FXUS63 KAPX 090403 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1203 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain and isolated strong storms through Thursday. - Significant heat and humidity builds once again by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Deep moisture will overspread northern Michigan tonight into Thursday as several mid level shortwaves ride along a quasi- stationary frontal boundary layed out across central Wisconsin into northern Michigan. Enhanced low level convergence along this boundary will provide the potential for locally heavy rains. The front will eventually sag south of the area, setting northern Michigan up for a mainly dry weekend. Significant heat and humidity build early next week as high amplitude ridging strengthens over the center of the CONUS. A myriad of model solutions tonight, largely influenced by convective evolution during the day and residual boundaries. Tonight likely features the best combination of moisture and forcing for heavy rain and possibly localized flooding with PWATs surging toward 200% of normal. Forecast soundings show deep moisture through the column, warm layer cloud depths to 12k+ and skinny CAPE - overall a favorable look for heavy rain. The activity tonight will be a very efficient heavy rain producer and we will have to watch for possible flooding in any areas with antecedent high soil moistures from recent rains (Leelanau County through the Tip of the Mitt). Later tonight into Thursday, a surface low will ride along the boundary draped across the area, further enhancing rain potential and slowing any southward drift of the front. The shower and storm chances continue on Thursday, with a slow southward shift in focus as the aforementioned boundary slowly sinks southward. Although only marginal instability through Thursday, a few stronger storms will be possible with gusty winds the main threat (due to precipitation loading). A nice summer weekend shaping up for northern Michigan with mainly dry conditions and highs in the 80s. Generally comfortable humidity levels as well, with a slight rise in surface dewpoints by Sunday as moisture begins to work back into the Great Lakes. A washed out frontal boundary on Sunday could be the focusing mechanism for a shower or storm but most of that appears to remain north of our area. More significant heat returns early next week as a large amplitude ridge builds to our west. Rising humidity will accompany the heat, with heat indices likely pushing well into the 90s (or higher). Some of the warmest temperatures for the week may occur early in the week, where the mid level cap will be strongest and convective development limited (much like occurred a week ago). The cap breaks down by midweek and "ridge runner" convective complexes will be possible across the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mainly light showers have spread across northern Michigan this evening and will continue at times tonight. MVFR VSBYs are being observed across some locations (including MBL) and will be possible into Thursday morning. Flight conditions will continue to degrade as the environment moistens overnight, dropping CIGs to IFR/LIFR for most areas into Thursday. Additional showers and a few storms are expected into Thursday afternoon. Flight conditions look to gradually improve through the day, likely becoming VFR for all TAF sites Thursday evening. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JK AVIATION...DJC