042 FXUS66 KLOX 161438 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 738 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...15/1247 PM. A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind will bring widespread strong winds and critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down is expected Sunday with a chance of widespread rain by Tuesday or Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...16/738 AM. ***UPDATE*** Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies across the area this morning. Currently, northeast winds, gusting between 45 and 70 MPH, are observed across Ventura and LA counties. Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, everything is on track. Current LAX-DAG gradient is -7.4 mb LAX-BFL is -3.8 mb and will likely strengthen a bit this morning. So, moderate to strong Santa Ana winds will continue across Ventura/LA counties with gusts of 80+ MPH at the windiest spots in the mountains (Magic Mountain Truck Trail, etc.) and widespread gusts peaking in the 45-65 MPH across the coasts/valleys. Across Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, winds will be weaker, but still will be gusts in the 30-45 mph range across the mountains and foothills. So, current suite of HIGH WIND WARNINGs and WIND ADVISORIES look great across Ventura/LA counties. Along with the wind, temperatures will be a concern today. Highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s will be common across the coasts and coastal valleys today. Based on Heat Risk grids, moderate to locally major heat risk is expected today across the coastal plain. Therefore, HEAT ADVISORIES will remain in effect today and will continue through Saturday. Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. So, no significant updates are expected. ***From Previous Discussion*** We are on track for the longest and strongest period of Santa Ana winds today, especially at lower elevations (coastal valleys to coast) with the strongest cooridor of winds sliding a bit north into a more traditional Santa Ana setup. High wind warnings and strong wind advisories look good for much of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties with peak winds likely in the 50 to 70 mph range through late morning or early afternoon before gradually weakening. Breezy east to northeast winds with gusts of 25 to 45 mph will also extend to most other areas that do not typically get much winds in this type of setup. Red Flag Warnings also continue to be in effect for a large portion of Southwest California. Please take care with fire ignition sources. Moderate-to-high heat risk is equally concerning, especially near the coast with highs again in the 90s to near 100. Temperatures will shoot up quickly this morning and stay quite warm well into the evening, especially where breezy winds continue, increasing the duration of the heat, which is particularly concerning for those without air conditioning or that spend significant time outdoors. A Heat Advisory continues near the coast through Saturday. On Saturday, upper level support and surface gradients weaken but still expecting a windy day, albeit probably 15-30 mph weaker than Today. And with the offshore flow and cold advection weakening as well temperatures at the coast should cool at least a few degrees while valleys and other interior areas either remain the same or warm slightly. A digging trough from the northwest and the return of onshore flow will bring significant cooling and moistening trends along with breezy northwest to onshore winds to the region. Daytime highs by Monday will mostly be in the 70s with a sprinkling of low 80s for warmer valleys. Signs of potentially inclement weather are likely by Monday night in the form of increasing mid to high clouds. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...16/403 AM. There is increasing confidence in rain chances next week, though low confidence on the details. Virtually all the solutions indicate at least some light rain, most likely starting Wednesday, but could start as early as Tuesday afternoon or as late as Wednesday evening. Rain amounts are even more scattered but mostly around a half inch area-wide. We may not have a good handle on this system until early next week as our guidance struggles with storms coming from the northwest, especially closed, cut-off low pressure systems. There are more than a few solutions that bring an inch or more so there is a small potential for heavy rain and flood concerns. && .AVIATION...16/0822Z. At 06Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. High confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites through the period. Moderate confidence in direction/strength of northeast- east winds, gusts may be off by 020-030 degrees and 10-15 knots respectively. KLAX...High confidence in 06Z in CAVU conditions through the period. Moderate confidence in winds, and there is the potential for an extended period of gusty easterly winds from about 17Z to 22Z, with gusts up to 25 kt. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU conditions through the TAF period. Moderate confidence in winds as timing may be off by 2-3 hours and strength could be +/- 10 knots. && .MARINE...16/122 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across PZZ670/673. For PZZ676, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds today. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds across all of the Outer Waters with seas hovering around SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 40-50% chance of SCA level northeast winds this morning. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours with seas hovering near SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60-70% chance of GALE force winds from Ventura to Santa Monica with a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere (especially across the San Pedro Channel). For tonight and Saturday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Point Mugu to Santa Monica with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Sunday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas except for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354>358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 342-345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe/Thompson AVIATION...RM/Phillips/RAT MARINE...RAT/Ciliberti SYNOPSIS...MW/Lewis weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  405 FXUS63 KBIS 161445 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 945 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low humidity and increasing southerly winds will result in near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening over far southwest North Dakota. - Dry and mild over most locations this weekend through the middle of next week. - Unsettled weather possibly returns late next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 It's a cold morning across western and central North Dakota, with some locations over western North Dakota having dropped as low as 15 degrees overnight. More broadly, lows have been in the lower 20s to lower 30s across much of the forecast area, with all but the far southern James River Valley dropping to or below freezing. The Freeze Warning across the west and much of central North Dakota has been extended through 10Z (10 AM CDT / 09 AM MDT) this morning, and will be allowed to expire on time as temperatures have begun rising following the sun. Otherwise, no major adjustments to the forecast were performed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Going forecast remains in good shape as northwest winds continue to diminish. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current surface analysis places low over the eastern Great Lakes region while high settles through the eastern Montana/Wyoming and the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis places trough over the upper Midwest, while ridge stretches from the northern Sierra northward into the Canadian Rockies. Over our area, winds continue to gradually diminish from west to east with the high sliding through. In addition, where winds have tapered off and skies have cleared over our northern/western areas, temperatures have dipped below freezing, thus the Freeze Warning remains in places. For today, surface high settles southeast with return flow setting up over western parts of our area, with southerly winds increasing. Upper ridge pushes east as a notable wave over the northern Pacific approaches shore. This will bring clearing skies and dry conditions to our area. Over far southwest North Dakota, humidity values are expected to dip into the 20s, which combined with the expected southerly winds will result in near critical fire weather conditions. On Saturday, upper ridge pushes over our area while aforementioned Pacific wave quickly passes over the Canadian Rockies pushing into the western Canadian Prairies late day. Surface low closes off over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan in response, with winds shifting southwesterly over our area. Temperatures will climb to about 10 to 20 degrees above average, warmest over the southwest where highs in the mid 70s are expected, with mainly lower 60s to lower 70s elsewhere. Upper wave continues its eastward push flattening out the ridge, while a modest cold front passes through our area as surface low works its way towards Hudson Bay late Saturday night into early Sunday. Though conditions remain dry, temperatures will be cooler with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Zonal flow remains in place to start the work week, with flow turning southwesterly towards mid-week as a Pacific low drops down along the West Coast. Conditions remain dry, with a very gradual warming trend over our area. Guidance then suggests that the low shifts easterly and opens up late week. Though the timing of this is a bit variable, it does bring precipitation chances to the forecast late week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 945 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Pockets of MVFR ceilings over far southwest and south central North Dakota continue to quickly erode this morning, with VFR ceilings and visibility then expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Southerly winds will be on the increase this afternoon over western North Dakota, spreading east this evening. In addition, low level wind shear is possible this evening into the overnight hours, particularly around the KMOT terminal. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam/JJS DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS  852 FXUS66 KMTR 161457 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 757 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into Saturday before cooler, below normal weather returns Sunday into next week - Critical to near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast due to very dry conditions and offshore flow through Saturday - Pattern change expected early to mid next week with periods of breezy onshore winds and light, accumulating rain && .UPDATE... Issued at 757 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The Red Flag Warning continues through 11 AM for the North Bay Interior Mountains due to moderate offshore winds and critically dry conditions. Winds ease across the higher elevations by this afternoon, yet conditions will remain critical to near critical through Saturday due to low relative humidity. The forecast remains on track for today to be the warmest day of the week as high pressure dominates the weather pattern with areas of Moderate HeatRisk, especially near the coast. Interior areas and places in and around the Santa Cruz region will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s. As mentioned earlier, portions of the Santa Cruz Mountains and souther Santa Clara Valley (such as Morgan Hill and Gilroy) have the potential to reach the upper 90s. Coastal areas will remain mild to very warm in the 70s to mid 80s. No updates currently planed for the ongoing forecast. RGass && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (Today and tonight) A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 11 AM Friday for the North Bay Interior Mountains due to moderate offshore winds and critically dry conditions overnight. Minimal to no overnight humidity recovery is expected with humidity values between 15 to 25% expected. Winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains have picked up across the highest peaks and will spread into the remainder of the NB Interior Mountains tonight. Offshore gusts are expected to peak between 20 to 30 mph with stronger gusts possible across the highest ridgelines. Gusts between 40 to 60 mph have been observed across the highest peaks (3500+ ft) in northern Sonoma and Napa counties. As offshore winds pick up across the rest of the NB Interior Mountains, humidity values will drop with rapid fire spread possible should a fire start. Winds are expected to decrease by late morning with the Red Flag Warning set to expire at 11 AM. Although the winds will have decreased, very dry conditions (RH 10-20%) will persist through the rest of the day with poor overnight recoveries expected Friday into Saturday. As such, near critical fire weather conditions will continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday. If you are participating in any activity involving flames outdoors, be very careful and do not allow sparks/embers to escape. Listen to all guidance from local officials. Upper level ridging continues with widespread above normal temperatures and Moderate HeatRisk peaking today. Minimal relief is expected along the coast due to upper level ridging mixing out the marine layer. Interior highs peak in the upper 80s to low 90s with coastal highs in the 70s to low 80s. Portions of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the southern Santa Clara Valley may reach the upper 90s. Expect hot conditions and patchy Moderate HeatRisk to continue into Saturday although a few degrees cooler than on Friday. If you're not a fan of hot weather, you're in luck as a pattern change is expected Sunday into next week (see Long Term discussion). && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) Temperatures return to more seasonal temperatures by Sunday as upper level ridging is replaced by broad troughing. High temperatures cool into the 70s to low 80s across the interior while the coast drops back into the 50s to 60s thanks to the return of the marine layer. Upper level troughing impacts become more pronounced over the course of the next week as a deep upper level low becomes cut-off from the jet stream and lingers along the Central/Southern California coastline through late next week. At the same time, a surface low pressure system originating from the Gulf of Alaska will move southwards along the California coast next week. This system will bring a much cooler airmass into the region and see a return of fall temperatures in the 60s to 70s and morning lows in the 40s to low 50s. Recent guidance has trended towards the low staying offshore rather than moving onshore next week. The current forecast shows the highest rain totals along the Santa Lucia Range and Santa Cruz Mountains where totals are between a quarter to half an inch. For the lower elevations expect up to a tenth of an inch across the Bay Area and up to a quarter of an inch across the Central Coast. Periods of gusty onshore winds are likely along the coast, the higher elevations, and across mountain gaps/passes next week. Winds don't look to be widespread enough to necessitate a Wind Advisory but favored windy locations (Altamont Pass) will definitely be gusty. Another item to watch is the potential for thunderstorms with this system. NBM guidance has consistently maintained a low chance (<15%) of thunderstorms across the region. In favor of thunderstorms is the fact that this is a cold core low which is bringing in cooler air and may be more favorable for ice crystal development/eventual lightning development. Anti-thunderstorm development is the new more offshore track of the low which keeps the best MUCAPE and CAPE values offshore. This may be a setup where we see some sort of convective activity over the marine environment but it doesn't make it onto land (if the current track holds). Bottom line: expect a pattern change to occur next week with below normal temperatures, potential for light rain, breezy to gusty onshore winds, and a low potential for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Another night of VFR conditions as the picture from space is clear over the Bay Area and Central Coast. The challenge for this TAF cycle is capturing the winds, with offshore flow setting up this morning. Along the coasts, we should see a push of diurnally driven onshore winds for a few hours this afternoon. Winds may be more light and variable in some spots tonight, though weak offshore winds are expected to return. As noted by the prior meteorologist, we'll need to keep an eye open for KHAF tomorrow morning. In these offshore flow set ups winds can sometimes align for the E to NE and increase as they surface toward the ocean. Vicinity of SFO...No major changes as offshore winds set up this morning, generally around 10kt or less. Then this afternoon, onshore winds return lingering into the evening. Tonight, winds may be more light and variable. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Offshore winds are expected for through the morning with onshore winds by late morning or early afternoon. Onshore flow should continue through the early evening, before another round of offshore winds returns late evening and into early Saturday morning. VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 258 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail over the coastal waters today and become moderate to fresh on Saturday. These winds holdinto the early portion of the week. The increasing winds will bring a fresh swell and steeper wind waves. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 451 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The Red Flag Warning for the North Bay Interior Mountains remains in effect this morning due to moderate offshore winds and very dry conditions. This included the very poor overnight humidity recovery between 13 and 23 percent. The Red Flag Warning is set to expire at 11AM, as winds decrease. Conditions will remain very dry, with RH values around 10-20% forecast for the rest of the day and poor overnight recoveries tonight into Saturday. These conditions, combined with warmer weather, will lead to near critical weather conditions for the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday. We will begin to see a reprieve in conditions Saturday into Sunday, as the upper level pattern shifts to broad troughing. Temperatures become more seasonal and we should start to winds become onshore, improving RH conditions as well. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  340 FXAK67 PAJK 161417 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 617 AM AKDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Persistent moderate to heavy rain ends through Friday morning, replaced by intermittent rain showers through Friday night. - Windy conditions continues through Friday across the northern panhandle, with a Wind Advisory in effect for Skagway with gusts up to 45 mph. - Brief break in rain possible Sunday night into Monday, however another front and round of rain and wind push across the Gulf by Monday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/ Active period of weather continues through early Thursday morning as a strong front continues to push inland. Overall forecast has remained on track, with our first atmospheric river rainfall over the last 24 hours. Moderate to heavy rain has persisted through the overnight period into early Friday morning from Juneau southward down the panhandle, with constant rain rates around 0.2 an inch per hour, some areas exceeding 0.3 inch per hour rates. Highest rainfall totals over the last 24 hours with the previous two systems combined is around 4 to 6 inches near Ketchikan and Metlakatla, near 8 inches at the Silvis Powerhouse around 800ft, and around 2 to 4 inches for communities across the northern panhandle. Moving into early Friday afternoon, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will gradually come to an end from West to East across the panhandle, with periods of rain showers and brief breaks in between expected through Friday night. As this front pushes inland, still some concern for isolated thunderstorm development across the Gulf coast and southern panhandle through this afternoon, however not anticipating widespread severe weather at this time. With any potential thunderstorm, be wary of erratic winds, a few lightning strikes, and limited visibilities due to moderate to heavy rain. Lastly, as we move into the latter half of October, precipitation type becomes more of an issue (AKA will it be rain, snow, or both?) and more prevalent. With this latest batch of rain moving through the panhandle, did add in a few hours of a rain/snow mix or non-accumulating snow at the higher elevations of Skagway near White Pass through Friday night, albeit chances remain low. Overnight, strong wind gusts occurred overnight, mainly over the southern panhandle. Gusts around 60 mph were observed over Hydaburg, Ketchikan, and Annette Island. As the front continues to push inland, periods of gusty winds will follow. Strongest winds throughout the rest of today will be near Skagway with gusts to around 45 mph. These strong gusts will diminish through this evening. .LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/... For the weekend, the active weather pattern will persist at least through Saturday, as lingering low pressure in the northern Gulf will keep onshore flow, mainly cloudy skies and rain showers across much of the Panhandle. As this low weakens, another low passing well to the south will allow a high pressure ridge to build over the Gulf into SEAK. This transition is expected to bring a brief lull in rain showers later Sunday. The break will be short-lived as another low and front quickly swing through the Gulf into SEAK on Monday, likely reaching Yakutat by the afternoon and then swinging through the panhandle Monday night into early Tuesday. With the quick progression of this system, overall rain amounts will be limited, although a brief period of moderate to heavy rain expected with the frontal passage. Another large, gale force to potential storm force, low will lift northeast into the Gulf of Alaska on Monday night into Tuesday, sending a another front and deep moisture feed toward SEAK. While models agree on the overall general pattern, differences in timing and strength of this low and attendant front still persist. Despite model differences, the low is expected to stall over northern Gulf and weaken by midweek. However, the prolonged onshore flow and a good potential for moderate to heavy rain persists behind the initial front through midweek. Winds will begin to pick up on Monday night as the front approaches, with breezy to windy southerlies ahead and with the frontal passage Tuesday, with gales possible for Clarence and northern Lynn. Cooler daytime temps will prevail with the persistent onshore flow, mainly cloudy skies and rain, with highs generally in the mid to upper 40s. Nighttime lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. && .AVIATION.../through 12z Saturday/...Conditions across the panhandle continue to be less than favorable for flying this morning. Ceilings range from VFR down to IFR with visibilities generally remaining VFR to MVFR with the rain and wind. Periods of heavy rain will continue through this morning which will aid in reduced ceilings and visibilities. Winds are also elevated this morning, especially across the southern panhandle where gusts have been getting up to 40-50 kt. These gusts should diminish later this morning as the system affecting us moves north into Canada. When this happens, winds should start to trend down for the southern panhandle but will increase for places such as Skagway and Haines. The persistent rain will also come to an end but rain showers will be likely with the continued onshore flow. Some of these showers could be heavier at times and might reduce ceilings and visibilities. && .MARINE... Outside Waters: Overall wind speeds have diminished across the gulf as the front has moved inland this morning. Southwesterly winds around 15 to 20 kts continue with elevated seas around 9 to 12 ft. Significant sea heights will remain elevated as the next low pressure system begins to move eastward into the gulf. This next low will actually cause seas to build to around 10 to 15 ft late Friday into Saturday with highest waves over the central gulf. Around the same time, winds will increase to around 25 to 30 kts remaining southwesterly, except for the far northern gulf that will become east-southeasterly Saturday morning. The low causing these slightly increased winds will then weaken late Saturday into Sunday, allowing for winds and waves to relax. Looking ahead, the next system arrives late Monday into Tuesday, bringing strong winds and elevated seas. Inside Waters: A strong front continues to move across the panhandle early this morning. This has brought increased winds across the inside waters. Currently strongest winds are occurring over Stephens Passage with winds around 25 to 30 kts. As this front continues to push inland, Lynn Canal will start to see increased winds to around 30 to 35 kts. These stronger winds will last longer over Northern Lynn Canal, remaining into Sunday evening. Central and northern channels winds will continue to remain slightly elevated, around 15 to 20 kts through Saturday as another low pressure system tracks eastward into the gulf. Winds across the area will then diminish Sunday as that second low pressure system weakens. Looking ahead, the next system arrives late Monday into Tuesday, once again bringing increased winds across the inner channels. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. Wind Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ326-329. Flood Watch until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ326>330-332. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ327-328. High Wind Warning until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-036. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-031-033>035-053-641>644-651- 652-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...NM LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...SF MARINE...EAB Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  500 FXUS62 KKEY 161447 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1047 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An extended period of wet and windy conditions will develop across the Florida Keys this weekend, and possibly into early next week, as a cold front arrives on Saturday. - A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required by Saturday night or Sunday for portions or all of the Keys coastal waters. - Uncertainty remains high regarding rain chances for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current water vapor imagery and CIMSS steering products depict a broad anticyclone settling to the east of the Bahamas and a mid to upper-level trough beginning to deepen over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Ahead of the trough, current surface analysis depicts a cold front extending southwest from a surface low over Ontario through the Ohio Valley and into the Lower MS River Valley. This front will continue to surge towards the southeast over the next 24 hours as the trough deepens across the Eastern CONUS. With the aforementioned ridge becoming situated to our east, deep southeast flow will continue to advect tropical moisture across the Keys. We currently have isolated showers in our surrounding waters being generated by weak speed convergence in the southeasterly low- level flow. As the mid-level trough axis nudges into the Gulf tonight, synoptic scale lift will begin to arrive across our forecast area while the Atlantic ridge becomes dampened. This will promote an increased coverage of showers and storms through the overnight hours into Saturday morning. Our forecast trend of Chance PoPs this afternoon increasing to Likely PoPs by tomorrow seems to be on par with current analysis. The cold front will move southeast through the Gulf tomorrow morning and should be knocking on our doorstep by tomorrow evening. Models suggest the mid-upper level trough will be slower to pass through, so the Florida Keys will remain downstream of troughing tomorrow with winds set to begin increasing by tomorrow evening across the southeastern Gulf waters as the front moves in. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the waters surrounding the Florida Keys. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes will gradually slacken this afternoon as the Atlantic high weakens. A strong cold front will begin to track southeast through the Gulf tonight through tomorrow morning. It will approach the Florida Keys waters Saturday evening promoting higher chances for showers and storms as well as rapidly freshening northeast breezes to moderate to fresh, occasionally strong, by Saturday night into Sunday. Small craft advisories will likely be required for part or all of the Florida Keys waters by Sunday. Rain chances are forecast to decrease by early next week as the front moves south of the area. However, winds will likely remain elevated behind the front due to a strong pressure gradient. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Isolated showers will pass near the terminals this afternoon as moisture continues to increase. Coverage will be limited, but included VCSH in the TAF. A cold front will begin to track southeast through the Gulf tonight ahead of a positively tilted trough. This will promote increasing rain chances and potential for aviation impacts towards the end of this TAF period. For now, will stick with VCSH after 06Z, but prevailing SHRA may be added in later TAF issuances. Sfc winds will remain from the E around 5-10 kts, decreasing to near 5 kts after 00Z and beginning a slight shift to the NE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 7987 77 / 30 60 60 90 Marathon 88 80 86 78 / 30 50 50 80 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DM Aviation/Nowcasts....DM Data Acquisition.....DM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  506 FXUS62 KTAE 161405 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1005 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1000 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Another round of fog is likely again this morning across much of the area. - A Gale Warning is in effect over our waters for winds up to 30-40kts for Saturday. A Wind Advisory over land for wind gusts up to 35 mph in the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama for weakened and vulnerable trees and structures damaged from Hurricane Isaias. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 continue today, then turning sharply cooler this weekend following Friday's cold front resulting in highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows in the 50s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The main change to today's forecast was to increase rain chances slightly across the western portions of the FL Panhandle to account for an offshore band of convection moving NE near Mobile Bay. Some of this activity looks to encroach into the aforementioned location by this afternoon as from much-anticipated cold front continues its eastward track across the MS Valley. Added a slight chance of thunder as well given the lightning seen on GLM. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today will start out similarly to yesterday. Patchy to areas of fog during the early morning hours through daybreak can be expected. Fog may be dense at times, which could result in a Dense Fog Advisory later this morning. Light westerly winds are expected this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Later tonight, a strong cold front will approach the region. Winds will quickly shift from the northwest to northerly and increase to 20-25 mph sustained with gusts up to 35 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Eastern Florida Panhandle through the day Saturday. Due to the ongoing clean-up efforts following Hurricane Isaias, the Wind Advisory also extends inland for our Central Time Zone counties into SE Alabama for precautionary reasons to emphasize the elevated wind threat that may impact weakened structures and trees. Temperatures will noticeably change with Saturday's highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Precipitation is not expected with the cold front; however there is a slight chance for showers in the extreme southeast Big Bend Friday night into Saturday, prior to the front's arrival. The next system that we will need to monitor during the short term is the potential for a coastal low developing off the Mid- Atlantic Coast. While it won't directly impact our area, it has the potential to either keep us drier and sunnier (track closer to the Mid- Atlantic) or keep us cloudy, cooler and misty (track farther off the coast). So that'll be something to monitor as we go through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The overall upper level trough associated with Friday's cold front will remain over the region through the weekend. This will keep the cool temperatures and dry air for the next few days. Highs will slowly warm into the upper 70s to low 80s by the end of the period, with overnight lows remaining in the 50s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Patchy fog is developing over portions of the area and have kept mention of MVFR vsbys in the TAFs this morning. Today will mainly be VFR with light southwest winds. A cold front will blast through the area tonight with winds quickly clocking around to the northwest and becoming gusty with speeds 15G25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tranquil boating conditions continue for today through this afternoon. Tonight, a strong cold front will push through the waters, sharply turning our winds northerly and increasing to Gales. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Warning with gusty winds up to 40 kts and seas will sharply rise to 5-8 feet, and up to 10 feet in our offshore waters by Saturday. The winds and seas will remain elevated through the weekend and into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High dispersions for districts north of I-10 this afternoon with transport winds around 10-15 mph out of the west. Later tonight, a strong cold front will rush in. Winds will shift northwesterly to northerly, and increasing to around 20-25 mph overnight through the day Saturday with gusts approaching 40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for early Saturday morning in our Central Time Zone districts through the early evening hours. There is a slight chance for light showers ahead of the front late Friday night into Saturday morning. Healthy/moderate dispersions are forecast for Saturday afternoon with a few pockets in the Big Bend region of high dispersions. MinRH values following the frontal passage will fall into the mid to upper 30%s for the afternoon hours, yet remain above critical. Recent soil moisture contents should keep the region out of critical fire weather concerns; however we will be monitoring the wind and gusts as fuels could start drying out through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Our rivers that are in Action stage are continuing on a downward trend. Little to no rain expected for the next several days. No further flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 62 72 53 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 86 59 72 55 / 10 20 0 0 Dothan 86 54 70 50 / 10 10 0 0 Albany 88 56 71 50 / 0 10 0 0 Valdosta 88 61 72 51 / 0 10 0 0 Cross City 89 66 75 55 / 0 10 10 0 Apalachicola 84 64 72 57 / 0 20 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ007>013-108-112. GA...None. AL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ735. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ UPDATE...IG3 SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  437 FXUS61 KLWX 161420 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1020 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Extended the Coastal Flood Advisory for Annapolis until 11PM EDT tonight. Issued an additional Coastal Flood Advisory for Alexandria until 2PM EDT today. See the Tides & Coastal Flood section below for more information. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A strong cold front brings gusty winds, potential for severe weather, and below average temperatures. - 2) Dry conditions through next week with temperatures returning to mid-October normals. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front brings gusty winds, potential for severe weather, and below average temperatures. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a potent, positively-tilted trough stretching from the Great Lakes down towards the Great Plains tracking eastward throughout the day today. At the surface, the trough pushes a strong cold front across the forecast area this afternoon and into the evening. Clouds may briefly clear for a period late this morning and afternoon before additional clouds move in from the incoming cold front later today. Highs today rise into the 80s for most with higher elevations staying in the 70s. With warm conditions and sunny skies, a line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the passing cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the area east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctins and north of US-50/I-66 in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather, driven primarily by a risk of damaging wind gusts. The highest probabilities are in the vicinity of NE MD (30% probs). Additionally, a quick QLCS tornado is possible, mainly in NE MD, where SPC also has a 2% tornado risk. Precipitation lingers behind the cold front as the upper trough pivots overhead tonight. Gusty winds remain possible beginning this evening and persisting through Saturday. Winds will likely remain elevated across most of the area, although the higher elevations along the Alleghenies may have the highest peak gusts (between 30 and 40 mph). All areas are expected to remain below Wind Advisory criteria, although a few isolated gusts to near 45 mph are possible along the highest ridges. Noticeably cooler temperatures rush in behind the front with high temperatures on Saturday being approximately 25-30 degrees colder compared to today. Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s across the forecast area with overnight lows dropping into the 30s to low 40s. Frost/Freeze headlines are likely for early Sunday morning, mainly west of I-95 where winds will be lower. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions through next week with temperatures returning to mid-October normals. Heading into next week, high pressure remains overhead through the middle of the week. A dry and benign weather pattern is expected during this time with near normal temperatures for mid-October. Although several global ensemble members depict a coastal low forming off the Mid-Atlantic shore early next week, most members maintain dry and seasonable weather. If this low pressure system were to move closer to the coast, chances for precipitation could change next week, but confidence is low. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR to IFR ceilings continue through this morning before conditions improve quickly to VFR. A strong cold front crosses the terminals this afternoon and into this evening, bringing a chance for thunderstorms, gusty winds and a wind shift. Sub-VFR conditions are possible during storms. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds as the primary threat. Low clouds are possible again tonight with VFR conditions returning Saturday. For the winds, southwest winds this morning shift to northwestin the wake of the cold front. Winds remain out of the northwest on Saturday, gusting 20 to 30 knots. Winds diminish on Sunday with VFR conditions expected. VFR conditions are expected to persist for all terminals at the beginning of next week. Light northeasterly wind on Monday shift northerly by Tuesday. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories are in effect across all waters with S winds gusting 20 knots. A strong cold front crosses the waters this afternoon and into the evening, bringing gusty W/NW winds and a chance for thunderstorms. Special Marine Warnings are possible as storms cross the waters later today. Winds shift to northwesterly behind the front tonight and increase with gusts around 35 knots. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for late tonight through Saturday for the wider waters. Winds shift to northeast on Sunday and are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Wind gusts remain below SCA criteria on Monday with light northeasterly winds. Northerly winds could approach SCA criteria on Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Southerly flow has resulted in rising water levels this morning, with threshold minor flooding at Annapolis and Alexandria. Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for these sites until 11PM and 2PM EDT, respectively. Havre de Grace could come close to minor, as well. A cold front will shift winds to the west and northwest resulting in decreasing water levels this evening. At this time, Annapolis is forecasted to reach minor flooding again in the next tide cycle, and Alexandria and Havre de Grace could become close as well. Will continue to monitor and issue additional advisories as necessary. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ008. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ054. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ532>534-537-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...AVS/DHOF/SRT/KVH AVIATION...AVS/SRT/KVH MARINE...AVS/SRT/KVH