792 FXAK68 PAFC 161318 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 518 AM AKDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Discussion: A shortwave trough rotating around the north side of the larger upper low, currently positioned just east of Kodiak Island, resulted in scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms over the northern Gulf and coastal areas overnight. This trough will lift over the Kenai Peninsula a bit later this morning with showers trying to spill over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. May see a few persevere, resulting in some sprinkles or a brief shower, but overall most of inland Southcentral will see decreasing chances for precipitation today. However, the coastal zones along the Gulf and Prince William Sound will continue to see these scattered showers persist today and Saturday as the upper low and associated long-wave trough move across the Gulf. Showers may taper briefly before moving back in as the low approaches tonight. By Saturday morning, the low will have moved into the northeastern Gulf...allowing showers to wind down along the coast as off-shore flow takes over. Snow levels will stay fairly consistent around 2500' as the low translates across the Gulf, so will still see rain changing over to snow at higher elevations. A front will move across the Alaska interior Saturday morning. Colder northwesterly flow will help to dry things out, but models are hinting that the front could squeeze out some light precipitation of the Upper Susitna and Copper Basin. However, overall confidence is low (20-40%) that any precipitation out of this frontal passage will amounts to anything too impactful. Cooler temperatures will move in behind this system with low temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s for most of inland Southcentral for Sunday morning. - PP && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Showery conditions will continue across Southwest Alaska, Alaska Peninsula and portions of the central/eastern Bering Sea today as residual low pressure lingers over the area. Rain is expected to be the primary precipitation type during the daytime hours, however, overnight temperatures may dip below freezing, allowing for any precipitation to fall as snow or a rain/snow mix. Small craft winds will persist along the eastern Bering and southern Alaska Peninsula (including waters south) as cold air advection remains in place today. Benign conditions expected through most of the weekend for Southwest Alaska until the next front moves in Sunday afternoon. A gale force front tracking through the Western Bering Sea and Aleutians is expected to continue toward the Central Bering tonight into Saturday morning where it will weaken nearly in place. Behind it, a developing compact low from the North Pacific will track northeast, passing the Adak and Atka area Saturday morning. As it catches up to the degrading front, the features will merge in the Central Bering and continue to press the weakening ridge downstream toward Southwest Alaska. Saturday will be relatively quiet for Southwest Alaska, but by Sunday afternoon, the Bering system will reach the Southwest coast where rain, snow, and south to southeasterly flow returns. KM && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7, Monday through Thursday)... By Monday morning, there is fair confidence (60 to 70%) for a low pressure system, with a depth near 995 mb, to be moving inland into the Kuskokwim Delta, potentially bringing strong onshore winds and wave action to the coast. Given southerly flow continuing to bring in warmer air, rainfall is expected with this system. Additionally, the front of this low is set to break off into a triple-point low spinning up in the western Gulf of Alaska by Monday morning, pushing inland to Southcentral through Monday bringing similar conditions to the northern Gulf Coast. Confidence in increasing with regards to the progression of a stronger low moving into our area south of the Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday morning. By Tuesday morning, this low may be near 960 mb and would work to drive stronger winds along the Alaska Peninsula as well as bring a large swath of rainfall across the area. By Tuesday night/Wednesday morning moderate model agreement suggests the progression of this low pressure system into the northern Gulf of Alaska bringing it's round of active weather to the Southcentral coastline. There is poor model agreement regarding the progression of the low beyond Wednesday, with several solutions weakening the low in the northern Gulf, while others hold on to it's strength. However, generally unsettled weather expected for the region through the long-term period. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Mid and high cloud cover will increase this morning keeping fog and low clouds chances in check. A few showers may work over the mountains and through the terminal, but any rainfall should be light with little to no reduction in visibility. Winds will be under 10 kts and generally out of the north. && $$  199 FXHW60 PHFO 161334 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 334 AM HST Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure system far northwest of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift from west to east over the next few days. This passing system will increase easterly trade winds into the moderate to breezy range lasting into the middle of next week. Brief pulses of enhanced showers are forecast with three passing easterly waves during this time period. Increasing shower trends will favor the