559 ACUS11 KWNS 151959 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151959 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-152200- Mesoscale Discussion 2379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas affected...southeast Missouri...southern Illinois...southwest Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151959Z - 152200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few storms may develop later this afternoon from far southeast Missouri into southwest Indiana. Locally damaging gusts appear to be the main threat. DISCUSSION...A diffuse warm front continues to gradually mix northward across central IL into southwest IN, with dewpoints remaining in the 70s F. Just to the southwest, a low-level lapse rate plume extends from AR into southeast MO and toward the Lower OH Valley, with temperatures into the lower 90s F and dewpoints mixing down well into the 60s F. Within the warm advection zone, rain and few thunderstorms are now moving out of IL and toward central IN. This activity has locally cooled surface temperatures and may provide a relative focus for later development. Visible imagery does show substantial boundary layer CU from southeast MO into southern IL where CIN has been eroded, and a few cells could eventually develop there. 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, deep-layer shear approaching 40 kt, and a localized area of sufficient low-level SRH may yield a small supercell or two capable of strong gusts and a low-end chance of a brief tornado, assuming such cells survive into the cooler/greater SRH environment. ..Jewell.. 10/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 37308938 37318974 37469001 37659012 37839019 38109016 38428999 38718961 39028833 39108786 39108714 38948681 38498668 38158680 37878715 37378873 37308938 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH