during the day, gusts in excess of 30 knots are expected. Isolated gusts between 35 to 40 knots are possible this afternoon, though the better chances remain just over 30 knots. Redeveloping showers in the wake of the surface low is expected this afternoon. There is lower confidence in coverage, though expected to be widely scattered over much of the area, with best chances in northwest Indiana as Lake Michigan will help enhance shower development this afternoon. No changes were made to the PROB30/TEMPO groups, except adjusting for timing expectations. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken after 00Z, winds will turn more northerly and cloud cover will begin to clear. Wind gusts will diminish through the evening with a chance that they end all together after midnight. For now, gusts were maintained at ORD/MDW through 12Z Saturday given the lower confidence on exact timing for gusts ending, but will be re- evaluated at later TAF packages. DK && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 West to northwest winds to 30kt this morning will veer more northerly and increase to gales to 40kt this afternoon. Northerly gales will continue this evening, with strongest gusts to 40kt+ likely within the lake enhanced convergence band and with more robust lake effect showers over the Indiana waters east of Gary. In addition to an isolated thunderstorm or two late this afternoon, conditions are expected to become favorable for waterspouts late this afternoon into this evening. Waterspout risk is expected to diminish late this evening as inversion heights lower. Lake effect shower intensity and coverage will decrease overnight also in response to the decreasing inversion heights. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ003- ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012. Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ006- ILZ019-ILZ020. IN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the IL and IN nearshore waters. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Saturday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  666 FXUS66 KLOX 160824 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 124 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...15/1247 PM. A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind will bring widespread strong winds and critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down is expected Sunday with a chance of widespread rain by Tuesday or Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...15/1054 PM. ***UPDATE*** The Santa Ana winds are well established over the area this evening, with offshore LAX-DAG gradient of 5.5 mb, and offshore LAX-BFL gradient of 4.6 mb, twice as strong as the gradients were 24 hours ago. Peak gusts reached 60-80 mph today, with the strongest winds occuring in the mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Expecting Santa Ana winds to shift further east and strengthen more overnight and into Friday morning. No significant changes in terms of the forecast for the winds, still thinking there is potential for mountain areas to see gusts up to 90 mph and stronger gusts up to 60 mph for the LA valleys, and Ventura valleys and coasts. One high resolution solution indicates significant more widespread downsloped winds developing southwest of the San Gabriel, Santa Susana and Santa Monica mountains after midnight until around 5AM. Peak winds shift to favor the Santa Susana Mountains and Ventura County after 5AM. Gusts during these times could exceed 60 mph at times. Temperatures were quite warm today, especially near the coasts where a few areas pushed the upper 90s. Friday, temperatures were warmed more for portions of Santa Barbara County and southern Ventura County, as the gradients should remain strongly offshore. Expecting more widespread 90s near the coasts, and isolated 100s. Offshore winds weaken Saturday and Sunday, leading to a cooling trend. ***From Previous Discussion*** Santa Ana winds arrived on schedule and with more aggressive speeds than expected. Some areas in the San Gabriel Mountains have already reported 70+ mph wind gusts today and models are still indicating additional upper level support Friday morning as well as offshore gradients from the east peaking between 8 and 9mb. So just making some minor tweaks for Friday based on today's conditions. Temperatures have been warmed a few degrees, especially at the coast where temps will be the warmest, even more so than the valleys. And based on today's wind speeds there's at least a 30-40% chance of wind gusts in the LA County mountains reaching 90mph and similar chances for valleys and Ventura county coastal areas to see wind gusts as high as 60 mph. Since even 1mb of offset in the gradients can result in 5 or more degrees offset in the temperatures, confidence in the exact highs is on the lower side but should be in the ball park. Also, overnight lows will, in general, be quite warm tonight across the coast and valleys. Some areas that stay windy all night may not drop below 75 and wouldn't be surprised if some areas stay above 80 all night. On Saturday, upper level support and surface gradients weaken but still expecting a windy day, albeit probably 15-30 mph weaker than Friday. And with the offshore flow and cold advection weakening as well temperatures at the coast should cool at least a few degrees while valleys and other interior areas either remain the same or warm slightly. For Sunday, all areas except the mountains and deserts will cool at least 3-6 degrees. Interior areas will warm as cold advection continues to weaken. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...15/230 PM. More cooling is in store on Monday as an upper low moves down the coast. Hgts will fall from 580 dam Sunday afternoon to 576 damMonday afternoon. Actual onshore flow will develop and will increase through the day. Some morning marine layer clouds may even develop over the Central Coast. Max temps will fall 4 to 8 degrees. This will bring max temps down to near normals. There is increasing confidence in rain chances next week, though timing is still quite uncertain as are the amounts. Virtually all the solutions from the ENS and GEFS ensembles indicate at least some light rain, most likely starting Wednesday, but could start as early as Tuesday afternoon or as late as Wednesday evening. Rain amounts are even more scattered but mostly around a half inch area-wide. It's a tricky pattern with the upper low dropping south along the California coast and a lot of uncertainnesshow far offshore and where it will turn inland. Might take another few days to have more confidence in amounts and timing. There are more than a few solutions that bring an inch or more so this needs to be followed closely, especially with the possibility of brush fires during the current strong Santa Ana winds. && .AVIATION...16/0822Z. At 06Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. High confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites through the period. Moderate confidence in direction/strength of northeast- east winds, gusts may be off by 020-030 degrees and 10-15 knots respectively. KLAX...High confidence in 06Z in CAVU conditions through the period. Moderate confidence in winds, and there is the potential for an extended period of gusty easterly winds from about 17Z to 22Z, with gusts up to 25 kt. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU conditions through the TAF period. Moderate confidence in winds as timing may be off by 2-3 hours and strength could be +/- 10 knots. && .MARINE...16/122 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across PZZ670/673. For PZZ676, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds today. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds across all of the Outer Waters with seas hovering around SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 40-50% chance of SCA level northeast winds this morning. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours with seas hovering near SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60-70% chance of GALE force winds from Ventura to Santa Monica with a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere (especially across the San Pedro Channel). For tonight and Saturday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Point Mugu to Santa Monica with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Sunday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas except for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354>358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PDT this eveningfor zones 342-345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/MW AVIATION...RM/Phillips/RAT MARINE...RAT/Ciliberti SYNOPSIS...MW/Lewis weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  081 FXUS61 KBOX 160811 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 411 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers this morning followed by a lull in activity for much of the afternoon aside from a few spot showers. Another round of showers with some embedded thunderstorms possible move through between 5-11 pm. Windier and colder Saturday following a strong cold front. * Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. * Dry with more seasonable through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters towards the midweek period. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers this morning followed by a lull in activity for much of the afternoon aside from a few spot showers. Another round of showers with some embedded thunderstorms possible move through between 5-11 pm. Windier and colder Saturday following a strong cold front. High pressure continues to drift off to the east early this morning and showers have starting to make their way into parts of western MA and CT. These will continue to track through the region this morning, spreading from west to east. This is associated with a 1004 mb low pressure system currently over the Great Lakes region that will track along the southern Ontario/Quebec and northeast US border as the day goes on. As it does, the low is expected to continue deepening as its associated upper level shortwave trough also deepens, cutting well into the Midwest by this evening. Showers this morning will likely last a few hours at any given location. Winds have already shifted more southerly this morning, which will help kick off the advection of an anomalous moisture plume and warmer air. PWATs up to 1.75" and even approaching 2.0" will creep into southern New England as the low's warm front moves through by the early afternoon. Once this warm front tracks through, the system's warm sector will settle overhead for the afternoon. This will provide a bit of a respite from steady showers ahead of the next expected round of rain, though a few spot showers cannot be completely ruled out. 925 mb temperatures while under this warm sector will increase to the 16-18C range with 850 mb temperatures around 15C as warm air advection moves in full force. Highs will likely reach the upper 60s and low 70s as a result. A southerly LLJ also sets up, with the core of it at 925 mb ranging between 45-50 kt. Amidst some of the model discrepancies, the general agreement is the core of this will be just over the eastern waters in the afternoon, reaching up to 60 kt (though the NAM goes even higher at 65 kt). This same signature is also noted at 850 mb. Model soundings do, however, indicate an inversion at the low to mid levels which would inhibit this jet from fully mixing down. Gusty winds to 30 mph are not out of the question, and some could see 35 mph gusts closer to the eastern coastlines. Cloudy conditions persist through the day as well, given the abundant moisture aloft. Our concern then turns to the next round of rain towards the evening hours, which could include some embedded thunderstorms. Not much has changed in the CAMs for the 5-11 pm timeframe today, as they've continued to show the development of a "fine line" tracking from west to east across the region. High-res guidance still indicates a few hundred J/kg this afternoon and evening ahead of the low's strong cold front, though 0-6 km effective bulk shear is in the 50- 60 kt range with strong jet dynamics. Given this environment, some embedded thunderstorms could develop as this line of showers moves through southern New England. Even with the forcing from the approaching cold front, the limited instability should keep the severe potential for any embedded thunderstorms that may develop quite low. This high shear/low CAPE environment may still produce some instances of sub-severe gusts to 50 mph though, and much of southern New England is under a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather today. Western portions of central CT are in a Slight (2/5) risk for severe weather today, though also for the risk of severe and damaging winds. Latest CSU ML guidance has much of the northeast under a 5-15% chance for severe winds today as well, so it cannot be entirely ruled out. This will continue to be monitored ahead of and during the event. Some of the high-res guidance also showed a signal for a some post- frontal rain across southeastern New England, though by the time this arrives, the threat for any embedded thunderstorms will have dropped considerably. Event rainfall totals are expected to generally range between 0.3-0.7" across southern New England. Depending on where some embedded thunderstorms/more convective showers set up, some spots could see locally higher totals, especially given the high PWAT environment. KEY MESSAGE 2...Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. As the cold front crosses southern New England through Saturday morning, strong cold air advection is left in its wake. 925 mb temperatures fall below 0C by Saturday evening, and PWATs fall below 0.25" once more as colder, drier air sets in. Lows Friday night fall into the 40s and upper 30s (towards the high elevations). Highs Saturday may struggle to reach the low 50s across the interior and lows Saturday night will likely dip below freezing across the region, with the exceptions being areas closest to the coasts and urban areas. Once the gusty NW winds drop off earlier in the overnight period Saturday, we could see some radiational cooling develop as high pressure builds in post-FROPA, enhancing an already relatively cold night for some locations. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry with more seasonable through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters towards the midweek period. High pressure continues to build in Sunday and a more seasonably cool airmass moves into the region, and the tighter gradient between the strong exiting low and approaching high pressure slackens. This will allow winds to let up as well, diminishing slightly heading into the second half of the weekend and the start of next week. As high pressure settles overhead as well, temperatures will moderate back to more typical levels for this time of year as highs return to the 50s and 60s into early next week. One thing we will be keeping an eye on, though, is the development of a cutoff low towards the mid-Atlantic/Carolina coastal waters. This feature appears to have detached from the broader upper level trough that was associated with the strong low pressure that is impacting us today. There is some uncertainty with regards to our region seeing any impacts from this cutoff low, especially given the strength of the ridge overhead during this point in the forecast. Even then, at most, it would lead to some scattered showers towards the Cape and Islands at closest and more NE breezes. Much can change between now and this timeframe, but as of now, impacts look minimal to zero. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: No significant changes from the previous update. Forecast remains on track. Through 12z...High confidence. VFR, though increasing moisture brings ceilings starting to lower to around MVFR levels for BDL/ORH after 09z; rain showers could develop as soon as 09-11z from west to east, but steadier rains probably holds off until 11-13z from west to east. Light SE winds increase in speed to around 5-10 kt by daybreak. Friday...Moderate confidence. Deteriorating conditions to MVFR-IFR levels. Initial warm- frontal rains with 3-6 SM visby SHRA will bring ceilings to mainly MVFR levels starting ~11-13z, but period IFR ceilings possible. There probably will be more intermittent/lighter SHRA/DZ (could even be dry for periods) after 17-19z west to east, but ceilings should then trend IFR as rain lightens. Then a strong cold front brings another period of 2-4 SM SHRA/+SHRA from 23-04z in a line, low chance for TSRA with localized gusty winds in that timeframe but left out for now due to low confidence. Winds start SE around 10 kt through 16-19z with the warm frontal rains, then shift to S around 10-12 kt with gusts to low-20s kt range, then becoming SW to WSW at similar speeds ahead of the cold front. Friday Night...Moderate confidence. Cold front moves offshore early Fri night; showers begin to taper off between 03-06z west to east with ceilings rapidly improving to VFR. Windshift to NW with frontal passage, and becoming increasingly gusty, speeds 13-17 kt with gusts 25-30 kt becoming more common after 06z. Saturday...Moderate confidence. Rain clears quickly following the frontal passage, however, some lingering showers could continue in the morning hours towards the Cape and Islands. These should move out by the afternoon. Otherwise, generally VFR. Gusty NW winds up to 30 kt possible, sustained at 10-20 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR for tonight with high confidence. SHRA develops around 13z with MVFR visby and MVFR/periods IFR ceilings. More focused period of IFR as initial rain tapers off by midafternoon; line of SHRA/+SHRA with possible rumble of thunder between 00-03z Sat before gusty northwest windshift after 06z Sat. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Mainly VFR tonight, ceilings start to lower to MVFR by 09z Fri. SHRA develops around 11z with MVFR visby and MVFR/periods IFR ceilings. More focused period of IFR as initial rain tapers off by early to midafternoon; line of SHRA/+SHRA with possible rumble of thunder between 22-01z Sat before gusty northwest windshift after 03z Sat. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday...High confidence. Intensifying low pressure will continue to track near the northern New England/Quebec border today into this evening. Ahead of this low, strong small craft southerly wind gusts along with choppy seas will develop early today. Behind this cold front, NW wind gusts of 30-35 knots will develop especially late tonight into Sat morning in the CAA pattern. Latest guidance has still shown more marginal Gale conditions, so a Gale Watch remains over these areas. Despite marginal conditions, cold air advection patterns can often overperform this time of year given relatively warm SST which can enhance mixing. Either way, strong SCA to gale force wind gusts are expected with choppy seas. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-236. Gale Watch from this evening through Saturday evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-280>283. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin MARINE...Frank/Hrencecin  081 FXUS61 KBOX 160811 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 411 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers this morning followed by a lull in activity for much of the afternoon aside from a few spot showers. Another round of showers with some embedded thunderstorms possible move through between 5-11 pm. Windier and colder Saturday following a strong cold front. * Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. * Dry with more seasonable through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters towards the midweek period. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers this morning followed by a lull in activity for much of the afternoon aside from a few spot showers. Another round of showers with some embedded thunderstorms possible move through between 5-11 pm. Windier and colder Saturday following a strong cold front. High pressure continues to drift off to the east early this morning and showers have starting to make their way into parts of western MA and CT. These will continue to track through the region this morning, spreading from west to east. This is associated with a 1004 mb low pressure system currently over the Great Lakes region that will track along the southern Ontario/Quebec and northeast US border as the day goes on. As it does, the low is expected to continue deepening as its associated upper level shortwave trough also deepens, cutting well into the Midwest by this evening. Showers this morning will likely last a few hours at any given location. Winds have already shifted more southerly this morning, which will help kick off the advection of an anomalous moisture plume and warmer air. PWATs up to 1.75" and even approaching 2.0" will creep into southern New England as the low's warm front moves through by the early afternoon. Once this warm front tracks through, the system's warm sector will settle overhead for the afternoon. This will provide a bit of a respite from steady showers ahead of the next expected round of rain, though a few spot showers cannot be completely ruled out. 925 mb temperatures while under this warm sector will increase to the 16-18C range with 850 mb temperatures around 15C as warm air advection moves in full force. Highs will likely reach the upper 60s and low 70s as a result. A southerly LLJ also sets up, with the core of it at 925 mb ranging between 45-50 kt. Amidst some of the model discrepancies, the general agreement is the core of this will be just over the eastern waters in the afternoon, reaching up to 60 kt (though the NAM goes even higher at 65 kt). This same signature is also noted at 850 mb. Model soundings do, however, indicate an inversion at the low to mid levels which would inhibit this jet from fully mixing down. Gusty winds to 30 mph are not out of the question, and some could see 35 mph gusts closer to the eastern coastlines. Cloudy conditions persist through the day as well, given the abundant moisture aloft. Our concern then turns to the next round of rain towards the evening hours, which could include some embedded thunderstorms. Not much has changed in the CAMs for the 5-11 pm timeframe today, as they've continued to show the development of a "fine line" tracking from west to east across the region. High-res guidance still indicates a few hundred J/kg this afternoon and evening ahead of the low's strong cold front, though 0-6 km effective bulk shear is in the 50- 60 kt range with strong jet dynamics. Given this environment, some embedded thunderstorms could develop as this line of showers moves through southern New England. Even with the forcing from the approaching cold front, the limited instability should keep the severe potential for any embedded thunderstorms that may develop quite low. This high shear/low CAPE environment may still produce some instances of sub-severe gusts to 50 mph though, and much of southern New England is under a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather today. Western portions of central CT are in a Slight (2/5) risk for severe weather today, though also for the risk of severe and damaging winds. Latest CSU ML guidance has much of the northeast under a 5-15% chance for severe winds today as well, so it cannot be entirely ruled out. This will continue to be monitored ahead of and during the event. Some of the high-res guidance also showed a signal for a some post- frontal rain across southeastern New England, though by the time this arrives, the threat for any embedded thunderstorms will have dropped considerably. Event rainfall totals are expected to generally range between 0.3-0.7" across southern New England. Depending on where some embedded thunderstorms/more convective showers set up, some spots could see locally higher totals, especially given the high PWAT environment. KEY MESSAGE 2...Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. As the cold front crosses southern New England through Saturday morning, strong cold air advection is left in its wake. 925 mb temperatures fall below 0C by Saturday evening, and PWATs fall below 0.25" once more as colder, drier air sets in. Lows Friday night fall into the 40s and upper 30s (towards the high elevations). Highs Saturday may struggle to reach the low 50s across the interior and lows Saturday night will likely dip below freezing across the region, with the exceptions being areas closest to the coasts and urban areas. Once the gusty NW winds drop off earlier in the overnight period Saturday, we could see some radiational cooling develop as high pressure builds in post-FROPA, enhancing an already relatively cold night for some locations. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry with more seasonable through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters towards the midweek period. High pressure continues to build in Sunday and a more seasonably cool airmass moves into the region, and the tighter gradient between the strong exiting low and approaching high pressure slackens. This will allow winds to let up as well, diminishing slightly heading into the second half of the weekend and the start of next week. As high pressure settles overhead as well, temperatures will moderate back to more typical levels for this time of year as highs return to the 50s and 60s into early next week. One thing we will be keeping an eye on, though, is the development of a cutoff low towards the mid-Atlantic/Carolina coastal waters. This feature appears to have detached from the broader upper level trough that was associated with the strong low pressure that is impacting us today. There is some uncertainty with regards to our region seeing any impacts from this cutoff low, especially given the strength of the ridge overhead during this point in the forecast. Even then, at most, it would lead to some scattered showers towards the Cape and Islands at closest and more NE breezes. Much can change between now and this timeframe, but as of now, impacts look minimal to zero. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: No significant changes from the previous update. Forecast remains on track. Through 12z...High confidence. VFR, though increasing moisture brings ceilings starting to lower to around MVFR levels for BDL/ORH after 09z; rain showers could develop as soon as 09-11z from west to east, but steadier rains probably holds off until 11-13z from west to east. Light SE winds increase in speed to around 5-10 kt by daybreak. Friday...Moderate confidence. Deteriorating conditions to MVFR-IFR levels. Initial warm- frontal rains with 3-6 SM visby SHRA will bring ceilings to mainly MVFR levels starting ~11-13z, but period IFR ceilings possible. There probably will be more intermittent/lighter SHRA/DZ (could even be dry for periods) after 17-19z west to east, but ceilings should then trend IFR as rain lightens. Then a strong cold front brings another period of 2-4 SM SHRA/+SHRA from 23-04z in a line, low chance for TSRA with localized gusty winds in that timeframe but left out for now due to low confidence. Winds start SE around 10 kt through 16-19z with the warm frontal rains, then shift to S around 10-12 kt with gusts to low-20s kt range, then becoming SW to WSW at similar speeds ahead of the cold front. Friday Night...Moderate confidence. Cold front moves offshore early Fri night; showers begin to taper off between 03-06z west to east with ceilings rapidly improving to VFR. Windshift to NW with frontal passage, and becoming increasingly gusty, speeds 13-17 kt with gusts 25-30 kt becoming more common after 06z. Saturday...Moderate confidence. Rain clears quickly following the frontal passage, however, some lingering showers could continue in the morning hours towards the Cape and Islands. These should move out by the afternoon. Otherwise, generally VFR. Gusty NW winds up to 30 kt possible, sustained at 10-20 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR for tonight with high confidence. SHRA develops around 13z with MVFR visby and MVFR/periods IFR ceilings. More focused period of IFR as initial rain tapers off by midafternoon; line of SHRA/+SHRA with possible rumble of thunder between 00-03z Sat before gusty northwest windshift after 06z Sat. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Mainly VFR tonight, ceilings start to lower to MVFR by 09z Fri. SHRA develops around 11z with MVFR visby and MVFR/periods IFR ceilings. More focused period of IFR as initial rain tapers off by early to midafternoon; line of SHRA/+SHRA with possible rumble of thunder between 22-01z Sat before gusty northwest windshift after 03z Sat. