FXUS61 KALY 080541 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 141 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Mentioning the showers have ended and patchy to areas of fog developing tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The showers ended with patchy to areas of valley mist and fog developing tonight. 2) Temperatures will begin to warm again beginning tomorrow, though lower humidity will likely keep heat indices below dangerous levels in most places through the end of the weekend. 3) The next chances for thunderstorms come Thursday and potentially Friday with the passage of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure continues to move away from Cape Cod late this afternoon. High pressure will be ridging in over NY and New England tonight. The clouds will continue to erode from the I-90 corridor south and east overnight. Patchy to areas of radiational mist/fog will form with clear/clearing skies, recent wet ground and light to calm winds from north to south over the region tonight. Some of the fog may be locally dense in the valley areas. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure swiftly builds into the region behind the departing system tonight, reinforcing dry conditions across eastern New York and western New England. Dry and pleasant conditions will remain in place through at least Thursday morning with temperatures trending to and just above normal. That said, highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with low enough levels of humidity as to not pose any risks of heat-related illness. A few degrees worth of warming Thursday with higher dewpoints may challenge our Heat Advisory criteria, particularly throughout portions of the Hudson River Valley, but confidence is low in this element of the forecast. In fact, the latest LREF indicates a less than 10% chance for heat indices greater than or equal to 95F Thursday. Seasonable to just above seasonable warmth will then continue through the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 3... The next best opportunity for convection will be Thursday and potentially Friday as a series of boundaries track through the region. There continues to be some uncertainty pertaining to the timing of the boundary progressions. However, at this time, the best opportunity for thunderstorms looks to be Thursday as clouds may limit our instability for Friday. And while confidence is not yet high in the severe potential, medium-range guidance suggesting 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and 25-30kt of bulk shear hint at the potential for some organization of any developing storms. We will continue to monitor over the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thu...Skies continue to clear tonight with radiational fog already underway at KGFL with vis bouncing between MVFR and IFR. While ALB and PSF remain VFR, the low dew point depressions indicate fog will likely develop now through 08 UTC with IFR vis/cigs persisting for 1 to 3 hours before the morning sun burns it off. Less confidence at POU where clouds have lingered so only show a TEMPO group for IFR vis/cigs from 07 - 11 UTC. Then, high pressure today will quickly result in clearing conditions and VFR conditions returning by 12 - 13 UTC. Winds will remain light and variable through the end of the TAF period at all sites. Additional fog may redevelop again tonight, highest confidence at GFL, given increasing humidity and mainly clear skies once again. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday to Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIGWX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...31