795 ACUS11 KWNS 190630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190630 TXZ000-190830- Mesoscale Discussion 0783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas affected...South Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190630Z - 190830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A bowing complex of thunderstorms continues to move east across far south Texas. The environment ahead of the cluster remains extremely unstable. Strong winds and isolated hail may be possible with the core of these storms. A watch is currently not expected. DISCUSSION...An HP multicell cluster across northern Mexico has evolved into a small bowing cluster as it moves east across south Texas this morning. This complex appears to be aided by modest deep layer ascent in associated with a 70-knot 300-mb jet streak moving northeast from the base of the western North American longwave trough. The 20260519/00Z Corpus Christi sounding observed an extremely unstable airmass, with MUCAPE in excess of 4500 J/kg. Morning objectively analyzed fields suggest MUCAPE remains in excess of 4000 J/kg. The observed sounding also sampled a very moist airmass, with precipitable water in excess of 2". Thus, heavy, water-laden downdrafts will support the possibility of damaging winds with this complex, despite the observed weak low-level lapse rates. Given the degree of instability, isolated hail cannot be ruled out. The limited spatial extent of this bowing complex (one storm only a couple of counties wide, rapidly approaching the coast) should preclude the need for a watch, although conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Marsh/Gleason.. 05/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 27149953 27419910 27829894 28109904 28319917 28569850 28529780 28469715 28329681 28159665 27909659 27579668 27289695 27119728 27059791 27149953 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN