FXUS64 KAMA 091744
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Hot temperatures continue to hold for the Panhandles with
  potential to see triple-digit temperatures this afternoon.
 
- Late afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances continue today
  through Sat night. Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts
  cannot be ruled out. 

- A dry and hot pattern may return next week with high pressure
  looking to settle over the Central and Northern Great Plains. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Hot temperatures under a mid to upper level ridge are expected to 
continue today and tomorrow. Mid level moisture along with upper 
level disturbances in the ridge are expected to introduce late 
afternoon into evening thunderstorm chances. For today though, a 
bit of negative H7 theta-e advection is progged for the southern 
TX Panhandle potentially taking away a shot for areas in the 
southern FA to get any rainfall. For the OK Panhandle and northern
TX Panhandle, where better moisture will exist, could potentially
see CAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/Kg. This could allow 
stronger and higher updrafts to develop and collapse with little 
shear to work with. This is adding an increased threat for 
damaging wind gusts compared to last evening. Still not expecting 
much in way of beneficial rainfall under this pattern. CAMs are 
looking less excited, especially for counties east of the far 
western stack of counties in the Panhandles. 

While Thursday had previously looked better for PoPs across much of 
the FA, it is now Friday that is looking to be the better day. 
Once again, highs are expected to be in the upper 90s with the 
usual warm spots hitting the 100-104 degree range Friday afternoon.
Mid- level moisture is expected to stay in the northern combined 
Panhandles, pretty much areas north of I-40. This area is 
expected to have a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts once 
again as better instability will be for storms to strengthen and
unleash a good amount of rain into high DCAPE areas. Shear is 
expected to be slightly better, however, the hail risk is still in
question with such warm temperatures aloft in the middle of 
summer. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Another round of slight chance to chance PoPs exists 
Sat night as the pattern continues with subtle variations. Pops 
drop off after Sat night with a bit of upper level ridge 
suppression. This will allow the combined Panhandles to come under
southeasterly winds at the surface. Leading to increasing Tds and
not has high afternoon temperatures Mon into Wed. However, still 
seeing highs progged in the 90s. Though the NBM is not giving very
much in way of PoPs Sunday night onward, would not rule out 
slight changes in the rain forecast as those days get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 18Z TAF
period. The only exception would be the potential for TS
conditions at KDHT/KGUY between 00Z and 06Z. VCTS conditions noted
for KDHT, with a PROB30 group also for KGUY between 00-03Z for TS
potential. VFR conditions should return by 06Z and remain
throughout the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be westerly,
backing to southerly and then southeasterly/easterly towards the
end of the TAF period at 10-20 kts.  

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...29