925 ACUS11 KWNS 092045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092045 NMZ000-AZZ000-092245- Mesoscale Discussion 1559 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092045Z - 092245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the White Mountains will progress southwestward through this evening with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts ongoing thunderstorm development across the White Mountains of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico amid a plume of enhanced mid-level moisture along the eastern periphery of upper-level ridging. Expectation is for these storms to gradually evolve south-southwestward off of the high terrain through this evening. As this evolution occurs, weak buoyancy (200-500 J/kg MLCAPE) based atop a deep, well-mixed boundary layer (LCLs of 3.0-3.5 km AGL) will support a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts. Weak effective shear (less than 20 kts) and deep-layer flow (less than 15-20 kts sampled by the EMX VWP) will largely limit storm organization and preclude a more widespread severe risk. Thus, watch issuance is not expected. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31180890 31190823 31320813 32010813 32590816 32910825 33230844 33430872 33590908 33650923 33660951 33500999 33231056 32651117 31851179 31521201 31441197 31191111 31151093 31180890 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH  184 ACUS11 KWNS 092053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092053 MOZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-092300- Mesoscale Discussion 1560 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri and northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092053Z - 092300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A watch is possible late this afternoon as storms form along an outflow/differential heating boundary. Shear is sufficient for marginal supercells capable of all hazards. DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery continues in the wake of an MCV that moved through Missouri earlier today. Temperatures to the southwest of the outflow/differential heating boundary have risen in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Warm advection within this zone as well as near a weak surface low in southeast Kansas will eventually initiate a few thunderstorms. CAM guidance has generally suggested this will occur by 5 PM CDT or thereabouts. Enhanced shear from the MCV (30-35 kt effective shear) will promote marginal supercell structures. The primary hazards will be isolated large hail and damaging winds. Low-level flow is strong enough (see the KSGF VAD) to support rotating storms. Should supercells maintain intensity, a risk for a tornado could develop near the surface boundary. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LZK...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 35929168 36789335 37309414 38079561 38119567 38319563 38519485 38449350 37409164 36299095 35919162 35929168 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN