FXUS61 KALY 071901 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 301 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As the forecast remains on track this afternoon, no significant changes were made. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Persistent showers this afternoon will give way to drying conditions this evening through Thursday morning. 2) Temperatures will begin to warm again beginning tomorrow, though lower humidity will likely keep heat indices below dangerous levels in most places through the end of the weekend. 3) The next chances for thunderstorms come Thursday and potentially Friday with the passage of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A low pressure system currently spinning south of the Massachusetts coastline beneath an upper-level trough will continue to track north and eastward farther into the western Atlantic through tonight. Before dry conditions are fully reinforced across the region, however, scattered wrap around showers will persist through this afternoon, mainly in portions of the Capital District; Mid-Hudson Valley; Taconics; and western New England, as the system slows in its progression. Most of the resulting rain will be light in nature with additional rainfall expected to amount to about 0.25" or less. Therefore, there are no concerns of flooding outside of nuisance ponding in urban areas. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure swiftly builds into the region behind the departing system tonight, reinforcing dry conditions across eastern New York and western New England. Dry and pleasant conditions will remain in place through at least Thursday morning with temperatures trending to and just above normal. That said, highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with low enough levels of humidity as to not pose any risks of heat-related illness. A few degrees worth of warming Thursday with higher dewpoints may challenge our Heat Advisory criteria, particularly throughout portions of the Hudson River Valley, but confidence is low in this element of the forecast. In fact, the latest LREF indicates a less than 10% chance for heat indices greater than or equal to 95F Thursday. Seasonable to just above seasonable warmth will then continue through the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 3... The next best opportunity for convection will be Thursday and potentially Friday as a series of boundaries track through the region. There continues to be some uncertainty pertaining to the timing of the boundary progressions. However, at this time, the best opportunity for thunderstorms looks to be Thursday as clouds may limit our instability for Friday. And while confidence is not yet high in the severe potential, medium-range guidance suggesting 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and 25-30kt of bulk shear hint at the potential for some organization of any developing storms. We will continue to monitor over the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday... KGFL starts off this TAF period in VFR conditions, while a mix of rain and mist brings MVFR cigs and vis to KALB and IFR conditions to KPOU and KPSF. Rain showers will gradually taper off throughout this afternoon and evening, allowing for a temporary return to VFR/MVFR at all terminals. Clearing skies overnight will promote mist/fog at all terminals, bringing cig/vis categories back down to IFR overnight into early Wednesday morning. Conditions will improve after sunrise tomorrow, with clear skies persisting and VFR conditions returning across all terminals. Northerly to northeasterly winds prevail at the start of this period, with some moderate gusts at KPSF. Winds will gradually weaken into the overnight hours, becoming light and variable. This will persist through the end of the TAF period at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF, while KGFL will start to see southerly winds in the late morning to early afternoon Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...23