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday...High confidence. Intensifying low pressure will continue to track near the northern New England/Quebec border today into this evening. Ahead of this low, strong small craft southerly wind gusts along with choppy seas will develop early today. Behind this cold front, NW wind gusts of 30-35 knots will develop especially late tonight into Sat morning in the CAA pattern. Latest guidance has still shown more marginal Gale conditions, so a Gale Watch remains over these areas. Despite marginal conditions, cold air advection patterns can often overperform this time of year given relatively warm SST which can enhance mixing. Either way, strong SCA to gale force wind gusts are expected with choppy seas. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-236. Gale Watch from this evening through Saturday evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-280>283. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin MARINE...Frank/Hrencecin  263 FXUS65 KPIH 160803 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 203 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon highs gradually warm over the next several days. - Dry conditions continue through the weekend. - Wetter and cooler conditions return by mid-week next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High pressure overhead continues to mean warming temperatures and dry conditions across our coverage area. While morning temperatures will generally be in the 30s for the next few mornings, highs return to the 60s each afternoon, pushing towards near 70 degrees around the Burley area by Saturday afternoon, with temperatures just a couple of degrees cooler on Sunday. Overall, it should be a very pleasant end of the week/weekend for anyone with outdoor plans or if you are just looking forward to having the windows open! An upper level low drops south along the West Coast early next week and will eventually bring us cooler temperatures and wetter conditions. Now, WHEN the precipitation actually arrives is a bit of a toss up at this point. The ECMWF brings some precipitation chances from this low to our area as early as Tuesday morning and then more on Thursday/Friday. The GFS does bring some light precipitation on Tuesday, but it really holds off on the main push of precipitation until almost Friday. We'll see how far south this low actually drops and how quickly it moves eastward and how models continue to change over the next few days. At this point, the NBM brings temperatures back down to the 50s as early as Tuesday and 30 to 40 percent precipitation chances to most of our area almost every day next week after Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 910 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Clear skies and light winds are expected the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Warming temperatures and very dry conditions will continue through at least the weekend thanks to high pressure overhead. Highs will warm into at least the 60s if not pushing towards 70 degrees in the lower elevations, especially in the eastern Magic Valley. Today and tomorrow look to be the driest days as far as min RHs go, around 12 to 20 percent in the Central Mountains and part of FWZ 422. Elsewhere, min RHs will range from 25 to 35 percent. Look for another system to bring cooler, wetter conditions back to the area next week. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMM AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...AMM  165 FXUS63 KTOP 160812 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 312 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A blustery and much cooler day is in store for today. - There is increasing confidence in frost with potential freeze conditions late tonight into Saturday morning. Freeze Watch remains in effect across northern portions of the area with a Frost Advisory issued elsewhere. - Temperatures warm back up into next week with low rain chances returning late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The upper air pattern early this morning shows a trough axis extending from Ontario through the Upper Midwest into KS, a ridge pushing into the PNW, and a weaker low over SoCal and the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. At the surface, low pressure has moved into the Great Lakes region with its cold front extending into the Lower MS River Valley, while high pressure dominates the western half of the CONUS. This puts us firmly within CAA as northwest winds remain breezy. Winds will increase during the daytime hours today as mixing commences, gusting 30-40mph at times while sustained at 15-25mph. Stratus clouds can be seen upstream on satellite with some wrap- around low-level moisture behind the departing system, so between that and the colder air mass, highs are only forecast to top out in the low to mid 50s today. Skies should clear out mid to late afternoon and winds should diminish by sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes and mixing subsides. With the sfc high moving directly overhead tonight into Saturday morning, this sets the stage for a good radiational cooling scenario. NBM morning lows sit around the 25th percentile of all guidance, which seems reasonable for this setup. Looking at the range of models, still think that the area for the going Freeze Watch pretty well captures where temperatures have at least a 50% chance of reaching or falling just below freezing. In collaborating with neighboring offices, opted to leave the watch in place for now and issue the Frost Advisory elsewhere as those areas are likely to fall to the low to mid 30s. The colder temperatures look short-lived with a warming trend taking shape the rest of the weekend into next week. The sfc high moves east Saturday afternoon with the upper ridge moving in as the low to our southwest stays cut off. This favors a return to southwest flow in the low levels and eventually aloft, helping temperatures to warm to the upper 50s Saturday and eventually the 60s and 70s early next week. By Wednesday and Thursday, the upper pattern becomes more amplified with a deepening trough on the Pacific coast and the ridge strengthening its hold over the Southern and Central Plains. Some low 80s return to the forecast by that point. Dry weather dominates most of next week with low rain chances returning late Thursday into Friday as the western trough approaches. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Northwest winds will remain breezy through the night with gusts increasing a bit during the late morning through afternoon, peaking around 30 kts during that time frame. Guidance appears to be coming into decent agreement on bringing MVFR cigs into eastern KS during the late morning and early afternoon as well, with lesser confidence towards MHK which is along the edge of the MVFR stratus. This should clear to the east mid to late afternoon, followed by winds decreasing to under 10 kts after sunset. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ026-KSZ037- KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Picha  170 FXUS63 KLBF 160833 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Back to back cold mornings Friday and Saturday, when Freeze Warnings and Freeze Watches are in effect, should lead to an end to the growing season for all of west and north central Nebraska. - Dry and warmer conditions will lead to at least some elevated fire concerns on Saturday, favoring areas west of Highway 83. - Warmer and drier conditions return for Sunday and into next week, with highs returning to the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Early this morning, gusty north winds were prevalent across the area. This has led to a fairly quick influx of dry air which helped temperatures fall quickly across portions of western Nebraska. By 1am CDT, many locations were already in the 30s. The exception to this was areas beneath an increasing plume of low/mid-level stratus across the eastern Sandhills through north central Nebraska. While this will continue to expand across the area, do anticipate enough breaks for many locations to fall into the 30s with upper 20s further west in the Panhandle where Freeze Warnings are in effect through late morning Friday. Today/Tonight...north to northwest winds will remain blustery through at least daybreak on Friday, with gradual decreases by early afternoon if not midday. Within the post frontal airmass with approaching Canadian high pressure, expect a cooler day with afternoon highs in the lower 50s if not upper 40s for a few select locations. This will occur beneath sunny skies and as alluded to, with weakening winds falling to less than 20 mph by the afternoon and likely to less than 15 mph for most if not all locations by early evening. This will occur as central high pressure settles through the area with return southerly flow redeveloping. This casts some uncertainty regarding low temperatures Friday night/Saturday morning. Though timing of the central high pressure in the area favors near to prior to Midnight versus the early morning hours, the anticipated light winds beneath clear skies should allow for at least a few hours of favorable radiational cooling. Statistical guidance is quite bullish on the coldest morning temperatures of the season thus far, painting expansive 20s and even a few locations making a run at upper teens in our far west. This, following the anticipated cold from Friday morning, should effectively end the growing season in the local area. All non-warned zones from Friday morning have a Freeze Watch in place for Saturday morning. This headline appears on track for now so no changes were made to the inherited products. Should timing favor a quicker departure and thus quicker development of return southwesterly flow in our west, temperatures may need altered with subsequent forecasts so some uncertainty remains. Saturday/Saturday Night...upper ridging upstream will shuffle east towards the Continental Divide by early Saturday. Subsequent breakdown of this ridging should occur through the day Saturday as embedded troughing stalls near the Baja of California. Flow aloft will gradually back to southwesterly though this will occur too late to allow moisture to lift northeast out of the Desert Southwest. The result is warmer temperatures from approaching high pressure aloft and downsloping winds within a dry airmass. In fact, some fire weather concerns appear probable for west of Highway 83. While low humidity is likely to be observed, how much wind overlap materializes remains in question. Flow aloft appears fairly weak, particularly at h7, which will likely limit mixing heights as a result. Though h85 flow appears relatively strong through the day, the speed max at this level should focus over Highway 83 whereas the lowest humidity should be bottled up in the Panhandle. HREF joint probabilities show a high likelihood (80%+) of marginal fire conditions (< 35% RH, > 10 mph sustained winds) but these largely fall off to 50-60% for seeing near-critical (< 20% RH, > 15 mph sustained winds). The one area to watch will be Zones 204/210 and western Zones 206/208. Raw output from the high resolution ARW suggests this is a threat worth monitoring in the coming days. Afternoon highs should range from middle 70s west to low 60s east. Given proximity to the speed max off the surface, believe gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range are possible. The gustier winds should persist into the overnight hours and this will keep overnight lows on the milder side. Though some 30s appear possible for southwest Nebraska into the southern Panhandle, areas of northern and north central Nebraska should hold into the low to middle 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Quieter conditions are expected as we head into Sunday, with upper ridging expected to amplify across the central CONUS as we head into early next week. In fact, the upper pattern begins to transition towards an omega block pattern, with the central US positioned between a cutoff low just off the coast of the eastern US and a deep upper low over the southwestern US. This leaves the area under the influence of the aforementioned upper ridging through the middle of next week, and lead to high temperatures moderating back into the 70s for all by Tuesday (70s expected Sat/Sun across western NE). Locations across southwest Nebraska will make a run at the lower 80s by midweek. This will also coincide with drier conditions, though fire concerns look to remain low due to surface dewpoints increasing back into the lower 50s. This will keep minimum afternoon humidity elevated in the 30-40% range, along with winds generally remaining below 20 miles per hour each day. In all, this points to a return of pleasant fall weather, with mostly sunny, dry, and mild conditions returning through the middle of next week. By late week, the western US upper low will begin to eject east across the Rockies by late Friday, bringing a return of southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, low pressure will begin to eject across the Dakotas by Friday evening, and this drags a cold front into the area sometime Saturday. This looks to bring a return of cooler highs and some threat for precipitation as we head into next weekend, and this will need to be monitored going forward. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Low stratus will continue to overspread terminals near and east of HWY 83 Friday morning, leading to MVFR CIGs through early Friday afternoon. By late Friday afternoon, VFR conditions are expected to prevail into Saturday morning across western and north central Nebraska. Strong northwest winds continue through sunrise Friday for all terminals before gradually weakening into Friday afternoon. Winds then become light and variable by Friday night, at 5kts or less. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NEZ004-022-023- 035-056>058-069-094. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ005>010-024>029-036>038-059-070-071. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Brown  806 FXUS65 KRIW 160846 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 246 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A mostly sunny and cool autumn day today, with highs in the 50s. - A warming trend will return for the upcoming weekend, with highs reaching the upper 50s west of the Divide, and the 60s to lower 70s for central Wyoming. - Rain chances start to move back into southwest Wyoming for the latter half of the week, but current chances remain low for most areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High pressure will remain the dominant feature this weekend, deflecting weather systems into southern Canada. Temperatures today will recover back into the 50s after starting in the 20s across the state. The ridge will bring even warmer temperatures on Saturday, with highs west of the divide around 60 degrees, while areas across central WY reach well into the 60s. Gusty southwest winds reaching 30 mph will sweep from Rock Springs northeast across Casper into northeast Wyoming. These warmer winds will bring even warmer temperatures across Johnson County Saturday, with highs well into the 70s. A weak cold front is dragged southward late Saturday from a weather system crossing southern Canada. This will bring light north winds back into central WY, bringing high temps back down into the 50s for Sunday. The next weather impact into next week depends on placement of the trough dropping down the West Coast. Moisture wrapping around the bottom of the trough may feed into southwest WY for the latter half of the week, bringing a chance for showers. Currently models have been leaning away from any significant rainfall, and have been delaying the initial arrival of the moisture farther into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 950 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure has developed across the area and the result is mostly light wind, clear skies, and VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is a low chance (10-15%) of patchy fog or low clouds at KBPI and KPNA early Friday morning. Wind will remain well below 10 knots at most terminals. Wind will increase Friday morning at KCPR with wind around 15 knots and gusts around 25 knots through Friday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ005-006-010- 011-016>020-028>030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Rowe  216 FXUS61 KCTP 160858 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 458 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No significant changes. Severe threat remains highest across the Eastern half of PA this afternoon and early this evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A potent cold front preceded and accompanied by an anomalously strong low-level WSW jet of 45-55 kts will move SE across PA today with a severe threat focused this aftn/evening. 2) Windy with the first snowflakes of the season possible on the higher terrain of the north tonight/Sat morning 3) Cold weather may end the growing season for many places this weekend, with Sun morning the coldest. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A potent cold front preceded and accompanied by an anomalously strong low-level WSW jet of 45-55 kts will move SE across PA today with a severe threat focused this aftn/evening. A surface warm front extending from KELM to KUNV and KAOO/KCBE at 08Z will drift northeast across the Susq Valley and Eastern PA through the mid morning hours. This weather feature will bring a few periods of moderate to briefly heavy rain showers before a several hour lull in the rainfall occurs for the late morning and early afternoon hours. The rather optimal timing of the break in the showers for much of the CWA during the late morning/early afternoon will allow for at least some air mass destabilization before a strong cold front begins to approach from the west. The HREF shows surface-based CAPE approaching 1000 J/kg for areas east of I-99 which will be more than sufficient for widespread thunderstorm development along the front in the high shear/relatively low CAPE envir. With 925-850 mb West-Southwesterly winds averaging 45-55 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear expected to be in the 40 to 60 knot range and oriented nearly parallel to the surface boundary, initial discrete cells should quickly merge into a low-topped, fast- moving squall line containing mini-bows, capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. SPC continues the wind-driven slight risk of severe TSRA over the approx eastern half of the CWA to highlight this threat. We will also need to watch the leading edge of the line for brief QLCS tornadoes (mainly over the Susquehanna Valley and points east) as model soundings show between 20 and 30 knots of 0-1 km shear and over 100 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE that may aid in stretching any vorticity. The threat will likely be maximized (although a much lower chance than the potential for damaging wind gusts) during the afternoon over southeast PA, and this is where SPC has included a 2 percent tornado contour. ----------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Windy with the first snowflakes of the season possible on the higher terrain of the north tonight/Sat morning The post-frontal pressure gradient is pretty tight with 10mb of drop across the state tonight and Saturday morning. 50+KT winds behind the cold front will stay AOA 6-7kft and soundings from both the RAP and the NAM show NW winds at the top of the mixed layer remaining below 40 knots. This should prevent wind gusts from getting any stronger than 35 or 40 mph and a Wind Advisory continues to be a low probability. 850 mb temps over Lake Erie will fall to around -5C by Saturday morning as a much colder air mass moves in. This is certainly cold enough to support lake effect clouds with lake surface temps still in the low 60s, but the potential for widespread rain or snow showers continues to decrease. Northerly flow will result in a very short fetch across the lakes, so moisture will be greatly limited. Even though model RH profiles do show saturation in the DGZ, significantly drier air below that level should prevent much of the precipitation from reaching the ground. That being said, most models do still show a few light rain or snow showers developing over the northern tier. The window of opportunity for these showers will be rather short as drier air moves in by mid-morning. ------------------------------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 3: Cold weather may end the growing season for many places Sun morning. A large surface high moves in for the weekend, supplying dry but cold weather for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will hold the coldest daytime temps with temps getting just above 40F in the NE and 52F in the SE. Those maxes will be 20-30F lower than Friday's maxes. The current forecast show temperature dropping below freezing Saturday morning over parts of northwest PA, but there is still some uncertainty regarding just how low temperatures get since it should stay pretty cloudy for much of the night. If confidence continues to increase in parts of the region dipping below 32, a Freeze Warning may be needed for some zones across north-central PA. McKean County would be left out of any freeze products since their growing season has already ended. Frost is less of a concern Friday night/Saturday morning due to the aforementioned cloud cover as well as the fact that winds likely stay pretty gusty. Sunday morning will be the most-likely time for sub-freezing temps across much of the CWA. This could end the growing season for a significant portion of the forecast area. A widespread frost is almost a certainty as winds decrease and go mainly calm Sun AM. We'll be considering appropriate frost/freeze products, but it is still too early to be that confident on details. Sunday night will likely also feature fairly widespread frost, but the location of any frost/freeze headlines will depend on where the growing season remains active after the previous night's freeze. High pressure is expected to remain in control for at least the first half of next week. This will result in mainly dry weather with high temperatures returning to the upper 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low cigs (anywhere from IFR to VLIFR) early today will occur in advance and likely for a few hours in the wake of a warm front moving through the Central Mtns and Susq Valley through about daybreak. Upward vertical motion over this boundary will bring a few, brief periods of moderate to heavy rain showers to roughly the NE quadrant of the state through 12Z. Stronger 40+ DBZ cores of radar reflectivity should remain below the -10C level for the most part, so the prob of thunder is low early today and much of the wording for TSRA through the mid-morning was removed. LLWS is likely to be widespread across the CWA prior to the Cold Frontal passage this morning/through mid afternoon as we see the base of 35-45 kt south to southwesterly winds down to between 1000-1500 ft AGL. A break in the precipitation will likely occur during the late morning for most airfields between the warm and the cold front, but ceilings will likely stay at or near IFR conditions throughout the day. Winds will likely be most gusty over the western terminals of JST and AOO with guts of 35kts possible. During the 15-17Z period today, the cold front will arrive over northwestern PA, bringing a growing line of heavy showers and thunderstorms that will gradually strengthen and progress southeastward - crossing the Central Mtns during the mid afternoon hours and Mid-Lower Susq Valley respectively, late this afternoon/early this evening. Brief wind gusts over 40 kts from the WSW-W, vsbys down to 1-2SM and CIGS under 1 KFT AGL are likely as the cold front and line of heaviest SHRA/TSRA moves through. Outlook... Late today and Sat...Gusty NW winds of 30-35 KTS behind front late today into early Sat. Lingering SHRA across N/W PA with some -SHSN mixing in early Saturday morning. Restrictions likely at airfields that mix over to SHSN. Precipitation tapers off by sunrise, VFR prevails with gusty winds. Sun-Tue...AM fog possible; otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Bauco DISCUSSION...Lambert/Bauco AVIATION...Lambert/Martin  438 FXUS63 KMPX 160817 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 317 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds with gusts to 45 mph possible across western and southern MN this morning. - Subfreezing temperatures for southern MN and western WI tonight. - Elevated fire weather concerns this weekend, then temperatures turn back to above normal next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Scattered showers are ongoing early this morning as a trough axis swings through. The showers are expected to end from northwest to southeast during the next few hours as the axis propagates away from the region. Clouds will clear Surface high pressure over the Rockies and northern Plains will continue to build south today. Gusty northwest winds have developed across western MN and will continue to spread southeast this morning. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for some gusts to reach 45 mph, but low level lapse rates aren't dry adiabatic due to the lack of strong cold air advection. Therefore, such gusts will be more sporadic with 35-40 mph gusts more common. Winds will gradually subside this afternoon and become light and variable this evening as high pressure builds to the central Plains. With the ridge axis overhead, clear skies, and light winds in place this evening, temperatures should drop quickly into the 30s. Frost formation is likely by late evening area wide. During the overnight hours, the high will shift to the southern Plains and return flow will increase, particularly across central and western MN. This should halt additional frost formation, and may keep temperatures from reaching freezing in those areas. Therefore, kept the Freeze Watch going across portions of central and western MN where winds should increase to around 10 kts late tonight. Farther south and east, winds should remain decoupled for much of the night and the likelihood of subfreezing temperatures is higher. Upgraded southern MN and western WI to a Freeze Warning. The urban heat island of the Twin Cities metro should keep temperatures above 32, but light winds and high RH with temps in the mid 30s should allow frost. Upgraded to a Frost Advisory there. With southwest winds increasing late tonight, temperatures are expected to make a rebound as early as tomorrow. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected. Breezy conditions with wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph and RH in the 30s will lead to elevated fire weather conditions, especially in areas that largely missed the soaking rain Thursday. A near repeat for Sunday, although temperatures will warm to the mid to upper 60s. Next week will feature a ridge across much of the CONUS with troughs on the east and west coasts. Very quiet and mild weather will result and temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s each day from Tuesday onward, or 15 to 20 degrees above normal. A weak short wave passing through Wednesday will bring a low chance for rain, with additional chances coming next weekend as the western long wave trough finally begins to approach. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR cigs and scattered showers will continue overnight. Clouds will decrease later in the morning with clear skies thereafter. Northwest winds will increase during the next several hours with gusts peaking in the morning then decreasing in the afternoon and evening. KMSP...MVFR cigs are expected to arrive between 07-08Z then scatter out later in the morning. Occasional light rain showers through early morning. Winds will increase overnight with gusts of 30-35 kts during the morning hours. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10G20kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts.&& .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Meeker- Morrison-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Wright- Yellow Medicine. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Blue Earth- Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Isanti-Kanabec-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Mille Lacs-Nicollet- Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Anoka- Hennepin-Ramsey-Washington. WI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Borghoff