850 FXUS61 KOKX 162000 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 400 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze watch issued for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and interior southern CT for Saturday night. Gale Watch issued for the ocean waters beyond 20nm Saturday night, elsewhere Gale Watches converted to Small Craft Advisories tonight through Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will move through the area this evening, preceded by a line of showers and a few strong, to possibly severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds gusts are possible with any severe storms. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW winds late tonight into Saturday. 3) Coastal low to form along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday and to linger through much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... An amplifying upper trough across eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states will send a strong cold front across the area this evening. Enhanced W/SW winds ahead of the trough with 45 to 55 kt of deep-layered shear and marginal instability will produce a line of showers and a few thunderstorm along or just ahead of the front. Low clouds which have persisted across the region much of the day will dissipate and lift out ahead of the approaching cold front. The greatest uncertainty is whether the airmass can destabilize sufficiently for convection to bring these stronger wind downs to the surface. SPC HREF MAX SB CAPE values are 500-750 J/KG. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows these values over south central PA, which are forecast to expand north and east the next few hours. The one offsetting factor to the lack of instability is the strong vertical wind shear, which may be the reason many of the CAMs are still pointing toward a fine line of convection moving into the NW portions of the Lower Hudson Valley by 6 pm, then racing the line south and east toward the CT coast, NYC metro, and western LI from 7 to 8 pm. The line likely weakens heading east due to decreasing instability. Shear profiles are mainly unidirectional, with some increase in low-level helicity, but main impact will be strong gusty winds, possible bowing line segments. Tornado threat is low (less than 5 percent) from NYC north and west. What is left of the decaying line likely passes offshore in the 9 to 10 pm time frame. However, models continue to support of period of pose-frontal rain after midnight across coastal locations with the approach of the upper trough and jet dynamics. The best chance at this time looks to be east of the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC. Much of the rain will push east of the area by mid to late morning hours. Expect a quick quarter to half-inch of rainfall with the heavier showers or thunderstorms this evening, then lighter amounts overnight at the coast with any rain. Much colder air follows behind the cold front for the weekend with highs only getting into the 50s for Saturday, about 10 degrees below normal. Gust NW winds develop late tonight with gusts 20 to 30 mph through the day Saturday before gradually subsiding Saturday evening. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Freeze watch in effect Saturday night for portions of the interior as strong high pressure builds in from the west. Lows across the watch area area forecast to get close to freezing with the mid 30s to around 40 elsewhere. The one limiting factor will be north winds which likely stay up enough to keep coastal locations from getting to freezing. Should winds drop off more than currently forecast, freezing temperatures and frost may need to be expanded south. && .KEY MESSAGE 3... As the upper trough departs the area Saturday night some of its energy gets left behind along the Mid Atlantic coast, where coastal low formations is becoming increasingly likely. A tight pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to the north will produce a prolonged period of gusty northerly flow. Forecast area also looks to be on the northern periphery of some rain during this time. Coastal flooding likely not an issue early in the week, but with a prolonged system there could be issues late in the week as a full moon approaches. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front moves through late day into early evening. IFR/MVFR to start, then VFR late afternoon mainly for the city terminals. Line of showers with potential thunderstorms anticipated for most terminals in the 22-00z time frame, except no chance of thunder anticipated for KISP/KGON. Westerly gusts with this line of showers would mostly likely end up 30-40kt. Winds up to this point mainly SW with gusts around 20kt developing in the afternoon. VFR for all by midnight tonight with NW-N winds gusting mostly 20-25kt. Showers expected for KISP/KGON through the overnight hours, but could be possible elsewhere except KSWF through the night. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... IFR could last until around 19z. Timing of flight category changes could be off by 1-2 hours. Thunderstorm threat timing could be off by about an hour. Isolated gusts 40 to 50 kt are possible with any thunderstorm. Chance of MVFR in showers through tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday PM: VFR. N winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Monday: VFR. Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR likely, a chance of MVFR in -shra and a chance of NE wind G25-30kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale watch converted to SCA for all waters, except the outer ocean zones, where the gale watch has been delayed until Saturday night. Expect a prolonged period of rough conditions, particularly on the ocean waters through the period. A strong cold frontal passage this evening will result in a strong N flow later tonight through Saturday. Winds diminish some Saturday night on the non-ocean waters and the remaining waters on Sunday. However, due to low pressure nearly stationary along the Mid Atlantic Sunday into next week, there is the potential for gales on the ocean and SCA conditions elsewhere. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NYZ067-068. NJ...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ380-383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...JC MARINE...DW  294 FXUS63 KICT 162007 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 307 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The first freeze/frost of the season expected for most of the area tonight/Saturday morning. - Temperatures expected to rebound this weekend through the end of next week. 80-degree highs are possible to return by mid- week. - Little to no precipitation is forecast over the next 6-7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND... Water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis this afternoon shows a sharp and vigorous deep layer trough progressing eastward out of the central CONUS, a weak upper low southwest of southern California, and a building upper ridge across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a potent post-frontal airmass continues to dominate the central plains with gusty northern winds supporting continue strong low-level CAA. However, as a surface ridge slides into Kansas tonight, winds are expected to quickly decrease become nearly calm by late tonight. These calm winds, along with clear skies, should allow for ample radiational cooling. It's likely much of the area will see their first frost and/or freeze of the season, especially across central Kansas. With dewpoints in the upper 20s, and such optimal conditions for radiational cooling, one would think that the bottom may fall out on min temps overnight; however, soil temps in the 50s and 60s should somewhat limit how cold conditions get overnight/early Saturday morning. Still lows will generally range from the upper 20s across central Kansas to the mid 30s across southeast Kansas. The surface ridge sliding eastward on Saturday, along with modest pressure falls across the High Plains, should support the return of southerly low level flow as soon as Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will gradually rebound this weekend with highs on Saturday and Sunday in the 60s. Overnight lows in the mid 30s Saturday night could be just cold enough for areas of frost once again, then overnight lows Sunday night will be a bit more mild with 40s expected area-wide. ...NEXT WEEK... Deterministic and ensemble guidance next week signals a rather stagnant mid/upper level pattern. Persistent deep layer troughing is anticipated across the western CONUS, and mid/upper ridging will remain stuck over the central and southern plains. With persistent southwesterly upper flow over the southern Rockies, a standing surface trough will remain across the High Plains and encourage steady southerly low-level flow. This pattern supports a high likelihood that temperatures will rebound quickly next week, and highs could return to the 80s as soon as Wednesday. These above average highs should continue through the end of next week. In general, moisture looks to hold off over the next 6-7 days. Long range global models are hinting at the possibility that moisture from another tropical cyclone off the west coast of Mexico could be pulled northward into the southern and central plains next weekend. That being said, there are still a number a details that still need to be ironed out between now and then. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Main aviation concern will be gusty winds for the next few hours. North winds will continue gusting in the 30-35kt range for the next few hours but will quickly decrease as sunset approaches. Area of low VFR cigs moved through the area and are still lingering across southeast KS. Confidence is high that they will stay at VFR levels before clearing out. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033- 047>051-067-082. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ052-053- 068>072-083-091>095-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...RBL  738 FXUS61 KLWX 162010 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 410 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for the majority of the forecast area through 8 PM this evening. A Freeze Watch was issued for location to the west of the Blue Ridge for Saturday night into early Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Severe Thunderstorms are possible this evening as a strong cold front moves through. - 2) Frost and/or freezing temperatures are possible this weekend. - 3) Nor'easter to develop off the Carolina coast late in the weekend lingers much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe Thunderstorms are possible this evening as a strong cold front moves through. Skies remain mostly sunny across the majority of the forecast area, which has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 80s. Dewpoints have also risen into the 60s to near 70 within southerly flow. This unseasonably warm and humid airmass coupled with cooling temperatures aloft are allowing instability to build over the area. Thunderstorms are in the process of forming along a strong cold front which is just starting to move into western MD and the WV Panhandle. The coverage of storms is expected to gradually increase as the front moves into an environment further east characterized by slightly higher instability, with the greatest coverage of storms expected to the east of the Blue Ridge this evening where the highest dewpoints (upper 60s to near 70) are located. Confidence in the timing of the storms is very high since they're forming directly along the front. The storms are located over Western MD and the WV Panhandle currently, should reach the Blue Ridge by around 5-6 PM, impact the I-95 corridor between 6 and 8 PM, and then Southern MD shortly thereafter. In terms of hazards, damaging winds appears to be the primary threat, with ample flow in place just off the surface. With around 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear, some supercellular or bowing structures could be possible, which could locally enhance the threat for damaging winds. However, relatively weak low-level lapse rates could be a limiting factor for damaging winds. As thunderstorm coverage increases to the east of the Blue Ridge, we'll also be losing daytime heating, which will only make the low-level lapse rates even poorer. While the environment doesn't appear to be the most favorable for tornadoes, a brief tornado or two can't be completely ruled out. The threat for severe thunderstorms will immediately come to an end once the front moves through, with winds picking up out of the northwest behind the front. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for the majority of the forecast are through 8 PM. KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost and/or freezing temperatures are possible this weekend. Strong cold advection will ensue within northwesterly flow behind the cold front tonight through the day tomorrow. Upslope showers in the Alleghenies may even end as a few flakes of snow late tonight, but no accumulation is expected. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the 40s by daybreak tomorrow (mid- upper 30s mountains). A few showers could linger from Central Virginia to Southern Maryland tomorrow morning, but gradual clearing is expected tomorrow afternoon as the upper trough axis progresses to our east and large scale subsidence starts to increase. Temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow, with highs in the 50s (40s mountains). High pressure will gradually build in from the west tomorrow night as a nor'easter simultaneously starts to develop off the Carolina coastline. The main question tomorrow night is which locations will decouple. The setup for radiational cooling will be nearly ideal in locations that go calm, with clear skies expected and dewpoints in the 20s. Temperatures will likely plummet into the 20s and lower 30s where winds go calm. Confidence is currently the highest for winds going calm to the west of the Blue Ridge, with greater uncertainty with respect to the winds further east as the nor'easter develops offshore. A Freeze Watch has been issued to the west of the Blue Ridge, where confidence is highest for sub-freezing temperatures. Some frost or sub-freezing temperatures can't be ruled out further east, either. Forecast confidence decreases further moving into Sunday. Forecast models show considerable spread with respect to the location of the aforementioned nor'easter during that time period. Some solutions keep the system offshore, while others have it retrograding further westward, which could lead to impacts locally. KEY MESSAGE 3...Nor'easter to develop off the Carolina coast late in the weekend lingers much of next week. Part of the upper trough that swings through tonight into Saturday will cutoff along the front stalling to the south later this weekend. This result in the development of a nor'easter off the Carolina coast. This system then meanders offshore/near the coast, but guidance varies widely on its placement and strength. Since it will be cut off from the main steering flow, it could persist much of next week. Northeast breezes and occasional rain chances are possible, with the highest chances further east. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions have improved back to VFR. Winds will gust to around 15-25 knots out of the south to southwest this afternoon. A cold front will approach from the northwest later this afternoon into this evening. A line of thunderstorms is expected to form along the front, and will move through the terminals from west to east over the next several hours, potentially leading to a brief period of restrictions. Winds shift to out of the northwest and pick up behind the front this evening. North to northwesterly winds will then gust to around 20 to 30 knots through the day tomorrow. Other then a potential brief period of MVFR ceilings at CHO late tonight, VFR conditions are expected tonight through this weekend. Winds this weekend will be out of the north to northeast as a coastal low develops offshore. Some rain or sub-VFR could develop Mon-Tue with a nor'easter lurking offshore, especially for areas further east. NE winds could become breezy at times depending on how close the system gets. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through the afternoon in southerly flow. A line of thunderstorms is expected to form along an approaching cold front this afternoon and then move over the waters this evening. SMWs may be needed as thunderstorms move over the waters this evening. Winds then shift to out of the northwest behind the front tonight, with SCA gusts continuing. Gale Warnings go into effect to the south of the Bay Bridge tomorrow and continue tomorrow night. SCAs remain in effect elsewhere through tomorrow night. After that, attention turns to a nor'easter that is forecast to develop offshore. SCA conditions likely continue through the day Sunday in northeasterly flow, but forecast uncertainty during that time period remains high. NE winds around a nor'easter to the south may remain gusty much of next week. In fact, gales are possible at times over the wider/southern waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Anomalies will remain elevated within southerly flow this afternoon into this evening. Annapolis remain under a Coastal Flood Advisory through the tide cycle this evening. Water levels are forecast to rapidly decrease within northwesterly flow behind a strong cold front tonight into Saturday. Water levels may rapidly rise again onSunday as a coastal low develops offshore and winds turn to more out of the northeast. