235 FXUS64 KAMA 161758 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Windy conditions continue today with gusts up to 45 mph expected. - Freezing temperatures are likely across most of the combined Panhandles Saturday morning. Frost development is also expected areawide. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The surface pressure gradient remains tight today as a cold airmass settles in and cold air continues to push southward. Strong, northerly flow will keep highs bound to the 50s today. Wind gusts in some areas this afternoon could get as high as 45 mph, but are more likely to stay in the 30-40 mph range. Tonight, a surface high moves across the southern High Plains and will sharply drop wind speeds. This combined with clear skies will lead to radiational cooling across the CWA. Freezing temperatures and frost development are expected as a result. The NBM and HiRes models suggest temperatures should bottom out in the mid to upper 20s across the north, while the south will be in the low to mid 30s. High pressure does not stay settled over the region. Later in the afternoon on Saturday, a surface low will setup over southeast CO. As a result, wind speeds will ramp up in our northwest zones. However, the wind direction will return to southwesterly flow across the whole area. Highs tomorrow will increase to the upper 50s and 60s, with mid to upper 60s more likely where winds are strongest in the north. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Long range models are still honing in on the details of our next impactful upper level system. A deepening trough in the northern Pacific will eventually transitions south into the western CONUS. Before then, a weak cutoff low will move into the Plains and aid in moisture advection and create positive vorticity in our CWA for the start of the new workweek. Since this first system is weaker and further west than previous model runs, PoPs Tuesday and Wednesday are decreasing in the Panhandles and are more focused on the states to our west. The main system is now not expected to impact the High Plains until later in the week and into next weekend. The current NBM and LREF ensemble members show increasing rain chances Thursday onward, but there are still a lot of uncertainties regarding QPF. The latest ensemble guidance has higher chances for 24 hour QPF less than 0.1" and much lower chances for 24 hour QPF greater than 0.5" for the late week. Of course, with the highest impacts from this system more likely 7 days out, there still time for the details to become more resolved concerning this system's potential. Rangel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours at all sites. Strong winds also prevail at the terminals this afternoon, but they will become light and variable after sunset. Light winds are expected through the remainder of the 18Z period. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>014- 016>018-317. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ015-019-020. OK...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...55  833 FXUS63 KTOP 161711 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A blustery and much cooler day is in store for today. - There is increasing confidence in frost with potential freeze conditions late tonight into Saturday morning. Freeze Watch remains in effect across northern portions of the area with a Frost Advisory issued elsewhere. - Temperatures warm back up into next week with low rain chances returning late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The upper air pattern early this morning shows a trough axis extending from Ontario through the Upper Midwest into KS, a ridge pushing into the PNW, and a weaker low over SoCal and the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. At the surface, low pressure has moved into the Great Lakes region with its cold front extending into the Lower MS River Valley, while high pressure dominates the western half of the CONUS. This puts us firmly within CAA as northwest winds remain breezy. Winds will increase during the daytime hours today as mixing commences, gusting 30-40mph at times while sustained at 15-25mph. Stratus clouds can be seen upstream on satellite with some wrap- around low-level moisture behind the departing system, so between that and the colder air mass, highs are only forecast to top out in the low to mid 50s today. Skies should clear out mid to late afternoon and winds should diminish by sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes and mixing subsides. With the sfc high moving directly overhead tonight into Saturday morning, this sets the stage for a good radiational cooling scenario. NBM morning lows sit around the 25th percentile of all guidance, which seems reasonable for this setup. Looking at the range of models, still think that the area for the going Freeze Watch pretty well captures where temperatures have at least a 50% chance of reaching or falling just below freezing. In collaborating with neighboring offices, opted to leave the watch in place for now and issue the Frost Advisory elsewhere as those areas are likely to fall to the low to mid 30s. The colder temperatures look short-lived with a warming trend taking shape the rest of the weekend into next week. The sfc high moves east Saturday afternoon with the upper ridge moving in as the low to our southwest stays cut off. This favors a return to southwest flow in the low levels and eventually aloft, helping temperatures to warm to the upper 50s Saturday and eventually the 60s and 70s early next week. By Wednesday and Thursday, the upper pattern becomes more amplified with a deepening trough on the Pacific coast and the ridge strengthening its hold over the Southern and Central Plains. Some low 80s return to the forecast by that point. Dry weather dominates most of next week with low rain chances returning late Thursday into Friday as the western trough approaches. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Stratus is expected to remain VFR and will scatter this afternoon, giving way to clear skies by tonight. Gusty north-northwest winds will also subside this evening, becoming calm overnight and Saturday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ026-KSZ037- KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Teefey  971 FXUS65 KFGZ 161712 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1012 AM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry, cool, and windy weather will continue today. Saturday remains cool with less wind. A series of storm systems will impact the region starting Saturday night and continuing through most of next week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms at times along with cool temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure has developed over the Great Basin, with a weak low cutting off near the northern Baja coast. This has created strong easterly pressure gradients, and very gusty east to northeast winds in the favored higher terrain and downslope regions. Some of the strongest winds of the event are expected a bit later this morning through early afternoon in these areas, including the Flagstaff region and eventually the Little Colorado River Valley where gusts of 40-55 mph are expected. Gradients will slowly weaken later tonight into Saturday morning, though there will still be gusty winds at times through at least mid day Saturday. By Saturday evening through Monday, the low off the Baja is forecast to weaken and move slowly northeastward, allowing for some moisture to the south to get pulled in toward our area. There will be a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms at times through this period, especially over higher terrain. Rainfall totals through Monday look light for most areas, with some localized 0.50" amounts in heavier showers. Tuesday through Thursday - a deeper low pressure system is forecast to develop off the California coast by Tuesday and then slowly move eastward across our region through the end of the week. The result will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms at times through the period. Some deeper moisture could be drawn into the system toward Wednesday and Thursday. The latest NBM probabilities of 0.50" or greater rainfall from Wed AM to Fri AM are 50-70% along the higher terrain upslope regions, with 1.00" probabilities in the 30-50% range. Cooler temperatures and gusty south/southwest winds are also expected as this system moves in. && .AVIATION...Friday 16/18Z through Saturday 17/18Z...VFR expected. NE-E winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts through 02Z, then decreasing to 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts. OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/18Z through Monday 19/18Z...Mainly VFR expected. E winds 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Saturday, becoming light and variable through the end of the period. Increasing clouds on Saturday, with ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA possible Saturday night onward. Brief MVFR in heavier showers. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Cool with gusty conditions. Winds are northeast through east 15-25 mph with gusts 35-45 mph tonight through this afternoon. Locally gustier winds up to 55 mph possible along/southwest of terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino Counties. Winds gradually diminish tonight, then become east through southeast 10-20 mph on Saturday. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives by Saturday evening. Min RH is 15-35% each day. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. Sunday through Tuesday...Chance for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Sunday, with chances increasing and spreading to most of northern Arizona on Monday and Tuesday. Winds are light and variable on Sunday, becoming south 5-15 mph on Monday, then south through southwest 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004- 006>008-012>015-037-038. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  557 FXUS63 KILX 161743 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1243 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are likely this afternoon, with the strongest winds being west of I-57. - Much cooler weather will settle into the region through the weekend, resulting in areas of frost both Saturday and Sunday mornings. There is a 40-60% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees northwest of the IL River tonight/Saturday morning and a 30-50% chance east of I-55 Saturday night/Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front has moved through the area but the 500mb trough will rotate through the area today, bringing instability showers to the entire area this afternoon. The bulk of the showers will diminish after sunset but some could linger in far eastern parts of the CWA as the flow becomes more northerly and scattered showers are expected to drop south of Lake Michigan to along the IL/IN border during the evening. Cold air advection is occurring behind the front, tightening the pressure gradient. This is bringing gusty winds to the area early this morning. Wind gusts over 30 mph have already occurred in some spots and gusts shows 80-90% chance that gusts over 30 will continue through the day. In fact, the HREF shows a 40-60% chance of gusts over 35 mph east of I-55 during the afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will then decrease in the west during the evening but not taper off in the east until around midnight. Cooler, fall like temperatures will advect into the area behind the departing cold front this weekend. Highs today and Saturday will be in the 50s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s both Sat and Sun morning. With skies becoming clear tonight and winds becoming much lighter overnight, frost is expected to develop across west central and parts of central Illinois late tonight. The HREF is showing a 40-60% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees northwest of the IL River late tonight/Sat morning, so some low spots could see a light freeze. Frost is possible again Sunday morning, mainly in areas east of I-55 where the HREF is showing a 30-50% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees. Because of the frost potential tonight, a frost advisory has been issued for areas west of a Bloomington to Decatur to Shelbyville line. Another frost advisory will likely be needed east of I-55 Saturday night. Temperatures will begin to warm starting Sunday, reaching into the 60s. The rest of the extended forecast, Monday through Friday, looks to be above normal with highs in the 70s to around 80, especially Thursday and Friday. Dry weather is also expected through the extended period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR ceilings and scattered showers continue to drop southeastward across central Illinois early this afternoon. Satellite trends and HRRR/RAP data suggest the showers will sink south of the terminals by 22z-23z, followed by ceilings rising to VFR by sunset. The clouds will then scatter, resulting in clear skies across the board overnight into Saturday morning. Northwesterly winds will gust 20-25kt through the afternoon, then will begin to decrease from west to east across the area this evening. Wind speeds will drop below 10kt along/west of I-55 overnight, but will remain around 10kt further east at KDEC/KCMI. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031- 036-037-040>042-047>052. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Auten DISCUSSION...Auten AVIATION...Barnes  563 FXUS63 KIND 161744 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong post-frontal northwest winds will gust between 30 and 40 mph Friday morning and afternoon - Widespread frost likely late Saturday night and Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)... Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current Weather through Friday: The Ohio Valley will be going through a significant pattern change over the next 24 hours as a mature low pressure system continues to push eastward within an amplified positively tilted upper level trough. The orientation of this trough created a less aligned phasing of the mid to lower level low of which has created a multitude of weaker boundaries out ahead of the primary cold front and a slower arrival of polar air. One of these confluence boundaries was the initiation point for a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. As of 04Z, this line has weekend significantly with only scattered showers remaining over far E/SE Indiana. Another area of low level confluence can be observed over NW Indiana and E Illinois, of which will be the source for additional showers and isolated weak thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow morning. Lapse rates within this sector of the low are weak in the mid levels of which should keep convective tops capped below 15kft and the thunder threat very isolated. The surface low will continue to mature overnight within strong upper level jet dynamics. In return, CAA will continue to increase pushing the cold front quickly E/SE passing through central Indiana between 09-13Z. A few showers will be possible along the frontal passage, but any additional QPF should be less than 0.1". For the remainder of the day, central Indiana will be within a much cooler airmass with dew points in the 40s and high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Modest lapse rates up to 850mb will likely lead to efficient PBL mixing in the afternoon with gusts upwards of 40 MPH. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out as saturation at the top of the PBL remains coincided with the previously mentioned steep low level lapse rates; that said, any QPF will be minimal. As the late afternoon and evening approaches, mean low level winds back towards 330-360 degrees, of which provides an efficient fetch across Lake Michigan. While a majority of any lake effect rain showers will likely remain north of central Indiana, isolated to scattered showers over NW portions of the area will remain possible from 21- 01Z. Friday Night through Sunday Morning: The remainder of the forecast period will become rather stagnant as the upper low associated with today's trough passage will detach from the flow and become cutoff over the Eastern Coast. This in combination with a weak split flow upper jet will keep low level conditions fairly similar through the weekend and into next week. While the bulk of the forecast will remain similar, slight fluctuations in surface pressure over the next 5-7 days will still lead to slightly different temperatures and wind speed/direction over the forecast period. Continued CAA Friday night will lead to cold morning lows Saturday morning, but there is some uncertainty on the extent of any frost given consistent 6+ MPH surface winds and marginal temperatures around 36-38 degrees. Greatest chances will be within sheltered areas in NE portions of central Indiana, but likelihood of occurrence is currently below 50%. The aforementioned strong CAA will lead to height rises beneath 850mb and therefor building high pressure Friday night through most of Saturday. The centroid of this surface high is expected to overlap with the core of the mid level polar airmass late Saturday though Saturday night leading to our coldest temperatures of the season. Frost looks definite for most of central Indiana on Sunday morning, but there is still some significant uncertainty in below freezing temperatures. Much of this will depend on the timing of the surface high passage along with how it faces with the 850mb temperatures. Ensemble probabilities indicate greater around a 50% chance for NE/E portions of the area, which will be the focus for any freeze headlines in later updates. Remainder of Sunday through Wednesday: The anticyclone will drift eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, allowing insolation to rebound highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows Sunday night will remain cool, in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with patchy frost confined to far eastern rural valleys before low-level winds back to the south. For Monday through Wednesday, the synoptic pattern transitions as upper-level ridging builds over the eastern states and a deep trough carves out over the western CONUS. Steady south-southwesterly return flow will drive a significant warm air advection regime across the Ohio Valley. 850 mb temperatures will moderate to +10C to +13C, pushing daytime highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s by early next week. Overnight lows will moderate into the upper 40s to mid-50s. Long range guidance generally supports quiet weather conditions persisting through the middle of next week as surface high pressure remains in control. Return flow should continue to provide a gradual moderation in temperatures. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings through tonight. - Wind shift to northerly around 00z. - Wind gusts 20 to 30 knots through 04Z - Periodic rain showers with minimal VIS impacts. Discussion: Cold air advection has kept low cloud cover in place today. Ceilings have been oscillating between MVFR and VFR. A trend towards predominant MVFR is anticipated this afternoon into tonight. Clearing is likely on Saturday as high pressure builds in. A secondary upper-level trough arrives this afternoon bringing renewed rain shower activity. Tempo and Prob30 groups have been introduced to cover the most likely timing of these showers. Winds have been gusty out of the west-northwest, with average gusts between 20 to 25 knots so far today. A switch to northerly is expected once the upper trough and showers arrive. Northerly winds could be more gusty than today, with gusts pushing 30 knots in places. Winds begin diminishing after about 04z tonight, dropping to less than 10 knots by 12z Saturday morning. A few gusts to 15-20 knots could persist into the day Saturday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Eckhoff DISCUSSION...Updike  010 FXUS61 KCLE 161751 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 151 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds across the area today into Saturday. 2) Colder air will arrive behind the front tonight through Saturday. Frost/Freeze headlines are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest radar imagery and surface observations reveal pre- frontal activity exiting east of the area early this morning, while more widespread rain approaches from the west associated with a cold front. Given the unfavorable timing of the front this morning, the threat for any stronger showers or storms across our area appears low. A reinforcing cold front/secondary trough will arrive from the northwest later this afternoon and evening, bringing another round of rain and colder air across the region, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling as low as -6 to -7 degrees C by Saturday morning. A period of lake effect rain is likely to develop downwind of Lakes Huron and Erie, especially later tonight into Saturday morning between the I-71/I-77 corridors. Winds will remain elevated for much of the day in the 25 to 30 mph range, though will be most gusty (up to 40 mph) with the frontal passage this morning, and with the secondary trough later this afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will gradually build from the west on Saturday, setting the stage for a prolonged period of generally quiet weather through the upcoming week. The cold air mass in place with the building high should result in efficient radiative cooling, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning where temperatures are expected to fall into the low 30s or even upper 20s in some spots. At the minimum, a widespread frost is expected across much of the area and headlines will be needed. Frost conditions may return again Sunday night into Monday as high pressure continues to influence the weather, though lows may be slightly more moderated in the mid to upper 30s with increasing warm air advection. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Areawide rain showers is expected to continue through the rest of the day today, before the broader rain shield exits to the east by this evening. Rain will mainly consist of 4-6+ SM but some heavier showers could briefly produce visibility down to 1-2SM at times. Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected, though patchy IFR ceilings are possible. By late this evening into early tonight, lake effect rain showers are expected across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. There will be one or two primary bands near KCLE/KMFD and then into Northwest Pennsylvania. High pressure builds in late tonight into Saturday, with skies becoming mostly sunny through the day. Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots become north this evening, and then gradually diminish through the day Saturday. Outlook...Mainly VFR expected. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions will arrive across Lake Erie this morning as a cold front ushers in west to northwest winds of 25 to 30 knots with periodic Gale Force gusts likely behind a secondary trough later this afternoon and evening. Conditions will improve through Saturday morning as north winds gradually subside to 15 to 25 knots becoming west to southwest, 10 to 15 knots, by Saturday night into Sunday. Generally light winds 10 knots or less are expected Sunday through mid-next week as high pressure influences much of the weather pattern. Water levels may briefly near the critical mark of 5 inches above low water datum across the western basin early this morning, though levels are expected to quickly rise later this morning as winds shift more to the west to northwest behind the cold front. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>011-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047. PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ002-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143- 149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>148. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kahn AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Kahn  261 FXUS62 KGSP 161758 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 158 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Freeze Watch has been issued for the North Carolina mountains for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures have trended slightly cooler for Saturday night and Sunday morning, such that most of the NC mountains now have good odds of falling to freezing, or colder. Rain chances continue to increase for both the NC mountains and parts of the Upstate and Piedmont for late tonight into early Saturday morning. Cloud cover associated with this activity has also increased. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front crosses the area this evening and tonight, bringing breezy conditions and a chance for widely scattered rain. 2. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday night and Sunday morning, with temperatures expected to fall to near or below freezing across the NC mountains. Frost potential may return Sunday night, but confidence is limited. 3. Quiet conditions persist most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: A cold front crosses the area this evening and tonight, bringing breezy conditions and a chance for widely scattered rain. It's mostly clear across the area this morning following a stint of isolated dense fog across the mountain valleys, foothills, and even a few spots in the Upstate. Widely scattered stratocumulus remain in place in a few spots across the NC mountains, but otherwise skies are clear and a beautiful day is once again in store. To our west, a strong cold front is easily-discernible in the theta-e and dewpoint fields extending across the central Tennessee Valley into eastern Kentucky...and this feature will drive the interesting weather over the next 24 to 36 hours. Models are in good agreement that the surface front will gain momentum as its upper-level trough sharpens this afternoon, and the system will arrive in the NC mountains by late afternoon or early this evening. The result will be an uptick in winds as the front crosses the region through the overnight hours...pushing to our east by Saturday morning. Strong CAA is depicted on the back side of the front, such that lingering wind gusts of 15-20mph are likely across the mountains through most of the overnight. Winds should also be favorable oriented for a gap wind to develop in parts of the Upstate and Foothills overnight. Winds will begin tapering off through the day on Saturday, but will remain breezy most of the day, not really quieting down until Saturday night. A secondary issue will be the potential for rainfall in and behind the frontal zone tonight. For several consecutive cycles, models have been trending toward an increasing amount of low-level moisture embedded within the postfrontal air mass, and although models have struggled with it for the last couple days, there's an increasingly convincing signal in the hi-res guidance for patchy drizzle to develop. The latest HREF and REFS ensembles feature mainly <0.1" for most of the area...with the exception of some west-facing slopes in the NC mountains, which could receive higher totals. Forecast profiles also suggest some potential for gravity wave development in the lee of the mountains, with favorable orientation of low-level wind vectors and a strong postfrontal inversion developing across the area in response to the front. As a result, CAMs have trended sharply toward more cloud cover overnight tonight, along with somewhat greater coverage of drizzle. Key message 2: A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday night and Sunday morning, with temperatures expected to fall to near or below freezing across the NC mountains. Frost potential may return Sunday night, but confidence is limited. In the wake of Friday night's cold front, a dramatically coolercP air mass will settle into the area for the weekend, allowing temperatures to drop sharply on Saturday and Sunday. Forecast highs still only climb into the lo 60s for most of the area on Saturday and again on Sunday as lingering CAA continues to cool the area off. It currently looks like the coldest night should be Saturday night, when much of the high terrain will see overnight lows drop into the lower 30s. Many locations across the mountains will see temperatures drop to freezing, and a Freeze Watch has been issued, valid from 1AM through 9AM Sunday. The low terrain will likely not see freezing temperatures, though most of the area will cool into the mid to upper 30s. Winds here should remain just elevated enough to preclude a widespread frost risk...though patchy frost in secluded locations seems reasonable. By Sunday night, just enough air mass modification should have occurred that the majority of locations even in the mountains will remain just above freezing. However, more widespread frost looks possible than on Saturday night, as by this point the core of the surface high will be situated just to our west, and winds should be calmer than on Saturday night. No plans for any product just yet, but one may become necessary depending on how the forecast evolves. Confidence is limited by the growing number of ensemble solutions that depict a stacked low developing off the NC coast...which would reinvigorate low-level northerly flow, raising winds and reducing frost potential. Regardless, frost potential should diminish past Sunday night. Key message 3: Quiet conditions persist most of next week. Long-range ensembles are in decent agreement that most of next week will be defined by a stout blocking ridge that'll strengthen across the eastern half of the United States and remain in place through the end of the seven-day forecast. The ridge should keep things stable and unperturbed, so no active weather is expected. Temperatures will steadily climb through the middle of the week as the air mass only slow modifies, such that by mid-week most locations will see highs in the low- to mid-70s, and lows in the upper 40s or lower 50s...more or less around climo for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: A cold front is expected to cross the area from this evening through Saturday morning, bringing gusty winds and a chance for some light rain overnight tonight. General thinking is that winds will stay mostly S/SW through this evening, with gusts up to 25kts, as the front approaches, then toggle around to the at all terminals overnight as the front crosses the area. Some widely scattered light showers may develop near and behind the front...with most hi-res guidance featuring -SHRA across the NC mountains and even parts of the Upstate and Piedmont. In association with this, banded stratocu - mostly low-end VFR - is likely to develop across the mountains, and guidance increasingly supports expansion of ceilings into the Upstate and Piedmont during the late evening and after midnight. Restrictions should mainly be confined to areas where rain is actively falling...though there's a low-end chance for some MVFR ceilings to develop around daybreak Saturday...mainly along I-77 and in the NC mountain valleys. Confidence was too low for an explicit mention in the TAFs...but should any restrictions develop, they'll lift quickly on Saturday morning, giving way to a breezy but VFR day! Outlook: Winds die down by Saturday night, and VFR conditions prevail for most of next week. Mountain valley fog and low stratus will be possible each morning. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 10-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 1897 49 1954 63 1928 29 1939 KCLT 87 1925 58 1937 68 1947 35 1939 1925 KGSP 85 1935 53 1937 67 1925 32 1907 1911 1892 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063. SC...None. && $$ MPR  315 FXUS63 KDDC 161759 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1259 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to below freezing temperatures are forecast for tonight and a freeze warning is in effect. - A slow warming trend is expected starting Saturday, with highs reaching the lower 80s for mid to late next week. - There is a lot of uncertainty with rain chances and amounts for next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The freeze watch was upgraded to a warning for tonight for all of central and western Kansas. South winds will return to far western Kansas toward morning; but light winds are expected for south central Kansas through sunrise. Therefore, temperatures may get as cold in the river bottoms near Dodge City, Cimarron and Jetmore as the traditionally colder spots in west central Kansas. The long term average first freeze date is 5 to 7 days earlier in the low lying areas than the hilltops. Thus, expect temperatures to be several degrees colder in these areas. Temperatures may stay several degrees warmer on the hill at the Dodge City airport where the official low temperature for Dodge City is taken. Broad southwesterly flow at mid and upper levels will return by this weekend and into next week, allowing for surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies, south winds and warmer weather. Expect highs in the 70s by Monday and lower 80s by Wednesday. A large upper level trough will form across the southwestern United States late next week; and this system will slowly progress eastward. However, this far west in the plains we generally need a slow moving upper level low that that has a closed circulation instead of a faster moving and open trough. In the latter scenario, the warm and moist southerly winds generally stay in eastern Kansas and points east; and this is why the winters are climatologically so dry here. The median precipitation for the 15-October to 28-February time frame (4.5 months) is only 3.1" at Dodge City. Additionally, another upper level trough is forecast to amplify across the eastern USA, forcing north winds and drier air into the tropics. So despite a return to south winds in western Kansas, north winds will persist at lower latitudes so that the return flow won't be as moist as one might expect. There may be enough instability for scattered showers and t-storms as the upper trough and associated cold front move east by Friday or Saturday; but widespread heavier rains are unlikely. This is especially true given the absence of a low level cold dome across the plains in advance of the upper trough that might promote moist ascent. That said, the arrival of this trough is still at least a week away; and there is plenty of time for a switch to a more robust solution. The grand ensemble shows even lower chances (10%) for .5" or greater of rain across southwest Kansas than it showed yesterday (15-25%). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong north winds at 20 kts will diminish this evening as surface high pressure builds across western Kansas. A surface trough will form in the lee of the Rockies by the end of the period, resulting in a return to south to southwest winds at 10-15 kts. VFR conditions are forecast to persist. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Finch  288 FXUS64 KLUB 161703 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1203 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Cool and breezy conditions continue through Friday. - The first freeze of the season is likely for much of the Caprock early Saturday morning. - Temperatures warm back near normal next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The plume of enhanced atmospheric moisture responsible for the last couple of days of active weather has finally begin shifting to our east. Dry weather is now in place and will continue through the near term as flow aloft weakens and subsidence persists on the backside of the departing system. Blustery north winds will continue through the rest of tonight and into most of Friday in the wake of our earlier cold front, with sustained speeds expected to be in the 20 to 30 mph range given surface pressure rises on the order of 3 to 5 mb in 3 hours. Lingering high cloud cover and the magnitude of the northerly breeze will prevent temperatures from falling too dramatically overnight, but we still expect lows in the 40s area- wide early Friday morning. Friday will be the chilliest day this area has seen in quite some time with temperatures only expected to top out in the mid to upper 50s Friday afternoon. In fact, the last time that Lubbock measured a daytime high below 60 degrees was way back on Mar. 16. Winds will begin to diminish Friday afternoon and will decrease quite quickly by Friday evening as a surface ridge settles over the TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The first freeze of the season still looks likely for portions of the region late Friday night through early Saturday morning. This will be driven by conditions favorable for excellent radiational cooling, with clearing skies and very light winds as the surface ridge builds directly overhead. General consensus of guidance still favors lows on Saturday morning in the upper 20s over the SW TX Panhandle and low 30s over most of the South Plains. Should clouds be slower to clear than currently expected, temps may be able to remain above freezing, however confidence is high enough in temps near or just below 32F to support a Freeze Watch over the entire Caprock from Friday night through early Saturday morning. This would be an early first freeze for this region, with the climatological average first freeze for many locations still two or three weeks out. Surface flow will gradually obtain a stronger southerly component on Saturday as surface ridging shifts to our east, but will be weak enough to support one more very cool day with highs still in the 50s and low 60s Saturday afternoon. Southerly winds will become more robust Sunday and beyond, which combined with the building of a modest upper ridge axis will boost temperatures back towards normal for this time of year next week. Models are in good agreement keeping our area dry through at least Tuesday, with mid/upper moisture and precipitation chances possibly returning during the second half of the week as a deep upper low settles to our west. For now though, a dry forecast is still favored with poor model consensus at this lead time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail. Strong northerly winds around 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots will continue through the early evening hours before decreasing the rest of the evening. Overnight into tomorrow, winds remain from the north, however weaken significantly to around 5 to 10 knots. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ021>024- 027>030-033>036-039>041. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...10  350 FXUS64 KOUN 161705 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Cooler air continues filtering into the area today, lasting into the weekend. - Freeze Watch in effect for far northwest OK tonight into Saturday morning. - Mostly dry with a warming trend next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Much cooler temperatures continue to advect into the area behind yesterday's cold front. Expect lows this morning to dip into the low 40s across northern/western OK with low 50s across southeast OK. Breezy northerly winds will continue through the day today helping keep temperatures quite cool, in the 50s and low 60s for highs. Some uncertainty exists regarding the degree of cloud cover and whether we see a scattered vs broken stratus deck this afternoon. Our forecast highs are based on a more optimistic cloud forecast but if low clouds are more extensive, highs could be a bit cooler in spots (low 50s vs forecast of upper 50s). Winds are expected to diminish tonight, especially across northern/western OK. With skies becoming mostly clear this should lead to excellent radiational cooling conditions. Lows Saturday morning could approach freezing across northwest OK, especially in sheltered and/or low lying areas, where a Freeze Watch remains in effect for Harper and Ellis counties. Elsewhere, lows will dip into the mid 30s to low 40s. Widespread frost and fog development is not anticipated tonight as even with light winds and extensive ground moisture from recent heavy rains, a dry airmass advecting over the area today should make it more difficult to achieve saturation near the ground. That said, as wet as the ground is would not be surprised to see some very localized frost and/or fog development in portions of western/northwestern OK in highly sheltered locations. Ware && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The surface ridge axis will settle over the area on Saturday, helping keep things cool with highs once again expected to be in the 50s in most areas. Fog formation may be a bit more favored Saturday night with some slight airmass modification/moistening, wet ground, and continued light winds and mostly clear skies. The ridge will settle further to our southeast by Sunday as troughing over the Rockies promotes lee cyclogenesis to our west. Surface pressure falls will promote increasing southerly flow and a warming trend, with highs Sunday afternoon expected to make it back into the mid to upper 60s across the area under mostly sunny skies. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A warming trend and generally dry conditions are in store for the early to middle part of next week as upper ridging builds over the area and a large cutoff low develops along the California coast by the middle of next week. The only precipitation chance during this period (currently <10%) is across western/northwestern OK Monday into Tuesday as a weak shortwave lifts northeastward across NM/CO, but for now the bulk of the forcing is forecast to remain to our northwest. Better rain chances may accompany the western US trough late next week into next weekend, but model disagreement is high regarding the speed and amplitude of the trough as it begins to eject eastward. Ware && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gusty north winds will continue through the afternoon before diminishing this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 39 59 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 37 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 40 60 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 33 62 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 36 59 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 43 65 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ004-009. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ005>008- 010>016-021-022-033-034. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...14  233 FXUS61 KBOX 161702 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 102 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers this morning followed by a lull in activity for much of the afternoon aside from a few spot showers. Another round of showers with some embedded thunderstorms possible move through between 5-11 pm. Windier and colder Saturday following a strong cold front. * Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. * Dry with more seasonable through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters towards the midweek period. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers this morning followed by a lull in activity for much of the afternoon aside from a few spot showers. Another round of showers with some embedded thunderstorms possible move through between 5-11 pm. Windier and colder Saturday following a strong cold front. High pressure continues to drift off to the east early this morning and showers have starting to make their way into parts of western MA and CT. These will continue to track through the region this morning, spreading from west to east. This is associated with a 1004 mb low pressure system currently over the Great Lakes region that will track along the southern Ontario/Quebec and northeast US border as the day goes on. As it does, the low is expected to continue deepening as its associated upper level shortwave trough also deepens, cutting well into the Midwest by this evening. Showers this morning will likely last a few hours at any given location. Winds have already shifted more southerly this morning, which will help kick off the advection of an anomalous moisture plume and warmer air. PWATs up to 1.75" and even approaching 2.0" will creep into southern New England as the low's warm front moves through by the early afternoon. Once this warm front tracks through, the system's warm sector will settle overhead for the afternoon. This will provide a bit of a respite from steady showers ahead of the next expected round of rain, though a few spot showers cannot be completely ruled out. 925 mb temperatures while under this warm sector will increase to the 16-18C range with 850 mb temperatures around 15C as warm air advection moves in full force. Highs will likely reach the upper 60s and low 70s as a result. A southerly LLJ also sets up, with the core of it at 925 mb ranging between 45-50 kt. Amidst some of the model discrepancies, the general agreement is the core of this will be just over the eastern waters in the afternoon, reaching up to 60 kt (though the NAM goes even higher at 65 kt). This same signature is also noted at 850 mb. Model soundings do, however, indicate an inversion at the low to mid levels which would inhibit this jet from fully mixing down. Gusty winds to 30 mph are not out of the question, and some could see 35 mph gusts closer to the eastern coastlines. Cloudy conditions persist through the day as well, given the abundant moisture aloft. Our concern then turns to the next round of rain towards the evening hours, which could include some embedded thunderstorms. Not much has changed in the CAMs for the 5-11 pm timeframe today, as they've continued to show the development of a "fine line" tracking from west to east across the region. High-res guidance still indicates a few hundred J/kg this afternoon and evening ahead of the low's strong cold front, though 0-6 km effective bulk shear is in the 50- 60 kt range with strong jet dynamics. Given this environment, some embedded thunderstorms could develop as this line of showers moves through southern New England. Even with the forcing from the approaching cold front, the limited instability should keep the severe potential for any embedded thunderstorms that may develop quite low. This high shear/low CAPE environment may still produce some instances of sub-severe gusts to 50 mph though, and much of southern New England is under a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather today. Western portions of central CT are in a Slight (2/5) risk for severe weather today, though also for the risk of severe and damaging winds. Latest CSU ML guidance has much of the northeast under a 5-15% chance for severe winds today as well, so it cannot be entirely ruled out. This will continue to be monitored ahead of and during the event. Some of the high-res guidance also showed a signal for a some post- frontal rain across southeastern New England, though by the time this arrives, the threat for any embedded thunderstorms will have dropped considerably. Event rainfall totals are expected to generally range between 0.3-0.7" across southern New England. Depending on where some embedded thunderstorms/more convective showers set up, some spots could see locally higher totals, especially given the high PWAT environment. KEY MESSAGE 2...Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. As the cold front crosses southern New England through Saturday morning, strong cold air advection is left in its wake. 925 mb temperatures fall below 0C by Saturday evening, and PWATs fall below 0.25" once more as colder, drier air sets in. Lows Friday night fall into the 40s and upper 30s (towards the high elevations). Highs Saturday may struggle to reach the low 50s across the interior and lows Saturday night will likely dip below freezing across the region, with the exceptions being areas closest to the coasts and urban areas. Once the gusty NW winds drop off earlier in the overnight period Saturday, we could see some radiational cooling develop as high pressure builds in post-FROPA, enhancing an already relatively cold night for some locations. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry with more seasonable through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters towards the midweek period. High pressure continues to build in Sunday and a more seasonably cool airmass moves into the region, and the tighter gradient between the strong exiting low and approaching high pressure slackens. This will allow winds to let up as well, diminishing slightly heading into the second half of the weekend and the start of next week. As high pressure settles overhead as well, temperatures will moderate back to more typical levels for this time of year as highs return to the 50s and 60s into early next week. One thing we will be keeping an eye on, though, is the development of a cutoff low towards the mid-Atlantic/Carolina coastal waters. This feature appears to have detached from the broader upper level trough that was associated with the strong low pressure that is impacting us today. There is some uncertainty with regards to our region seeing any impacts from this cutoff low, especially given the strength of the ridge overhead during this point in the forecast. Even then, at most, it would lead to some scattered showers towards the Cape and Islands at closest and more NE breezes. Much can change between now and this timeframe, but as of now, impacts look minimal to zero. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... This afternoon into this evening...Moderate confidence. IFR to localized LIFR conditions dominated the region at mid afternoon. There were still a few showers across RI/southeast MA...but otherwise most of the region was ina lull with just areas of drizzle and fog. Main concern is between 22z and 02z as a cluster showers and potentially embedded t-storms sweeps across the region. Greatest risk for thunder will be across CT/RI/SE MA...but that is possible across the rest of the region as well. Brief localized strong wind gusts/heavy rainfall may accompany this cluster of showers even if there is not any lightning. Otherwise...LLWS will continue to be an issue at times into this evening. Overnight into Saturday...High confidence. Conditions should improve to VFR across most areas northwest of I-95 later this evening. Scattered showers will linger well into the overnight hours and even into part of Sat across parts of RI/SE MA...especially across the Cape/Islands allowing lower ceilings lingering a bit in this region. Meanwhile...the rest of the region will see VFR conditions as drier air works into the region. NW winds gusts will increase to between 20 and 30 knots during the day Sat. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Main concern is between 23z and 02z when a cluster of showers with perhaps embedded thunder work across the region. Even if there is not any thunder...brief strong wind gusts are possible with the frontal passage. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Main concern is between 22z and 01z when a cluster of showers with perhaps embedded thunder work across the region. Even if there is not any thunder...brief strong wind gusts are possible with the frontal passage. Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday...High confidence. Intensifying low pressure will continue to track near the northern New England/Quebec border today into this evening. Ahead of this low, strong small craft southerly wind gusts along with choppy seas will develop early today. Behind this cold front, NW wind gusts of 30-35 knots will develop especially late tonight into Sat morning in the CAA pattern. Latest guidance has still shown more marginal Gale conditions, so a Gale Watch remains over these areas. Despite marginal conditions, cold air advection patterns can often overperform this time of year given relatively warm SST which can enhance mixing. Either way, strong SCA to gale force wind gusts are expected with choppy seas. Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/... Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ232>235-237- 250. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...Frank MARINE...Hrencecin  267 FXUS63 KDDC 161703 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1203 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong high pressure toward the north promotes elevated pressure gradient, resulting in breezy conditions today - High pressure moves overhead tonight, reducing winds and leading to widespread frost/freeze Saturday morning - Difference in timing is noted, but storm system late next week into next weekend could bring next precipitation chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong 1042 mb surface high pressure is currently centered over eastern MT and northern WY. A 1006 mb surface low is also centered over the Great Lakes. Between these features, an elevated pressure gradient is present, leading to breezy northwest winds across the forecast area later this morning. Bumped up the winds and gusts a few notches over NBM consensus, so expect winds 20-30 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Winds will gradually diminish as aforementioned high pressure begins to move southward through this afternoon and situates over the area late this afternoon. With clear skies and calm winds, expect a widespread freeze tonight and into Saturday morning. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area to account for this likelihood. Areas west of Route 283 will have a better potential for a harder, killing freeze with temperatures dropping into the middle 20s. Areas along and east of Route 283 still has a high probability of freezing temperatures, but generally temperatures are expected to be in the 29-32 degree range. These colder temperatures are short lived as return southerly flow emerges as the high pressure continues eastward over the central Mississippi Valley into this weekend. High temperatures are expected to be in the 60s on Saturday, with 70s returning Sunday. Lows in this timeframe will be in the mid to upper 30s Sunday morning, and 40s by Monday morning. Temperatures continue to gradually build back around 80 by mid to late week as a ridge builds in ahead of a deepening and digging trough across the Western U.S. through next week. Our next chance of precipitation increases by late week next week and perhaps into next weekend. Globals differ on timing and placement of a potential development of a possible lee cyclone. GFS is a bit more progressive and farther north with the ENS slower, stronger, and farther south. In either case, should be on the warm side of the storm. Instability is meager among the models, leading to thunderstorm chance uncertainty. With the sweeping cold front getting well into the Gulf, any potential moisture return back into our area may be difficult to accomplish. POPs are low in the forecast as of now, with only chance categories around 30-40% Thursday and Friday. Climatologically, continued widespread rains like we've seen are harder to come by in these typically drier months. Otherwise, plenty of time to see how this upcoming pattern shakes out. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong north winds at 20 kts will diminish this evening as surface high pressure builds across western Kansas. A surface trough will form in the lee of the Rockies by the end of the period, resulting in a return to south to southwest winds at 10-15 kts. VFR conditions are forecast to persist. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...Finch  984 FXUS61 KILN 161732 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze Watch issued for Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Occasional showers and brisk conditions will continue into tonight. 2) High pressure will build into the region through the weekend, bringing drier conditions and below normal temperatures. Widespread frost is likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures will slowly moderate into midweek while conditions remain dry. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1) Post frontal precipitation and brisk conditions will persist across the area through this afternoon. Some wrap around shower activity may linger into tonight as a secondary cold front pivots through the area. In continued low level CAA, temperatures will drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s overnight, but clouds and winds will help prevent frost formation. Key Message 2) Surface high pressure will build into our area Saturday into Saturday night before beginning to shift off to the east on Sunday. This will bring dry and continued cold conditions. With the surface high centered over Ohio by early Sunday morning, expect good radiational cooling for Saturday night, with clear skies and light winds. Have undercut temps somewhat and will generally go with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with cooler readings possible in the more sheltered areas. Have issued a Freeze Watch for our entire area for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Below normal temperatures will continue on Sunday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. We will then gradually moderate through the rest of next week as the surface high shifts slowly east. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Expect MVFR cigs to continue through the night in the wake of the cold front that moved through earlier today. Light rain showers will also persist, occasionally dropping vsbys into MVFR category into this evening. Gusty west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots will prevail into this evening before becoming more northerly tonight as a secondary cold front moves through. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region on Saturday with mostly clear skies developing through mid to late morning. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL  282 FXUS61 KRLX 161738 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 138 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front brings showers, storms, and gusty winds today, followed by colder temperatures and continued breezes tonight. 2) Widespread frost/freeze conditions are expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning. 3) Quiet weather and a warming trend are expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A low-pressure system traveling northeast along the Canada/New England border will continue to drag a cold front across the middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians today. Mainly rain and gusty winds have been accompanying the frontal passage, though some thunderstorms could also develop this afternoon. While the severe potential for today is low, a stronger gust or two could be possible with storms this afternoon. Additionally, given wet ground from previous rain, even sub- severe wind gusts may down trees. Cold air advection will bring a noticeable drop in temperatures behind the front, and is anticipated to sustain breezy conditions into Saturday. Precipitation starts tapering off from west to east once the axis of an upper trough passes overhead tonight. In the higher elevations of the northeast mountains, rain may transition to a wintry mix before precipitation comes to an end Saturday morning. Snow is not expected to accumulate. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure and drier air build in from the west on Saturday, bringing an end to any light precipitation lingering over the northeast mountains. Breezy conditions are expected to gradually relax throughout the day, then calm and clear conditions set in for Saturday night. Temperatures remain below normal through the day, then overnight lows dive down into the mid 20s to 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of the mountains, northern West Virginia, southwest Virginia, and southeast Ohio, where there is highest confidence in below freezing temperatures developing late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Frost Advisories are likely to be needed for the remainder of the area. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure is expected to sustain drier weather from Sunday through at least the middle of next week while a low spirals off of the Virginia/Carolina coast. Although temperatures will trend warmer during this time, one more frosty morning could be possible on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A mix of VFR and MVFR can be expected as a cold front brings showers across the area this afternoon and evening, then more widespread MVFR or worse conditions are expected to develop in low ceilings and continued precipitation overnight. Ceilings should then slowly improve from west to east on Saturday. West to northwest winds will turn northerly overnight, with gusts of 20 to 25 kts expected to continue across much of the area, and 25 to 35 kt gusts possible over the higher ridges into Saturday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may vary from the TAFs, timing of improvement tomorrow may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H L H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... Calm winds and clear skies will favor late-night and early- morning dense river valley fog producing LIFR visibility restrictions Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ009>011-017>020-027>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085. KY...None. VA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...20  024 FXUS62 KMLB 161733 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 133 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Rain chances rise today, with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing into the afternoon and evening. A few strong storms will be possible. - Breezy to windy conditions develop behind a passing front Saturday afternoon and continue through the weekend into early next week. Wind Advisories are likely. - Dangerous boating conditions, high surf, and moderate beach erosion are expected behind the front this weekend and into next week. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water beginning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today-Tonight...A cold front moves into the Southeast U.S. today pushing high pressure north of the area farther east. Winds weaken and will be somewhat variable today, with the east coast sea breeze developing into the afternoon and winds along the coast becoming onshore and increasing to 5-10 mph. Moisture continues to build northward across the area with PW values around 2.0" across the area today. This will lead to greater rain chances today (around 50-70%), with scattered showers and storms developing primarily into the afternoon and evening. However isolated to scattered coastal showers will be possible this morning. Temps remain relatively warm aloft (around -6C at 500mb), but there will be some pockets of drier air aloft, with DCAPE values around 500-800 J/kg that may still lead to a few stronger storms today. Main threats will be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts to 40-45 mph and heavy downpours. Slow storm motion toward the N-NE and moist airmass in place may lead to locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches from any storms or heavier showers. This may lead to mostly minor flooding, but with saturated ground conditions can't completely rule out an isolated instance of flash flooding. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall exits across much of the area today. Temperatures will be above normal, ranging from the upper 80s along the coast to upper 80s/low 90s inland. More humid conditions today will also produce peak heat index values around 98-102F. Warm and muggy conditions continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Thursday...Cold front pushes southward through the area Saturday, with north-northeast winds becoming breezy to windy into the afternoon. Sustained winds look to increase to 15-20 mph inland and up to 20-25 mph along the coast, with gusts up to 30-35 mph. While a Wind Advisory for portions of the coast can't be completely ruled out for Saturday afternoon, better potential exists along the coast into Saturday night and across much of the area Sunday, as northeast winds increase further from tightening pressure gradient between strong high building in north of the stalled front south of the area. Gusts up to 35-40 mph (potentially slightly higher along the coast) will be possible. A tight pressure gradient will continue through early to middle portion of next week, as cut-off low develops a strong area of low pressure offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, maintaining breezy to windy NE winds across the region. This prolonged period of increased onshore flow, will lead to hazardous coastal conditions. Rough surf, large breaking waves, and a high risk of life-threatening rip currents will be present at all area beaches. Entering the water is highly discouraged! Long period onshore swells will also likely contribute to moderate beach erosion through multiple high tide cycles. High coverage of showers and isolated to scattered storms will continue into Saturdaywith the passing front, with highest rain chances southeast of the I-4 corridor. As flow veers onshore persistent shower bands or storms may still lead to a risk of flooding, mainly along the Treasure Coast into Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall persists for this region tomorrow. Drier air works in behind the front lowering PW values below 1.5" by Sunday, but the strong NE breeze will still generate rounds of scattered onshore moving showers Sunday and through much of next week, with greatest potential for rain across the coastal counties. A few storms pushing onshore will also be possible, mainly south of the Cape. It will turn cooler behind the front into the weekend with highs falling as low as the the mid 70s to low 80s by Sunday and Monday, and then some gradual warming is forecast. Overnight lows drop into the 60s, but along the immediate coast the stronger NE breeze may keep min temps in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions continue through tonight before this weekend's cold frontal passage. Onshore winds weaken today as high pressure north of the region continues eastward ahead of the approaching front. Wind speeds diminish to 5-10 knots today, with wind direction veering to the S/SW into tonight. Seas will remain around 2-3 feet. Onshore moving scattered showers and isolated storms will continue south of the Cape through early this morning, with coverage increasing and building northward over the coastal waters past sunrise. A few offshore moving storms producing gusty winds and occasional to frequent lightning strikes will also be possible into the afternoon/evening. Saturday-Tuesday...Cold front pushes southward across the waters Saturday, with rapidly deteriorating conditions behind the boundary. N/NE winds quickly increase to 20-30 knots behind the front, with frequent gusts to gale force likely. A Gale Watch has been issued across the Volusia County waters starting at 11 AM Saturday and expands to the Brevard waters at 2 PM tomorrow afternoon. Gale conditions then make take a longer time to work their way southward into the Treasure Coast waters (maybe not until late Saturday night/Sunday), so for now have issued a Small Craft Advisory for this portion of the waters starting late afternoon Saturday. A strong NE breeze then persists Sunday into at least Monday, with frequent gusts to gale force forecast to continue. Seas also quickly build behind the front to 10-15 feet through Saturday night, with seas remaining elevated around these heights through early next week. High coverage of showers and storms will continue into Saturday, with repeated rounds of gusty scattered showers pushing southwest across the waters and onshore behind the front through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. A few storms will continue to be possible as well behind the front, mainly south of the Cape. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Increasing coverage of showers and storms through today, with VCSH and VCTS at all terminals through this afternoon. TEMPOs and PROB30s at all sites except LEE and DAB for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA, generally between 18-21Z along the coast and 20-23Z across the interior. Light and variable winds through the overnight hours with some lingering VCSH possible through 02-04Z. Saturday, a cold front approaches east central Florida, with VCSH returning to LEE after 09Z, expanding to the other terminals through the morning hours. Lower confidence in VCTS, but will continue to monitor. Winds veer to out of the north at 10-12 knots generally after 15Z with ongoing VCSH areawide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 78 6574 / 20 30 10 20 MCO 73 80 65 77 / 50 40 10 10 MLB 73 82 69 79 / 50 50 30 20 VRB 73 84 70 81 / 40 70 50 20 LEE 72 78 61 75 / 30 40 0 10 SFB 72 79 64 76 / 30 40 10 10 ORL 74 80 65 76 / 50 40 10 10 FPR 72 83 70 80 / 40 70 60 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Gale Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550- 570. Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ552- 572. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ555-575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Tollefsen  229 FXUS62 KTBW 161736 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 136 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters are expected over the weekend and continuing into next week. - Moisture will continue to increase with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today and Saturday. - A cooler drier airmass with below average temperatures will arrive by Sunday and continue through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The warm dry pattern gets disrupted today as moisture works its way back over the area, clearly evident by this morning's sounding showing the PWAT value over 2 inches. With increased moisture, daytime heating, and a bit of a sea breeze developing, scattered to numerous showers are expected. Highest coverage will likely be over the interior. WPC has placed the majority of the area in a marginal (1 of 5) risk for excessive rainfall, likely due to the potential for isolated heavy downpours in slow moving storms. Meanwhile a cold front will approach the area overnight before moving through Florida tomorrow . Showers and storms are expected to accompany the front as it moves over the area. Saturday evening into Sunday, once the cold front has moved south of the forecast area, high pressure will build back in. This will create a tight pressure gradient between the two, which will lead to elevated winds over the area. This will lead to hazardous marine conditions through the weekend and into next week. However, the strong north to northeasterly breeze will help usher in some cooler and drier air. High temperatures are expected to be in mid/upper 70s to low/mid 80s through the forecast period. Low temperatures will be in the low 50s to low 60s. Should be a nice stretch of fall like conditions for the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Mostly VFR conditions prevail through the period. Only exception will be showers and and storms that develop this afternoon. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions for ceilings and visibility restrictions as well as gusty winds are possible in the vicinity of storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Marine conditions expected to deteriorate tomorrow as a cold front approaches the waters bringing a line of showers and storms. Behind the front, the pressure gradient tightens up between the high pressure that moves towards the area and the retreating cold front. This will quickly elevate winds starting tomorrow and lasting into next week. Sustained winds between 25-30kts, with higher gusts expected. Current forecast trends have slightly lowered winds over the waters, keeping only a few isolated gusts near gale force. However, we will continue to monitor trends and observations. Overall, marine conditions are expected to be hazardous into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Increase in moisture today will lead to some afternoon showers and storms. A cold front moves through tomorrow. A cooler drier air mass will move over the area behind it. However, RH values are expected to remain above critical levels. Breezy conditions are expected through the weekend and into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 80 62 77 / 40 60 0 0 FMY 76 83 68 81 / 40 70 40 10 GIF 74 81 63 79 / 40 50 10 0 SRQ 76 82 64 79 / 40 70 10 0 BKV 72 79 59 76 / 40 50 0 0 SPG 76 80 64 77 / 50 70 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday forCharlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce  046 FXUS63 KDLH 161733 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions expected this weekend, with elevated fire weather conditions possible Saturday. - A very chilly night and widespread freeze tonight, then a gradual warming trend into and through next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Additional rain showers continue to make their way across the region this morning. The main synoptic system is pushing off to the east across the Great Lakes, with some lingering wrap around precipitation being the main driver for the rain we are still seeing. These showers should steadily move east and diminish through this morning, with a little lingering lake enhanced rain possible into the early afternoon along the South Shore. Closely following the surface low moving east is a notable surface high pressure building over the Dakotas, making for a prominent pressure gradient between the two. This is leading to wind gusts of 20-40mph over western to central MN, which will push across the rest of the Northland through this morning. The zenith for peak gusts should be observed between now and noon, with weakening gusts through the afternoon and evening. Saturday, that high pressure should bring in dry air, along with some gusty southwest winds. First, low dewpoints and clearing skis should allow temperatures to plummet overnight, leading to morning low temperatures in the 20s Saturday. Then, a combination of afternoon relative humidity dropping to near 30% and southwest wind gusts of 20-30mph could lead to some near-critical fire weather conditions. Recent model guidance has trended slightly more moist with relative humidity due to cooler afternoon high temperatures, but there is still a wide spread in that variable which could affect final RH values. With a sunny day expected that should increase mixing, we're still keeping an eye on Saturday for fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This afternoon, rain showers will continue to spread across the Northland as a surface low cuts across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. This main band of rain currently moving through far northeastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will continue to move east throughout this evening and overnight, with the heaviest rainfall falling across northwest Wisconsin. Models are still having trouble with a cold bias overnight, so brought up minimum temperatures for tonight due to cloud cover, as done in previous forecasts. Wrap around showers will develop and more off-and-on rain showers are expected across much of the area in the late night and early morning Friday. Lake enhanced/effect rain showers will continue through most of Friday morning across portions of the South Shore as cold air moves over the relatively warm waters of Lake Superior. A few snowflakes could mix in across far northern Minnesota during the overnight hours, but no accumulations and no impacts are expected. Strong north winds will surge behind the departing boundary, gusting between 25 and 35 mph inland and up to 45 mph near Lake Superior, before conditions subside and skies clear late Friday afternoon. High pressure will build across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, bringing a return of sunny skies and dry air. RHs increased significantly Saturday with the initial population of forecast data, so decreased them again to better account for dry air aloft that will likely mix down to the surface that day. No fire headlines are anticipated at this time, but fire weather conditions will still be near critical with the combined lower RH of 25 to 30 percent and gusty southwest winds of 20-30 mph expected that day. Under this system, temperatures will increase back toward sixty degrees through the weekend into next week. On Sunday, an upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with only scattered passing clouds. Winds will follow as this system passes with gusts 20-30 mph in northwest Wisconsin. RH values between 30 and 40% will lead to elevated fire weather conditions with higher winds, but not anticipating any fire headlines needed. Behind this boundary, upper-level ridging will become the dominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This synoptic regime will maintain dry, mostly clear, and unseasonably mild weather across our area through Monday, with afternoon temperatures warming well into the sixties. Dry and quiet weather will persist into Tuesday as the upper ridge remains centered over the region, keeping temperatures mild. By Wednesday, a weak passing upper disturbance will bring an increase in cloud cover along with a slight chance of afternoon rain showers. However, any precipitation will be light and widely scattered, with dry conditions still favored overall at this point. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Broken MVFR ceilings lift to VFR and slowly scour out in coverage late afternoon to early evening today. Expect the last few rain showers as well through 20Z today for inland north- central Wisconsin. The strong and gusty northerly winds early this afternoon decrease quickly from 20Z - 23Z today before mainly light and variable winds setup tonight. For those areas that do remain under 10 knots after 06Z tonight, a few hour period of low-level wind shear is forecast into sunrise hours Saturday morning as a southwest jet moves overhead. Winds begin to mix out from that southwest jet Saturday daytime for another breezy day, but from the southwest tomorrow. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A very strong period of north winds will affect Western Lake Superior this morning, with gales expected through midday. Winds should diminish through the afternoon, but a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed until early this evening. Winds turn to become southwesterly through the weekend, with some strong gusts possible, especially in the afternoon and along the South Shore. Max gusts could approach gale-force Saturday afternoon and evening, but its still a little uncertain at this time. Wind gusts over 30knots are likely (70% chance), but getting all the way to 34knots is less certain, especially for the North Shore and into the open waters. Small Craft Advisories are likely, and a Gale Warning is possible. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Very strong northwest winds are expected this morning, peaking in the late morning to around noon, and then slowly weakening through the afternoon and evening. This will accompany diminishing rain showers, which should be largely out of the region by mid morning. As drier air moves in behind these showers, afternoon relative humidity should drop to around 40-50%. Saturday will be a day to watch for fire weather concerns, though recent model guidance has backed off on the very dry air we were expecting. Minimum afternoon relative humidity could still drop to 30-40% along with southwest winds gusting 20-30 mph. Gusty southwest winds continue into Sunday, with afternoon minimum relative humidity recovering slightly, expected to be in the 35-45% range. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140>147. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ148- 150. && $$ UPDATE...Levens DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...NLy MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens  512 FXUS63 KDVN 161708 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning and expanded slightly to the south and east. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area tonight. Frost is be possible Saturday night but not as widespread. - Winds gusting up to 45 mph can be expected during the daylight hours Friday. The probability of wind headlines being needed is 30-35%. - A warm-up next week will send temperatures back above normal for late October. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Freeze warnings and frost advisories have been issued for late Friday night into Saturday morning. Winds will gust up to 45 mph during the daylight hours Friday as the trop fold and wind max move through the area. Interestingly, the very short range models do not push the 45+ mph gusts into the area. Cloud cover will limit the amount of deep mixing but I would not be surprised if some localized gusts to 50 mph occur. Trends with the winds will need to be watched today for a possible wind headline. The current probabilities of a wind headline is 30-35 percent. Tonight into Saturday morning the key message is the cold temperatures. Areas roughly north of a Sterling, IL to Fairfield, IA line have at least a 50 percent probability of seeing temperatures around freezing. If the current negative delta trend on lows tonight continues, the freeze warning may need to be expanded further to the south and east. Frost is a given with winds dropping to 5 mph or less after midnight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Saturday night through Thursday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence on temperatures trending above normal. Saturday night into Sunday will be another chilly night with frost again possible but not as widespread as Friday night into Saturday. Headlines for frost may be needed. Starting Sunday and continuing through the week a general warm-up will be seen with temperatures trending above normal for late October. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Widespread MVFR cigs of 1000 to 2500 ft will continue this afternoon, as an upper low moves through the area, with gusty north/northwest surface winds of 15 to 25 kts. Some afternoon gusts in northeast Iowa may reach 35 kts for brief times. Right around sunset tonight, the system will move east of the region, and skies will clear out, with winds decreasing under 10 kts. This will be a quiet, VFR, chilly night and morning ahead into Saturday. This afternoon, a few lingering brief light showers remain possible, with visibility generally remaining above 6 miles. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076-077-087. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ078-088- 089-098-099. IL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ016>018- 024>026-034-035. MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ009-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Ervin  075 FXUS63 KEAX 161734 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1234 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cool and breezy day is expected today with highs in the low to mid 50s and northerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph. - Near to below freezing temperatures possible over northern areas late Friday night into Saturday morning. - A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning with a Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front has moved through the area and overnight cold air advection has been left in its wake. This cold air advection will continue through the day today making out during the late morning/early afternoon with northerly winds gusting to 30-35 mph. In addition, a upper level trough will move through the area today ushering in mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. This coupled with the strong CAA will hold highs in the low to mid 50s. This evening a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area allowing winds to relax as the upper level trough shifts east allowing skies to clear tonight. This will create a good radiational cooling setup inviting the potential for the first freeze of the season across the northwestern and northern CWA and a first frost for much of the rest of the CWA. While this is not expected to be a hard or killing freeze with temperatures expected to fall into the low to mid 30s, any sensitive vegetation will need to be protected tonight. Tomorrow, the surface ridge of high pressure will remain in control providing for weak mixing. So, despite sunny skies, highs will hold in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Skies are expected to remain clear tonight night however, the surface ridge is expected to shift east of the area overnight. This will allow, light southerly winds to develop keeping temperatures from dropping below freezing however, patchy frost cannot be ruled out. Sunday, slight height rises coupled with modest WAA and sunny skies will drive highs back to seasonal normals in the mid to upper 60s. The extended period looks mostly quiet with broad upper level ridging for the first half of the work week becoming more amplified over the central CONUS in the second half of the work week. This will produce a warming trend through the week with temperatures on Monday starting the week slightly above normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. However, highs by Thursday and Friday will move well above normal rising into the mid 70s to mid 80s. The next slight chance (15-25%) for precipitation doesn't arrive until Friday as a upper level trough move out from the southwestern CONUS into the central/northern Plains weakening as it does. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Currently at our TAF sites, we are seeing overcast skies with 2500- 3500 ft agl ceilings, promoting the area to be a critical threshold between MVFR and VFR. There is a north wind of around 15-20kts, with gusts to 30kts. Winds will diminish during the evening as we lose the daytime mixing. Cloud cover will also decrease as dry air from the north advects into our area. As a result, clear sky conditions will be likely after 0300z, and throughout the day tomorrow. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>007- 011>016-020. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ008-017- 021>025-028>033-037>039-043-044. KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-060- 103>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...Bjork  861 FXUS63 KOAX 161710 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph this morning will gradually diminish through the afternoon. - A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire area for late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Expect temperatures to fall as low as 30 degrees by Saturday morning. - Dry conditions continue with a warming trend into next week. Next widespread chance for showers & storms won't be until late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low clouds are moving in from the north overnight tonight with gusty winds out of the north. Looking at the overall pattern, a deep upper-level trough is bringing a surge of northerly winds into the Northern Plains tonight. These winds are amplified by a strengthening pressure gradient as a broad ridge over the Intermountain West pushes into the Plains. Winds will be strongest toward daybreak tomorrow morning with northerly winds gusting 30 to 40 mph, potentially higher in northeast Nebraska. With windy conditions and temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s, we'll see wind chill fall to near or even below freezing across much of our area Friday morning. As the trough shifts off to the east and high pressure builds in, winds will relax going into the afternoon with highs warming into the low-to-mid 50s. This ridge slides east across the central CONUS bringing a transition back to southwesterly flow late Saturday. Mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s by Sunday morning. As southwesterly flow continues to advect in warmer air, we'll see temperatures climb into the mid-to-upper 60s Sunday afternoon with this warming trend continuing into next week. While the weather remains quiet, the upper-level pattern continues to be fairly unstable with a series of shortwaves moving through amplifying warm-air advection across our area Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures potentially reach near 80 by Wednesday afternoon. We're watching another deep trough forecast to slide down the West Coast and deepen through the week next week. Weak shortwaves ahead of the main trough Wednesday and Thursday could bring a low chance of showers or storms. Our next good chance for more widespread showers and storms looks to be later next week with the arrival of the main trough. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Morning MVFR ceilings have lifted to VFR early this afternoon. Gusty north winds with peak gusts between 30-35 kts continue. Wind speeds gradually decrease this afternoon, becoming light during the evening. Light north winds tonight will swap back around to the south during Saturday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ043-055- 056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Chehak  160 FXUS66 KPQR 161735 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1035 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...Conditions remain dry with well above average temperatures. Easterly winds will gradually weaken as a trough approaches. A weak cold front will bring chances for light rain late tonight into Saturday morning, before high pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. The next chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday with an approaching low pressure system, although guidance continues to trend drier. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday Night...Upper level ridging will continue shifting east as troughing over the northeast Pacific and Alaska progresses eastward. Conditions remain dry across the region with another day of above normal temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 70s across the interior lowlands, 10-15 degrees above the normal low to mid 60s. Highs along the coast will be much closer to normal as the offshore pressure gradient continues to weaken, allowing westerly onshore flow to return and marine stratus to push into the coast. Highs expected to top out in the low to mid 60s. High level clouds will also increase through the day as the upper level trough progresses. The offshore pressure gradient between Troutdale and the Dalles will continue to weaken through the day which will gradually decrease easterly winds to less than 10 mph by the afternoon. An embedded shortwave trough passing to the north will glance the region, sending a cold front through the area tonight and into Saturday morning. This will bring moderate to low chances of light rain to northern portions of the forecast area for Saturday morning. Mean QPF values range from a trace to 0.10 inch, generally north of Lincoln City at the coast and from the Portland metro area northward, with highest chances for rain in the southwest WA Cascades. Conditions expected to dry out by the afternoon with northerly winds behind the front. Highs will be closer to normal, topping out in the mid to upper 60s across the interior valleys. Will need to keep an eye on Saturday night as clouds clear and temperatures drop into the 30s. Outside of the Cascades, the coolest temperatures are expected in the Upper Hood River Valley. -19/DH && .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Dry weather expected on Sunday as flow aloft becomes more zonal with the passage of the shortwave trough. Highs very similar to Saturday peaking in the mid 60s for most interior lowlands and mid 50s to low 60s along the coast. Sunday night into Monday morning will bring another chance for frost in the Upper Hood River Valley and the southern Willamette Valley as lows could drop into the mid to upper 30s. Cluster analysis continues to depict a trough impacting the region Monday and Tuesday but trends have the trough taking a more southeast trajectory and just glancing NW OR and SW WA. Approximately 40% of ensemble members have light QPF for the Portland area while 60% of members have light QPF around Newport. Models continue to track this trough more towards northern California, limiting any decent rainfall across the forecast area. Chances for 24-hour rainfall totals exceeding 0.25 inches between 5 AM Monday to 5 AM Tuesday have dropped to 10-15% along the coast and coast range, southern Willamette Valley, and the OR Cascade Foothills. By Wednesday, ensembles show the upper trough swinging into central California, while weak high pressure shifts over the Pacific Northwest, favoring predominately dry conditions. At the same time, it does appear that another upper-level trough will begin to approach British Columbia and potentially make its way down into the Pacific Northwest late next week, returning chances for precipitation. -19/DH && .AVIATION...Through 18z Saturday...Largely VFR conditions expected through 00z Sat along the coast and through 12z Sat inland. High cloud coverage will tend to increase ahead of an approaching front. Marine stratus will see 70-90% chances for IFR cigs at coastal terminals after 00-03z Sat, before chances for rain increase after 06-09z Sat. Highest confidence in rain is along the north OR/south WA coast (KAST, KTMK). Inland, chances for MVFR cigs reach 60-70% after 12z Sat while the chances for rain peak at 30-60% from 12-15z Sat. Gusty east winds continue through the western Columbia Gorge, supporting continued gusts to 20-30 kt at KTTD into this afternoon before the offshore pressure gradient eases as the frontal boundary approaches. Elsewhere, light winds inland and west to northwest winds along the coast will turn out of the south to southwest at around 5 kt ahead of the frontal passage. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with increasing high cloud cover through this evening and into tonight. A passing front will bring chances for MVFR cigs and light rain from 12-15z Sat. Light east winds may reach the terminal this afternoon before turning southerly ahead of the frontal passage tonight. -36 && .MARINE...Benign marine conditions continue. Northwest winds turn southerly this afternoon into the evening as a weak front passes through. Winds turn back to the northwest on Saturday behind the front. Seas remain around 4-7 ft at 10-12 seconds through early Saturday morning. A steeper northwesterly swell arrives this weekend, building seas to 7-9 ft by Saturday evening and 10-13 ft early next week. Uncertainty remains on how high seas will rise early next week due to uncertainty on the track of the low pressure system associated with the swell. There is a 15-30% chance for seas exceeding 15 ft on Monday, with the highest chances beyond 30-40 NM. Will also note that the long periods from the swells will result in a moderate sneaker wave threat Friday into early next week. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -19/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  763 FXUS61 KBUF 161729 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 129 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze Watch issued for counties where the growing season remains from late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain and gusty winds through this evening. 2) Much colder tonight through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. 3) An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday and lasts most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain and gusty winds through this evening. A sharp mid level trough will continue to advance east across the Great Lakes through tonight. An associated surface low will steadily deepen as it moves down the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight to the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. A strong cold front crossing the region will exit by mid afternoon. The better moisture and dynamics will be out ahead of the front, but a strong right entrance region jet dynamics will lag behind the passage of the cold front, allowing for periods of light rain and showers to continue this afternoon and evening in wake of the cold front. The strongest winds have already occurred across the area, but westerly wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will continue this afternoon before turning northwesterly and diminishing further this evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much colder tonight through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. Strong cold advection will develop tonight in the wake of the departing low, with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the -5C to -8C range by Saturday morning. The cold air aloft will support increasing lake induced instability overnight with a brief lake response, but short NNW fetch and a rapidly drying synoptic scale airmass will keep lake effect muted and brief. Lake effect and upslope rain showers will develop southeast of the lakes tonight, with a few wet snowflakes possibly mixing in very late tonight through early Saturday morning before the lake effect showers quickly end by late morning. The best chance of a few snowflakes will be across higher terrain, but no accumulation is expected. The coldest airmass of the fall season so far will arrive for Saturday, with highs only in the 40s areawide, and even upper 30s across the highest terrain despite some afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will drop back into the lower 30s on the lake plains and 20s well inland Saturday night, with frost/freeze conditions likely. A freeze watch has been issued for counties where the growing season remains. KEY MESSAGE 3...An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday and lasts most of next week. High pressure will drift from the Ohio Valley to southern New England Sunday, with southwesterly return flow quickly removing the brief shot of colder air. Temperatures will rebound into the 55 to 60 degree range by afternoon following the cold start. A strong ridge surface and aloft will then take up residence early next week across much of the central and eastern CONUS, while a slow moving cutoff low remains parked off the Carolina coast much of the week. This pattern will support dry weather most, or even all of next week with abundant sunshine and temperatures a little above average. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Passing surface low pressure system across southern Canada this morning, is dragging its warm and cold frontal boundaries across the western and north central New York regions as of noon. As a response, multiple waves of showers result, with the heaviest rainfall now exiting east of the region. Additional showers will persist in the wake of the front this afternoon. Overall, expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings, supporting MVFR conditions to persist across the lower terrain to IFR across the higher elevations. Gusty winds will persist this afternoon despite the cold frontal passage. Speaking of which, with the cold front now to the east of KROC, winds have shifted to the west/northwest. This wind shift will soon happen at KART as the front is knocking on their western door. Wind gusts will continue to range in the 20 to 30 knot range. Tonight, colder air will spill into the region and result in strong lake induced instability to develop. However, with a rapidly drying airmass overhead, expect a muted and brief lake response. Lake effect clouds will produce areas of MVFR CIGS overnight, with scattered showers southeast of the lakes and across higher terrain from lake effect and upslope. It will become cold enough to allow some wet snowflakes to mix in very late tonight, mainly across higher terrain. Outlook... Saturday...Areas of MVFR CIGS and scattered rain/wet snow showers early, improving to VFR. Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Steadily deepening low pressure will move down the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight to the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. Elevated west and northwest winds in the 20 to 30 knot range will continue on both lakes through Saturday morning, before quickly diminishing Saturday afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. High end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Saturday morning on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NYZ001>005-010-011. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...EAL MARINE...TMA  079 FXUS61 KPBZ 161754 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 154 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some strong storms moving across the area associated with the cold front. A Freeze Watch was issued for Saturday night due to the high probability for temperatures to drop at/below 32F. No other significant changes at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers, thunderstorms, and gusty wind today. 2) Colder with frost and freeze conditions Saturday night, with frost possible again Sunday night 3) Dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In northern West Virginia (east of Wetzel County), building instability and the shear should result in a potential for storms to produce damaging wind gusts as the front crosses. There is some veering in the lower levels, with some limited potential for brief rotation should parameters briefly align, though the main threat should be from damaging wind gusts. The front should exit to the east by 4-5 PM, ending the severe storm potential for the following counties: Fayette (PA), Marion (WV), Monongalia (WV), Preston (WV), and Tucker (WV). Gusty winds are also expected outside of any convection, with a tight pressure gradient and mixing. However, there is only a 20% chance that gusts will exceed 30 mph tonight in areas of eastern Ohio. For areas along the higher terrain, gusts around 40 mph across the higher terrain, there is about a 50%-60% chance for gusts to exceed 30 mph tonight. The deepening upper-level trough is forecast to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight into tomorrow morning. Some lake enhancement is also possible as cold advection occurs. The precipitation should be tapering off by the time the coldest air arrives Saturday morning. There is a potential for a few snowflakes mixing in north of I-80 and in the ridges due to temperatures dropping into the upper 30s, otherwise, no snow is expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... The upper-level trough should exit the East Coast by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, as the surface low deepens/closes off the Carolina coast. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the Upper Ohio Valley region, with light wind and mainly clear skies. This should result in efficient radiational cooling Saturday night resulting in a frost/freeze potential. A Freeze Watch has been issued for region effective on Saturday night. Some frost will be possible again Sunday night with surface high pressure overhead. KEY MESSAGE 3... Model ensembles indicate the upper-level closed low will break away from the trough and persist off of the SE Coast. Over the Western CONUS, another upper-level trough will become relatively stationary by Tuesday, following a Tropical Storm Simon. Areas from the Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region should be under a ridge, with dry weather expected from Sunday into late next week. Temperatures are also expected to moderate back to near or just above seasonable levels by mid week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A surface cold front will exit the region shortly after the 18z TAF issuance, resulting in ending the risks for gusts 30-45kts and heavier rain associated with its showers/thunderstorms. Broad ascent with the deepening trough to the SSW will favor fairly widespread light rain showers/drizzle through at least 00z with cigs occasionally varying between low MVFR to low VFR and limited visibility impacts. A reinforcing front causing a northerly wind shift aft 00z may result in a second wave of rain that better lowers visibility and offers low probability IFR cig chances. Though drying and subtle cig rises begin after this second frontal passage, cold advection coupled with warm lake waters may result in narrow bands of lake enhanced showers that maintain (or further lower) the fairly predominant MVFR stratus on going. Outlook... Lifting/breaking of residual MVFR to VFR stratocu expected by 14z Saturday as high pressure and ridging build over the region, with clear skies likely by 00z. There is high probability for a prolonged period of VFR dry weather through next week, save for potential for localized morning river valley fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM/Lupo AVIATION...Frazier  669 FXUS62 KRAH 161727 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 125 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * IFR ceilings are now forecast at RDU, FAY, and RWI late tonight into Saturday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 325 AM Friday... 1) Record heat today will be swept offshore by a strong cold front and following sharply cooler and wet conditions that will develop tonight into Sat. 2) There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. && .DISCUSSION... As of 325 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Record heat today will be swept offshore by a strong cold front and following sharply cooler and wet conditions that will develop tonight into Sat. An increasingly-phased and high amplitude trough, apparent in GOES-E WV satellite data from nrn Hudson Bay to the cntl High Plains, will pivot across the ern US through late Sat-Sat night. A vigorous upper jet and front will accompany the trough, with a zone of strong and deep ascent that will overspread cntl NC tonight-Sat. At the surface, a backdoor front has drifted into the nrn Sandhills and the nw Piedmont this morning, about 20-30 miles farther swwd than previously forecast. While low overcast has developed within the pos-trontal regime and would typically slow/retard subsequent nwd retreat of the front, cooling behind the front and the related frontal inversion are not pronounced. Additionally, the MSL pressure pattern surrounding the front over the srn Middle Atlantic, between a 1021 mb high drifting off the coast of New England and a ~1019 mb one off the South Atlantic coast, appear to be reaching equilibrium this morning. As such, it remains likely that the front will retreat quickly nwd with the onset of diurnal heating, in strengthening flow and mass response ahead of the intense trough aloft and a related surface cyclone now deepening across MI. A pre-frontal, Appalachian- lee trough will sharpen across the nw Piedmont this afternoon and precede a strong cold front that will sweep across cntl NC tonight. A growing warm sector throughout cntl NC today will yield yet another day of record temperatures mostly between 85-90 F, accompanied by a gusty swly surface wind that will develop with daytime heating/mixing by midday-early afternoon. Scattered showers are likely to develop along the pre-frontal trough over the nw Piedmont by ~21-22Z, in a regime of weak MLCAPE of generally less than 500 J/kg, but where instability will be relatively maximized as cooling temperatures aloft edge east of the Appalachians. The band of showers will spread ewd and across the remainder of cntl NC this evening, along and immediately following the passing cold front. Anafrontal precipitation character will become increasingly stratiform and probably blossom after midnight, as the intense mid and upper-level trough and jet, and deep zone of Fgen, overspread the Carolinas. The precipitation band will then edge from west to east across cntl NC during the day Sat, with storm total rainfall amounts mostly between a quarter and half inch. It will otherwise turn sharply cooler, with highs Sat 25-30 F below those of today and about 10-15 F below average. A strong and gusty nly wind will make it feel even cooler. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold Saturday and Sunday nights, with some patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. Aloft, it is looking increasingly likely a low will close off within the parent trough as it tracks sewd across the region and offshore Sat/Sat night, though there remain differences wrt where and when that will occur. The low will likely sit/meander near or just off the Carolina/mid-Atlantic coast through much of the week. At the surface, the ~1036 mb high should lift newd from the OH Valley to the Canadian Maritimes Sat night through Sun night, while the ridge continues to extend swwd across the region. A low is expected to develop offshore, along the front, on Sat before cutting off from the parent trough and deepening as it meanders off the Southeast US/Carolina coast through at least Sun night, possibly through much of the week. However, a good bit of uncertainty remains wrt to this low and its impacts for central NC. Expect breezy conditions on Sun, with a strong pressure gradient between the deepening low offshore and the ridge over the area. The LLJ could remain quite stout on the back (NW) side of the low offshore through Sun night, with gusts of 25-35 kts possible with mixing on Sun, highest east. The jet may be stronger overnight (25-40 kts) both nights and over a much larger area, but those stronger winds are generally not expected to mix down to the surface. Still, some gusts of 15-25 kts cannot be ruled out Sun night given the latest guidance showing a little mixing overnight. There remains a fair amount of spread in the statistical guidance between high and low members for temperatures from Sat night onward, given the uncertainty wrt the low offshore and subsequent impacts. For highs, Sunday should be the coolest day, with highs in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees expected. Highs should rebound a bit on Mon, but still remain below normal, with low to mid 60s forecast. For lows, with continued breezy conditions, generally decreasing cloud cover, and low-level thicknesses around 1320 dam Sat night, will err on the mean for lows, ranging from mid-upper 30s NW to mid 40s SE. With partly cloudy skies, perhaps slightly less breezy conditions, and low-level thicknesses increasing to around 1335 dam Sun night, expect similar lows ranging from upper 30s NW to mid 40s SE Mon morn. With the expected winds overnight/early morning, wind chill values in the low-mid 30s expected across much of the area Sat night, increasing slightly SE into the low 40s SE for Sun night. There could be some mid 30s lows in the usual cooler, sheltered areas of the Piedmont Sun and Mon mornings, especially if the skies clear out, possibly resulting in some patchy frost. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 125 PM Friday... TAF period: This afternoon, all terminals will have VFR conditions with gusty wind out of the southwest. A pre-frontal band during the late afternoon and evening could bring a round of convective showers to all sites with brief restrictions and stronger wind gusts. The shift to northwest wind with a cold front will occur late this evening at INT/GSO and after midnight at the other terminals, with MVFR ceilings and stratiform rain moving in through the night. It appears that INT/GSO should not drop below MVFR cigs, but RDU/RWI/FAY now all have IFR cigs in their newest forecast. Gusts may slacken slightly overnight, but considering the potency of the cold front, once gusts begin this afternoon, they may continue all the way through the TAF period. Outlook: All sites are likely to have showers and MVFR ceilings come to an end by Saturday evening. A surface low is forecast to develop along the cold front once it reaches the Atlantic Ocean, which could result in several days of intermittent showers at FAY/RWI, although confidence is low as to whether MVFR ceilings would also be present. Northerly wind gusts between 20-30 kt will also be possible each afternoon, with the lowest gusts at INT/GSO and the highest gusts at RWI. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/14/2026 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWS/KCPAVIATION...Green  453 FXUS63 KABR 161723 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1223 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -The winds will pick up again tonight into Saturday, with a 30-50% chance for gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the Sisseton Hills. -Low temperatures tonight into Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 30s. These temperatures could cause frost to form overnight before the winds pick up. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 1016 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Made a few minor changes to the forecast today, mainly to decrease the sky cover some and lower wind speeds and gusts. UPDATE Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds have been gusting up around 45-55 mph overnight as a stronger winds aloft are pushed to the surface by cold air advecting into central and northeastern SD. These winds will slowly be decreasing from west to east through the early morning, with wind gusts over northeastern SD decreasing below 30 mph by mid morning. The stronger winds aloft have also been able to interact with some moisture aloft and cause some scattered showers to develop overnight and move through the area. As the winds die back early this morning, so does the ability for these showers to develop. Through the day, drier air aloft will be moving in as high surface pressure shifts over SD. Both the drier air and high pressure will help to finally erode the clouds that have been stuck over central and northeastern SD and west central MN, and we will have some clear skies by the afternoon. Those clear skies will help to cool temperatures tonight into Saturday morning into the mid to low 30s. These cold temperatures could help frost to form over northeastern SD and west central MN tonight. This frost will have to form during the early overnight hours, because as the high pressure moves out this evening, strong southerly winds will move in over the area. These stronger winds will disrupt the frost formation, and can keep the frost from forming into early Saturday morning. These winds will be gusting up around 25-30mph across central and northeastern SD overnight. Additionally, as these winds reach the Prairie Coteau, they could become stronger due to downsloping winds. There is a 30-50% chance for wind gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the coteau Saturday morning. A wind advisory might be needed for these areas into early Saturday afternoon because of this. Warmer temperatures will be moving in Saturday from the southerly winds, which will help to warm temperatures about 5-15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year Saturday and Sunday. The downsloping winds from the southwesterly direction will continue into Saturday night. Then, a surface trough will then be moving through SD Sunday, shifting the winds to be coming from the north and decreasing the downsloping effects along the coteau. The drier air that moves in today will stick around through the beginning of the week and will help to keep precipitation from developing as the surface trough move through on Sunday, as well as into the beginning of the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals through the valid TAF period. Northerly winds with gusts of 15 to 25 knots at KABR and KATY will subside later this afternoon, before shifting to the southwest tonight. All terminals will see south-southwesteasterly winds with gusts exceeding 15-20 knots later tonight into Saturday morning. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ020>023. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ006>008-011-018-019. MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...17 DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...17  198 FXUS63 KAPX 161716 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 116 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy with lingering shower chances into this evening. - Breezy to windy again at times Saturday afternoon through Sunday. - Warming trend begins Sunday and continues into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low pressure that crossed lower MI last night is now situated well downstream in far southern Quebec/just north of upstate NY. Pressure gradient has tightened significantly this morning between that departing low and high pressure to our west -- this'll remain the case through this evening. Parent trough axis to the ongoing late week inclement weather is in the process of crossing the western Great Lakes this afternoon and early evening, with mid-upper level heights rising in its wake for the weekend. By Saturday afternoon through Sunday, northern MI will lie on the northern periphery of ~1032mb sfc high pressure centered to our south. Meanwhile, low pressure is expected to be crossing well to our north across parts of northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba/Ontario. A tightening pressure gradient locally will be the result once again, with renewed breezy to windy conditions. High pressure largely expected to remain in control all the way through the middle of next week before shower chances return toward the very tail end of the forecast period as a northern stream system looks to pass by to our north. Forecast Details: Stronger dynamics are in the process of shifting south and east out of northern MI this afternoon, largely taking any synoptically driven rain showers along with it. However, strong cold advection supporting increased overlake instability on the surrounding Great Lakes will likely keep at least scattered shower activity across parts of the forecast area into this evening (most numerous through sunset in the typical NNW flow lake belts). Still a non-zero chance that a few wet snowflakes mix in after sunset, primarily across the typically colder higher terrain/ interior areas of north-central lower MI -- that's if these areas can materialize a few lingering showers, something that's not favored given northerly low-level winds. Otherwise, windy conditions remain through this evening as well with gusts as high as 25-40 mph area-wide (highest near the lakeshores). Winds relax mid-evening through early Saturday morning. More sunshine expected for the weekend ahead, but breezy to windy conditions expected to return by Saturday afternoon lasting through the day on Sunday as northern MI becomes sandwiched between high pressure centered to our south and low pressure crossing well to the north. Winds largely out of the southwest through this time frame, gusting as high as 20-30 mph on Saturday, and 25-35+ mph at times on Sunday. Daytime highs on Saturday in the low-mid 50s moderate on Sunday -- largely ranging from the upper 50s far north to the low- mid 60s across much of northern lower. This warming trend from Sunday continues into at least the middle of next week as Pacific-dominant flow pattern should allow temperatures to remain above normal for mid-October. Highs Monday through Wednesday largely in the 60s area-wide, but a few spots climbing into the low 70s seem pretty likely. Next rain chances look to hold off until Thursday as a northern stream wave is progged to pass by to our north. Doesn't appear this will be a big rain maker, but may put a damper on temperatures. Even so, no glaring signals for a return of below or even near normal temperatures through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 706 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Dealing with gusty north to northwest winds today through the early evening...gusts around 30kts expected starting late morning before diminishing in the 0000Z-0300Z time window. Plenty of prevailing MVFR conditions expected in both ceilings and visibilities...with some occasional periods of IFR especially in heavier rain showers. Flight conditions are expected to improve to prevailing VFR in the 2100Z to 0300Z time frame. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJG AVIATION...JPB  568 FXUS63 KBIS 161725 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low humidity and increasing southerly winds will result in near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening over far southwest North Dakota. - Dry and mild over most locations this weekend through the middle of next week. - Unsettled weather possibly returns late next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Quiet weather and clear skies are found over all of western and central North Dakota at the time of this mid day update. South to southwest winds are beginning to develop as the pressure gradient tightens up over the northern Plains, and are expected to become breezy with sustained speeds up to 15 to 20 MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH this afternoon. The forecast remains in good shape. UPDATE Issued at 945 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 It's a cold morning across western and central North Dakota, with some locations over western North Dakota having dropped as low as 15 degrees overnight. More broadly, lows have been in the lower 20s to lower 30s across much of the forecast area, with all but the far southern James River Valley dropping to or below freezing. The Freeze Warning across the west and much of central North Dakota has been extended through 10Z (10 AM CDT / 09 AM MDT) this morning, and will be allowed to expire on time as temperatures have begun rising following the sun. Otherwise, no major adjustments to the forecast were performed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Going forecast remains in good shape as northwest winds continue to diminish. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current surface analysis places low over the eastern Great Lakes region while high settles through the eastern Montana/Wyoming and the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis places trough over the upper Midwest, while ridge stretches from the northern Sierra northward into the Canadian Rockies. Over our area, winds continue to gradually diminish from west to east with the high sliding through. In addition, where winds have tapered off and skies have cleared over our northern/western areas, temperatures have dipped below freezing, thus the Freeze Warning remains in places. For today, surface high settles southeast with return flow setting up over western parts of our area, with southerly winds increasing. Upper ridge pushes east as a notable wave over the northern Pacific approaches shore. This will bring clearing skies and dry conditions to our area. Over far southwest North Dakota, humidity values are expected to dip into the 20s, which combined with the expected southerly winds will result in near critical fire weather conditions. On Saturday, upper ridge pushes over our area while aforementioned Pacific wave quickly passes over the Canadian Rockies pushing into the western Canadian Prairies late day. Surface low closes off over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan in response, with winds shifting southwesterly over our area. Temperatures will climb to about 10 to 20 degrees above average, warmest over the southwest where highs in the mid 70s are expected, with mainly lower 60s to lower 70s elsewhere. Upper wave continues its eastward push flattening out the ridge, while a modest cold front passes through our area as surface low works its way towards Hudson Bay late Saturday night into early Sunday. Though conditions remain dry, temperatures will be cooler with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Zonal flow remains in place to start the work week, with flow turning southwesterly towards mid-week as a Pacific low drops down along the West Coast. Conditions remain dry, with a very gradual warming trend over our area. Guidancethen suggests that the low shifts easterly and opens up late week. Though the timing of this is a bit variable, it does bring precipitation chances to the forecast late week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period. LLWS is expected at KMOT, KBIS, KJMS early this evening until just after midnight CST. Gusty south to southwest winds are expected to develop over portions of western and central North Dakota this afternoon through this evening, with sustained speeds up to 20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots, before somewhat diminishing overnight through Saturday morning. Winds will redevelop across central North Dakota late Saturday through the end of TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam/JJS DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Adam  627 FXUS63 KGID 161726 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sub-Freezing temperatures likely tonight-Saturday morning across the area. A Freeze Watch is in effect 1-9am. - Highs in the 50s today with northerly winds gusting 30-45mph this morning, strongest across northeastern portions of the area. - After a cold start to the day on Saturday, temperatures climb back into the 60s Saturday/Sunday. - Seasonably warm and largely dry weather expected next week with highs climbing into the 70s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 It's a chilly and windy morning across the area. Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the low 40s with northerly winds gusting 30-45mph. As the back edge of the departing trough/low swings over the area this morning, low stratus with a few embedded showers will slide across northeastern portions of the area. Any rain from these showers will be little more than sprinkles, but showers could bring gustier winds to the surface. Any sprinkles should come to an end by the mid morning hours (9-10am). Northerly winds gusting 30-45mph are expected to continue throughout the morning hours, with the strongest gusts across east/northeastern portions of the area. Winds steadily drop off this afternoon as the deepening low over the Midwest moves into the eastern U.S. and a high pressure system sets up over the area. Seasonably cool temperatures are expected today with highs topping out in the low 50s. Skies will be partly-mostly cloudy to start the day, with skies becoming clear by the late afternoon-early evening. Under the influence of a seasonably cool airmass, clear skies, and light winds, temperatures will quickly drop after sunset. This will result in the seasons first freeze across the area. The freeze watch will likely be converted to a freeze warning later today as confidence is fairly high in widespread sub-freezing temperatures (26-31 degrees) tonight-Saturday morning. Can't rule out northwestern portions of the area climbing back above freezing by sunrise as warm air advection moves into the area, though at least a few hours of sub-freezing temperatures are still favored for these locations. After a cold start to the day, temperatures climb back towards normal by the afternoon with highs in the low 60s. Winds will be breezy during the daytime hours, gusting 20-35mph. Temperatures dip back into the upper 30s Sunday morning, though frost/freezing conditions are not anticipated. Breezy and seasonable weather continues Sunday with highs in the 60s. Otherwise the forecast remains on track through the end of the forecast period. Temperatures steadily climb throughout next week with highs in the 70s-low 80s by the middle-end of the week. Largely dry weather is anticipated through the middle of next week though can't completely rule out some low PoPs as disturbances move through the southwesterly flow aloft. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain from this morning is moving out of our area to the northeast with drier conditions now expected for most of the area, though some sprinkles could still fall in our northwestern areas. A cold front currently over the Sandhills will move southeast over our area this afternoon bringing steady north-northwesterly winds that could gust 30-40 MPH and clearing the clouds. While temps cool slightly behind the front, the steady winds prevents the temps from falling underneath the frosting threshold overnight for the majority of the area, with lows staying in the upper 30s-low 40s. A few portions in our north and west do drop into the frost thresholds, however the steady winds will prevent frost from forming. The steady north-northwesterly winds continue through the daytime Friday bringing cool air down from the north and keeping highs in the low-mid 50s. Northern and eastern portions of the area will have some clouds in the morning but they clear in the afternoon. After sunset the winds begin to subside and with clear skies, temperatures are able to cool much more efficiently than the night before. Widespread lows in the upper 20s-low 30s are possible which would bring the first frost/freeze to the area. Southern portions of the area, especially north central KS, could stay warm enough to prevent a full freeze however, most models keep temps in the 30-34 range so the entire area is included in a Freeze Watch. The upper level troughing that had brought the cooler air to the area begins to move east and a slight ridging pattern begins to setup into the weekend. As the ridging pattern builds into the area, temperatures will begin to warm again starting Saturday with highs reaching back into the upper 50s-low 60s. Temperatures continue to warm into next week with highs reaching the upper 60s-70s starting Sunday and could even flirt with 80 degrees in north central Kansas mid-week. Also, as the ridging persists over the area precip chances will remain low, though some models have chances returning mid-week. Aside from the low mid-week precip chances the area will largely remain dry through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Gusty winds out of the north today will soon lighten as the evening approaches. Higher pressure moving through the area today and tonight will help these winds become light to even calm tonight between mainly 2-8z. Across this period in time, the surface winds will switch from a northerly to southwesterly (around 200 degrees) direction. Winds should gradually increase across the Saturday morning to early afternoon hours with speeds nearing 12-15kts and with gusts as high as 25-30kts around midday Saturday. Otherwise, the MVFR cloud base has seemed to scattered enough out this afternoon to prevent ceilings from redeveloping. VFR conditions should now prevail as cloud coverage is expected to remain minimal across the next 24hours. No precipitation is expected. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ UPDATE...Davis DISCUSSION...McGrew AVIATION...Stump  772 FXUS63 KLMK 161729 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 129 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * A cold front pushes through our area early this morning, and will bring breezy winds, falling temperatures, and scattered light rain showers as it passes. * Cool temperatures linger throughout the weekend, with a chance for frost Sunday morning. * After today's light rain, dry weather is expected over the weekend and next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ===== Cold Front Passage Today ===== An upper level trough is situated over the central US this morning, and will be the driving force for a sfc low over the Great Lakes to eventually bring a cold front through our area later this morning. Early on, cloud cover is on the increase ahead of this boundary, which is expected to bring low stratus over the area by sunrise and through the morning hours. Temps have been holding steady this morning so far, with readings hovering in the mid-70s since last evening. However, SPC mesoanalysis shows the sfc boundary has passed through the St. Louis area, with KBLV showing a nearly 20F temperature drop in just 3 hours, showcasing the strong CAA following just behind this front this morning. Today will feature some interesting weather as the front passes through later on this morning. First, expect temps to drop throughout the day as CAA regime takes over with FROPA. Our highest temps of the day likely are occurring early this morning within the warmer pre- frontal airmass. Second, guidance supports this FROPA to feature an anafront, with the majority of precip occurring after the boundary pushes through. Mid-level vorticity max lags behind with the trough axis, displacing the better forcing aloft later this morning. Additionally, low level moisture will outrun the better forcing, leading to mainly light rain showers this morning, and lingering eats of I-65 this afternoon. Total QPF is expected to be less than 0.10" for most today. Our probabilistic precip forecast has a general 30% chance of exceeding 0.1" today, and less than a 15% of exceeding 0.25". Third, winds will become quite breezy today due to the compact sfc pressure gradient with the frontal passage. NW wind gusts up to 25-30 mph will be possible, and will also boost the CAA infiltration. ===== Cooler Fall Air Finally Arrives This Weekend ===== With the help of the FROPA today, we'll finally break the hold that the above normal temperatures had on our region and start feeling some seasonable temperatures by the weekend. Upper ridging and a large dome of high pressure will expand across the central US, and with our cooler post-frontal airmass in place, much cooler temps are expected over the weekend and into next week. High pressure will keep us dry over the next several days as well. Expect highs on Saturday in the 50s, though a touch warmer on Sunday with temps peaking into the 60s. The main feature to keep tabs on over the weekend will be the high potential for frost Sunday morning with morning lows forecast down into the 30s. No Frost Advisory yet with this forecast package, but confidence seems high enough that we'll eventually need one sometime before Saturday night. Temperatures will gradually climb back into the low 70s by late next week. There are no precip chances through next week as sfc high pressure keeps a strong hold over a large portion of the country. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 129 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front has passed through the region and MVFR CIGs remain this afternoon. CIGs will briefly improve this afternoon before another round of MVFR CIGs move in from the north. Skies will clearin the morning from northwest to southeast. Intermittent gusts up to 25kts will continue through the afternoon. At times, gusts may subside. Through the overnight hours, winds will remain breezy and will steadily veer to from the north. Light rain showers will end by this evening. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJP AVIATION...SRW  875 FXUS63 KLSX 161748 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 1248 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Frost Advisory is in effect Friday night across portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois where confidence is highest in widespread temperatures in the mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A highly amplified trough can be seen in water vapor imagery currently digging equatorward into the Midwest. The cold front associated with this trough and the one responsible for yesterday's rain has cleared the CWA to the southeast, with deepening northwesterly flow ushering in a fall-like air mass. This air mass will bring notably cooler temperatures compared to what we've been experiencing as of late, with a muted diurnal curve today leading to temperatures topping out in the low to mid 50s; some 20-30 degrees cooler than values on Thursday. Dry conditions are expected for most locations today, with the axis of the upper-level trough only producing a 20- 30% chance of light rain for areas east of the Mississippi River as it pivots overhead during the afternoon. Tonight, high pressure at the surface will settle into the Central and Southern Plains; nosing into the Middle Mississippi Valley. As a result, the pressure gradient will slacken and winds become light to calm as skies gradually clear from north to south. This will make for ideal frost conditions across portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois, where radiational cooling will allow for widespread lows in the mid-30s - the temperature threshold generally needed for frost development. Where confidence is highest in these conditions occurring, a Frost Advisory is now in effect late Friday night through early Saturday morning. Thanks to the upper-level trough moving further eastward of the region Saturday, low to mid-level temperatures will bounce back by a few degrees C compared to their Friday minimum. Between this and clear skies allowing for abundant insolation, afternoon temperatures will warm to around 60 degrees, which is still about 10 degrees below seasonal normals. There is a low threat (40%) for additional frost across portions of southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois Saturday night, and will be dependent on where the aforementioned surface high is relative to the CWA then. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Thanks to consensus among ensemble clusters and deterministic guidance, confidence is high in a benign and uneventful pattern through the upcoming workweek. Continuous troughing over the West Coast and ridging to our east-southeast will keep upper-level flow weakly southwesterly through this portion of the period. This supports warm air advection, though subtly given the weakness of the flow. As a result, daily temperatures will only gradually warm through the workweek. Values closer to seasonal normals are at least expected through the first half of the workweek, but how much warmer we climb toward the end of the week is uncertain. The NBM pushes afternoon highs to around 80 degrees Thursday and Friday, though that is roughly 5 degrees warmer than the 75th percentile of ensemble guidance. This is due to the bias- corrected guidance composing the NBM, and this guidance is several degrees warmer than their non-biased counterparts. Given the bias factor applied here may be too warm given our seasonal cooling, confidence is low in the NBM's late-week temperature forecast. Given the weakness of the flow aloft and lack of any notable disturbances in deterministic guidance, confidence is high in dry conditions prevailing through this portion of the period. This is supported by nearly all ensemble members showing this stretch being rain-free. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Low stratus associated with an upper-level trough is impacting the region creating MVFR ceilings. These MVFR ceilings are to the northwest of the St. Louis metro terminals, but are moving to the southeast and will impact the terminals this afternoon. There are some isolated showers that could impact the St. Louis metro terminals, but confidence is low that they will be directly impacted. As a result, VCSH was included to account for the possibility. Winds at all terminals are expected to remain gusty through the day. As high pressure moves into the region from the west overnight, winds will become calm and the ceilings will rise to VFR eventually giving way to clear skies. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ018-019- 026-027-034>036-042-052. IL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ058>060- 095>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...Elmore LONG TERM...Elmore AVIATION...Asel/BSH  629 FXUS63 KPAH 161726 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dramatically cooler today as a strong cold front sweeps through. Highs are forecast 27 to 32 degrees colder than yesterday. - Saturday night still looks to have a high potential for a first frost across most of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s. - Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to around or slightly above normal by mid week amid dry and settled weather with warm days and cool nights. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A very strong cold front is moving int the northwestern part of the CWA this morning. Along the front a few showers will remain possible through early morning but the main impact will be starkly lower temperatures and gusty winds. Wind gusts 30-35 mph are occurring immediately behind the front before tapering back to 20 to 25 mph. Today will feel much different from yesterday with highs likely struggling to break 60 during the day underneath fairly persistent low clouds. Behind the large shortwave trough pushing this front strong upper ridging builds in. Fairly breezy northwest winds are expected to persist through much of the day Saturday before the surface reflection of the upper ridge axis passes overhead Saturday night. At that point strong radiational cooling conditions set up with dewpoints in the low to mid 30s. Frost looks likely for a sizable chunk of the CWA, with a freeze very much possible in southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. For messaging clarity will not issue a Frost Advisory with this shift but one will likely be required for at least part, if not all, of the CWA by Saturday night. Deep layer ridging looks to control the pattern for the remainder of the forecast period. With dry, and settled conditions with low humidity and large diurnal temperature swings, highs in the mid 70s lows in the mid 40s which is close to seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 There is a brief period of VFR cigs (though still only around 3500 ft) this afternoon, then cigs come back down to MVFR around or just after sunset. Drier air begins to move in overnight and will lift cigs back to VFR and will slowly start to scatter out the cloud deck. Clear skies are expected by mid morning tomorrow. Breezy northwest winds continue this afternoon and into the overnight with gusts up to around 25 kts at times. Winds turn more northerly overnight, then northeasterly tomorrow morning. Slightly less breezy conditions are expected tomorrow. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...HICKFORD  611 FXUS64 KJAN 161726 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant threat for fire danger conditions continue through the weekend. Red Flag Warnings are in effect today, with a fire weather watch on Saturday. - Very little, if any, rainfall is expected through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 An upper trough over the northern plains is poised to move southeast into the region today and this will drag a strong cold front across the area this afternoon. With little moisture to work with, this boundary will be dry with the main effect being gusty northwest winds. The main concern today will be the very dry conditions that persist across the area combined with the gusty winds. A red flag warning is in affect for the entire area this afternoon. The gusty northerly winds will continue on Saturday and along with min RH's in the low to mid 30 percent range a fire weather watch has also been issued. The dry weather will continue through the period and with min RH's in the upper 20 percent range on Sunday and Monday, at least a limited fire weather risk will continue into next week. No rain is expected through the end of next week./15/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 All TAF sites are reporting VFR conditions as of 1726Z. VFR conditions will prevail through the whole period. Gusty northwesterly winds will persist across all sites, with gusts in excess of 30 knots as a cold front sweeps across the area. Low- level wind shear will occur across most TAF sites starting around 01Z Saturday and will prevail through 13Z Saturday. Wind gusts should begin to decrease across the area by late Saturday evening. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 50 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 48 69 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 48 70 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 50 72 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 50 70 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 48 69 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 47 70 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. LA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026. AR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ074-075. && $$ 15/CR  392 FXUS64 KLCH 161721 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag for central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas is in effect 11 AM today to 1 AM Sat. Fire danger statement for the rest of the region. - Fire weather watch 9 AM to 9 PM Saturday for the entire CWA. - High winds Friday and Saturday will result in Wind Advisories as well as hazardous sea conditions. Gale conditions expected from this evening through Saturday afternoon. - Much colder and drier airmass will move in starting today. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s the rest of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Looking at RAP 500 mb analysis and satellite imagery, it's no secret where the cold front is: Stretching from southwest to northeast from Austin, TX to Memphis, TN. Winds ahead of the main frontal boundary are beginning to turn northerly. This influence is nearing the Northwest LA line and will soon spread low magnitude north winds into our northwest zones. This will start shaping up around sunrise. By mid-morning we should all feel a slight north breeze. The primary boundary then sweeps through swiftly, arriving to the Lakes Region early morning and sweeping offshore by noon. The initial wind gusts associated with its passage will abate slightly before the faucet cranks wide open and winds increase markedly this afternoon. Unlike some frontal passages where we see a brief period of strong north winds, these winds are set to increase and stick around through much of the weekend! All thanks to enhancement between the departing upper trof and attendant postfrontal high. Areas from coastal Texas across to coastal Louisiana and northeast into cenLA will see the longest duration of the highest speeds and thus are included in a wind advisory from 1 PM today through Saturday around noon. Winds 20 to 25 with gusts to 35 MPH can be expected. Winds will start slacking off Saturday afternoon as the upper high moves into the east central US, shutting off the northwest flow. With northerly winds come much cooler conditions! Highs today will be reflected by your location relative to the front. Interior Texas will only warm into the 70s when the cooler air arrives, whereas cenLA and southward should warm into the 80s before it cools off. Saturday, temps will struggle to hit the lower 70s. And with breezy conditions it'll feel cooler out. As for lows, mid 50s Saturday morning and upper 40s Sunday. How's that for a taste of fall! These windy and dry conditions are also conducive for rapidly growing wildfires. Be it a flicked cigarette butt or wind-induced powerline spark, small flames could become an uncontrollable problem SWIFTLY under these conditions. Whether you are under a burn ban or not, DO NOT BURN. Look to your local officials for best burn ban information and if you see a fire/smoke, say something! Take care out there and enjoy this cool off! 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cold front continues to sweep across southwest Louisiana early this afternoon. The front has passed BPT, AEX, and LCH and will be crossing LFT around 18Z and ARA around 19Z. In the wake of this front, north winds will become gusty at 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt. MVFR ceilings are expected for all terminals along and for a few hours after frontal passage. Current expectation is that these clouds should clear from northwest to southeast by 23Z-00Z, but this timing is low confidence. Gusty north winds continue through the night and into Saturday morning. 64/Silas && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Onshore winds will persist through the pre-dawn hours. Winds will start turning offshore after sunrise in response to a nearing strong cold front set to move into coastal waters this afternoon. Winds will rapidly increase resulting in rapid onset hazardous sea conditions. Small Craft advisory is in effect this morning until 7 PM when it transitions to a Gale Warning for sustained winds 25 to 35 knots, gusts to 40 knots and 7 to 11 foot seas. This hazardous period will continue until midday saturday when winds begin to relax. Winds will diminish slowly Saturday evening but waves will remain very elevated into Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Winds will begin turning north ahead of the approaching cold front in the coming predawn hours. Much stronger north winds will then spread southeast through the morning, reaching the coastline by roughly 10 AM and the Lower Atchafalaya by noon. Winds will then increase in the afternoon and will remain strong overnight into Saturday morning. Much cooler conditions will arrive today with dry air and lower RH lagging behind. Areas within the red flag warning today will see RH minimums 30 to 35 percent overlapping with north winds 10 to 20 MPH and gusts to 30 MPH. There is a fire weather watch area wide Saturday to account for RH minimums 25 to 30 percent combining with north-northeast winds 10 to 20 and gusts to 30 MPH. Winds will begin to diminish Saturday afternoon. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>030. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>033- 044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ029-032-033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-259-260. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ515-516-615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ430-432-435- 436. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-452- 455-470-472-475. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11 AVIATION...64  252 FXUS64 KMRX 161719 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 119 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 118 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Rain chances return this afternoon into tonight, especially in northern areas, as a front arrives from the west. - Much cooler conditions are expected this weekend with the first frost of the season likely for the Plateau, southwest Virginia, and the Tennessee/North Carolina mountains Sunday morning. A warming trend will follow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The ridge and high pressure over the Southeast break down as a deep trough moves into the Midwest and then into the Ohio Valley by afternoon. The surface low will move through the Great Lakes and into New England bringing a cold front through the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. Winds will be gusty this afternoon and evening with gusts up to 30 mph possible at times. The best chance for showers will be Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee and along the East Tennessee mountains and foothills this afternoon through tonight. Elsewhere, showers, if any, will be isolated. Thunder chances will be low with low instability expected. A changeover to light snow in the late night/early morning hours will be possible on the highest mountain peaks with little to no accumulation expected. This weekend will be dry and much cooler with highs in the 50s and lower 60s Saturday. Saturday will be breezy as well with gusts up to 25 mph likely at times. Only slightly warmer on Sunday with highs in the mid 60s. Temperatures will be cold enough for frost on Saturday and Sunday nights mainly in Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee and the higher elevations. Early and mid next week will be dry with highs warming into the 70s by Tuesday as ridging and high pressure dominate the Southeast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Front bringing showers and lower ceilings will impact the airports this evening. High confidence that showers will be in the area, but low confidence on coverage and intensity of showers. Winds will remain gusty overnight behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 62 43 66 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 59 40 66 / 40 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 48 58 40 65 / 30 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 55 34 64 / 70 10 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...99  320 FXUS64 KSJT 161739 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1239 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 1 PM Friday for gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. - Much cooler temperatures expected Friday into the weekend. Some low-lying areas may have morning lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. - A brief frost is possible across low lying areas of West Central Texas Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Rainfall rates have gradually decreased across West Central Texas, with most of the moderate rain decreasing to just at this point. Models show this trend should continue through the early morning hours, likely lingering across the southern counties past sunrise before completely ending by mid to late morning. Flash Flood Watch runs through 12Z and should be able to end it early as the rain continues to wane and the threat ends. Strong surface pressure gradient will continue through the day today and wind gusting over 40 mph remain possible. Boosted wind speeds in the forecast slightly, and will let the Wind Advisory already in effect continue. Much cooler today behind the cold front. Some of the models hold temperatures in the mid/upper 50s so not going to argue with the model blends showing highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the area, depending on how long the cloud cover ends up lingering across the area. Wind speeds should decrease after sunset, but may not completely drop off. This will allow readings to drop overnight, even though Sunday morning will likely be the better radiational cooling night. Wet soils may have an effect as well. Still, the coolest readings since the middle of April are possible Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 After a chilly start to the morning on Saturday, temperatures will slowly warm into the low to mid 60s by afternoon. These highs are 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal normals. Good radiational cooling conditions are forecast Sunday morning, as winds become light and variable and skies remain clear. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s across most of the area. Low-lying areas and river valleys may drop into the mid 30s. A light frost is possible across the area, especially across low-lying areas where the coldest temperatures are forecast. Another cool day is forecast on Sunday with highs in 60s to near 70. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s. A steady warm up is then forecast through next week. Highs on Monday will be back into the 70s, with highs on Tuesday approaching 80. Upper level ridging then develops across the area for the second half of the work week, resulting in highs well into the 80s. Dry conditions are forecast to continue through much of the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours. Gusty north winds will persist this afternoon with gusts 30 to 35 knots. Expect winds to gradually diminish this evening, with light north winds overnight into Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 41 60 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 39 60 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 41 61 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 42 61 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 41 59 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 41 59 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 41 59 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble- Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher- Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...24  500 FXUS64 KSJT 161742 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Wind Advisory is in effect through 7 PM this evening for gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. - Much cooler temperatures expected through this weekend, with some low-lying areas potentially falling into the low 30s early Saturday and Sunday morning. - A brief frost is possible across low lying areas of West Central Texas Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gusty northerly winds left in the wake of yesterday's cold front will linger through early this evening before gradually diminishing overnight tonight into Saturday. A Wind Advisory remains in place through 7PM tonight for northerly winds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph. Cold overnight low temperatures will also linger through the weekend, with lows each morning dipping into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Saturday and Sunday. Models continue to keep afternoon highs tomorrow in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Unfortunately, this airmass behind the front is much drier than previous days, so there is little to no chance for precipitation in the forecast through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 After a chilly start to the weekend, below normal and cooler temperatures this weekend will begin to gradually trend warmer and closer to seasonal normals by mid next week. Winds are expected to become light and variable with skies remain clear Saturday night into Sunday morning, providing a good setup for radiational cooling. This would cause overnight lows to fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s across most of the area. Low-lying areas and river valleys may drop into the mid 30s, which could bring the potential for a light frost being experience across these areas that see the coldest temperatures. A steady warm up will continue into the end of next week as upper-level ridging redevelops across the areas mid to late next week. High temperatures are expected to gradually rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s by mid week, and into the 80s by next Friday. Dry conditions are forecast to continue through much of the work week next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours. Gusty north winds will persist this afternoon with gusts 30 to 35 knots. Expect winds to gradually diminish this evening, with light north winds overnight into Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 41 60 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 39 60 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 41 61 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 42 61 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 41 59 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 41 59 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 41 59 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble- Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher- Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...24  496 FXUS64 KTSA 161724 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Gusty north winds continue Friday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the higher terrain areas of NW AR and far SE OK. - Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast across far SE OK this afternoon due to the combination of low humidity, gusty winds and lack of rainfall in this area. - Temperatures drop enough both Friday and Saturday nights to support frost development across portions of NE OK and NW AR. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Breezy and much cooler conditions are ongoing in the wake of last night/s cold frontal passage. A few northerly wind gusts around 40 mph have been observed late this morning in far southeast Oklahoma, with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range across much of the rest of eastern Oklahoma. The very dry low levels will combine with the strong and gusty winds to lead to elevated fire weather concerns in far southeast Oklahoma where very little, if any, rainfall occurred in the last few days. A Fire Danger Statement was issued by an earlier shift through early evening and remains valid. Gust magnitude remains expected to decrease, albeit slowly, through the afternoon and the existing Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire on time at 1 pm. Wraparound cloudiness is increasing late this morning, particularly in areas north of I-40, as the main upper level trough swings through the region. This cloudiness should stick around through the afternoon and possibly into part of the evening and overnight in parts of northwest Arkansas. The main issue tonight is the potential for areas of frost, especially in locations north and west of I-44 in northeast Oklahoma. Wind speeds drop substantially overnight with the approach of surface high pressure, allowing temperatures to drop into the mid 30s. Highest confidence in frost development is in parts of Osage, Pawnee and Washington counties, and a Frost Advisory will be issued for these areas for Saturday morning. Potential for more patchy frost will extend farther east along the Kansas border, but confidence is not high enough in the areal extent to issue an advisory that far east. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A low impact forecast will exist for much of the extended forecast. Saturday is shaping up to be absolutely fantastic for those who favor light winds, seasonably cool temperatures, low humidity and plenty of sun. Despite continued low afternoon humidities, the lighter winds will lead to improved fire weather conditions for southeast Oklahoma, and an additional Fire Danger Statement appears unnecessary. Additional frost development should occur Saturday night into Sunday morning across northern parts of the forecast area, with overnight lows being close to those expected tonight. Another Frost Advisory may be warranted. Southerly winds make a return to the area on Sunday, which will lead to warmer afternoon temperatures. Upper level ridging builds into the Central United States by early next week and persists through much of the upcoming week. This will keep warmer temperatures across the region, with near to above normal highs returning as early as Monday and certainly by Tuesday. The next chance of rain looks to accompany another strong storm system that makes its way eastward toward the area late in the week and into the next weekend. Low rain chances will return ahead of this feature possibly as early as Thursday-Friday, but with a trend toward a more delayed arrival, more likely over the next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026VFR cloud deck across northern TAF sites will gradually erode in Oklahoma this afternoon with VFR broken clouds forecast to remain across northwest AR terminals through 10Z. Gusty north winds in the 20-30kt range will continue through sunset before weakening to at or below 10kt overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 39 60 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 44 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 42 64 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 35 60 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 37 64 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 41 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 40 63 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 38 60 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 F10 40 61 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 44 67 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ049-053-376. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ055-059-154- 254-354. AR...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ011-119-120. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...24  726 FXUS65 KVEF 161728 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1028 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty north to northeast winds this morning will diminish through the afternoon. * Precipitation chances return to the region early to middle of next week, with significant uncertainty in forecast and impact details. && .DISCUSSION...Through the Middle of Next Week. Through the overnight, gusty northeast winds were reports across portions of the area at times. The strongest winds were in the terrain with gusts over 40 MPH reported as higher elevations intercepted a 50KT+ 850-700mb jet. This lower level jet associated with a low pressure system sitting over southern California will remain draped over southern portions of the region through rest of tonight before slowly shifting south and weakening this morning. While gusts are fairly isolated at the moment, expecting a quick uptick in the valleys early this morning as better mixing occurs with sunrise as well as an area of better vorticity advection on the backside of the low. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 10AM this morning which looks good as additional minor wind impacts are possible with the uptick in winds after sunrise. Winds will diminish this afternoon as the low shifts south and weakens. Widespread gusts 20-30 MPH are expected this afternoon, then gusts under 20 MPH are expected through at least Monday. After a brief warm up to near normal today, temperatures drop a few degrees back to slightly below normal levels for the weekend. Continuing to watch the potential for weather impacts around midweek as a deep West Coast trough impacts the region. Strong forcing will be associated with this deepening low, which some models have closing off as it moves into central or southern California. This forcing will interact with an uptick in moisture that advects into the region from distant Tropical Storm Simon ahead of the trough. Cluster analysis shows significant variation in how quickly the trough moves into the region as well as how deep it will be once it does so. In addition, models continue to advertise differing solutions on how an IVT plume sets up somewhere over southern Nevada or western Arizona. All that to say- there is significant uncertainty in the forecast details and potential impacts the middle of next week. It's fair to say precipitation is expected at some point after Monday, with snow possible above 8000-9000ft, but rain impacts will not be as significant as what just occurred with the remnants of Hurricane Rachel. There also should be an increase in winds ahead of the trough, likely Tuesday, which could result in wind impacts. Low confidence though in exact timing of rain, where the highest impacts will occur, and how much snow to expect in the higher elevations.With the incoming system and the potential for rain, temperatures will cool and remain below normal early next week when the system moves inland. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package... Northeast winds will continue through the afternoon, with occasional gusts of 25 to 30 knots persisting through sunset. Winds will fall below 12 knots overnight, with directions becoming more variable but still maintaining a northerly component. Northeast breezes return Saturday, although speeds will be lighter than today and are expected to remain below 10 knots. VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday, with mainly clear skies through tonight, followed by increasing mid- and high-level clouds tomorrow morning. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty winds will continue through the afternoon, with gusts generally 15 to 30 knots across much of theregion. Across the southern Great Basin and western Mojave Desert, wind directions will favor northeast to east directions, while northerly winds are expected in the Colorado River Valley and northern Owens Valley. Winds will diminish overnight, with most areas seeing speeds fall below 10 knots. VFR conditions will prevail, with FEW to SCT high clouds spreading from south to north overnight and Saturday morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nickerson AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  494 FXUS66 KMTR 161724 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1024 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into Saturday before cooler, below normal weather returns Sunday into next week - Critical to near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast due to very dry conditions and offshore flow through Saturday - Pattern change expected early to mid next week with periods of breezy onshore winds and light, accumulating rain && .UPDATE... Issued at 757 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The Red Flag Warning continues through 11 AM for the North Bay Interior Mountains due to moderate offshore winds and critically dry conditions. Winds ease across the higher elevations by this afternoon, yet conditions will remain critical to near critical through Saturday due to low relative humidity. The forecast remains on track for today to be the warmest day of the week as high pressure dominates the weather pattern with areas of Moderate HeatRisk, especially near the coast. Interior areas and places in and around the Santa Cruz region will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s. As mentioned earlier, portions of the Santa Cruz Mountains and souther Santa Clara Valley (such as Morgan Hill and Gilroy) have the potential to reach the upper 90s. Coastal areas will remain mild to very warm in the 70s to mid 80s. No updates currently planed for the ongoing forecast. RGass && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (Today and tonight) A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 11 AM Friday for the North Bay Interior Mountains due to moderate offshore winds and critically dry conditions overnight. Minimal to no overnight humidity recovery is expected with humidity values between 15 to 25% expected. Winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains have picked up across the highest peaks and will spread into the remainder of the NB Interior Mountains tonight. Offshore gusts are expected to peak between 20 to 30 mph with stronger gusts possible across the highest ridgelines. Gusts between 40 to 60 mph have been observed across the highest peaks (3500+ ft) in northern Sonoma and Napa counties. As offshore winds pick up across the rest of the NB Interior Mountains, humidity values will drop with rapid fire spread possible should a fire start. Winds are expected to decrease by late morning with the Red Flag Warning set to expire at 11 AM. Although the winds will have decreased, very dry conditions (RH 10-20%) will persist through the rest of the day with poor overnight recoveries expected Friday into Saturday. As such, near critical fire weather conditions will continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday. If you are participating in any activity involving flames outdoors, be very careful and do not allow sparks/embers to escape. Listen to all guidance from local officials. Upper level ridging continues with widespread above normal temperatures and Moderate HeatRisk peaking today. Minimal relief is expected along the coast due to upper level ridging mixing out the marine layer. Interior highs peak in the upper 80s to low 90s with coastal highs in the 70s to low 80s. Portions of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the southern Santa Clara Valley may reach the upper 90s. Expect hot conditions and patchy Moderate HeatRisk to continue into Saturday although a few degrees cooler than on Friday. If you're not a fan of hot weather, you're in luck as a pattern change is expected Sunday into next week (see Long Term discussion). && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 162026 (Saturday through Thursday) Temperatures return to more seasonal temperatures by Sunday as upper level ridging is replaced by broad troughing. High temperatures cool into the 70s to low 80s across the interior while the coast drops back into the 50s to 60s thanks to the return of the marine layer. Upper level troughing impacts become more pronounced over the course of the next week as a deep upper level low becomes cut-off from the jet stream and lingers along the Central/Southern California coastline through late next week. At the same time, a surface low pressure system originating from the Gulf of Alaska will move southwards along the California coast next week. This system will bring a much cooler airmass into the region and see a return of fall temperatures in the 60s to 70s and morning lows in the 40s to low 50s. Recent guidance has trended towards the low staying offshore rather than moving onshore next week. The current forecast shows the highest rain totals along the Santa Lucia Range and Santa Cruz Mountains where totals are between a quarter to half an inch. For the lower elevations expect up to a tenth of an inch across the Bay Area and up to a quarter of an inch across the Central Coast. Periods of gusty onshore winds are likely along the coast, the higher elevations, and across mountain gaps/passes next week. Winds don't look to be widespread enough to necessitate a Wind Advisory but favored windy locations (Altamont Pass) will definitely be gusty. Another item to watch is the potential for thunderstorms with this system. NBM guidance has consistently maintained a low chance (<15%) of thunderstorms across the region. In favor of thunderstorms is the fact that this is a cold core low which is bringing in cooler air and may be more favorable for ice crystal development/eventual lightning development. Anti-thunderstorm development is the new more offshore track of the low which keeps the best MUCAPE and CAPE values offshore. This may be a setup where we see some sort of convective activity over the marine environment but it doesn't make it onto land (if the current track holds). Bottom line: expect a pattern change to occur next week with below normal temperatures, potential for light rain, breezy to gusty onshore winds, and a low potential for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Currently VFR. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period due to overnight/morning offshore flow. Onshore flow will return with the afternoon sea breeze. Haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southeasterly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Light easterly flow will prevail during the overnight and morning hours with onshore flow returning with the afternoon sea breeze. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and VFR with gusty drainage flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period. SNS will be slower to return to onshore flow, but it is expected by this afternoon with the return of the sea breeze. Drainage flow will return tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1021 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail Friday, increasing to become strong across the northern outer waters Saturday and Sunday. Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes Monday will diminish and back to become westerly Tuesday. Moderate seas will prevail through Saturday, building to become rough across the outer waters Saturday through Tuesday. Light rain is expected Monday into Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 451 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The Red Flag Warning for the North Bay Interior Mountains remains ineffect this morning due to moderate offshore winds and very dry conditions. This included the very poor overnight humidity recovery between 13 and 23 percent. The Red Flag Warning is set to expire at 11AM, as winds decrease. Conditions will remain very dry, with RH values around 10-20% forecast for the rest of the day and poor overnight recoveries tonight into Saturday. These conditions, combined with warmer weather, will lead to near critical weather conditions for the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday. We will begin to see a reprieve in conditions Saturday into Sunday, as the upper level pattern shifts to broad troughing. Temperatures become more seasonal and we should start to winds become onshore, improving RH conditions as well. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1021 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches this weekend and likely into next week. Long period (17 seconds) southerly/southwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 7 to 12 feet. Remain off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf with strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean! Sarment && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ504. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  519 FXUS62 KCAE 161743 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 143 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued from early Saturday morning through Sunday evening. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. Breezy to gusty winds are expected Saturday and Sunday with a Lake Wind Advisory being hoisted. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. Breezy to gusty winds are expected Saturday and Sunday with a Lake Wind Advisory being hoisted. A strong cold front is approaching the area from the west currently. It is pushing eastward across the Appalachians currently, with strong, southwesterly winds present ahead of it. Temps are (again) in the upper 80s this afternoon, poised to make another run at 90F this afternoon given the strong warm advection and compressional heating ahead of the front. As we get into the forecast period tonight, the front is forecast to race across the area between 10p and 3a. A strong, robust wind shift is expected to accompany this with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph expected. Additionally, the front is taking on a bit of an anafront structure by this point as strong synoptic forcing overspreads the area behind the front. As such, precipitation is forecast to develop relatively quickly across the area. A quick burst of rain is expected between 06z and 15z across the area, with this moving eastward as synoptic forcing shifts eastward. A strong pressure gradient will setup across the area thereafter, yielding strong northeasterly winds for most of Saturday and Sunday. Strong cold advection will result in temperatures in the mid to upper 60s Saturday (at best) and only the low 60s on Sunday. Both EFI for temps has trended towards a cool signal this weekend and early next week, adding confidence to well below normal highs and lows settling over the area. Also, because of the frequent wind gusts of 25-35 mph expected both days, a longer duration Lake Wind Advisory has been issued through Sunday evening. Boaters on area lakes should be cautious, especially in the evening and overnight as warm lake waters will allow stronger wind gusts to persist over the lakes at night. Next week looks beautiful with large daily diurnal spreads owing to a very dry airmass in place. Highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 40s are likely throughout much of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Generally VFR conditions expected through 06z then some cold advection stratus expected Saturday morning. Satellite imagery showing some cumulus development across the region and deep mixing has resulted in gusty southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds should diminish a bit and lose the gusts with sunset through the evening hours until a strong cold front moves through the region later tonight. Winds will pick up and become gusty from the northwest behind the front during the 07-10z time frame with gusts pushing above 20 knots. Some light rain is possible with the frontal passage but not confident in vsby restrictions. Guidance is trending to a period of MVFR cigs behind the front with strong cold advection. MVFR cigs may linger through late morning hours but should improve back to VFR near the end of the forecast period for all terminals except maybe OGB. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Gusty winds expected to continue through the weekend due to an increased pressure gradient with a developing coastal low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday forSCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116- 135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ040-063>065-077. && $$ DISCUSSION...PL AVIATION...23  043 FXUS63 KDMX 161733 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty north/northwest winds this morning topping 40 mph at times - Rain showers expected north and east this morning. - Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Short wave trough is passing through Iowa currently with a cold front approaching the state as well over Minnesota and South Dakota. Surface low pressure is over Michigan with a broad area of stratus and some showers extending west and just behind the upper level trough passage. The main forecast challenge this morning will be the wind gusts and if they reach advisory criteria. The pressure gradient will continue to increase this morning and maximize this morning over north central Iowa around 35 ubars/km. The primary pressure height rises will be to the north of the state but will also clip across northern Iowa. The mixed layer depth this morning while the max 925-850 mb winds are passing by though is less certain. Model Sounding profiles remain mostly saturated through this layer with cloud bases around 1500 ft and this is aligning well with the bases currently over southern Minnesota. Some cold advection will be occurring but that will be limited by the moist profiles during this period. The another source of subsidence is the mid-level descent behind the upper level energy, which is further back upstream and will arrive as the mixed layer winds are diminishing. The current wind gusts upstream are mostly below 35 kts. A few higher gusts have been associated with area with rain showers. Those showers will move across the north and east this morning so will continue to monitor and at this time, will hold off on wind headlines. May need a Special Weather Statement if the higher gusts continue with any rain showers and will reconsider an advisory if it becomes more widespread. The wind will begin to diminish this afternoon and should get some breaks in the stratus over northern Iowa by mid to late afternoon as high pressure ridging approaches from the west. Profiles should quickly decouple around sunset leading to the wind further diminishing. Overnight low temperatures are the challenge for the overnight. A big factor in the challenge for temperatures overnight is the shallow cold layer near the surface with a relatively steep inversion just 500-700 ft off the surface. This type of a steep and low inversion can prove difficult for surface temperatures to fall off too much. Factoring in the new wet ground and also still warmer, and the ground itself won't cool quickly. The wind also may not completely go calm with the high center off to the southwest so some uncertainly on the level of radiational cooling that can be achieved. Despite the uncertainty, big picture for Iowa, still expect several areas to reach freezing or below, especially north and west and widespread frost for most areas. Coldest temperatures will be rural with warmer areas in the larger metros including Des Moines where frost is expected even if freezing temperatures are not achieved. Coordinated a transition from the Freeze Watch to a Warning and as noted above, some areas may not reach freezing but this will be the first cold impacts of this Fall season. Saturday will be mostly sunny and will become breezy from the south as return flow arrives. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure gradually moves into the region Friday night into Saturday morning allowing winds to drop off, skies to clear, and good radiational cooling. Temperatures by Saturday morning fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday morning to account for these low temperatures so make plans now to protect any sensitive vegetation! The pressure gradient tightens again Saturday behind the departing high pressure leading to breezy winds, especially north, Saturday into Sunday. Conditions otherwise remain dry with the surface high and an upper ridge in place. Temperatures begin to rebound later Saturday into Sunday as southwest flow returns translating to gradually increasing highs this weekend into early next week. Highs in the 50s Saturday become 60s Sunday-Monday and 70s again by Tuesday. There are a few hints of a small system near the region around Monday night but our forecast remains dry until mid to later next week when there is a bit more consensus for returning precipitation chances though details will continue to be refined in the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Widespread scattered to broken MVFR ceilings remain across the area early this afternoon and will gradually trend towards low VFR through the rest of the afternoon. Skies will then gradually clear from late afternoon into the evening with VFR conditions then expected through the rest of the TAF period. Any lingering light rain/sprinkles remain in portions of east to southeast Iowa but are not bringing much in the way of impacts. Gusty winds out of the northwest this afternoon will also gradually decrease with gusts of 25-35 knots initially becoming less than 20 knots by late afternoon. Winds then become light and variable later this evening into the overnight before increasing again slightly and turning out of the southwest on Saturday morning. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ004>007- 015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086- 092>096. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ097. && $$ SHORT TERM...Donavon LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...05  342 FXUS63 KGRR 161739 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 139 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wet, windy, and colder today; Frost tonight - Tranquil weather for Sat and beyond with moderating temperatures && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Wet, windy, and colder today; Frost tonight No surprises thus far with the ongoing system over the area this morning. The main batch of rain showers came through earlier with the nose of the strong low level jet passing through. This has exited east, and the initial cold front has just about cleared the area to the east as of 230 am. Plenty of forcing remains and continues to bring showers to the area as the large northern stream trough is now approaching with large scale upper divergence ahead of it moving over the area. In addition, the RRQ of a 140 knot upper jet will aid in the rain development this morning. We continue to watch the secondary front/cold conveyor belt that is expected to drop through from mid morning into the early afternoon hours. This will bring more showers to the area, highly concentrated near the lakeshore where cold enough low level air and cyclonic flow/cold air aloft moves in. We continue to see good signs that a few storms will be possible close to the lakeshore with this feature due to the strong instability over the lake feeding this. The flow will quickly shift to become more from the NNE behind this front. We will see the gusty winds behind this, which look to peak around 40 mph for a brief time. No wind advisory looks to be needed at this time. Even along the lakeshore where it will be slightly offshore. We will see a few pop up rain showers continue to be possible inland, but nothing looks to be organized. Once we lose the diurnal boost of the instability, the threat for showers will drop significantly or end. The upper cyclonic flow will exit the area after 00z, allowing ridging to build in through the night. Winds will be up in the evening, but will settle down quite a bit overnight. We could decouple well at that time, and see a fair amount of frost for much of the interior. A frost advisory may be needed, and can be issued by the day shift. - Tranquil weather for Sat and beyond with moderating temperatures Confidence continues to increase that we will see an extended period of tranquil weather from Saturday through the upcoming week, and likely beyond. The increased confidence comes as we see the pattern expected to be even more amplified than previously thought, and the favorable weather under the upper ridge expected to be over our region. The upper trough/low to our west is expected to close off now and slow up in trying to move east. This is likely at least partially due to the closed low off of the east coast and upper ridge slowing down the progression of the upper air flow over the CONUS. The majority of the time, pops will be near zero with strong subsidence overhead. There is a period on Thursday and Friday where the ridge is temporarily flattened by energy over Canada. These short waves will have no decent moisture to advect in, and little to no moisture to start with. Temperatures will start out cool on Saturday in the 50s with the cool flow from Canada remaining in place immediately behind the Friday system. We will see heights build, and a return flow advect warmer air gradually over the area. We are likely to see temperatures approach 70 by mid week, and stay mild through the end of the week, with just a slight cool down with the ridge flattened briefly. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Northwest winds pick up this afternoon with gusts around 25 to 30 knots. Showers continue beforetapering off around 21Z to 00Z this evening. Some brief reductions to MVFR visibltiites are possible with heavier showers. Ceilings will bounce between MVFR and VFR until 00Z. MVFR ceilings will range around 1500 to 2500 feet. After 00Z we'll see clearing overnight into Saturday with winds becoming lighter from 03Z to 09Z Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Everything looks to be on track with regards to headlines this morning, so no changes are necessary at this time. We have solid Small Craft Advisory conditions ongoing behind the initial front that passed through around midnight. The Gales are expected to arrive by noon with a secondary front dropping through that will bring a nice cold surge with it. Solid Gales remain expected, with a small chance of a brief Storm Force wind gust. Not enough to need a Storm Warning. Winds will steadily diminish then this evening as we see a sfc ridge axis pass through. This will be short lived as another strong area of gradient winds drops down over the area late Saturday through most of Sunday. Those winds and waves will require another Small Craft Advisory to be issued. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...RAH MARINE...NJJ  082 FXUS63 KLOT 161734 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1234 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy and seasonably chilly conditions expected today with some scattered showers, wind gusts over 30 mph are expected this afternoon. - East of Gary, lake enhanced showers this afternoon will transition to lake effect showers tonight with a slight chance of a thunderstorm near the shore late this afternoon/early this evening. Wind gusts to 45 mph possible near the northwest Indiana lakefront this afternoon/early evening. - Coldest night of the season expected tonight with lows near/just below freezing across interior portions of northern IL. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Vigorous upper trough evident on water vapor imagery early this morning moving into the upper Mississippi Valley. The associated surface cold front has now pushed east of the CWA with gusty northwesterly winds ushering in a colder and less humid air mass. Showers associated with the cold front will move east of our CWA well before sunrise, however additional scattered showers are expected this afternoon in association with the mid-upper level trough moving across the area. Despite the drier low level air mass advecting in, a pocket of very cold air aloft associated with the trough (-27C at 500mb on 00z Bismark sounding) will aid in destabilization and support scattered showers this afternoon. While scattered showers are expected area wide late this morning into this afternoon, the arrival of the cold air aloft should result in a significant increase in lake induced instability resulting in more widespread and robust showers over Lake Michigan spreading into northwest Indiana (mainly east of Gary). Forecast soundings depict the top of the moist convective layer reaching above the -20C level this afternoon over southern Lake Michigan, which could even allow an isolated thunderstorm or two. The cloud cover, scattered showers, and strong cold air advection should result in very little diurnal recovery in temperatures with temperatures holding nearly steady in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Strong and gusty northwest winds will only add to the chill with gusts over 30 mph likely today. Lake induced instability and less friction will result in even stronger winds over Lake Michigan bleeding onto the northwest Indiana shore this afternoon into early this evening when a few gusts to around 45 mph are expected. Skies clear out early this evening and winds will gradually subside tonight, the exception being into northwest Indiana where lake effect showers will likely continue. The lake cloudiness and showers will keep temps relatively milder over northwest Indiana, but else look for the coldest night thus far this autumn. Have upgraded the freeze watch to a freeze warning and expanded it a bit farther south and east. Have buffered the freeze warning with a frost advisory for a couple of counties, though admittedly, tonight doesn't look particularly favorable for frost. Winds will be slow to subside, though over our western CWA very late tonight we could see winds get close to decoupling. The winds should prevent strong radiational cooling and with T/Td spreads expected to remain at or above 5F, frost potential is pretty iffy tonight. Nonetheless, with temps progged to get close to freezing and winds subsiding toward sunrise, felt it was prudent to hoist a frost advisory out of an abundance of caution and as a hedge in case temps were to get colder and dip to or just below freezing. As the sharp upper trough shifts east of the region later tonight, inversion heights will come crashing down and should shut down the lake effect showers by or just shortly after sunrise Saturday.Outside of the decreasing lake effect cloudiness downwind of the lake Sat AM, look for sunny skies this weekend. Light winds with the still chilly air mass in place should result in below average temps in the 50s for highs Saturday. Saturday night the frost/freeze potential looks greatest away from the immediate lakeshore in northwest Indiana where strong radiational cooling is expected. Frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed Saturday night for at least portions of northwest Indiana and perhaps west into portions of northern IL as well. Our impending cold snap looks to be short lived with warm air advection ramping up Sunday and highs rebounding back into the 60s. Unseasonably mild weather is expected next week with highs approaching 70 Monday and likely in the 70s the rest of the week. Average highs next week drop into the upper 50s, so we'll be looking at high temps 10 to nearly 20F above average by the middle and end of next week. After the shower threat ends over most of the area late this afternoon and downwind of the lake by early Saturday, no precipitation is expected through the rest of the weekend and next week looks dry as well. - Izzi && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Key concerns for the 18Z TAF period: * Scattered light showers this afternoon * MVFR cigs over Chicagoland returning to VFR this afternoon * At GYY, periods of lake-effect rain expected late this afternoon and again late tonight into early Saturday Scattered coverage of light rain is dropping into northern IL from the north early this afternoon. Periods of light rain will be possible through the rest of the afternoon. MVFR cigs over the region have recently scattered out over RFD with more VFR found upstream. Chicagoland sites are expected to return to VFR by mid- afternoon. At GYY, a band of lake-effect rain showers will target far northwest IN late this afternoon into early evening. Periods of light to moderate rain with MVFR vsby reductions are anticipated. A second push is expected after midnight and may last into early Saturday. Meanwhile, NW winds will trend toward NNW through the afternoon while regular gusts are expected to get up to near 30 kt for the middle and late afternoon. NNW winds will remain gusty through much of the night before easing for Saturday. Doom && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 West to northwest winds to 30kt this morning will veer more northerly and increase to gales to 40kt this afternoon. Northerly gales will continue this evening, with strongest gusts to 40kt+ likely within the lake enhanced convergence band and with more robust lake effect showers over the Indiana waters east of Gary. In addition to an isolated thunderstorm or two late this afternoon, conditions are expected to become favorable for waterspouts late this afternoon into this evening. Waterspout risk is expected to diminish late this evening as inversion heights lower. Lake effect shower intensity and coverage will decrease overnight also in response to the decreasing inversion heights. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ003- ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012. Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ006- ILZ019-ILZ020. IN...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the IL and IN nearshore waters. Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  349 FXUS63 KMQT 161739 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 139 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and windy conditions this weekend may create elevated fire weather conditions, but there is uncertainty in the moisture (both in the air and in the fuels). - Gales are possible over western Lake Superior on Saturday and again on Sunday. - Expect dry weather this weekend through at least the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Midnight KMQT radar shows widespread rainfall but with more striation patterns occurring with time to indicated mesoscale bands forming. These bands will lead to some spatial variation in the rainfall totals by the time synoptic rainfall ends this morning and we transition to a lake effect rainfall pattern. At the surface, a 1005mb low is traversing the Lower Peninsula with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Dakotas as 1040mb high pressure moves over the MT/WY/SD tripoint. Aloft, the low is supported by a positively tilted 500mb trough centered over Minnesota and the high is supported by a ridge axis most prominent over the Canadian and northern US Rockies (which sits atop a monsoon trough over San Diego). With the positive tilt of the trough and the trough itself being tilted with respect to height above the surface low, the low will deepen as it moves east into this weekend, and despite the high weakening slightly with time, the strengthening low will keep the post-low pressure gradient strong. This will drive gusty winds, in conjunction with isallobaric winds (GFS shows up to 10mb/6hr rises today) and cold advection aloft will help mix down stronger winds aloft as well. Mean peak surface wind gusts in the HREF by noon today are 35-40 mph over land and 40-45 mph at and around Lake Superior as a result. On the precipitation side of things, the aforementioned cold advection will bring 850mb temperatures down to around -4 to -8 C over a Lake Superior that is around 10-12 C, inducing up to 200 J/kg of instability over eastern Lake Superior per the NAM. As ridging aloft spills into the Plains and high pressure advances towards the region, lake effect rain (and even a 10-20% chance of the first few snowflakes of the season, no accumulation forecast) will gradually decrease in coverage and intensity, ending altogether Saturday. By 06Z Saturday, mean HREF QPF is highest (0.75"+) along an arc from the US41/US141 split, up to the Mount Arvon/Eagle Mine vicinity, and down to Palmer, with the areas surrounding this arc seeing around a half inch on average and the rest of the UP still seeing a wetting rain (about 0.1"-0.33"), though perhaps not enough to bust the drought. Still, 2 of the 3 largest ongoing wildfires are within this arc, which the rain will help keep the fire behavior down, though it will also complicate access to the fire further (muddy roads, slick exposed rock, low ceilings for aviation support, etc). Despite rainfall ending Saturday, this weekend will still carry some weather impacts. Atop the advancing ridge will be a rapidly moving and compact trough passing through the northern portions of the Canadian Prairie provinces into Hudson Bay. While the trough and resulting surface low will be too far away to deliver further precipitation to the UP for the back end of this weekend, the low (around 986 mb over western Hudson Bay Sunday afternoon per the GFS) will squeeze the pressure gradient tighter against the high pressure, which the GFS resolves at 1035 mb over Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon. This results in Euro ensemble mean gusts over the UP of 25-35 mph out of the southwest both afternoons of Saturday and Sunday, paired with LREF chances of sub-30% RHs at up to 25%. This combination of dry andwindy weather could once again result in worsening wildfire weather conditions, though confidence on the RH forecast is low as well as low confidence in fuel moistures (the main question being "was wet weather this week enough to moisten the fuels in a meaningful way?"), so the forecast continues to bear monitoring through the weekend. More consistent ridging over central North America will bring quieter weather (continued lack of rainfall but this time with lighter winds) for the beginning of next week. Expect highs around the 60s (perhaps lower for the Keweenaw and Lake Superior shores) and lows around the freezing mark in the interior and 40s closer to the shores. The next batch of widespread rainfall appears to be with a trough that passes through the Canadian Prairie in the back half of the week, but differences in ensemble timing and intensity of the parent trough results in the peak in PoPs in the NBM being around 35% Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gusty northerly winds upwards of 25-35 kts and lake effect rain is present this afternoon as the UP is sandwiched between a deepening low to the east and incoming sc high pressure to the west. Rain showers are expected to linger at SAW through the evening before drier air working into the region tonight tapers off precipitation. MVFR cigs at all sites slowly climb to VFR tonight with diminishing lake effect clouds. Strong winds relax overnight as the pressure gradient slackens. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A deepening low pressure moving through the southern end of the Great Lakes Basin contrasting with high pressure to the west will drive wind gusts to 45 kt out of the northwest over Lake Superior and to 35-40 kt over northern Lake Michigan. This has resulted in Gale Warnings which continue this morning. Wave heights remain maximized over east-central Lake Superior this afternoon at 14-18 ft. Wind gusts briefly fall below 20 kt tonight, but increase out of the southwest again Saturday through Sunday. Chances of gales vary between model sources, but the Euro ensemble gives isolated pockets of 20-40% chances of gale force gusts over the west half of Lake Superior. With inconsistencies in space and between models, will elect to hold off on any watches for this weekend, and if they are needed, may need to be short-fused as more high-resolution guidance becomes available. Wave heights over the west half of Lake Superior build to 6-10 ft by Saturday afternoon and to 8-12 ft Sunday afternoon (locally higher immediately north of the Keweenaw Peninsula). As wind gusts fall below 20 kt for Sunday night, wave heights also gradually relax, falling below 4 ft for the US waters of Lake Superior early Monday morning while northern Lake Superior falls below 4 ft waves around noon Monday. Quiet marine conditions are then expected for the first half of next week, with the next disturbance arriving around Thursday, but differences in models in regards to timing and location of the next system vary significantly, so the confidence in the precise wind and wave forecast is low. Chances of gales in the back half of next week are 5-15%. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ243>247-264. Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ241-242-263. Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ248>250-265- 266. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ251-267. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...GS AVIATION...BW MARINE...GS  203 FXUS64 KBRO 161736 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong cold front will bring strong winds, cooler temperatures, and multiple weather hazards (marine, beach, fire, and wind) across Deep South Texas into the weekend. - Northerly winds of 15-30 mph are expected to gust as high as 45 mph today into Saturday. - Low to medium (20-40%) rain shower chances along the cold front, mainly across the Valley and along the coast. - Temperatures rebound next week with the potential for additional rain showers early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front moving through the region has prompted numerous weather hazards across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today into Sunday. These hazards include: a Red Flag Warning, Wind Advisories, Gale Warning, High Rip Current Risk, Coastal Flood Advisory, and a High Surf Advisory. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s in the Valley before the front pushes through later this afternoon. Isolated showers are possible with the frontal passage, mainly along the coast. In wake of the front, a strong high pressure system will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures. Winds could gust high as 45 mph this afternoon into tonight. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Brooks, Kenedy, Willacy, Cameron, and Hidalgo counties until 7 AM Saturday, and until 1 PM Saturday right along the coast. The drier air in wake of the front in combination with high winds has lead to a Red Flag Warning for all of Deep South Texas from 1 PM today until 7 AM Saturday. A Fire Danger Statement or another Red Flag Warning may be needed on Saturday as RH values drop even more on top of still breezy north winds. The high winds also will lead to hazardous beach conditions with a High Risk of rip currents, Coastal Food Advisory and a High Surf Advisory in in effect until Sunday morning. Cooler overnight temperatures are expected through Saturday night with lows in the 50s across much of the region. Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures will be well below normal levels with values in the low to mid 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to near 80F degrees on Sunday. Temperatures will be back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the the early to middle part of next week. Rain chances return midweek along the coast a trough develops offshore. Chances remain low (20-30%). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A cold front moving through Deep South Texas will led to very windy conditions this afternoon into Saturday. Northerly winds around 20kts are expected with gusts of 30-35 kts, possibly higher. As the front approaches could see some brief MVFR conditions as well as isolated showers. Confidence remains too low on any of these showers moving over the airports so left out of the TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front will bring strong winds and hazardous marine conditions into Sunday. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters until 1 PM Saturday. Expect seas of 11-16 ft and wind gusts to around 40kts. By Sunday winds and seas will become more favorable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 61 74 62 79 / 10 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 58 75 58 80 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 60 76 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 58 75 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 74 69 77 / 10 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 74 62 79 / 10 10 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ248>255-353. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ250-251-253>255-353. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ351-354-355-451-454- 455.t High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155- 170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...68-AM LONG TERM....68-AM AVIATION...68-AM  441 FXUS64 KEWX 161741 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1239 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong cold front moves through the area through daybreak. Rain chances diminish through the overnight hours and end this morning. - Wind Advisory for all of South Central Texas today with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts between 40-50 mph. - Cooler air ushers into the area and remains through the weekend, then a warming trend begins. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front is moving across the area with its impact first seen in the northwest portion of the forecast area and spreading south to southeast through daybreak. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms continue across the Edwards Plateau early this morning where some pockets of heavy rainfall have been observed. Drier and windy conditions behind the front will erode this activity through the morning. A Flood Watch remains in effect at the time of this AFD issuance but could be cancelled a few hours early. Post frontal conditions will be evident by a gusty north wind ushering in cooler air. Northerly wind from 20-30 mph with gusts to 40-50 mph are expected to continue into the early evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 7pm to account for these gusty winds. Cloudy morning skies begin to break up slightly in the afternoon with high temperatures today from the low 60s to low 70s. Windy conditions will make it feel even cooler. Wind eases in the west but remains gusty from the Hill Country eastward overnight through Saturday morning. During this time, forecast wind speeds will be more 15-25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph which coincides with the expiration of the Wind Advisory. Lows overnight cool into the low to mid 40s over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country into the mid 40s to low 50s elsewhere. Breezy wind eases through the day on Saturday. Less clouds are expected this day with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The coolest temperatures of the period are forecast Saturday night into Sunday morning lows from the low and mid 40s over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to the mid 40s to around 50 degrees elsewhere. Light wind and mild temperatures from the middle 60s to middle 70s are expected Sunday, then a warming trend returns for the week with daily highs and lows creeping back to above normal levels by Wednesday. Dry conditions continue with possibly some low rain chances returning at the very end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds of 20 to 28 knots with gusts as high as 43 knots are forecast for the local area terminals especially for the I-35 corridor through 00Z Saturday. For KDRT, a northerly breeze of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots are forecast for the rest of this afternoon. The wind relaxes a bit this evening into Saturday morning, however, prevailing wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts as high 25 knots are anticipated through the period. As far as cigs, VFR conditions are forecast to persist across the local area airports for the rest of today through Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 50 69 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 47 69 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 49 68 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 45 65 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 49 66 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport48 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 47 69 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 48 69 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 50 70 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 50 69 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 51 70 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173-183>194- 202>209-217>225-228. && $$ SHORT TERM...Platt LONG TERM....Platt AVIATION...17  527 FXUS64 KJAN 161743 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1243 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant threat for fire danger conditions continue through the weekend. Red Flag Warnings are in effect today, with a fire weather watch on Saturday. - Very little, if any, rainfall is expected through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 An upper trough over the northern plains is poised to move southeast into the region today and this will drag a strong cold front across the area this afternoon. With little moisture to work with, this boundary will be dry with the main effect being gusty northwest winds. The main concern today will be the very dry conditions that persist across the area combined with the gusty winds. A red flag warning is in affect for the entire area this afternoon. The gusty northerly winds will continue on Saturday and along with min RH's in the low to mid 30 percent range a fire weather watch has also been issued. The dry weather will continue through the period and with min RH's in the upper 20 percent range on Sunday and Monday, at least a limited fire weather risk will continue into next week. No rain is expected through the end of next week./15/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 All TAF sites are reporting a mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions as of 1743Z. VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail through the whole period. Gusty northwesterly winds will persist across all sites, with gusts in excess of 30 knots as a cold front sweeps across the area. Low- level wind shear will occur across most TAF sites starting around 01Z Saturday and will prevail through 13Z Saturday. Wind gusts should begin to decrease across the area by late Saturday evening. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 50 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 48 69 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 48 70 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 50 72 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 50 70 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 48 69 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 47 70 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. LA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026. AR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ074-075. && $$ 15/CR  993 FXUS64 KMRX 161732 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 131 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Showers this afternoon and tonight will linger over the mountains into early Saturday before ending. Snow may mix in over the higher mountain peaks late tonight into early Saturday. - Much cooler and drier air will move in for the weekend and the first frost of the season will likely occur Saturday night across portions of the area, with frost possible again Sunday night. - Dry with a warming trend next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Very warm again this afternoon ahead of the front, and highs are flirting with daily records again at CHA, OQT, and TRI. Today's record highs are below: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 10-16 85(1953) 87(1897) 83(1984) 83(2016) A strong cold front will be pushing through our area this afternoon, with gusty winds and some showers. A few rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out far north, but CAPE looks very limited. We will see some wind gusts approaching or in a few spots possibly exceeding 30 mph this afternoon, and these gusty winds will linger through tonight over some of the higher elevations. The showers will continue behind the front tonight as a deep mid/upper level trough digs through the region, then taper off late tonight with just a few showers lingering into Saturday mainly over the higher elevations. As much colder air pushes in behind the front, some snow will likely mix in over the higher mountain peaks later tonight into early Saturday before the precipitation ends. Snow may even whiten the ground with very light snow accumulation over the highest peaks late tonight/early Saturday before it melts. The weekend will be cool with high temperatures well below seasonal normals Saturday and still several degrees below normal Sunday. We will likely see the first frost of the season for portions of the area Saturday night. Right now the question for frost Saturday night is how much wind will be stirring, which could keep the frost confined more to sheltered valleys. It will be mostly clear again and winds will likely be lighter Sunday night, with frost again possible especially north and in outlying areas further south. No frost advisories, since we are past the date for ending the issuance of frost/freeze products for the fall. High pressure is forecast to be in control as we head into next week. Monday through Friday look dry with a gradual warming trend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Front bringing showers and lower ceilings will impact the airports this evening. High confidence that showers will be in the area, but low confidence on coverage and intensity of showers. Winds will remain gusty overnight behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 62 43 66 / 30 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 59 39 65 / 90 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 58 40 64 / 70 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 55 34 64 / 100 10 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99  997 FXUS64 KOHX 161732 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1232 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A breezy cold front is pushing through the area, bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend. - The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning. - There are only low, light rain chances with today's frontal passage and none hereafter, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday Night) Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front is marching through the area this morning bringing overcast skies, gusty northwest winds, and dropping temperatures. It is quite the change from the record-breaking heat we saw Monday through Thursday. Radar shows some light returns west of I-65, so some sprinkles and light showers will be possible this afternoon and evening. Any rain amounts will be a trace to a couple hundredths. Breezy northwest winds will continue overnight with cloud cover lingering. With the cold air advection, temperatures will be able to fall to the lower to mid 40s. Saturday will be the coolest day of the season so far with temperatures only making it to the mid 50s to lower 60s! Breezy northerly winds will continue and RH values over the western half of the CWA will drop to around 30%. I would advise to not burn anything given the ongoing drought conditions. Saturday night will see winds decrease and temperatures drop into the 30s. Light frost is likely in the low- lying areas along the plateau. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The story of the extended period will be the continuing dry conditions. High pressure will be established on Sunday with influences continuing through the work week. The upper low over the Carolina coast may retrograde west onshore mid to late week but those influences will stay east of our area. Locally, we'll see high temperatures slowly climb through the 70s through the week with plenty of sunshine. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front has at long last sprinted across Middle Tennessee, leaving the mid state with a much cooler air mass. There is virtually no precipitation associated with the fropa, but we are enjoying a gusty NW breeze this afternoon, along with a band of MVFR ceilings. Ceilings are likely to improve to VFR later in the afternoon, but then we'll revert back to MVFR during the evening and overnight as another band of occluded-front moisture swings through the region. Tomorrow should remain VFR as winds remain gusty out of the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 46 61 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 44 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 41 54 33 63 / 40 0 0 0 Columbia 45 63 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 43 56 36 65 / 30 0 0 0 Jamestown 42 54 34 63 / 50 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 44 61 36 68 / 10 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 45 62 38 70 / 10 0 0 0 Waverly 45 60 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Rose  050 FXUS66 KMFR 161733 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1033 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... VFR conditions are expected to begin this TAF period, but low ceilings are expected to impact KOTH with LIFR/IFR conditions (80% chance), and possibly MVFR ceilings (40% chance) for KRBG. Some uncertainty exist for the Umpqua basin as clouds spill in from the coast but we are expecting conditions to deteriorate for the basin. In other words, less confidence for KRBG to be impacted by BKN/OVC low clouds compared to coastal areas. Farther inland, both KMFR and KLMT are expected to be VFR throughout the valid TAF period. Otherwise, overall light wind speeds expected through this cycle. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 642 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy winds and low humidities this morning over the ridges and very warm temperatures and very dry conditions this afternoon will bring elevated fire weather conditions today. * A dry cold front will move through Saturday with a cooling trend. * Dry, mild weather expected Sunday. * A stronger low and front approach the coast Sunday night with modest rain chances Monday along the coast and offshore, but low chances for inland areas. DISCUSSION...A high pressure ridge remains over the area today. This will bring continued very warm temperatures with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal across inland areas. Coastal areas will trend cooler compared to yesterday though with a light onshore/marine influence. Of concern today will be elevated fire weather conditions due to to very warm, very dry conditions along with breezy to gusty winds (mainly ridges and east side). Very dry conditions along with breezy to gusty easterly winds are occuring over the ridges/upper slopes this morning. These winds will gradually diminish west of the Cascades late this morning and early this afternoon. East to southeast winds will linger into early this afternoon across the southern Oregon Cascades. Then, east of the Cascades, gusty southerly winds will develop this afternoon. Meanwhile, low afternoon humidities are expected across inland areas with single digit RHs possible, mainly for areas east of the Cascades and in Northern California. These conditions today bring elevated fire weather risk, so please be careful to avoid any unnecessary sparks. On Saturday, a dry cold front will move across the area. This will bring cooler temperatures for most areas. A marine push will bring low clouds into northwest portions of the CWA (mainly coastal areas and the Umpqua Basin). Temperatures will trend near normal along the coast and into Douglas County but elsewhere, will be around 10 degrees above normal. There is a potential for breezy winds (with gusts 15 to 25 mph) Saturday late afternoon/early evening. These winds are likely to be highest along the coast and for areas east of the Cascades. Then, on Sunday, models continue to show dry and mild conditions with areas of morning low clouds west of the southern Oregon Cascades. There is a low chance (10-15%) for light rain in Coos and northwest Douglas County Saturday morning. The forecast remains on track for Sunday night into early next week. A low pressure system with a cold front will approach the coast Sunday night. Current model runs continue show the low remaining offshore as it gradually shifts southward off the coast on Monday. This will result in most the rain occuring offshore. Rain chances are around 25-50% for Monday/Monday night from the Cascades west, with highest chances along the coast. Lower rain chances (10-25%) exist east of the Cascades. Tuesday into Wednesday, models continue to show the low headed into southern California. Some of the moisture may wrap around into southeast portions of the CWA but ensembles continue to show significant variability on the exact track of the low and northern extent of the moisture. So, confidence is low. AVIATION...16/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the TAF period. The exception will be over the marine waters and localized along the coast where LIFR ceilings in marine stratus are possible this morning. Confidence is higher for the marine waters as offshore flow could keep this layer just offshore this morning. Then as offshore flow ease, expect areas of LIFR to develop Friday evening along the coast. Inland, with gusty southeast winds prevailing over the higher terrain this morning, low level wind shear will remain a concern for the Medford terminal, lasting until about 15-18Z as another strong inversion develops and prevents those winds from reaching the surface. Breezy conditions likely persist in Ashland, however. MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Friday, October 16, 2026...Sub-advisory north winds and seas dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells will persist through at least Friday. North winds increase and a new swell arrives around Saturday, building seas higher this weekend. Conditions could become hazardous to small craft again beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday. Then, Monday and Monday night, west swell builds into the area. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$  018 FXUS61 KRNK 161752 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 152 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze Watch issued for late Saturday night through Sunday morning for the western mountain counties. Rainfall amounts have increased across the Piedmont and Southside today through tomorrow. Increasing chances for isolated to scattered showers in the Piedmont early next work week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today, showers continue into Saturday early afternoon. Gusty winds tonight through Saturday. 2) Frost in the mountains Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today, showers continue into Saturday early afternoon. Gusty winds tonight through Saturday. A cold front continues to track eastward towards the area, currently across central WV, and is triggering some scattered showers in that area. The front is fairly progressive, and looks to reach the area by 4 PM or so today. With some MLCAPE ahead of the system, and decent warming today, especially in the Foothills and Piedmont, cannot rule out a few thunderstorms this afternoon, though the threat for strong to severe storms is far to the north of the area. Strong warm air advection ahead of the front will push temperatures to the mid to upper 80s in the Piedmont. Plenty of sunshine still even in the west have allowed temperatures to already rise into the mid 70s, so still have time for a few more degrees of heating to occur before cloud cover and precipitation from the approaching front arrives. The 500mb trough will cross the area tonight, and so expect showers to linger during the overnight hours and through Saturday morning. As the main piece of energy moves to the east by the afternoon, showers will erode generally from west to east, leaving the rest of the day dry. Rainfall amounts have increased, mainly for the Piedmont and VA Southside, so could now see up to a half of an inch of rain for those areas, and between two to three tenths of an inch elsewhere. Wind gusts will continue to increase through the day, peaking during the overnight hours tonight, and gradually diminishing by sunset Saturday, though turning from the southwest to the northwest following the frontal passage later today. Gusts will be between 25 to 35 mph, locally higher along the ridges. Make sure to secure any outdoor Halloween decorations. KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost in the mountains Sunday morning. Confidence has continued to increase on the potential for areas of frost to develop in the mountains by Sunday morning, as high pressure behind the front settles over the Mid Atlantic with clearing skies and calmer winds. Highest confidence is over the westernmost counties in the mountains, from Greenbrier County WV to Watauga County NC, where look to fall to or just below freezing. The elevated valleys will be even more susceptible to frost, as the atmosphere decouples overnight. A Freeze Watch has been issued for those locations for late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Take steps now to protect cold sensitive vegetation. Not as high confidence in frost farther east, especially along the Blue Ridge, as there may be enough wind to keep the atmosphere mixed enough to keep temperatures above freezing. Sunday night into Monday morning will be cold as well, but not quite as cold. Still cold enough to warrant a heavier coat or an extra layer or two while waiting at the bus stop. After that, temperatures start to moderate towards normal for the rest of the week. Early next week, models are coming into consensus on a piece of energy aloft becoming cut off from the main trough as it tracks towards the coast, and a surface low developing along the front once it moves offshore; however, there is still plenty of disagreement in the eventual positioning of the upper cut off low. While any impacts will be mainly limited to the coasts, guidance has trended towards increasing rain chances for the Piedmont and Southside for the early part of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A strong cold front will continue to progress east through the evening, eventually bringing an end to VFR conditions that are currently ongoing. Along with deteriorating conditions, a sharp wind shift will also occur with the passage of the front. Clouds will increase throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening with rain developing. As this occurs, expect a gradual decrease in cigs to at least MVFR by sunset. Lower stratus and more widespread rainfall overnight will likely lead to areas reaching IFR with perhaps a few mountain locations reaching LIFR through daybreak on Sunday. Rain will taper off from west to east tomorrow morning with some rain continuing for LYH/DAN beyond the 18z/2pm Saturday. Once conditions drop below VFR this evening, sub-VFR for nearly all terminals through the end of the valid 24hr TAF period. Gusty winds from the southwest ahead of the front this afternoon, but a quick wind shift to northwest winds will occur behind the frontal passage later this afternoon/evening. Winds will remain gusty from the northwest...20-25kts through Saturday afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Conditions will slowly improve through Saturday night as the front and low pressure move east into the Atlantic. Wind speeds will decrease Saturday evening to 10kt or less around sunset, going light/calm overnight. Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Additional clouds and showers may return for the middle of next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for VAZ007-009-010-012-015. NC...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NCZ001-018. WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ042>044-507-508. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS AVIATION...BMG  959 FXUS63 KFSD 161750 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1250 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northerly winds will continue to gradually taper down this afternoon from west to east. - High (over 80%) chance of widespread frost tonight to early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the lower to mid 30s. A Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight for areas generally east of US Highway 281, with a Frost Advisory elsewhere. - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures return this weekend into early next week with highs back above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Spotty light showers/sprinkles continue to swing southeast through Minnesota and eastern South Dakota early this morning, just moving into far northern Iowa as of 230 AM. Most locations will see a few sprinkles at best, but where low level moisture is a bit deeper, a more concentrated area of light showers will give portions of southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa a few hundredths of an inch. A narrow secondary band of cold advection is moving in along and just behind these showers/sprinkles. This combination could aid in briefly pulling gusts in excess of 45 mph to the surface through the pre-dawn hours. However, not seeing the stronger gusts remain persistent upstream across northeast SD/eastern ND. As such, will continue to hold off issuing a broader Wind Advisory this morning. Will continue to monitor upstream trends, though, and if stronger gusts become more persistent, may need to hoist a short-term wind headline into this morning. Attention then turns to frost/freeze potential tonight into early Saturday morning. Previous shift expanded the Freeze Watch farther west which still seems reasonable. Main question in this area is whether the surface ridge will move east quickly enough to allow an uptick in south winds. This will support a non-diurnal rebound in temperatures late tonight and limit potential for sub-freezing temperatures. The NBM low temperatures remain colder than most raw guidance for temperatures overnight, with even the raw guidance showing a greater chance of sub-freezing temps in our eastern two tiers of counties where winds remain light through much of the overnight. For this reason, opted to join eastern neighbors in upgrading our far east to a Freeze Warning tonight into Saturday morning, while leaving the Freeze Watch in place where confidence is still lower farther west. It should be noted that the current Freeze Watch area, and even areas farther west, still have a very good chance at seeing frost development at some point during the night, so those with sensitive outdoor vegetation will likely need to take some precautions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain is ending from northwest to southeast this afternoon as a northern stream upper trough and surface low drag a cold front through the region. At the same time the northern stream upper trough is merging into the southern stream trough responsible for the rain, deepening and strengthening the over all system. Strong winds have begun to develop in response to the tightening SPG and a strong push of CAA. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. The strongest winds will be located over central South Dakota where gusts to 50 mph are possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this area until 4 am Friday morning. The strongest winds will move east overnight with the upper trough but should remain under advisory criteria at 35 to 40 mph. Thanks to the mixy winds and lingering clouds overnight lows tonight will remain in the upper 30s to low 40s. Early Friday morning there is a chance for additional light, scattered rain showers as moisture wraps around the surface low located over Minnesota. This combined with a second strong push of CAA will result in the LLJ increasing to 50+ kts over east central South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. An area of wind gusts up to 45 mph may be possible in southwest Minnesota. At this time, confidence in winds meeting advisory level criteria are too low to issue a headline. But this will need to be monitored through Friday morning. Winds gradually taper off through Friday afternoon. Highs for Friday will be below average for this time of year (average is low 60s) in the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds break up through the afternoon and skies will be clear overnight with nearly calm winds. Radiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the mid to low 30s. Areas along and east of I-29 are likely to see temperatures fall to 30 degrees, therefore have issued a Freeze Watch from late Friday night into Saturday morning. Precautions are recommended for sensitive outdoor plants. Areas to the west of I-29 may have the potential for frost development, but confidence was too low at this time to issue a Frost Advisory. An upper ridge builds into the area for the weekend. Winds turn southerly and WAA will boost our highs back into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows will be in the 40s. Dry and warmer than average conditions continue Sunday through the middle part of next week. Highs will warm from the the mid 60s Sunday and Monday into the low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Chances for rain return for the second half of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. Northerly winds will continue to diminish from west to east through the remainder of the afternoon, with winds turning light and variable this evening. Another push of higher winds, this time with a southeasterly direction, will move across the area from west to east heading into tomorrow morning. Winds with this second push won't be as strong as what we've seen this morning, but gusts to 20-30 kts can be expected by the end of the period. Slightly stronger wind gusts to 35 kts are also expected by the end of the period along the higher elevations of the Coteau des Prairies. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>071. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064. MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...JH DISCUSSION...AJP AVIATION...Samet  586 FXUS63 KIWX 161744 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and windy today with lake effect rain showers. The strongest wind gusts are expected downwind of Lake Michigan across Berrien and La Porte Counties where gusts to 45 mph are likely Friday afternoon and evening. A wind advisory is in effect there. - Frost possible both tonight and Saturday night. - After below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures will warm back above normal early next week. Additionally, dry weather looks to persist through much of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1124 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A band of light rain showers across northwest Ohio will depart over the next few hours tied to low level fgen forcing with the sfc cold front that has tracked east of the area early this morning. In its wake, multiple bands of lake effect rain showers have developed north of the Toll Road as a cold air mass combined with lake temps running 2 to 4 deg C above normal have been favorable to realize lake induced instability. A strong upper level trough with slight positive tilt is oriented from the northern Great Lakes to the Central Plains and will shift across the region this afternoon allowing for secondary sfc trough passage. This will result in winds veering more northerly later this afternoon behind the trough with the focus for lake effect rain showers shifting into northwest Indiana with fetch more favored along the long axis of Lake Michigan. Wind gusts have been somewhat tempered behind the initial cold front but will likely become a bit more pronounced heading into late afternoon/early evening following this secondary trough passage and a brief period of steeper low level lapse rates with more depth. A modest surge of sfc pressure rises with this secondary trough passage may also help to augments sfc gusts in the 19-23Z time period across the north. Will continue with wind advisory for Berrien/LaPorte Counties, with the time period of 19Z-23Z still looking like the most optimal period to realize near advisory level northerly gusts downwind of Lake Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As a mid level trough digs across the Central US, an upper low gets shoved northeastward pushing a surface low into southeast Canada/Northeast US. At the same time, a 1040 mb surface high slides southeastward into the Central CONUS. The presence of this strong surface high often indicates the arrival of a cooler airmass and that is the case this time. Given our departure of above normal temperatures and the arrival of this cool airmass, we'll have some hazards to contend with today and this weekend. First, yesterday's cold front shifts eastward and the vigorous vort max associated with the mid level trough dives through Lk MI late this afternoon into this evening. Given the warm lake and the 850 mb temps dipping to around or below 0C, lake enhancement is expected to cause rain. A surface trough is expected to swing through the southeast area of Lk MI around 18z with ample low level moisture, low level wind convergence, and building lake enhanced instability. Given the movement of this trough and swiveling trajectories from northwest to north, the area with the best chance to see "higher" QPF is southern Berrien into LaPorte where 0.25 to 0.5" is forecast, tapering off the farther away from the lake you are. The heaviest of the rain appears to get into Berrien county midday (15 or 16z) and continues swiveling southward through the afternoon and into the evening. The other hazard is wind gusts, which look to get underway along lk MI- adjacent locations around 19 or 20z before pulling away around 3z. Given the surface trough, there could be some isentropic downglide enough to work an isolated 45 kt gust down to the surface. Otherwise, it appears that frequent gusts between 30 and 40 mph will be possible during that time as low level lapse rates become conducive. The strongest of the gusts are adjacent to the lake, tapering off the farther away you get. This is why the wind advisory was hoisted for Lk MI- adjacent locales. The mention of the cold air also brings to mind the chance for frost. Especially with overnight lows dropping into the 30s from from tonight/Sat AM to Sunday night/Mon AM and potentially again Tue AM. The main issue with Friday night/Sat AM is the gradient which could keep winds strong enough to eliminate formation of frost. A lesser possibility is lake clouds hang on, but would probably lean towards subsidence on the eastern side of the lake clouds removing them. Clouds appear to already be dissipating on the NAM by around 6 to 9z for maybe all of our counties (lowest confidence on LaPorte to White county line). This would give areas along or about IN-15 north of US-24 on into MI the best chance to see frost tonight. Surface high pressure continues to poke into the area Saturday morning with the stronger gradient lurking to our north. So, cloud cover appears less of factor. It's often that as return flow begins to occur that we get our best frost chances as winds slacken, but the boundary layer is able to get back to what it was the previous night or potentially colder. So, Saturday night has the best chance for frost. There is also the possibility of a freeze primarily along and south of US-24 Sun AM with a couple hours of temps right around there then. Surface high pressure then becomes stagnant across the eastern CONUS as blocking builds across the Atlantic. The NAO/AO both drop negative during this time. The upper jet also retreats back up into Canada. A slow moving trough moves into the western CONUS, but takes its time arriving into the area potentially continuing to provide dry weather into next weekend. Temperatures trend warmer with highs returning to the 70s during the next work week and lows warming slowly through the 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 998mb low is over the interior Northeast, taking its trailing cloud layer with it. Below, lake enhanced stratus lingers along with plenty of lake effect rain showers. Model guidance suggests, and water vapor indicates, a thermal trough is working its way south of Lake Michigan which has resulted in an uptick in lake effect activity. As a result, a fairly steady period of showers is anticipated at KSBN in the near-term, with this activity arriving soon after to KFWA. Guidance is in fair agreement that lake effect activity dissipates near or beyond 00z as NNE flow becomes dominant. MVFR ceilings gradually scatter out along with decreasing wind speeds. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for INZ005>009- 014-017-104-116-204-216. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for INZ006>009-017-018-023>027-032>034-116-216. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ103-203. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025. MI...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ078>081. Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Brown  038 FXUS64 KEPZ 161753 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1153 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1152 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong backdoor cold front is moving through tonight, bringing gusty winds and well below normal temperatures into the weekend. - High Wind Warning is in effect for far west Texas and portions of southern New Mexico into Friday. Wind gusts to 60 mph are possible along mountain west slopes. - Scattered rain showers for the middle of next week as temperatures rebound. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 949 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A potent cold front is pushing through the Borderland this evening, bringing strong NE winds behind it. Gusts over 50 mph have already been seen E of the US 54 corridor. The strength of the sfc high behind the front is more in-line with what we tend to see in the middle of winter (1045mb-ish over central high plains on Fri). This will result in an impressive pressure gradient across the CWA as the front sweeps through in the near-term. West mtn slopes will see the gustiest winds, reaching 60 mph or higher. The strongest winds are expected to occur from now through early Fri AM with winds easing a bit during the day on Fri and shifting more easterly. Generally 25-35 mph sustained winds are modeled with a pocket of lighter winds from Las Cruces up towards Holloman AFB. No changes have been made to the wind headlines. Forecast remains on track. Dust models, including the RRFS and NOAA AQ model, show a signal for blowing dust through the overnight, favoring S Otero County and far west TX. Low chance of 1 mile VIS in isolated areas, most likely in El Paso County. Any dust lifted off White Sands should get blocked by the San Andres and struggle to reach the upper RGV. The dust threat lowers Fri AM and shifts out W towards the Lordsburg Playa where winds remain strong. Confidence is lower in seeing dust impacts in Hidalgo Co compared to eastern areas, where BLDU Advisories are in effect until 9am Fri. An upper low cuts off from the flow off the Baja coast for the rest of the week, pulling moisture into it. A ridge of high pressure extends from the NW at the same time, keeping most of the moisture to our south. Precip chances remain near zero into the weekend as winds subside through Sat. The upper low opens up into a shortwave on Sun, bringing some of its moisture into the region and slight rain chances for western areas. Then, a Pacific storm system dives down the West Coast, pulling more subtropical moisture northward through midweek from the Pacific. PWs climb towards 1" with low- medium rain chances area-wide late in the period. A low flood threat is present as NBM 90th %-ile shows 24-hr rain amounts of 1-2" Wed and Thu. Confidence is low in impacts for this midweek rain event. Temperatures crash to unseasonably cool levels (highs 10-20 degrees below normal) behind tonight's front. Lowland highs in the low-mid 60s are forecast through Sat with cold air advection ongoing. It'll feel more like winter than early fall, especially in the Sacs Fri AM as wind chills reach the teens. Lowland areas to the N and E are likely to dip into the 30s Sat AM with patchy frost. Temperatures rebound towards normal early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Breezy to windy conditions will start to slowly decrease tonight. Winds out in western NM (like KDMN) and the higher terrain stays quite breezy tonight. Saturday will become breezy as well but not to the level that we saw last night or today. Breezier winds out in KDMN tomorrow afternoon and continued dry conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 548 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front ushered in strong winds and some blowing dust this morning. These elevated winds will continue through most of the day, before slowing this evening. Min RH's today and Saturday will be in the mid to upper teens in the lowlands and in the 20's in area mountains. Sunday will start both a warming trend and moisture will return to the region. Rain chances will be back in the forecast for much of next week, with min RH's above 30% across the area. Ventilation rates today will be very good to excellent and then a little lower on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 43 64 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 35 60 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 39 62 43 65 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 37 62 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 22 47 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 39 62 46 65 / 0 0 0 20 Silver City 37 59 43 61 / 0 0 30 40 Deming 41 64 45 66 / 0 0 0 20 Lordsburg 43 62 48 65 / 0 0 40 40 West El Paso Metro 46 64 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 37 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 44 69 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 35 56 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 43 67 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 42 63 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 42 65 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 38 63 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 39 65 45 69 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 45 64 48 68 / 0 0 0 20 Orogrande 37 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 26 57 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 26 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 25 54 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 31 56 38 60 / 0 0 10 20 Hillsboro 38 61 44 63 / 0 0 0 20 Spaceport 35 63 43 65 / 0 0 0 20 Lake Roberts 32 62 38 64 / 0 0 30 30 Hurley 37 60 42 63 / 0 0 10 30 Cliff 43 69 49 69 / 0 0 40 40 Mule Creek 40 64 46 64 / 0 0 30 40 Faywood 37 59 43 62 / 0 0 0 30 Animas 45 63 48 67 / 0 0 30 30 Hachita 42 62 46 65 / 0 0 20 20 Antelope Wells 43 64 46 67 / 0 0 10 20 Cloverdale 41 60 45 66 / 0 0 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley. High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel. Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley- Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher  663 FXUS64 KLUB 161745 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Cool and breezy conditions continue this afternoon. - The first freeze of the season is likely for much of the Caprock late tonight into early Saturday morning. - Temperatures warm back near normal next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Fall came in with enthusiasm this morning with widespread low temps in the 40s and blustery north winds. Winds will remain elevated through at least mid afternoon before gradually decreasing as surface high pressure begins to settle over the FA. Surface temps have remained cooler than expected through noon with most areas on the Caprock still in the mid to upper 40s and in the low 50s off the Caprock. There is still time for temps to warm, but cloud cover would need to clear before the end of peak heating, and satellite is showing the opposite. The Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a warning for tonight and Saturday morning. There is some concern with temperatures dropping to freezing or below across the southern half of the warning, mostly due to cloud cover. Models continue to hint at clearing skies after sunset just as the surface high begins to settle over the region. If skies do indeed clear, there should not be too much of an issue for temps to drop to freezing or below on the Caprock. Drier air continues to work its way into the FA with dewpoints currently in the mid to upper 20s and still slowly dropping. This will help temps drop given clouds do clear. Winds will be slow to veer to the south Saturday with winds remaining mostly light and generally out of the north. This will help to keep highs in the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The forecast Sunday and beyond remains fairly benign. Upper ridging will remain overhead through most of the coming week and will help to highs by mid week to the mid 70s on the Caprock and low 80s off the Caprock with morning lows back in the mid 50s. Another upper disturbance will begin to approach the FA by the end of the forecast period and could bring additional rainfall, but models continue to differ from run to run given the forecast being nearly a week out. In the event that rain chances increase, amounts will not be nearly what was observed over the past few days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail. Strong northerly winds around 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots will continue through the early evening hours before decreasing the rest of the evening. Overnight into tomorrow, winds remain from the north, however weaken significantly to around 5 to 10 knots. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ021>024- 027>030-033>036-039>041. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...10  839 FXUS64 KLZK 161747 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION & KEY MESSAGES... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 -Red Flag Warnings are in effect for portions of southern to southeast Arkansas through this afternoon. Elevated fire weather danger will extend through Saturday. -Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions over portions of northern Arkansas. -Warming trend back to above normal levels by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Radar early this morning shows scattered showers across parts of central and north central Arkansas. The showers are associated with the upper shortwave trough moving across the central and northern plain dragging an attendant cold front through the state through this afternoon. Behind the front, cooler and breezy conditions will develop and then persist across the state through at least early this afternoon across the state. Winds will veer from south/southeast ahead of the boundary to north/northwest behind the boundary. Winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common with gusts to 30 mph possible across the state. By this evening, the upper trough will push into the eastern Great Lakes region and cold front will exit the state, with northwest flow becoming established across the state. Model guidance keeps the state within northwest flow through at least the first half of the upcoming work week. The aforementioned trough that is dragging a cold front through the state today, will move to the lower Appalachians region on Saturday. The trough will move to the Carolinas region by Sunday with both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF showing the trough deepening by Saturday night into Sunday. At the same time, high pressure over the Bay of Campeche will expand northward into the western and northwest Gulf coast region Saturday night into Sunday. The cooler and drier air behind the front filtering into the state will lead to morning lows across the state in the 40s across the southern two thirds of the state this weekend, Lows across the northern half will be in the mid to upper 30s on Saturday and Sunday. Some patchy frost in higher terrain areas is not out of the question. High temperatures this weekend will run around 5 degrees below normal for the state through the end of the weekend. As we head into the new work week, high pressure will continue to expand northward into the central Plains by late Sunday into Monday, as the upper trough and cut off low that brought cooler and drier air to the state continues to strengthen/deepen over the eastern seaboard. The upper trough will push off the eastern US coast as into the Atlantic Ocean by Monday. This will allow for the ridge axis of the ridge to move westward toward Arkansas with winds veer from north/northwest on Sunday night into Monday to south/southeast by Monday across the state. With the return of south to southeast flow across the state, temperatures will remain to above normal by the middle of the next work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Expect breezy north to northwest winds to persist through sunset, then diminish afterwards prior to north to northeasterly winds increasing again tomorrow with gusts 20-25 kts, especially for the central to southern Arkansas terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 44 65 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 44 68 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 39 62 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 44 67 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 46 67 42 69 / 0 0 0 0Monticello AR 48 67 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 41 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 42 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 45 65 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 44 67 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 43 68 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 44 66 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 46 68 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ065>069. && $$ DISCUSSION...76 AVIATION...77  792 FXUS65 KBOU 161746 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1146 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry/sunny weather today with another freeze north and east of the Denver metro area tonight. - Mainly dry and warmer for the weekend through the middle of next week. - Next storm system will arrive late next week with an increasing chance of showers and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/... Issued at 1113 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent obs show temperatures starting to drop over parts of the eastern plains, and most of the cloud cover from earlier today has cleared out. A Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9am Friday for the eastern plains & I-25 corridor, where lows tonight are expected to drop into the upper 20s-low 30s. Winds should stay light across the area overnight, with some breezier conditions (gusts of about 15- 20mph) in the northeasternmost plains. Cooler temperatures persist Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s across the plains & I-25 corridor. Downsloping winds should keep lows tomorrow night above freezing for most of the foothills, while the northern and easternmost plains should again see lows in the upper 20s-low 30s. Despite the good model agreement in below freezing temperatures across the plains Friday night, we have decided to hold off for now on issuing any frost or freeze products until we know tonight's low temperatures. Should a killing freeze hit tonight (low temps <= 28F), we would not issue another product; however, if lows don't quite reach that 28 degrees or less threshold, we may be looking at another frost/freeze product. Temperatures warm back up on Saturday as a ridge moves into the area. Highs are expected to be in the upper 70s on Saturday as the ridge axis moves across the state, with southwest flow dominating on the upstream side of the ridge by Sunday, keeping temps on the warmer side through the first half of next week and pulling in some mid-level moisture. While conditions should stay dry over the plains and urban corridor, we can't rule out a few afternoon rain/snow showers over the higher terrain Sunday through Wednesday. Currently, both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic solutions bring in our next trough Thursday or Friday. This far out, though, the timing of this system is highly uncertain, as is the location of the cutoff low/trough axis. We'll see how the models trend and see if there's any better agreement from run to run and across models as we get closer to the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/... Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A beautiful fall day is in store for today with no aviation impacts. Light SE winds will develop at the sites this afternoon before slowly turning clockwise this evening to drainage winds. KBJC should remain a little more variable through the night compared to the other sites. Towards the morning (~14-17z), winds will turn variable before settling into another light E/SE flow in the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGS AVIATION...Schnell  001 FXUS66 KOTX 161751 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1051 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry weather pattern into early next week with warmer than normal temperatures. - A cold front on Saturday will bring breezy to locally windy conditions and the potential for patchy blowing dust. && .SYNOPSIS... Friday will remain dry with mild temperatures and light winds. On Saturday breezy to windy conditions will develop with the passage of a cold front. Dry conditions return early next week with light winds and temperatures in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Friday: A strong upper-level ridge responsible for the recent string of warm and dry weather will begin to slide east. As the ridge axis shifts into Western Montana, southwest winds will increase aloft drawing warmer air into the region. High temperatures on Friday will warm another 5 degrees topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s under sunny skies. Winds will remain light with a general easterly direction in the morning and slowly shift to the south in the afternoon. Speeds will remain below 10 mph except on the Palouse where easterly winds will be near 15 mph Friday morning. Saturday: A shortwave swings out of the Gulf of Alaska and across the Canadian border dragging a cold front through the Inland NW. Gusty westerly winds will develop across the region as pressure gradients tighten and afternoon mixing draws down 25-35kts of winds aloft. The track of this system to the north is not ideal for strong enough winds for wind highlights but there will undoubtedly be the potential for some impacts. Anglers should be prepared for choppy lakes. Following a string of warm and dry weather, fuels remain unseasonably dry and the threat for swift fire spread in dry grasses will remain elevated, especially in the late afternoon as humidity levels drop between 25-30%. There will also be a threat for patchy blowing dust near recently worked fields on the Waterville Plateau and areas of the western and central Columbia Basin. Typically this time of year, dust sources are centered near recently plowed potato fields and where winter wheat has been planted. Ag reports suggests 70% of the winter wheat has emerged which tends to lower the risk. Nonetheless, this is something that will need to be monitored closely. Winds will increase Saturday morning, peak mid afternoon and come down in the evening. Sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph will be accompanied by gusts of 25-35 mph. The higher range of the winds will be found across the foothills of the East Slopes, across the Waterville Plateau, and into the upper Columbia Basin. A second area of enhanced winds will channel along the Highway 12 corridor in the foothills of the Blue Mountains. There is a 65-75% chance for sustained winds of 20 mph or greater across the Waterville Plateau and Wilbur area and near 40% at Pomeroy. There is a 80% chance for gusts to reach at least 30 mph in these areas and 35% chance for gusts to reach 40 mph. For much of North Idaho, Spokane Area, Moses Lake, and Omak gusts will be more on the order of 25-30 mph with sustained speeds around 15 mph. Wind direction will start off from the west/southwest and shift toward the west/northwest into the afternoon into the evening. Little to no precipitation is expected with the incoming front east of the Cascade Crest. The Cascade crest will have a 90% chance for showers, some enhanced by the Puget Sound Convergence zone but as precipitable water value tank late in the day, I expect these showers to wane by the evening. Snow levels on the Cascade Crest will be near 8000 feet, briefly dipping near 5000 feet before showers taper off. Sunday-Wednesday: In the wake of Saturday's cold front, a shortwave ridge of high pressure will build over the region promoting lighter winds, sunny skies, and afternoon temperatures in the lower 60s. Another trough will approach the WA Coast Monday but a bulk of its energy will dig southward into California as a strong northerly jet develops on its backside. This will leave the Inland NW in the decaying northerly branch of a elongated trough. A trickle of moisture working its way into the region will introduce a 10-15% chance for showers but little in the way of rainfall. Temperatures will not change much from Sunday through Tuesday cooling a degree or two and winds will shift around at light speeds from the east to south to north over the three day period. Overall, weather impacts are expected to be minimal. Thursday-Friday: There is strong support from the ensemble models for another trough to swing across the northern Pacific and through the PacNW. This will bring another bout of windy conditions and shot of cooler air in the region bringing the first potential for seasonal temperatures for the entire week (normal highs are in the 50s to low 60s). The incoming system will phase with the cutoff low over Northern California and has some potential to bring more shower activity into the region. Though, I am not convinced this will bring wetting rains (>0.10 inches) as models seem to be trending drier and drier each consecutive run and only carry a 10-20% chance for a hundredth on the latest run. We'll have to see how this period evolves in the coming days. /sb && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: A cold front will approach the Northwest Region today. Drier easterly winds ahead of the front will promote VFR conditions with some high level cirrus clouds filtering across. Winds will be particularly breezy at KPUW sustained at 15-18 kts into the early afternoon (until 21Z) before decreasing a bit later on. Cold front passage will be in the late morning on Saturday between 15-18Z at KEAT and KMWH to early afternoon 18Z-22Z at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS. A brief period of low level wind shear is expected at KPUW between 15-17Z Saturday morning before westerly winds aloft are able to mix down to the surface. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 70 43 63 34 59 39 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 69 40 62 35 59 35 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Pullman 70 43 63 35 59 38 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 73 43 71 41 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 68 33 66 28 62 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 66 37 61 32 59 33 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 69 42 61 34 58 37 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Moses Lake 69 38 68 31 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 68 47 66 40 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 68 40 67 33 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  810 FXUS66 KPDT 161746 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1046 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry and warm conditions through the day today 2. Breezy conditions through the Grande Ronde Valley today 3. Breezy through the wind prone areas Saturday and light showers in the Cascades && .DISCUSSION... Current nighttime satellite is showing mostly clear skies over the region. This will allow for cooler overnight temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s. Warmer temperatures along the foothills of the Blues due to the easterly downslope wind regime causing temperatures to be warmer in the mid to upper 40s with isolated 50s. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s across portions of central OR and the eastern mountains. The Basin, Gorge, foothills and Yakima/Kittitas Valleys will see temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Not a lot of change for the forecast since last night/ Deterministic models continue to be in firm agreement with the upper level ridge remaining over the area through Friday afternoon. Temperatures will peak today with in office calculations continuing to show temperatures to be nearly 15-20 degrees above seasonal normal. Looking at the ensemble guidance, 90% of the HREF raw ensembles show temperatures to be in the low to mid 70s through the Basin, foothills, Gorge and Yakima/Kittitas Valleys while central OR and the John Day Basin will see upper 70s with some possible 80s mixed in. Models show that today (Friday) will see the synoptic transition of the upper level ridge moving east and an upper level trough building into the region from British Columbia. As the ridge leaves the region, current runs of the deterministic models show a weak surface level high in Treasure Valley while a weak surface low is over the Columbia Basin. This is the perfect synoptic set up for easterly breezy winds through the Grande Ronde Valley. Easterly winds are currently already flowing over the Blues based off ground observations. Winds through the area will begin to pick after midnight Thursday reaching its peak after 11 AM and persisting through 5 PM Friday. HREF raw ensembles show sustained winds of 20- 25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph with some isolated 40 mph gusts with above 80% agreement. Saturday models show the upper level trough beginning to dig into the PacNW. As the leading edge of the trough wedges itself against the Cascades, the pressure gradients begin to tighten leading to breezy conditions through the typical winds prone gap areas. Looking at the NBM raw ensembles, 60-80% are in agreement that the Kittitas Valley will see winds between 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30-35 mph. The Gorge will see 15-20 mph sustained winds and gusts of 25-30 mph. With this front, light precipitation along the crests of the Cascades is expected with near 0.03 inches in 24 hours and 90% HREF ensemble agreement. By the beginning of next week models show the upper level trough form into a low pressure system and begin to move to the south. Models show the low to cutoff and move to the south of the region. This will bring chances of wrap around moisture to the Blues and the Wallowa Mountains. Clusters are however struggling to resolve the regime with timing, positioning and strength all varying between the models. The only agreement the models seem to have is the fact there is a low pressure system making its way along the west coast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the period. Winds will generally be light (under 10 knots) with gusts around 15-20 knots possible for DLS, PDT, and ALW towards the end of the TAF period (50-75% confidence). Gusts of around 15 knots are also possible for BDN from around 06z-10z (50% confidence). Skies will likely (greater than 75% chance) remain mostly clear for much of the TAF period, with cloud cover remaining above 25kft. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 73 43 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 74 50 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 69 39 72 35 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 70 43 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 70 41 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 67 40 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 79 35 67 29 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 76 45 70 36 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 76 39 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 75 47 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM PDT this evening for ORZ694. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...21/71  059 FXUS63 KSGF 161714 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1214 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s today, and in the 60s over the weekend. Additionally, expect gusty northerly winds up to 25-35 mph with isolated patches of light rain today. - Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, Saturday and Sunday mornings as lows dip into the 30s. The highest confidence is on Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Ozarks (50-95% chance). - Warming trend back to well above normal temperatures begins early next week, with highs around 80 F expected by Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 It's a windy night as the backside pressure gradient of a textbook mid-latitude cyclone overspreads the region. Associated cold air advection with the 20-30 mph wind gusts have dropped temperatures into the 50s, on track for locations to reach the 40s as dawn arrives. Meanwhile, very thin streaks of light rain are progressing through the eastern Ozarks along the 850-700 mb portion of the cold front that stretches all the way from the low in Michigan, to north-central Mexico. Based on mesoanalysis, this cold front arguably then extends northwest into SW Arizona and SE California, where an upper-level low currently churns. Cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s today: Persistent cold air advection from 18-23 mph sustained north- northwesterly winds (with gusts up to 30-35 mph), paired with increasing low-level clouds from the comma head of the mid-latitude cyclone will keep temperatures quite cool today, with highs right around 50 for most locations except for extreme south-central Missouri where temperatures could reach near 60 F. After brief morning sunshine, patches of light rain later: HREF mean cloud layer output depicts the current cloud shield seen on infrared satellite imagery to clear to the southeast early this morning. This will allow for some brief sunshine before the aforementioned comma-head low-level clouds will overspread the region. Within this regime, forecast soundings depict a thin layer of moisture below dry air and capping aloft at 700 mb. Below 700 mb, short-term guidance actually depicts a very short layer of instability upwards of 50-75 J/kg. With northerly winds up the slope of the Ozark Plateau, this will likely create streaks of weak "convective" sprinkles across the area this afternoon. Increasing confidence in patchy frost/freezes this weekend: As the cold front dives through the Gulf, a rather abnormal high pressure system (~99.5th percentile for this time of year) will move through our region over the course of the weekend. This will keep highs cooler (well actually quite seasonable) in the 60s Saturday and Sunday. Lows are also forecast to be colder in the 30s, which will bring frost potential both Saturday and Sunday mornings. However, tonight into Sunday morning will still have wind speeds of 8-12 mph along with residual cloud cover, which should limit much of any frost potential. The much higher confidence falls on Saturday night and Sunday morning as the bulk of the high pressure brings calmer winds and clear skies. The best chance of frost appears to be in the eastern Ozarks where lows are forecast to range from 30-34 F, meaning that some areas, especially those in low-lying valleys, could see below 30 F. Latest Frost probabilities (using <35 F as a proxy) are 15-40% along and north of I-44, and in the eastern Ozarks, on Saturday morning. Then, a 50-95% chance east of Highway 5 on Sunday morning. Latest Freeze probabilities (<32 F) are only pockets of 5-10% Saturday morning (mainly in valleys). Then, a 20-50% chance in the eastern Ozarks Sunday morning. For some context, the average first frost date for the eastern Ozarks ranges from Oct. 10-15, while the average first freeze data ranges from Oct. 17-22. So while we have had quite warm temperatures September and the first half of October, the first frost/freeze is actually coming around right on time in terms of climatology. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Warming trend back to well above normal temperatures next week: Global ensembles are then coming into better agreement on a slow wave progression of a digging trough/low over the SW CONUS. This will lead to a prolonged amplified ridging pattern over our area, renewing southerly surface flow, keeping weather dry, and initiating a warming trend to well above normal temperatures by the middle of next week. Highs Monday are forecast to be around 70 F, with highs reaching the lower 80s by Wednesday and Thursday. For context, normal highs for that time of year are in the upper 60s. Currently, October (MTD) is the 2nd warmest on record, coming off of the warmest ever September on record. While the cool temperatures this weekend will put a dent in that placement, a return to persistent above normal temperatures will likely keep this October ranked amongst some of the warmest. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Near-MVFR clouds will continue to fill in across southern Missouri at the beginning of the TAF period, with ceilings generally between 3000 to 4000 ft. A few isolated pockets of sprinkles will move southeast through the area this afternoon; no mention was included in the current TAFs as no impacts to ceiling or visibility are expected. Breezy northwest winds with gusts of 25 to 30 kt this afternoon will gradually wind down after 00Z before shifting to the northeast after 12Z. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Didio  290 FXUS65 KABQ 161719 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1119 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1116 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Brisk conditions will prevail behind a backdoor cold front today, but with speeds well below yesterday's. - The first freeze of the season is forecast for portions of eastern, central and northwest NM tonight into Saturday morning. - Precipitation chances return Sunday across western NM, then increase and spread east across the area from mid through late week as a Pacific storm system impacts the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Wind speeds are trending down more rapidly than previously forecast behind the backdoor front, so have cancelled the High Wind Warning for the middle RGV and South Central Highlands. If current trends continue, we'll likely cancel the remainder of the warning by sunrise. Strong cold air advection behind the front is resulting in brisk conditions and that will continue for most areas today. The current Freeze Warning across portions of northeast and east central NM will need winds to diminish to work out, which is still likely at this time. High temperatures today will range from 5 to 15 degrees below average. Significant drying of the atmosphere is expected today into Saturday as ridging aloft strengthens as the retrograding upper low pulls up stationary offshore of the Baja Peninsula. With a very dry atmosphere and decoupling winds this evening, an ideal radiational cooling setup will bring the coldest night so far this season and a Freeze Watch is in effect for much of the lower elevations including the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros. Below average temperatures will continue Saturday, with highs in the 60s most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Moisture advection will be the rule from Saturday night through Monday as the Baja low fills and ejects northeast into the region, bringing Pacific moisture and increasing chances for precipitation. This will be a top-down moistening process favoring western NM through Monday. All eyes turn to a potent upper level low diving south offshore of CA Tuesday, which is forecast to turn inland over SoCal on Wednesday. PWATs are forecast to rise further through Thursday as the upper level low fills and lifts northeast across the region, steering remnant tropical moisture into NM. Thursday still looks to be the wettest day next week and our forecast PoPs continue to trend up. This will be a warmer system, so rain is likely from the mid-slopes of the mountains into the lower elevations with snow across the peaks. The 00Z medium range model solutions are generally agreeable through at least Thursday, so forecast confidence is moderate to high for a return to wetter conditions next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will persist today behind last night's backdoor cold front. North to northeast winds with gusts around 25-30kt will prevail across eastern NM, while easterly winds with 20-30kt gusts will prevail elsewhere. High clouds across southeast NM will wane tonight, resulting in mostly clear skies areawide. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. Gusty winds will continue behind a backdoor cold front today, but well below yesterday's speeds. Drier and colder conditions will prevail behind the cold front through Saturday, with vent rates trending down. A Pacific disturbance will bring higher humidity and chances forwetting precipitation to western NM Sunday, then spread east into central NM Monday into Tuesday. A more significant Pacific low will impact the region from mid through late week, with higher humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation that will favor areas from the central mountain chain westward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 38 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 64 28 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 58 31 61 38 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 63 25 65 36 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 58 28 61 36 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 60 26 62 33 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 59 31 63 35 / 0 0 0 20 Magdalena....................... 56 29 58 38 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 54 27 58 34 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 64 32 67 37 / 0 0 0 20 Glenwood........................ 71 34 68 43 / 0 0 0 20 Chama........................... 59 30 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 57 36 61 42 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 59 29 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 32 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 51 24 56 26 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 54 11 60 16 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 60 29 62 26 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 55 30 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 64 33 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 58 31 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 29 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 36 63 41 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 34 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 31 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 34 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 66 27 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 33 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 66 26 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 67 33 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 66 27 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 63 34 63 40 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 34 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 66 33 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 30 60 36 / 5 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 59 29 62 38 / 5 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 58 25 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 60 20 63 26 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 53 26 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 55 26 60 33 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 54 26 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 59 32 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 27 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 48 27 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 55 25 66 28 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 57 24 67 27 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 55 26 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 54 29 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 55 27 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 62 33 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 58 30 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 60 29 67 37 / 0 0 00 Clovis.......................... 56 31 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 57 28 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 59 32 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 63 33 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 58 30 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 56 29 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NMZ201-217>220-222>225-228>237-239>241. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...34  746 FXUS65 KMSO 161728 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1128 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Gusty winds on Saturday creating choppy conditions for area lakes, especially across northwest Montana. - Cooler and showery by early to mid next week. High pressure conditions continue through tomorrow creating stable conditions. What does that produce in terms of weather, valley inversions, light winds, limited afternoon warming, and cold mornings with patchy freezing fog and low stratus. By Saturday afternoon, our valley inversions break and temperatures warm into the lower 60s western MT and upper 60s low 70s in north-central ID. A dry cold front will approach from the west pushed by strong mid-level winds. As the atmosphere destabilizes those winds will translate down into valleys. Expect winds 15 to 25 mph in valleys with some locations in northwest MT seeing gusts to 35 mph, while mountains receive gusts 35 to 45 mph. For this reason, we have issued a lake wind advisory for those wanting to enjoy one potentially last taste of summer. Winds will create choppy conditions on area lakes after 2 pm, so plan accordingly. High pressure temporarily rebuilds on Sunday with a return to stable conditions. Expect light winds, cool mornings with patchy fog, and afternoon temperatures that do not quite hit full potential. The models keep the Northern Rockies 'in between' or what we call split flow. The polar jet stream remains well north in Canada, while an area of low pressure is expected to close off over California. Light showers, cool temperatures, and breezy afternoons are expected, with no major systems currently. If that low pressure over California ejects more northeasterly than the current forecast, a more exciting forecast may result. && .AVIATION...High pressure remains over western Montana and north central Idaho through Saturday morning. VFR conditions will dominate the airspace. However, valley fog may develop once again in lower river valleys, especially near KGPI. Fog may become dense for a few hours this morning near this airfield between 17/1100z and 17/1600z. An easterly gradient develops around midnight, I-90 and south, and may mitigate fog development. A cold front will move through the region later Saturday bringing increased mid level cloud cover, and more notably, gusty westerly winds. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for Flathead/Mission Valleys. ID...None. && $$  372 FXUS65 KPUB 161705 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1105 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High potential for a widespread hard freeze ending the growing season across the southeast plains tonight through Saturday morning - Warming into the weekend with a weak system bringing some mountain showers Sunday and Monday - Next system will bring increasing winds by mid week and the potential for rain and mountain snows sometime late week or next weekend && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Reinforcing surge of cold dry air will descend through the plains overnight behind a trailing upper trough dropping through the northern and central high plains towards the upper Midwest. Winds will remain elevated across the plains overnight/early this morning as a reinforcing high pressure moves through the region, but it will also bring drier air under a mostly clear skies. Best chance for a hard freeze this morning still looks like Northern El Paso County where probabilities are around 50 percent. Kiowa and southern El Paso county have a 30-50 percent chance of seeing freezing temperatures though readings may not be quite cold enough for long enough to qualify for a growing season ending hard freeze. For the counties along and south of highway 50, odds are less likely as winds may keep the lower levels mixed, but some patchy frost with a brief dip to near freezing as winds decrease towards dawn will be possible early this morning and Frost Advisories still look on target. Across the San Luis Valley where some locations didn't quite make the 3 hours of 28 degrees or colder necessary for a growing season ending hard freeze yesterday, tonight will likely do it under clear skies and falling surface dew points. Otherwise, today will remain cool but sunny with temperatures similar to a degree or two cooler across the plains. The mountains will start to see a slow warm up as ridging aloft moves in out west. Winds will be relatively light, especially towards afternoon as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern plains. Another clear cold night expected with another round of freeze warnings likely. Winds will be lighter and the airmass drier, however there will also be a developing lee trough along the lee of the mountains which could kick up some westerly winds towards morning west of I-25 which could offset the potential cooling and freeze potential. Will maintain current set of Freeze Watches for now to let current round of Frost and Freeze highlights play out. It is possible that eastern Fremont and Huerfano counties could stay too mixed for a hard freeze tonight depending on the timing of the lee trough development. Will let later shifts and another suite of model runs come in before making upgrade decisions, but probability is high for an upgrade to Freeze Warnings for locations along and east of I-25. -KT && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Warmer conditions return over the weekend with ridging aloft transitioning to southwest flow ahead of a filling upper low entering southern CA and western AZ on Sunday. Saturday remains dry across southern CO but some moisture advects in for Sunday and Monday as this weakening upper level disturbance gradually lifts out across CO. Some isolated showers will be possible, mainly for the mountain areas with some spotty light rainfall possible. Snow levels will remain above 10000 feet during the day time hours when showers will be most prevalent. The next upper trough moves into the west coast Tuesday and Wednesday. This will increase southwest flow over CO bringing breezy and warm conditions with increasing showers across the Continental Divide. Best chances for showers will be across the eastern San Juans due to orographically favored southwest flow, however this will be warm system with snow levels remaining high. Upper low will translate through the western U.S. towards CO into late week, though details on timing, track and strength are highly variable at this point. Trend will be towards unsettled weather and a cool down perhaps next weekend as the system crosses the Rockies. -KT && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1104 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be very light and diurnally driven. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ083>089-093>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...HODANISH  943 FXUS61 KPHI 161750 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 150 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated key message 1, aviation and marine sections. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A strong cold front will cross the region late this afternoon and this evening with severe weather possible. 2. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front will cross the region late this afternoon and this evening with severe weather possible. Low pressure passing north of northern New England will drag a cold front through the region late this afternoon and evening. Clouds over the area are lifting and dissipating somewhat this afternoon, and it will warm up with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. With clouds breaking up and sunshine developing, gusty southwest winds are ushering a more humid airmass into the area with surface dew points in the mid and upper 60s. While instability values will be relatively low, generally SBCAPE values and MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg, but 06-km Bulk Shear will be upwards of 55-60 kt. SPC has the region in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening, with part of the region now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and the rest of the area likely to be added to an additional watch later on. Timing looks to be around 4pm to 6pm for the southern Poconos, far northwest New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley, 6pm to 8pm along the I-95 corridor, and from 7pm to 9 pm over Delmarva and southern New Jersey. After sunset, with loss of diurnal heating, the risk for severe weather will start to diminish. A tight pressure gradient then develops over the area tonight through Saturday as broad high pressure centered over the Southern Plains begins to build east. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop tonight and will continue through Saturday, with winds ranging from 15 to 25 mph with 30 to 40 mph gusts. Much cooler on Saturday with highs in the 50s and surface dew points falling towards the 30s. Some showers may linger tonight into Saturday morning especially across southern NJ and Delmarva as the front slows for a time, but they should clear out finally later in the day if not before. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. The primary trough axis looks to pass over the region by Saturday evening, with subtle height falls through Saturday night and into Sunday. Guidance is coming into better agreement that a portion of the trough will close off and linger offshore in the vicinity of the Carolinas, but high pressure will be settling into the region from the northwest. The end result should be mostly clear skies and diminishing winds through Saturday night. With the coldest airmass so far this season settling into the region, the primary question remaining for Saturday night's temperatures is how quickly winds diminish. Current indications are that it could remain a bit breezy through much of the evening, shortening the window of good radiational cooling conditions. Nevertheless, by dawn Sunday winds should be fairly light at least across the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and adjacent northern NJ. Given this, the current forecast calls for temperatures at or below freezing across these areas. For southeastern PA and central and southern portions of inland NJ, temperatures will likely still fall into the mid 30s. Upper 30s to low 40s are expected across much of Delmarva and coastal NJ. Regarding frost, the airmass that will be infiltrating the area will also be fairly dry, so good radiational cooling will be needed to get widespread frost. Given this, the potential for widespread frost appears limited at thistime to the Poconos and far northern NJ, with patchy frost still possible across the remainder of our eastern PA counties and inland NJ, especially the Pine Barrens. Frost and/or freeze headlines are still very likely to be needed for at least parts of the area Saturday night. Temperatures will begin slowly moderating Sunday into the early part of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...CIGs slowly lifting to VFR shortly if not already. A line of SHRA and TSRA will move fairly quickly across the terminals generally from 20Z to 22Z at KRDG/KABE, 22Z to 0Z at KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG, and from 23Z to 01Z at KMIV/KACY. SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...SHRA/TSRA taper off by 02Z, then mainly VFR, though showers may linger especially southern terminals. NW winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt. High confidence. Saturday...Mainly VFR, though showers and perhaps some MVFR cigs may linger southern terminals in the morning. NW winds 15 to 25 kt with 25 to 35 kt gusts. High confidence. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather. Sunday night through Monday night...Primarily VFR. There is a slight chance for a few rain showers for the near-coast terminals. Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters. for later today. A line of showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts will move across the waters this evening with the passage of a strong cold front. Winds turn north-northwest tonight and increase to 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts that will last through Saturday. 30 to 40 kt gusts are likely Saturday. Upgraded Gale Watch to Gale Warning Saturday. Outlook... Saturday night...Advisory conditions likely with gales likely for the outer marine zones. North winds 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt. Seas 4-7 feet. Sunday...Advisory conditions may linger for much of the day with north-northeast winds 15-25 kt and gusts to around 30 kt. Winds should begin to subside later in the day. Seas 4-7 feet, diminishing to 3-5 feet late. Sunday night through Tuesday...There is low confidence due to the potential influence of a possible developing surface low to the south of the region. Advisory conditions may re-develop and could potentially continue at times through Tuesday with elevated north-northeast winds and increasing seas. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105. NJ...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NJZ001-007>009. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430- 431. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>452. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ453>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ480>483-485. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/MPS/RCM AVIATION...Cooper/MPS/RCM MARINE...Cooper/MPS/RCM  835 FXUS62 KFFC 161747 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 147 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry conditions will persist for the next 7 days. - A mostly dry cold front moving through late Friday will bring crisp fall temperatures and gusty winds to the area to start off the weekend. - The first near freezing temperatures (<35F) of the season are possible for the higher mountains of northeast Georgia Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A robust trough swinging through the eastern CONUS will define the weather through the next few days. A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, however limited moisture (PWATS < 1.3) will limit precipitation chances. CAM guidance does indicate PoPs may be notably higher than the lower resolution global models are hinting at, so may see an uptrend in the PoPs as we get through the next couple forecast updates. For now, PoPs will remain generally less than 15% today. There will likely be at least a couple light showers somewhere in north GA this afternoon. The main concern with this front will be wind risk. Strong upper level support will rapidly tighten the pressure gradient over the southeast coastal states. Winds of 15 to 25 mph will be likely with gusts to 35 mph at times Friday night into Saturday morning. Gusts on the north GA ridgelines could reach 40 to 50 mph. With recent wind damage from last week's storm, trees and limbs could be more prone to wind damage. Significantly drier air will quickly follow the frontal passage. PWATs will fall from around 1.25" to <0.5" in about 24 hrs. Dry and breezy conditions will mean much cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid 30s and 40s (much more seasonable). Temperatures at the highest elevations in far northeast GA may actually approach frost conditions Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The long term will bring continued persistent dry weather with cooler temperatures moderating through next week. By Sunday, surface high pressure centered from New England into the Northeast will extend southwestward into the region. Meanwhile, midlevel ridging will begin to extend its grip eastward. Cool, breezy northeast winds will be enhanced by the pressure gradient between the aforementioned high and a developing low in the western Atlantic. Combined with temperatures remaining below normal (highs only reaching the low to mid 60s for most), Sunday will feel decidedly Fall-like. Though morning lows will remain in the 40s to low 50s through the week, daytime highs will begin a more noticeable warming trend by Monday. Highs will begin to nudge back toward the 70s for most areas by Monday with widespread 70s thereafter. All-in-all, next week will bring pleasant and seasonal conditions. As far as rainfall prospects are concerned, continued high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will keep things bone dry. In fact, ensembles continue to indicate likely dry weather extending toward the end of October. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conds this aftn with primarily SCT cigs at 4-6kft. SCT-BKN MVFR will encroach upon northern TAF sites by 02Z (perhaps earlier), with rapid improvements back to SKC exp by 13-14Z. Low- end chc for pcpn with frontal passage, captured by VCSH from 21-02Z. Cannot rule out -SHRA during that timeframe, but conf too low for TAF mention. Winds will become progressively breezier out of the NW. Initially 12G20KT, increasing to 18G30KT by 02-03Z. Exp slackening to 20-22KT gusts by 23Z tmrw. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence all elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 86 52 66 44 / 10 0 0 0 Atlanta 84 51 65 47 / 10 0 0 0 Blairsville 80 42 58 35 / 20 20 0 0 Cartersville 85 48 64 42 / 20 10 0 0 Columbus 86 52 70 49 / 0 10 0 0 Gainesville 83 50 64 44 / 10 0 0 0 Macon 88 54 70 48 / 0 10 0 0 Rome 85 48 63 41 / 10 40 0 0 Peachtree City 85 48 66 44 / 10 0 0 0 Vidalia 87 61 69 49 / 0 10 10 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...96  986 FXUS63 KARX 161732 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1232 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freeze Warning Late Tonight and early Saturday Morning. - Mainly dry through much of next week with slowly rising temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tonight High pressure, currently located over the Northern and Central Plains, will build quickly east across the area tonight. As this occurs, the surface pressure gradient will slacken. The combination of light winds and clear skies will result is strong radiative cooling. As typical with the NBM, it looked too warm in central Wisconsin so blended in some MOS. Low temperatures will range the mid-20s to lower 30s. There may be even a few locations in the lower 20s in central Wisconsin. Weekend The surface high pressure area will shift east into the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. As this occurs, the winds will become southerly and increase into the 10 to 20 mph. High temperatures will warm into the mid- and upper 50s on Saturday and into the lower and mid-60s on Sunday. Monday through Friday A 500 mb ridge will build across the region early in the week and it will keep the area dry and unseasonably warm through the remainder of the week. High temperatures will be mainly in the 60s through Wednesday and around 70s Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures in the 30s and 40s through Wednesday and 40s and 50s Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR ceilings have lifted through the late morning hours across the forecast hour, slightly earlier than previously forecasted. Therefore, have included a VFR TAF at both local sites (KLSE/KRST) for the 16.18Z period. Strong winds will remain the main impact until tonight as they become light and variable. Winds again increase through Saturday morning from the southwest. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ079- 086>088-094>096. IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ008>011- 018-019-029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...JAR  409 FXUS63 KGLD 161740 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1140 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freeze likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible in western areas. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1230 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Upper ridge begins to build in from the west today. The axis will be over the area on Saturday followed by southwest flow on Sunday as it continues to move east. At the surface, sprawling high pressure centered over the High Plains today will move south, with a lee trough developing in its place on Saturday which moves little through Sunday. No precipitation is expected through the period under the ridge. Winds will diminish today as the surface high builds in from the north. Return flow on Saturday combined with the deepening lee trough in Colorado will result in breezy south winds gusting up to 35 mph by the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible in northeast Colorado as temperatures there warm into the mid 70s and relative humidity drops into the teens. The same area will see low humidity Sunday afternoon but winds will be lighter and elevated fire weather conditions are more likely than critical. Temperatures will be cool once again today with highs in the mid 50s, but warm over the weekend into the 60s and 70s. A light freeze is likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible (40% probabilities) in northeast Colorado and west of Highway 27 in Kansas and Nebraska. Low temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Upper-level ridging is expected to persist across the Central Plains Monday through Wednesday. Confidence is high on southwest flow during this period. High pressure with a plethora of dry air aloft is likely. A shortwave trough, accompanied by weak low pressure at the surface, is forecasted to influence the County Warning Area (CWA) Monday into Tuesday. Dry air aloft is expected so nothing is to come from this feature other than a wind shift. Looking ahead, guidance foresees the next synoptic system making its way across the southwestern US Thursday. This negatively tilted trough should begin to influence the area then, keeping the 300-500mb winds southwesterly. Moisture advection is added into the mix with dewpoints anticipated to increase into the upper 50s for various locations. Strong low pressure and a stationary front are forecasted to form at the surface, providing rising motion needed for rain to develop. It will likely be quiet initially, precipitation wise, for a majority of the long-term period as dry air aloft dominates. PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) guidance displays less than 10% through Wednesday evening. Add Thursday into the mix and rainfall chances increase a bit. Confidence on widespread precip is on the low end right now as ensemble guidance attempts to project how the system evolves across the CONUS through Thursday. Nonetheless, a general 25-35% is forecasted for the time being. A warmup is expected for the region as temperatures bounce back, with help from high pressure, winds aloft, and plentiful sunshine. Highs in the upper 60s/low 70s Monday rise into the upper 70s/low 80s Tuesday, and should culminate into more consistent 80s throughout the CWA on Wednesday. Thursday should see a slight decrease in high temps but mid 70s to low 80s is still forecasted across the board. Overnight lows should sit in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday mornings then rise up to the 50s Wednesday and Thursday morning.Fire weather projects to be mild for this particular long-term forecast period. However, conditions will still have to be monitored thoroughly with relative humidity (RH) remaining low (20-30%), winds remaining gusty (up to 45 mph), and increasingly dry fuels expected across the CWA through next week. RH values are currently forecasted 20-25% Monday-Wednesday for portions of eastern Colorado. RH values elsewhere across the coverage area are projected at 30-50% through Thursday. Transitioning to surface winds, Monday's winds are anticipated to be light and variable (5-15 mph from the North) gusting up to 20 mph. Tuesday and Wednesday project slightly stronger winds (10-20 mph from the South) gusting up to 25 mph. Thursday is likely to observe the strongest southerly surface winds at around 15-30 mph, gusting up to 45 mph through some areas of eastern Colorado. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Conditions will be breezy and mostly out of the northwest with gusts around 25 knots possible through around sundown. Winds will remain light and variable until around 06Z when they become more out of the southwest. Light winds will remain mostly out of the southwest, but pick up towards the end of the TAF period with gusts up to 30 knots possible. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029- 041-042. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Rhoades  000 FXUS63 KICT 161751 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler air will arrive across the area today while lingering through the weekend with frost/freeze potential for much of the area Sat morning. - Moderating temperatures are expected this week with a chance for showers late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Much colder air was arriving over the area early this morning with strong H85 caa underway. Afternoon highs may struggle to climb out of the lower 50s in some areas. The highest wind speeds are expected through the morning hours while gradually subsiding as we move through the day as the sfc pressure gradient gradually diminishes. A ridge of high pressure at the sfc is progged to settle over the area tonight bringing light winds under mostly clear conditions. This will result in robust radiational cooling leading to areas of frost tonight into Saturday morning with the first freeze of the season for parts of central/south central KS. The freeze watch was expanded southward to include most of central and parts of south central KS where lows in the upper 20s/around 30 are anticipated. Southerly winds will return to central KS on Saturday allowing temperatures to quickly moderate with highs returning to the lower 60s while another day of upper 50s is anticipated across much of eastern Kansas. A stable and tranquil weather regime is anticipated through early next week as the upper level pattern transitions to a SW mid/upper flow regime early in the week with breezy southerly winds lingering. Seasonable temperatures will return on Monday with above average temperatures persisting through the end of the work week with highs around 80. Some low pops were maintained late in the week as some subtle shortwave troughs ridge over the mid/upper ridge over the southern CONUS, but confidence in widespread wetting precipitation remains fairly low at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Main aviation concern will be gusty winds for the next few hours. North winds will continue gusting in the 30-35kt range for the next few hours but will quickly decrease as sunset approaches. Area of low VFR cigs moved through the area and are still lingering across southeast KS. Confidence is high that they will stay at VFR levels before clearing out. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033- 047>051-067-082. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ052-053- 068>072-083-091>095-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...GC AVIATION...RBL  224 FXUS63 KLBF 161736 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Back to back cold mornings Friday and Saturday, when Freeze Warnings and Freeze Watches are in effect, should lead to an end to the growing season for all of west and north central Nebraska. - Dry and warmer conditions will lead to at least some elevated fire concerns on Saturday, favoring areas west of Highway 83. - Warmer and drier conditions return for Sunday and into next week, with highs returning to the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Early this morning, gusty north winds were prevalent across the area. This has led to a fairly quick influx of dry air which helped temperatures fall quickly across portions of western Nebraska. By 1am CDT, many locations were already in the 30s. The exception to this was areas beneath an increasing plume of low/mid-level stratus across the eastern Sandhills through north central Nebraska. While this will continue to expand across the area, do anticipate enough breaks for many locations to fall into the 30s with upper 20s further west in the Panhandle where Freeze Warnings are in effect through late morning Friday. Today/Tonight...north to northwest winds will remain blustery through at least daybreak on Friday, with gradual decreases by early afternoon if not midday. Within the post frontal airmass with approaching Canadian high pressure, expect a cooler day with afternoon highs in the lower 50s if not upper 40s for a few select locations. This will occur beneath sunny skies and as alluded to, with weakening winds falling to less than 20 mph by the afternoon and likely to less than 15 mph for most if not all locations by early evening. This will occur as central high pressure settles through the area with return southerly flow redeveloping. This casts some uncertainty regarding low temperatures Friday night/Saturday morning. Though timing of the central high pressure in the area favors near to prior to Midnight versus the early morning hours, the anticipated light winds beneath clear skies should allow for at least a few hours of favorable radiational cooling. Statistical guidance is quite bullish on the coldest morning temperatures of the season thus far, painting expansive 20s and even a few locations making a run at upper teens in our far west. This, following the anticipated cold from Friday morning, should effectively end the growing season in the local area. All non-warned zones from Friday morning have a Freeze Watch in place for Saturday morning. This headline appears on track for now so no changes were made to the inherited products. Should timing favor a quicker departure and thus quicker development of return southwesterly flow in our west, temperatures may need altered with subsequent forecasts so some uncertainty remains. Saturday/Saturday Night...upper ridging upstream will shuffle east towards the Continental Divide by early Saturday. Subsequent breakdown of this ridging should occur through the day Saturday as embedded troughing stalls near the Baja of California. Flow aloft will gradually back to southwesterly though this will occur too late to allow moisture to lift northeast out of the Desert Southwest. The result is warmer temperatures from approaching high pressure aloft and downsloping winds within a dry airmass. In fact, some fire weather concerns appear probable for west of Highway 83. While low humidity is likely to be observed, how much wind overlap materializes remains in question. Flow aloft appears fairly weak, particularly at h7, which will likely limit mixing heights as a result. Though h85 flow appears relatively strong through the day, the speed max at this level should focus over Highway 83 whereas the lowest humidity should be bottled up in the Panhandle. HREF joint probabilities show a high likelihood (80%+) of marginal fire conditions (< 35% RH, > 10 mph sustained winds) but these largely fall off to 50-60% for seeing near-critical (< 20% RH, > 15 mph sustained winds). The one area to watch will be Zones 204/210 and western Zones 206/208. Raw output from the high resolution ARW suggests this is a threat worth monitoring in the coming days. Afternoon highs should range from middle 70s west to low 60s east. Given proximity to the speed max off the surface, believe gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range are possible. The gustier winds should persist into the overnight hours and this will keep overnight lows on the milder side. Though some 30s appear possible for southwest Nebraska into the southern Panhandle, areas of northern and north central Nebraska should hold into the low to middle 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Quieter conditions are expected as we head into Sunday, with upper ridging expected to amplify across the central CONUS as we head into early next week. In fact, the upper pattern begins to transition towards an omega block pattern, with the central US positioned between a cutoff low just off the coast of the eastern US and a deep upper low over the southwestern US. This leaves the area under the influence of the aforementioned upper ridging through the middle of next week, and lead to high temperatures moderating back into the 70s for all by Tuesday (70s expected Sat/Sun across western NE). Locations across southwest Nebraska will make a run at the lower 80s by midweek. This will also coincide with drier conditions, though fire concerns look to remain low due to surface dewpoints increasing back into the lower 50s. This will keep minimum afternoon humidity elevated in the 30-40% range, along with winds generally remaining below 20 miles per hour each day. In all, this points to a return of pleasant fall weather, with mostly sunny, dry, and mild conditions returning through the middle of next week. By late week, the western US upper low will begin to eject east across the Rockies by late Friday, bringing a return of southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, low pressure will begin to eject across the Dakotas by Friday evening, and this drags a cold front into the area sometime Saturday. This looks to bring a return of cooler highs and some threat for precipitation as we head into next weekend, and this will need to be monitored going forward. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Ceilings from 2500FT AGL to 3500FT AGL have become scattered early this afternoon, with SKC across all of western and north central NE after 22Z. Northwest winds will remain 12KT or less at the KVTN and KLBF terminals this afternoon, then light and variable winds this evening becoming light south. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for NEZ005>010-024>029-036>038-059-070-071. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Roberg  073 FXUS64 KHUN 161754 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1045 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A cold front will track southeastward across the TN Valley today, bringing a low chance of rain to the region (that will continue through early Saturday morning). - Northerly winds of 10-15 MPH (with gusts up to 20-30 MPH) will occur this afternoon and again on Saturday. - Patchy frost may occur early Sunday morning in a few wind- sheltered locations across southern TN and northeast AL. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Over the course of the near term period, a strong mid-level high (centered off the southeastern Atlantic Coast) will retreat eastward as an amplifying northern stream shortwave trough digs from the Upper MS Valley into the central/southern Appalachians. In response to this, a deepening area of low pressure at the surface will advance east-northeastward across southern QC/northern New England and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence by the end of the period. A cold front extending southwestward from the low will make steady southeastward progression across the local forecast area today, and after entering northwest AL ~14Z should exit our southeastern counties by ~22Z. In spite of limited instability (with ensemble MUCAPE less than 100 J/kg), sufficient boundary layer moisture should exist in the vicinity of the frontal confluence axis for the development of a thin line of low-topped convective showers as the front progresses across the region. As mid-level WSW flow increases to 70-80 knots and synoptic scale ascent strengthens this afternoon and evening downstream from the approaching 500-mb wave, one or more bands of light stratiform rain may also evolve within the postfrontal airmass, and we have made a minor increase in POPs region-wide within the 21-3Z timeframe to account for this scenario. In the wake of the cold front, surface winds will veer sharply to NNW and strengthen, with sustained speeds of 10-15 MPH and gusts up to 20-25 MPH (perhaps 25-30 MPH in a few locations) anticipated. This will quickly begin to advect a cooler/drier mixture of Canadian and modified North Pacific air into the region, with daily max temperatures dependent of timing of frontal passage (and related CAA/increase in cloud cover). Although lingering light rain this evening (in the eastern portion of the CWFA) will likely end by 3Z, favorably oriented low-level streamlines may continue to generate a few oragraphically-induced showers across the northeastern half of the region through sunrise tomorrow. Due to the combination of widespread stratus clouds and a moderate NNW wind, overnight lows will generally be in the m-u 40s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 An amplifying northern stream shortwave trough (positioned to the immediate northeast of the local forecast area at the beginning of the period) is predicted to evolve into a weak low that will drift southeastward to the NC Coast by Sunday night as it becomes detached from the polar westerlies. As a low-amplitude mid-level ridge builds northeastward into the region (in the wake of this feature), strong NNW flow aloft will weaken considerably from Saturday night-Sunday night, and due to the dry nature of the airmass and absence of atmospheric lift, we expect dry conditions to prevail (in the wake of any lingering wrap-around showers early Saturday morning). In the low-levels, a surface high will migrate northeastward from the southern High Plains into the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday (and into the northern Mid-Atlantic States Saturday night). This configuration will result in NNE winds (of similar magnitude to today) on Saturday, with flow diminishing and veering to ENE Saturday night. Regardless of sunny skies, afternoon highs tomorrow will range from the m-u 50s in elevated terrain to the l-m 60s in the valley. This will be followed by optimal conditions for radiational cooling on Saturday night, with lows in the u30s-l40s (away from large water sources). If winds become calm (which is unlikely based on the anticipated pressure gradient), forecast soundings suggest that dewpoint depressions will be sufficiently narrow to support the development of patchy frost in a few wind-sheltered locations across southern TN/northeast AL (where temps may fall into the mid 30s). As the surface high shifts further northeastward into the northwestern Atlantic on Sunday/Sunday night, a lingering surface ridge axis will maintain a light easterly-calm wind across the region. Afternoon temperatures will rise a few degrees into the m-u 60s, with overnight lows Monday morning once again in the m30s-l40s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will remain dominant during the long term period as upper ridging slowly pushes east during the middle of the week. This will result in dry weather and gradually warmer temperatures with highs climbing back into the 70s on Monday then into the 80s on Thursday. We should see plenty of sunshine through the week and clear skies at night. While temperatures will rise back above seasonal norms, it will feel much more like fall compared to the record breaking heat we have seen recently. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across the TN Valley this aftn, with both terminals now in the wake of this feature. Sufficient lift within the postfrontal airmass will exist to support widespread low stratus clouds (with MVFR ceilings) for much of the TAF period, although conditions should begin to rapidly improve btwn 16-18Z. Brief periods of lgt stratiform RA may also occur btwn 19-1Z/MSL and 21-3Z/HSV, perhaps resulting in lower ceilings and minor vsby reductions. Sfc winds will remain from the NNW at 13G23 kts thru late this aftn, before both sustained speeds and gusts subside overnight. Winds will veer to NNE and increase to 13G23 kts once again late in the period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...70/DD LONG TERM...25 AVIATION...70/DD