448 WTPZ41 KNHC 131453 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 900 AM CST Tue Oct 13 2026 Satellite images show that the area of low pressure located to the south of southern Mexico has become better organized over the past 24 hours. Large areas of banded deep convection are seen to the north and the east of the low-level center. An OSCAT pass from 0630 UTC this morning showed a closed circulation, but it was a bit short of being considered well-defined at that time since the data still showed a broad and somewhat elongated area of weak winds within about 75 n mi of the center. However, the convective organization and curved banding has increased since that time, and the circulation appears to have tightened up a bit over the past several hours. The subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB is T2.0/30 kt, and it is estimated that a tropical depression has formed with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The initial motion of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/9 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion should continue over the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridge persists over the northwestern Gulf of America. Thereafter, a turn to the northwest or north-northwest is likely as the ridge weakens. A decrease in forward speed is also expected after day 2 as the cyclone gets caught in weaker steering currents in between the weak ridge to its north and Hurricane Simon to its northwest. Spread in the track forecast is larger than normal from day 3 to 5, and some of this uncertainty is likely also due to uncertainty in Simon's track. A cold front moving southward from Texas into Mexico toward the end of the forecast period could help draw Simon closer to the coastline of Mexico, if the front is potent enough. Regardless, Tropical Depression 21-E could potentially be very close to the coast of Mexico as a hurricane over the weekend, and several Google DeepMind Ensemble members show the cyclone making landfall in southwestern or west-central Mexico. The NHC forecast closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), and isn't too far off from the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean. Confidence in the track forecast is low, especially beyond day 3. The cyclone is forecast to traverse extremely favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions for at least the next 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast shows steady strengthening over the next 24 hours as the cyclone works to develop a convective core. After that time, rapid intensification is forecast during the 24 to 72 h time window. The DTOPS in the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance is forecasting a 74 percent chance of a 65-kt increase over the next 72 h. The NHC intensity forecast is even more aggressive and shows 85 knots of strengthening over the next 72 h. The NHC forecast is slightly below the HCCA and GDMI in the short term, but very near the HCCA and GDMI beyond Day 2. The HAFS-A and HAFS-B models strengthen the cyclone to a category 4, and 36 of the 50 Google DeepMind members make it a category 4 or stronger, so the NHC forecast will aggressively show this system reaching category 4 strength at days 3 and 4. Beyond day 4, the possibility of increasing vertical wind shear and land interaction could induce some weakening, and most of the guidance shows the system losing some intensity after day 4. Confidence in the intensity forecast is above average. We are fairly confident it will become a strong hurricane due to the favorable environmental conditions and model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 9.8N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 10.5N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 11.3N 99.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 12.0N 100.5W65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 12.8N 101.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 13.7N 101.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 14.5N 102.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 18.6N 105.3W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen  776 WTPZ41 KNHC 132037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Tue Oct 13 2026 Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone continues to become better organized. Both microwave and geostationary satellite data indicate that the center is likely about 60 miles to the east-northeast of the previous estimate, and based on recent data, confidence in the initial position estimate is a little higher now. The improving low-level center appears to be located near the southwest edge of a recent burst of deep convection. The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB is T2.5/35 kt, and a recent AiDT intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS is also 35 kt. An ASCAT pass from 1452 UTC had a couple of believable 31-kt vectors north of the center. Given the low bias of the ASCAT instrument due to its resolution, and based on the improving structure observed on satellite imagery since that time with increased banded convection near the low-level center, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Trudy with 35-kt winds. The initial motion estimate for Trudy is northwestward, or 320/7 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridge persists over the northwestern Gulf of America. Thereafter, a turn more toward the north-northwest is likely as the ridge weakens. A decrease in forward speed is also expected by day 2 as the cyclone gets caught in weaker steering currents in between the weak ridge to its north and Hurricane Simon to its northwest. Spread in the track forecast is larger than normal from day 3 to 5, and some of this uncertainty is likely also due to uncertainty in Simon's track and strength. A cold front moving southward from Texas into Mexico toward the end of the forecast period could help draw Simon closer to the coastline of Mexico, if the front is potent enough. Regardless, Trudy could potentially be very close to the coast of Mexico as a hurricane over the weekend. The NHC forecast has been pushed to the right (east) of the previous forecast due to the farther east initial position and a net eastward shift in the model guidance during the first 3 days of the forecast. At days 4 and 5, the new NHC forecast is only slightly east of the previous NHC forecast, which would bring Trudy closer to the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. The new NHC forecast is very close to the latest Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean. Confidence in the track forecast remains low, especially from hour 72 to 120. The cyclone is forecast to traverse extremely favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions for the next 4 days or so. The NHC intensity forecast shows steady strengthening over the next 12 hours as the cyclone works to develop a convective core. After that time, rapid intensification is forecast during the 12 to 60 h time window. Some of the SHIPS rapid intensification guidance shows a fairly high chance of rapid intensification over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast shows 80 knots of strengthening over the next 72 h, and is in excellent agreement with the latest HCCA and GDMI. 90 percent of the Google DeepMind Ensemble Members are forecasting Trudy to become a major hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and it's possible that Trudy could get stronger in between the day 3 and 4 points, when the cyclone is likely to peak in intensity. Beyond day 4, the possibility of increasing vertical wind shear and land interaction could induce some weakening, and most of the guidance shows the system losing some strength after day 4. Confidence in the intensity forecast is above average. We are fairly confident it will become a strong hurricane due to the favorable environmental conditions and model guidance.Key Messages: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 10.6N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 11.3N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 12.0N 99.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 12.7N 100.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 13.5N 100.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 15.3N 101.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 17.1N 103.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 19.1N 105.2W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen  729 WTPZ41 KNHC 140848 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 AM CST Wed Oct 14 2026 Trudy continues to be a complicated storm to locate and forecast. A recent ASCAT pass shows that the center is farther west-southwest than the previous best track position. In addition, the ASCAT pass was also used to adjust the wind radii for the cyclone. The satellite presentation shows that the bulk of the convection remains on the north side of the storm, but recently new deep convection has developed over the center with cloud tops colder than -70 C based on the infrared imagery. Based on the latest TAFB Dvorak and UW-CIMSS intensity estimates, the initial intensity for Trudy has been raised to 45 kt. The repositioning of the center based on the previously mentioned ASCAT pass has long-reaching impacts for the track forecast. With the initial position farther west-southwest than before, the updated track has been generally shifted west of the previous forecast. The current track forecast has Trudy being steered by a mid-level ridge over the southern United States for the next 72 h. Afterwards, the uncertainty in the track becomes larger than normal due to the cyclone entering a region of weaker steering flow. This occurs due to the previously mentioned mid-level ridge retreating as a trough moves over the western United States. The current NHC track forecast heavily favors the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. In this current track forecast, the center of the cyclone does remain offshore of southwestern Mexico, but there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the long-range track forecast. The environmental conditions are very favorable for strengthening, and Trudy is expected to rapidly intensify and should become a hurricane within 24 h. Trudy is forecast to reach major hurricane status somewhere around 48 h and continue to intensify for around 60-72 h. After that, wind shear is expected to steadily increase as mid-level relative humidity decreases, thus a general weakening trend is expected to occur. The new intensity forecast is generally about the same as the previous one, however slower weakening is shown late in the period since the new forecast remains offshore. The current intensity forecast is still on the upper end of the guidance envelope, but is in good agreement with HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. Key Messages: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of these areas later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 11.1N 99.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 11.5N 100.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 12.4N 101.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 13.1N 101.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 14.0N 102.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 14.9N 102.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 16.0N 103.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 18.5N 105.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 20.4N 106.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Katz/Reinhart  959 WTPZ41 KNHC 142047 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Wed Oct 14 2026 Trudy continues to become better organized, with the central convective mass becoming larger and colder. Recent SAR, ASCAT and SSMIS passes give higher confidence that the center position is now embedded underneath the middle of the impressive-looking convective overcast. The latest TAFB intensity estimate is 4.0/65 kt, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have been increasing, now in the 44-51 kt range. The ASCAT-B pass from around 16Z had a peak wind retrieval of 51 kt. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is conservatively set at 55 kt. Based on microwave center fixes over the past 6 to 12 hours, Trudy has been moving west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends over central Mexico. However, the ridge is expected to weaken on Thursday, as Trudy moves closer to Hurricane Simon. The two tropical cyclones are forecast to be within 500 miles of each other by Thursday evening, which could be close enough to influence each other's steering. By Thursday, an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough in the west-central Gulf of America and this possible interaction with Simon should cause Trudy to turn north-northwestward and possibly northward for a time Thursday night or Friday. As Simon finally moves northwest late in the forecast period, it should allow the ridge to build back in and induce Trudy to make a leftward turn back toward the northwest. Since Simon is a small tropical cyclone though, it may not have much of an influence on Trudy's track, which could allow Trudy to turn west-northwestward and away from the coast of Mexico by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one through 96 hours, but is farther south at day 5, indicating a sharper turn toward the west-northwest or west by the end of the forecast period. Environmental conditions continue to look quite favorable along Trudy's track through the next 60 hours, although recent NESDIS glider observations suggest that Trudy may briefly traverse lower ocean heat content for 24 hours between this evening and Thursday evening before reaching higher ocean heat content again. The wind shear will remain low through about 60 hours, but the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows southwesterly vertical wind shear around 20 kt from day 3 to 5. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, calling for steady to rapid intensification over the next couple of days, peaking around 115 kt around hour 60. This is similar to the HCCA, GDMI, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B, all of which peak Trudy as a major hurricane between 105-120 kt in about 60 hours. After that time, increasing wind shear and drier air should cause steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the overall model guidance suite. NHC continues to call for Trudy to get close to the coast of Mexico as a major hurricane, and given the track uncertainty, residents of southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue to closely monitor the progress of Trudy, and be ready to possibly implement their hurricane plan. Key Messages: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of these areas later today or tonight. 2. Large swells will likely begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico late this week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 11.9N 100.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 12.5N 100.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 13.2N 101.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 14.0N 101.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 14.9N 102.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 15.8N 102.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 16.9N 103.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 18.8N 105.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 19.4N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen  761 WTPZ41 KNHC 150838 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 AM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 Trudy's satellite presentation continues to improve, with an expanding central dense overcast containing cloud tops as cold as -85 degrees C and a curved convective band wrapping into the circulation from the north. Earlier microwave passes revealed improving inner-core organization, while a 0339 UTC MetOp-B scatterometer pass helped refine the cyclone's wind radii and structure. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is T4.0/65 kt, which is consistent with the latest objective estimates. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt, making Trudy a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/8 kt. A gradual turn toward the north-northwest is expected during the next day or so as the mid-level ridge extending across central Mexico weakens in response to an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of America. Some interaction with Tropical Storm Simon, a compact tropical cyclone located several hundred miles to the northwest, could also influence Trudy's steering. This pattern is expected to bring Trudy very close to the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico over the weekend, from near Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, before a rebuilding ridge to the north induces a westward turn away from the coast early next week. Considerable track uncertainty remains, particularly from days 4 to 5, when the guidance continues to show a significant amount of cross-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction through 72 h, with another slight adjustment to the north at days 4 and 5 as Trudy turns westward away from the coast. The forecast closely follows the latest HCCA and GDMI consensus aids. Environmental conditions remain quite favorable for significant strengthening during the next couple of days, with very low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and plenty of deep moisture surrounding Trudy. The continued improvement in Trudy's convective structure and inner-core organization suggests that the hurricane could be poised to undergo a period of rapid intensification (RI). This possibility is supported by the latest SHIPS RI guidance, which indicates a 28 to 40 percent probability of a 35-kt increase in maximum winds during the next 24 h, roughly four to six times the climatological mean. Although Trudy could briefly encounter lower ocean heat content associated with the wakes of previous tropical cyclones, oceanic conditions are forecast to become more favorable thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast calls for RI during the next 24 h, with Trudy expected to become a major hurricane by Friday, followed by additional strengthening through Saturday. By day 3, increasing vertical wind shear and the entrainment of drier mid-level air are expected to induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains above the guidance envelope during the next few days, then lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope thereafter. Trudy is forecast to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as a major hurricane this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds could reach portions of the coast as early as Saturday, and watches will likely be required for portions of the coast later this morning. Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Trudy and be prepared to implement their hurricane plans. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches will likely be required for portions of the coast later this morning. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest coast of Mexico between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the weekend across Colima and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 12.9N 101.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 13.4N 101.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 14.2N 102.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 15.1N 102.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 16.1N 103.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 17.4N 104.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 20.5N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs  159 WTPZ41 KNHC 152049 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 Trudy's intensification appears to have temporarily paused. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the hurricane a few hours ago and reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 84 kt and a central pressure near 978 mb. Satellite imagery shows an attempt to form an eye, but it has not yet fully cleared out. The various satellite intensity estimates have changed little over the past few hours, and the initial intensity remains 80 kt based on them and the aircraft data. The satellite imagery suggests a tongue of dry air is wrapping into the cyclone around the north side of the central dense overcast, and this may be responsible for the pause in the development. The initial motion is north-northwestward or 345/5 kt. The hurricane is currently heading for a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough extending from the Yucatan Peninsula westward to central Mexico. During the next 36 h, this feature should weaken and move eastward, allowing a mid- to upper-level ridge to develop over Mexico. This evolution should cause Trudy to turn northwestward roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. The bulk of the track guidance keeps the center just offshore of the coast. However, any track to the right of the official forecast - such as shown by the GFS - would bring the center onshore. After 72 h, low- to mid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone should steer it slowly westward. The new track forecast is a little to the east of the previous forecast through 36 h, similar to the previous forecast from 36-72 h, and a little north of the previous forecast from 72-120 h. Except for the apparent tongue of dry air, conditions appear favorable for steady to rapid development during the next 24-36 h. The new intensity forecast keeps the peak intensity of 125 kt from the previous advisory, which is near or a little above the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After 36 h, there should be increasing southwesterly shear that will likely halt development. Even with the forecast track keeping the center offshore, the cyclone will likely be close enough to land to cause the cyclone to weaken. However, any track to the left and farther offshore of the current forecast would let Trudy stay stronger than currently forecast, while any track that the brings the center inland would cause rapid weakening and possibly dissipation. Beyond 72 h, strong shear should cause continued weakening even though the center is moving away from land. The intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance, and it is near the upper edge of the guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of the southwestern Mexican coast, and additional watches will likely be required further up the coast tonight or Friday. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 13.7N 101.7W 80 KT 90 MPH12H 16/0600Z 14.3N 101.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 15.2N 102.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 16.3N 102.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.5N 103.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 18.8N 104.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 19.8N 105.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 20.5N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 20.5N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven  725 WTPZ41 KNHC 160247 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 900 PM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 The latest satellite imagery of Trudy continues to show a core of deep convection with cloud tops near -80C, particularly on the western side of the circulation. During the past few hours, an eye feature has become apparent on infrared and proxy-vis imagery. Unfortunately, there have not been any recent microwave passes to provide a better assessment of the core structure since the Air Force Hurricane Hunters departed earlier this afternoon. The latest subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB is T5.0/90 kt, while UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have a fairly large spread of 65-81 kt. Given the improved satellite presentation since the previous advisory, with an eye-like feature, and the TAFB classification, the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt. The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 345/6 kt. Trudy is moving generally north-northwestward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by an upper-level trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. As the trough moves eastward, the ridge is forecast to build over central Mexico, steering Trudy northwestward to north-northwestward along its western periphery and roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. Most of the track guidance keeps the center just offshore, with the exception of the GFS, which brings the center inland. After 72 h, a mid-level ridge to the north of the system is expected to build, turning Trudy more westward. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through 60 h, but has been adjusted slightly north thereafter, leaning toward the HCCA and GDMI aids. Environmental conditions are favorable for steady to rapid intensification during the next day or so. Sea surface temperatures are near 29-30C, combined with low vertical wind shear and abundant mid-level moisture. The NHC peak intensity forecast still remains at 125 kt, which is above all the intensity guidance. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) index still shows a 20 to 30 percent chance of RI over the next 24 h, and the NHC forecast explicitly reflects RI during that time frame. After 36-48 h, increasing southwesterly wind shear, potential internal structural changes, such as eyewall replacement cycles, and land interaction will begin to disrupt the circulation, inducing a weakening trend. Regardless, Trudy is forecast to be a powerful major hurricane as it nears west-central Mexico. It is worth noting that the intensity forecast is highly sensitive to the exact track. A track farther to the left and offshore would allow Trudy to remain stronger than currently forecast, while a track that brings the center inland would result in rapid weakening. Beyond 72 h, strong shear should cause continued weakening, even though the system will have less land interaction as it moves farther offshore. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the guidance initially, then trends toward the HCCA corrected consensus by the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, bringing an increasing risk of storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rain. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for portions of the coast, and additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Friday. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 14.3N 102.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.0N 102.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 15.9N 102.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.1N 103.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 18.4N 104.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 19.7N 105.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 20.7N 106.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 21.0N 107.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 21.3N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly  008 WTPZ41 KNHC 160852 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 AM CST Fri Oct 16 2026 Trudy has rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane overnight. Its 15-n-mi wide eye, which is evident in proxy-visible and infrared satellite imagery, is surrounded by a solid ring of very deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. A prominent outer band wraps around the northwestern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is set at 105 kt for this advisory, trending closer to recent Dvorak estimates in lieu of the objective estimates that appear too low given Trudy's impressive satellite structure. The hurricane unexpectedly moved westward for several hours tonight and now appears to be drifting northward, but using a longer-term estimate yields a slow northwestward motion (325/5 kt). The track guidance is clustered on Trudy moving north-northwestward today before turning back toward the northwest tonight and into the weekend in response to a building ridge over Mexico. This will bring the center of Trudy very near the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico in 48-60 h. The NHC track forecast shifted westward this cycle in response to the westward deviation described above, and most models including the skillful Google DeepMind keep the center of Trudy offshore. However, note that small changes to a track forecast that is parallel to the coast could result in large differences regarding the severity of potential impacts. Users should pay close attention to the watches and warnings in place and continue monitoring forecast updates. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so while Trudy moves over very warm SSTs in a moist, low shear environment. The near-term NHC intensity forecast lies on the high end of the guidance (near HCCA) given the storm's current structure and these favorable conditions. Southwesterly shear associated with a cutoff low near northern Baja California is forecast to increase later this weekend as Trudy moves northward, which could induce some weakening. Potential land interaction further complicates the forecast, but Trudy is predicted to remain offshore at this time and be a major hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Mexico. Thereafter, more significant weakening is forecast as the system encounters even stronger shear and a drier mid-level environment. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, bringing an increasing risk of storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rain. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for portions of the coast, and additional watches and warnings will likely be required today. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest coast of Mexico between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 14.2N 102.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 14.8N 102.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 15.9N 103.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.4N 104.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 20.3N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 21.0N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 21.4N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 21.8N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Reinhart  784 WTPZ41 KNHC 161456 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 900 AM CST Fri Oct 16 2026 Satellite imagery shows that Trudy's intensification has again paused, with the eye becoming less distinct and the convective cloud tops in the eyewall becoming warmer. An earlier GPM microwave overpass suggested that the eyewall has opened up on the south side, possibly due to a tongue of dry air wrapping into that part of the hurricane. The various satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the last advisory, so the initial intensity is held at 105 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Trudy later today. The initial motion is a somewhat erratic 335/4 kt, as Trudy has followed its previous westward jog with a northward jog. A gradual turn toward the northwest is likely during the next 24 hours as a weak low-level to mid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This motion should continue through about 72 hours, with the center passing near or over the coast of west-central Mexico at about the 48 hour point. After that time, a weakening Trudy should be steered more by low-level flow. However, the guidance has some spread as to which direction that should be. Some of the guidance shows a west-northwest or west motion, while some models steer the cyclone more northward due to the influence of a large deep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific. This part of the forecast track splits the difference by showing a slow west-northwestward motion. Overall, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 60 hours, and then is a little to the north of the previous track. While the environment that Trudy is in seems to be conducive for strengthening, the intensification has sputtered twice during the past day or so. And in an interesting twist, the regional hurricane models do not forecast any additional strengthening before the hurricane reaches a less favorable environment. Other intensity guidance suggest some intensification could still occur, and based on a blend of this and the previous forecast the new intensity forecast shows some strengthening during the next 24 hours. Trudy is still expected to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of Mexico. Later in the forecast period, Trudy is expected have land interaction, move into a drier air mass, and encounter increasing southwesterly shear. These factors should cause steady to rapid weakening, and the new forecast follows the previous forecast in showing the system as a post-tropical low by 120 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, bringing an increasing risk of storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rain. Hurricane Warnings and Watches, as well as Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches, are currently in effect for portions of the coast, and additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today or tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 14.6N 102.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 15.3N 102.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.6N 103.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 18.1N 104.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 19.6N 105.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 20.7N 106.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 21.2N 107.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 22.2N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven  101 WTPZ41 KNHC 162041 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Fri Oct 16 2026 After the last advisory was issued, the eye of Trudy disappeared and WFSM microwave data indicated that the central convective structure had decayed. In addition, a synthetic aperture radar overpass near 12Z showed maximum winds of around 80 kt. When an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reached the storm between 18-19Z, it found a central pressure near 982 mb and maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 76 kt. Based on this and satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been reduced to 75 kt. The reasons for this weakening are speculative, but it one possibility is that the slow-moving hurricane has upwelled cold water underneath it as it crossed the paths of Polo and Rachel. The initial motion is a somewhat erratic 330/4 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is likely during the next 12 hours or so as a weak low-level to mid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This motion should continue through about 60 hours, with the center passing near or possibly over the coast of west-central Mexico at about the 48-hour point. After that time, a weakening Trudy should be steered more by low-level flow, which should steer it generally west-northwestward. The new forecast track is near or just to the west of the previous track, and it lies a little to the right of the center of the guidance envelope. Trudy's forecast track takes it into an area of deeper warm water, which in theory could cause the hurricane to re-intensify during the next 24 h or so. However, there still may be a tongue of dry air wrapping around the central core, and as the cyclone gets close to the coast of Mexico land interaction becomes a negative factor. Some of the guidance shows a little re-intensification, while some of it shows continued weakening. This part of the intensity forecast will include modest intensification during the first 24 h. After 48 h, Trudy should encounter strong shear and a dry air mass, and this combination should produce steady weakening. The global models that keep the center offshore forecast the system to stop producing convection between 96-120 h, and the intensity forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low at that time. The new intensity forecast has major reductions in intensity compared to the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While Trudy is no longer forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, it will still bring an increasing risk of storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rain. Hurricane Warnings and Watches, as well as Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches, are currently in effect for portions of the coast, and additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 14.8N 102.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 15.5N 103.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 16.9N 104.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 19.7N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 20.5N 106.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 20.9N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 21.5N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 22.1N 109.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven