FXUS61 KALY 161804 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 204 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk slightly northward to encompass the Mohawk Valley, all of the Capital Region and most of southern VT. The Slight Risk area has been slightly expanded north to include portions of Greene/Columbia counties. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, showers, and a few thunderstorms to the region today. Continued gusty and unseasonably chilly conditions are expected tonight into Saturday. A coating of snow is possible in the high terrain late tonight into Saturday morning. 2) Dry weather with temperatures moderating to near seasonable levels Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong cold front will approach from the west today as low pressure tracks into the St. Lawrence River Valley. For early this morning, a warm front will approach from the southwest with bands of rain passing through ahead of the front at the leading edge of a strengthening low level jet. Strong forcing and some elevated instability will allow for some locally heavy downpours and rumbles of thunder to occur toward and shortly after daybreak, especially across the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks, Capital/Saratoga and Lake George Region into southern VT. Rainfall rates of 0.25-0.50"/hour could lead to some ponding of water in poor drainage areas for the morning commute in these areas. As the low level jet translates overhead around and shortly after daybreak, strong south to southeast winds will be possible across portions of the Capital Region and within some north/south oriented valleys. Latest REFs suggest some gusts of 30-40 mph could occur in these areas through mid morning before decreasing as the core of the low level jet passes by and weakens. As the cold front approaches from the west during the afternoon hours, some surface-based destabilization should occur, especially if some breaks of sun can develop. Latest HREFs and REFs suggest SB CAPES of 100-250 J/kg developing for areas mainly south of I-90. Strengthening mid level winds will allow 0-6 km shear to increase to 50-60 KT amid this instability, parallel to the incoming front. This suggests the possibility of a low topped line of showers/thunderstorms to develop which could produce a few instances of damaging wind gusts. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms northward, now encompassing much of the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and southern VT, with the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) expanding just slightly north into portions of Greene/Columbia counties. Even in the absence of convection, as the front passes through, some brief wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible this evening. In the wake of the front, blustery conditions will develop tonight and continue into Saturday with northwest winds gusting 25-35 mph, perhaps a bit stronger Saturday morning as mixing deepens. Some lingering moisture in the wake of the front, partially from Lake Effect, will allow for some snow showers across higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT late tonight into Saturday morning, where some coatings to less than one half inch of snow accumulation will be possible. A few flurries/sprinkles could even occur across the eastern Catskills, the Berkshires, and at lower elevations such as the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region Saturday morning. High temperatures Saturday should only reach the 30s to lower 40s across higher elevations, with mainly 40s for valley regions. Combined with brisk winds, wind chill temperatures ("feels-like" temperatures) will be in the 20s/lower 30s for higher terrain, and 30s in valleys through much of theday. KEY MESSAGE 2... After an unseasonably cold morning Sunday with low temps mainly in the 20s, temperatures should moderate into the 50s for most areas by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to moderate to seasonable levels early next week with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s in valleys. Generally dry conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z/Saturday...Conditions vary amongst the terminals this afternoon as visible satellite shows some breaks in a largely MVFR stratus deck, forcing isolated VFR conditions, with some scattered IFR heights throughout the region. Latest scans of the ENX radar indicate the significant breaking apart of what was formerly a pre-cold frontal rainband with little threat to impact any of the terminal domains within the next couple of hours. Winds are somewhat variable (southeast to southwest directions) ahead of the incoming cold front, with sustained speeds ranging from about 3 to 11 kt with occasional gusts between 20 to 30 kt at ALB and PSF. While eastward-translating breaks in cloud coverage could allow for additional, brief improvements in ceiling heights over the next couple of hours, the further encroachment of the cold front should reinforce the holes and force the return to consistent MVFR and possible IFR conditions. Additional batches of showers closer accompanying the cold front are beginning to fill into central New York and could impact terminals between 19-00z this afternoon and evening. However, because of the latest trends in the guidance and radar scans, confidence has become lower in the occurrence of showers at ALB, POU, and PSF. These sites were therefore given PROB30s to account for the potential of additional showers while GFL has a TEMPO given enough confidence in brief showers given their proximity to the eastern-most Great Lake. Once the cold front rips through this afternoon and this evening, fairly swift improvements to VFR ceiling heights are expected for all except PSF which could hang on to an MVFR ceiling longer into the overnight. Winds will also become very breezy behind the front, taking on a westerly and then northwesterly direction, with sustained speeds reaching 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt by the end of the 18z cycle. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24/35 AVIATION...12