FXUS61 KALY 090603 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 203 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the southern Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon for a few storms that could become severe. Primary hazards are strong winds and heavy downpours. 2) Heat and humidity build back in for eastern New York and western New England tomorrow into Friday for minor heat-related impacts. After a return to seasonal temperatures for this weekend, another warming trend begins next week with minor to moderate heat- related impacts. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Based on latest forecast trends, scattered rain showers return tomorrow afternoon through Friday morning across eastern New York and western New England. A few thunderstorms could develop ahead of an approaching cold front where some could become severe with damaging winds and heavy downpours being the primary hazards. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to support a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the southern Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon. Then for Friday, a few non-severe thunderstorms could develop before the cold front moves through the Greater Capital Region and the Mid-Hudson Valley. Primary hazards are strong winds associated with any thunderstorms. Continue to monitor the latest forecast with any changes. KEY MESSAGE 2... Humid conditions return tomorrow into Friday as the surface high pressure system heads east and a low pressure system arrives over the Great Lakes region. Associated with this weather system is warmer than normal temperatures with highs forecasted to range in the low 80s for higher terrain locations to low 90s for valleys before a cold front moves through Friday night bringing relief from the heat and humidity for this weekend. Based on latest forecast trends, feels-like temperatures range in the low to mid-90s for valley locations. For the Mid-Hudson Valley, forecast confidence remains steady on not reaching heat advisory criteria as more than 2 hours are needed for feels-like temperatures above 95 degrees. While it could be reached for one hour, the impacts remain minor for those more extremely susceptible to the heat and without cooling. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks when working outdoors during peak heating hours. Beginning early next week, we continue to monitor potential minor to moderate heat-related impacts as temperatures have medium chances to climb into the mid-90s for valley locations. Feels-like temperatures could climb into the upper 90s if humid conditions returns. Keep up to date on the latest forecast as we get closer to next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z FRI...VFR conditions begin the TAF cycle with mainly clear skies as high pressure slides southeast of the region. Clear skies combined with light winds should support some radiative fog but it likely will not be as widespread as yesterday morning. Highest confidence for fog and IFR vis/cigs is for KGFL mainly from 06 - 12 UTC. There is a low chance that a subtle boundary lifting towards I-90 results in a few isolated light showers and low stratus for ALB and PSF from 10 to 14 UTC. We included a TEMPO for MVFR vis/cigs at ALB with IFR vis at PSF given potential for fog. Less confidence for fog at POU so only included a TEMPO for MVFR vis. Any fog and low stratus should burn off/lift quickly 12-14 UTC with VFR conditions returning. A prefrontal sfc trough approaches by late afternoon from the west, resulting in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms between 19 UTC and 03 UTC for all terminals. We used PROB30 groups to highlight this potential. A few scattered showers likely linger overnight asthe boundary continues to slowly press towards I-90 but confidence remains low on exact location and duration of any showers. Thus, show VFR conditions returning for all terminals with mid-level stratus. Light/calm winds through early this morning then increase from the south/southwest ranging 5 to 9kts by 15 - 17 UTC. Any thunderstorms can produce variable winds with gusts 30-35KT, even stronger should a severe storm develop. Winds remain west- southwest overnight ranging 4 to 8kts. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...31