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ008. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for MDZ003-501-502-509-510. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014. VA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508. WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ050>053-055-501>506. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ530-531- 538>542. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ532>534- 537-543. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ532>534-537-543. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ535-536. && $$ DISCUSSION...DHOF/KJP AVIATION...DHOF/KJP MARINE...DHOF/KJP  915 FXUS65 KBOI 162013 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 213 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend, with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Wednesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... A high amplitude upper ridge currently covering the Pac NW will give way to shortwave energy that will push into BC, Canada this weekend. Saturday is the warmest day with temperatures around 10 degrees above normal, or solidly in the 70s across lower elevations. Sunday brings several degrees of cooling in response to the passing upper trough. Breezy south to east winds will fade on Sunday in response a weakening surface high along the Continental Divide and decrease in the flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Through the week, a high amplitude trough will become a cut off low in southern California and linger in the Great Basin. As the trough builds along the West Coast Monday evening, increasing clouds and breezy conditions in SE Oregon are expected. Residual dry conditions with the wind will support elevated fire weather, though impacts will be minimal as the low continues to move in. Temperatures will cool off Tuesday as a front moves through, cooling temperatures down to near-normal; low-mid 60s for the afternoon high in lower elevations, low 50s for mountain valleys. Ensemble guidance largely favors another cold front on Thursday as the low moves weakens and rejoins the broader flow. This will lead to even cold temperatures, about 5 degrees below normal, Thursday and Friday. Colder temps are accompanied by the best chances for precipitation across much of the area, with valley rain and mountain snow possible. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1230 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026 VFR with mostly clear skies. Smoke from prescribed burns will locally reduce visibility. Local LLWS will develop overnight near the top of the inversion in the lower Snake Plain. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt through Saturday. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 15-25 kt. KBOI...VFR with easterly winds through Saturday. Weekend Outlook...VFR conditions, with periods of high cloud cover. Breezy easterly winds on Saturday will drop to 10 kt or less on Sunday. Winds aloft will remain out of the SW. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....DG  872 FXUS66 KLOX 162013 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 113 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...15/1247 PM. A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind will bring widespread strong winds and critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down is expected Sunday with a chance of widespread rain by Tuesday or Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...16/112 PM. Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the period. At upper levels, low to the southwest will undercut the ridge this weekend. At the surface, offshore gradients will gradually weaken with weak onshore gradients returning Sunday and Monday. Forecast-wise for the short term, main issues remain Santa Ana winds and the heat. As mentioned, offshore gradients will continue through Sunday morning, but will exhibit a weakening trend. At the same time, the upper level support will also weaken. So, will expect the offshore winds to decrease. So, with the afternoon forecast, have extended the current WIND ADVISORIES through 200 PM Saturday. For the LA county mountains, will let the HIGH WIND WARNINGS continue through 800 PM this evening and have issued WIND ADVISORIES from 800 PM this evening through 200 PM Saturday. By Saturday night and Sunday morning, the offshore winds should diminish below advisory levels with a return of weak onshore winds Sunday afternoon through Monday. The second concern is the heat. With the continued offshore flow, very warm conditions will persist through Saturday. Based on current Heat Risk forecasts, the coastal plain will continue at HEAT ADVISORY levels through Saturday evening. So, will continue with the HEAT ADVISORIES through 800 PM Saturday. For Sunday and Monday, a welcome cooling trend is expected with the return of onshore flow and lowering thicknesses. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...16/112 PM. For the extended period, models are in decent synoptic agreement through the period. Main feature of note will be an upper low, dropping south off the CA coast on Tuesday then moving inland across the area on Wednesday and Thursday. Models differ slightly in the speed of this low moving across the area, but those differences should be minimal. So, forecast-wise, main concern in the extended period will be rain chances, associated with the upper low. Looking at the ensembles, most every member from every model indicates some amount of rain between Tuesday night and Thursday morning. However, the range of potential amounts remains quite large. At this time, ensemble means indicate totals between 0.25 and 1.00 inches which is a reasonable early estimate. There is about a 20-30% chance of totals greater than 1.00 inch. Will continue to monitor this situation closely as potential amounts are likely to change from day-to-day. Other than the rain chances, no significant issues are expected. Temperatures will experience a noticeable cooling trend with high temperatures only topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. At this time, no significant wind issues are expected. && .AVIATION...16/1644Z. At 16Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. High confidence in VFR conditions, unless a fire breaks out upwind of an airport. NE-E winds will dominate the next 24 hours, with UDDF near any mountains and LLWS 10-20 knots near most airports, especially those with winds above 20 knots. Moderate confidence on wind forecasts (speed +/- 5 mph and direction +/- 30 degrees). KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday. High confidence in east winds dominating today with little to no west influence. Moderate confidence in speed and timing. 60% chance of eastwinds in the 8-12 knot range from 18 to 24Z. LLWS 5-15 knots also possible in the 16Z-02Z window. East winds will go below 08 knots by 03Z. There is a 20% chance of east winds around 8 knots returning Saturday 16-20Z. KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday. High confidence in east winds dominating today with little to no south influence. LLWS 15-25 knots also possible at times in the 16Z-06Z window. && .MARINE...16/104 PM. NE to E winds will bring short period and hazard seas to many nearshore waters into Saturday. Winds will be strongest from Ventura to Santa Monica where winds where pockets of 20 to 30 knot winds will form at times. This is a touch lower than earlier today, so the previous Gale Warning has been replaced with a Small Craft Advisory. Gusts of 10 to 20 knots will likely also affect the nearshore Central Coast waters as well as the waters from Orange County to Catalina Island. These winds will likely have rapid fluctuations. Benign conditions expected on Sunday. If you have the option, go out on Sunday and try to stay off the waters Friday and Saturday. Small Craft Advisory NW winds will increase Sunday Night and Monday, especially off the Central Coast. A moderate- strength storm system is becoming more likely in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Saturday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Saturday for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354>358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 342-345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Saturday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Thompson AVIATION...RK MARINE...RK SYNOPSIS...MW/Lewis weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  829 FXUS66 KSGX 162011 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 111 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Santa Ana winds expected through Saturday, with the strongest and most widespread winds today. Additionally, moderate to major HeatRisk is expected for coastal areas. Cooler conditions will spread inland Sunday, with greater cooling, increase in westerly winds, and chance of showers for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Gusty winds are being observed across Southern California, with the strongest winds being observed on mountain foothills and below passes and canyons. Top 3 wind gusts over the past 48 hours were Buckman Springs with a gust of 82 mph, a 80 mph gust in Hellhole Canyon, and a 78 mph gust in Sill Hill. Over the past 12 hours the top 3 wind gusts are Hellhole Canyon, Sill Hill, and Banning with a gust of 73 mph. A more comprehensive peak wind gust report is headlined on our weather.gov/sandiego homepage. Winds have peaked across the area and are expected to begin to weaken through this evening into Saturday. That being said, winds will remain elevated into Saturday especially for places prone to east winds. Peak wind gusts for Saturday will be 35 to 55 mph, with gusts to 60 mph confined to wind prone locations. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will continue through Saturday, though relative humidity values will increase on Saturday. Some influx of moisture from the south will keep relative humidity values above 15% through the remainder of the event. In fact, there is a slight chance of light showers for southern San Diego County Saturday morning, though there is an even lower chance (5-10%) for any wetting rainfall. High temperatures will peak today, gradually decreasing through the weekend into early next week. By Tuesday, most locations are expected to be running a few degrees below average near the coast to up to 10 degrees below average for inland locations. With those cooling conditions we're monitoring for the potential for elevated westerly winds and precipitation. The most likely time for precipitation looks to be Wednesday and Thursday, but some locations further north have the potential to see precipitation as early as Tuesday afternoon or evening. Precipitation will likely remain light to moderate due to lack of any notable moisture source, though model guidance has trended wetter since yesterday. There is still some disagreement on precipitation amounts. We'll have more details in the coming days. && .AVIATION... 161800Z...Northeast to east winds strongest through and below foothills gusting 30-50 kts, locally 60 kts. This will cause MOD-STG downdrafts in lee (south and west) of mountains, along with areas of LLWS. Winds will gradually weaken after 00Z, but continue with a slightly more easterly direction. More weakening expected Saturday after 11Z. Otherwise...SCT high clouds and VFR conditions expected through this evening, with increasing clouds above 10 kft especially near Mexico. && .MARINE... Isolated northeast gusts could exceed 20 knots today into early Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... A south swell increasing Sunday and Monday will bring elevated surf of 3 to 5 feet with sets to 7 feet for Monday and Tuesday. While surf and rip currents will be elevated, high tides will not be particularly high, and the threat of coastal flooding is minimal. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Valleys. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for San Bernardino County Mountains. High Wind Warning until midnight PDT Saturday night for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. High Wind Warning until noon PDT Saturday for Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Wind Advisory until noon PDT Saturday for Orange County Inland Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CO AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM  001 FXUS61 KPBZ 162015 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 415 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Thunderstorm threat has ended for today. A Freeze Watch was issued for Saturday night due to the high probability for temperatures to drop to/below 32F. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and gusty wind through tonight 2) Colder with frost and freeze conditions Saturday night, with frost possible again Sunday night 3) Dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In the wake of this afternoon's pre-frontal trough passage, expect light showers and gusty wind with a tight pressure gradient and mixing. Wind gusts should hold in the 25-35 mph range in the lowlands and possibly up to 40 mph in the ridges. The probability for advisory criteria >46 mph remains low. A deepening upper-level trough is forecast to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight into tomorrow morning. Overall coverage of showers should decrease into the overnight hours, though some scattered lake enhanced showers are possible within the cold advection regime. The precipitation should be tapering off by the time the coldest air arrives Saturday morning. With that said, there is a potential for a few snowflakes mixing in north of I-80 and in the ridges with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s, but ground temperatures will be too warm for any flakes to stick. KEY MESSAGE 2... The upper-level trough should exit the East Coast by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, as the surface low deepens/closes off the Carolina coast. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the Upper Ohio Valley region, with light wind and mainly clear skies. This should result in efficient radiational cooling Saturday night resulting in a frost/freeze potential. A Freeze Watch has been issued for region effective on Saturday night. Some frost will be possible again Sunday night with surface high pressure overhead. KEY MESSAGE 3... Model ensembles indicate the upper-level closed low will break away from the trough and persist off of the SE Coast. Over the Western CONUS, another upper-level trough will become relatively stationary by Tuesday, following a Tropical Storm Simon. Areas from the Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region should be under a ridge, with dry weather expected from Sunday into late next week. Temperatures are also expected to moderate back to near or just above seasonable levels by mid week. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A surface cold front will exit the region shortly after the 18z TAF issuance, resulting in ending the risks for gusts 30-45kts and heavier rain associated with its showers/thunderstorms. Broad ascent with the deepening trough to the SSW will favor fairly widespread light rain showers/drizzle through at least 00z with cigs occasionally varying between low MVFR to low VFR and limited visibility impacts. A reinforcing front causing a northerly wind shift aft 00z may result in a second wave of rain that better lowers visibility and offers low probability IFR cig chances. Though drying and subtle cig rises begin after this second frontal passage, cold advection coupled with warm lake waters may result in narrow bands of lake enhanced showers that maintain (or further lower) the fairly predominant MVFR stratus on going. Outlook... Lifting/breaking of residual MVFR to VFR stratocu expected by 14z Saturday as high pressure and ridging build over the region, with clear skies likely by 00z. There is high probability for a prolonged period of VFR dry weather through next week, save for potential for localized morning river valley fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM/MLB/Lupo AVIATION...Frazier  015 FXUS61 KOKX 162015 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 415 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, NYC, SW CT, and western LI. The watch is in effect until 10 PM EDT. Freeze watch issued for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and interior southern CT for Saturday night. Gale Watch issued for the ocean waters beyond 20nm Saturday night, elsewhere Gale Watches converted to Small Craft Advisories tonight through Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will move through the area this evening, preceded by a line of showers and a few strong, to possibly severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds gusts are possible with any severe storms. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW winds late tonight into Saturday. 3) Coastal low to form along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday and to linger through much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM for the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, NYC, SW CT, and western LI. An amplifying upper trough across eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states will send a strong cold front across the area this evening. Enhanced W/SW winds ahead of the trough with 45 to 55 kt of deep-layered shear and marginal instability will produce a line of showers and a few thunderstorms along or just ahead of the front. Low clouds which have persisted across the region much of the day will dissipate and lift out ahead of the approaching cold front. The greatest uncertainty is whether the airmass can destabilize sufficiently for convection to bring these stronger wind downs to the surface. SPC HREF MAX SB CAPE values are 500-750 J/KG. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows these values over south central PA, which are forecast to expand north and east the next few hours. The one offsetting factor to the lack of instability is the strong vertical wind shear, which may be the reason many of the CAMs are still pointing toward a fine line of convection moving into the NW portions of the Lower Hudson Valley by 6 pm, then racing the line south and east toward the CT coast, NYC metro, and western LI from 7 to 8 pm. The line likely weakens heading east due to decreasing instability. Shear profiles are mainly unidirectional, with some increase in low-level helicity, but main impact will be strong gusty winds, possible bowing line segments. Tornado threat is low (less than 5 percent) from NYC north and west. What is left of the decaying line likely passes offshore in the 9 to 10 pm time frame. However, models continue to support of period of pose-frontal rain after midnight across coastal locations with the approach of the upper trough and jet dynamics. The best chance at this time looks to be east of the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC. Much of the rain will push east of the area by mid to late morning hours. Expect a quick quarter to half-inch of rainfall with the heavier showers or thunderstorms this evening, then lighter amounts overnight at the coast with any rain. Much colder air follows behind the cold front for the weekend with highs only getting into the 50s for Saturday, about 10 degrees below normal. Gust NW winds develop late tonight with gusts 20 to 30 mph through the day Saturday before gradually subsiding Saturday evening. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Freeze watch in effect Saturday night for portions of the interior as strong high pressure builds in from the west. Lows across the watch area area forecast to get close to freezing with the mid 30s to around 40 elsewhere. The one limiting factor will be north winds which likely stay up enough to keep coastal locations from gettingto freezing. Should winds drop off more than currently forecast, freezing temperatures and frost may need to be expanded south. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front moves through late day into early evening. IFR/MVFR to start, then VFR late afternoon mainly for the city terminals. Line of showers with potential thunderstorms anticipated for most terminals in the 22-00z time frame, except no chance of thunder anticipated for KISP/KGON. Westerly gusts with this line of showers would mostly likely end up 30-40kt. Winds up to this point mainly SW with gusts around 20kt developing in the afternoon. VFR for all by midnight tonight with NW-N winds gusting mostly 20-25kt. Showers expected for KISP/KGON through the overnight hours, but could be possible elsewhere except KSWF through the night. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... IFR could last until around 19z. Timing of flight category changes could be off by 1-2 hours. Thunderstorm threat timing could be off by about an hour. Isolated gusts 40 to 50 kt are possible with any thunderstorm. Chance of MVFR in showers through tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday PM: VFR. N winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Monday: VFR. Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR likely, a chance of MVFR in -shra and a chance of NE wind G25-30kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale watch converted to SCA for all waters, except the outer ocean zones, where the gale watch has been delayed until Saturday night. Expect a prolonged period of rough conditions, particularly on the ocean waters through the period. A strong cold frontal passage this evening will result in a strong N flow later tonight through Saturday. Winds diminish some Saturday night on the non-ocean waters and the remaining waters on Sunday. However, due to low pressure nearly stationary along the Mid Atlantic Sunday into next week, there is the potential for gales on the ocean and SCA conditions elsewhere. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NYZ067-068. NJ...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ380-383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...JC MARINE...DW  047 FXUS65 KTFX 162017 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 217 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions tomorrow along the northern Rocky Mountain Front, with gusts up to 85 mph possible. - Slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday, followed by seasonably average temperatures through the middle of next week. - Cooler temperatures and increased chances of precipitation late next week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Upper level ridging continues over the region today, bringing mostly sunny skies, dry conditions and above average temperatures. As this afternoon progresses, the ridge will begin to flatten, increasing the pressure gradient and creating windy conditions, mostly confined to the Rocky Mountain Front. The ridge continues to flatten into Saturday, causing the pressure gradient to tighten even more as convergence aloft increases. This will bring strong upper level winds that, combined with diurnal heating and terrain influences, will mix down to the surface along the northern Rocky Mountain Front. This will bring very windy conditions to the northern Rocky Mountain Front, specifically in the area north of Highway 200 and west of I-15. The gusty winds are expected to dissipate by late Saturday evening as the strongest upper level winds move east and diurnal heating subsides. Zonal flow aloft will build again on Sunday, allowing for slightly cooler temperatures and continuing the stretch of dry weather. By Monday morning, weak ridging takes its place as an upper level trough begins to move down the Pacific Coast towards northern California. This will create southwesterly flow aloft by Monday evening, which will last through the middle of next week, allowing for seasonably average temperatures. By Thursday, the trough will have moved south of the Great Basin, creating a more direct southerly flow aloft, before moving northeast towards Wyoming. This will allow temperatures to warm on Thursday before cooling down on Friday. Increased moisture aloft will get carried north by the upper level southerly low, increasing precipitation chances towards the end of next week into next weekend. There remains shearing and splitting in the trough late Thursday into next weekend, so while one can expect cooling temperatures and increased precipitation chances late in the forecast period, confidence in the forecast specifics for this time remains low. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Confidence has increased on stronger winds impacting the northern Rocky Mountain Front Saturday. Models are in good agreement on an increase in the 700 mb winds, now showing around 75-80 kts, and vertical cross sections show these strong winds mixing down to the surface from late Saturday morning to late Saturday night due to diurnal heating and turbulent mixing from the terrain of the Rocky Mountains. As a result, there is also more model agreement on the wind gusts at the surface, with the spread of 10th percentile and 90th percentile wind gusts only being about a 10 mph difference. Due to the stronger 700 mb winds and increased confidence in their timing and location, the High Wind Watch (along the northern Rocky Mountain Front) has now been upgraded to a High Wind Warning, with gusts up to 85 mph possible. Confidence was lower on these stronger 700 mb winds mixing to the surface along the rest of the Hi-Line. Soundings showed a low level inversion across the Hi-Line, which would inhibit mixing. This is supported by the vertical cross sections showing the stronger winds aloft not mixing down to the surface. While windy conditions will still be present across the Hi-Line tomorrow, the lower confidence in the strongest winds being mixed down to the surface resulted in the High Wind Watch not being extended across the Hi-Line. -Dzomba && .AVIATION... 16/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty south/southwesterly winds are expected to continue at KGTF through the rest of the afternoon before tapering off slightly overnight and picking up again Saturday morning as a broader spread of gusty winds fills in across North-Central and Central Montana as well as the Madison Valley (KEKS). The strongest winds will be along the Rocky Mountain Front with gusts up to 55kts possible at KCTB and up to 70kts right along the mountains. Further across the Hi-Line, including KHVR, surface winds will be gusty but a shallow inversion is expected to keep the high winds just above the surface which may lead to instances of LLWS through Saturday evening. Should these stronger winds be able to mix down to the surface, expect gusty winds up to 50kts at KHVR. But currently the probability of occurrence is at 20%. -thor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 46 71 42 61 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 44 68 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 33 71 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 32 65 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 21 56 22 58 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 32 64 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 41 76 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 45 72 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 9 AM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  120 FXUS61 KALY 162018 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 418 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch #687 for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties until 10 pm EDT . Previous... SPC expanded the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) slightly further north to include all of the eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, south- central Taconics, the southern reaches of the Capital District, south- central Berkshires and Litchfield County, CT. The Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) includes the rest of the forecast area, except the southern Adirondacks and most of the Glens Fall Lake George Region. Retooled hourly PoPs and weather late this pm into tonight with the timing of the front with a transition to some snow showers/flurries over the higher terrain including the western Dacks, southern Greens and northern Catskills. Also blended in some NBM90 wind gusts tomorrow afternoon with brisk west/northwest to northwest winds tonight through Saturday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, showers, and a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties late this afternoon into early tonight. 2) Continued gusty winds and unseasonably chilly conditions are expected tonight through Saturday. A coating to a few tenths of an inch of snow are possible in the high terrain late tonight into Saturday morning. 3) Dry weather with temperatures moderating to near seasonable levels late Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe Thunderstorm Watch #687 has been issued for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties until 10 pm EDT. The greatest threat for any severe thunderstorms is from a line or broken line of t-storms that could produce wind gusts 58 mph or greater which could break large tree limbs, down some trees, power poles and lines. The latest SPC RAP Mesoanalysis shows very little SB CAPE on the order of 100 J/kg in the watch area. Some of the CAMS show small amounts of instability 100-250 J/kg with increasing 0-6 km Bulk Shear 50-65 KT. The greatest threat window looks like 5-730 pm. The forecast was updated to include the wording some may be severe for these 3 counties. Some gusty showers or an isolated thunderstorms (winds 35-50 mph) may occur north of the watch area. Previous...A strong cold front continues to approach from west- central NY and PA this afternoon, as low pressure moves towards southern Quebec. A strong positively-tilted trough mid and upper level associated with the system is moving across the eastern Great Lakes Region and the Midwest. Pre- frontal showers continue across the southern Adirondacks and w-central Mohawk Valley. Some breaks in the clouds occurred across the Capital District/Schoharie Valley earlier but stratus has increased again across most of the region. A high shear-low CAPE environment is setting up from the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region/Berkshires south and east. SPC has most of the forecast area in Marginal (Level 1 of 5) or Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) due to some low-topped convection potentially forming that may bring some isolated damaging wind gusts to the southern portion of the forecast area. The latest HREFS/REFS has limited mean SBCAPEs of 100-250 J/kg south of the Capital District over the mid Hudson Valley, southeast Catskills, southern Taconics, and NW CT. The 0-6 km bulk shear increases 40-60+ KT. The CAMs soundings from the 3-km HRRR/ARW-WRF show 800 hPA winds increasing to 45-50 KT with the low to mid level winds very strong. A broken line or strongly- forced line of convection is possible on some of the CAMs with the threat looking the greatest from about Hudson, NY to the I-84 corridor. The question will be if any updraftswill be tall enough to tap into these winds aloft and translate them to the sfc. At the very least, we could be looking at some gusty showers with a rumble of thunder with gusts 30-50 mph which could blow around loosely unsecured objects, and bring down some foliated large tree limbs. The the threat window looks like 3-7 pm before the showers and possibly some embedded strong/potentially severe thunderstorms move east of most of the forecast area with the front. KEY MESSAGE 2... Tonight, in the wake of the cold front brisk/blustery conditions occur, as west/northwest winds 10-20 mph shift to the northwest with the cold advection. Some gusts 25-35 mph will likely occur with a few isolated gusts around 40 mph funneling down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital Region, northern Taconics and the Berkshires. Some gusty winds are also possible over the northern/eastern Catskills. In the wake of the front with the mid and upper trough approaching, some upslope rain to snow showers will occur over the western Dacks and southern Greens. Some light snow accums of a coating to a few tenths of inch may occur. Some light snow showers/flurries could occur over the northern Catskills, northern Taconics and Berkshires due to upslope and lake enhanced showers. The low-level flow quickly veers to the northwest with some multi-bands of lake effect potentially grazing the northern and eastern Catskills Saturday morning. Latest NAEFS indicate H850 temp anomalies will be 1 to 2 STDEVs below normal. The actual H850 temps fall to -6C to -9C from Albany north and west into the Adirondacks to 0C to -6C readings south and east towards the I-84 corridor by daybreak Saturday. Temps will fall quickly with widespread lows in the 30s to lower 40s with some upper 20s over the south/southwest Adirondacks and southern Greens. Wind chill temps or "feels-like" temps when combining the winds with the air temps will be in the teens to mid/upper 20s over the higher terrain with mainly 30s in the valleys with some mid/upper 20s in the western Mohawk Valley. It will feel like early Winter. Upslope and lake effect snow showers/flurries or sprinkles will end in the late morning with the subsidence inversion lowering. The brisk northwest winds will continue with chilly temps with daytime highs only in the 40s in the valleys with a few readings near 50F in the Hudson Valley and 30s to lower 40s over the hills and mtns. The winds will persist from the northwest at 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph due to the sfc pressure gradient and some deeper mixing. We increased gusts slightly blending in the latest NBM 90th percentile. The latest NBM 24-hr probs for gusts >35 mph are low from 2 am Sat to 2 am Sun, as they are only 20-40% over the northern Taconics/northern Berkshires and eastern Catskills. Gusts > 40 mph are less than 15%, so no Wind Advisories expected. Wind Chills/"Feels-like" temps will continue in the 20s and 30s for much of the day. The winds subside fairly quickly Saturday night with the sfc high building in from the Ohio Valley over PA and NY. Lows fall into the 20s to around 30F. The growing season is over, but a widespread frost will occur across the region. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure will be overhead and nearby NY and New England to close the weekend with temps rebounding after a cold start into the mid/upper 40s to mid 50s across eastern NY and western New England with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Another chilly night is expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, but temps moderate to seasonal levels in the 50s to around 60F on Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies. Dry weather and seasonable temps continue through the mid week, as we monitor a potential nor'easter near the Mid Atlantic Coast during the mid week (Tue- Wed time frame).&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z/Saturday...Conditions vary amongst the terminals this afternoon as visible satellite shows some breaks in a largely MVFR stratus deck, forcing isolated VFR conditions, with some scattered IFR heights throughout the region. Latest scans of the ENX radar indicate the significant breaking apart of what was formerly a pre-cold frontal rainband with little threat to impact any of the terminal domains within the next couple of hours. Winds are somewhat variable (southeast to southwest directions) ahead of the incoming cold front, with sustained speeds ranging from about 3 to 11 kt with occasional gusts between 20 to 30 kt at ALB and PSF. While eastward-translating breaks in cloud coverage could allow for additional, brief improvements in ceiling heights over the next couple of hours, the further encroachment of the cold front should reinforce the holes and force the return to consistent MVFR and possible IFR conditions. Additional batches of showers closer accompanying the cold front are beginning to fill into central New York and could impact terminals between 19-00z this afternoon and evening. However, because of the latest trends in the guidance and radar scans, confidence has become lower in the occurrence of showers at ALB, POU, and PSF. These sites were therefore given PROB30s to account for the potential of additional showers while GFL has a TEMPO given enough confidence in brief showers given their proximity to the eastern-most Great Lake. Once the cold front rips through this afternoon and this evening, fairly swift improvements to VFR ceiling heights are expected for all except PSF which could hang on to an MVFR ceiling longer into the overnight. Winds will also become very breezy behind the front, taking on a westerly and then northwesterly direction, with sustained speeds reaching 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt by the end of the 18z cycle. Outlook... Saturday Night to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...12  113 FXUS65 KFGZ 162018 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 118 PM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and windy weather continues through this afternoon. Less breezy on Saturday, then a weather system brings chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday. This active pattern continues through most of next week with continued daily shower chances, occasional gusty winds, and below normal daytime temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...A strong easterly gradient is still present early this afternoon. This has brought very gusty east to northeast winds over the past 24 hours, especially downwind (west/southwest) of terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino counties, as well as in the Little Colorado River Valley. Peak gusts up to 40-50 mph are possible through the rest of the afternoon, and a wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of Northern and Central Arizona through 6 PM MST today. Winds are expected to gradually relax tonight through Saturday as the gradient weakens, however locally gusty winds 30-40 mph will remain possible overnight. Other than the winds, expect cooler than normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions through Saturday afternoon. An upper low currently spinning off the coast of Baja California will slowly push inland across Arizona this weekend, and will be accompanied by another surge of moisture. Upper level clouds start to encroach our area on Saturday afternoon, then chances for showers and thunderstorms return Saturday evening through Sunday- Monday. Most ensemble guidance keeps rainfall accumulations light, but some localized accumulations up to 0.5'' will be possible. Into next week, we remain in a highly active pattern. A deep trough is forecast to strengthen and dive along the California coast on Tuesday, then eventually propagate past Arizona later in the week. Long term ensemble guidance hints that this will bring a deeper moisture surge than this weekend, however there is still plenty of uncertainty on the exact timing/trajectory. The current forecast brings daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday. Besides the precipitation, expect a return to gusty winds by the middle of next week and continued cooler than normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...Friday 16/18Z through Saturday 17/18Z...VFR expected. NE-E winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts through 02Z, then decreasing to 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts. OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/18Z through Monday 19/18Z...Mainly VFR expected. E winds 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Saturday, becoming light and variable through the end of the period. Increasing clouds on Saturday, with ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA possible Saturday night onward. Brief MVFR in heavier showers. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday through Sunday...Cool temperatures with east through southeast winds around 10-20 mph on Saturday, becoming light on Sunday. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening through Sunday over the higher terrain. Minimum RH is 15-35% on Saturday, increasing to 40-70% on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. South winds 5-15 mph on Monday, becoming south-southeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Tuesday, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Wednesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004- 006>008-012>015-037-038. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  468 FXUS63 KJKL 162028 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 428 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers will remain around the area through tonight. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a high risk for frost and freeze conditions area-wide on Saturday night into Sunday morning. - Frost is also anticipated Sunday night into Monday morning for many valley locations. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 420 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 As of mid afternoon, an upper level trough extended into the Great Lakes to the mid MS Valley to Arklatex vicinity to the south of an upper low in Canada. Upper ridging was centered east of the eastern seaboard, while another upper level ridge was centered over the western Conus. At the surface, an area of low pressure was moving across sections of the St Lawrence Valley with a cold front trailing southeast into the Appalachian region and sections of the Southeast to the western Gulf. This boundary is gradually slipping to the east of the VA border. Further west, an area of high pressure was centered in the Central Conus. Locally, in the lower levels, winds are northwesterly/upslope behind the front, while the upper level winds remain southwest in advance of the approaching 500 mb trough axis. A few showers were occurring near the VA border nearer to the front, with additional upslope showers further northwest across eastern KY, while upstream additional areas of showers preceded the 500 mb trough. Temperatures have fallen behind the front, into the 60s in the southeast and 50s further north and west. This evening through Saturday, the upper level trough axis will move east and across the Commonwealth tonight into Saturday morning. Height rises then follow through Saturday and Saturday night. Sfc high pressure gradually builds east and across the OH Valley region and becomes centered in the mid Atlantic to Northeast. For this evening through tonight, moisture will remain in the low to mid levels, gradually decreasing from the north and northwest to southeast late tonight into early Saturday afternoon near the VA border. Shower chances will continue with the approach and passage of the 500 mb trough with lingering upslope flow in the low levels. The low level flow will gradually become more anticyclonic late tonight to early on Saturday and drier air will gradually filter in from the north, ending chances for showers/ patchy light rain first in the north and west late tonight and then later near the VA border on Saturday morning. Clouds will be slower to decrease through the day on Saturday, though bases will lift as drier air advects in from the north to northeast. However, clear skies and gradually slackening winds are anticipated on Saturday night with the sfc high in place across the area. This will set the stage for the coldest readings so far this Fall and widespread lows down into the 30s are expected. Pending how quickly the drier air advects south either a frost or a freeze are possible. The more northern locations will experience the drier air arriving first and will have the highest chance for getting to the 32 degree mark or lower in a more widespread fashion. For now, a Freeze watch was hoisted in coordination with neighboring offices in this area in the far northwest from 05Z/1 AM on Saturday to 13Z/9 AM on Sunday. At least patchy frost if not areas of frost are anticipated for most locations. This continues to be highlighted in the HWO and social media posts. Additional Frost or Freeze headlines are likely to be needed further south as confidence increases. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 The long-term forecast period opens Sunday morning with 500 hPa ridging over the Central CONUS between an ~574 dam low off the Carolina Coast and a ~578 dam low over the Lower Colorado River Basin. The ridging aloft will support strong ~1038 mb surface high pressure situated over the Mid-Atlantic with a ridge axis extending southwest all the way into Texas. The only other feature of note will be a coastal low churning up rough seas off of the Carolinas. The overall synoptic pattern will largely hold in place through the duration of the long-term period -- though some of the upper- level features will become more amplified with time. The surface high center will also propagate northward but all the while maintain a cool and dry north to northeasterly low-level flow into eastern Kentucky. This will keep the air mass over eastern Kentucky slow to modify through the work week. In fact, the combination of dry air and light winds should again favor significant frost or a light freeze on Sunday night into Monday morning in the valleys. While successive nights will gradually turn milder, the pattern remains favorable for renewed light frost formation on Monday and Tuesday nights in the typically colder spots. In sensible terms, expect fair weather and light winds from Sunday through Friday along with a slow warming trend. Daily high temperatures start the week in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday and moderate to the lower to middle 70s by Friday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows range in the 30s on Sunday night with extensive frost probable in valleys, but slowly moderate into mostly the 40s by Thursday night into Friday morning. Patchy frost appears possible in the coldest northern hollows through at least Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 Mainly west to northwest winds in the 8 to 15KT range, with some gusts to near 20KT were observed at issuance time. Mainly VFR and MVFR were reported over the CWA, with some instances of IFR at times primarily within showers. The gusty winds will continue for much of the first 6 hours of the period as a cold front gradually departs and an upper level disturbance approaches. Even after the gusts diminish a bit, west to northwest winds at 5 to 12KT linger through 06Z, before winds become north in all areas in the 5 to 15KT range and remain through the end of the period. Rounds of showers or light rain are anticipated at times for most locations through 06Z, before diminishing from northwest to southeast as the disturbance gradually departs to the east. Low clouds and MVFR or lower should linger a bit longer through at least 12Z. Some gradual improvements in category are anticipated from north to south during the last 6 hours of the period as drier air moves into eastern KY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...JP  665 FXUS61 KRLX 162031 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 431 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Expanded Freeze Watch into the balance of our counties. As of 138 PM... A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front brings showers, storms, and gusty winds today, followed by colder temperatures and continued breezes tonight. 2) Widespread frost/freeze conditions are expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning. 3) Quiet weather and a warming trend are expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A low-pressure system traveling northeast along the Canada/New England border will continue to drag a cold front across the middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians today. Mainly rain and gusty winds have been accompanying the frontal passage, though some thunderstorms could also develop this afternoon. While the severe potential for today is low, a stronger gust or two could be possible with storms this afternoon. Additionally, given wet ground from previous rain, even sub-severe wind gusts may down trees. Cold air advection will bring a noticeable drop in temperatures behind the front, and is anticipated to sustain breezy conditions into Saturday. Precipitation starts tapering off from west to east once the axis of an upper trough passes overhead tonight. In the higher elevations of the northeast mountains, rain may transition to a wintry mix before precipitation comes to an end Saturday morning. Snow is not expected to accumulate. KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry air advecting into the region during the day on Saturday should yield widespread dew point values below 32F Saturday evening into Sunday morning. While some modest flow with cold advection may continue on the south side of the high heading into early Sunday morning, think at least valleys in the Metro Valley and southern coalfields will decouple sufficiently to radiate out to the freezing mark for a few hours heading into daybreak. Have expanded the Freeze Watch to cover the balance of our counties for Sunday morning. If coverage of freezing temperatures is insufficient to close the growing season, additional frost/freeze highlights are possible for Monday morning. As of 138 PM... High pressure and drier air build in from the west on Saturday, bringing an end to any light precipitation lingering over the northeast mountains. Breezy conditions are expected to gradually relax throughout the day, then calm and clear conditions set in for Saturday night. Temperatures remain below normal through the day, then overnight lows dive down into the mid 20s to 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of the mountains, northern West Virginia, southwest Virginia, and southeast Ohio, where there is highest confidence in below freezing temperatures developing late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Frost Advisories are likely to be needed for the remainder of the area. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure is expected to sustain drier weather from Sunday through at least the middle of next week while a low spirals off of the Virginia/Carolina coast. Although temperatures will trend warmer during this time, one more frosty morning could be possible on Monday. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A mix of VFR and MVFR can be expected as a cold front brings showers across the area this afternoon and evening, then more widespread MVFR or worse conditions are expected to develop in low ceilings and continued precipitation overnight. Ceilings should then slowly improve from west to east on Saturday. West to northwest winds will turn northerly overnight, with gusts of 20 to 25 kts expected to continue across much of the area, and 25 to 35 kt gusts possible over the higher ridges into Saturday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may vary from the TAFs, timing of improvement tomorrow may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M H H M H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... Calm winds and clear skies will favor late-night and early- morning dense river valley fog producing LIFR visibility restrictions Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/20 AVIATION...20