171 

ACUS02 KWNS 091726

SWODY2

SPC AC 091724



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1224 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026



Valid 101200Z - 111200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...



...SUMMARY...

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and

severe wind gusts appear possible over the central and southern High

Plains and eastern Kansas into Missouri Friday afternoon and

evening. More sporadic occurrences of damaging winds and large hail

are possible from the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the

Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the western Florida Peninsula, and

parts of Minnesota and eastern South Dakota.



...Synopsis...



Considerable amplification of a mid/upper-level ridge is forecast

from the lower CO Valley into central Canada on Friday into Friday

night. To the immediate east of the building heights, the 12Z models

indicate multiple perturbations (some of convective origin)

progressing through the central Plains into the mid MS, lower OH,

and TN Valleys. At the surface, the primary front, the position of

which may be modified by convective outflow, is expected to stretch

from the southern High Plains through the mid MS Valley into the OH

Valley and Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon.





...Central and Southern High Plains...



Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the CO

Front Range and Raton Mesa, where moist upslope flow will coincide

with an EML to yield moderate instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500

J/kg. Despite only modest westerly flow in the mid levels, an

easterly low-level wind component will augment deep-layer shear,

allowing for some supercell structures with a risk for isolated

large hail. 12Z CAM guidance is in relatively good agreement in

depicting the upscale growth of the initial storms into a bowing,

linear mode with an associated severe wind risk spreading east into

far southwest KS and the OK and TX Panhandles.





...Eastern KS into the mid MS Valley...



The eastern extension of the EML will overlie a moist boundary layer

with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s to yield moderate to

strong instability by afternoon with MLCAPE as high as 2500-3500+

J/kg. Convergence along the synoptic front and/or residual outflow

boundaries will be aided by forcing for ascent attendant to a

remnant MCV to support scattered afternoon storms. Some enhancement

of the mid-level wind field is forecast in the vicinity of the

MCV/shortwave trough, which will locally augment vertical shear,

supporting organized storm modes with an attendant risk for large

hail and severe wind gusts.





...Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast...



An area of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday

near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers. That activity may

weaken or dissipate by mid morning over the TN Valley; however, a

remnant MCV may support a reinvigoration of storms by afternoon from

the TN Valley through the southern Appalachians toward Carolina

coast. The presence of a moist and moderately unstable air mass,

featuring steep low-level lapse rates, will support sporadic

damaging wind occurrences, especially with any storm clusters.





...Mid-Atlantic...



Some mid-level flow enhancement is forecast Friday afternoon in

association with a shortwave trough moving through the region. That

feature, coupled with the synoptic front in the area, will support

scattered afternoon storms amidst a moist and at least modestly

unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen to

30-35 kt, which may contribute to some storm organization with the

primary hazard being isolated damaging wind gusts.





...Western Florida Peninsula...



A number of the 12Z CAMs suggest some degree of cold pool

organization with afternoon thunderstorms moving west/northwest

through the area. The presence of moderate to strong instability

will aid in the water loading of downdrafts with an associated risk

for locally damaging wind gusts.





...MN and Eastern SD...



Despite building mid-level heights, there is a fairly consistent

model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm development along a

front during the afternoon. The combination of moderate to strong

instability and a vertically veering wind profile with around 30 kt

of deep-layer shear will favor some storm organization with the

potential for a few large hail occurrences.



..Mead.. 07/09/2026



$$