windward and mauka areas in the overnight to early morning hours starting tonight and lingering into Tuesday morning. The strongest of these three waves will pass through the islands from late Sunday through late Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Radar shows scattered windward and mauka showers across the state this morning. A large surface high continues to strengthen to our north. Aloft, a weak upper level low to our east will become a trough that stretches from southern CA all the way out to us. The trough will be weak, and apart from a slight increase in instability, we won't see much from it. Several impulses of increased moisture will move toward and over the state, especially the eastern end, over the coming week. The first will move through this afternoon and evening, and reach all islands. The second should move over the area late Sunday through late Monday, boosting showers mainly across the eastern end of the state. Finally, another area may reach us next Thursday, but at this time range confidence is low. Models currently indicate the focus of this one would be on the eastern end. Trade winds will remain moderate to breezy through the coming week, with the a slight increase possible Tuesday evening. A slight weakening may develop next Thursday, but as mentioned in the previous paragraph, at seven days out, confidence in that level of detail is low. Finally, guidence indicates that the upper level trough extending from southern CA over to us may join with energy moving in from the northwest and strengthen toward the middle of next week. It is unclear at this time whether it will develop into a closed low or a stronger trough. Either way, it may draw tropical moisture northward toward the state and present a heavy rain threat. Details should become clearer in a few days. && .AVIATION... A high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will drift slowly eastward, increasing easterly trade wind speeds today. An easterly wave riding into the islands on the trade winds will bring increasing showers spreading from east to west across the islands near the Big Island today then spreading across the state by Saturday. Periods of MVFR conditions and showers will develop over windward mountain areas. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration abv 020 for north and east sections of the Big Island. AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low level turbulence downwind of island terrain. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure far north of the islands will build as it shifts northeast of Hawaii through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui through Saturday, but this may need to be expanded in area as the high building to the north results in strengthening trade winds. Elevated trade winds will persist into early next week. A small northwest swell will continue to fade today as a moderate north-northwest swell arrives. Surf along north and west-facing shores should build quickly today and top out near or slightly above seasonal average during the peak of the swell this afternoon into tonight, then slowly decline Saturday and Sunday as the dropping swell shifts more northerly. A smaller overlapping northwest swell arrives on Sunday which will bolster surf briefly. Both swells fade early next week. A new long-periond south swell will peak today, pushing surf along south-facing shores back above seasonal average through tonight. This swell will slowly decline Saturday through early next week. Surf along east-facing shores will gradually increase today as trade winds strengthen over the region. Expect some wrap from the moderate north-northwest swell Friday afternoon into Saturday. This swell along with developing rough trade wind swell will produce east shore surf above seasonal average Saturday through early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Surface high pressure north of the islands will produce moderate to breezy trade winds for the next few days. RH levels look to remain out of critical fire threshold ranges. The stronger trade winds will mainly impact higher elevation areas with even higher minimum humidity levels. Inversion heights should range from 6,000 to 9,000 feet today. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...Bohlin MARINE...Quesada FIRE WEATHER...Walsh  412 FXUS66 KMFR 161342 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 642 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy winds and low humidities this morning over the ridges and very warm temperatures and very dry conditions this afternoon will bring elevated fire weather conditions today. * A dry cold front will move through Saturday with a cooling trend. * Dry, mild weather expected Sunday. * A stronger low and front approach the coast Sunday night with modest rain chances Monday along the coast and offshore, but low chances for inland areas. && .DISCUSSION...A high pressure ridge remains over the area today. This will bring continued very warm temperatures with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal across inland areas. Coastal areas will trend cooler compared to yesterday though with a light onshore/marine influence. Of concern today will be elevated fire weather conditions due to to very warm, very dry conditions along with breezy to gusty winds (mainly ridges and east side). Very dry conditions along with breezy to gusty easterly winds are occuring over the ridges/upper slopes this morning. These winds will gradually diminish west of the Cascades late this morning and early this afternoon. East to southeast winds will linger into early this afternoon across the southern Oregon Cascades. Then, east of the Cascades, gusty southerly winds will develop this afternoon. Meanwhile, low afternoon humidities are expected across inland areas with single digit RHs possible, mainly for areas east of the Cascades and in Northern California. These conditions today bring elevated fire weather risk, so please be careful to avoid any unnecessary sparks. On Saturday, a dry cold front will move across the area. This will bring cooler temperatures for most areas. A marine push will bring low clouds into northwest portions of the CWA (mainly coastal areas and the Umpqua Basin). Temperatures will trend near normal along the coast and into Douglas County but elsewhere, will be around 10 degrees above normal. There is a potential for breezy winds (with gusts 15 to 25 mph) Saturday late afternoon/early evening. These winds are likely to be highest along the coast and for areas east of the Cascades. Then, on Sunday, models continue to show dry and mild conditions with areas of morning low clouds west of the southern Oregon Cascades. There is a low chance (10-15%) for light rain in Coos and northwest Douglas County Saturday morning. The forecast remains on track for Sunday night into early next week. A low pressure system with a cold front will approach the coast Sunday night. Current model runs continue show the low remaining offshore as it gradually shifts southward off the coast on Monday. This will result in most the rain occuring offshore. Rain chances are around 25-50% for Monday/Monday night from the Cascades west, with highest chances along the coast. Lower rain chances (10-25%) exist east of the Cascades. Tuesday into Wednesday, models continue to show the low headed into southern California. Some of the moisture may wrap around into southeast portions of the CWA but ensembles continue to show significant variability on the exact track of the low and northern extent of the moisture. So, confidence is low. && .AVIATION...16/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the TAF period. The exception will be over the marine waters and localized along the coast where LIFR ceilings in marine stratus are possible this morning. Confidence is higher for the marine waters as offshore flow could keep this layer just offshore this morning. Then as offshore flow ease, expect areas of LIFR to develop Friday evening along the coast. Inland, with gusty southeast winds prevailing over the higher terrain this morning, low level wind shear will remain a concern for the Medford terminal, lasting until about 15-18Z as another strong inversion develops and prevents those winds from reaching the surface. Breezy conditions likely persist in Ashland, however. && .MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Friday, October 16, 2026...Sub-advisory north winds and seas dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells will persist through at least Friday. North winds increase and a new swell arrives around Saturday, building seas higher this weekend. Conditions could become hazardous to small craft again beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday. Then, Monday and Monday night, west swell builds into the area. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$  008 FXUS62 KJAX 161303 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 903 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated Thunderstorms are Possible Across North Central FL this Afternoon and Evening. - Marine & Coastal Hazards this Weekend and Next Week. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents and Rough, High Surf. Wind Gusts of 30-40 mph at Coastal Locations from Saturday through Monday. Gale Watch for All Atlantic Coastal Waters from Saturday through Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River Basin. Significant Beach Erosion Possible at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: A mostly sunny day is forecast for Today, with west southwest flow helping to push temperatures above average. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible over north central FL this afternoon and evening due to diurnal instability, and convergence along the east coast sea breeze. A cold front will move southeast across the area Tonight, with strong high pressure building behind it. A few showers will be possible across NE FL ahead of the front. Winds will increase across the area following the frontal passage. Much drier air will sweep southeast into area overnight, with dewpoints over inland SE GA falling 15 to 20 degrees. Due to the timing of the front, a broad range in low temperatures is forecast, with low 60s over inland SE GA, to the lower 70s along the NE FL coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Northerly winds expected to gust to around 40 mph at Coastal Locations, which would necessitate a wind advisory. - Coastal hazards increase for this weekend, including Gales for marine waters, hazardous surf and rip currents, and beginning stages of elevated tidal water levels. Following the strong cold frontal passage Saturday morning, high pressure will build north of the region driving a surge of strong northerly to northeasterly winds over the local area, especially by the afternoon. Winds expected to range up to 15 to 25 mph with gusts easily reaching 35 mph in a number of areas and localized gusts of 40+ mph which may require a wind advisory. High pressure sitting to the north and northeast will sustain these elevated winds through Sunday night, accompanied by a chance of coastal showers. An overrunning condition does setup for a time on Saturday which will support some patches of rain over southeast parts of the forecast area, but rain amounts will be very light. Temperatures will drop significantly behind the front bringing cooler daytime highs with readings in the 70s on Saturday, and slightly warmer at the coast. Highs Sunday only mid to upper 60s for southeast GA to I-10, and then lower 70s further south. Overnight lows for the weekend will range from the lower 50s inland over southeast GA, and upper 50s to mid 60s elsewhere, mildest in the coastal areas and north central FL. Coastal hazards escalate starting Saturday and persist through Sunday night, featuring high rip current risk and very rough surf, and elevated water levels/possible minor tidal flooding. Gale watches were posted for the marine waters starting Saturday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected Monday through Wednesday. - Below normal temperatures this period. Strong high pressure will remain anchored to the north and northeast driving a prolonged period of elevated onshore flow. Model guidance also shows a low pressure system located well offshore near 35N72W which will be nearly stationary or drift south, and may further enhance and prolong coastal impacts mainly in terms of surf heights. For our area, this translates into continued high risk of rip currents, rough and elevated surf, and minor to moderate beach erosion along the Atlantic coast. Elevated water levels anticipated along the coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and the St Johns River basin mainly in the minor category. Wind will remain breezy to windy, with sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts reaching 35-40 mph along the coast. Winds will begin to taper off by midweek as the high pressure begins to weaken. Rain chances will be isolated to scattered range or about 15-25 percent for northeast FL coast but may reach as far as Highway 301 at times. Drier conditions expected further inland over northeast FL and for southeast GA. Temperatures will be below average during the period, with daytime highs around the lower to mid 70s Monday, trending to the mid to upper 70s mid week. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid 50s inland, then upper 50s to lower 60s coast for Monday, and trending very gradually warmer into mid week as the low level flow slowly veers bringing in more modified air off the Atlantic. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 09Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings of 1,500 - 2,000 feet will then overspread the terminals from north to south after 09Z, with isolated to widely scattered showers possible towards the end of this TAF period. Confidence in timing of shower development during the predawn and early morning hours on Saturday is currently too low to introduce vicinity shower coverage at this time. Light surface winds this morning will generally become west-southwesterly at 5-10 knots after 18Z at the inland terminals, while the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland early this afternoon, shifting surface winds to east or southeasterly around 10 knots at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals by 18Z. Surface winds will then shift to southwesterly after 02Z as speeds gradually diminish. Surface winds will then abruptly shift to northwesterly while increasing to 10-15 knots and gusty before 12Z Saturday, accompanying the arrival of MVFR ceilings. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge over area will weaken Today, as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will move southeast across the area Tonight, with strong high pressure building behind it. A period of elevated winds and building seas will be expected from Saturday through much of next week, with gales likely beginning on Saturday and possibly continuing into Monday night. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk Today. High risk of rip currents with rough surf from Saturday through much of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... - PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS TODAY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. - AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION VALUES THIS WEEKEND. - ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. Southwest to west winds develop today ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the area tonight. Moderate to strong north to northeast winds develop this weekend behind the cold front as high pressure builds north of the area. Elevated winds are expected along the Atlantic coast of SE GA and NE FL beginning late tonight, with the elevated winds persisting into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers for coastal locations through the weekend and next week. For today, Good to High dispersions develop over SE GA ahead of the frontal boundary, with Fair to good dispersions expected over NE FL. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, ICWW, and St. Johns river basin this weekend and early next week as strong northeasterly winds develop. Some significant beach erosion is possible by Sunday, especially coastal northeast FL, as seas for the nearshore waters build to the 10-15 ft range through Monday night while southeast GA nearshore seas mainly in the 8-13 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 86 61 70 50 / 0 10 10 0 SSI 86 67 74 58 / 0 20 20 0 JAX 88 68 74 57 / 0 20 20 0 SGJ 87 70 76 64 / 10 20 30 10 GNV 89 69 75 57 / 10 20 20 0 OCF 89 71 76 59 / 30 20 30 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Monday night for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$