420 ACUS11 KWNS 090308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090308 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-090515- Mesoscale Discussion 1553 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...southwest Iowa...and northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473... Valid 090308Z - 090515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue into the overnight hours across portions of southeast Nebraska and into northeast Kansas. Isolated large hail and severe winds will be possible, but this threat should be sufficiently limited to preclude downstream watch issuance. DISCUSSION...An organized convective band with an evident book-end vortex continues to migrate eastward across the Missouri River into western IA. Although only sub-severe winds were observed with this line as it impacted Omaha, NE, KOAX velocity imagery continues to show pockets of strong/severe winds within the line. However, this band is beginning to exit the buoyancy gradient and will begin encountering a more stable air mass as it migrates further into IA. This should promote steady weakening over the next hour or so. Further southwest, new updrafts are noted developing just behind an outflow boundary surging south towards the KS/NE border. Although the downstream environment is conditionally favorable for organized convection (MLCAPE remains near 1500 J/kg with around 40 knots of effective bulk shear), it appears that convection will continue to be displaced behind the leading edge of the outflow, which will likely promote additional southward acceleration as the cold pool is convectively reinforced. Nonetheless, a few stronger convective cores may emerge given remaining MUCAPE downstream (based on the 00 UTC TOP RAOB) and recent MRMS VIL trends. This could pose a threat for sporadic large hail and isolated bursts of severe winds into northeast KS. This scenario appears to be supported by recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensemble guidance which depicts a weak, but non-zero, signal for strong updraft helicity and severe winds. Given the limited confidence in a more widespread/robust severe threat, downstream watch issuance is currently not expected. ..Moore.. 07/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39849878 40129895 40329891 40529862 40579811 40659769 40879663 41139607 41439584 41689563 41819547 41809516 41679485 41469461 41179453 40729486 40289516 39199591 38949622 38769672 38749721 38839761 38979793 39849878 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN