209 WTPA42 PHFO 121502 TCDCP2 Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number 1 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Wed Aug 12 2026 The disturbance well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or so and be near the Islands by late Friday. Given the potential for significant impacts over the Hawaiian Islands, Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories are being initiated at this time. The system's cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to northeast with most of the deep convection well to the southwest of the center. The disturbance currently lacks sufficiently organized convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone, and the Dvorak classifications from Honolulu are T1.0/1.0. Scatterometer data suggests that the intensity is near 30 kt, Satellite fixes indicate that the system is moving generally westward and the initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt. Dynamical models show a mid-level high pressure system persisting to the north of the disturbance. This steering pattern should result in a generally west-northwestward track for the next several days. The simple and corrected model consensus and Google DeepMind track predictions are in reasonable agreement, and the official forecast follows this guidance closely. Given that the system is still in the formative stage, the precise track is still somewhat uncertain. The atmospheric and oceanic environment look conducive for gradual strengthening during the next few days. Based on the intensity models, the system is expected to be nearing hurricane strength by the time it nears the Hawaiian Islands. However, an upper-level low/trough could limit strengthening while the system passes near or over the Islands. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward near or over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with the system is expected to begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward into Maui on Saturday, and across Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Sunday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.0N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/0000Z 15.3N 142.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 13/1200Z 15.9N 144.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 16.9N 145.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 17.9N 148.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 18.6N 150.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 19.1N 153.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 20.6N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 22.3N 163.7W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch  472 WTPA42 PHFO 122044 TCDCP2 Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number 2 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 12 2026 The disturbance remains a broad and sprawling system. The associated deep convection is poorly organized and curved banding features are currently lacking. An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed some wind vectors near 35 kt, although these winds were located well northeast, over 200 n mi, from the estimated center. Therefore the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. Note that the circulation is not well enough defined and the deep convection is not sufficiently well-organized for the system to be considered a tropical cyclone yet, despite the stronger winds. Since the system has a large overall cyclonic circulation, a unique center has become difficult to pin down. There appear to be some swirls rotating around the overall gyre. My best estimate of the initial motion is 260/8 kt. There hasn't been much change to the track forecast or reasoning behind the forecast. A large mid-level anticyclone to the north of One-C should result in a mostly west-northwestward track over the next several days. The official track forecast is basically unchanged from the previous one, and close to the dynamical consensus and Google DeepMind Guidance. Given that the system is still in the formative stage, the precise track is still somewhat uncertain. Sea surface temperatures, vertical wind shear and low- to mid-level humidities should support gradual strengthening during the next few days. Based on the intensity models, the system is expected to be nearing hurricane strength by the time it nears the Hawaiian Islands. However, an upper-level low/trough could limit strengthening while the system passes near or over the Islands. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward near or over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with the system will begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward into Maui Saturday, and Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Sunday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 14.7N 142.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/0600Z 15.2N 143.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 13/1800Z 15.9N 145.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 14/0600Z 17.0N 147.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 17.9N 149.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 18.6N 152.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 19.3N 154.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 22.9N 165.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch  776 WTPA42 PHFO 130251 TCDCP2 Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number 3 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Wed Aug 12 2026 The disturbance remains poorly organized, with at least two mesovortices rotating around the larger circulation. A recent OSCAT pass also shows a very elongated circulation, with gale-force winds confined to the northeastern quadrant. There has been some suggestion in recent imagery that the southern side of the circulation is becoming more dominant, but the overall system is still too ill-defined to be considered a tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt per earlier scatterometer data. The overall circulation envelope appears to be moving westward at about 8 kt. A large high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands should cause a west to west-northwestward track of the disturbance for the next several days. At this point, the track forecast is highly dependent on where a true center forms, with the most northward model formations generally gaining the most latitude, and the southward model solutions usually staying just south of the Hawaiian Islands. The overall model trend is slightly south of the previous forecast, and the new forecast is adjusted in that direction. This should not be considered a high-confidence prediction given the uncertainties on where a center will form. The environment should generally be conducive for intensification during the next few days with warm sea-surface temperatures, low-to-moderate vertical wind shear and ample low- to mid-level humidities in the system's path. Due to the sprawling structure, only a gradual strengthening is anticipated. The intensity forecast near the Hawaiian Islands is challenging because of land interaction and an upper-low dropping near the cyclone. Models tonight generally show a more conducive trough interaction than a high-shear one, and the system is expected to be near hurricane strength by the time it nears the Hawaiian Islands. The new intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, but is leveled off near Hawaii. This forecast could be conservative beyond 3 days, especially if the system moves south of expected. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward near or over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with the system will begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward into Maui Saturday, and Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Sunday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 14.8N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/1200Z 15.2N 144.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 14/0000Z 16.2N 146.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 14/1200Z 17.3N 149.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 18.1N 151.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 18.8N 154.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 19.6N 156.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 21.4N 162.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 23.3N 167.6W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake  605 WTPA42 PHFO 130841 TCDCP2 Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number 4 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 12 2026 Recent ASCAT data suggest that the circulation of the disturbance has become more circular during the past several hours. However, the strongest winds are still located almost 200 n mi to the northeast of the center, and the system continues to lack enough organized convection to be called a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT data showed 35 kt winds, and that remains the initial intensity. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 275/9 kt. A large high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands should steer the system generally west-northwestward for the next several days. While the guidance is in general agreement with this scenario, the track guidance has shifted a bit to the south of the previous guidance suite since the last advisory, and the previous forecast, the HCCA corrected consensus model, and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean are all near the north edge of the guidance envelope. Since reformations of the center could occur as the disturbance organizes, the new forecast track will be nudged only a little south of the previous track at this time. The track forecast, including how close the center will come to Hawaii, will remain low confidence until a better-defined center forms. For the next two days or so, the environment looks generally favorable for intensification. However, the ongoing sprawling structure suggests this strengthening will be gradual. As the system passes near Hawaii, the environment should become somewhat less favorable due to some southwesterly shear, interaction with the island of Hawaii, and dry air entrainment. These conditions are likely to slow or stop intensification. The new intensity forecast is has some minor tweaks for the previous forecast, and it lies in the center of the intensity guidance envelope. As noted in the previous advisory, if the system tracks farther south of Hawaii than forecast, it would stay in more favorable conditions and likely get stronger than forecast. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm by Thursday night and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward near or over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with the Potential Tropical Cyclone will begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 14.8N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/1800Z 15.5N 145.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 14/0600Z 16.5N 147.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 14/1800Z 17.3N 150.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 18.0N 153.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 18.7N 155.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 19.6N 158.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 21.2N 163.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 22.8N 169.1W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven  657 WTPA42 PHFO 131439 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 5 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Thu Aug 13 2026 Over the past several hours, deep convection has been increasing near the center and in bands on the north side of the system. In addition, the circulation appears less elongated and more consolidated. Based on the improvement in its appearance, the system now meets the criteria of a tropical storm. The initial intensity of Lala is estimated to be 35 kt, which is near the middle of the latest satellite intensity estimates. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lala later this morning, and that data will be quite helpful in better assessing the storm's intensity and structure. Lala is moving generally westward at about 9 kt. The track forecast philosophy appears fairly straightforward. A large mid-level high pressure system located to the north of the Hawaiian Islands should keep Lala on a westward to west-northwestward track, taking the core of the system near or just south of the Big Island by early Saturday. Lala will very likely pass south of the smaller islands during the remainder of the weekend. The guidance has trended a bit to the south this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. It is important to note, that the NHC 48-h track error is about 50 to 60 miles. The storm is likely to strengthen during the next couple of days as the environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for the system. The NHC intensity forecast brings Lala up to 60 kt around the time it nears the Big Island, but there is some very skillful guidance, including the Google DeepMind and HCCA that show it becoming a category 1 hurricane during that time. An upper-level low is expected to develop and impart shear, helping intrude dry air in the circulation when Lala moves to the south of the smaller islands, and that could cause some weakening this weekend. However, re-strengthening is forecast early next week when the system pulls away from the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term, but lies near the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and it could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Big Island by early Saturday. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the island. Winds are expected to be the strongest downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along the southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. 4. Interests in the smaller islands should monitor the progress of Lala, and Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.2N 145.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 15.9N 146.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 16.6N 149.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.4N 151.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.0N 154.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 18.7N 156.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 19.6N 159.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 21.0N 164.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 22.6N 169.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Pierce  577 WTPA42 PHFO 132055 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 6 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 13 2026 Tropical Storm Lala has strengthened a little this morning. A very recent ASCAT-B pass showed peak winds of about 40 kt north of the center, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure is around 1000 mb. Based on a combination of aircraft, scatterometer, and satellite data, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 40 kt. The storm's wind field is quite asymmetric with all of its tropical-storm-force winds occurring north of the center. Additional data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be helpful to further assess Lala's intensity over the next couple of days. Lala has slowed down a bit and turned to the west-northwest. A large mid-level high pressure system located to the north of the Hawaiian Islands should keep Lala on a west-northwestward track, taking the core of the system near the Big Island by early Saturday. Lala will very likely pass south of the remainder of the main Hawaiian Islands later in the weekend. The spread in the guidance has increased a little this cycle, with the GFS shifting south of the previous run while the Google DeepMind remains unchanged on the north side of the guidance envelope. Based on a blend of the latest Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids, the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. It is important to note, that the NHC 48-h track error is about 50 to 60 miles. Lala is likely to continue to strengthen while it approaches the Big Island as the storm is expected to remain in generally conducive environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast now shows Lala reaching category one hurricane status when it is near the Big Island, trending toward the latest HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions. An upper-level low is expected to develop and impart shear, helping intrude dry air in the circulation when Lala moves to the south of the smaller islands, and that could cause some weakening this weekend. However, re-strengthening is forecast early next week when the system pulls away from the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged. This forecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term, but lies near the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and it could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by early Saturday. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the island, and a Hurricane Warning could be required later today. Winds are expected to be the strongest in areas of higher terrain. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the remainder of the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along the southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. 