994 ACUS11 KWNS 222301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222300 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-230030- Mesoscale Discussion 2093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...Portions of western/central PA...far northern WV...and western MD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614... Valid 222300Z - 230030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of locally damaging wind gusts continues in the near term, though the severe risk should gradually decrease into central Pennsylvania. Therefore, a downstream watch should not be needed. DISCUSSION...A strongly forced, north/south-oriented band of storms is tracking eastward across western PA, with additional pre-frontal cells evolving in the cooler air downstream. Given a well-established cold pool and around 30 kt of 0-6 km shear (per CCX VWP) oriented perpendicular to the gust front, the risk of locally damaging wind gusts will continue in the near term. However, the immediate downstream air mass is characterized by cooler surface temperatures/weaker buoyancy, which should tend to limit the severe risk with eastward extent into central PA this evening. Therefore, while a localized risk of strong/locally damaging wind gusts could persist slightly east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614, a downstream watch is not currently expected. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 39627968 40477943 41627892 41857858 41817800 41637758 41397743 40757751 40157776 39507815 39177882 39337961 39627968 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  447 ACUS11 KWNS 222334 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222333 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-230100- Mesoscale Discussion 2094 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Arkansas...southwest Tennessee...northern Mississippi and Alabama Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615... Valid 222333Z - 230100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615 continues. SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe storms continue over portions of WW615. Damaging winds remain possible with these storms. Some risk may continue into parts of northwestern AL this evening. DISCUSSION...As of 2330 UTC, regional radar showed several clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing across portions of WW615. The most intense of these clusters, located near the MS/TN border has produced recent measured severe gusts. This should continue across portions of southern TN and northern MS where moderate to large buoyancy and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear are present and supporting more organized multicell clusters. High PWATS (2+ inches) and clustering will promote stronger downdrafts capable of damaging/isolated severe gusts. The primary severe risk appears most likely along the southwestern flank of the leading cluster across north-central MS where stronger low-level convergence along the existing outflow may preferentially support maintenance of the ongoing storms/new development this evening. However, some severe risk is possible east of WW615 into parts of northwestern AL this evening. However, the environment farther east is cooler and somewhat drier with less overall buoyancy. Weaker vertical shear with southward extent also casts some uncertainty on longevity. Regardless, enough buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates likely exist to support an isolated damaging wind threat. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 35318939 35348856 35238754 34778728 34378730 33998745 33528765 33198802 32958832 32768902 32778913 32919006 33349101 34169239 34589310 34899320 35109096 35318939 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  636 ACUS11 KWNS 222337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222337 VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-230100- Mesoscale Discussion 2095 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...Portions of eastern KY...far western VA...and eastern TN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616... Valid 222337Z - 230100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail may spread east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616 this evening, though a downstream watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Along an eastward-moving cold front, two clusters of loosely organized thunderstorms in Middle TN and eastern KY are tracking east-southeastward toward the eastern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616 this evening. Around 30-40 kt of midlevel west-northwesterly flow (per JKL/OHX VWPs) oriented perpendicular to the front will aid in the maintenance of these storms for the next hour or so -- before reaching the higher terrain. This will especially be the case into eastern TN -- where lower/middle 80s temperatures and upper 60s dewpoints remain in place. As a result, the risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail may spread east of the watch. However, given the localized nature of the ongoing severe risk, a downstream watch is not expected. ..Weinman.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...OHX... LAT...LON 36108557 36278521 36698420 37368336 37718261 37788245 37728207 37498184 37088184 36478219 35828309 35298452 35308514 35518552 35808569 36108557 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN