FXUS63 KABR 161723 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1223 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-The winds will pick up again tonight into Saturday, with a
 30-50% chance for gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the 
 eastern edge of the Sisseton Hills. 

-Low temperatures tonight into Saturday morning will be in the
 low to mid 30s. These temperatures could cause frost to form 
 overnight before the winds pick up.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1016 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Made a few minor changes to the forecast today, mainly to
decrease the sky cover some and lower wind speeds and gusts.

UPDATE Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Strong northerly winds have been gusting up around 45-55 mph 
overnight as a stronger winds aloft are pushed to the surface by 
cold air advecting into central and northeastern SD. These winds 
will slowly be decreasing from west to east through the early 
morning, with wind gusts over northeastern SD decreasing below 30 
mph by mid morning. The stronger winds aloft have also been able to 
interact with some moisture aloft and cause some scattered showers 
to develop overnight and move through the area. As the winds die 
back early this morning, so does the ability for these showers to 
develop. Through the day, drier air aloft will be moving in as high 
surface pressure shifts over SD. Both the drier air and high 
pressure will help to finally erode the clouds that have been stuck 
over central and northeastern SD and west central MN, and we will 
have some clear skies by the afternoon. 

Those clear skies will help to cool temperatures tonight into 
Saturday morning into the mid to low 30s. These cold temperatures 
could help frost to form over northeastern SD and west central MN 
tonight. This frost will have to form during the early overnight 
hours, because as the high pressure moves out this evening, strong 
southerly winds will move in over the area. These stronger winds 
will disrupt the frost formation, and can keep the frost from 
forming into early Saturday morning. These winds will be gusting up 
around 25-30mph across central and northeastern SD overnight. 
Additionally, as these winds reach the Prairie Coteau, they could 
become stronger due to downsloping winds. There is a 30-50% chance 
for wind gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of 
the coteau Saturday morning. A wind advisory might be needed for 
these areas into early Saturday afternoon because of this. Warmer 
temperatures will be moving in Saturday from the southerly winds, 
which will help to warm temperatures about 5-15 degrees warmer than 
normal for this time of the year Saturday and Sunday.

The downsloping winds from the southwesterly direction will continue 
into Saturday night. Then, a surface trough will then be moving 
through SD Sunday, shifting the winds to be coming from the north 
and decreasing the downsloping effects along the coteau. The drier 
air that moves in today will stick around through the beginning of 
the week and will help to keep precipitation from developing as the 
surface trough move through on Sunday, as well as into the beginning 
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals
through the valid TAF period. Northerly winds with gusts of 15
to 25 knots at KABR and KATY will subside later this afternoon,
before shifting to the southwest tonight. All terminals will see
south-southwesteasterly winds with gusts exceeding 15-20 knots
later tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for 
     SDZ020>023.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for 
     SDZ006>008-011-018-019.
MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for 
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...17
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...17