FOCN45 CWWG 191900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT TUESDAY MAY
19 2026.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
ALBERTA FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

OVERVIEW...ALOFT, A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
AN UPPER LOW SITS NEAR THE MOUTH OF HUDSON STRAIT WITH UPPER
TROUGHING WESTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY AND THEN DIPPING SOUTHWEST THROUGH
MANITOBA AND THEN COVERING MOST OF WESTERN CONUS. THE REMAINING UPPER
FEATURES IN THE ARCTIC ARE A LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN ALASKA ACROSS YUKON INTO NORTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA, A
COMPACT UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA THROUGH
EASTERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH SITS OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO.

AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC NORTH THROUGH ALASKA AND YUKON TO A BROAD HIGH OVER THE
ARCTIC OCEAN. EAST OF THIS, A 1005 MB LOW SITS OVER GREAT SLAVE LAKE
WITH A FRONT DRAPED NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN YUKON AND A WARM FRONT
THAT ARCS SOUTH THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA. EAST OF THIS, A
1027 MB HIGH SITS OVER SOUTHWEST HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS MANITOBA AND INTO THE STATES. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH ALSO HAS
RIDGING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC TO LABRADOR AND NORTH OVER
SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND TO NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND. IN THE NORTH, A 1002 MB
LOW SITS OVER THE NORTHERN CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO WITH A TROUGH
SOUTH TO A WEAKER SECONDARY LOW OVER VICTORIA ISLAND. LASTLY, A 998
MB LOW SITS OVER THE BREVOORTS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAFFIN
ISLAND.

DISCUSSION...

ALBERTA...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
PROVINCE. WE HAVE TWO AREAS OF INTEREST; ONE OVER EASTERN ALBERTA
WHERE SFC AND THE 850 TROFS ARE ALIGNING, AND THE OTHER OVER WESTERN
ALBERTA WHERE THE UPPER TROF IS MOVING IN.

LET'S START IN THE EAST: AFTER THE UNSETTLED/CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
YESTERDAY'S STORMS (AND THE RESULTS IT YIELDED), AND WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY (WEAK SHEAR, WEAK CAPE, CONVERGING
BOUNDARIES), WE OPTED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATMENT FOR FUNNEL
CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN REGIONS.

OVER THE WEST, THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING WEST TO EAST. THE BEST
AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS LIKELY TO THE WEST OF EDMONTON
WHERE STORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE 500 JET. THIS AREA LOOKS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND MOVE INTO EDMONTON EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS NEAR 70 TO 90 KM/H AND SMALL HAIL. MLCAPES OF 500 TO 750 J/
KG HERE.

LATE TODAY A LEE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR CALGARY AND MOVES TOWARDS
KINDERSLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY TO GO THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING OVER 25 MM
WITH IT NEAR LLOYDMINSTER WEDNESDAY.

MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN...INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TODAY; SBCAPE
VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 400 TO 500 J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. DRIER LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
INVERTED-V PROFILES AND DCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG; AS A RESULT WIND GUSTS
OF 70 TO 90 KM/H MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
TODAY. THERE WILL BE NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY.

OTHERWISE, LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS LIKELY
REDEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PROVINCE THIS AFTERNOON, DRIFTING SOUTHEAST, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE
EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON; NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THEM.

FROST ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AS TEMPERATURES DIP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING UNDER THE
SURFACE RIDGE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END
TO THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO
NEAR-SEASONAL DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN PRAIRIES ON
WEDNESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY, A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL MATERIALIZE
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE PROVINCE. SBCAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO
1,000 J/KG RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH BULK
SHEAR VALUES LIMITED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. ENHANCE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WILL COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE DIMINISHED SHEAR VALUES, AS WILL A
BROADER PATTERN OF FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN; THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW BUT IT
MAY END UP ONE OF THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EVENTS OF THE SEASON
THUS FAR.

NWT/NU...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
AND DISSIPATES TODAY. FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY TOWNSITES WILL BE
MINIMAL WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST COULD SEE
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 MORE CENTIMETRES.

LOW WEST OF RESOLUTE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING SNOW
AND SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 40 KM/H TO RESOLUTE TODAY. CANADIAN MODELS
HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. TOTAL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO 10 CM OF SNOW. LOWER VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW
OCCURRED THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

OTHERWISE A CHANCE OF FZRA IN GJOA HAVEN AND TALOYOAK TONIGHT AROUND
6Z.

END/LUZNY/PIMISKERN