FXUS63 KABR 151830
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
130 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph will 
continue this evening across central and north central South Dakota 
behind a cold front. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all 
counties west of Brown and Spink through early Friday morning.

- Another round of light rain moves into eastern SD and west central 
MN this evening before exiting late tonight. Up to a tenth of an 
inch of rain is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Gusty northwest winds continue to spread east today behind the sfc 
cold front and with the upper trough. There have been a couple gusts 
over 58 mph along and west of the Missouri in the clear air, better 
mixing environment, but nothing widespread enough to merit an 
upgrade. As the upper trough digs in more this evening, the 80 to 
90kt jet will help keep the winds gusty overnight. Ensemble 90th 
percentiles keep gusts to 50 mph over the Coteau and the Sisseton 
Hills early Friday morning. Current NBM holds those gusts to around 
40 mph, so did not expand the wind headlines farther east for now. 

Another area of low clouds is wrapping around the low in northern ND 
and pushing south into north central SD this afternoon. These clouds 
are expected to expand and stick around most of the night. Some 
additional sprinkles or light rain is possible in this 
wraparound/deformation zone. Between the persistent winds and the 
clouds, temperatures should not drop below freezing. Blended in hi-
res model guidance to push temps up a few degrees. Have lows in the 
30s for tonight with Corson county approaching freezing as sfc high 
pressure builds in from the west. Given the winds, decided not to go 
with any frost headlines for tonight. However, Friday night/Saturday 
morning will need another look for frost/freeze headlines. There are 
still model differences in timing of a building ridge aloft and exit 
of the sfc high that will influence Friday night's lows. 

Temperatures warm above normal starting Saturday with the ridge 
aloft. Dry and warm conditions are then expected through the middle 
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR cigs are expected to move back in through the afternoon on
northwest flow. Northwest winds will remain elevated through the
night with gusts of 30 to 40 kts. 

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>005-
     009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20