355 ACUS11 KWNS 220417 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220416 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-220545- Mesoscale Discussion 2079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Areas affected...Parts of northeast CO...southwest NE...western KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613... Valid 220416Z - 220545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will continue with an ongoing supercell. Trends are being monitored for any storm clustering with time. DISCUSSION...An ongoing supercell across northeast CO will continue to pose a short-term threat for localized hail and severe gusts as it moves south-southeastward. Recent objective mesoanalyses depict an 850-mb moisture axis extending southeast from ongoing convection into northwest KS, and recent VWPs from KGLD indicate a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet. These factors may allow for some increase in storm coverage and clustering (as depicted by some recent HRRR/RRFS runs), within a favorably unstable (MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) and sufficiently sheared environment. However, the current isolated nature of the ongoing threat and increasing MLCINH with time result in uncertainty regarding overnight severe potential downstream. Some increase in elevated storm coverage has recently been noted over far southwest NE, and if convection can continue to increase in coverage later tonight, then steep lapse rates above the surface and relatively large DCAPE could support modest cold pool generation and an increasing severe-wind threat, despite increasing near-surface stability. Local watch expansion and/or new watch issuance will be possible if trends support an increasing downstream severe threat overnight. ..Dean/Thompson.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41120338 40850226 40320117 39550048 38840033 38410047 38210148 39000283 39570339 40260368 41120338 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN  143 ACUS11 KWNS 220443 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220443 ILZ000-220615- Mesoscale Discussion 2080 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 610... Valid 220443Z - 220615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 610 continues. SUMMARY...A localized severe threat may continue into the early overnight hours. DISCUSSION...A persistent storm cluster is moving south-southeastward across central IL late this evening. While this cluster has struggled to maintain severe intensity, MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg and relatively enlarged low-level hodographs (with effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2) may continue to support modest storm organization and transient rotation into the early overnight hours. This could support potential for localized wind damage for as long as this cluster remains vigorous, though a gradual weakening trend is eventually expected with time. ..Dean.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 40099044 40368942 40608855 40488828 40128805 39738858 39568993 39819034 40099044 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN