527 

ACUS11 KWNS 072324

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 072324 

MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080130-



Mesoscale Discussion 1536

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0624 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026



Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota into northeast South Dakota

and far west-central Minnesota



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...



Valid 072324Z - 080130Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469

continues.



SUMMARY...Intensifying elevated convection along the Dakota border

will likely pose some threat for large hail and perhaps severe winds

through the late evening. Expansion of WW 469 into northeast South

Dakota or a new watch may be warranted, though it is uncertain how

far north the threat will manifest into North Dakota.



DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, elevated thunderstorms have

developed and steadily intensified along and north of the ND/SD

border. This activity is maturing within a MUCAPE gradient where

buoyancy values range from around 500 J/kg across southeast ND to

around 2000 J/kg further south into SD in the vicinity of a

stationary/warm front. The passage of a mid-level jet to the north

is supporting elongated hodographs featuring effective bulk shear

values on the order of 40-50 knots. This kinematic environment will

favor storm organization, possibly into supercells, though storm

propagation along the zone of initiation and the buoyancy gradient

will likely favor clustering with time - especially after 00 UTC

when thunderstorm coverage should increase with the emergence of the

low-level jet. 



Regardless, the convective environment will likely support a severe

hail threat and possibly a severe wind threat given relatively moist

low-level conditions downstream, especially across northeast SD

within the more unstable air mass where dewpoints are largely in the

60s. This will likely warrant northeastward expansion of WW 469 into

northeast SD, or a new watch.



..Moore.. 07/07/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...



LAT...LON   46189605 45799607 45559626 45349663 45249702 45219813

            45239924 45270018 45360087 45480104 45870091 46190044

            46459997 46649928 46579643 46449616 46189605 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN