929 

ACUS02 KWNS 200554

SWODY2

SPC AC 200552



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1252 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026



Valid 211200Z - 221200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS

OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE FAR

WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and

southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.



...Synopsis...

A mid-level shortwave will translate eastward across the central

Rockies on D2/Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will move

through the northern High Plains while a secondary stationary front

remains in place from the Carolinas through the Tennessee Valley

into Ozark Plateau. A few strong to severe storms capable of large

hail and damaging wind will be possible near the front range in

Colorado.



...Central and Southern High Plains...

Upslope flow into eastern Colorado will combine with modest

upper-level forcing for ascent to allow for isolated to widely

scattered thunderstorms near the high terrain. Steep lapse rates,

MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear around 30-35 kts from

south of I-70 will allow for a few better organized cells capable of

large hail and damaging wind. This threat will decrease with eastern

extent into KS/OK where strengthening MLCIN will temper the severe

threat downstream.



Additional areas of scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible

across southern Oklahoma into northern/central Texas and across far

western Texas in the afternoon. Generally weak deep layer shear

should limit the severe risk. A few instances of gusty winds and

small hail will be possible.



...Elsewhere...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the northern

Rockies into the northern Plains near the upper-low. Weak moisture

and limited instability will likely keep storms sub-severe. Widely

scattered thunderstorms will also be likely south of the stationary

front from the Carolinas into the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys.

While marginal instability will be in place, weak deep layer shear

profiles will lead to more disorganized storms and limit the overall

severe threat.



..Thornton.. 05/20/2026



$$