4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Lala, and Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.4N 146.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.1N 147.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.9N 150.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.5N 152.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.2N 154.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 19.0N 157.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.8N 160.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 21.1N 165.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 22.3N 169.4W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Pierce  655 WTPA42 PHFO 140251 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 7 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Thu Aug 13 2026 Lala continues to steadily intensify. While the associated central convection has changed little over the past several hours, aircraft data show that the peak 700 mb flight-level winds have increased to 61 kt, and the pressure has dropped to 997 mb, although with a surface dropsonde wind of 49 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. The overall track forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged. A strong mid-level ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands should continue to steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next several days. The cyclone's forward motion is forecast to slow somewhat as it approaches and begins to interact with the terrain of the Big Island on Saturday. Some short-term deviations in the track are also possible during this time due to these terrain interactions. Lala should then resume a faster west-northwestward motion as it passes south of the smaller islands through the remainder of the weekend, and south of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Sunday night into early next week. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, except for a slight northward adjustment in the lee of the Big Island, and lies close to the multi-model consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Environmental conditions are expected to remain generally favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days, with the primary limiting factor being the dry mid-level air that continues to be entrained into the cyclone's large circulation. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Lala is expected to become a hurricane as it approaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the terrain of the Big Island could result in short-term changes in the cyclone's structure and intensity during its closest approach. Thereafter, an upper-level low is forecast to produce increasing vertical wind shear with increasing dry air continuing to entrain into the circulation as Lala passes south of the smaller islands, which should result in some weakening through the remainder of the weekend. Re-strengthening is forecast early next week as the cyclone moves away from the Hawaiian Islands and into a more favorable environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane as it approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by early Saturday. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Big Island and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County. Winds are expected to be the strongest in areas of higher terrain. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the remainder of the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed windward and southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. 4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Lala, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 16.2N 147.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 16.8N 149.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.6N 151.6W 60KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.2N 153.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.8N 155.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 19.9N 158.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 20.6N 161.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 21.7N 165.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 22.6N 170.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs  840 WTPA42 PHFO 140836 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 8 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 13 2026 Lala has shown little change in organization over the past several hours. Most of the deep convection remains confined to the northern portion of the circulation, with little deep convection occurring south of the center. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Lala has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt. In addition, 0621 UTC METOP-B and 0645 UTC METOP-C scatterometer passes provided useful information for adjusting the tropical-storm-force wind radii and confirmed the highly asymmetric nature of the circulation, with much weaker winds across the southern semicircle. Based on all of the available data, the initial intensity is held at a generous 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt. The overall track forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged. A strong mid-level ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands should continue to steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next several days. The cyclone's forward motion is forecast to slow somewhat as it approaches and begins to interact with the terrain of the Big Island on Saturday. Some short-term deviations in the track are also possible during this time due to these terrain interactions. Lala should then resume a faster west-northwestward motion as it passes south of the smaller islands through the remainder of the weekend, and south of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Sunday night into early next week. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the multi-model consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Environmental conditions are expected to remain generally favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days, with the primary limiting factor being the dry mid-level air that continues to be entrained into the cyclone's large circulation. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Lala is expected to become a hurricane as it approaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the terrain of the Big Island could result in short-term changes in the cyclone's structure and intensity during its closest approach. Thereafter, a progressively drier mid-level environment, along with some increase in westerly vertical wind shear, should result in weakening as Lala passes south of the smaller islands through the remainder of the weekend. Some re-strengthening is forecast early next week as vertical wind shear relaxes and Lala remains over warm sea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane as it approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by early Saturday. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Big Island and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County. Winds are expected to be the strongest in areas of higher terrain. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the remainder of the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed windward and southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. 4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Lala, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 16.7N 148.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.9N 150.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.6N 152.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.3N 154.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 19.2N 156.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 20.1N 159.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 20.7N 162.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 21.4N 166.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 22.5N 170.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs  982 WTPA42 PHFO 141444 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 9 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 Lala has remained relatively steady state overnight. The storm continues to be asymmetric, with most of the deep convection and tropical-storm-force winds on its north side. Earlier data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure has been generally unchanged around 997 mb and the maximum winds still near 50 kt. The aircraft data and an OSCAT pass from around 09Z indicate that the wind field has contracted, which could be a sign that circulation is becoming more compact and might lead to strengthening soon. Lala is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and this general motion is expected to persist during the next few days as a mid-level high pressure system remains anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands. This motion should take the core of Lala very near or over the Big Island on Saturday. When Lala is near the Big Island, short-term deviations in the track are also likely due to local terrain interactions, as depicted in many of the models. After Lala passes the Big Island, a continued west-northwestward track south of the remainder of the islands is expected Saturday night and Sunday. The NHC track forecast is mostly unchanged from the previous one, and is based on a blend of the latest Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids, which have been performing quite well for this storm. Steady strengthening is expected during the next day or so since the storm appears to be consolidating while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Lala is still forecast to become a category 1 hurricane when it reaches the Big Island. Land interaction and an increase in wind shear should result in Lala weakening back to a tropical storm as it moves south of the remainder of the island chain later in the weekend. Re-strengthening is forecast early next week as vertical wind shear relaxes and Lala remains over warm sea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane as it approaches the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Big Island and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Maui County. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Oahu and Kauai Counties. Winds are expected to be the strongest in areas of higher terrain. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to impact the Big Island today, spreading westward across the remainder of the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed windward and southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.7N 149.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.2N 151.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.0N 153.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.7N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.6N 158.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 20.2N 160.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 20.7N 163.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 21.2N 166.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 22.3N 170.9W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Pierce  609 WTPA42 PHFO 142035 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 10 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 Lala is gradually becoming better organized. Satellite images show that the circulation appears less elongated and deep convection has increased some near the center. Despite the improved appearance, the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that Lala has not strengthened yet. A very recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds around 40 kt north of the center, which is near most of the objective and subjective satellite estimates. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 50 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Lala later today, and the data they collect will be helpful to assess the storm's structure and intensity. Lala is moving a little faster to the west-northwest at 12 kt, and this general motion is expected to persist during the next few days as a mid-level high pressure system remains anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands. When Lala is near the Big Island, short-term deviations in the track are also likely due to local terrain interactions, as depicted in many of the models. In fact, the model trends and latest guidance now support a landfall on the Big Island on Saturday. After Lala passes the Big Island, a continued west-northwestward track south of the remainder of the islands is expected Saturday night and Sunday. The NHC track forecast is mostly unchanged from the previous one, and is based on a blend of the latest Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids, which have been performing quite well for this storm. Steady strengthening is expected during the next day or so since the storm appears to be consolidating while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Lala is expected to become a category 1 hurricane when it reaches the Big Island. Once it interacts with land, Lala is forecast to weaken back to a tropical storm and an increase in shear, associated with an upper-level low, could also contribute to weakening later in the weekend. Re-strengthening is forecast early next week after Lala pulls away from the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of Hawaii Saturday, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of higher terrain. Preparations should be rushed to completion today before tropical-storm-force winds begin. 2. Heavy rainfall will reach the Big Island later today, and spread westward across the remainder of the island chain this weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed windward and southern shores. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.2N 150.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.8N 152.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 18.4N 154.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 19.4N 156.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 20.2N 159.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 20.6N 162.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 20.9N 164.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 21.5N 168.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 22.6N 171.8W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Pierce  113 WTPA42 PHFO 150833 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 12 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 Lala has shown little change in convective structure over the past several hours, although there have been some decent bursts of deep convection over the circulation with cloud tops as cold as -75 C. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 58 kt in the northeastern quadrant and a minimum pressure of 991 mb. Given the broad structure of the cyclone and the overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt. A mid-level high pressure system anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands should continue to steer Lala generally west-northwestward during the next several days. Some slowing of the forward motion is possible as the cyclone approaches the Big Island and begins to interact with the island's terrain on Saturday. Short-term deviations in the track are also possible during this time. After passing near or over the southern portion of the Big Island, Lala could make a subtle turn toward the northwest in the lee of the island before resuming a west-northwestward motion south of the smaller islands through the remainder of the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 h while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Although mid-level dry air continues to be a limiting factor, the inner circulation could become somewhat more compact and organized as Lala approaches the southern portion of the Big Island. The NHC forecast therefore continues to show Lala reaching hurricane strength near the time it reaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the island's terrain should then disrupt the low-level circulation and result in weakening, with modest vertical wind shear providing an additional negative influence later in the weekend as Lala passes south of the smaller islands. Some re-strengthening is forecast early next week as the cyclone remains over warm sea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of Hawaii Saturday, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of higher terrain. Preparations should be rushed to completion this evening before tropical-storm-force winds begin. Tropical-storm-force winds are also expected across portions of the smaller islands this weekend. 2. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Big Island and spread westward across the remainder of the island chain this weekend. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is already building along east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 17.8N 153.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.2N 154.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 156.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 20.2N 159.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 20.7N 162.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 20.8N 164.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 20.9N 166.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 21.4N 170.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 23.0N 172.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs  403 WTPA42 PHFO 152044 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 14 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 Lala's radar and satellite presentation has improved since earlier this morning, including a ragged eye appearing in visible and infrared satellite images. The Dvorak intensity estimate from WFO Honolulu increased to T4.0/65 kt at 1800 UTC, and radar data from the South Point, Hawaii, site have been showing patches of winds around 70 kt at 8,000 to 10,000 ft to the northeast of the center. Based on this data, Lala was upgraded to a hurricane on the 9 AM HST (1900 UTC) Tropical Cyclone Update, and the initial intensity is still estimated to be 65 kt. Recent radar fixes of Lala's center suggest the hurricane is feeling the influence of the Big Island of Hawaii, and it's now moving more slowly toward the northwest (305/7 kt). Dynamical model fields continue to show the center getting pulled northwestward into or near the Big Island later this afternoon while at the same time a lee-side trough or broad low forms west of the island. This will likely cause a discontinuous track that is not reflected in the official forecast points or track forecast cone. This also makes it unclear if Lala will actually make a landfall on the Big Island. Whatever is left of the cyclone after interacting with the Big Island is expected to turn westward on Sunday and continue on that track through Tuesday. A shortwave trough moving across the northern Pacific around the middle of next week may weaken the ridge enough to allow Lala to turn toward the west-northwest and then northwest, potentially approaching western portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, but there is quite a bit of track guidance spread around day 5. Lala could strengthen a little more over the next few hours before the circulation becomes disrupted by the Big Island. The interaction is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken significantly, and the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered a bit while Lala moves south of the remainder of the main Hawaiian Islands. Some re-strengthening could occur after 48 hours, and the NHC forecast is closest to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. NHC will continue to issue hourly position updates via the Tropical Cyclone Update product (HFOTCUCP2) as long as the eye remains well defined in radar imagery. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of Hawaii today, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of higher terrain. Residents are urged to stay in their shelter through tonight. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are also spreading across portions of the smaller islands and should continue through Sunday. 2. Heavy rainfall will continue to overspread the Big Island this afternoon and then spread westward across the remainder of the island chain tonight and Sunday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is building along east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 18.2N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 19.3N 157.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 20.0N 159.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 20.1N 162.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 20.2N 164.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 20.2N 166.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 20.3N 168.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 21.3N 171.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 23.1N 173.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster BergNHCN-342565  406 WTPA42 PHFO 152044 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 14 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 Lala's radar and satellite presentation has improved since earlier this morning, including a ragged eye appearing in visible and infrared satellite images. The Dvorak intensity estimate from WFO Honolulu increased to T4.0/65 kt at 1800 UTC, and radar data from the South Point, Hawaii, site have been showing patches of winds around 70 kt at 8,000 to 10,000 ft to the northeast of the center. Based on this data, Lala was upgraded to a hurricane on the 9 AM HST (1900 UTC) Tropical Cyclone Update, and the initial intensity is still estimated to be 65 kt. Recent radar fixes of Lala's center suggest the hurricane is feeling the influence of the Big Island of Hawaii, and it's now moving more slowly toward the northwest (305/7 kt). Dynamical model fields continue to show the center getting pulled northwestward into or near the Big Island later this afternoon while at the same time a lee-side trough or broad low forms west of the island. This will likely cause a discontinuous track that is not reflected in the official forecast points or track forecast cone. This also makes it unclear if Lala will actually make a landfall on the Big Island. Whatever is left of the cyclone after interacting with the Big Island is expected to turn westward on Sunday and continue on that track through Tuesday. A shortwave trough moving across the northern Pacific around the middle of next week may weaken the ridge enough to allow Lala to turn toward the west-northwest and then northwest, potentially approaching western portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, but there is quite a bit of track guidance spread around day 5. Lala could strengthen a little more over the next few hours before the circulation becomes disrupted by the Big Island. The interaction is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken significantly, and the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered a bit while Lala moves south of the remainder of the main Hawaiian Islands. Some re-strengthening could occur after 48 hours, and the NHC forecast is closest to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. NHC will continue to issue hourly position updates via the Tropical Cyclone Update product (HFOTCUCP2) as long as the eye remains well defined in radar imagery. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of Hawaii today, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of higher terrain. Residents are urged to stay in their shelter through tonight. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are also spreading across portions of the smaller islands and should continue through Sunday. 2. Heavy rainfall will continue to overspread the Big Island this afternoon and then spread westward across the remainder of the island chain tonight and Sunday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is building along east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 18.2N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 19.3N 157.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 20.0N 159.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 20.1N 162.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 20.2N 164.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 20.2N 166.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 20.3N 168.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 21.3N 171.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 23.1N 173.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg  937 WTPA42 PHFO 160254 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 15 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 Lala has strengthened a little more this afternoon as it passes just south of the Big Island. The eye remains well defined in radar imagery, with the northern eyewall currently brushing South Point. Recent Doppler radar velocity estimates indicate that winds have increased within the eastern eyewall, with upwards of 80 to 85 kt around or just under 5,000 ft depicted. Based primarily on these radar data, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt for this advisory. Recent radar fixes indicate that Lala is moving northwestward, or 320/8 kt, as it continue to interact with the terrain of the Big Island. Lala is now passing within 50 n mi of South Point on the Big Island, where the interaction of the large-scale northeasterly flow with the island terrain, along with a lee-side low northwest of the hurricane, could support this motion persisting tonight. These terrain-induced deviations may not be well represented by the official forecast guidance. For this reason, the NHC forecast lies to the right of the track guidance through 12 h. Thereafter, the official forecast trends back toward the multi-model consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean as Lala turns westward and accelerates away from the Big Island on Sunday. This westward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A shortwave trough moving across the northern Pacific around the middle of next week may weaken the ridge enough to allow Lala to turn toward the west-northwest and then northwest, potentially approaching western portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, but there remains quite a bit of track guidance spread around day 5. Lala could maintain its intensity during the next few hours while it passes south of the Big Island, but weakening is expected shortly thereafter. As the cyclone moves west of the island, entrainment of dry mid-level air, along with the potential for downsloping flow from the Big Island to enter the circulation, could disrupt the cyclone's convective structure and contribute to weakening. Despite the forecast weakening, Lala has a large wind field extending well north of the center, and the interaction of this flow with the terrain of the islands will continue to produce strong winds across portions of the island chain as Lala passes south of the smaller islands. Therefore, significant wind impacts could continue despite the expected weakening trend. Some re-strengthening could occur after 48 hours, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. NHC will continue to issue hourly position updates via the Tropical Cyclone Update product (HFOTCUCP2) as long as the eye remains well defined in radar imagery. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected to continue on the Big Island of Hawaii into the overnight hours, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of higher terrain. Residents are urged to stay in their shelter through tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds with gusts to near or up to hurricane strength will persist across portions of the smaller islands through Sunday. 2. Heavy rainfall will continue over the Big Island this evening and then spread westward across the remainder of the island chain tonight and Sunday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions of the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend. Surf is building along east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 18.7N 156.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 19.6N 157.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 20.2N 160.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 20.3N 163.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 20.2N 165.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 20.1N 167.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 20.3N 169.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 21.5N 172.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 22.9N 175.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs  571 WTPA42 PHFO 160854 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 16 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 Lala appears to have peaked in intensity earlier this afternoon while passing near South Point of the Big Island. Since that time, the hurricane has continued northwestward just offshore of the Leeward Coast of the Big Island, while its satellite presentation has gradually degraded. Despite the less organized appearance, subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from both HFO and JTWC remain at 4.0/65 kt, which align with the latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. Lala continues to move northwestward just offshore of the Leeward Coast of the Big Island, with an initial motion of 310/13 kt. A gradual turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed are expected on Sunday as the influence of the Big Island terrain diminishes and Lala moves westward along the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge. This general motion should continue through early next week. By the middle of next week, a shortwave trough moving across the northern Pacific is forecast to weaken the ridge, causing Lala to slow and gradually turn toward the west-northwest and northwest. Forecast confidence in the track, however, begins to decrease by day 5 due to increasing cross-track spread among the guidance. The latest NHC forecast lies close to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and multi-model consensus (HCCA) aids throughout the forecast period. Lala appears to have peaked in intensity earlier while passing near South Point of the Big Island. The hurricane could maintain its intensity for a few more hours, but weakening is expected by early Sunday as Lala continues to pull away from the Big Island. Dry mid-level air along with moderate vertical wind shear should contribute to a deterioration of the convective structure and support additional weakening. Some re-strengthening could occur after 48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Damaging winds are expected to continue on the Big Island of Hawaii into the overnight hours, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of higher terrain. Residents are urged to stay in their shelter through tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds with gusts to near or up to hurricane strength will persist across portions of the smaller islands through Sunday. 2. Heavy rainfall, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, will continue tonight into early Sunday over the Big Island and Maui. This heavy rain and flood risk will continue to spread westward across the island chain through Sunday. 3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions of the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend. Surf is building along east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.6N 157.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 20.1N 159.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 20.5N 161.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 20.5N 164.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 20.4N 166.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 20.3N 168.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 20.4N 170.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 21.5N 173.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 23.1N 176.1W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Evans  540 WTPA42 PHFO 161455 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 17 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2026 Lala is showing ill effects from land interaction with the Hawaiian Islands and dry air intrusions this morning. The coverage of deep convection has diminished and become displaced to the north of the center. The southern half of the circulation is partially exposed in proxy-visible satellite images, with drier mid-level air apparent in water vapor imagery to the south of the storm. Radar data from Kohala (PHKM) indicate bands of heavy rainfall continue across Maui County and are beginning to reach Oahu. The initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt this morning, which is supported by a blend of the data-T and final-T Dvorak numbers from HFO and JTWC and some of the UW-CIMSS objective estimates between 55-60 kt. The long-term motion of the storm is still northwestward (305/12 kt). Lala is expected to turn westward later today and continue westward for the next couple of days along the southern extent of a subtropical ridge to its north. The track models are in good agreement on this portion of the forecast. The updated NHC track prediction lies slightly north of the previous one, mainly because the current position is north of the previous forecast track. The longer-range track forecast is highly uncertain, with a bifurcation in the track guidance related to whether a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge to induce a northward turn. The ECMWF and UKMET models show a westward motion through the period, while the GFS depicts a sharp northward turn at days 4-5. For now, the NHC forecast continues to split the difference and generally lies between the simple (TVCN) and corrected (HCCA) consensus aids. Given the current structure of Lala and the drier air surrounding the storm, some additional near-term weakening is forecast. However, the intensity guidance this cycle was more aggressive with restrengthening during the middle part of this week, particularly the hurricane regional models. The shear diagnosed from the SHIPS guidance does not appear prohibitive, and SSTs along the track are warm enough to support intensification if Lala can become better organized within a slightly better mid-level moisture environment. Therefore, the updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from 48-120 h, though it still lies below the simple intensity consensus (IVCN). Key Messages: 1. Strong wind gusts are expected to continue across the Big Island of Hawaii this morning, particularly over areas of higher terrain. Across portions of the smaller islands, tropical-storm-force winds accompanied by gusts to near hurricane strength will persist through today. 2. Rain will continue to taper across the Big Island and Maui this morning, however additional areas of flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Otherwise, heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding from Lala will continue to spread westward across the island chain through today. 3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions of the Hawaiian Islands today. Surf is building along east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. 4. Use caution after Lala passes as deadly hazards remain, including flooded areas and downed power lines. If you use a generator, be sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 20.2N 158.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 20.7N 160.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 20.9N 162.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 20.8N 165.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 20.6N 167.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 20.7N 168.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 21.0N 170.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 22.4N 174.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 23.5N 176.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart  457 WTPA42 PHFO 162055 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 18 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2026 The satellite presentation of Lala is highlighted by a large, curved convective band that extends over the northern and eastern sides of the storm. A small area of central convection obscures the low-level center, and a large dry slot wraps around the southern and eastern portions of the circulation. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease this morning, and the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, in best agreement with recent D-MINT and D-PRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS. After moving northwestward for much of the morning, recent radar fixes indicate Lala has sped up and begun its westward turn. A subtropical ridge over the central Pacific should keep Lala moving westward during the next couple of days. The track forecast for days 3-5 remains challenging. There is slightly better agreement among the track guidance this cycle on the storm turning northwestward later in the period as an upper-level trough induces a weakness in the subtropical ridge. However, there is still a bifurcation of GFS and Google Deep Mind ensemble solutions, with some members continuing westward across the International Date Line. With the overall track envelope shifting eastward this cycle, the updated NHC track forecast lies to the right of the previous one at most forecast times. This adjustment is in the direction of the latest multi-model consensus aids and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. Given Lala's disorganized structure, its proximity to the Hawaiian Islands, and the drier environment surrounding the storm, little change in strength is expected during the next 24 h. Once Lala pulls away from Hawaii, warm SSTs along the forecast track could allow for some reintensification. However, moderate west-northwesterly shear and continued dry air in the environment could temper the amount of strengthening that occurs. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward in the 36-72 h period and shows Lala becoming a hurricane again by midweek. The forecast still lies below the intensity consensus (IVCN), which is higher due to the stronger hurricane regional model solutions. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, accompanied by gusts to near hurricane strength, will persist over Maui County, Oahu, and Kauai County today. The strongest winds will occur over areas of higher terrain. 2. Rain will continue to taper off across the Big Island and Maui this afternoon, however additional areas of flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Otherwise, heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding and mudslides from Lala will continue across the rest of the island chain through later tonight. 3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions of the Hawaiian Islands today. Surf is building along east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. 4. Use caution after Lala passes as deadly hazards remain, including flooded areas and downed power lines. If you use a generator, be sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 20.9N 160.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 21.1N 161.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 21.2N 163.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 21.1N 165.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 21.0N 167.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 21.3N 169.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 21.9N 171.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 23.5N 174.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 25.0N 176.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart  638 WTPA42 PHFO 170237 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 19 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sun Aug 16 2026 Lala has shown very little change in convective structure over the past several hours as it begins to move away from the main Hawaiian Islands. Deep convection remains over the center of the circulation, with a large fragmented convective band wrapping into the center across the northern and western semicircles. The latest subjective Current Intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC are T3.5/55 kt, with objective intensity estimates ranging from 35 to 50 kt. Based on these data and the steady trend in satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 55 kt for this advisory. Lala is moving westward, or 265/14 kt. A strong subtropical ridge positioned north of the cyclone should maintain Lala on a generally westward motion through the first half of the week. Thereafter, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge in response to a shortwave trough moving across the northern Pacific, causing Lala to slow and gradually turn toward the northwest and then northward during the latter half of the week. Track forecast confidence remains relatively high through the first half of the week, but decreases thereafter due to run-to-run inconsistencies in the models and considerable cross-track spread among the guidance. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to or slightly left of the previous advisory through midweek, then follows a blend of the previous forecast, the multi-model consensus (HCCA), and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean thereafter to account for the increasing uncertainty. Little change in intensity is expected during the next day or two as Lala continues westward away from the main Hawaiian Islands and south of the eastern portion of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Thereafter, the intensity guidance continues to indicate a strengthening trend, with Lala forecast to regain hurricane intensity around midweek as it begins to turn northwestward. Although the cyclone will remain over warm waters, mid-level dry air and increasing westerly vertical wind shear could limit the amount of strengthening that occurs later in the forecast period. Nevertheless, much of the guidance continues to show Lala strengthening as it approaches portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands later in the week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory through midweek, then trends toward the middle of the guidance envelope during the latter half of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, will persist over Kauai County into the overnight period. The strongest winds will occur over areas of higher terrain. 2. Rain will continue to taper off across the Big Island and Maui by tonight, however additional areas of flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding and mudslides from Lala will continue across the rest of the island chain through later tonight or early Monday. 3. Large waves generated by Lala will continue to impact exposed shores of the Hawaiian Islands through tonight, with a gradual downward trend expected from east to west by Monday. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. 4. Use caution after Lala passes as deadly hazards remain, including flooded areas and downed power lines. If you use a generator, be sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 20.7N 161.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 20.8N 163.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 20.6N 165.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 20.6N 167.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 20.7N 168.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 21.1N 170.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 22.1N 171.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 23.9N 173.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 25.9N 173.6W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Evans  684 WTPA42 PHFO 170837 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 20 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 16 2026 Lala appears to be succumbing to the surrounding dry mid-level air, with convective coverage having diminished over the past several hours. Intermittent bursts of deep convection persist near the center of the circulation, while the previously fragmented band across the northern and western portions of the circulation has weakened. The latest subjective Current Intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC range from 45 to 55 kt, which generally align with the latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. In addition, a 0702 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass provided useful information on Lala's overall structure and wind field and supports an intensity near 50 kt. Based on a blend of these data and the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory. Lala is moving westward, or 270/11 kt, and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days as a strong subtropical ridge remains positioned to the north. Thereafter, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge in response to a shortwave trough moving across the northern Pacific, causing Lala to slow and gradually turn toward the northwest and then northward during the middle to latter half of the week. Track forecast confidence remains relatively high through the first half of the week, but decreases thereafter due to run-to-run inconsistencies in the models and considerable cross-track spread among the guidance. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory through midweek, then follows a blend of the previous forecast, the multi-model consensus (HCCA), and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean thereafter to account for the increasing uncertainty. Little change in intensity is expected during the next day or so as Lala continues westward away from the main Hawaiian Islands and south of the eastern portion of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Thereafter, the intensity guidance continues to indicate a strengthening trend, with Lala forecast to regain hurricane intensity by midweek as it begins to turn northwestward. Although the cyclone will remain over warm waters, mid-level dry air and increasing westerly vertical wind shear could temper the amount of strengthening that occurs later in the forecast period. Nevertheless, much of the guidance continues to show Lala strengthening as it approaches portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands later in the week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory through midweek, then trends toward the middle of the guidance envelope during the latter half of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Rain will continue to taper off across the island chain tonight into Monday morning, but localized areas of flooding and mudslides remain possible. 2. Continue to use caution in the wake of Lala, as dangerous hazards remain, including flooded areas and downed power lines. If using a generator, be sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 20.7N 162.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 20.6N 164.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 20.5N 165.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 20.6N 167.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 20.9N 169.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 21.7N 170.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 22.6N 171.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 24.5N 172.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 26.9N 172.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Evans  907 WTPA42 PHFO 171455 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 21 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Mon Aug 17 2026 Convection is limited to the inner core of Lala based on the latest satellite imagery this morning with the cyclone embedded in a dry airmass. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC range from 45 to 55 kt. The objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33 to 58 kt. Given that the satellite presentation has remained steady the last several hours and using a blend of all the intensity estimates, the current intensity has been held at 50 kt. Lala is moving westward, or 265/10 kt, and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days as a strong subtropical ridge remains positioned to the north. Thereafter, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge in response to a shortwave trough moving across the northern Pacific, causing Lala to turn toward the northwest and then north during the middle of the week. Track forecast confidence remains relatively high through the next few days. Beyond Day 3, the spread increases with the turn to the northwest and north, and how fast that occurs. The GDMI and HCCA turn the system more abruptly, with an increase in forward speed compared to the remainder of the guidance. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory through midweek, then follows a blend of the previous forecast and the HCCA and Google DeepMind aids. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or so as the system moves away from the main Hawaiian Islands, as the system continues to deal with a dry airmass and moderate wind shear. In about a day or so, Lala will move into a slightly better environment with warm sea-surface temperatures and more moisture in the mid-levels, which will allow some intensification to occur. How much intensification remains to be seen, especially if Lala's inner core is small and compact, as some of the hurricane regional models depict. There is also the potential for positive interaction with the aforementioned shortwave trough that may increase storm top divergence. The latest NHC intensity forecast calls for Lala to regain hurricane strength in about a day or two and is similar to the previous prediction, although it is below some of the hurricane regional models, HCCA and GDMI intensity aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 20.4N 163.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 20.4N 164.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 20.4N 166.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 20.6N 168.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 21.2N 169.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 22.1N 171.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 23.1N 171.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 25.3N 172.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 28.5N 171.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Katz/Kelly  305 WTPA42 PHFO 172041 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 22 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 17 2026 Lala is a compact tropical storm. A large, curved convective band wraps most of the way around the system in visible and infrared satellite images. Objective UW-CIMSS D-MINT intensity estimates have increased this morning based on recent SSMIS passive microwave data that showed improved mid-level structure. In addition, HFO and JTWC recently provided consensus T3.5 Dvorak intensity estimates. Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt. Lala is moving just south of due west (260/9 kt). A subtropical ridge to the north of Lala will keep the storm on a westward heading for the next 12-24 h. Then, a shortwave trough is forecast to move over the northern Pacific and induce a weakness in the steering ridge by midweek. This should cause Lala to turn northwestward and then northward later this week. This forecast brings Lala toward portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on Thursday and Thursday night, and watches may be required for parts of that area on Tuesday. Track forecast confidence is higher than yesterday since the track models are in better agreement on the northward turn, though there is still some spread in how abrupt that turn will be. Overall, the updated NHC forecast is slightly faster, but otherwise very similar to the previous prediction. The small size of Lala could make it prone to faster intensity changes in either direction. The storm is currently moving within a fairly dry mid-level environment and experiencing moderate westerly shear. While these conditions are not ideal for strengthening, a solidified inner core could allow Lala to resist some of these inhibiting environmental factors and intensify over warm waters (27-28 deg C). The hurricane regional models and Google Deep Mind (GDMI) remain most aggressive with near-term strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward slightly following the simple consensus (IVCN) and shows Lala becoming a hurricane again by late Tuesday. The longer-range forecast is tricky, as the global models suggest some potential for positive trough interaction later this week before strong southwesterly shear induces weakening. While a secondary intensity peak is not shown in the official forecast, some intensification in 3-4 days cannot be ruled out. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 20.4N 164.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 20.4N 165.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 20.5N 167.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 20.9N 169.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 21.7N 170.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 22.8N 171.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 24.1N 172.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 26.5N 171.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 30.5N 170.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart  915 WTPA42 PHFO 180249 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 23 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Mon Aug 17 2026 The visible and infrared satellite presentation of Lala has improved over the past several hours, with convection becoming increasingly organized around the center of the storm. A recent AMSR-2 microwave pass revealed a well-defined core with a convective band wrapping completely around the center. However, some westerly shear is evident, with the mid-level center displaced slightly to the east of the low-level center. Objective Dvorak intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS span a wide range of 41-63 kt, though these estimates have steadily increased over the past several hours. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from JTWC and WFO HFO were 3.5/55 kt and 4.0/65 kt, respectively. Given the improved satellite presentation and the upward trend in intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving westward at around 10 kt, steered by a ridge of high pressure to the north, and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. By midweek, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the storm from the northwest, inducing a turn toward the northwest then north. This forecast brings Lala toward portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on Thursday and Thursday night, and watches may be required for parts of that area on Tuesday. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous forecast through 96 h, after which it has been accelerated, and remains near the middle of the track forecast consensus. Despite a relatively dry mid-level environment and moderate westerly wind shear, warm sea surface temperature and a well-established inner core are allowing for Lala to strengthen. All available model guidance support additional strengthening over the next 36 h, with the hurricane regional models and Google DeepMind (GDM) showing the most aggressive intensification. In addition, the ECMWF- and GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicate that rapid intensification is possible during this period. The forecast peak intensity has therefore been raised to 80 kt, which lies between the stronger regional hurricane models and GDM solution and the weaker statistical-dynamical model guidance. The longer-range intensity forecast remains more uncertain, as the global models suggest some potential for positive interaction with an upper-level trough later this week, followed by slow weakening as strong southwesterly shear develops. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 20.3N 165.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 20.4N 166.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 20.6N 168.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 21.3N 170.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 22.3N 171.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 23.5N 172.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 24.8N 172.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 27.7N 171.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 31.3N 170.8W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Adams/Pasch  942 WTPA42 PHFO 180856 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 24 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 17 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Lala has continued to become better organized, with an eye emerging in infrared satellite imagery around 06Z. Since that time, the eye has opened and closed a couple times as Lala attempts to become better organized. A very recent GPMI microwave pass also indicates that the eye is becoming better organized. Lala appears to be strengthening, despite being embedded in an environment of 10-15 kt westerly vertical wind shear and a dry mid-level troposphere. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus 4.0/65 kt from PHFO and JTWC. Recent SATCON, DPRINT and DMINT intensity estimates have been ebbing and flowing in the 62-76 kt range. Given these estimates, the initial intensity has been raised to 70 kt, making Lala a hurricane again. The initial motion estimate is westward, or 275/9 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected over the next 36 h as a narrow ridge north of Lala shifts eastward and an upper-level trough approaches the hurricane from the northwest. By Thursday, that trough will cause Lala to turn northward. This forecast brings Lala toward portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on Thursday and Thursday night, and watches will likely be required for parts of that area on Tuesday morning. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but then faster toward the north from 48-120 h. The NHC track forecast is near the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI) and the Simple Consensus aid (TVCN). The confidence is the track forecast is high through 48 h, but there is significant spread in the guidance from 72-120 h in both the along-track and cross-track directions. Lala has been able to strengthen by 20 kt over the past 18-24 h despite a dry mid-level environment and 10-15 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. All of the models indicate continued strengthening over the next 24 h despite a slight increase in wind shear to the 15-20 kt range by 12-24 h. The NHC intensity forecast is between the middle and high end of the guidance during this period. The NHC forecast peak intensity was increased slightly to 85 kt during hour 24-48, similar to an average of the hurricane regional models. Thereafter, most models keep Lala a hurricane through at least day 4 or 5. Although SHIPS guidance shows increasing vertical wind shear in the 60-96 h period, the shear vector should be fairly similar to the direction of motion by that time, limiting the shear's negative influence. Furthermore, the position of the aforementioned upper-level trough relative to Lala could help enhance upper-level divergence and outflow over the hurricane. These factors lead to a complicated intensity forecast around the 60-96 h time frame. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope during that time. By day 5, Lala will likely be approaching the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm as it gains latitude, leading to weakening by that point. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 20.4N 166.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 20.6N 167.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 21.1N 169.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 22.1N 170.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 23.3N 171.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 24.6N 172.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 26.0N 171.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 30.2N 170.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 33.3N 172.1W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen  348 WTPA42 PHFO 181438 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 25 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Tue Aug 18 2026 Lala has become a bit better organized during the past couple of hours. While the eye remains ragged and cloud filled, the eyewall convection has become more vigorous and more symmetric. The various satellite intensity estimates have an unusually large spread from 49 to 77 kt, but they are trending upward. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt based on the recent increase in organization. The initial motion remains westward or 275/8 kt. There is little change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Lala should move westward to west-northwestward for the next 24 h or so as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. From 24-72 h, the cyclone should make a northward turn as a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest breaks down the ridge. From 72-120 h, a turn back toward the northwest is likely as the aforementioned trough becomes a cut-off low with Lala moving around the northeast side of this system. The guidance is in reasonably good agreement with this scenario, although there is some cross-track spread on when the various turns will occur. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and follows a cluster of models that includes the HFIP Corrected consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind Ensemble mean (GDMI). Lala is strengthening despite being in a marginal shear environment and being embedded in a dry mid-level environment. The large-scale models forecast the shear to persist for at least the next three days as the hurricane interacts with the upper-level trough. While the shear should at least slow the strengthening, Lala is forecast to reach a more moist environment, and it may find periods with strong upper-level divergence due to a favorable interaction with the trough. The intensity forecast will show continued strengthening for 24-36 h, and since this part of the forecast is in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope it is possible Lala could get stronger than what is shown here. Sea surface temperatures start decreasing along the forecast track after 72 h, and this should lead to a gradual weakening during that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 20.5N 167.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 20.8N 168.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 21.5N 169.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 22.7N 171.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 24.0N 171.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 25.4N 171.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 27.2N 171.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 31.3N 170.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 34.0N 172.9W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven  470 WTPA42 PHFO 182038 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 26 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 18 2026 Lala has continued to become better organized since the previous advisory, with the eyewall cloud tops continuing to cool and the eye becoming warmer and more distinct. The various satellite intensity estimates continue to have a large spread from 61 to 94 kt, but they have all increased over the past six hours. Based on the previous advisory and current trends, the initial intensity is increased to 90 kt. The initial motion remains westward or 275/8 kt. There is little change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Lala should move westward to west-northwestward for the next 12-24 h as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. From 24-72 h, the cyclone should make a northward turn as a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest breaks down the ridge. From 72-120 h, a turn back toward the northwest is likely as the trough becomes a cut-off low with Lala moving around the northeast side. The guidance is in reasonably good agreement with this scenario, although there is still cross-track spread on when and where the various turns will occur. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and follows a cluster of models that includes the HFIP Corrected consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind Ensemble mean (GDMI). In the short term, it is unclear how much more Lala can strengthen since the hurricane is experiencing 15-20 kt of westerly shear and is embedded in a dry mid-level air mass. Based on the guidance trends, the intensity forecast shows 12 h more strengthening and a peak intensity of 100 kt, which is at the upper edge of the guidance. In the longer term, the large-scale models forecast the shear to persist for at least the next three days as the hurricane interacts with aforementioned upper-level trough. The shear gets strong enough so that the hurricane should weaken some for 24-72 h, although during this time Lala should reach a more moist environment and find periods of strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough. Overall, the intensity guidance shows a slow decay from 24-72 h, and the new forecast follows this. Sea surface temperatures decrease along the forecast track after 72 h, and this should cause continued gradual weakening even though the shear is forecast to decrease. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 20.4N 168.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 20.8N 169.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 21.9N 170.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 23.2N 171.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 24.5N 171.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 26.1N 171.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 28.0N 170.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 31.2N 171.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 33.6N 173.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven  395 WTPA42 PHFO 190253 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 27 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Tue Aug 18 2026 The satellite presentation of Lala has improved markedly over the past several hours, with very cold cloud tops now completely surrounding a clear, symmetric and very warm eye. The latest subjective intensity estimates from WFO HFO and JTWC are 5.0/90 kt and 5.5/102 kt, respectively. However, objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS span a considerably wider range of 94-119 kt. Given the rapidly increasing objective intensity estimates and the continued improvement in Lala's satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been set at 110 kt for this advisory. This makes Lala the first major hurricane of the year in the Central Pacific Basin. Lala is moving west-northwestward around 8 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered to the north. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected on Wednesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the region from the northwest. By Thursday, the trough is expected to weaken the ridge, resulting in a more northward motion. Late this week, Lala is likely to turn back toward the north-northwest as the trough becomes a cut-off low and Lala moves around its northeastern periphery. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through 96 h. Beyond that time, however, there remains considerable along- and cross-track spread regarding the timing and location of the eventual turn back toward the north-northwest. Despite moderate west-southwesterly wind shear, relatively dry mid-level air and unfavorable upper-level winds, Lala has been rapidly intensifying over fairly warm sea surface temperatures. Although recent satellite imagery suggests that the hurricane's strength may be leveling off for the time being, some additional strengthening is possible over the next 12 h or so. The forecast peak intensity has been increased to 115 kt, which is above all available intensity guidance. After 24 h, Lala is expected to move over gradually cooler waters while continuing to encounter moderate west-southwesterly wind shear associated with the trough. During this time, however, the hurricane should move into a more moist environment and experience periods of enhanced upper-level divergence which could temporarily offset some of the unfavorable conditions. The latest NHC forecast therefore calls for only slow weakening beyond 24 h, followed by more steady weakening after 72 h as Lala moves over progressively cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 20.7N 168.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 21.3N 169.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 22.5N 171.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 23.9N 171.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 25.4N 171.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 26.9N 171.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 28.7N 171.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 31.8N 172.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 34.0N 174.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Adams/Pasch  059 WTPA42 PHFO 190834 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 28 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 18 2026 Lala is an impressive hurricane tonight with a very clear eye and cold cloud tops in the surrounding ring of convection. Although recent images have shown some weakening of the thunderstorms in the southwestern quadrant, all of the best intensity estimates (HFO, JTWC, DMINT, DPRINT) were near 115 kt at 6z, so the initial wind speed is raised to that value. The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 8 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered to the north. A gradual turn toward the north is expected by Thursday as a mid- to upper-level trough weakens the ridge. Late this week, Lala is likely to turn back toward the north-northwest or northwest as the trough cuts off, and Lala moves around its northeastern periphery. The biggest change to the forecast is a westward adjustment at long range, though not nearly as far west as the latest Google DeepMind solution. There remains considerable spread regarding the timing and location of the eventual turn back towards the north-northwest or northwest due to the complicated flow regime. Recent satellite imagery suggests Lala could be at the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle, though there any microwave passes are inconclusive. Regardless, most of the models suggest Lala is near peak intensity with warm waters somewhat balancing the moderate shear conditions and a dry mid-level environment. After 24 h, Lala is expected to move over gradually cooler waters while interacting with the aforementioned trough, which should keep the hurricane weakening. The long-range forecast is challenging because the trough interaction could allow for the system to keep more tropical features than typical at such a high latitude in the central Pacific, with very cold upper-level temperatures and lower shear countering sub 25C waters. At this point, a gradual lessening of the winds is shown through the end of the forecast, but is of low confidence due to the variety of possibilities with the upcoming trough interaction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 20.9N 169.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 21.8N 170.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 23.1N 171.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 24.5N 172.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 26.1N 171.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 28.1N 171.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 30.1N 171.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 32.2N 174.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 34.0N 176.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake  091 WTPA42 PHFO 191449 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 29 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Wed Aug 19 2026 Lala continues to be a strong hurricane with a well-defined, pronounced eye and cold cloud tops centralized around a ring of deep convection. Although in the last several hours, cloud tops have warmed some. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC for Lala were T6.0/115 kt and T5.5/102 kt, respectively. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range between 96-114 kt. Using a blend of these estimates and the latest satellite trends, the initial intensity is set to 110 kt for this advisory. Lala has been maintaining a northwestward motion at 310/8 kt, but is forecast to begin a gradual turn to the north by tomorrow as a ridge originally anchored north of the hurricane begins to weaken by an approaching mid- to upper-level trough from the northern Pacific. The latest guidance from HCCA and Google DeepMind has a general consensus that Lala will persist tracking northward through the next couple of days and then return to a northwestward heading. Guidance spread becomes more divergent by Day 3, particularly in the forward speed. The latest NHC forecast track is a blend of the previous one and the GDMI and HCCA corrected consensus aids. The latest model and satellite trends suggest that Lala has reached its peak intensity and will gradually weaken as it continues to track north and west away from the main Hawaiian Islands. However, the system will remain a strong and powerful hurricane as it tracks towards and past the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. Beyond 60 h, moderate shear will steadily increase and mid-level RH values begin to decrease. At the same time, the favorable trough interaction and upper-level divergence begin to decrease as well. Given these factors, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows a steady weakening trend throughout the forecast period and lies near the simple and corrected intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 21.3N 170.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 22.2N 171.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 23.6N 171.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 25.0N 172.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 26.9N 171.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 28.8N 171.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 30.4N 172.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 32.3N 174.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 34.2N 177.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pierce/Kelly  943 WTPA42 PHFO 192035 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 30 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 19 2026 Lala has weakened slightly as the eye of the hurricane does not appear to be as pronounced as before, and the cloud tops of the deep convection in the eyewall have warmed slightly as well. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC for Lala were both T5.5/102 kt. The objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 99-113 kt. From a blend of this data and the latest satellite trends, the initial intensity has been lowered to 105 kt for this advisory. The cyclone has been moving toward the north-northwest at 315/8 kt. However, a more gradual turn to the north should be occuring soon as a ridge that was previously to the north of the hurricane begins to weaken due to the approach of a mid- to upper-level trough from the northern Pacific. The current NHC forecast track does not have many changes from the previous one until around 36 h, where the updated forecast lies slightly to the west of the previous one. Once the system turns to the northwest again, the new track and the old track become very similar again. The other change to the forecast was that the speed of Lala was increased slightly. The current model and satellite trends are indicating that Lala will continue to weaken as it moves farther north and west away from the main Hawaiian Islands. The current NHC intensity forecast continues to maintain the system as a strong and powerful hurricane as it tracks toward and past the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. The wind shear should start to increase more as the cyclone moves farther north as the favorable trough interaction decreases. In addition, past 60 h, the hurricane is expected to enter a drier environment, that should keep the weakening trend going. Given these factors, the current NHC intensity forecast shows a steady weakening trend throughout the forecast period and lies near the simple and corrected intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 22.2N 171.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 23.2N 171.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 24.6N 172.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 26.3N 172.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 28.1N 171.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 29.8N 172.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 31.1N 173.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 33.1N 175.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 34.7N 177.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Katz/Reinhart  231 WTPA42 PHFO 200242 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 31 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Wed Aug 19 2026 The satellite presentation of Major Hurricane Lala has degraded somewhat this afternoon, with the eye becoming obscured by high clouds and slightly warmer cloud top temperatures developing around the center. An earlier AMSR-2 microwave pass indicated that Lala may have undergone an eyewall replacement cycle, with ragged concentric eyes evident in the imagery. This process likely contributed to the recent weakening, as environmental conditions have not changed much since earlier today. Recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from JTWC and WFO HFO were 6.0/115 kt and 5.5/102 kt, respectively, while objective estimates ranged from 90-104 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation, suspected eyewall replacement, and the considerable spread among intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 100 kt for this advisory. Lala is moving northwestward at around 9 kt, steered by an upper-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level trough approaching from the northwest. A turn toward the north, accompanied by a modest increase in forward speed, is expected by tomorrow as the approaching trough weakens the ridge. This general motion is forecast through the next 48 h or so, followed by a turn back toward the northwest this weekend as ridging strengthens to the east. However, there remains considerable spread in the track model guidance regarding the timing of this northwestward turn. The latest NHC forecast is very close to the previous advisory, and remains near the middle of the track guidance envelope. The hurricane is currently moving over very warm sea surface temperatures around 28 C, and Lala is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it tracks toward and beyond the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. After 24 h, increasing wind shear, gradually cooler waters, and strengthening upper-level winds are expected to promote slow weakening over the next several days. However, the wind field is also forecast to expand as Lala interacts with the approaching trough. The latest NHC intensity forecast keeps Lala above hurricane strength through 72 h and lies near the middle of the forecast intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 22.8N 171.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 23.7N 172.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 25.2N 172.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 27.0N 171.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 28.8N 171.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 30.4N 172.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 31.5N 173.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 33.3N 176.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 35.2N 178.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Adams/Pasch  861 WTPA42 PHFO 200839 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 32 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 19 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Lala has lost organization during the evening hours, with most of the deepest convection shifting into the northern semicircle. Microwave data also show this change in structure, with the mid-level center a bit north of the low-level circulation, presumably due to shear. Satellite estimates have noticeably fallen recently, and the current intensity is set to 90 kt as a consensus of the available values. A pair of recent SAR and ASCAT passes were helpful in expanding the wind radii. Lala has turned north-northwestward as it feels the steering by an an approaching mid- to upper-level trough from the northwest. The hurricane should turn northward tomorrow but then move back to the northwest by Saturday as the trough becomes absorbed by Lala and a new ridge forms over the northwestern Central Pacific, blocking any fast exit. For such a complex pattern, the models are in pretty good agreement, and only a small northeastward nudge was made to the official forecast after 36 hours. The hurricane is expected to remain powerful as it tracks through the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Thursday. After moving north of those waters, gradually cooling sea-surface temperatures, and moderate shear is expected to promote slow weakening during the next several days. The absorption of the upper-level trough by the weekend should provide an unusual amount of instability through cold upper-level temperatures, despite waters at 25C or below. Additionally, the shear becomes quite low, limiting the potential dry-air entrainment into the center. These factors suggest it will maintain hurricane strength at quite a high latitude for the Central Pacific. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically just an update of the previous one, adjusted for a lower initial wind speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 23.5N 171.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 24.5N 172.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 26.1N 172.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 28.0N 171.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 29.8N 171.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 31.0N 173.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 31.9N 174.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 33.4N 176.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 35.4N 178.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake  104 WTPA42 PHFO 201455 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 33 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026 While the eye is not presently visible, current satellite observations suggest Lala has slowly reorganized during the early morning hours, with deep convection building in near and south of the center. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak final-T and current intensity numbers from HFO and JTWC, the initial intensity is set at a possibly generous 85 kt. This is a bit higher than the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, which range between 70-80 kt. Lala continues to maintain a north-northwestward track at 340/08 kt, beginning to feel the impacts of the mid- to upper-level trough just northwest of the hurricane. It is forecast that the hurricane track will nudge more northerly tomorrow and pick up a bit of speed. As the aforementioned trough becomes absorbed by Lala, broad ridging building in the Central Pacific just north of the hurricane will help shift Lala on a more northwesterly track by the weekend. Many models, including HCCA and GDMI are in pretty good agreement through the forecast period, with little changes needed to the latest NHC track. The latest model and satellite trends suggest Lala will maintain strength as a strong and powerful hurricane as it nears the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument today. While the hurricane will continue to experience moderate to strong southwesterly shear during the next day or so, upper-level divergence from the aforementioned trough may help counter the negative shear effects. The latest guidance suggests small intensity fluctuations could occur in the near term, and the latest NHC forecast shows little change during this time. Thereafter, gradual weakening is forecast in line with the multi-model intensity consensus as Lala moves over gradually cooling SSTs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 24.2N 172.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 25.3N 172.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 27.0N 171.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 29.0N 171.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 30.3N 172.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 31.4N 173.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 32.4N 174.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 33.9N 176.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 35.9N 178.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pierce/Reinhart  098 WTPA42 PHFO 202040 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 34 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026 Despite some renewed convection earlier today, the central structure of Lala appears to be slowly deteriorating by dry air intrusion, as depicted on the latest satellite images. The Dvorak final-T and current intensity numbers from HFO and JTWC showcase values that warranted the initial intensity to be set a little lower than the previous advisory; now near a possibly generous 80 kt, which is still a bit higher than the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, which range between 65-75 kt. Lala has shifted to a more northerly track at 355/09 kt, just ahead of the mid- to upper-level trough located northwest of the hurricane. As the aforementioned trough becomes absorbed by Lala, broad ridging building in the Central Pacific just north of the hurricane will help shift Lala back to a more northwesterly track by the weekend. The models are in pretty good agreement through the forecast period, and little changes were needed to the latest NHC track which generally follows the HCCA and GDMI trends. Lala will remain a strong and powerful hurricane as it continues to traverse the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next couple of days. The latest intensity guidance suggests small near-term fluctuations are possible within the next 24-36 h as strong upper-level divergence is countered by negative influences of moderate shear and dry air. The NHC intensity forecast shows little change during this time, generally following HCCA. Thereafter, a gradual weakening trend is forecast in line with the multi-model intensity consensus as Lala moves over gradually cooling SSTs and moderate shear returns by 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 24.9N 172.