986 FXUS61 KILN 161033 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 633 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold front moves through today, bringing gusty winds and decreasing temperatures this morning. Occasional periods of light rain will also occur. 2) High pressure brings below normal temperatures to the region this weekend. Frost is likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures slowly moderate into midweek, and conditions remain dry for the rest of the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1) Temperatures are at their warmest to start the day as the cold front approaches from the west early this morning. As the cold front moves through between 6 AM and 1 PM, temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s quickly drop into the 50s, remaining there through the afternoon. A period of gusty winds between 25 and 35 mph will occur with the frontal passage and through the afternoon, especially across west-central and central Ohio. A very thin line of showers may eventually develop along the front as it moves through central/southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky late this morning and into the early afternoon, however, much of the rainfall in the forecast is associated with favorable jet streak dynamics with the deep trough moving through the region. The period of light rain develops aloft behind the front, persisting through the afternoon. While light, this rainfall will only add to the dreary conditions behind the front. The better jet dynamics shift off to the east during the early evening hours, but the main trough axis will begin to pivot southeast through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley this evening. The trough drives a secondary cold front southward through the area this evening, bringing a renewed period of wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph for tonight. Temperatures will be driven down further, pushing low temperatures into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Given the expectation that the winds will not go calm, frost potential is lower for tonight into Saturday morning. Key Message 2) The trough shifts to the east on Saturday, allowing high pressure to build directly over the Ohio Valley by Saturday evening. Clouds are likely a bit stubborn Saturday afternoon across central/southern Ohio, but they eventually clear by the evening hours. As noted in previous forecasts, given the placement of the high pressure, the current forecast for low temperatures Saturday night is a couple degrees lower than NBM deterministic guidance. Most areas drop into the lower 30s with upper 20s also occurring, especially within the valleys. A freeze watch will be needed at some point, within the next one or two forecast cycles. The center of the high pressure shifts off to the east on Sunday, but conditions will remain favorable for frost development into Monday morning. Temperatures gradually moderate each day during the next work week. They are back to seasonal normals on Monday, rising a few degrees above normal Tuesday through Friday. Depending on the evolution of the cut-off or closed-low off the East Coast, rainfall projections through all of next week are fairly dry, with below normal PWATs persisting over the region. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front is quickly moving through the area this morning and should be through all sites by the start of the forecast. Winds will have shifted to westerly or west-northwesterly, gusting between 20-30 knots. In addition, CIGs will have returned to low-end MVFR thresholds. After the front passes, wind gusts should be slightly lower throughout the day, in the 20-25 knot range. Period of light rain are also anticipated today, and there may be some MVFR VIS depending on the intensity.A secondary cold front moves in from the north late in the forecast, with another wind shift from west-northwest to north-northwest to north. Renewed wind gusts in 25-30 knot range are expected between 00Z and 12Z. The potential for widespread MVFR CIGs begins to decrease as drier air moves in from the north with most sites seeing VFR conditions by the end of the forecast. OUTLOOK...Lingering MVFR CIGs are possible into Saturday morning for central Ohio. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGinnis AVIATION...McGinnis  579 FXUS63 KTOP 161049 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 549 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A blustery and much cooler day is in store for today. - There is increasing confidence in frost with potential freeze conditions late tonight into Saturday morning. Freeze Watch remains in effect across northern portions of the area with a Frost Advisory issued elsewhere. - Temperatures warm back up into next week with low rain chances returning late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The upper air pattern early this morning shows a trough axis extending from Ontario through the Upper Midwest into KS, a ridge pushing into the PNW, and a weaker low over SoCal and the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. At the surface, low pressure has moved into the Great Lakes region with its cold front extending into the Lower MS River Valley, while high pressure dominates the western half of the CONUS. This puts us firmly within CAA as northwest winds remain breezy. Winds will increase during the daytime hours today as mixing commences, gusting 30-40mph at times while sustained at 15-25mph. Stratus clouds can be seen upstream on satellite with some wrap- around low-level moisture behind the departing system, so between that and the colder air mass, highs are only forecast to top out in the low to mid 50s today. Skies should clear out mid to late afternoon and winds should diminish by sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes and mixing subsides. With the sfc high moving directly overhead tonight into Saturday morning, this sets the stage for a good radiational cooling scenario. NBM morning lows sit around the 25th percentile of all guidance, which seems reasonable for this setup. Looking at the range of models, still think that the area for the going Freeze Watch pretty well captures where temperatures have at least a 50% chance of reaching or falling just below freezing. In collaborating with neighboring offices, opted to leave the watch in place for now and issue the Frost Advisory elsewhere as those areas are likely to fall to the low to mid 30s. The colder temperatures look short-lived with a warming trend taking shape the rest of the weekend into next week. The sfc high moves east Saturday afternoon with the upper ridge moving in as the low to our southwest stays cut off. This favors a return to southwest flow in the low levels and eventually aloft, helping temperatures to warm to the upper 50s Saturday and eventually the 60s and 70s early next week. By Wednesday and Thursday, the upper pattern becomes more amplified with a deepening trough on the Pacific coast and the ridge strengthening its hold over the Southern and Central Plains. Some low 80s return to the forecast by that point. Dry weather dominates most of next week with low rain chances returning late Thursday into Friday as the western trough approaches. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR stratus can be seen upstream in eastern Nebraska and expect that to arrive to TAF sites later this morning, most likely around 15z. This should move east after a few hours with some VFR cloud cover until skies clear completely by this evening. NW winds look breezy most of the day with gusts near 30 kts, then becoming light after sunset and nearly calm overnight. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ008- KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ026-KSZ037- KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Picha  810 FXUS61 KGYX 161056 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 656 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered temps for today with rain moving into a chilly air mass. Cold air damming should hang pretty tough even with a passive dam. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Periods of rain today with a brief thunderstorm possible in New Hampshire this afternoon. 2. A seasonably cold airmass arrives to start the weekend, with wintry conditions across the higher terrain. 3. Mild and dry conditions look to persist from Sunday through much of next week as high pressure dominates over the Northeast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure is set to quickly track through the St. Lawrence Valley this afternoon. This will spread rain across the forecast area early this morning. The best overlap of forcing and moisture is on the front-end, and guidance has most QPF falling between 8am and 2pm. The quick moving low will remain flat and progressive, keeping a slot of dry air in between the warm front in the morning, and the cold front mid to late afternoon. Thus it is likely the more steady rain is focused through the morning, with showery characteristics for the afternoon. Flooding is not anticipated based on forecast amounts, but could see some instances of nuisance/poor drainage flooding where leaves may hinder drain performance. As the warm front lifts through the area, could see some fog develop amid scattered showers through mid afternoon. The final act of the day will be the cold front's arrival, potentially with some low-topped convection into SW NH. MUCAPE values, around 200 j/kg are much less than evening lightning on Tuesday. Thunder may be limited here, but the vertical mixing will likely promote a rapid wind shift with sudden gusts as the front pushes east. The front's passage will mark the beginning of NW winds overnight and into Saturday, ushering in cooler temperatures and wind chill. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As the aforementioned low pressure system departs northeast, broad high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The pressure gradient between these two systems will tighten to produce gusty NW winds Friday night through the day Saturday. There has been some slackening of the forecast gradient the last few forecasts, and this has resulted in wind forecasts not as strong as early week. However, the wind combined with the cooler airmass will certainly leave an impact on the area. Daytime highs will struggle to make it out of the 40s along the immediate coast Saturday, with widespread 30s and 40s across the mountains and foothills/interior. With frequent gusts 25 to 35 mph, resultant wind chill values may reside in the 30s across most of the area. The effect is more pronounced for the higher terrain, where winter conditions, including snow, are expected with greater wind and wind chill magnitude. Wind gusts over 100 mph are expected on Mount Washington on Saturday. Any hikers or those above 2500ft should plan for wintertime conditions this weekend. The coldest night of the season arrives Saturday night with widespread lows in the 20s. Lows below freezing are expected to the coastline across the region. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure crests over the region on Sunday and looks to stay nosed in through at least the daylight hours of next Thursday. This will bring an extended period of mild daytime temperatures, and likely some pretty chilly nights due to radiational cooling, as well as dry weather. Sunday will be the transition day with high temperatures in the low to mid-50s with mostly clear skies, but after a raw Saturday this will probably feel comfortable. Afterwards, most days should feature abundant sunshine with high temperatures inthe upper 50s and 60s. Periods of clouds are possible with subtle troughing aloft, but the midlevel airmass looks very dry which will preclude any threat for precipitation. Low temperatures look to be generally around normal being in the upper 20s to mid-30s north to south, but of course any night where strong radiational cooling takes place, can end up quite cold. Looking at long range ensembles 850-700 mb temperatures stay right around the 0 C mark through this stretch so certainly some cold nights could come to fruition, but nothing crazy. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through tonight...Rain moves into the area this morning with conditions quickly dropping from VFR to low MVFR or IFR. CIGs remain there thru the late afternoon or early evening when a cold front will mix out the low cloud cover. A mix of MVFR and VFR CIGs continue thru the overnight as northwesterly winds increase. Outlook... Saturday...MVFR/IFR cigs could remain for HIE through the morning with -SHRASN, otherwise VFR expected. The most notable feature for the day will be NW gusts 25 to 30 kts, slackening in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday...High pressure brings an extended period of VFR conditions with no sig wx. Wind will tend to follow typical diurnal patterns. && .MARINE... Southerly winds build today as low pressure passes inland up the St. Lawrence Valley. These winds then become SW and then NW overnight, increasing towards Gale force on the outer waters. Winds and seas will gradually decrease Saturday evening. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sunday through much of next week as high pressure settles over the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ150>154. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baron/Cornwell/Legro AVIATION...Legro  887 FXUS64 KEWX 161058 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 558 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 552 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong cold front moves through the area through daybreak. Rain chances diminish through the overnight hours and end this morning. - Wind Advisory for all of South Central Texas today with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts between 40-50 mph. - Cooler air ushers into the area and remains through the weekend, then a warming trend begins. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front is moving across the area with its impact first seen in the northwest portion of the forecast area and spreading south to southeast through daybreak. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms continue across the Edwards Plateau early this morning where some pockets of heavy rainfall have been observed. Drier and windy conditions behind the front will erode this activity through the morning. A Flood Watch remains in effect at the time of this AFD issuance but could be cancelled a few hours early. Post frontal conditions will be evident by a gusty north wind ushering in cooler air. Northerly wind from 20-30 mph with gusts to 40-50 mph are expected to continue into the early evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 7pm to account for these gusty winds. Cloudy morning skies begin to break up slightly in the afternoon with high temperatures today from the low 60s to low 70s. Windy conditions will make it feel even cooler. Wind eases in the west but remains gusty from the Hill Country eastward overnight through Saturday morning. During this time, forecast wind speeds will be more 15-25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph which coincides with the expiration of the Wind Advisory. Lows overnight cool into the low to mid 40s over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country into the mid 40s to low 50s elsewhere. Breezy wind eases through the day on Saturday. Less clouds are expected this day with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The coolest temperatures of the period are forecast Saturday night into Sunday morning lows from the low and mid 40s over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to the mid 40s to around 50 degrees elsewhere. Light wind and mild temperatures from the middle 60s to middle 70s are expected Sunday, then a warming trend returns for the week with daily highs and lows creeping back to above normal levels by Wednesday. Dry conditions continue with possibly some low rain chances returning at the very end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Light showers over the region continue to be aligned over the coastal plains region along and behind a cold front. Another batch of showers is also noted farther northwest into the southern Edwards Plateau to near KDRT. We will keep a mention of RA in the forecast for DRT for the next couple of hours, but will not mention for the I-35 sites given radar trends. Some brief MVFR cigs are still expected this morning and only minor adjustments have been made based on recent observational trends. Otherwise, gusty north winds will persist through today, with winds remaining gusty well into the evening hours for most TAF sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 50 68 48 / 20 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 49 68 45 / 20 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 50 68 46 / 20 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 65 46 65 44 / 20 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 49 66 47 /60 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 48 67 44 / 20 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 70 49 69 46 / 20 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 49 69 46 / 20 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 51 70 47 / 20 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 50 68 49 / 20 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 72 52 69 49 / 20 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173-183>194- 202>209-217>225-228. && $$ SHORT TERM...Platt LONG TERM....Platt AVIATION...Platt  540 FXUS61 KBUF 161020 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 620 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain and gusty winds through this evening. 2) Much colder tonight through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. 3) An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday and lasts most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain and gusty winds through this evening. A sharp mid level trough will advance east across the Great Lakes today through tonight. An associated surface low will steadily deepen through the period as it moves through southern Ontario province today, then northeast down the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight to the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. This system has captured a plume of deep moisture, with PWAT values briefly rising to around 1.75" in the warm sector this morning. A period of strong isentropic upglide and moisture transport will move northeast across the eastern Great Lakes early this morning as a warm front races northeast across the area. Ascent across the warm front will be enhanced by a 55+ knot low level jet, and continue to support a few periods of rain. The cold front will quickly follow, moving southeast across the area this afternoon and bringing another period of low level convergence and additional showers. DPVA ahead of the mid level trough and strong right entrance region jet dynamics will lag behind the passage of the cold front, allowing for periods of light rain to continue this afternoon and evening even after the surface cold front passes by. Elevated instability may support a few isolated weak thunderstorms this morning. A few more scattered thunderstorms may develop along the cold front late morning through early afternoon from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes along the advancing cold front as modest surface based instability develops. If these storms materialize they may produce gusty winds, with a better risk of severe thunderstorms well southeast of our area where greater instability will develop. Rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area, generally ranging from 0.25" to 1.0". Terrain will play an important role given the strong boundary layer flow, with downslope areas of the Lake Erie shore and Genesee Valley likely on the low end of the range, while higher terrain is more likely to be on the higher end of the range from upslope enhancement. There may be a few small areas that exceed 1.0" if embedded convection develops. Finally, it will be quite windy today as a strong 55+ knot low level jet propagates across the eastern Great Lakes. A brief window of downslope winds will continue early this morning along the Lake Erie shore, and later this morning north of the Tug Hill Plateau. The setup for downslope winds is not ideal, with a weak inversion and SSW flow not directly perpendicular to the terrain barriers. Given the marginal setup, expect wind gusts of up to 40 mph in downslope areas this morning, and 25 to 35 mph elsewhere. A brief period of stronger winds will also develop northeast of Lake Erie late morning through mid afternoon as the cold front crosses the area. Once again this setup it not ideal, with most of the strong winds aloft in the warm sector where lapse rates are poor. Boundary layer winds will quickly drop off later this afternoon following the cold frontal passage when lapse rates steepen. Expect peak gusts of up to 40 mph northeast of Lake Erie today. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much colder tonight through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. Strong cold advection will develop tonight in the wake of the departing low, with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the -5C to -8C range by Saturday morning. The cold air aloft will support increasing lake induced instability overnight with a brief lake response, but short NNW fetch and a rapidly drying synoptic scale airmass will keep lake effect muted and brief. Lake effect and upslope rain showers will develop southeast of the lakes tonight, with a few wet snowflakes possibly mixing in very late tonight through early Saturday morning before the lake effect showers quickly end by late morning. The best chance of a few snowflakes will be across higher terrain, but no accumulation is expected. The coldest airmass of the fall season so far will arrive for Saturday, with highs only in the 40s areawide, and even upper 30s across the highest terrain despite some afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will drop back into the lower 30s on the lake plains and 20s well inland Saturday night, with frost/freeze conditions likely. KEY MESSAGE 3...An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday and lasts most of next week. High pressure will drift from the Ohio Valley to southern New England Sunday, with southwesterly return flow quickly removing the brief shot of colder air. Temperatures will rebound into the 55 to 60 degree range by afternoon following the cold start. A strong ridge surface and aloft will then take up residence early next week across much of the central and eastern CONUS, while a slow moving cutoff low remains parked off the Carolina coast much of the week. This pattern will support dry weather most, or even all of next week with abundant sunshine and temperatures a little above average. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will move through southern Ontario province today, supporting periods of rain and gusty winds. A warm front will race northeast cross the eastern Great Lakes this morning, followed by a cold front this afternoon with each supporting periods of light to moderate rain. Areas of moderate rain will bring some reduction in VSBY, with CIGS generally running MVFR for lower elevations and IFR across higher terrain and the North Country today. Weak instability may support a few isolated thunderstorms as well, especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes this morning through early afternoon. Gusty SSW winds will continue this morning, then steadily veer to the west and northwest today with the approach and passage of the cold front. Gusts will run in the 20 to 30 knot range areawide, and up to 35 knots near Lake Erie and on the north slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau. Tonight, much colder air will pour into the eastern Great Lakes. Strong lake induced instability will develop with cold air aloft, although a rapidly drying airmass will keep the lake response muted and brief. Lake effect clouds will produce areas of MVFR CIGS overnight, with scattered showers southeast of the lakes and across higher terrain from lake effect and upslope. It will become cold enough to allow some wet snowflakes to mix in very late tonight, mainly across higher terrain. Outlook... Saturday...Areas of MVFR CIGS and scattered rain/wet snow showers early, improving to VFR. Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Steadily deepening low pressure will pass just north of the lower Great Lakes today, then move down the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight to the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. A trailing cold front will cross the lakes today, with southerly winds this morning quickly veering to the west and northwest this afternoon with the approach and passage of the cold front. Sustained winds will increase into the 20 to 30 knot range (with higher gusts) on both lakes today and remain elevated through Saturday morning before quickly diminishing Saturday afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. High end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Saturday morning on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ043- 044. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock  502 FXUS63 KIND 161017 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 617 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong post-frontal northwest winds will gust between 30 and 40 mph Friday morning and afternoon - Widespread frost likely late Saturday night and Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)... Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current Weather through Friday: The Ohio Valley will be going through a significant pattern change over the next 24 hours as a mature low pressure system continues to push eastward within an amplified positively tilted upper level trough. The orientation of this trough created a less aligned phasing of the mid to lower level low of which has created a multitude of weaker boundaries out ahead of the primary cold front and a slower arrival of polar air. One of these confluence boundaries was the initiation point for a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. As of 04Z, this line has weekend significantly with only scattered showers remaining over far E/SE Indiana. Another area of low level confluence can be observed over NW Indiana and E Illinois, of which will be the source for additional showers and isolated weak thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow morning. Lapse rates within this sector of the low are weak in the mid levels of which should keep convective tops capped below 15kft and the thunder threat very isolated. The surface low will continue to mature overnight within strong upper level jet dynamics. In return, CAA will continue to increase pushing the cold front quickly E/SE passing through central Indiana between 09-13Z. A few showers will be possible along the frontal passage, but any additional QPF should be less than 0.1". For the remainder of the day, central Indiana will be within a much cooler airmass with dew points in the 40s and high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Modest lapse rates up to 850mb will likely lead to efficient PBL mixing in the afternoon with gusts upwards of 40 MPH. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out as saturation at the top of the PBL remains coincided with the previously mentioned steep low level lapse rates; that said, any QPF will be minimal. As the late afternoon and evening approaches, mean low level winds back towards 330-360 degrees, of which provides an efficient fetch across Lake Michigan. While a majority of any lake effect rain showers will likely remain north of central Indiana, isolated to scattered showers over NW portions of the area will remain possible from 21- 01Z. Friday Night through Sunday Morning: The remainder of the forecast period will become rather stagnant as the upper low associated with today's trough passage will detach from the flow and become cutoff over the Eastern Coast. This in combination with a weak split flow upper jet will keep low level conditions fairly similar through the weekend and into next week. While the bulk of the forecast will remain similar, slight fluctuations in surface pressure over the next 5-7 days will still lead to slightly different temperatures and wind speed/direction over the forecast period. Continued CAA Friday night will lead to cold morning lows Saturday morning, but there is some uncertainty on the extent of any frost given consistent 6+ MPH surface winds and marginal temperatures around 36-38 degrees. Greatest chances will be within sheltered areas in NE portions of central Indiana, but likelihood of occurrence is currently below 50%. The aforementioned strong CAA will lead to height rises beneath 850mb and therefor building high pressure Friday night through most of Saturday. The centroid of this surface high is expected to overlap with the core of the mid level polar airmass late Saturday though Saturday night leading to our coldest temperatures of the season. Frost looks definite for most of central Indiana on Sunday morning, but there is still some significant uncertainty in below freezing temperatures. Much of this will depend on the timing of the surface high passage along with how it faces with the 850mb temperatures. Ensemble probabilities indicate greater around a 50% chance for NE/E portions of the area, which will be the focus for any freeze headlines in later updates. Remainder of Sunday through Wednesday: The anticyclone will drift eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, allowing insolation to rebound highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows Sunday night will remain cool, in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with patchy frost confined to far eastern rural valleys before low-level winds back to the south. For Monday through Wednesday, the synoptic pattern transitions as upper-level ridging builds over the eastern states and a deep trough carves out over the western CONUS. Steady south-southwesterly return flow will drive a significant warm air advection regime across the Ohio Valley. 850 mb temperatures will moderate to +10C to +13C, pushing daytime highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s by early next week. Overnight lows will moderate into the upper 40s to mid-50s. Long range guidance generally supports quiet weather conditions persisting through the middle of next week as surface high pressure remains in control. Return flow should continue to provide a gradual moderation in temperatures. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 617 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings until 19Z - Wind gusts to 30kt through 02Z - Periodic rain showers with minimal VIS impacts. Discussion: Cold air advection behind the cold front will maintain low level moisture leading to MVFR cigs across Central Indiana through 19Z until diurnal heating aids in lifting ceilings in the afternoon. Winds will be brisk following the frontal passage, sustained between 12-15kt with gusts nearing 30kt throughout the day. Periodic showers will be possible this morning at the southern 3 sites, and then again this afternoon at KLAF. VIS restriction are expected to be minimal. Friday night, winds will shift towards northerly with gusts waning. Isolated showers will be possible at KLAF. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Updike DISCUSSION...Updike  914 FXUS65 KTWC 161031 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 331 AM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain below normal through this weekend. A strong surface high pressure area moving into the area will bring strong to very strong east to southeast winds today into Saturday. These winds are expected to be especially strong and potentially damaging, and will likely be impactful to those with outdoor plans today and Saturday. There is also a 20-50 percent chance of rain Saturday into next week. && .DISCUSSION...Gusty east winds have been cranking up since late last night with some of the highest gusts between 55 and 75 mph as of 230 am. VAD wind profiles on Tucson radar (KEMX) showed E-SE winds up to 50 kts between 6k and 8k feet. Surface pressure difference across the area was around 12 mbs. Early morning satellite imagery was showing brief periods of lenticular cloud development over some of the mountains. Strongest winds are expected later this morning as the gradient tightens between upper low off the northern Baja coast and the 1040 to 1043 mb surface high across the Colorado front range. High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory remain in effect for today into Saturday. The above mentioned upper low will pull in remnant moisture from decaying tropical storm Simon, which was south of Cabo this morning, over the next 24 hours. This upper low will then lift and open up across Arizona Sunday and Monday and bring a chance of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, to SE AZ. A slow moving Pacific upper level trof will keep unsettled conditions Tuesday into early next week with daily chances of showers (20-50 percent) each day. Daily high temperatures will remain below normal for much of the next 7 days. && .AVIATION... Valid through 17/12Z. Skies will be SKC for the majority of the fcst pd with FEW-SCT clouds 6k-10k from KTUS-KOLS W aft 16/21Z. SFC winds ELY/SELY 25-40 kts with gusts 45-60 kts. This will be a mountain-wave pattern, with very strong descending winds occuring on the leeward side of the higher terrain. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures will remain below normal through this weekend. A strong surface high pressure area will move into Southeast Arizona from the east this evening resulting in strong to very strong east to southeast winds today into Saturday. These winds are expected to be especially strong and potentially damaging. Locations on the lee-side of the higher terrain, terrain gaps, and east-to-west oriented valleys will be susceptible to the strongest winds this morning. For these areas expect speeds 35-45 mph with gusts 55-75 mph this morning into the evening, then 25-35 mph with gusts 50-60 mph Friday night into Saturday. Minimum relative humidity remains above 25-40 percent through the weekend. There will also be a 20-50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for AZZ503>509- 511>514. Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST Saturday for AZZ502-515. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM MST Saturday for AZZ503>509- 511>514. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  887 FXUS63 KGRR 161030 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 630 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wet, windy, and colder today; Frost tonight - Tranquil weather for Sat and beyond with moderating temperatures && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Wet, windy, and colder today; Frost tonight No surprises thus far with the ongoing system over the area this morning. The main batch of rain showers came through earlier with the nose of the strong low level jet passing through. This has exited east, and the initial cold front has just about cleared the area to the east as of 230 am. Plenty of forcing remains and continues to bring showers to the area as the large northern stream trough is now approaching with large scale upper divergence ahead of it moving over the area. In addition, the RRQ of a 140 knot upper jet will aid in the rain development this morning. We continue to watch the secondary front/cold conveyor belt that is expected to drop through from mid morning into the early afternoon hours. This will bring more showers to the area, highly concentrated near the lakeshore where cold enough low level air and cyclonic flow/cold air aloft moves in. We continue to see good signs that a few storms will be possible close to the lakeshore with this feature due to the strong instability over the lake feeding this. The flow will quickly shift to become more from the NNE behind this front. We will see the gusty winds behind this, which look to peak around 40 mph for a brief time. No wind advisory looks to be needed at this time. Even along the lakeshore where it will be slightly offshore. We will see a few pop up rain showers continue to be possible inland, but nothing looks to be organized. Once we lose the diurnal boost of the instability, the threat for showers will drop significantly or end. The upper cyclonic flow will exit the area after 00z, allowing ridging to build in through the night. Winds will be up in the evening, but will settle down quite a bit overnight. We could decouple well at that time, and see a fair amount of frost for much of the interior. A frost advisory may be needed, and can be issued by the day shift. - Tranquil weather for Sat and beyond with moderating temperatures Confidence continues to increase that we will see an extended period of tranquil weather from Saturday through the upcoming week, and likely beyond. The increased confidence comes as we see the pattern expected to be even more amplified than previously thought, and the favorable weather under the upper ridge expected to be over our region. The upper trough/low to our west is expected to close off now and slow up in trying to move east. This is likely at least partially due to the closed low off of the east coast and upper ridge slowing down the progression of the upper air flow over the CONUS. The majority of the time, pops will be near zero with strong subsidence overhead. There is a period on Thursday and Friday where the ridge is temporarily flattened by energy over Canada. These short waves will have no decent moisture to advect in, and little to no moisture to start with. Temperatures will start out cool on Saturday in the 50s with the cool flow from Canada remaining in place immediately behind the Friday system. We will see heights build, and a return flow advect warmer air gradually over the area. We are likely to see temperatures approach 70 by mid week, and stay mild through the end of the week, with just a slight cool down with the ridge flattened briefly. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 630 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 We are seeing scattered showers around the terminals at the beginning of this forecast period. Conditions are mainly MVFR with ceilings around 1500-2500 ft agl. We expect these conditions to generally continue for a few hours, until the next front drops through. This will enhance the showers, and even possibly cause a few storms at KMKG given the instability over the lake. This will be a 2-3 hr window. Behind this will be the strongest of the winds from the north that will continue until sunset. The MVFR conditions will improve to VFR later as the showers will push offshore as the wind becomes from the NNE this evening. Wind gusts will steadily drop off this evening. Skies are likely to clear overnight given the northerly wind. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Everything looks to be on track with regards to headlines this morning, so no changes are necessary at this time. We have solid Small Craft Advisory conditions ongoing behind the initial front that passed through around midnight. The Gales are expected to arrive by noon with a secondary front dropping through that will bring a nice cold surge with it. Solid Gales remain expected, with a small chance of a brief Storm Force wind gust. Not enough to need a Storm Warning. Winds will steadily diminish then this evening as we see a sfc ridge axis pass through. This will be short lived as another strong area of gradient winds drops down over the area late Saturday through most of Sunday. Those winds and waves will require another Small Craft Advisory to be issued. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...NJJ  001 FXUS63 KLMK 161034 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 634 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * A cold front pushes through our area early this morning, and will bring breezy winds, falling temperatures, and scattered light rain showers as it passes. * Cool temperatures linger throughout the weekend, with a chance for frost Sunday morning. * After today's light rain, dry weather is expected over the weekend and next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ===== Cold Front Passage Today ===== An upper level trough is situated over the central US this morning, and will be the driving force for a sfc low over the Great Lakes to eventually bring a cold front through our area later this morning. Early on, cloud cover is on the increase ahead of this boundary, which is expected to bring low stratus over the area by sunrise and through the morning hours. Temps have been holding steady this morning so far, with readings hovering in the mid-70s since last evening. However, SPC mesoanalysis shows the sfc boundary has passed through the St. Louis area, with KBLV showing a nearly 20F temperature drop in just 3 hours, showcasing the strong CAA following just behind this front this morning. Today will feature some interesting weather as the front passes through later on this morning. First, expect temps to drop throughout the day as CAA regime takes over with FROPA. Our highest temps of the day likely are occurring early this morning within the warmer pre- frontal airmass. Second, guidance supports this FROPA to feature an anafront, with the majority of precip occurring after the boundary pushes through. Mid-level vorticity max lags behind with the trough axis, displacing the better forcing aloft later this morning. Additionally, low level moisture will outrun the better forcing, leading to mainly light rain showers this morning, and lingering eats of I-65 this afternoon. Total QPF is expected to be less than 0.10" for most today. Our probabilistic precip forecast has a general 30% chance of exceeding 0.1" today, and less than a 15% of exceeding 0.25". Third, winds will become quite breezy today due to the compact sfc pressure gradient with the frontal passage. NW wind gusts up to 25-30 mph will be possible, and will also boost the CAA infiltration. ===== Cooler Fall Air Finally Arrives This Weekend ===== With the help of the FROPA today, we'll finally break the hold that the above normal temperatures had on our region and start feeling some seasonable temperatures by the weekend. Upper ridging and a large dome of high pressure will expand across the central US, and with our cooler post-frontal airmass in place, much cooler temps are expected over the weekend and into next week. High pressure will keep us dry over the next several days as well. Expect highs on Saturday in the 50s, though a touch warmer on Sunday with temps peaking into the 60s. The main feature to keep tabs on over the weekend will be the high potential for frost Sunday morning with morning lows forecast down into the 30s. No Frost Advisory yet with this forecast package, but confidence seems high enough that we'll eventually need one sometime before Saturday night. Temperatures will gradually climb back into the low 70s by late next week. There are no precip chances through next week as sfc high pressure keeps a strong hold over a large portion of the country. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 633 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front is currently passing through the area at the start of the TAF period, and now seeing impacts to terminals as cigs lower to MVFR. Scattered light rain will be possible behind the front today, but the bigger impact will be the gusty NW winds, with gusts up to 25kts possible today. We should see cigs gradually improve to VFR later this afternoon, but a second round of MVFR low stratus is forecast for tonight as well. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJP AVIATION...CJP  213 FXUS63 KDVN 161040 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 540 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning and expanded slightly to the south and east. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area tonight. Frost is be possible Saturday night but not as widespread. - Winds gusting up to 45 mph can be expected during the daylight hours Friday. The probability of wind headlines being needed is 30-35%. - A warm-up next week will send temperatures back above normal for late October. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Freeze warnings and frost advisories have been issued for late Friday night into Saturday morning. Winds will gust up to 45 mph during the daylight hours Friday as the trop fold and wind max move through the area. Interestingly, the very short range models do not push the 45+ mph gusts into the area. Cloud cover will limit the amount of deep mixing but I would not be surprised if some localized gusts to 50 mph occur. Trends with the winds will need to be watched today for a possible wind headline. The current probabilities of a wind headline is 30-35 percent. Tonight into Saturday morning the key message is the cold temperatures. Areas roughly north of a Sterling, IL to Fairfield, IA line have at least a 50 percent probability of seeing temperatures around freezing. If the current negative delta trend on lows tonight continues, the freeze warning may need to be expanded further to the south and east. Frost is a given with winds dropping to 5 mph or less after midnight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Saturday night through Thursday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence on temperatures trending above normal. Saturday night into Sunday will be another chilly night with frost again possible but not as widespread as Friday night into Saturday. Headlines for frost may be needed. Starting Sunday and continuing through the week a general warm-up will be seen with temperatures trending above normal for late October. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A positively tilted upper trough to move through eastern IA and northwest IL this morning, with low MVFR stratus moving over the terminals from northwest to southeast. Some brief IFR cigs may occur at DBQ. Isolated to scattered instability showers are possible today, with a roughly 3-hr window at any terminal for brief MVFR vsbys. Confidence in location too low to include prevailing and thus have kept PROB30 wording with this issuance. A strengthening pressure gradient combined with deep mixing to bring strong northwest winds gusting between 25 and 35kts today, with a low probability (<10%) of higher gusts. 37kts this afternoon. Winds to decrease under 10kts after sunset with decreasing clouds. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076-077-087. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ078-088- 089-098-099. IL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ016>018- 024>026-034-035. MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ009-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Gross  150 FXUS61 KALY 161039 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 639 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk slightly northward to encompass the Mohawk Valley, all of the Capital Region and most of southern VT. The Slight Risk area has been slightly expanded north to include portions of Greene/Columbia counties. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, showers, and a few thunderstorms to the region today. Continued gusty and unseasonably chilly conditions are expected tonight into Saturday. A coating of snow is possible in the high terrain late tonight into Saturday morning. 2) Dry weather with temperatures moderating to near seasonable levels Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong cold front will approach from the west today as low pressure tracks into the St. Lawrence River Valley. For early this morning, a warm front will approach from the southwest with bands of rain passing through ahead of the front at the leading edge of a strengthening low level jet. Strong forcing and some elevated instability will allow for some locally heavy downpours and rumbles of thunder to occur toward and shortly after daybreak, especially across the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks, Capital/Saratoga and Lake George Region into southern VT. Rainfall rates of 0.25-0.50"/hour could lead to some ponding of water in poor drainage areas for the morning commute in these areas. As the low level jet translates overhead around and shortly after daybreak, strong south to southeast winds will be possible across portions of the Capital Region and within some north/south oriented valleys. Latest REFs suggest some gusts of 30-40 mph could occur in these areas through mid morning before decreasing as the core of the low level jet passes by and weakens. As the cold front approaches from the west during the afternoon hours, some surface-based destabilization should occur, especially if some breaks of sun can develop. Latest HREFs and REFs suggest SB CAPES of 100-250 J/kg developing for areas mainly south of I-90. Strengthening mid level winds will allow 0-6 km shear to increase to 50-60 KT amid this instability, parallel to the incoming front. This suggests the possibility of a low topped line of showers/thunderstorms to develop which could produce a few instances of damaging wind gusts. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms northward, now encompassing much of the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and southern VT, with the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) expanding just slightly north into portions of Greene/Columbia counties. Even in the absence of convection, as the front passes through, some brief wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible this evening. In the wake of the front, blustery conditions will develop tonight and continue into Saturday with northwest winds gusting 25-35 mph, perhaps a bit stronger Saturday morning as mixing deepens. Some lingering moisture in the wake of the front, partially from Lake Effect, will allow for some snow showers across higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT late tonight into Saturday morning, where some coatings to less than one half inch of snow accumulation will be possible. A few flurries/sprinkles could even occur across the eastern Catskills, the Berkshires, and at lower elevations such as the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region Saturday morning. High temperatures Saturday should only reach the 30s to lower 40s across higher elevations, with mainly 40s for valley regions. Combined with brisk winds, wind chill temperatures ("feels-like" temperatures) will be in the 20s/lower 30s for higher terrain, and 30s in valleys through much of theday. KEY MESSAGE 2... After an unseasonably cold morning Sunday with low temps mainly in the 20s, temperatures should moderate into the 50s for most areas by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to moderate to seasonable levels early next week with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s in valleys. Generally dry conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z/Saturday...MVFR/IFR conditions through mid morning with periods of rain, some moderate to heavy in intensity. Mainly MVFR Cigs and VFR Vsbys are then expected later this morning through mid afternoon. A line of downpours along a cold front is anticipated to move through sometime between 19Z-24Z/Friday. Will mention PROB30 for IFR conditions associated with +SHRA at KALB/KGFL/KPSF, but due to some instability will mention +TSRA at KPOU. Cigs should generally vary between 3500-5000 FT AGL in the wake of the cold front for tonight. However, upslope winds may produce occasional MVFR Cigs at KPSF, where some sprinkles/flurries will also be possible. Will continue to mention low level wind shear at all sites through early afternoon, as a southerly jet of 40-45 kt at 2000 ft AGL moves overhead with sustained surface winds generally less than 15-20 kt. The LLWS should dissipate by mid to late afternoon. Surface winds will be south-southeast at 8-15 kt most of today with gusts of 20-32 kt developing at KALB/KPSF. Winds will then shift into the west, then northwest late this afternoon with speeds of 8-15 KT and gusts of 20-30 KT. These winds should then continue overnight although there could be some periods where gusts subside at times at KGFL and KPOU. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24/35 AVIATION...24/07  023 FXUS62 KCAE 161035 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 635 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Near-record warmth for one more day. - 2. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Near-record warmth for one more day. Upper ridging lingers over the Southeast for one more day today before a strong cold front moves in. This will keep near record highs this afternoon with temps maxing out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. A significant cool-down is on the way this weekend, and will be very noticeable! Key Message 2: A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. Our first true cold front of the season is on track for this weekend. Guidance has slowed the front down slightly on Friday night over the last couple of days; even still, it is forecast to pass through the area between Friday night and Saturday morning. Cooler air is forecast to rush into the area behind it, with strong gusty winds expected as well. The trough forcing all of this has trended much sharper over the last several days, with guidance now showing some form of the trough cutting off to our east by Saturday night or Sunday. Models remain a bit all over the place still with the evolution and eventual placement of the cutoff low. Regardless, some showers are likely early on Saturday as the front clears, moisture lags a bit behind, and intense synoptic lift allows for some rain to develop. Winds are forecast to be quite breezy on Saturday as well. Latest time/height plots suggest that wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible during the day as a cool and dry airmass rapidly advects into the area. We will likely need a Lake wind Advisory and bordering on Wind Advisory Criteria, especially if the coastal low develops a bit earlier and closer to the Carolinas. Sunday will be quite chilly with temps in the low 60s and overnight lows in the 40s. From there, a modest warm up closer to normal is expected into next week. Given the presence of northeasterly flow and strong high pressure, cool temps and dry air is expected deep into next week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions expected outside of some fog-stratus at typical locations. Front arrives late in the period. Some morning fog-stratus has developed in localized spots this morning with OGB the main impact for TAF sites. This will likely continue through 13z with other sites possibly seeing some mifg issues around sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions likely after 13z. A strong cold front will approach the region on towards the end of the TAF period but an increased pressure gradient will result in southwesterly winds increasing to around 10 knots after 15z with some higher gusts around 17 knots likely by afternoon preceding the front. Winds will shift around 06z as this front moves through with gusty winds continuing overnight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...As the front moves through, some morning showers possible Saturday along with gusty winds continuing for much of the weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ND AVIATION...42  692 FXPQ50 PGUM 161053 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 853 PM ChST Fri Oct 16 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the Marianas. Tropical Storm Champi, currently east of the Marianas, continues its trek toward the islands. && .Discussion... The big story, TS Champi. Champi continues to slowly strengthen east of Guam as it moves west. The latest forecast track brings Champi over northern Guam Sunday morning, with tropical storm force winds arriving before midnight Saturday. Therefore, a Typhoon Warning was issued for Guam and Rota, with a Tropical Storm Warning issued for Tinian and Saipan, with a Typhoon Watch continuing in case Champi makes a turn to the north. The forecast for tonight and Saturday maintains the current drier pattern. However, that will change drastically as Champi approaches. Tropical storm force winds, increasing heavy showers and thunderstorms will move into the region Saturday evening. By Sunday morning, we can expect at least category 2 typhoon force winds at Guam, category 1 at Rota and strong tropical storm winds at Tinian and Saipan. Winds and convection will continue over the islands through Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possibly ending Sunday night, after midnight. After Champi exits the region, a dry pattern looks to move into the region around Monday and continuing through the end of the week. Residents of the Marianas should make sure that they are prepared for typhoon force sustained winds of up to 105 mph. Stay safe and follow our forecasts for any updates as they occur. && .Marine... Marine and surf conditions will deteriorate rapidly, beginning Saturday evening as TS Champi approaches. A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Guam and Rota waters, with a Tropical Storm Warning now in effect and Typhoon Watch remaining in effect for Tinian and Saipan. Combined seas will remain at or below 7 feet through Saturday morning, then begin to build as a large east swell from Champi enters the waters. As Champi moves through the waters, seas could reach as high as 35 feet near the center of Champi, depending on how much Champi strengthens. Seas will be lowest for Tinian and Saipan waters, but still reach around 19 feet as Champi moves through. The large seas produced by Champi are expected to produce dangerous/deadly surf and rip currents, as well as coastal flooding, with inundation of 5 feet or more near the eye of Champi, and as high as 1 to 3 feet at Tinian and Saipan. Surf could reach as high as 26 feet at Guam and 19 feet at Tinian and Saipan. Rota can expect around 20 feet. Seas could remain hazardous through Monday, after Champi departs the region. && .Tropical Systems... As of 700 PM ChST, the center of Tropical Storm Champi (29W) was located near 12N152E, which is about 510 miles east-southeast of Guam. It was moving west at 13 mph, with maximum sustained winds having increased to 60 mph near the center. Champi is expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed through Saturday. This general forecast track will take Champi close to, or over, Guam Sunday morning. Champi is expected to go through a period of rapid intensification over the next 24 hours, becoming a typhoon by Saturday and strengthening further thereafter. Winds and rain will come in rapidly, with winds becoming dangerous and life threatening very soon after onset. Do not let a false sense of normalcy now dictate your actions tomorrow; prepare NOW! For more information, please refer to the bulletins issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN32 PGTW, and by the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam under WMO header WTPQ32 PGUM. && .Eastern Micronesia... Tropical Storm Champi continues to move away from the region, which will allow showers to become isolated at Pohnpei Saturday night. Kosrae will mainly see isolated showers as well through the weekend, before increasing next week. However, at Majuro, the monsoon trough is lingering just to the north, with a another tropical circulation east of the Date Line poised to move into the region early next week. This will keep scattered showers going through the forecast period there. As Champi moves away, winds and seas will slowly decrease. Seas will return to the 4 to 6 foot range at Pohnpei and Kosrae, remaining at these values for Majuro. && .Western Micronesia... The main forecast challenges were maximum wind gusts at Chuuk, and swell direction and height for Yap and Palau as current TS Champi passes north of there. For now, kept wind gusts to 30 knots at Chuuk but mentioned a few higher gusts could occur, but with some uncertainty as to when during the next 24 hours Champi begins its RI (Rapid Intensification) cycle. Therefore a special weather statement remains in place along with a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas. will be elevated Then at Yap, focus was placed on trying to refine swell heights and directions, while introducing them at Palau Tuesday. Otherwise, look for isolated shower coverage at Palau and Yap to continue, becoming isolated at Chuuk by the end of the weekend. Gentle to fresh winds are expected at Chuuk, decreasing as we head into next week, while increasing at Yap during the same time. Palau will remain in the light to gentle range. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for GUZ001. Typhoon Warning for GUZ001. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for GUZ001. High Surf Warning from 5 PM Saturday to 4 AM ChST Monday for GUZ001. MP...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MPZ001>003. Typhoon Warning for MPZ001. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for MPZ001>003. High Surf Warning from 5 PM Saturday to 4 AM ChST Monday for MPZ001>003. Tropical Storm Warning for MPZ002-003. Typhoon Watch for MPZ002-003. Marianas Waters...Typhoon Warning for PMZ151-152. Tropical Storm Warning for PMZ153-154. Typhoon Watch for PMZ153-154. && $$ Marianas: Kleeschulte East/West Micronesia: Doll Tropical: Montvila/Mesa DSS: Mesa  594 FXUS64 KLZK 161050 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 550 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 -Isolated to widely scattered showers possible across the central and north central half of the state through early this morning. -Elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on today over portions of southern to southeast Arkansas. Red Flag Warning has been issued for far southern sections of the area for today. -Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions over portions of northern Arkansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Radar early this morning shows scattered showers across parts of central and north central Arkansas. The showers are associated with the upper shortwave trough moving across the central and northern plain dragging an attendant cold front through the state through this afternoon. Behind the front, cooler and breezy conditions will develop and then persist across the state through at least early this afternoon across the state. Winds will veer from south/southeast ahead of the boundary to north/northwest behind the boundary. Winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common with gusts to 30 mph possible across the state. By this evening, the upper trough will push into the eastern Great Lakes region and cold front will exit the state, with northwest flow becoming established across the state. Model guidance keeps the state within northwest flow through at least the first half of the upcoming work week. The aforementioned trough that is dragging a cold front through the state today, will move to the lower Appalachians region on Saturday. The trough will move to the Carolinas region by Sunday with both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF showing the trough deepening by Saturday night into Sunday. At the same time, high pressure over the Bay of Campeche will expand northward into the western and northwest Gulf coast region Saturday night into Sunday. The cooler and drier air behind the front filtering into the state will lead to morning lows across the state in the 40s across the southern two thirds of the state this weekend, Lows across the northern half will be in the mid to upper 30s on Saturday and Sunday. Some patchy frost in higher terrain areas is not out of the question. High temperatures this weekend will run around 5 degrees below normal for the state through the end of the weekend. As we head into the new work week, high pressure will continue to expand northward into the central Plains by late Sunday into Monday, as the upper trough and cut off low that brought cooler and drier air to the state continues to strengthen/deepen over the eastern seaboard. The upper trough will push off the eastern US coast as into the Atlantic Ocean by Monday. This will allow for the ridge axis of the ridge to move westward toward Arkansas with winds veer from north/northwest on Sunday night into Monday to south/southeast by Monday across the state. With the return of south to southeast flow across the state, temperatures will remain to above normal by the middle of the next work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front continues to push across this morning across the state. Along and ahead of the front, some MVFR ceilings have been observed associated with frontal passage. VFR conditions will persist through most of the forecast period. Expect breezy north to northwest winds to persist through sunset, then diminish afterwards. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 69 45 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 74 44 68 39 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 62 39 61 38 / 0 0 0 0Hot Springs AR 70 44 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 70 46 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 74 48 67 43 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 68 41 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 64 42 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 67 45 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 72 44 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 70 43 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 71 44 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 71 46 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ065>069. && $$ DISCUSSION...76 AVIATION...76  559 FXUS64 KOUN 161047 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 547 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 545 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Cooler air continues filtering into the area today, lasting into the weekend. - Freeze Watch in effect for far northwest OK tonight into Saturday morning. - Mostly dry with a warming trend next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Much cooler temperatures continue to advect into the area behind yesterday's cold front. Expect lows this morning to dip into the low 40s across northern/western OK with low 50s across southeast OK. Breezy northerly winds will continue through the day today helping keep temperatures quite cool, in the 50s and low 60s for highs. Some uncertainty exists regarding the degree of cloud cover and whether we see a scattered vs broken stratus deck this afternoon. Our forecast highs are based on a more optimistic cloud forecast but if low clouds are more extensive, highs could be a bit cooler in spots (low 50s vs forecast of upper 50s). Winds are expected to diminish tonight, especially across northern/western OK. With skies becoming mostly clear this should lead to excellent radiational cooling conditions. Lows Saturday morning could approach freezing across northwest OK, especially in sheltered and/or low lying areas, where a Freeze Watch remains in effect for Harper and Ellis counties. Elsewhere, lows will dip into the mid 30s to low 40s. Widespread frost and fog development is not anticipated tonight as even with light winds and extensive ground moisture from recent heavy rains, a dry airmass advecting over the area today should make it more difficult to achieve saturation near the ground. That said, as wet as the ground is would not be surprised to see some very localized frost and/or fog development in portions of western/northwestern OK in highly sheltered locations. Ware && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The surface ridge axis will settle over the area on Saturday, helping keep things cool with highs once again expected to be in the 50s in most areas. Fog formation may be a bit more favored Saturday night with some slight airmass modification/moistening, wet ground, and continued light winds and mostly clear skies. The ridge will settle further to our southeast by Sunday as troughing over the Rockies promotes lee cyclogenesis to our west. Surface pressure falls will promote increasing southerly flow and a warming trend, with highs Sunday afternoon expected to make it back into the mid to upper 60s across the area under mostly sunny skies. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A warming trend and generally dry conditions are in store for the early to middle part of next week as upper ridging builds over the area and a large cutoff low develops along the California coast by the middle of next week. The only precipitation chance during this period (currently <10%) is across western/northwestern OK Monday into Tuesday as a weak shortwave lifts northeastward across NM/CO, but for now the bulk of the forcing is forecast to remain to our northwest. Better rain chances may accompany the western US trough late next week into next weekend, but model disagreement is high regarding the speed and amplitude of the trough as it begins to eject eastward. Ware && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds gradually decreasing later today/tonight. Northerly winds will remain breezy/gusty during the day but decrease late this afternoon/evening becoming light tonight. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 58 39 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 60 37 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 61 40 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 57 33 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 58 36 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 64 43 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for OKZ004-009. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...25  693 FXUS61 KAKQ 161053 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 653 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC introduced a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) today for portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore due to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. Still watching the potential for coastal low development later this weekend into next weekend, details remain highly uncertain at this time. Gale Warnings have been issued for most of the local waters with Gale Watches for the upper rivers. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near record warmth and breezy today with gusty showers (isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. 2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. 3) There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 AM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near record warmth and breezy today with gusty showers (isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. Early this morning, a shallow backdoor cold front that pushed south yesterday has stalled across the Carolinas and is beginning to lift back northward as a warm front. Satellite and surface observations show low stratus and patchy fog in the wake of the front due to a light onshore flow. In addition, light to moderate rain showers have developed across northern portions of the forecast area, with the highest coverage from the Northern Neck over to the MD Eastern Shore. Any low clouds and/or fog dissipates rather quickly later this morning as the front lifts north as a warm front and winds become southerly. An expansive deep upper trough digging across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley today will drive rapid, low-level warm air advection over the Mid Atlantic. Highs will soar into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, with a few spots potentially approaching 90F (upper 70s to lower 80s at the immediate Atlantic coast and across the Eastern Shore). These values are ~15 to 20 degrees above normal and will challenge record highs, see the climate section below for more details. Still expecting the daytime hours to remain dry area-wide. A strong cold front approaches from the NW this evening, and is forecast to cross the area late tonight into Saturday morning. CAMs still depict a thin, strongly forced line of showers and isolated storms late this evening into tonight. The overnight timing and limited instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg or less) should keep the overall severe threat low for a majority of the area. However, strong kinematics aloft will likely be able to mix down to the surface with wind gusts of 30 to 40+ mph possible as the front comes through. We will need to keep an eye on far northeastern portions of the area (MD Eastern Shore) where there may be slightly better instability and better kinematics. SPC has this area highlighted in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for areas north of I-64 for the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. The best dynamics for severe storms will likely be north of the local area. For Saturday, the front crosses the area and moves off the coast by the morning, triggering a sharp surge of cold air advection. Daytime highs will be achieved during the early morning hours, with temperatures struggling to get out of the mid 50s by the afternoon hours. Deep mixing in the wake of the front will promote breezy NW winds, with gusts of 25 to 35+ mph inland and 40 to 45+ mph along the immediate coast. Rain chances hang on into the late morning/early afternoon hours (highestSE) as the upper shortwave does not cross the area until 18z or later. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. Strong NW flow aloft in the wake of the cold front will usher in the coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday. Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but there will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally, especially closer to the coast. With the surface high forecast to be 1035mb+, kept the theme from the previous forecast and undercut NBM lows by a few degrees in the northern Piedmont where decoupling is more probable closer to sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dewpoints, at least patchy frost will be possible there. Closer to the coast, lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Mostly sunny Sunday (potentially more clouds in the SE) with highs about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Additional frost potential is possible Sunday night into Monday morning across the northern Piedmont with temperatures again dropping back into the 30s. KEY MESSAGE 3...There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. Considerable ensemble/deterministic model spread exists heading into early to mid next week. Strong high pressure wedges down from the north, while an upper cutoff low develops off the Southeast/Mid Atlantic coast. Guidance continues to struggle with how close this coastal system remains to the shoreline, with some solutions having this low retrograding back towards the local area by mid to late week. For now, have low end (slight chance) rain chances along the immediate coast through much of next week, but this will be refined as models get a better handle on this coastal system. Breezy N to NE winds will likely persist through much of next week, with the highest gusts along the immediate coast. Near to slightly below average temperatures are currently in the forecast for next week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Friday... This morning, the cold front that settled south of the area overnight is slowly lifting to the north as a warm front. Widespread IFR to LIFR CIGs (and localized IFR VSBYs) to start off the forecast period. We should begin to see a fairly rapid improvement in flying conditions over the next few hours from SW to NE, with all sites improving to VFR by late morning or early afternoon as S-SW winds pick up (gusts 20-25 knots). VFR conditions are then expected through this evening, though a strong cold front approaching from the NW late will allow for increasing rain (and potential thunderstorm) tonight. Another round of sub-VFR CIGs (and potentially reduced VSBYs) is looking increasingly likely for the later portion of the forecast period. Outlook: Additional rain chances, gusty NW winds, and sub-VFR CIGs are expected Saturday morning into the afternoon, especially across eastern portions of the area. sub-VFR CIGs may try to linger across the southeast Sunday into Monday as low pressure develops offshore. && .MARINE... As of 525 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - SW winds increase today but should largely remain sub-SCA through this afternoon. - A strong cold front crosses the local waters tonight, bringing SCA conditions. SCAs are in effect for this surge. A brief period of gusts up to 35 kt is possible immediately behind the front. - Gale conditions are expected from Saturday morning through at least Sunday night with the potential for Gale conditions lingering well into next week. Gale Warnings are in effect for most of the local waters with Gale Watches in effect for the upperrivers. - Widespread coastal flooding is possible next week with the potential for several days of flooding beginning Sunday and continuing into at least mid-week. Winds this morning have turned to the S/SE as a warm front lifts north across the local waters. Light S winds early this morning become SW and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt later this morning through this afternoon. While most guidance keeps winds sub- SCA, some guidance shows portions of the middle Ches Bay and northern coastal waters potentially reaching low-end SCA conditions by late this afternoon into this evening. As such, have SCAs starting at 7 PM for these locations. Elsewhere, SCAs start at 10 PM this evening to account for N winds behind a strong cold front associated with an area of low pressure moving into northern New England. Will note that given the strength of the front (pressure rises of around 5 mb in 6 hours), winds may abruptly become N and gust to 35 kt for a couple of hours. However, given the short duration of this surge and generally low confidence in this surge, think SMWs are a better way to handle the surge. The stronger CAA lags behind the front as a strong area of high pressure (~1038 mb) builds into the southern Plains. As the high gradually gets closer to the region, the pressure gradient tightens with N winds increasing to 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35-40 kt Sat morning. The 00z model guidance (GFS/EURO/CMC) is in greater agreement that a coastal low will likely form along this front by late Sat/Sat night as a piece of vorticity becomes cutoff across the region. If a cutoff low does form aloft, the surface low underneath will likely struggle to move much through mid-late week next week given weak flow aloft underneath a large, broad upper level ridge. As such, models show this coastal low meandering through mid-late week next week (some even longer). If this occurs, the local waters would remain under a tight pressure gradient between the coastal low off the Southeast coast and strong high pressure building into interior New England. As such, a prolonged period of NE Gale conditions (winds initially become NE Sun morning) could persist well into next week with the best chance across the southern coastal waters. Elevated winds, seas, beach erosion, and tidal flooding are all possible. For now, have issued Gale Warnings for all of the local waters except the upper rivers beginning Sat morning and continuing through Sun night. However, extensions of the Gale Warnings are likely (especially across the southern waters) into midweek. For now, have limited the Gale Warning to six forecast periods (per collaboration with neighboring offices) and will likely keep extending by one or two forecast periods at a time (if confidence allows) with each major forecast update. Additionally, have Gale Watches for the upper rivers from Sat evening through Sat night given lower confidence and a later time of arrival for the potential Gale conditions. Confidence is lower in the wave/sea forecast than the winds. However, currently have seas building to 8-12 ft north and 9-13 ft south (12-15+ ft offshore) by Sat night into Sun. Meanwhile, waves build to 4-8 ft across the Ches Bay (highest across the lower Ches Bay). Will note that if a period of prolonged NE winds at Gale conditions does develop and persist for several days, seas could be higher than currently forecast. Given the building seas, High Surf Advisories will likely be needed along at least the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach and potentially across the Eastern Shore as well. However, confidence in the start time for 8+ ft nearshore waves is low before Sat night (fourth period). As such, have opted to hold off on High Surf Advisories for this update. COASTAL FLOODING... Given the prolonged period of strong NE winds next week, widespread coastal flooding is possible. Tidal anomalies begin to increase Saturday with mainly nuisance flooding possible along the lower Ches Bay. By Sunday, winds become NE, resulting in the potential for widespread minor flooding with localized moderate flooding possible at a few locations. The current tidal forecast only goes through Monday, however, widespread minor to moderate flooding is possible Monday and will continue to be possible into at least the middle of next week. Will note that moderate to major flooding is possible, particularly if NE winds trend strong and/or look to linger several days. Coastal communities should be aware of the potential for multiple days of coastal flooding with each high tide next week and stay tuned as the forecast gets refined and details get ironed out. && .CLIMATE... - Record High Temperatures Fri 10/16: - RIC: 90 (1897) (latest in season 90F on record) - ORF: 87 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/14/2026) - SBY: 85 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) - ECG: 86 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ631-632-634-656-658. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632- 634-652-654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633- 639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ639. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...RMM CLIMATE...LKB  572 FXUS65 KSLC 161003 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 403 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1029 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026... - Another night of freezing temperatures will impact the Sanpete and Sevier Valleys as well as eastern Juab and Millard Counties tonight. - A few thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening and again Monday afternoon and evening. - More widespread precipitation will occur Tuesday through at least the early part of the weekend, with another 0.50-1.50 inches for most locations, locally up to 2 inches (or even more) for areas that do well in southerly flow. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1029 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026... A warming trend will continue as high pressure remains overhead through the first part of the weekend. A cut off upper level low currently over southern California will continue to retrograde westward. Meanwhile, the continued very active eastern Pacific will have at least two ongoing tropical cyclones (Simon and Trudy). As the upper level low continues to shift westward, tropical moisture from weakening Tropical Storm Simon will be drawn northward into Baja California and eventually the Desert Southwest Sunday. This upper level low will eject across the Desert Southwest ahead of the next Pacific trough Sunday. PW anomalies from this moisture advection ahead of the low will reach near 90-95th percentile across southern Utah. While it is mid-October, if sufficient destabilization occurs, a few thunderstorms capable of heavy rain will develop Sunday afternoon and evening across southern Utah. This threat will continue Monday afternoon and evening. The previously mentioned upper level trough will be off the central California Coast by Tuesday morning. Broad upper level divergence ahead of this upper level trough combined with PVA will support the develop of widespread precipitation across central and southern Utah by Tuesday afternoon. As this trough slowly crosses the West, additional periods of valley rain and high elevation snow will continue through at least the early weekend period. Rainfall totals (25th to 75th percentile) are averaging around 0.50 to 1.50 inches across most locations, with some areas that do well in southerly flow (northern Wasatch Front, Provo Canyon, southern mountains) likely seeing more than 2 inches. As far as snow, while it's over several days, looking like another 6 to 12 inches, mainly above 9000-9500 feet. Going Freeze Warnings are on track and no changes will be made. No additional headlines are needed at this juncture. && .AVIATION, Issued 1029 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026... KSLC...VFR conditions prevail at the terminal under mostly clear skies. Light southeasterly winds continue overnight, transitioning to the northwest after roughly 19z. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all regional terminals. Winds remain generally light and diurnally driven for northern Utah terminals into Friday. Across southern Utah and southwest Wyoming, while lighter winds are expected overnight, gusty northerly to easterly winds redevelop Friday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will strengthen over the region through the first half of the weekend, allowing for temperatures to gradually rise while maintaining light winds areawide. A drying of the environment is also anticipated under this area of high pressure, most notably across the central Utah mountains today and then into the southern and northern mountains as well as the west-central and southwest valleys by Saturday. An impulse of moisture pushing northward on Sunday will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to portion of southern Utah while the remainder of the area remains dry. An unsettled pattern will develop once again as we head through next week as another storm system sets its crosshairs on the eastern Great Basin region. Anticipate shower and thunderstorm activity to expand throughout the rest of Utah by as early as Tuesday and as late as Thursday as this storm system works its way through Utah. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for UTZ116-118-119. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC... AVIATION... FIRE WEATHER...Webber HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  201 FXUS66 KPDT 161010 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 310 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry and warm conditions through the day today 2. Breezy conditions through the Grande Ronde Valley today 3. Breezy through the wind prone areas Saturday and light showers in the Cascades && .DISCUSSION... Current nighttime satellite is showing mostly clear skies over the region. This will allow for cooler overnight temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s. Warmer temperatures along the foothills of the Blues due to the easterly downslope wind regime causing temperatures to be warmer in the mid to upper 40s with isolated 50s. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s across portions of central OR and the eastern mountains. The Basin, Gorge, foothills and Yakima/Kittitas Valleys will see temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Not a lot of change for the forecast since last night/ Deterministic models continue to be in firm agreement with the upper level ridge remaining over the area through Friday afternoon. Temperatures will peak today with in office calculations continuing to show temperatures to be nearly 15-20 degrees above seasonal normal. Looking at the ensemble guidance, 90% of the HREF raw ensembles show temperatures to be in the low to mid 70s through the Basin, foothills, Gorge and Yakima/Kittitas Valleys while central OR and the John Day Basin will see upper 70s with some possible 80s mixed in. Models show that today (Friday) will see the synoptic transition of the upper level ridge moving east and an upper level trough building into the region from British Columbia. As the ridge leaves the region, current runs of the deterministic models show a weak surface level high in Treasure Valley while a weak surface low is over the Columbia Basin. This is the perfect synoptic set up for easterly breezy winds through the Grande Ronde Valley. Easterly winds are currently already flowing over the Blues based off ground observations. Winds through the area will begin to pick after midnight Thursday reaching its peak after 11 AM and persisting through 5 PM Friday. HREF raw ensembles show sustained winds of 20- 25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph with some isolated 40 mph gusts with above 80% agreement. Saturday models show the upper level trough beginning to dig into the PacNW. As the leading edge of the trough wedges itself against the Cascades, the pressure gradients begin to tighten leading to breezy conditions through the typical winds prone gap areas. Looking at the NBM raw ensembles, 60-80% are in agreement that the Kittitas Valley will see winds between 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30-35 mph. The Gorge will see 15-20 mph sustained winds and gusts of 25-30 mph. With this front, light precipitation along the crests of the Cascades is expected with near 0.03 inches in 24 hours and 90% HREF ensemble agreement. By the beginning of next week models show the upper level trough form into a low pressure system and begin to move to the south. Models show the low to cutoff and move to the south of the region. This will bring chances of wrap around moisture to the Blues and the Wallowa Mountains. Clusters are however struggling to resolve the regime with timing, positioning and strength all varying between the models. The only agreement the models seem to have is the fact there is a low pressure system making its way along the west coast. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Winds will be generally light through the period with only RDM seeing winds near 10 kts and gusting to near 18 kts after 15Z. Mostly clear skies will also persist through the period. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 73 41 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 74 49 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 69 37 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 70 42 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 70 38 70 34 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 67 39 61 29 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 79 34 66 27 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 71 45 70 35 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 76 37 72 34 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 75 46 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...90  665 FXUS62 KFFC 161024 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 624 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry conditions will persist for the next 7 days. - A mostly dry cold front moving through late Friday will bring crisp fall temperatures and gusty winds to the area to start off the weekend. - The first near freezing temperatures (<35F) of the season are possible for the higher mountains of northeast Georgia Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A robust trough swinging through the eastern CONUS will define the weather through the next few days. A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, however limited moisture (PWATS < 1.3) will limit precipitation chances. CAM guidance does indicate PoPs may be notably higher than the lower resolution global models are hinting at, so may see an uptrend in the PoPs as we get through the next couple forecast updates. For now, PoPs will remain generally less than 15% today. There will likely be at least a couple light showers somewhere in north GA this afternoon. The main concern with this front will be wind risk. Strong upper level support will rapidly tighten the pressure gradient over the southeast coastal states. Winds of 15 to 25 mph will be likely with gusts to 35 mph at times Friday night into Saturday morning. Gusts on the north GA ridgelines could reach 40 to 50 mph. With recent wind damage from last week's storm, trees and limbs could be more prone to wind damage. Significantly drier air will quickly follow the frontal passage. PWATs will fall from around 1.25" to <0.5" in about 24 hrs. Dry and breezy conditions will mean much cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid 30s and 40s (much more seasonable). Temperatures at the highest elevations in far northeast GA may actually approach frost conditions Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The long term will bring continued persistent dry weather with cooler temperatures moderating through next week. By Sunday, surface high pressure centered from New England into the Northeast will extend southwestward into the region. Meanwhile, midlevel ridging will begin to extend its grip eastward. Cool, breezy northeast winds will be enhanced by the pressure gradient between the aforementioned high and a developing low in the western Atlantic. Combined with temperatures remaining below normal (highs only reaching the low to mid 60s for most), Sunday will feel decidedly Fall-like. Though morning lows will remain in the 40s to low 50s through the week, daytime highs will begin a more noticeable warming trend by Monday. Highs will begin to nudge back toward the 70s for most areas by Monday with widespread 70s thereafter. All-in-all, next week will bring pleasant and seasonal conditions. As far as rainfall prospects are concerned, continued high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will keep things bone dry. In fact, ensembles continue to indicate likely dry weather extending toward the end of October. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR through period. A fast moving, mostly dry cold front moves through this aftn. Winds pick up with the front out of the NW with gusts up to 30kts. Some iso shra may be psbl this aftn, mostly N of I85, though coverage will be patchy and brief. SCT MVFR psbl this evening along the front, though likely less than 1 hour. Winds turn more N thru overnight. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium confidence -shra risk. High confidence all other elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 86 52 66 44 / 0 10 0 0 Atlanta 84 51 65 47 / 10 10 0 0 Blairsville 80 42 58 35 / 10 20 0 0 Cartersville 85 48 64 42 / 20 10 0 0 Columbus 86 52 70 49 / 10 10 0 0 Gainesville 83 50 64 44 / 10 10 0 0 Macon 88 54 70 48 / 0 10 0 0 Rome 85 48 63 41 / 20 10 0 0 Peachtree City 85 48 66 44 / 10 10 0 0 Vidalia 87 61 69 49 / 0 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...SM  514 FXUS62 KILM 161018 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 618 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 6 AM EDT... The Aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. As of 3 AM EDT... The Gale Watch over all waters has been upgraded to a Gale Warning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures near record highs again today. 2) Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures near record highs again today. One last day of warm weather today with deep SW flow over the area as high pressure shifts farther offshore. Temps will not be quite as high as yesterday, but highs in the mid/upr 80s will still come close to daily records. Please see the Climate section below for more info. KEY MESSAGE 2...Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend. A strong cold front is still slated to move through the area tonight into early Sat, ushering in the coolest air of autumn thus far. Guidance continues to differ on how widespread any rain will be, with PoPs following the fropa remaining in the 30-60% range daytime Saturday with any rainfall expected to be under a quarter of an inch. Deep northerly flow will develop as system shifts farther off the coast through Sat aftn. Dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 this evening will drop through Sat down into the 40s by late Sat. This drying trend will continue into Sat night with gusty northerly winds allowing dewpoints to bottom out early Sun in the 30s to around 40 close to the coast. Plenty of CAA will bring temps down quite a few degrees below normal Sat into Sun. Temps Sat aftn will resemble overnight temps just 12 hrs before, and the stiff northerly winds will make it feel even cooler. Expect overnight lows Sat night in the low/mid 40s. Overall, fall-like weather will arrive Sat with a gradual warming through early next week. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions continuing. Some ground fog may impact terminals temporarily this morning, but light winds should keep any MVFR BR restrictions brief. SW winds increase this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. CIGs lower late tonight with a wind shift between 08Z and 11Z behind the cold front. Showers are likely to develop around 12Z Saturday Extended Outlook... Northerly winds could gust over 30 knots on Saturday. High confidence in MVFR/IFR cigs following the cold front with scattered showers. Dry air should lead to MVFR/VFR conditions later in the day with steadily improving conditions overnight. A coastal low to our east will maintain northeasterly flow, but should be far enough away to prevent sub-VFR conditions from materializing. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue through this evening with sfc high pressure offshore. A strong cold front moves through very early Sat morning, allowing winds to quickly veer from SW to the N, gradually veering even more to the NNE through the day Saturday into Sunday. Seas will ramp up in increasing winds ahead of the front and will peak late Sun. The Gale Watch over all waters has been upgraded to a Gale Warning, starting midday Sat and continuing through late Sun night, and will be extended as needed in future updates. Confidence is high for 35-40 kt gusts over the 0-20 NM coastal waters, and for 40-45 kt gusts over the 20-60 NM waters. There is still plenty of uncertainty over potential low pressure development offshore this weekend, but regardless, a strong pressure gradient will persist through at least early next week over the local waters between strong high pressure inland and low pressure well offshore. && .CLIMATE... Forecast/record highs for Friday, October 16: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 86F (87F in 2021, 2018, and 1975) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 82F (88F in 1990) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 88F (91F in 2021) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 88F (92F in 1925) && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250- 252-254-256-280-284. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS/21 KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...MAS/21 MARINE...MAS