886 ACUS11 KWNS 192315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192315 NYZ000-200045- Mesoscale Discussion 0796 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas affected...portions of southwest New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192315Z - 200045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may occur with an approaching small bow echo if it can maintain intensity and reach the Lake Erie shoreline before boundary layer stabilization sets in. Should this scenario occur, a WW issuance would be needed. DISCUSSION...A small bow echo signature, embedded within a broader persistent elongated convective system, continues to rapidly track eastward toward Buffalo, NY, where the boundary layer remains unstable. Western NY is under the influence of a 500 mb wind maximum, which is grazing the area from the north, resulting in 35-40 kts of effective bulk shear, which is oriented roughly normal to the elongated MCS. Given mid 80s F surface temperatures and 7+ C/km boundary layer lapse rates, combined with the aforementioned vertical wind shear, it is plausible that this bow echo signature may cross the U.S. border near Buffalo in the next hour or so. Severe gusts are possible, so a WW issuance may be possible if short-term trends suggest that the bow echo will maintain intensity. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43277913 43367881 43397832 43387784 43277747 43047722 42787721 42437752 42307796 42367862 42497911 42647910 42847905 42977907 43277913 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  269 ACUS11 KWNS 192339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192339 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-200045- Mesoscale Discussion 0797 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern and southern Ohio...far southeastern Indiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...231... Valid 192339Z - 200045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230, 231 continues. SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible over the next couple of hours before boundary layer stabilization occurs. Local WW extensions may be needed if storms can maintain their intensity. DISCUSSION...A persistent elongated MCS continues to track eastward across the eastern OH Valley with a history of widely scattered damaging gusts. Surface temperatures range from the low to mid 80s F ahead of the line, accompanied by 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, suggesting that the boundary layer is still unstable and mixed enough to support a few additional damaging gusts. However, this threat should gradually subside with the loss of daytime heating. Still, WW extensions may be needed if storms persist for more than a couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND... LAT...LON 38738717 39338523 40098396 41368243 41628156 41528086 41268073 40768113 39918232 39128295 38808353 38648420 38608539 38648685 38738717 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH