901 FXUS61 KCTP 170116 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 916 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Severe threat has ended. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Blustery and much turning much colder tonight and Saturday 2) Frost and freeze conditions Saturday night into early Sunday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Blustery and much turning much colder tonight and Saturday The post-frontal winds gusting 25-35 mph direct much colder air into CPA through tonight into Saturday. Clouds and winds have resulted in slightly warmer overnight low temps so advective freeze is probably off the table for the NW mtns. Low level flow turns more northerly overnight which should limit lake effect response, although a few rain/snow showers remain possible over the higher terrain. Min wind chills by Saturday morning will be in the 25-35F range across the western and central Alleghenies. Highs on Saturday will be 20 to 30 degrees colder vs. Friday. ------------------------------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost and freeze conditions Saturday night into early Sunday Frost/freeze still looks good for Saturday night into early Sunday morning as clouds fade and winds subside. Issued Freeze watch for active zones in the late innings of the growing season. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Widespread MVFR cigs and rain showers have developed along and west of the Alleghenies this evening. Medium confidence (60 pct) in MVFR cigs spreading east into UNV by 03z. Lower chance (<40 pct) at IPT and <20 pct chance for MDT and LNS. Periods of IFR conds are possible at JST (60 pct chance) and BFD (<40 pct chance). Showers over the west will gradually taper off by 12z Sat, and VFR conds become likely at all TAF sites by 16z Sat as much drier air erodes the clouds. NW winds will gust 20-30 kts into the day Saturday. There may be periods tonight when the sfc wind is light enough for LLWS to be present, especially at IPT. Winds will become light areawide Saturday night, combining with the cold air to result in widespread frost and freeze conditions. Outlook... Sun-Tue...AM fog possible; otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ004-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Steinbugl/Colbert  886 FXUS62 KRAH 170116 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 915 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Slightly increased POPs across eastern areas next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 PM Friday... 1) A cold front moving across central North Carolina tonight will bring light to moderate rain to all locations and sharply colder temperatures for Saturday. 2) Patchy frost possible in the Piedmont Sunday morning and Monday morning, followed by moderating but below-normal temperatures for the workweek. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 PM Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front moving across central North Carolina tonight will bring light to moderate rain to all locations and sharply colder temperatures for Saturday. Although a band of convective showers could bring a brief period of precipitation this evening, a more widespread area of rain will move into central North Carolina late this evening into the overnight hours. Low pressure will develop along the front by Saturday morning, bringing the chance of rain to near 100% from the Triangle east for Saturday morning. The heaviest rain is forecast to occur Saturday morning, but rain will linger east of the Triad into the afternoon. While Thursday night's low temperatures were generally in the 60s, tonight's lows will be slightly colder, ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s. However, it will not be possible to step outside Saturday and not notice the difference in temperatures from today. One or two isolated locations may manage to reach the 60s, but otherwise widespread 50s are forecast for Saturday's highs, with the return of sunshine likely by sunset. KEY MESSAGE 2... Patchy frost possible in the Piedmont Sunday morning and Monday morning, followed by moderating but below-normal temperatures for the workweek. In the wake of Saturday's cold front, a deep shortwave will swing across the region and stall roughly along the Carolina coast through at least the middle of next week. A strong 1034 mb surface high will build eastward across the Midwest, positioning itself adjacent to a coastal low that is expected to develop in response to the upper- level trough. This strong pressure gradient setup will maintain a steady and at times breezy north-northeasterly flow early in the week, along with a gradual increase in low-end rain chances each day, though exact details will depend heavily on the position and movement of the upper low. The airmass behind the front will support overnight lows in the 30s across the Piedmont, with potential for radiational cooling into the lower 30s. However, the tighter pressure gradient should maintain at least light stirring overnight Saturday and Sunday night, while high- level moisture wraps back around the upper low across central and eastern NC. Consequently, while temperatures may warrant a Frost Advisory with some temps in the mid-30s, it remains uncertain whether winds will fully decouple to allow for more widespread impacts. For the remainder of the week, weather impacts will be closely tied to the position of the upper low. The low looks to remain cut off from the primary westerlies and may drift south-southwestward late in the week as ridging attempts to build overtop of it into the central Appalachians. Operational guidance (GFS/ECMWF) remains west of the AI-based counterparts, though all agreeing better with the GEFS mean than the eastern-outlying EPS mean. Thus, confidence in sensible weather impacts remains somewhat low. Expect a gradual moderation in temperatures, though highs will remain below normal, along with increasing cloud cover, particularly over eastern counties. Latest guidance continues to support slight chance PoPs east of US-1 each day, which makes sense based onmodel trends and proximity of the upper low but overall weak forcing. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 900 PM Friday... TAF period: A strong cold front will move through central NC from NW to SE from about 01z to 08z. While wind gusts have diminished this evening, they will pick back up again to 15-25 kts along and behind the front, shifting from SW to N. The CAMS depict a band of convection moving through just ahead of the front, but they are overdone compared to what is on radar now, as isolated showers around INT/GSO have largely diminished, with any thunder and deeper convection just north of the VA border. The best chance for this would be around the Triad, but given a lack of instability, am skeptical there will be much precipitation until widespread light to moderate rain develops after around 06z from west to east as a potent shortwave aloft approaches. Widespread MVFR ceilings will also develop overnight, with a period of IFR likely in most places SE of the Triad on Saturday morning, possibly lingering into mid afternoon at FAY and RWI. Visibilities are likely to drop to MVFR (and potentially IFR at times) with the rain as well. VFR conditions and dry weather will return from NW to SE from mid afternoon into early evening. Northerly winds will also increase a bit further during the day, gusting up to 20-30 kts. Outlook: A surface low is forecast to develop along the cold front once it reaches the Atlantic Ocean, which could result in several days of intermittent showers at FAY/RWI, although confidence is low as to whether MVFR ceilings would also be present. Northerly wind gusts between 20-30 kt will also be possible each afternoon, with the lowest gusts at INT/GSO and the highest gusts at RWI. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 (as of 2PM RDU has reached 87) KFAY: 90/1925 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/14/2026 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/BLS AVIATION...Danco/Green  228 FXPQ50 PGUM 170127 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 1127 AM ChST Sat Oct 17 2026 .Update... As the actual path of TY Champi becomes more apparent, minor revisions have been made to winds and weather due to Champi approaching farther south than previously expected at a stronger intensity. && .Prev discussion... /issued 729 AM ChST Sat Oct 17 2026/ Marianas Update... Typhoon Champi continues to approach. Most models now take it close to Guam, so they appear to be converging on a solution. It's satellite presentation has been improving, with the center clearing slightly in an attempt to form an eye. Forecast was changed slightly Saturday to bring scattered heavy showers in by the afternoon with the rest remaining unchanged. Damaging winds are anticipated to begin late tonight around midnight. Hydrology... As Typhoon Champi approaches, it will bring, among other things, copious rainfall. Amounts for Sunday and Monday are expected to reach 4 to 6 inches at Tinian and Saipan, 10 to 15 inches at Rota, and 12 to 20 inches at Guam. After coordinating with the National Water Center regarding their national Flood Hazard Outlook, Tinian and Saipan are Limited, Rota is Considerable, and Guam is Locally Catastrophic. The Flash Flood Watch will likely be upgraded to a Flash Flood Warning tonight if not sooner. Tropical Systems... Champi has just been upgraded to Typhoon 29W. Champi is centered near 12.0 degrees north and longitude 149.6 degrees east. It has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Champi is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph. Champi is currently about 340 miles east-southeast of Guam. Champi is currently expected to pass slightly south of the island of Guam. This is the general track of many of the AI-enhanced models. The physics based models are taking Champi either over or just north of Guam. It's starting to look like a close hit will be inevitable, the question will be, as it often is, how close? 10 miles away can be a lot different from 30 miles. For more information on Typhoon Champi, please see the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued by the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ32 PGUM and the Tropical Cyclone Warning issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN32 PGTW. Eastern Micronesia... There are three major features in the region, the monsoon trough, a buffer circulation to the south of majuro, and a low that is near the Date Line. The monsoon trough is currently over northern RMI, (over Enewetak, Bikini, Rongelap, Wotje and north of Majuro) and intersects with the low near the Date Line. The buffer circulation is aiding in the convection near Majuro by tightening the convergence zone. This zone is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Flare ups of convection can be expected through middle of next week. For Pohnpei and Kosrae, a short lull in showers is expected for the next few days, then as the buffer circulation moves more northward showers are expected to return near the beginning of next week. These showers are anticipated to remaining through at least the middle of next week. As for the seas, near Pohnpei, the primary swell will be out of the south for the next day or so as Typhoon Champi moves further away, then the trade swell is expected to become the dominate swell. Overall seas are expected to be the highest near Pohnpei at 6 to 7 feet, and tapering down 4 to 5 feet to the east of Majuro. Winds are expected to remain light to moderate through the middle of next week. Western Micronesia... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Chuuk. The main weather maker for the region is Typhoon Champi to the north of Chuuk. Chuuk is in the monsoonal inflow notch. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected with winds of moderate to strong. These conditions are expected to last through the early morning hours. Once Champi moves further west, conditions are are expected to improve as early as mid to late Sunday morning. Benign weather is expected to return through the middle of next week. For Palau and Yap a benign weather is expected through the middle of next week. For the seas at Palau and Yap, a north swell produced by Champi is expected to build in as Champi builds in strength and moves westward and start making its presence known as early as Sunday night into Monday morning. Seas are expected to be near 7 to 8 feet near Chuuk and tapering down 3 to 4 feet near Palau. Prev discussion... /issued 853 PM ChST Fri Oct 16 2026/ Marianas Synopsis... Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the Marianas. Tropical Storm Champi, currently east of the Marianas, continues its trek toward the islands. Discussion... The big story, TS Champi. Champi continues to slowly strengthen east of Guam as it moves west. The latest forecast track brings Champi over northern Guam Sunday morning, with tropical storm force winds arriving before midnight Saturday. Therefore, a Typhoon Warning was issued for Guam and Rota, with a Tropical Storm Warning issued for Tinian and Saipan, with a Typhoon Watch continuing in case Champi makes a turn to the north. The forecast for tonight and Saturday maintains the current drier pattern. However, that will change drastically as Champi approaches. Tropical storm force winds, increasing heavy showers and thunderstorms will move into the region Saturday evening. By Sunday morning, we can expect at least category 2 typhoon force winds at Guam, category 1 at Rota and strong tropical storm winds at Tinian and Saipan. Winds and convection will continue over the islands through Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possibly ending Sunday night, after midnight. After Champi exits the region, a dry pattern looks to move into the region around Monday and continuing through the end of the week. Residents of the Marianas should make sure that they are prepared for typhoon force sustained winds of up to 105 mph. Stay safe and follow our forecasts for any updates as they occur. Marine... Marine and surf conditions will deteriorate rapidly, beginning Saturday evening as TS Champi approaches. A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Guam and Rota waters, with a Tropical Storm Warning now in effect and Typhoon Watch remaining in effect for Tinian and Saipan. Combined seas will remain at or below 7 feet through Saturday morning, then begin to build as a large east swell from Champi enters the waters. As Champi moves through the waters, seas could reach as high as 35 feet near the center of Champi, depending on how much Champi strengthens. Seas will be lowest for Tinian and Saipan waters, but still reach around 19 feet as Champi moves through. The large seas produced by Champi are expected to produce dangerous/deadly surf and rip currents, as well as coastal flooding, with inundation of 5 feet or more near the eye of Champi, and as high as 1 to 3 feet at Tinian and Saipan. Surf could reach as high as 26 feet at Guam and 19 feet at Tinian and Saipan. Rota can expect around 20 feet. Seas could remain hazardous through Monday, after Champi departs the region. Tropical Systems... As of 700 PM ChST, the center of Tropical Storm Champi (29W) was located near 12N152E, which is about 510 miles east-southeast of Guam. It was moving west at 13 mph, with maximum sustained winds having increased to 60 mph near the center. Champi is expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed through Saturday. This general forecast track will take Champi close to, or over, Guam Sunday morning. Champi is expected to go through a period of rapid intensification over the next 24 hours, becoming a typhoon by Saturday and strengthening further thereafter. Winds and rain will come in rapidly, with winds becoming dangerous and life threatening very soon after onset. Do not let a false sense of normalcy now dictate your actions tomorrow; prepare NOW! For more information, please refer to the bulletins issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN32 PGTW, and by the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam under WMO header WTPQ32 PGUM. Eastern Micronesia... Tropical Storm Champi continues to move away from the region, which will allow showers to become isolated at Pohnpei Saturday night. Kosrae will mainly see isolated showers as well through the weekend, before increasing next week. However, at Majuro, the monsoon trough is lingering just to the north, with a another tropical circulation east of the Date Line poised to move into the region early next week. This will keep scattered showers going through the forecast period there. As Champi moves away, winds and seas will slowly decrease. Seas will return to the 4 to 6 foot range at Pohnpei and Kosrae, remaining at these values for Majuro. Western Micronesia... The main forecast challenges were maximum wind gusts at Chuuk, and swell direction and height for Yap and Palau as current TS Champi passes north of there. For now, kept wind gusts to 30 knots at Chuuk but mentioned a few higher gusts could occur, but with some uncertainty as to when during the next 24 hours Champi begins its RI (Rapid Intensification) cycle. Therefore a special weather statement remains in place along with a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas. will be elevated Then at Yap, focus was placed on trying to refine swell heights and directions, while introducing them at Palau Tuesday. Otherwise, look for isolated shower coverage at Palau and Yap to continue, becoming isolated at Chuuk by the end of the weekend. Gentle to fresh winds are expected at Chuuk, decreasing as we head into next week, while increasing at Yap during the same time. Palau will remain in the light to gentle range. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for GUZ001. Typhoon Warning for GUZ001. Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM ChST Monday for GUZ001. High Surf Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM ChST Monday for GUZ001. MP...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MPZ001>003. Typhoon Warning for MPZ001. Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM ChST Monday for MPZ001>003. High Surf Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM ChST Monday for MPZ001>003. Tropical Storm Warning for MPZ002-003. Typhoon Watch for MPZ002-003. Marianas Waters...Typhoon Warning for PMZ151-152. Tropical Storm Warning for PMZ153-154. Typhoon Watch for PMZ153-154. && $$ Update: Kleeschulte Tropical Update: Stanko East and West Micronesia Update: Bowsher Marianas Update: Ogle Marianas: Kleeschulte East/West Micronesia: Doll Tropical: Montvila/Mesa DSS: Mesa  378 FXHW60 PHFO 170132 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 332 PM HST Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to breezy trades will gradually strengthen through early next week, then weaken over the latter half. Brief pulses of enhanced showers will roll through on the trades during this time period, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas in the overnight to early morning hours. && .DISCUSSION... Radar and satellite imagery show isolated to scattered showers moving into mainly windward and mauka areas of the state this afternoon, with shower coverage increasing over the eastern half of the state as a plume of deeper moisture moves in on the weakly convergent trade wind flow. This uptick in windward shower activity will work its way up the island chain and persist into the evening hours before drier air fills in on Saturday. Surface high pressure to the north will build through the weekend and strengthen the trade wind flow to breezy levels through early next week. Additional batches of increased moisture will continue to filter in on the trades over the next several days and bring brief upticks in windward and mauka shower activity, particularly during the overnight to early morning hours. Overall, these showers may produce brief moderate downpours at times, but they will move through rather quickly, so flooding is not expected to be an issue. Both aloft and at the surface, broad and weak troughing will gradually develop over the Central Pacific by midweek, weakening the pressure gradient and therefore decreasing the trade wind speeds. Otherwise, periodic showers will continue to filter into windward and mauka areas on the weakening trade wind flow. By next weekend, models are hinting at more substantial instability developing aloft and a larger area of deep tropical moisture being drawn up from the southeast, possibly leading to the potential for widespread heavy showers. However, the window with the greatest potential for any impacts is beyond the forecast period and with the model discrepancies that far out, forecast confidence is on the lower side for that period. && .AVIATION... Gusty trade winds will continue today into tomorrow. Shower coverage will increase from east to west during the next 24 hours, initially favoring windward portions of the Big Island and Maui, then spreading toward Oahu and Kauai tonight into tomorrow. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility are expected in passing showers, with VFR conditions prevailing between showers. AIRMET Sierra may be needed tonight as increasing shower coverage may bring renewed mountain obscuration. AIRMET Tango remains for moderate low level turbulence downwind of island terrain. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure far north of the islands will strengthen as it drifts eastward through Saturday. Reinforcing high pressure will build far north of Hawaii on Sunday and will settle far northeast of the islands through early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail during this time, and the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui may need to be expanded to additional waters this weekend. Trades are expected to ease slightly by Wednesday. A medium-period north-northwest swell will peak overnight, producing north shore surf around seasonal average. This swell has been slow to arrive today, with measurements at NOAA buoy 51001 recently coming in at 5 to 6 feet at 11 to 12 seconds. This swell will slowly decline and shift more northerly during weekend as a smaller overlapping northwest swell moves through the area. Both swells will lower on Monday and fade on Tuesday. Another small northwest swell is possible next Thursday or Friday. Long period south swell will peak through this evening, producing south shore surf slightly above seasonal average. This swell will gradually decline this weekend, and surf along south- facing shores will below average through the coming work week. Surf along east-facing shores will gradually increase over the next couple of days as trade winds strengthen over the region. In addition, expect some wrapping north-northwest swell to reach exposed areas through at least Saturday. Rough trade wind swell will produce east shore surf above seasonal average Sunday through Tuesday, followed by a decline Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Surface high pressure far north of the islands will produce moderate to breezy trade winds for the next few days, with gradual strengthening expected through early next week. Between batches of showers rolling through on the trades, RH levels may approach critical fire threshold ranges, particularly Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, RH levels should help to maintain low to moderate fire weather concerns. Inversion heights should increase to around 10,000 feet through tonight as the current batch of deeper moisture rolls through, then drop to 5,000 to 7,000 feet on Saturday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel. && $$ DISCUSSION...Farris AVIATION...PECHACEK MARINE...Wroe FIRE WEATHER...Farris  427 FXUS65 KRIW 170133 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 733 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Skies will remain mostly clear overnight, with some high clouds skirting northwest WY overnight, and increasing over northern WY Saturday morning. Temperatures Saturday morning will again generally dip into the 20s and 30s across western and central WY. - High pressure over the central Rockies will keep skies mostly clear to partly cloudy for the weekend, with no precipitation expected. Temperatures will remain on the warm side, reaching the upper 50s west of the divide, and the 60s to lower 70s east of the divide. Saturday will see breezy and gusty winds from southwest/southern WY into central and north-central WY. - Clouds increase from the southwest on Monday, with rain chances (20-30%) across western WY starting Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday. Precipitation chances increase (30-50%) across much of western and central WY Thursday into Friday, with some snow possible in the NW WY mountains Friday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1231 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 No major changes to the forecast with this update. Seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures continue through the week, with no precipitation expected until at least Tuesday (across far western Wyoming). Saturday looks to be the warmest day for the next week, with highs in the 60s. Around Buffalo, temperatures have an 80 percent chance to exceed 75 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High pressure will remain the dominant feature this weekend, deflecting weather systems into southern Canada. Temperatures today will recover back into the 50s after starting in the 20s across the state. The ridge will bring even warmer temperatures on Saturday, with highs west of the divide around 60 degrees, while areas across central WY reach well into the 60s. Gusty southwest winds reaching 30 mph will sweep from Rock Springs northeast across Casper into northeast Wyoming. These warmer winds will bring even warmer temperatures across Johnson County Saturday, with highs well into the 70s. A weak cold front is dragged southward late Saturday from a weather system crossing southern Canada. This will bring light north winds back into central WY, bringing high temps back down into the 50s for Sunday. The next weather impact into next week depends on placement of the trough dropping down the West Coast. Moisture wrapping around the bottom of the trough may feed into southwest WY for the latter half of the week, bringing a chance for showers. Currently models have been leaning away from any significant rainfall, and have been delaying the initial arrival of the moisture farther into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 342 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 There is high confidence in dry and VFR flight conditions the entire TAF period. Apart from a few high clouds after 18Z Saturday, anticipate clear skies. Winds are forecast to be 11kts or less at most terminals through 00Z Sunday. The exception terminals are KCPR where gusty 20kt to 30kt winds are expected the entire TAF period and KCOD where gusty winds move in after 17Z Saturday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Wittmann DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Gerhardt  573 FXUS61 KPHI 170138 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 938 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch discontinued. Increasing potential for unsettled conditions and hazardous marine impacts from a developing nor'easter beginning Sunday and continuing into next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A front will continue to slowly move southeast of the area overnight. Showers will taper across Delmarva and New Jersey late tonight. 2. Frost and freeze conditions are expected for Saturday night into Sunday morning with another round of frost possible for Sunday night into Monday morning. 3. Uncertainty persists regarding a nor'easter developing off the coast of the southern Mid-Atlantic that may cause unsettled conditions and hazardous marine impacts early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A front will continue to slowly move southeast of the area overnight. Showers will taper across Delmarva and New Jersey late tonight. The remaining part of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. Low pressure passing north of northern New England will continue to push a potent cold front offshore for the early overnight period. The last of the thunderstorms have moved off the NJ/DE shore, but more scattered showers remain behind the front will linger across southern NJ and Delmarva into the overnight period. Likely POPS will remain S/E and chance pops for the Delaware Valley areas. Additional rains will be rather light, perhaps 0.1 to 0.2 inches. A tight pressure gradient then develops over the area overnight through Saturday as broad high pressure centered over the Southern Plains begins to build east. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop tonight and will continue through Saturday, with winds ranging from 15 to 25 mph with 30 to 40 mph gusts. Much cooler on Saturday with highs in the 50s and surface dew points falling towards the 30s. Some showers may linger tonight into Saturday morning especially across southern NJ and Delmarva as the front slows for a time, but they should clear out finally later in the day if not before. KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost and freeze conditions are expected for Saturday night into Sunday morning with another round of frost possible for Sunday night into Monday morning. The coldest airmass of the season thus far will usher into the region this weekend. With high pressure settling in from the north, skies will become clear by Saturday evening. While it will be a bit breezy early in the night, the pressure gradient is expected to lessen overnight, especially for locales north and west of I-95. In these areas, anticipate a period of good radiational cooling conditions where low temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. For this reason, have issued a Freeze Watch for potions of eastern PA and northern NJ for Saturday night. Further south and east, it appears that winds will remain elevated enough to preclude frost formation where temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s. At this time, no frost/freeze headlines are expected along the I-95 corridor and points south and east. High temperatures on Sunday will then only be in the 50s for the entire region despite mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will then begin to slowly moderate Sunday night into early next week. Another round of frost/freeze conditions will be possible for Sunday night into Monday morning, mainly confined to the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and northern New Jersey. Lows are expected to be several degrees warmer than Saturday night mainly in the mid to upper 30s, so this would favor frost over freeze where the growing season remains active. Too early to determine any headlines at this time, but will be considered in future updates.KEY MESSAGE 3...Uncertainty persists regarding a nor'easter developing off the coast of the southern Mid-Atlantic that may cause unsettled conditions and hazardous marine impacts early next week. The base of a deep trough axis will pass through the region later Saturday. As it does so, the trough axis will then cutoff into an upper level low which will meander over the southern Mid-Atlantic coast into early next week. At the same time, strong and expansive high pressure will be building over the Ohio Valley. While confidence is increasing regarding a nor'easter developing off the North Carolina coast later this weekend, it must be said there remains a vast amount of uncertainty with regards to potential impacts to our region into next week. Considerable differences amongst global/ensemble guidance exists with regards to just how close/long this system will get/last in our region. Some guidance keeps the system suppressed further south due to the strong high to the north, which will then minimize potential impacts to our area. However, if the system is further north (and this has been the trend over the past 24 hours), then more in the way of impacts and unsettled weather may occur. At the very least, it is expected that gusty northeast breezes will occur for the majority of the week with the highest gusts located near coastal areas. While it isn't expected to be a washout by any means, there is at least a chance of showers each day for areas south and east of I-95 beginning as early as Sunday night through the end of the week. More details to come over the weekend once forecast guidance comes into better agreement. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...TSTMs have ended for the terminals, but there will still be some showers lingering especially southern terminals. NW winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt. High/medium confidence. Saturday...Mainly VFR, though showers and perhaps some MVFR cigs may linger southern terminals in the morning. NW winds 15 to 25 kt with 25 to 35 kt gusts. High confidence. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather expected. Sunday night...Primarily VFR. A slight chance of rain showers possible near KACY and KMIV. Monday through Wednesday...Primarily VFR, although sub-VFR conditions possible at times. A chance of rain showers each day for all terminals except KRDG and KABE. Gusty northeast winds up to 20 kt possible with gusts up to 30 kt possible near KMIV and KACY. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters. The front moving across the waters will continue to produce showers overnight and a few TSTMs are possible until around midnight. Gusty winds possible with ant TSTM. Winds turn north-northwest tonight and increase to 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts that will last through Saturday. 30 to 40 kt gusts are likely Saturday. Upgraded Gale Watch to Gale Warning Saturday. Outlook... Saturday night...Gale Warnings are in effect for offshore waters and Atlantic coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island. Small Craft Advisory conditions likely for Atlantic coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Great Egg Inlet and Delaware Bay. North-northeast winds of 20-30 kt with gusts of 30-40 kt. Seas of 6-12 feet. Sunday...A mix of Gales and Small Craft conditions are likely to continue on all waters. Northeast winds of 15-30 kt with gusts of 30- 40 kt possible. Seas of 6-12 feet. Sunday night through Wednesday...Due to developing nor'easter off the southern Mid-Atlantic coast, a prolonged period of gale force conditions are expected to develop/continue across all marine waters. It should be noted that forecast confidence is low though. Northeast winds of 25-35 kt with gusts of 35-45 kt are possible. Seas of 10-16+ feet possible. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105. NJ...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NJZ001-007>009. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>452. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ453>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ480>483-485. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/DeSilva/MPS/RCM AVIATION...Cooper/DeSilva/MPS/RCM MARINE...Cooper/DeSilva/MPS/RCM