FXUS61 KAKQ 221735 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 135 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Slight (level 2/5) excessive rain risk trimmed back to just the Eastern Shore. - Marginal (level 1/5) Severe risk added to areas west of I-95 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and some embedded storms are likely today, especially near the Chesapeake Bay and on the Eastern Shore. While severe weather is not expected, localized flash flooding will be possible. 2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 305 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and some embedded storms are likely today, especially near the Chesapeake Bay and on the Eastern Shore. While severe weather is not expected, localized flash flooding will be possible. A weak stationary boundary remains just south of the forecast area this morning, roughly aligned along the NC/SC coast. There is also a broad trough axis aloft across most of the eastern CONUS. Locally, there is a ribbon of mostly light rain across the northern/northwest portions of the area. This conflicts with several earlier runs of various CAMS which depicted rather widespread overnight showers and storms, particularly across SE VA and NE NC. In fact, these areas are actually quite stable as of this writing with sfc temps in the lower 70s and dew points in the upper 60s, which yields low/near-zero sfc-based and MUCAPE. Any appreciable instability remains confined to our S, in closer proximity to the front. Therefore, really don't see much convective activity developing through around sunrise. The front will (eventually) lift northward as we head into this afternoon. Model and WPC progs also depict weak low pressure developing in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay and Eastern Shore. This, combined with some low-level convergence, should be sufficient for showers to develop in these areas by late this afternoon and afternoon. Instability looks quite meager, especially early on in the day, so am not expecting widespread thunderstorms at this time. A moist atmospheric column (PWATS ~2.1" across the E/SE) and slow- moving activity will support a continued heavy rain and localized flash flooding risk. The 00z HREF also depicted a relatively impressive signal for heavy rain and some flash flooding in the Eastern Shore vicinity. However, all of the 00z members that comprised the ensemble suite are currently handling the ongoing activity extremely poorly. Therefore, confidence in the evolution of convection later today is low and some recent runs of the CAMs are less bullish about the overall coverage of showers and the associated heavy rain signal. In summary, localized pockets of very heavy rain are possible, but the exact location is uncertain and the coverage may tend to be on the low side. All of this precludes the need for any Flood Watch at this time. Late this evening, convection from the Great Lakes and OH Valley, associated with the primary cold front and trough, could approach our Piedmont counties. However, diminishing instability and reduced forcing with eastward extent should allow for most of this activity to diminish as it moves eastward tonight. Outside of any precip, temps will be quite "cool" for mid-late August and only in the upper 70s-lower 80s (some mid 80s possible SE). Skies will average mostly cloudy, with some clearing possible W of I-95 this afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. The weak front will finally move offshore late Sunday, as the main upper level trough axis shifts offshore and surface high pressure builds into the SE CONUS. The surface high will usher in a drier airmass with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s Sunday into early next week. A reinforcing intrusion of dry air is likely Monday night/Tuesday with dew points in the 50s looking likely (except 60s far SE). The high is progged to break down by Wed/Thu, with unsettled conditions and isolated- scattered aftn/evening convection returning mid to late week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... Conditions have overall improved at the terminals as of latest obs, though some spotty MVFR CIGs are lingering in the region as a whole. Showers continue to linger across the immediate coastal areas, but have largely avoided the terminals. Left precip as prob30s for the most part due to the low confidence, but did put showers in a prevailing group for SBY since the approaching cold front should be able to push the showers from the Ches Bay closer to the terminal. The aforementioned front will sweep through the region overnight, ushering in drier air. Light winds turn to the west behind the front tomorrow. Patchy fog is possible inland late tonight due to light winds and lingering low level moisture. Outlook: Drying out as high pressure fills in. Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the early week period. && .MARINE... As of 125 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. - Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected today, with diminishing chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. A weak surface trough remains centered along the coast today. Meanwhile, a larger trough moves in from the west late today into tonight. Scattered showers and storms have developed along the first trough over the Ches Bay and are expected to continue through this afternoon. Additional showers/storms are possible with the second trough this evening. Winds this afternoon were SE 5-10 kt for most of the local waters with locally stronger winds of 10-15 kt across the middle Ches Bay. A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible across the Ches Bay through tonight, however, confidence in frequent gusts to 20 kt is too low to issue SCAs at this time. Otherwise, a warm front slowly lifts north later today into tonight, allowing winds to become SW 10-15 kt behind the front tonight. A cold front slowly pushes across the local waters Sun with high pressure building in behind it. As such, winds become light and variable Sun. Another weak cold front crosses the coast early Mon with a brief wind shift to NW, before becoming variable with speeds remaining less than 10kt. Yet another weak cold front crosses the coast early Tue, resulting in a brief wind shift to N/NNE. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast from mid to late week, resulting in SE-SW flow at or below 15kt. Seas of 2-3 ft continue through the week with predominant seas of only around 2 ft. Meanwhile, waves remain 1 ft to occasionally 2 ft waves in the Ches Bay. A low rip risk will be maintained through Tue. Will note that while winds become onshore Tue, nearshore seas remain only around 1-2 ft which should limit the rip current risk. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/SW AVIATION...AC MARINE...RMM