782 ACUS11 KWNS 080108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080108 SDZ000-NDZ000-WYZ000-080315- Mesoscale Discussion 1537 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0808 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026 Areas affected...Far northeast Wyoming into South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469... Valid 080108Z - 080315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe hail and wind continues across far northeast WY into southwest to northeast South Dakota. A gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage is possible in the next few hours across central to northeast South Dakota. DISCUSSION...Although intense convection has been rather sparse across much of WW 469 over the past couple of hours, a handful of severe hail and wind reports have been noted across northeast WY, and MRMS MESH estimates show a few cores capable of producing severe hail across north-central SD. While convection has been fairly isolated thus far, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in thunderstorm activity is probable in the coming hours. This will be driven by a strengthening nocturnal jet that will augment isentropic ascent atop a boundary draped across the state, and will likely lift most-unstable parcels through residual inhibition to their LFCs (as suggested by the 00z ABR RAOB). Convection along and north of the boundary will likely pose a large hail threat given the strong deep-layer wind shear, but some clustering and propagation along the boundary is possible and may pose a more robust threat for severe wind. Further west, high-based convection across northeast WY will likely continue to propagate eastward. Further intensification of this activity appears possible as it spreads east and south of the Black Hills and into a slightly cooler, but more buoyant air mass where effective bulk shear values are near 40 knots (per the 00z UNR RAOB). ..Moore.. 07/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43050363 43420417 43730444 44030468 44370468 44590430 44640342 44870156 45230087 45480046 45670000 45869918 45919858 45959776 45849736 45629722 45369709 45069727 44779777 44439852 43829957 43470042 43170161 43080236 43020300 43050363 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN  520 ACUS11 KWNS 080154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080154 MNZ000-SDZ000-080400- Mesoscale Discussion 1538 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0854 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026 Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota into central Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469... Valid 080154Z - 080400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will likely spread east into central Minnesota over the next few hours. The downstream environment should support a continued severe wind threat. Downstream watch issuance probably be needed to address this concern. DISCUSSION...An elevated thunderstorm cluster migrating southeast across the Aberdeen, SD region has begun producing severe winds at the surface between 60-70 mph. This, coupled with a recent uptick in lightning counts and cooling cloud-top temperatures, strongly suggests that the cluster is utilizing the higher buoyancy in place across the region. Based on current storm tracks and latest mesoanalyses, this storm will continue to push into a regional buoyancy maximum, so further intensification appears probable over the next hour or so. Additionally, surface observations show a warm frontal zone draped from far northeast SD into central MN that is well aligned with the deep-layer bulk shear vector. This may act as a foci for storm propagation through the next few hours where a greater chance for severe wind could emerge. New storm development south of the ongoing cluster also appears possible over the next 1-2 hours as an outflow boundary from the cluster collides with a meandering boundary to the south. Any storms developing within this zone will likely also pose a threat for severe hail and eventually severe wind if/when upscale clustering occurs. Regardless, downstream watch issuance into central MN appears probable in the coming hours as storms continue to spread east. ..Moore.. 07/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 44049544 44259651 44549674 44919683 45209681 45549660 45709646 45869611 45729433 45509398 45139385 44829389 44489409 44249436 44079486 44049544 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN