299 FXUS64 KAMA 161200 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Breezy conditions expected through the night tonight and through most of the day Friday with wind gusts reaching up to 40 mph. - Low temperatures Friday night are forecast to reach or dip below freezing for much of the combined Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The upper level, cutoff low has been ingested by the larger upper level trough and is continuing to move eastward. Winds at the surface are going to continue to be northerly and breezy. The strongest winds have subsided, though there is still potential for a few gusts to reach 40 mph through Friday. The strongest winds are expected to be in the southeastern TX Panhandle. Dry conditions have returned as precipitation has moved out of the area as the trough moves east and are expected to continue through Saturday. Winds will be calmer on Saturday, however, the northwestern combined Panhandles may be a bit breezier than the rest of the region, with sustained winds reaching up around 20 mph. Saturday morning temperatures are expected to be below freezing for much of the combined Panhandles and areas expected to reach or dip below freezing are under a freeze watch. Confidence is increasing for the issuance of a freeze warning. Abdullayev/Meccariello/Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Temperatures through the weekend and into next week look to steadily increase as a ridge sets up and dominates the upper level synoptic pattern. A cutoff low will setup over the Southwest US and will work with the ridge to switch our winds from northerly to southwesterly, aiding in the warm up. By midweek, high temperatures are expected to return to the upper 70s and low 80s. A shortwave trough is continuing to be analyzed by some operational models, bringing a low potential for some spotty showers Tuesday afternoon and night. Confidence is low at this time, but low PoPs have been included for that period to reflect the possibility. Temperatures also look to decrease upon the passing of this shortwave. Otherwise, the next major weather system being watched is a deep trough that will come off the Pacific Ocean and race eastward. Current initializations of this system show the Panhandles in a favorable location for precipitation. However, due to how far out this is, exact track and depth of the trough is not very well known and will be watched over the next several days. Abdullayev/Meccariello/Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions over the region early this morning. There are some high clouds running from the southern to eastern portions of the TX panhandle but otherwise quiet conditions this morning. Breezy surface winds are expected today but not as strong as yesterday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for TXZ001>014-016>018-317. OK...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...KP  679 FXUS64 KEPZ 161208 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 608 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 548 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong backdoor cold front is moving through tonight, bringing gusty winds and well below normal temperatures into the weekend. - High Wind Warning is in effect for far west Texas and portions of southern New Mexico into Friday. Wind gusts to 60 mph are possible along mountain west slopes. - Scattered rain showers for the middle of next week as temperatures rebound. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 949 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A potent cold front is pushing through the Borderland this evening, bringing strong NE winds behind it. Gusts over 50 mph have already been seen E of the US 54 corridor. The strength of the sfc high behind the front is more in-line with what we tend to see in the middle of winter (1045mb-ish over central high plains on Fri). This will result in an impressive pressure gradient across the CWA as the front sweeps through in the near-term. West mtn slopes will see the gustiest winds, reaching 60 mph or higher. The strongest winds are expected to occur from now through early Fri AM with winds easing a bit during the day on Fri and shifting more easterly. Generally 25-35 mph sustained winds are modeled with a pocket of lighter winds from Las Cruces up towards Holloman AFB. No changes have been made to the wind headlines. Forecast remains on track. Dust models, including the RRFS and NOAA AQ model, show a signal for blowing dust through the overnight, favoring S Otero County and far west TX. Low chance of 1 mile VIS in isolated areas, most likely in El Paso County. Any dust lifted off White Sands should get blocked by the San Andres and struggle to reach the upper RGV. The dust threat lowers Fri AM and shifts out W towards the Lordsburg Playa where winds remain strong. Confidence is lower in seeing dust impacts in Hidalgo Co compared to eastern areas, where BLDU Advisories are in effect until 9am Fri. An upper low cuts off from the flow off the Baja coast for the rest of the week, pulling moisture into it. A ridge of high pressure extends from the NW at the same time, keeping most of the moisture to our south. Precip chances remain near zero into the weekend as winds subside through Sat. The upper low opens up into a shortwave on Sun, bringing some of its moisture into the region and slight rain chances for western areas. Then, a Pacific storm system dives down the West Coast, pulling more subtropical moisture northward through midweek from the Pacific. PWs climb towards 1" with low- medium rain chances area-wide late in the period. A low flood threat is present as NBM 90th %-ile shows 24-hr rain amounts of 1-2" Wed and Thu. Confidence is low in impacts for this midweek rain event. Temperatures crash to unseasonably cool levels (highs 10-20 degrees below normal) behind tonight's front. Lowland highs in the low-mid 60s are forecast through Sat with cold air advection ongoing. It'll feel more like winter than early fall, especially in the Sacs Fri AM as wind chills reach the teens. Lowland areas to the N and E are likely to dip into the 30s Sat AM with patchy frost. Temperatures rebound towards normal early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The strong winds will continue for most of the day, but things will finally slowdown later this evening. We will see occasional lower visibilities due to blowing dust. But visibilities are expected to stay at VFR conditions. KELP has some high clouds, but those will move off later this morning and we will have unlimited ceilings this afternoon into the overnight hours. &&.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 548 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front ushered in strong winds and some blowing dust this morning. These elevated winds will continue through most of the day, before slowing this evening. Min RH's today and Saturday will be in the mid to upper teens in the lowlands and in the 20's in area mountains. Sunday will start both a warming trend and moisture will return to the region. Rain chances will be back in the forecast for much of next week, with min RH's above 30% across the area. Ventilation rates today will be very good to excellent and then a little lower on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 44 64 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 37 59 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 41 61 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 38 61 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 23 46 31 52 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 41 61 45 68 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 38 58 41 64 / 0 0 10 10 Deming 42 63 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 44 61 48 69 / 0 0 20 10 West El Paso Metro 47 63 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 39 61 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 45 68 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 37 55 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 45 66 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 44 62 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 44 64 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 39 62 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 40 64 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 46 63 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 39 62 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 27 56 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 28 58 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 27 53 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 56 37 63 / 0 0 10 10 Hillsboro 40 60 43 67 / 0 0 10 10 Spaceport 37 61 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 33 60 37 66 / 0 0 10 20 Hurley 38 59 40 66 / 0 0 10 10 Cliff 44 67 47 72 / 0 0 20 20 Mule Creek 40 63 44 67 / 0 0 20 20 Faywood 39 58 42 65 / 0 0 10 10 Animas 46 62 47 70 / 0 0 10 10 Hachita 43 60 45 69 / 0 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 44 63 45 70 / 0 0 10 10 Cloverdale 42 58 44 69 / 0 0 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County. Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County. NM...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley. High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel. High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. Wind Advisory until noon MDT today for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Northern Dona Ana County-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands. Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for Otero Mesa- Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice  941 FXUS63 KMKX 161210 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 710 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Blustery northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph today, especially along the lakeshore. - High-end gale force winds are expected over Lake Michigan today through this evening. A waterspout or two will be possible this afternoon and night. - Temperatures to drop just below freezing (inland from Lake Michigan) tonight into Saturday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect for most areas. A Frost Advisory is in effect elsewhere. && .UPDATE... Issued 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A secondary cold front is currently swinging down through central WI with upper level support and additional region of high moisture within the column. Radar returns suggest some moderate rain rates in some spots, particularly in the western parts of the CWA where there may even be a bit of a meso low feature swinging through. As this secondary front pushes through precip chances will increase with chances decreasing fairly sharply behind the the front as cooler drier air starts to push in. Lower clouds will stick around a bit longer into the afternoon but much of the precip chances will push out by around noon with only lingering chances near the lake for a few hours thereafter. Kuroski && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today through Friday Night: The winds increased quickly across MN, IA and southern WI last evening as low pressure strengthened over northeast IL and southern Lake Michigan. The cyclogenesis was in response to a strong and amplifying mid level trough digging into the Upper Great Lakes region and the right entrance region of the upper jet overhead. Strong cold air advection is underway with these blustery west winds over southern WI. The winds dried out the low levels and ended the drizzle. However, areas toward central WI are just on the north side of the stronger isallobaric winds which is keeping the low clouds and drizzle lingering there longer. Another push of cold air advection will arrive mid morning in southern WI as that mid level trough makes its way across WI. This will turn the winds more northwesterly and give the gusts another boost. By late this afternoon, strong north winds will be rushing down Lake Michigan and also through WI in the wake of that trough. Expect peak wind gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range during the late afternoon. Highest gusts will be right along the lakeshore. They should remain just below wind advisory criteria (45 mph) but this will be the place to watch. With the cold air flowing over the relatively warm water of Lake Michigan, there will be a lot of low level instability and thus a chance for a few thunderstorms. Also with this instability will come the potential for a waterspout or two over the southern open waters. The strong winds will probably limit that potential, but the ingredients are there. The 850mb temps will drop below freezing this afternoon and remain there through tonight as a cold air mass briefly drops in. With winds and clouds diminishing after sunset, and especially after midnight as surface high pressure quickly pushes in, we will have the chance to decouple and allow for efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s by late evening and are expected to bottom out at around 30 degrees (28 to 31) inland from Lake Michigan early Saturday morning. We upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning (this includes Sheboygan county) and added a Frost Advisory for the rest of the lakeshore counties (Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha). Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Saturday through Thursday: Temperatures will quickly recover on Saturday as the low exits and strong high pressure sets up over the Midwest. Yet another surface trough developing in the Northern Plains will keep our pressure gradient tight over WI on Sat, so expect breezy southwest winds (but only to around 25 mph) and highs recovering into the mid to upper 50s. Breezy southwest winds will continue Sunday and highs should manage to reach the lower 60s. The warm-up will continue through Thursday as we largely remain in southerly flow. Highs will be in the 60s, but get up to around 70 by Wednesday. The weather will remain largely dry from Saturday through Thursday. There is one weak shortwave that cold bring a period of clouds and a few sprinkles Wed nt. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A period of rain expected over the next few hours to swing through with a secondary front. Precip may gradually lighten as this front slides south but some VSBY reductions will be possible with any rain. MVFR CIGS remain this morning in the 1500-2500ft range which will gradually rise into the afternoon, becoming VFR as skies clear out from the northwest during the late afternoon to early evening. Otherwise very breezy winds today with northerly gusts as high as 30-35kts. Winds will begin to calm tonight as higher pressure pushes in. VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the TAF period after skies clear. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Low pressure of 29.7 inches over northeast IL will deepen to around 29.4 inches as it shifts into the eastern Great Lakes today. Expect a northerly wind shift tonight to increase to high- end gales by late Friday morning as the low departs while a strong high pressure around 30.7 inches builds into the Plains. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all of the open waters of Lake Michigan Friday morning into Friday night. Light rain will continue over the north half overnight, with drier conditions over the south half. Lake effect showers and a few thunderstorms are possible during the day along the back side of departing low pressure. A few waterspouts are possible in the afternoon showers/thunderstorms, particularly over the south half of Lake Michigan. As the high sinks toward the Ohio River Valley on Saturday, strong low pressure around 29.0 inches will develop in northern Manitoba through the weekend. The tight pressure gradient may bring southwest gales to Lake Michigan on Sunday, primarily over the north half. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068- WIZ069-WIZ070...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday. Frost Advisory...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday. Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Friday to 10 PM Friday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  563 FXUS61 KCAR 161228 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 828 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong system today through tomorrow is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north today/tonight and strong winds tonight into tomorrow. 2) Extended dry period from the weekend through at least late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system today through tomorrow is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north today/tonight and strong winds tonight into tomorrow. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Upper trough digging into the upr Midwest will phase with s/wv lifting out of the central Plains and deepen sfc low moving twd the Great Lakes today. Sfc high will build into ern Canada by daybreak allowing return flow to commence over the region. Isentropic lift looks to bring pcpn into wrn zones around 12z, overspreading remainder of the region within 2-3 hours. Given how quickly precip will move in cannot rule out light snow falling over the north at onset. Accums up to one inch over the higher terrain with a dusting to 1/2 inch possible over northern Aroostook this morning. As warm advection continues on increasing LLJ temps throughout the CWA will warm and switch snow over to rain over all locations by 19z. Cannot rule out a mix with sleet as it does so but sfc temps should rapidly rise with icing not expected. Temps will climb into the 50s south and 40s north by the evening hours and continue to rise through midnight before CAA moves into the northwest and drops south during the course of the overnight. By daybreak expect that temps may be down into the u20s over the North Woods and around 40 for Downeast. Precip will be on its way out late and will likely end as rain for most of the area. Some showers are possible in north and west areas throughout the day Saturday, which could fall as a rain/snow mix. Southerly winds on today will gust upwards of 25-30 mph in the afternoon as LLJ kicks in. As cold front moves through expect winds to quickly veer to the northwest with frequent gusts upwards of 30-35mph overnight, higher in the elevated terrain. Rapidly falling overnight temps will combine with strong winds to produce wind chills in the upper teens and lower 20s over the north by Saturday morning lasting through Sunday morning. Gusty winds could also cause some isolated power outages. KEY MESSAGE 2...Extended dry period from the weekend through at least late next week. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As the system departs Saturday, high pressure will build in over the area. High pressure is expected to continue to dominate through next week as the jet stream generally stays to our north. High pressure will limit precipitation chances through next week and lead to seasonable temperatures with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Today...Aroostook Terminals (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL): VFR/MVFR, local LIFR, early with a snow/rain mix developing. Expect vsby to drop to 2-3SM by 15z with -SN and BR. Precipitation transitions to -RA by 15z-18z, with cigs lowering to IFR levels (OVC004-006) and vsby around 4SM. SE winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. LLWS is expected to develop around 17z-18z at 2000 ft with S winds around 35-45 kt lasting through around 02z Saturday. BGR: VFR early with light rain developing. MVFR cigs expected by 15z with -RA moving in, dropping further to IFR/LIFR (OVC005) by 19z with vsby restricted to 3SM in -RA and BR. SE winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. LLWS will become a factor starting at 19z at 2000 ft with S winds around 50 kt, lasting through around 00z.BHB: VFR early with light rain developing. By approx 16z, expect MVFR cigs (OVC015) and IFR vsby (3SM) in -RA, with winds increasing from the SE to 10-15 kt and gusts around 20 kt. Further deterioration to LIFR/IFR (OVC005 to OVC004) and 3SM vsby expected by 19z. S winds will peak around 15-20 kt with gusts approaching 25 kt. LLWS will develop by 19z at 2000 ft with S winds around 50 kt, lasting through around 00z. Tonight...MVFR/IFR in rain showers improving to VFR/MVFR from north to south after midnight. NW winds 10-20 kts gusting to 30-35 kts. Saturday...MVFR over the north Saturday with snow showers. VFR otherwise. NW winds 15 to 20 kt out of the NW Saturday with gusts up to 35 kt. Saturday Night...VFR. WNW winds 5-10 kts. Sunday - Monday... VFR. Light WNW winds Monday, becoming S winds 5-10kt, gusting to 20kts. Monday night-Tuesday... VFR. Variable winds Monday night, Light N winds Tuesday. && .MARINE... South winds increase above small craft levels from mid- morning and continue thru Friday night, with a SCA in effect from 15z. Seas increase to 4-8 feet Friday evening in swrly swell. Outer waters may approach gales Friday afternoon but confidence too low in occurrence in southerly winds. Gales are possible again in cold air advection late Friday night. Chance of rain through the morning Saturday. Seas peak at 11 to 13 ft on the outer waters and 6 to 9 ft on the coastal waters early Saturday. Seas between 4-6 ft Saturday Night, diminishing below 5 ft through the overnight hours and remaining there through Tuesday. NW winds 15 kts gusting to 30 kts on coastal waters, 20-25 kts gusting to 35kts on outer waters Saturday Night. Winds will diminish on Sunday. S to SW winds Sunday night 5-10 kts on intercoastal and 10-15 kt in the coastal and outer waters. Winds below small craft conditions Monday through Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ050>052. && $$ DISCUSSION...JMM/MB AVIATION...JMM/MB/CN  217 FXUS64 KMOB 161215 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 715 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Strong wind gusts expected to pose an enhanced threat for additional numerous downed trees and power outages over portions of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area on Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires. - Dangerous marine conditions developing Friday night through the weekend due to strong winds and high seas. In addition, a High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The current forecast is on track an no updates are needed. /13 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Monitoring the potential for fog development tonight across the area as low level moisture gradually increases and winds become light. This will favor fog, some potentially dense in some areas especially across coastal Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle where moisture will be greatest. At this time, it appears that limited coverage will preclude the need for a dense fog advisory. A potent upper level trough will dive southeast across the Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys tonight and Friday then off of the Southeast U.S. coast by Friday night. This will drive a strong cold front across the region later this afternoon and tonight. Moisture advection in advance of this front should remain limited, but may be enough along with lift along the front to produce a few showers today along the coast. Most areas should remain dry with the frontal passage. Another potentially high impact weather situation is likely to develop behind a strong cold front that will move through the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening. Behind the front, strong cold air advection and mixing will support the development of strong northerly wind gusts later Friday night through Saturday. This raises concerns especially across areas that experienced significant damage across portions of the western Florida Panhandle into interior portions of southwest Alabama. Latest short-term high resolution model guidance is suggesting the potential for several hours of wind gusts approaching 40 mph late Friday night into Saturday morning. The strength of these winds will have the potential to down numerous additional trees that were damaged by the extreme wind event associated with the sting jet on the west side of Hurricane Isaias. This would likely result in additional power outages in the hardest hit areas. We plan to issue a wind advisory this evening and add special wording to account for this threat. Temperatures will drop significantly behind the front with high temperatures over the weekend only recovering into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows in the middle to upper 40s over interior areas to the lower 50s near the coast. Upper level ridging will rebuild into the forecast area early next week with dry weather and slowly moderating temperatures anticipated through next week. /JLH && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop this afternoon and evening behind a strong cold front. These high winds will continue through the day on Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds are forecast for tonight as a strong cold front passes over area waters. A Gale warning is now in effect for all coastal waters tonight and Saturday, continuing through Saturday night well offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is likely for protected waters Saturday night as northerly winds begin to gradually ease. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the offshore waters Sunday through Monday, with Small Craft Exercise Caution in the bays and sounds. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 86 53 70 51 / 10 10 0 0 Pensacola 84 56 71 54 / 20 10 0 0 Destin 82 58 72 56 / 10 10 0 0 Evergreen 87 50 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 88 49 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 86 50 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 86 54 70 50 / 10 10 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060-261>266. FL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206. MS...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ078-079. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>636. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$  367 FXUS64 KCRP 161247 AAA AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 747 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 746 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Please note that the rip current risk was increased to high through Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 746 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A cold front this morning will bring strong north winds, cooler temperatures and drier conditions to South Texas. - Gale Warning is in effect this morning through early Saturday Afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed through late Saturday afternoon and evening. - A Wind Advisory is in effect this morning through tonight. - Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect this afternoon through Sunday morning. - Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Saturday. - Elevated fire weather concerns behind the cold front this afternoon, mainly across the Brush Country. - Low to medium rain chances across South Texas this morning associated with the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front can be seen via satellite and radar moving south to southeast across the Hill Country. The cold front is expected to move through S TX later this morning, finally bringing some relief from the heat. The cooler and drier conditions will be more noticeable tonight. A pleasant weekend is in store for S TX with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to low 60s. Temperatures begin to warm back up early next week. Rain chances associated with the cold front will be highest across the Rio Grande Plains with up to 55% chance and across the gulf waters with up to 70% across the offshore waters. The Brush Country, Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads have a 15-30% chance of mainly showers. A few thunderstorms will be possible. The rain is expected to end from northwest to southeast this afternoon. Strong north winds behind the cold front will be a concern with gusts up to 35-40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect across S TX starting this morning. Winds are expected to decrease below advisory levels initially across the western areas this afternoon, then across the eastern areas tonight. The islands are expected to remain at advisory levels through Saturday morning. Gale conditions are expected later this morning as the cold front pushes offshore, and will likely continue through Saturday morning to early Saturday afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 8-13 feet. Winds begin to relax Saturday afternoon and evening, but will remain at advisory levels through Saturday evening. Another concern will be coastal flooding. The strong northerly winds and large seas across the gulf waters and swell periods of 8-9 seconds will likely lead to minor coastal flooding during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect this afternoon through Sunday morning. In addition, the long period swells will be conducive for a moderate rip current risk today through Saturday. The north winds along the shore tend to negate the rip current risk, but given the long period swells and large seas, should lead to a moderate risk. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF cycle. A strong cold front began moving into the northern terminals (COT and VCT), and will move into the LRD, ALI and CRP sites between 12-14Z, bringing a brief period of MVFR CIGs/VSBYs and a low chance of showers. In addition, winds will go from light and variable to a strong north wind as the cold front moves southward across the region. Winds are expected to build to 20-30 knots with gusts around 35-40 knots, especially ALI and CRP. Winds are expected to gradually diminish through the overnight hours into Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front will move across the coastal waters later this morning, shifting winds to the north-northeast and increasing to near gale force (BF 7) with frequent gusts to gale (BF 8). A Gale Warning is in effect this morning through early Saturday afternoon. Winds will relax from nearshore to offshore through Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas will remain at advisory levels through Saturday evening. A moderate northeast breeze will develop by Sunday. There is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the nearshore waters and up to a 70% chance across the offshore waters through the morning hours. Rain chances will end from west to east through this afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front this morning will bring a strong northerly wind and drier conditions to South Texas through this afternoon. There may be a brief window this afternoon when RH values drop to around 25% across the Brush Country while winds are still strong, leading to elevated fire weather conditions. Due to a low ERC and moisture is normal to above normal, Red Flag Conditions are not anticipated. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the Brush Country for this afternoon from 2 PM through 8 PM for elevated fire weather conditions. RH values begin to increase this evening decreasing the threat. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend along with winds becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 82 57 73 55 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 79 53 73 50 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 79 56 72 52 / 60 0 0 0 Alice 81 55 72 52 / 20 0 0 0 Rockport 84 59 75 59 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 77 53 72 50 / 30 0 0 0 Kingsville 82 55 72 53 / 30 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 61 73 62 / 30 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239-240. Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ232>234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ345-442-443-447. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443-447. GM...Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-237. Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...NP/92  770 FXUS64 KSHV 161232 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 732 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A powerful, dry cold front will be moving through the region Friday morning, bringing much cooler temperatures, significantly drier air, and gusty northwest winds. - A Red Flag Warning is in effect to highlight increased fire weather danger from incoming dry air and gusty winds. - Behind the front, Saturday will see cooler than average temperatures, followed by a steady warming trend into next week, with dry weather throughout. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent guidance has continued to speed up the progression of this cold front pushing in from the northwest overnight tonight and into Friday morning. Some radar returns have been present along the front, which is currently draped from north central TX to western AR. There could be some light showers that accompany the front as it begins to push into the Four State Region overnight, but very little accumulation is expected. The I-30 corridor should cool into the 50s just before daybreak Friday thanks to the fropa and peak radiational cooling. Current guidance has the cold front stretching roughly from Deep East TX up into southwest AR by sunrise and pushing southeast of the region by mid-late morning. The front will immediately bring cooler temperatures and the northwesterly wind shift. A Wind Advisory has been issued to account for sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible through Friday evening. The drier airmass is expected to lag a few hours behind the front, fully encompassing the area by early afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the same time period to account for the elevated fire danger that will be in place with the gusty winds and RH's of 25 to 35 percent. With the conditions on Friday and the prolonged drought, wildfire starts and spreading will occur much quicker. Public interests should consider temporarily postponing any outdoor burning. These products may need extending into the weekend depending on how incoming data trends. Even with the front long pushed to the southeast, more seasonable temperatures will linger into the weekend. Temperatures could dip down into the upper 30s for portions of southwest AR early Sunday morning with other areas dropping into the 40s. But highs in the 60s and 70s will once again give way to mid to upper 80s by the middle of next week as ridging redevelops over the southeast CONUS. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 731 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For the 16/12z TAF Period...A cold front will continue to push through the region this morning. Winds in wake of the front will shift to the northwest and will be breezy at times, with gusts up to 35 mph. MVFR cigs will also move in behind the front through around the lunch hours today. Those cigs will go away, but will keep some mid and high clouds over the region through the end of the TAF period. Winds will also diminish by the end of the period, but gusts could still approach 20 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 1 AM Saturday. /20/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed during the day Friday in the event of wildfire development. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 70 50 68 45 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 74 50 70 45 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 67 42 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 67 47 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 71 45 69 40 / 10 0 0 0 TYR 66 48 67 45 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 68 47 67 44 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 72 51 69 47 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...20  660 FXUS65 KSLC 161256 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 656 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1029 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026... - Another night of freezing temperatures will impact the Sanpete and Sevier Valleys as well as eastern Juab and Millard Counties tonight. - A few thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening and again Monday afternoon and evening. - More widespread precipitation will occur Tuesday through at least the early part of the weekend, with another 0.50-1.50 inches for most locations, locally up to 2 inches (or even more) for areas that do well in southerly flow. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1029 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026... A warming trend will continue as high pressure remains overhead through the first part of the weekend. A cut off upper level low currently over southern California will continue to retrograde westward. Meanwhile, the continued very active eastern Pacific will have at least two ongoing tropical cyclones (Simon and Trudy). As the upper level low continues to shift westward, tropical moisture from weakening Tropical Storm Simon will be drawn northward into Baja California and eventually the Desert Southwest Sunday. This upper level low will eject across the Desert Southwest ahead of the next Pacific trough Sunday. PW anomalies from this moisture advection ahead of the low will reach near 90-95th percentile across southern Utah. While it is mid-October, if sufficient destabilization occurs, a few thunderstorms capable of heavy rain will develop Sunday afternoon and evening across southern Utah. This threat will continue Monday afternoon and evening. The previously mentioned upper level trough will be off the central California Coast by Tuesday morning. Broad upper level divergence ahead of this upper level trough combined with PVA will support the develop of widespread precipitation across central and southern Utah by Tuesday afternoon. As this trough slowly crosses the West, additional periods of valley rain and high elevation snow will continue through at least the early weekend period. Rainfall totals (25th to 75th percentile) are averaging around 0.50 to 1.50 inches across most locations, with some areas that do well in southerly flow (northern Wasatch Front, Provo Canyon, southern mountains) likely seeing more than 2 inches. As far as snow, while it's over several days, looking like another 6 to 12 inches, mainly above 9000-9500 feet. Going Freeze Warnings are on track and no changes will be made. No additional headlines are needed at this juncture. && && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions prevail at the terminal under clear skies through the valid TAF period. Light southerly drainage winds will transition to northerly flow around 20Z, remaining in place through the rest of the afternoon. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all regional terminals. A majority of terminals will continue to see light, terrain driven flows throughout the day, however, areas around KSGU through KCDC will see breezy northerly winds throughout the day. Peak winds in this area will gust upwards of 25-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 403 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... High pressure will strengthen over the region through the first half of the weekend, allowing for temperatures to gradually rise while maintaining light winds areawide. A drying of the environment is also anticipated under this area of high pressure, most notably across the central Utah mountains today and then into the southern and northern mountains as well as the west-central and southwest valleys by Saturday. An impulse of moisture pushing northward on Sunday will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to portion of southern Utah while the remainder of the area remains dry. An unsettled pattern will develop once again as we head through next week as another storm system sets its crosshairs on the eastern Great Basin region. Anticipate shower and thunderstorm activity to expand throughout the rest of Utah by as early as Tuesday and as late as Thursday as this storm system works its way through Utah. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for UTZ116-118-119. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC... AVIATION...Webber FIRE WEATHER...Webber HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  678 FXUS63 KFGF 161208 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 708 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures are forecast in the Devils Lake Basin early this morning. There is a medium to high probability of widespread freezing temperatures Friday night across much of the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 128 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 North winds remain gusty but speeds are well below advisory levels. North winds within the Red River valley at 06z were sustained 20-30 mph with gusts 35-40 at times. Cold advection a bit too weak to sustain higher values that are above the surface. So wind advisory for all areas dropped. Coord with WFO BIS. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Synopsis... Widespread stratus is present across the area this afternoon, both head of and behind the surface cold front that is moving through the region. Satellite imagery suggests extensive upstream stratus will prevail through much of tonight, save for across the Devils Lake Basin where some late-night clearing is expected. Showers are developing in southern Manitoba and north central ND in cyclonic flow, and are expected to spread south- southeast through this evening, resulting in a high PoP/low QPF scenario as the primary middle- and upper-level shortwave trough axis crosses the region. In the wake of this wave, mean upper- level ridging is forecast to build into the region by this weekend and is forecast to remain in place through much of next week. Low-level warm air advection this weekend will result in above-normal temperatures beginning Saturday and continuing through the middle to latter parts of next week. The spread in ensemble guidance and NBM membership is small for most of this period, with high confidence in highs in the 60s across much of the area from Saturday through next Thursday. Guidance suggests that a weakening shortwave trough and cold front may move through late this weekend, with breezy south-southwest winds ahead of that on Saturday, and breezy northwest winds behind it on Sunday. A mainly dry forecast is also in place from Friday through the middle to late part of next week given the mean ridging, though a low to medium probability exists for flow aloft to turn southwest by the middle of next week, which may eventually predicate low rain chances by then. ...Strong Winds through Tonight... Northwest winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph this afternoon are forecast to turn northerly and increase further tonight, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph, particularly in the Red River valley. Surface low pressure is centered near Lake of the Woods as of early afternoon, with a trailing cold front southwestward into west central MN. The surface low and cold front are both forecast to continue moving east-southeast across the area by late afternoon. Initial low- and midlevel cold air advection and an increasing surface pressure gradient behind the front is contributing to gusty winds in eastern North Dakota, which may approach advisory criteria from the Devils Lake Basin southward toward Valley City before 00z. However, the initial push of cold air advection is not particularly long-lived, and surface pressure rises are lacking. Both of those aspects will change after 00z when the middle- and upper-level shortwave trough axis passes eastern ND, turning deep-layer flow to a northerly direction, with a secondary and stronger surge of cold air advection concurrent with increasing deep-layer subsidence. The low-level wind fields will also increase with 45-50 kt flow in the 925 to 850 mb layer and cold-air-advection-steepened lapse rates contributing to sufficient mixing and momentum transfer through much of that layer. We also anticipate a 5-7 mb/3 hour surface pressure rise bubble moving southward through eastern ND and far western MN. This scenario is expected to yield advisory-level north-northwest winds in those areas, maximized in the Red River Valley given the orientation of the flow. Point forecast soundings at both Grand Forks and Fargo suggest momentum transfer may be sufficient for 50 kt gusts, but the depth and temporal efficiency of the mixed layer was not sufficient for us to upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Having said that, there is a 30-50% chance of gusts reaching 60 mph in the Red River Valley tonight when the aforementioned ingredients align, particularly in the 02z to 07z time frame. Both time- lagged HRRR and 12z RRFS/REFS guidance support maximum gusts near 50 mph, consistent with some uncertainty in the depth of mixing. There is also around a 50% probability that advisory-level gusts extend further into west central MN, e.g., portions of Otter Tail and Grant Counties. Time-lagged HRRR guidance supports that potential, but with some uncertainty in mixing nocturnally, we have not yet added them into the Wind Advisory. Winds are forecast to rapidly diminish by Friday morning as a surface ridge axis begins to approach the area. ...Freezing Temperatures... We have issued a Freeze Warning for portions of the area centered on the Devils Lake Basin tonight, where ensemble guidance and upstream observations provide high confidence in overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s F. This is supported by expected low-level cold air advection, but may be offset by lingering clouds (stratus) and winds that may not diminish until close to sunset even in those areas. Across the remainder of eastern ND and northwest and west central MN, we believe the cloud cover and winds will tend to inhibit the efficiency of cooling. Taken at face value, the 50th percentile NBM guidance suggests temperatures around 32 in parts of the MN lakes country. In contrast, MOS-based guidance (which is not bias-corrected by recent background trends) favors the temperatures staying above freezing, consistent with the expectation of cloud cover and winds limiting full cooling potential. Medium to high probabilities for freezing temperatures exist Friday night owing to the cool post-frontal air mass and expectation of a clear sky. The official forecast calls for low temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s F, lowest in parts of west central MN, which will be near a surface ridge axis the longest during the night. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 706 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Clouds on their way out with remaining clouds Bemidji area south to Park Rapids and Wadena clearing out this morning. Otherwise a generally clear sky today once any clouds clear. North wind diminishing mostly within the 10-15kt range sustained, few gusts 25 kts. Light winds late afternoon and evening but quickly turning to the south and increasing to 10-20 kts overnight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006-007-014- 015-054. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...FGF AVIATION...Riddle