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 26.2N 172.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 28.1N 171.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 29.9N 171.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 30.9N 172.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 31.8N 173.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 32.6N 175.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 34.1N 176.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 35.7N 178.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pierce/Reinhart  538 WTPA42 PHFO 210235 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 35 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026 Lala's satellite presentation has changed little during the past several hours, characterized by a persistent band of deep convection over the western semicircle of the inner core. While intermittent dry air entrainment has occurred, the cyclone has successfully fended off these intrusions before they could significantly disrupt the overall structure. The current Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates show a large spread, ranging from 65 to 92 kt. Given the relatively steady state of the system and a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory. The hurricane has made the anticipated turn toward the north, with an estimated initial motion of 355/8 kt. This general heading should continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, a large mid-level ridge over the central Pacific is forecast to build to the northeast of the system, which should cause Lala to turn back toward the northwest. The track model guidance is in fairly good agreement throughout the forecast period, with the primary spread consisting of only minor along-track differences in forward speed. The updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the various multi-model consensus aids, including the GDMI. Lala will remain a strong hurricane as it moves through the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, passing near or over some of the atolls tonight into tomorrow and lingering within the monument area for the next couple of days. Intensity guidance indicates that some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next day or so. The cyclone is currently situated in an environment with enhanced upper-level divergence, which is helping to offset the negative impacts of moderate vertical wind shear and dry air. Thus, the official intensity forecast shows little change in strength in the short term. By this weekend, a gradual weakening trend should commence, in agreement with the latest HCCA consensus aid, as the favorable divergence aloft wanes and the shear and dry air begin to take a greater toll on the system. In about 3 days, Lala is forecast to move over increasingly cooler sea surface temperatures. The combination of cooler waters, persistent shear, and a dry mid-level environment should induce a steadier rate of weakening. Although the official forecast does not explicitly depict Lala becoming a post-tropical cyclone at the end of the forecast period, some global models suggest the system could struggle to maintain organized deep convection by Day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 25.6N 172.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 27.0N 171.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 28.9N 171.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 30.3N 172.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 31.3N 173.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 32.0N 174.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 32.7N 175.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 34.0N 177.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 35.5N 178.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly  007 WTPA42 PHFO 210852 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 36 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026 A ragged eye has reappeared in infrared satellite imagery, which resulted in subjective Dvorak estimates from HFO and JTWC bumping up to T4.5/77 kt and T5.0/90 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is therefore estimated to be 85 kt, which is also near the middle of the range of objective estimates from UW-CIMSS (75-95 kt). Lala's center has passed Laysan Island and is now beginning to move away from the islands of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. The hurricane is interacting with a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest, which has induced a north-northeastward motion of 020/8 kt. This motion should continue through early Friday, but a relatively quick turn to the north and then northwest is expected late Friday and early Saturday when Lala rotates around to the northern side of the trough. A developing mid-tropospheric high south of the Aleutian Islands should then keep Lala on a slow northwestward trajectory through Tuesday. Mainly as a result of Lala turning more to the north-northeast than previously expected, the track guidance has shifted a bit to the right on this cycle. The new NHC track forecast blends the previous forecast with the latest TVCN, HCCA, and GDMI aids. Various shear diagnostics suggest that the trough near Lala is causing 30-40 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear over the hurricane, but this is apparently being compensated by strong upper-level divergence. These conditions are expected to flip in the next 24-36 hours, with shear decreasing significantly and upper-level divergence becoming more neutral. Lala will also gradually move over cooler waters in the coming days, with sea surface temperatures falling below 26 degrees Celsius in 2 to 3 days. As a result, only slow weakening is anticipated for much of the 5-day forecast period, and the NHC intensity forecast most closely follows the gradual trend shown by the IVCN intensity consensus. By day 5, mid-level moisture and instability, along with relatively low shear, could still be sufficient enough to support some deep convection and keep Lala going as a tropical cyclone, but the storm will probably be getting very close to becoming post-tropical. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 26.6N 171.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 28.1N 171.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 29.8N 171.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 30.9N 172.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 31.8N 173.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 32.5N 174.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 33.1N 175.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 34.6N 176.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 36.6N 178.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg  417 WTPA42 PHFO 211445 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 37 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026 Since the previous advisory, Lala has maintained a relatively steady presentation on infrared satellite imagery, with a ragged eye and a ring of cool cloud tops encircling the center of the hurricane. The initial intensity of 85 kt is a bit higher than the subjective Dvorak estimates from HFO (T4.0/65 kt) and JTWC (T4.5/77 kt), but closer to the objective satellite intensity estimates from CIMSS. Hurricane Lala is also interacting favorably with an upper-level trough. The influence of the trough interaction appears to be slightly accelerating the system towards the north-northeast. The estimated forward motion for this advisory is 030/11 kt, which is forecast to continue through later this morning or this afternoon. By Saturday, a quick turn to the north and then the northwest is expected as the trough exits to the east and a mid-level ridge builds just south of the Aleutian Islands. Lala will then decelerate slightly as the ridge remains the primary steering feature through the remainder of the forecast period. The track forecast is again adjusted slightly to the right of the previous forecast, mainly due to the current motion positioning the system more north-northeast at the initial time. The new track forecast closely follows the HCCA and TVCN aids. The ongoing strong southwesterly vertical wind shear combined with an expansive area of somewhat dry mid-level air appears to be having little effect on the robust inner core of Hurricane Lala. This is likely due to the favorable trough interaction. As the trough moves away from the system, the shear is expected to decrease dramatically, with gradually cooling sea surface temperatures and ambient dry air likely to be the only hindrances through 120 h. The intensity forecast, as a result, shows steady weakening, and I would not be surprised if Lala decays slower than forecast. The intensity forecast is on the higher side of the guidance envelope, which often struggle to capture these favorable trough interactions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 27.6N 170.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 28.9N 171.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 30.4N 171.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 31.4N 172.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 32.1N 173.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 32.7N 174.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 33.5N 175.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 35.0N 176.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 37.0N 178.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Cangialosi  024 WTPA42 PHFO 212033 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 38 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026 The combined influence of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air is more clearly evident on infrared and visible satellite imagery. An earlier microwave pass also indicates the cyclone vortex is tilted in response to the strong shear. The subjective Dvorak estimates from HFO and JTWC are both T4.5/77 kt, with objective satellite intensity estimates near 80 kt. Based on these data, the analyzed intensity for this advisory is 80 kt. Lala is again moving at a slightly faster forward speed toward the north-northeast at 030/12. The overall track forecast philosophy has not changed, however the long-range track will be more sensitive than usual to errors at early forecast hours given the geometry of the track. By Saturday, a quick turn to the north and then the northwest is expected as the trough exits to the east and a mid-level ridge builds just south of the Aleutian Islands. Lala will then decelerate slightly as the ridge remains the primary steering feature through the remainder of the forecast period. The track forecast is once again adjusted slightly to the right of the previous forecast, mainly due to the current motion towards the north-northeast. The new track forecast is a blend of the interpolated previous forecast (OFCI) and the HCCA and TCVN aids. Even though southwesterly shear is forecast to subside during the next 18-24 h, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) will cool gradually as Lala gains latitude, and thus the current weakening trend will continue. Cooling upper tropospheric temperatures could compensate somewhat for the cooler SSTs, allowing Lala to maintain deep convection and weaken at a more gradual pace. The intensity forecast remains on the higher side of the guidance envelope, and is largely unchanged from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 28.6N 170.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 29.9N 171.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.0N 171.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 31.9N 173.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 32.6N 173.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 33.2N 174.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 33.8N 175.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 35.4N 177.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 37.3N 178.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Kelly  049 WTPA42 PHFO 220236 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 39 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Fri Aug 21 2026 Lala has become more asymmetrical this afternoon due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear displacing the convection mostly to the north of the low-level center. A recent GPM microwave pass shows that the low- and mid-level centers are becoming tilted due to the shear. Dry air has also started to intrude into the system, with convection warming and broken banding features. The latest subjective and objective intensity aids have decreased as well following the degraded satellite appearance, with estimates ranging from 63 to 77 kt. Using these estimates and the current satellite trends, the intensity is lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. Lala is moving northward at an estimated motion of 355/8 kt. The system should begin to turn northwestward later tonight into Saturday as a mid-level ridge builds to the east of the cyclone. Lala will move around the western periphery of the ridge, towards the northwest, throughout the forecast period at a slightly slower forward speed. The latest NHC track forecast is nudged slightly to the left toward the latest consensus aids. Although the southwesterly shear is forecast to decrease later tonight or early Saturday, Lala is expected to track over progressively cooler sea surface temperatures and remain embedded within a dry mid-level environment. Thus, the system is forecast to continue weakening throughout the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous and shows a gradual weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 29.4N 170.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 30.1N 171.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 31.0N 172.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 31.8N 173.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 32.3N 174.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 33.0N 174.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 33.8N 175.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 35.5N 177.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 37.3N 178.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly  788 WTPA42 PHFO 220842 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 40 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 21 2026 Lala's structure has evolved over the past 6-12 hours due to interaction with an upper-level trough to its west and southwest. Deep convection has been sheared away from the center due to nearly 30 kt of south-southwesterly shear, and moderate convection now wraps around the northern and western side of the circulation, very similar to the structure of an occluded extratropical low. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from HFO and JTWC are still 4.5/77 kt, and given that winds can be slow to decrease when a tropical cyclone positively interacts with an upper-level trough, the current intensity estimate remains 75 kt. It is estimated that Lala's wind field has also expanded as a result of the trough interaction. A pair of ASCAT passes should hit the cyclone soon to give us a better estimate of Lala's intensity and size. The interaction with the trough has also caused Lala to turn and temporarily accelerate toward the northwest (325/12 kt). A mid-level ridge to the northeast should force the cyclone on a northwestward trajectory for the next 3 days, but the steering is so weak that Lala is likely to slow down considerably, only moving at 4-5 kt on Sunday and Monday. A motion toward the north-northwest could occur by Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge shifts east of Lala, but there is model spread regarding the degree and speed of that turn. The NHC track forecast lies just left of the center of the guidance envelope, leaning toward the HCCA and GDMI guidance, and is also not very different from the previous forecast. Deep-layer shear is forecast to fall to 10 kt or less in about 12 hours once Lala becomes embedded within the larger-scale longwave trough. Since the hurricane is expected to slow down, water temperatures and atmospheric instability are only expected to gradually decrease during the next few days, which should allow for at least moderate convection to continue. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show gradual weakening, generally close to the IVCN intensity consensus, and Lala could still be a tropical cyclone at the end of the 5-day forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 30.3N 172.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 31.3N 172.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 32.2N 173.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 33.0N 174.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 33.6N 175.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 34.3N 175.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 35.1N 176.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 36.8N 178.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 38.9N 179.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg  259 WTPA42 PHFO 221435 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 41 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 The areal coverage of deep convection in association with Lala has been gradually decreasing over the past 12 to 18 h. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from JTWC and PHFO are a consensus T4.0/65 kt. Recent objective satellite intensity estimates range from 50-62 kt. A 22/0905 UTC ASCAT-C overpass had wind vectors as high as 64 kt. Given the degraded appearance on satellite imagery, but also taking into account the well-known low-bias in the ASCAT instrument at those wind speeds, the intensity is nudged downward to 70 kt for this advisory. The 34-kt wind radii were expanded in some of the quadrants based on the ASCAT pass. Lala appears to have made a short-term jog to the west-northwest and is also starting to decelerate, but the longer term motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310 degrees at 9 kt. Two mid- to upper-level ridges, one to the north and one to the west of Lala will cause the cyclone to slow down to a forward speed of around 5 kt on Sunday and Monday while continuing northwestward, before it attempts to squeeze in between those two ridges in 3-5 days. The northwestward motion in 3-5 days will also be aided by an approaching upper-level trough well to the north of the system. There continues to be significant cross-track model spread in the 3-5 day period. The NHC forecast is slower and farther left compared to the previous NHC forecast and is close to an average of the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Simple Consensus (TVCN) models. The dry air getting into the core of Lala has been the culprit for the recent weakening. The shear is forecast to remain low through the forecast period. By the time the mid-level troposphere moistens slightly in a couple of days, Lala will have crossed the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm into cooler waters, and will continue to move into progressively cooler water after that. Since upper-level temperatures will also cool down in a few days along Lala's path, only gradual weakening is forecast, and Lala could still be a tropical cyclone in 4-5 days. Only very small changes have been made to the previous NHC forecast, which lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 30.5N 172.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 31.2N 173.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 31.9N 174.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 32.6N 174.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 33.2N 175.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 34.0N 176.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 34.8N 176.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 36.5N 178.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 38.8N 179.9W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen  617 WTPA42 PHFO 222034 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 42 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Lala’s convective structure hasn’t changed much over the past 6 h, which consists of tightly curved bands. Only some of the area of these convective bands consists of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -30C, whereas only moderate convection covers the remainder of the convective band area, with cloud top temperatures between 0C and -30C. The latest subjective Dvorak classifications are T4.0/65 kt from JTWC and T3.5/55 kt from PHFO. Since convection has been fairly meager for a while now, and we are 12 hours removed from the earlier 09Z ASCAT pass mentioned in the discussion from the 15Z advisory, the initial intensity it again nudged downward, and is set at 65 kt for this advisory. Lala has slowed down over the past 12 hours, and the initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305 degrees at 6 kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. Two mid- to upper-level ridges, one to the north and one to the west of Lala will cause the cyclone to continue moving slowly northwestward through Monday, before it attempts to squeeze in between those two ridges by midweek. The northwestward motion in 3-5 days will also be aided by an approaching upper-level trough well to the north of the system. Only a small change to the right of the previous NHC track forecast has been made, and the latest forecast is close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model. Relatively dry air and decreasing sea-surface temperatures along Lala's track will cause continued weakening. The shear will continue to be weak, and Lala will be moving into an area of colder upper-tropospheric temperatures, so those positive factors will be enough so that only gradual weakening is expected over the next several days. No major changes are made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, which lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The system is now forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical in about 5 days, as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imageries. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 31.0N 172.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 31.6N 173.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 32.4N 174.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 33.0N 174.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 33.6N 175.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 34.4N 176.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 35.1N 176.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 37.0N 178.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 38.8N 179.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Hagen  295 WTPA42 PHFO 230244 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 43 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Lala has a good structure of curved convective bands surrounding a ragged and intermittent eye. However, the cloud tops are not cold, with tops of -50C to -55C confined to small areas near the center. The various satellite intensity estimates range from 45-65 kt and are trending slowly downward, while an earlier ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds between 50-55 kt. Based on these data and the possibility of undersampling of the ASCAT data, the initial intensity is reduced to 60 kt. Thus, Lala is downgraded to a tropical storm. The initial motion is 320/5 kt. During the forecast period, Lala should be steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, with this feature expected to build northwestward due to a developing baroclinic trough over the far northwestern Pacific. This pattern should cause Lala to move on a general slow northwestward track. There is little change to the track guidance, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast. Despite the high latitudes of the forecast, Lala is likely to stay well away from any baroclinic zones that could cause extratropical transition. The cyclone is expected to remain in an area of light to moderate shear for the next several days, so the intensity will be controlled mainly by sea surface temperatures and moisture. The storm has another 24 h over sea surface temperatures of 26C, after which the water gets colder along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance in showing a slow weakening over the next several days. As before, Lala is forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical around 120 h as suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 31.5N 172.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 32.0N 173.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 32.7N 174.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 33.3N 174.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 33.9N 175.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 34.7N 176.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 35.4N 176.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 37.2N 178.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 39.1N 180.0E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven  551 WTPA42 PHFO 230844 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 44 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Visible satellite images before sunset showed the well-defined center of Lala surrounded by pronounced curved convective bands. Infrared cloud top temperatures closer to the center have warmed within the decaying eyewall. A blend of the latest HFO and JTWC Dvorak intensity estimates and the earlier scatterometer data support holding the initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving slowly to the northwest (325/6 kt) with a mid-level ridge positioned to its north and northeast. This ridge is forecast to slide eastward and build over the northern Pacific during the next several days. This should keep Lala on a slow northwestward track through the forecast period. While the track models agree on this general scenario, there is notable cross-track spread in the extended range with the Google Deep Mind and GFS solutions on opposite sides of the guidance envelope. The updated NHC track forecast is slightly slower than the previous one, with small westward adjustments beyond 48 h that trend closer to the latest corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA). Lala is centered over waters slightly warmer than 26C in a relatively weak shear environment. With no baroclinic features forecast to impart shear on the storm or induce its extratropical transition, Lala is predicted to only gradually weaken during the next couple of days. After 48 h, the storm will move over progressively cooler waters, and the updated NHC prediction shows steady weakening during the latter half of the forecast. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite images suggest Lala could struggle to sustain organized convection by midweek, and this forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 32.0N 173.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 32.5N 174.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 33.1N 174.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 33.7N 175.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 34.3N 176.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 35.0N 176.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 35.7N 177.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 37.4N 179.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 39.0N 179.0E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart  882 WTPA42 PHFO 231434 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 45 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 The presentation of Tropical Storm Lala has not changed much on infrared satellite imagery over the past six hours, with deep convection limited to the south and eastern semicircles. Subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and HFO are both T3.5/55 kt, and objective intensity estimates are closer to 50 kt. For this advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, which could be generous but is consistent with a steady decay of the cyclone over cooler waters. Lala appears to have slightly decelerated on a west-northwestward heading (300/4 kt), as it is steered by a weak mid-level ridge positioned just south and east of the central Aleutian Islands. The tropical storm should continue on a generally west-northwestward to northwestward heading through the remainder of the forecast period as the ridge slides eastward. Lala's forward motion is not expected to change much, and remain somewhat slow. The track guidance this cycle remains in decent agreement on this scenario, though there continues to be some cross-track spread, with the GFS presenting a more eastward solution and the Google Deep Mind showing a more westward solution. The updated track forecast is again slightly slower than the previous one, and is again nudged westward toward the latest corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA). The waters near the tropical storm are around 26C, with light shear and dry mid-level air. The shear and mid-level moisture are not likely to change much through the forecast period, so Lala should only weaken gradually as it moves over progressively cooler waters. Cooler upper tropospheric temperatures, which increase tropospheric instability, could counter some of the effect, at least initially, of the sea surface temperatures. By 120 h, Lala is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low, in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery and the large-scale environmental diagnostics from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) guidance. The new intensity forecast is consistent with the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 32.1N 173.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 32.5N 174.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 33.1N 174.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 33.8N 175.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 34.3N 176.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 34.9N 177.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 35.6N 177.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 37.2N 179.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 39.1N 178.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Blake  930 WTPA42 PHFO 232033 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 46 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows Tropical Storm Lala may be a bit better organized, with deep convection over the center and a larger outer band now wrapping around the eastern and northern semicircles. The change in appearance has not yet influenced the objective and subjective satellite-based intensity estimates, which support maintaining an initial intensity of 55 kt for this advisory. I again note that this intensity could be generous, but is consistent with a steady decay of the cyclone over cooler waters and the recent improved appearance on satellite imagery. Lala's current forward motion is analyzed to be 305/4 kt. The mid-level ridge positioned just south and east of the central Aleutian Islands is expected to remain the primary steering feature through this week. As a result, the tropical storm is forecast to continue slowly on a northwestward heading until degenerating into a remnant low by 120 h. The track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA), which lies on the western side of the guidance envelope. The intensity forecast is largely unchanged, lies within the middle of the guidance envelope near HCCA, and continues to show a slow and steady decay as the tropical cyclone moves across gradually cooler waters. Some increase in vertical wind shear beginning around 72 h should allow mid-level dry air to better penetrate the cyclone. Lala is forecast to become a remnant low by 120 h, in agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery, though this could happen sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 32.5N 174.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 33.0N 174.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 33.6N 175.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 34.3N 176.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 34.8N 177.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 35.4N 177.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 36.1N 178.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 37.5N 179.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 39.6N 178.1E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Cangialosi  169 WTPA42 PHFO 240232 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 47 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 Lala remains a well organized tropical storm despite moving over cool waters. The system is maintaining a partial eyewall that wraps a little more than halfway around the center, along with numerous fragmented outer rainbands. There has been little change in the latest satellite intensity estimates, and a blend of the latest objective and subjective estimates supports holding the initial intensity steady at 55 kt. An ASCAT-C pass from around 21Z was helpful in adjusting the 34- and 50-kt wind radii. The storm is moving slowly northwestward at about 6 kt. An even slower northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as Lala is forecast to remain located just southwest of a strong subtropical ridge, not far from the ridge axis where the steering currents are weak. This motion should cause Lala to cross the International Date Line around the middle of the week. Although the models show the same general theme, there is a fair amount of cross-track spread beyond 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies closer to the left side of the guidance envelope, near the Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids. Lala is expected to weaken over the next several days as it moves over progressively cooler waters, but the weakening trend will likely be slow since it is expected to remain in generally low wind shear conditions. The GFS and ECMWF models show the storm losing organized deep convection around the time it nears the International Date Line in a few days. Based on that guidance, the transition to a post-tropical cyclone has been moved up to day 4. Otherwise, this intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 33.1N 174.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 33.5N 175.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 34.3N 175.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 34.8N 176.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 35.4N 177.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 36.0N 178.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 36.6N 179.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 38.2N 179.5E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0000Z 39.8N 177.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi