FXUS63 KAPX 090541
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1247 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through the day today. Locally
  heavy rain the main concern.

- Warming trend this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Rainfall has been a little lackluster Wednesday night, despite the 
abundant moisture. The night is still young though with upstream 
activity beginning to increase in coverage to some extent. 
Nevertheless, expect an uptick in activity this morning and through 
the afternoon, driven by a frontal boundary sagging south, 
increasing daytime instability, and a passing trough axis. With 
anomalous column moisture in place and respectable instability 
(especially south of M-32), thunderstorms have the potential to 
produce locally heavy rainfall. Any better-organized storms that 
train over the same or sensitive areas could produce localized 
flooding. Deep-layer shear values remain relatively tame, and 
largely skinny CAPE profiles should limit the severe weather 
potential, though a robust storm or two is not out of the question 
due to the increasing heights aloft (>6km) and precipitation 
loading. Activity will wane this evening and overnight as the axis 
of anomalous moisture drifts south with the advancing frontal 
boundary. A quiet Friday is expected, with temperatures near or a 
few degrees below seasonal averages behind this boundary.

A piece of energy or two riding the northwest flow—on the outer
periphery of a building and eastward-migrating upper-level 
high—will swing through northern Michigan this weekend with 
little impact. The region will enter a warming trend, however, 
as heights steadily rise. Surface high pressure will build (or 
attempt to build) northeastward into Minnesota, bringing 
anomalously high heights aloft over northern Michigan. 
Consequently, temperatures will continue to rise early next 
week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Precipitation 
chances during this period will remain low, as long as the high
pressure dominates the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Mainly light showers have spread across northern Michigan this 
evening and will continue at times tonight. MVFR VSBYs are being 
observed across some locations (including MBL) and will be possible 
into Thursday morning. Flight conditions will continue to degrade as 
the environment moistens overnight, dropping CIGs to IFR/LIFR for 
most areas into Thursday. Additional showers and a few storms are 
expected into Thursday afternoon. Flight conditions look to 
gradually improve through the day, likely becoming VFR for all TAF 
sites Thursday evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...DJC