353 

ACUS11 KWNS 090215

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 090215 

IAZ000-090415-



Mesoscale Discussion 1552

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0915 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026



Areas affected...Central to northeast Iowa



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471...473...



Valid 090215Z - 090415Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471, 473

continues.



SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail will likely continue across

portions of central to northeast Iowa for the next couple of hours.

Downstream watch issuance is not expected.



DISCUSSION...Over the past couple of hours, the cold pool associated

with a weak convective band has continued to expand

south/southwestward. New updrafts developing on the southern and

western flanks of the cold pool have been quickly displaced into the

cooler/more stable air due to the westerly mid-level flow regime.

However, a few of these updrafts have shown periodic upticks in

intensification up to near severe limits based on MRMS MESH and

vertical ice data. Further southwest, new convective development is

also noted along the outflow of an upstream decaying thunderstorm

band. 



In general, this activity resides within an axis of relatively

higher MUCAPE and continues to experience the influence of weak

frontal ascent (plus more localized ascent along the outflows) and

broad-scale lift from a low-amplitude upper wave traversing the

Plains. Because of these factors, continued updraft development

appears possible over the next 1-2 hours and may continue to pose a

threat for sporadic large hail and perhaps isolated strong/severe

wind gusts.



Beyond the next couple of hours, continued nocturnal stabilization

and diminishing buoyancy with southeastward extent will likely act

to modulate updraft intensities. The net result should be a gradual

decline in thunderstorm intensity and further reduction of the

severe threat. While some severe threat may linger in the near-term

on the periphery of WW 471 and 473, downstream watch issuance is not

expected.



..Moore.. 07/09/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...



LAT...LON   42899251 42679183 42519161 42309136 42039134 41819145

            41689172 41639206 41659235 41709265 41859295 42049321

            42199349 42399396 42689408 42919398 43049362 43069317

            42899251 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN