133 FXUS63 KMPX 170002 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 702 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight. - Elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. - Temperatures warm well above normal next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as Canadian high pressure builds into the region. Clear skies & light winds tonight will allow temperatures to quickly fall into the 30s, with widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected overnight. A Freeze Warning is in effect overnight through 9 AM Saturday across the entire area, with the exception of the inner core of the Twin Cities metro. Southwesterly winds could pick up earlier in the night across western Minnesota & keep temperatures a few degrees above freezing, but HRRR & AIFS forecasts still suggests freezing temperatures are likely here albeit closer to midnight instead of Saturday morning. Tonight's freeze will effectively end the growing season across much of the region, with our next shot a widespread freeze likely not coming until November, so take care to protect remaining sensitive outdoor vegetation should be protected. The cold spell will be brief as the high pressure departs to the east and gusty southwest winds develop through Saturday morning. Wind gusts increase to 25-30 mph by the afternoon along with temperatures warm into the low 60s across western Minnesota & upper 50s elsewhere. This combination of gusty winds, warmer temperatures, & afternoon humidity values approaching 30% will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. The greatest concern will be across western Minnesota, where the warmest & windiest conditions are expected along with drier fuels that missed Thursdays soaking rain. Temperatures continue warming into next week as upper-level ridging strengthens across the central CONUS. Highs in the low to mid 70s are likely by the end of the week, around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October. Dry weather looks to dominate the period with any appreciable rain not unlikely until next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 701 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR with clear skies through the period. Light and variable winds will increase early morning out of the southwest between 5-10kts. Between 12-15z, stronger wind gusts will mix down towards the surface once again increasing sustained wind speeds between 15-20kts with gusts between 20-30kts for the rest of the period. There is an increasing potential for 40-45 kt LLWS tomorrow evening after 00z. KMSP...No additional concerns other than the additional of LLWS after 00z between 40-45 kts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago- Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. WI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk- St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Dunleavy  090 FXUS66 KSGX 170001 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 501 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Santa Ana winds expected through Saturday, with the strongest and most widespread winds today. Additionally, moderate to major HeatRisk is expected for coastal areas. Cooler conditions will spread inland Sunday, with greater cooling, increase in westerly winds, and chance of showers for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... Gusty winds are being observed across Southern California, with the strongest winds being observed on mountain foothills and below passes and canyons. Top 3 wind gusts over the past 48 hours were Buckman Springs with a gust of 82 mph, a 80 mph gust in Hellhole Canyon, and a 78 mph gust in Sill Hill. Over the past 12 hours the top 3 wind gusts are Hellhole Canyon, Sill Hill, and Banning with a gust of 73 mph. A more comprehensive peak wind gust report is headlined on our weather.gov/sandiego homepage. Winds have peaked across the area and are expected to begin to weaken through this evening into Saturday. That being said, winds will remain elevated into Saturday especially for places prone to east winds. Peak wind gusts for Saturday will be 35 to 55 mph, with gusts to 60 mph confined to wind prone locations. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will continue through Saturday, though relative humidity values will increase on Saturday. Some influx of moisture from the south will keep relative humidity values above 15% through the remainder of the event. In fact, there is a slight chance of light showers for southern San Diego County Saturday morning, though there is an even lower chance (5-10%) for any wetting rainfall. High temperatures will peak today, gradually decreasing through the weekend into early next week. By Tuesday, most locations are expected to be running a few degrees below average near the coast to up to 10 degrees below average for inland locations. With those cooling conditions we're monitoring for the potential for elevated westerly winds and precipitation. The most likely time for precipitation looks to be Wednesday and Thursday, but some locations further north have the potential to see precipitation as early as Tuesday afternoon or evening. Precipitation will likely remain light to moderate due to lack of any notable moisture source, though model guidance has trended wetter since yesterday. There is still some disagreement on precipitation amounts. We'll have more details in the coming days. && .AVIATION... 170000Z...Winds will gradually weaken after 00Z, but continue with a slightly more easterly direction. More weakening expected Saturday after 11Z. Otherwise...SCT high clouds and VFR conditions expected through this evening, with increasing clouds above 10 kft especially near Mexico. && .MARINE... Isolated northeast gusts could exceed 20 knots today into early Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... A south swell increasing Sunday and Monday will bring elevated surf of 3 to 5 feet with sets to 7 feet for Monday and Tuesday. While surf and rip currents will be elevated, high tides will not be particularly high, and the threat of coastal flooding is minimal. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will continue through Saturday, though relative humidity values will increase on Saturday. Some influx of moisture from the south will keep relative humidity values above 15% through the remainder of the event. In fact, there is a slight chance of light showers for southern San Diego County Saturday morning, though there is an even lower chance (5-10%) for any wetting rainfall. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1231 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026/ SYNOPSIS... A little warmer today under mostly sunny skies then cooler through Monday. Mid and high level moisture from the tropics brings more clouds along with a slight chance of light showers for our southeastern regions for Sunday and Monday. Weak high pressure will bring dry and warmer weather for Tuesday into next weekend. DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... This afternoon...Temperatures are near or a few degrees higher than at this time yesterday. Today will likely be warmer than yesterday, with high temperatures anywhere from a few degrees above normal in the deserts to as much as 10-15 degrees above normal in the inland valleys of San Diego County. There were patchy marine layer low clouds this morning which have cleared out. Southwest flow aloft ahead of a low pressure system to the northwest has brought a few high clouds today. Through Monday...The low to the northwest will move southeastward into SoCal by Monday while hurricane Odalys (currently about 950 miles southwest of San Diego) slowly moves north and weakens, becoming a remnant low about 500 miles southwest of San Diego by Monday. The flow aloft will draw mid and high level moisture from Odalys into SoCal, resulting in slight chances for mostly light precipitation Sunday and Monday. The best chances for rainfall accumulations will be in the mountains during the afternoons. This scenario will bring lower temperatures, and Monday is expected to be the coolest day with temperatures near normal in the coastal areas to as much as 10-15 degrees below normal in the mountains. The increasing mid and high clouds could disrupt the marine layer and hinder the formation of low clouds tonight through Monday night. For Tuesday through the end of next week...The low pressure system begins to move eastward into AZ on Tuesday and high pressure aloft moves into SoCal. This will bring dry and warmer weather with the potential for weak offshore flow on Tuesday and Wednesday. The warming begins on Tuesday and peaks next Saturday with daytime high temperatures up to 7 degrees above normal in the deserts and as much as 10-15 degrees above normal in the low elevations west of the mountains. The lack of mid and high clouds with high pressure aloft could allow the low clouds of a shallow marine layer to return to the coastal areas. AVIATION... 261800Z...Coast/Valleys...Clouds struggled to push ashore overnight, with only a few intermittent patches of near IFR CIGs observed. All clouds have cleared out or linger well offshore this morning, with VFR conditions expected to prevail into this evening with SCT-BKN clouds filtering in AOA 20k ft. Clouds are expected to be very patchy once again tonight as the marine layer will be inhibited by the cirrus cloud cover. There is a window for intermittent CIGs across San Diego County around 7-11z Sunday before weak offshore winds likely keep clouds over the waters, with a window for intermittent CIGs across Orange County around 10-14z Sunday. Should any CIGs develop, bases will generally 800-1200 ft MSL, with VIS 1- 5SM in BR/FG for elevated coastal terrain. Mountains/Deserts...VFR prevails with increasing SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20 kft through the period. MARINE... Increasing confidence in northwest wind gusts of 20-25 knots in the outer waters Monday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday. BEACHES... Southwesterly swell (3-4 ft at 13 seconds from ~200 degrees) from Hurricane Odalys persists through this weekend, bringing surf of 3-5 feet with sets up to 6 feet, highest along south and southwest facing beaches. The swell from Hurricane Polo (3 ft at 14 seconds from ~170 degrees) increases on Monday. Given this direction, most of San Diego County beaches will be largely sheltered from this swell, but Orange County beaches (especially in north OC) should be impacted. Meanwhile, a northwesterly swell (3-4 ft at 7 seconds from ~290 degrees) arrives late Sunday and Monday. Between these two swells, surf of 3-5 feet with sets to 6 feet looks probable along south/southwest facing beaches with surf 3-5 feet along west-facing beaches through Tuesday. With this elevated surf, there is a high risk for rip currents through Tuesday. Tides are already observed over 6.2 feet and are expected to gradually increase into early next week, peaking around 6.9-7.0ft for the late-morning high tides on Monday-Wednesday. A Beach Hazard Statement remains is in effect through Sunday night for due to the risk of minor tidal overflow and minor coastal erosion. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued, in effect from early Monday morning through Wednesday afternoon to account for the highest tides combining with the expected elevated surf. Primary impacts during the morning high tides Monday-Wednesday will be minor coastal flooding in low lying areas in addition to coastal erosion. Please note - listed tide predictions have been adjusted to reflect actual measured tide observations. SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Valleys. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for San Bernardino County Mountains. High Wind Warning until midnight PDT Saturday night for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. High Wind Warning until noon PDT Saturday for Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Wind Advisory until noon PDT Saturday for Orange County Inland Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...CO AVIATION/MARINE...Castro  314 FXUS62 KILM 170005 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 805 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for 00Z TAFs. Beach Hazards Statement issued for New Hanover and Georgetown Counties for a strong north to south longshore current Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front with a developing Nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to dangerous marine conditions. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front with a developing nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to dangerous marine and surf conditions. A strong cold front will move through tonight into Saturday morning bringing light rain to the area. Light rain/drizzle may remain possible for SE NC into early next week before the nor'easter moves further off to the north. In the meantime, strong northerly winds will settle over the area through the weekend. Wind speeds and gusts have increased slightly from the previous forecast, with mainly marine impacts expected. Should the wind forecast continue to increase, there is a low possibility for a Wind Advisory along the immediate coast Saturday through Sunday as sustained winds may exceed 30 mph and/or gusts possibly exceed 46 mph. The enhanced winds should also lead to dangerous surf conditions into early next week with at least 6 ft breaking wave heights along east-facing beaches. Wind speeds should decrease slightly into early next week but much depends on the strength/track of the storm. For marine impacts, see the marine discussion below. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR through about 10Z before MVFR and then possibly IFR cigs develop behind a passing strong cold front. The best chance of IFR seems to be about 10-14Z inland at KFLO/KLBT and about 14-20Z near the coast at KILM/KCRE/KMYR. Mainly light rain is expected inland at KLBT/KFLO toward 12Z and then closer to the coast at KILM/KCRE/KMYR by ~15Z with no significant/persistent VSBY restrictions expected, especially at all terminals outside of KLBT. N winds will increase quickly after the frontal passage late tonight/early Saturday, gusting to ~30 kt at times. Extended Outlook... Dry air should lead to improving conditions by Saturday night. A nor'easter to our east will maintain breezy northerly winds, but should be far enough away to prevent sub- VFR conditions from materializing. && .MARINE... A strong cold front with a developing nor'easter will move over the waters Saturday morning, bringing strong northerly winds to the area. Gale force winds will be well established across the waters by Saturday afternoon. The nor'easter will linger to our east through the weekend, with a stronger surge of winds impacting our SE NC offshore waters into Sunday, where storm force gusts are possible. As the nor'easter moves further away early next week, marine conditions should improve, but Small Craft Advisory conditions may linger into mid week depending on the pressure gradient. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250- 252-254-256-284. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ280. Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for AMZ280. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...RJB/LEW MARINE...LEW  783 FXUS62 KTBW 170011 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 811 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters over the weekend and continuing into next week. - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday. - A cooler drier airmass with below average temperatures will arrive by Sunday and continue through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The warm dry pattern gets disrupted today as moisture works its way back over the area, clearly evident by this morning's sounding showing the PWAT value over 2 inches. With increased moisture, daytime heating, and a bit of a sea breeze developing, scattered to numerous showers are expected. Highest coverage will likely be over the interior. WPC has placed the majority of the area in a marginal (1 of 5) risk for excessive rainfall, likely due to the potential for isolated heavy downpours in slow moving storms. Meanwhile a cold front will approach the area overnight before moving through Florida tomorrow . Showers and storms are expected to accompany the front as it moves over the area. Saturday evening into Sunday, once the cold front has moved south of the forecast area, high pressure will build back in. This will create a tight pressure gradient between the two, which will lead to elevated winds over the area. This will lead to hazardous marine conditions through the weekend and into next week. However, the strong north to northeasterly breeze will help usher in some cooler and drier air. High temperatures are expected to be in mid/upper 70s to low/mid 80s through the forecast period. Low temperatures will be in the low 50s to low 60s. Should be a nice stretch of fall like conditions for the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) A cold front slowly moving down the state Saturday morning into the afternoon is expected to produce broken areas of SHRA with MVFR to brief IFR cigs and vsby restrictions from around 10Z thru 15-18Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Marine conditions expected to deteriorate tomorrow as a cold front approaches the waters bringing a line of showers and storms. Behind the front, the pressure gradient tightens up between the high pressure that moves towards the area and the retreating cold front. This will quickly elevate winds starting tomorrow and lasting into next week. Sustained winds between 25-30kts, with higher gusts expected. Current forecast trends have slightly lowered winds over the waters, keeping only a few isolated gusts near gale force. However, we will continue to monitor trends and observations. Overall, marine conditions are expected to be hazardous into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Increase in moisture today will lead to some afternoon showers and storms. A cold front moves through tomorrow. A cooler drier air mass will move over the area behind it. However, RH values are expected to remain above critical levels. Breezy conditions are expected through the weekend and into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 80 62 77 / 40 60 0 0 FMY 76 83 68 81 / 40 70 40 10 GIF 74 81 63 79 / 40 50 10 0 SRQ 76 82 64 79 / 40 70 10 0 BKV 72 79 59 76 / 40 50 0 0 SPG 76 80 64 77 / 50 70 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt  020 FXUS64 KBMX 170015 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 715 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 703 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026 - Fall Weather: A cold front will continue moving through the southeast counties of Central Alabama this evening, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area behind it for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026 A strong cold front is expected to move through the area today. Winds are already shifting to the NW in NW portions of AL here around noon. We're not expecting much in the way of rainfall with this, though a few sprinkles can't be ruled out. The main impact is going to be gusty winds this afternoon and through much of the day tomorrow as the front moves through. This will be some of the coldest temperatures so far this year with lows Saturday dropping into the upper 40s to near 50, then dropping to the low to mid 40s on Sunday and Monday mornings. Daytime highs should rebound quite a bit, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s for overall mild Fall conditions this weekend. This trough that's moving through develops into a cut-off low along the Atlantic Coast Sunday into Monday as ridging builds in to our west. This will generally lead to continued dry weather with northerly to northwesterly flow. We'll gradually see a warming trend through the remainder of the week with mostly clear skies and ample sunshine, though overnight lows will remain in the mid to upper 40 to near 50 through Friday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026 A few MVFR cigs may occur this evening as well as a few light showers as the last bit of moisture moves through with and right behind the cold front. NW-N wind 10-18kts with higher gusts are at all sites except for AUO. The front is near them and they are just shifting with lighter winds, but they should pick up shortly. Gusty NRLY winds are expected for during the day on Saturday. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will move through the area this afternoon and evening. A much drier air mass builds into the region this weekend and will persist through the upcoming week. Winds will be strong tonight and through much of tomorrow afternoon with 20ft winds in the 10-15 mph range and gusts up to 25 mph. RHs drop to the low 30% range in western portions of Central AL, with the eastern half of the area dropping just below 40%. This keeps us out of critical Red Flag Warning criteria, but conditions are notably dry and windy on Saturday, so outdoor burning is discouraged. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 47 66 41 68 / 20 0 0 0 Anniston 47 65 42 69 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 48 65 44 68 / 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 49 68 45 71 / 20 0 0 0 Calera 48 65 44 68 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 50 67 47 66 / 20 0 0 0 Montgomery 50 69 47 69 / 20 0 0 0 Troy 48 68 46 67 / 20 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...25/Owen AVIATION...08  158 FXUS61 KAKQ 170019 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 819 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated TAF/Aviation discussion for 00z and updated Climate section. Wind Advisories have been issued for VA Beach/Eastern Currituck County starting at noon on Saturday. Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for most of Hampton Roads and areas up the James River as well from Sunday through Monday night, as confidence in a significant coastal flood event is increasing. Overall, there is still some uncertainty in the forecast beyond Saturday though forecast winds/water levels have increased from Sunday-Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. Much cooler with steady light to moderate rain on Saturday. 2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. 3) There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. 4) Long Duration coastal flood event expected starting as early as Sunday afternoon, but potentially continuing into mid week. Coastal flood watches issued for the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Lower James River with expansion of coastal flood watches likely to other areas tonight or Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. Much cooler with steady light to moderate rain on Saturday. Warm and humid weather prevails this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front over the central Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic. Strong low pressure is tracking east over the St Lawrence Valley, with a sharpening upper trough over the mid-MS River Valley/Midwest. A broken line of gusty showers and a few tstms have developed just ahead of the front from WV to central PA. Locally, temperatures are in the lower-mid 80s with mid 60s dew pts. Instability is meager with only a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. The front continues to move SE toward the FA this evening before crossing the area tonight. Am still expecting a line of shallow convection to cross the area with the front, which is what most of the CAMs predict. The most likely timing for tstms is between 7 PM-1 AM. While widespread 30-40 mph gusts are likely with the line, the nighttime timing and limited instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg or less) should keep the overall severe threat low for a majority of the area. Will need to keep an eye on far northeastern portions of the area (MD Eastern Shore) where there may be slightly better kinematics (though less in the way of thermodynamics as sfc heating has been less here). Temps remain in the 70s with a quick drop to around 60F shortly after the FROPA. The front moves well to our southeast Saturday morning while the upper trough becomes a closed low as it tracks into western VA. A large area of light to moderate rain develops ahead of that trough and tracks across the area during the day. Rain likely ends by midday inland, but may linger through the late aftn/early evening near the coast. Additionally, a secondary, stronger surge of CAA will cross the area from mid to late Saturday morning. Therefore, Daytime highs will be achieved during the early morning hours, with temperatures struggling to get out of the mid 50s by the afternoon (and could even fall to around 50 where it is raining). So, 24 hour temperature changes could be in the neighborhood of 30-35+ degrees from this afternoon-Saturday afternoon! Deep mixing in the wake of the front will promote breezy N winds, with gusts of 25 to 35+ mphinland and 40 to 50 mph along the immediate coast. A Wind Advisory has been issued for VA Beach/Eastern Currituck starting at noon Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. Strong NW flow aloft in the wake of the cold front will usher in the coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday. Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but there will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally, especially closer to the coast. With the surface high forecast to be 1035mb+, kept the theme from the previous forecast and undercut NBM lows by a few degrees in the northern Piedmont where decoupling is more probable closer to sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dewpoints, at least patchy frost will be possible there. Closer to the coast, lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Mostly sunny Sunday (potentially more clouds in the SE) with highs about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Additional frost potential is possible Sunday night into Monday morning across the northern Piedmont with temperatures again dropping back into the 30s. KEY MESSAGE 3...There is still some uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. There is still a decent amount of uncertainty with respect to the track and strength of coastal low pressure late this weekend into early next week. Sunday will most likely be dry and cool as the low deepens 100-200 miles east of the NC coast while strong high pressure wedges down from the north. Guidance continues to struggle with how close this coastal system remains to the shoreline, though most of the ensemble solutions show the low meandering around 100- 200 miles off the southern VA or NC coast. However, there are still hints (especially from the deterministic GFS and Canadian) that it could retrograde back towards the local area on Monday before moving a bit back out to sea by mid to late week. Precipitation chances have increased on Monday (especially near the coast) and have kept at least some PoPs in the forecast through much of next week. The 50th percentile GFS/Canadian Ensemble QPF is 0.25-1.00" across much of the area on Monday, though the EPS has noticeably less rain. Again, it is important to emphasize that that there is uncertainty and the forecast will change. Breezy N to NE winds will likely persist through much of next week, with the highest gusts along the immediate coast. The Wind Advisory for VA Beach/Eastern Currituck is in effect until 8 PM Sunday and will likely need to be extended. As winds become more NE Sunday/Monday, the Advisory may need to be expanded as well. Near to slightly below average temperatures are currently in the forecast for next week. KEY MESSAGE 4...Long Duration coastal flood event expected starting as early as Sunday afternoon, but potentially continuing into mid week. Coastal flood watches issued for the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Lower James River with expansion of coastal flood watches likely to other areas tonight or Saturday. North winds to gale force will allow water levels to build first over the lower Bay and Lower James River as early as Sunday afternoon. This will allow for tide anomalies to be 2 to 3 feet above normal astronomical tide. Fortunately, we are currently on the low end of the tide cycle. Even so, moderate flood stage is forecast at Lynnhaven, Jamestown and Smithfield with the Sunday high tide. As the winds turn slightly more northeast and increase Sunday night into Monday, expect the anomalies to build and impact the ocean front, as well as other areas in the lower and middle Chesapeake Bay. By Monday, many sites south of Windmill Point and along the ocean front are forecast to be into moderate flooding, including Sewells Pt. Lynnhaven, Jamestown and Smithfield are forecast to major tidal flooding on Monday. Considerable beach erosion is also expected with seas building to 10 to 15 feet. With little change in wind direction and only a slight decrease of wind speed on Tuesday or Wednesday, expect moderate to major tidal flooding to continue into mid week. Note that there is still considerable uncertainty in the tide forecast especially early next week as the exact placement of the low will be very important in what the actual tide values will be. PETSS still has a significant range of solutions for many sites so users need to pay very close attention to the forecasts through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Friday... VFR conditions across area terminals to start the 00Z TAFs. S-SW winds are generally 5-10 kt and scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded tstms are pushing into far NW portions of the FA. Have slowed down the arrival of the wind shift and better rain chances by 1-2 hrs: winds shift N-NW post-frontal mainly between 02-07z (10p-3a EDT) with MVFR ceilings and more widespread (stratiform) rain moving into the region. Rain tapers off from NW to SE later Saturday morning at SBY, by midday/early aftn Saturday at RIC, but will likely linger through late aftn at PHF and possibly even til early evening at ORF/ECG. Winds briefly diminish post-frontal, but quickly ramp back up with onset of cold air advection, especially between 12-15Z Saturday. Expect winds to frequently gust to 30-35 kt at ORF/ECG, and 25-30 kt elsewhere. Have MVFR to IFR CIGs developing across all terminals from ~08Z through 16-20Z (briefly at SBY and of the longest duration at ORF/ECG). Outlook: Conditions become VFR inland late Saturday aftn with gradually diminishing winds, and should remain VFR through Sunday. Closer to the coast, periodic sub- VFR CIGs may re- develop Sunday and continue through Monday- Tuesday, along with continued breezy conditions (winds gusting to at least 25-30 kt) as a nor'easter develops offshore. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A strong cold front to pass through the waters tonight. A brief period of gale force winds possible immediately behind the front this evening and overnight. - Widespread northerly gale force conditions start Saturday and continue through Monday and likely beyond as coastal low pressure develops off the coast. - There is the potential for storm force wind gusts on Monday as the low pressure moves north and deepens. Winds are currently steady at SW 10 to 15 kt across the waters this afternoon with gusts to 20 kt. However, they are expected to increase even more this evening ahead of the cold front. Have opted to start the SCA in the bay/rivers with forecast issuance this afternoon due to the gusts to 20 kt. Winds will quickly shift to the NW behind the front which should enter the northern waters around 11pm this, then exit the southern waters by 4am Sat morning. The high res guidance suggest that a brief surge to near gale force winds may occur immediately behind the front, which is not unexpected with these type of strong Autumn cold fronts. However, this wind will be short lived and will likely relax before the stronger and more widespread gales move in Saturday morning. If this does occur, we will likely handle with Special Marine Warnings since it will be less than 3 hours in duration. The main change in the model guidance is to ultimately come into better agreement with the coastal low developing off the NC coast later Saturday into Sunday. Before this happens, there will be a period of moderate Gales starting Saturday morning and continuinginto Sunday. The winds are expected to diminish some on Sunday, especially across the far northern waters depending on how far south the low develops. However, will continue to keep gales in place in all zones and in fact extend the gales into Monday night. Regarding early next week, the low is then expected to meander offshore on into Sunday before moving northward (and possibly westward) into Monday. There are still important differences which will be critical to the forecast for late this weekend and especially early next week. The GFS brings the low further north earlier, which would bring potentially a round of storm force gust conditions to at least the central and southern coastal waters Sunday night into Monday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is slower and further south, which would likely delay any storm force gusts during the day on Monday and into Monday Night and keep them even further offshore. Will trend toward the ECMWF and NBM which show the strongest winds Monday into Monday night but keep gusts just below storm force for now. Still, storm watches may need to be issued this weekend if this trend continues. Both models show the low will then meander offshore for several days into mid week with the ECMWF being the closest to the coast and the model that would bring the worst impacts to the local area. GFS keeps the low further offshore but still gale force conditions through mid week and continued high surf/coastal flooding. Needless to say this is now looking like a long duration event with gales likely continuing into mid week if not beyond. && .CLIMATE... - Record High Temperatures set today Fri 10/16: - RIC: no record set. - ORF: 87 *ties (2008). - SBY: no record set. - ECG: 86 *ties (2008) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098. Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning for VAZ089-090-524-528. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning for VAZ097-098-529>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630- 631. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632- 634-652-654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-639. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ635-636. Gale Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ637. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ639. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/ERI/MRD AVIATION...LKB/MAM MARINE...MRD CLIMATE...LKB  155 FXUS61 KBOX 170019 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 819 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Gale Watches have been replaced with Small Craft Advisories for the applicable waters, excluding the outermost zones where Small Craft Advisories are not issued. Post-frontal NNW winds are expected to gust 25-35 kt Saturday, with occasional gusts approaching gale force possible, especially across the southern and southeastern outer waters Saturday night into early Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning showers exit, followed by a brief lull this afternoon before a cold front brings additional showers and thunderstorms this evening. A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. - A few showers may linger along the southern coast early Saturday. Otherwise, drier and noticeably colder conditions are expected Saturday. - Dry with a modest warmup through mid next week, but monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid-Atlantic waters which could bring periods of light rain, enhanced northeast winds and building waves/possible erosion to southeast New England. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Morning showers exit, followed by a brief lull this afternoon before a cold front brings additional showers and thunderstorms this evening. A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. As anticipated, gloomy conditions to wrap up the workweek. Earlier this morning, a warm front lifted through southern New England, bringing the first round of showers. The region is now positioned within the warm sector. Dew points are increasing into the lower 60s along the coast, while interior locations remain in the 50s. However, by midafternoon, anticipate temperatures and dew points continuing to climb into the 60s. Increasing dew points could lead to pockets of instability. High-resolution guidance suggests limited surface-based CAPE; however, as we've previously mentioned, the jet dynamics associated with the approaching cold front are impressive. A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is developing across western New York and extending southwest into Ohio. This activity is associated with our cold front, which is marching eastward, aided by a fairly robust mid-level trough. Ahead of the trough, SSW flow allows for WAA, supporting mild afternoon temperatures despite the clouds and rain. Highs should reach the middle 60s across northern areas, while upper 60s to near 70 degrees are possible farther south. Today is not anticipated to be a high-end severe weather day by any stretch of the imagination; however, it is a day we cannot completely ignore. Instability remains limited, generally 100-300 J/kg of MUCAPE, though strong bulk shear may compensate for the limited instability and support a few stronger storms. Over the last 24 hours, the greatest shear has shifted a bit farther south, favoring areas around NYC and points southwest. Nevertheless, a couple of stronger storms remain possible. Feel as though these storms could produce sub-severe wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, with a much lower chance of severe gusts exceeding 60 mph. CAMs continue to indicate that the greatest potential for thunderstorms across southern New England will be between 5 PM and 11 PM as the cold front progresses from west to east. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches are expected. KEY MESSAGE 2...A few showers may linger along the southern coast early Saturday. Otherwise, drier and noticeably colder conditions are expected Saturday. Heading into the overnight hours, the area of low pressure associated with the cold front tracks northeast through the Saint Lawrence Valley as broad high pressure expands across the Great Plains. The surface low deepens tobelow 990 mb, with some guidance suggesting it could reach 985 mb by Saturday afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient supports gusty NNW winds at the surface, while northerly flow strengthens aloft. Meanwhile, 850 mb temperatures fall to between -6C and -4C, a rather significant drop considering values were between +15C and +17C Friday afternoon. While the majority of precipitation should exit with the cold front, some guidance suggests the potential for an anafrontal wave to develop along the departing boundary early Saturday. This could allow showers to linger across the southern coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands into Saturday morning. Highs Saturday afternoon are not anticipated to be much warmer than the lower 50s across the coastal plain and middle to upper 40s farther inland. However, with gusty winds, apparent temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees colder than the actual air temperatures. Very cold conditions are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning as strong high pressure builds into the region. With the combination of very cold temperatures aloft, diminishing winds, and favorable radiational cooling, temperatures are expected to fall below freezing across much of southern New England, leading to widespread frost/freeze conditions. However, since we are outside the climatological growing season, our frost/freeze program ended on October 11, and no Frost or Freeze headlines will be issued. Nevertheless, if you purchased any sensitive tropical plants or palms from the garden center this summer, now would be a good time to bring them indoors! KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry with a modest warmup through mid next week, but monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid-Atlantic waters which could bring periods of light rain, enhanced northeast winds and building waves/possible erosion to southeast New England. Expansive area of high pressure will maintain itself over most or much of Southern New England through midweek and potentially longer as it becomes reinforced by another strong high pressure coming out of the northern Canadian Prairie region by midweek. This will at least drive dry weather and a gradual warming trend away from the southeast coast with pretty strong diurnal temperature ranges (mild days, cool nights). These conditions could linger into much of the upcoming workweek, away from the southeast coast. However we continue to monitor coastal storminess depicted across the NWP and ensemble suite near the mid-Atlantic waters Sunday. There seem to be an increasing number of model guidance which brings a portion of this feature's moisture northward or northeastward into a weakness in the above surface ridge at some point Monday into Wednesday, mainly impacting the coastal plain and southeast New England. Exactly when and/or for how long it rains is still quite a bit unclear as the rain will be moving into a very dry ridge and should create a sharp NW to SE gradient in rain, but it doesn't look to be a soaking rain in looking at ensemble QPF probabilities. The bigger potential issue is mainly for the southern waters/coastlines with respect to increasingly gusty ENE winds and building rough seas which could lead to beach erosion for east- or northeast-facing beaches. With a persistent easterly fetch over several days, it's a conduit for building waves and latest significant wave heights are in the 12-15 ft range south and east of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. ECMWF probabilities of gale force gusts have increased into the moderate to high (50-70%) range for Monday into Tuesday, while the GFS is more tempered at around 30-50%, with lower probabilities for the northeast waters. It may also turn breezy over the land as well with gusts up to 30 mph at times. We'll re-evaluate the risk for coastal flooding given severaltidal cycles, but astro tides are decreasing through midweek, which should mitigate significant issues. So as it looks right now, there appears to be a growing risk for at least impacts to mariners, including potential gale force gusts that could warrant headlines in the coming days as well as rough seas. Some risk for rains would exist as well for southeast New England, but at the moment rainfall doesn't look particularly significant or substantial at this point. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: Tonight: Moderate confidence. Mix of flight categories with IFR/LIFR for PVD, Cape and Islands and VFR/MVFR ceilings from ORH westward. Line of gusty showers moving through eastern MA and RI to clear offshore by 02z, with a windshift to W around 10-12 kt upon frontal passage and either very light rain or even dry. After 04-06z, another round of light rain showers then develops from SW to NE as NW winds increase and become gusty. These shouldn't reduce visby with VFR/MVFR ceilings. Rain showers should begin to taper off between 08-12z from the Berkshires southeast to a rough BED/IJD line, but continue into Sat south and east from there. NW winds increase to around 13-15 kt with gusts 23-27 kt by daybreak. Saturday: High confidence in TAF/trends, but moderate on when SHRA clears southeast New England. Ceilings should improve to VFR before daybreak, but rain showers could linger until early afternoon for PVD, and potentially into midafternoon for the Cape and Islands. North and west from there, VFR prevails. Gusty NW winds around 13-17 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. Saturday Night: High confidence. VFR. Easing NW winds to around 5-10 kt by midnight, continuing to ease to light NW overnight. Sunday: High confidence. VFR. Light north winds, though becoming NE around 8-12 kt for the Cape and Islands. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ232>235-237- 250. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254>256. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ281>283. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/Dooley AVIATION...Frank/Loconto MARINE...Loconto/Dooley  147 FXUS63 KMKX 170018 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 718 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to around 30 inland later tonight into early Saturday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect for most areas, with a Frost Advisory in far southeast Wisconsin near Lake Michigan. - Southwest gales may occur Saturday night into Sunday night over far northern portions of Lake Michigan. Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels for the nearshore waters Sunday into Sunday night. && .UPDATE... Issued 712 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Shower activity and clouds continue to dissipate as low level lapse rates continue to decrease after sunset. Winds are expected to decrease as well into tonight as a high pressure ridge moves over the Upper MS Valley and southern WI. The clear skies, low dewpoints, and calm winds tonight will allow for overnight lows to plummet into the 27 to 32 degree range for all areas inland from Lake Michigan. A Freeze Warning is in effect from 1AM to 9AM Saturday for all counties in southern WI, save for Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties. These counties will see slightly warmer overnight lows ranging from 32 to 35, owing to the influence of the warmer waters of Lake Michigan. Still, widespread frost is expected in these counties, and a Frost Advisory is in effect. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tonight through Sunday night: Scattered to numerous showers will linger this afternoon, as the backside of the southeastward-moving 500 mb shortwave trough shifts through the region. Forecast soundings are saturated in the low levels, with steep low level lapse rates and low freezing levels around 3000 to 4000 feet AGL. Thus, some graupel may occur at times with these showers. This activity should gradually dissipate by late afternoon and early evening, as drier air moves into the area via cold air advection on the gusty north winds. Some northerly gusts to 40 MPH may also occur mainly near the lake this afternoon, with the good low level mixing with the steep lapse rates. Skies should gradually clear out tonight, as the 500 mb trough shifts southeast and an axis of surface high pressure shifts into the region. This should also bring weakening winds, becoming light and variable overnight into early Saturday morning. This should allow for low temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees over most of the area, with lower 30s for far southeast Wisconsin near Lake Michigan. Thus, kept the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory going as is for later tonight into early Saturday morning. It may get into the middle 20s toward northwest parts of the area. Cover or bring indoors any sensitive plants. The high will gradually shift southeast of the region Saturday into Sunday night, with southwest winds developing. Northwest flow at 500 mb will become more zonal during this period as well. This should allow for dry conditions this weekend, with temperatures moderating from the middle 50s Saturday to the lower to middle 60s Sunday. Lows in the middle to upper 30s are forecast for Saturday night, but the southwest winds should remain high enough to limit most frost potential. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Monday through Friday: 500 mb cluster analysis generally shows an anomalous 500 mb ridge developing somewhere over the Upper Midwest or Western Great Lakes regions by the middle to later portions of next week. This should allow for the surface high to gradually shift east northeast of the region during this period, keeping generally southerly winds over the area. This should result in steady warming of temperatures during the week, with ensemble members supporting highs well into the 60s to around 70 degrees by Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps into the lower 70s inland Thursday into Friday. Ensemble members also show a dry period for most of the week. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 715 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Widespread VFR conditions are expected overnight and winds will grow lighter as a sfc high pressure ridge moves over the Upper MS Valley and southern WI. Light and variable winds should take over between 06z and 12z Saturday. VFR conditions continue into tomorrow, with southwesterly winds becoming breezy late morning and through the afternoon. Gusts to 20 knots will be possible on the edge of the retreating high pressure, mainly along and north of a line from KMSN to KMKE. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Low pressure around 29.4 inches will continue to move well east of the region tonight, as strong high pressure around 30.6 inches remains over the Central Plains. North gales are expected to linger into this evening across Lake Michigan, before tapering off later tonight. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all of the open waters of Lake Michigan until 1 AM CDT Saturday morning, and until 10 PM CDT this evening for the nearshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed after the Gale Warning expires into later tonight, for lingering gusty north winds and elevated waves. Scattered to numerous showers will linger into this evening across the lake, with a few thunderstorms and a waterspout possible over the south half of Lake Michigan. As the high shifts toward the Ohio River Valley on Saturday, strong low pressure around 29.0 inches will develop in south central Canada, shifting toward and into Hudson Bay on Sunday. This may bring southwest gales to far northern portions of Lake Michigan Saturday night into Sunday night. High pressure around 30.5 inches should develop east northeast of the region next week, bringing dry conditions and light to modest winds. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068- WIZ069-WIZ070...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday. Frost Advisory...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 1 AM Saturday. Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  199 FXUS61 KBGM 170020 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 820 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Little change to previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A much colder air mass will move into the area tonight into tomorrow with winds remaining gusty. 2) High pressure returns this weekend and temperatures will gradually warm up next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front is progressing its way through NY and PA this afternoon. Across NY, cloud cover and showers have kept temperatures cooler and not allowed for much heating. Clouds have cleared in the Wyoming valley in NEPA so there is starting to be some surface based CAPE to develop. A bowing storm in central PA is on line with moving into the Wyoming Valley between 4 and 5 pm. As of now, strong wind gusts look to be the main concern as the storms move through NEPA. Shear is strong, with mesoanalysis showing about 50 knots of bulk shear ahead of the line. In NY, there is a thin line of showers along the front with some gusts of 30 to 35 mph so still will see some breezy conditions with its passage but nothing severe. Tonight into tomorrow, strong cold air advection will drop temperatures into the 30s and 40s along with 20 to 30 mph winds gusts. Wind chills will be at or below freezing for much of the day so quite the difference from the recent weather we have been having. Temperatures Saturday night will result in the first widespread freeze as lows fall into the 20s. KEY MESSAGE 2... An area of high pressure will remain present over the region throughout next week. A quasi-stationary low pressure system will develop along the East Coast and linger off the Carolinas and mid Atlantic for much of the week. The strong ridge in place will keep the low off shore with any precipitation remaining east of our region. Temperatures will gradually warm up into early next week, becoming more seasonable. Sunny skies may help push high temperatures back into the 70s in the valleys. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A mix of VFR/MVFR to locally IFR conditions will linger in the wake of a cold frontal passage tonight into tomorrow morning, with MVFR ceilings expected to be predominate much of the time. With a north-northwest wind in place later tonight into early tomorrow, there can be some isolated light lake effect rain showers that can mix with or even briefly change over to snow showers/flurries, mainly around SYR, ITH and BGM. Ceilings are expected to start breaking mid-to-late morning and continue into the afternoon with clear skies in place by the end of the TAF as high pressure moves in overhead. Gusty north- northwest winds will also continue through much of tomorrow before beginning to ease late in the day and into tomorrow evening. Outlook... Saturday night through Wednesday...High pressure leads to mainly VFR conditions with possible IFR valley fog at ELM in the early morning hours. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ044-047. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG/BTL AVIATION...DK  340 FXUS62 KGSP 170023 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 823 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front crosses the area this evening and tonight, bringing breezy conditions and a chance for widely scattered rain. 2. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday night and Sunday morning, with temperatures expected to fall to near or below freezing across the NC mountains. Frost potential may return Sunday night, but confidence is limited. 3. Quiet conditions persist most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: A cold front crosses the area this evening and tonight, bringing breezy conditions and a chance for widely scattered rain. It's mostly clear across the area this morning following a stint of isolated dense fog across the mountain valleys, foothills, and even a few spots in the Upstate. Widely scattered stratocumulus remain in place in a few spots across the NC mountains, but otherwise skies are clear and a beautiful day is once again in store. To our west, a strong cold front is easily-discernible in the theta-e and dewpoint fields extending across the central Tennessee Valley into eastern Kentucky...and this feature will drive the interesting weather over the next 24 to 36 hours. Models are in good agreement that the surface front will gain momentum as its upper-level trough sharpens this afternoon, and the system will arrive in the NC mountains by late afternoon or early this evening. The result will be an uptick in winds as the front crosses the region through the overnight hours...pushing to our east by Saturday morning. Strong CAA is depicted on the back side of the front, such that lingering wind gusts of 15-20mph are likely across the mountains through most of the overnight. Winds should also be favorable oriented for a gap wind to develop in parts of the Upstate and Foothills overnight. Winds will begin tapering off through the day on Saturday, but will remain breezy most of the day, not really quieting down until Saturday night. A secondary issue will be the potential for rainfall in and behind the frontal zone tonight. For several consecutive cycles, models have been trending toward an increasing amount of low-level moisture embedded within the postfrontal air mass, and although models have struggled with it for the last couple days, there's an increasingly convincing signal in the hi-res guidance for patchy drizzle to develop. The latest HREF and REFS ensembles feature mainly <0.1" for most of the area...with the exception of some west-facing slopes in the NC mountains, which could receive higher totals. Forecast profiles also suggest some potential for gravity wave development in the lee of the mountains, with favorable orientation of low-level wind vectors and a strong postfrontal inversion developing across the area in response to the front. As a result, CAMs have trended sharply toward more cloud cover overnight tonight, along with somewhat greater coverage of drizzle. Key message 2: A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday night and Sunday morning, with temperatures expected to fall to near or below freezing across the NC mountains. Frost potential may return Sunday night, but confidence is limited. In the wake of Friday night's cold front, a dramatically cooler cP air mass will settle into the area for the weekend, allowing temperatures to drop sharply on Saturday and Sunday. Forecast highs still only climb into the lo 60s for most of the area on Saturday and again on Sunday as lingering CAA continues to cool the area off. It currently looks like the coldest night should be Saturday night, when much of the high terrain will see overnight lows drop into the lower 30s. Many locations across the mountains will see temperatures drop to freezing, and a Freeze Watch has been issued, valid from 1AM through 9AM Sunday. The low terrain will likely not see freezing temperatures, though most of the area will cool into the mid to upper 30s. Winds here should remain just elevated enough to preclude a widespread frost risk...though patchy frost in secluded locations seems reasonable. By Sunday night, just enough air mass modification should have occurred that the majority of locations even in the mountains will remain just above freezing. However, more widespread frost looks possible than on Saturday night, as by this point the core of the surface high will be situated just to our west, and winds should be calmer than on Saturday night. No plans for any product just yet, but one may become necessary depending on how the forecast evolves. Confidence is limited by the growing number of ensemble solutions that depict a stacked low developing off the NC coast...which would reinvigorate low-level northerly flow, raising winds and reducing frost potential. Regardless, frost potential should diminish past Sunday night. Key message 3: Quiet conditions persist most of next week. Long-range ensembles are in decent agreement that most of next week will be defined by a stout blocking ridge that'll strengthen across the eastern half of the United States and remain in place through the end of the seven-day forecast. The ridge should keep things stable and unperturbed, so no active weather is expected. Temperatures will steadily climb through the middle of the week as the air mass only slow modifies, such that by mid-week most locations will see highs in the low- to mid-70s, and lows in the upper 40s or lower 50s...more or less around climo for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: A robust cold front is expected to cross the area tonight thru Saturday morning, bringing gusty winds and sct rain showers. Still expecting winds outside the mtns to toggle from SW to NW/N over the next few hrs. Winds at KAVL went NWLY a few hours ago. Some widely sct showers have been moving over the NC mtns and portions of the northern NC foothills and Piedmont over the past few hours, but coverage has been minimal. In addition, bands of stratocu in the low- end VFR range are now moving over the NC mtns and western Upstate, and guidance supports expansion of these cigs across the Upstate and into the Piedmont later tonight and into the overnight. Restrictions should mainly be confined to KAVL and areas where rain is actively falling, though there is a decent chance that KCLT will see a few hours of MVFR cigs late Saturday morning/early afternoon. Any cig restrictions should sct/lift during the early afternoon with VFR conditions expected for the rest of the period. Outlook: Winds diminish Saturday night, with dry, VFR conditions expected for most of next week. Mtn valley fog and low stratus will be possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063. SC...None. && $$ JPT/MPR  512 FXUS65 KSLC 170028 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 628 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms return to portions of southern Utah late Sunday morning through the afternoon. - More widespread precipitation is expected roughly Tuesday on into the weekend. Total water amounts remain around 0.50-1.50", with locally higher amounts to around 2.00-2.50" or so. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... Morning water vapor analysis shows ridging extending through the Great Basin while a broad cutoff low swirls near the Baja Peninsula. With dry and stable conditions, overnight lows dipped near to slightly below freezing in some locations, but temperatures are quickly rebounding. Forecast afternoon highs are expected to push to near seasonable levels in most locations, with the exception being portions of the San Rafael Swell and Castle Country where highs will run around 5-10 degrees below normal. The broad cutoff low will gradually shift east to northeastward into the Desert Southwest, before ejecting into the northern stream Sunday into Monday. For Saturday, conditions more or less look like a repeat of Friday but with temperatures nudging upwards slightly. Moisture associated with the low will start to push through portions of southern Utah Sunday morning into the afternoon, bringing enhanced cloud cover as well as isolated chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. After an overnight lull, similar conditions are then expected Monday. A larger northern stream trough will be digging southward from the PacNW on Tuesday. Models generally support this feature gradually cutting off from California into the Great Basin through the middle of the week, eventually translating eastward through the Intermountain West on into the weekend. Ensembles mean PWAT anomalies generally push into the 150-200% of normal range (AI ECM locally up to 250% across the Four Corners region). That said, there are some differences in exact timing, likely owing to the cutoff nature of the trough. Overall though, the general pattern would contain enhanced upper and midlevel support, which in combination with ample moisture would result in more widespread precipitation chances across the area. Current forecast water amounts have not changed markedly, with general storm total amounts (Tuesday through Friday) of around 0.50" to 1.50". Locally higher amounts of roughly 2.00" to 2.50" are noted in some orographically favored high terrain in a south to southwest flow regime. With the cutoff nature of the low, there is not much of a cold air tap, with 700 mb temps only falling to around 0C to -3C later Thursday into the weekend as the trough axis works in. Snow levels will remain above 10000 ft until then, only gradually falling to around 8500-9500 ft as the modestly cooler air moves in. Models in turn do support accumulating snow on the order of 4-12" or so in some of that higher terrain. && && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions prevail under clear skies at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period. Generally light northwesterly winds continue this evening, transitioning to the southeast between 02-03z. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all regional terminals. A majority of terminals will continue to see light, terrain driven flows through Saturday; KSGU will see light winds develop overnight before enhanced easterly winds redevelop Saturday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1206 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... A strengthening ridge of high pressure is noted over the area, helping to maintain dry conditions. Temperatures are generally running near to a little below normal across much of the area, though will nudge upwards for Saturday. A grazing system will bring isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two to southern Utah Sunday and Monday, with increased cloud cover expected elsewhere. By Tuesday a larger scale trough is expected to dig into the Great Basin, gradually cutting off and then shifting eastward through the week. In combination with ample moisture, this system will bring unsettled conditions and more widespread precipitation to Utah. Forecast water amounts Tuesday on through Friday are roughly 0.50" to 1.50", with locally up to 2.00" to 2.50" in some of the favored high terrain. Snow will remain above 10000 feet through Thursday. Slightly cooler air moving in late Thursday on into Friday will allow snow levels to drop to roughly 8500-9500 feet, allowing some accumulating snow at higher elevations. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Warthen AVIATION...Whitam FIRE WEATHER...Warthen HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  805 FXAK68 PAFC 170034 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 434 PM AKDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Discussion: The vertically stacked low continues to spin in the central Gulf as it slowly progresses northeastwards towards Southeast Alaska through the weekend. The diminishing of showers along the coast early this afternoon will be short-lived as the next shortwave trough rotating along the northern periphery of the low reaches the Gulf coast by late this afternoon. Shower coverage is expected to pick back up through Saturday morning for the northern Gulf coast and Prince William Sound with the arrival of the shortwave and as the low center nears the coast. Any lingering chances of precipitation for inland areas continues to decrease through this evening, with mainly dry conditions expected through Sunday as off-shore flow takes over. Snow levels will stay fairly consistent around 2500' as the low translates across the Gulf, so will still see rain changing over to snow at higher elevations while showers still persist. A weak front will move across the Alaska interior Saturday morning. Colder northwesterly flow will help to dry things out, but models are hinting that the front could squeeze out some light precipitation of the Upper Susitna and Copper Basin. However, overall confidence is low (20-40%) that any precipitation out of this frontal passage will amount to anything too impactful. Cooler temperatures will move in behind this system with low temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s for most of inland Southcentral for Sunday morning. Looking ahead to early next week, a Bering Sea low will send its front into the Gulf, bringing an uptick in winds across the Gulf and along the coast for Monday. Model spread remains fairly high with regards to a potential triple-point low spinning up in the Gulf, but expect precipitation to begin to overspread Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai by early Monday. -JH/PP && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Showery conditions will taper off across Southwest Alaska tonight and the Alaska Peninsula as residual low pressure dissipates over the area. Rain is expected to be the primary precipitation type during the daytime hours, however, overnight temperatures may dip below freezing, allowing for any precipitation to fall as snow or a rain/snow mix. A slowly decaying front producing southerly small craft winds and light rain currently situated over Adak will push eastward this evening, reaching the Pribilofs and Unalaska by Saturday morning. Benign conditions expected through most of the weekend for Southwest Alaska until the next front moves in Sunday afternoon. By Saturday afternoon, the front, then situated over Unimak Island and False Pass, will be significantly diminishing in strength. However, behind it, a developing compact low from the North Pacific will track northeast, passing the Adak and Atka area Saturday morning. As it catches up to the degrading front, the features will merge in the Central Bering and continue to press the weakening ridge downstream toward Southwest Alaska. Expect a return to wet and windy weather over Unalaska to Pribilofs by Saturday evening. Saturday will be relatively quiet for Southwest Alaska, but by Sunday afternoon, this new Bering system will reach the Southwest coast where rain, snow, and south to southeasterly flow returns. As moisture spreads inland, expect areas of interior Southwest to receive more snow than rain, given the cooler temperatures built up. Through Monday, areas such as Sleetmute and Crooked Creek may get 1 to 4 inches of snow. Confidence on this is still low-to-moderate (30% to 50%) given the dependency on local temperatures, so stay tuned. Out west, a lobe of tropical energy will be swinging up into the Western Aleutians, bringing up the chance for isolated thunderstorms over Shemya and Attu as well as the surrounding marine areas. This energy is expected to shift northward into the Western Bering and dissipate through Sunday night into Monday morning. -CL/KM && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)... The seasonably active weather pattern in the Gulf continues through the long term period, with a fairly inactive pattern poised for the Bering. By Tuesday morning, a decaying surface low along the northern Gulf coastline will continue to bring gusty easterly winds and rain to the area. For the Alaska Peninsula, Bristol Bay, and inland Southcentral locations, expect unsettled and showery weather to continue through early next week as weak shortwaves rotate through the upper level flow. Additionally, gusty northerly winds enhanced by cold air advection on the back side of the low will be possible across the eastern Aleutian Islands and AK Peninsula, especially through favored gaps and passes. By mid to late next week, a more impactful storm is expected to build in the southern Gulf/northern Pacific, entering our area south of the Alaska Peninsula. Widespread rainfall and strengthening winds are expected to spread across the Gulf of Alaska including Kodiak Island. In the Bering by Wednesday afternoon, there is quite a large spread in model solutions, with the GFS suggesting a 995 mb gale-force low over the Central Aleutians, and the Canadian and EC solutions suggesting a 1024 mb ridge blocking all active weather in the area at that time. By Thursday, this contended low may shift into the Gulf, bringing another round of winds and rain to Southcentral, while other solutions are spreading the high pressure ridge at that time. Both solutions suggest a new frontal system entering the westernmost Bering/Aleutians by Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor this system and the progression of guidance. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this evening. Cooling temperatures and clearing skies overnight could allow for formation of low stratus late tonight into Saturday morning, possibly bringing ceilings into MVFR range or lower. Confidence in the development of low stratus is still relatively low, and low cloud formation will depend on the degree of clearing of upper level cloud cover tonight into early Saturday. && $$  795 FXUS61 KLWX 170034 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 834 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cancelled severe thunderstorm watch early areawide. Expanded Freeze Watch to central Maryland and western Loudoun. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Strong cold front moves through this evening. - 2) Frost and/or freezing temperatures are possible this weekend. - 3) Nor'easter to develop off the Carolina coast late in the weekend lingers much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong cold front moves through this evening. Strong cold front moving through southern Maryland as of 0030Z Oct 17. Some rain developing on the backside with gradient winds picking up. Nothing hazardous in terms of rain or wind aside from over the waters. Forecast remains on track tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost and/or freezing temperatures are possible this weekend. Given very favorable setup for radiational cooling, expanded Freeze Watch to central MD and western Loudoun where probabilities for near 32F exist. Previous discussion follows... Strong cold advection will ensue within northwesterly flow behind the cold front tonight through the day tomorrow. Upslope showers in the Alleghenies may even end as a few flakes of snow late tonight, but no accumulation is expected. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the 40s by daybreak tomorrow (mid- upper 30s mountains). A few showers could linger from Central Virginia to Southern Maryland tomorrow morning, but gradual clearing is expected tomorrow afternoon as the upper trough axis progresses to our east and large scale subsidence starts to increase. Temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow, with highs in the 50s (40s mountains). High pressure will gradually build in from the west tomorrow night as a nor'easter simultaneously starts to develop off the Carolina coastline. The main question tomorrow night is which locations will decouple. The setup for radiational cooling will be nearly ideal in locations that go calm, with clear skies expected and dewpoints in the 20s. Temperatures will likely plummet into the 20s and lower 30s where winds go calm. Confidence is currently the highest for winds going calm to the west of the Blue Ridge, with greater uncertainty with respect to the winds further east as the nor'easter develops offshore. A Freeze Watch has been issued to the west of the Blue Ridge, where confidence is highest for sub-freezing temperatures. Some frost or sub-freezing temperatures can't be ruled out further east, either. Forecast confidence decreases further moving into Sunday. Forecast models show considerable spread with respect to the location of the aforementioned nor'easter during that time period. Some solutions keep the system offshore, while others have it retrograding further westward, which could lead to impacts locally. KEY MESSAGE 3...Nor'easter to develop off the Carolina coast late in the weekend lingers much of next week. Part of the upper trough that swings through tonight into Saturday will cutoff along the front stalling to the south later this weekend. This result in the development of a nor'easter off the Carolina coast. This system then meanders offshore/near the coast, but guidance varies widely on its placement and strength. Since it will be cut off from the main steering flow, it could persist much of next week. Northeast breezes and occasional rain chances are possible, with the highest chances further east. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Winds shift to out of the northwest and pick up behind the front this evening. North to northwesterly winds will then gust to around 20 to 30 knots through the day tomorrow. Other then a potential brief period of MVFR ceilings at CHO late tonight, VFR conditions are expected tonight through this weekend. Winds this weekend will be out of the north to northeast as a coastal low develops offshore. Some rain or sub-VFR could develop Mon-Tue with a nor'easter lurking offshore, especially for areas further east. NE winds could become breezy at times depending on how close the system gets. && .MARINE... Winds then shift to out of the northwest behind the front tonight, with SCA gusts continuing. Gale Warnings go into effect to the south of the Bay Bridge tomorrow and continue tomorrow night. SCAs remain in effect elsewhere through tomorrow night. After that, attention turns to a nor'easter that is forecast to develop offshore. SCA conditions likely continue through the day Sunday in northeasterly flow, but forecast uncertainty during that time period remains high. NE winds around a nor'easter to the south may remain gusty much of next week. In fact, gales are possible at times over the wider/southern waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Annapolis remain under a Coastal Flood Advisory through the tide cycle this evening. Water levels are forecast to rapidly decrease within northwesterly flow behind a strong cold front tonight into Saturday. Water levels may rapidly rise again on Sunday as a coastal low develops offshore and winds turn to more out of the northeast. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ008. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for MDZ003>006-501-502-507-509-510. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014. VA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for VAZ025>031-503>505-507-508. WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ050>053-055-501>506. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ530-531- 538>542. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ532>534- 537-543. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ532>534-537-543. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ535-536. && $$ DISCUSSION...DHOF/KJP/CPB AVIATION...DHOF/KJP/CPB MARINE...DHOF/KJP/CPB/SRT  816 FXUS65 KABQ 170034 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 634 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 629 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - The first freeze of the season is forecast for portions of eastern, central and northwest NM tonight into Saturday morning. - Precipitation chances return Sunday across western NM, then increase and spread east across the area through late week as a Pacific storm system impacts the region. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A surface high will settle over eastern NM tonight, winds will relax and the high clouds across southeast NM will decrease. Additionally, following last night's backdoor cold front, much drier air has move into the region. This will set up excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight and a widespread freeze is expected. A few locations dropped below freezing last night, namely Las Vegas, Moriarty and Estancia, thus the growing season has ended in those locations and the Freeze Watch was cancelled. Otherwise, the first freeze of the season is still expected for much of central and eastern NM, as well as portions of the Northwest Plateau. Have also added all of Chaves County into the Freeze Warning. A few caveats: Areas around Farmington are not expected to freeze, but areas south of Burnham are. In the Albuquerque Metro, the Sunport and northeast heights are not expected to freeze, but areas around Belen, Los Lunas, the ABQ Valley and near KAEG are expected to freeze. Similarly, KROW may not freeze, but portions of northeast Chaves County are more likely to drop below freezing. A deepening lee side surface trough will develop on Saturday, and the resultant southerly winds will begin the warming trend for eastern NM. A few breezes will be noted across northeast NM, but otherwise, it should be a quiet day with temperatures near to below normal. Saturday night's low temps will trend warmer as well. Given the growing season will likely end for many tonight, and warmer temps forecast, no additional Freeze Watches have been issued. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The upper low off the west coast of the northern Baja Peninsula will slowly fill and eject northeastward on Sunday and Sunday night. Pacific moisture will advect into NM ahead of the system allowing for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across western NM as soon as Sunday morning. What is left of the system will cross the Four Corners on Monday, and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should spread eastward to at least the Central Mtn Chain. Precipitation amounts will be light both Sunday and Monday. All eyes will then be on an upper level low diving southward along the west coast and the continued moisture advection into NM ahead of it. Precipitation coverage should gradually increase Tuesday and Wednesday, but precipitation coverage is currently expected to be greatest on Thursday and potentially through Friday as the system shifts eastward and large scale ascent increases over NM. PWATs will increase from around 0.6-0.75" on Sun/Mon to 0.8-1.0 by Thu. Snow levels will be high, thus snow is expected only for the highest peaks. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be common elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. High clouds will move over the area from the southwest on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next seven days. Winds will decrease in speed tonight, then a widespread freeze is on tap Saturday morning. Cool but quiet conditions will be the rule Saturday afternoon. Thereafter, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will return to the forecast Sunday and Monday across central and western NM, with more widespread precipitation expected Tuesday through at least Thursday. Wetting rain is most likely to be spotty through at least Tuesday, but better chances for widespread wetting rainfall exists Wednesday and Thursday. Snow will be possible across the highest peaks. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 36 66 40 61 / 0 0 0 20 Dulce........................... 28 66 32 62 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 31 61 38 60 / 0 0 5 10 Gallup.......................... 25 65 36 62 / 0 0 10 20 El Morro........................ 28 61 36 62 / 0 0 10 30 Grants.......................... 26 62 33 63 / 0 0 10 20 Quemado......................... 31 63 35 65 / 0 0 20 40 Magdalena....................... 29 58 38 61 / 0 0 5 10 Datil........................... 27 58 34 61 / 0 0 10 30 Reserve......................... 32 67 37 66 / 0 0 20 30 Glenwood........................ 34 68 43 68 / 0 0 20 30 Chama........................... 30 60 37 58 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 36 61 42 60 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 29 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 62 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 24 56 26 56 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 11 60 16 61 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 29 62 26 62 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 30 63 31 67 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 33 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 31 62 34 62 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 29 63 32 62 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 36 63 41 65 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 34 65 40 65 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 31 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 34 64 41 66 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 27 64 36 67 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 33 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 26 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 33 66 40 67 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 27 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 34 63 40 64 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 34 65 42 66 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 33 64 40 68 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 30 60 36 61 / 0 0 5 5 Tijeras......................... 29 62 38 63 / 0 0 5 5 Edgewood........................ 25 61 32 65 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 20 63 26 66 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 26 59 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 26 60 33 62 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 26 60 33 61 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 32 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 27 56 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 27 62 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 25 66 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 24 67 27 71 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 26 62 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 29 66 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 27 61 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 33 66 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 30 63 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 29 67 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 31 63 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 28 64 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 32 62 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 33 61 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 30 60 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 29 59 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ201-217>220-223>225-228-230>241. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...44  881 FXUS62 KMHX 170036 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 836 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Nor'easter expected to develop off of the NC coast this weekend. Confidence is increasing regarding track and intensity as well as minor to moderate coastal impacts with vulnerable areas seeing the potential for more significant impacts. Storm Watches now in effect for outer marine zones. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold front moves through early Saturday, with a low forming and bringing a potential nor'easter near the coast through the weekend and into next week. 2) Drastically cooler behind the front and low for Sunday, along with continued breezy northeasterly winds. Marine: Gale Warnings in effect with Storm Watches for outer marine zones. Prolonged period of strong winds and high seas as nor'easter lingers offshore for several days. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Forecast is beginning to come into much greater certainty with this run of the forecast models, especially in regards to a cold front moving through eastern NC on Saturday and then continuing offshore. There is now HIGH confidence that a nor'easter will form offshore and bring impacts to eastern NC in the form of strong winds, high waves, and coastal flooding as well as extremely dangerous marine conditions through the weekend. Uncertainty remains on the back end of the forecast. Exactly how long it lingers offshore and its eventual route upon exit still have low confidence at this time. What we do know is that the alternate scenario that excluded the formation of the low is now gone and as a result the expected values for winds and seas has increased. As far as the cold front is concerned that will be the catalyst for the eventual system, expect winds to shift to northeasterly early Saturday morning bringing rain chances to the area for much of the day on Saturday. While amounts are not expected to be extreme, a widespread half of an inch to an inch of rain throughout the day is likely. Winds will pick up throughout the day with 25-30 mph gusts common. Values will increase from west to east with areas near the coast experiencing much higher values. A wind advisory in effect for Western Carteret, Mainland Dare and Mainland Hyde Counties from 18z Saturday through 00z Tuesday. For the Core and Outer Banks as well as Downeast Carteret County, a high wind watch is in effect from 00z Sunday through 6z on Monday. 2-4 foot above ground level coastal flooding will be possible with minor to moderate impacts throughout the Outer Banks, Core Banks and Downeast Carteret County. Impacts are expected to both sound and oceanside locales with potentially significant impacts to vulnerable areas on the ocean side. A mix of coastal flood headlines is in effect to cover these hazards. Additionally, a high surf advisory is in effect for the Outer Banks with breaking waves of generally 8-12 feet expected in the surf zone. A moderate to high risk of rip currents is also expected through much of the week. KEY MESSAGE 2... After record breaking heat the last several days, temperatures are expected to cool significantly. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range with cooler values inland and warmer temperatures near the coast. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s inland just after the frontal passage to the low 50s by the end of the week with coastal locations in the upper 40s to low 50s early in the forecast period to low 50s to low 60s by the end of next week. Winds will remain breezy, particularly in the afternoons depending upon the eventual track of the offshore nor'easter. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.Southwest winds this evening will flip around to the northwest, then north, overnight as a cold front moves through. Winds are expected to become gusty fairly quickly in the wake of the passage of the front. Additionally, CIGs will quickly lower, bottoming out at IFR for a time. IFR conditions may only last a few hours, but this is the type of setup where IFR CIGs sometimes last longer than guidance suggests. In light of this, the TAFs reflect a longer period of IFR conditions, especially at KOAJ, KEWN, and KMRH. Eventually some drier air working in should help to raise CIGs to MVFR, or even low VFR, especially at KISO and KPGV. The low CIGs will be accompanied by areas of light to moderate RA with MVFR VIS at times. Some heavier rain may develop with IFR VIS, but that is a lower confidence scenario. Regarding post-frontal winds, it will be breezy with 20-30kt gusts expected at times, especially on Saturday. Gusts to 35kt will be possible at KMRH. Outlook (Sat night through Mon): Clearing skies Sat night but winds and wind gusts will remain elevated as nor'easter lingers offshore. Confidence in the eventual route of the nor'easter remains uncertain at this time and this will likely have some influence on the aviation forecast through much of next week. More details will become available as confidence increases. && .MARINE... Latest obs show winds beginning to pick up offshore with sustained values of 10-15 kts gusting 15-20 kts. Latest obs show continuing W/SW winds 5-10 knots with seas mainly 2-3 ft representing the last pleasant boating conditions for quite some time as a cold front is expected to move through the area on Saturday with a low pressure system forming into a potential nor'easter which will linger offshore well into next week. Outlook (Sat through Tues): The aforementioned cold front will bring northerly to NNWerly winds to all of the waters by 12z Saturday. Winds will pick up significantly by saturday afternoon as nor'ester begins the early stages of its genesis over the Gulf Stream. Gale Warnings are now in effect for all waters from Saturday afternoon and will linger into the middle of next week. In addition a Storm Watch is now in effect for the central and southern 20-60 nm Marine Zones from 00z Sunday through 06z on Monday. During this time seas are expected to be anywhere from 8-12 ft in the 0-20 nm zones upwards of 20-25 feet in the outer waters of the 60 nm zones. Wave periods will peak around 13-15 s Sunday and Monday. For now the duration of the event remains extremely uncertain with the possibility of dangerous marine conditions possibly continuing through the entirety of next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ047- 081-195. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ094-194. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for NCZ195-199. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ196. High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for NCZ196-203>205. High Surf Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday morning for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-135-230-231. Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136- 137. Gale Warning from noon Saturdayto 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152- 154. Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156- 158. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ180. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ182-184. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for AMZ182-184. Gale Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ186-188. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ186-188. && $$ DISCUSSION...RTE/RJ AVIATION...RM/RJ MARINE...RTE/RJ  665 FXZS60 NSTU 170052 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 152 PM SST Fri Oct 16 2026 .Short term... TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Tropical Storm Wati, about 490 miles east of Tutuila, is slowly moving south southeast. Satellite shows low level convections passing over the island chain, holding scattered to numerous showers. RAOB from this afternoon depicted a saturated low level and dry mid to higher levels profile. This shows brief and passing showers moving over the islands and not heavy rain. Observations across the islands recorded less an inch of rainfall in the last 24 hours per stations. Breezy south winds will persist through Sunday night. A weak trough developing over Savai'i and Upolu on Saturday night will expand over Tutuila and Manu'a on Sunday morning. This will increase showers to numerous through Sunday night. .Long term... MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Numerous showers will continue through Monday night as weak trough remains near the island chain. High pressure to the far southwest will shift winds to the southeast and slowly brings stable weather on Tuesday. The stable weather from the high pressure will persist through the rest of the new week. Strong trades will remain throughout the new week. && .Marine... Rough seas of 8 to 10 feet will slightly subside tonight 7 to 9 feet. Tropical Storm Wati about 430 nautical miles east of Tutuila is slowly tracking south southeast and intensifying. As the TS Wati moves south southeast, rough seas of 7 to 9 feet will remain through the weekend and into the new week. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory remains in effect Small Craft Advisory remains in effect && $$  712 FXUS66 KLOX 170055 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 555 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...16/521 PM. A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind will bring widespread strong winds and critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. In addition, the very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat-related illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down is expected Sunday with a chance of widespread rain by Tuesday or Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...16/112 PM. Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the period. At upper levels, low to the southwest will undercut the ridge this weekend. At the surface, offshore gradients will gradually weaken with weak onshore gradients returning Sunday and Monday. Forecast-wise for the short term, main issues remain Santa Ana winds and the heat. As mentioned, offshore gradients will continue through Sunday morning, but will exhibit a weakening trend. At the same time, the upper level support will also weaken. So, will expect the offshore winds to decrease. So, with the afternoon forecast, have extended the current WIND ADVISORIES through 200 PM Saturday. For the LA county mountains, will let the HIGH WIND WARNINGS continue through 800 PM this evening and have issued WIND ADVISORIES from 800 PM this evening through 200 PM Saturday. By Saturday night and Sunday morning, the offshore winds should diminish below advisory levels with a return of weak onshore winds Sunday afternoon through Monday. The second concern is the heat. With the continued offshore flow, very warm conditions will persist through Saturday. Based on current Heat Risk forecasts, the coastal plain will continue at HEAT ADVISORY levels through Saturday evening. So, will continue with the HEAT ADVISORIES through 800 PM Saturday. For Sunday and Monday, a welcome cooling trend is expected with the return of onshore flow and lowering thicknesses. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...16/112 PM. For the extended period, models are in decent synoptic agreement through the period. Main feature of note will be an upper low, dropping south off the CA coast on Tuesday then moving inland across the area on Wednesday and Thursday. Models differ slightly in the speed of this low moving across the area, but those differences should be minimal. So, forecast-wise, main concern in the extended period will be rain chances, associated with the upper low. Looking at the ensembles, most every member from every model indicates some amount of rain between Tuesday night and Thursday morning. However, the range of potential amounts remains quite large. At this time, ensemble means indicate totals between 0.25 and 1.00 inches which is a reasonable early estimate. There is about a 20-30% chance of totals greater than 1.00 inch. Will continue to monitor this situation closely as potential amounts are likely to change from day-to-day. Other than the rain chances, no significant issues are expected. Temperatures will experience a noticeable cooling trend with high temperatures only topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. At this time, no significant wind issues are expected. && .AVIATION...17/0053Z. At 00Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. High confidence in VFR conditions, unless a fire breaks out upwind of an airport. NE-E winds will be ongoing for many sites with UDDF near any mountains and LLWS 10-20 knots near most airports, especially those with winds above 20 knots. Moderate confidence on wind forecasts (speed +/- 5 mph and direction +/- 30 degrees). KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday. High confidence in east winds dominating this evening and Saturday morning with little to no west influence during those times. Moderate confidence in speed and timing. LLWS 5-15 knots also possible through 03Z. East winds should fall below 08 knots by 07Z. East winds around 8 knots with gusts to 15 kt are likely Saturday 14-20Z. KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday. High confidence in east winds dominating today with little to no south influence. LLWS 15-25 knots also possible at times through 06Z. && .MARINE...16/104 PM. NE to E winds will bring short period and hazard seas to many nearshore waters into Saturday. Winds will be strongest from Ventura to Santa Monica where winds where pockets of 20 to 30 knot winds will form at times. This is a touch lower than earlier today, so the previous Gale Warning has been replaced with a Small Craft Advisory. Gusts of 10 to 20 knots will likely also affect the nearshore Central Coast waters as well as the waters from Orange County to Catalina Island. These winds will likely have rapid fluctuations. Benign conditions expected on Sunday. If you have the option, go out on Sunday and try to stay off the waters Friday and Saturday. Small Craft Advisory NW winds will increase Sunday Night and Monday, especially off the Central Coast. A moderate- strength storm system is becoming more likely in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. && .FIRE WEATHER...16/329 PM. Santa Ana winds have peaked today, with gusts mostly in the 50 to 70 mph range across the LA/Ventura county mountains and foothills, while coastal and valley areas have gusted in the 35 to 55 mph range. For San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara county mountains and Cuyama Valley, east winds have gusted between 30 and 45 mph today. The offshore winds will gradually subside in strength and areal coverage later this afternoon into tonight. By Saturday, offshore winds are expected to be 10 to 15 mph weaker in most areas as computed to today, mainly due to less upper level wind support. Meanwhile, temperatures have climbed to between 90 and 100 degrees for many coastal and valley areas today, with slight cooling expected on Saturday for coastal areas. Minimum humidities will generally lower into the 8 to 20 percent range, with poor overnight recoveries. Cooler and more humid conditions are likely next week. Gusty southwest to northwest winds are expected Sunday and Monday, with light to moderate rain likely sometime Tuesday through Thursday. Current Red Flag Warnings remain on track. All of this will add up to a high risk for large fires and rapid fire growth over most of the area, especially over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties as well as the mountains and foothills of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties where Red Flag Warnings are in place. Residents in high fire risk areas should be prepared in case a fire starts. Review your evacuation plans...what would you bring, where would you go. Stay extra aware of your surroundings. Make sure your vehicle is fueled up. For everyone, avoid using anything that could spark a fire. Be prepared for power outages that are likely over a good portion of our areas. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Saturday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354>358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 342-345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Saturday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Thompson AVIATION...Phillips MARINE...RK FIRE...Gomberg/Kittell SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox