691 ACUS11 KWNS 181907 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181907 KSZ000-NEZ000-182030- Mesoscale Discussion 0773 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...North-central Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 222... Valid 181907Z - 182030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 222 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat is increasing in parts of north-central Kansas. A strong to intense tornado is possible in this environment. DISCUSSION...Several discrete storms have developed in the vicinity of Concordia, KS. The strongest storm so far is in Lincoln County, KS and has shown signs of increasing inflow and mesocyclone strength. This storm will pose the greatest tornado threat as it will most likely have more residence time in the most favorable environment. Given the location of these storms within the modified outflow with backed surface winds and an expected increase in the 850 mb winds through the afternoon, this activity will be the primary focus for tornado potential over the next 2-3 hours. Surface winds near Great Bend/Russell have trended more westerly, but farther north, where these storms are ongoing, the winds remain more northeasterly/northerly. This at least suggests that the linear forcing will remain weak in the short term and keep discrete modes deeper into the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38819834 39129822 39509795 39889755 40009728 40069686 39959654 39819645 39629650 39149707 38899765 38769810 38819834 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN  412 ACUS11 KWNS 181917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181916 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-182045- Mesoscale Discussion 0774 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...Southern and Central Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221... Valid 181916Z - 182045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221 continues. SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat for WW 221 continues. Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging straight-line winds are ongoing and expected to persist. DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging straight-line winds are ongoing across WW 221. Several measured gusts of 60-75 MPH have been observed in the wake of the apex of the bowing line segment. A localized corridor along the leading edge and apex of the bowing segment exists where the wind damage threat is maximized, with gusts to 80 MPH possible. These storms are expected to persist and maintain their intensity with eastward extend as they cross central and southern Michigan. ..Halbert.. 05/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41698533 42398515 42698526 43028556 43368565 43728465 43698355 43408293 42788271 42298279 41838301 41728355 41698533 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  081 ACUS11 KWNS 181932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181931 KSZ000-OKZ000-182130- Mesoscale Discussion 0775 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma into Southwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181931Z - 182130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible this afternoon. The degree of tornado/very-large hail threat will depend on a discrete storm mode. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus are increasing in the vicinity of Dodge City as convergence along a cold front has increased over the past couple of hours. With 40+ kt of effective shear and observed 7.9 C/km mid-level lapse rate on the 18Z DDC sounding, initial supercells capable of very-large hail and severe winds can be expected. Tornadoes will also be possible where discrete modes can be maintained longer given the low-level shear. However, the linear forcing from the cold front may be enough to encourage a quick transition to a more linear mode. Regardless of the exact evolution, all severe hazards will be possible. A watch will likely be needed this afternoon. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36499920 36489977 36590009 36800021 37240015 37729977 37999955 38189903 38149863 37889833 37319824 36819839 36499920 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN