915 FXUS63 KLOT 161833 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 133 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and seasonably chilly conditions persist this afternoon with some scattered showers. - East of Gary, lake enhanced showers this afternoon will transition to lake effect showers tonight with a slight chance of a thunderstorm near the shore late this afternoon/early this evening. Wind gusts to 45 mph possible near the northwest Indiana lakefront this afternoon/early evening. - Coldest night of the season expected tonight with lows near/just below freezing across interior portions of northern IL. - Dry and mild weather returns Sunday and persists next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A seasonably strong and expansive high-pressure system over the Great Plains continues to build eastward into the Midwest this afternoon, following a surface low moving into New England. Strong northerly winds between these systems are pushing the season's coldest airmass southward into the area, resulting in a cloudy, chilly, and breezy day across the region. A few widely scattered showers remain possible across northern Illinois through sunset as an upper-level trough moves overhead. However, shower activity will primarily concentrate over Lake Michigan late this afternoon and evening as lake-effect parameters rapidly improve. This should lead to focused lake-effect showers—and potentially a few thunderstorms—shifting inland from southern Lake Michigan into northwestern Indiana this evening. Scattered lake effect showers may linger after midnight, but they are expected to diminish toward Saturday morning as inversion heights lower and lake-effect parameters weaken following the passage of the upper-level trough. Outside of lake-effect precipitation and cloud cover in northwestern Indiana, skies will clear and winds will gradually subside this evening. This will be especially true across interior portions of northern Illinois, where the coldest temperatures of the season are forecast tonight. The current forecast remains on track for a couple of hours of near-freezing temperatures early Saturday morning, most notably across far northern Illinois from the Fox Valley westward. Consequently, no changes were made to the frost and freeze headlines in effect for interior northern Illinois late tonight. Following a chilly and frosty start on Saturday, full sunshine and light winds are forecast as the surface high moves directly over the region. The abundant sunshine will help temperatures rebound into the upper 50s during the afternoon. Another chilly night will follow Saturday night as temperatures drop back into the 30s. Given the light winds, additional frosty conditions are possible, particularly east of I-55 where the lightest winds are expected. We will continue to monitor this period for potential frost headlines. The cold snap will be short-lived as conditions transition back to a mild and dry autumn pattern. High temperatures are forecast to return to the 60s on Sunday and Monday, before warming into the 70s for the remainder of next week with little to no chance of rain. KJB && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Key concerns for the 18Z TAF period: * Scattered light showers this afternoon * MVFR cigs over Chicagoland returning to VFR this afternoon * At GYY, periods of lake-effect rain expected late this afternoon and again late tonight into early Saturday Scattered coverage of light rain is dropping into northern IL from the north early this afternoon. Periods of light rain will be possible through the rest of the afternoon. MVFR cigs over the region have recently scattered out over RFD with more VFR found upstream. Chicagoland sites are expected to return to VFR by mid- afternoon. At GYY, a band of lake-effect rain showers will target far northwest IN late this afternoon into early evening. Periods of light to moderate rain with MVFR vsby reductions are anticipated. A second push is expected after midnight and may last into early Saturday. Meanwhile, NW winds will trend toward NNW through the afternoon while regular gusts are expected to get up to near 30 kt for the middle and late afternoon. NNW winds will remain gusty through much of the night before easing for Saturday. Doom && .MARINE... Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Northerly gales to 40kt are forecast this afternoon and evening, with strongest gusts to 40kt+ likely within the lake enhanced convergence band and with more robust lake effect showers over the Indiana waters east of Gary. In addition to an isolated thunderstorm or two late this afternoon, conditions are expected to become favorable for waterspouts late this afternoon into this evening. Waterspout risk is expected to diminish late this evening as inversion heights lower. Lake effect shower intensity and coverage will decrease overnight also in response to the decreasing inversion heights. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ003- ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012. Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ006- ILZ019-ILZ020. IN...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ002. LM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  169 FXUS65 KTFX 161811 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1211 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - It will warm up to well-above seasonal averages today and Saturday. - It will be windy across the Rocky Mountain Front today and across North-central Montana on Saturday. - It will be mostly dry through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 503 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Today an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This brings warm temperatures and dry weather to the area today. Today temperatures will be well above seasonal averages. Today the pressure gradient increases which will bring windy conditons primarily just to the Rocky Mountain Front. On Saturday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and dry temperatures to the area on Saturday. On Saturday the low-level and mid-level winds increase combined with the upper-level ridge flattening. This will bring windy conditions to North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I- 15. On Sunday there will be zonal flow (west-east) over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures with mostly dry weather. On Monday an upper-level ridge briefly builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up slightly with mostly dry weather. On Tuesday the upper-level ridge remains over Montana this will keep warm and dry weather for North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday there will be a series of weak troughs that pass through Montana. This will keep warm and mostly dry weather for North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Wednesday and Thursday. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: On Saturday there is a 40 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the plains west of I-15. On Saturday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 50 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 70 mph or greater. Along the higher peaks of the Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 70% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater. Additionally the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) has a standardized anomaly greater than 3 for 700 mb winds Saturday afternoon across the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. Models continue to show in excess of 60 to 70 kt 700 mb winds over the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15 Saturday afternoon and evening. As a result a High Wind Watch remains in effect for the plains west of I-15 and the Rocky Mountain Front from 9AM Saturday through 12AM Sunday. On Saturday across the rest of North-central Montana there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater. For winds across the Hi-Line east of I-15 there is currently a low chance to reach and/or exceed high wind criteria but if the strong 700 mb winds move east faster than models are currently depicting a High Wind Watch could be needed for the Hi- Line east of I-15. -IG && .AVIATION... 16/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty south/southwesterly winds are expected to continue at KGTF through the rest of the afternoon before tapering off slightly overnight and picking up again Saturday morning as a broader spread of gusty winds fills in across North-Central and Central Montana as well as the Madison Valley (KEKS). The strongest winds will be along the Rocky Mountain Front with gusts up to 55kts possible at KCTB and up to 70kts right along the mountains. Further across the Hi-Line, including KHVR, surface winds will be gustybut a shallow inversion is expected to keep the high winds just above the surface which may lead to instances of LLWS through Saturday evening. Should these stronger winds be able to mix down to the surface, expect gusty winds up to 50kts at KHVR. But currently the probability of occurrence is at 20%. -thor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 68 45 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 69 43 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 63 33 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 61 29 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 57 20 58 21 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 61 30 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 68 41 76 37 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 69 44 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  580 FXUS66 KHNX 161820 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1120 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Warm conditions are expected through the weekend with temperatures across the area likely about 5-10 degrees above normal. 2. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through tonight for the Sierra Nevada mountains above 4000 feet for high winds and low relative humidity values. 3. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Mojave Desert through tonight with gusts up to 60 mph. 4. A pattern change remains likely by early next week with temperatures cooling quickly to well below average for this time of year, and a chance of rainfall throughout the area (low confidence). && .DISCUSSION... Fall like conditions have been in place for the past week or so after a very hot start to the month of October. Temperatures however will be well above average for the next few days due to the influence of a ridge of a high pressure over our area. The probability of temperatures above 90 degrees today is around 25-40% across most of the Central Valley today, with higher localized probabilities in the southern Valley (75-90%). Tomorrow looks to be the hottest day of the near future with the probability of temperatures above 90 degrees at around 50-65% through most of the Valley, with the southern Valley at around 80-95%. Temperatures will begin to cool by Sunday with the probability of exceeding 90 degrees only at around 35-50%. A low pressure system is currently south of our area with an "omega block" pattern, high pressure to our north and low pressure to our south, influencing our area. This pattern has led to higher localized easterly wind gusts, especially along the mountain slopes and desert. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the Sierra Nevada mountains above 4000 feet through 10 pm tonight. There are localized areas along higher elevations that have had observed wind gusts around 45-60 mph, especially north of Tehachapi and south of the Sequoia National Forest. In addition, low relative humidity values (RHs) remain in place for the same area mentioned previously (below 25%). A Wind Advisory also remains in effect for the Mojave Desert through the rest of today. The probability of wind gusts exceeding 35 mph will be around 65-80% through much of the desert today before winds gusts begin to alleviate overnight. The low pressure system currently south of our region will continue to move southwest, leading to a significant decrease in wind gusts by this weekend. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory will expire tonight. The vast majority of ensemble runs have reached a consensus that there will be a change in the overall weather pattern by early next week with a deep trough moving into our area off the Pacific Coast. Temperatures will therefore cool significantly after Sunday. The probability of temperatures exceeding 80 degrees will be at around 50-65% in the northern Valley and 80-95% in the southern Valley on Monday of next week. By Tuesday, temperatures will cool significantly with only about a 30-45% chance of temperatures exceeding 75 degrees through much of the Valley. In addition, wind gusts along the Sierra Crest and Mojave Desert slopes will increase by early next week and remain strong through the middle of next week. The probability of wind gusts above 35 mph will be at around 50-65% on Monday and Tuesday. The potential closed low pressure system moving into our area could lead to precipitation by mid-week next week throughout the entire area. However, the exact amounts of precipitation remain difficult to determine currently given that this system remains several days out. If rainfall does impact the area, the majority of rainfall that does fall would most likely be on Wednesday and Thursday of next week. In addition, along the Sierra Crest snowfall will be likely around the same timeframe. However, there is a wide range in snowfall totals along higher elevations and the exact details with regards to snowfall totals remain nebulous. With temperatures cooling significantly by early next week the CPC has us in a 33-50% chance for below normal temperatures in the 6-10 day outlook. In terms of precipitation, the CPC has about a 50-70% chance of above average precipitation over the next 6-10 days, and about average precipitation over the next 8-14 days. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will remain in place through Bakersfield throughout the day today with winds shifting from out of the southeast to out of the northeast, and gusts exceeding 20 mph through late this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through tonight for areas above 4,000 feet. Easterly wind gusts exceeding 40 mph were recently observed north of Tehachapi and south of the Sequoia National Forest. Low relative humidity values below 25% remain in place in this area as well. Minimum relative humidity values will likely remain around 15-25% today with dry conditions continuing into this weekend. However, wind gusts will likely decrease substantially by tonight reducing the threat for fire spread. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ337>339. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ592>597. && $$ public...MC aviation....Moore weather.gov/hanford  894 FXUS64 KHUN 161854 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 154 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1045 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A cold front will track southeastward across the TN Valley today, bringing a low chance of rain to the region (that will continue through early Saturday morning). - Northerly winds of 10-15 MPH (with gusts up to 20-30 MPH) will occur this afternoon and again on Saturday. - Patchy frost may occur early Sunday morning in a few wind- sheltered locations across southern TN and northeast AL. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 There have been no changes to near term forecast reasoning since the update earlier this morning. A cold front continues to progress quickly southeastward across the TN Valley early this afternoon, and should exit our CWFA by 22Z (if not sooner). Widespread low stratus clouds and NNW winds of 10-15 MPH (with gusts up to 20-30 MPH) will persist in the wake of the cold, although both sustained speeds and gusts should diminish a bit overnight. Conditions still appear favorable for the development of pockets of light stratiform from late this afternoon through this evening, and we will make no changes to POPs at this time (especially as a few showers may continue to impact the northeastern corner of the CWFA through early tomorrow morning). Overnight lows appear on track to reach the m-u 40s. Previous Discussion: Over the course of the near term period, a strong mid-level high (centered off the southeastern Atlantic Coast) will retreat eastward as an amplifying northern stream shortwave trough digs from the Upper MS Valley into the central/southern Appalachians. In response to this, a deepening area of low pressure at the surface will advance east-northeastward across southern QC/northern New England and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence by the end of the period. A cold front extending southwestward from the low will make steady southeastward progression across the local forecast area today, and after entering northwest AL ~14Z should exit our southeastern counties by ~22Z. In spite of limited instability (with ensemble MUCAPE less than 100 J/kg), sufficient boundary layer moisture should exist in the vicinity of the frontal confluence axis for the development of a thin line of low-topped convective showers as the front progresses across the region. As mid-level WSW flow increases to 70-80 knots and synoptic scale ascent strengthens this afternoon and evening downstream from the approaching 500-mb wave, one or more bands of light stratiform rain may also evolve within the postfrontal airmass, and we have made a minor increase in POPs region-wide within the 21-3Z timeframe to account for this scenario. In the wake of the cold front, surface winds will veer sharply to NNW and strengthen, with sustained speeds of 10-15 MPH and gusts up to 20-25 MPH (perhaps 25-30 MPH in a few locations) anticipated. This will quickly begin to advect a cooler/drier mixture of Canadian and modified North Pacific air into the region, with daily max temperatures dependent of timing of frontal passage (and related CAA/increase in cloud cover). Although lingering light rain this evening (in the eastern portion of the CWFA) will likely end by 3Z, favorably oriented low-level streamlines may continue to generate a few oragraphically-induced showers across the northeastern half of the region through sunrise tomorrow. Due to the combination of widespread stratus clouds and a moderate NNW wind, overnight lows will generally be in the m-u 40s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 An amplifying northern stream shortwave trough (positioned to the immediate northeast of the local forecast area at the beginning of the period) is predicted to evolve into a weak low that will drift southeastward to the NC Coast by Sunday night as it becomes detached from the polar westerlies. As a low-amplitude mid-level ridge builds northeastward into the region (in the wake of this feature), strong NNW flow aloft will weaken considerably from Saturday night-Sunday night, and due to the dry nature of the airmass and absence of atmospheric lift, we expect dry conditions to prevail (in the wake of any lingering wrap-around showers early Saturday morning). In the low-levels, a surface high will migrate northeastward from the southern High Plains into the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday (and into the northern Mid-Atlantic States Saturday night). This configuration will result in NNE winds (of similar magnitude to today) on Saturday, with flow diminishing and veering to ENE Saturday night. Regardless of sunny skies, afternoon highs tomorrow will range from the m-u 50s in elevated terrain to the l-m 60s in the valley. This will be followed by optimal conditions for radiational cooling on Saturday night, with lows in the u30s-l40s (away from large water sources). If winds become calm (which is unlikely based on the anticipated pressure gradient), forecast soundings suggest that dewpoint depressions will be sufficiently narrow to support the development of patchy frost in a few wind-sheltered locations across southern TN/northeast AL (where temps may fall into the mid 30s). As the surface high shifts further northeastward into the northwestern Atlantic on Sunday/Sunday night, a lingering surface ridge axis will maintain a light easterly-calm wind across the region. Afternoon temperatures will rise a few degrees into the m-u 60s, with overnight lows Monday morning once again in the m30s-l40s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will remain dominant during the long term period as upper ridging slowly pushes east during the middle of the week. This will result in dry weather and gradually warmer temperatures with highs climbing back into the 70s on Monday then into the 80s on Thursday. We should see plenty of sunshine through the week and clear skies at night. While temperatures will rise back above seasonal norms, it will feel much more like fall compared to the record breaking heat we have seen recently. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across the TN Valley this aftn, with both terminals now in the wake of this feature. Sufficient lift within the postfrontal airmass will exist to support widespread low stratus clouds (with MVFR ceilings) for much of the TAF period, although conditions should begin to rapidly improve btwn 16-18Z. Brief periods of lgt stratiform RA may also occur btwn 19-1Z/MSL and 21-3Z/HSV, perhaps resulting in lower ceilings and minor vsby reductions. Sfc winds will remain from the NNW at 13G23 kts thru late this aftn, before both sustained speeds and gusts subside overnight. Winds will veer to NNE and increase to 13G23 kts once again late in the period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...70/DD LONG TERM...25 AVIATION...70/DD  891 FXUS61 KBTV 161824 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 224 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 221 PM EDT Friday... The wind advisory has been cancelled. Winds will remain gusty tonight and on Saturday but will remain below advisory threshold. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 221 PM EDT Friday... 1. Gusty winds to continue through Saturday with much cooler temperatures on the way. First round of snowfall expected for the high peaks tonight. 2. Next week continues to trend very quiet as high pressure builds in across the area with temperatures near normal and high confidence in an extended dry period of weather. && .DISCUSSION... As of 221 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1: We are currently in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front with temperatures warming into the mid 50s to lower 60s. As of 1 PM, the approaching cold front was located in far western New York and will continue to quickly push east this afternoon and evening. A sharp thermal gradient will allow for temperatures to plummet quickly in the wake of the cold front with an abrupt wind direction shift from the south to the northwest. With increasing moisture in the warm sector, we should see rain showers continue into the evening ahead of the front but rainfall amounts don't look to be anything impressive at this time. As rainfall taper off in the wake of the cold front, the northwesterly flow regime will support upslope rain and/or snow showers across the western slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Our current thinking is that locations above 2000 ft may be able to accumulate up to an inch of snow while a few flurries could be seen as low as 1500 ft. Overall impacts will be minimal and likely confined to grassy surfaces as the ground temperature will remain above freezing through the period of possible snow. Saturday will be quite the transition to a more winter-like pattern as temperatures will struggle to climb into the 40s while winds remain gusty in the 20 to 30 mph range. This will lead to wind chills in the 20s and 30s throughout the day with wind chills as low as the single digits above and below zero across the high peaks. If you plan to be outdoors tomorrow please dress for the weather as this change in weather pattern may be surprising to many! Saturday night will be the coldest night as winds finally abate and skies clear with lows falling into the 20s to near 30 degrees with the warmest values in and around Lake Champlain. A rebound to more seasonal normal temperatures is expected for Sunday with highs warming into the 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2: A rex block will begin to develop for the Northeast as surface high pressure builds in from the west on Monday with a developing coastal low across the southeast. High pressure will keep any moisture well to our south through the extended period, with high confidence in an extended dry period. That said, some high clouds and cirrus clouds will be possible early next week, especially in southern Vermont. With the extended period of dry weather anticipated, and trees losing leaves, fire weather concerns may increase towards the latter portion of next week as we dry out from this weeks rains early next week. Winds look to be on the weak side with light and terrain driven flow under high pressure, which should be beneficial to lowering fire weather concerns. Temperatures will return to normal levels by early next week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, and overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...The first 6-8 hours will be the most complex period of this TAF period, with general improvements towards more stable and calm conditions by tomorrow. A cold front is slowly progressing from west to east with winds already at MSS from the west. Periods of high IFR to low MVFR will continue ahead of the front for terrain TAF sites, not including BTV/PBG, with TEMPO IFR groups for MPV for the next hour. As the boundary moves through each site between now and 00Z, ceilings may briefly reduce towards IFR with some intermittent IFR vis reductions, but conditions are expected to trend towards VFR thereafter. Have used TEMPO and PROB30 groups to denote where confidence is highest in terminal reductions associated with the boundary. SLK will likely see IFR cigs continue through 04Z before northwest flow helps scour out the low level clouds. Winds will also shift from the south to the west around 20-22Z with a general weakening of wind gusts during the wind shift. Lingering LLWS for all terminals will decrease with the passage of the front at each terminal. As winds become more west to northwest overnight tonight, mixing will continue with gusts returning to around 20-25 kts for most terminals, especially at BTV/PBG. Closer to sunrise tomorrow, some blocked flow will return to BTV with some MVFR cigs possible. Elsewhere scattered to broken ceilings 2500-3500ft agl will linger behind the cold front before trending VFR to 4000-5000ft agl by the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for much of Lake Champlain through Saturday afternoon. Although the strongest winds have ended, we will continue to see 15 to 30 knot winds across the lake through Saturday. Winds are from the south at the moment but will switch to the north after sunset following the passage of a cold front. Winds may briefly weaken below 25 knots as the wind shift occurs but winds are expected to ramp back up during the overnight hours. Wave have subsided to 2 to 4 feet and will likely subside further as the wind shift occurs but waves in the 2 to 4 ft range will likely develop again on Saturday with the persistent northerly winds. && .CLIMATE... Daily low maximum temperatures will likely be broken on Saturday. Current records at some climate sites in our region are as follows: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: October 17: KBTV: 42/1970 KPBG: 44/2015 KSLK: 36/1970 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay DISCUSSION...Danzig/Clay AVIATION...Danzig MARINE...Clay CLIMATE...NWS BTV  624 FXUS63 KDVN 161845 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 145 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning continues late tonight through 9 AM Saturday. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area tonight. Frost is possible again Saturday night but not as widespread. - Winds through 1 PM have been lower than forecast, but a peak is still expected this afternoon, reaching 35 to 40 mph on gusts. - A warm-up next week will send temperatures back above normal for late October.&& .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong positively tilted upper wave is moving through the Upper Midwest, and positioned over our CWA as of Noon, and this is progressing quickly to the south and east. Cold air aloft has allowed for showers to be scattered through the area since early this morning, and the last of these moving through this afternoon are a bit stronger, with over 40 DBZ indicating downpours, and even possibly a bit of really small hail possible. However, the footprint of those heavy showers remains very very small. After 4 PM, this wave should be east of the region, with downward motion behind it helping scour out the cloud cover as we head into early evening. Frost and Freezing temperatures are both possible tonight, and no changes are anticipated to the ongoing headlines. Our forecast lows of 30 to 35 remain in the middle of a very tight ensemble distribution, and I see little potential to vary greatly from that. Sadly, this is not expected to kill the bugs, but could damage sensitive plants. With the loss of cloud cover, Saturday should be a much more pleasant day, though still dealing with a rather cold air mass. Highs in the mid to upper 50s are closer to the upper end of guidance values, but with the dry air in place, we should see the warmer end of guidance verify. Saturday night, light south winds will increase through the night, helping keep lows from getting too cold. Lows in the mid 30s support patchy frost in valley locations, but most spots will not see any impact. Sunday, the high pressure center will be near the Ohio Valley, with southwest/south winds and sunshine over our area. Lower 60s north, to upper 60s south are forecast, again supported by close guidance clustering. Winds do not appear much above 15 mph in the afternoon, so fire danger does not appear too high. Thankfully, in the days ahead, winds are forecast to remain lighter than Sunday, keeping fire danger at low end values. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Sunday night through Thursday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence on temperatures trending above normal. Sunday night and continuing through the week a general warm- up will be seen with temperatures trending above normal for late October. Quiet weather is expected, with winds remaining below 15 mph most days, and highs remaining in the 70s, with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Widespread MVFR cigs of 1000 to 2500 ft will continue this afternoon, as an upper low moves through the area, with gusty north/northwest surface winds of 15 to 25 kts. Some afternoon gusts in northeast Iowa may reach 35 kts for brief times. Right around sunset tonight, the system will move east of the region, and skies will clear out, with winds decreasing under 10 kts. This will be a quiet, VFR, chilly night and morning ahead into Saturday. This afternoon, a few lingering brief light showers remain possible, with visibility generally remaining above 6 miles. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076-077-087. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ078-088- 089-098-099. IL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ016>018- 024>026-034-035. MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ009-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Ervin  775 FXUS63 KJKL 161808 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 208 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers will remain around the area through tonight. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a high risk for frost area-wide on Saturday night into Sunday morning. - Frost is also anticipated Sunday night into Monday morning for many valley locations. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1057 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 A cold front has entered western portions of the forecast area as of 11 AM EDT. Temperatures remain mild ahead of the boundary, with cooler air upstream. Wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range have been occurring along and just behind the front in portions of western and central KY and have opted to increase wind gusts for the remainder of the day based on these trends. Areas of showers and sprinkles were present mainly behind the boundary. Trends on wind gusts will continue to be monitored. Additional updates were made to temperatures and sky based on recent observation and satellite trends. UPDATE Issued at 735 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 425 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 08Z sfc analysis shows a warm front now east of the state while a distinct and well defined cold front is approaching from the west. This has left mostly clear skies around eastern Kentucky as the showers have moved off to the east with the warm front. With plenty of ground moisture around, and patches of clearing in the skies, areas of fog have developed in the valleys this night and become locally dense. Currently, temperatures are quite mild and running in the low to mid 70s for much of the area with some mid to upper 60s noted in a few valley locations. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds around 5 mph, dewpoints are rather moist and generally in the low to mid 60s. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the first full-latitude trough of the season swinging out of the Upper Midwest and into the Ohio Valley this morning. This feature steadily works into Kentucky today while starting to close off overhead later this evening and tonight. A core of energy accompanies the southern extent of the trough as it, and its sharp 5h height falls, move through by 06Z Saturday. Benign northwest flow then follows for the rest of the period. Given the very small model spread, most of the forecast grids came from unadjusted NBM data this morning. However, did incorporate the latest CAMs guidance into the NBM PoPs as the front moves through. With CAA for the bulk of the period did not see much of an opportunity to improve on the temps or dewpoints. Sensible weather will feature a very changeable day on account of the front moving through early in the day from northwest to southeast accompanied by scattered to numerous showers. Even after the front passes and winds switch more northwesterly, a few showers will linger and only slowly clear out west to east. Temperatures peak early today before falling post-frontal leading to a chilly end of the afternoon and evening amid those lingering showers. There will be an upslope component to the post frontal showers that hold on into the night before finally clearing to the east early Saturday. With this new air mass, temperatures will be much cooler during the day, Saturday, despite plenty of returning sunshine. In fact, many places will see temperatures 20 or so degrees colder Saturday afternoon compared to this afternoon. This, along with strong high pressure moving over the area will set the stage for a very chilly night with frost on tap and even some spots expected to hit freezing by dawn Sunday. A frost advisory will likely be needed. The main changes to the NBM starting point were to include details from the latest CAMs consensus into the PoPs through tonight. Temperatures and dewpoints were left nearly unchanged. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 440 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 The extended portion of the forecast appears to be on track for the significant frost concerns both Saturday and Sunday nights on account of ridging aloft and strong sfc high pressure in place. This pattern will keep the weather rather quiet for the upcoming week with gradual moderation in temperatures each day following a chilly end to the weekend. The previous long term discussion follows: The central theme of the long term forecast period is the advection of a cooler and drier airmass into Eastern Kentucky on Saturday. In the wake of Friday's FROPA, a building surface anticyclone will yield northerly and then east-northeasterly surface winds across the forecast area this weekend. Combined with northwesterly flow around the backside of the mean troughing aloft, this shift will end the production of any lingering upslope rain showers by midday Saturday. A modified continental polar airmass moves into the region in its wake, and temperatures will likely struggle to get much warmer than the mid 50s in Eastern Kentucky on Saturday afternoon. Increasingly efficient diurnal mixing could lead to breezy wind gusts up to 20mph, but it should also help to scatter out the remaining clouds by Saturday evening. This, in turn, sets the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight, and the area appears primed for the first significant frost of the season by Sunday morning. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions like light winds and mostly clear skies. The aforementioned postfrontal surface high moves overhead on Saturday night, leading to a lighter gradient winds and further reinforcing the notion that the area will see clear skies on Saturday night. The NBM ensemble data continues to resolve a 60-90% chance for minimum temperatures to fall below that 36 degree criterion, and frost headlines are likely to be issued soon. With that being said, the magnitude of the frost will likely be somewhat elevation-dependent. Confidence in widespread frost is greatest in the most sheltered and shaded valley locales, which could make a run at the 32 degree mark. There remains a 20-40% chance within the ensemble data for temperatures to reach the freezing point in the coldest hollows. A freeze is not the most likely forecast solution in our CWA, but given that some of the station-specific MOS guidance explicitly drops temperatures to near 30, trends in the incoming higher-resolution forecast guidance will need to be monitored. With that being said, most of the broader and more populated valley locales across our CWA will experience at least areas of frost on Saturday night. The frost will be patchier atop ridges and in places closer to the mainstem rivers and lakes. Bodies of water intrinsically hold onto heat for longer, and it remains plausible for there to be some patchy river valley fog in their immediate vicinity. This fog would counteract frost formation, so confidence in frost is lowest in places immediately next to the Kentucky, Cumberland, Licking, and Levisa/Tug Fork Rivers. Agricultural interests and recreational gardeners should be prepared to take protective actions for any sensitive plants in this time frame, and they are encouraged to continue monitoring for forecast updates and potential product issuances. While Saturday and Saturday night remain the coldest part of the forecast period, there has been a noticeable trend towards slower airmass modification in next week's forecast guidance. More and more ensemble members are pinching off a shortwave within the mean Eastern CONUS troughing on Sunday. That feature spins into a cutoff upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic in the initial stages of the next work week. The presence of this feature will block/delay the eastward propagation of a mid/upper level ridge in the Ozarks, which, in turn, will prevent temperatures from quickly rebounding into the 70s in our forecast area. Rather, temperatures will gradually rise towards afternoon highs in the 60s on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Some patchy frost is possible in the favored hollows at night, but the overarching warming trend (albeit slower) will eventually favor lows in the 40s and valley fog. With fair skies in the forecast, Eastern Kentucky should get to enjoy a prolonged period of quiet autumnal weather early next week. The forecast becomes more uncertain for Wednesday and beyond. There are diverging model solutions surrounding that low pressure system's evolution, with some guidance even suggesting a potential hybrid tropical cyclone along the east coast. Others take the low out to sea, which would allow the building southern CONUS ridge to exert more influence over the Ohio River Valley. It is difficult to pinpoint specific temperature forecast details towards the end of the period as a result, but both camps favor dry weather in the region. The CPC Days 6-10 and Days 8-14 Outlooks resolve a 40-60% chance of below-normal precipitation in Eastern Kentucky, and climatologically speaking, this is already the driest time of the year here. D0 "Abnormally Dry" conditions were expanded across portions of the commonwealth in today's Drought Monitor update. Expect these contours to be maintained or perhaps even expand as this dry pattern sets up and potentially persist through the end of the month. Fire weather interests are encouraged to monitor for future updates on that topic as the time approaches. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 Mainly west to northwest winds in the 8 to 15KT range, with some gusts to near 20KT were observed at issuance time. Mainly VFR and MVFR were reported over the CWA, with some instances of IFR at times primarily within showers. The gusty winds will continue for much of the first 6 hours of the period as a cold front gradually departs and an upper level disturbance approaches. Even after the gusts diminish a bit, west to northwest winds at 5 to 12KT linger through 06Z, before winds become north in all areas in the 5 to 15KT range and remain through the end of the period. Rounds of showers or light rain are anticipated at times for most locations through 06Z, before diminishing from northwest to southeast as the disturbance gradually departs to the east. Low clouds and MVFR or lower should linger a bit longer through at least 12Z. Some gradual improvements in category are anticipated from north to south during the last 6 hours of the period as drier air moves into eastern KY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF AVIATION...JP  443 FXUS63 KMQT 161844 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 244 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry air and windy conditions could increase fire weather concerns this weekend. - Gales are possible over western Lake Superior on Saturday and again on Sunday. - Expect dry weather this weekend through at least the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As CAA ceases this evening with high pressure ridging and drier air moving in, expect the last of the lake effect rain showers to end over the eastern U.P. tonight. While there could be a changeover to snow at times over the north central and east the rest of this afternoon and evening as temperatures continue to gradually cool (melting layer is practically now at the sfc), no accumulations are expected given the warm ground and (mostly) above freezing temperatures expected across the area the rest of today through tonight. Expect the remaining liquid to be received across the north wind belts today through this evening to be less than a tenth of an inch. Drier weather returns this weekend and looks to stay in place across Upper MI through at least early next week. With drier air being advected in from the Southern Plains, we could see elevated fire weather concerns back across the area this weekend as gusty southwest winds in association with a LLJ return to the area and RHs potentially drop into the 20 percents. However, given the recent rainfall and cooler temperatures expected (particularly on Saturday where highs are only projected to get into the 50s), this risk is expected to be fairly mitigated. That being said, with the ongoing drought concerns still to deal with as well as fallen leaves at the sfc, elevated fire weather concerns could be realized by Sunday across the west half of Upper Michigan. From Monday onwards next week, fairly quiet weather is expected across the area. While we may have a cold front skirt us and bring some rain showers overhead around Wednesday/Thursday, with more high pressure ridging building into the central CONUS by the end of next week, we may remain dry for the rest of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gusty northerly winds upwards of 25-35 kts and lake effect rain is present this afternoon as the UP is sandwiched between a deepening low to the east and incoming sc high pressure to the west. Rain showers are expected to linger at SAW through the evening before drier air working into the region tonight tapers off precipitation. MVFR cigs at all sites slowly climb to VFR tonight with diminishing lake effect clouds. Strong winds relax overnight as the pressure gradient slackens. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Lake Superior: North gales up to 40 to potentially 45 kts over the eastern lake this afternoon give way to light winds of 20 kts or less after midnight tonight as high pressure ridging builds back into the region. Don't expect the light winds to stay for long, however, as the pressure gradient over the western lake tightens and a LLJ approaches the area. With the help of some funneling along the Bayfield and Keweenaw Peninsulas, a narrow band of gales up to 35 kts could return to western Lake Superior on Saturday (up to a 60% chance according to the REFS). However, after collaborating with NWS DLH, given the uncertainty on the strength of the mixing in the boundary layer, we decided to hold off on issuing a Gale Watch/Warning for Saturday at this time. That being said, a short- fused Gale Warning may be issued for the western lake later tonight or even on Saturday should confidence in the gales increase. A much higher chance of southwest gales occurring over the western half of the lake arrives Saturday night into Sunday; the latest REFS has low- end gale chances at nearly 100% then. However, as high pressure ridging strengthens over the region early next week, expect the winds to fall back down to 20 kts or less by early Monday morning and to remain that way through the rest of the first half of next week, potentially even through the entire rest of next week. Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Northerly gales up to 35 kts this afternoon weaken to 15 kts or less after midnight tonight as high pressure ridging builds back into the region. Don't expect the lighter winds to last all that long though as a tightening pressure gradient and incoming LLJ bring southwest winds of 25 to 30 kts back across the area on Saturday. The winds may even intensify a few knots Saturday night into Sunday, and gales up to 35 kts could be seen by Sunday morning (up to a 90% chance according to the latest REFS). However, with high pressure ridging building over the Upper Great Lakes early next week, expect the winds to die down to 15 kts or less again by Monday morning and to remain that way through the rest of the first half of next week, potentially even through the entire rest of next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ243>247-264. Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ248>250-265- 266. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ251-267. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...BW MARINE...TAP  214 FXUS64 KHGX 161812 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 112 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and windy this afternoon in the wake of the morning cold front. Secure outdoor items that could be lifted (Halloween yard decor, etc). - Hazardous marine conditions expected. Gale Warning is in effect today into Saturday for strong north winds and building seas. - Warmer temperatures return next week, but just seasonable in nature. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 With the cold front off the coast, northerly winds of 15-30 mph have developed over the region, with gusts reaching 25-42 mph. The strongest of these winds are expected/occuring west of I-45 and along islands. A wind advisory remains in effect, with the current configuration lasting through 1 AM Saturday as inland winds ease. Along the islands and waters, these strong winds will persist overnight, with Gale conditions most likely through early Saturday. With that, the Wind Advisory for the islands will remain in effect until 1 PM Saturday, matching the Gale Warning for all waters. Morning lows for Saturday will be in the upper 40s/mid 50s and upper 50s/lower 60s right along the coast. Daytime highs will top out in the upper 60s/lower 70s Saturday. The coldest temperatures arrive Sunday morning, reaching the lower 40s/lower 50s inland and upper 50s/lower 60s along the immediate coast. High pressure behind the front tracks eastward Sunday into next week. Ridging builds overtop the area while a coastal trough develops over the northwestern Gulf early next week. Isolated showers will be possible, though more so confined to coastal/Gulf zones, as easterly flow will limit moisture recovery for inland areas. Gradually warming is expected throughout the work week with highs for Thursday reaching the 80s/lower 90s. 03 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR cigs will lift/clear from north to south over the next few hours, ushering in VFR conditions later today. N winds of 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-36 kts continue this afternoon. Winds generally decrease overnight for sites outside the immediate coast/barrier islands, as Gale conditions are expected over the waters. Winds and gusts lower region-wide during the daytime on Saturday. JMG/03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Northerly winds of 20-30 knots are expected this afternoon, rising to Gale/near Gale force overnight with gusts up to 45 knots and seas of 7-13 feet. A Gale Warning is in effect until 1 PM Saturday. Winds and seas decrease Saturday afternoon, though Small Craft conditions may linger through early Sunday morning. Winds veer to the east next week as high pressure shifts east of the area. Some isolated showers/storms will be possible over the waters early in the work week as a coastal trough sets up offshore. 03 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Northerly winds of 15-30 mph with higher gusts of 25-42 mph continue this afternoon behind the cold front. The strongest winds should be west of I-45 and along the coast. Humidity will drop to 25-40%, short of reaching Red Flag Warning levels. Cannot completely rule out locally drier spots, as it's contingent on cloud cover, strength of the cold air advection and afternoon heating. While areas in SE Texas are not expected to hit Red Flag conditions, fire weather conditions will be elevated this afternoon. Texas A&M Forest Service maintains high to very high fire danger for SE Texas today. Caution is strongly advised when burning outdoors. Northerly winds decrease overnight into Saturday, dropping below 15mph at most locations by the afternoon as RH drops to 30-40%. Texas A&M Forest Service maintains high to very high fire danger on Saturday as well. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 48 69 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 52 71 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 60 73 61 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ176-177-195>199- 210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ436>439. GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370- 375. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...JMG MARINE...03  658 FXUS65 KSLC 161806 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1206 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms return to portions of southern Utah late Sunday morning through the afternoon. - More widespread precipitation is expected roughly Tuesday on into the weekend. Total water amounts remain around 0.50-1.50", with locally higher amounts to around 2.00-2.50" or so. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... Morning water vapor analysis shows ridging extending through the Great Basin while a broad cutoff low swirls near the Baja Peninsula. With dry and stable conditions, overnight lows dipped near to slightly below freezing in some locations, but temperatures are quickly rebounding. Forecast afternoon highs are expected to push to near seasonable levels in most locations, with the exception being portions of the San Rafael Swell and Castle Country where highs will run around 5-10 degrees below normal. The broad cutoff low will gradually shift east to northeastward into the Desert Southwest, before ejecting into the northern stream Sunday into Monday. For Saturday, conditions more or less look like a repeat of Friday but with temperatures nudging upwards slightly. Moisture associated with the low will start to push through portions of southern Utah Sunday morning into the afternoon, bringing enhanced cloud cover as well as isolated chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. After an overnight lull, similar conditions are then expected Monday. A larger northern stream trough will be digging southward from the PacNW on Tuesday. Models generally support this feature gradually cutting off from California into the Great Basin through the middle of the week, eventually translating eastward through the Intermountain West on into the weekend. Ensembles mean PWAT anomalies generally push into the 150-200% of normal range (AI ECM locally up to 250% across the Four Corners region). That said, there are some differences in exact timing, likely owing to the cutoff nature of the trough. Overall though, the general pattern would contain enhanced upper and midlevel support, which in combination with ample moisture would result in more widespread precipitation chances across the area. Current forecast water amounts have not changed markedly, with general storm total amounts (Tuesday through Friday) of around 0.50" to 1.50". Locally higher amounts of roughly 2.00" to 2.50" are noted in some orographically favored high terrain in a south to southwest flow regime. With the cutoff nature of the low, there is not much of a cold air tap, with 700 mb temps only falling to around 0C to -3C later Thursday into the weekend as the trough axis works in. Snow levels will remain above 10000 ft until then, only gradually falling to around 8500-9500 ft as the modestly cooler air moves in. Models in turn do support accumulating snow on the order of 4-12" or so in some of that higher terrain. && .AVIATION, Issued 656 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... KSLC...VFR conditions prevail at the terminal under clear skies through the valid TAF period. Light southerly drainage winds will transition to northerly flow around 20Z, remaining in place through the rest of the afternoon. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all regional terminals. A majority of terminals will continue to see light, terrain driven flows throughout the day, however, areas around KSGU through KCDC will see breezy northerly winds throughout the day. Peak winds in this area will gust upwards of 25-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...A strengthening ridge of high pressure is noted over the area, helping to maintain dry conditions. Temperatures are generally running near to a little below normal across much of the area, though will nudge upwards for Saturday. A grazing system will bring isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two to southern Utah Sunday and Monday, with increased cloud cover expected elsewhere. By Tuesday a larger scale trough is expected to dig into the Great Basin, gradually cutting off and then shifting eastward through the week. In combination with ample moisture, this system will bring unsettled conditions and more widespread precipitation to Utah. Forecast water amounts Tuesday on through Friday are roughly 0.50" to 1.50", with locally up to 2.00" to 2.50" in some of the favored high terrain. Snow will remain above 10000 feet through Thursday. Slightly cooler air moving in late Thursday on into Friday will allow snow levels to drop to roughly 8500-9500 feet, allowing some accumulating snow at higher elevations. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Warthen AVIATION...Webber FIRE WEATHER...Warthen HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  714 FXUS63 KAPX 161807 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 207 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy with lingering shower chances into this evening. - Breezy to windy again at times Saturday afternoon through Sunday. - Warming trend begins Sunday and continues into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low pressure that crossed lower MI last night is now situated well downstream in far southern Quebec/just north of upstate NY. Pressure gradient has tightened significantly this morning between that departing low and high pressure to our west -- this'll remain the case through this evening. Parent trough axis to the ongoing late week inclement weather is in the process of crossing the western Great Lakes this afternoon and early evening, with mid-upper level heights rising in its wake for the weekend. By Saturday afternoon through Sunday, northern MI will lie on the northern periphery of ~1032mb sfc high pressure centered to our south. Meanwhile, low pressure is expected to be crossing well to our north across parts of northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba/Ontario. A tightening pressure gradient locally will be the result once again, with renewed breezy to windy conditions. High pressure largely expected to remain in control all the way through the middle of next week before shower chances return toward the very tail end of the forecast period as a northern stream system looks to pass by to our north. Forecast Details: Stronger dynamics are in the process of shifting south and east out of northern MI this afternoon, largely taking any synoptically driven rain showers along with it. However, strong cold advection supporting increased overlake instability on the surrounding Great Lakes will likely keep at least scattered shower activity across parts of the forecast area into this evening (most numerous through sunset in the typical NNW flow lake belts). Still a non-zero chance that a few wet snowflakes mix in after sunset, primarily across the typically colder higher terrain/ interior areas of north-central lower MI -- that's if these areas can materialize a few lingering showers, something that's not favored given northerly low-level winds. Otherwise, windy conditions remain through this evening as well with gusts as high as 25-40 mph area-wide (highest near the lakeshores). Winds relax mid-evening through early Saturday morning. More sunshine expected for the weekend ahead, but breezy to windy conditions expected to return by Saturday afternoon lasting through the day on Sunday as northern MI becomes sandwiched between high pressure centered to our south and low pressure crossing well to the north. Winds largely out of the southwest through this time frame, gusting as high as 20-30 mph on Saturday, and 25-35+ mph at times on Sunday. Daytime highs on Saturday in the low-mid 50s moderate on Sunday -- largely ranging from the upper 50s far north to the low- mid 60s across much of northern lower. This warming trend from Sunday continues into at least the middle of next week as Pacific-dominant flow pattern should allow temperatures to remain above normal for mid-October. Highs Monday through Wednesday largely in the 60s area-wide, but a few spots climbing into the low 70s seem pretty likely. Next rain chances look to hold off until Thursday as a northern stream wave is progged to pass by to our north. Doesn't appear this will be a big rain maker, but may put a damper on temperatures. Even so, no glaring signals for a return of below or even near normal temperatures through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Conditions will improve this evening as CIG’s return to VFR at all TAF sites around 0000Z. Current gusty winds from the north will diminish overnight then turn southwest Saturday morning. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJG AVIATION...SJC  121 FXUS64 KSHV 161810 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 110 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - An areawide Red Flag Warning is in effect through 1 AM tonight. North central Louisiana parishes will be included in a Red Flag Warning tomorrow for continued very low humidity and gusty winds. - Cooler than average temperatures this weekend will be followed by a steady warming trend into next week, with dry weather throughout. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Behind the passing cold front, area dew points are plummeting into the 30s and 40s as a very dry airmass pours into the ArkLaTex. North winds are reaching gusts of 25 to 35 kts. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening hours before winds trend downward and humidity values increase towards daybreak. Winds will remain elevated enough that fog development is not expected unless in very isolated sheltered pockets. Dew points will remain low tomorrow, bringing minimum relative humidity values back into the 25 to 35 percent range. However, winds will not be as elevated as today, achieving sustained speeds of 5 to 15 kts with isolated gusts of up to 30 kts possible, the highest speeds expected across our southeastern zones in central Louisiana. Given these factors, have elected to issue a new Red Flag Warning for our north central Louisiana parishes from 7 AM through 9 PM tomorrow, with all other counties and parishes included in a Fire Danger Statement. The ArkLaTex will wake up to below average temperatures tomorrow morning, ranging from the lower 40s north to lower 50s south of the I-20 corridor. Abundant sunshine will prevail while cool air advection keeps afternoon highs in the upper 60s to just barely breaking 70 degrees at our warmest sites tomorrow. Sunday morning looks to be the chilliest of this forecast, as lows fall into the 40s areawide with even a few upper 30s possible in southwest Arkansas. By Sunday afternoon, all area sites should be taking aim at the 70s once again as ridging begins to take shape aloft over the south central CONUS. Rebuilding southwest flow aloft followed by amplifying ridging from east Texas over the Ouachitas and Ozarks will result in a rapid warming trend going into next week, with upper 70s and and lower 80s making a widespread return Monday and Tuesday, and middle to upper 80s and even some sites reaching 90 again by mid to late next week. The continuing proximity of upper level ridging and associated subsidence will inhibit any active weather, with dry and warm conditions expected through to the end of this extended forecast period. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For the 16/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected to gradually return to our airspace early this afternoon although some lingering MVFR and low VFR stratocu cigs will continue to affect parts of Deep East TX and North LA for a few more hours. In the wake of a strong cold front, expect mostly SKC by this evening and overnight with just some passing cirrus shifting overhead from the west. Otherwise, strong and gusty N/NW winds will persist behind the cold front with sustained speeds of 15-20 kts and higher gusts near 25-30 kts this afternoon. Winds will eventually drop slightly overnight but remain breezy between 10-15 kts on average throughout the remainder of the period. /19/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Behind the passage of the cold front, very dry air will overtake area fire districts, plunging relative humidity values into the 25 to 35 percent range. Concurrently, north-northwest winds will maintain sustained speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of up to 35 mph possible. Very low minimum relative humidity values will continue tomorrow. However, winds will not be nearly as elevated as today, achieving sustained speeds of 5 to 15 kts with isolated gusts of up to 30 kts possible, the highest speeds expected across our southeastern zones in central Louisiana, which will be included in another Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 9 PM tomorrow. All other zones will be included in a Fire Danger Statement. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Spotter activation may be needed today and through the day Saturday in the event of wildfire development. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 50 68 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 50 70 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 42 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 47 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 45 69 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 48 67 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 47 67 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 51 69 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ005-006- 013-014-018>022. OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...19  719 FXUS61 KCAR 161822 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 222 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Confidence increased in temperatures and showers. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong system tonight through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north tonight and strong winds tonight into Saturday. 2) Generally dry weather Sunday through late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system tonight through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north tonight and strong winds tonight into Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The low pressure system is centered to the west over Quebec and will continue to track ENE. As of this update the warm front has stretched over the St John Valley, which has brought temp above freezing across the region. The next round of rain ahead of the approaching cold front will continue to move from W to E through the rest of the afternoon. For tonight, the temps will continue to warm, keeping all remaining precip as rain. After sunset, but before midnight, the cold front will move through the region, gradually dropping temps into the 30s as NW winds increase. For Saturday, the remaining shortwave energy behind the front should create some showers in the north. Any showers on the back side of the cold front will be in the form of isolated snow showers in the North Woods. In addition, the approaching high pressure behind the exiting low will tighten pressure gradients on Saturday. Winds gust are expected to reach up to 35 mph, creating possible isolated power outages. KEY MESSAGE 2...Generally dry weather Sunday through late next week. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will generally control the weather Sunday through late next week. Several frontal passages will occur during that time. However, with only limited moisture available expect that the frontal passages will generally be dry. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rest of Today...IFR/LIFR cigs and vsby due to rain. S winds 10-15 kts with gust up to 30 kts. Tonight...IFR/LIFR conditions early, then becoming MVFR cigs after the rain ends. After midnight, VFR for all terminals. WNW winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Saturday-Sat night...VFR. NW winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts Saturday. Then WNW winds around 5 kts Sat night. Sunday through Wednesday...Variable conditions in any patchy overnight fog. Otherwise, VFR. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday. South winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday night. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Monday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Monday night. North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Tuesday, then 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots Wednesday. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory continues through Sat night. Winds will reach up to 25 kts and waves will reach 4-8 ft. Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ050>052. && $$ DISCUSSION...ARL/CN AVIATION...ARL/CN  171 FXUS63 KGRB 161811 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest winds continue through this afternoon, with gusts between 30 and 40 mph expected. Locally higher gusts to 45 mph will be possible along the lakeshore counties. Gale force gusts are expected across marine zones. - A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight as low temperatures fall into the middle 20s to low 30s for areas inland of Lake Michigan. - A prolonged stretch of dry and warm conditions expected Sunday through at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Rest of Today and Tonight: Strong cold advection and deep mixing will continue to produce strong northerly winds through early this evening with sustained winds around 15-25 mph and gusts around 30-40 mph. Locally stronger gusts near 45 mph are possible across northern Door Co. Winds will quickly diminish this evening (after 7pm) as surface temperatures quickly cool and stabilized the boundary layer. Skies are also expected to become partly to mostly clear tonight allowing for temperatures to fall into to the middle to upper 20s across central and northern WI and the low 30s across east-central WI. A Freeze Warning is in effect for all counties where the growing season has not ended, except Door county where lows will likely stay a few degrees warmer. Intermittent light showers will also continue through this afternoon across central and northern WI with cold northwest winds coming off Lake Superior. Expect those showers to diminish this evening. Extended... High pressure looks to be the main driver of the synoptic pattern through at least the middle of next week, with no organized systems on the horizon. This weekend will temperatures will rebound back towards normal as return southwesterly flow sets up over the region. Temperatures will continue to trend a few degrees warmer each day next week with highs by the middle of the week forecast to top 70 degrees across much of the region. With return to seasonally above normal temperatures and a prolonged dry period into next week will need to monitor fuels across drought stricken areas of northern WI to the possibility of an increased wildfire risk. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Primary aviation impact through the TAF period will be strong northerly winds, sustained around 15-20kts and gusting up to 30kts through the early evening. Winds will diminish quickly after 01-02Z this evening with light winds backing around to the west overnight. Intermittent light showers are possible across east-central WI this afternoon and may briefly drop vsbys to around 5-6SM, but should not last more than 20-30 minutes at any terminal. Otherwise, ceilings will gradually continue to rise through afternoon with all terminals eventually return to VFR by early this evening. As winds back around to the west skies will clear out from west to east this evening and overnight. Clear skies are then expected to prevail through much of this weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gale Warning remains on track for the Bay and Lake as northerly winds have ramped this morning. Waves will also build 4 to 7 ft on the Bay and 6 to 10 ft on the Lake today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on Lake Michigan and the Bay into tonight before winds and waves diminish early Saturday. Another period of hazardous marine conditions is expected Saturday afternoon through at least Sunday winds turn to the southwest and increase again. Addtioanl marine headlines will be needed, however, will hold off on issuing new headlines until the current headlines expire. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ020-030-031- 035>040-045-048>050-073-074. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ022. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......GK MARINE.........GK  189 FXHW60 PHFO 161827 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 827 AM HST Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to breezy trades will persist through the middle of next week with minor fluctuations in speed. Brief pulses of enhanced showers will roll through on the trades during this time period, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas in the overnight to early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... Radar and satellite imagery show isolated to scattered showers moving into mainly windward and mauka areas of the state this morning, and this activity is expected to continue over the next couple of hours. Looking just upstream, a plume of deeper moisture will arrive on the trades by sometime this afternoon for the eastern end of the state and work its way across the island chain. This will result in a slight uptick in windward and mauka shower activity as this plume of deeper moisture rolls through. These showers may produce brief moderate downpours at times, but they will move through rather quickly, so flooding is not expected to be an issue. Otherwise, high pressure to the far north will gradually build through the weekend as it edges eastward, which will help to strengthen the trades to moderate to locally breezy levels. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM HST Fri Oct 16 2026 Radar shows scattered windward and mauka showers across the state this morning. A large surface high continues to strengthen to our north. Aloft, a weak upper level low to our east will become a trough that stretches from southern CA all the way out to us. The trough will be weak, and apart from a slight increase in instability, we won't see much from it. Several impulses of increased moisture will move toward and over the state, especially the eastern end, over the coming week. The first will move through this afternoon and evening, and reach all islands. The second should move over the area late Sunday through late Monday, boosting showers mainly across the eastern end of the state. Finally, another area may reach us next Thursday, but at this time range confidence is low. Models currently indicate the focus of this one would be on the eastern end. Trade winds will remain moderate to breezy through the coming week, with the a slight increase possible Tuesday evening. A slight weakening may develop next Thursday, but as mentioned in the previous paragraph, at seven days out, confidence in that level of detail is low. Finally, guidance indicates that the upper level trough extending from southern CA over to us may join with energy moving in from the northwest and strengthen toward the middle of next week. It is unclear at this time whether it will develop into a closed low or a stronger trough. Either way, it may draw tropical moisture northward toward the state and present a heavy rain threat. Details should become clearer in a few days. && .AVIATION... Gusty trade winds will continue today and tonight. Shower coverage will increase from east to west during the next 24 hours, initially favoring windward portions of the Big Island and Maui today, then spreading toward Oahu and Kauai later today and tonight. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility are expected in passing showers, with VFR conditions prevailing between showers. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration has been cancelled for now. Increasing shower coverage may bring renewed mountain obscuration later today and tonight. AIRMET Tango remains for moderate low level turbulence downwind of island terrain. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure far north of the islands will strengthen as it drifts eastward through Saturday. Reinforcing high pressure will build far north of Hawaii on Sunday and will settle far northeast of the islands through early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail during this time, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui. The SCA has been extended through the weekend and may need to be expanded to additional waters. A small northwest swell will continue to fade today as a moderate north-northwest swell arrives. Surf along north- and west-facing shores should build quickly and top out near or slightly above seasonal average during the peak of the swell late this afternoon into tonight, then slowly decline Saturday and Sunday as the dropping swell shifts more northerly. A smaller overlapping northwest swell should arrive at the same time and maintain small surf on Sunday. Both swells fade early next week. A new long-periond south swell will peak today, keeping surf along south-facing shores just above seasonal average through tonight. This swell will slowly decline Saturday through early next week. Surf along east-facing shores will gradually increase over the next couple of days as trade winds strengthen over the region. Expect some wrap from the moderate north-northwest swell Friday afternoon into Saturday. This swell along with developing rough trade wind swell will produce east shore surf above seasonal average Sunday through early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 334 AM HST Fri Oct 16 2026 Surface high pressure north of the islands will produce moderate to breezy trade winds for the next few days. RH levels look to remain out of critical fire threshold ranges. The stronger trade winds will mainly impact higher elevation areas with even higher minimum humidity levels. Inversion heights should range from 6,000 to 9,000 feet today. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Farris DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...PECHACEK MARINE...Wroe  643 FXUS61 KAKQ 161831 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 231 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated TAF/Aviation discussion for 18z. SPC continued a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore, mainly due to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts this evening into late tonight. Still watching the potential for coastal low development later this weekend into next weekend, details remain highly uncertain at this time. Gale Warnings have been issued for most of the local waters with Gale Watches for the upper rivers. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near record warmth and breezy today with gusty showers (isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. 2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. 3) There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 AM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near record warmth and breezy today with gusty showers (isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. Early this morning, a shallow backdoor cold front that pushed south yesterday has stalled across the Carolinas and is beginning to lift back northward as a warm front. Satellite and surface observations show low stratus and patchy fog in the wake of the front due to a light onshore flow. In addition, light to moderate rain showers have developed across northern portions of the forecast area, with the highest coverage from the Northern Neck over to the MD Eastern Shore. Any low clouds and/or fog dissipates rather quickly later this morning as the front lifts north as a warm front and winds become southerly. An expansive deep upper trough digging across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley today will drive rapid, low-level warm air advection over the Mid Atlantic. Highs will soar into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, with a few spots potentially approaching 90F (upper 70s to lower 80s at the immediate Atlantic coast and across the Eastern Shore). These values are ~15 to 20 degrees above normal and will challenge record highs, see the climate section below for more details. Still expecting the daytime hours to remain dry area-wide. A strong cold front approaches from the NW this evening, and is forecast to cross the area late tonight into Saturday morning. CAMs still depict a thin, strongly forced line of showers and isolated storms late this evening into tonight. The overnight timing and limited instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg or less) should keep the overall severe threat low for a majority of the area. However, strong kinematics aloft will likely be able to mix down to the surface with wind gusts of 30 to 40+ mph possible as the front comes through. We will need to keep an eye on far northeastern portions of the area (MD Eastern Shore) where there may be slightly better instability and better kinematics. SPC has this area highlighted in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for areas north of I-64 for the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. The best dynamics for severe storms will likely be north of the local area. For Saturday, the front crosses the area and moves off the coast by the morning, triggering a sharp surge of cold air advection. Daytime highs will be achieved during the early morning hours, with temperatures struggling to get out of the mid 50s by the afternoon hours. Deep mixing in the wake of the front will promote breezy NW winds, with gusts of 25 to 35+ mph inland and 40 to 45+ mph along the immediatecoast. Rain chances hang on into the late morning/early afternoon hours (highest SE) as the upper shortwave does not cross the area until 18z or later. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. Strong NW flow aloft in the wake of the cold front will usher in the coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday. Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but there will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally, especially closer to the coast. With the surface high forecast to be 1035mb+, kept the theme from the previous forecast and undercut NBM lows by a few degrees in the northern Piedmont where decoupling is more probable closer to sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dewpoints, at least patchy frost will be possible there. Closer to the coast, lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Mostly sunny Sunday (potentially more clouds in the SE) with highs about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Additional frost potential is possible Sunday night into Monday morning across the northern Piedmont with temperatures again dropping back into the 30s. KEY MESSAGE 3...There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. Considerable ensemble/deterministic model spread exists heading into early to mid next week. Strong high pressure wedges down from the north, while an upper cutoff low develops off the Southeast/Mid Atlantic coast. Guidance continues to struggle with how close this coastal system remains to the shoreline, with some solutions having this low retrograding back towards the local area by mid to late week. For now, have low end (slight chance) rain chances along the immediate coast through much of next week, but this will be refined as models get a better handle on this coastal system. Breezy N to NE winds will likely persist through much of next week, with the highest gusts along the immediate coast. Near to slightly below average temperatures are currently in the forecast for next week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Friday... VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon. The frontal boundary has lifted back north of the region as expected, and breezy W-SW winds to 15-20 kt at RIC/ORF/PHF/ECG through 22z or so. Still expecting a strong cold front to drop across the local area this evening, allowing fora round of convective wind gusts and perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two. Have added a Prob30 group to account for convective showers with wind gusts to 30 kt, as well as brief VSBY restrictions and sub-VFR CIGS. A more prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions arrives later Sat morning. Winds shift N-NW post-frontal mainly between 02-07z (10p-3a EDT) with MVFR ceilings and more widespread (stratiform) rain moving into the region. Rain tapers off Saturday morning at SBY, by midday Saturday at RIC, but could linger into the evening at PHF/ORF/ECG. Winds briefly diminish post-frontal, but quickly ramp back up with onset of cold air advection, especially from mid to late morning Saturday through afternoon inland, but through much of the weekend along the coast, gusting to 30-40 kt at ORF/ECG Sat afternoon. Have MVFR to IFR CIGs developing across all terminals (only briefly at SBY). Outlook: After brief improvement, sub-VFR CIGs do look to return/linger across the southeast Sat night into Monday, as a nor'easter develops offshore. && .MARINE... As of 525 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - SW winds increase today but should largely remain sub-SCA through this afternoon. - A strong cold front crosses the local waters tonight,bringing SCA conditions. SCAs are in effect for this surge. A brief period of gusts up to 35 kt is possible immediately behind the front. - Gale conditions are expected from Saturday morning through at least Sunday night with the potential for Gale conditions lingering well into next week. Gale Warnings are in effect for most of the local waters with Gale Watches in effect for the upper rivers. - Widespread coastal flooding is possible next week with the potential for several days of flooding beginning Sunday and continuing into at least mid-week. Winds this morning have turned to the S/SE as a warm front lifts north across the local waters. Light S winds early this morning become SW and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt later this morning through this afternoon. While most guidance keeps winds sub- SCA, some guidance shows portions of the middle Ches Bay and northern coastal waters potentially reaching low-end SCA conditions by late this afternoon into this evening. As such, have SCAs starting at 7 PM for these locations. Elsewhere, SCAs start at 10 PM this evening to account for N winds behind a strong cold front associated with an area of low pressure moving into northern New England. Will note that given the strength of the front (pressure rises of around 5 mb in 6 hours), winds may abruptly become N and gust to 35 kt for a couple of hours. However, given the short duration of this surge and generally low confidence in this surge, think SMWs are a better way to handle the surge. The stronger CAA lags behind the front as a strong area of high pressure (~1038 mb) builds into the southern Plains. As the high gradually gets closer to the region, the pressure gradient tightens with N winds increasing to 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35-40 kt Sat morning. The 00z model guidance (GFS/EURO/CMC) is in greater agreement that a coastal low will likely form along this front by late Sat/Sat night as a piece of vorticity becomes cutoff across the region. If a cutoff low does form aloft, the surface low underneath will likely struggle to move much through mid-late week next week given weak flow aloft underneath a large, broad upper level ridge. As such, models show this coastal low meandering through mid-late week next week (some even longer). If this occurs, the local waters would remain under a tight pressure gradient between the coastal low off the Southeast coast and strong high pressure building into interior New England. As such, a prolonged period of NE Gale conditions (winds initially become NE Sun morning) could persist well into next week with the best chance across the southern coastal waters. Elevated winds, seas, beach erosion, and tidal flooding are all possible. For now, have issued Gale Warnings for all of the local waters except the upper rivers beginning Sat morning and continuing through Sun night. However, extensions of the Gale Warnings are likely (especially across the southern waters) into midweek. For now, have limited the Gale Warning to six forecast periods (per collaboration with neighboring offices) and will likely keep extending by one or two forecast periods at a time (if confidence allows) with each major forecast update. Additionally, have Gale Watches for the upper rivers from Sat evening through Sat night given lower confidence and a later time of arrival for the potential Gale conditions. Confidence is lower in the wave/sea forecast than the winds. However, currently have seas building to 8-12 ft north and 9-13 ft south (12-15+ ft offshore) by Sat night into Sun. Meanwhile, waves build to 4-8 ft across the Ches Bay (highest across the lower Ches Bay). Will note that if a period of prolonged NE winds at Gale conditions does develop and persist for several days, seas could be higher than currently forecast. Given the building seas, High Surf Advisories will likely be needed along at least the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach and potentially across the Eastern Shore as well. However, confidence in the start time for 8+ ft nearshore waves is low before Sat night (fourth period). As such, have opted to hold off on High Surf Advisories for this update. COASTAL FLOODING... Given the prolonged period of strong NE winds next week, widespread coastal flooding is possible. Tidal anomalies begin to increase Saturday with mainly nuisance flooding possible along the lower Ches Bay. By Sunday, winds become NE, resulting in the potential for widespread minor flooding with localized moderate flooding possible at a few locations. The current tidal forecast only goes through Monday, however, widespread minor to moderate flooding is possible Monday and will continue to be possible into at least the middle of next week. Will note that moderate to major flooding is possible, particularly if NE winds trend strong and/or look to linger several days. Coastal communities should be aware of the potential for multiple days of coastal flooding with each high tide next week and stay tuned as the forecast gets refined and details get ironed out. && .CLIMATE... - Record High Temperatures Fri 10/16: - RIC: 90 (1897) (latest in season 90F on record) - ORF: 87 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/14/2026) - SBY: 85 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) - ECG: 86 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ102. VA...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ631-632-634-656-658. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632- 634-652-654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633- 639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ639. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB AVIATION...MAM MARINE...RMM CLIMATE...LKB  598 FXUS61 KCTP 161820 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 220 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686 issued for most of central PA until 8PM this evening * Freeze Watch issued for most of central PA late Saturday night into early Sunday morning && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered damaging winds possible this afternoon and evening 2) Blustery and much turning much colder tonight and Saturday 3) Frost and freeze conditions Saturday night into early Sunday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered damaging winds possible this afternoon and evening Convection has gradually increased in intensity crossing the south central Alleghenies early this afternoon along/just ahead of a surface cold front. Downstream, stronger heating has been ongoing where low stratus have eroded from earlier this morning. Temperatures have warmed into the 70s where this stronger heating has occurred, and weak destabilization is supporting expanding coverage of storms. While instability and lapse rates are expected to remain rather mild resulting in a low-topped , strong deep- layer flow will support transient organized bowing structures, and strong gusts at the surface largely in the absence of significant lightning. The main damaging wind threat appears focus along and to the southeast of KJST/KUNV/KIPT. A few line- embedded mesocirculations could also occur, which could yield a brief tornado. ----------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Blustery and much turning much colder tonight and Saturday The post-frontal winds gusting 25-35 mph direct much colder air into CPA through tonight into Saturday. Clouds and winds have resulted in slightly warmer overnight low temps so advective freeze is probably off the table for the NW mtns. Low level flow turns more northerly overnight which should limit lake effect response, although a few rain/snow showers remain possible over the higher terrain. Min wind chills by Saturday morning will be in the 25-35F range across the western and central Alleghenies. Highs on Saturday will be 20 to 30 degrees colder vs. Friday. ------------------------------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 3: Frost and freeze conditions Saturday night into early Sunday Frost/freeze still looks good for Saturday night into early Sunday morning as clouds fade and winds subside. Issued Freeze watch for active zones in the late innings of the growing season. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Brief IFR restrictions expected along cold front and associated line of gusty showers/storms moving southeast from KJST/KUNV/KIPT. Wind shift from 230-270 to 300-360 degrees behind the front will result in MVFR cigs with IFR most likely at KBFD/KJST. Expect frequent gusts 25-30kts into Saturday before gradually subsiding by 00Z Sunday. Return to widespread VFR expected by Saturday night. Outlook... Sun-Tue...AM fog possible; otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ004-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Steinbugl  190 FXUS62 KJAX 161839 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 239 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated Thunderstorms are Possible Across North Central FL this Afternoon and Early this Evening. - Marine & Coastal Hazards this Weekend and Next Week. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf Developing by Saturday Evening. Wind Gusts of 30-40 mph at Coastal Locations from Saturday through Monday. Gale Warnings for All Atlantic Coastal Waters from Saturday Afternoon through Monday Night. Minor Tidal Flooding Along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway and the St. Johns River Basin. Significant Beach Erosion Possible at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide from Sunday through at least Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: Afternoon surface analysis depicts a strong cold front extending from New England southward through the southern Appalachians and the lower Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, impressively strong high pressure (1046 millibars) for mid-October was building eastward from the Rockies towards the Plains states in the wake of this strong cold front. Aloft...stout ridging centered east of the Bahamas was extending its axis westward to our area, downstream of a potent trough that was digging southeastward from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a seasonably dry air mass was lingering across southeast GA, where PWATs were generally around 1.25 inches. Otherwise, deeper moisture was gradually advecting northward from the FL peninsula ahead of the approaching front, with PWATs climbing to near or just above 1.75 inches across north central FL, while values elsewhere were slowly approaching 1.5 inches. A healthy cumulus field has developed across our area as moisture levels gradually increase, but shower development thus far remains just south of our area in Volusia County (along the developing Atlantic sea breeze boundary), with convection otherwise confined to the Gulf waters adjacent to FL's Nature coast, as well as the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to east central FL. Temperatures at 18Z have generally climbed to the mid and upper 80s, with dewpoints ranging from the low and mid 60s across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley to the low and mid 70s along the northeast FL coast. Enough moisture will advect across north central FL later this afternoon and early this evening for isolated to widely scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to develop, mainly for locations around Lake George and Crescent Lake, with measurable rainfall chances generally confined to areas south of a line from Gainesville to Palatka to St. Augustine. Any showers or isolated storms that develop across north central FL should dissipate before the mid-evening hours, followed by increasing multi-layered cloud cover overnight. Potent troughing aloft will dig into the southeastern states tonight, driving a strong cold front across southeast GA and Suwannee Valley during the overnight and predawn hours, with this front crossing north central and coastal northeast FL towards sunrise. A few showers or light sprinkles will be possible along or just behind the frontal boundary, with winds abruptly shifting to northwesterly during the predawn hours and becoming gusty from north to south towards sunrise. Lower stratus cloud cover will also overspread our region during the predawn and early morning hours on Saturday, and late arriving cold air advection will drop lows to around 60 for locations north of Waycross in southeast GA, ranging to the lower 70s for north central and coastal northeast FL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Strengthening Northerly Winds Tonight: Gusts to around 30-40 mph expected on Saturday through Sunday. Strongest gusts mainly for the coastal areas. - Coastal & Marine Hazards Increase This Weekend. Strong frontal boundary will likely have already cleared our area by Saturday Morning, as cool and dry high pressure ridging quickly builds in from the west, ushering in both the coolest and driest airmass of the fall season so far. This airmass will also feature windy northerly conditions Saturday that will transition towards more of a northeasterly wind event on Sunday. Not expecting much in the way of rainfall/convection with the frontal passage, though Hi- Res guidance is highlighting at least some isolated shower potential Saturday over southern areas, mainly during the morning hours. The main difference with this event compared to the previous onshore flow event will be the strength of the presssure gradient and therefore expected winds, as low pressure rapidly intensifying off the Carolinas and pulling away towards the northeast will tighten the gradient. Despite flow generally around 15-25 mph with gusts up to the 30-40 mph range, tidal influences will line up closer to a new moon cycle, and therefore not expecting as impactful of a coastal/river flood event at this time. However, the persistent flow and some remnant tides still trapped in some areas (especially upstream for the St. Johns River) could return flooding concerns, but not until after the short term period. With this forecast package, have begun High Risk for Rip Currents beginning Saturday Morning, in addition to Small Craft Advisories/Gale Warnings over area waters. Saturday will be overall warmer than Sunday with overall decreasing clouds, and chances for a few isolated showers over southern areas as mentioned above. High temps will be mainly in the 70s, though some areas may see a high temperature overnight tonight due to the cold air advection. Low temps will have a larger discrepancy thanks to the onshore flow: Upper 40s to mid 50s are expected generally north and west of the coast and St. Johns River Valley, with upper 50s to low 60s south and east. Highs will struggle to get out of the 60s for many on Sunday, with just a few clouds inland and more maritime influenced clouds streaming onshore further south and east. Isolated to widely scattered showers may also make it to the immediate coastline at times on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected Monday through Wednesday. - Below Normal Temperatures This Period. Strong high pressure will remain oriented to the north and northeast through most or all of the long term period, driving a prolonged period of elevated onshore flow. Model guidance is generally more divided with respect to the behavior of both the upper low and surface low to our northeast towards mid to late week, though there is at least enough agreement with respect to the system lingering near the offshore Carolinas vicinity through at least the Monday/Tuesday time frame, which will keep the enhanced onshore conditions going to an extent. As expected, beach, marine, and river hazards are forecast to continue through much of the long term, with magnitude of coastal/river flooding impacts to be monitored over the coming days - though confidence is growing with respect to at least coastal flood advisory conditions for the St. Johns River and coast. Temperatures will remain generally below normal for long term period. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 09Z Saturday. Showers could potentially approach the GNV and SGJ terminals after 21Z, but confidence remains too low to indicate vicinity shower coverage at this time. MVFR ceilings of 1,000 - 2,000 feet will then overspread the terminals from north to south after 09Z, with isolated to widely scattered showers possible through the morning and early afternoon hours on Saturday. Confidence is currently too low for anything other than vicinity shower coverage at this time. West-southwesterly surface winds will remain sustained at 5-10 knots at the inland terminals through around 23Z, while the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary shifts surface winds to east or southeasterly around 10 knots at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals by 19Z. Surface winds will then shift to southwesterly after 02Z as speeds gradually diminish. Surface winds will then abruptly shift to northwesterly while increasing to 10-15 knots and gusty towards 12Z Saturday, accompanying the arrival of MVFR ceilings. Surface winds will then shift to north- northwesterly by 15Z, with sustained speeds increasing to around 15 knots, with frequent gusts around 25 knots expected towards the end of this TAF period. && .MARINE... A strong cold front entering the southeastern states will cross our local waters early on Saturday morning. Isolated late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible well ahead of this front, mainly for the waters south of St. Augustine. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will then be possible during the predawn and morning hours on Saturday during the frontal passage. Winds will abruptly shift to northwesterly during the predawn and early morning hours on Saturday, with speeds quickly increasing to Gale levels during the late morning and early afternoon hours as strong high pressure over the southern Plains states in the wake of this front shifts quickly northeastward towards the Ohio Valley by Saturday evening, with this feature then wedging down the southeastern seaboard. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary to the east of the Gulf Stream waters off the southeastern U.S. coast on Saturday night, with this feature then drifting westward towards the Outer Banks through the early portions of next week. Gale conditions will likely continue throughout our local waters from Saturday night through Monday night, with seas building to 10-15 feet. Low pressure may become stationary near the southeastern seaboard towards midweek, likely keeping strong north-northeast winds in place. Rip Currents / High Surf: A lower end moderate risk may develop this afternoon at the northeast FL beaches as onshore winds develop behind the inland moving sea breeze. A high risk will then develop from north to south on Saturday, as strengthening northwesterly winds during the morning shift to northerly during the afternoon hours, with frequent Gale Force wind gusts creating building and dangerous surf conditions. Breakers at the northeast FL beaches will build to the 8-10 foot range on Sunday, with these high surf conditions expected to continue through at least Tuesday. Breakers at the southeast GA beaches will likely build to the 5-7 foot range from Sunday through Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions This Weekend. - Elevated Nighttime Dipersion Values at Coastal Locations on Saturday and Sunday Nights. West to southwest winds will be expected this afternoon ahead of a cold front, except generally east of the I-95 corridor this afternoon thanks to a weak sea breeze influence. Dispersions will be mostly in the fair to good range, highest over interior GA where winds aloft will be a bit stronger. A strong but mostly dry cold front moves through tonight and through Saturday, ushering in a dry and windy north to northeasterly flow this weekend and into early next week. This will result in good dispersions this weekend, which could be high at times during the afternoon/evening in some patchy areas. Dispersions will also be elevated near the coastline each night this weekend thanks to persistent breezy onshore flow. This general pattern will continue, albeit become a bit weaker, for much of next week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Fog formation is not expected through at least the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and throughout the St. Johns River basin beginning on Sunday and likely continuing through at least the middle portion of next week. Significant beach erosion is likely around times of high tide at the northeast FL beaches beginning on Sunday, where breakers will build to the 8-10 foot range, with these high surf conditions expected to continue through at least Tuesday. Minor to moderate beach erosion will be possible around times of high tide at the southeast GA beaches, especially from late Sunday through Tuesday, where breakers will likely build to the 5-7 foot range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 61 69 49 64 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 68 74 55 69 / 10 20 0 0 JAX 68 74 56 68 / 10 10 0 0 SGJ 71 76 63 71 / 20 20 10 20 GNV 69 75 55 70 / 10 20 0 0 OCF 70 75 57 72 / 30 30 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from Saturday morning through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Saturday morning through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474. Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474. && $$  941 FXUS63 KDTX 161825 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 225 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of showers with gusty northwest winds this evening. - Turning colder tonight with low temperatures Saturday morning reaching the low to mid 30s. This will lead to some areas of frost. - Cooler conditions exist Saturday, then turning warmer Sunday into next week. No rain expected through this time. && .AVIATION... Nuanced aviation forecast this afternoon given the highly variable environment as it relates to ceilings, gusts, and shower potential. During this on-going lull, winds have trended weaker with a distinct absence in gusts, but this should be temporary as the secondary cold front makes further inroads this evening. The upstream cold advection steepens temperature profiles and promotes renewed mixing, favoring gusts in excess of 25 knots, at times. Gradient winds also respond accordingly, both in increased magnitude and veered directionality, eventually becoming northerly. Could see brief heavier rainfall rates with the shower activity positioned along the front, before drier air eventually fills in behind the boundary. Lake moisture flux complicates the drying/clearing rate, but should eventually see an aggressive decrease in cloud coverage overnight to reach a SKC condition. Gusts also drop-off nocturnally as stabilization occurs in tandem with the departure of the stronger low-level wind field, while prevailing speeds appear slightly slower to respond. High pressure builds rapidly from The Plains to Appalachia on Saturday ensuring a low cloud fraction, weaker winds, and a shift back to WSW flow. D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms are forecast today or tonight. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet today and through the first half of tonight. * Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded today. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 DISCUSSION... A cold front is in the process of clearing SE MI and will bring about breezy conditions, steadily falling temperatures, and periodic rain showers for today. The departure of low pressure from Michigan into Ontario and Quebec will have cold air advection ramp up through the day as low level flow backs from west to north-northwest. The advection of cooler air will greatly dampen or nullify the typical diurnal peak in temperatures this afternoon as they fall from the 50s-60s this morning into the 40s by the evening. This will be reinforced from a secondary cold front that will progress across SE MI late this morning into the early afternoon hours. Passage of this secondary frontal boundary will further increase mixing depths, producing breezy conditions with gusts ranging between 30-35 mph. Some isolated potential to 40 mph will be possible after the passage of the secondary cold front, but the absence of appreciable stronger wind speeds within the mixed layer lowers confidence for higher frequency gusts to 40+ mph. The exception will be within the Thumb given reduced surface friction along the lake as flow backs to the NNW. Retainment of appreciable low-level moisture wrapped in cyclonic flow coupled with shallow instability within the mixed layer will support drizzle and rain shower chances through the afternoon and evening hours. Coverage of rain showers will start to decrease in the evening hours for most locations as flow backs to the north, which cuts off the additive moisture advection derived from Lake Michigan. Consequently, coverage will likely increase around the Lake Huron shoreline once wind direction orients more favorably off of Lake Huron. The enhanced pocket of shallow instability coming off the lake will supplement moisture advection onshore. Notably stronger lapse rates extending through 700mb and positive buoyancy extending through the -10C isotherm could support more vigorous convective shower development and/or isolated thunderstorms, capable of producing small hail. Strong high pressure will rapidly build in from west to east overnight which will scour and advect out low-level stratus as dry air works in. Clear skies coupled with the early day cold air advection will bring chilly overnight lows. Efficient radiational cooling drop temperatures into the low to mid 30s, bringing high potential for patchy to widespread frost. The coldest temperatures will be found across the interior of SE MI through the Tri-Cities where temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are possible. Below normal temperatures hold tomorrow afternoon with highs capped in the low to mid 50s. High pressure then sets up and expands over the Midwest and Great Lakes next week which will bring an extended period of dry weather. Temperatures rebound back to above normal values in the mid to upper 60s, possibly low 70s, by the late week period. This will bring a period of idyllic fall weather under mostly clear skies for a greater portion of next week. MARINE... Deepening low pressure tracks across central/southern Lake Huron this morning before quickly departing east today. The system sends a strong cold front southward across the region with wind shifting to N/NNW in its wake. Cold advection over the lakes brings increasing instability through the day with lake effect showers and gusty northerly flow ensuing. The strongest core of winds aloft arrives late afternoon and this evening with gusts to gales up to 40 kt on Lake Huron, especially across the southern basin where fetch is maximized. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all of Lake Huron. Farther south to Lakes St. Clair and Erie, brief gusts to 35 kt will be possible late this evening but expectation is for most gusts to hold near or below 30 kt given shorter fetch. Wind magnitude begins to subside after midnight and continues to weaken through Saturday morning as a ridge of high pressure extends in from the Midwest. The ridge then quickly shifts into the Ohio Valley, pairing with a deep low over northern Ontario to produce a strong WSW pressure gradient over the local area late Saturday into Sunday. Sunday afternoon remains a target for potential gusts to gales over Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron. The high pressure then gradually expands northward to bring more tranquil marine conditions early next week. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ047-048-053- 054-060>062. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ049-055-063- 068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443- 462>464. Lake St Clair...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....KGK DISCUSSION...AM MARINE.......TF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  326 FXUS63 KGID 161841 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 141 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning is in effect Tonight/Saturday Morning from 1-9AM as overnight lows are expected to dip below freezing for the first time this season (to as low as 26-32 degrees). - The locations that will have the overall coldest temperatures tonight as well as be the first to reach freezing tonight will be for areas concentrated towards the north and west portions of the area. - The forecast through Wednesday remains precip-free with the next faint signal for precipitation coming Thursday (30-40% chance). - Highs SAT-MON will mainly range the 60s with a warmup back into the 70s favored to take shape after Tuesday next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today (Friday) & Tomorrow (Saturday)... A passing upper-level trough today (Friday) will soon bring height/pressure rises to the area with a ridge expected to follow in behind from the west. This feature will lead to regional subsidence that will both clear out skies and suppress any chance for precipitation through the weekend and for the first half of next week. At the surface, a massive near 1045 hPa high pressure center will continue to build in from off the High Plains/Rockies. As the surface pressure continues to rise today, winds speeds out of the north should only continue to slow down through the afternoon/night tonight. Light to calm winds (speeds <10MPH) could return as early as this evening. As this high pressure center passes through the area tonight, the light surface winds will swap to a south to southwesterly orientation ahead of Saturday. The main story tonight, however, will be for sub-freezing temperatures as lows settle in the upper 20s to low 30s across the entire region. As this will become the areas first freeze of the season, a Freeze Warning will be in effect from 1AM to 9AM tonight/Saturday morning. Though the warning does not go into effect until 1AM tonight, a few areas northwest of the Tri-Cities could possibly see temperatures drop quickly into the mid to low 30s shortly after sunset (common underneath light winds and clear skies). This freeze should only remain a one night issue as the southerly returning surface winds for Saturday (10-20 mph gusting as high as 30-35 mph in the afternoon) should bump up temperatures around 10 degrees higher than today. Highs for Saturday will look to range the upper 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Next Week... Considerable confidence from the LREF members regarding the upper- level pattern next week lead us to conclude that this ridging pattern will continue on into the first half of next week. This feature will allow temperatures to retain in the 60s through Monday with a more notable warmup possible Tuesday and Wednesday. The long- range models continue to also keep the surface winds out of the south with little day-to-day change of surface broad high pressure to the east and broad low pressure to the west (channeling in the southerly warm air advection pattern). The next chance of precipitation does not come in the forecast until Thursday as the next upper-level trough/wave looks possible to slide in next. Though model guidance begins to wane in regards to the timing/intensity of the trough, at least some chance of precipitation looks to be plausible as this next disturbance approaches near the middle-to-end of next week. Details will continue to be refined as this event becomes closer into range. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Gusty winds out of the north today will soon lighten as the evening approaches. Higher pressure moving through the area today and tonight will help these winds become light to even calm tonight between mainly 2-8z. Across this period in time, the surface winds will switch from a northerly to southwesterly (around 200 degrees) direction. Winds should gradually increase across the Saturday morning to early afternoon hours with speeds nearing 12-15kts and with gusts as high as 25-30kts around midday Saturday. Otherwise, the MVFR cloud base has seemed to scattered enough out this afternoon to prevent ceilings from redeveloping. VFR conditions should now prevail as cloud coverage is expected to remain minimal across the next 24hours. No precipitation is expected. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Stump  111 FXUS63 KLMK 161838 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 238 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy winds and scattered light rain showers will continue through this evening. * Cool temperatures linger throughout the weekend, with frost and possibly some freezing temperatures (over the Bluegrass region) on Sunday morning. * After today's light rain, dry and seasonable weather is expected over the weekend and next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ********Breezy and Cool Today********* With frontal passage this morning, winds have been breezy out of the northwest. We hit our max temps this morning right before frontal passage, and will hit our mins close to midnight. Overnight lows will be around 40. Expect spotty, light showers through the remainder of the day. A surface high pressure will build into the region on Saturday and the low pressure continue off to the northeast. This tight pressure gradient will keep breezy conditions through Saturday afternoon before weakening. Skies will gradually clear by Saturday afternoon from northwest to southeast. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid- upper 50s. ***********This Weekend's Chill*********** Sunday morning, temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s, which will bring frost and a chance for freezing temperatures. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Bluegrass counties. This may be upgraded to a Freeze Warning or a Frost Advisory in subsequent forecasts. Areas southwest of this Freeze Watch may be added to the potential frost advisory. In the afternoon, highs will warm into the low-mid 60s. *****************Next Week****************** We will remain under loose ridging and surface high pressure for much of next week. This means light winds, clear skies, and highs creeping up into the upper 60s on Monday, 70s through the middle of next week, and potentially scraping 80 in a few southwestern spots by the end of next week. Overnight lows will remain in the 40s for next week. Northeasterly flow and dry air aloft may bring some chances for dry air mix down next week. If this is the case, we will see drier afternoon RHs in the upper teens and low 20s. Should be a seasonable fall week ahead. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 129 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front has passed through the region and MVFR CIGs remain this afternoon. CIGs will briefly improve this afternoon before another round of MVFR CIGs move in from the north. Skies will clear in the morning from northwest to southeast. Intermittent gusts up to 25kts will continue through the afternoon. At times, gusts may subside. Through the overnight hours, winds will remain breezy and will steadily veer to from the north. Light rain showers will end by this evening. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ036-037-041>043-049. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JPH/SRW AVIATION...SRW  160 FXUS63 KTOP 161839 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 139 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect tonight and early Saturday. -After a few chilly days, temperatures gradually warm into the middle of next week. -Rain chances stay low until late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Windy and cloudy conditions continue in eastern KS this afternoon while an upper trough axis pushes east of the area and as a large surface ridge builds in from west. The ridge will settle over the area tonight, allowing skies to clear and winds to become calm. This creates favorable conditions for radiational cooling and very chilly temperatures tonight and early Saturday. With the first freeze expected for some, confidence was high enough to upgrade the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for the northwestern half of the forecast area, and to continue the Frost Advisory for our remaining counties where temperatures will drop to near freezing. There could be some isolated locations, especially those in valleys, within the Advisory area that also drop to or just below freezing for a few hours before sunrise tomorrow. High pressure begins moving east of the area tomorrow but the associated cool and dry air mass will stick around. Highs tomorrow afternoon will run about ten degrees below average, capping temps around 60 degrees. Southwesterly flow and warming 850mb temperatures will help nudge highs into the mid and upper 60s on Sunday. A warming trend will continue into the middle of next week with each day about four to five degrees warmer than the previous day. While a few shortwaves in southwest flow aloft may move over western KS periodically this week, have kept POPs less than 10 percent until the very end of the week when a strong system approaches the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Stratus is expected to remain VFR and will scatter this afternoon, giving way to clear skies by tonight. Gusty north-northwest winds will also subside this evening, becoming calm overnight and Saturday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ026-KSZ037- KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey  362 FXUS65 KREV 161829 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1129 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm and dry weather prevails through the weekend with east to southeast breezes this afternoon. * Increasing south to southwest winds by Monday afternoon as a storm approaches the west coast. * Chances of rain and mountain snow showers may return by mid-late next week, but confidence is low. && .DISCUSSION... Breezy E/SE winds this afternoon with gusts 25-30 mph may produce minor fire concerns in far northeast CA/northwest NV, and also in Mineral County. While most areas should see these winds diminish tonight, a small area of enhanced SE-S winds (gusts 30-35 mph) is still indicated over Mineral and SE Churchill counties overnight into early Saturday morning, bringing a short period of choppy conditions on Walker Lake. Lighter winds then prevail through most of the weekend, except for a return of modest zephyr-type southwest/west breezes (gusts 20-25 mph) Sunday afternoon. Temperatures this weekend will rise into the mid-upper 70s for lower elevations and near 70 degrees in the Sierra. For next week, an approaching storm from the eastern Pacific is expected to bring increased S-SW winds Monday afternoon, although the latest guidance is trending slower with this storm's approach toward the west coast. This would delay the onset of winds and also cap the speeds a bit with gusts more in the 30-35 mph range from the Reno-Tahoe areas northward to the OR border. These winds with ongoing dry conditions could lead to a period of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon. For the remainder of next week, this storm appears to show a greater potential of stalling offshore Tuesday and reducing shower chances across the region. Then from Wednesday through Friday, a more varied storm track continues to limit confidence in rain and mountain snow chances/amounts, especially north of I-80. Currently the eastern Sierra and Tahoe are favored with 50-70% chances centered on Wednesday, but dropping to a broader 25-50% elsewhere. Showers could linger or even have a delayed onset until later next week, as some scenarios hold the low offshore before finally moving inland as a weaker system. A few wetter outcomes are still within the realm of the ensemble guidance ranges, but at this time a less significant precip event is more likely next week. Cooler temperatures are still on the table next week from Tuesday onward, with highs generally in the upper 50s-mid 60s for lower elevations and lower-mid 50s for Sierra communities. MJD && East FL100 winds of 30-35 kt will maintain mountain wave turbulence concerns along and west of the Sierra crest until these winds decrease later this afternoon. For the main terminals, east-southeast wind gusts generally below 20 kt continue through 02-03Z this evening, except KCXP/KMMH which are more prone to increased winds from this direction could see gusts up to 25 kt. VFR conditions prevail through the weekend with light winds prevailing Saturday, then southwest breezes with gusts 15-20 kt return by Sunday afternoon at the main terminals. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$  788 FXUS65 KRIW 161832 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1232 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A mostly sunny and cool autumn day today, with highs in the 50s. - A warming trend will return for the upcoming weekend, with highs reaching the upper 50s west of the Divide, and the 60s to lower 70s for central Wyoming. - Rain chances start to move back into southwest Wyoming for the latter half of the week, but current chances remain low for most areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1231 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 No major changes to the forecast with this update. Seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures continue through the week, with no precipitation expected until at least Tuesday (across far western Wyoming). Saturday looks to be the warmest day for the next week, with highs in the 60s. Around Buffalo, temperatures have an 80 percent chance to exceed 75 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High pressure will remain the dominant feature this weekend, deflecting weather systems into southern Canada. Temperatures today will recover back into the 50s after starting in the 20s across the state. The ridge will bring even warmer temperatures on Saturday, with highs west of the divide around 60 degrees, while areas across central WY reach well into the 60s. Gusty southwest winds reaching 30 mph will sweep from Rock Springs northeast across Casper into northeast Wyoming. These warmer winds will bring even warmer temperatures across Johnson County Saturday, with highs well into the 70s. A weak cold front is dragged southward late Saturday from a weather system crossing southern Canada. This will bring light north winds back into central WY, bringing high temps back down into the 50s for Sunday. The next weather impact into next week depends on placement of the trough dropping down the West Coast. Moisture wrapping around the bottom of the trough may feed into southwest WY for the latter half of the week, bringing a chance for showers. Currently models have been leaning away from any significant rainfall, and have been delaying the initial arrival of the moisture farther into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1111 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected across all sites through the entire TAF period as clear skies and dry conditions prevail, with light winds for most sites. The exceptions being KCPR, where gusts may push 20-25kts for the entire period, and gusts up to 25kts for KCOD after midday Saturday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Wittmann DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Gerhardt/Zaprzalka  837 FXUS61 KALY 161852 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC expanded the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) slightly further north to include all of the eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, south- central Taconics, the southern reaches of the Capital District, south- central Berkshires and Litchfield County, CT. The Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) includes the rest of the forecast area, except the southern Adirondacks and most of the Glens Fall Lake George Region. Retooled hourly PoPs and weather late this pm into tonight with the timing of the front with a transition to some snow showers/flurries over the higher terrain including the western Dacks, southern Greens and northern Catskills. Also blended in some NBM90 wind gusts tomorrow afternoon with brisk west/northwest to northwest winds tonight through Saturday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, showers, and a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into early tonight. 2) Continued gusty winds and unseasonably chilly conditions are expected tonight through Saturday. A coating to a few tenths of an inch of snow are possible in the high terrain late tonight into Saturday morning. 3) Dry weather with temperatures moderating to near seasonable levels late Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 252 pm EDT...A strong cold front continues to approach from west- central NY and PA this afternoon, as low pressure moves towards southern Quebec. A strong positively-tilted trough mid and upper level associated with the system is moving across the eastern Great Lakes Region and the Midwest. Pre-frontal showers continue across the southern Adirondacks and w-central Mohawk Valley. Some breaks in the clouds occurred across the Capital District/Schoharie Valley earlier but stratus has increased again across most of the region. A high shear-low CAPE environment is setting up from the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region/Berkshires south and east. SPC has most of the forecast area in Marginal (Level 1 of 5) or Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) due to some low-topped convection potentially forming that may bring some isolated damaging wind gusts to the southern portion of the forecast area. The latest HREFS/REFS has limited mean SBCAPEs of 100-250 J/kg south of the Capital District over the mid Hudson Valley, southeast Catskills, southern Taconics, and NW CT. The 0-6 km bulk shear increases 40-60+ KT. The CAMs soundings from the 3-km HRRR/ARW-WRF show 800 hPA winds increasing to 45-50 KT with the low to mid level winds very strong. A broken line or strongly- forced line of convection is possible on some of the CAMs with the threat looking the greatest from about Hudson, NY to the I-84 corridor. The question will be if any updrafts will be tall enough to tap into these winds aloft and translate them to the sfc. At the very least, we could be looking at some gusty showers with a rumble of thunder with gusts 30-50 mph which could blow around loosely unsecured objects, and bring down some foliated large tree limbs. The the threat window looks like 3-7 pm before the showers and possibly some embedded strong/potentially severe thunderstorms move east of most of the forecast area with the front. KEY MESSAGE 2... Tonight, in the wake of the cold front brisk/blustery conditions occur, as west/northwest winds 10-20 mph shift to the northwest with the cold advection. Some gusts 25-35 mph will likely occur with a few isolated gusts around 40 mph funneling down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital Region, northern Taconics and the Berkshires. Some gusty winds are also possible over the northern/eastern Catskills. In the wake of the front with the mid and upper trough approaching, some upslope rain to snow showers will occur over the western Dacks and southern Greens. Some light snow accums of a coating to a few tenths of inch may occur. Some light snow showers/flurries could occur over the northern Catskills, northern Taconics and Berkshires due to upslope and lake enhanced showers. The low-level flow quickly veers to the northwest with some multi-bands of lake effect potentially grazing the northern and eastern Catskills Saturday morning. Latest NAEFS indicate H850 temp anomalies will be 1 to 2 STDEVs below normal. The actual H850 temps fall to -6C to -9C from Albany north and west into the Adirondacks to 0C to -6C readings south and east towards the I-84 corridor by daybreak Saturday. Temps will fall quickly with widespread lows in the 30s to lower 40s with some upper 20s over the south/southwest Adirondacks and southern Greens. Wind chill temps or "feels-like" temps when combining the winds with the air temps will be in the teens to mid/upper 20s over the higher terrain with mainly 30s in the valleys with some mid/upper 20s in the western Mohawk Valley. It will feel like early Winter. Upslope and lake effect snow showers/flurries or sprinkles will end in the late morning with the subsidence inversion lowering. The brisk northwest winds will continue with chilly temps with daytime highs only in the 40s in the valleys with a few readings near 50F in the Hudson Valley and 30s to lower 40s over the hills and mtns. The winds will persist from the northwest at 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph due to the sfc pressure gradient and some deeper mixing. We increased gusts slightly blending in the latest NBM 90th percentile. The latest NBM 24-hr probs for gusts >35 mph are low from 2 am Sat to 2 am Sun, as they are only 20-40% over the northern Taconics/northern Berkshires and eastern Catskills. Gusts > 40 mph are less than 15%, so no Wind Advisories expected. Wind Chills/"Feels-like" temps will continue in the 20s and 30s for much of the day. The winds subside fairly quickly Saturday night with the sfc high building in from the Ohio Valley over PA and NY. Lows fall into the 20s to around 30F. The growing season is over, but a widespread frost will occur across the region. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure will be overhead and nearby NY and New England to close the weekend with temps rebounding after a cold start into the mid/upper 40s to mid 50s across eastern NY and western New England with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Another chilly night is expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, but temps moderate to seasonal levels in the 50s to around 60F on Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies. Dry weather and seasonable temps continue through the mid week, as we monitor a potential nor'easter near the Mid Atlantic Coast during the mid week (Tue- Wed time frame). && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z/Saturday...Conditions vary amongst the terminals this afternoon as visible satellite shows some breaks in a largely MVFR stratus deck, forcing isolated VFR conditions, with some scattered IFR heights throughout the region. Latest scans of the ENX radar indicate the significant breaking apart of what was formerly a pre-cold frontal rainband with little threat to impact any of the terminal domains within the next couple of hours. Winds are somewhat variable (southeast to southwest directions) ahead of the incoming cold front, with sustained speeds ranging from about 3 to 11 kt with occasional gusts between 20 to 30 kt at ALB and PSF. While eastward-translating breaks in cloud coverage could allow for additional, brief improvements in ceiling heights over the next couple of hours, the further encroachment of the cold front should reinforce the holes and force the return to consistent MVFR and possible IFR conditions. Additional batches of showers closer accompanying the cold front are beginning to fill into central New York and could impact terminals between 19-00z this afternoon and evening. However, because of the latest trends in the guidance and radar scans, confidence has become lower in the occurrence of showers at ALB, POU, and PSF. These sites were therefore given PROB30s to account for the potential of additional showers while GFL has a TEMPO given enough confidence in brief showers given their proximity to the eastern-most Great Lake. Once the cold front rips through this afternoon and this evening, fairly swift improvements to VFR ceiling heights are expected for all except PSF which could hang on to an MVFR ceiling longer into the overnight. Winds will also become very breezy behind the front, taking on a westerly and then northwesterly direction, with sustained speeds reaching 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt by the end of the 18z cycle. Outlook... Saturday Night to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...12  857 FXUS63 KGRR 161852 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and wind decrease tonight - Frost and freeze conditions tonight - Dry weather expected this weekend into this upcoming week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Rain and wind decrease tonight Rain and wind both decrease as we move through tonight. There is a definite diurnal component to the rain and we see in the models a distinct downward trend in both intensity and areal extent between 800pm and 1100pm. Mainly dry weather is expected from 1100pm on. As for the wind, the peak in the wind will occur this afternoon and evening with a noted downward trend in gustiness after 1100pm. Wind gusts through the evening will reach 20-30 mph with a few higher gusts. After midnight especially winds will decrease considerably. - Frost and freeze conditions tonight We have gone ahead and issued a Frost Advisory for our southern 2 rows of counties, essentially from Holland to Lansing to the south. To the north of there we have issued a Freeze Warning. The exception is the U.S. 10 row of counties where the growing season has ended due to earlier freezes. We are looking at temperatures tonight ranging from the upper 20s north in Central Lower Michigan to the lower 30s in the south towards I-94. Frost and freeze potential may occur in spots again Saturday night. The best chances will be across our southern CWA where there will be less wind. - Dry weather expected this weekend into this upcoming week High pressure will dominate the area weather both at the surface and aloft from this weekend through the upcoming work week. Ensemble members of the GFS and the ECWMF are entirely dry during this time frame which leads to a high confidence dry forecast. High temperatures will rebound from the 50s this weekend to the 60s next week. The normal high for today in Grand Rapids for reference is 61. We will have below normal temperatures this weekend moderating to slightly above normal next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Northwest winds pick up this afternoon with gusts around 25 to 30 knots. Showers continue before tapering off around 21Z to 00Z this evening. Some brief reductions to MVFR visibltiites are possible with heavier showers. Ceilings will bounce between MVFR and VFR until 00Z. MVFR ceilings will range around 1500 to 2500 feet. After 00Z we'll see clearing overnight into Saturday with winds becoming lighter from 03Z to 09Z Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Winds on Lake Michigan are just beginning to reach the peak phase, which is between 200pm and 100am. The actual peak will occur late this afternoon and evening between roughly 400pm and 800pm. We have had winds reach gale force already, but the more sustained gale is just now commencing. Waves have pushed towards 10 feet in our nearshore area, but should exceed 10 feet as we move forward into the evening hours. Bottom line, the Gale Warning looks good. Southwest flow ramps up on Saturday and from Saturday late afternoon into Sunday we are looking at another wind/wave event. At this point it looks like a Small Craft Advisory event, but it may be borderline gale in our northern zones. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ064>067-071>074. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...RAH MARINE...Duke  027 FXUS63 KILX 161857 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 157 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight along and west of a Lacon...to Lincoln...to Taylorville line. - Frost will be likely across all of central and southeast Illinois Saturday night as winds become nearly calm. Sensitive outdoor plants need to be protected this weekend in order to avoid damage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 18z/1pm surface analysis shows a 998mb low over southern Quebec with a cold front extending southward to the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile a sprawling 1046 high is building into the Plains. The pressure gradient between the departing front and the approaching high has resulted in strong/gusty northwesterly winds across central Illinois today. The latest regional observations continue to indicate gusts of 25-30mph and these will continue for the next few hours before gradually beginning to diminish toward sunset. Ample cloud cover blankets the region as a trough axis drops southward out of Wisconsin/Michigan. Once the trough sinks south of central Illinois, synoptic subsidence on its back side will allow skies to at least partially clear by mid to late evening...followed by clear skies across nearly the entire KILX CWA overnight. The exception will be along and east of a Danville to Casey line where a persistent lake-effect band will result in continued partly to mostly cloudy conditions through dawn Saturday. While skies will become clear elsewhere, winds will remain in the 10-15mph range through the evening. As the pressure gradient continues to loosen, winds will eventually drop below 10mph and may become light/variable across the Illinois River Valley toward daybreak. With lows dropping into the lower to middle 30s and overnight winds diminishing, have opted to continue the Frost Advisory for locations along/west of a Lacon...to Lincoln...to Taylorville line. High pressure will build overhead on Saturday, resulting in sunny skies and light winds with chilly highs in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. While winds will be calm Saturday evening, a light S/SE return flow will develop across the western half of the CWA overnight as the high slowly shifts eastward into the Ohio River Valley. With clear skies and very light winds, it appears Saturday night will feature a better shot at widespread frost across all of central and southeast Illinois. A Frost Advisory will likely be needed. After that, the rest of the 7-day forecast looks quiet as upper ridging builds over the Midwest. While an occasional weak short-wave trough may temporarily impede the process and bring a few clouds and perhaps even a light shower, the overall pattern is decidedly warmer and drier. Highs will start out near seasonal normals in the middle to upper 60s on Sunday...then will approach 80 degrees by next Wednesday-Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR ceilings and scattered showers continue to drop southeastward across central Illinois early this afternoon. Satellite trends and HRRR/RAP data suggest the showers will sink south of the terminals by 22z-23z, followed by ceilings rising to VFR by sunset. The clouds will then scatter, resulting in clear skies across the board overnight into Saturday morning. Northwesterly winds will gust 20-25kt through the afternoon, then will begin to decrease from west to east across the area this evening. Wind speeds will drop below 10kt along/west of I-55 overnight, but will remain around 10kt further east at KDEC/KCMI. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031- 036-037-040>042-047>052. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Barnes DISCUSSION...Barnes AVIATION...Barnes  507 FXUS64 KMOB 161802 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 102 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Strong wind gusts expected to pose an enhanced threat for additional numerous downed trees and power outages over portions of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area on Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires. - Dangerous marine conditions developing Friday night through the weekend due to strong winds and high seas. In addition, a High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Monitoring the potential for fog development tonight across the area as low level moisture gradually increases and winds become light. This will favor fog, some potentially dense in some areas especially across coastal Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle where moisture will be greatest. At this time, it appears that limited coverage will preclude the need for a dense fog advisory. A potent upper level trough will dive southeast across the Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys tonight and Friday then off of the Southeast U.S. coast by Friday night. This will drive a strong cold front across the region later this afternoon and tonight. Moisture advection in advance of this front should remain limited, but may be enough along with lift along the front to produce a few showers today along the coast. Most areas should remain dry with the frontal passage. Another potentially high impact weather situation is likely to develop behind a strong cold front that will move through the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening. Behind the front, strong cold air advection and mixing will support the development of strong northerly wind gusts later Friday night through Saturday. This raises concerns especially across areas that experienced significant damage across portions of the western Florida Panhandle into interior portions of southwest Alabama. Latest short-term high resolution model guidance is suggesting the potential for several hours of wind gusts approaching 40 mph late Friday night into Saturday morning. The strength of these winds will have the potential to down numerous additional trees that were damaged by the extreme wind event associated with the sting jet on the west side of Hurricane Isaias. This would likely result in additional power outages in the hardest hit areas. We plan to issue a wind advisory this evening and add special wording to account for this threat. Temperatures will drop significantly behind the front with high temperatures over the weekend only recovering into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows in the middle to upper 40s over interior areas to the lower 50s near the coast. Upper level ridging will rebuild into the forecast area early next week with dry weather and slowly moderating temperatures anticipated through next week. /JLH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening hours may cause brief reductions in ceilings an visibilities over portions of the coastal counties. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions through the period. The main impact to operations over the next 24 hours will be a strong cold front moving through the area this evening. Winds will increase rapidly out of the north (around 00Z-02Z for the TAF sites) to around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Low-level wind shear may also become a concern by Saturday morning with 0-2000 ft shear potentially reaching 25-30 knots, but just below threshold at thistime. Gusty north winds will continue through the end of the period. JGC/98 && .MARINE... Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds are forecast for tonight as a strong cold front passes over area waters. A Gale warning is now in effect for all coastal waters tonight and Saturday, continuing through Saturday night well offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is likely for protected waters Saturday night as northerly winds begin to gradually ease. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the offshore waters Sunday through Monday, with Small Craft Exercise Caution in the bays and sounds. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 53 70 51 70 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 56 71 54 70 / 10 0 0 0 Destin 58 72 56 71 / 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 50 69 47 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 49 69 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 50 67 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 54 70 50 68 / 10 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060-261>266. FL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206. MS...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ078-079. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>636. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$  856 FXUS65 KBYZ 161852 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1252 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and drier conditions into next week. - Breezy conditions along the foothills west of Billings, tonight into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday... As upper level ridging builds in through Saturday, conditions will remain warm and dry with above average temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Ahead of a dry cold front anticipated Saturday night, a modest pressure gradient over the Absaroka-Bearthooths and 30-40kts winds aloft will create windy conditions across the foothills west of Billings (Nye, Livingston, Big Timber). Strongest winds are likely to occur Saturday morning into the early afternoon with gusts 40-50 mph expected, with about a 20% chance for gusts to 60 mph. The cold front Saturday night is not expected to bring much wind with it, just cooler temperatures for Sunday with highs in the 55-65 degree range. Temperatures are expected to increase back into the upper 60s/low 70s for Monday and Tuesday as heights build back in ahead of troughing over the west coast. There is still uncertainty on the track of this low for the latter half of the week, but moderate chances at southwest flow Tuesday is giving the higher terrain across south-central MT low chances for precipitation. TS .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Westerly winds increase across the western foothills after 6 PM this evening (especially KLVM). Expect overnight maximum wind gusts in the 30-40 kt range. Southerly winds will be draining out of the Bighorn Basin bringing winds gusting up to 30 kts to locations such as Joliet and Laurel. Winds are expected to slowly decrease throughout the day Saturday for all locations. Most of the aforementioned locations are expected to gust into the 25-35 kt range Saturday afternoon. Torgerson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 046/074 041/062 037/067 042/069 042/063 042/066 045/058 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/B 45/W LVM 040/073 037/062 036/070 040/068 039/063 039/065 039/053 00/N 00/U 00/U 01/B 21/B 12/W 56/W HDN 032/075 035/066 034/070 036/070 038/065 039/069 042/060 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 45/W MLS 035/072 040/062 040/068 042/069 042/063 044/069 046/060 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 34/W 4BQ 038/076 042/063 041/068 045/071 044/066 047/072 050/062 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 34/W BHK 039/075 041/064 038/066 040/071 041/066 042/071 045/065 00/U 00/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 11/U 34/W SHR 035/077 037/064 035/068 038/070 040/066 041/069 042/059 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 46/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  450 FXUS65 KCYS 161801 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1201 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A high wind watch was issued for the wind prone areas Saturday for gusts potentially up to 60 mph. - Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 306 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 There are a few clouds over the Nebraska Panhandle that prevented temperatures from plummeting over night compared to the regions along and west of I-25 in Southeast Wyoming. It's a little uncertain if there is enough time left for the Panhandle to cool down enough overnight to justify the freeze warning but that region was left in just in case. Otherwise almost all of Southeast Wyoming minus Goshen County is 30 degrees or below already at 2am. With the snow pack being "fresh" but relatively thin it was a challenge to determine how low to drop the temperatures west of the I-25 corridor. A blend of HRRR, NBM, and Canadian was used for temperatures west of I25 and a blend of HRRR and NBM was used for areas east of I-25 and into the Panhandle. Looking at the ensembles GEFS was the highest for the overnight temperature at KLAR at 25 degrees and the Canadian Ensemble was the lowest at 16 degrees but the canadian does have a history of capturing those colder events the best. The Euro ENS was in the middle at around 19F so the overall overnight temperature for Laramie stayed around there. This afternoon the upper level ridging will help advect in some warmer air to help rebound the afternoon temperatures into the 50's for a nice seasonable day in our forecast area. The hourly trend for temperatures is probably the hardest part to try to forecast correctly since half the forecast area had a slight snowpack to help really cool things down overnight and the over half is still relatively bare ground since almost all the precipitation came down as rain 24-36 hours ago. But otherwise this ridge will keep the skies relatively clear and temperatures relatively seasonable as the cold air moves off into the east. Tonight into Saturday morning things get a little more interesting as an area of high pressure starts to briefly develop over the Northwest corner of Colorado. This bubble of high pressure looks to tighten our pressure gradient across Southeast Wyoming to give us another taste of a Wyoming winter. **enter GOT meme of Ned Stark here** A high wind watch was issued for I-80 corridor near Arlington and I-25 Bordeaux at 6am (12z) through 7pm (01z) for wind gusts up to 60 mph. With this being a primarily a gradient driven event its kind of hard to gauge the timing however the Craig to Casper 850mb gradient exceeds 50m around 12z and drops below 50m around 18z. But there are some blips of increased intensity at the 700mb level past 18z so the watch ends at 01z around the time the sun goes down and the 700mb jets really drops off. Also, without the definitive support of the 700mb jet it also makes it a little difficult to forecast definitive high wind intensity but this is also where pattern recognition from local forecasters really kicks in as opposed to forecasters sitting in office on the east coast forecasting at a national level. There's a higher level of confidence in the winds being between 50 and 60 mph with this event in our wind prones then generally saying the winds will definitely exceed 58 mph as implied with a High wind warning. Our in-house wind model also depicts momentary blips of high wind speeds giving more confidence into the 50 to 60 mph scenario for Saturday morning and afternoon thus supporting a watch issuance than a warning. Winds were also increased from the NBM as they were a little low but the NBM did at least capture a slight uptick inthe winds compared to surrounding area. Finally, the last piece of evidence in the elevated winds forecast came from the Omega fields of the Global models. Looking at this field there is a slight mountain wave feature with the rising and sinking motion of the atmosphere. While its not the strongest sinking and rising motion typically seen in our winter high wind events, the signal was still there and even weak mountain waves have been known to produce wind gusts strong enough to produce winds exceeding 55mph. Temperatures will drop once again Saturday night but with the 700mb temps staying around 6c surface temperatures should stay around the mid 30's and 40's overnight. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The long term will be mostly controlled by high pressure ridging, though several embedded disturbances will help to disrupt this feature from growing stronger and brining much warmer conditions, while modest moisture should bring at least a weak chance of precipitation through this period. The long term starts with upper level high pressure controlling much of the southeastern US and extending up towards our region, while a weak low off of the southwestern California coastline moves inland and up towards the Four Corners region while continuing to weaken. This system, while weak and mostly non-impactful, will at least help to stave off the ridge from strengthening over the region while also bringing a quick and weak shot of moisture that should fuel a few weak upper elevation showers in the region. We will be clearing out on Monday again before flow turns more southerly to southwesterly on Tuesday as a deep Pacific low begins to approach the west coast and then moves inland through the end of the forecast period. This will continue to stream moisture in, allowing for further increasing chances of upslope induced precipitation that will be aided by embedded weak shortwaves within the flow, though once again not expecting significant accumulations from this activity. Under this pattern look for temperatures to remain largely the same through the long term as highs sit generally 5-10 degrees above normal (60's to upper 70's), with portions of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle nearing 80 degrees, but currently not expected to reach this warm. Otherwise, with no significant features present over our area, look for largely benign conditions until likely just beyond the long term into the weekend after next. There is overall moderate to high confidence in the forecast as ensembles and their clusters are largely similar in their expectations of the evolution of this pattern, though discrepancies begin to arise on how quickly the Pacific low at the end of the forecast will move inland, but this shouldn't create drastic changes at least to this forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1159 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions and SKC expected over the next 24 hours. Main concerns would be gusty winds this evening and into the nighttime hours, primarily impacting WY terminals and KCDR with gusts between 20-30 knots from a southerly to southwesterly direction. Otherwise prevailing winds 10 knots or less. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for WYZ106-110. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...CG  377 FXUS65 KPIH 161842 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1242 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon highs gradually warm over the next several days. - Dry conditions continue through the weekend. - Wetter and cooler conditions return by mid-week next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A beautiful fall weekend is in store for East Idaho as daytime temperatures inch slightly warmer under the influence of high pressure. By Sunday, afternoon highs will reach the 60s across most lower elevations, ranging from right around 60 degrees in the northern portions of the Snake Plain to near 70 degrees across the Eastern Magic Valley and Raft River regions. Overnight lows will continue to drop into the 30s for most . Early next week, the upper-level pattern begins to shift as a strong low pressure system tracks south along the West Coast. Although deterministic guidance like the GFS shows the low swinging further offshore before dropping into the Desert Southwest in a split-flow setup, ensemble means still track the center close enough to the coast to maintain light precipitation chances across our area through the day Tuesday. Main moisture transport increases by mid-to-late week, with precipitation chances ramping up Wednesday night through Friday. Considerable forecast uncertainty remains late in the week regarding total precipitation amounts and timing. Ensemble clusters continue to differ on the depth and structural evolution of the southern closed low as it begins to open up and eject eastward. While the National Blend of Models (NBM) reflects a downward trend in QPF amounts heading into mid-week, widespread precipitation chances remain 30% to 45% through Wednesday, increasing to 50% to 70% Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1124 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions forecast under high pressure with light winds (outside of winds to around 10 kts today at KSUN) and mostly clear skies. Expect some high-level clouds to move in late tonight/overnight before skies clear again early Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Warming temperatures and very dry conditions will continue through at least the weekend thanks to high pressure overhead. Highs will warm into at least the 60s if not pushing towards 70 degrees in the lower elevations, especially in the eastern Magic Valley. Today and tomorrow look to be the driest days as far as min RHs go, around 12 to 20 percent in the Central Mountains and part of FWZ 422. Elsewhere, min RHs will range from 25 to 35 percent. Look for another system to bring cooler, wetter conditions back to the area next week. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMH AVIATION...Cropp FIRE WEATHER...AMM  342 FXUS66 KSTO 161841 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1141 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire at 10 AM this morning, as the strongest winds have passed. Locally gusty east winds still possible, along with very low humidity values. - Elevated Fire Weather Conditions continue in the Sierra and adjacent foothills, portions of the Sacramento Valley through Saturday. - Dry and warm weather with gusty east-northeast Sierra winds through the end of the week. - Gradual cool down begins this weekend with renewed precipitation chances early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Rest of Today... Mostly clear skies observed across interior NorCal on this Friday morning. Light winds in the Valley and clear skies helping temperatures begin to climb into the mid 70s to low 80s. Humidity values already reading in the single digits at several locations in the foothills/mountains, with low teens to mid 20s in the Valley. North winds will continue across the Valley, with some gusts up to 20 to 30 mph, and the very dry conditions we are observing will continue to allow elevated fire weather conditions to persist today and Saturday across the Valley, especially along and west of the I-5 corridor. Elevated fire weather conditions will also continue in the mountains and foothills, aided by the very poor overnight recoveries and downslope (east) wind gusts. High pressure to the north will continue to translate eastward through the rest of the day, which will eventually allow for gradually weakening winds as we move into the evening and overnight hours. ...Saturday and Sunday... Ridge moves further east, low pressure in SoCal will start to influence the weather across our area. First sensible impacts will be slightly cooler high temperatures and weaker winds, though dry conditions will continue to linger around with only slightly improved daytime humidity values. NorCal will see better relief from the heat and poor RH values Sunday as SoCal low pressure weakens, and a PacNW trough begins to dig south. High temperatures will fall into the low 80s on Sunday as onshore flow will return to the area. ...Early Next Week - Mid Week... Ensembles have come into better agreement lately with a closed low forming off the coast by Monday/Tuesday. Resultant high temperatures will plummet into upper 60s to mid 70s across interior NorCal, with northern Sacramento Valley locations possibly not breaking the 70 degree mark on Monday. Precipitation chances will enter the forecast on Tuesday; however how much rain Valley sites will receive depends on track and available moisture. NBM keeps light shower chances in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday with best chances in the Delta, foothills, and mountains at this time. Latest runs have also kept snow in the forecast, with slight changes to location of the "heavier" snow totals. South of HWY-50 stands the best chances for snow totals greater than 4 inches at this time and at mostly peaks, as snow levels are currently forecast to be generally above 8000 feet. We can again say a pattern change is on the horizon, however precipitation totals and any convection still remain uncertain. && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Valley TAF sites will see surface wind gusts generally below 12 knots. Mountain sites will see easing wind gusts through roughly 01z Saturday with gusts up to 12 knots, then a short-duration increase with surface wind gusts up to 20 knots from 02z through 08z Saturday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$  586 FXUS61 KALY 161804 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 204 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk slightly northward to encompass the Mohawk Valley, all of the Capital Region and most of southern VT. The Slight Risk area has been slightly expanded north to include portions of Greene/Columbia counties. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, showers, and a few thunderstorms to the region today. Continued gusty and unseasonably chilly conditions are expected tonight into Saturday. A coating of snow is possible in the high terrain late tonight into Saturday morning. 2) Dry weather with temperatures moderating to near seasonable levels Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong cold front will approach from the west today as low pressure tracks into the St. Lawrence River Valley. For early this morning, a warm front will approach from the southwest with bands of rain passing through ahead of the front at the leading edge of a strengthening low level jet. Strong forcing and some elevated instability will allow for some locally heavy downpours and rumbles of thunder to occur toward and shortly after daybreak, especially across the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks, Capital/Saratoga and Lake George Region into southern VT. Rainfall rates of 0.25-0.50"/hour could lead to some ponding of water in poor drainage areas for the morning commute in these areas. As the low level jet translates overhead around and shortly after daybreak, strong south to southeast winds will be possible across portions of the Capital Region and within some north/south oriented valleys. Latest REFs suggest some gusts of 30-40 mph could occur in these areas through mid morning before decreasing as the core of the low level jet passes by and weakens. As the cold front approaches from the west during the afternoon hours, some surface-based destabilization should occur, especially if some breaks of sun can develop. Latest HREFs and REFs suggest SB CAPES of 100-250 J/kg developing for areas mainly south of I-90. Strengthening mid level winds will allow 0-6 km shear to increase to 50-60 KT amid this instability, parallel to the incoming front. This suggests the possibility of a low topped line of showers/thunderstorms to develop which could produce a few instances of damaging wind gusts. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms northward, now encompassing much of the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and southern VT, with the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) expanding just slightly north into portions of Greene/Columbia counties. Even in the absence of convection, as the front passes through, some brief wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible this evening. In the wake of the front, blustery conditions will develop tonight and continue into Saturday with northwest winds gusting 25-35 mph, perhaps a bit stronger Saturday morning as mixing deepens. Some lingering moisture in the wake of the front, partially from Lake Effect, will allow for some snow showers across higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT late tonight into Saturday morning, where some coatings to less than one half inch of snow accumulation will be possible. A few flurries/sprinkles could even occur across the eastern Catskills, the Berkshires, and at lower elevations such as the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region Saturday morning. High temperatures Saturday should only reach the 30s to lower 40s across higher elevations, with mainly 40s for valley regions. Combined with brisk winds, wind chill temperatures ("feels-like" temperatures) will be in the 20s/lower 30s for higher terrain, and 30s in valleys through much of theday. KEY MESSAGE 2... After an unseasonably cold morning Sunday with low temps mainly in the 20s, temperatures should moderate into the 50s for most areas by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to moderate to seasonable levels early next week with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s in valleys. Generally dry conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z/Saturday...Conditions vary amongst the terminals this afternoon as visible satellite shows some breaks in a largely MVFR stratus deck, forcing isolated VFR conditions, with some scattered IFR heights throughout the region. Latest scans of the ENX radar indicate the significant breaking apart of what was formerly a pre-cold frontal rainband with little threat to impact any of the terminal domains within the next couple of hours. Winds are somewhat variable (southeast to southwest directions) ahead of the incoming cold front, with sustained speeds ranging from about 3 to 11 kt with occasional gusts between 20 to 30 kt at ALB and PSF. While eastward-translating breaks in cloud coverage could allow for additional, brief improvements in ceiling heights over the next couple of hours, the further encroachment of the cold front should reinforce the holes and force the return to consistent MVFR and possible IFR conditions. Additional batches of showers closer accompanying the cold front are beginning to fill into central New York and could impact terminals between 19-00z this afternoon and evening. However, because of the latest trends in the guidance and radar scans, confidence has become lower in the occurrence of showers at ALB, POU, and PSF. These sites were therefore given PROB30s to account for the potential of additional showers while GFL has a TEMPO given enough confidence in brief showers given their proximity to the eastern-most Great Lake. Once the cold front rips through this afternoon and this evening, fairly swift improvements to VFR ceiling heights are expected for all except PSF which could hang on to an MVFR ceiling longer into the overnight. Winds will also become very breezy behind the front, taking on a westerly and then northwesterly direction, with sustained speeds reaching 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt by the end of the 18z cycle. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24/35 AVIATION...12  716 FXUS61 KBOX 161807 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 207 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Gale Watches have been replaced with Small Craft Advisories for the applicable waters, excluding the outermost zones where Small Craft Advisories are not issued. Post-frontal NNW winds are expected to gust 25-35 kt Saturday, with occasional gusts approaching gale force possible, especially across the southern and southeastern outer waters Saturday night into early Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning showers exit, followed by a brief lull this afternoon before a cold front brings additional showers and thunderstorms this evening. A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. - A few showers may linger along the southern coast early Saturday. Otherwise, drier and noticeably colder conditions are expected Saturday. - Dry with a modest warmup through mid next week, but monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid-Atlantic waters which could bring periods of light rain, enhanced northeast winds and building waves/possible erosion to southeast New England. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Morning showers exit, followed by a brief lull this afternoon before a cold front brings additional showers and thunderstorms this evening. A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. As anticipated, gloomy conditions to wrap up the workweek. Earlier this morning, a warm front lifted through southern New England, bringing the first round of showers. The region is now positioned within the warm sector. Dew points are increasing into the lower 60s along the coast, while interior locations remain in the 50s. However, by midafternoon, anticipate temperatures and dew points continuing to climb into the 60s. Increasing dew points could lead to pockets of instability. High-resolution guidance suggests limited surface-based CAPE; however, as we've previously mentioned, the jet dynamics associated with the approaching cold front are impressive. A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is developing across western New York and extending southwest into Ohio. This activity is associated with our cold front, which is marching eastward, aided by a fairly robust mid-level trough. Ahead of the trough, SSW flow allows for WAA, supporting mild afternoon temperatures despite the clouds and rain. Highs should reach the middle 60s across northern areas, while upper 60s to near 70 degrees are possible farther south. Today is not anticipated to be a high-end severe weather day by any stretch of the imagination; however, it is a day we cannot completely ignore. Instability remains limited, generally 100-300 J/kg of MUCAPE, though strong bulk shear may compensate for the limited instability and support a few stronger storms. Over the last 24 hours, the greatest shear has shifted a bit farther south, favoring areas around NYC and points southwest. Nevertheless, a couple of stronger storms remain possible. Feel as though these storms could produce sub-severe wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, with a much lower chance of severe gusts exceeding 60 mph. CAMs continue to indicate that the greatest potential for thunderstorms across southern New England will be between 5 PM and 11 PM as the cold front progresses from west to east. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches are expected. KEY MESSAGE 2...A few showers may linger along the southern coast early Saturday. Otherwise, drier and noticeably colder conditions are expected Saturday. Heading into the overnight hours, the area of low pressure associated with the cold front tracks northeast through the Saint Lawrence Valley as broad high pressure expands across the Great Plains. The surface low deepens tobelow 990 mb, with some guidance suggesting it could reach 985 mb by Saturday afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient supports gusty NNW winds at the surface, while northerly flow strengthens aloft. Meanwhile, 850 mb temperatures fall to between -6C and -4C, a rather significant drop considering values were between +15C and +17C Friday afternoon. While the majority of precipitation should exit with the cold front, some guidance suggests the potential for an anafrontal wave to develop along the departing boundary early Saturday. This could allow showers to linger across the southern coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands into Saturday morning. Highs Saturday afternoon are not anticipated to be much warmer than the lower 50s across the coastal plain and middle to upper 40s farther inland. However, with gusty winds, apparent temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees colder than the actual air temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry with a modest warmup through mid next week, but monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid-Atlantic waters which could bring periods of light rain, enhanced northeast winds and building waves/possible erosion to southeast New England. Expansive area of high pressure will maintain itself over most or much of Southern New England through midweek and potentially longer as it becomes reinforced by another strong high pressure coming out of the northern Canadian Prairie region by midweek. This will at least drive dry weather and a gradual warming trend away from the southeast coast with pretty strong diurnal temperature ranges (mild days, cool nights). These conditions could linger into much of the upcoming workweek, away from the southeast coast. However we continue to monitor coastal storminess depicted across the NWP and ensemble suite near the mid-Atlantic waters Sunday. There seem to be an increasing number of model guidance which brings a portion of this feature's moisture northward or northeastward into a weakness in the above surface ridge at some point Monday into Wednesday, mainly impacting the coastal plain and southeast New England. Exactly when and/or for how long it rains is still quite a bit unclear as the rain will be moving into a very dry ridge and should create a sharp NW to SE gradient in rain, but it doesn't look to be a soaking rain in looking at ensemble QPF probabilities. The bigger potential issue is mainly for the southern waters/coastlines with respect to increasingly gusty ENE winds and building rough seas which could lead to beach erosion for east- or northeast-facing beaches. With a persistent easterly fetch over several days, it's a conduit for building waves and latest significant wave heights are in the 12-15 ft range south and east of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. ECMWF probabilities of gale force gusts have increased into the moderate to high (50-70%) range for Monday into Tuesday, while the GFS is more tempered at around 30-50%, with lower probabilities for the northeast waters. It may also turn breezy over the land as well with gusts up to 30 mph at times. We'll re-evaluate the risk for coastal flooding given several tidal cycles, but astro tides are decreasing through midweek, which should mitigate significant issues. So as it looks right now, there appears to be a growing risk for at least impacts to mariners, including potential gale force gusts that could warrant headlines in the coming days as well as rough seas. Some risk for rains would exist as well for southeast New England, but at the moment rainfall doesn't look particularly significant or substantial at this point. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update...This afternoon into this evening...Moderate confidence. IFR to localized LIFR conditions dominated the region at mid afternoon. There were still a few showers across RI/southeast MA...but otherwise most of the region was in a lull with just areas of drizzle and fog. Main concern is between 22z and 02z as a cluster showers and potentially embedded t-storms sweeps across the region. Greatest risk for thunder will be across CT/RI/SE MA...but that is possible across the rest of the region as well. Brief localized strong wind gusts/heavy rainfall may accompany this cluster of showers even if there is not any lightning. Otherwise...LLWS will continue to be an issue at times into this evening. Overnight into Saturday...High confidence. Conditions should improve to VFR across most areas northwest of I-95 later this evening. Scattered showers will linger well into the overnight hours and even into part of Sat across parts of RI/SE MA...especially across the Cape/Islands allowing lower ceilings lingering a bit in this region. Meanwhile...the rest of the region will see VFR conditions as drier air works into the region. NW winds gusts will increase to between 20 and 30 knots during the day Sat. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Main concern is between 23z and 02z when a cluster of showers with perhaps embedded thunder work across the region. Even if there is not any thunder...brief strong wind gusts are possible with the frontal passage. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Main concern is between 22z and 01z when a cluster of showers with perhaps embedded thunder work across the region. Even if there is not any thunder...brief strong wind gusts are possible with the frontal passage. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ232>235-237- 250. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254>256. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ281>283. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/Dooley AVIATION...Frank MARINE...Loconto/Dooley  606 FXUS61 KOKX 161805 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 205 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Update made to the aviation section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A warm front brings showers early today, with a strong cold front bringing a line of heavier showers and a few strong, to possibly severe thunderstorms briefly during this evening. Any storms have the potential to bring strong, gusty winds. A few isolated damaging winds gusts are possible with any severe storms. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW winds during Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front pushes in from the southwest through the morning and should exit northern and northeastern sections by early afternoon. The rain during the first half of the day will be a result of warm air advection at and just above the 850 mb level. The winds start out from the SE, then turn southerly, before going SW during the afternoon. Some gusty winds at times later today are expected closer to the water across eastern coastal sections. Dewpoints will be rather elevated for this time of year getting well into the 60s in many places, especially further east on a SW flow. If clouds can scatter out enough behind the departing warm front for roughly a 3 hr period or so later in the afternoon then instability would be a bit higher. This will be critical in supplying fuel to any storms attempting to initiate along the cold front late in the day. The region gets into the warm sector for about a 5-6 hr period, but any additional sunshine would lead to a touch more instability which is the question with regard to the convective / severe potential. Long hodographs with low-top convection and mid level lapse rates around 6 C/km may lead to strong gusty winds. If any storms can take advantage of any additional instability then a few isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest of any storms. SPC has placed most of the region in a Slight risk of severe weather, with far northeastern sections in CT in a Marginal risk. Wind is the primarily threat with any storms in the low CAPE / high shear environment. CAM guidance is in excellent agreement with regard to the timing of any convection along the cold front as the guidance is in lock step with regard to the timing of the frontal passage. Which now stands around 22z for far western sections, around 23-0z for the metro, and closer to 02z for far eastern sections. Thus, the front moves very quickly through the area in a span of about 4 hours from west to east. With the passage of the front the rain and any storms will end quickly as the winds switch quickly to the WNW, and more NW later at night. Drier air works in for western portions of the area, but will take longer to get into eastern sections. The upper trough axis lags behind the surface features quite a bit, thus lingering rain and showers is expected east of the metro and for the eastern third of the area towards and after 06z to about 12-13z Saturday morning for far eastern sections. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW to N winds developing towards mid to late Saturday morning and continuing through the afternoon. Winds may gust up to 35 mph in some locations. Thus a dry, blustery and much cooler day despite developing sunshine. Temperatures are only expected to reach the lower and middle 50s during the day. Widespread 30s to around 40 are expected for lows Saturday night. Some far northern sections may get down to freezing. Some temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of the 50s with much lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure settles over the area during the afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front moves through late day into early evening. IFR/MVFR to start, then VFR late afternoon mainly for the city terminals. Line of showers with potential thunderstorms anticipated for most terminals in the 22-00z time frame, except no chance of thunder anticipated for KISP/KGON. Westerly gusts with this line of showers would mostly likely end up 30-40kt. Winds up to this point mainly SW with gusts around 20kt developing in the afternoon. VFR for all by midnight tonight with NW-N winds gusting mostly 20-25kt. Showers expected for KISP/KGON through the overnight hours, but could be possible elsewhere except KSWF through the night. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... IFR could last until around 19z. Timing of flight category changes could be off by 1-2 hours. Thunderstorm threat timing could be off by about an hour. Isolated gusts 40 to 50 kt are possible with any thunderstorm. Chance of MVFR in showers through tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday PM: VFR. N winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Monday: VFR. Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR likely, a chance of MVFR in -shra and a chance of NE wind G25-30kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions ramp up this morning with small craft conditions quickly developing for most waters in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The western LI Sound and NY Harbor may only see a few occasional gusts of 20 to 25 kt today. The cold front passes through this evening with the winds becoming W, then NW late tonight and into Saturday morning. A period of gales remains possible across the ocean waters for the late morning and afternoon on Saturday. Small craft conditions will likely linger for Saturday night before sub advisory conditions return briefly for a good portion of Sunday. Seas however become somewhat elevated towards Monday morning with a prolonged period of small craft seas and gusts hovering near 25 kt at times out over the ocean with the potential for an offshore storm leading to gusty NE winds at times into the mid week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. && $$ AVIATION...JC  705 FXUS62 KRAH 161807 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Slightly increased POPs across eastern areas next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 PM Friday... 1) A cold front moving across central North Carolina tonight will bring light to moderate rain to all locations and sharply colder temperatures for Saturday. 2) Patchy frost possible in the Piedmont Sunday morning and Monday morning, followed by moderating but below-normal temperatures for the workweek. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 PM Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front moving across central North Carolina tonight will bring light to moderate rain to all locations and sharply colder temperatures for Saturday. Although a band of convective showers could bring a brief period of precipitation this evening, a more widespread area of rain will move into central North Carolina late this evening into the overnight hours. Low pressure will develop along the front by Saturday morning, bringing the chance of rain to near 100% from the Triangle east for Saturday morning. The heaviest rain is forecast to occur Saturday morning, but rain will linger east of the Triad into the afternoon. While Thursday night's low temperatures were generally in the 60s, tonight's lows will be slightly colder, ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s. However, it will not be possible to step outside Saturday and not notice the difference in temperatures from today. One or two isolated locations may manage to reach the 60s, but otherwise widespread 50s are forecast for Saturday's highs, with the return of sunshine likely by sunset. KEY MESSAGE 2... Patchy frost possible in the Piedmont Sunday morning and Monday morning, followed by moderating but below-normal temperatures for the workweek. In the wake of Saturday's cold front, a deep shortwave will swing across the region and stall roughly along the Carolina coast through at least the middle of next week. A strong 1034 mb surface high will build eastward across the Midwest, positioning itself adjacent to a coastal low that is expected to develop in response to the upper- level trough. This strong pressure gradient setup will maintain a steady and at times breezy north-northeasterly flow early in the week, along with a gradual increase in low-end rain chances each day, though exact details will depend heavily on the position and movement of the upper low. The airmass behind the front will support overnight lows in the 30s across the Piedmont, with potential for radiational cooling into the lower 30s. However, the tighter pressure gradient should maintain at least light stirring overnight Saturday and Sunday night, while high- level moisture wraps back around the upper low across central and eastern NC. Consequently, while temperatures may warrant a Frost Advisory with some temps in the mid-30s, it remains uncertain whether winds will fully decouple to allow for more widespread impacts. For the remainder of the week, weather impacts will be closely tied to the position of the upper low. The low looks to remain cut off from the primary westerlies and may drift south-southwestward late in the week as ridging attempts to build overtop of it into the central Appalachians. Operational guidance (GFS/ECMWF) remains west of the AI-based counterparts, though all agreeing better with the GEFS mean than the eastern-outlying EPS mean. Thus, confidence in sensible weather impacts remains somewhat low. Expect a gradual moderation in temperatures, though highs will remain below normal, along with increasing cloud cover, particularly over eastern counties. Latest guidance continues to support slight chance PoPs east of US-1 each day, which makes sense based onmodel trends and proximity of the upper low but overall weak forcing. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 125 PM Friday... TAF period: This afternoon, all terminals will have VFR conditions with gusty wind out of the southwest. A pre-frontal band during the late afternoon and evening could bring a round of convective showers to all sites with brief restrictions and stronger wind gusts. The shift to northwest wind with a cold front will occur late this evening at INT/GSO and after midnight at the other terminals, with MVFR ceilings and stratiform rain moving in through the night. It appears that INT/GSO should not drop below MVFR cigs, but RDU/RWI/FAY now all have IFR cigs in their newest forecast. Gusts may slacken slightly overnight, but considering the potency of the cold front, once gusts begin this afternoon, they may continue all the way through the TAF period. Outlook: All sites are likely to have showers and MVFR ceilings come to an end by Saturday evening. A surface low is forecast to develop along the cold front once it reaches the Atlantic Ocean, which could result in several days of intermittent showers at FAY/RWI, although confidence is low as to whether MVFR ceilings would also be present. Northerly wind gusts between 20-30 kt will also be possible each afternoon, with the lowest gusts at INT/GSO and the highest gusts at RWI. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 (as of 2PM RDU has reached 87) KFAY: 90/1925 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/14/2026 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/BLS AVIATION...Green  802 FXUS63 KSGF 161808 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, on Saturday and especially Sunday morning as lows dip into the 30s. - Warming trend back to well above normal temperatures begins early next week, with highs around 80 F expected by Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview: Satellite imagery nicely shows an upper-level trough swinging through the Midwest and Ohio Valleys this afternoon with a prominent cold front draped southward from the parent surface low in southern Quebec. Breezy northwest winds behind this front have been aiding in cold air advection across the Missouri Ozarks. At the surface, a layer of dry air persists with dew point depressions around 15 degrees across the region. At the 850 mb level, greater saturation is allowing a mid-level cloud deck to fill in, with even a few weak echoes being observed on radar. Blustery Fall Day: The cold air advection and cloud deck will prevent much warming today, capping high temperatures in the mid 50s. Furthermore, the increased pressure gradient on the backside of the aforementioned trough is producing frequent wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, making conditions feel a bit blustery--especially compared to the heat as of late. A fairly shallow saturated layer around 900 to 800 mb may allow for a few topographically aided sprinkles across the Ozarks this afternoon, but minimal if any accumulations will come of it. Frost Potential Saturday and Especially Sunday Morning: Clouds will gradually clear from northwest to southeast tonight into Saturday morning. As they do, winds will also begin to weaken. These more favorable conditions for radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s across northwest portions of the forecast area tonight. There may be a brief 1-2 hour window where skies are clear enough, temperatures are cold enough, and winds are light enough that some patchy frost could develop, but overall the better conditions will be across central and northern Missouri. Confidence in frost development is higher Sunday morning thanks to clear skies and light winds. Model probabilities of temperatures 35 deg or less (a proxy for frost potential) are highest across the eastern Ozarks and south-central Missouri, ranging between 60-95%. Here, frost is more likely to be widespread. The footprint of probabilities of temperatures 32 deg or less is smaller--roughly limited to the valleys of the eastern Ozarks--ranging between 30-50%. Elsewhere, patchy frost will still be possible as probabilities range between 25-50%. A Frost Advisory may be needed in a future forecast update. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The long term forecast is characterized by the return of dry and increasingly warm conditions. Ensembles show agreement in developing a broad, amplified ridge across the central CONUS next week as a trough digs through the Pacific coast. This means the return of southerly winds, warm air advection, ample sunshine, and by mid- week, the return of above-average temperatures. Indeed, small NBM temperature spreads lend themselves to high forecast confidence && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Near-MVFR clouds will continue to fill in across southern Missouri at the beginning of the TAF period, with ceilings generally between 3000 to 4000 ft. A few isolated pockets of sprinkles will move southeast through the area this afternoon; no mention was included in the current TAFs as no impacts to ceiling or visibility areexpected. Breezy northwest winds with gusts of 25 to 30 kt this afternoon will gradually wind down after 00Z before shifting to the northeast after 12Z. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Didio  655 FXUS64 KEPZ 161806 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1206 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A cold front has pushed through today bringing continued breezy and windy conditions with well below normal temperatures. - High wind warning and wind advisory still in effect through tonight for southwest New Mexico. Wind gusts to 50 mph are possible in New Mexico bootheel. - Scattered rain showers for the middle of next week as temperatures rebound. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today, we will see our coldest temperatures of the season so far with lows dipping down to the low 40s through much of the lowlands. Area mountains will see subfreezing conditions with the Sacs reaching the low 20s in some parts during tomorrow's early morning. These temperature trends are about 15 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. High temperatures will rebound by the end of the weekend. Widespread sustained easterly winds between 20 and 30 mph will continue this afternoon and evening with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times in parts of southern Hidalgo county. Blowing dust remains a concern through this evening coinciding with the greatest wind threat in southern Hidalgo county according to the signatures in the RRFS. A Blowing Dust Advisory near the Lordsburg Playa, NM Bootheel, and Luna county is in effect through 8 PM tonight. Winds subside and precip chances are rather slim for most of the weekend with greater chances favoring the western half of the CWA on Sunday morning as a developing upper level low pushes east. This low deepens considerably over the course of next week bringing with it increasing chances for precip. Flooding is possible with areawide rain and PWs reaching around 1 inch. Confidence remains low for midweek rain impacts at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Breezy to windy conditions will start to slowly decrease tonight. Winds out in western NM (like KDMN) and the higher terrain stays quite breezy tonight. Saturday will become breezy as well but not to the level that we saw last night or today. Breezier winds out in KDMN tomorrow afternoon and continued dry conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 548 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front ushered in strong winds and some blowing dust this morning. These elevated winds will continue through most of the day, before slowing this evening. Min RH's today and Saturday will be in the mid to upper teens in the lowlands and in the 20's in area mountains. Sunday will start both a warming trend and moisture will return to the region. Rain chances will be back in the forecast for much of next week, with min RH's above 30% across the area. Ventilation rates today will be very good to excellent and then a little lower on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 43 64 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 35 60 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 39 62 43 65 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 37 62 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 22 47 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 39 62 46 65 / 0 0 0 20 Silver City 37 59 43 61 / 0 0 30 40 Deming 41 64 45 66 / 0 0 0 20 Lordsburg 43 62 48 65 / 0 0 40 40 West El Paso Metro 46 64 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 37 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 44 69 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 35 56 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 43 67 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 42 63 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 42 65 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 38 63 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 39 65 45 69 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 45 64 48 68 / 0 0 0 20 Orogrande 37 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 26 57 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 26 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 25 54 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 31 56 38 60 / 0 0 10 20 Hillsboro 38 61 44 63 / 0 0 0 20 Spaceport 35 63 43 65 / 0 0 0 20 Lake Roberts 32 62 38 64 / 0 0 30 30 Hurley 37 60 42 63 / 0 0 10 30 Cliff 43 69 49 69 / 0 0 40 40 Mule Creek 40 64 46 64 / 0 0 30 40 Faywood 37 59 43 62 / 0 0 0 30 Animas 45 63 48 67 / 0 0 30 30 Hachita 42 62 46 65 / 0 0 20 20 Antelope Wells 43 64 46 67 / 0 0 10 20 Cloverdale 41 60 45 66 / 0 0 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley. High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel. Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley- Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher  779 FXUS65 KSLC 161808 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1208 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms return to portions of southern Utah late Sunday morning through the afternoon. - More widespread precipitation is expected roughly Tuesday on into the weekend. Total water amounts remain around 0.50-1.50", with locally higher amounts to around 2.00-2.50" or so. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... Morning water vapor analysis shows ridging extending through the Great Basin while a broad cutoff low swirls near the Baja Peninsula. With dry and stable conditions, overnight lows dipped near to slightly below freezing in some locations, but temperatures are quickly rebounding. Forecast afternoon highs are expected to push to near seasonable levels in most locations, with the exception being portions of the San Rafael Swell and Castle Country where highs will run around 5-10 degrees below normal. The broad cutoff low will gradually shift east to northeastward into the Desert Southwest, before ejecting into the northern stream Sunday into Monday. For Saturday, conditions more or less look like a repeat of Friday but with temperatures nudging upwards slightly. Moisture associated with the low will start to push through portions of southern Utah Sunday morning into the afternoon, bringing enhanced cloud cover as well as isolated chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. After an overnight lull, similar conditions are then expected Monday. A larger northern stream trough will be digging southward from the PacNW on Tuesday. Models generally support this feature gradually cutting off from California into the Great Basin through the middle of the week, eventually translating eastward through the Intermountain West on into the weekend. Ensembles mean PWAT anomalies generally push into the 150-200% of normal range (AI ECM locally up to 250% across the Four Corners region). That said, there are some differences in exact timing, likely owing to the cutoff nature of the trough. Overall though, the general pattern would contain enhanced upper and midlevel support, which in combination with ample moisture would result in more widespread precipitation chances across the area. Current forecast water amounts have not changed markedly, with general storm total amounts (Tuesday through Friday) of around 0.50" to 1.50". Locally higher amounts of roughly 2.00" to 2.50" are noted in some orographically favored high terrain in a south to southwest flow regime. With the cutoff nature of the low, there is not much of a cold air tap, with 700 mb temps only falling to around 0C to -3C later Thursday into the weekend as the trough axis works in. Snow levels will remain above 10000 ft until then, only gradually falling to around 8500-9500 ft as the modestly cooler air moves in. Models in turn do support accumulating snow on the order of 4-12" or so in some of that higher terrain. && && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions will continue at the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period with clear skies. Prevailing northwest winds but vary at times will continue at the terminal before switching to diurnally-driven Light southeasterly winds around 03Z this evening. Northwesterly flow will return around 20Z tomorrow. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all regional terminals. A majority of terminals will continue to see light, terrain driven flows throughout the day, however, areas around KSGU through KCDC will see breezy northerly winds throughout the day. Peak winds in this area will gust upwards of 25-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1206 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... A strengthening ridge of high pressure is noted over the area, helping to maintain dry conditions. Temperatures are generally running near to a little below normal across much of the area, though will nudge upwards for Saturday. A grazing system will bring isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two to southern Utah Sunday and Monday, with increased cloud cover expected elsewhere. By Tuesday a larger scale trough is expected to dig into the Great Basin, gradually cutting off and then shifting eastward through the week. In combination with ample moisture, this system will bring unsettled conditions and more widespread precipitation to Utah. Forecast water amounts Tuesday on through Friday are roughly 0.50" to 1.50", with locally up to 2.00" to 2.50" in some of the favored high terrain. Snow will remain above 10000 feet through Thursday. Slightly cooler air moving in late Thursday on into Friday will allow snow levels to drop to roughly 8500-9500 feet, allowing some accumulating snow at higher elevations. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Warthen AVIATION...Tekoe FIRE WEATHER...Warthen HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  830 FXUS65 KSLC 161809 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1209 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms return to portions of southern Utah late Sunday morning through the afternoon. - More widespread precipitation is expected roughly Tuesday on into the weekend. Total water amounts remain around 0.50-1.50", with locally higher amounts to around 2.00-2.50" or so. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... Morning water vapor analysis shows ridging extending through the Great Basin while a broad cutoff low swirls near the Baja Peninsula. With dry and stable conditions, overnight lows dipped near to slightly below freezing in some locations, but temperatures are quickly rebounding. Forecast afternoon highs are expected to push to near seasonable levels in most locations, with the exception being portions of the San Rafael Swell and Castle Country where highs will run around 5-10 degrees below normal. The broad cutoff low will gradually shift east to northeastward into the Desert Southwest, before ejecting into the northern stream Sunday into Monday. For Saturday, conditions more or less look like a repeat of Friday but with temperatures nudging upwards slightly. Moisture associated with the low will start to push through portions of southern Utah Sunday morning into the afternoon, bringing enhanced cloud cover as well as isolated chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. After an overnight lull, similar conditions are then expected Monday. A larger northern stream trough will be digging southward from the PacNW on Tuesday. Models generally support this feature gradually cutting off from California into the Great Basin through the middle of the week, eventually translating eastward through the Intermountain West on into the weekend. Ensembles mean PWAT anomalies generally push into the 150-200% of normal range (AI ECM locally up to 250% across the Four Corners region). That said, there are some differences in exact timing, likely owing to the cutoff nature of the trough. Overall though, the general pattern would contain enhanced upper and midlevel support, which in combination with ample moisture would result in more widespread precipitation chances across the area. Current forecast water amounts have not changed markedly, with general storm total amounts (Tuesday through Friday) of around 0.50" to 1.50". Locally higher amounts of roughly 2.00" to 2.50" are noted in some orographically favored high terrain in a south to southwest flow regime. With the cutoff nature of the low, there is not much of a cold air tap, with 700 mb temps only falling to around 0C to -3C later Thursday into the weekend as the trough axis works in. Snow levels will remain above 10000 ft until then, only gradually falling to around 8500-9500 ft as the modestly cooler air moves in. Models in turn do support accumulating snow on the order of 4-12" or so in some of that higher terrain. && && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions will continue at the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period with clear skies. Prevailing northwest winds but vary at times will continue at the terminal before switching to diurnally-driven Light southeasterly winds around 03Z this evening. Northwesterly flow will return around 20Z tomorrow. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all regional terminals. A majority of terminals will continue to see light, terrain driven flows throughout the day, however, areas around KSGU through KCDC will see breezy northerly winds throughout the day. Peak winds in this area will gust upwards of 25-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER,Issued 1206 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... A strengthening ridge of high pressure is noted over the area, helping to maintain dry conditions. Temperatures are generally running near to a little below normal across much of the area, though will nudge upwards for Saturday. A grazing system will bring isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two to southern Utah Sunday and Monday, with increased cloud cover expected elsewhere. By Tuesday a larger scale trough is expected to dig into the Great Basin, gradually cutting off and then shifting eastward through the week. In combination with ample moisture, this system will bring unsettled conditions and more widespread precipitation to Utah. Forecast water amounts Tuesday on through Friday are roughly 0.50" to 1.50", with locally up to 2.00" to 2.50" in some of the favored high terrain. Snow will remain above 10000 feet through Thursday. Slightly cooler air moving in late Thursday on into Friday will allow snow levels to drop to roughly 8500-9500 feet, allowing some accumulating snow at higher elevations. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Warthen AVIATION...Tekoe FIRE WEATHER...Warthen HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  157 FXUS64 KEWX 161827 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 127 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 126 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Wind Advisory for all of South Central Texas through 7pm with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts between 40-50 mph. - Cooler air ushers into the area and remains through the weekend, then a warming trend begins. - A potential return to a more active pattern is possible towards next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gusty winds continue early this afternoon as a surface pressure gradient remains behind our early morning cold front. Strong winds northeasterly winds from the sfc to 850mb will continue to send cooler and drier air into our region, but clouds will persist through the night as westerly flow persists above the 500mb level. Expect winds to remain strong beyond the expiration of the Wind Advisory, but below advisory criteria, as sustained speeds slip below 20 mph for most areas after sunset and gusts start to fall to less than 35 mph. Strong cold air advection, particularly between the 850mb and 700mb level will aid in a quick drop off in temperatures overnight. The coolest morning since the Spring is expected Saturday, as lows start in the low to mid 40s over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, and in the mid to upper 40s/lower 50s everywhere else. Clouds are expected to linger somewhat, but they will be of the upper level cirrus variety Saturday and Sunday afternoons as mid- level flow persists out of the west and WSW. Temperatures on Saturday will struggle to get out of the 60s for most areas as northerly winds remain on the breezy side, around 15-20 mph. Winds should relax finally Saturday evening, quickly after sunset as a surface high settles in to our northeast. Temperatures Sunday morning will dip as low as the upper 30s in some spots of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, with 40s expected everywhere else. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Slightly warmer temperatures are expected Sunday, with most, if not all locations back in the lower to middle 70s. In summary. the weekend will be cool and dry with Fall in the air. Next week will feature a slow and steady warm-up, but the humidity shouldn't return to the level that it did earlier this week where we had mornings in the mid to upper 70s. By mid to late week, temperatures will warm back into the 80s with increasing southwesterly flow aloft as broad longwave troughing develops over the western CONUS. This could set the stage for a stormier pattern by late week into next weekend, but it is still too far out to have much confidence on where any rain may fall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds of 20 to 28 knots with gusts as high as 43 knots are forecast for the local area terminals especially for the I-35 corridor through 00Z Saturday. For KDRT, a northerly breeze of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots are forecast for the rest of this afternoon. The wind relaxes a bit this evening into Saturday morning, however, prevailing wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts as high 25 knots are anticipated through the period. As far as cigs, VFR conditions are forecast to persist across the local area airports for the rest of today through Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 50 69 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 47 69 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 49 68 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 45 65 45 71 / 0 0 00 Del Rio Intl Airport 49 66 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 48 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 47 69 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 48 69 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 50 70 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 50 69 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 51 70 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173-183>194- 202>209-217>225-228. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM....MMM AVIATION...17  349 FXUS64 KJAN 161829 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 129 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant threat for dangerous fire weather conditions continues into this weekend. - A "Red Flag Warning" remains in effect for the remainder of today, and will be in effect again on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tonight through next Thursday...A dry cold front is in the process of moving through the CWA this afternoon. Other than an increase in cloud cover, very little to no shower activity is forecast to accompany this front. Strong high pressure building into the forecast area in its wake, is resulting in a tight pressure gradient across the region. These gusty northwest winds are ushering in a noticeably cooler drier airmass, that'll linger across the CWA through the weekend. While pleasant early fall conditions will exist during this time, temperatures will steadily warm across the region next week. However, the dry airmass will remain. Thus, resulting in less humid conditions throughout this forecast period. Once again on Saturday, a significant threat of dangerous fire weather conditions will exist across the forecast area. Soil conditions remain critically dry, with no rain chances in site. Breezy northerly winds will also promote a very dry airmass across the region. While lower high temperatures on Saturday will yield slightly higher afternoon minimum relative humidity values compared to today, humidity values will still fall to near critical levels at around 30-35% across nearly all of the area. Therefore, I've upgraded the "Fire Weather Watch" to a "Red Flag Warning" for Saturday on this afternoon's package. Today's "Red Flag Warning" is in effect until 8 PM CDT. /19/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 All TAF sites are reporting a mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions as of 1743Z. VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail through the whole period. Gusty northwesterly winds will persist across all sites, with gusts in excess of 30 knots as a cold front sweeps across the area. Low- level wind shear will occur across most TAF sites starting around 01Z Saturday and will prevail through 13Z Saturday. Wind gusts should begin to decrease across the area by late Saturday evening. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 50 71 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 48 69 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 48 71 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 50 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 50 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 48 69 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 47 70 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. LA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026. AR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ074-075. && $$ 19/CR  718 FXUS61 KALY 161832 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 232 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC expanded the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) slightly further north to include all of the eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, south- central Taconics, the southern reaches of the Capital District, south- central Berkshires and Litchfield County, CT. The Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) includes the rest of the forecast area, except the southern Adirondacks and most of the Glens Fall Lake George Region. Retooled hourly PoPs and weather late this pm into tonight with the timing of the front with a transition to some snow showers/flurries over the higher terrain including the western Dacks, southern Greens and northern Catskills. Also blended in some NBM90 wind gusts tomorrow afternoon with brisk west/northwest to northwest winds tonight through Saturday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, showers, and a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into early tonight. 2) Continued gusty winds and unseasonably chilly conditions are expected tonight through Saturday. A coating to a few tenths of an inch of snow are possible in the high terrain late tonight into Saturday morning. 3) Dry weather with temperatures moderating to near seasonable levels late Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 230 pm EDT...A strong cold front continues to approach from west- central NY and PA this afternoon, as low pressure moves towards southern Quebec. A strong positively-tilted trough mid and upper level associated with the system is moving across the eastern Great Lakes Region and the Midwest. Pre-frontal showers continue across the southern Adirondacks and w-central Mohawk Valley. Some breaks in the clouds occurred across the Capital District/Schoharie Valley earlier but stratus has increased again across most of the region. A high shear-low CAPE environment is setting up from the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region/Berkshires south and east. SPC has most of the forecast area in Marginal (Level 1 of 5) or Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) due to some low-topped convection potentially forming that may bring some isolated damaging wind gusts to the southern portion of the forecast area. The latest HREFS/REFS has limited mean SBCAPEs of 100-250 J/kg south of the Capital District over the mid Hudson Valley, southeast Catskills, southern Taconics, and NW CT. The 0-6 km bulk shear increases 40-60+ KT. The CAMs soundings from the 3-km HRRR/ARW-WRF show 800 hPA winds increasing to 45-50 KT with the low to mid level winds very strong. A broken line or strongly- forced line of convection is possible on some of the CAMs with the threat looking the greatest from about Hudson, NY to the I-84 corridor. The question will be if any updrafts will be tall enough to tap into these winds aloft and translate them to the sfc. At the very least, we could be looking at some gusty showers with a rumble of thunder with gusts 30-50 mph which could blow around loosely unsecured objects, and bring down some foliated large tree limbs. The the threat window looks like 3-7 pm before the showers and possibly some embedded strong/potentially severe thunderstorms move east of most of the forecast area with the front. KEY MESSAGE 2... Tonight, in the wake of the cold front brisk/blustery conditions occur, as west/northwest winds 10-20 mph shift to the northwest with the cold advection. Some gusts 25-35 mph will likely occur with a few isolated gusts around 40 mph funneling down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital Region, northern Taconics and the Berkshires. Some gusty winds are also possible over the northern/eastern Catskills. In the wake of the front with the mid and upper trough approaching, some upslope rain to snow showers will occur over the western Dacks and southern Greens. Some light snow accums of a coating to a few tenths of inch may occur. Some light snow showers/flurries could occur over the northern Catskills, northern Taconics and Berkshires due to upslope and lake enhanced showers. The low-level flow quickly veers to the northwest with some multi-bands of lake effect potentially grazing the northern and eastern Catskills Saturday morning. Latest NAEFS indicate H850 temp anomalies will be 1 to 2 STDEVs below normal. The actual H850 temps fall to -6C to -9C from Albany north and west into the Adirondacks to 0C to -6C readings south and east towards the I-84 corridor by daybreak Saturday. Temps will fall quickly with widespread lows in the 30s to lower 40s with some upper 20s over the south/southwest Adirondacks and southern Greens. Wind chill temps or "feels-like" temps when combining the winds with the air temps will be in the teens to mid/upper 20s over the higher terrain with mainly 30s in the valleys with some mid/upper 20s in the western Mohawk Valley. It will feel like early Winter. Upslope and lake effect snow showers/flurries or sprinkles will end in the late morning with the subsidence inversion lowering. The brisk northwest winds will continue with chilly temps with daytime highs only in the 40s in the valleys with a few readings near 50F in the Hudson Valley and 30s to lower 40s over the hills and mtns. The winds will persist from the northwest at 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph due to the sfc pressure gradient and some deeper mixing. We increased gusts slightly blending in the latest NBM 90th percentile. The latest NBM 24-hr probs for gusts >35 mph are low from 2 am Sat to 2 am Sun, as they are only 20-40% over the northern Taconics/northern Berkshires and eastern Catskills. Gusts > 40 mph are less than 15%, so no Wind Advisories expected. Wind Chills/"Feels-like" temps will continue in the 20s and 30s for much of the day. The winds subside fairly quickly Saturday night with the sfc high building in from the Ohio Valley over PA and NY. Lows fall into the 20s to around 30F. The growing season is over, but a widespread frost will occur across the region. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure will be overhead and nearby NY and New England to close the weekend with temps rebounding after a cold start into the mid/upper 40s to mid 50s across eastern NY and western New England with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Another chilly night is expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, but temps moderate to seasonal levels in the 50s to around 60F on Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies. Dry weather and seasonable temps continue through the mid week, as we monitor a coastal low near the Mid Atlantic Coast during the mid week (Tue- Wed time frame). && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z/Saturday...Conditions vary amongst the terminals this afternoon as visible satellite shows some breaks in a largely MVFR stratus deck, forcing isolated VFR conditions, with some scattered IFR heights throughout the region. Latest scans of the ENX radar indicate the significant breaking apart of what was formerly a pre-cold frontal rainband with little threat to impact any of the terminal domains within the next couple of hours. Winds are somewhat variable (southeast to southwest directions) ahead of the incoming cold front, with sustained speeds ranging from about 3 to 11 kt with occasional gusts between 20 to 30 kt at ALB and PSF. While eastward-translating breaks in cloud coverage could allow for additional, brief improvements in ceiling heights over the next couple of hours, the further encroachment of the cold front should reinforce theholes and force the return to consistent MVFR and possible IFR conditions. Additional batches of showers closer accompanying the cold front are beginning to fill into central New York and could impact terminals between 19-00z this afternoon and evening. However, because of the latest trends in the guidance and radar scans, confidence has become lower in the occurrence of showers at ALB, POU, and PSF. These sites were therefore given PROB30s to account for the potential of additional showers while GFL has a TEMPO given enough confidence in brief showers given their proximity to the eastern-most Great Lake. Once the cold front rips through this afternoon and this evening, fairly swift improvements to VFR ceiling heights are expected for all except PSF which could hang on to an MVFR ceiling longer into the overnight. Winds will also become very breezy behind the front, taking on a westerly and then northwesterly direction, with sustained speeds reaching 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt by the end of the 18z cycle. Outlook... Saturday Night to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...12  123 FXUS61 KBGM 161838 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 238 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Little change to previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front moving through this afternoon and evening will bring a line of gusty showers to NY and potently a few severe thunderstorms to Northeast PA. 2) High pressure returns this weekend and temperatures will gradually warm up next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front is progressing its way through NY and PA this afternoon. Across NY, cloud cover and showers have kept temperatures cooler and not allowed for much heating. Clouds have cleared in the Wyoming valley in NEPA so there is starting to be some surface based CAPE to develop. A bowing storm in central PA is on line with moving into the Wyoming Valley between 4 and 5 pm. As of now, strong wind gusts look to be the main concern as the storms move through NEPA. Shear is strong, with mesoanalysis showing about 50 knots of bulk shear ahead of the line. In NY, there is a thin line of showers along the front with some gusts of 30 to 35 mph so still will see some breezy conditions with its passage but nothing severe. Tonight into tomorrow, strong cold air advection will drop temperatures into the 30s and 40s along with 20 to 30 mph winds gusts. Wind chills will be at or below freezing for much of the day so quite the difference from the recent weather we have been having. Temperatures Saturday night will result in the first widespread freeze as lows fall into the 20s. KEY MESSAGE 2... An area of high pressure will remain present over the region throughout next week. A quasi-stationary low pressure system will develop along the East Coast and linger off the Carolinas and mid Atlantic for much of the week. The strong ridge in place will keep the low off shore with any precipitation remaining east of our region. Temperatures will gradually warm up into early next week, becoming more seasonable. Sunny skies may help push high temperatures back into the 70s in the valleys. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will be pushing through the region this afternoon through this evening. Rain showers, some heavy, will produce restrictions across Central NY sites and into the Southern tier for the first 2 to 4 hours of the forecast period. Further south in northeast PA, skies have clear and the added sunshine has produced more instability there. So AVP, will have potential to see thunderstorms later this afternoon into early this evening as the front pushes through. After the front exits, still unsettled conditions expected overnight into Saturday with MVFR ceilings possible. Early morning snow showers will be possible at SYR, ITH and BGM, but confidence is too low to include at this time. Outlook... Saturday afternoon through Saturday night...Lake effect cloud cover and potential snow showers keeps cig restrictions likely for all terminals, except AVP. Sunday through Wednesday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR conditions expected with possible IFR valley fog at ELM in the early morning hours. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ044-047. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG/BTL AVIATION...MPK  724 FXUS61 KGYX 161848 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 248 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were needed with this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. An approaching cold front continues rain chances into this evening with a couple of gusty thunderstorms possible in southern NH. 2. A seasonably cold airmass and gusty winds arrive behind the cold front to start the weekend, with wintry conditions across the higher terrain. 3. Mild and dry conditions look to persist from Sunday through much of next week as high pressure dominates over the Northeast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Surface low pressure will track roughly along or just south of the St. Lawrence River Valley and drag a strong cold front through New England this evening into tonight. Out ahead of the front, it's currently pretty dreary out in most places with overcast skies and fog, rain and drizzle. Temperatures have started to trend up slowly as southerly flow increases, and a warm front has made its way into southern NH, where temperatures have warmed into the lower 60s of 2pm. The steadier rain is currently north across central and northern portions of the area, but looking upstream, more showers are on the way for later this afternoon and early evening as the cold front approaches. CAMS are showing a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE that may be sufficient for a couple of thunderstorms across the southern half of NH and into far southwest ME. Chances appear low, but if any storm that develops can become surface-based, there is enough wind shear for strong wind gusts. The better chance of this occurring is across southern NH, which SPC has placed in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe weather. Showers are expected to end from west to east this evening, and roughly another 0.10" of 0.25" precipitation between now and then. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Northwest winds become breezy behind the front late this evening and continue through tonight with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Based on hi-res guidance, these breezy conditions should kick in late evening to around midnight. These winds will carry in a much colder airmass, and upslope mountains rain showers are expected to transition to snow showers overnight, which should continue into at least the first part of Saturday. Increasing Froude numbers tonight/early Saturday could result in some clouds and possibly a couple of rain or snow showers spilling over downwind of the mountains if we can hold onto enough low level moisture. The combination of temperatures falling into the 30s to low 40s and gusty winds will make for wind chills in the 20s and 30s toward daybreak Saturday, possibly teens across the north. Cold air advection continues into Saturday, making it feel rather blustery out. Temperatures only recover somewhat into the 40s south of the mountains, but breezy NW winds of 25-35 mph will keep wind chills mostly in the 30s. Across the north, winds chills are expected to stay below freezing through the day. One silver lining is that a push of drier air will bring mostly sunny skies downwind of the mountains by the afternoon while diminishing clouds/upslope precip in the mountains. For hikers: Conditions will be dangerous and wintry in the higher terrain. In addition to snow showers, winds will be much higher and and temperatures much colder, making for winds chills in the single digits to possibly below zero above tree line. Winds will diminish Saturday night as high pressure builds overhead, bringing favorable conditions for radiational cooling. I've gone a cooler than the NBM on low temperatures with most of the area seeing lows in the 20s and possibly teens in the the northern valleys. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure crests overhead on Sunday which should allow for a warmer feeling day as winds calm. Under full sun we should be able to mix into the low 50s south of the mountains, and into the mid to upper 40s to the north. Clear and calm conditions continue into Sunday night setting up for strong radiational cooling. I have gone ahead and already started to capture that trend by blending colder MOS guidance into the NBM. The result is widespread temperatures in the 20s with only the immediate coast hovering near or above freezing. The center of the high pressure moves off to the east Monday but for the most part should stay nosed in for the better the part of the day resulting in mostly clear skies and afternoon temperatures mixing into the mid to upper 50s for the majority of the area. At the same time low pressure develops off the coast of the Carolinas where it looks like it is going to meander into midweek. It may meander just far enough north Monday night to spread some high and mid-level clouds into the coastal plain and potentially up to the foothills. If it is just mostly high clouds we could see another night with decent radiational cooling, but if the trend continues to bring it further north and more midlevel clouds make it as well it will remain warmer. As a result we will roll with NBM for now which is a smattering of upper 20s to low 30s for much of the area, and upper 30s in southeastern New Hampshire. High pressure begins to push low pressure back to the south during the day Tuesday which is going to bring about clearing skies, and probably the warmest day of the week with widespread low 60s. Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions then continue as high pressure crests over the region again Wednesday and lasts through at least the day Thursday. Late week there is some suggestion for another area of low pressure to interrupt the pattern again, but models are all over the place on where it forms and how it tracks, so it is really just worth only a brief mention until there is better agreement and/or a clear trend. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Ceilings range from LIFR to MVFR this afternoon with showers and pockets of drizzle at times. A cold front will also bring a chance of thunderstorms, mainly for MHT, CON, and PSM. Winds turn west to northwest this evening behind the front, with conditions mostly returning to VFR, although occasional MVFR ceilings are possible overnight. The exception as always will be HIE, where MVFR ceilings remain likely with possible rain and snow showers overnight and into at least the first part of Saturday. Northwest winds will gust 25-30 kt tonight and Saturday morning, possibly up to 35 kt. Outlook: Rest of Saturday: VFR with northwest wind gusts 25-30 kt, possibly up to 35 kt. Saturday night: VFR with lighter winds. Sunday-Wednesday...High pressure brings an extended period of VFR conditions with no sig wx. Wind will tend to follow typical diurnal patterns. && .MARINE... Through Saturday night...SCA conditions continue through Saturday evening. South to southwest winds persist across the waters into early this evening ahead of a cold front but will quickly turn to the northwest later in the evening and into the early part of tonight behind the front. Brisk northwest flow continues on Saturday, and then winds become northerly and start to diminish late in the day as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds and seas further diminish Saturday night. Sunday-next week...There is still some uncertainty regarding track of a low pressure system expected to develop off of the coast of the Carolinas next week. There is potential for this to push a 5 to 7 ft swell into the gulf of Maine for the first half of the week, but if high pressure remains dominant and this low remains suppressed conditions would likely be calmer. Late week is also uncertain as additional low pressure may form east of the Gulf of Maine. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ150>154. && $$ DISCUSSION...Combs/Baron  756 FXUS62 KFFC 161849 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 249 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry conditions will persist for the next 7 days. - A Wind Advisory is in effect through noon Saturday for portions of north and northeast Georgia. Gusts up to 35-40 mph are possible in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage. - The first near-freezing temperatures (<35F) of the season are possible for the terrain of northeast Georgia Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A broad, strong cold front situated along the leading edge of a digging mid-level trough is progged to sweep across the state this afternoon through tomorrow morning. At the time of writing of this AFD, temperatures in northwest Georgia are in the low-to-mid 80s, and 3 counties to the northwest -- just across the GA/TN border in Bedford County, TN -- temperatures are in the upper 50s (!). Patchy light showers and drizzle have developed within the cloud shield on the backside of the front, and low-end (15-25%) chances for an isolated shower will filter across portions of north Georgia this afternoon. Most will remain dry. A stout surface pressure gradient will develop in response to the enhanced forcing, supporting the development of breezy conditions areawide. Widespread gusts up to 25 to 30 mph are possible, with a Wind Advisory in effect for portions of north and northeast Georgia to highlight increased chances for gusts up to 35 to 40 mph from late this afternoon through early Saturday afternoon. An important consideration as winds tick upward: for areas that experienced increased tree damage from the glancing blow from Isaias last week, any partially-downed trees or loosened limbs will be more easily dislodged at lower-than-normal wind speeds. Be mindful, and be sure to secure any loose outdoor furniture or holiday decorations. PWATs will plummet post-front (<0.5", sub-25th percentile climatologically), with clear and dry and markedly cooler conditions expected on Saturday. Morning lows will be crisp if not chilly for some, in the 40s to 50s. Highs will struggle to get out of the 50s for portions of northeast Georgia, staying solidly in the 60s to near 70 elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Crisp Start to Sunday: A dry and relatively cool airmass will remain across the area on Sunday, courtesy of stout N/NE flow on the backside of a stacked low over the Carolina coast. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be the coolest so far this season, with widespread low to mid 40s. One exception will be across the North GA mountains, which could fall to the mid 30s or even near freezing in the coldest spots. Temperatures will slowly increase throughout the day under sunny skies, but will struggle to climb out of the mid to upper 60s. Between the cooler temperatures and slightly breezy northeast winds (10mph gusting to 20mph), the feeling of Fall will be in full effect. Dry with Gradual Warming Next Week: Guidance remains in relatively good agreement on the forecast for much of next week, with a closed mid-level low parked over the Carolinas. North and Central GA will remain on the dry side of this system, with rain chances near zero. Temperatures will slowly warm each day, but remain right around normal, with highs generally in the low to mid 70s, and overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conds this aftn with primarily SCT cigs at 4-6kft. SCT-BKN MVFR will encroach upon northern TAF sites by 02Z (perhaps earlier), with rapid improvements back to SKC exp by 13-14Z. Low- end chc for pcpn with frontal passage, captured by VCSH from 21-02Z. Cannot rule out -SHRA during that timeframe, but conf too low for TAF mention. Winds will become progressively breezier out of the NW. Initially 12G20KT, increasing to 18G30KT by 02-03Z. Exp slackening to 20-22KT gusts by 23Z tmrw. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence all elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 52 66 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 51 66 46 64 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 42 58 33 65 / 20 0 0 0 Cartersville 47 64 41 67 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 52 70 48 68 / 10 0 0 0 Gainesville 50 65 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 53 70 47 66 / 10 0 0 0 Rome 47 64 40 68 / 40 0 0 0 Peachtree City 48 66 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 60 68 48 64 / 10 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Saturday for GAZ005>009-012>016-020-021. && $$ SHORT TERM...96 LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...96  371 FXUS62 KTAE 161842 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 242 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A Wind Advisory over land for wind gusts up to 35 mph in the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama for weakened and vulnerable trees and structures damaged from Hurricane Isaias. - A Gale Warning is in effect over our waters for winds up to 40kts for Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As we head into this evening, a strong cold front will begin pushing through the area. Little, if any, precipitation is expected with this frontal passage, with the main concern instead being increasing winds as the pressure gradient tightens behind the front. Winds will quickly shift out of the north following this front, with a combination of cold air advection and potentially some daytime mixing helping to bring stronger gusts to the surface on Saturday. Behind the front, we'll finally see some welcome relief from the unseasonably warm temperatures we've experienced over the past week. Daytime highs on Saturday will generally remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Something worth keeping an eye on is the development of a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic coast, although some uncertainty remains regarding its eventual position and the influence it will have on our local weather. While the low itself is not expected to directly impact our area, its position could influence the prevailing low level flow throughout the remainder of this weekend. If it were to stay along the coast we'll see a northeasterly flow that would favor drier air and sunnier skies. If it shifts farther offshore more easterly winds are possible, which will allow for some low level moisture return. This instead favors more cloud cover and maybe even some misty conditions or drizzle. Ultimately how this coastal low evolves will help determine exactly how much more sunshine we'll get to enjoy throughout the next few days. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Breezy to windy conditions continue Sunday before relaxing a little as the pressure gradient begins to weaken slightly later Sunday into early next week. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s in many locations Sunday before a warming trend sees afternoon temperatures climb into the lower 70s Monday and mid to upper 70s the rest of next week. Overnight lows will be a bit cool with middle to upper 40s to near 50 to start the week and ending it in the middle to upper 50s. All of this is thanks to an H5 low cutting off over the Mid-Atlantic Coast. This spawns a coastal surface low that will meander off the Carolina coastline for a while, helping to keep dry northerly to northeasterly flow over our region. We will monitor the potential for a more easterly component to the surface winds Sunday into the early part of the work week as that could bring back enough low- level moisture to introduce more cloud cover than we currently have in the forecast. If that's the case, forecast highs would be knocked down. But there's not a whole lot of ensemble support for that at this time, but it's worth mentioning and monitoring on our end. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 This TAF cycle focuses on winds before and after cold frontal passage. For the rest of this aftn into the evening, winds generally less than 10 kts are fcst. By tonight, a strong cold front plows thru the region and ushers in quick northwesterly wind shift, ramping up to about 15 kts sustained with frequent gusts of 25-30 kts. Timed the onset at each terminal based on the latest trends with ECP/DHN experiencing post-frontal gustiness first (~3Z) and VLD last (~9Z). Otherwise, VFR conds prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front arrives tonight causing winds to sharply turn out of the northwest to north and increasing to Gales. A Gale Warning remains in effect starting this evening and lasting through at least early Sunday morning. Portions of our offshore waters may see gale conditions extend through the entire weekend. Winds and seas remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front arrives tonight causing winds to sharply turn out of the northwest to north and increase surface winds to 15 to 30 mph sustained with gusts up to 40 mph. Relative humidity values decrease to 30 to 40 percent Saturday and Sunday afternoons in the wake of the front. Recent rains should limit critical fire weather concerns. However, we'll monitor how the fuels respond over the weekend into early next week as the breezy and dry conditions are expected to linger into next work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Several sites remain in Action Stage with most in the process of falling. Additional flooding concerns are not anticipated the next several days as high pressure dominates the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 72 52 68 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 59 71 54 70 / 20 0 0 0 Dothan 54 70 50 67 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 56 70 50 66 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 61 72 50 67 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 66 74 53 70 / 10 10 0 0 Apalachicola 63 71 56 69 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for FLZ007>014-108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ735. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Reese  110 FXUS63 KPAH 161838 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 138 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Saturday night has a pretty good potential for a first frost across most of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s. A Frost Advisory will likely be needed. - Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to around or slightly above normal for mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A large shortwave trof aloft swings through the region today and behind it upper ridging builds in. We have a tight sfc pressure gradient today behind last night/this morning's cold front. This is leading to breezy northwest winds today with gusts up to around 25 mph at times. Significantly cooler temperatures today as well as we struggle to get out of the 50s. Winds are expected to remain breezy through most of tomorrow along with highs that will likely hover right around 60. Saturday night a potent sfc high slides through and off to the northeast by daybreak Sunday. With clear and calm to nearly calm conditions Saturday night, along with dewpoints in the 30s, we will likely see a first frost of the season across most of the CWA as lows dip into the 30s. There may even be some brief freezing temperatures in far west portions of the CWA. A Frost Advisory will likely be needed. With deep layer ridging in place for a little while, we can expect dry conditions and large diurnal temperature swings next week. Sunday kicks off a warming trend that will bring temperatures back up to normal and slightly above normal for mid to late week. Highs will generally be in the 70s and lows will generally be in the 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 There is a brief period of VFR cigs (though still only around 3500 ft) this afternoon, then cigs come back down to MVFR around or just after sunset. Drier air begins to move in overnight and will lift cigs back to VFR and will slowly start to scatter out the cloud deck. Clear skies are expected by mid morning tomorrow. Breezy northwest winds continue this afternoon and into the overnight with gusts up to around 25 kts at times. Winds turn more northerly overnight, then northeasterly tomorrow morning. Slightly less breezy conditions are expected tomorrow. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HICKFORD AVIATION...HICKFORD  884 FXUS64 KFWD 161833 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 133 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong post-frontal winds with gusts up to 50 mph are expected through this evening. - Cooler and quiet conditions are expected this weekend with highs in the 60s and lows mainly in the 40s. - Quiet conditions continue through Thursday, with temperatures warming back towards seasonal norms. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Skies continue to scatter out from the northwest early this afternoon as the drier continental airmass pushes into the region. Some upper-level clouds with origins from the Sierra Madre will persist within southwesterly flow aloft as a cutoff low retrogrades through Baja California. Elsewhere across the country, an amplifying shortwave currently positioned over the Great Lakes will progress southeast through the eastern CONUS while ridging builds in its wake. At the surface locally, the cold front has cleared the southeastern counties of the CWA, with a strong cold- core high over the High Plains sending cool dry air through North and Central Texas. The primary weather story today is the gusty winds. 1700Z RAP objective analysis depicts a closed 1042mb contour at the center of the surface high which is progged to expand southeast through the afternoon. The tightened post-frontal pressure gradient will result in sustained 30mph winds, gusting to 50mph at times as diurnal mixing deepens the boundary layer to ~850mb and transports some of that 850 momentum down to the surface. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 7pm this evening. Breezy conditions will continue through the first half of the night until the high makes enough southeastward progress to relax the pressure gradient locally. Continued low-level CAA will offset a good portion of today's diabatic heating, resulting in highs in the 60s area-wide. While winds up to 20mph will linger through the overnight hours, clearing skies amidst dry conditions will allow for efficient radiational cooling. Lows tonight will be the coolest we've seen since late April, dropping into the 40s. High pressure through the column will continue to move east, with North and Central Texas positioned beneath through Sunday (and beyond). The accompanying continental airmass will remain, with tomorrow's highs peaking in the 60s and Sunday's highs approaching 70F. Lows will mimic that of tonight, though a few locations west of U.S. 281 may see temperatures drop into the upper-30s Saturday night. Northerly winds on Saturday will become easterly on Sunday (speeds around 10mph) as the primary surface high builds upstream of the mid/upper shortwave departing through the Eastern Seaboard. Skies will be mostly clear. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current indications amongst the global guidance are that a subtly progressive omega block will gradually develop through the workweek, with the flanking lows straddling the contiguous U.S. as the eastern CONUS shortwave cuts off from the primary branch of the polar jet and an incoming trough amplifies off the West Coast. Central CONUS ridging will remain established through the period, resulting in dry conditions and mostly clear skies amongst associated synoptic subsidence. Temperatures will steadily climb towards the mid-80s by Thursday as the post-frontal airmass modifies and ESE surface flow returns. With the recent cold frontal intrusion well into the Gulf, moisture return will be limited, compounded by return trajectories taking the modest dewpoints west of the area later in the week. "High and dry" is the colloquial phrase being said around the office. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong north winds continue at all terminals, with observed gusts of 35 kts common across the region. Speeds will begin to diminish this evening, with gust spreads relaxing to AOB 10 kts by around 00Z. VFR looks to prevail through the period. A few low clouds may try to move into the D10 airspace from the north tonight, however sporadic coverage precludes TAF inclusion at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 48 65 47 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 48 66 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 45 66 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 45 63 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 45 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 48 66 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 47 66 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 48 66 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 48 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 43 63 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dornsife LONG TERM....Dornsife AVIATION...Dornsife  313 FXUS64 KLIX 161841 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 141 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong cold front will move through later today, bringing cooler and much drier conditions along with very strong northerly winds. This will lead to multiple impacts. - First impact is elevated fire weather concerns. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for all of southern MS and portions of southeast LA Saturday. - Strong northerly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous marine conditions. A Gale Warning is in effect for all of the coastal waters beginning this evening through Saturday evening. A Small Craft Advisory follows the Gale Warning and marine headlines may be needed for much of the coastal waters into the new work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday night) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The forecast looks to be on track with a strong cold front approaching the area, currently located just outside our CWA. As this front moves in we will see a rapid increase in the winds, out of the north, with many areas gusting up to 30-35 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 3PM tomorrow for this reason. These winds will start to decrease over land Saturday evening. In addition to the wind, a surge of drier air will move in which when combined with the gusty winds and ongoing drought conditions will create dangerous fire weather conditions. RH values will drop down into the low ~30% for a good portion of the area. The Fire Weather Watch previously in effect has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for all of southern Mississippi and portions of southeast Louisiana. Outside of the breezy winds and dry air, this cold front will bring our first real surge of cooler air! By the time people are waking up Saturday morning most areas will be in the low to upper 50s. Afternoon highs Saturday only reach the low to mid 70s for the entire area and with evening temperatures quickly dropping, it may be time to break out the gumbo pots! Sunday morning lows will be the coolest of the period, with many northern areas all the way down into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday afternoon highs will still feel very comfortable in the low to mid 70s. By Monday we will start to see highs creep back towards the 80 degree mark. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Heading into the long term period, an upper level ridge will start to dominate the region. This allows temperatures to start a warming trend, with highs back into the 80s by mid week. Fire weather could continue to be an issue in the long term period as RH values remain very low, even down into the ~20% range, though winds over land won't be nearly as high as following the front. With the lighter winds, not expecting any headlines but it is something to watch. Otherwise, following today's front the entire forecast period shows no precipitation which will likely lead to worsening drought conditions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Prevailing VFR conditions across the area this afternoon. A strong front will move through the area later today, bringing some very gusty winds with it. Most terminals will see gusts out of the north to near 30kts. Winds don't look to lighten up until later Saturday. No convection is expected with this front. && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front will move through late today and tonight, bringing strong northerly gales and rapidly building seas. A gale warning has been issued beginning this evening and continuing through Saturday evening. As winds begin to slowly ease a bit over some of the protected waters Saturday gale headlines are replaced with advisories into Sunday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday and continue to slowly ease to around 20kt late Sunday. These conditions are expected to last into the start of the new work week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086. GM...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572- 575-577. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572- 575-577. MS...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071- 077-080>082. GM...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575- 577. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575- 577. && $$ SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....HL AVIATION...HL MARINE...HL  729 FXUS64 KMAF 161832 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 132 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 132 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A cold front brings the threat for the first freeze of the season for portions of SE NM and the higher terrain early Saturday morning. - Windy conditions continue behind the cold front through this evening. High gap winds are expected in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. - Monitoring for low (10-40%) rain chances across our western counties by the middle of next week. More details to come in subsequent forecast packages. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 What a difference 24 hours makes. A strong cold front has pushed all the way past the river, advecting in very dry air and drying out the column. As such, any remaining shower activity should be confined to the Presidio Valley, and diminishing rapidly. Post- frontal winds have been quite blustery, and current warnings/advisories handle the situation well. CAA behind the front puts this afternoon's highs a good ~ 15 F below what they were yesterday. Tonight, as gradients relax and winds decouple somewhat under clearing skies, temperatures will plummet to the coldest yet this Fall, averaging over 10 F below climatology. A few areas in the mountains and Southeast New Mexico could even hit the freeze mark before diurnal heating commences Saturday, and we've upgraded the freeze watch to a warning. Saturday, CAA continues, resulting in highs very similar to today's. Fortunately, surface winds begin veering. These winds will veer back to return flow Saturday night, halting the CAA, and keeping overnight minimums a couple of degrees warmer than tonight's. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Southerly return flow and clear skies allow for tempertures to rise into the 60s for most on Sunday. A warming trend continues through the end next week as Gulf moisture moves back into our area. Chances of rain (10-40%) return by midweek from the west due to upslope flow and embedded shortwaves moving through southwest flow aloft. By the latter half of the week, guidance shows more widespread chances of rain as an upper trough approaches the region and potentially increasing large-scale forcing for ascent. However, there is much uncertainty in rain coverage and amounts at this time. This will depend on the track of the trough and moisture quality. Naturally, we will continue to monitor trends and details shall become more clear in the coming days. Greening && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Blustery north winds will continue this afternoon, before gradients relax and winds decouple somewhat after sundown. Clouds will gradually diminish. Light winds will veer to east Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 39 60 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 35 60 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 43 58 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 39 57 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 36 53 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 32 58 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 34 55 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 37 58 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 37 58 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 37 60 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.Freeze Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden- Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos- Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell- Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Saturday for Central Lea- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...99  284 FXUS64 KMOB 161840 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 140 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Strong wind gusts expected to pose an enhanced threat for additional numerous downed trees and power outages over portions of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area on Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires. - Dangerous marine conditions developing Friday night through the weekend due to strong winds and high seas. In addition, a High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Looking at the big picture, for tonight through Monday night, a deep upper trough passes over the Southeast later today through tonight, with a strong cold front currently moving across central Mississippi at this time, moving across and south of land portions of the forecast area this afternoon and marine waters this evening into the overnight hours in response. A drier airmass over the forecast area at this time (precipitable h20 levels 1.5" along the coast to 1.1" along the northern border of the forecast area). This will help to limit any rainfall to near coastal and open Gulf afternoon and evening ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. Winds shift to northeasterly over land areas, easterly over open Gulf waters, as surface high pressure moving over the Mississippi River to the Eastern Conus, with a stronger surface ridge building south along the Appalachians in response to an upper level ridge moving over the Mississippi River and building. Looking at impacts for land areas, the first is a wind advisory for Friday night through Saturday. Northeast to northeast winds around 15kt/17mph with frequent gusts of 25-30kts/29-35mph with high values possible are possible. A drier airmass will move in behind the front. Combined with the winds, and Severe Drought conditions, an increase in the risk of wildfires is possible Saturday (more below). For marine impacts, read below. Temperatures are in for a nose-dive behind the front, with high temperatures in the much above seasonal mid 80s this afternoon dropping into the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday and Sunday. Some rebounding occurs Monday, as the upper ridge begins to build and northerly winds ease. Low temperatures behind the front's passage drop into the mid 40s north of Highway 40 to mid/upper 50s south of I-10 to the coast, remaining so into the coming week. For Tuesday on, the upper ridge over the Mississippi River continues to build. A nor'easter developing on the East Coast later in the weekend into the coming week will help to limit the eastward movement of the upper ridge and its effects, and evens shifts the ridge west over the Plains as it moves onshore over the southern Atlantic seaboard. High temperatures increase to back above seasonal norms, especially over and west of the Mississippi/Alabama State line, closer to the upper ridge axis. Low temperatures are slower to rise, with general northeasterly flow bringing weak, but a bit cooler, northeasterly flow, and a dry airmass helping with radiational cooling overnight. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is expected the rest of the week. As strong easterly flow sets up over the weekend, a High Risk of Rip Currents returns Sunday on. /16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening hours may cause brief reductions in ceilings an visibilitiesover portions of the coastal counties. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions through the period. The main impact to operations over the next 24 hours will be a strong cold front moving through the area this evening. Winds will increase rapidly out of the north (around 00Z-02Z for the TAF sites) to around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Low-level wind shear may also become a concern by Saturday morning with 0-2000 ft shear potentially reaching 25-30 knots, but just below threshold at this time. Gusty north winds will continue through the end of the period. JGC/98 && .MARINE... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A light, diurnally variable, flow today quickly becomes a strong to very strong northerly later this afternoon into tonight behind a cold front moving across the forecast area. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong, especially over open Gulf waters. With frequent gusts over gale force, along with some area seeing sustained winds close to gales, a Gale Watch is in effect for all waters tonight into Saturday morning, tapering to just offshore waters into Sunday as the stronger winds shift south. A Small Craft is in effect after the Gales goes down, lasting into the coming week, especially over open Gulf waters. /16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds, dry fuels, and Severe Drought over areas well inland from the coast will create an increased risk of wildfires over the forecast area Saturday and possibly into Sunday. Also, any areas with debris still on the ground over the western Florida panhandle and south-central Alabama, will be at added risk. A Fire Weather Warning is in effect for our Mississippi counties. Regardless, all areas should remain alert to the possibility of wildfires this weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 53 70 50 71 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 55 72 54 71 / 20 0 0 0 Destin 58 72 55 70 / 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 50 69 47 70 / 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 49 69 45 70 / 10 0 0 0 Camden 49 67 46 68 / 10 0 0 0 Crestview 54 70 50 68 / 20 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060-261>266. FL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206. MS...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ078-079. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>636. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$  167 FXUS65 KBOI 161839 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1239 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend, with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Wednesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... Issued 347 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026 The upper-level ridge centered over the western CONUS will keep temperatures warmer than normal today with clear skies. Dry surface layer conditions with weak winds will contribute to vast temperature differences from early morning lows, aided by radiational cooling, to peak heating during the afternoon. On Saturday, a weak upper-level shortwave trough will move inland across the Pacific Northwest and southern Canadian provinces. This will erode the western periphery of the ridge, combining with a weak upper-level low moving north out of Baja California to put the area in weak southwesterly flow aloft. While moisture remains sparse with this system, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly to generate localized afternoon breezes. Sunday will see this weak southwesterly flow aloft continuing. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued 347 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026 Temperatures will remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Monday, however the pattern change will be actively underway. Through the rest of the week, a high amplitude trough will become a cut off low in southern California and linger in the Great Basin. As the trough builds along the West Coast Monday evening, increasing clouds and breezy conditions in SE Oregon are expected. Temperatures will cool off Tuesday as a front move through, cooling temperatures down to near-normal; low-mid 60s for the afternoon high in lower elevations, low 50s for mountain valleys. The cloud cover and increasing chance of precipitation Tuesday evening through Thursday evening could help to moderate temperatures further, however precipitation confidence at this time is low. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1230 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026 VFR with mostly clear skies. Smoke from prescribed burns will locally reduce visibility. Local LLWS will develop overnight near the top of the inversion in the lower Snake Plain. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt through Saturday. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 15-25 kt. KBOI...VFR with easterly winds through Saturday. Weekend Outlook...VFR conditions, with periods of high cloud cover. Breezy easterly winds on Saturday will drop to 10 kt or less on Sunday. Winds aloft will remain out of the SW. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....DG SHORT TERM...CH LONG TERM....CH  125 FXUS63 KEAX 161859 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 159 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds will diminish with temperatures falling into the 30s throughout Friday evening. - Near to below freezing temperatures possible over northern areas late Friday night into Saturday morning. - A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning with a Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area. - Temperatures in the 70s and 80s return for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 With the advection of cooler air in the wake of yesterdays cold front, temperatures throughout the rest of the day today will be in the upper 40s and low 50s. Synoptically, a 500mb positively tilted trough is digging over our region, with strong winds aloft as the jet stream passes right overhead. This has allowed for a large pressure gradient in response to high pressure over the western Great Plains, and the low pressure system that exited to our east yesterday. As a result, expect gusty winds out of the north up to 30mph, before diminishing in the evening hours as we lose the daytime mixing. Throughout the evening and overnight hours, the surface high to our west, along with dry air to our north will both approach our area. This will help push off any remaining cloud cover, and allow temperatures to drop into the 30s. Portions of areas north of Interstate 70 will likely dip down into the low 30s, prompting the issuance of a Freeze Warning to our northern counties. The rest of the area will get down into the mid-30s, with many of those areas having a Frost Advisory in effect. Precaution will include protecting any sensitive plants, crops, and vegetation. Saturday and Sunday will be quiet as our trough moves off to the east, along with the high pressure approaching. We will also see little if any cloud cover this weekend, as drier air advects from our north. Temperatures will also climb back up into the 60s, especially on Sunday as pressure heights increase and warm air advection moves into our region. Conditions will remain quiet throughout next week, with the ridge staying in place, and allowing southerly flow to advect warm air. Temperatures then will return into the 70s and 80s by the middle part of the week. While this happens, a trough will begin to develop off the west coast, and will strengthen as it interacts with a subtropical jet. As this disturbance gets its act together, it will move into our area by late next week and into the weekend. Exact timing and effects still remain to be seen, as certainty will increase as we get closer to the time period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Currently at our TAF sites, we are seeing overcast skies with 2500- 3500 ft agl ceilings, promoting the area to be a critical threshold between MVFR and VFR. There is a north wind of around 15-20kts, with gusts to 30kts. Winds will diminish during the evening as we lose the daytime mixing. Cloud cover will also decrease as dry air from the north advects into our area. As a result, clear sky conditions will be likely after 0300z, and throughout the day tomorrow. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>007- 011>016-020. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ008-017- 021>025-028>033-037>039-043-044. KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-060- 103>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bjork AVIATION...Bjork  868 FXUS65 KPUB 161853 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1253 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hard freeze most (but not all) of plains tonight. - Warm dry weather most of plains into late week. - Quite a bit of beneficial moisture for the Continental Divide (especially San Juans) during most of this period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1250 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Main concern in the short term will be cold temperatures early tomorrow morning. Guidances continues to show temperatures falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s over nearly all of the plains. For this reason a Freeze Warning has been issued for the plains. With that said, some of the plains will likely stay above freezing as downslope flow is expected along the mtn/plains interface, and areas just immediately east of the mtns will likes stay above freezing. I should note that the San Luis Valley has had a hard freeze the last couple of night, and thus no more frost/freeze highlights will be issued for the SLV. For tomorrow, it will start to warm up, and temperature will warm up into the lower 70s most of the plains, with 60s in the valleys. It will be dry across the region tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The good new in the long term forecast is we are likely to see quite a bit of precipitation during this period over the western sections of the forecast area, especially along the San Juan mountains. By Sunday, moisture will increase over the southwest US and push to the northeast. Showers will develop over the San Juans by late Sunday as a weak disturbance over the SW moves over the region. A more substantial trough is forecast to develop over the Pacific Northwest Monday and then slowly amplify and drop south-southeast through the week. This trough promises to bring much more substantial moisture to the San Juans by mid week. This troughiness is expected to continue over the region into next weekend. For the remainder of the region, especially the plains, It will likely remain dry and unseasonably warm. Expect max temps on the plains to be in the 70s to around 80F during this period, which is about 15 degrees above normal for this time of the year. The best chance of some precip over the lower elevations will not occur until next weekend. Although the ContDvd is likely to see quite a bit of precip, temps are unseasonably warm, so snow levels will likely be quite high, The best chance for substantial accumulating snow over most of the mtns will not occur until the trough is actually moving over the region, and this will not occur until mid to late week. \/Hodanish && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1104 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be very light and diurnally driven. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ083>089-093>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...HODANISH  654 FXUS62 KKEY 161806 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 206 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An extended period of wet and windy conditions will develop across the Florida Keys this weekend as a cold front arrives. Drier conditions may gradually return by the early to middle part of next week, but winds are forecast to remain elevated. - A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required beginning Saturday night or early Sunday for the Gulf waters, spreading across the remaining waters during the day on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current water vapor imagery and CIMSS steering products depict a broad anticyclone centered to the northeast of the Bahamas and a mid to upper-level trough deepening over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Ahead of the trough, current surface analysis depicts a cold front extending southwest from a surface low over Quebec through the Ohio Valley and into the northwestern Gulf. This front will continue to surge southeastward through tomorrow as the trough reaches the Eastern Seaboard. We currently have isolated showers and an occasional thunderstorm in the Straits being generated by weak speed convergence in the southeasterly low-level flow. As the mid- level trough axis nudges into the Gulf tonight, synoptic scale lift will begin to arrive across our forecast area while the Atlantic ridge becomes dampened to the east. This will promote an increased coverage of showers and storms through the overnight hours into Saturday morning, particularly as energy associated with an inverted trough near the Yucatan is lifted northward. The cold front will move southeast through the Gulf tomorrow morning and should be knocking on our doorstep by tomorrow evening. All in all, the weekend looks like a mess of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms and rapidly freshening breezes by Saturday night as a strong pressure gradient builds in. It now appears likely that we will have moderate to fresh, occasionally strong, northeasterly breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters from Saturday night through at least Monday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for all of the Florida Keys coastal waters. By Monday, although the winds will stay elevated, latest model solutions suggest the front should stall in the Straits of Florida as mid to upper-level dry air advects south across the area. In addition, potential is increasing for the development of a strong nor'easter off the Carolina coast. It's uncertain exactly how long this feature will loiter next week, but combined with a building ridge axis centered near the Mississippi River, persistent mid-level northerly flow across the eastern Gulf and along the Florida Peninsula should help to force the frontal boundary and drier post- frontal airmass further south which will support decreased shower/storm activity across the forecast area by mid-week, at least for locations along and north of the Island Chain. If we're lucky, there could be a noticeable decrease in humidity as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the waters surrounding the Florida Keys. Gentle to moderate east- southeasterly breezes will continue this afternoon as the Atlantic high weakens. A strong cold front will begin to track southeast through the Gulf tonight through tomorrow morning. It will approach the Florida Keys waters Saturday evening promoting higher chances for showers and storms as well as rapidly freshening northeast breezes to moderate to fresh, occasionally strong, by Saturday night into Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for all of the Florida Keys waters by Sunday at the latest as hazardous seas develop. Rain chances are forecast to decrease by early next week as the front moves south of the area. However, winds will likely remain elevated behind the front due to a strong pressure gradient. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will continue at both terminals through the afternoon. There are scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two south of the TAF sites which will begin to lift northward overnight. Introduced a PROB30 for TSRA at both sites from ~06-11Z as hi-res guidance suggests a strong signal for convection lifting northward from Cuba during that time. Increasing moisture and an approaching cold front will support further activity tomorrow, but confidence on impacts at the TAF sites for the end of this cycle is low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 87 77 86 / 60 60 90 90 Marathon 80 86 78 85 / 50 50 80 90 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DM Aviation/Nowcasts....DM Data Acquisition.....DM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  611 FXUS65 KPSR 161805 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1105 AM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind advisories in effect today through Saturday morning across southern Arizona and southeast California, with breezy to windy conditions expected as forecast peak wind gusts reach up to 40-55 mph. - Strong winds on today will likely lead to widespread lofted dust, leading to hazy conditions, and localized dust channels occasionally reducing visibility below one mile. - Dry weather with near normal temperatures the next couple days, then slightly cooler with a slight chances for rain showers this weekend. - A Pacific low pressure system moving down the coast early next week is currently forecast to bring regional rain chances, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures by the middle to latter portions of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid-level WV imagery and RAP40 500mb analysis show the cut off low now developed over southern California and northern Baja, while high pressure continues to strengthen over NW CONUS. The high pressure will be be the driving force for temperatures remaining near normal today. Though the core of the ridge is to the north of the state, H5 heights will still reach between 585-588 dam over the desert SW. As mentioned, near normal afternoon highs can be expected today with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s in the western lower deserts and along the Colorado River Valley, while south-central AZ will maintain highs in the mid to upper 80s. The upper level ridge will quickly pass and move into the Plains by Saturday, allowing heights aloft to dampen and be influenced by the lingering cut off low. This will result in Saturday cooling into the upper 70s to low 80s. This will also be in conjunction with increasing cloud coverage and about a 10-20% chances of light showers/virga across south- central AZ and the eastern high terrain as early as Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, the main weather concern will be winds due to a strong pressure gradient. This may be one of the the strongest easterly gradient wind events of the last decade. With strong winds lofted and blowing dust also poses a threat, especially across dust prone areas. Northerly winds gusts have already developed in the SE CA and along the Colorado River Valley and are under a Wind Advisory through Friday afternoon, where peak gusts between 40-45 mph can be expected. Over the next several hours this morning the surface high will migrate from southern Montana into the southern Plains/southern Rockies region and the pressure gradient will continue to strengthen and shifting the winds from the north to out of the east. Near sunrise this morning the Wind Advisory will expand eastwards into SW and SC Arizona, where gusts between 45-50 mph will be possible, while the Phoenix Metro will be slightly lower with gusts between 35- 45 mph. Winds this strong are likely to pick up a good amount of dust, creating hazy conditions, and will likely lead to some dust channels developing, with reduction in visibilities to under 1 mile at times, depending on land use. Most of the region will be under advisory level by mid afternoon today, while Pinal County and southern Gila County will continue with strong gusts through the overnight periods into late Saturday morning, with locally up to 55 mph over mountain peaks. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The strong pressure gradient and resultant strong easterly winds across southern AZ will weaken heading into Sunday as the strong surface high in the Plains weakens and shifts to the Mid-Atlantic. Winds early Sunday morning will remain elevated over south- central Arizona and the higher terrain with gusts between 20-25 in SC AZ, and 30-35 mph in the higher terrain. Past sunrise these winds will quickly weaken as the upper level pattern continues to quickly shift. The ridge will continue to push eastwards, and the cutoff low will begin to weaken and become an open wave, lifting through the region Sunday- Monday. As the open wave moves drifts through, lingering light showers/virga remain in the forecast, 20-35% Sunday, then 10-20% Monday. This will be confined to the higher terrain areas, where with enough extra lift may be possible for showers to develop. However, if any activity does develop total accumulations are expected to be only a few hundredths, or near zero. For the lower deserts temperatures are expected to rebound back into the mid to upper 80s Sunday and into early next week. By late Monday into Tuesday a troughing feature will begin to dive down the western coastline, however confidence is low in the timing and strength of the feature. This has resulted in a decent amount of spread in temperatures by mid next week. As it stands now temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal Monday- Tuesday then start to fall 6-9 degrees below normal for the later half of the week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1805Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Strong gusty E'rly winds and slantwise visibility reductions due to lofted dust will persist through the rest of the day. E'rly winds will continue to gust consistently up to 20-30 kts, with occasional stronger gusts up to 35 kts, through this afternoon. Strong gustiness should subside tonight at most terminals, but elevated surface speeds in the teens will likely prevail through the overnight hours, with an occasional gust into the 20s. Gusts to 30 kts will still be possible at KSDL after midnight. All terminals will see a resurgence of gusts up to 23-30 kts Saturday morning, but then winds will gradually subside through Saturday afternoon. Slantwise visibility impacts are likely through at least Saturday morning. Thick mid and high cloud decks will spread into the area through the day Saturday. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Breezy conditions through this afternoon will be the main aviation concern. North-northeast flow will be common throughout the period, with periodic gusts upwards of 25 kts (occasionally higher) at KBLH and slightly weaker at KIPL. Mostly clear skies will give way to increasing mid to high clouds through the afternoon at KIPL and by this evening at KBLH. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out overnight, but chances are too low for inclusion in the TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will persist over the region over the next couple of days with mostly clear skies and seasonally low humidities. MinRHs will be between 15-30% across the region through Saturday. Winds will turn easterly over the morning, becoming stronger tonight through Saturday across southern AZ. Winds will be strongest over mountain tops during the overnight and early morning hours tomorrow and Saturday, with gusts up to 50-55 mph. Strong gusty winds will spread more to the lower deserts during the daylight hours and be strongest in the morning through early afternoon today, with gusts up to 40-45 mph. These strong easterlies and 20-25% RHs may still create locally elevated fire weather conditions midday through the afternoon tomorrow, but fuels are not the most receptive after recent rains. The easterly breezes will not be nearly as strong during the day Saturday and will trend down further into Sunday. Light showers are possible this weekend, but the chance for wetting rain is low (<10%). A Pacific trough is expected to bring regional rain chances, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures next week. &&.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Wind Advisory until 3 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ531>534- 536>546-548>551-554-559. Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday for AZZ547-552-553-555- 557-558-560>562. Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ530. CA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ564-565- 568>570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Ryan AVIATION...Benedict FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Ryan  854 FXUS66 KSGX 161809 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1109 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Santa Ana winds will continue through Saturday, with the strongest winds expected today. Hot and dry conditions expected for the coastal basin with moderate to locally major HeatRisk for coastal areas. Santa Ana winds weaken by Sunday, allowing the coastal basin to cool off. Further cooling expected region-wide for next week with widespread rain as a low pressure system moves in from the northwest. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... Upper-level northeasterly flow has combined with a strong offshore surface pressure gradient to produce moderate to locally strong Santa Ana winds. Thus far, the winds have been primarily out of the northeast with the typically windy corridors north of San Diego County being more favored. Upper level winds will turn due east across the region this morning as an upper cut-off low moves to the south. Concurrently, the strong surface high over the northern Plains will migrate southward over the next day. As a result, winds will turn easterly and strengthen in favored zones (San Diego County, southern OC, and the eastern Inland Empire) and weaken slightly elsewhere. Wind gusts today will peak around 50-65 mph along coastal slopes and adjacent foothills (locally higher for east-facing slopes and downwind of the Banning Pass). For the valley, corridors of wind gusts 35-55 mph expected, especially in eastern San Diego County. Winds slowly weaken tonight into Saturday as the easterly flow aloft and the surface pressure gradient both weaken. Gusts on Saturday are expected to peak around 40-55 mph along coastal slopes and foothills (locally higher for east-facing slopes. Corridors of gusts 30-45 mph will continue for the valleys. Santa Ana winds weaken further Saturday night and diminish entirely by Sunday. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will continue through Saturday, though relative humidity values will be slightly higher than they were on Thursday. Some influx of moisture from the south will keep RH values mainly above 15% through the remainder of the event. In fact, there is a slight chance of light showers for southern San Diego County Saturday morning, though there is an even lower chance (5-10%) for any wetting rainfall. Looking forward to next week, the return of onshore flow on Monday will bring cooler weather for the coastal basin. Patchy fog is expected Mon/Tue mornings as the marine layer rebuilds itself. Models continue to become better aligned regarding the strength and track of a robust upper-low pressure system expected to swing through the region mid-next week. This will bring a widespread cooling trend starting next Tuesday and widespread precipitation next Wed-Thu. Precipitation will likely remain light to moderate due to lack of any notable moisture source, though model guidance has trended wetter since yesterday. There is still some disagreement on precipitation amounts and extent of cooling at this time. Elevated winds are also expected for mountains, deserts, and coastal waters. Model solutions diverge by next weekend, though the mean of the guidance leans slightly toward upper troughing. && .AVIATION... 161800Z...Northeast to east winds strongest through and below foothills gusting 30-50 kts, locally 60 kts. This will cause MOD-STG downdrafts in lee (south and west) of mountains, along with areas of LLWS. Winds will gradually weaken after 00Z, but continue with a slightly more easterly direction. More weakening expected Saturday after 11Z. Otherwise...SCT high clouds and VFR conditions expected through this evening, with increasing clouds above 10 kft especially near Mexico. && .MARINE... Isolated northeast gusts could exceed 20 knots today into early Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... A south swell increasing Sunday and Monday will bring elevated surf of 3 to 5 feet with sets to 7 feet for Monday and Tuesday. While surf and rip currents will be elevated, high tides will not be particularly high, and the threat of coastal flooding is minimal. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Valleys. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for San Bernardino County Mountains. High Wind Warning until midnight PDT Saturday night for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. High Wind Warning until noon PDT Saturday for Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Wind Advisory until noon PDT Saturday for Orange County Inland Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...KW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM  015 FXUS63 KDLH 161835 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 135 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather risk is possible Saturday, but lesser confidence than over the last few days. - A very chilly night and widespread freeze tonight, then a gradual warming trend into and through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Satellite and radar imagery show quickly decrease coverage of light and widely scattered rain showers over north-cental Wisconsin this afternoon. For the rest of the day, northerly winds will quickly decrease from west to east as high pressure moves overhead tonight under a passing mid-level ridge. Expect a wind shift to the southwest overnight, with winds actually increasing in speed as a southwesterly low-level jet builds over northern Minnesota early Saturday morning. This setup creates the lowest temperatures tonight in north-central Minnesota shortly after midnight, then stabilizing or actually increasing towards the dawn hours Saturday morning. Meanwhile, calm winds under strong radiational cooling for northwest Wisconsin will allow temperatures to continue to drop out into the mid to upper 20s tonight. Expect a hard freeze tonight, but the Duluth office has ended the frost and freeze headlines for the season given earlier widespread freeze conditions, so no headlines are in effect for this hard freeze. Saturday will feature breezy southwest winds as drier air mixes down to the surface. The forecast continues to resemble about a 20 to 30th percentile of guidance for relative humidity tomorrow, which puts minimum relative humidity values of 30 to 38 percent in the forecast. These values are just above near-critical conditions and have actually trended upwards in recent forecasts, so no Special Weather Statements are in effect covering Saturday. However, folks should still be aware of an elevated fire weather risk Saturday mid-day to early evening due to the combination of this semi-dry air and breezy winds. The pattern shifts to feature no precipitation and warming Sunday onward. Continued breezy southwest winds Sunday morning areawide will decrease in speed from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. High temperatures will continue their upward climb, and we will be back into the mid 60s for the next work week with predominantly dry weather dominating the Northland. The exception will be a couple of days of lake breezes keeping shoreline areas right at normal for mid-October. Heading deeper into the next work week, the predominantly quiet and unseasonably mild weather remains locked in as an upper- level ridge anchors itself over the central portion of the Continent and two coastal low pressure systems remain over the Mid-Atlantic and California/Baja region. There are very low- end, 10 to 20 percent, chances of light rain late next work week as a ripple moving through the broad and warm upper- level ridge may occur. However, there is very low confidence on this scenario at this time, and dry conditions remain heavily favored. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Broken MVFR ceilings lift to VFR and slowly scour out in coverage late afternoon to early evening today. Expect the last few rain showers as well through 20Z today for inland north- central Wisconsin. The strong and gusty northerly winds early this afternoon decrease quickly from 20Z - 23Z today before mainly light and variable winds setup tonight. For those areas that do remain under 10 knots after 06Z tonight, a few hour period of low-level wind shear is forecast into sunrise hours Saturday morning as a southwest jet moves overhead. Winds begin to mix out from that southwest jet Saturday daytime for anotherbreezy day, but from the southwest tomorrow. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Hazardous marine conditions are expected for small crafts from now through Sunday afternoon, the exception being a possible short winds tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this evening as gusts near 30 knots and elevated waves continue. Winds will subside briefly tonight before shifting to the southwest and increasing across Western Lake Superior again early Saturday morning. A few hour period of low- end Gale-force winds are possible off the Bayfield Peninsula so this will be monitored for any localized and short-duration Gale Warning needs Saturday morning....otherwise Small Craft Advisories are expected to be needed in time for Saturday. There is higher confidence on even stronger and more widespread southwest gusts of 25 to 35 knots are expected Saturday night into Sunday afternoon, very likely also necessitating additional Small Craft Advisories or Gale Warnings. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds weaken this afternoon as high pressure centered over the Lower Midwest takes hold into the Upper Midwest. Drier air mixing down on Saturday will bring minimum relative humidity values of 30 to 38 percent. When combined with breezy southwest winds gusting to 22 to 28 mph, an elevated fire weather risk is possible Saturday mid-day into early evening. Minimum relative humidity recovers slightly to the 35 to 45 percent range on Sunday while gusty southwest winds continue. No rain chances and warming temperatures are expected to persist well into next week. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140>147. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ148- 150. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...NLy MARINE...NLy FIRE WEATHER...NLy