FOCN45 CWWG 081900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT WEDNESDAY JULY
8 2026.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...AIR QUALITY WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MANITOBA, NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, THE NWT AND THE MOUNTAIN PARKS IN
ALBERTA. HEAT WARNING FOR PARTS OF THE NWT. HEAT WARNING FOR CORAL
HARBOUR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES OUT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL,
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALBERTA. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR HEAT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

OVERVIEW...MORNING WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY REVEALS A PAIR OF LOWS; ONE
OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A SECOND OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY.
A RIDGE SITS BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS OVER SASKATCHEWAN, EXTENDING NORTH
INTO THE NWT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVER NORTH
DAKOTA.

AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH
SASKATCHEWAN, AND THE NWT TOWARDS VICTORIA ISLAND. AN OCCLUDED 995 MB
LOW SITS OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY WITH A FRONTAL WAVE DETACHED TO THE
EAST OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT OF THE FRONTAL WAVE EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE GRADUALLY CURLING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE ALBERTA FOOTHILLS AND CONNECTING TO A 1007 MB LOW
OVER NOTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.

DISCUSSION...

WESTERN PRAIRIES...NUMEROUS WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BURN IN
NORTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BRINGING POOR AIR QUALITY TO SOME
LOCATIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG A
EASTWARD PROGRESSING SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE, CAPE
AND SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. INCOMING SMOKE FROM BC
WILDFIRES MAY INHIBIT INITIATION IN SOME AREAS. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT DESCRETE CELLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THESE TRIGGERS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE INITIAL CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERING ALONG THE TROUGH SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AND
BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO AREAS NEAR SK BORDER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER EAST-CENTRAL AB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA HAS ADVECTED INTO THE
PROVINCE, LEADING TO POOR AIR QUALITY IN THE MOUNTAIN PARKS. AS A
RESULT, AN AIR QUALITY WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. DEPENDING ON THE
EXTENT TO WHICH THE SMOKE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE, THESE AIR QUALITY WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO
ADDITIONAL AREAS.

EASTERN PRAIRIES...WILDFIRES FLARED UP YESTERDAY OVER THE NORTHERN
PRAIRIES, CREATING SEVERAL SMOKE PLUMES THAT DRIFTED ACROSS NORTHERN
MANITOBA YESTERDAY EVENING. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLED, SMOKE
GOT TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE CREATING LOCALIZED ELEVATED PM 2.5 VALUES.
THUS, AIR QUALITY WARNINGS WERE EXPANDED SOUTH TO FLIN FLON,
THOMPSON, AND NORWAY HOUSE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY WITH THE RIDGE
PROGGED TO SETTLE IN OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA, BUT WITH THAT WILL COME
CLEAR SKIES AS WELL AS VERY WARM AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS. SO, THE
EXPECTATION IS ANOTHER DAY OF WILDFIRES FLARING UP, CREATING FURTHER
CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED POOR AIR QUALITY OVER THE REGION.

SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TO PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHCENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN LATER TODAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED B.C. LOW WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
TRANSLATING EAST INTO WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE KINDERSLEY/NORTH BATTLEFORD REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON AIDED BY THE INJECTION OF THE PARENT TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES AND INTO ALBERTA. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH RETURN FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
COMBINE TO USHER IN DEW POINTS IN THE MID TEENS AT THE SURFACE OVER
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
ON TAP TODAY.

WITH THE HEAT AND MOISTURE, A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP
LATER TODAY WITH ML CAPE VALUES ALONG THE WARM FRONT RANGING FROM
1500 - 2500 J/KG. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT. SHEAR IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SHEAR OF 20-40 KTS, BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE. CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE HAS STORMS INITIATING IN ALBERTA
AND MOVING EAST INTO WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THIS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE A LARGE HAIL
(3-6 CM) AND WIND (90-11O KM/H) DRIVEN THREAT. TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS 0-1 KM SRH IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
THUS, TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS APPROACH AND CROSS THE
WARM FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MARCH EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, AND ARRIVE TOWARDS WESTERN
MANITOBA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

AS THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE PUSHES FURTHER NORTH IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK, A LONG DURATION HEAT EVENT LASTING WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED FOR A LARGE SWATH OF THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING
THE LOW 20S. HUMIDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 45 ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED TO BE THIS WEEKEND. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS EVENT.

WESTERN ARCTIC...SMOKE IS AFFECTING NEARLY ALL COMMUNITIES IN THE
NWT. STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS AROUND GREAT SLAVE LAKE.

THE NORTHERN BC UPPER LOW WILL BRING ORGANIZED SHOWERS TO THE UPPER
MACKENZIE BEGINING TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE
LIARD BASIN WHERE 25 TO 50 MM IS FORECAST OVER THE FOLLOWING 24
HOURS.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MACKENZIE VALLEY
TODAY. HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE SAHTU, WHERE
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 20S MAY WELL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THESE AREAS MAY SUPPRESS DAYTIME HIGHS.

EASTERN ARCTIC...THE RIDGE OVER THE NWT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
KIVALLIQ TODAY, BRINGING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND 20 DEGREES TODAY, BUT WILL
APPROACH MID 20'S BY THURSDAY PROMPTING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT ALERTS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE KIVALLIQ INCLUDING CORAL HARBOUR. ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

END/ZIOLKOWSKI/PATTEN/COLANGELO/ALBRECHT