904 ACUS11 KWNS 082012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082012 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-082215- Mesoscale Discussion 1545 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nebraska into central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 082012Z - 082215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds will be the primary risk with storms that develop later this afternoon. A watch is possible depending on convective trends in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Water vapor/visible imagery shows a zone of ascent overspreading the mid Missouri Valley region. Though mid-level cloud cover has had some impact on surface heating south of the surface cold front, temperatures still have warmed into the mid 80s to low 90s F. Based on the observed 18Z OAX sounding, it likely will take surface 90+ F surface temperatures to fully remove MLCIN. As the cold front slowly sags southward into the evening and the low-level jet increases, widely scattered to scattered storm development will become more likely. Whether storms can develop earlier than most CAM guidance suggests remains a question. There is at least some potential for mid-level convection to root near the surface and MLCIN erodes. Storms that do form will pose some risk of large hail and severe winds given observed steep mid-level lapse rates and moderately steep low-level lapse rates. Shear will be somewhat marginal, especially with southwest extent. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for a possible watch by late afternoon. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 40839666 40729752 40899818 41229848 41589830 42029753 43049527 43129452 42889417 42249414 41499462 40929632 40839666 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN  334 ACUS11 KWNS 082044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082044 AZZ000-082245- Mesoscale Discussion 1546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern/southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082044Z - 082245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon, with strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts possible. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate temperatures have warmed into the low-100s across portions of the Southwest as of 2045 UTC. As continued insolation results in convective temperatures being breached, thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the next 1-2 hours amid a plume of modestly enhanced mid-level moisture. This moisture is supporting weak buoyancy (200-500 J/kg MLCAPE) atop a deep, well-mixed boundary layer (LCLs around 3.5-4.0 km AGL). These inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support efficient evaporative cooling in downdrafts and the potential for strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts. Weak deep-layer flow (less than 15 kts sampled by the EMX VWP) and meager effective shear are expected to largely temper the overall severe risk. Thus, watch issuance is not expected. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31220961 31820954 32670942 33180948 33570977 33711010 33641063 33361142 33101180 32441209 31681232 31601229 31241107 31220961 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH