034 

ACUS03 KWNS 090716

SWODY3

SPC AC 090715



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0215 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS

THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Strong thunderstorms with potential to produce a few damaging wind

gusts are possible in a corridor across the south central Great

Plains through Mid South and Tennessee Valley Saturday afternoon and

evening.



...Discussion...

Large-scale mid/upper ridging is forecast to continue building

across much of interior North America through this period, with the

strong core of the ridge expanding northeastward and encompassing

much of the Four Corners states through middle Missouri Valley by

late Saturday night.  While one notable short wave trough is forced

inland across the British Columbia coast, increasingly split

downstream troughing is forecast to progress toward the northwestern

Atlantic, and offshore of the north Atlantic Seaboard.  A lingering

mid-level shear axis, trailing to the west of the latter troughing,

may slowly continue to shift south of the Mid Atlantic and lower

Ohio/Missouri Valleys through the period.



In general, the risk for organized severe convection appears low

Saturday through Saturday night, or at least dependent on mesoscale

perturbations with low predictability at this time frame.  However,

there does appear a general consensus among model output that

lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may remain steep enough, above a

seasonably moist boundary layer, to contribute to moderate CAPE (on

the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg) in advance of the southward advancing

shear axis.  By late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, this

may focus strong thunderstorm development in a corridor from the

south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley.  Some of this

activity may evolve into small clusters with potential to produce

strong to locally severe surface gusts.



..Kerr.. 07/09/2026



$$