FXUS65 KABQ 091847 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1247 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day from daily afternoon thunderstorms. - A low risk of severe storms exists today and Friday across far northeast NM, mainly in Union County. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The 595dm H5 high remains centered west of the region over and just offshore SoCAL and the northern Baja Peninsula. Thus a similar setup for afternoon thunderstorms remains across the Land of Enchantment with little change from yesterday's observations. Afternoon convection favoring development over the southwestern, south- central, and Sangre de Cristo Mts will be the rule. Storms moving E/SE off the Sangre de Cristo's will have a marginal risk of becoming strong/severe, tapping into higher bulk shear capable of some single-cellular organization early on mostly over Colfax and Union Counties. Some of these cells will look to congeal over east- central NM by the I-40 corridor late day and evening, continuing to their demise somewhere over east-central NM generally between Clovis, Fort Sumner, and Roswell late this evening. Slow moving storms over the south-central mountains near Ruidoso will have some chance to produce locally heavy rainfall early this afternoon, but should be relatively short-lived. Storms over the Gila NF and further up along the Continental Divide will be mostly dry in nature threatening strong erratic gusts and dry lightning. However, even the stronger storms will be capable of producing brief locally heavy rain at times as has been observed in some spots of Catron and Socorro Counties the past few days. Drier westerlies will push further into the northwestern quadrant of NM today, and furthermore Friday as the H5 remains fairly flat. This will continue to shut down precipitation chances for the most part over the portion of the state. Areas of the upper to middle Rio Grande from Taos to Los Alamos to Santa Fe to ABQ, will be in that transition zone where some meager showers or isolated thunderstorm will be capable of producing a few spits of rain and mostly erratic gusty winds between 3p - 8p. Heat will be the main story there where highs are forecast to climb into the upper 90s to low 100s. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Northwest Plateau (Farmington) today, and will be issued again for Friday. Highs in the low 100s elsewhere in the middle to lower Rio Grande Valley from ABQ to Socorro will warrant an expansion of Heat Advisories there as well where Moderate to Major Heat Risk is forecast to exist. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Saturday begins the long term period with the H5 coalescing and gathering strength over the Four Corners region. This will continue the moderate to major heat risk mainly along and west of the Rio Grande Valley where highs will again climb into the low 100s for lower elevation areas. Afternoon thunderstorms will again favor the same areas for development along the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mts, and southwestern mountains in the Gila NF. Storms moving off the Sangre de Cristo's will again drift S/SE over the eastern plains with less bulk shear to work with in order to organize. However, convective strengths could still allow for a short-duration pulse severe here and there. Storms near the Ruidoso area will be slower movers, favoring a S/SW direction, capable of locally heavy rainfall. The H5 high builds to 599-600dm Sunday into Monday as it tours WY and the northern Great Plains, with it's associated H5 heights reaching near record to record heights in the portion of the CONUS. Thankfully for New Mexico, this means lowering pressure heights locally and an influx of heightened monsoonal moisture from the Gulf via TX. Highs fall back into the 80s and 90s most areas. While available moisture increases, highlighted by an uptick in PWATs to near 1.00" early next week, the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms at this time does not favor a significant uptick. With the H5 to the north and northeast, scattered storms that do form will favor a westward motion likely developing along the central, northern, and western mountains. Rain efficiency of these storms should increase, with less potential for any virga and dry thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today's afternoon thunderstorms will favor development over the Sangre de Cristo's moving E/SE, slow-moving off the Sacramento Mts and southwestern mountains. Localized MVFR with gusty and erratic winds, lightning, and rainfall will accompany any of these cells. Drier air will push in and shut down thunderstorm chances for the most part in northwestern NM, including KFMN and KGUP, although a few light virga showers are likely to be around KGUP. Gusty and erratic winds are more likely to push into KSAF-KABQ- KAEG again late this afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms moving E off the Sangre de Cristo's will have chance to become strong to severe b/w KRTN and KCAO, with a batch of modest showers and thunderstorms trying to make it all the way to KROW and KCVN by the late evening. Conditions calm and clear out overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Fire weather concerns will be limited to the very low humidity and poor to fair recoveries over western NM, coupled with intense heat. The heat subsides with increasing moisture and humidity arriving next week. Afternoon thunderstorms today and Friday will continue to favor areas along the central mountain chain and southwestern mountains, with cells off the Sangre de Cristo's moving S/SE. Storm motions will be more S/SW Saturday, then becoming more westerly next week as the main dome of high pressure migrates over WY and the northern Great Plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 99 61 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 94 48 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 59 93 59 94 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 58 95 55 96 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 59 91 58 93 / 5 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 58 95 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 60 92 60 93 / 5 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 65 93 66 92 / 10 20 10 0 Datil........................... 61 90 62 89 / 10 10 5 5 Reserve......................... 55 96 56 97 / 10 40 20 10 Glenwood........................ 59 99 60 101 / 20 40 10 40 Chama........................... 49 88 49 89 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 65 92 66 91 / 0 5 0 5 Pecos........................... 58 92 59 90 / 0 10 10 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 88 56 89 / 0 0 5 20 Red River....................... 49 79 48 79 / 0 5 5 30 Angel Fire...................... 36 83 37 83 / 0 5 5 50 Taos............................ 53 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 54 87 55 86 / 0 20 20 60Espanola........................ 61 97 62 99 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 64 93 65 92 / 5 5 5 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 96 62 95 / 5 0 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 98 71 99 / 5 0 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 100 67 99 / 5 0 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 102 67 102 / 5 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 100 69 100 / 5 0 5 0 Belen........................... 65 102 66 101 / 10 0 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 67 101 68 101 / 5 0 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 64 102 65 101 / 5 0 5 10 Corrales........................ 67 101 68 102 / 5 0 5 5 Los Lunas....................... 65 102 66 101 / 5 0 5 5 Placitas........................ 68 98 69 97 / 5 0 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 67 100 68 101 / 5 0 5 5 Socorro......................... 71 103 72 103 / 10 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 93 64 93 / 5 10 10 40 Tijeras......................... 63 95 64 94 / 5 5 10 40 Edgewood........................ 60 96 60 94 / 5 5 5 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 97 57 95 / 5 5 5 40 Clines Corners.................. 58 91 58 89 / 10 10 10 40 Mountainair..................... 61 95 61 94 / 10 10 5 40 Gran Quivira.................... 63 94 63 92 / 20 10 10 50 Carrizozo....................... 68 96 68 95 / 20 10 10 50 Ruidoso......................... 63 86 62 86 / 20 40 10 60 Capulin......................... 53 85 53 86 / 20 50 40 50 Raton........................... 53 91 53 90 / 10 40 30 60 Springer........................ 55 93 55 92 / 5 30 30 50 Las Vegas....................... 56 90 57 88 / 5 20 20 50 Clayton......................... 61 92 61 93 / 30 50 50 20 Roy............................. 59 90 59 89 / 10 20 40 40 Conchas......................... 66 100 65 98 / 20 20 40 30 Santa Rosa...................... 64 98 64 93 / 20 5 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 69 101 67 98 / 30 5 50 10 Clovis.......................... 68 98 67 97 / 20 0 30 5 Portales........................ 70 99 69 98 / 20 0 30 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 100 69 97 / 20 0 20 5 Roswell......................... 72 103 72 99 / 20 0 10 0 Picacho......................... 66 96 66 94 / 20 20 10 5 Elk............................. 64 92 63 92 / 10 40 10 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ201-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24